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Risking Regulation Regulating Risk Lesso
Risking Regulation Regulating Risk Lesso
Abstract
Debates over the future of new technologies frequently implicate governmental policies and regulation, the
purpose of which has traditionally been to mitigate the dangers of new technologies through promotion of
conditions of safe use. It is increasingly recognized, however, that regulation is predicated on a particular
conception of the nature of risk which may or may not correspond to the views and beliefs held by society.
Here I explore three broadly related questions in the context of the debates around agricultural biotech-
nology. First, what are the implications of varying conceptions of risk for regulatory policy in the United
States and in the European Union? Second, what are the implications of differing conceptions of risk and
resulting regulatory policy for agricultural trade relations between the two giants of international trade?
And finally, what lessons might we draw from contemporary disputes over agricultural biotechnology?
Introduction
Related Intellectual Property Rights Agreement and the Union for the Protection of
New Plant Varieties), access and benefit sharing (e.g., the Convention on Biological
Diversity), and biosafety (e.g., the Cartagena Protocol). But national governments,
particularly in the developing world, continue to face substantial challenges in their
effort to balance legal, political, commercial, social, ethical, and environmental
priorities and obligations. Weak capacity undermines efforts to establish strong
domestic regulations, while small but vocal lobbies on both sides of the biotech issue
have polarized debates. In such a complex regulatory environment, frameworks to
govern biotechnology and establish access and benefit sharing regimes over biodi-
versity, not surprisingly, have been slow to develop.
At the same time, the complexity of the policy environment within which new
governance arrangements are developing is beginning to be recognized, and tra-
ditional models of regulation—and more broadly of the role of science in public
policy—are increasingly subject to intense critique. The academic literature on the
topic has long recognized that regulation is not merely a technical activity in which
scientific assessment is unproblematically applied to a specific issue-area to develop
frameworks that minimize potential risks and dangers (Blowers, 1997; Bradbury,
1989). Instead, regulation necessarily involves ethical judgments concerning the
nature of risk and scientific knowledge and implicates broader questions of social
organization and structure (Beck, 1992; Leach, Scoones, & Wynne, 2005; Levidow
& Carr, 2000). Debates over policy are framed by the media and political actors, as
each side attempts to set the terms of the discussion in ways that favor their
preferred outcome. Further, as the literature from the field of risk communication
reminds us, even where there is general scientific agreement regarding the poten-
tial dangers posed by a specific technology, it may be difficult to convince the lay
public of the accuracy of the scientific frame, as the public often employs a funda-
mentally different conception of risk than do the scientists and policy makers
(Groth, 1998; Scholderer & Frewer, 2003; Slovic & Fischhoff, 1982; Slovic, 1987;
Slovic, 2001). Indeed, the greater the uncertainty, and the more involuntary and
invisible the danger, the more hesitant the public is to accept that risk—regardless
of the likelihood or magnitude of the risk event (Kasperson & Stallen, 1991; Slovic,
1992). Governance structures have consequently been slow to adapt and, in
general, regulatory practice continues to be founded on the perception of scientific
neutrality and expertise to the exclusion of lay knowledge and the artificial sepa-
ration of science and policy making (Marris, Wynne, Simmons, & Weldon, 2001;
Ravetz, 2005).
An analysis of the process by which regulatory frameworks to govern biotech-
nology are developed thus affords a unique opportunity to assess both the nature of
risk and the role of science and participation in policy formation in an environment
characterized by complexity and uncertainty. To that end, I take as my point of
departure the emerging debates around the nature of regulation and the role of
science in policy formation. In the context of biotechnology, such debates have
largely been articulated in the form of trade disputes between the United States and
the European Union over the justification for restrictions on trade in genetically
engineered foods and food products. I begin by briefly contrasting the nature of
and justification for regulatory frameworks in the United States, which legitimizes
its policy through discursive claims to “risk management” and “sound science,” and
Lessons from the Transatlantic Biotech Dispute 409
Science and Public Policy in the United States and in the European Union
The development of regulatory frameworks governing agricultural biotechnology
in Europe and in the United States has proceeded along apparently antithetical
paths. Although the two regulatory regimes share the common objectives (e.g.,
ensuring a safe and plentiful supply of food, encouraging rural development, and
promoting environmental sustainability) and have similar discursive formations
(e.g., basing regulation on risk measured through established scientific assessment
procedures), the regulation of biotechnology in the United States and in the Euro-
pean Union has, since 1990, diverged significantly in practice. While the United
States has encouraged continued private innovation in agricultural biotechnology,
strong public resistance in the European Union encouraged the development of
stricter regulatory standards and consequently slowed adoption and acceptance of
some biotechnological innovations. As a result, debates over the nature of risk and
uncertainty, particularly in the context of agricultural biotechnology, have become
increasingly common. The transatlantic rift over trade in genetically modified food
therefore appears to be intensifying.
Perhaps the most significant institutional difference between the United States
and the European Union rests in the choice of the lead regulatory agency for
agricultural biotechnology. Rather than imposing strict regulations on biotech
research, U.S. regulatory policy was intended to promote the widespread produc-
tion and adoption of biotechnology—especially agricultural biotechnology—as an
area of U.S. competitive advantage. Strict regulation, it was felt, would create
unnecessary and counterproductive barriers to the commercialization of biotech-
nological innovations. Industry representatives and academic researchers strongly
lobbied congress against such regulations, and by the late 1970s, the initial push for
strict regulatory frameworks to govern biotechnology in the United States had
waned (Wright, 1994). In 1986, the Reagan administration issued its “Coordinated
Framework for the Regulation of Biotechnology,” in which the U.S. Department of
Agriculture (USDA) was granted primary regulatory authority over genetically
modified (GM) crops. The Food and Drug Administration and the Environmental
Protection Agency were afforded secondary and supporting roles.
410 Noah Zerbe
development, the European life sciences industry employed fewer than 40,000
people, earned approximately $3 billion annually, and invested $2.2 billion in
research and development (Prakash & Kollman, 2003, p. 627). Furthermore, Euro-
pean research and commercialization efforts tended to be concentrated in pharma-
ceutical biotechnology, which enjoyed wider popular support in Europe than its
agricultural counterpart (Gashkell, Allum, & Starrs, 2002). Given the relative weak-
ness of the agricultural biotechnology industry in Europe, EU regulators faced no
real domestic lobby pushing for the approval of GM crops. Indeed, quite to the
contrary, what pressure was placed on European regulators was demanding
stricter—not weaker—regulation. This historical composition of social forces thus
helps to explain the regulatory frameworks deployed to govern agricultural bio-
technology in the United States and Europe.
That is not to say that the designation of the DG Environment as the lead
regulatory authority for GM crops in the European Union has insulated EU policy
from many of the same debates that occurred in the United States. Indeed, the DG
Environment has encountered some opposition, particularly from the other DGs,
most notably DG Trade and DG Agriculture, which desired more liberal, less
intrusive, and less trade-restrictive environmental policy. Debates over the applica-
tion of the precautionary principle in Europe, however, reflect both disputes
between DG Environment and the other DGs, as well as the surprising success of
DG Environment in implementing its policies in the face of opposition from the
other directorates.
The precautionary principle was established as the foundation for environmental
policy in the European Union in the Maastrict Treaty (1992), which holds that
Community policy on the environment shall aim at a high level of protection taking into
account the diversity of situations in the various regions of the Community. It shall be
based on the precautionary principle and on the principles that preventative action should
be taken, that environmental damage should as a priority be rectified at source and that
the polluter should pay (Title XVI, Article 130r 2).
Table 1. Comparison of U.S. and E.U. Regulatory Processes for Agricultural Biotechnology
Regulatory agency U.S. Department of Agriculture has primary Directorate General XI (Environment) is the
regulatory authority, supplemented by the lead regulatory agency.
Food and Drug Administration and
Environmental Protection Agency as
appropriate.
Philosophy of Substantive equivalence: genetically modified Precautionary principle: uncertain risks
regulation food and traditional foods are governed by associated with biotechnology necessitate
the same regulations. specific regulatory frameworks for
genetically modified organisms, and the
absence of specific, scientifically-informed
threats should not preclude regulation.
Basis of regulation Product-based: all products are treated the Process-based: different processes used to
same regardless of the process used to create products necessitates different
create them. regulatory frameworks.
in Europe and the United States and led to the emergence of the current policy gulf
between the two regulatory frameworks.
metric tons)
Dollars)
$150,000
1,000,000
$100,000
$50,000 500,000
$0 0
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
Value Volume
$2,500,000 9,000,000
Volume (in MT 000,000)
Value (in US$,000,000)
8,000,000
$2,000,000 7,000,000
6,000,000
$1,500,000 5,000,000
$1,000,000 4,000,000
3,000,000
$500,000 2,000,000
1,000,000
$0 0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Value Volume
Figure 2. U.S. Soybean Exports to the European Union (1997–2005) (Data source: U.S. Foreign Agricultural
Service, 2005)
416 Noah Zerbe
ernmental actors. The way in which such contradictions play out at the interna-
tional level provides the background for the development of local systems
governance for biotechnology around the world.
SPS rules are intended to ensure that a country’s food supply is safe to eat. In the
context of the WTO’s SPS Measures Agreement, national governments may estab-
lish their own standards for safety in the food supply. The WTO’s rules, however,
impose strict conditions on the exact nature of the restrictions imposed by national
governments: sanitary or phytosanitary restrictions must be nondiscriminatory—
that is, trade restrictions must not distinguish between products based on the
method or location of production; safety concerns must be based on sound scientific
evidence; members must use international standards, guidelines and recommen-
dations where available; while higher standards are permitted only when based on
appropriate assessment of risk; precautionary restrictions are permitted only as a
temporary measure while a scientific assessment of risks is conducted; and finally,
any SPS restrictions imposed on trade must be proportionate to the level of risk
represented by the good in question.
The rules established under the WTO for sanitary and phytosanitary restrictions
on trade echo the general trend in U.S. policy vis-à-vis biosafety. Risks are perceived
to be clearly identifiable, quantifiable, and discrete, and measures to reduce risk
must not unduly restrict international trade or the marketability of individual
products. While formally permitting national governments to pursue higher stan-
dards of protection, in practice, the SPS rules of the WTO make such restrictions
extremely difficult. In the vast majority of cases brought before the WTO’s dispute
resolution panel, higher levels of restrictions were ruled by the panel to represent
unfair trade barriers (cf., the WTO’s shrimp-turtle and tuna-dolphin rulings).
Perhaps the most famous example of this—and the case with the most direct
resonance for biotechnology—was the decision of the panel against the European
Union’s restrictions on the importation of beef and dairy from cattle treated with
Bovine Growth Hormone, in which the panel ruled that the application of the
precautionary principle may not override the general principles established in the
SPS Agreement. The dispute resolution board has also suggested that trade restric-
tions in multilateral environmental agreements, including the Biosafety Protocol,
might violate the rules of the WTO (Cors, 1999). Despite the ruling, the European
Union continues to maintain its restrictions on the importation of BGH-treated beef
and dairy, choosing instead to face countervailing sanctions against its own exports.
The BGH case provides potential clues regarding how the European Union might
react against a similar ruling by the WTO in GM crops.
Interestingly, the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety offers a much more permissive
atmosphere for regulation of international trade and thus raises important ques-
tions regarding the compatibility of the two agreements in international law.3 Under
the rules established in the Biosafety Protocol, the regulation and restriction of
trade in GMOs is permissible even in the absence of scientific certainty regarding
the impact of the organism in question. The position articulated in the protocol
essentially holds that lack of scientific evidence of risk does not constitute evidence
of a lack of risk. Consequently, states may establish regulatory frameworks to
minimize potential dangers to human health or to the environment even before
such risks can be proven to exist. Importantly, particularly from the perspective of
418 Noah Zerbe
many developing countries, the protocol also broadens the conception of risk to
include threats to socioeconomic threats to a given country or community. Article 26
of the Cartagena Protocol permits states to take into account “socio-economic
considerations arising from the impact of living modified organisms on the conser-
vation and sustainable use of biological diversity, especially with regard to the value
of biological diversity to indigenous and local communities.” The expansion of the
scope of risk to include not just impacts on human health and the environment is
the first of its kind, and was the basis of the decision of the Mexican government to
prohibit the cultivation of GM maize. However, the United States is not party to the
Cartagena Protocol or to the Convention on Biological Diversity, and is therefore
not bound by the agreements. Nevertheless, the tensions between the conceptions
of risk embodied in the WTO’s SPS Agreement and the Cartagena Protocol raise a
degree of uncertainty surrounding the future of direction of any international
consensus on the questions surrounding trade in GMOs.
ogy remains best characterized as a wicked problem. Both the United States and the
European Union have sought to demonstrate that their position is correct—and the
other’s is incorrect—based on available scientific evidence. Such contentions fail to
address both the complexity of the issues at hand and the vast diversity of stake-
holder positions involved in the debates. Further, exclusive reliance on scientifically-
provable facts ignores the questions which should be central in debates over
regulatory governance: Who defines the risk? On what basis? And what trade-offs
does a particular regulatory system impose? In the context of agricultural biotech-
nology, such questions are necessarily normative. Both the pro- and anti-GM
lobbies lay claim to scientific evidence to support their position. But even if one
accepts the scientific data set out by one side as preferable, information can only
translate into regulation based on specific normative claims. Field trials may inform
our understanding of the rates of cross-pollination between GM and conventional
maize, for example. But what level of genetic drift is acceptable? Similarly, if we
posit that foods containing GM ingredients might be labeled, what level of GM
ingredients might trigger the label requirements? One percent? More? Less? Sci-
entific inquiry must clearly inform our dialogue. But in itself, science cannot answer
what are fundamentally social judgments. Indeed, as Stephen Jay Gould (1998,
p. 812) commented,
Human choice, not the intrinsic content of science, determines the outcome—and scien-
tists, as human beings, therefore have a special responsibility to provide council rooted in
expertise. The content of science can only enhance or potentiate choices rooted in our
social and ethical values. In the end, it is human choice and not the content of science that
determines the outcome.
This leads to the third and final lesson. The discourse on risk analysis has
increasingly emphasized the need to move away from the expert-driven risk assess-
ment process and to incorporate greater lay participation in the development of
regulatory structures. Such inclusion, it is posited, is not merely part of the “tyranny
of participation,” in which popular participation is cast as a magic bullet for democ-
ratization and development (Cooke & Kothari, 2001). Rather, greater citizen par-
ticipation in the development of regulatory frameworks accomplishes two goals.
First, it provides a mechanism to expand the scope of knowledge and information
on which to base decisions. The local knowledges of farmers in both the developed
and developing world, for example, may inform decisions around the future of
agricultural biotechnology more completely than any laboratory experiment.
Second, as a wicked problem, decisions concerning the scope and nature of
regulation of agricultural biotechnology evoke normative dimensions that escape
traditional scientific analysis but which nevertheless must be addressed before
innovations in agricultural biotechnology will be accepted by a skeptical public.
Such considerations typify the resistance to biotech foods among European con-
sumers, who feel that the current generation of agricultural biotechnology (e.g.,
pest-resistance and herbicide tolerance) offers few consumer benefits but raises a
host of unresolved concerns (e.g., health consequences of consumption, environ-
mental consequences of production, concentration in the seed industry, ethical
concerns around “playing God,” to name but a few).
Ironically, the transatlantic trade dispute not withstanding, the future of agricul-
tural biotechnology is likely to be decided not by government regulators but by
Lessons from the Transatlantic Biotech Dispute 421
consumers. Science and scientific exerts must play a role in these discussions. But it
must be recognized tat the final decisions rest with citizens, consumers, and their
elected representatives. In Denmark, citizen juries were empanelled by the Danish
Parliament to debate the merits and dangers of agricultural biotechnology. Their
deliberations raised ethical, moral, social, and economic questions not traditionally
covered in scientific risk assessment, and provided the basis for the Danish regula-
tory system. The efforts of the Danish government were rewarded with a citizenry
that is, on average, better informed about and more accepting of biotechnology
than the average citizen elsewhere in Europe (Sclove, 1995; Sclove, 1996). If citizens
can be convinced that the regulatory framework in place is sufficient to protect
them from unnecessary risks, and if consumers can be convinced that agricultural
biotechnology can yield foods products with clear consumer benefits (e.g., low-fat,
low-calorie, and higher nutritional content in foods), then the technology may have
a future. If not, the consumer resistance which led to supermarket bans and strict
government moratoria and regulations seen in Europe will likely be the order of
the day.
Notes
1 This paper was originally presented at the 47th annual meeting of the International Studies Associa-
tion. I would like express my gratitude to the participants in that panel and to the editors and
anonymous reviewers at Review of Policy Research for their thoughtful input on this paper.
2 Mad cow disease, or bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a fatal brain disease affecting cattle,
and has been linked to variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in humans. BSE cases have been
identified in two-thirds of the EU member states, and more than 100 people, mostly in the United
Kingdom, have died from vCJD. A widespread outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the United
Kingdom in 2001 resulted in the slaughter of over four million sheep and cows. Both outbreaks
fundamentally shook European consumer confidence in both the food supply and in regulatory
structures designed to protect it (Berg, 2004).
3 At the insistence of the United States, the Preamble of the Cartagena Protocol asserts that “trade and
environment agreements should be mutually supportive.” Combined with the relatively weak enforce-
ment mechanisms embodied in the protocol compared to the countervailing duties imposed under the
WTO mechanism, there is sufficient reason to believe that the Cartagena Protocol will be viewed as
secondary to the WTO’s rules on sanitary and phytosanitary measures.
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