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IEH3Q2 – Simulasi Komputer

Data Collection and Analysis

Jurusan Teknik Industri

Fakultas Rekayasa Industri
Ganjil 19/20

Acuan:
 Harrell, C. , “Simulation Using ProModel, 2nd Edition”, The McGraw-Hill, 2004.
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Make Assumptions

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Making Assumptions

 A simulation model can run with incorrect data but not with incomplete data
 If after data gathering not all data is complete, accurate, nor up-to-date, we can
make some assumptions regarding any unknown future condition
 Incorporating assumptions into a model can actually help validate our assumptions
by seeing whether they make sense in the overall operation of the model.
 For comparative studies, the fact that assumptions are made is less significant
because we are evaluating relative performance, not absolute performance.

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Making Assumptions

 Some assumptions will naturally have a greater influence on the validity of a model
than others. Here, sensitivity analysis can indicate just how accurate an
assumption needs to be.
 A simple approach to sensitivity analysis for a particular assumption is to run three
different scenarios showing:
1. “best” or most optimistic case
2. “worst” or most pessimistic case
3. “most likely” or best-guess case
 These three scenarios will help determine the extent to which the assumption
influences model behavior and also assess the risk relying on the particular
assumption.
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