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Park 2012
Park 2012
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Keywords: This study investigated the effects of diversification on firm performance in the restaurant industry. In
Diversification strategy prior studies, the theoretical rationales and empirical results appeared to contradict each other. These
Profitability contradictory results may be due to factors such as industry-specific characteristics or a linear under-
Volatility
standing of the relationship between diversification strategies and firm performance. Thus, this study
Entropy measure
suggested a non-linear hypothesis based on the costs and benefits of diversification strategies with busi-
Restaurant firms
nesses categorized based on their level of diversification. The results of this study showed that restaurant
firms do not benefit from a low level of related diversification. This study also found that when restaurant
firms are involved in both related and unrelated businesses, the optimal mixed ratio of diversification
is approximately half and half. More detailed results, as well as academic and practical implications, are
discussed in this paper.
© 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction pointed out that prior researchers have overlooked industry struc-
ture (e.g., industry competition, concentration, growth rate, and
Corporate diversification strategies establish the scope of a profitability). This suggests that the performance of diversifica-
firm’s business activities and contribute to a firm’s performance tion strategies depends on the performance of the target industry.
(Hofer and Schendel, 1978; Porter, 1987). Since Rumelt (1974, Thus, when the primary and diversifying target industry character-
1982), the relationship between diversification and performance istics are neglected, the projected performance of a diversification
(hereafter, DP) has frequently been investigated by strategic man- strategy could be misleading. Further, although there are benefits
agement researchers. Despite improvements in various aspects of to diversification there are also costs associated with diversifica-
DP studies, the theoretical rationales and empirical results remain tion, such as transaction costs (Jones and Hill, 1988) and a loss of
contradictory and the actual effects of diversification strategies efficiency and control (Markides, 1992; Rajan et al., 2000; Meyer
remain ambiguous at best. In the realm of hospitality academia et al., 1992). Thus, a non-linear relationship may exist between
several researchers have initialized diversification studies (Lee and diversification and firm performance. Finally, few studies have
Jang, 2007; Jang and Tang, 2009; Tang and Jang, 2010). However, investigated the optimal mixed ratio of related and unrelated diver-
they focused on either within-industry diversification or geograph- sification when firms are involved in both related and unrelated
ical diversification. Little research has been done within hospitality businesses.
academia on the effects of market diversification. Thus, this study Consequently, the purpose of this study is to examine the
examined the relationship between diversification and firm per- non-linear relationship between diversification strategy and firm
formance from the perspective of market diversification in the performance in the restaurant industry. Specifically, the objec-
restaurant industry. tives of this study are: (1) to examine the effects of diversification
Rumelt’s (1974, 1982) proposition that related diversification on accounting profitability and risk (volatility) of profitability
produces greater profits than unrelated diversification has gener- according to related and unrelated diversification in the restaurant
ally been accepted. It is also generally accepted that both related industry and (2) to investigate the optimal mixed ratio of related
and unrelated diversifications reduce profit volatility, with a larger and unrelated diversification.
risk reduction effect accompanying unrelated diversification. How-
ever, empirical studies have failed to validate these traditional 2. Literature review
conceptions of profitability and risk (volatility). Datta et al. (1991)
2.1. The definition of diversification and DP studies in hospitality
academia
∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 765 496 3610.
E-mail addresses: kmpark@sejong.ac.kr (K. Park), jang12@purdue.edu (S. Jang). Corporate diversification can be defined as businesses a corpo-
1
Tel.: +82 02 3408 3186. ration should be involved in (Pils, 2009) and describes the scope
0278-4319/$ – see front matter © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ijhm.2011.03.011
K. Park, S. Jang / International Journal of Hospitality Management 31 (2012) 218–228 219
of business activities (Hofer and Schendel, 1978; Porter, 1987). that are difficult for single business firms to achieve. Thus, prof-
However, various definitions of diversification have been used in itability can be enhanced by unrelated diversification strategies
previous studies. For instance, Ansoff (1957) first used the term (Scharfstein and Stein, 2000). Defenders of unrelated diversification
‘diversification’ to illustrate corporate growth strategies involving contend that firms utilizing related diversification have investment
entering new markets with a new product. On the other hand, options that are very similar to their current situation, but firms
Berry (1971) defined diversification as an increase in the number of utilizing unrelated diversification have a variety of investment
industries a business participates in. The term ‘market diversifica- options. Thus, unrelated diversification could be more profitable
tion’ is more specific because diversification could also be carried than related diversification because unrelated diversified firms are
out by entering new markets with present products or services in a better position to reduce the cost of capital and optimally invest
(Ansoff, 1957; Berry, 1971). Thus, diversification implies a firm (Hill and Snell, 1988).
moving into a number of markets (sectors, industries, or segments) Since Rumelt (1974, 1982), however, many empirical studies
it was not previously engaged in. Hereafter in this study the term have claimed that related diversification enhances profits more
diversification indicates market diversification. than unrelated diversification (Bettis, 1981; Lecraw, 1984; Lubatkin
The DP relationship has been frequently investigated in strate- and Rogers, 1989; Palepu, 1985). Bettis (1981) found that related
gic management but there has been little effort within hospitality diversification outperforms unrelated diversification by approxi-
academia to explore it. Singh and Gu (1994) failed to find any mately one to three points of return on assets. Along the same
differences in the operational performance of diversified hotel line, Palepu (1985) reported that profitability growth is signifi-
firms and undiversified firms. However, Lee and Jang (2007) cantly larger with related diversification as opposed to unrelated
found that within-industry diversification by hotel firms (diver- diversification. Lubatkin and Rogers (1989) also stated that related
sification into luxury, upscale, mid-priced, economy, or budget diversification has a tendency to produce better market returns
segments) improved the stability of their financial performance but than unrelated diversification. Nevertheless, Bass et al. (1977),
not accounting profits. Jang and Tang (2009) found that interna- Chatterjee (1986), Grinyer et al. (1980), and Ravenscraft (1983)
tional diversification has a moderating effect on the relationship could not find any evidence that related diversification offers more
between financial leverage and profitability in the hotel industry advantages than unrelated diversification. Consequently, the profit
and Tang and Jang (2010) stated that firm value discounts exist in superiority of related diversification is contradictory in terms of
association with international diversification. However, they also both its theoretical rationale and the empirical findings.
indicated that the relationship between international diversifica-
tion and excess value is curvilinear (U-shaped), suggesting that 2.3. Related diversification vs. unrelated diversification and risk
highly diversified hotel firms could still benefit from international (volatility) of profitability
diversification. However, the focus of Jang and Tang’s (2009) and
Tang and Jang’s (2010) studies was on geographic diversification, The impact of diversification strategies on risk is also contra-
not on market diversification. Thus far, prior hospitality research dictory. Researchers have generally accepted that diversification
has focused on only geographic diversification or within-industry reduces risk based on the portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952).
(operation) diversification. Similarly, there are only a few studies Montgomery (1985) argued that managers consider diversifica-
that have investigated the diversification strategies of tourism- tion strategies in order to avoid unfavorable uncertainties within
related companies. Liu and Wang (2007) and Wang and Xu (2008) a single market. Regarding the DP relationship, Rumelt (1974)
found that diversification strategies recently enhanced in Chinese claimed that diversification could be understood as an aggregation
tourism companies. Based on this review of past diversification of two or more income streams. Thus, negatively correlated income
studies, there is still a need to examine the relationship between streams could produce a smaller variance as compared to a single
market diversification and firm performance in the hospitality and income stream. Of course a perfect negative correlation is rare in
tourism industry. the real world, but if two income streams are weakly correlated
the volatility of the combined income stream can be reduced. Thus,
2.2. Related diversification vs. unrelated diversification and in comparison to related diversification, unrelated diversification
profitability reduces volatility because the aggregated income stream of unre-
lated diversification tends to be more weakly related to the primary
Theoretical arguments on the profitability of related and unre- market.
lated diversification are contradictory. On the one hand, Rumelt However, as West (1967) argued, corporate diversification can-
(1974, 1982) argued that related diversification produces superior not produce the same outcomes as financial diversification. In
profits as opposed to unrelated diversification, which suggests that financial diversification, an asset portfolio is composed of various
related diversification allows for a larger transfer of core tangible investment options: securities in the stock market, real estate, and
and intangible capabilities (i.e., product lines, knowledge, skills, and other financial options. These assets can be bought and sold by port-
experience) into the diversifying target business (Penrose, 1959; folio owners and adding or substituting an asset does not affect
Rumelt, 1974). This rationale is based on economies of scope and the return and risk of the remaining individual assets. Thus, the
scale and the synergy hypothesis. From this perspective, unre- volatility of a portfolio can constantly be reduced by adding new
lated diversification requires certain substantial costs derived from investment options. However, in corporate diversification any busi-
new and unfamiliar business environments, which could adversely ness in the business portfolio influences the remaining individual
reduce profits. business segments as well as the overall corporate structure and
On the other hand, the internal market efficiency hypothe- efficiency (Bettis and Hall, 1982; Lubatkin and O’Neill, 1987). This
sis favors unrelated diversification. The internal market efficiency means that risk reduction based on the portfolio theory could dif-
hypothesis (Higgins and Schall, 1975; Lewellen, 1971; Scherer, fer between financial diversification and corporate diversification.
1980) argues that diversified firms can allocate their capital This implies that the consequences of corporate diversification per-
resources more efficiently than undiversified firms by optimally formance may not be a linear function (Lubatkin and Chatterjee,
using internal capital. Accordingly, these internal market efficien- 1994).
cies allow diversified firms to access relatively inexpensive external A number of studies have investigated the relationship between
funds and transfer capital between businesses within its portfolio diversification and risk. Amit and Livnat (1988) found that unre-
(Meyer et al., 1992). Diversification is a source of varied efficiencies lated diversification lowers risk. However, Barton (1988), Bettis
220 K. Park, S. Jang / International Journal of Hospitality Management 31 (2012) 218–228
(1981), Bettis and Hall (1982), and Montgomery and Singh each separate related and unrelated diversification. Likewise, Palich
(1984) found that unrelated diversification increases risk. Fur- et al.’s (2000) limited studies investigated the non-linear DP rela-
ther, Lubatkin and O’Neill (1987) found that related diversification tionship at the level of total diversification. Grant et al. (1988),
reduces risk while unrelated diversification increases risk. Conse- Tallman and Li (1996), Nachum (2004) and Narasimhan and Kim
quently, the actual risk reduction effect of various diversification (2002) found that profits increase up to a certain point of total diver-
strategies is theoretically and practically ambiguous. sification but decrease beyond that point. Moreover, Palich et al.’s
(2000) hypothesis assumed that firms first diversify into related
2.4. Industry-specific effects on performance businesses and then later move into unrelated businesses. How-
ever, this assumption does not always hold for diversified firms.
Christensen and Montgomery (1981) argued that differences in Another limitation of Palich et al. (2000) is the ambiguous con-
diversification performance are due to market structure. Datta et al. ceptual separation of the diversification level into moderate and
(1991) also pointed out that diversification studies have shown high levels of diversification. To clarify performance differences
little interest in industry-specific factors, such as industry concen- according to the level of diversification, businesses must be clearly
tration, growth, and profitability. Schmalensee (1985) suggested separated into low and high levels of diversification. Thus, when
that industry-specific effects could be even more important than we hypothesized diversification performance we separated diver-
firm-specific effects in terms of the performance of diversification sification into low and high levels for both related and unrelated
strategies. For example, Bass et al. (1977) found that diversification diversification in order to examine the costs and benefits of diver-
strategies had a positive effect in slow-growth industries but a neg- sification according to the level (low or high) and type (related or
ative effect in high-growth industries. Bettis and Hall (1982) also unrelated) of diversification.
concluded that in terms of profits and risk there are no differences At a low level of related diversification, profitability might
between related and unrelated diversification once industry factors decrease because the costs of related diversification (i.e., low prof-
are incorporated. Thus, when the primary industry-specific effects itability of the related businesses) can dominate the benefits of
are neglected, as well as the diversifying target industry-specific related diversification (i.e., economies of scale and scope and syn-
effects, the predicted performance of a diversification strategy ergy between businesses). On the other hand, profits might increase
could be misleading. with a high level of related diversification because the benefits of
It is well known that the restaurant industry has low profitability related diversification could dominate due to economies of scale
and high risk (Kim and Gu, 2003; Skalpe, 2003). In terms of related and scope and synergy. Thus, profitability decreases up to a cer-
businesses, restaurant firms frequently diversify into the franchis- tain level of related diversification but increases beyond that level,
ing segment. The performance of this segment would be the same which might be described as a U-shaped curve. In the relationship
as the primary business. Further, the food-production industry, between unrelated diversification and profitability, lower levels of
another frequently diversified segment, is a big challenge because unrelated diversification could increase profitability because unre-
it relies on high volume, low profits, and slow growth in sales lated businesses might create more profits, relatively, than the
(MacGregor and Sever, 1996). The situation of related segments primary business. However, at a high level of unrelated diversi-
in the restaurant industry is not very different from that of the fication profitability might decrease as firms stray further away
primary industry. Consequently, if restaurant firms diversify into from the primary business. In other words, high levels of unrelated
related segments it is unlikely they will achieve profit enhancement diversification can lead to a loss of control and lack of managerial
due to the low profitability of the related businesses. In addition, capacity. Markides (1992) and Nachum (2004) argued that man-
in terms of risk of profitability the income streams of related busi- agers have a limited capacity to cope with increased complexity,
nesses might be highly correlated with the primary business. Even loss of control, and increased inflexibility. It can also be difficult to
though the portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952) predicts moderate transfer a firm’s competitive advantages across markets and prod-
risk reduction from related diversification, the risk could actually ucts. Further, inefficiencies may arise if there are problems adapting
increase because the aggregated income streams should behave to environmental differences.
similarly.
In contrast, unrelated diversification of restaurant firms could Hypothesis 1. Profitability decreases up to a certain level of
enhance profitability if the unrelated businesses are relatively related diversification, but beyond that level it increases as related
profitable compared to the primary business. This means that diversification increases.
diversification into a relatively profitable target industry could con- Hypothesis 2. Profitability increases up to a certain level of unre-
tribute to profit enhancement. Further, unrelated diversification lated diversification, but beyond that level it decreases as unrelated
of restaurant firms could reduce risk considerably if the income diversification increases.
streams of the primary business and the unrelated business are
weakly (or perhaps even negatively) correlated. Consequently, the In spite of encouragement by Palich et al. (2000), scholars have
overall expectations for restaurant diversification could differ from presently made no attempt to investigate the non-linear relation-
the traditional rationale when restaurant industry-specific charac- ship between diversification and the risk (volatility) of profitability.
teristics are incorporated. The conventional hypothesis follows portfolio theory (Markowitz,
1952) and expects consistent risk reduction with both related and
2.5. Non-linear hypothesis regarding the DP relationship unrelated diversification. However, low levels of related diversifi-
cation could increase risk because the similar risk characteristics
Palich et al. (2000) proposed a non-linear hypothesis that related of the highly correlated income streams would likely overpower
diversification (i.e., a moderate level of diversification) increases the effects of risk reduction. On the other hand, at high levels of
firm performance but unrelated diversification (i.e., a high level of related diversification profit volatility would decrease because the
diversification) decreases it. However, Palich et al. (2000) proposed risk reduction effects of portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952) might
a simple synthesis of Rumelt’s (1974, 1982) propositions regarding dominate the synthetic related business risk. Consequently, profit
the total level of diversification: (1) related diversification posi- volatility increases up to a certain level of related diversification but
tively effects firm performance and (2) unrelated diversification decreases beyond that level. Risk decreases up to a certain level of
negatively effects firm performance. Thus, in Palich et al. (2000) unrelated diversification due to the weak (or even negative) cor-
there is no consideration of the non-linear relationship between relation of income streams as stated in the portfolio theory, but it
K. Park, S. Jang / International Journal of Hospitality Management 31 (2012) 218–228 221
increases beyond that level due to business risk and a loss of control firms were diversified. The Compustat Segment Database provides
and flexibility. annual sales of each business segment based on the four-digit SIC
(Standard Industrial Classification). Performance data, such as prof-
Hypothesis 3. Profitability risk increases up to a certain level of
itability and risk (volatility) of profitability, were collected from
related diversification, but beyond that level it decreases as related
Compustat Fundamental Annual Database and merged with the
diversification increases.
Compustat Segment data. If the sales generated from the primary
Hypothesis 4. Profitability risk decreases up to a certain level segment (SICs 5812) were less than 50% the observation was elim-
of unrelated diversification, but beyond that level it increases as inated.
unrelated diversification increases.
n 1
3.1. Data DT = Pi × ln
Pi
i=1
This study used diversification data on the U.S. restaurant indus-
try from 1980 to 2008 retrieved from the Compustat Segment where Pi = the ratio of the firm’s total sales within the ith industry
Database (Primary SIC is 5812). The sample included a total of 308 segment; n = the number of industry segments in which the firm
companies and 2829 observations. Of the 308 restaurant firms, 77 participates.
222 K. Park, S. Jang / International Journal of Hospitality Management 31 (2012) 218–228
DT represents total diversification entropy; Pi is the share of 3.5. Control and instrumental variables
the ith business within the firm; and n is the number of business
segments identified by the four-digit SIC code. Thus, a larger DT Following prior studies, we included a number of control vari-
means a higher degree of overall diversification at the firm level. ables in the model. Firm size is critical to our analysis because the
dependent variables are divided by firm size. Thus, to control for
M
the size effect on the dependent variables we used logarithmically
DR = DRj × Pj
transformed total assets and sales and their squared logarithmically
j=1 transformed variables. We also incorporated financial and oper-
where DRj = diversification within industry groups; M = number of ating leverage. In prior studies, debt leverage positively affected
industry groups (n ≥ M); and Pj = the ratio of the firm’s total sales profitability in Hurdle (1974), but negatively affected it in Hall and
within the jth industry group. Weiss (1967) and Gale (1972). However, highly leveraged firms
DR represents related diversification entropy; DRj is the related can reduce wasteful investments and increase firm performance
diversification arising from operating in several businesses within through managerial discipline (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990). To con-
an industry group j; and Pj is the share of the segment jth group’s trol for the financial leverage effect, we used the logarithmically
sales out of the total sales of the firm. Thus, a lager DR means that transformed ratio of total debt to total assets. Ito (1997) found that
a firm is highly diversified into related businesses. a fixed-asset ratio had a positive effect on profitability. A higher
fixed-asset ratio means that more physical assets are needed to
M
1 produce products and services, which implies that firms with a
DU = Pj × ln higher fixed-asset ratio have a larger market share. Most diversi-
Pj
j=1 fied restaurant firms had food manufacturing and equipment lines.
Many had even invested in real estate in order to diversify into
where M = the number of industry groups; Pj = the ratio of the firm’s
hotel/motel industries. Considering the purpose of this study, it
total sales within the jth industry group.
is necessary to examine this factor in the relationship between
DU implies unrelated diversification entropy; Pj is the share of
diversification and firm performance. Thus, to control for operating
the jth industry group’s sales out of the total sales of the firm; and M
leverage the logarithmically transformed ratio of property, plant
is the number of industry groups (Palepu, 1985). Likewise, a larger
and equipment to total assets and the ratio of depreciation to total
DU means that a firm is highly diversified into unrelated businesses.
assets were included.
According to the free cash flow hypothesis (Jensen, 1986), exces-
DT = DR + DU sive free cash flows allow managers to pursue personal goals
regardless of firm value. Although cash flow has a positive effect on
Finally, total diversification entropy is the sum of related and firm performance because it can be used for profitable investment,
unrelated diversification entropy. This is the decomposability of Brush et al. (2000) found that free cash flow can have a negative
the entropy measurement. As indicated earlier, to examine the influence on firm performance due to unprofitable investments.
non-linear relationship between diversification and performance Thus, we incorporated cash flow, a dummy of Tobin’s Q, and free
we incorporated the square terms of the entropy measures: DR2 cash flow in the model. Also, we followed Himmelberg et al. (1999)
(square term of DR) and DU2 (square term of DU). method to calculate Tobin’s Q. Similar to Brush et al. (2000), if
Finally, the last diversification measurement is the ratio of Tobin’s Q is less than one the firm has free cash flows, but if Tobin’s Q
unrelated entropy to total entropy (RUTE). When firms are simul- is larger than one there are no free cash flows. Additionally, because
taneously considering both related and unrelated diversification mergers and acquisitions might change firm size, we incorporated
strategies, it is difficult to decide how firms should mix them. an M&A dummy. We also controlled for size change using total asset
Thus, this study incorporated the ratio of unrelated entropy to total growth and net sales growth. Finally, to control for changes in the
entropy in order to identify the optimal mixed ratio of related and primary market size we incorporated the average prior three-year
unrelated diversification. In this measure, a value of “one” implies sales growth, which is the average of the primary market (SIC 5812)
that the firm is wholly diversified into unrelated businesses, and a sales growth at times t-1, t-2 and t-3. Detailed descriptions of all
value of “zero” indicates that the firm is diversified fully into related variables are provided in Table 1.
businesses. Similar to prior entropy measures, we incorporated the Methodologically, the instrumental variable (IV) regression
squared term (RUTE2 ) in our analysis. needs reliable and valid instruments for first stage estimation. The
appropriate instrumental variables for this study are determinants
3.4. Classification of related and unrelated diversification of corporate diversification, as we addressed in the discussion of
the endogenous relationship between corporate diversification and
When measuring related and unrelated entropy, whether a firm performance. For instance, many firm-level factors are related
business (industry or sector) is classified as either related or to diversification decisions: firm size, fixed assets, overall firm
unrelated is important. Prior studies tend to favor Rumelt’s classi- growth advertising expenditures, and capital structures such as
fication. However, it has limitations due to categorizing businesses total and long-term debt leverage or debt/equity ratio. Simply put,
as related or unrelated based on the SIC classification system. large firms can diversify more easily since they have more resources
Conventional Rumelt’s classification identifies the relatedness of and low growth firms are more likely to diversify than high growth
businesses based on whether the first two-digit SIC codes are the firms. Also, firms with higher advertising expenditures are better
same or not. If they are same, the two businesses are categorized situated to exploit their market reputation when diversifying. Since
as related businesses. Otherwise, they are categorized as unre- diversification is a kind of investment behavior, capital structure
lated businesses. However, the SIC classification system does not is also associated with diversification (Jang and Tang, 2009). All
represent the relatedness of businesses. Thus, this study modi- instrumental variables (IV) in the analysis used the average prior
fied the classification method based on the basic characteristics of three-year variable. In other words, the average value from time t-1
each diversifying target industry. Because restaurant firms provide to time t-3 was used. Theoretically, the diversification decision is
food-related products and services, we categorized food-related determined by long-term performance rather than short-term per-
businesses, such as food retail and food production, as related to formance. Thus, using the prior three-year average value is more
the primary business. logical. Another advantage of the prior three-year average is that it
K. Park, S. Jang / International Journal of Hospitality Management 31 (2012) 218–228 223
Table 1
Variable description. 2
Volatilityi,t = ˇ1 × (DR)i,t + ˇ2 × (DR)i,t + ˇ3 × ln (TDL)i,t
+ ˇ4 × ln (Firm Size)i,t
Variable Description 2
+ ˇ5 × ln (Firm Size)i,t + ˇ6 × (Firm Size Growth)i,t
ROAi,t Adjusted return on assets [(net income + interests +ˇ7 × Avg Pri NSGRi,t
paid) ÷ total assets at the beginning of time t] + DYt
ROSi,t Adjusted return on sales [(net income + interests Model 3-a & Model 3-b
paid) ÷ net sales at time t]
ln(Var ROA)i,t Logarithmic transformed modified 3-year variance of
2
adjusted ROA Volatilityi,t = ˇ1 × (DU)i,t + ˇ2 × (DU)i,t + ˇ3 × ln (TDL)i,t
ln(Var ROS)i,t Logarithmic transformed modified 3-year variance of + ˇ4 × ln (Firm Size)i,t
2
adjusted ROS + ˇ5 × ln (Firm Size)i,t + ˇ6 × (Firm Size Growth)i,t
DRi,t Related diversification entropy +ˇ7 × Avg Pri NSGRi,t
DR2i,t Squared term of related diversification entropy + DYt
DUi,t Unrelated diversification entropy Model 4-a & Model 4-b
DU2i,t Squared term of unrelated diversification entropy
RUTEi,t Ratio of unrelated entropy to total entropy DR represents related diversification entropy and DU repre-
[DU ÷ (DR + DU)] sents unrelated diversification entropy. Models 1-a and 1-b apply
RUTE2i,t Squared term of RUTEi,t to Hypothesis 1, which concerns the relationship between related
ln(TDL)i,t Logarithmic transformed total debt leverage [ln(total
diversification and profitability. It was expected that coefficient ˇ1
debt ÷ total assets)]
ln(NS)i,t Logarithmic transformed net sales would be negative and ˇ2 would be positive. Models 2-a and 2-b
2
ln (NS)i,t Squared logarithmic transformed net sales were proposed to examine Hypothesis 2. It was expected that coef-
ln(TA)i,t Logarithmic transformed total assets ficient ˇ1 would be positive and ˇ2 would be negative. Models 3-a
2
ln (TA)i,t Squared logarithmic transformed total assets and 3-b were suggested to investigate Hypothesis 3. It was expected
ln(PP&E)i,t Logarithmic transformed fixed asset ratio [ln(PP&E ÷ total that coefficient ˇ1 would be positive and ˇ2 would be negative and
assets)]
DEPi,t Depreciation of firm i at time t
significant. Models 4-a and 4-b were suggested for Hypothesis 4. It
CFi,t Cash flow of firm i at time t [(operating income before was expected that coefficient ˇ1 would be negative but coefficient
depreciation − total income taxes − change in deferred ˇ2 would be positive.
taxes from the previous year to the current year − gross
2
interest expense − preferred dividend requirements on Profitabilityi,t = ˇ1 × (RUTE)i,t + ˇ2 × (RUTE)i,t + ˇ3 × ln (TDL)i,t
cumulative preferred stocks and dividends paid on + ˇ4 × ln (Firm Size)i,t
2
non-cumulative preferred stock − total dollar amount of + ˇ5 × ln (Firm Size)i,t + ˇ6 × ln (PP&E)i,t + ˇ7 × DEPi,t
dividends declared on common stocks) ÷ total assets] + ˇ8 × CFi,t + ˇ9 × DQi,t
DQi,t Dummy Tobin’s Q = 1 if Tobin’s Q is larger than 1/ = 0 if + ˇ10 × FCFi,t + ˇ11 × DM&Ai,t + DYt
Tobin’s Q is less than 1 Model 5-a & Model 5-b
FCFi,t Free cash flow of firm i at time t = CFi,t if Tobin’s Q is less
than 1/=0 if Tobin’s Q is larger than 1
2
DM&Ai,t Dummy M&A = 1 if firm i executed M&A at time t/ = 0 Volatilityi,t = ˇ1 × (RUTE)i,t + ˇ2 × (RUTE)i,t + ˇ3 × ln (TDL)i,t
otherwise + ˇ4 × ln (Firm Size)i,t
2
NSGRi,t Net sales growth [(net salesi,t − net salesi,t-1 ) ÷ net salesi,t-1 ] + ˇ5 × ln (Firm Size)i,t + ˇ6 × (Firm Size Growth)i,t
TAGRi,t Total assets growth [(total assetsi,t − total assetsi,t-1 ) ÷ total +ˇ7 × Avg Pri NSGRi,t
assetsi,t-1 ] + DYt
Avg Pri NSGRi,t Average sales growth of the primary business (SIC 5812) Model 6-a & Model 6-b
from t-1 to t-3
DYt Year dummies Finally, RUTEi,t represents the ratio of unrelated entropy to total
entropy for firm i at time t. Models 5-a and 5-b apply to Hypothesis
5, which represents the relationship between the ratio of unrelated
reduces redundancy and helps avoid over-identification. Multiple entropy to total entropy and profitability. It was expected that coef-
usages of the same IV tend to make the model over-identified. (For ficient ˇ1 would be positively significant but coefficient ˇ2 would
example, using average prior three-year total debt leverage rather be negatively significant because the positive and negative effects
than the three total debt leverages from time t-1 to time t-3). Fol- of the two types of diversification were mitigated when they were
lowing these theoretical rationale and prior studies, instrumental equally mixed. Models 6-a and 6-b were suggested for Hypothesis
variables were also used in the analysis. 6. We expected that coefficient ˇ1 would be negative and ˇ2 would
be positive.
3.6. Proposed models
3.7. Estimation method
To examine the hypotheses regarding the relationship between
diversification and firm performance, this study proposed the fol- There were two estimation issues in this study. The first is the
lowing models: firm-specific effect, which refers to an unobservable heterogene-
ity in each firm’s behavior. To overcome heterogeneity problems
2
Profitabilityi,t = ˇ1 × (DR)i,t + ˇ2 × (DR)i,t + ˇ3 × ln (TDL)i,t panel estimation is frequently used to account for fixed-effects in
+ ˇ4 × ln (Firm Size)i,t
2 the model. The fixed-effect estimation could control the variation in
+ ˇ5 × ln (Firm Size)i,t + ˇ6 × ln (PP&E)i,t + ˇ7 × DEPi,t
error terms between heterogeneous firms. Thus, the current study
+ ˇ8 × CFi,t + ˇ9 × DQi,t applied the fixed-effect estimation in our analysis. Additionally, this
+ ˇ10 × FCFi,t + ˇ11 × DM&Ai,t + DYt
Model 1-a & Model 1-b study included year dummies to control for time variation because
performance differences could be affected by time variations. Con-
2 sequently, this study applied the panel estimation model on the
Profitabilityi,t = ˇ1 × (DU)i,t + ˇ2 × (DU)i,t + ˇ3 × ln (TDL)i,t
+ ˇ4 × ln (Firm Size)i,t firm-specific effect and applied the time variation to the analysis.
2
+ ˇ5 × ln (Firm Size)i,t + ˇ6 × ln (PP&E)i,t + ˇ7 × DEPi,t The second estimation issue relates to the appropriateness
+ ˇ8 × CFi,t + ˇ9 × DQi,t of instrumental variables since we used instrumental variable
+ ˇ10 × FCFi,t + ˇ11 × DM&Ai,t + DYt regression. First, if an instrument cannot appropriately predict
Model 2-a & Model 2-b the endogenous variable (diversification variable) the second stage
224 K. Park, S. Jang / International Journal of Hospitality Management 31 (2012) 218–228
Table 2
Mean values of diversified and undiversified firms.
Table 3
The related/unrelated diversification entropy effect on profitability.
Model 1-a (D.V.: ROA) Model 1-b (D.V.: ROS) Model 2-a (D.V.: ROA) Model 2-b (D.V.: ROS)
dominates the risk-reduction effect. However, at higher levels of between related/unrelated diversification entropy and profitability
related diversification the risk-reduction effect dominates the syn- volatility.
thetic business risk from related businesses.
As seen in Table 4, the coefficient of unrelated diversifica- 4.3. RUTE (ratio of unrelated entropy to total entropy) and firm
tion entropy was negatively significant and the squared term performance
was positive, but only significant for the volatility of ROA.
This means that the volatility of ROA decreases up to a cer- The final hypotheses examine the optimal mixed levels of
tain level of unrelated diversification, but beyond that level related and unrelated diversification that maximize profitability
the risk of ROA increases as unrelated diversification entropy and minimize profitability volatility (Hypotheses 5 and 6). To test
increases. However, the risk of ROS linearly decreased as unre- these hypotheses, we incorporated the ratio of unrelated entropy
lated diversification increased. This suggests that asset efficiency to total entropy. Table 5 shows the results of Models 5-a and 5-b,
decreases at an extreme level of unrelated diversification. How- which relate to Hypothesis 5. The linear term of the ratio of entropy
ever, squared unrelated diversification entropy remained positive to total entropy (RUTE) was positively significant, and the squared
on the volatility of ROS. Thus, Hypothesis 4 was partially term (RUTE2 ) was negatively significant. If we took derivatives of
accepted. Figs. 3 and 4 show the predictions of the relationship ROA and ROS with respect to RUTE for the results of both Models 5-a
Table 4
The related/unrelated diversification entropy effect on risk (volatility) of profitability.
Model 3-a D.V.: ln(VAR ROA) Model 3-b D.V.: ln(VAR ROS) Model 4-a D.V.: ln(VAR ROA) Model 4-b D.V.: ln(VAR ROS)
Table 5
The effect of ratio of unrelated entropy to total entropy on profitability and volatility.
Model 5-a D.V.: ROA Model 5-b D.V.: ROS Model 6-a D.V.: ln(VAR ROA) Model 6-b D.V.: ln(VAR ROS)
Table 6
Summary of hypotheses and results.
ROA ROS
DR − − −
Hypothesis 1 is accepted
DR2 + + +
Profitability
DU + + +
Hypothesis 2 is accepted
DU2 − − −
DR + + +
Hypothesis 3 is accepted
DR2 − − −
Profitability risk (volatility)
DU − − −
Hypothesis 4 is accepted
DU2 + + +
RUTE + + +
Profitability Hypothesis 5 is accepted
RUTE2 − − −
RUTE − − −
Profitability risk (volatility) Hypothesis 6 is accepted
RUTE2 + + +
Fig. 2. Prediction of ROS for related and unrelated diversification entropy. Fig. 3. Prediction on the variance of ROA for related and unrelated diversification
entropy.
K. Park, S. Jang / International Journal of Hospitality Management 31 (2012) 218–228 227
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