TALLER NO 3 (INTERVALOS DE CONFIANZA PARTE II)

PRESENTADO POR
CABARCAS MENDOZA ÁNGEL
PALACIO ZAPATA JUAN PABLO

PROFESOR
ING, MAGISTER WEIMAR ARDILA RUEDA

ESTADÍSTICA INFERENCIAL GRUPO S2

UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DEL CARIBE

BARRANQUILLA 12 DE OCTUBRE DEL 2020
SECTION I. Mean estimation (small samples) (2 pts).
Problem 1
According to the article “Fatigue Testing of Condoms”, “tests currently used for condoms
are surrogates for the challenges they face in use,” including a test for holes, and inflation
test, a package seal test, and tests of dimensions and lubricant quality. The investigators
developed a new test that adds cyclic strain to a level below breakage and determines the
number of cycles to break. A sample of 20 condoms of one particular type resulted in a
sample mean number of 1584 and a sample standard deviation of 607. Calculate and interpret
a confidence interval at the 99% confidence level for the true average number of cycles to
break.
𝑛 = 20 𝑥 = 1584 𝑠 = 607 𝑣 = 19
𝛼
1 − 𝛼 = 0.99 → 𝛼 = 0.01 → = 0,005
2
𝑡0.005,19 = 2.861
607 607
1584 − 2.861 < 𝜇 < 1584 + 2.861
√20 √20
1584 − 388.32 < 𝜇 < 1584 + 388.32
1195.68 < 𝜇 < 1972.32
𝟏𝟏𝟗𝟔 < 𝝁 < 𝟏𝟗𝟕𝟑

Problem 2
A sample of 14 joint specimens of a particular type gave a sample mean proportional limit
stress of 8.48 Mpa and a sample standard deviation of .79 MPa. Calculate and interpret a
95% lower confidence bound for the true average proportional limit stress of all such joints.
What, if any, assumptions did you make about the distribution of proportional limit stress?
𝑛 = 14 𝑥 = 8.48 𝑠 = 0.79 𝑣 = 13
𝛼
1 − 𝛼 = 0.95 → 𝛼 = 0.05 → = 0,025
2
0.79 0.79
𝑡0.025,13 = 2.1608.48 − 2.160 < 𝜇 < 8.48 + 2.160
√14 √14
8.48 − 0.456 < 𝜇 < 8.48 + 0.456
𝟖. 𝟎𝟐𝟒 < 𝝁 < 𝟖. 𝟗𝟑𝟔
Problem 3
The article “Measuring and Understanding the Aging of Kraft Insulating Paper in Power
Transformers” (IEEE Electrical Insul. Mag., 1996: 28–34) contained the following
observations on degree of polymerization for paper specimens for which viscosity times
concentration fell in a certain middle range:

418 421 421 422 447 431

434 437 439 446 427 453
454 463 465 425 448

Calculate a two-sided 95% confidence interval for true average degree of polymerization (as did the
authors of the article). Does the interval suggest that 440 is a plausible value for true average degree
of polymerization? What about 450?
a)
𝑛 = 17 𝑥 = 438.30 𝑠 = 14.7 𝑣 = 16
𝛼
1 − 𝛼 = 0.95 → 𝛼 = 0.05 → = 0,025
2
𝑡0.025,16 = 2.120
14.7 14.7
438.30 − 2.120 < 𝜇 < 438.30 + 2.120
√17 √17
438.30 − 7.55 < 𝜇 < 438.30 + 7.55
𝟒𝟑𝟎. 𝟕𝟓 < 𝝁 < 𝟒𝟒𝟓. 𝟖𝟓
b) Si, 440 es un valor plausible para el verdadero grado medio de polimerización, ya que se
encuentra dentro de los valores del intervalo.
c) No, 450 no es un valor plausible ya que este valor se excede de los valores que comprende
el intervalo.
SECTION II. Population proportion (1.5 pts).
Problem 4
A sample of 56 research cotton samples resulted in a sample average percentage elongation
of 8.17 and a sample standard deviation of 1.42 (“An Apparent Relation Between the Spiral
Angle f, the Percent Elongation E1, and the Dimensions of the Cotton Fiber,” Textile
Research J., 1978: 407–410). Calculate a 95% large-sample CI for the true average
percentage elongation m. What assumptions are you making about the distribution of
percentage elongation?

𝑛 = 56 𝑥 = 8.17 𝑠 = 1.42
𝛼
1 − 𝛼 = 0.95 𝛼 = 0.05 = 0.025
2
𝑍0.025 = 1.96
1.42
𝐿. 𝐼 = 8.17 − 1.96 ( ) = 7.798
√56
1.42
𝐿. 𝑆 = 8.17 + 1.96 ( ) = 8.541
√56
𝟕. 𝟕𝟗𝟖 < 𝝁 < 𝟖. 𝟓𝟒𝟏

Problem 5
A state legislator wishes to survey residents of her district to see what proportion of the
electorate is aware of her position on using state funds to pay for abortions.
a. What sample size is necessary if the 95% CI for p is to have a width of at most .10
irrespective of p?
b. If the legislator has strong reason to believe that at least 2/3 of the electorate know of her
position, how large a sample size would you recommend?
SOLUCION
a. we must get the required sample size necessary, if the 95% confidence interval for p, in
order to have a width of at most w=0.10 irrespective of p.
At 95% confidence level the z is:
𝛼 = 1 − 95% = 1 − 0.05 = 0.05
𝛼 0.05
= = 0.025
2 2
𝑍𝛼⁄2 = 𝑍0.025 = 1.96
 0.5
The largest confidence interval occurs when p = 0.5; the standard error is then ( 𝑛). Setting
√
up an equation.
So, the required sample size is:
0.5
1.96 ∗ ( ) = 0.05, 𝑤𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑒𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒. 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑤𝑒 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑣𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
√𝑛
The answer of the solve is:
𝑛 = 384.2, 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑤𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑒𝑑 385 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒

b. in that case, calculate the standard error using 2/3 instead of 1/2. So, we have:
(2⁄ )(1⁄3)
1.96 ∗ √ 3 = 0.05, 𝑎𝑔𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑤𝑒 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑣𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛.
𝑛
The answer of the solve is:
𝑛 = 341.48, 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑤𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑒𝑑 342 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒.

.
SECTION III. Popuation variance (1.5 pts).
Problem 6
The amount of lateral expansion (mils) was determined for a sample of n 5 9 pulsed-power
gas metal arc welds used in LNG ship containment tanks. The resulting sample standard
deviation was s 5 2.81 mils. Assuming normality, derive a 95% CI for 𝜎2 and for𝜎.
SOLUCION
𝑛 = 9 𝑠 = 2.81
𝛼 = 1 − 95% = 1 − 0.95 = 0.05
𝛼/2 = 0.05/2 = 0.025
𝑍_(𝛼 ⁄ 2) = 𝑍_0.025 = 1.96

𝑋 2 0.025,8 = 17,534
𝑋 2 0.975,8 = 2.180

(𝑛 − 1)𝑠 2 2
(𝑛 − 1)𝑠 2
< 𝜎 <
𝑋 2 0.025,8 𝑋 2 0.975,8

(8)(2.81)2 (8)(2.81)2
< 𝜎2 <
17,534 2.180

𝟑, 𝟔𝟎𝟐 < 𝝈𝟐 < 𝟐𝟖, 𝟗𝟕𝟔

√3,602 < 𝜎 < √28,976

𝟏, 𝟖𝟗𝟕 < 𝝈 < 𝟓, 𝟑𝟖𝟐

Problem 7
Wire electrical-discharge machining (WEDM) is a process used to manufacture conductive
hard metal components. It uses a continuously moving wire that serves as an electrode.
Coating on the wire electrode allows for cooling of the wire electrode core and provides an
improved cutting performance. The article “High- Performance Wire Electrodes for Wire
Electrical- Discharge Machining—A Review” (J. of Engr. Manuf., 2012: 1757–1773) gave
the following sample observations on total coating layer thickness (in mm) of eight wire
electrodes used for WEDM: 21, 16, 29, 35, 42, 24, 24, 25.
Calculate a 99% CI for the standard deviation of the coating layer thickness distribution. Is
this interval valid whatever the nature of the distribution? Explain.
SOLUCION
We need to make a Confidence Interval for the population standard deviation of the coating
layer tickness of wires.
The study variable is: X: Coating layer tickness of a wire electrode.
Sample:
21; 16; 29; 35; 42; 24; 24; 25
N=8
∑ 𝑥 216
𝑋̅ = = = 27
𝑛 8
The sample variance is:
∑(𝑥 − 𝑥̅ )2 (21 − 27)2 + (16 − 27)2 + … . . +(25 − 27)2
2
𝑆 = = = 67,428
𝑛−1 8−1
𝑆 = 8,21

The most appropriate statistic to study the population variance is the Chi-Square, if your
variable is normally distributed, you can use it to make the confidence interval.
So, with the given information I've ran a Shapiro- Wilks test to check the variable
distribution. With a p-value= 0.7148, I can say that the variable has normal distribution.
The interval is:
Data.
𝑛=8 𝑠 = 8.21
𝛼 = 1 − 99% = 1 − 0.99 = 0.01
𝛼/2 = 0.01/2 = 0.005

𝑋 2 0.005,7 = 20.276
𝑋 2 0.995,7 = 0.989

(𝑛 − 1)𝑠 2 2
(𝑛 − 1)𝑠 2
< 𝜎 <
𝑋 2 0.005,7 𝑋 2 0.995,7

(7)(8.21)2 2
(7)(8.21)2
<𝜎 <
20.276 0.989

23,27 < 𝜎 2 < 477,076

√23,27 < 𝜎 < √477,076

𝟒, 𝟖𝟐𝟑 < 𝝈 < 𝟐𝟏, 𝟖𝟒𝟐

No, Este intervalo no es válido al menos que el valor del espesor este distribuido
normalmente.