Pedosphere 21(6): 738–749, 2011

ISSN 1002-0160/CN 32-1315/P

c 2011 Soil Science Society of China
Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science Press

Application of the SCS-CN Model to Runoff Estimation in

a Small Watershed with High Spatial Heterogeneity∗1

XIAO Bo1,2,∗2 , WANG Qing-Hai1 , FAN Jun2 , HAN Feng-Peng2 and DAI Quan-Hou3
1
Beijing Research & Development Center for Grass and Environment, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences,
Beijing 100097 (China)
2
State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yangling 712100 (China)
3
College of Forest, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025 (China)
(Received April 19, 2011; revised September 19, 2011)

ABSTRACT
For reasons of simplicity, the most commonly used hydrological models are based on the Soil Conservation Service
Curve Number (SCS-CN) model, which is probably a good choice for the estimation of runoff on the Loess Plateau of
China; however, the high spatial heterogeneity, mainly caused by a fragmented landform and variations in soil type, may
limit its applicability to this region. Therefore, applicability of the SCS-CN model to a small watershed, Liudaogou on the
plateau, was evaluated and the most appropriate initial abstraction ratio (Ia /S) value in the model was quantified by the
inverse method. The results showed that the standard SCS-CN model was applicable to the estimation of runoff in the
Liudaogou watershed and the model performance was acceptable according to the values of relative error and Nash-Sutcliffe
efficiency. The most appropriate Ia /S value for the watershed was 0.22 because with this modified Ia /S value, the model
performance was slightly improved. The model performance was not sensitive to the modification of the Ia /S value when
one heavy rainfall event (50.1 mm) was not considered, which implied that the model, using a standard Ia /S value, can be
recommended for the Liudaogou watershed because single rainfall events exceeding 50 mm seldom occurred in that region.
The runoff amount predicted for the Liudaogou watershed by the SCS-CN model, using the modified Ia /S value, increased
gradually with increasing rainfall when rainfall values were lower than 50 mm, whereas the predicted amount increased
rapidly when the rainfall exceeded 50 mm. These findings may be helpful in solving the problem of serious soil and water
loss on the Loess Plateau of China.
Key Words: curve number, initial abstraction ratio, model performance, rainfall, soil and water loss

Citation: Xiao, B., Wang, Q. H., Fan, J., Han, F. P. and Dai, Q. H. 2011. Application of the SCS-CN model to runoff
estimation in a small watershed with high spatial heterogeneity. Pedosphere. 21(6): 738–749.

INTRODUCTION reaches of the Yellow River (Milliman et al., 1987; Saito

The Loess Plateau of China is well known in the
world for its rapid rate of soil erosion (15 000–20 000
t km−2 year−1 ), which is mainly due to the variable
weather (drought followed by concentrated rainfalls),
sparse vegetation, loose soils, a complex landform, and
the long-term improper use of land (Cha and Tang,
2000; Shi and Shao, 2000). The large amount of deli-
vered sediment seriously damages the middle and lower
et al., 2001). An estimation of surface runoff is essen-
tial for reducing sediments and consequent hazards be-
cause runoff is the driving force behind soil erosion.
Although many hydrologic models are available for the
estimation of runoff, most physically based models are
limited because of their large number of input para-
meters and complicated calibration requirements (Wu
et al., 1993; Kothyari and Jain, 1997). On the Loess
Plateau of China, the acquisition of these parameters

∗1
Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41001156), the Beijing Novel Program, China
(No. 2009B25), the Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation, China (No. 8102015), and the Open Fund of the State
Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau of China (No. 10501-295).
∗2
Corresponding author. E-mail: xiaoboxb@gmail.com.
SCS-CN MODEL AND RUNOFF ESTIMATION
at different scales (from single slopes to catchments)
and model calibration are difficult because of the
scarcity of related research. Additionally, the tradi-
tional hydrological models used for most small water-
sheds on the Loess Plateau can not represent the dis-
tributed nature of watershed-scale hydrological prop-
erties like soil type, slope, and land use (Hellweger and
Maidment, 1999). In this situation, the Soil Conser-
vation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) model devel-
oped by the USDA-Soil Conservation Service in 1972
(USDA SCS, 1985) is probably a good choice for the
estimation of runoff.
The SCS-CN model is a simple, empirical model
with clearly stated assumptions and few data require-
ments. Therefore, it has been widely used for wa-
ter resource management, storm water modeling and
runoff estimation for single rainfall events in small
agricultural or urban watersheds (Greene and Cruise,
1995; Tsihrintzis and Hamid, 1997; Lewis et al.,
2000; Chandrmohan and Durbude, 2001; He, 2003;
Liu et al., 2005; Mishra et al., 2006; Liu and Li,
2008; Sahu et al., 2010a). The model has also been
adopted by many hydrological and ecological mo-
dels to determine runoff, including CREAMS (Knisel,
1980), ANSWERS (Beasley et al., 1980), AGNPS
(Young et al., 1989), EPIC (Sharpley and Williams,
1990), SWAT (Arnold et al., 1995), and QUALHYMO
(http://www.waterbalance.ca/). Recently, the SCS-
CN model was extended to estimate sediment yield
and to model soil moisture (Reshmidevi et al., 2008;
Singh et al., 2008). Some researchers also integrated
the SCS-CN model into the GIS/RS system to extend
the model applicability to complex watersheds with
high temporal and spatial variability in soil and land
use (Zhan and Huang, 2004; Geetha et al., 2007). Al-
though the model is versatile and has been widely used
in the world, many researchers question its applica-
bility. Johnson (1998) pointed out that the SCS-CN
model has been overused and applied to situations and
conditions for which it was not designed. Indeed, the
SCS-CN model was developed using small-sized test
plots and was originally designed for use in midsize ru-
ral watersheds. Therefore, its extension to large basins
requires validation and calibration. Ponce (1989) con-
cluded that this model should not be used for catch-
ments larger than 250 km2 without catchment subdi-
vision. Apart from scale problems, the initial abstrac-
tion ratio (the ratio of initial abstraction to maximum
potential retention, Ia /S) in the SCS-CN model is of-
ten set equal to 0.20, according to experimental data
obtained in North America, but this value has been
739
frequently questioned for its validity and applicability
to other regions (e.g., Ponce and Hawkins, 1996; Shi
et al., 2009). For example, some researchers indicated
that the CN value should be verified before using this
model to estimate runoff in China, where the rainfalls
are concentrated and intensive, much different from
those in America (Wang, 2005; Zhou et al., 2008).
The SCS-CN model was introduced in China in the
1990s and has been applied by many researchers, espe-
cially on the Loess Plateau (Pan, 1996; He, 2003; Liu
et al., 2005; Huang et al., 2007; Liu and Li, 2008; Zhou
et al., 2008; Shi et al., 2009). The results of these stu-
dies indicate that it is a valuable tool for the prediction
of runoff from small watersheds on the Loess Plateau,
but its applicability should be locally validated and
calibrated (Liu et al., 2005; Huang et al., 2007; Liu
and Li, 2008). Additionally, the high spatial hetero-
geneity of soil properties across the Loess Plateau, in-
cluding texture and depth (Wang et al., 2001; Li and
Shao, 2006), bulk density (Lian et al., 2006; Xiao et
al., 2009), moisture content (Qiu et al., 2001; Fu et al.,
2003; Zhu and Shao, 2008), saturated hydraulic con-
ductivity (Stolte et al., 2003; Liu and Shao, 2009), and
infiltrability (Jiang et al., 2005), limits the applicability
of the model to this region. High spatial heterogeneity
makes runoff estimation become much more complex
and difficult. The main objectives of this research were:
1) to evaluate the applicability of SCS-CN model to a
small watershed on the Loess Plateau of China with
high spatial heterogeneity; 2) to accurately quantify
the Ia /S value in order to increase the precision of es-
timation; and 3) to evaluate the relationship between
rainfall and runoff resulting from the modified SCS-CN
model.
THEORY OF THE SCS-CN MODEL
The theory underlying the SCS-CN model is that
runoff can be related to soil-cover complexes and rain-
fall through a curve number. The model assumes that
the ratio of actual soil retention after runoff begins to
potential maximum retention is equal to the ratio of
direct runoff to available rainfall. This relationship, af-
ter algebraic manipulation and inclusion of simplifying
assumptions, results in the following equation (USDA
SCS, 1985):
Q/(P − Ia ) = F/S (1)
where Q = runoff (mm), P = storm rainfall (mm), Ia
= initial abstraction, F = cumulative infiltration, and
S = potential maximum retention or infiltration (mm).
Traditionally, the value of Ia is often set equal to 0.2S
740
in Eq. 1. Therefore, the SCS-CN model can be ex-
pressed as follows:
 1 094.0–1 273.9 m altitude) belongs to the loess hilly-
(P − 0.2S)2 /(P + 0.8S) P ≥ 0.2S
Q= (2)
0 P < 0.2S
For convenience and standardization application of
Eq. 2, S is expressed in the form of a dimensionless
runoff curve number (CN) which represents the runoff
potential of the land cover-soil complex characteris-
tics governed by soil antecedent moisture condition
(AMC), soil type, and land use and treatment (USDA
SCS, 1985):
S = 25400/CN − 254 (3)
Three AMCs were defined as dry (lower limit of
moisture or upper limit of S), moderate (normal or
average soil moisture condition), and wet (upper limit
of moisture or lower limit of S), and denoted as AMC I,
AMC II, and AMC III, respectively (Mishra and Singh,
2003). The CN value of AMC II (CNII ) was provided
by the SCS-CN manual and the CN value of AMC I
(CNI ) and CN value of AMC III (CNIII ) can be calcu-
lated by applying the following equations (USDA SCS,
1985):
CNI = 4.2CNII /(10 − 0.058CNII ) (4)
CNIII = 23CNII /(10 + 0.13CNII ) (5)
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Study area
A representative watershed, Liudaogou, with an
Fig. 1 Digital elevation model (DEM) data and slope gradients of the Liudaogou watershed.
B. XIAO et al.
area of 7.03 km2 was selected. The watershed (38◦
46 –38◦ 51 N latitude, 110◦ 21 –110◦ 23 E longitude,
gully region of the Loess Plateau, located in Shenmu
County of Shaanxi Province in northern China. The
Liudaogou watershed is located at approximately the
center of the wind-water erosion crisscross region on
the Loess Plateau, which suffers the most serious water
erosion in summer and the most serious wind erosion
in winter (Cha and Tang, 2000). This region experi-
ences intense soil erosion and is the main source for
coarse sediment to the Yellow River (Cha and Tang,
2000). The mean annual precipitation is 409 mm, with
a minimum of 110 mm and a maximum of 891 mm, and
rainfall from June to September can account for 80% of
the annual total (Cha and Tang, 2000). According to
the water deficit index by Wang and Takahashi (1999)
and the relative dryness index, the region can be classi-
fied as semiarid (Kimura et al., 2006). Drought followed
by concentrated rainfalls, sparse vegetation, loose soils,
a complex landform, and long-term improper use of
land (overgrazing, excessive deforestation, and culti-
vation on steep sloping land) since the 17th century
together have resulted in serious soil erosion and wa-
ter shortage consequent to water loss from runoff (Cha
and Tang, 2000).
The long-term serious soil loss has developed deep
(up to 20 m) and dense (3–7 km km−2 ) gully networks
and has led to a fragmented landform digital eleva-
tion model (DEM) and slope gradients (Fig. 1). Most
importantly, the soils in the watershed are erosion-
vulnerable loess with areas of coarse sand (soil type
map in Fig. 2). There are three types of soils in the
SCS-CN MODEL AND RUNOFF ESTIMATION 741

Fig. 2 Soil types and land use in the Liudaogou watershed.

TABLE I

Hydrologic and related properties of the soils in the Liudaogou watershed

Property Aeolian sandy Chestnut Loessial Rock, river,
soil soil soil or reservoir
Texture Sandy soil Loamy sand soil Sandy loam soil –
Saturated water content (mL L−1 ) 213.5±5.5 261.4±12.9 317.8±16.5 –
Water content at field capacity (mL L−1 ) 125.5±4.4 150.3±7.1 231.7±12.6 –
Water content at wilting point (mL L−1 ) 8.4 14.7 25.9 –
Saturated hydraulic conductivitya) (cm h−1 ) 71.34±7.19 19.40±2.10 10.52±0.25 –
Bulk density (g cm−3 ) 1.71±0.01 1.63±0.13 1.54±0.02 –
Soil hydraulic groupb) A A A D
Area (km2 ) 0.88 1.10 4.61 0.44
Area percentage (%) 12.5 15.6 65.6 6.3
a)
Measured by a tension infiltrometer.
b)
Soil hydraulic groups are mainly determined by infiltration rate: A > 7.26 mm h−1 , 3.81 mm h−1 < B < 7.26 mm h−1 ,
1.27 mm h−1 < C < 3.81 mm h−1 , and D < 1.27 mm h−1 .

Liudaogou watershed, aeolian sandy soil, chestnut soil,
and loessial soil (Fig. 2). The hydrologic and related
properties of these three soils are presented in Table I.
The fragmented landform and variations in soil type
result in high spatial heterogeneity in soil texture and
depth, bulk density, moisture, saturated hydraulic con-
ductivity, infiltrability, nutrients, and land use (Fig. 2)
(Jiang et al., 2005; Zhu and Shao, 2008; Liu and Shao,
2009; Wang et al., 2009).
Data sources and processing
The standard 1:10 000 topographic map (contour
line interval of 5 m) of the Liudaogou watershed,
which was created in 1985, was obtained from the
Shaanxi Bureau of Surveying and Mapping. The soil
and land use map came from the Institute of Soil
and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences
(Liu, 1993). The topographic, soil, and land use maps
were digitized in the ArcGIS Desktop 9.3 and veri-
fied/corrected by field investigation using a Trimble
5700 GPS system (Trimble Navigation Limited, USA)
in 2004. The verified topographic map was then im-
ported into ArcGIS, and the DEM map was generated
from a contour line by the ArcGIS extension 3D Ana-
lyst for creating a TIN model from features and then
converted TIN to rasters. The slope map was com-
pleted from surface analysis of the DEM using the 3D
Analyst tools. The DEM and slope maps of the wa-
tershed are presented in Fig. 1. The corrected soil map
and land use map were reclassified according to the
742
manual of the SCS-CN model (USDA SCS, 1985), and
the results are displayed in Fig. 2.
The ArcCN-Runoff tool, an extension of the Ar-
cGIS software for generating curve number and runoff
maps (Zhan and Huang, 2004), was added to the Ar-
cGIS desktop software and activated. Then the soil
map and land use map were imported, and a new
land-soil file was generated. Finally, the CN value was
obtained, and the runoff depth was calculated in the
ArcCN-Runoff tool. The total runoff volume of the Li-
udaogou watershed after any rainfall event was com-
puted by multiplying the runoff depth by the area. The
detailed, stepwise operation of the runoff calculation
by the ArcCN-Runoff tool in ArcGIS can be found in
Zhan and Huang (2004).
During the period of 2004–2005, natural rainfall
was measured by an auto-recording rain gauge, and
the actual runoff at the outlet of the watershed was
monitored by means of a V-shaped weir.
Model validation and runoff predication
The measured runoff was compared with the value
calculated by the SCS-CN model. Subsequently, the
applicability of the model to the Liudaogou watershed
was evaluated by testing the relative error (RE) and
Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) (Nash and Sutcliffe,
1970), both of which have been widely used in evalua-
tion of model performance (Moriasi et al., 2007).
RE = (Qcal obs obs
i − Qi )/Qi × 100% (6)
n
 
n soil in this region can be up to 100 m and the infiltra-
NSE = 1 − (Qobs
i − Qcal
i )
2
(Qcal obs 2
i − Qmean ) (7)
i=1 i=1
where Qobs
i is the ith observation of runoff, Qcali is the
obs
ith calculated runoff by the SCS-CN model, Qmean is
the mean value of observed runoff, and n is the total
number of observations. NSE ranges between −∞ and
1, with NSE = 1 being the optimal value. Values of
NSE between 0 and 1 are generally viewed as accept-
able levels of performance, whereas a value of NSE
< 0 indicates that the mean observed value is a bet-
ter predictor than the simulated value, which indicates
unacceptable performance (Moriasi et al., 2007).
According to the results, the value of Ia /S, which
was traditionally set equal to 0.2 in Eq. 2, was modified
until the model yielded the best performance as evalu-
ated by relative error and NSE in Eqs. 6 and 7. Finally,
this value of the initial abstraction ratio was assumed
for the runoff estimation.
B. XIAO et al.
RESULTS
Determination of CN values
The runoff generation mainly relied on the CN va-
lues, which are a function of AMC, slope, soil type, and
land use. The CN values reflected the runoff potential.
Low CN values mean that the surface has a high poten-
tial to retain water, whereas high values indicate that
the rainfall could only be stored to a limited extent.
From Table I, we can see that the soil types changed
from aeolian sandy soil to loessial soil, but the soils all
belonged to the same soil hydraulic group, A (infiltra-
tion rate > 7.26 mm h−1 ), according to the SCS-CN
manual. This indicates that the SCS-CN model is a re-
latively coarse model in which the soil type is not clas-
sified in detail. The bare rock land and river/lake land
in the Liudaogou watershed were attributed to the soil
hydraulic group D (infiltration rate < 1.27 mm h−1 ).
The land use in the watershed was sorted into 14
types; these land use types and their corresponding CN
values from the ArcCN-Runoff tool are listed in Ta-
ble II. There were three types of land use, rangeland
(42%), cropland (31%), and brushland (26%) (Table
II). In the SCS-CN model, the CN value was influenced
by the AMC, which was derived from rainfall measure-
ments from the preceding five days. The CN value for
AMC II conditions can be converted into CN values for
AMC I and AMC III conditions by using Eqs. 4 and 5.
However, in this study, only the CN value for AMC
II was used in the estimation of runoff; the depth of
tion rate can be up to 71.34 cm h−1 . Thus, both the
AMC I and AMC III conditions did not appear. Fi-
nally, the CN value for the Liudaogou watershed was
obtained, and runoff depth was calculated using the
ArcCN-Runoff tool (Fig. 3).
SCS-CN model verification
During the period of 2004–2005, approximately 10
natural rainfall events were recorded. The rainfall for
each event was between 5.3 and 50.1 mm, and the rain-
fall intensity was between 2.5 and 24.4 mm h−1 . The
runoff measured and that estimated by the SCS-CN
model are presented in Table III. The relative error in
Table III showed that the runoff was generally (8 out
of 10) overestimated, being on the average 20% higher
than the actual runoff.
The NSE value calculated by Eq. 7 was 0.90 and
the relative error ranged from 2.0% to 77.7%, with an
SCS-CN MODEL AND RUNOFF ESTIMATION 743

TABLE II

Land use and curve number (CN) in the Liudaogou watershed

Land use Hydraulic Area Area CNb)

conditiona) percen-
tage A (AMC II) D (AMC II) A (AMC I) D (AMC I)
km2 %
Row cropland (contoured, terraced) Good 0.34 4.84 62 81 41 64
Small grain land (contoured, terraced) Good 0.36 5.10 59 81 38 64
Close-seeded cropland (contoured) Good 1.48 21.00 55 83 34 67
Rangeland (herbaceous) Poor 2.03 28.94 30 93 15 85
Rangeland (herbaceous) Fair 0.39 5.59 30 89 15 77
Rangeland (herbaceous) Good 0.42 6.02 30 85 15 70
Rangeland (sagebrush) Fair 0.07 1.00 30 70 15 49
Brushland Poor 0.07 0.96 48 83 28 67
Brushland Fair 1.50 21.36 35 77 18 58
Deciduous forest 0.25 3.52 36 79 19 61
Orchard land 0.01 0.17 45 83 26 67
Residential land 0.00 0.07 61 86 40 72
Open space land Good 0.03 0.48 39 80 21 63
Bare rock land 0.07 0.99 100 100 100 100
a)
According to the manual of the SCS-CN model, the hydraulic condition is based on a combination of factors that affect
infiltration and runoff, including density and canopy of vegetative areas, amount of year-round cover, amount of grass or
close-seeded legumes, percentage of residue cover on the land surface, and degree of surface roughness. The good hydraulic
condition means that these factors encourage average and better than average infiltration and tend to decrease runoff; the
poor hydraulic condition means that these factors impair infiltration and tend to increase runoff; and the fair hydraulic
condition is in-between the former two.
b)
A and D are the soil hydraulic group and AMC is the soil antecedent moisture condition, dry (I) and moderate (II),
according to the manual of the SCS-CN model.

Fig. 3 Curve number (CN) values and the corresponding runoff in the case of 100 mm precipitation in the Liudaogou
watershed.

average of 27.0% (Table III), indicating that the perfor- Modification of Ia /S value in the SCS-CN model
mance of the standard SCS-CN model was acceptable
according to the explanation of NSE by Moriasi et al. Because the history and documentation are ob-
(2007). scure, the assumption that Ia = 0.2S has been freque-
744 B. XIAO et al.

TABLE III

Comparison of measured runoff and runoff estimated by the SCS-CN model in the Liudaogou watershed
Date Rainfall Rainfall intensity Measured Estimated Relative error
runoff runoff
Maximum Average
−1
mm mm h m3 %
Aug. 2, 2004 5.3 24.4 4.0 326.5 370.5 13.5
Aug. 10, 2004 7.3 4.6 1.5 369.2 511.2 38.5
Aug. 11, 2004 10.2 18.3 6.8 1 105.9 707.6 −36.0
Aug. 14, 2004 14.1 6.1 1.3 567.5 982.1 73.0
Aug. 15, 2004 15.2 4.6 1.3 625.0 1 055.9 68.9
Sep. 29, 2004 6.9 2.5 1.6 468.6 477.8 2.0
May 29, 2005 7.1 2.5 1.8 279.1 495.9 77.7
Jul. 19, 2005 50.1 10.7 1.3 4 139.2 5 296.4 28.0
Aug. 23, 2005 16.0 11.2 3.2 1 276.2 1 114.4 −12.7
Sep. 15, 2005 9.9 2.8 0.8 590.8 688.8 16.6

ntly questioned for its validity and applicability, in- of Ia /S for moderate rains. Because the watershed is
voking a critical examination of the Ia -S relationship located at the center of the Loess Plateau, where the
for pragmatic applications. Mishra et al. (2006) em- annual precipitation is 409 mm and a single rainfall
ployed a large dataset from 84 small watersheds (0.17– event exceeding 50 mm is very rare, we can thus in-
71.99 ha in area) in the USA to investigate a number of fer that the modification of the value of Ia /S will not
Ia -S relationships that incorporated antecedent mois- significantly increase the performance of the SCS-CN
ture as a function of antecedent precipitation. Jain et model. Therefore, the default value (0.20) of Ia /S was
al. (2006) reviewed the Ia -S relationship and proposed
a new non-linear relationship that incorporated storm
rainfall and S. Ponce and Hawkins (1996) suggested
that the fixed initial abstraction ratio 0.20 may not be
the most appropriate number and that it should be in-
terpreted as a regional parameter.
In our case (Fig. 4a), we found that the relative
error rapidly decreased with increasing Ia /S when it
was less than 0.15, while it was almost stable when
the Ia /S value was between 0.15 and 0.30. However,
the NSE value of the model increased initially with in-
creasing Ia /S and then decreased gradually when the
Ia /S value exceeded 0.20 (Fig. 4b). Thus, we can con-
clude that the SCS-CN model achieved the best pre-
cision (RE = 25.1%, NSE = 0.95) in the estimation
of runoff when Ia /S was 0.22, but the value 0.20 was
also acceptable (RE = 27.0%, NSE = 0.90). However,
it should be noted that the variation in model perfor-
mance presented in Fig. 4 was mainly affected by the
special rainfall event on July 19, 2005 of 50.1 mm rain-
fall. If this rainfall event was removed from the model
evaluation, the relative error and NSE of the SCS-CN
model were maintained at 26.8% and 0.50, respectively,
Fig. 4 Relationships between the initial abstraction ratio
with the Ia /S values from 0.10 to 0.30 (Fig. 5). This (Ia /S) and the performance of the SCS-CN model in the
means that the performance of the SCS-CN model in Liudaogou watershed, evaluated by the relative error (RE)
the Liudaogou watershed was not sensitive to the value (a) and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) (b).
SCS-CN MODEL AND RUNOFF ESTIMATION 745

that produced the highest precision was 0.22. There-

fore, the SCS-CN model with this modified Ia /S value
was used to predict the runoff and the results are pre-
sented in Fig. 7. The runoff predicted increased gradu-
ally with increasing rainfall when the rainfall was less

Fig. 5 Relationships between the initial abstraction ratio

(Ia /S) and the performance of the SCS-CN model in the
Liudaogou watershed, evaluated by the relative error (RE)
(a) and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) (b) when the
heavy rainfall of July 19, 2005 (50.1 mm) was removed from
the evaluation.

applicable. However, 0.22 was recommended under Fig. 6 Relationships between curve number (CN) values
most conditions. and estimated runoff in the case of 50 mm rainfall and an
initial abstraction ratio of 0.20 by the SCS-CN model (a)
Sensitivity analysis of the SCS-CN model and the relationships between initial abstraction ratio
(Ia /S) values and estimated runoff in the case of 50 mm
From the description of the theory of the SCS-CN rainfall and a CN value of 80 (b) in the Liudaogou water-
model, it can be appreciated that the model only re- shed.
quires two input factors, CN and Ia /S. We evaluated
the model sensitivity to these two factors, and the re-
sults are displayed in Fig. 6. At Ia /S = 0.20, the es-
timated runoff was zero when the CN values were less
than 50 and then rapidly increased with increasing CN
values (Fig. 6a). Conversely, the estimated runoff de-
creased almost linearly with Ia /S increasing from 0
to 0.50 (CN = 80) (Fig. 6b). These comparative data
confirmed that the SCS-CN model was much more sen-
sitive to changes in CN values and less sensitive to
Ia /S values, as was already pointed out by Ponce and
Hawkins (1996) and Wang and Huang (2008a).

Runoff predication in the Liudaogou watershed

Fig. 7 Relationships between rainfall and runoff predicted
The results of the SCS-CN model application to by the SCS-CN model with a modified Ia /S value (0.22)
the Liudaogou watershed indicated that the Ia /S value in the Liudaogou watershed.
746
than 50 mm, while it increased rapidly when the
rainfall exceeded 50 mm. This indicated that a large
amount of runoff causing serious soil erosion can be
expected when a single rainfall event exceeded 50 mm.
DISCUSSION
The SCS-CN model is a lumped model used to
simulate rainfall-runoff; i.e., there is an input value
of rainfall and an output value of runoff. The model
does not take into account the time, slope gradient,
spatial and temporal variation of infiltration, or the
cumulative processes of runoff during the calculation.
Additionally, the division of soils into hydraulic groups
is very coarse and the definition of antecedent moisture
condition is not quantitative. These disadvantages of
the SCS-CN model exclude its application for some
process-based purposes, but guarantee the model sim-
plicity and stability in the estimation of runoff (Ponce
and Hawkins, 1996). In this study, considerable vari-
ations in the soil types in the Liudaogou watershed
were neglected although the differences in infiltrabili-
ty among soil types can be remarkable (Table I). Ad-
ditionally, the fragmented landform of the watershed
was not taken into account during the calculation pro-
cedure. Although spatial heterogeneity was not consi-
dered, the relative error and NSE values for the runoff
estimation, 27% and 0.90, respectively, confirmed the
applicability of the model to this watershed.
The most appropriate value for Ia /S was 0.22 for
this particular watershed. However, if the single heavy
rainfall event recorded was removed from the evalua-
tion, the model performance did not appear to be sen-
sitive to the Ia /S value. Similar results were obtained
in other studies. The SCS-CN model, using standard
Ia /S and CN values, performed well with a predic-
tion precision in excess of 75% and relative error be-
tween 6.7% and 23.3% when applied to the Wang-
donggou watershed in Changwu County of Shaanxi
Province (Liu et al., 2005), the Wangjiagou water-
shed in Lishi County of Shanxi Province (Zhang et al.,
2008), and the Wenyuhe watershed in Beijing (Zhou
et al., 2008). Additionally, Wang (2005) pointed out
that the most appropriate Ia /S value is 0.204 for the
Mengjiagou watershed in Shenmu County of Shaanxi
Province. Wang and Huang (2008a) concluded that
the optimized Ia /S value was 0.24 for the Feijiamao
watershed in Suide County and the Yangdaogou wa-
tershed in Lishi County, both of which are in Shanxi
Province. They concluded that the modification of
B. XIAO et al.
the Ia /S value only increased the model performance
to a limited extent. However, some studies also re-
ported that modifying the Ia /S value significantly im-
proved the performance of the model. Wang and Huang
(2008b) documented that the optimized Ia /S value
should be 0.01 for the Xingdiangou watershed in Suide
County of Shaanxi Province, and Shi et al. (2009)
noted that the Ia /S value should be 0.053 in the Three
Gorges area of China because this modification im-
proved the model NSE to 0.768, compared to 0.482 for
the traditional Ia /S value. He et al. (2001) reported
that the best Ia /S value is 0.05 when the model is
applied to the suburbs of Shanghai. From these refe-
rences, we can see that the standard value for Ia /S
(0.20) and the lower (down to 0.01) and higher values
(up to 0.24) of Ia /S have all been recommended for use
in China and even in the Loess Plateau. At present, it
is difficult to determine a universal Ia /S value for re-
gional or national scales in China. Therefore, the stan-
dard Ia /S value is recommended whenever no specific
research has been conducted.
Some researchers tried to establish new CN va-
lues for each land use type in China because they
believed that the CN values from the United States
could not be exported to other countries. Zhang et
al. (2003) established a new approach to get CN va-
lues from a particular rainfall event and for the rainfall
over the previous five days using a statistical method
in the Anjiagou watershed of Gansu Province. They
claimed that they obtained better performance of the
SCS-CN model with these new CN values. Wang and
Huang (2008b) optimized the CN value for millet (Pan-
icum miliaceum L.), alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.), and
sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (Linn.) Moench) using the
inverse method (using measured runoff to calculate CN
values). Similar work has also been conducted in other
watersheds (Jin et al., 2003; Zhang et al., 2004; Gao
et al., 2006), but it seems that the results are not con-
sistent. The results of these studies indicate that the
standard CN value in the SCS-CN model is an overes-
timate for some land use types and an underestimate
for the others.
Some researchers tried to add further parameters to
the SCS-CN model to reflect the effects of some factors
(e.g., slope gradient, rainfall intensity, and soil mois-
ture conditions) in order to increase its precision in
specific areas. For example, Wang and Huang (2008a)
modified the SCS-CN model with an additional rainfall
intensity factor for the Loess Plateau, and the model
performance evaluated by NSE was significantly incre-
SCS-CN MODEL AND RUNOFF ESTIMATION
ased from 0.351 to 0.812. In addition, Sahu et al.
(2010b) recently incorporated a continuous function for
antecedent soil moisture to avoid unreasonable sudden
jumps in curve number, which resulted in correspon-
ding jumps in the estimated runoff. These attempts
may increase the model performance but also result in
a simultaneous loss in the model simplicity and stabi-
lity.
CONCLUSIONS
The applicability of the SCS-CN model to a small
watershed on the Loess Plateau of China with high
spatial heterogeneity was evaluated in this study. The
most appropriate Ia /S value was quantified by the in-
verse method. The standard model was applicable to
the estimation of runoff in the Liudaogou watershed
and the model performance was acceptable according
to relative error (2.0%–77.7%, averaging 27.0%) and
NSE (0.90) values. The most appropriate Ia /S value
for the Liudaogou watershed was equal to 0.22 because
with this modified Ia /S value, the model performance
increased slightly, as evaluated by the relative error
(averaging 25.1%) and NSE (0.95) values. The model
performance was not sensitive to the Ia /S value when
a heavy rainfall (50.1 mm) event was omitted from the
dataset, which implied that the SCS-CN model with
a standard Ia /S value could be recommended for use
in the watershed studied because single rainfall events
exceeding 50 mm were very scarce in this region. The
runoff in the Liudaogou watershed predicted by the
SCS-CN model with the modified Ia /S value increased
gradually with increasing rainfall when the rainfall was
less than 50 mm and increased rapidly when the rain-
fall exceeded 50 mm. These findings may be helpful in
solving the problem of serious soil and water loss on
the Loess Plateau of China.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors are grateful to Dr. Wen Bin, Institute
of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources, Chi-
nese Academy of Sciences, for providing runoff data of
the Liudaogou watershed.
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