ICEP

DAWN EDITORIALS & OPINIONS

ANALYSIS
Dated: Saturday 25 July

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1 ICEP Dawn Analysis

 CONTENTS TABLE
Page Title Section/Category
04 Regulating real estate National Affairs
06 Banning Online apps Domestic Issue
08 Nuclear Security Current affairs
10 Turkey and the Muslim World International Affairs
13 A new axis of power Global Affairs
18 Deferring Poverty alleviation National Issues
19 Baloch Militancy trends National Issues

COLOURS Used:

Red for Difficult Vocab

Green for Important Figures and contents

Others colours used where necessary

2 ICEP Dawn Analysis

 DAWN+ EDITORIALS SECTION

3 ICEP Dawn Analysis

Regulating real estate | Dawn Editorial
Introduction:

THE federal government’s decision to set up the Real Estate Regulatory Authority is
expected to deliver effective and fair regulations in the country’s fragmented, undocumented
real estate market.

Key Points:

Prime Minister Imran Khan’s directive for the creation of the proposed authority has
reinforced hopes that his government is serious about regulating the informal real estate
market in order to realise its true potential and boost economic growth. The development of
a robust (strong) regulatory framework is crucial to creating an enabling environment for a
vibrant, secure and reliable real estate market, and the proposed regulator is vital to its
smooth implementation.

▪ The success of the government’s fiscal and monetary incentives for the construction
industry largely hinges on (depends on) the early implementation of a transparent
regulatory framework. The growth of a healthy mortgage industry is also linked to
the enforcement of a clear regulatory framework to mitigate risks to creditors.

Critical Evaluation of Pakistan 's real estate Market:

Pakistan’s real estate market largely operates in the informal economy and is
plagued(troubled) with numerous issues owing to the absence of an effective regulatory
framework that could protect the interests of all stakeholders — buyers, sellers, developers,
builders, tenants, etc. The lack of regulations often draws the stakeholders into long court
battles over property frauds and ownership/tenancy disputes, repels potential investors
because of unclear land titles and undermines public confidence in real estate. More
important, tax revenue collected from this sector remains far below its true potential because
over the past few decades real estate/property has become a haven for tax evaders to park
huge amounts of illegal money. In recent years, the government has taken several measures
to regulate the real estate market in order to document it and increase tax revenues.
However, these steps have met with limited to no success owing to the absence of a
coordinated effort, and a non-existent regulatory and policy framework to streamline the
market

Conclusion:__So far the scope and coverage of the proposed authority remains unclear.
Nevertheless, it is expected to introduce the country’s real estate market to international best
practices so that it can realise its untapped( unutilized) potential. In addition to
streamlining, harmonising and modernising tedious processes and laws related to land and
property development, it will be required to enrol builders, developers and real estate agents
to properly document them so that it can swiftly find a remedy to their problems, as well as
to protect the rights of consumers and tenants. The new body will be expected to work
closely with all stakeholders and act as a bridge between the government and private sector
in order to formulate policies and develop strategies to bolster (strengthen) the real estate
market by removing impediments. Once the government has delivered a transparent
investment ecosystem and a real estate market regulated by an efficient body, it will not be
difficult for it to attract much-needed foreign investors to this sector.

4 ICEP Dawn Analysis

 Notes: Questions-answer Formation

Q: What Decision has the federal Government taken about real estate market?

Ans: THE federal government has taken decision to set up the Real Estate Regulatory
Authority.

Q: Why this decision has been taken?

Ans: Currently, the country’s fragmented, undocumented real estate market is full of
problems. So,the development of a robust regulatory framework is crucial to creating an
enabling environment for a vibrant, secure and reliable real estate market, and the proposed
regulator is vital to its smooth implementation.

Q: What are some loopholes in Pakistan's real estate Market?

1. Informal cnomy:

The informal economy is the diversified set of economic activities, enterprises, jobs, and
workers that are not regulated or protected by the state. Similarly, Pakistan’s real estate
market largely operates in the informal economy, thus the industry hasn’t yet reached to its
full potential.

2. Absence of effective Regulatory framework:

Pakistan's real estate market lacks an effective regulatory framework that could protect the
interests of all stakeholders — buyers, sellers, developers, builders, tenants, etc.

The lack of regulations often draws the stakeholders into long court battles over property
frauds and ownership/tenancy disputes, repels potential investors because of unclear land
titles and undermines public confidence in real estate.

3. Insufficient tax revenue collection:

Tax revenue collection from this sector remains far below its true potential because over the
past few decades real estate/property has become a haven for tax evaders to park huge
amounts of illegal money.

Q: What are the expected reforms of real estate Regulatory Authority?

Ans: It is expected to introduce the country’s real estate market to international best
practices so that it can realise its untapped potential.

In addition to streamlining, harmonising and modernising tedious processes and laws related
to land and property development, it will be required to enrol builders, developers and real
estate agents to properly document them so that it can swiftly find a remedy to their
problems, as well as to protect the rights of consumers and tenants. The new body will be
expected to work closely with all stakeholders and act as a bridge between the government
and private sector in order to formulate policies and develop strategies to bolster the real
estate market by removing impediments.

5 ICEP Dawn Analysis

Banning online apps | Dawn Editorial
Introduction:

THE season of moral policing and censorship is yet again upon us. In a fresh move to
clamp down(restrict) on digital platforms, the PTA has banned video-streaming app Bigo
and issued a final notice to short video app TikTok for allegedly encouraging “immoral,
obscene and vulgar content”. (A ban on the online game PUBG has just been lifted by the
court.)

The regulator has said that despite communicating its reservations to both companies, it was
not satisfied with their responses. Therefore, it said, PTA had decided to immediately block
Bigo and issue a final warning to TikTok “to control obscenity, vulgarity and immorality”
on its app.

The Supreme Court's Objection on YouTube:

Worryingly, the Supreme Court has separately taken notice of ‘objectionable’ content on
YouTube. The court regretted that people using the social media platform “incite people
against the judiciary, the armed forces and the government” adding that “we are showing
restraint but this has to come to an end”. The objections appear to have sparked fears that
YouTube may be blocked in the country — as in 2012 when the platform was banned for
four years.

Critical Analysis:

PTA’s message that content on these platforms is “vulgar and obscene” is ambiguous. While
there is no doubt that online content which falls under the category of death threats, hate
speech and sexual violence must be reported and taken up with these platforms, the
regulator’s reasoning that these channels feature material that “have a negative effect on
society” is vague and reeks(be suggestive) of moral policing.

What are the regulator’s specific concerns? If they are about child pornography and explicit
videos of minors, it must communicate this to the company.

TikTok Company's response to Pakistan:

TikTok maintains that it has deleted 3.7m videos from Pakistan for violating its community
guidelines in a crackdown against content featuring nudity or sexual activity. If the company
appears to be open to taking action against content which is deemed criminal, the
government must engage with these platforms so that concerns can be communicated
effectively.

Conclusion:

As the Digital Rights Foundation put it, the justification of such bans to ‘protect’ children
is akin (similar) to banning highways to prevent road accidents. Similarly, any move to
ban a platform like YouTube, too, would be counterproductive; the earlier ban severely
hurt content creators who later flourished by monetising their content. The state must not
dictate morality to the people, especially when these apps are avenues for learning, income
generation and creative expression by young people who are devoid of entertainment and
opportunities.

6 ICEP Dawn Analysis

Notes of the Editorial:____

The concept of “Moral Policing” is a heated debate nowadays, Explain it?

Moral policing might be explained as:

"The repression of my rights and coercion of your ethical norms to forcefully align my
behavior and suit it to your criteria of 'acceptable conduct', through violent or illegal
means."

On the flip side, one may also define moral policing as:

"Working towards a better future by attempting to stop degradation of values, morals

and ethics in the greater interest of society, often (reluctantly) using dynamic and
compelling means."

Which of the above two definitions is right? If you have been on the receiving end,
you would propagate the first definition; if you are driven by a desire to help society
by implementation of small, but stringent rules, you would firmly stand by the latter.

Mr. X: Stopping me from kissing my girlfriend in the park is moral policing.

Mr. Y: Trying to curb carnal desires through regulating public displays of affection is
moral policing.

The amusing thing is that both parties feel that they are right; and that 'THEIR
TRUTH' is 'THE TRUTH'.

Why can't both be right? Why can't both be wrong? Since it is easier to live on with
our prejudices and biases, illusions and perceptions rather than understand our
opposition's perspective, conflicts are created and continued everywhere, including
Moral Policing.

7 ICEP Dawn Analysis

Nuclear security | Dawn Editorial
Introduction:

THE issue of security of nuclear facilities is a very sensitive one, and countries need to
constantly upgrade their protocols to ensure fool-proof measures are in place to protect sites.
There is reassuring news where Pakistan’s atomic facilities are concerned, as a recent
American study has rated this country’s protocols favourably.

Key points:

▪ According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, which conducted the study, Pakistan
has improved the most in nuclear security and in fact overall, this country is
ahead of India in the rankings. The study says that Pakistan “improved its overall
score by adopting new on-site protection and cybersecurity regulations, improving
insider threat protection measures and more”.

Detailed Analysis:

This analysis from an independent concern should put to rest any irresponsible conjecture
that questions the safety protocols of Pakistan’s nuclear programme. Moreover, on a visit
to Karachi in 2018, then IAEA head Yukiya Amano had said that the metropolis’s
nuclear plants were “heavily protected” and that Pakistan was “committed to nuclear
safety”.

Concerns regarding Nuclear Security:

▪ While the US body has praised Pakistan’s progress on nuclear security, it has also
sounded the alarm regarding the “decline in the rate of improvement to national
regulatory structures and the global nuclear security architecture”.

Basically, the institute is worried that geopolitical friction and the fallout of the Covid-19
pandemic was weakening global cooperation in the realm of nuclear security. Perhaps
this should serve as a moment to ponder the future of atomic power, both for energy and
weapons, for the global community. The risks associated with nuclear energy are far too
great, compared to its advantages, and the world should think about shifting to safer, more
environment-friendly alternatives.

Japan’s Fukushima disaster of 2011 serves as a reminder of what can go wrong at even
the best protected sites should a natural disaster strike. Moreover, when some states insist on
being exclusive members of the nuclear club, this causes others — with legitimate security
concerns — to proliferate to protect themselves.

Suggestion:

Perhaps in the best interest of mankind, it would be better to rethink nuclear power.

8 ICEP Dawn Analysis

 Important Transitional Words/adverbs used in this document

Important transitional words/ adverbs used:

Favourably
Importantly
Arguably
Worryingly
Similarly
Simultaneously
Unfortunately
Interestingly
Surprisingly
Seemingly
Consequently
Resultantly
Timely
Unbelievably
Subsequently
Comparatively
Undoubtedly
Additionally
equally

In addition to,
Furthermore,
On the other hand,
Moreover,
In contrast,
However,
Likewise,

Personally speaking?
Morally speaking,
Legally speaking,
Ethically speaking,
Strictly speaking,
Softly speaking,

On a serious note,

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 DAWN+ OPINIONS SECTION

10 ICEP Dawn Analysis

 Turkey and the Muslim world | The Nation Editorial
By: Asfan Tariq

Thesis Statement:

The Treaty of Sèvres, imposed by the Allies on the Ottoman Empire after World War I, had
virtually destroyed Turkey as a national state. The treaty was not recognised by the nationalist
government under Mustafa Kemal Pasha (later known as Ataturk). After the nationalist victory
over the Greeks and the overthrow of the Sultan during the War of Independence, Ataturk’s
government was in a position to request a new peace treaty. Accordingly, the signatories of the
Treaty of Sevres and delegates of the USSR (excluded from the previous treaty) met at Lausanne,
Switzerland. After lengthy negotiations, a peace treaty was signed in 1923.

Treaty of Lausnne: 1923 Introduction: Treaty of Sevres: 1920

A peace treaty officially
concluding World War I in
the Middle East, signed
between Turkey, heir to the
defunct Ottoman Empire, and
the Allied Powers, including
Britain, France, Italy and
Japan. The treaty was signed
in Lausanne, Switzerland on
24 July 1923. It replaced the
1920 Treaty of Sèvres, one of
the treaties signed in the wake
of the Paris Peace Conference,
that gave the Allies effective
control over large parts of
Turkey, following the Turkish
War of Independence. The
treaty contained a recognition
of Turkish sovereignty in its
current borders by the Allies,
in exchange to an official
waiver of Turkish claims to
the rest of the former Ottoman
Empire
The modern Turkish Republic was
founded according to this Treaty
of Lausanne 1923. Britain has
developed several unfair and
painful conditions to the rights of
the Ottoman Empire, such as the
abolition of the caliphate, and the
exile of the caliph and his family
outside of Turkey, and the
confiscation of all his assets and
the declaration of a secular state,
and to prevent Turkey from oil
exploration and to consider the
Bosphorus Strait which links
between the Black Sea and the
Marmara Sea, and then to the
Mediterranean as an international
corridor which it is not entitled to
Turkey to obtain fees/tax from
ships passing through it.
A treaty, part of the Versailles
Peace Settlement, signed
between the Allies and
Turkey, effectively marking
the end of the Ottoman
empire. Adrianople and most
of the hinterland to
Constantinople (now Istanbul)
passed to Greece; the
Bosporus was
internationalized and
demilitarized; a short-lived
independent Armenia was
created; Syria became a
French mandate; and Britain
accepted the mandate for Iraq,
Palestine, and Transjordan.
The treaty was rejected by
Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, who
secured a redefinition of
Turkey's borders by the Treaty
of Lausanne (see Versailles
Peace Settlement).

The Historical Treaties help us to understand modern Turkey:

The Turks have never forgotten the Treaty of Lausanne, which caused the reduction of the
geography of the modern Turkish state and forced it to give up large territories that were
belonging to it.

Understanding modern West's apprehensions:

We can understand some aspects of the ongoing differences between Turkey and the West.
Western countries fear that if the treaty were to not exist, Turkey would find the justification
for its intervention in Mosul, which has belonged to Turkey over four centuries until it lost it
in the First World War.

The need of Turkey's Leadership in Muslim World:

11 ICEP Dawn Analysis
Then, what will happen with the treaty in place, as it is in the world today? Turkey could
still play a dynamic role to unite Muslim countries which is an indispensable need of the
time. At the present juncture, Muslim-majority countries are facing many threats, including
terrorism and civil war, on top of a rise in xenophobia(fear of stranger or foriengers).
Terrorist organisations shed blood in our marketplaces, mosques, and schools. Muslims are
powerless, inactive, and are not fairly represented in international organisations. The Islamic
world has no prerogative to make and implement decisions to determine its future. The
Security Council’s structure needs to be shaped taking into consideration the world
population.

All Muslim Countries need to take a collective action against West propagandas:

Turkey has to call for fraternity beyond favourable relations among Muslims by suggesting
that Muslim countries should mobilise to cooperate in technical, trade, cultural, and social
affairs. All Muslim countries have to stand for “International Solidarity Day against
Islamophobia” and raise their voice against growing anti-Muslim sentiment. All Muslim
countries have to establish a joint media and communications center against anti-Muslim
racism. Anti-Muslim hatred has significantly risen in Europe in recent years. Far-right
extremism and xenophobia have fueled anti-Muslim hatred in Western countries, where
terror attacks by Daesh and Al-Qaida are used as an excuse to legitimise those views.

The Palestine Issue:

Touching upon the Palestine issue, all Muslim countries should also take a determined
stance against Israel’s injustice. By not respecting the Palestinian people’s right to live and
work in peace, Israel is jeopardizing (puts in danger) the future of the world and the
region.

Conclusion:

Thee only condition to overcome the crisis in the Islamic world is unity, solidarity, and
alliance. We can resolve every problem as long as we are united. If we (as Muslims) act
together, we will end the loneliness of Palestine which has continued for nearly one century.
It is possible to end the bloodshed in Iraq and the deaths of Syrian and Kashmiri children if
we unite under the leadership of Turkey.

About the writer:

Asfan Tariq

The writer is a civil servant at the Punjab Civil Secretariat. He can be reached
asfantariq@gmail.com and tweets @asfantariq.

12 ICEP Dawn Analysis

A new axis of power | Pakistan Today Opinion
By: Muhammad Irfan

The Iran-China strategic partnership and its implications

Thesis Statement

The USA is reeling as a result of the economic downturn and global isolation
triggered by the coronavirus. Beijing senses US vulnerability, feels capable of
confronting the USA, and is finding a time to forge a strategic agreement with
Iran. The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the Islamic Republic of
Iran and the People’s Republic of China, consisting of 20 articles and Chinese
investment in Iran of $400 billion over 25 years, with $280 billion for the
development of Iran’s petrochemical sectors and another $120 billion for the
country’s transportation and manufacturing infrastructure, covers banking,
commerce and services, transportation and railway, ports, energy, industry, and
dozens of other projects.

Tehran's growing ties with Bejing:

To benefit from Chinese investment and infrastructure projects and confront US domination
in the world, Iran has rightly capitalized on China’s growing influence across;

▪ South East Asia,

▪ Central Asia,
▪ the Middle East and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. A long term Chinese
commitment would help Tehran demand greater economic cooperation with Beijing.

Iran's look East Strategy: The end of non-alignment policy

Iran, which has a vision of non-alignment with the slogan of neither East nor West since the
1979 revolution toppling its pro-US monarch, is steadily turning towards Asia as part of its
Look East strategy. As in 2019, Iran, China, and Russia conducted a joint military
exercise in the Gulf of Oman.

Iran needs support in UN Security Council:

Moreover, Iran requires both China and Russia, with veto power in the UN Security
Council, to neutralize US hegemony, and to prevent any kind of sanctions by the United
Nations backed by the USA. Furthermore, an insatiable oil demand and military and civilian
technology pushes Iran toward alliance with the rising superpower.

The Sino-Iranian Deal:

The Sino-Iranian deal, if enforced as planned, would more effectively end Iran’s non-
alignment and incorporate Iran into the framework of Eurasia. This strategic shift and
incorporation into the Eurasia region indicates Iran has the capacity to find economic
partners and energy consumers among major economies of the continent to quench its thirst
for economic progress.

The Reason of Iran's move towards East:

13 ICEP Dawn Analysis

The failure of Iran’s repeated attempts to improve economic links with the West as a
prelude(opening) to improved political ties has been a major reason for Iran’s move
towards China and other Asian countries, regarded locally as the “pivot to the east”.

Iran welcomed US and European companies into the country, including many energy
companies, after the nuclear deal was signed in 2015, which offered to buy oil and gas.
However, the response to Iranian offers by Western states under pressure from the USA was
inhospitable. Washington was not interested in improving relations, but instead wanted
regime change in Tehran. The Iranian leadership soon smelled a rat.(idiom:be doubtful)

China's significant investment in Iran:

The infusion of a significant amount of cash into its economy, especially its energy
sector ($280 billion) and manufacturing and transport infrastructure ($120 billion) would be
a boost for Iran’s ailing economy and ease its economic burden. No doubt it will create more
jobs in Islamic Republic of Iran and more industrial growth. Iran’s deal with China is
expected to relieve domestic opposition too. Economic and political progress would boost
the regional status of Iran and perhaps allow opponents to reduce tensions with Tehran. Arab
states might rush to make their own special deals with China.

Reintroduction of US Sanctions on Iran:

Iran, which has much of the world’s oil reserves and is one of the top five producers of
natural gas, had to face an economic shrinkage of around 10 percent, largely due to the
reintroduction of US sanctions. Because of the covid-19 outbreak, Iran ‘s economy was hit
hard by the lowering of oil and gas roduction. Oil output and revenues have plummeted—
falling from nearly 4 million bpd in 2018 to just 2 million bpd nowadays, as reported by The
New York Times.

A secure and reliable economic deal: Leaving West far behind:

The Iranian Supreme Leader, a staunch(loyal) advocate of alliances with non-Western

powers, sees this deal as more reliable than with Western powers, that is, the USA or
Europe. US President Trump’s decision to scrap the Iran nuclear deal (2015) further
intensified public emotions. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who once wanted to open
avenues with the West, also advocated greater cooperation with Asian economies like China,
Japan, and South Korea. Following the futile effort to reopen Iran ‘s economy to the West
after the nuclear agreement, he now tries to negotiate a fair agreement with the only major
world power whose economic weight can match that of the USA or Europe.

Impact/Implications of Sino-Iranian Strategic Partnership:

Iran is in dire need of civil and military cooperation and voices on a global scale, which
can only be achieved by aligning itself with a superpower with enormous investment
potential in multidimensional sectors.In addition, Iran wishes to expand its sphere of
influence in the Eurasian region by acquiring full membership of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization. To this end, China, the founding member of the organization, is required to
support it.

Similarly, the Sino-Iranian deal will help provide Iran with a bargaining lever with
Europe and the USA over easing sanctions as the West will divert its attention towards
this holistic agreement. China’s greater interest in Iran should alert the USA to review its
past approach towards Tehran. It would also serve as a balancing factor in the normalization
of relations between the West and Beijing, which due to the coronavirus and their trade war
is at the lowest ebb.
14 ICEP Dawn Analysis
Beijing, on the other hand, is a big winner and plays a longer game. At Iranian ports, it
could enjoy preferential treatment and develop free-trade zones around the country. It will
also include discounts for Iranian oil. Iran is to provide regular and discounted supply of oil
to China for 25 years. China would also develop free-trade zones in Maku, in northwestern
Iran; in Abadan, where the Shatt al-Arab river flows into the Persian Gulf, and on the gulf
island Qeshm.

This agreement promises to greatly enhance China’s position not only in the Middle
East, but also in Central Asia, the Black Sea, the Caspian and the Mediterranean.
Through this route, Beijing would have a land route to Europe.Probably, China will have a
large security footprint at two new ports expected to be established adjacent to the Strait of
Hormuz, through which 30-40 percent of the oil trade passes. Oil supply to its market would
be assured.

In addition, China’s regional position would be strengthened by having a presence on

Iranian land, ultimately undermining US strategic supremacy in the Gulf. This could
also strengthen China’s international position. Deepening ties with Iran is an outcome to
safeguard its interests.

The very reason why the US geopolitical supremacy over the world is preserved is the
control of the world’s maritime routes. Among nine key maritime channels, the Gulf of
Hormuz significantly controls the major global outflow of fossil fuels. The Chinese presence
would give it a stranglehold on these waters through which much of the world’s oil transits.

The US assistance to ASEAN countries to limit Beijing’s scope and legitimacy on the
South China Sea would be of no benefit but to give China more options to use.
Similarly, it would be no use for the USA to condemn it over Hong Kong. Providing
military and economic assistance to the South-Eastern partners to contain China and
labelling it violation of the navigation freedom provided under UNCLOS (UN Convention
on the Law of the Sea) would not weaken China ‘s efforts over its territorial claims. China
will certainly consider alternatives.The deal has a provision of China building infrastructure
for 5G telecommunications network in Iran. It would provide an opportunity to Chinese
telecommunications giant Huawei, a company that is facing US sanctions, to enter the
Iranian market.

It would also bolster China’s new digital currency, the e-RMB, as a way to bypass US
financial systems, and reduce the power of the dollar. It would benefit China, the world’s
largest energy consumer. Furthermore, Iran could find a mechanism to sell its oil while
evading US sanctions.Iran having million barrels of oil and gas now a burden on Iran’s
economy to finance oil storage, would ultimately benefit from this deal. If the Iran-China
agreement were implemented, it would revive Iran’s economy and consequently stabilise its
politics. On the other hand, over the decades, China would have continual energy supply to
materialize its vision of connecting the Eurasian region and challenging the world’s US
unipolarity.

Conclusion:

Yet in global affairs, nothing is everlasting. The US returning to the Iran nuclear deal
and lifting sanctions against Iran, and allowing European and US companies to deal with
Tehran, may avert Iran’s strategic partnership with China.

15 ICEP Dawn Analysis

Deferring poverty alleviation? | The News Opinion
By: Mustafa Talpur

Thesis Statement:

Absolute poverty is a state of severe deprivation and denial of basic human rights.
Hunger and dispossession affect the entire life cycle, keeping people away from actively
and meaningfully participating in the social, economic and political sphere of life and
bringing immense suffering, pain and psychological effects.

Introduction:

Poverty alleviation must be the first and foremost development policy goal of any
democratic government, with clear time-bound targets and milestones to measure and report
progress.

Poverty alleviation: The most neglected area in Policy-making

Unfortunately, poverty alleviation has not attained the level of political priority in Pakistan
given its importance and urgency. Whether media or legislative discussions, one will hardly
find dedicated discourse to make it a part of essential political debate – except some nice but
unattainable documents in dusty official racks.

Two Major Global Commitments:

There have been two major global commitments – the Millennium Development Goals
implemented from 2000 to 2015 and now the Sustainable Development Goals from 2016
to 2030. Poverty alleviation has been the very first goal in both frameworks.

The Case of Pakistan:

In contrast, the debate in Pakistan has always focused on fabricating and fudging(falsify)
figures to show a reduced number of poor people for political gains rather than a real
decrease in the actual number of poor people. For a long time after adopting the MDGs(see
above) is the debate remained around determining the national poverty line and measuring
it.

▪ Later, the World Bank revised the global poverty line to $1.90. Simultaneously,
the Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative started measuring
multidimensional poverty – departing from traditional measures based on food calorie
intake. MPI included fifteen indicators of three broader dimensions of schooling,
health and standard of living to measure wellbeing.

The year in which the SDGs(sustainable development goals) adopted (2014-15),

▪ almost one quarter of Pakistan’s population lived below the poverty line and over 38.8
percent population was multidimensionally poor.
▪ In March 2018, the Planning Commission prepared a summary with SDGs
framework, with the baseline poverty figure of 29.50 percent of the population and
aimed to reduce it to 9 percent in the year 2030.

16 ICEP Dawn Analysis

 ▪ Similarly, the multidimensional poverty target was set from 38.8 percent to 19
percent.

COVID-19: Its long term implications on Poverty

The last two years have seen political change in Pakistan which followed change in
economic policy and slowdown in economic growth. We have also seen the policy rate
going up initially and then coming down a few months ago, significant depreciation of the
rupee, and food inflation; all these factors were not helpful in reducing poverty and in fact
added to the miseries of the poor. But it is certain that Covid-19 has a disproportionate effect
and will have long-term implications on the jobs and income of the poor.

▪ UNU-Wider estimates that the Covid-19 crisis could add 80-400 million new
poor, living under $1.90 per day. These numbers may reverse the gains made over the
last two decades in the fight against poverty. The estimates illustrate a resurgence of
poverty in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and Pakistan.

What this means is that people were just one shock away from poverty and may easily
be prey to the current Covid crisis. This also means that one out of three children born in
the year 2000, the year of MDGs, will still be living in poverty in 2030, the terminal year of
the SDGs, if serious and targeted efforts are not made. We are not talking about shared
prosperity and wellbeing, just about people having enough to eat for survival.

There Major Groups of Poor:

There are three major groups to form a cluster of poor.

1. The rural landless labourer/tenant,

2. urban informal or low wage workers,
3. and women workers both in rural and urban areas.

Augmenting the social protection programme is the way forward:

Given the slower pace of economic recovery this year, the only powerful policy instrument
available with the government is augmenting(increasing) the existing social protection
programme. Pakistan’s SDGs target was to reach 70 percent of people living below the
poverty line through social protection by 2030; this must be brought forward.

This poses a great challenge but also an opportunity. Challenge in the sense to have
registration of all the people who need to be brought under a comprehensive social
protection programme. But taking this challenge will be very instrumental for future targeted
assistance programmes, once there is valid registration and list of people with a unique ID.

Other Measures:

The other important policy measure could be to control the leakage, corruption and
cartelization of essential commodities to neutralize the effect of market manipulation
and artificial price hikes – especially in food items. Timely public-sector interventions in
these areas along with quality assessment and research on the effect of macroeconomic
policies on household level poverty can lead to evidence-based policymaking. Apolitical and
objective analysis can show how exchange rate, policy rate, subsidies, trade, taxation, energy
and fuel prices, and agriculture policy can help or cancel out social protection benefits.

Social protection benefits may help in poverty reduction if not supported with favourable
macroeconomic policy measures – policies such as increase in indirect taxation, food

17 ICEP Dawn Analysis

inflation, rise in energy prices, increase in utilities bills, inadequate provision of public
services such as education, health and water will cancel out the benefits.

Conclusion: Poverty our collective Failure

If children born in the year 2000 remain poor in 2030 as adults and transmit poverty to the
next generation, that demonstrates a collective failure and will inflict a moral wound on our
conscience. Therefore, delaying poverty alleviation is not an option, despite the challenges
posed by the Covid-19 pandemic. We need to fight back with right policies, attaching high
political priority, capitalizing on collective wisdom and forging partnership. A poverty-free
Pakistan is achievable.

About the Writer:

The writer is an Islamabad-based environmental and human rights activist.

18 ICEP Dawn Analysis

Baloch militancy trends | DAWN OPINION
Tariq Parvez

Important for Current Affairs

Introduction

ON June 29, 2020, at 10.02 am, four terrorists of the Majeed Brigade, a faction of the
Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), attacked the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in Karachi
with weapons and grenades. They had with them dried ration packs, indicating they intended to
take over the place and hold people hostage before killing them. But by 10.12 am, within 10
minutes, before they could enter the premises all four were killed by three well-trained police
commandos.

Analyzing the fault lines : programmed approach of terrorists

Two pointers here. One, the civilian police exhibited the capability to neutralise desperate,
well-armed terrorists, on their own, efficiently and effectively.

Two, the Baloch sub-nationalist(support for the interests of a subnation) terrorists

demonstrated a greater degree of commitment and sophistication in attacks than before. These
two dimensions have an important bearing on understanding the latest trends in Baloch
sub-nationalist militancy and the state’s response.

Trends of Terrorists Approaches

Foremost Trend

The most noticeable trend is that there has been a consistent, significant reduction in the number
of terrorist attacks by Baloch sub-nationalist groups (BSNGs) since 2015. According to one
estimate, terrorist attacks by BSNGs between 2015 and 2019, came down from 194 in 2015 to
51 in 2019. This is a reduction of 74 per cent in terms of terrorist attacks in the last five years.
This is no mean achievement and, to an extent, speaks volumes for the effectiveness of the
government’s CT measures.(counter terrorism) But one would hasten to add that there is
much criticism of the heavy-handed tactics adopted to achieve the reduction in terrorism, eg the
policy of enforced disappearances and ‘kill-and-dump-the-militants’ approach.

Changes in the nature of Baloch militancy call for a review of our CT strategy.

19 ICEP Dawn Analysis

Is this reduction in attacks sustainable using the present tactics? I guess not. The paramilitary
forces have played their role in reducing attacks, but continuing to use them is likely to lead to
a situation of diminishing returns, because they have become a symbol of oppression for
Baloch youth. We must start moving towards a response which gives a greater role to civilian
institutions mandated to maintain law and order in society. The rapid response to the PSX attack
shows that police can develop the capability to deal with such attacks, if provided due
resources and training.

2nd Trend in Balochi Militancy

This brings us to the second new trend in Baloch militancy ie a fundamental change in modus
operandi(method) in terrorist attacks. Earlier, BSNGs used to plant IEDs on railway
tracks/roadsides or carry out kill-and-run tactics. Suicide bombing, the most common tactic
of religiously inspired militants, was never adopted by Baloch militants. This has changed as
Baloch militants have not only resorted to suicide bombings but also conducted more
sophisticated attacks aimed at holding hostages, as in the attacks on the Chinese consulate
(Karachi, 2018), PC Gwadar (2019) and PSX (2020).

It started in 2011 when the Majeed Brigade declared itself a fidayeen group, carrying out
only suicide attacks. The first suicide attack they claimed was in 2011 against Naseer Mengal,
killing 13 persons. Such attacks may not have caused much damage till now but are likely to
continue, and though less in number, attract a lot of media attention here and abroad. Some say
the adoption of suicide bombing by Baloch militants is the direct outcome of the alleged
policy of enforced disappearances and killing militants and then dumping their bodies by
LEAs, besides reliance on excessive force. That is not to deny that this fault line is exploited
by India, Afghanistan and Iran who provide support to these militants.

Recommended measures to counter Baloch Militancy

▪ To counter this, besides neutralising the external factor, we must have a phased
programme of Balochistan’s civilianising internal security by going
for capacity building of police, ultimately replacing the Frontier Kinetic measures
Corps. included mean
▪ Also, there’s a need for a shift in our security paradigm so that non- concentric force,
kinetic measures form the main thrust(strike) of our approach to peak concentric
dealing with Baloch alienation, and kinetic measures are scaled force, and peak
back over time. power.

3rd Trend in Balochi Militancy

The third significant recent trend involves the effective leadership of BSNGs shifting from
tribal sardars to the educated middle-class youth. We see this happening in the two most
dangerous Baloch organisations, ie BLA and the Baloch Republican Army. While the former
is formally being headed by London-based Harbiyar Marri, the latter is led by Brahmdagh
Bugti based in Switzerland. The de facto(in practice) leadership of these organisations, which
is leading the fight from Afghanistan, are two militants, Bashir Zeb and Gulzar Imam. Both
are former leaders of the Baloch Students Organisation and belong to the middle class.

The third important Baloch militant organization is the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF)
headed by Dr Allah Nazar Baloch, a middle-class doctor (MBBS). The main fallout of this
‘non-sardarisation’ of Baloch militant organisations has been seen, for the first time in the
militants’ history, in the form of an alliance between four major groups of militants ie BLA,

20 ICEP Dawn Analysis

BRA, BLF and the Baloch Republican Guard, called the Baloch Raaji Aajoi Sangar. Earlier,
the egos of tribal sardars were a major obstacle in the setting up of any united platform of
militants. The creation of BRAS, is likely to deprive CT
forces of a major advantage they had over the
militants, ie tackling a fragmented insurgency. This
calls for a strategic and tactical rethink by the state, one
which focuses more on the Baloch youth and educational
institutions. Nacta can play a lead role here.

4th Trend in Balochi Militancy

The fourth trend in Baloch militancy is the increased

focus on targeting Chinese premises and personnel,
besides Pakistani state institutions and personnel. The
The National Counter
reasons given for the attack on the PSX by Majeed
Brigade spokesman Jeehand Baloch was that they Terrorism Authority,
commonly called Nacta, is a
wanted to target the Pakistani economy as well as Pakistani internal
Chinese financial interest which has 40pc ownership in counterterrorism authority. It is
PSX. This not only calls for a more proactive, mandated to devise a counter-
integrated and sustained intelligence collection but also terrorism strategy that should
hardening of the likely targets, especially those with address short, medium and long-
Chinese involvement. term goals and devise action
plans for their implementation.
Critical Analysis

These changes in Baloch militancy are fundamental in nature and call for a review of our CT
strategy. The status quo (existing state of affairs) may lead to a reduction in terrorist attacks in
the short run but would also add to the alienation of Baloch youth, driving them, in the long
term, into the fold of those advocating lethal tactics. The sooner we realise this simple fact, the
better.

The writer is a former police officer and Nacta’s first national coordinator.

21 ICEP Dawn Analysis