Geophysical Research Abstracts

Vol. 17, EGU2015-1069, 2015

EGU General Assembly 2015
© Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.

The development of an ICT-based multi-hazard Early Warning System –

experiences from a case study in Kenya
Elisabeth Vogel (1,2) and Zinta Zommers (2)
(1) School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia (evogel@student.unimelb.edu.au), (2) Division
of Early Warning and Assessment, United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya (zinta.zommers@unep.org,
elisabeth.vogel@unep.org)

The Fifth IPCC Assessment Report on climate change shows that the frequency and/or intensity of different types
of weather extreme events is likely to increase in a number of regions across the globe. Additional pressures
on socio-economic and environmental systems due to population growth, rapid urbanization, conflicts and
environmental degradation, particularly in developing countries, are likely to further increase the vulnerability of
populations and to exacerbate the risks of severe impacts from climate hazards. Early Warning Systems (EWS)
form an important part of national disaster risk management (DRM) strategies and are important to protect
communities against the immediate threat and consequences of climate-related extreme events.

However, although great efforts have been made to improve EWS worldwide, many of the existing systems
have important shortcomings: Often, EWS focus on one hazard type only, ignoring interactions between
concurrent hazards. Many fail to provide estimates of climate impacts in a standardized way and taking into
account all sectors that are vital to the functioning of societies and relationships between sectors. Furthermore,
the communication of warnings is not always adequate, either by not reaching affected populations or by not
providing timely and reliable warning. Finally, in many cases early warnings are not sufficiently linked to rapid
response measures.

This presentation will present the findings of the United Nations Environment Programme’s CLIM-WARN
project. The project aims to develop a multi-hazard and multi-sector Early Warning platform in Kenya using
innovative information and communication technologies (ICT). Project activities included the assessment of user
needs, the compilation of geographically disaggregated exposure and vulnerability indicators and the development
of simple impact models based on hazard/exposure and vulnerability data. Furthermore, a web-based tool that
integrates hazard data from different data sources, automatically calculates hazard impacts and disseminates
subscription-based warnings and response recommendations to users, based on their data needs and communica-
tion channels, is currently prepared and will be presented in this talk.

The combination of multiple forecasting datasets in one platform has several benefits: It ensures an com-
prehensive assessment of impacts in all major sectors, taking into account relationships between hazards and
sectors; it facilitates the creation of integrated response plans and the exchange of data and knowledge between
different stakeholders. Furthermore, it enhances the visibility of risk and hazard data and by this, helps to raise
awareness. Remaining gaps and challenges are related to data availability and accuracy as well as to the creation
of a national, legislative and institutional framework with clear roles and responsibilities. The development of an
Early Warning platform requires strong partnerships with and the support of regional, national and subnational
governmental and non-governmental institutions to ensure that the platform will be used by disaster managers in
the long term.