NAME: _________________________________ I.D.

: _____________________________________
TEST TWO
PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS, ECON 15B
JULY 6, 2018

YOU MUST SHOW ALL YOUR WORK!

1. In 1968, Doob and Gross studied perceived social status. They found that if an old, beat-up (low-status) car failed to start when a
traffic light turned green, 84% of the time the driver in the car behind them honked the horn. However, when the stopped car was an
expensive, high-status car, only 50% of the time the driver behind them honked the horn. If Type I Error was made, what was concluded
and what was true. (Say something like, “They concluded that _____________, but in reality _____________.” Fill in the blanks with
statements about the experiment, not generic statements that can apply to any experiment.)

2. Continuing with the above experiment: If Type II Error was made, what was concluded and what was true. (Say something like,
“They concluded that ________________, but in reality, we have _________________.” Fill in the blanks with statements about the
experiment, not generic statements that can apply to any experiment.)

3. As evidence against the null hypothesis being true increases, what happens to the test statistic?

4. As evidence against the null hypothesis being true increases, what happens to the p-value?

5. In the case of Joe, the slow tapper, do you think it would be better to have a large significance level or a small significance level?
You need to explain why. Your points depend on your explanation.

6. When can you use a one-tailed test (according to lecture)?

7. True or false (no need to explain): The p-value is the probability of the null hypothesis being true.

8. True or false (no need to explain): You flip a coin 100 times and get 50 heads. Is it possible that the coin is an unfair coin?
9 – 11. (Three questions – Thirty points). In the United States, 80% of all people have a smartphone. Zoe thinks that a higher
percentage of UCI students have smartphones. She takes a sample of 64 students, and 60 of them have a smartphone. Do a z-test to see if
this difference is real. You need to calculate the z-statistic, state the critical value, come to a conclusion concerning the null hypothesis,
and state what this means with regards to UCI students and smartphones. Make it a two-tailed test and make α = .01.

12. Using the data from question 9-11, symbolically state what the null hypothesis is.

13. Continuing with the above: In your answer to the above question, there should be a letter/symbol indicating a parameter. State
precisely what this is a parameter of.

14 – 16. (Three questions – Thirty points). The average IQ of people in the United States is 100 with a standard deviation of 16. It is
also approximately normal in shape. Leela thinks that UCI students are smarter than average. She gets a sample of nine people. They
have an average IQ of 110. Help Leela do a z-test. Calculate the z-statistic, state the critical value, come to a conclusion about the null
hypothesis, and state clearly what Leela can conclude about the IQ of UCI students.

17. Is finding an innocent person guilty Type I Error or Type II Error? No need to explain. Make it a two-tailed test and make α = .05.

18. Martha is doing a two-tailed z-test with α = .05. Her z-statistic is 0.8. What is the p-value?