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SEBI Grade A 2020 Economics Balance of Payments
SEBI Grade A 2020 Economics Balance of Payments
SEBI Grade A 2020 Economics Balance of Payments
Contents
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ................................................................................................. 3
What is ‘Balance of Payment’?........................................................................................................................... 3
Why balance of payment is vital for a country? ................................................................................................. 3
Elements of balance of payment ......................................................................................................................... 3
Current Account .............................................................................................................................................. 3
Capital Account .............................................................................................................................................. 5
Financial Account ........................................................................................................................................... 6
The Balance of Payment (BoP)....................................................................................................................... 6
Convertibility of Indian Rupee: .......................................................................................................................... 6
Partial Convertibility of the Rupee: ................................................................................................................ 7
Full Convertibility of the Rupee: .................................................................................................................... 7
Current Account Convertibility: ..................................................................................................................... 7
Capital Account Convertibility(CAC): ............................................................................................................... 8
Definition: Capital Account Convertibility(CAC): ........................................................................................ 8
Purpose of CAC: ............................................................................................................................................. 8
Benefits of CAC:............................................................................................................................................. 8
Main Provisions Under the System of CAC: .................................................................................................. 8
Preconditions for CAC:................................................................................................................................... 8
Drawbacks of CAC: ........................................................................................................................................ 9
Balance of Payment (BoP) Crisis in India: ......................................................................................................... 9
Second BOP crisis......................................................................................................................................... 10
Crisis of 1990-91........................................................................................................................................... 10
Correction of BoP crisis ................................................................................................................................ 11
• When all the elements are correctly included in the BOP, it should sum up to zero in a perfect scenario.
• This means the inflows and outflows of funds should balance out. However, this does not ideally happen
in most cases.
• BOP statement of a country indicates whether the country has a surplus or a deficit of funds.
• When a country’s export is more than its import, its BOP is said to be in surplus.
• On the other hand, BOP deficit indicates that a country’s imports are more than its exports.
• Tracking the transactions under BOP is something similar to the double entry system of accounting.
• This means, all the transaction will have a debit entry and a corresponding credit entry.
• By studying its BOP statement and its components closely, one would be able to identify trends that may
be beneficial or harmful to the economy of the county and thus, then take appropriate measures.
Current Account
• The current account is used to monitor the inflow and outflow of goods and services between countries.
• This account covers all the receipts and payments made with respect to raw materials and manufactured
goods.
• It also includes receipts from engineering, tourism, transportation, business services, stocks, and
royalties from patents and copyrights.
• When all the goods and services are combined, together they make up to a country’s Balance Of Trade
(BOT).
• There are various categories of trade and transfers which happen across countries.
• It could be visible or invisible trading, unilateral transfers or other payments/receipts.
• Trading in goods between countries are referred to as visible items and import/export of services
(banking, information technology etc) are referred to as invisible items.
• Unilateral transfers refer to money sent as gifts or donations to residents of foreign countries. This
can also be personal transfers like – money sent by relatives to their family located in another country.
• Balance of Trade: The difference between exports of goods and imports of goods is known as the Balance
of Trade.
• If, export of goods (in terms of value) is gretaer than import of goods (In terms of value), we will have a
Trade Surplus.
• If, export of goods (in terms of value) less than import of goods (In terms of value), we will have a Trade
Deficit.
Invisible Trade:
Invisible transactions are further classified into three categories, namely Services, Income and
Transfers.
Services: It includes a large variety of non-factor services (known as invisible items) sold and purchased
by the residents of a country, to and from the rest of the world. Payments are either received or made to
the other countries for use of these services.
Non Factor Services are the services that are not generated by land, labour, capital and entrepreneurship
The income earned from the sale of Indian services abroad is known as an invisible export, e.g., an insurance
premium paid by a British ship-owner to an Indian broker. When Indian residents spend money on foreign
services, e.g., a week’s accommodation in London, they are creating invisible imports, because payment is
going out of India.
Income: It includes Profits and Dividends earned by residents of India on their investments abroad and
vice versa. It also includes interest payments i.e. servicing of debt liabilities.
Transfers: These are unilateral transfers which include gifts, donations, personal remittances and other
‘one-way’ transactions. These refer to those receipts and payments, which take place without any service
in return.
• A current account deficit means the value of imports of goods, services, investment incomes, transfers is
greater than the value of exports. It indicates net outflow of foreign exchange.
• A current account surplus means the value of imports of goods,services, investment, incomes, transfers
is less than the value of exports. It indicates net inflow of foreign exchange.
• Loans & borrowings: It includes all types of loans from both the private and public sectors located in
foreign countries, which are categorised as Sovereign Loan and Commercial Loans.
• Foreign Investments: These are funds invested in the corporate stocks by non-residents. Foreign
investment consist of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Foreign Portfolio Investment(FPIs), Foreign
Institutional Investors (FIIs), External Commercial Borrowings(ECBs), American Depository
Receipts/Global Depository Receipts (ADRs/GDRs).
• Banking Capital: Bank capital is the difference between a bank's assets and its liabilities, and it
represents the net worth of the bank or its equity value to investors. The asset portion of a bank's
capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of
credit, and inter-bank loans).The liabilities section of a bank's capital includes loan-loss reserves and
any debt it owes. A bank's capital can be thought of as the margin to which creditors are covered if the
bank would liquidate its assets.
• Basel I, Basel II, and Basel III standards provide a definition of the regulatory bank capital that market
and banking regulators closely monitor.
• Bank capital is segmented into tiers with Tier 1 capital the primary indicator of a bank's health.
• Foreign exchange reserves – Foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank of a country to
monitor and control the exchange rate does impact the capital account.
• The foreign currency held in a country is also taken into account while maintaining the balance of
payments accounts. The components of India’s Foreign Exchange Reserves include: Foreign exchange
(Foreign Currency Assets), Gold, Special Drawing Rights (SDR) and Reserve Tranche Position in the IMF
• All of India’s foreign exchange remittances—earned through export of goods or services or through
inward remittances—were allowed to be converted in the following manner:
o 60% of the export earnings could be converted at the market determined rate; this amount
could be used freely for current account transactions and payments (i.e., for import of goods, for
travel and for remittances abroad).
o The balance 40% of the earnings should be sold to RBI through authorised dealers at the
official rate of exchange; this amount of foreign exchange would be made available by RBI for
financing preferred imports, bulk imports, etc.
• The system of dual exchange rate of the rupee enabled the exporters to convert (at least) 60% of their
export earnings at the market rate of exchange which was much higher than the official exchange rate.
The GOI expected that this would provide adequate incentive to exporters and increase foreign exchange
earnings.
• As the next step, the GOI announced the convertibility of the rupee on the current account, that
is, liberalise the access to foreign exchange for all current business transactions including travel,
education, medical expenses, etc.
• The basic objective of the GOI was to eliminate reliance upon illegal channels for such legitimate
transactions.
• Full current account convertibility of the Rupee is in operation since the middle of 1990s.
• This move was justified by India’s unprecedented success in the international sector, viz., spectacular
rise in forex reserves, increase in exports, stagnation of imports in dollar terms and improvements in
balance of payments on current account.
• Indian rupee is fully convertible only in the current account and not in the capital account
• This means one can import and export goods or receive or make payments for services rendered.
However, investments and borrowings are restricted.
Purpose of CAC:
• The basic purpose of CAC is to woo foreign investors by sharing an easy market to move in and move
out and to send a strong message that Indian economy is strong and vibrant enough to invest.
• And India has sufficient forex reserves to meet any flight of capital from the country—whatever may be
its extent.
Benefits of CAC:
The potential benefits from the CAC are:
• Availability of large funds to supplement domestic resources and thereby promote faster economic
growth.
• Improved access to international financial markets and reduction of the cost of capital.
• Incentive for Indians to acquire and hold international securities and assets.
• Improvement (strengthening) of the financial system in the context of global competition
• Indian residents would be permitted to have foreign currency denominated deposits with banks in India,
to make transfers of financial capital to other countries within certain limits, and to take loans from non-
relatives and others up to a ceiling of $1 million.
• Indian banks would be permitted to borrow from overseas markets for short-term and long-term up to
certain limits, to invest in overseas money markets, to accept deposits and extend loans denominated
in foreign currency. Such facilities would also be available to non- bank financial institutions and financial
intermediaries like insurance companies, investment companies and mutual funds.
• All India financial institutions which fulfill certain regulatory and prudential require-ments would be
allowed to participate in foreign exchange market along with banks which are the only Authorised Dealers
(ADs) now. At a later stage, certain select Non-Bank Financial Companies (NBFCs) would also be
permitted to act as Ads in foreign exchange markets.
• Banks and financial institutions would be permitted to operate in domestic and interna-tional markets.
They would be allowed to buy and sell gold freely and offer gold denominated deposits and loans.
• Reducing Public Debt: The GOI should also set up a Consolidated Sinking Fund (CSF) to reduce its
debt.
• Fixing Inflation Target: The GOI should fix the annual inflation target between 3% to 5%. This is
called mandated inflation target. The GOI should also give full freedom to the RBI to use monetary
weapons to achieve the inflation target.
• Strengthening the Indian Financial Sector: For this, four conditions are to be satis-fied:
• Full deregulation of interest rates,
• Reduction of gross Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) to 5%,
• Reduction of average effective CRR to 3% and
• Liquidation of weak banks or their merger with other strong banks.
Drawbacks of CAC:
There are certain dangers associated with CAC:
• Contagion Effect: The Asian financial crisis of 1997 makes it abundantly clear that financial crisis from
one country may be easily transmitted to other countries having convert-ible currencies. Any adverse
development in overseas market will affect India’s economy equally adversely—as was amply shown in
the recent world recession of 2008-09.
• Speculation: A convertible currency shows greater fluctuation than an inconvertible one and thus gives
greater scope for destabilising speculation. This creates uncertainty and reduces the volume of trade.
• Outflow of Funds: Indians will have a tendency to buy more assets abroad and India may become a
debtor nation like the USA since it may develop a tendency to spend beyond its means.
• No Ceiling on External Debt: Finally, there will be no ceiling on India’s external debt since the GOI—
knowing well that rupee can now be used for debt serving—will borrow with-out limits.
Crisis of 1990-91
• When we usually discuss about the BoP crisis in India, we refer to that one of 1990-91. This crisis had
its origin from the fiscal year 1979-80 onwards.
• By the end of the 6th plan, India’s BoP deficit (Current account) rose to Rs. 11384 crore. It was the mid
of 1980s when the BoP issue occupied the centre position in India’s macroeconomic management policy.
• The second Oil shock of 1979 was more severe and the value of the imports of India became almost
double between 1978-78 and 1981-82.
• From 1980 to 1983, there was global recession and India’s exports suffered during this time.
• The trade deficit was not been offset by the flow of the funds under net invisibles. Apart from the external
assistance, India had to meet its colossal deficit in the current account through the withdrawal of SDR
and borrowing from IMF under the extended facility arrangement. A large part of the accumulated foreign
exchange fund was used to offset the BoP.
• During the 7th plan, between 1985-86 and 1989-90, India’s trade deficit amounted to Rs. 54, 204 Crore.
The net invisible was Rs. 13157 Crore and India’s BoP was Rs. 41047 Crore.
• India was under a sever BoP crisis. In 1991, India found itself in her worst payment crisis since 1947.
The things became worse by the 1990-91 Gulf war, which was accompanied by double digit inflation.
• India’s credit rating got downgraded. The country was on the verge of defaulting on its international
commitments and was denied access to the external commercial credit markets.
• In October 1990, a Net Outflow of NRI deposits started and continued till 1991.
• The only option left to fulfil its international commitments was to borrow against the security of India’s
Gold Reserves as collateral.
• The prime Minister of the country’s caretaker government was Chandrashekhar and Finance Minister
was Yashwant Sinha.
• The immediate response of this Caretaker government was to secure an emergency loan of $2.2 billion
from the International Monetary Fund by pledging 67 tons of India’s gold reserves as collateral. This
triggered the wave of the national sentiments against the rulers of the country.
• India was called a “Caged Tiger”. On 21 May 1991, Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated in an election rally
and this triggered a nationwide sympathy wave securing victory of the Congress.
• The new Prime Minister was P V Narsimha Rao. P V Narsimha Rao was Minister of Planning in the Rajiv
Gandhi Government and had been Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission.
• Another important feature of LERMS was that the Government was providing the foreign exchange only
for most essential imports.
• For less important imports, the importers had to arrange themselves from the open market.
• Thus, we see that LERMS was introduced with twin objectives of building up the Foreign Exchange
Reserves and discourage imports. At that time, the government was successful in achieving both of
these objectives.