Philippines Economy - GDP, Inflation, CPI and Interest Rate 07/03/2019, 2*28 AM

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Philippines Economic Outlook

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February 19, 2019

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After economic growth fell to a three-year low in 2018, data so far tells a more subdued growth narrative moving into 2019. Manufacturing conditions
improved
1 at a more moderate pace in January, with business confidence falling to a near-record low and the slowdown in China weighing on export
orders. Moreover, December’s merchandise trade report, which saw exports contract sharply, suggests the all-important electronics sector could face
stronger headwinds in 2019, including the downturn in the global tech cycle. Nevertheless, economic growth came in a notch stronger in Q4 than Q3,
driven by improvements in the external sector and higher consumer spending. On the political front, the government passed the 2019 general budget
on 8 February after a standoff caused lawmakers to miss the deadline. President Duterte now has 30 days to sign the bill or veto certain provisions.
Delayed spending in Q1 due to the impasse could still weigh on growth in the quarter, although government projects are expected to be resumed by
the summer.

Philippines Economic Growth

The economy is expected to expand at a solid pace in 2019. Household spending should be buoyed by falling inflation, robust remittances, and a
tighter labor market. Moreover, fixed investment and government expenditures, while expected to moderate from 2018, will continue to support
growth. Slower growth in China and the region at large, and the ongoing Sino-American trade spat remain the main risks to the outlook.
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 6.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.2% in 2020.

Philippines Economy Data

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Population (million) 98.2 99.9 102 103 105

GDP per capita (USD) 2,768 2,849 2,881 2,953 2,978

GDP (USD bn) 272 285 293 305 314

Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) 7.1 6.1 6.1 6.9 6.7

Consumption (annual variation in %) 5.6 5.6 6.3 7.1 5.9

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Philippines Economy - GDP, Inflation, CPI and Interest Rate 07/03/2019, 2*28 AM

Investment (annual variation in %) 11.8 7.2 16.9 26.1 9.5

Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 10.3 8.3 5.7 7.1 8.4

Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 2.7 2.7 1.2 2.3 3.5

Unemployment Rate 7.1 6.8 6.3 5.5 5.7

Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.4 -0.6 -0.9 -2.4 -2.2

Public Debt (% of GDP) 49.2 45.4 44.7 42.1 42.1

Money (annual variation in %) 33.5 10.5 9.1 13.3 11.6

Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 3.8 1.9 0.7 2.2 2.9

Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) 2.6 3.6 0.7 1.3 2.9

Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 1.6 2.7 -3.9 1.1 4.4

Policy Interest Rate (%) 3.50 4.00 4.00 3.00 3.00

Stock Market (annual variation in %) 1.3 22.8 -3.9 -1.6 25.1

Exchange Rate (vs USD) 44.39 44.79 46.93 49.60 50.01

Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) 42.46 44.40 45.53 47.50 50.40

Current Account (% of GDP) 4.2 3.8 2.5 -0.4 -0.8

Current Account Balance (USD bn) 11.4 10.8 7.3 -1.2 -2.5

Trade Balance (USD billion) -5.7 -3.3 -12.2 -26.7 -30.0

Exports (USD billion) 56.7 62.1 58.8 57.4 62.9

Imports (USD billion) 62.4 65.4 71.1 84.1 92.9

Exports (annual variation in %) 8.8 9.5 -5.3 -2.4 9.5

Imports (annual variation in %) 0.5 4.8 8.7 18.4 10.4

International Reserves (USD) 83.2 79.5 80.7 80.7 81.6

External Debt (% of GDP) 28.9 27.3 26.5 24.5 23.3

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Philippines Facts
Value Change Date

Bond Yield 6.35 -4.11 % Mar 04

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Philippines Economy - GDP, Inflation, CPI and Interest Rate 07/03/2019, 2*28 AM

Exchange Rate 51.76 0.02 % Mar 04

Stock Market 7,675 0.66 % Mar 04

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Philippines Economic News

Philippines: Inflation slides within Central Bank’s target range in February
March 5, 2019

Consumer prices rose 0.2% over the previous month in February, matching January’s print.

Philippines: Cash remittances surge to record high in December

February 15, 2019

Cash remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) rose to USD 2.8 billion in December, a 3.9% increase compared to the same month of the
previous year.

Philippines: Exports tumble at fastest rate in nearly three years in December

February 12, 2019

Merchandise exports plunged at the end of 2018, contracting 12.3% in December over the same month a year prior, down from the 0.3% decline
logged in November.

Philippines: Central Bank keeps rates on hold in February; pencils in softer

inflation for 2019 and 2020
February 7, 2019

At its 7 February monetary policy meeting, the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP) kept the overnight reverse repurchase
facility (RRP) unchanged at 4.75%.

Philippines: Inflation eases further in January

February 5, 2019

Consumer prices rose 0.2% over the prior month in January, contrasting the 0.6% decline logged in December.

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