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Key:
Blue text indicates assumptions that can be altered
Black text indicates cells with formulas

ASSUMPTIONS
Autonomous Taxi Inputs
Price of 250 mile range EV in 2019
Price of Autonomous Technology 2019
Passenger utilization rate (% of day occupied)
Total utilization rate (% of day driving)
Average MPH of AV
Total possible miles in a given year
Expected % accident reduction
Depreciation
Insurance
Fuel (electric)
Maintenance & Repair
Tire costs per mile
Remote operator network cost
Remote operator labor cost
Cost of parking

Cost to consumer for SAV

Cost to consumer for personal vehicle
Cost to consumer for average US taxi
Cost for NPV = 0 at given hurdle rate

MODEL
Autonomous Taxi Price Per Mile
(units in USD)
Year

Cost of Car
Labor
Insurance
Energy
Maintenance
Tires
Remote Operator Telecom Expense
Parking
Depreciation

Total Costs

Revenue

Net

Corporate Tax Rate

Taxes

Cash Flow

Cumulative Cashflow
Discount Rate

NPV

Payback period (years)

IRR

Useful sources:
http://sustainablemobility.ei.columbia.edu/files/2012/12/Transforming-Personal-Mobility-Jan-27-20132.pd
http://infinitemonkeycorps.net/projects/cityspeed/
http://www.smbiz.com/sbrl003.html#lct14
https://www.trustedchoice.com/commercial-vehicle-insurance/compare-coverage/rate-cost/
https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tools/tax-tips/Small-Business-Taxes/Business-Use-of-Vehicles/INF12071.htm
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/tlc/about/fact-book.page
https://exchange.aaa.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/18-0090_2018-Your-Driving-Costs-Brochure_FNL-
http://insideevs.com/ev-vs-ice-maintenance-the-first-100000-miles/
 Units Notes
45,000 Based on ARK's EV cost decline model. Figure is rounded.
5,000 Based on ARK's cost decline model for autonomous hardware
53% Each autonomous car can accomodate 8.6 people @ 13,500 miles per
58% passenger miles utilization + empty miles utilization based on ARK's es
25 NYC average is ~18mph, LA average is ~27mph
219,000 using average mph
83% Based on ARK's accident rate model
straight line over 5 years
0.02 USD/mile Avg taxi insurance is $5,000-10,000 per year, avg taxi drives 70,000 mi
0.02 USD/mile Assume $0.10 per kWh, battery is 75kWh which lasts for 325 miles (lik
0.02 USD/mile 35% of the ICE maintenance cost
0.01 USD/mile Same as a conventional car
0.04 USD/mile Based on ARK's model for remote operator network
0.01 USD/mile Based on ARK's model for remote operator network
720 USD/year Based on ARK's analysis for 40% of a commercial parking spot

$ PER MILE Notes

Manually change:
0.26
0.72 Based on ARK's analysis
3.47 Based on ARK's analysis
0.26

0 1 2 3 4

-50,000
-1,509 -1,509 -1,509 -1,509
-2,324 -2,324 -2,324 -2,324
 -2,944 -2,944 -2,944 -2,944
-2,818 -2,818 -2,818 -2,818
-1,087 -1,087 -1,087 -1,087
-4,644 -4,644 -4,644 -4,644
-720 -720 -720 -720
-10,000 -10,000 -10,000 -10,000

-50,000 -26,046 -26,046 -26,046 -26,046

30,084 30,084 30,084 30,084

-50,000 4,038 4,038 4,038 4,038

taxes
21%
- 848 - 848 - 848 - 848

-50,000 13,190 13,190 13,190 13,190

-50,000 -36,810 -23,620 -10,430 2,759

10%

10%

/Transforming-Personal-Mobility-Jan-27-20132.pdf

rance/compare-coverage/rate-cost/
ness-Taxes/Business-Use-of-Vehicles/INF12071.html

/18-0090_2018-Your-Driving-Costs-Brochure_FNL-Lo-5-2.pdf
mous hardware
ple @ 13,500 miles per year per car / 219,000 total possible autonomous miles possible per car per year (asuming 25MPH x 24
ation based on ARK's estimates

vg taxi drives 70,000 miles a year - assume about $0.11 cents per mile. Multiply this by the number of miles the SAV drives in a
h lasts for 325 miles (like Tesla)

al parking spot

-1,509
-2,324
 -2,944
-2,818
-1,087
-4,644
-720
-10,000

-26,046

30,084

4,038

- 848

13,190

15,949
er year (asuming 25MPH x 24 hrs/day x 365 days/year). Formula subject to updates.

r of miles the SAV drives in a year and adjust 83% downward for accident reduction.