Linear model equation:

y=a0 +a1 x
Normal equation

n ∑x a0 ∑y
[∑ x ∑ x2 ][ ] [ ]
a1
=¿
∑ xy

32 528 a0 = 3570
[ 528 11440 a1 59951][ ] [ ]
a 0=¿105.24

a 1=¿0.3834

y=105.24 +0.3834 x
m
RMSD= √∑
i=1
¿¿¿¿

56.8065024
¿
√ 32

¿1.3324

Quadratic model equation: P( x )=a0 + a1 x +a2 x 2

n ∑ x ∑ x2 a0 ∑y
[ ∑x
∑ x2
∑ x2 ∑ x3
∑ x3 ∑ x4 ][ ] [ ]
a1 =
a2
∑ xy
∑ x2 y
Normal Equation:

32 528 11440 a0 3570

[ 528
][ ] [ ]
11440 278784 a1 = 59951
11440 278784 7246096 a2 1307797

a 0=¿102.22

a 1=¿ 0.9164

a 2=−0.0 162

y=102.22+0.9164 x −0.0 162 x 2

53.1029595
RMSD ¿
√ 32
 ¿1.2882

Exponential Model equation:

y= A e Bx

ln ( y )=ln ⁡( A e Bx )

ln ( y )=ln ( A ) +Bx ln ⁡( e)

ln ( y )=ln ( A ) +Bx

y=a0 +a1 x

n ∑x a0 ∑y
[∑ x ∑ x2 ][ ] [ ]
a1
=¿
∑ xy
32 528 a0 = 150.8480
[ 528 11440 a1 ][ ] [
2498.4639 ]
ln ( A ) =a0 =¿4.6567

B=a1=¿ 0.0035

ln ( A ) =a0

e ln ( A )=ea 0

A=e 4.6567
A=105.29

y=105.29 e 0.0035 x

61.1327654
RMSD ¿
√ 32

¿ 1.3822
Table: Calculation of RMSD of Linear Model
No. Date Time (t) Total Confirmed Deaths due to Linear Model Abs Error ^2
COVID-19 (Death)
1 May 3, 2020 1 103 105.6234 6.88222756
2 May 4, 2020 2 105 106.0068 1.01364624
3 May 5, 2020 3 105 106.3902 1.93265604
4 May 6, 2020 4 106 106.7736 0.59845696
5 May 7, 2020 5 107 107.157 0.024649
6 May 8, 2020 6 107 107.5404 0.29203216
7 May 9, 2020 7 107 107.9238 0.85340644
8 May 10, 2020 8 108 108.3072 0.09437184
9 May 11, 2020 9 108 108.6906 0.47692836
10 May 12, 2020 10 109 109.074 0.005476
11 May 13, 2020 11 109 109.4574 0.20921476
12 May 14, 2020 12 111 109.8408 1.34374464
13 May 15, 2020 13 112 110.2242 3.15346564
14 May 16, 2020 14 112 110.6076 1.93877776
15 May 17, 2020 15 113 110.991 4.036081
16 May 18, 2020 16 113 111.3744 2.64257536
17 May 19, 2020 17 113 111.7578 1.54306084
18 May 20, 2020 18 114 112.1412 3.45513744
19 May 21, 2020 19 114 112.5246 2.17680516
20 May 22, 2020 20 114 112.908 1.192464
21 May 23, 2020 21 115 113.2914 2.91931396
22 May 24, 2020 22 115 113.6748 1.75615504
23 May 25, 2020 23 115 114.0582 0.88698724
24 May 26, 2020 24 115 114.4416 0.31181056
25 May 27, 2020 25 115 114.825 0.030625
26 May 28, 2020 26 115 115.2084 0.04343056
27 May 29, 2020 27 115 115.5918 0.35022724
28 May 30, 2020 28 115 115.9752 0.95101504
29 May 31, 2020 29 115 116.3586 1.84579396
30 Jun 1, 2020 30 115 116.742 3.034564
31 Jun 2, 2020 31 115 117.1254 4.51732516
32 Jun 3, 2020 32 115 117.5088 6.29407744
Total 56.8065024
RMSD 1.33236752
No. Date Time (t) Total Confirmed Deaths due to Quadratic Abs Error ^2
(x) COVID-19 (Death) Model
( y)
1 May 3, 2020 1 103 103.1202 6.29435577
2 May 4, 2020 2 105 103.988 4.04574966
3 May 5, 2020 3 105 104.8234 2.39522925
4 May 6, 2020 4 106 105.6264 1.24903823
5 May 7, 2020 5 107 106.397 0.52021941
6 May 8, 2020 6 107 107.1352 0.12861774
7 May 9, 2020 7 107 107.841 0.00088332
8 May 10, 2020 8 108 108.5144 0.07047446
9 May 11, 2020 9 108 109.1554 0.27766071
10 May 12, 2020 10 109 109.764 0.56952598
11 May 13, 2020 11 109 110.3402 0.89997161
12 May 14, 2020 12 111 110.884 1.22971946
13 May 15, 2020 13 112 111.3954 1.52631509
14 May 16, 2020 14 112 111.8744 1.76413086
15 May 17, 2020 15 113 112.321 1.92436911
16 May 18, 2020 16 113 112.7352 1.99506531
17 May 19, 2020 17 113 113.117 1.97109132
18 May 20, 2020 18 114 113.4664 1.85415854
19 May 21, 2020 19 114 113.7834 1.65282115
20 May 22, 2020 20 114 114.068 1.3824794
21 May 23, 2020 21 115 114.3202 1.06538282
22 May 24, 2020 22 115 114.54 0.73063353
23 May 25, 2020 23 115 114.7274 0.41418956
24 May 26, 2020 24 115 114.8824 0.15886812
25 May 27, 2020 25 115 115.005 0.01434898
26 May 28, 2020 26 115 115.0952 0.03717781
27 May 29, 2020 27 115 115.153 0.29076954
28 May 30, 2020 28 115 115.1784 0.84541177
29 May 31, 2020 29 115 115.1714 1.77826815
30 Jun 1, 2020 30 115 115.132 3.17338185
31 Jun 2, 2020 31 115 115.0602 5.12167897
32 Jun 3, 2020 32 115 114.956 7.72097202
TOTAL 53.1029595
RMSD 1.2882032
No. Date Time (t) Total Confirmed Deaths due to Exponential Abs Error ^2
(x) COVID-19 (Death) Model
( y)
1 May 3, 2020 1 103 105.6290555 6.91193267
2 May 4, 2020 2 105 105.9994049 0.99881015
3 May 5, 2020 3 105 106.3710528 1.87978583
4 May 6, 2020 4 106 106.7440038 0.55354164
5 May 7, 2020 5 107 107.1182624 0.01398599
6 May 8, 2020 6 107 107.4938332 0.24387119
7 May 9, 2020 7 107 107.8707207 0.75815461
8 May 10, 2020 8 108 108.2489297 0.06196602
9 May 11, 2020 9 108 108.6284648 0.394968
10 May 12, 2020 10 109 109.0093305 8.7059E-05
11 May 13, 2020 11 109 109.3915317 0.15329705
12 May 14, 2020 12 111 109.7750728 1.50044656
13 May 15, 2020 13 112 110.1599587 3.38575182
14 May 16, 2020 14 112 110.5461941 2.11355154
15 May 17, 2020 15 113 110.9337837 4.26924986
16 May 18, 2020 16 113 111.3227322 2.81322731
17 May 19, 2020 17 113 111.7130444 1.65625471
18 May 20, 2020 18 114 112.1047251 3.59206696
19 May 21, 2020 19 114 112.4977791 2.2566677
20 May 22, 2020 20 114 112.8922112 1.22719612
21 May 23, 2020 21 115 113.2880262 2.93085439
22 May 24, 2020 22 115 113.685229 1.72862288
23 May 25, 2020 23 115 114.0838244 0.83937773
24 May 26, 2020 24 115 114.4838174 0.26644452
25 May 27, 2020 25 115 114.8852128 0.01317611
26 May 28, 2020 26 115 115.2880155 0.08295292
27 May 29, 2020 27 115 115.6922305 0.47918308
28 May 30, 2020 28 115 116.0978628 1.20530264
29 May 31, 2020 29 115 116.5049172 2.26477581
30 Jun 1, 2020 30 115 116.9133988 3.66109514
31 Jun 2, 2020 31 115 117.3233127 5.39778178
32 Jun 3, 2020 32 115 117.7346637 7.47838561
TOTAL 61.1327654
RMSD 1.38217181
 Collecting Data

Choosing Suitable Data

Analyse and Interpret the data

Present the Results