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October 2019 Weather Bulletin
October 2019 Weather Bulletin
October 2019 Weather Bulletin
It is far from landmass and does not have any effect on the country at the moment.
PAGASA Weather Specialist Aldczar Aurelio said the LPA only has a slim chance of
developing into a tropical depression from Tuesday until Friday morning, October 4.
In the meantime, the entire country will have generally fair weather for the next 24
hours, with just isolated rainshowers or localized thunderstorms.
MANILA, Philippines – The low pressure area (LPA) inside the Philippine Area of
Responsibility (PAR) is unlikely to become a tropical cyclone, according to the state
weather bureau.
It does not have any effect on the country yet, since it remains far from land.
But PAGASA Weather Specialist Gener Quitlong said the LPA may make landfall in
Northern Luzon or Central Luzon by Friday, October 4, or Saturday, October 5.
The LPA could then dissipate after hitting land, added Quitlong.
In the meantime, the entire country will continue to experience warm and humid
weather, with isolated rainshowers or localized thunderstorms.
The low pressure area inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility is 790 kilometers east
of Casiguran, Aurora, as of Thursday afternoon, October 3.
MANILA, Philippines – The state weather bureau continues to monitor a low pressure
area (LPA) inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), while a shallow LPA was
spotted outside.
PAGASA Weather Specialist Gener Quitlong said the LPA could make landfall in
Northern Luzon on Saturday, October 5. But it is not expected to develop into a tropical
cyclone.
Meanwhile, the shallow LPA outside PAR could become an LPA and possibly enter this
coming weekend. Updates are expected in the next few days.
At the moment, Quitlong said both the LPA and the shallow LPA are still too far to
affect the Philippines.
The entire country will continue to have fair weather, with just isolated rainshowers or
localized thunderstorms.
The low pressure area east of Aurora is affecting some areas in Luzon on Friday,
October 4.
MANILA, Philippines – The low pressure area (LPA) inside the Philippine Area of
Responsibility (PAR) began bringing some rain on Friday, October 4.
Cagayan Valley
Cordillera Administrative Region
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Aurora
Quezon
Catanduanes
PAGASA previously said that the LPA could make landfall in Northern Luzon on
Saturday, October 5.
But PAGASA Weather Specialist Ana Clauren said on Friday that the LPA remains
unlikely to become a tropical cyclone, and may just dissipate after landfall.
Meanwhile, the state weather bureau continues to monitor an LPA outside PAR, which
has no effect on the country yet. Updates are expected in the coming days.
The rest of the country, not affected by the LPA inside PAR, will continue to have fair
weather on Friday. There may only be isolated rainshowers or localized thunderstorms,
mostly in the afternoon or evening.
MANILA, Philippines – A tropical cyclone could enter the Philippine Area of
Responsibility (PAR) either on Thursday, October 10, or Friday, October 11.
Hagibis was previously only a low pressure area (LPA) last Friday, October 4, then
developed into a tropical depression and subsequently into a tropical storm.
The tropical storm has maximum winds of 85 km/h and gustiness of up to 105 km/h.
By the time it enters PAR either on Thursday or Friday, it could already be a typhoon,
said PAGASA Weather Specialist Gener Quitlong. He added that Hagibis may
eventually reach super typhoon status as well, the strongest classification
When Hagibis enters PAR, it will be given the local name Perla.
Quitlong said initial data show that Hagibis or the potential Perla is unlikely to make
landfall in the Philippines, but this scenario could still change since the tropical storm is
still very far.
Meanwhile, the LPA that was inside PAR has since made its exit, and is now 645
kilometers west of Sinait, Ilocos Sur.
It weakened into a shallow LPA after hitting extreme Northern Luzon. It is expected to
dissipate after hitting the southern part of China, according to Quitlong.
In the meantime, the entire Philippines will have generally fair weather until Monday,
October 7, with just isolated rainshowers or localized thunderstorms
MANILA, Philippines – Hagibis, the tropical storm that the state weather bureau was
monitoring outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), is now a typhoon.
PAGASA had said on Sunday afternoon, October 6, that Hagibis was over 3,000
kilometers east of Luzon.
The typhoon could now enter PAR either on Wednesday, October 9, or Thursday,
October 10, said PAGASA Weather Specialist Loriedin de la Cruz on Monday.
But De La Cruz said the chance of Hagibis making landfall in the Philippines remains
low, so far.
(Although that's the case, continue monitoring PAGASA updates regarding this
weather disturbance.)
In the meantime, the entire country is experiencing generally fair weather on Monday,
with just isolated rainshowers or localized thunderstorms.
MANILA, Philippines – The state weather bureau continues to monitor Typhoon
Hagibis, which is still outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
The typhoon now has maximum winds of 200 km/h from the previous 175 km/h a day
ago, and gustiness of up to 245 km/h from the previous 215 km/h.
PAGASA Weather Specialist Aldczar Aurelio said Hagibis, if it maintains its direction,
might just pass through the right corner of PAR.
If that happens, Aurelio said, Hagibis would only be inside PAR for less than a day.
PAGASA earlier said Hagibis or the potential Perla could enter PAR by Friday, October
11.
In the meantime, fair weather will persist in the entire country on Wednesday, October
9. But isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms are expected, especially in the afternoon
or evening.
MANILA, Philippines – State forecasters no longer expect the powerful Typhoon
Hagibis to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
The typhoon is moving north northwest at 25 kilometers per hour (km/h), heading for
Japan. It was previously expected to enter PAR by Friday, October 11.
PAGASA said Hagibis could make landfall in Japan's eastern Chubu-western Kanto
region between Saturday evening, October 12, and early Sunday morning, October 13.
The typhoon continues to have maximum winds of 200 km/h and gustiness of up to
245 km/h.
While Hagibis is not seen to enter PAR, PAGASA Weather Specialist Gener Quitlong
said the typhoon's trough or extension will affect the Visayas and Mindanao.
Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms due to Hagibis' trough are expected in the
following areas in the next 24 hours:
Visayas
Caraga
Davao Region
Northern Mindanao
Zamboanga Peninsula
The rest of the country will have fair weather, with only isolated rainshowers or
thunderstorms, typically in the afternoon or evening
The low pressure area is 1,160 kilometers east northeast of the Visayas as of Tuesday
afternoon, October 15.
MANILA, Philippines – The state weather bureau spotted a low pressure area (LPA)
along the boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
According to PAGASA Weather Specialist Ana Clauren, the LPA only has a slim chance
of developing into a tropical depression.
But Clauren said the LPA could go near extreme Northern Luzon and possibly bring
rain in the coming days.
In the meantime, the northeasterly surface windflow is affecting Luzon within the next
24 hours. It could bring light rain to Batanes and Cagayan in particular, but PAGASA
said there will be "no significant impact."
In Mindanao and in parts of the Visayas, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is
the prevailing system.
PAGASA defines the ITCZ as a "series of low pressure areas brought about by
converging northeast and southeast winds that cause thunderstorms and rainshowers."
The rest of the country will have generally fair weather, with just isolated rainshowers
or localized thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon or evening.
MANILA, Philippines – The low pressure area (LPA) inside the Philippine Area of
Responsibility (PAR) developed into a tropical depression at 8 am on Wednesday,
October 16. It has been given the local name Perla.
It is over the Pacific Ocean, moving west northwest at 20 kilometers per hour (km/h).
At the moment, Perla has maximum winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.
PAGASA said Perla is less likely to intensify into a tropical storm, and may even
weaken into an LPA again while still inside PAR. There are also no tropical cyclone
wind signals raised, so far.
PAGASA Senior Weather Specialist Chris Perez explained that Perla will not yet affect
any part of the country on Wednesday and on Thursday, October 17.
But the tropical depression may cause bad weather in the following areas beginning
Friday evening, October 18, or Saturday morning, October 19:
Batanes
Cagayan including Babuyan Group of Islands
Apayao
Tropical Depression Perla has maximum winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70
km/h as of Thursday afternoon, October 17.
The tropical depression is already 840 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan, now moving
north northwest at 15 km/h from 10 km/h on Thursday morning.
PAGASA said Perla is less likely to intensify into a tropical storm, and may even return
to being a low pressure area while still inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
There are also no areas under tropical cyclone wind signals, so far.
But Perla could hit land or make a close approach to extreme Northern Luzon.
Tropical Storm Perla is given the international name Neoguri as it strengthens early
Friday, October 18.
But Perla is seen to return to being a tropical depression, and then eventually into a low
pressure area, while still inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
It is already 790 kilometers east of Basco, Batanes, almost stationary or hardly moving at
the moment.
PAGASA Weather Specialist Ezra Bulquerin noted that Perla has significantly shifted
direction, and is now expected to move northeast and then north. Landfall is unlikely
given this track.
Severe Tropical Storm Perla (Neoguri) has maximum winds of 95 km/h and gustiness
of up to 115 km/h as of Saturday morning, October 19.
MANILA, Philippines – Perla (Neoguri) intensified from a tropical storm into a severe
Perla is already 600 kilometers east of Basco, Batanes, moving west northwest at 15
km/h after being almost stationary or barely moving for most of Friday, October 18.
The severe tropical storm is not expected to make landfall in the country and there are
no areas under tropical cyclone wind signals.
PAGASA said Perla is still not seen to bring "significant high-impact weather" to
extreme Northern Luzon.
Typhoon Perla (Neoguri) is already 635 kilometers east northeast of Basco, Batanes, and
could leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility by early Monday, October 21.
The typhoon is already 635 kilometers east northeast of Basco, Batanes. It slightly
accelerated and is now moving north northeast at 15 km/h, from a very slow pace.
Perla is not expected to make landfall in the country and there are no areas under
tropical cyclone wind signals. PAGASA said no "significant high-impact weather" is
expected.
Based on Perla's latest forecast track, it might leave PAR between Sunday evening and
Monday morning, October 21.