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DNL: Earnings Performance Improves in 3Q20, Ahead of Estimates
DNL: Earnings Performance Improves in 3Q20, Ahead of Estimates
DNL: Earnings Performance Improves in 3Q20, Ahead of Estimates
Earnings performance improves in 3Q20, slightly ahead of COL estimates. DNL’s net (AS OF NOV 09, 2020)
income in 3Q20 stood at Php573Mil, up 99% compared to the second quarter. On a year- INDICES
on-year basis, 3Q20 profits declined by a narrower 7% versus the 57% drop in 2Q20. This Close Points % YTD%
brought 9M20 profits to Php1.4Bil, accounting for 71.7% and 74.8% of COL and consensus PSEi 6,685.85 0.16 0.00 -14.45
estimates. Given the improving performance of DNL, which is expected to be sustained All Shares 3,961.12 16.40 0.42 -14.81
in 4Q20, its year to date results are slightly ahead of COL estimates and above consensus Financials 1,283.11 2.94 0.23 -31.15
Holding Firms 6,953.35 -89.38 -1.27 -8.41
forecasts. The outperformance was mainly due to better-than-expected margins with both
Industrial 9,028.59 168.26 1.90 -6.29
HMSP and commodity margins improving during the third quarter. DNL also saw better Mining & Oil 8,153.71 249.70 3.16 0.76
demand across all its business segments, helping revenues grow by 4.1% y/y in 3Q20 from Property 3,232.41 37.13 1.16 -22.20
-12.8% y/y in 2Q20. In fact, higher revenues and margins allowed 3Q earnings of DNL’s Services 1,517.84 5.70 0.38 -0.87
non-food segments to end close to if not above pre-COVID levels. Meanwhile, profits from
Dow Jones -67 -0.24 -0.75
the food ingredients business reached Php155Mil. Although the amount is still down 38% 28,323.40
S&P 500 3,509.44 -1.01 -0.03 8.63
y/y, it is much better relative to 2Q20 profits of only Php30Mil. Nasdaq 11,895.23 4.30 0.04 32.57
INDEX GAINERS
Top Stories Ticker Company Price %
MER Manila Electric Company 313.00 4.26
SMPH SM Prime Hldgs Inc 35.85 3.17
JFC: 3Q20 net loss amounts to Php1.6Bil; in line with COL estimates
AP Aboitiz Power Corp 28.40 2.34
DMC: DMC’s 9M20 net income below forecasts
DMC DMCI Hldgs Inc 4.97 2.26
Economy: Pfizer and BioNTech say COVID-19 vaccine 90% effective in phase 3 trial URC Universal Robina Corp 143.90 2.06
INDEX LOSERS
Other News
Ticker Company Price %
RLC Robinsons Land Corp 16.28 -3.10
Telecom Sector: Telcos’ capex to rise by up to 25% in 2021 AGI Alliance Global Inc 8.09 -2.65
Economy: Lockdowns should be ‘last resort,’ says Chua PGOLD Puregold Price Club 40.85 -2.27
Economy: Moody’s downgrades growth outlook for 2021 JGS JG Summit Hldgs Inc 70.40 -2.02
AC Ayala Corporation 789.00 -1.99
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DAILY NOTES I PHILIPPINE EQUITY RESEARCH
Market Summary:
The local equities market ended flat as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the
release of third quarter GDP data and amid post-election developments in the US.
The PSEi inched up 0.16 point or less than 1% to close at 6,685.85. The top movers were
MER (+4.26%), SMPH (+3.17%), AP (+2.34%), DMC (+2.26%), and URC (+2.06%). On the
other hand, the main drags were RLC (-3.10%), AGI (-2.65%), PGOLD (-2.27%), JGS (-2.02%),
and AC (-1.99%).
Value turnover declined to Php8.0Bil from Php10.1Bil in the previous session. Meanwhile,
foreigners turned net sellers, disposing Php394.7Mil worth of shares.
In the US, major stock indices (DJIA +2.95% and S&P +1.17%) rallied following the news
that the trial data from drug makers Pfizer and BioNTech indicated that their Covid-19
vaccine is more than 90% effective.
Stocks in Focus:
Revenues grow 4.1% y/y to Php5.7Bil. DNL’s revenues in 3Q20 grew by 4.1% y/y to
Php5.7Bil, in line with COL estimates (70.1% of FY20E) but ahead of consensus (75.7%
of FY20E). Third quarter sales improved on the back of better volumes. While volumes
are still down y/y, they are up significantly compared to the second quarter, driven by
the steady reopening of the economy. In fact, although 3Q20 sales volume of high-
margin specialty products (HMSP) fell 16% y/y, it was up 28% q/q. The improvement
in volumes can be seen across all business segments with oleochemicals and specialty
plastics showing significant growth as the transport and manufacturing sectors restarted.
The growing popularity of health and wellness trends also benefitted oleochemicals and
consumer products ODM (e.g. home care items). For food ingredients, sales volumes of
specialty ingredients and food safety saw a ~50% improvement relative to 2Q.
Source: DNL
Gross margin stabilizes in 3Q20. DNL’s gross profit margin (GPM) in 3Q20 ended flat
y/y at 20.0%. This was a significant improvement relative to 2Q, which saw GPM declining
by 390 bps y/y. Recall that commodity margins were very weak in 2Q at only 1.5%, largely
due to the weak demand amid the pandemic and quarantine restrictions. Nevertheless,
margins of commodities have recovered back to more normal levels in 3Q at 7.2%. GPM
of HMSP also improved to 25.4% in 9M20 from 24.4% in 1H20 despite higher raw material
prices. The overall improvement in margins despite cost pressures shows DNL’s ability to
pass on higher costs notwithstanding the challenging economic environment, thanks to
its focus on offering high quality specialized products.
Robust export sales amid accelerating health and wellness trends. DNL’s export
revenues grew 58% y/y in 3Q20, bringing 9M20 export sales up 37% y/y. The strong
performance of exports was mainly due to robust food and oleochemical sales as
these segments benefitted from accelerating health and wellness trends. Food exports
were robust due to the increasing demand for coconut products given their anti-viral
properties. Specialty products related to personal care and organic cleaning products
(e.g. soap, detergents) also enjoyed higher demand amid the pandemic. Management
expects these trends to remain even after the pandemic ends. Hence, the strong growth
of exports will likely be sustained going forward. Note that the strong performance
of exports also helped boost overall margins, given the better product mix of exports
relative to the domestic business.
After factoring in the said changes, our net income forecast increased by 1.6% in 2020
and 3.3% in 2021, while our FV estimate increased by 3.1% to Php6.6/sh.
Downgrading to HOLD. Despite DNL’s strong 3Q20 performance and the slight increase
in our FV estimate, we are downgrading our rating on DNL from BUY to HOLD. We
continue like DNL given its positive long-term growth prospects. The company is also
clearly on a path to recovery alongside the economy. However, DNL’s share price has
increased significantly, rising by 50% from its March low. Based on its current price of
Php6.63/sh, the stock is already fairly valued. In fact, it is trading at par with its historical
average P/E of around 24X.
Top Stories:
John Martin Luciano, CFA JFC: 3Q20 net loss amounts to Php1.6Bil; in line with
Senior Research Analyst
COL estimates
Jollibee Foods Corporation
HOLD 3Q20 net loss amounts to Php1.6Bil; in line with COL estimates. JFC reported a net
Php129.00 loss of Php1.6Bil in the third quarter, a reversal from the Php1.7Bil income booked in the
same quarter last year. This brought net losses for the first nine months to Php13.5Bil vs
the Php4.2Bil income last year. Despite the significant net loss, we believe that JFC’s is
on track to meet our full-year forecast of Php13.0Bil net loss. However, the company’s
performance lags behind consensus expectations as consensus is forecasting only a
Php9.3Bil net loss for the full year. Earnings met our expectations as the higher than
expected revenues were offset by higher than expected tax expenses. Note that the drop
in revenues during the quarter narrowed to 30.6% y/y (vs -46.6% y/y in 2Q20) as global
same store sales growth (SSSG) declined at a slower pace of 35.3% y/y (vs -41.0% y/y in
2Q20). On the other hand, operating losses amounted to Php3.3Bil in 3Q20 and Php9.9Bil
in 9M20. However, this includes one-off costs related to the business transformation
program. Note that the Php7Bil in provisions booked under other income and expenses
during the second quarter will gradually be transferred to operating expenses as they
are incurred.
Sales improve sequentially. System-wide sales during the third quarter fell at a slower
pace of 29.2% y/y to Php40.6Bil (vs -48.4% in 2Q20). This was amidst an improvement
in global same store sales as mobility restrictions in various countries were gradually
reduced and stores were gradually re-opened. In particular, the decline in global same
store sales in the third quarter narrowed to 35.3% (PH -45.6%, China -7.7%, North
America ex-CBTL-6.6%, EMEAA -11.8%, SuperFoods Group -14.0%, and CBTL -21.6%)
from the 41.0% drop in the previous quarter (PH -50.4%, China -29.9%, North America
ex-CBTL -15.0%, EMEAA -25.5%, SuperFoods Group -29.3%, and CBTL -25.4%). Note that
the improvement in SSSG was mostly from the international segment as domestic SSSG
remained weak. In fact, the company observed that same store sales have recovered
faster in developed countries than in emerging markets. Meanwhile, the company has
been able to re-open 93% of its store network as of end-September from 88% since
the start of the quarter. Revenues during the third quarter and the first nine months
declined by 30.6% y/y and 27.1% y/y to Php30.0Bil and Php92.7Bil, respectively. This
outperformed our estimate but trailed consensus forecast at 76.8% and 65.8% of full year
forecasts, respectively. We believe the improvement in sales will continue going forward
as the effects of the pandemic and lockdowns ease.
Meanwhile, a total of 339 stores (118 domestic and 221 international) were permanently
closed in the first nine months of the year due to challenging business conditions. The
company guided that a total of 507 stores will be permanently closed this year. This
is higher than its previous guidance of 416 stores. Recall that this forms part of the
company’s business transformation strategy, which entails the rationalization of store
network, store staffing and operations, supply chain and support groups on a worldwide
basis.
Maintain HOLD. We currently have a HOLD rating on JFC with a FV estimate of Php129/
sh. We believe that its domestic business will likely remain weak as delivery and take-out
sales will not be able to offset the weaker dine-in sales. However, we are encouraged by
the sequential improvement in sales, driven by its international segment. We believe that
this will likely lead the growth going forward. Note that the company is also confident
that Smash Burger and CBTL will already be profitable next year. At its current price, JFC
is trading at 52.3X 2021E P/E, significantly above its historical average.
of our full year forecast, while, effective tariff declined 4.6% to Php42.82/cu.m, 4.7% lower
than forecast. The decline in tariff was the result of sales volume being skewed towards
residential customers (which has lower tariff compared to industrial and commercial
customers), Earnings beat forecast mainly due to the lower than expected operating
expense. Operating expense rose 8% to Php8.1Bil, representing only 56% of our full year
forecast.
Reiterate BUY rating on DMC. We are maintaining our BUY rating on DMC with a FV
estimate of Php8.63/sh. Despite the very poor earnings outlook of the company, we
believe that much of the negative news is already priced-in. The stock is trading at only
6X 21E P/E based on our earnings forecast. Capital appreciation is also significant at 73%
based on our fair value estimate.
Other News:
John Martin Luciano, CFA According to Fitch Ratings, the capex of the telco companies is expected to increase by
Frances Rolfa Nicolas 20-25% next year, driven by the government’s push for significant network improvements
Justin Richmond Cheng
and the planned commercial launch of DITO Telecommunity in March 2021. During their
Adrian Alexander Yu
analyst briefing, GLO mentioned that they are planning to build their fiber-to-the-homes
Kerwin Malcolm Chan
(FTTH) network more aggressively in 2021 while continuing their cell tower builds. Also,
TEL is aiming to add around 2,000 cell sites next year while further expanding its fiber
network. The credit rating agency expects the telco sector’s revenues to grow by mid-to-
high single digits in 2021 as the incumbent companies accelerate their network rollout
in home broadband and mobile going forward. (Source: Bworldonline)
Acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua said the government’s
decision to ease lockdown restrictions and further reopen the economy will likely boost
growth this fourth quarter. Strict lockdowns should be the “last resort” in the fight against
COVID-19. The economic team had recommended to the IATF for the Management
of Emerging Infectious Diseases to shift its policy from total risk avoidance to risk
management. the economic team’s recommendations included increasing the capacity
of mass transportation, allowing businesses to run at 100% capacity, boosting health
systems, shortening curfew hours, and adopting localized quarantines if COVID-19 cases
spike. (Source: Businessworld)
Moody’s Analytics downgraded its growth outlook for the Philippines for 2021 to 6.2%
from its 7.8% estimate issued last month. The revision was mainly due to the smaller fiscal
policy response than what was previously assumed. Meanwhile, Moody’s upgraded its
2020 GDP outlook to minus 8.2% against the earlier forecast of minus 9.2% citing some
improvements seen in manufacturing and trade. For the third quarter Moody’s said that
the country’s GDP likely contracted 6% with the easing of restrictions during the period.
Note that the government expects the economy to contract between 4.5% and 6.6%
before bouncing back with growth of 6.5% to 7.5% next year. (source: Businessworld)
I M P O R TA N T R AT ING DEFINITIONS
BUY
Stocks that have a BUY rating have attractive fundamentals and valuations based on our analysis. We expect the share price to outperform the market in the
next six to 12 months.
HOLD
Stocks that have a HOLD rating have either 1) attractive fundamentals but expensive valuations 2) attractive valuations but near-term earnings outlook might
be poor or vulnerable to numerous risks. Given the said factors, the share price of the stock may perform merely in line or underperform in the market in the
next six to twelve months.
SELL
We dislike both the valuations and fundamentals of stocks with a SELL rating. We expect the share price to underperform in the next six to12 months.
I M P O R TA N T DISC L AIM ER
Securities recommended, offered or sold by COL Financial Group, Inc. are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.
Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and said information may
be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COL’s Equity Research Department as of the date of the report and are
subject to change without prior notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of
a security. COL Financial and/or its employees not involved in the preparation of this report may have investments in securities of derivatives of the companies
mentioned in this report and may trade them in ways different from those discussed in this report.
CO L R E S EAR C H T EAM
JOHN MARTIN LUCIANO, CFA FRANCES ROLFA NICOLAS JUSTIN RICHMOND CHENG, CFA
SENIOR RESEARCH ANALYST RESEARCH ANALYST RESEARCH ANALYST
john.luciano@colfinancial.com rolfa.nicolas@colfinancial.com justin.cheng@colfinancial.com