NAME: _________________________________ I.D.

: _____________________________________
TEST ONE
PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS, ECON 15B
JUNE 29, 2018

1. How are a sampling distribution of the mean and a sampling distribution of a proportion similar?

2 – 3. (Two questions – Twenty points) Let’s say that the average time it takes a UCI student to drive to campus is 42 minutes with a
standard deviation of 24 minutes. If we take a sample of 36 people, what is the probability that the average drive time for people in the
sample is 40 or more minutes? [Assume that the sampling distribution is approximately normal.]

4. There is a group of people. The average height of these people is 67 inches. Is it more likely to pick an individual who is more than
68 inches tall or a sample of four people who average more than 68 inches tall? Or are they probabilities equal? Or is it impossible to
tell? You do not have to explain your answer.

5. When does the sample have to be very large in order to ensure that the sampling distribution of the mean is approximately normal?

6 – 7. (Two questions – Twenty points) Let’s say that the favorite number of 36% of the people in Irvine is “three.” “Seven” is the
favorite number of 25% of the people; “ten” is the favorite number of 16% of the people; “thirteen” is the favorite number of 9% of the
people; and “one-hundred” is the favorite number of 14% of the people. If we take a sample of 16 people who live in Irvine, what is the
probability that 75% or more of the sample have “three” as their favorite number? [Assume it is safe to assume normality, and assume it
is safe to assume a continuous distribution.]

8. Why isn’t a voluntary sample considered to be a probability sample?

9. Is it ever the case that E ( X́ ) ≠ μ. Please explain.

10. Polly is doing a cluster sample; she plans to select 100 people from each cluster. Cluster A has 10,000 people. Cluster B has 40,000
people. Cluster C has 20,000 people. What sort of problems will occur? What are the ramifications?

11. Rory is trying to figure out what percentage of people drive more than 2,000 miles on their summer vacation. He asks 120 people if
they drive more than 2,000 miles, twelve say yes. Calculate a 90% confidence interval for the true percentage of people who drive more
than 2,000 miles on their summer vacation.

12. Tegan is trying to estimate the average miles people hike per year. She has a sample of 16 people and gets a sample mean of 24.6
miles and a sample standard deviation of 15 miles. Please calculate the 95% confidence interval for the true mean.

13. Kristen is building a 99% confidence interval for the proportion of college graduates in a town. She wants it to be accurate to within
3%. How many people need to be in her sample?

14. Why is it a problem if the experimenter decides who is in the sample?

15. Let’s say that is has been established that a 95% confidence interval for the mean number of oranges eaten per week per person is
0.8 to 2.6. True or false: This means that 95% of all people eat between 0.8 and 2.6 oranges per week? No explanation necessary.

16. Let’s say that is has been established that a 95% confidence interval for the mean number of oranges eaten per week per person is
0.8 to 2.6. True or false: The mean number of oranges eaten for 95% of all samples will fall between 0.8 and 2.6. No explanation
necessary.

17. There are 100 students in a class. The professor asks the class how many hours each student studies. Of the 100 students, 27 raise
their hand and answer the question. What kind of sample do the 27 students represent? No explanation necessary.

18. If we are doing inferential statistics and our data is nominal in nature, what parameter are we most likely to be estimating?