The first test a doctor would order to determine whether a person

is infected with HIV (the virus that causes AIDS) is the ELISA test. It
detects antibodies and antigens for HIV. A study in Statistical
Science by J. Gastwirth estimated that, if the person is actually
infected with HIV, this test produces a positive result 97.7% of the
time. If a person is not infected with HIV, the test result is negative
92.6% of the time. According the the US Centers for Disease
Control (CDC), an estimated 1.1 million Americans out of a
population of 321 million were infected with HIV in 2015. Using
the information above, determine the probability that a randomly
selected person whose ELISA test is positive actually is infected
with HIV?

a. What is the probability that a randomly selected American

is infected with HIV?
b. Using the answer to part (a) and the conditional
probabilities of positive and negative ELISA test results, fill
out the contingency table below:

ELISA Test Result

Positive Negative
Infected 0.343% =1.1 / 321
HIV

Not Infected 99.657% =(321-1.1) / 321

c.
What is the probability that a randomly selected person
whose ELISA test is positive actually is infected with HIV?
d.
What is the probability that a randomly selected person
whose ELISA test is positive actually is not infected with
HIV?
e.
Based on the answer to (c) and (d) above, is the ELISA test
effective?
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected
American is infected with HIV?
0.343% Of the 321M Population, 1.1M
b. Using the answer to part (a) and the conditional
probabilities of positive and negative ELISA test
results, fill out the contingency table below:

ELISA Test Result

Positive Negative
Infected 0.3348% 0.0079% 0.343% =1.1 / 321
HIV

Not Infected 7.3746% 92.2827% 99.657% =(321-1.1) / 321

7.71% 92.60%
c.
What is the probability that a randomly selected
person whose ELISA test is positive actually is
infected with HIV? 4.3427%
d.
What is the probability that a randomly selected
person whose ELISA test is positive actually is not
infected with HIV? 95.6573%
e.
Based on the answer to (c) and (d) above, is the Not effective: there is large statistical evidence to suggest both typ
ELISA test effective? is a large probability the test results in a false positive.
 321M Population, 1.1M individuals have the HIV infection -> =1.1 / 321

ence to suggest both type 1 and type 2 errors abound. I.e. there
alse positive.