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Astral Poly Tech
Astral Poly Tech
Astral Poly Tech
3
www.safalniveshak.com
IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea
2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these numbers are
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Ste
Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (
growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.
Conclusion
Never Forget
Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.
Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.
Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.
Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.
Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company, look
at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of operations
for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.
Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.
Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings
and strong return on equity in the past.
Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.
That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing significant
volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.
Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.
Net Block 109 164 215 289 557 645 741 842 1,105 1,255
Capital Work in Progress 13 13 12 8 27 15 25 73 81 44
Investments - - - - - - - - 0 0
Other Assets 209 303 317 397 582 641 695 759 913 990
Total 330 480 544 694 1,165 1,301 1,462 1,675 2,099 2,289
Working Capital 74 101 107 160 238 245 310 292 294 394
Debtors 78 103 106 145 233 227 339 307 339 228
Inventory 87 127 150 195 266 277 272 357 397 540
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,618
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports
Debtor Days 71 67 48 50 60 49 65 54 49 32
Inventory Turnover 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 5
Fixed Asset Turnover 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.7 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.1
Debt/Equity 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
Return on Equity 22% 21% 25% 25% 13% 14% 17% 17% 16% 17%
Return on Capital Employed 20% 22% 24% 24% 13% 15% 15% 16% 15% 17%
Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD
Rs Cr Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Trailing
Sales 402 565 802 1,057 1,410 1,678 1,895 2,073 2,507 2,578 2,375
% Growth YOY 41% 42% 32% 33% 19% 13% 9% 21% 3%
Expenses 347 482 687 902 1,242 1,471 1,634 1,759 2,126 2,137 1,974
Material Cost (% of Sales) 74% 77% 75% 76% 73% 73% 69% 68% 67% 65% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% expense items. For manufacturing firms,
Other Mfr. Exp 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 8% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Operating Profit 55 83 115 155 168 207 260 314 381 441 402
Operating Profit Margin 14% 15% 14% 15% 12% 12% 14% 15% 15% 17% 17%
Other Income 1 4 2 2 3 -3 9 13 15 12 9
Other Income as % of Sales 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4%
Depreciation 11 14 18 22 36 42 50 57 81 108 112
Interest 4 23 19 31 25 30 18 22 32 39 38
Interest Coverage(Times) 10 3 5 4 5 5 12 12 10 9 8
Profit before tax (PBT) 41 50 80 105 110 132 201 248 283 306 261
% Growth YOY 21% 60% 31% 5% 20% 53% 24% 14% 8%
PBT Margin 10% 9% 10% 10% 8% 8% 11% 12% 11% 12% 11%
Tax 9 11 19 25 31 30 56 72 86 57 39
Net profit 33 39 61 79 78 102 145 176 197 250 222
% Growth YOY 20% 55% 30% -1% 30% 42% 22% 12% 27%
Net Profit Margin 8% 7% 8% 8% 6% 6% 8% 8% 8% 10% 9%
EPS 2.3 2.8 4.4 5.7 5.3 6.8 9.7 11.7 13.2 16.6 14.7
% Growth YOY 20% 55% 30% -7% 29% 42% 22% 12% 26%
Price to earning 9.1 11.0 13.4 32.9 67.8 48.4 45.4 60.9 70.6 56.6 76.2
Price 21 31 58 186 358 330 438 715 930 937 1,124
Dividend Payout 7.7% 6.4% 4.6% 4.6% 5.9% 4.7% 5.0% 4.1% 4.3% 6.1%
Market Cap 300 436 816 2,610 5,303 4,933 6,559 10,696 13,924 14,118
Retained Earnings 30 37 58 76 74 97 137 168 189 234
Buffett's $1 Test 12.6
Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to
10 years) growth numbers.
Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 74% 77% 75% 76% 73% 73% 69% 68% 67% 65%
Change in Inventory 0% 4% 3% 3% -1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 3%
Power and Fuel 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3%
Other Mfr. Exp 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Employee Cost 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7%
Selling and Admin Cost 8% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Other Expenses -2% -3% -2% -1% -1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Operating Profit 14% 7% 9% 9% 14% 9% 13% 13% 12% 12%
Other Income 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%
Depreciation 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4%
Interest 1% 4% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Profit Before Tax 10% 9% 10% 10% 8% 8% 11% 12% 11% 12%
Tax 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2%
Net Profit 8% 7% 8% 7% 5% 6% 8% 8% 8% 10%
Dividend Amount 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
er 5-7 years
P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as th
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history
business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of r
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai
Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 173.8 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 13.1 Long-Term Growth Rate
Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 6,020 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 16,933 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)
EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10
173.8
8.5
26.1
10,562
16,933
of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD
Final Calculations
Terminal Year (3,619)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows (11,133)
Terminal Value (11,652)
Total PV of Cash Flows (22,785)
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 16,933
META
Number of shares 15.07
Face Value 1
Current Price 1123.85
Market Capitalization 16933.22
Quarters
Report Date Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19
Sales 638.82 477 625.4 630.2 774.7 606.6
Expenses 521.53 399.7 531.8 536.5 658.6 513.7
Other Income 2.26 3.9 4.5 4 3.8 6.8
Depreciation 15.19 16.1 20.9 22.1 22.4 24.4
Interest 9.07 11.70 13.50 0.80 5.90 7.30
Profit before tax 95.29 53.4 63.7 74.8 91.6 68
Tax 29.97 15.7 18.6 22.6 29.1 20.2
Net profit 65.32 37.4 44.5 51.9 62.2 47.1
Operating Profit 117.29 77.3 93.6 93.7 116.1 92.9
BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Equity Share Capital 11.24 11.24 11.24 11.24 11.84 11.98
Reserves 136.4 172.83 230.14 304.08 606.94 696.38
Borrowings 47.87 93.84 92.29 141.95 202.64 196.56
Other Liabilities 134.52 202.46 210.55 237.1 343.89 396.53
Total 330.03 480.37 544.22 694.37 1165.31 1301.45
Net Block 108.54 164.04 214.96 289.3 556.84 645.08
Capital Work in Progress 12.73 12.96 11.99 8.2 26.83 14.94
Investments
Other Assets 208.76 303.37 317.27 396.87 581.64 641.43
Total 330.03 480.37 544.22 694.37 1165.31 1301.45
Receivables 77.93 103.16 106.29 145.08 232.72 227.12
Inventory 86.93 127.06 150.47 194.97 265.55 277.32
Cash & Bank 10.23 35.51 11.52 0.96 11.52 49.92
No. of Equity Shares 22476112 22476112 22476112 56190280 118365079 119750283
New Bonus Shares
Face value 5 5 5 2 1 1
CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Cash from Operating Activity 48.32 85.11 64.8 67.43 116.98 225.75
Cash from Investing Activity -37.67 -67.98 -66.51 -91.13 -343.49 -202.92
Cash from Financing Activity -4.71 8.15 -22.28 13.14 237.07 15.65
Net Cash Flow 5.94 25.28 -23.99 -10.56 10.56 38.48
DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.80 14.97
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET
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