123 India’s Foreign Policy in the 21st Century,

2020, ISBN No. 978-93-86608-23-9

ROHINGYA REFUGEE CRISIS: A DECIDING FACTOR IN THE FUTURE

OF INDO-MYANMAR RELATIONS

Sampurna Goswami*

Abstract

Forced migration often poses a deep impact on a country’s political, economic and
social spheres. In some cases it becomes a question of serious threat to security and
thereby affects the country’s foreign policy. India, not being an exception, has faced
serious refugee problem since its independence. Plight of refugees have come to
India from unstable neighbouring countries due to adverse political environment.
Rohingyas are one such ethnic Muslim minority of Myanmar who had fled their
country in fear of religious persecution. As the Islamic countries have shut the door
for these people, India gave them fellowship and as of 2016 records there are 36,000
Rohingya refugees in India who are concentrated in different parts of the nation.
India, not being a party to 1951 United Nations Refugee Convention and in the light
of growing India-Myanmar equation, the “Protection Certificate” issued by the
UNHCR in New Delhi has proved to be an inappropriate solution to the problem of
Rohingya Refugees. Howeve, a new debate is emerging where Rohingyas are being
recognized as a major threat to India’s security with an apprehension that they may
be prone to “Jihadist Radicalization” and may join the several insurgent groups in
the North eastern part of India to bring forth their grievances to the International
Community. The question is, how this Rohingya refugee problem in India will affect

*
Research Fellow, Department of International Relations, Jadavpur University,
Kolkata.
Rohingya Refugee Crisis: A Deciding Factor in the Future of…… 124

the Indo-Myanmar relations at the time when India considers Myanmar to be a

strategically important country in her “Act East” policy and at the time when both
these countries have decided to address the problem of insurgency along the border
through joint action.

Key Words: Rohingya refugees, security, Indo-Myanmar Relations, Act East Policy.

Introduction:

Forced migration refers to the movement of people from their country (country of
origin) to another country, in this kind of movement the people are termed as
refugees. If such movement occurs within the country of origin then the people are
termed as Internally Displaced People. People tend to leave their country at times
when they face threat to their life and property. Major causes of forced migration
includes natural disaster, environmental problems, persecutions including (social,
political and religious) and at times of war.

An office of United Nation High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) was

established on December 1950 and the Convention relating to the Status of Refugees
was concluded the following year. It is important to be aware that the treatment of
refugees is an intensely political issue; international refugee law has been shaped by
the perceived security implications of mass movements of people across borders.1
According to article 33(1) of the convention no contracting party shall expel or
return a refugee to the frontiers of territories where their life or freedom would be
threatened on account of their race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular
social group or political opinion, the contracting parties are also not allowed to
impose penalties on account of illegal entry or presence, on refugees who are
coming directly from a territory where their very existence was threatened.2

Migration: Is it a threat?

After analysing the basic meaning of the definition, it is now time to examine the
positive and negative effects of immigration. As I have already discussed about the
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International law and its clauses governing the rights to be enjoyed by the asylum
seekers, it is important to understand the impact, immigration may have on a
country. It is a well-known fact that immigration does not always mean influx of
refugees. Here I need to make a clear point that although immigration is a process of
movement of people from one country to another but refugee means that the people
who have moved into a country cannot be sent back to their country of origin as
these people have a threat to their lives. Thus, immigration does not mean a threat
but when it is a question of refugee crisis then it may have a threat factor induced in
it. Thus, it can be said that migration is a conscious choice but refuge is a choice
made out of compulsion.3

Therefore, when we look at the developed states of the west, we see a huge number
of migrants from different parts of the world working for better livelihood, in such
cases migration is not a threat rather migration provides cheap labour and capital for
the economic and social development of the country. Migration also includes
personal reason like family, education and medical purposes. But when we are
talking about refugee it includes a threat factor. In case of refugee people move in
search of security that includes food and shelter. Illegal immigration can also bring
in masses which may have connection with the Non State actors. If we look at
today’s global scenario then the huge amount of refugees from thee Middle Eastern
states especially Syria is moving into Europe and this is resulting in terrorist
activities where the terror elements are finding a secured way of infiltrating into the
territory in form of asylum seekers. In fact the huge illegal immigration is posing a
major threat to a countries social security as most refugees take up vicious activities
as a way of earning livelihood. Apart from this, the competition regarding
acquisition of local resources becomes another imperative factor. Thereby, refugee
crisis and the problems relating to it can be neither defined as an external threat nor a
domestic tension but rather becomes a political instrument in the hands of leaders.
For instance, the Copenhagen school of thought is of the view that migration is a
threat to society rather than the state, because it threatens the self-identity of the
Rohingya Refugee Crisis: A Deciding Factor in the Future of…… 126

population.4 However in case of refugee it is not only a cultural threat but rather an
overriding pressure on a country’s economic and social parameters.

Immigration: A Major Problem in India

When it comes to the question of India’s status regarding the refugee convention, the
answer is quite clear. India is not a signatory to the United Nations Convention
Relating to the Status of Refugees, 1951. The chief reason for not signing the
convention or the protocol was the fact that the borders of South Asia is extremely
porous and India is quite aware that the countries surrounding her is politically,
economically as well as socially weak and unstable. As a result, cross border mass
movement of people from these countries would strain India’s economic and
demographic structures5. However, it is important to note here that even though
India has not been a party to the convention, yet she had provided asylum to a large
population of immigrants not only from South Asia but also from African nations.

Cross border immigration as a problem have strained India’s political environment

since the very inception of India as a country. What is important is to understand that
major portion of India’s Land borders is porous. Another major factor is that the
British demarcated the borders in South Asia considering the political factors only,
while negating the factor of demographic similarities and ethnic ties. Therefore, the
borders in South Asia became vulnerable when it comes to cross border movements.
India have remained host to diverse groups of refugees varying from Buddhist
Chakmas from Bangladesh, Muslim Rohingyas from Myanmar, small groups from
Sudan and Somalia in Africa, Sri Lankan Tamils and also Tibetans. However, India
being a politically and economically stable country in the ‘South Asian Arc’, is
facing a continuous threat in regards to refugees, especially from its neighbouring
counties which in turn is resulting in grave economic pressure. The porosity of the
borders are resulting in immense illegal immigration that is resulting in strives, local
conflicts, communal problems etc. In such a backdrop, this paper, with a
combination of research methods, mostly based on secondary data sources and
127 India’s Foreign Policy in the 21st Century,
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coagulating certain information gathered during a field visit to the India-Myanmar

Border, shall delve deep into the problem of Rohingya influx into India and shall
tease out the issues and opportunities that will arise out of such crisis and thereby try
to analyse the future course of the India Myanmar diplomatic relations.

Rohingyas:

In Burmese language, Rui hang Ja, (Rohingyas,) are an ethnic group residing in the
Rakhine (Arakan) state of Myanmar. The people of Arakan were mostly Hindus and
Muslims who were referred to as Kula or dark skinned people. The Rohingyas were
denied of political identity during the British rule and were thus not allowed to
participate in any independent negotiations with British in 1948. After
independence, they were not invited to be signatories to the Union Treaty that was
signed by Aung San and other nationalities in the course of the formation of Union
of Burma, therefore they were not entitled to the basic political and economic rights.
Since then, the Muslim Rohingyas started separatist movements and took to arms to
establish their demands for rights.6 In 1950 after being recognized by U Nu and U
Ba Swe, the Rohingyas abandoned their weapons but they remained suppressed
under the military regime of General Ne Win. However, the Dragon operation in
1978 forced these Muslim Rohingyas to flee Myanmar and take shelter in
Bangladesh. When they returned back to Burma in 1981 they found themselves in
despair as the Burmese Citizenship Act of 1982 excluded them from 135 national
races.7 From 1989 onwards, the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC)
captured the lands of these people to set military camps without compensating them
and since then these people have remained homeless. According to the present
Burmese psychology, a Rohingya is a Muslim and thus a Bengali and therefore is
not a part of Myanmar, hence shall never be accepted.

In 2012 the Rakhine state of Myanmar witnessed a violent riot between the
Buddhists and the Rohingya Muslims, where the Muslims were targeted, the riots
finally took a violent form that led to the imposition of emergency in the Rakhine
Rohingya Refugee Crisis: A Deciding Factor in the Future of…… 128

state of Myanmar. The Anti-Muslim campaign throughout Myanmar forced these

people to identify themselves as Bengali heretics who were not a part of Burma. One
of the major reasons pivotal to such a row, was that, they were Muslims and the
Rakhine Buddhists considered Islam as a major threat to Buddhism in Myanmar. As
a result of these riots, around 140,000 Rohingyas fled with boats mainly to Malaysia,
Thailand and other South East Asian nations including India, creating a Rohingya
refugee crisis in the entire South Asian and South East Asian arc. In 2012, when
these Rohingyas, who were always designated as Bangladeshi Muslims and
alienated from Burma as foreigners, fled to Bangladesh for asylum. Bangladesh was
not ready to accept them as a result they were pushed further to India for seeking
asylum.8 With a change in the government of Myanmar in 2015 and with a tolerant
democratic leader like Aung San Syu Ki taking the chair, whether the problem of
Rohingyas in Rakhine will be solved, whether they will be recognized as an integral
part of Myanmar or will be considered as major threat to the security of the country
because of the fact that many Rohingyas have been serving in Taliban and Al Qaeda,
became a big question because the perception of the Buddhist majority Myanmar is
that the Rohingyas will only act as a Jihadist insurgent group. However the military
crackdown of 2016 and Aung San Syu Ki’s reply to the criticisms that followed was
most unprecedented. She absolutely denied that there was an ongoing human rights
violation and genocide in her country. The fact that Aung San Syu Ki is only the de-
facto Head of the State and that she needs considerable amount of popular support
for her future prospects, may or may not be a sufficient explanation behind her
ambivalent and ignorant attitude.

Rohingyas in India:

According to the UNHCR data bases there are 5,500 estimated Muslim Rohingya
refugees in India. Even though, India is not a signatory to the 1951 refugee
convention yet on the basic humanitarian grounds India have accepted these stateless
Rohingyas at the time when other Islamic countries had shut doors for them. In West
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Benga,l these refugees were prosecuted under Foreigner’s Act of 1946 and were
send to correctional homes.9 Since 2014 there have been a steady influx of Rohingya
refugees from Bangladesh through the borders of West Bengal. Considering the fact
that Bangladesh had closed the door for the world’s largest “persecuted minority”
declaring that Rohingyas were not Bangladeshis, the Rohingyas had no other option
but to enter India via the North East.10 However India’s status regarding the
Rohingyas have remained unclear, on one hand India is unable to deport them back
to Myanmar and on the other hand India is unwilling to accept them. Therefore
having no other option, Rohingyas have been subjected to endless condemnation and
arbitrary detention.11 At present there are about 36,000 Rohingyas in India spread
across different parts of India. However, the basic question and issue of debate
regarding these refugees remain, whether their presence will be an exodus of threat
for India or not out of the fear that they may be prone to Jihadists Radicalisation and
in this regard New Delhi’s stance regarding Rohingyas is firm. The Ministry of
Home affairs have been clear in its statement that India will accept them as long as
they have a valid visa and a refugee card, without which they can’t claim the basic
necessities from the government.12 On the other hand, National Intelligence Agency
(NIA’s) investigations and claims that few Rohingyas, as part of the Indian
Mujahidin were involved in the Buddha Gaya Blast of 2013 have raised the issue of
security that is now attached with the infiltration of Rohingyas into the territory of
India. 13

As, already discussed in details how migration in general and refugee problem in
particular affects the basic political and economic structure of a country, it is at this
point that a pertinent question arises as to how much or to what degree a country’s
foreign policy is affected. Whether Rohingyas’ presence in India will affect India
Myanmar relations? Or to what degree shall India’s Act East Policy and greater
participation with Myanmar act as a barrier for India to take up a comprehensive
solution for Rohingya problem?
Rohingya Refugee Crisis: A Deciding Factor in the Future of…… 130

India-Myanmar Relations: An Outline

Before searching for answers to these question, it is important to understand the

history of the India-Myanmar Relations. India’s thrust in drawing a friendly relation
with Myanmar began in 1991 when India adopted its Look East Policy. As Baladas
Ghosal points out, there were certain reasons behind India’s Myanmar Policy. First,
Myanmar’s geostrategic position, where Myanmar acted as a bridge between South
Asia and South East Asia. India’s Look East Policy essentially connected India’s
North East with Myanmar which not only had historical and cultural similarities but
would also help in connecting the two major regions of Asia. Secondly, India
wanted to secure its North Eastern Borders. It is a well-known fact that most of
India’s insurgent groups operating in North East was using Myanmar as a safe
territory to carry out anti insurgent movements. Thirdly, India’s desire to counter
China was another driver in India’s Myanmar Policy. As India was aware of the fact
that China already have its strategic presence in Myanmar which in itself was a
security threat for India. Thus, greater engagement with Myanmar was the option.
Fourthly, on Bangladesh’s refusal to provide transit for trade and communication to
the North East Region, India found no other way but to connect North East with
Myanmar to provide bases for economic development. This would also help India to
deal with the insurgency problem in North East.14

In the light of India’s Look East Policy, India enhanced its engagement with
Myanmar through regional and sub-regional groupings. From 1996 onward,s India
began to get membership in BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral
Technical and Economic Cooperation), Kunming Initiative (Bangladesh, China,
India and Myanmar) and the Mekong Ganga Cooperation (India, Thailand,
Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam) in 2004.15 India have also engaged with
Myanmar in various infrastructural projects like The Indo-Myanmar Friendship
Road completed in 2001 to open up trade routes. The Kaladan Multimodal Transport
Project that will link the North East through waterways16 was another watershed in
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the quest for developing an entente with Myanmar. Through the infrastructural
development both India and Myanmar have been able to develop the North Eastern
part of India as a potential market for trade and business, one such potential market
is the Moreh-Tamu border, Moreh in Manipur, India and Tamu in the Sagine
division of Myanmar. In 2010, Than Shwe and Manmohan Singh agreed to increase
security cooperation and collective effort to fight the insurgents and to combat
terrorism along the border.17

Why is India dodging away from the Rohingyas? Introspection through

Foreign Policy perspective;

By now it is clear that India is ignorant in giving a solid response to the problem of
Rohingya influx in India. Taking a rigid stance by declaring that the Rohingyas need
to provide a valid visa and Refugee card while claiming social securities from
Government of India, India have made it clear that even though India have allowed
them to enter its territory, although Bangladesh haven’t, but India is not ready to
accept them.

There are few reasons behind it, India’s Myanmar policy was adopted as a tool to
counter Chinese influence in the region, and in fact the Sino-Myanmar entente is a
major threat for India. China have not only provided developmental aids for
Myanmar but it has provided financial aids to the various insurgents groups who
carries out anti-Indian activities from the territories of Myanmar. It’s quite a well-
known fact that China-Pakistan-Myanmar tripartite friendship has often questioned
India’s territorial security. While China provided financial aid to these insurgents,
Pakistan provided them with training and technologies. China and Pakistan always
wanted to keep India domestically disturbed, thus insurgents were not only safe in
Myanmar’s territory but also got immense developmental aid and assistance from
China and Pakistan. If we examine the India-Myanmar border outposts especially
the Moreh-Tamu outpost and the Rhi-Zhowkhatar outpost, the most conspicuous
facet that comes to fore is the huge amount of illegal arms that are infiltrating
Rohingya Refugee Crisis: A Deciding Factor in the Future of…… 132

through the borders. The presence of Chinese goods in the Moreh-Tamu market
clearly indicates the Chinese influence along the borders. AK-47 riffles are being
sold in parts. On the other hand, in the Rhi-Zhowkhatar border the illegal infiltration
of M-Series riffles from Cambodia, but made in China, proves the indirect influence
of China and China’s ambition in flooding India’s markets with these cheap arms.
As a result, it is increasingly becoming easier for the anti-Indian elements to get hold
of arms at a cheaper rate.18

Taking this into account, India’s Myanmar policy essentially was aimed at curbing
these factors. India struck a deal of friendship with the military junta of Myanmar so
that both the countries can work together to address the insurgency issue. In the light
of this friendly relation that gradually evolved, in 2010 Naypidaw and New Delhi
agreed to work together with substantial effort to curb insurgency. Therefore at this
point accepting Rohingyas can have a negative impact on the Indo-Myanmar
relations. As ‘an army of well over million young men’ is being trained by the by the
Taliban and Al Qaeda at the Bangladesh-Myanmar border since 2014 and even
earlier can become an issue of conflict between the two nations, India and Myanmar.
Burmese population believes that the Rohingyas have connections with Islamic
Radicalisation and thus, securing a safe territory of operation like India, they can
take to arms and continue their movement for a separate state “Newrosia” that shall
be governed under Sharia Law19. This, as a result will destroy the very essence of
India’s Myanmar policy.

This will not only hamper India’s domestic security but allowing such terrorist
activities will, in turn ignite the fire of Anti-Indian movements in North Eastern part
of India and the insurgency issue will gain momentum. It is quite clear that the
Rohingya refugees in India shall become a matter of tension as it had been with the
Buddhist Chakmas from Bangladesh. Therefore, Gautam Sen argues that the
Government of India should advice with a degree of sensitivity and without overtly
interfering in Myanmar’s internal matters to ensure a more effective administration
133 India’s Foreign Policy in the 21st Century,
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in Myanmar’s Rakhine state and provide basic livelihood and conferring them
citizenship and voting rights.20

Conclusion:

Embracing Rohingyas might be adversarial on the part of India as, with Narendra
Modi coming to power in 2014, New Delhi have adopted its ‘Act East Policy’ a
renovation of the earlier Look East Policy which aims at building healthier relations
with the ASEAN countries in particular and the East Asian countries in general.
Considering Myanmar as a gateway to ASEAN as a region, India have tried to forge
a friendlier atmosphere in communicating with Myanmar, being aware of the fact
that Myanmar have close, perhaps closest ties with China in the region.

Being disturbed with the long history of insurgency in the North East, India had no
other option but to sign a deal with Myanmar to work collectively to curb such
problem and in return have faced cross border infiltrations, illegal arms trade, Drug
peddling through the 1,643 Km long porous border. Since 2014 Rohingya refugee
influx through the borders and considerable presence of Rohingyas in Manipur and
Mizoram have made India to rethink its policy programs. On one hand India cannot
accept them as they are considered to be foreigners by the Burmese nationals who
believe them to be representatives of Taliban-Al Qaeda, therefore accepting them
might apparently be viewed as, allowing them to use India’s territory to carry out
Anti-Myanmar activities which shall be against the deal signed by Than Shwe and
Manmohan Singh in 2010 and on the other hand India cannot force them to leave her
territory on basic humanitarian grounds.

There’s no doubt, about the fact that, at this point of time India can, in no way let
Myanmar go out of hand. However the Democratic force coming to power in 2015
with Aung San Suu Kyi becoming the State Counsellor have brought light of hope
amongst the Rohingyas. The leader of Myanmar have declared that the word
“Rohingya” shall not be used by her government and that the term is controversial.21
Rohingya Refugee Crisis: A Deciding Factor in the Future of…… 134

Whether the tolerant leader will actually accept the Rohingyas as an integral part of
Myanmar or not, will be a factor in Myanmar’s democratic policy but the same
personality being the foreign minister of Myanmar shall obviously shape the future
course of Indo-Myanmar relations and in this connection Rohingya refugee crisis
shall be an important driver as India have given shelter to this destitute population.

Notes and References

1
V. Scott, Shirley, International Law in World Politics; An Introduction, (Colorado: Lynne Rienner,
2010), p.220
2
ibid, 220
3
‘What is the difference Between a Refugee and a Migrant?’ Canadian Red Cross Society,
http://www.redcross.ca [retrieved on November 6, 2016]
4
Sheehan, Michael, International Security, ( New Delhi: India, Viva Books Private Limited, 2006)
p.92
5
Sarkar, Dipankar, Dey, ‘Why India Won’t Sign Refugee Treaty’
http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/bePZQScFIq1wEWv9Tqt4QO/Why-India-wont-sign-Refugee-
Treaty.html [retrieved on November 2,2016]
6
Akhtar, Shamima, and Kyoko Kusakabe, ‘Gender Based Violence among Documented Rohingya
Refugees’ Indian Journal of Gender studies, Volume 21, No.2, June, 2014. p.227
7
ibid, 228
8
Mahadevan, Prem, ‘The changing Politics and Geo politics of Burma’, Strategic Analysis, Volume
37, No.5, September to October 2013, p. 607
9
Mahanirban Calcutta Research Group ‘ Rohingyas in India: Birth of a Stateless Community’ http
://www.mcrg.ac.in/Rohingyas/Rohingyas_Concept.asp [ retrieved on November 5, 2016]
10
Bagchi, Subhojit, ‘Rohingya Influx- a Brewing crisis’, The Hindu, Kolkata, March 17, 2014.
11
Ali, Meher, ‘An Uncertain Refuge: The Fate of Rohingyas in India’ The Wire, November 15, 2015,
http://thewire.in/15624/an-uncertain-refuge-the-fate-of-the-rohingyas-in-india/, [retrieved on
November 5, 2016].
12
Rattanpal, Divyani, ‘Are Myanmar’s Rohingya Refugees a threat to India?’ The Quint, June 20,
2016 https://www.thequint.com/india/2015/06/15/myanmar-to-jammu-a-rohingyas-journey-to-a-
place-called-home, [retrieved on November 5, 2016]
13
Chatterjee, Gadadhar, ‘North East Insurgencies: An Introspection’, JAIR Journal of International
Relations, Volume 2, Issue 2, July to December, 2015, p. 74.
135 India’s Foreign Policy in the 21st Century,
2020, ISBN No. 978-93-86608-23-9

Ghoshal, Baladas, ‘India’s Engagement with Myanmar’, Journal of Indian Ocean Studies, Vol.22,
14

No.2, August 2014.pp 219-220

, Saikia, Hiranya ‘India-Myanmar Relations: from past to present Scenario’, Times of Assam,
15

August 26, 2014.

16
op.cit., Ghoshal, pp.221-222
17
Ghosh, Nilimpa, ‘The Rohingya Refugee Crisis and India’s Security: A Contemporary
Perspective’, JAIR Journal of International Relation, Volume 3, Issue 1, January-June, 2016, pp.39-
45
18
The information, given in this section, apart from those cited, is purely based on the author’s
personal experiences in a field trip organized by the Jadavpur Association of International Relations
(JAIR)-Maulalna Abul Kalam Azad Institute of Asian Studies (MAKAIAS) from (9 th January-13th
January, 2015), Moreh-Tamu and from (21st June-25th June, 2015), Rhi-Zowkhawtar.
19
, Maung, Han, ‘Islamic Rohingya Terrorist - The Al Qaeda-Taliban in Myanmar’, (March 26,2014)
https://pt.scribd.com/document/214714603/Islamic-Rohingya-Terrorists-The-Al-Qaeda-Taliban-in-
Myanmar [retrieved November 11, 2016]
20
Gautam, Sen, ‘The Persecuted Rohingyas of Myanmar: Need for political Accomodation and
India’s Role’, IDSA Comments, Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, August 13, 2012,
www.idsa.in, [retrieved November 11, 2016].
21
‘Aung San Suu Kyi tells UN that the term Rohingya will be avoided’, The Guardian, Myanmar,
June 21, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/21/aung-san-suu-kyi-tells-un-that-the-
term-rohingya-will-be-avoided [retrieved November 11, 2016]