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    Dr. Zafar Zaheer-Session

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    Usman Zafar
    The document contains time series data on demands 1 through 4 and forecasts with zero errors for the first three time periods. Demand 4 shows higher variability than the other demands, with a spike at time period 4 and again at time period 12. The forecast errors for demand 4 are also higher than the other demands at some time periods.

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    Dr. Zafar Zaheer-Session

    Uploaded by

    Usman Zafar
    17 views12 pages
    The document contains time series data on demands 1 through 4 and forecasts with zero errors for the first three time periods. Demand 4 shows higher variability than the other demands, with a spike at time period 4 and again at time period 12. The forecast errors for demand 4 are also higher than the other demands at some time periods.

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    Forcasting

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    The document contains time series data on demands 1 through 4 and forecasts with zero errors for the first three time periods. Demand 4 shows higher variability than the other demands, with a spike at time period 4 and again at time period 12. The forecast errors for demand 4 are also higher than the other demands at some time periods.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    17 views12 pages

    Dr. Zafar Zaheer-Session

    Uploaded by

    Usman Zafar
    The document contains time series data on demands 1 through 4 and forecasts with zero errors for the first three time periods. Demand 4 shows higher variability than the other demands, with a spike at time period 4 and again at time period 12. The forecast errors for demand 4 are also higher than the other demands at some time periods.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 12

    Time Demand 1 Demand 2 Demand 3 Demand 4 Forecast Error

    1 220 230 233 230 230 0


    2 220 240 235 240 240 0
    3 220 250 245 250 250 0
    4 220 260 267 360 260 0
    5 220 270 273 270 270 0
    6 220 280 278 280 280 0
    7 220 290 285 290 290 0
    8 220 300 303 400 300 0
    9 220 310 307 310 310 0
    10 220 320 321 320 320 0
    11 220 330 326 330 330 0
    12 220 340 248 440 340 0

    Level 220
    Trend 10
    Time Demand 2 Forecast Error
    1 230 230 0
    2 240 240 0
    3 250 250 0
    4 260 260 0
    5 270 270 0 Chart Title
    6 280 280 0 400
    7 290 290 0 350
    8 300 300 0
    300
    9 310 310 0
    250
    10 320 320 0
    11 330 330 0 200

    12 340 340 0 150


    100
    50
    Level 220
    0
    Trend 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

    Time Demand 2
    Chart Title

    3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

    Time Demand 2 Forecast


    Time Demand 3 Forecast Error
    1 233 241.88462 -8.884615
    2 235 248.22378 -13.22378
    3 245 254.56294 -9.562937
    4 267 260.9021 6.0979021
    5 273 267.24126 5.7587413 Chart Title
    6 278 273.58042 4.4195804 350
    7 285 279.91958 5.0804196
    300
    8 303 286.25874 16.741259
    9 307 292.5979 14.402098 250
    10 321 298.93706 22.062937 200
    11 326 305.27622 20.723776
    150
    12 248 311.61538 -63.61538
    100

    50
    Level 235.54545455 0
    Trend 6.3391608392 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

    Time Demand 3
    Chart Title

    4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

    Time Demand 3 Forecast


    Time Demand 4 Forecast Error
    1 230 237.69231 -7.692308
    2 240 250.83916 -10.83916
    3 250 263.98601 -13.98601
    4 360 277.13287 82.867133
    5 270 290.27972 -20.27972 Chart Title
    6 280 303.42657 -23.42657 500
    7 290 316.57343 -26.57343 450
    8 400 329.72028 70.27972 400
    9 310 342.86713 -32.86713 350
    10 320 356.01399 -36.01399 300
    11 330 369.16084 -39.16084 250
    200
    12 440 382.30769 57.692308
    150
    100
    50
    Level 224.54545455
    0
    Trend 13.146853147 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

    Time Demand 4
    Chart Title

    4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

    Time Demand 4 Forecast


    Year Quarter Time Demand 4 Trend 1 Seasonal Factor Seasonal Index
    1 1 1 230 237.69230769 0.96763754045308 0.933971726338
    2 2 240 250.83916084 0.95678840256482 0.9261409216757
    3 3 250 263.98601399 0.94701986754967 0.9189994569338
    4 4 360 277.13286713 1.29901589704769 1.221023617481
    2 1 5 270 290.27972028 0.93013731630932 0.933971726338
    2 6 280 303.42657343 0.92279327033879 0.9261409216757
    3 7 290 316.57342657 0.91605920035344 0.9189994569338
    4 8 400 329.72027972 1.21314952279958 1.221023617481
    3 1 9 310 342.86713287 0.90414032225168 0.933971726338
    2 10 320 356.01398601 0.89884109212336 0.9261409216757
    3 11 330 369.16083916 0.89391930289828 0.9189994569338
    4 12 440 382.30769231 1.15090543259557 1.221023617481

    Level 224.54545
    Trend 13.146853
    Forecast Error Square Error
    221.99789495 8.0021050473 64.0336851888
    232.31241161 7.6875883881 59.0990152244
    242.60300349 7.3969965087 54.7155573503
    338.38577595 21.614224051 467.174681308
    271.11305147 -1.1130514706 1.23888357614
    281.01576637 -1.0157663742 1.0317813269
    290.9308071 -0.9308071006 0.86640185862 500
    402.5962487 -2.5962487009 6.74050731685 450
    320.22820799 -10.228207988 104.616238656
    400
    329.71912114 -9.7191211364 94.4613156643
    350
    339.25861071 -9.25861071 85.72187228
    300
    466.80672145 -26.806721452 718.600315023
    250
    200
    150
    MSE 138.191687898 100
    50
    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

    Time Demand 4 Trend 1 Forecast


    7 8 9 10 11 12

    Trend 1 Forecast
    Trend = Level + Seasonal Factor =
    Quarters Months Time Demand
    (Slop*Time) Demand / Trend

    1 Jan 1 2000 6067.50678 0.329624683171759


    Feb 2 3000 6137.75256 0.488778257297489
    Mar 3 3000 6207.99834 0.483247551899313
    Apr 4 3000 6278.24412 0.477840609995267
    2 May 5 4000 6348.4899 0.630071097695217
    Jun 6 6000 6418.73568 0.934763526514306
    Jul 7 7000 6488.98146 1.078751733712
    Aug 8 6000 6559.22724 0.914741901821959
    3 Sep 9 10000 6629.47302 1.50841552108768
    Oct 10 12000 6699.7188 1.79111994969102
    Nov 11 14000 6769.96458 2.06795764358342
    Dec 12 8000 6840.21036 1.16955467433899

    Level 5997.261 Given in paper


    Slope 70.24578 Given in paper
    Forcast =
    Seasonal index = Avg of Error =
    Trend *
    seasonal factor start of 1, 2 Demand -
    Seasonal
    and 3 Quarters Forcast
    Index
    0.822703767318218 4991.76068613 -2991.76068613
    1.07155391116761 6576.93276145 -3576.93276145
    1.20998564306491 7511.58886357 -4511.58886357
    0.854045728718739 5361.90757454 -2361.90757454
    0.822703767318218 5222.92655751 -1222.92655751
    1.07155391116761 6878.02132266 -878.021322655
    1.20998564306491 7851.57440471 -851.574404714
    0.854045728718739 5601.88000802 398.1199919824
    0.822703767318218 5454.09242889 4545.907571112
    1.07155391116761 7179.10988386 4820.890116137
    1.20998564306491 8191.55994586 5808.440054142
    0.854045728718739 5841.8524415 2158.147558504

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