Towards A Learning System For The 6th Wave of Innovation

crafting innovation together
Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 1

CREATING SPIRAL
LEARNERS
Towards a LEARNING
SYSTEM for the SIXTH
WAVE OF INNOVATION
(2020-2045)
NAVNEET BHUSHAN 10th Aug 2020

Change crafting innovation together
Year 2020 – How quickly can

We embrace the
Creative –
when
Destruction
has struck?
- From The Leopard,
by Giuseppe Tomasi de Lampedusa
Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com

Year 2020 – How quickly can we embrace the New
Creative-Destruction in a Complex World ?

What is being Destroyed?
Every Nation Invested so much of

its GDP in Defence and
maintaining substantial Armed
forces
WHY?
Nikolai Kondrateiff and Joseph Schumpeter
Grandfather of Innovation
• the “creative destruction” associated with industrial cycles
50-60 years long.
• first to challenge classical economics as it sought (and still
seeks) to optimize existing resources within a stable
environment—treating any disruption as an external force on
par with plagues, politics and the weather.
• Analyzed the work of a Russian economist, Nikolai Kondratieff,

(recombination of History and Economics) - long cycles of
Innovation (17.9.1938 – Shot Down By a firing Squad) - Long
Cycles/Waves Theory of Economic development/evolution
through technological innovation

The Grandfather of Capitalism is
Innovation Dynamic
Process of Creative Capitalism is by nature a form of economic change
Destruction (Pages 81- (that) not only never is, but never can be stationary.
86)
Process of Qualitative Change
PROCESS OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION
A normal, healthy Process of Industrial Mutation, incessantly

economy was not one revolutionizes the economic structure from within,
in equilibrium, but one incessantly destroying the OLD one, incessantly
creating a NEW one.
that was constantly
being “disrupted” by
(Usual Focus) how to administer existing structures
technological
(relevant focus out to be) How existing structures
innovation. are destroyed and new ones created
Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 ©
The Economist 20th Feb 1999

THE SIXTH
WAVE ?
25 years
Massively Re-polarising World
Since 2015 – the world China’s Border and

is undergoing a new Road Initiative (BRI)
CREATIVE
DESTRUCTION !
An eminent Chinese scholar - Yan Xuetong states that

the ongoing trade war between not so sincere and
genuine friends – US and China - since

1998 indicate that the world is headed towards a
Bipolar Order that is different from the cold war of
the past in many aspects.
New Bi-polar order is emerging that may rapidly

become a new type of unipolar world under China,
which is what China is aiming at.

Technological
Power System Systems
•Violence •Information Technology
Organization Forms
•Wealth •Hierarchies shifting to Networked form of
•Industrial Automation crafting innovation together
•Knowledge •Genomics Organization
•Knowledge based Violence & •Hierarchical Networks
•Bio-Technology
Wealth •Networked Hierarchies
•Smart Materials
•Violence & Wealth based •Nanotechnology
knowledge •Propulsion Technology
Economic System
Geo Political System •Small more Networked
•Bipolarity/ Multi-polarity Organizations
•Multinational Companies controlling •Rapid Changes in the way wealth
the world is generated
•Reducing Value of Nation State Structure •Low tariff barriers
of World •Common Currencies and
compatible economic systems
•Low entry barriers

Social System
•Rise of the Individual/Ethnic/Religious
groupings
•Nuclear/Single parent family system
•Rise of dissatisfaction
Bhushan N and Rai K., Strategic Decision Making, Jan 2004, Springer, UK.
World is a Continuous Dynamic Flux

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com 10 Jan 2006
Lets Step Back (….few Steps Back )
Human Understanding of A New ERA

Fundaments of …
1. Agriculture
• SPACE-TIME
• ENERGY-MATTER 2. Industries
• INFORMATION 3. Information
• LIFE 4. Bio Technology
ERA OF MIND
5 Fundamentals : The STEMIL-
C-TCP Model crafting innovation together
STEMIL
• SPACE-TIME
• ENERGY-MATTER
• INFORMATION
• LIFE
MIND
• THOUGHT
ERA OF MIND • CONSCIOUSNESS
• POWER
Third Wave of Innovation (1900-1950)

From CRAFT to MASS PRODUCTION
• In 1890, Average company in US

had - FOUR employees (4)
• By 1901, US Steel became world’s
first 1 Billion $ company
• Ford Motor Company, founded in
1903, was producing half a million
cars a by 1913

Ford Assembly Lines - Age of
Specialization crafting innovation together
• To Know more and more and less

and less
• Expertise in specific field, sub-
field, sub-sub-field
• Specialization
• Employees – Jobs for life
• Skills based Employment
• Skilling
• Universities and Schools for Skilled
Manpower to feed into the
massive production factories –
Spurred by Two world wars

Fourth Wave of Innovation (1950-1990)
Cold War, Space Age, Ballistic Missiles

Long Boom (1950s-1973)
Japanese Economic Miracle

Post World War II, 1948……
Toyota in Japan Vs Ford Motors in US
FORD TOYOTA
Financial Condition Deep pockets Close to bankruptcy
Market No 1 in world Very small, limited to Japan
Makes & Models Low High
Production Volumes High Low

Supply Chain Complete Minimal
Inventory Piles of inventory No room for WIP
2007 : Toyota is the World Leader in all aspects of

automotive Industry – Overtook GM in number of Vehicles
sold !
Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com 17/Aug/2007
What is Lean? – A Global Optimizer
Muda
(Waste)
Lean
Mura Muri Toyota Way
(Variability) (Overburden)
Toyota “Lean is the search for

Production perfection through the
System (TPS) elimination of waste and

insertion of practices that
contribute to reduction in
•Post WWII, Taiichi Ohno
cost and schedule while
creates Toyota Production
System (TPS)
improving performance of
products” [Lean Aerospace
•2004, TOY cuts car lead Initiative, MIT, WP99-01-91]
time to 12 months vs. 24-
36 for competition
Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com 17/Aug/2007 Copyr

CONFIDENTIAL© Copyright 2006 Wipro Ltd 19
US Companies
Quality, Statistical Process Control – Six Sigma

“We do not yet know

all the basic laws:
there is an expanding
frontier of ignorance”
~ Richard Feynman
(Lectures on Physics, 1962)

INVENTION and “Method of INVENTING”
• New and Non-obvious Technical • INEFFICIENT PROCESS

Solution to a Problem (Patent Law) • TIME CONSUMING
– New (Novel) in the whole world? • RANDOM
– Non-obvious (there is an • LEAVING IT TO
inventive step) SERENDIPITOUS INSIGHT IN
– Technical solution (“techne”, THE MIND – ARCHIMEDES
Greek for "art, skill, cunning of EUREKA MOMENTS
hand“) • IDEAS COME TO PREPARED
– Problem (usually a conflict, MINDS

contradiction or change)
• Our method of Inventing

TRIAL and ERROR
In Soviet Union ….
“Mind – indeed is Powerful !” crafting innovation together
Altshuller (another Russian Jailed by Stalin

!) – First person who studied and proposed
a Theory of “Inventing” – TRIZ (1950’s-
1985)
At the dawn of the human race mankind

conquered the illuminating power of fire.
Now we are learning to conquer something

much more powerful, the power of mind,
to penetrate and illuminate an unknown
future
The Fifth Wave of Innovation (1990-2020)- Cold War ends,
Globalization, Uni-polar world, Information and Software
Technology, Cyberspace, Nuke tests, terrorism, 9/11

The GIXBang World – Like the Big Bang

Creative Destruction from 4th Wave to 5th Wave
(Software) 1980’s-1990’s
What did the 4th Wave Companies do?

The 4th Wave Companies/Industries (Kodak, Retail Chains/SuperMarkets, GE, IBM,
GM, Toyota, Bosch, P&G, etc)
1. Business Process Re-engineering and Productivity (Six Sigma, Lean)
2. Diversification (Making Elephants Dance (IBM moving to Services from
Products)
3. Acquisitions of relevant software companies – relevant to their core business
and product
4. Open Innovation (P&G Connect and Develop, 50% new product ideas should
come from outside)
5. Imitate the new entrants (new winners)
The Core Business Resource – However was different in 5th Wave of Innovation
(Information) - ALGORITHMS
WHAT IS The Key Distinguishing Feature of
these Successful Businesses – The Fifth Wave ?

More is Different – Scale is the New Frontier


Software Challenge of the future Why
we don’t know how to Design ULSS?
System Design - Present Approaches ULS Characteristics

All conflicts must be resolved centrally and uniformly Decentralized Control
Requirements can be known in advance and change slowly. Inherently conflicting, unknowable,
Tradeoff decisions will be stable. and diverse requirements
Discrete Time System improvements Continuous evolution and
Effect of a change can be predicted sufficiently well.
Configuration information
Components and users are fairly homogeneous.
People are just users of the system.
? deployment
Heterogeneous, inconsistent,
changing elements
Erosion of the people/system
and
Collective behavior of people is not of interest. boundary

Social interactions are not relevant.
Normal Failures
Failures will occur infrequently. Defects can be removed.
A prime contractor is responsible for system development,
New paradigms for acquisition and
operation, and evolution. policy

Potential Drivers for the Sixth Wave of
Innovation (Next 25 years)
(1) THINGS – NANO, NETWORKED,

AUTONOMOUS & HYPERSONIC
Pace of Innovation
(2) ALGORITHMIC INTELLIGENCE WITH

QUANTUM COMPUTING
(3) SYNTHESIZED – BIOLOGY, ENERGY
& REALITY
Year 2020-2045
The Economist 20th Feb 1999
+ Crafitti’s Sixth Wave of Innovation
(The Sixth Wave) 25 years

The Sixth Wave of Innovation
(1) THINGS – NANO, NETWORKED, AUTONOMOUS & HYPERSONIC

(2) ALGORITHMIC INTELLIGENCE WITH QUANTUM COMPUTING
(3) SYNTHESIZED – BIOLOGY, ENERGY & REALITY
Years 2015-2020-2045
1st Wave: Cotton, Iron, Water power 1785- 1845 (60 Years)
2nd Wave: Railways, Steam, Mechanization 1845-1900 (55 Years)
3rd Wave: Steel, Heavy Engineering, Electricity 1900-1950 (50 Years)

4th Wave: Petrochemicals, Electronics, Aviation 1950-1990 (40 Years)
5th Wave: Software, Digital Networks, Mobility 1990-2020 (30 Years)
Sixth WoI
Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. 2015 2020 2025 August

www.crafitti.com 2030
10, 2020 2045 ©
If the Key Resource for 5th Wave
companies … was
• ALGORITHMS
Key Resource for 6th Wave companies … will be

• ALGORITHMIC INTELLIGENCE
• QUANTUM ALGORITHMIC
INTELLIGENCE
Information-era Artificial
Intelligence and Systems with a
appropriate MIND (2012-2035)
Understanding and making matter

intelligent – Systems with Artificial

Quantum Intelligence (2030-2045)

Anti-Fragile
Soviet-Harvard Illusion
“Lecturing Birds on flight

and thinking that the
lecture caused their skill
at flying” Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Proposed a NEW LAW (2012)
Very clearly visible in the software based Era
of technical systems that we are in!
Law of Increasing
Intelligence of
Technical Systems
http://aitriz.org/triz-articles/inside-triz/596-law-of-increasing-intelligence-of-
Confidentialtechnical-systems
© Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 ©


Key Skill needed: INVENTING STRONG

“INVENTIVE
TRANSFORMATION” crafting innovation together
in
“CREATIVE
DESTRUCTION”
THE SIXTH WAVE OF

INNOVATION (2020-2045)
A NEW LEARNING SYSTEM IS NEEDED
Competitive Advantage- Over Ages
How Fast
Co-Create
Extent of Connectedness
How Fast
Innovate
How much
Actionable
Knowledge
How much and

Quickly can be
Informed
How much can In the Connected Age –
How much of be produced
Agricultural land Co-Creators will thrive
and Natural
Resources
Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. Time www.crafitti.com


3 Conditions for Learning
Low Threat and

1. Relaxed Alertness
High Challenge
Environment
2. Orchestrated
Immersion 3. Active Processing
Experiences
processed as the
In Multiple,
basis of
Complex,
Meaning
Authentic
Experiences
• Chaotic Dumbness (High Threat, Low Challenge)
– Comply with this or else…

– Constant use of “Killer Phrases” to destroy new ideas
• Automated Disjointedness (Delegation, Hands Off)
– Follow the process, don’t worry about anything

– Processes above people – Right processes Mandated will create
results
– “Skill Set” based work assignment
• Passive Analysis (Data Collection, Historical Data Analysis)
– Give me all the data that has been accumulated – I will analyze
and give you Insights
– Quantify – if you cant quantify you don’t really know?
– We will do a Quarterly Analysis to provide you results
From Chaotic Dumbness to Relaxed Alertness
From Automated Disjointedness to Orchestrated Immersion

From Passive Analysis to Active Processing

The ORGANIZATIONAL SWEET SPOT –
Frequently Heard Comments
• You Must. • Can you think of other options?
• That’s not my Job. • Am I on the right track?
• You have no choice. • Lets take another look at that deadline.
• Have you forgotten the deadline? • Thanks for taking the initiative.
• We need to talk. • How often should we meet?
• It’s the bottom line that counts. • We’re in it together.
• This is for your own good. • What’s your gut feeling on this?
• Get off my back. • How can I help?
• I don’t care how you feel. • Is this mutually beneficial?

• You had better pay attention to • How does this support our overall
company policy. activities?
• Don’t you understand? • Please take a real critical look at my
• Is it time to go home yet? proposal.
• How time flies.
Controlled-Access Context Shared-Access Context
“INVENTIVE crafting innovation together
TRANSFORMATION”
For
“MASSIVE
RE_INVENTION”
HOW – Learning System

“If our small minds, for some

convenience divide this universe,
into parts – physics, biology,
geology, astronomy, psychology
and so on – remember that
nature does not know it ” ~

Richard Feynman (Lectures on
Physics, 1962)

Learning


Problems with conventional Learning


Artful Making crafting innovation together

4 Qualities of Artful Making
Accept wide • Interactions

variations among members
within known of the groups
parameters
Release Play
Collaboratio
Ensemble
n
• Conversation. • Work of a group
• Released from Vanity, dedicated to
inhibition, preconception collaboration
• Treat other inputs as • Create a whole greater
material to make with than sum of its parts
• So that New Ideas emerge


We Are All Born Creative…. crafting innovation together
BUT
It is “Taught OUT of US”
A child’s Creativity
How Many of
Decreases 90% from 5 to
us Are 40 or
age 7? At 40 it is mere
above?
2% of what we had!!!!!!!
Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com Copyright Navneet Bhushan
Learning Model for the Sixth Wave of

Innovation (2020-2045)
Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com HOPE

New Age of PolyMaths
(Source: Wikipedia)
Von Wowern defined polymathy as
"knowledge of various matters, drawn
from all kinds of studies [...] ranging
freely through all the fields of the
disciplines, as far as the human mind,
with unwearied industry, is able to
pursue them"
Leonardo da Vinci –
Everyone can not
be – part Vincis are
needed
Dynamic Learner
Braadly Staat
9. Learning Mindsets – Focused, Fast, Frequent & Flexible
8. Learning from and with Others
7. Specialization +
6. Find and Accentuate your strengths not try to
variety
fix your weakness/limitations
5. Being Yourself is essential for 4. Action without reflection hinders

learning learning
3. Learning to ask & frame
2. Learning requires process focus
Questions
1. Failures are opportunities to learn

Learning Outcome
Creating Dynamic, Ultra learners who are passionate to learn by

expanding their range of skills, thinking and domains, to transform into
a Spiral Learner (Evolutionary Learner – who is designed to evolve
through continuous learning)
4th Wave of Innovation 5th Wave of Innovation 6th Wave of Innovation
Education System Education System Education System
(1950-1990) (2020-2045)
(1990-2020)
I shaped T shaped # shaped

people people X shaped
The traditional Our educational system is just
educational starting to shift to produce T- M shaped
shaped people – Specialist with Spiral
system is built W shaped
to produce I- empathy and enthusiastic Learner
collaboration with other fields
shaped people.

SPIRAL LEARNER (one
path) -
ACTION (X) MIND (M)

Real Life Experiences Sensory inputs, Thoughts,
NATURAL (N) Response, Common Sense
of the learner (1) response (2)
Expression of Ideas Concepts, Ideas,

ARTIFICIAL (A) (tangible), Change creation, Experiences, Stories,(3)
Innovation, Invention, linkages, Theories,
engineering, play (4) hypothesis, design, structure,
whatif, why, planning

PASSION ….. Is the new Skill for the
New World …

Aligning Learner Passion with his/her
Learning – Resonance Framework
Passion Metric for Learning

5th January 2019
Navneet Bhushan (Crafitti) and

M Sundarrajan (Acelane)
Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com ©

Passion and Learning
Passion: Strong and barely controllable emotion

Learning: is the process of acquiring new, or modifying existing - knowledge,
behaviors, skills, values, or preferences.

Passion for Learning Framework – Resonance
potential of passion traits shown and potential to
experience social success

Key Points
A Resonance Framework has been developed and

proposed that captures inherent passion traits of the learner
and assesses the potential to experience social success
thereby guiding the assessment of feasibility of emotional
ignition

Explore “Un-Common Sense and Uncommon
1 Non-Sense”

2 7Ps and 7Ds crafting innovation together
• 7Ps • 7Ds Uncommon

1. Passion 1. Discover Sense and
2. Patience Non-Sense
2. Define
for
3. Perseverance 3. Describe (common)
People (8th
4. Planning 4. Design
5. Pride 5. Develop P) will lead
6. Purpose 6. Deploy to the 9th P
7. Planet (The Profit)
7. Deduce
3 Competitive Advantage- Over Ages
Co-Create Fast
with
increasingly
intelligent
How Fast machines
Co-Create
Extent of Connectedness
How Fast
Innovate
How much
Actionable
Knowledge
How much and
Quickly can be
Informed
How much can In the Connected Age –
How much of be produced
Agricultural Co-Creators will thrive
land and Natural
Resources
6 WoI (2020-2045)
Time
NEW RULES (of war and Business) –
John Arquilla
• Rule 1: "Many and Small"

Beats "Few and Large.“
• Rule 2: Finding Matters More

Than Flanking.
• Rule 3: Swarming Is the New

Surging.
a primary maneuver that results in an attack from multiple
directions (all points on the compass) by 5 or more (semi)
autonomous units on a single target/unit.
Smart Swarms – Co-Bots and Humans – can
4 they be designed from nature’s algorithms
• ANTS – {Ants are not smart – ant colonies are} Researchers

• HONEYBEES – (Making Smart Decisions} found that robot-
• TERMITES – {One thing leads to another – cascading
crisis}
human teams
• BIRD FLOCKS – {Local intelligence to global behavior} were about 85 per
• LOCUSTS – {Explaining Stampedes and avoiding them} cent more
• Smart Swarm Principles (From wisdom of crowds to productive than
wisdom of Co-Bots and Human teams) either alone.
• Self-Organization
– Decentralized Control
– Distributed Problem Solving
– Multiple repeated Interactions amongst the members
– Healthy dose of randomness in individual behavior
• Diversity of Knowledge
– Tapping into unique knowledge and skill of each entity
– Friendly competition of ideas – Healthy competition with your
Co-Bot?
– Positive feedback/ Multi-voting
EMERGING ALGORITHMIC NEEDS –
5 THREE FUTURE NEEDS
• ULTRA LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS - Complex Adaptive

Systems – Scale is the new Frontier – Our algorithms
that help us make buildings will not be the same that
will help us build Cities – More is Different
• INTELLIGENCE OF MACHINES – Evolving technical

system to increasing cognitive capabilities – Machines
with a mind of their own – Assisting Humans with Non-
Human machine intelligence - Law of Increasing
Intelligence of Technical Systems
• NETWORK SYSTEMS - Understanding and Operating ISR

IW
C4
in Networks, System of Systems, Social Network Space

Cmd & Control
Analysis, Network Science, Multi-dimensional Networks, Air

Communications
Taxonomy of Networks – Only Networks can fight Sea

Computers
Networks Gnd
System Integration
ILSS

The 12 Technological Forces (Kevin Kelly) –
6 Digital Functions for your Business
• Becoming – {Continuous interaction with change}

• Cognifying – {Many different types of minds}
• Flowing – { Hierarchies, Flat Webs , Realtime Streams -
Discoverability}
• Screening – {Oral/Sound, Printed/Books, Interactive
Visual projectivity}
• Accessing – {From Ownership to Accessibility}
• Sharing – {Cooperation, collaboration, Collectivism}
• Filtering – {Preferences, Peers, Brands, …}
• Remixing – {Fungible “bits” re-do to build hybrids}

• Interacting –{ More senses, intimacy and immersion}
• Tracking – { movement, web, social, reading … }
• Questioning – {Asking “good questions” that google
can’t answer}
• Beginning – { Start of the “Singularity” when Biological
Intelligence will be exceeded by the non-biological one}
Make your products Smart, Brilliant and
7 Genius
Intelligence of Things
TS - 6th Wave of Innovation (Guided/
Smart/Brilliant Teeth Cleaning System )
Crafitti’s System-Function
Interaction Tool for
Transformation
Smart/Brilliant/Genius
Systems
A Hidden Resource in brushing
system (in all Mechanical Number of Root-Canal
surgeries and visits to
systems) is the daily interaction

data that gets wasted. This data Dentists in your life time can
can lead to appropriate prediction be reduced considerably !.
of health/status for each teeth
(potential cavities)
2045 -> Genius ToothBrushes -

> that generate their own ideas
and Knowledge !
HOW TO THINK
When Einstein was

asked what was most
helpful to him in
developing the theory
of relativity, he
replied,
“Figuring out how to think
Confidential
about the problem.”
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FIND THE 6WOI Inventive Problems – WORLD
10 NEEDS TO SOLVE
A Comprehensive Focused
Search for What Inventive
Problems World is Solving and
how you with your capabilities

can participate

Problems Opportunities Needs (PONs)
(copyright @crafitti)
• NEED • OPPORTUNITY
– Basic needs (human) – A situation that presents itself
– Functional (utility) to “move-up” from “fulfilling
– Emotional some need” and/or “gaining
better or more value”
– Aspirations
– It can be created in a dynamic
– Desires situation
– Value (arbitrary, – It can have timeliness to it
personal, Variable, (window of opportunity)

cultural, range of
possibilities) – It may have strategic,
operational or tactical levels
• PROBLEMS
– To meet the Need and Capture opportunities there may be
problems
– Routine, Non-Routine, “inventive” problems, “Wicked” Problems
Wicked Problems
“6WoI” makes it
More Wicked !
SBU’s/
Horizontals/
11 Verticals of
Suppliers
Large Corp Customer
Academic Co-
Research Creation
OPEN
Competitors INNOVATI SMEs
/Industry ON
Leaders
Large
Corp
Capabilities
and Services Govt
Knowledge
Developers
Partners
funded VALUE In
R&D
the Edges ©
Making OI– Resonate and
Designing the Fit crafting innovation together
StartUp Questions
Which stage of OI is the
Incumbent ?
4 Visibilities
• Relationship
Incumbent • Value
TRUST • Opportunity
Technology Briefs/Science
problems/Needs/adjacencies
• Newness
(Invention)

12
Value? – ALWAYS DEFINE
• Customer defined
• Opaque
• Contextual
• Multidimensional
• Tradeoff
• Relative
• It is a Mindset
“The perceived worth of the set of benefits received by a customer in exchange

for the total cost of the offering, taking into consideration available
competitive offerings and pricings” Prof Mohanbir Sahney

CREATE - The Enterprise Innovation System
13 crafting innovation together
A. Re-vector all employees whose Jobs have been destroyed to

catalyze the NEW
B. Build “Skin-in-the-game” Employment Models
C. Let them “Burn their Hands” Quickly
D. Develop and maximize “Integrative Thinking”
E. Develop and Coach them for “6WoI” Thinking Dimensions
F. Build a Learning System to create “Spiral learners”
G. Transform them into “Archemedes” without the need for a

bathtub
… because every mind that works with you is an IDEA

MACHINE and Ideas are the new currency

SKIN IN THE GAME (2018)
Evolution
“There is no Evolution
without the Skin in the
Game” Nassim Nicholas Taleb

A New Way - INNOHOW
Innovation HOW?
DESIGN THE
FIND
NEEDED CHANGE
DESIGN
AND MAKE IT
EVOLVE
SUCCESSFUL

FIND the Needed Change
1. SEE 2. OBSERVE
What needs to Be
CHANGED –
Reach the SOUL
3. UNDERSTAND
4. LIVE
DESIGN The Needed Change –
Integrated Thinking
VALUE
THINKING
LOGICAL (Minimize Waste – INVENTIVE
THINKING Maximize Value) THINKING
(Informal and (Ideality – Functions
Formal Reasoning) – Resources)
ANALYTICAL
THINKING SYSTEMS
(Divide complex
problems into
ALVIS THINKING
(Holistic Approach
multiple solvable – Exploring
problems ) Complexity)

USE SCAN–6th WoI Thinking Skills
ALGORITHMIC
COMPUTATI THINKING (Reducing
ONAL to Machine Driven
THINKING Procedures)
(Data driven
Understanding)
SCALE
THINKING SCAN NETWORK
(Using Laws of THINKING
Scaling and (Maximizing Value
Blitzscaling ) through Network
Resonance)
EVOLVE/ADAPT TO & FOR CHANGE
1. COMMUNICATE
2. RELATE CRAFT The
Designed
3. ALLOW Change
4. FOLLOW-UP
5. TURN-AROUND
Crafitti’s Framework for Innovation
1. EXPLORE
SEE OBSERVE UNDERSTAND AND LIVE
– Reach to the SOUL of a System
2. IDEATE
INVOKE – ALVIS-SCAN IN YOU – Analytical
Logical Value Inventive and Systems and Scale
Computational Algorithmic and Network

Thinking
3. EMPOWER IDEAS
CRAFT CHANGE – Connect, Relate,
Allow, Follow-Up, Turn-Around
Each employee may be good at some part of
the innovation framework – Stitch a team !

Be Paranoid but don’t Fear
Andy Grove (Ex-Chief of Intel)

Use Science as your Truth Prism

Platform Economy
Unorganized Many to Many Unorganized/Or

Set of Users
Individual ganized Set of
Transactions Providers
PLATFORM
Amazon,
Uber,
Linkedin,
Facebook,
Swiggy …
N Sided Business Models
Unorganized N-sided Unorganized/Or

Set of Users PLATFORM ganized Set of
Providers
Students
Complex Network of Networks

– Algorithmic Design of Trust
(Blockchain) , Negotiations,
Decisions, actions

BlitzScaling – Business Model
Types of Scaling Efficiency Speed

Uncertainty Classic Start-up Growth BlitzScaling
Certainty Classic Scale-up Growth FastScaling
Basics of BlitzScaling
Stage 1 (Family) 1-9 Employees 1. Both Offensive and Defensive Strategy
Stage 2 (Tribe) 10s of Employees 2. Thrives on Positive Feedback loops – First scaled
Stage 3 (Village) 100s of Employees company reaps significant competitive advantage
3. Comes with Massive Risks
Stage 4 (City) 1000s of Employees

Stage 5 (Nation) 10000s of Employees
3 Key techniques
1. Business Model Innovation
2. Strategy Innovation
3. Management Innovation

Business Model Innovation
Entrepreneurship in the Internet Era – Business Model Innovation Story

4 Growth Factors 2 Growth Limiters
1. Market Size – Large Potential Customers + 1. Lack of product/market fit – Establishing
Different Channels to Reach them product/market fit will require – Lean StartUp
2. Distribution – (a) Leverage existing networks methods – Quick Hypothesis testing and articulation
(b) Virality – Free Products or Freemium 2. Operational Scalability – Human Limit and
3. High Gross Margins – (Higher revenue create Infrastructure limit
higher profits; Cost of production of more
units/copies should tend to Zero (for example
digital/software products) – A non-linear 7 proven patterns 3 principles
business
4. Network Effects – When increased usage by any
user increases the value of the product or service 1. Bits rather than atoms 1. Moore’s Law
for other users 2. Platforms 2. Automation
• Direct network effects 3. Free or Freemium 3. Contrarian
• Indirect network effects 4. MarketPlaces Principle
• Two-sided network effects 5. Subsricptions
• Local network effects 6. Digital goods
• Compatibility and Standards 7. Feeds

The Fourth Paradigm – Data Intensive Scientific
18 Discovery
(1) Empirical Observation (pre-Galileo) (2) Theory based on

mathematics and models (post-Newtonian) (3) Computation and
Simulation
Unification of theory,
4th experiment and Strategic
Paradigm simulation technology for
Emphasis on Data
6WoI – Explosion
gathering and analysis of Digital Twins
Digital Twins
DT technologies enable us to
A digital twin is a digital replica of a create a virtual duplicate of
living or non-living physical entity. our real system and therefore
By bridging the physical and the provide us with a platform to
virtual world, data is transmitted review activities, interactions
seamlessly allowing the virtual entity
and consequences of different
to exist simultaneously with the
physical entity. decisions within the real
system.

The Digital Twin technologies – Distinguishing features
(1) Connectivity (IoT) – Physical-Digital; Organizations, Products and

Customers (2) Homogenization – Data increasingly in digital format;
allows decoupling from of rich-information from the physical artifacts
(3) Reprogrammable and Smart – Run-time emergence of
functionalities and smart adaptability of the systems (4) Digital Traces
(5) System Improvement by Modular evolution
Digital Twin Learning System

Learners using Digital Twin Real-Time Gaming and
of the Physical Market place Simulation and what-if
can gain virtual-experience analysis can be seen and
by observing and experimented by the learners
participating in a safe-mode
to the actual physical
interactions
We are Sandwiched in TIME ! .. Space,
Information and Mind as well

We have to give it a try with what we
19 have
Albert Einstein Says
Sometimes one pays the

most for the things one
gets for nothing
The whole of science is nothing more than the

refinement of everyday THINKING
Even if you
are about to
be KILLED.
Remember : It is HARD.
You Need to be HARDER
CRAFTING NEW
CHOICES – crafting innovation together
INNOVATION AND
DECISIONS IN
GLOBALIZING WORLD
Thank You!
Navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com
+91 9902766961
WWW.CRAFITTI.COM
https://www.facebook.com/crafitti
NAVNEET BHUSHAN
Founder director of CRAFITTI CONSULTING
navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com
(www.crafitti.com) – an innovation research and
Phone: +91 9902766961 consulting firm–global clients, HQ @Bangalore.
CEO and co-founder CraftoPlex,
Post Graduate Diploma in IPR (NLSIU, Bangalore), Advisor Acclivis technologies
Diploma Patent Information (The Netherlands), Member of Board of School of National Security
M.Tech (Computer Science & Engg) IIT Madras, M.Sc
Studies, Central University Gujarat
(Software Science) Allahabad University, B.Sc (Hons.)
Principal author of Strategic Decision Making- Applying the
Physics (Delhi University)
Analytic Hierarchy Process published by Springer-Verlag, UK, as
part of the Decision Engineering Series, currently 890+ citations
on Google Scholar. Book featured at Harvard Business School
Interviewed Working Knowledge for Business Leaders.
• Indian National TV as Patent Expert Trained more than 5000 senior and middle level executives of
• All India Radio as Innovation Expert companies such as, Cap-Gemini, HAL, LG, IOCL, GAIL, Wipro,
• The Hindu/ The BusinessLine Honeywell, Infosys, Aditya Birla Group, ABB, GE, Hughes,
Philips, Thomson-Reuters, CavinKare, TVS Motors, Weir
Awards/Honours Minerals, and many Govt Organizations DRDO, ISRO, etc. More
• Entrepreneurial Innovation and Leadership than 65 research papers and articles. Blogs at
Award for 2012, January, 2012 http://innovationcrafting.blogspot.com
• The Society for Reliability Engineering, Quality
and Operations Management (SREQOM) Previously held various corporate positions include
Conferred an Award to Navneet for his Vice-President and Head (Innovation) with Hexaware
outstanding contributions as an Author, Technologies), Principal Consultant with Wipro, CEO of CREAX
Researcher, Consultant and Innovator at its 6th India., Technology Specialist at Philips global Intellectual Property
International Conference at Delhi University, & Standards (IP&S) division, Senior Research Associate with
November 2012. Infosys Technologies Scientist at ISSA, Defence Research and
Development Organization (DRDO), 1990-2000

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crafting innovation together

crafting innovation together

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 1

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 2

Year 2020 – How quickly can

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 4

Every Nation Invested so much of

• Analyzed the work of a Russian economist, Nikolai Kondratieff,

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 6

PROCESS OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION

A normal, healthy Process of Industrial Mutation, incessantly

crafting innovation together

Since 2015 – the world China’s Border and

An eminent Chinese scholar - Yan Xuetong states that

genuine friends – US and China - since

New Bi-polar order is emerging that may rapidly

which is what China is aiming at.

•Low entry barriers

World is a Continuous Dynamic Flux

Human Understanding of A New ERA

• LIFE 4. Bio Technology

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 13

• In 1890, Average company in US

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 14

• To Know more and more and less

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 15

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 16

Japanese Economic Miracle

Production Volumes High Low

2007 : Toyota is the World Leader in all aspects of

Toyota “Lean is the search for

System (TPS) elimination of waste and

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com 17/Aug/2007 Copyr

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 20

“We do not yet know

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 ©

• New and Non-obvious Technical • INEFFICIENT PROCESS

– Problem (usually a conflict, MINDS

• Our method of Inventing

Altshuller (another Russian Jailed by Stalin

At the dawn of the human race mankind

conquered the illuminating power of fire.

Now we are learning to conquer something

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 24

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 25

What did the 4th Wave Companies do?

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crafting innovation together

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 28

System Design - Present Approaches ULS Characteristics

Collective behavior of people is not of interest. boundary

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Pvt. Ltd. www.crafitti.com August 10, 2020 29

(1) THINGS – NANO, NETWORKED,

(2) ALGORITHMIC INTELLIGENCE WITH

(The Sixth Wave) 25 years

(1) THINGS – NANO, NETWORKED, AUTONOMOUS & HYPERSONIC

3rd Wave: Steel, Heavy Engineering, Electricity 1900-1950 (50 Years)