Goods Trade Barometer 19 August 2020

Goods barometer confirms steep drop in trade but hints at nascent recovery
Goods trade barometer
Index value, June 2020 Index history, trend = 100

110

105

100

95

90

85 Goods trade barometer

World merchandise trade volume
80
2011M01
2011M07
2012M01
2012M07
2013M01
2013M07
2014M01
2014M07
2015M01
2015M07
2016M01
2016M07
2017M01
2017M07
2018M01
2018M07
2019M01
2019M07
2020M01
The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer provides real-time information on the trajectory of world trade relative to recent trends.
The current reading of 84.5 is 15.5 points below the baseline value of 100 for the index and down 18.6 points year-on-year. It
is broadly consistent with the WTO's June trade forecast update, which estimated an 18.5% drop in merchandise trade
volumes in Q2. It had also projected that the expected trade decline for the whole of 2020 would be closer to the less
pessimstic forecast made in April of -13% and unlikely to reach worst-case outcomes.

World merchandise trade volume

6.0 158 Global trade growth has been slowing since the fourth
5.0 4.6 157 quarter of 2018, finally turning negative in 2019Q3.
4.0 3.5 3.7
156 The seasonally-adjusted volume of world merchandise
3.0 155 trade was already down 3.0% year-on-year in the first
2.0 1.6
1.1 154 quarter of 2020, a decline that only partly reflects the
1.0 0.3 153 effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. The full economic
0.0 152 impact of the virus and associated containment efforts
-1.0 -0.3 151 are expected to be seen statistics for the second
-0.9
-2.0 150 quarter. If the WTO's June estimate of an 18.5% year-
-3.0 149 on-year decline in world trade for Q2 is realised, that
-3.0
-4.0 148 would imply a 14% drop between the first and second
2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1
quarters.
Year-on-year % change, left

Seasonally Adjusted Index 2005=100, right

Drivers of goods trade

Component index values, trend = 100

Jun 2020 May 2019

All of the barometer's component indices remain well
below trend, with many registering record lows, but
Export orders 88.4
some have begun to stabilize. Indices for automotive
Automotive 71.8
products (71.8) and air freight (76.5) are by far the
products worst on record since 2007. Container shipping (86.9)
Container 86.9 also remains deeply depressed. Export orders (88.4)
shipping
show signs of recovery as this index has turned
Air freight (IATA) 76.5
upward. Meanwhile, indices for electronic
Electronic 92.8
components (92.8) and agricultural raw materials
components (92.5) have held up relatively well.
Raw materials 92.5
 100
130
100
130
100
130

70
70
70
2011M01 2011M01 2011M01

Source: ISL.
2011M07 2011M07 2011M07

Source: TDM.
2012M01 2012M01 2012M01

Export orders
2012M07 2012M07 2012M07

(Index, trend = 100)

(Index, trend = 100)
(Index, trend = 100)

Source: IHS Markit.

2013M01 2013M01 2013M01
2013M07 2013M07 2013M07
Component indices

Electronic components
2014M01 2014M01 2014M01
2014M07 2014M07 2014M07

Container port throughput

2015M01 2015M01 2015M01
2015M07 2015M07 2015M07
2016M01 2016M01 2016M01
2016M07 2016M07 2016M07
2017M01 2017M01 2017M01
2017M07 2017M07 2017M07
2018M01 2018M01 2018M01
2018M07 2018M07 2018M07
2019M01 2019M01 2019M01
2019M07 2019M07 2019M07
2020M01

92.8
2020M01

86.9
2020M01
88.4

100
130
100
130
100
130

70
70
70

2011M01 2011M01 2011M01

2011M07 2011M07 2011M07
Source: IATA.

Source: TDM.
2012M01 2012M01 2012M01

of Statistics China.
2012M07 2012M07 2012M07

(Index, trend = 100)

(Index, trend = 100)
(Index, trend = 100)

2013M01 2013M01 2013M01

2013M07 2013M07 2013M07
2014M01 2014M01 2014M01
2014M07 2014M07 2014M07

Agricultural raw materials

2015M01 2015M01 2015M01
International air freight (IATA)

2015M07 2015M07 2015M07

Automobile production and sales

2016M01 2016M01 2016M01

2016M07 2016M07 2016M07
2017M01 2017M01 2017M01
2017M07 2017M07 2017M07
2018M01 2018M01 2018M01
2018M07 2018M07 2018M07
2019M01 2019M01 2019M01
2019M07 2019M07 2019M07

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, ACEA, JAMA, National Bureau
2020M01

92.5
2020M01
71.8

2020M01
76.5
Notes

Data on international air freight courtesy of the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Air
freight has proved to be a very timely indicator of overall world trade and an early signal of turning
points in recessions. Further information and analysis available here:
Background: http://www.iata.org/publications/economic-briefings/Air_freight_and_world_trade.pdf
IATA
IATA Quarterly Analysis:http://www.iata.org/freight-
Monthly Analysis: http://www.iata.org/cargochartbook
monthly-analysis

Other sources: WTO Secretariat for quarterly merchandise trade volume, TDM Trade Data Monitor database for electronic
components and agricultural raw materials, Institute for Shipping Economics and Logistics for container throughput. Export
orders from IHS-Markit Global PMI.

Details on the methodology of the trade outlook indicator are available on the WTO website at the following address:
https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news19_e/Goods Trade Barometer Methodology 17.08.20.pdf

Short-term WTO trade statistics (quarterly and monthly) can be obtained here:
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/short_term_stats_e.htm

The WTO issues a separate semi-annual trade forecasts projecting trade growth over two years. The latest release
is available for download here:
https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr858_e.htm