Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Biden and the South China Sea:
More Continuity Than Change
Carlyle A. Thayer
November 12, 2020

We request your assessment of how the incoming Biden Administration will alter
present U.S. policy in four areas listed below:
1) It would appear that the Trump Administration has taken a more aggressive
position towards China in the South China Sea, with the first sanctions on companies
involved in China's territorial expansion there, a record number of freedom of
navigation operations in 2019, and calling most of China's claims to the sea unlawful.
With that in mind, in what ways do you expect a Biden administration's approach to
differ from the Trump administration's, and to what degree?
ANSWER: Fundamental U.S. national interests will not change when Biden takes office.
Two-way trade in goods between the U.S. and ASEAN countries is nearly $300 billion.
U.S. foreign direct investment in ASEAN countries is over $325 billion. Over $1 trillion
in goods to and from the United States passes through the South China Sea annually.
As a global maritime power, it is vital that the U.S. has unimpeded access to the South
China Sea so its military aircraft and naval ships can fly and sail to and from the West
Pacific Ocean Sea to the Indian Ocean and Straits of Hormuz.
2) How if at all is US rhetoric about China's contested claims in the sea likely to change?
Are there likely to be more FONOPs or less? And are we likely to see the sanctions
rolled back, stick or even added to?
ANSWER: Because there is bipartisan support for standing up to China, there is likely
to be more continuity than change in the Biden Administration’s policies towards the
South China Sea. The U.S. Congress is more likely to take the lead in imposing sanctions
and other punitive measures on China.
The U.S. Navy and Air Force will continue to fly and sail where ever international law
allows. The Biden Administration, following the lead of the Commander of the Indo-
Pacific Command, will continue Freedom of Navigation Operational Patrols at current
levels and conduct both unilateral and multilateral naval exercises in the South China
Sea. Long standing U.S. military engagement activities, such as Cooperation Afloat
Readiness and Training (CARAT) will continue. The U.S. Navy will continue to make
friendly port calls to Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Indonesia.
The Biden Administration will continue to back the 2016 Award by the Arbitral
Tribunal that heard the claims brought by the Philippines against China and reject the
legal basis of China’s claims to the South China Sea. The Biden Administration is
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unlikely to reverse the sanctions on Chinese companies that constructed the artificial
islands imposed by the Trump Administration. These sanctions are largely symbolic
and ineffectual and reversing them could incur Republican ire in the Senate. Both
Malaysia and the Philippines have indicated they will continue contracts with Chinese
companies on the U.S. sanctions list.
A Biden Administration will continue to offer support and assistance to littoral states
to enhance their maritime security capabilities. And the Biden Administration will
condemn Chinese interference and bullying of hydrocarbon exploration by littoral
states.
3) If changes in any of these areas are likely, what would be the strategic or tactical
thinking behind them?
ANSWER: When the Biden Administration takes office, it is required under law to
submit to Congress a National Security Strategy (NSS) within 150 days (roughly five
months). Once the NSS is adopted, the Pentagon will draw up a National Defense
Strategy of the United States and subsequently an Indo-Pacific Strategy. These key
policy documents will set out a comprehensive, integrated whole-of-government
strategy including for the South China Sea. These documents will provide the rationale
for strategic, operational and tactical levels of operations.
The Biden Administration will differ from its predecessor by dropping Trump’s
idiosyncratic and transactional approach to security policy. The Biden Administration
will tone down its anti-China rhetoric and work more closely with allies and partners.
A Biden Administration will re-engage with ASEAN and ASEAN-led multilateral
mechanisms like the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus.
President Biden and his Secretaries of State and Defense will turn up at multilateral
meetings with their regional counterparts.
4) Please feel free to add any related thoughts you'd like.
ANSWER: The Biden Administration will not ratify the United Nations Convention on
the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) but will adhere to it as part of customary international
law.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Biden and the South China Sea: More
Continuity Than Change,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 12, 2020.
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.