POPULATION DYNAMICS

I. Is the branch of life sciences that studies the size and age composition of populations as dynamical systems,
and the biological and environmental processes driving them such as birth and death rates, and by
immigration and emigration.

World population reached: Year Time to add 1 billion

• 1 billion • 1804 •
• 2 billion • 1927 • 123 years
• 3 billion • 1960 • 33 years
• 4 billion • 1974 • 14 years
• 5 billion • 1987 • 13 years
• 6 billion • 1999 • 12 years
Through the early decades of the Industrial Revolution, life expectancies were low in Western Europe and the United
States. Thousands of people died from infectious diseases such as typhoid and cholera, which spread rapidly in the
crowded, filthy conditions that were common in early factory towns and major cities, or were weakened by poor
nutrition. But from about 1850 through 1950, a cascade of health and safety advances radically improved living
conditions in industrialized nations.
RECENT WORLD POPULATION

THE MALTHUSIAN THEORY OF POPULATION

Is a theory of exponential population growth and arithmetic food supply growth. Thomas Robert Malthus, an English
cleric, and scholar, published this theory in his 1798 writings, An Essay on the Principle of Population.
He believed that through preventative checks and positive checks, the population would be controlled to balance the
food supply with the population level. These checks would lead to the Malthusian catastrophe.
Malthusian Theory of Population Explained
1. Population Growth
Thomas Malthus theorized that populations grew in geometric progression. A geometric progression is a sequence of
numbers where each term after the first is found by multiplying the previous one by a fixed, non-zero number called
the common ratio. For example, in the sequence 2, 10, 50, 250, 1250, the common ratio is 5.
2. Food supply
Additionally, he stated that food production increases in arithmetic progression. An arithmetic progression is a
sequence of numbers such that the difference between the consecutive terms is constant. For example, in series 2, 5,
8, 11, 14, 17, the common difference of 3.
From this, we can conclude that populations will grow faster than the supply of food. This exponential population
growth will lead to a shortage of food.
If every member of a family tree reproduces, the tree will continue to grow with each generation.
On the other hand, food production increases arithmetically, so it only increases at given points in time. Malthus wrote
that, left unchecked, populations can outgrow their resources.

2. Population Control

Malthus then argued that because there will be a higher population

than the availability of food, many people will die from the shortage
of food. He theorized that this correction would take place in the form
of Positive Checks (or Natural Checks) and Preventative Checks.

These checks would lead to the Malthusian catastrophe, which would

bring the population level back to a ‘sustainable level.’

A. Positive Checks or Natural Checks

He believed that natural forces would correct the imbalance between food supply and population growth in the form
of natural disasters such as floods and earthquakes and human-made actions such as wars, diseases and famines.
B. Preventative Checks
To correct the imbalance, Malthus also suggested using preventative measures to control the growth of the population.
These measures include family planning, late marriages, and celibacy.
FACTORS AFFECTING POPULATION CHANGE

CRUDE BIRTH RATE

Is the total number of live births per 1,000 in a population in a year or period not taking into account the age-specific
group or cohort.
In 2016, crude birth rates ranged from 8 per 1,000 in countries such as Japan, Italy, Republic of Korea, and Portugal to
48 in Niger.

In 2017, a total of 1,700,618 live births was registered which is equivalent to a crude birth rate (CBR) of 16.2 or 16
births per thousand population.
The number of registered live births showed a decreasing trend, noticeably from 2012 to 2017. The decrease in the last
five years was 5.0 percent, from 1,790,367 live births in 2012 to 1,700,618 recorded births in 2017.
FACTORS AFFECTING FERTILITY RATE
I. Total Fertility rate
Total fertility rate (TFR) in simple terms refers to total number of children born or likely to be born to a woman in her
life time if she were subject to the prevailing rate of age-specific fertility in the population.
II. REPLACEMENT RATE
Replacement level fertility is the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from generation to
generation.
In developed countries, replacement level fertility can be taken as an average of 2.1 per woman. Since replacement
cannot occur if a child does not grow to maturity and have their own offspring, the need for the extra 0.1 child (a 5
percent buffer) per woman is due to the potential for death and factors in those who choose or are unable to have
children. In less developed countries, the replacement rate is around 2.3 because of higher childhood and adult death
rates.
III. INFANT MORTALITY RATE
In some countries where the infant mortality rate high, families would tend to have more children to compensate for
the expected deaths.

IV. SOCIAL FACTORS

 LEVEL OF HEALTHCARE
Improvements in health care, sanitation & diet lead to a drop in infant mortality rate e.g. The Demographic Republic of
Congo has a total fertility rate of 6.91 and 0.088 doctors per 1000 people.
Availability of contraceptives for couples with knowledge and desire to use it e.g. Rwanda, where 10% of women
practice modern methods of family planning and where the total fertility rate is 5.12. In Brazil, 70% of women practice
modern methods of family planning and the total fertility rate is 2.21.
• LEVEL OF EDUCATION
In some countries, access to healthcare and education may be limited e.g. Afghanistan, total fertility rate of 7.7 with
0.17 doctors per 1000 & a female literacy rate of 13%.
Higher female literacy rates lead to improved knowledge of birth control, more opportunities for employment and
more choice. This may lead to lower fertility rates.
V. CULTURAL FACTORS
 RELIGION
Islam and the Roman Catholic Church oppose the use of birth control although this influence may lessen with economic
development. In many parts of the world religion/tradition demands high rates of reproduction.

 THE STATUS OF WOMEN

Women in some countries are obliged to produce as many children as possible e.g. Nigeria, total fertility rate 4.9.
 • MACHISMO
In some countries, the number of children is seen as a sign of virility and wealth.
VI. ECONOMIC FACTORS
 EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES
With the prospect of a career, women may have less children and marry later. e.g. the average marital age in the UK is
30. Reduced access to formal employment and other income earning opportunities means women are forced to devote
most of their time and energy to child bearing.
• THE COST OF HAVING CHILDREN
Children are seen as economic assets in LEDCs. They can be used as workers on land or to bring in more income. The
time spent in education and the cost of childcare makes it more expensive to have a child. In the UK (TFR 1.66) the
estimated cost of raising a child to 21 is £166,000.
• CELIBACY SYNDROME
The loss of sexual desires towards opposite sex. A catastrophic condition in which japan is experiencing that causes a
massive decline of their population.
VII. POLITICAL FACTOR
Some governments will try to influence the rate of population growth e.g. The Chinese attempting to reduce the birth
rate or Japan attempting to increase it.

CRUDE DEATH RATE

The crude death rate measures the rate of deaths for every 1,000 people in a given population. Crude death rates of
below 10 are considered low, while crude death rates above 20 per 1,000 are considered high.
Crude death rates in 2016 ranged from 2 in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain to 15 per 1,000 in Latvia,
Ukraine, and Bulgaria. 

Reported deaths in 2017 reached 579,237, a decrease of 0.5 percent than the previous year’s 582,183 deaths. This is
equivalent to a crude death rate (CDR) of 5.5, or about six (6) persons per thousand population.
The number of deaths from 2008 to 2016 showed an increasing trend but slightly declined in 2017. The increase during
the ten-year period is about a quarter, or 25.5 percent, from 461,581 in 2008 to 579,237 in 2017.
FACTORS AFFECTING MORTALITY RATE
I. LIFE EXPECTANCY/AGE PROFILE
The term “life expectancy” refers to the number of years a person can expect to live. By definition, life expectancy is
based on an estimate of the average age that members of a particular population group will be when they die.
II. INFANT MORTALITY RATE 
The number of deaths of children under the age of 1 per 1000 live births per year.
 III. DEMOGRAPHICS
• AGE DISTRIBUTION
The higher the proportion of old people to young people, the higher the death rate since older people are more likely
to die.
• GENDER
Women generally have a higher life expectancy than men, possibly due to the lifestyle or biological differences
preventing certain diseases.
IV. ECONOMIC FACTORS

• OCCUPATION
In some countries people may be employed in dangerous occupations increasing the death rate e.g. Timber cutters in
America with 105 deaths in 2000.
• INCOME
Low income levels correlate to a low life expectancy whilst high income levels correlate with a high life expectancy. This
is because a high income allows people to afford medical care, higher standards of living and healthier foods,
prolonging their life.
• EDUCATION
Areas with high literacy levels have higher life expectancies whereas areas with low literacy rates have low life
expectancies. The reasoning behind this is that when people can read & write, they can obtain higher paying jobs and
therefore receive a higher income improving their life expectancy.
In addition, when people can read they can read information on preventing the spread of disease and basic hygiene
standards improving life expectancy.
V. HEALTH FACTOR

• ACCESS TO FOOD
Countries with a lack of food have low life expectancies since the people suffer from malnutrition and are more
susceptible to diseases due to a weakened immune system increasing the mortality rates.
• MEDICAL FACILITIES
Access to vaccination programs helps to prolong life expectancy and prevent the spread of diseases. Equipment such as
mosquito nets also help prolong life expectancy. Access to medical clinics and doctors will also help to substantially
lower the death rate. 
HEALTH RELATED ISSUES (HIV/AIDS, CANCER, PNEUMONIA)
VI. POLITICAL FACTOR
• TERRORISM
Generally would cause a massive number of deaths and distraction. War and conflict would also affects agricultural
land and properties which would lead to poverty.
VII. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR
• WATER SANITATION
• FOOD SUPPLY
• NATURAL CALAMITIES

MIGRATION
• IMMIGRATION - The immigration rate is the number of individuals who move into a population from a different
area per unit time.
• EMIGRATION - The emigration rates describe the numbers of individuals who migrate out of the population per
unit time.
THE PROBLEM OF OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulation is an undesirable condition where the number of existing human population exceeds the carrying
capacity of Earth.

China and India recently released the findings of their latest censuses, giving the world a glimpse of how these two
population behemoths are realigning in numbers and rates of growth. According to the projections by the Population
Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, in 2025. India, with 1.46 billion people, will
have overtaken China, with 1.39 billion, as the world’s most populous nation. China’s population will then, based on
the medium variant, decline to about 1.3 billion by 2050. India will continue to grow to about 1.7 billion by 2060 before
beginning to decline.

CAUSES OF OVERPOPULATION
I. DECLINE IN THE DEATH RATE: IMPROVED MEDICAL FACILITIES
The invention of vaccines and discovery of antibiotics such as penicillin saved thousands of lives and were a key factor
in unfettered population growth. As the number of annual deaths fell, while births remained constant, so the
population increased.
II. PROGRESS IN FOOD PRODUCTION
Scientific research and technological improvements saw more efficient agricultural production, resulting in year-round
crops, more resistant seeds, and pesticides. Improvements In fishing and livestock methods also contributed to the
provision of more food with which to nourish the population.
III. SOCIAL AGENCIES AND GOVERNMENT’S FUNDING AND ASSISTANCE.
MORE CHILD= MORE MONEY
For thousands of years, a very small part of the population had enough money to live in comfort. The rest faced
poverty and would give birth to large families to make up for the high infant mortality rate. So the government and
other social agency have to give assistance, financially to support the society’s main issue. But the hidden counterpart
is that, lots of families are procreating because of the assistance itself.
IV. TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT IN FERTILITY TREATMENT
Today there are effective medicines which can increases the chance of conception and lead to rise in birth rate.
Moreover, due to modern techniques pregnancies today are far safer.
V. LACK OF FAMILY PLANNING
Most developing nations have large number of people who are illiterate, live below the poverty line and have little or
no knowledge about family planning. Getting their children married at an early age increase the chances of producing
more kids. Those people are unable to understand the harmful effects of overpopulation and lack of quality education
prompts them to avoid family planning measures.
VI. IMMIGRATION
Many people prefer to move to developed countries like US, UK, Canada and Saudi Arabia where best facilities are
available in terms of medical, education, security and employment. The end result is that those people settle over there
and those places become overcrowded.
POSITIVE EFFECTS OF OVERPOPULATION
• DEFENSE
Large Population makes it possible to mobilize enough people to defend the integrity of the country in times of war and
any other emergencies.
• INCREASE IN LABOR MARKET
Increasing population ensures increase in the labor force. Lack of growth in the labor force will make a country static,
retarded and gets to equilibrium at less than full employment level of the economy.
• LARGE MARKET
Investors would like to invest in a country with a large population. As the population continues to grow so will be the
growth in demand for food, shelter, clothing etc.
NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF OVERPOPULATION
• DEPLETION OF NATURAL RESOURCES
Pressure on resources like food and water would increase. Food and fresh water supplies would be inadequate which
would result in malnutrition and lowered resistance to diseases.
• ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS
Growth in the population would take its toll on the land, increasing the demand for area which would lead to
deforestation or loss of natural habitat. Industrialization and urbanization would increase the global pollutions levels
too, causing imbalances in the atmosphere and global warming.
• UNEMPLOYMENT AND POVERTY
Large populations strain the economy and wouldn’t be able to support themselves due to the scarcity of jobs. A
majority of the population would be subjected to poverty and high cost of living due to the sheer pressure on the
economy.
• CONFLICTS AND WARS
Individuals fighting over resources and space end up killing each other on a massive scale due to the introduction of
nuclear and chemical warfare which has a negative effect on the overall population of an area or region.
• HEALTH AND SANITATION
Haphazard land use and poor infrastructure would lower the quality of health conditions and overall sanitation or
hygiene. Inadequate or inaccessible medical facilities would have a negative impact on demographic characteristics.
• IMBALANCE IN TRADE
Growing numbers and limited food would lead to an increase in imports which would send economies spiraling into
debt.
THE PROBLEM OF UNDERPOPULATION
Under population is a situation whereby the size of the population is small in relation to available resources of the
country. It is situation where the size of the population is below the equilibrium.

Under populated: Australia

Australia is an underpopulated country. Australia is the

world’s smallest continent and the sixth largest country with
the lowest population density in the world, only 2 people per
a km². It has a population of 23.13 million and a land area of
7.692 million km² .Only 10% of that land is inhabited. 90% of
the population live in the 10 largest cities in Australia all
located on the coast.

CAUSES OF UNDER POPULATION

• AN INCREASE IN DEATH RATE
Natural Catastrophes such as earthquakes, flood etc. will lead to an increase in death rate therefore the country
witnesses a reduction. And also the emergence of new diseases like HIV/AIDS which has decreased the population
globally.
• A FALL IN BIRTH RATE
The fertility rate in many developed and developing countries has dropped to about two children per women due to
factors like literacy, economic development or urbanization (increasing the cost or standard of living) making the idea
of having big families impractical.
• EMIGRATION
A persistent increase in emigration over immigration will leads to a reduction in a country population.
EFFECTS OF UNDER POPULATION

POSITIVE EFFECTS NEGATIVE EFFECTS

• LESS ENVIRONMENTAL AND HEALTH PROBLEMS • UNSTABLE ECONOMY

• EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES • POPULATION AGEING
• EQUALITY • LABOUR SHORTAGE
• AVAILABILITY OF RESOURCES • BLUNT FUTURE
• LESS WAR AND CONFLICT • LIMITED ACCESS TO EDUCATION
• SCARCITY OF MEDICAL FACILITIES
CRITICISMS OF THE MALTHUSIAN THEORY OF POPULATION
1. Population Growth
The gloom and doom forecasts put forward by Malthus have not played out. In Western Europe, populations have
grown (not at the rate Malthus predicted) and food production has also risen because of technological advancements.
2. Food Production
Thanks to many technological advancements, food production has dramatically increased over the past century. Often,
the food production rate has grown higher than the population growth rate. For example, during the 1930s in the US,
25% of the population worked in the agricultural sector while the total GDP was less than $100 billion to the GDP.
Today, less than 2% of the population works in the agricultural sector, while the total GDP is over $14 trillion.
3. Global Trade
The limited availability of land at the time was the basis for Malthus’ theory on food production constraints. However,
thanks to globalization, we can trade well and services for food, which increases the amount of food a country can
consume.
4. Calculations
Malthus did not provide calculations for the geometric growth of populations and the arithmetic growth of food. Since
then, experts have pointed out that the growth rates are not consistent with Malthus’ predictions.
MALTHUS’S ERROR

Malthus' predictions never came true. He would be surprised that almost 200 years later the world's population is
much larger and, for the most part, better off. There have been famines, but they have had more to do with local
conditions and politics than with the inability of Earth's resources to support the population. Malthus did not foresee
that pesticides, machines, refrigeration, and other technical advances would make it possible to feed enormous
numbers of people very well. Except in cases influenced by war and political repression, starvation is rarely a
widespread problem these days; in advanced nations, obesity is a far greater threat to health than starvation. Life
expectancy in the developed countries has nearly doubled, from 40 years in the 18th century to well over 70 years
now.
John S. Morton, Jane S. Shaw
and Richard L. Stroup