2011 Electrical Insulation Conference, Annapolis, Maryland, 5 to 8 June 2011
Statistical analysis of subcomponent failures in power
transformers
Lukasz Chmura, P.H.F. Morshuis, E.Gulski,
J.J. Smit
Delft University of Technology
Delft, The Netherlands
L.a.chmura@tudelft.nl
Abstract—The transformers are very complex devices, consisting
of different subcomponents e.g. winding, tap changer, bushing
etc. During operation, all of the subcomponents are stressed and
subjected to aging. When the aging reaches certain level, the
subcomponent may fail. By application of statistical tools it is
possible to investigate the failure occurrence in transformers.
That means, that by fitting the mathematical model to the data,
the parameters of the transformers’ population can be estimated.
By doing so, it is possible to see what is the stage of life of
transformers, and what can be expected in terms of coming
failures. However for a proper analysis, it is important to know
how to deal with failures that do not seem to follow the statistical
distribution chosen. Such outliers may affect the analysis
considerably. In the paper, the influence of the outliers on the
results of expected failures is presented. The latter is very
important for the utility, as such information can be used as an
additional information when deciding about replacement of
transformers. Also, when deciding about spare transformers,
knowledge about failure expectation is very valuable.
Keywords-statistical analysis of failures, failure estimation,
power transformer, outliers.
I. INTRODUCTION
Considering reliability of the power network, transformers
constitute one of the most important components of the
network. . This is due to the fact that they are one of the most
expensive components in the network, failed transformers are
difficult to repair, and outage costs are very high. Due to the
costs the redundancy of transformers is limited, leading to a
certain criticality for the electricity supply. In this way it can be
stated that reliable operation of the power network is highly
dependent on the reliability of transformers. Also replacement
is costly. Thus any replacement has to be technically and
economically justified. In failures of transformers, failures of
different subcomponents can be distinguished. The failures of
different subcomponents can have different failure modes such
as insulation aging or random failures; from the point of view
of life management of population of transformers, aging has to
be distinguished from random failures. Triggered by two major
failures of 110kV transformers which occurred within the
group of transformer belonging to Liander, the detailed
investigation into transformers reliability is made. The failures
led to the explosion of and damage of transformers. This
created concerns about the transmission network reliability.
978-1-4577-0279-2/11/$26.00
978-1-4577-0276-1/11/$26.00 ©2011 IEEE
Anton Janssen
Liander – The Network Operator
Arnhem, The Netherlands
Applying statistical analysis, the investigation into the
subcomponent failures processes is made. The in-service data
of the transformers, as well as the failure data are used as an
input for the analysis, all categorized according to the ratings.
In case of failure data, failures, failures of different
subcomponents are distinguished. Thus, using information
about failed transformers, and transformers that are still in
operation it is possible to fit a mathematical model and to
obtain the parameters of the failure probability distribution
versus age. By doing so it is possible to see in which period of
life the components are and what can be expected with respect
to future failures. In addition, during statistical analysis
failures can be found, which are exhibiting either very low or
very high values of time-to-failure in comparison with other
failures. In that way, they are affecting the parameters
estimation and so the result of failure expectation. Such
failures, which do not seem to follow well the statistical
distribution chosen, are called outliers, as they may not come
from the investigated population (e.g. wrong entry in the
records). However, each failure is valuable from statistical
point of view. Thus, a sufficient evidence is needed to reject
such failure. The procedure is given in detail in Fig.1.
Transformer
failure data
Subpopulation
of transformer
Statistical analysis
components Distribution fitting
Parameter estimation
Analytical functions
Transformer Subpopulation
in-service data on voltage Ages and Future failure
level reliability expectation
Decision
support
Figure 1. Handling of the data, used as an input for statistical analysis. [1]
II. IN-SERVICE POWER TRANSFORMERS
The analyzed population of power transformers consists of
110 kV and 150 kV transformers. The rated power is within the
range of 15 up to 175 MVA. The transformers were installed
between 1951 and 2011, so the age span is from 5 up to 60
216
years. In total, approximately 200 power transformers are in • Winding (short-circuit within the winding)
service. The number of power transformers installed in
particular years can be seen in Figure 2. From that figure can • Leakage (Problems with the tank)
be seen that majority of the transformers was installed before • Core (Problems with magnetic circuit)
the beginning of 1990’s. The average age of the power
transformer is 29 years. The population of power transformers • Other (e.g. temperature problems)
can be split into two major groups, according to the voltage
level:
In Fig.3. the relative contribution of the failures of different
• 150 kV transformers – Voltage levels: 150/50/10, subcomponents reported by Cigré is presented.
150/50, 150/20 and 150/10 kV
• 110 kV transformers – Voltage levels: 110/20 and Other
12%
110/10 kV
Leakage
18 13% Tap changer
Number of transformers installed

41%
16
14
12 Bus hings
12%
10
8 Core
3%
6 Windings
19%
4
2
0 Figure 3. Statistics of failures for different transformer subcomponents,
reported by Cigré.
51

62
65

68

71

74

77
80

84

87

91

94
97

00

03
19

19
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19
19

20

20

150 kV 110 kV Year of installation

Figure 2. Number of power transformers installed, given with the year of
installlation
The whole population of power transformers in split up into
110 and 150 kV transformers. Thus the investigation can be
made not only on the whole population of power transformers,
but also on the subpopulations according to the voltage level.
This is important because failure behavior may be different in
the whole population, than in the subpopulation. The result of
the analysis for the population and subpopulation may be used
as another factor when deciding about spare transformers for
the network.
B. Failure data of power trasformers from the utility
In the database of the utility, the information about failures
occurring in the past is available. The failure database contains
entries about failures from 1975 till now. In Fig.4., the failures
reported for the power transformers belonging to utility are
presented with the age at which the failure occurred, the
distinction has been made into the voltage groups according to
the voltage level. It must be also mentioned, that after some
failures, the transformer is lost. In other cases, when the results
of failure are not so severe, the transformer is put back into
service after long period of reparation. However, here, due to
limited failure data, such distinction has not been made.

III. FAILURES OF DIFFERENT COMPONENTS

The failures of transformers can be described by different
failure modes. This means that failures can be categorized
according to the component that failed.

A. International failure statistics

As mentioned, all failures can be assigned to the failures of
particular components. Thus, failure of the same components
can be grouped together in order to see which components are
the most critical according to the failure occurrence. Such
categorization is made by Cigré [2] and following groups of
failures can be distinguished:
Figure 4. Number of failures reported for power transformers, together with
• Tap changer (On-load and off-load tap changers) accompanyin age at the monment of failure.

• Bushing

217
Further on, all failures assigned to the power transformers can Probability - Weibull Failure Rate vs Time Plot
99,000 0,120
be divided according to the component that failed. This is done 90,000

Failure Rate, f(t)/R(t)

50,000 0,096
in similar way to Cigré [2].

Unreliability, F(t)
0,072
10,000
5,000
0,048
1,000
0,500 0,024

leakage 0,100 0,000

1,000 10,000 100,0 0,000 14,000 28,000 42,000 56,000 70,00
28% Time, (t) Time, (t)
β=3,2010567, η=71,1538769, ρ=0,9267091 β=3,2010567, η=71,1538769, ρ=0,9267091

Figure 6. 2-parameter Weibull cumulative density function (left) and failure

tap changer
short-circuit
rate function with 90% confidence bound fitted to the failure data of the whole
55%
population of power transformers.
6%
bushing Probability - Weibull Failure Rate vs Time Plot
99,000 0,120
11% 90,000
0,096

Failure Rate, f(t)/R(t)

50,000

Unreliability, F(t)
0,072
10,000
5,000
0,048
1,000
Figure 5. Statistics of failures reported for power transformers reported in 0,500 0,024
the database of the utility.
0,100 0,000
1,000 10,000 100,00 0,000 14,000 28,000 42,000 56,000 70,00
Time, (t) Time, (t)
A general remark has to be made about Fig.3 and Fig.5. β=2,1737056, η=45,2880995, γ=18,7875000, ρ=0,9857778 β=2,1737056, η=45,2880995, γ=18,7875000, ρ=0,9857778
Namely, the statistics of failures presented by Cigré consist of
around 750 failures and the number of failures reported for the Figure 7. 3-parameter Weibull CDF (left) and failure rate function with 90%
power transformers in the database of Liander is much lower confidence bound fitted to the data of power transformers, where point
(16). suspected to be outlier is rejected.

IV. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FAILURE AND IN-
SERVICE DATA
Firstly the whole population of power transformers is
analyzed. That means that all failures of different modes that
have occurred in 150 and 110 kV transformers are analyzed.
The subpopulation of 110 kV will not be analyzed due to the
fact that too low number of failures occurred for this type of
transformer (4 failures of different modes). Secondly, the
subpopulation of 150 kV will be investigated. In all cases the
influence of the outliers on the analysis will be presented.
A. The whole population of power transformers
For the whole population and an analysis will be made.
Regarding particular failure modes, the analysis of failures in
tap changers will be made. The number of failures for bushings
is insufficient to perform the analysis (only 2 failures) and
leakage is not interesting as can be detected during visual
inspection and has negligible effect on the operation of
transformer. As mentioned, in total 16 failures were reported
for power transformers. Fitting the statistical distribution to the
Rejection of the first point from Fig.6 will result in better fit
of 3-parameter Weibull distribution, with the parameters of
β=2.17, η=45 years and γ=19 years. The introduction of the
third parameter may be explained by the fact that no failures
occurred before the age of 20 years
1) Failures of tap changers occuring in the whole
population of power transformers
For the tap changers in the whole population of power
transformers, 8 failures are analyzed. Fitting 2-parameter
Weibull distribution will result in obtaining parameters β=2.36
and a characteristic life η=116 years. The details are presented
in Fig.8. Also here, the failure that occurred at the age of 9
years may be considered as outlier, with the confidence level of
99%. Rejection this point from the analysis will result in
obtaining 3-parameter Weibull distribution with the parameters
of β=1.56, η=99 years and γ=19 years. The introduction of the
third parameter may explained by the fact that no failure
occurred before the age of 20 years
Probability - Weibull Failure Rate vs Time Plot
99,000
0,032
90,000
Failure Rate, f(t)/R(t)

0,026
50,000
data results in obtaining 2-parameter Weibull distribution, with
Unreliability, F(t)

0,019
the parameters β=3,2 and η=71.15 years. However, when a 10,000
5,000
closer look is taken into the Fig.6. it can be noticed that the first 0,013

point is strongly influencing the distribution and is suspected to 1,000

0,500 0,006
be outlier. By performing Nutrella-Dixon [3] it was shown that
0,100 0,000
first point might be outlier with the confidence level higher 1,000 10,000 100,0 0,000 14,000 28,000 42,000 56,000 70,00
Time, (t) Time, (t)
than 99%. That means that the chance for the point of not being β=2,3616074, η=116,9047374, ρ=0,9529577 β=2,3616074, η=116,9047374, ρ=0,9529577
outlier is less than 1%.
Figure 8. 2-parameter Weibull CDF cumulative density function (left) and
failure rate function with 90% confidence bound fitted to the failure data of
tap changers in power transformers.

218
 Probability - Weibull Failure Rate vs Time Plot C. Summary
99,000 0,032
90,000
The detailed analysis of the whole population of power
50,000 0,026

Failure Rate, f(t)/R(t)

transformers reliability belonging to Liander has been made. In
Unreliability, F(t)

10,000 0,019 Table I, the values of particular B-lives and mean life are
5,000
0,013 presented for all subpopulations investigated. In all cases, the
1,000 influence of outliers is presented, i.e. the results are shown
0,500 0,006
when the outliers are included or rejected from the analysis.
0,100 0,000
1,000 10,000 100,0 0,000 14,000 28,000 42,000 56,000 70,00
Time, (t) Time, (t)
β=1,5604731, η=99,2344028, γ=19,3625000, ρ=0,99β=1,5604731, η=99,2344028, γ=19,3625000, ρ =0,99 TABLE I. VALUES OF B-LIFE AND MEAN LIFE OBTAINED DURING
ANALYSIS
Figure 9. 3-parameter Weibull CDF (left) and failure rate function with 90%
Power transformers
confidence bound fitted to the failure data of tap changers in power
transformers, where the point suspected to be outlier is rejected The whole population Tap changers
Outliers Included Rejected Included Rejected
B1 life 17 (13-23) 24 (22-27) 17 (11-25) 25 (22-29)
B. Subpopulation of 150 kV transformers
B10 life 35 (31-40) 35 (32-39) 45 (36-57) 43 (36-53)
For the subpopulation of 150 kV transformers, in total 12
Mean life 63 (53-77) 59 (51-68) 104 (66-160) 109 (67-177)
failures are analyzed. This includes 6 failures of tap changers, 5
150 kV transformers
leakages and one breakdown in bushing. Due to the negligible
The whole population Tap changers
effect on operation, leakages will not be investigated. As there
was only one breakdown in bushing, the tap changers will be Outliers Included Rejected Included Rejected
the only subpopulation investigated here. B1 life 15 (11-22) 24 (22-27) 16 (9-26) 25 (19-32)
B10 life 36 (30-42) 35 (31-40) 48 (35-65) 42 (37-48)
Probability - Weibull Failure Rate vs Time Plot
99,000 0,060 Mean life 71 (55-92) 70 (56-91) 124 (69-223) 64 (53-77)
90,000
Failure Rate, f(t)/R(t)

50,000 0,048
Unreliability, F(t)

0,036 Additionally the subpopulation of 150 kV transformers has

10,000
5,000 been created. For both, the whole population of power
0,024
1,000
transformers and 150 kV transformers, the occurrence of
0,500 0,012 failures in tap changers was analyzed. Thus a good insight into
0,100
1,000 10,000 100,0
0,000
0,000 14,000 28,000 42,000 56,000 70,00
failures occurrence was taken. Moreover, the influence of
Time, (t) Time, (t) outliers, i.e. the points that might not belong to the population
β =2,7861996, η=80,0259028, ρ=0,9448523 β=2,7861996, η=80,0259028, ρ=0,9448523 was investigated.
Figure 10. 2-parameter Weibull CDF cumulative density function (left) and Another important issue that is worth mentioning is so
failure rate function with 90% confidence bound fitted to the failure data of called B-life. This is the time, after which a certain part of the
150 kV transformers. population will fail. For the electrical devices, B10 life is often
used. In this case this is the time after which 10% of the
Firstly the whole population of 150 kV transformers is population will fail. In other word, this is time when the
investigated. Fitting 2-parameter Weibull distribution will reliability of the population will be 90% or the unreliability will
result in obtaining parameters of β=2.78 and η=80 years. On be 10%. The comparison of B-lives obtained during analysis.
the left part of the CDF it also can be noticed that first point As can be seen in above table, the values of particular B-lives
may be called outlier. Rejecting this point from the analysis are similar for power transformers and for subpopulation of
will result in obtaining 3-parameter Weibull distribution with 150 kV transformers. In both cases it can be noticed that
the parameters of β=1,74, η=57 years and γ=20 years. rejecting the outlier influenced the analysis, and the time to
Probability - Weibull Failure Rate vs Time Plot obtain the unreliability of 1% was prolonged. However, in the
99,000 0,070
90,000 case of B10 life, the respective values times are similar.
Failure Rate, f(t)/R(t)

50,000 0,056
Unreliability, F(t)

10,000 0,042 V. NUMBER OF EXPECTED FAILURES IN THE FUTURE

5,000
0,028
1,000
As presented in previous paragraphs, different ways were
0,500 0,014 followed to analyze the failure behavior of power transformers.
0,100
1,000 10,000 100,0
0,000 In each case, by using the failure rate and information about in-
0,000 14,000 28,000 42,000 56,000 70,00
Time, (t) Time, (t) service population it is possible to estimate the number of
β=1,7409417, η=57,1515328, γ=19,5925000, ρ=0,997β=1,7409417, η=57,1515328, γ=19,5925000, ρ=0,99761 expected failures in the future. The results of prediction are
presented in Fig.12 to Fig.15. In Fig.12, the influence of
Figure 11. 3-parameter Weibull CDF cumulative density function (left) and
failure rate function with 90% confidence bound fitted to the failure data of
outliers presence on the number of expected failures is also
150 kV transformers, where point suspected to be outlier is rejected. presented.

219
 5 As can be seen in Fig.12, 2 failures in coming year can be
expected. That means 3 failures within two coming years.
Number of expected failures

4 However, when the suspected point is rejected from the

3
analysis, the number of failures in coming year increases to 2.
When the population of 150 kV transformers is considered,
2 slightly less than 1 failure can be expected in coming year. For
150 kV transformers, rejecting the point suspected to be outlier,
1
will result in increase of number of expected failures up to 1,2
0
and will make the confidence bound wider. By comparing the
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 number of expected failures and the number of failures that
Years occurred in the past it can be stated that they display similar
Upper bound The whole population Lower bound
Upper bound Outliers removed Lower bound values.

Figure 12. Failure prediction for the whole population of power transformers. VI. CONCLUSIONS
When analyzing the expected failures the following can be
2
observed
Number of expected failures

• The number of failures will increase in time. Thus it

can be stated that they are a result of aging. This can be
1 also confirmed by the value of β which, in each case is
higher than 1.
• Despite the age of the transformers investigated, the
average failure rate is expected to increase. Over a
0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
period of ten years only from about 2 failures per year
Years to 2.8 failures per year, which, is still within 90%
Upper bound Tap changers - Outliers removed Lower bound confidence bounds in 2011.

Figure 13. Failure prediction for tap changers in power transformers

• The number of failures is comparable to that occurred
in the past. Additionally the influence of outliers was
investigated.
3

• The presence of outlier may have big influence on

Number of expected failures

failure number prediction as well as on the width of

2 confidence bounds.
• The outcome of the analysis can be used as additional
1
information regarding the spare transformers policy.

VII. REFERENCES
0 [1] R.A. Jongen, P.H.F. Morshuis, J.J. Smit, A.L.J. Janssen, E. Gulski, „A
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 statistical Approach to Processing Power Transformer Failure Data”
Years 19th International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED),
Upper bound 150 kV transformers - Outliers removed Lower bound Vienna, Austria, 21-24 May 2007
[2] A. Bossi, J.E. Dind, J.M. Frisson, U. Khoudiakov, H.F. Ligot et. al., „An
International Survey of Failures In Large Power Transformers In
Figure 14. Failure prediction for 150 kV transformers
Service”, Final Report of the CIGRE Working Group 12.05 Electra,
1983, no. 88, pp. 21-48
4
[3] D. Kececioglu, “Reliability and Life Testing Handbook” PTR Prentice
Number of expected failures

Hall Inc. New Jersey 1993. ISBN 0-13-772377-6

3

0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Years
Upper bound 150 kV tap changers - Outliers removed Lower bound

Figure 15. Failure prediction for the tap changers in 150 kV transformers

220