MATH 203, Fall 2019

Tutorial 9
Problem set

1. Two players, alternately and independently flip a coin and the first player to obtain a head
wins. Assume player A flips first.

a) If the coin is fair, what is the probability that player A wins?

b) Suppose the P(head) = p, not necessarily 12 . What is the probability that A wins?
c) Show that for all p, 0 < p < 1, P(“A wins”) > 12 . (Hint: Try to write P(“A wins”) in
terms of events E1 , E2 , . . . , where Ei = {“Head first appears on i-th toss”}).

2. In a particular population of men and women, 92% of females are right handed, while 88%
of men are right handed. Indicate whether each of the following statements is i)TRUE,
ii)FALSE or iii) Can’t be decided on teh basis of information given

a) The overall proportion of right handers in the population is exactly 90%

b) The overall proportion of right handers in the population is between 88% and 92%
c) If the sex ratio in the population is 1-to-1 then a) is true
d) If a) is true then the sex ratio in the population is 1-to-1
e) If there are at least 3 times as many women as there are men in the population, then
the overall population of right handers is at least 91%

3. Let
 X be a random variable which is Poisson distributed with parameter λ. Show that
E X = λ. Hint: Recall that

x2 x3 x4
ex = 1 + x + + + + ...
2! 3! 4!

4. A man with n keys tries to open the door by choosing a key at random each try. Only a
single key in his key chain opens the door. Find the mean number of attempts if:
a) Unsuccessful keys are not eliminated from further selection
b) Unsuccessful keys are eliminated
5. A certain town is served by two hospitals. In the larger hospital about 45 babies are born
each day, and in the smaller hospital 15 babies are born each day. Although the overall
proportion of boys is about 50 percent, the actual proportion at either hospital may be
more or less than 50 percent on any day. At the end of a year, which hospital will have the
greater number of days on which more than 60 percent of the babies born were boys?

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Tutorial 9 MATH 203

a) the large hospital

b) the small hospital
c) neither - the number of days will be about the same.

Assume that the probability that a baby is a boy is .5 (actual estimates make this more like
.513). Decide, by simulation, what the right answer is to the question. Can you suggest
why many people go wrong on this question?

6. In the previous problem, we considered a town with two hospitals. In the large hospital
about 45 babies are born each day, and in the smaller hospital about 15 babies are born
each day. We were interested in guessing which hospital would have on the average the
largest number of days with the property that more than 60 percent of the children born
on that day are boys. For each hospital find the expected number of days in a year that
have the property that more than 60 percent of the children born on that day were boys.