c





 





 









c

ccÊc  c
c cc
 
 
 

 








  !!! "

#
$
! 
 !!! %

a
The era of free trade among South East Asian and China is begin and formally ensued in January
2010 by the ACFTA forum. Most businessmen in Indonesia are worried of this agreement, because they think
Indonesian industries are not well prepared. Many industries in Indonesia, especially those in rural area,
threaten to collapse because they already have a difficult situation due to the global crisis in 2009. The
decreasing of demand in several outplay industries push them to close the business. And the beginning of free
trade era will worsen this condition if there are no comprehensive action both in government and industries.
This paper have two objectives, firstly is to analyze existing policies pertinent with small and medium
enterprises. Secondly is to design policies that will significantly expedite the development in rural area.
c
The discussion starts with analyzing current conditions and answering these questions; what are the
characteristics of rural industries, what are the factors that lead them to progress and what are the threats
they occur. Then what are the existing policies issued by central government and local government regarding
small and medium enterprises. The analysis will use a system dynamics approach that was found by Jay W
Forrester. Researcher around the world often uses this methodology to analyze complex systems due to the
ability of this methodology to model causal interactions occurs in such systems.
c
By the end of the discussion this paper will propose an action plan consist of redesigning the existing policies
or propose several new policies if it is considered necessary.
c
D

policy analysis, rural development, small and medium enterprises, system dynamics.

c J

J c 

%(()



%((*


+


,



&

'



 


 

+ 

 +




, 





!

 



%(()
 
%((*



+
 +!

%(()




+




 


+











, 



-!(./!

%((-0




, 


, 


+ 

 




+
!


  


-!12/

,

,
 

%((1


5




+





 
6748

-!-(/!
 
 







%((30









   


 


,





, 


1!%*/0
+





%((*

  

+ 

 !c c
+$

,


1!(1/!



+


9
   

 




 



,
,

 
+










+

+





 

 



!

6740
%((38:

4 


, 


+




 

 

,








c
Êc
c


 
c
 c

9+
"
;

 
 

%((-'%((1
6/8

c
c
c c c c c

"!
  0
<
$0
5
 

5

")0.)
".0".
"%023
".03%
")0)1

%!


=
*02)
""0")
"(02*
""0"-
"(02%

.!
 
 
%*0(3
%30)"
%30-)
%30(-
%30*2

)!
  0
;

> 
"0(.
(021
(02"
(0**
(0*%

-!

  


10-2
30(.
30-%
303%
*0)*

1!
90
?

@
 
"10(-
"-0-1
"-0(%
")022
".023

3!
9
  



 

10%(
10-"
102.
1012
10."

*!
50

  




*0)3
*0."
*0(1
303.
30).

2!


"(0.%
2021
"(0(3
"(0(*
203.

;


 


-!(.

-!12

-!-(

1!%*

1!(1

cc cJ cc


  




,:

> 

A
%-




+




 
!c   


 
 



 






+!c 






0
+




,
!c 5

+


 
  0




 


!c


# 

 :
!c 



 

!c  
  0
 


 ,
$
!c 

,



4 

 

 0

+
!c 9














B 

!c ;


;


,

 
, 



 

 !

+!c 


,




 


 





0




 

 






, 
 
B 





  




+



!
9




 0
+

, 

,
$


 +
, 


0
+

A 










'



A

$ !
%((3

)2!*)


 !

 






!c 


 


  

 









,  








 





0



 

 




 
"22(

+



'%(((!

+

 

 
 



,
+$


 
 
B 









c  #c





 !

 



 


  

+




%(C%((*



,:






  

cc cJ c !c  $

+







,



9
%-'

 ' 





  
+

 D 













+


 


  




'
!
















-(


 


%("(0
 

 









 0
+ ,
-(

-((



+

 






+


:






 0

+ ,
-((

!c 



, 
+

3/





"(
+





 

+!c 
 
  




A


+ !

  


4 

9
+




%((3'%((*


+

!c 

 


 




 

%!**/


)20*%)0"%.
 

%((3


-"0%-30-.3
 


%((*!

%((30


 + 
-1!%./


 

;

c cJ c"!c


%0"(-!")


!


%((*0


 + 


-









 


 

;

,




-()!%.







 


 
 










%.!2-
/




%((3!


 + 
--!-1/



c
 c

 

;


%01(2!.1


!

60
 0
@
-,

0
%((38





9

 




 






 ,
$







G
$ 




,
+
 

 + 



 


 !

!
9




6"8!
-





+
+
21!2-/







%((3!

 



':








%((*0

+
+
23!()/








 



  
+ ,





+
%!)./


%((3!




 + 
-%!22/



+




  





 

 

%((3


+
.*!**/

 

,


+
!
6%8!
-



%((*6-0
%((28!


 

, 
:
9



 E

+










   


$'
'

69F80
+




 



 



!
4 0



,


+

, 

   


$'
'
$

  









,

,!
698!
6.8!
-



 

, 



F







+ 



 


 :




+

 ,
$
, 

 

!

%((*
 
+ 

"!(2




 
$

 


 



0




3)2
+



%((2!
 E

 0
9



 0

C


, 



,


%("(:







3..
+


 

!





 

+ 



 




 


!
-


 0






c%c c  c c 
cc #c


"10(((
C



 

6$


&! c
- 0
%("(8!

9
 

 








9

+# 














 !


 

 

  


  


 



















 

 


!
9
+
6?


@
>+0
%((%8

670
%(("8!

  



 D 
!

6?


@
>+0
%((%8
 

+# 
















E
+

 ' 


c $#J c# # c 



'  


 
!






c%cc #c&! ccJ c 


+
 

 

!
9





 

+

 




 



 







 






 




 

 + 


+ 



!
9




 






!
60
%((*8







,
, 

+ 



+


,$






 
0
 
 + 

 





+!
9



+








 



E

 !


+
+'

0


0







+


+



 



 
0
$


 !

A
 
0
+

  0


0
+
 0







  !







c 
#c J c c


,



0

 0
 

,

 

+
H
> 

+
 





,!
9
 


B 



5
 


 
   


9

0










,

D
+ 0
 0


"2-1!


 0




 

"8
9
-
:
%8
-
;  :







+


+
 
C
+!

.8
A+ 
:

)8
9

!


+
-


, 
 

 0
 
,




,


















0


0
  0


8





 D:
+8







:
8
9


 !

9
+$ 









B 




 :

8
<
 



 





:

0


 

 



8
9





:
8
9





 

 



0
+$




+ 0


 



!



+

 




 
!

 







8
 

6'   










 



 8:
+8


 




 












, 

+




,

 




!c 

+







 
B 






 


+


:
8
  


 






,
$!



  





 


  

+!c 
+

+
 

 
, 








 

!
9



 




+ 



 



9
-
0



D 




+










+


 !










 
0

9
-

!c 



,



+ 
$




!





,$
+


,
$

c
 c

+ ,
 



!

; 

<



 D



!

  

+


+
 

 
+


 
 
!

c
#cJ  J c
!c 








 


c c' c cc&'c
, 
 


 





+ 




6?0
%(()80


+




 

  

!









 



!c <$


 





$
+$



'$
+!c < 
?


+ 

+




+










+
!c >$
4 ,
$

 

D
 
+




4



 


A 




 
!c
!c 9
'

+
 

+!c < 
  

c
%c% 
c c !c  





 



 


,
 


 


 
!c 5


 


0


 




 


9
 


 
, 
6 
+0
%((38!

!
9





,


 

!c 
+
  
!c 

+


 0

 0


+!c 







0





$
!

!c 


+!c 

+



A

$


!c 





E
+
,
  !
<$


+ 

!c   




 D 

<


$





 !
< 

9





B


+
 $:




 


  !









+


 

!c   

+


 

+0

 
B
6
@
0
%(((8!

 


 !

9

,

 


 



9




+

$
0
 







+ 
 




+





 

$
+!










,


 

+
!
90

,


 


$



cc %c c







 


!

c

9
$



+


+

c$' c 
c 


 ,
$




+!
$



0

  













+
$
D
+








+




 

 !






 




A


+!


 





,
 
9
$

+



 


 

 !

!c  


+





!
9
 

,

 





$ 
  


B


+# !

  0
A+ 




$ 
  

+!c



 


 0


,






 




,





 0
   

0


+


+
!
9

,



 0



 !

$





,



9


 




 





 !

!
9
A
 

,
+







c

!
c!c" 
c)c
%
cc

9


$
+

 
+


cc(!c 
c 




  !



 
%






<


 
6 <8









 


+

!
5

?
A
+0
,



 






+
6


8


 







 
 0

 

 
6
@
0
%(((8!
9
-





,


 

 



 


<

+
6
8


,
6$8!
,




 D 


  !
90


<




 

,

 


 


5 
"
$

+



+


 !


 




,

0


 

  !


 

 
 






A






+
!
9

  

+

,


 


  

 
,
+

 !
9




!
 ,0



$

+

0


,
 

$





5 
%
 
-
@
9



 

c
 5 
.
 

9





 !

!c  



E




9





 

 
+ !



+

 



  




 
,


   


 
 



!

?
A0

 



 

?
A
,
!c 

 


A



 



+ 










E
 


   
 !











$

!c

 
, 
 
+$



  


$
, !
 ,0


 D 


  







E



 




,

 



 
 0
$
0





 

+

+$







 
+
+!

E

 !

9

 

 

,





 















!
c  ( J c
9




,















+0

 D 


  



 
 0
$



A 

 
0






0






!

5 
)
;






+






 




   


$
 



!
9
$







E!
9



 


,

 
.!






,

>

, 







!c 9




+

+






 








  0



 
, 

$
0
$




,


!
5














 


,




 




 




 

!


,

 

!


 
.0

+



,


 0




+!c 












 0
 0

 0

0
 






, 
 





 !
9
 






 


 




+
0


 0



0
B





 

 





 

 0


 

 !
9
,




 



 !



  

0

 


9

 


  

 



+

 !
+$ 
 





 D 
!

9



 



 

 



c

 0
 0


0
 




#+## # c

  0




  0

 D 


  0
-!
6%((28!
Small and Medium Entreprises Statistic

 
 0
0
$



 !

2007-2008.
H$ 
-!

Ekonomi: Bataviase!
6%("(0
H
%28!
 
H

c*& c$c ."0

%("(0


- 

 CC+ !
!C
C."3-2.

?0
!
H!
6%(()8!

 + 


$

 
678!
Infokop
0
!
)('))!


0


,0
 
+



?

0
!
!0
@
>+0
7!
6%((%8!

;
9



  





 


,
 
-


 










 !
-







  



-
 + 

?
 
-
9 


 

A

$ !
9
$








 


, 
9 0
4
'  


 
!


 

  

!
<

$


20th System Dynamics Conference.


 





0




 


$




 !



 

  

+
!

74!
6%((38!
Principals of Rapimnas 2007.

!c  





 




H$ 
74!

+
!
9
 

,






70
!
6%(("8!








 

A+ 



0




 !
The19th International Conference of The



!

System Dynamics Society.
  
 


+!c 



 

 

,

,
+

 !




 

 
!
9
0
7!
!0
@
0
!
G!
6%(((8!
System








 
!
9
Thinking and Modelling.
$0
4,
I



 

,





 


 

4,
I
< !

0

,


 D 


  
0
<!
!0
 0
G!0
@
-,

0
-!
6%((38!










!
 


H#

$

7


c
 c

 


 ,
G
$ !
Jurnal
Teknologi Industri
0
%)-'%1(!

 
+0
!
6%((30
  8!


+$




 + 

$
0
7


 
678!
Buletin Hukum Perbankan dan
Kebanksentralan
0
!
%2'.-!

0
9!
6%((*0
 +
"38!
Kajian: Ministry of
Cooperative and SME.
 
H
.(0
%("(0




 CC,,,!!
C$#C  *!JK)3"c


c"J* $J# c

c


< 


 


 

  0
5 


 
9

0
4



   
0


 !
?


 
 


 
 

4>0
 

%((%!
?




  




  0
$
, 
  0

 0
 




 

!
?

+



L   !!!M

c
c

c c 

< 

 


 

  0
5 


 
9

0


 



0

!
?


 

 






;#

 0




%((2!
?



 


 
 0
 
0




 
!
?

+



L#
$
! 
 !!!M

c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c