LITTLE WONDERS CONVENT SCHOOL

Submitted by : Submitted to:

Avinash Singh Raman Sir
Subject: Mathematics

Part A

Explain the conditional probability, the theorem

of total probability and the concept of Baye’s
theorem with examples.
 Acknowledgement

I would like to express my special thanks

of my gratitude to Principal Mrs. Bhavana
Chelawat and my teacher Mr. Raman
Shrivastav, who gave me golden
opportunity to do this wonderful project of
mathematics on “Conditional Probability”
and “Baye’s Theorem” , who also helped
me in completing my project. I came to
know about so many new things , I am
really thankful to them. Secondly I would
also like to thanks my parents and my
brother who helped me a lot in finalizing
this project within the limited time frame.
 Avinash
singh XII
P.C.M
 Certificate

This is to certify that Avinash Singh , a

student of class XII has successfully
completed the research on the project
under the guidance of Mr. Raman
Shrivastav during the year 2020 – 2021.
Name of Examiner Name of Teacher

Signature Signature
 Index

⮚ Introduction of probability 5
⮚ Basic probability some basic concepts 5
⮚ Probability of multiple events
⮚ Importance of probability 7
⮚ Conditional probability 7
⮚ Proof of conditional probability 7
⮚ Difference between probability and conditional
probability 8
⮚ Formula of conditional probability 10
⮚ Law of total probability 11
⮚ Total probability theorem statement 11
⮚ Total probability theorem proof 12
⮚ Baye’s theorem 13
⮚ Formula of baye’s theorem 15
⮚ Derivation of baye’s theorem 1
 Introduction

Probability is the science of how likely events are to

happen. At it’s simplest , it’s concerned with the roll of
a dice , or the fall of the cards in a game . But
probability is also vital to science and life more
generally .
Probability is used , for example , in such diverse area
as weather forecasting and to workout the cost of your
insurance premium .
A basic understanding of probability is an essential
skill in life even if you are not a professional gambler
or weather forecaster .

Basic probability : Some concepts

The probability that an event will occur is a number
between 0 and 1 . In other words , it is a fraction . It is
also sometimes written as a percentage , because a
percentage is simply a fraction with a denominator of
a hundred .
An event that is certain to occur has a probability of 1
or 100 % and one that will definitely not occur has a
probability of 0. It is also said to be impossible .
Probability is easier to understand with an example:
In this case , there is only one outcome that leads to
that event (i.e. you throw a 6) , and 6 possible
outcomes all together (you might throw 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or
6).
The probability of throwing a 6 is therefore 1/6 .
Now suppose that you want to know what your
chances are of throwing 1 or 6 . Now there are two
favourable outcomes , 1 and 6 , but still 6 possible
outcomes . The probability is therefore 2/6 , which
you can reduce down to 1/3 .

Probability of multiple events

Probability gets a bit more complicated when you
have multiple events , for example , when you are
tossing more then 1 coin , or throwing several dice .
 Importance of probability
The importance probability is statistics is that we can
use it to predict results of experiment under
assumption.
The probability theory is very much helpful for making
predictions. Estimates and predictions form an
important part of research investigation. With the help
of statistical methods , we make estimates for further
analysis. Thus , statistical methods are largely
dependent on the theory of probability.

Conditional Probability
It is defined as the likelihood of an event or outcome
occurring , based on the occurrence of a previous
event or outcomes. Conditional probability is
calculated by multiplying the probability of the
preceding event by the updated probability of the
succeeding or conditional event.

Proof of conditional probability

Suppose that the event A and B are defined on the
same probability space , and the event B is such that
P(B)>0. The conditional probability of A given that B
has occurred is given by P(A|B)=P(A∩B)/P(B) .

Difference between Probability

and Conditional probability
P(A∩B) and P(A|B) are very closely related . There
only difference is that the conditional probability
assumes that we already know something – that B is
true for P(A|B) , however , we will receive a
probability between 0 , if A cannot happen when B is
true , and P(B) , if A is always true when B is true.
Example:
Formula and derivavtion
of conditional probability
:
 Law of Total Probability:
For two events A And B associated with a sample
space S , the sample space can be divided into a set
A∩B’,A∩B,A’∩B,A’∩B’ . This set is said to be mutually
disjoint or pairwise disjoint because any pair of sets in
it is disjoint . Elements of this set are better known as
partition of sample space.
This can be represented by the Venn diagram as
showed in figure in cases where the probability of
occurrence of other events weuse total probability
theorem.

Total Probability Theorem Statement

Let events C1, C2 . . . Cn form partitions of the sample
space S, where all the events have a non-zero
probability of occurrence. For any event, A
associated with S, according to the total probability
theorem,
P(A) = ∑k=0nP(Ck)P(A|Ck)

Total Probability Theorem Proof

From the figure 2, {C1, C2, . . . . , Cn} is the partitions of
the sample space S such that, Ci ∩ Ck = φ, where i ≠ k
and i, k = 1, 2,…,n also all the events C1,C2 . . . . Cn have
non zero probability. Sample space S can be given as,
S = C1 ∪ C2 ∪ . . . . . ∪ Cn
For any event A,
A=A∩S
= A ∩ (C1 ∪ C2∪ . . . . ∪ Cn)
= (A ∩ C1) ∪ (A ∩ C2) ∪ … ∪ (A ∩ Cn) (1)
We know that A ∩ Ci and A ∩ Ck are the subsets of
Ci and Ck. Here, Ci and Ck are disjoint for i ≠ k. since
they are mutually independent events which imply
that A ∩ Ci and A ∩ Ck are also disjoint for all i ≠ k.
Thus,
P(A) = P [(A ∩ C1) ∪ (A ∩ C2) ∪ ….. ∪ (A ∩ Cn)]
= P (A ∩ C1) + P (A ∩ C2) + … + P (A ∩ Cn) (2)
We know that,
P(A ∩ Ci) = P(Ci) P(A|Ci)(By multiplication rule of
probability) (3)
Using (2) and (3), (1) can be rewritten as,
P(A) = P(C1)P(A| C1) + P(C2)P(A|C2) + P(C3)P(A| C3)

+ . . . . . + P(Cn)P(A| Cn)

Hence, the theorem can be stated in form of equation

as,
P(A)=∑k=0nP(Ck)P(A|Ck)

Total Probability Theorem Example

Example:
A person has undertaken a mining job. The
probabilities of completion of job on time with and
without rain are 0.42 and 0.90 respectively. If the
probability that it will rain is 0.45, then determine the
probability that the mining job will be completed on
time.
Solution:
Let A be the event that the mining job will be
completed on time and B be the event that it rains. We
have,
P(B) = 0.45,
P(no rain) = P(B′) = 1 − P(B) = 1 − 0.45 = 0.55
By multiplication law of probability,
P(A|B) = 0.42
P(A|B′) = 0.90
Since, events B and B′ form partitions of the sample

space S, by total probability theorem, we have

P(A) = P(B) P(A|B) + P(B′) P(A|B′)

=0.45 × 0.42 + 0.55 × 0.9
= 0.189 + 0.495 = 0.684
So, the probability that the job will be completed on
time is 0.684.
 Baye’s theorem:

A theorem describing how the conditional probability

of each of a set of possible cases for a given observed
outcomes can be computed for knowledge of the
probability of each cause and the conditional
probability of the outcome of each cause.

Formula of Baye’s theorem

Derivation of Baye’s Theorem:
Example:
Applications of Bayes’ Theorem

There are plenty of applications of the Bayes’ Theorem in

the real world. Don’t worry if you do not understand all

the mathematics involved right away. Just getting a sense

of how it works is good enough to start off.

Bayesian Decision Theory is a statistical approach to the

problem of pattern classification. Under this theory, it is

assumed that the underlying probability distribution for

the categories is known. Thus, we obtain an ideal Bayes

Classifier against which all other classifiers are judged for

performance.

Application:

Estimating the Most Likely Location of Oxygen-Cathode

Failure.

Postulated distribution pattern of 137 failure occurrences

over a fixed time period in three independently operating

(hypothetical) electrolytic plants using identical catalytic

oxygen cathodes.

(1) Electrolytic carbon type P33: specific surface area is

less than stipulated 1000 m2/g.

(2) Electrolytic carbon type P33: specific pore volume is

less than stipulated 2.3 cm3/g.

(3) PTFE binder content in electrode layer is less than

stipulated 10%.
(4) CoTAA (dibenzotetraazaannulen cobalt II) catalyst

content on carbon is less than stipulated 15%.

(5) Careless stack assemblage and general operation.