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Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis Testing
Additional Material
Slide 1
Chapter 8
Hypothesis Testing
◼ Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
◼ Type I and Type II Errors
◼ Population Mean: s Known
◼ Population Mean: s Unknown
◼ Population Proportion
◼ Hypothesis Testing and Decision Making
◼ Calculating the Probability of Type II Errors
◼ Determining the Sample Size for
a Hypothesis Test About a Population mean
Slide 2
Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
Slide 3
Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
Slide 4
Hypothesis Testing
Slide 5
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Slide 6
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Slide 7
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Slide 8
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Slide 9
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Slide 10
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Slide 11
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Slide 12
Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative
Hypotheses about a Population Mean
The equality part of the hypotheses always appears
in the null hypothesis.
◼ In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a
population mean m must take one of the following
three forms (where m0 is the hypothesized value of
the population mean).
H 0 : m m0 H 0 : m m0 H 0 : m = m0
H a : m m0 H a : m m0 H a : m m0
Slide 13
Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Slide 14
Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Slide 15
Type I Error
Slide 16
Type II Error
Slide 17
Type I and Type II Errors
Population Condition
H0 True H0 False
Conclusion (m < 12) (m > 12)
Accept H0 Correct
Type II Error
(Conclude m < 12) Decision
Reject H0 Correct
Type I Error
(Conclude m > 12) Decision
Slide 18
p-Value Approach to
One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
◼ The p-value is the probability, computed using the
test statistic, that measures the support (or lack of
support) provided by the sample for the null
hypothesis.
◼ If the p-value is less than or equal to the level of
significance , the value of the test statistic is in the
rejection region.
◼ Reject H0 if the p-value < .
Slide 19
Suggested Guidelines for Interpreting p-Values
Slide 20
Lower-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Known
p-Value Approach p-Value < ,
so reject H0.
= .10 Sampling
distribution
x − m0
of z =
s/ n
p-value
= 7
z
z = -z = 0
-1.46 -1.28
Slide 21
Upper-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Known
p-Value Approach p-Value < ,
so reject H0.
Sampling
distribution
= .04
of z = x − m 0
s/ n
p-Value
=
z
0 z = z=
1.75 2.29
Slide 22
Critical Value Approach to
One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
◼ The test statistic z has a standard normal probability
distribution.
◼ We can use the standard normal probability
distribution table to find the z-value with an area
of in the lower (or upper) tail of the distribution.
◼ The value of the test statistic that established the
boundary of the rejection region is called the
critical value for the test.
The rejection rule is:
• Lower tail: Reject H0 if z < -z
• Upper tail: Reject H0 if z > z
Slide 23
Lower-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Known
Critical Value Approach
Sampling
distribution
of z = x − m 0
Reject H0 s/ n
=
Do Not Reject H0
z
−z = −1.28 0
Slide 24
Upper-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Known
Critical Value Approach
Sampling
distribution
of z = x − m 0
s/ n Reject H0
=
Do Not Reject H0
z
0 z = 1.645
Slide 25
Steps of Hypothesis Testing
p-Value Approach
Step 4. Use the value of the test statistic to compute the
p-value.
Step 5. Reject H0 if p-value < .
Slide 26
Steps of Hypothesis Testing
Slide 27
Suggested Guidelines for Interpreting p-Values
Slide 28
Let’s Revisit
Slide 29
Let’s Revisit
Slide 30
One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
Example: Metro EMS
The response times for a random sample of 40
medical emergencies were tabulated. The sample
mean is 13.25 minutes. The population standard
deviation is believed to be 3.2 minutes.
The EMS director wants to perform a hypothesis
test, with a .05 level of significance, to determine
whether the service goal of 12 minutes or less is
being achieved.
Slide 31
One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
◼ p -Value and Critical Value Approaches
Slide 32
One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
◼ p –Value Approach
Slide 33
One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
p –Value Approach
Sampling
distribution = .05
x − m0
of z =
s/ n
p-value
=
z
0 z = z=
1.645 2.47
Slide 34
One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
◼ Critical Value Approach
Slide 35
p-Value Approach to
Two-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
◼ Compute the p-value using the following three steps:
1. Compute the value of the test statistic z.
2. If z is in the upper tail (z > 0), compute the
probability that z is greater than or equal to the
value of the test statistic. If z is in the lower tail
(z < 0), compute the probability that z is less than or
equal to the value of the test statistic.
3. Double the tail area obtained in step 2 to obtain
the p –value.
◼ The rejection rule:
Reject H0 if the p-value < .
Slide 36
Critical Value Approach to
Two-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
◼ The critical values will occur in both the lower and
upper tails of the standard normal curve.
◼ Use the standard normal probability distribution
table to find z/2 (the z-value with an area of /2 in
the upper tail of the distribution).
The rejection rule is:
Reject H0 if z < -z/2 or z > z/2.
Slide 37
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
Example: Glow Toothpaste
The production line for Glow toothpaste is
designed to fill tubes with a mean weight of 6 oz.
Periodically, a sample of 30 tubes will be selected in
order to check the filling process.
Quality assurance procedures call for the
continuation of the filling process if the sample
results are consistent with the assumption that the
mean filling weight for the population of toothpaste
tubes is 6 oz.; otherwise the process will be adjusted.
Slide 38
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
Example: Glow Toothpaste
Assume that a sample of 30 toothpaste tubes
provides a sample mean of 6.1 oz. The population
standard deviation is believed to be 0.2 oz.
Perform a hypothesis test, at the .03 level of
significance, to help determine whether the filling
process should continue operating or be stopped and
corrected.
Slide 39
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
◼ p –Value and Critical Value Approaches
Slide 40
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
◼ p –Value Approach
Slide 41
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
◼ p-Value Approach
1/2 1/2
p -value p -value
= .0031 = .0031
/2 = /2 =
.015 .015
z
z = -2.74 0 z = 2.74
-z/2 = -2.17 z/2 = 2.17
Slide 42
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
◼ Critical Value Approach
Slide 43
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
◼ Critical Value Approach
Sampling
distribution
x − m0
of z =
s/ n
z
-2.17 0 2.17
Slide 44
Confidence Interval Approach to
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean
◼ Select a simple random sample from the population
and use the value of the sample mean x to develop
the confidence interval for the population mean m.
(Confidence intervals are covered in Chapter 7.)
◼ If the confidence interval contains the hypothesized
value m0, do not reject H0. Otherwise, reject H0.
(Actually, H0 should be rejected if m0 happens to be
equal to one of the end points of the confidence
interval.)
Slide 45
Confidence Interval Approach to
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean
The 97% confidence interval for m is
s
x z / 2 = 6.1 2.17(.2 30) = 6.1 .07924
n
or 6.02076 to 6.17924
Because the hypothesized value for the
population mean, m0 = 6, is not in this interval,
the hypothesis-testing conclusion is that the
null hypothesis, H0: m = 6, can be rejected.
Slide 46
Let’s Revisit
Slide 47
Let’s Revisit
(a) Decreases.
(b) Remains the same.
(c) Increases.
(d) All of these.
Slide 48
Tests About a Population Mean:
s Unknown
Test Statistic
x − m0
t=
s/ n
Slide 49
Tests About a Population Mean:
s Unknown
Rejection Rule: p -Value Approach
Reject H0 if p –value <
Rejection Rule: Critical Value Approach
H0: m m Reject H0 if t < -t
Slide 50
p -Values and the t Distribution
Slide 51
Example: Highway Patrol
Slide 52
One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Unknown
◼ p –Value and Critical Value Approaches
Slide 53
One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Unknown
◼ p –Value Approach
Slide 54
One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Unknown
◼ Critical Value Approach
Slide 55
One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Unknown
Reject H0
Do Not Reject H0
=
t
0 t =
1.669
Slide 56
A Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative
Hypotheses About a Population Proportion
The equality part of the hypotheses always appears
in the null hypothesis.
◼ In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a
population proportion p must take one of the
following three forms (where p0 is the hypothesized
value of the population proportion).
Slide 57
Tests About a Population Proportion
Test Statistic
p − p0
z=
sp
where:
p0 (1 − p0 )
sp =
n
Slide 58
Hypothesis Testing and Decision Making
Slide 64
Calculating the Probability of a Type II Error
in Hypothesis Tests About a Population Mean
1. Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses.
2. Using the critical value approach, use the level of
significance to determine the critical value and
the rejection rule for the test.
3. Using the rejection rule, solve for the value of the
sample mean corresponding to the critical value of
the test statistic.
Slide 65
Calculating the Probability of a Type II Error
in Hypothesis Tests About a Population Mean
4. Use the results from step 3 to state the values of the
sample mean that lead to the acceptance of H0; this
defines the acceptance region.
5. Using the sampling distribution of x for a value of m
satisfying the alternative hypothesis, and the acceptance
region from step 4, compute the probability that the
sample mean will be in the acceptance region. (This is
the probability of making a Type II error at the chosen
level of m .)
Slide 66
Calculating the Probability
of a Type II Error
Example: Metro EMS (revisited)
Recall that the response times for a random sample
of 40 medical emergencies were tabulated. The sample
mean is 13.25 minutes. The population standard
deviation is believed to be 3.2 minutes.
The EMS director wants to perform a hypothesis test,
with a .05 level of significance, to determine whether or
not the service goal of 12 minutes or less is being
achieved.
Slide 67
Calculating the Probability
of a Type II Error
1. Hypotheses are: H0: m and Ha: m
2. Rejection rule is: Reject H0 if z > 1.645
3. Value of the sample mean that identifies
the rejection region:
x − 12
z= 1.645
3.2 / 40
3.2
x 12 + 1.645 = 12.8323
40
4. We will accept H0 when x < 12.8323
Slide 68
Calculating the Probability
of a Type II Error
5. Probabilities that the sample mean will be
in the acceptance region:
12.8323 − m
z=
Values of m 3.2 / 40 b 1-b
14.0 -2.31 .0104 .9896
13.6 -1.52 .0643 .9357
13.2 -0.73 .2327 .7673
12.8323 0.00 .5000 .5000
12.8 0.06 .5239 .4761
12.4 0.85 .8023 .1977
12.0001 1.645 .9500 .0500
Slide 69
Calculating the Probability
of a Type II Error
Calculating the Probability of a Type II Error
Observations about the preceding table:
⚫ When the true population mean m is close to
the null hypothesis value of 12, there is a high
probability that we will make a Type II error.
Example: m = 12.0001, b = .9500
⚫ When the true population mean m is far above
the null hypothesis value of 12, there is a low
probability that we will make a Type II error.
Example: m = 14.0, b = .0104
Slide 70
Power of the Test
Slide 71
Power Curve
1.00
Slide 72
Determining the Sample Size for a Hypothesis Test
About a Population Mean
The specified level of significance determines the
probability of making a Type I error.
◼ By controlling the sample size, the probability of
making a Type II error is controlled.
Slide 73
Determining the Sample Size for a Hypothesis Test
About a Population Mean
Sampling
distribution c
of x when H0: m m
Reject H0
H0 is true Ha: m m
and m = m0
x
m0
Sampling
distribution
of x when
Note: H0 is false
b and ma > m0
x
c ma Slide 74
Determining the Sample Size for a Hypothesis Test
About a Population Mean
( z + zb ) 2 s 2
n=
(m 0 − m a )2
where
z = z value providing an area of in the tail
zb = z value providing an area of b in the tail
s = population standard deviation
m0 = value of the population mean in H0
ma = value of the population mean used for the
Type II error
Note: In a two-tailed hypothesis test, use z /2 not z
Slide 75
Determining the Sample Size for a Hypothesis Test
About a Population Mean
Let’s assume that the director of medical
services makes the following statements about the
allowable probabilities for the Type I and Type II
errors:
•If the mean response time is m = 12 minutes, I am
willing to risk an = .05 probability of rejecting H0.
•If the mean response time is 0.75 minutes over the
specification (m = 12.75), I am willing to risk a b = .10
probability of not rejecting H0.
Slide 76
Determining the Sample Size for a Hypothesis Test
About a Population Mean
= .05, b = .10
z = 1.645, zb = 1.28
m0 = 12, ma = 12.75
s = 3.2
Slide 77
Relationship Among , b, and n
Slide 78
End of Chapter 8
Slide 79