Protecting Manitobans:

December Update
 COVID’s impact in Manitoba

1,094
17,107 Total Hospitalized
Total Hospitalized

Total Positive Cases
204
Total ICU Stays

357,707 333
Total Tested
Total Deaths
3
Information up to November 30, 2020
How COVID-19 Affects Us

48 Cases 3 Hospitalizations 1 Death

4
Information up to November 30, 2020
An unsustainable curve

Weekly COVID Cases Overall Provincial Positivity Rate

5
Information up to November 30, 2020
 COVID trending too high in all regions
Positivity Rates by Regional Health Authority
Interlake‐Eastern Northern Prairie Mountain Health

Southern Health‐Santé Sud Winnipeg

6
Information up to November 30, 2020
A tragic impact on Manitobans of every age
COVID Related Manitoba Deaths by Age
Deaths by age group

0‐9
1 50‐59 15
10‐19
0 60‐69 34
20‐29
0 70‐79 69
30‐39
3 80‐89 122
40‐49
8 90+
81
Information includes deaths up to November 30, 2020 7
A significant spike in deaths last month
COVID Related Manitoba Deaths by Month
0‐9
10‐19
20‐29
30‐39
40‐49
50‐59
60‐69
70‐79
80‐89
90+
Information includes deaths up to November 30, 2020
Cases Broken Down by Age Group
Cases by age group

0‐5 456 30‐39

2,703 70‐79 906
5‐9 591 40‐49
2,362 80‐89 693
10‐19 1,924 50‐59
2,296 90+ 433
20‐29
3,240 60‐69
1,503

9
Information up to November 30, 2020
New COVID Cases in Children (Age 0-19)
Total cases 
by age group
10‐19 1,924
5‐9 591
0‐4 459

10
Epi week information includes cases up to and including the week of Nov. 24-30
 No evidence of significant
in-school transmission

6
Schools with Evidence of In‐School Transmission

802
Total public and 
independent schools
11
Information includes data up to November 30, 2020
New COVID Cases in Young Adults (Age 20-39)
Total cases 
by age group
30‐39 2,703
20‐29 3,240

Epi week information includes cases up to and including the week of Nov. 24-30 12
New COVID Cases in Seniors (60+)
Total cases 
by age group
90+
433
80‐89 693
70‐79 906
60‐69 1,503

13
Epi week information includes cases up to and including the week of Nov. 24-30
Outbreaks in Personal Care Homes and Long Term Care
Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul    Aug         Sep               Oct                               Nov Total by Month
Mar 1
Apr 0
May 0
Jun 0
Jul 0
Aug 6
Sep 7
Oct 17
Nov 34
14
Information includes deaths up to November 30, 2020
Manitoba’s model begins with real Manitoba data

1st wave only

Manitoba
Number of
Cases

Information from March 13

to November 28, 2020.
Manitoba data extracted:
2020-12-03.

16
Model then projects total cases

Baseline –
The First Wave
(Projected Cases -
average)

Information from March 13

to November 28, 2020.
Manitoba data extracted:
2020-12-03.

17
Projected cases are extended to a possible range for the model

Baseline –
The First Wave
(Projected Range
of cases)

Information from March 13

to November 28, 2020.
Manitoba data extracted:
2020-12-03.

18
Simulation Scenarios and Projections
Scenario 1 ‐ Extreme
Minimal restrictions and poor compliance lead to a rapid rise in cases.

Scenario 2 ‐ Severe
Some restrictions and poor compliance lead to increased cases.

Scenario 3 ‐ Moderate
More restrictions and good compliance lead to manageable case numbers.

Scenario 4 ‐ Controlled
Full restrictions and good compliance (lockdowns) lead to reduced cases.

19
Projected Number of Diagnosed Cases in Different Scenarios
(daily number of new cases)
Baseline Projections

SCENARIOS
1,055
August 22 November 12 More Cases
Most recent interventions

825

419
Dec. 6

Fewer Cases

Information from July 12

to December 28, 2020.
Manitoba data extracted:
2020-12-03

20
COVID-19 and the Health-Care System

Admissions Occupancy Clinical Beds ICU

21
Hospital admissions tracking against Scenario 3 (moderate)
Incident Number of Hospitalizations (daily number of admissions to clinical beds)
Scenario 4 ‐ Controlled Scenario 2 ‐ Severe

Scenario 3 ‐ Moderate Scenario 1 ‐ Extreme

Information from March 13 to December 31, 2020.

Manitoba:  actual data Projected: average number of cases  Range of possible number of cases 22
Manitoba data extracted: 2020-12-03.
Hospital occupancy tracking against Scenario 2 (severe)
Prevalent Number of Hospitalizations (clinical bed occupancy)
Scenario 4 ‐ Controlled Scenario 2 ‐ Severe

Scenario 3 ‐ Moderate Scenario 1 ‐ Extreme

Information from March 13 to December 31, 2020.

Manitoba:  actual data Projected: average number of cases  Range of possible number of cases 23
Manitoba data extracted: 2020-12-03.
We have expanded hospital capacity
to address this demand
March 2020 November 2020 Maximum Capacity

2,457
2019 3,084 126%
Of Baseline

24
Information up to November 30, 2020
Projections of Clinical Bed Use for COVID-19 Alone
August 22
Baseline Projections

Dec. 15
SCENARIOS
x
100% maximum capacity More Cases

50% maximum capacity

Fewer Cases

Information from July 12

to December 29, 2020.
Manitoba data extracted:
2020-12-03.

25
 ICU admissions tracking against Scenario 3 (moderate)
Prevalent Number of ICU Admissions (ICU occupancy)
Scenario 4 ‐ Controlled Scenario 2 ‐ Severe

This scenario projects fewer and fewer cases, which is

not aligned with an increasing number of cases. 100% maximum capacity

Scenario 3 ‐ Moderate Scenario 1 ‐ Extreme

100% maximum capacity

100% maximum capacity

Information from March 13 to December 31, 2020.

Manitoba:  actual data Projected: average number of cases  Range of possible number of cases 26
Manitoba data extracted: 2020-12-03.
 We have expanded ICU capacity
to address this demand
March 2020 November 2020 Maximum Capacity

102
72
2019 173
240% 
Adult Intensive Care Adult Intensive Care
Of Baseline
Hospital Beds Hospital Beds
27
Information up to November 30, 2020
Projections of ICU Occupancy for COVID-19 Alone
August 22
Baseline Projections

Nov. 23
x SCENARIOS
100% maximum capacity
More Cases

50% maximum capacity

Fewer Cases

Information from July 12

to December 29, 2020.
Manitoba data extracted:
2020-12-03.

28
Manitoba has taken strong action

• Implemented New Public Health

Restrictions
• Increased Health System Capacity
• Introduced New Programs to Support
Manitobans

29
INTERVENTIONS