Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal 21 (2018) 428–438

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Engineering Science and Technology,

an International Journal
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jestch

Full Length Article

Solar photovoltaic power forecasting using optimized modified extreme

learning machine technique
Manoja Kumar Behera a,⇑, Irani Majumder b, Niranjan Nayak a
a
Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, SOA Deemed To Be University, Bhubaneswar 751030, India
b
Department of Electrical Engineering, SOA Deemed To Be University, Bhubaneswar 751030, India

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Prediction of photovoltaic power is a significant research area using different forecasting techniques mit-
Received 18 November 2017 igating the effects of the uncertainty of the photovoltaic generation. Increasingly high penetration level of
Revised 27 March 2018 photovoltaic (PV) generation arises in smart grid and microgrid concept. Solar source is irregular in nat-
Accepted 18 April 2018
ure as a result PV power is intermittent and is highly dependent on irradiance, temperature level and
Available online 8 May 2018
other atmospheric parameters. Large scale photovoltaic generation and penetration to the conventional
power system introduces the significant challenges to microgrid a smart grid energy management. It is
Keywords:
very critical to do exact forecasting of solar power/irradiance in order to secure the economic operation
PV array
Extreme learning machine
of the microgrid and smart grid. In this paper an extreme learning machine (ELM) technique is used for
Maximum power point tracking PV power forecasting of a real time model whose location is given in the Table 1. Here the model is asso-
Particle swarm optimization ciated with the incremental conductance (IC) maximum power point tracking (MPPT) technique that is
Craziness particle swarm optimization based on proportional integral (PI) controller which is simulated in MATLAB/SIMULINK software. To train
Accelerate particle swarm optimization single layer feed-forward network (SLFN), ELM algorithm is implemented whose weights are updated by
Single layer feed-forward network different particle swarm optimization (PSO) techniques and their performance are compared with exist-
ing models like back propagation (BP) forecasting model.
Ó 2018 Karabuk University. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC
BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

1. Introduction tional electricity grid [3]. In addition to this, photovoltaic (PV)

The global warming and the energy crisis over the past few dec-
ades because of huge consumption of fossil fuel has highly
impacted on government economic policy, climatic conditions
and energy security issues which have motivated the development
and use of alternative, sustainable, and clean energy sources that
would replace the present energy production [1]. The whole world
was forced to concentrate on the use of renewable energy
resources in order to avoid the emergency power failure, to reduce
the amount of CO2 emission and to have control on pollution level.
For this reason, there is a consistent increase in interest and devel-
opment in the solar and wind energy [2]. But it creates a lot of
problem to equip such energy resources and for this very reason
we can’t fully rely on the amount of generation of renewable
energy for the national power system.
The photovoltaic power forecasting is a key factor which is reli-
able and cost effective for large scale integration of the conven-
⇑ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: manoj04manoj04@gmail.com (M.K. Behera).
Peer review under responsibility of Karabuk University.
power forecasting is essential to restructure and install large PV
generating station, power system stabilization, green power busi-
ness, and power disturbance warning on self-governing power sys-
tem [4]. The power prediction is also essential for the supervision
of power system utility which helps in reducing the use of reserve
capacity of generating station by making right decision to unit
commitment [5]. Thus, it plays an important role in decreasing
the cost of electricity production and becomes helpful for the sys-
tem reliability.
Thus, it is extremely important for generation, transmission and
energy management [6]. Energy production for the next day has to
be planned on the previous day and this PV power forecasting pro-
cess for the next day is a daily routine for the PV power generating
station. The forecasting error affects the economic operations a lot
and also the productivity of the power system [7]. Due to different
atmospheric parameters like temperature, cloud quantity and dust,
accurate PV power prediction can be a difficult task. Different fore-
casting techniques have been introduced in past few decades in the
area of PV power forecasting for PV generating station at utility
scale. PV generation forecasting methods can be roughly classified
into four methods such as hybrid approach, artificial intelligence

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jestch.2018.04.013
2215-0986/Ó 2018 Karabuk University. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
 M.K. Behera et al. / Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal 21 (2018) 428–438
(AI) approach, statistical method, and physical approach. Statistical
approaches are usually based on data-driven formulation to
forecast solar time series by using historical measured data [8].
Artificial intelligent techniques like artificial neural network
(ANN) [9], back propagation are the constituents of statistical
approach [10]. Physical models predict solar irradiance and PV
generation which are usually based on numerical weather predic-
tion (NWP) or satellite images [11,12]. Finally the combination of
the above aforesaid methods leads to a new approach which is
nothing but hybrid approaches [13]. In practice, to meet the
requirements of the decision-making process, various forecasting
approaches are taken into account depending on different scales
of prediction horizons [14].
The other type of statistical forecasting approach in power gen-
eration system includes time series along with regression analysis
[15], such as linear regression model (LRM) [16,17], multiple linear
regressions model (MLRM), nonlinear regression analysis,
autoregressive (AR) model [18,19], moving average (MA) models,
autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model and no stationary
time-series [20]. The statistical forecasting techniques first needs
some mathematical relationships to identify the changes among
various factors like load, consumption time and the total output
value of industry in electricity gross domestic product and then
only forecasting can be done by using mathematical model. It
may take some longer time to complete the entire process as it
concentrates on calibration of mathematical model and its adjust-
ment process.
This paper represents the state of art of PV power forecasting
technique developed over the past few years in comparison to
the proposed forecasting technique [21,22]. The most extensively
used forecasting models; the extreme learning machine is applied
to predict the PV power for short term basis and compare its perfor-
mance with existing algorithm like back propagation (BP) trained
artificial algorithm. Arbitrary selection of input weights and hidden
biases creates challenges like uncertain performance and over fit-
ting of extreme learning machine (ELM) which is still needed to
be solved. One of the challenges in this study is the proper selection
of weights for the forecasting model [23]. The various modified par-
ticle swarm optimization (PSO) are tested to select the appropriate
values of weights of the neural network which can improve the
forecast errors. It is seen that the ELM optimized with accelerate
particle swarm optimization (APSO) technique performs better
than other optimization algorithms, such as classical PSO and crazi-
ness particle swarm optimization (CRPSO).
Rest part of the paper is arranged as follows. The section-2,
explain the mathematical model of photovoltaic cell and the
incremental conductance maximum power point tracking (MPPT)
technique. The section-3, gives a broad idea about forecasting
characteristic and different forecasting horizons. The various types
120
100
80
PV Power (W)
60
40
20
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Time (s)
(a)
Fig. 1. Power extracted from PV module with MPPT techniques (a) P&O and (b) IC Based on PI.
429
of modified PSO techniques and ELM algorithm with the block dia-
gram of proposed model are discussed in the section-4. In
section-5 and 6 simulation results and conclusions are discussed
respectively.
2. PV model
The outcome of PV forecasting is solar irradiance or photo-
voltaic power. The properties of solar power generation like system
variables, prediction horizon are highly essential for prediction of
PV power and energy management. Standardized performance
evaluation indices help in developing new solar energy predictors
and forecasting models.
2.1. PV generation
The predicted output of PV power is affected by many factors
like the measurement of solar irradiance, reflectivity, estimation
of PV cell temperatures etc [24]. The maximum power output is
modeled by
PV ¼ gAI½1  0:05ðt  25Þ ð1Þ
where g represents the conversion efficiency (%) of the PV array, A is
the array area (m2), ‘I’ is the solar Irradiance (kW/m2), and ‘t’ is the
outside air temperature (°C). The parameters of the simulink model
under study are mentioned as maximum power Pmax = 105 W,
voltage at maximum power Vmax = 18.46 V, current at maximum
power Imax = 5.74A, short circuit current Isc = 6.11A, open-circuit
voltage Voc = 21.6 V, shunt resistance Rsh = 1000O, series resistance
Rs = 0.0001O, number of series cells Ns = 36, number of parallel cell
NP = 1 [25,26].
2.2. Maximum power point tracking (MPPT)
This method can be implemented by addition of a PI controller
which can improve the incremental conductance (IC) MPPT perfor-
mance by reducing the error between the actual conductance and
the incremental conductance so that the required adjustment can
be done and the system can be gradually updated according to
necessity. Moreover, this PI controller overcomes the drawbacks
of perturb and observe (P&O) MPPT technique like its oscillation
around the MPP under fast varying atmospheric condition shown
in Figs. 1 and 2. Whether MPPT has reached the MPP or not, it is
determined by the increment conductance of PV module and also
it determines the stopping criteria for perturbation at the operat-
ing point [27,28]. In this MPPT technique, the MPP can be derived
from the relation between dI/dV and I/V. The slope dP/dV is nega-
tive when the maximum power point is right side of the P-V curve
120
100
80
PV Power (W)
60
40
20
6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Time (s)
(b)
430 M.K. Behera et al. / Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal 21 (2018) 428–438

106 P&O 106 IC Based on PI

105 105
104

PV Power (W)
104
PV Power (W)

103 103
102 102
101 101
100 100
99 99
3 3.01 3.02 3.03 3.04 3.05 3.06 3.07 3.08 3.09 3.1 3 3.01 3.02 3.03 3.04 3.05 3.06 3.07 3.08 3.09 3.1
Time (s) Time (s)
(a) (b)
Fig. 2. Power ripples in steady state (approximately 105 W) (a) P&O MPPT and (b) IC MPPT Based on PI.

and it is negative for right side position of MPP. The measure
advantage of this MPPT is its precession to reach the MPP and its
higher efficiency to deal with the changes of environmental condi-
tions and disturbances. The key benefit of the IC MPPT over the
P&O MPPT is that it can calculate the direction in which it can
change the operating point of the PV generator to take it closer
to the MPP. That is why under fast varying weather it will not take
the wrong direction and in addition, once the MPP has been
reached, the working point does not oscillate around it [29,30].
3. Major characteristic of PV power forecasting
4. Long term (From 1 month to years):
Long term estimation can be applied for long term solar energy
measurement and planning of PV plant.
From point of view of microgrid and smart grid energy manage-
ment also smooth operation of power system, short term and very
short term forecasting horizon are essential and useful for activi-
ties like operation of PV generating station, real time unit commit-
ment, storage control and electricity marketing. Therefore, most of
researchers pay attention in developing an advanced system for
short term PV power forecasting.

The selection of input variables and prediction horizon affects 3.2. Data processing
the accuracy of the developed prediction model. In general, some
significant variables are used as input of forecasting models but In our problem all inputs or attributes and the output or tar-
are not bound to the following factors [31]: get are normalized using Eq. (2), while the input weight and bias
have been obtained into the range [0, 1] so that the training
 Historical data of PV generation; speed can be improved and overflowing of the calculation can
 Historical explanatory variables, which are relevant to the be avoided [33].
meteorological variables, consisting of global horizontal irradi-

Xj  Xmin
ance, temperature, cloud cover, humidity, wind speed, and so on. X ¼ ; 0 6 X 6 1 ð2Þ
Xmax  Xmin
3.1. Forecasting horizons
where Xmax, Xmin are the maximum and minimum value of X data
sequence and X⁄ is normalized value of X.
From the practical point of view, different prediction horizons
will correspond to the specific needs of decision making activities
in the smart grid and microgrid, which are as follows [32]: 3.3. Performance estimation

1. Very short term forecasting (from a few sec to min):
This kind of forecasting is useful for PV storage control and
electricity marketing. Now a day in the smart grid and microgrid
environment, very short term forecasting of PV power has become
more important.
In this paper, different statistical indices like the root mean
square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean abso-
lute percentage error (MAPE) which is an index for trend recogni-
tion of prediction are used for performance evaluation of each soft
computing method. The calculation of the above mentioned
indices are as follows [34]:

1X N
2. Short term (up to 2–3 days ahead): MAE ¼ jy  tj j ð3Þ
N i¼1 j
This forecasting technique is more essential for different deci-
sion making activities involved in the electricity market and power 1X N
jyj  tj j
MAPE ¼  100% ð4Þ
system operation, comprising of economic load dispatch, unit com- N i¼1 yj
mitment, etc.
vffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
u N
u1 X
RMSE ¼ t
3. Medium term (up to 7 days ahead):
ðy  tj Þ2 ð5Þ
N i¼1 j
Medium term forecasting would be useful for scheduling mainte-
nance of PV power generating station, conventional generating sta- where yj and tj are the measured and corresponding predicted value
tion, transformers and transmission lines. of the PV power, and N is the number of test samples. The combina-
 M.K. Behera et al. / Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal 21 (2018) 428–438 431

tion of these statistical indices is sufficient to evaluate model 4.1.1. Learning algorithm of ELM
performance. The general solution of a linear system is represented by AX ¼ Y
where A 2 Rmn and Y 2 Rm
4. Forecasting models In a euclidian space, a SLFN with random weight and hidden
layer, is actually a linear system.
ELM classifier which is also called as optimized ELM consists of For ‘n’ arbitrary samples (Xi, Yi) where xi ¼ ½xi1 ; xi2 ; . . . xm T 2 R
two different units i.e. SLFN based ELM algorithm and various opti- and yi ¼ ½yi1 ; yi2 ; . . . ym T 2 R i.e. Xi ¼ ½xij T 2 R and
mization algorithms which are used in order to adjust the ELM Y i ¼ ½yij  2 R T

parameters. A single layer Feed-forward network is such a type

The general ELM model with ‘k’ hidden nodes with activation
of neural networks that has the capability to approximate an
function h(x) can be modeled as
existing function that relates a set of inputs to the outputs with a
minimized error [35]. X
k
bi hðwi xj þ bi Þ ¼ yj ; j ¼ 1; 2; . . . n ð6Þ
i¼1
4.1. Extreme learning machine (ELM)
where wi ¼ ½wi1 ; wi2 . . . win T , it is input weight vector randomly
ELM is an advanced technique to train the single layer feed for- chosen connected input and ‘ith’ hidden neuron, bi = weight vector
ward network (SLFN) shown in Fig. 3 where the input weights and connected ‘ith’ neuron to output neuron and bi = threshold at ‘ith’
bias are chosen arbitrarily and the output weights are computed hidden neuron.
analytically. For the hidden layer neuron different activation func- The Eq. (6), can be re-formulate in the following matrix form
tions like sigmoid and Gaussian function are used, but for the out-
Gn bn ¼ Yn ð7Þ
put neuron a linear activation function is used. ELM is a fast and
simple algorithm but performs better than the traditional neural where
networks with a smaller input data which flowchart shown in 2 3
Fig. 4 [36]. If the parameters of SLFN are randomly chosen, then hðw1 x1 þ b1 Þ    hðak x1 þ bk Þ
it becomes a linear system in which output weights can be analyt- 6 .. .. 7
Gn ¼ 6
4 .  .
7
5 ð8Þ
ically computed through Moore Penrose generalized inverse of the
hidden layer output matrices. This modified algorithm is known as hðw1 xn þ b1 Þ    hðak xn þ bk Þ nk
the extreme learning machine. The ELM techniques perform high
speed computation as compared to other traditional methods such bn ¼ ½b1 ; b2 ::::::bk  ð9Þ
as gradient descent, back propagation training algorithm etc [37].
The advantages of the ELM are smallest training error, smallest At initial stage of the learning the parameters are selected
norm of weights, excellent performance and extremely fast conver- arbitrarily such that ‘G’ can remain unchanged. To train SLFN net-
gence as compared to other forecasting algorithms [38]. work based on ELM algorithm is same as to calculate a least square
solution b^ of the linear system [39]:

Gn bn ¼ Yn
Input Hidden Output ^  Yn k ¼ Min kGn ðw1 :::wm ; b1 :::bm Þb  Yn k
kGn ðw1 :::wm ; b1 :::bm Þbn n
Layer Layer Layer bn
h(w,b,x) ð10Þ
According to theory of Moor Penrose generalized inverse, the
output weight bn [40]:
x  1
yi ^ ¼ GT Gn
b GTn Yn ð11Þ
n n

4.1.2. Regularized ELM algorithm

To improve further the ability and controllability of ELM, RELM
is proposed in which bn can be replaced by [41,42]:
 
1 2 1
arg Min ¼ arg Min kb k þ lke2 k ð12Þ
bn bn 2 n 2
Fig. 3. Structure of the SLFN model.

X
k

Randomly assign the Set the activation

such that bi hðwi :xj þ bi Þ  yj ¼ ej where j ¼ 1; 2; . . . n ð13Þ
Set hidden layer nodes i¼1
hidden layer weight and function of ELM
of ELM network
bias network
The corresponding Lagrangian function of optimization
problem
Take the training and Compute the output Compute the output
testing dataset weight matrix of SLFN matrix of hidden layer 1 2 l

Lðk; e; bn Þ ¼ kb k þ ke2 k  k Gn b2n  yn  e ð14Þ

2 n 2

Normalize the dataset

Train the SLFN by ELM
algorithm
Test the ELM network k ¼ ½k1 ; k2 ::::::kn  Lagrangian multiplier:
Equating partial derivative for k and b to zero, leads
Evaluation of model
 1
performance
^ ¼ 1
b þ GTn Gn GTn Yn ð15Þ
Fig. 4. Flowchart of ELM.
n
l
432 M.K. Behera et al. / Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal 21 (2018) 428–438

4.1.3. Modified ELM (RFM-ELM) Substituting Eq. (24), online updating data
 
In real time application the forecasting model has to be modi-
biþ1 ¼ Riþ1 R01 0
iþ1 biþ1  gi Y iþ1
T
fied in two situations. 1st online training is highly essential and
ð26Þ
2nd one is, new arriving data contains fresh information which ¼ b0iþ1 þ Riþ1 gTi gi b0iþ1  Yiþ1
should be focused more while the previous data may be discarded
The output weight bi after the training samples are updated can
the data set Di ¼ fðxi ; yi Þji ¼ 1; 2; . . . ng arrives sequentially [43].
be adjusted online with the variation of training sample.
The output vector bi and the hidden matrix Gi are modified
based on regularized fixed-memory extreme learning machine
4.2. Optimization of extreme learning machine
(RFM-ELM) is expressed as
 1
1 The error free parameters can be estimated by the network if
bi ¼ þ GTi Gi GTi Yi ð16Þ
l the quantity of training samples is equal to the number of hidden
neurons. The computation will become tougher for a very large
T
where Gi ¼ ½gTi gTiþ1 gTiþ2 . . . gTiþn1  data as large number of hidden neurons has to be used. Hence
the approximation of parameters is necessary so as to obtain out-
gi ¼ ½hðw1 x1 þ b1 Þ; hðw2 x2 þ b2 Þ::::::hðwk xk þ bk Þ
puts closer to the observed solution with a minimized error. So it is
only needed to find the least square solution which reduces the
Yi ¼ ½yi ; yiþ1 ; ::::yiþn1 T
error in order to train a SLFN with set input weights Wj, bias bj
When a fresh & ample of data, ðxiþn ; yiþn Þ joins in the training and a single hidden layer [44]. The ELM algorithm minimizes this
data, the hidden matrix and the output weight vector are trained error by tuning its parameters using different optimization algo-
by the following equations. rithm like PSO, CRPSO and APSO. The Fig. 5 shows the work flow
h i of optimized ELM of proposed system.
G0Tiþ1 ¼ GTi gTiþn ð17Þ
4.3. Particle swarm optimization (PSO)
 1
1
b0iþ1 ¼ þ G0T
iþ1 Giþ1 G0T
iþ1 Yiþ1 PSO technique is a well known flexible, strong stochastic itera-
l
 1  tive technique which is associated with attractive features in the
1 
¼ þ GTi yTiþ1 þ gTiþn giþn GTi Gi þ gTiþn yiþn ð18Þ implementation. It has an ability of fast converging to get an
l appropriate solution. Furthermore the PSO is capable enough to
take care of a large search space data and non differential objective
where Yiþ1 ¼ ½yi ; yiþ2 ; . . . yiþn T
function [45]. Eberhart et al. developed PSO algorithm to randomly
 1 simulate the traveling of birds flocking or fish schooling. Velocity
1
Let
Ri ¼ þ GTi Gi and position of each particle are modified according to Eqs. (27)
l
 1 ð19Þ and (28), respectively [46].
1  1
R0iþ1 ¼ þ G0T 0
iþ1 Giþ1 ¼ R1
i þ giþn giþ1
T
vkþ1 ¼ w  vki þ g1  rand1  fpbesti ðkÞ  si ðkÞg
l i
þ g2  rand2  fgbesti ðkÞ  si ðkÞg ð27Þ
Eq. (18), can be rewritten as
Vi ¼ Vmax where Vi > Vmax

1  T  where,
b0iþ1 ¼ R0iþ1 þ Giþ1 Yiþ1 ¼ p1 ¼ Vmin where V i < V min
i þ giþ1 giþ1 Hi Hi þ gTiþ1 yiþ1 ð20Þ
T

And Skþ1
i ¼ Ski þ Vkþ1
i ð28Þ
Using Sherman-Morrison matrix inversion theory for Eq. (19), Ri
is rearranged as follows The flowchart of this procedure is shown in Fig. 6. For ELM
parameters optimization the specified steps of PSO is described
Ri gTiþn giþn Ri as follows.
R0iþ1 ¼ Ri  ð21Þ
1 þ giþn Ri gTiþn
 Step1: Data pre-processing:- All the data of dataset are normal-
Substituting Eq. (21) in (20) we obtained ized into the range [0, 1].
b0iþ1 ¼ R0iþ1 GTi yi þ gTiþn yiþn Þ  Step2: The initial velocity of each particle is randomly gener-
ð22Þ ated by assigning the swarm size, maximum no of iterations
¼ bi þ R0iþ1 gTiþn ðyiþn  giþn bi Þ
and velocities.
To eliminate the previous training sample, on the model i.e.  Step3: The particle’s fitness value is calculated according to the
ðxi ; yi Þ the hidden matrix and output weight vector are tuned by testing accuracy of ELM and the best position of the particle is
 set with the maximal fitness in the swarm.
Giþ1 ¼ gTiþ1 gTiþ2 :::gTiþn ð23Þ
Irradiance
 1 PV Power
1 Load
þ GTiþ1 Giþ1 GTiþ1 Yiþ1
Vpv
biþ1 ¼
Vdc
Array Converter
l ð24Þ
Temperature
 
1
¼ þ G1  g T
g ðG0T
iþ1 yi  gi Yiþ1 Þ
T Raw real time

l iþ1 iþ1 i PV deta Forecasted PV

power
Voltage & PWM Maximum
ELM
where Yiþ1 ¼ ½yiþ1 ; yiþ2 ; . . . yiþn T Current Sensing Generator PV power

 1 Random weights
1 and bias of ELM Optimized
Let
Riþ1 ¼ þ GTiþ1 Giþ1 we have weights and bias
l MPPT Algorithm + Duty Optimization to ELM
ð25Þ Cycle Adjustment technique
R0 gT g R0 iþ1
Riþ1 ¼ R0iþ1 þ iþ1 i 0i
1  gi b iþ1 gTi Fig. 5. Block diagram representation of proposed system.
 M.K. Behera et al. / Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal 21 (2018) 428–438
Parameter
initialization
Initialize
population
Fitness calculation
ELM
Testing acc uracy
and positions
Update the
best position
No
Termination
criterion
Yes
Output
Fig. 6. Flow chart of PSO for optimizing ELM.
 Step4: The velocity and position of each particle are updated by
means of Eqs. (27) and (28), for every iteration.
 Step5: The stopping criterion is checked. If the maximum num-
ber of iterations is not yet achieved, then return to step 3.
Otherwise, the next step is followed.
 Step6: Output the best combination of (w, b) of ELM equivalent
to the maximal fitness value.
In order to overcome the drawbacks of classical PSO, craziness
PSO is developed. In classical PSO the birds flocking or fish school-
ing, changes their directions suddenly.
4.4. Craziness particle swarm optimization (CRPSO)
Here a completely new velocity expression is introduced. This
expression is associated with several arbitrary numbers and a
craziness velocity. The velocity expression here is given by
n o
vkþ1 ¼ r2  signðr3 Þ  vki þ ð1  r2 Þ  g1  r1  pbesti  ski
k Vtþ1
i
n o
þ ð1  r2 Þ  g2  ð1  r1 Þ  gbesti  ski
k
where r1 ; r2 and r3 are the random parameter selected whose values
lies in between ½1; 0; signðr3 Þ is defined as


1 r3 6 0:05
signðr3 Þ ¼
1 r3 > 0:05
Two random parameters r1 and r2 are selected independently. If
both the values are large and have special and social experiences
which are also used, then the particle will fly from the local opti-
mum. If both values are small i.e. both social and personal experi-
ences are not used at all or partially used, then the convergence
rate of the optimization technique is reduced. To overcome this
single random number r1 such that r1 is large and ð1  r1 Þ is small
value and vice versa. However another random number r2 is intro-
duced to control the balancing of global and local search. In case of
birds flocking in search of foods, certain rare cases can be observed
after there is certain change in the position of the particle accord-
ing to the Eq. (31) like a bird may not fly to the food source due to
its inertia. On the other hand the bird flies in the opposite direction
433
of the expected promising region. So in the steps that follow the
direction of velocities should be reversed to the promising region.
signðr3 Þ is used for taking care of this issue [47]. In fish schooling
and birds flocking, a fish or a bird changes its direction unexpect-
edly. To take care of this action by a craziness factor, it is modeled
using a technique with the help of a craziness variable. To uphold
the diversity of the particles, it should have pre-defined craziness
probability and to ensure this, craziness operator is introduced in
CRPSO technique. The significance of this is, before updating this
position, the velocity of the particle is crazed by
Update the
velocities Vkþ1
i ¼ Vkþ1
i þ pðr4 Þ  signðr4 Þ  vcraziness
i ð31Þ
where r4 is a random variable that is selected randomly within the
range of [0, 1], vcraziness
i is random variable which is uniformly
selected such that. vcraziness
i 2 ½vmin
i ; vmax
i  the signum function and
probability are defined as


1 r4 6 pcr
pðr4 Þ ¼ ð32Þ
0 r4 > pcr
where pcr is probability craziness


1 r4 P 0:5
signðr4 Þ ¼ ð33Þ
1 r4 < 0:5
Reversal of birds velocity should not occur frequently for which
a small value of r3 ð< 0:05Þ should be chosen. signðr3 Þ ¼ 1 is taken
in reversal direction. Similarly pcr 6 0:3 is selected such that r4 will
have more probability, and finally it becomes more than pcr .In that
case pðr4 Þ will be zero in most of the cases. If not so, then heavy
unnecessary oscillations will be produced at maximum iterations
in the convergence curve. vcraziness is chosen very small (=0.0001).
4.5. Accelerated particle swarm optimization (APSO)
The standard PSO uses both the g⁄ and the personal best Xi : Use
of the personal best is advantageous as it enhances the variety in
the quality solutions; however some randomness is required to
simulate this multiplicity [48]. Subsequently, no forceful reason
is there for using the personal best, unless high nonlinearity is seen
in the optimization problem of interest. Only use of the global best
is the simplified version which could accelerate the convergence of
the algorithm [49]. Thus, in the APSO, simpler formula is used to
generate the velocity vector
i ¼ Vti þ a2n þ b g  Xti ð34Þ
where, 2n is random variable from (0, 1) to replace the second term,
ð29Þ
a; b are acceleration constant, Vtþ1
i is velocity vector, Xti is position
of particle.
The update of the position is simply
Xtþ1
i ¼ Xti þ Vtþ1
i ð35Þ
ð30Þ
The location can also be updated in a single step to increase the
convergence even further
Xtþ1
i ¼ ð1  bÞXti þ bg þ a2n ð36Þ
The same order of convergence will be obtained by this easier
version. Typically, a ¼ 0:1L  0:5L where L is measurement of the
variables, while b ¼ 0:1  0:7 is enough for most of all the imple-
mentations. It is precious to point out that velocity does not appear
in Eq. (36), and dealing with initialization of velocity vectors is not
needed. Therefore, accelerated PSO is very simple. In comparison to
many other PSO variants, accelerated PSO uses only 2 parameters,
and the method can be understood in a simpler way. An advanced
improvement in the APSO is done to reduce the uncertainty as the
iterations proceed [50]. This means that a monotonically decreas-
434 M.K. Behera et al. / Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal 21 (2018) 428–438

ing function can be used such as a ¼ a0 ect ; or a ¼ a0 et ; 120

Ir=1000W/m2 MPP
ð0 < c < 1Þ; where a0 ¼ 0:5  1 is the initial value of the arbitrari- 100 Ir=800W/m2
ness parameter. Here t is the number of iterations or time steps. Ir=600W/m2

Power(Watt)
Ir=400W/m2
0 < c < 1 is a control parameter. For example, in our implementa- 80

tion, we will use a ¼ 0:7t ; wheret 2 ½0; tmax ; and tmax is the maxi- 60
mum of iterations. 40
20
5. Simulation results
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
In this work firstly BP-ANN forecasting technique is compared Voltage(Volt)
with improved ELM result which shows that improved ELM fore-
Fig. 7a. P-V characteristics of PV module for different irradiance and keeping
casting technique performs better than BP-ANN forecasting tech- temperature constant at 25 °C.
nique. To overcome the disadvantages of improved ELM
technique, three methods like PSO-ELM technique, CRPSO-ELM 8
MPP Ir=1000W/m2
technique and the APSO-ELM technique have been studied to per-
Ir=800W/m2
form the short term PV power forecasting process as compared to 6 Ir=600W/m2

Current(Amp)
improved ELM technique. PV power predictions were evaluated in Ir=400W/m2
a case study for an PV ongird generating station installed in roof 4
top of E block of SOA deemed to be university, Bhubaneswar in
Odisha. The measured data were available with 15 min resolution
2
for better study. It is normalized into 30 min and 60 min data for
validation of the process. In this study, we have used 4/5th of the
0
sample datasets which are used as training data and remaining 0 5 10 15 20 25
1/5th data are taken as testing data set. The network is trained Voltage(Volt)
and simulated using MATLAB 10.0. Technical specifications of the
Fig. 7b. I-V characteristics of PV module for different irradiance and keeping
PV module and a detail description of the plants are reported in
temperature constant at 25 °C.
Table 1. Here forecasting of PV power is performed using improve
ELM, PSO-ELM, APSO-ELM and CRPSO-ELM and their results are
compared. 120
Temperature=25 C MPP
Three sets of datas has been taken into consideration for valida- 100 Temperature=30 C
tion purpose. The simulation result is shown below: Temperature=35 C
Power(Watt)

A set of real time PV power data is taken into account to check 80 Temperature=40 C

the performance of the PV power forecasting in the study for differ- 60

ent interval with IC MPPT techniques. The P-V and I-V characteris-
40
tics are shown in Figs. 7(a), 8(a) and Figs. 7(b), 8(b) respectively.
The P-V and I-V characteristics changes according to change in irra- 20
diance and temperature. The information about change in maxi- 0
mum power point and the importance of maximum power point 0 5 10 15 20 25
tracking with high accuracy and efficiency can be obtained from Voltage(Volt)
the PV characteristic curves.
Fig. 8a. P-V characteristics of PV module for different temperature and keeping
Case-1 irradiance constant at 1000 W/m2.
In this study both ELM and BP trained ANN are trained by input
training data and testing data are kept to evaluate the performance
of both the techniques by using three error indices for 3 different 8
MPP
time interval of data. The forecasting result has been depicted as
follow. 6
Current(Amp)

Table 1
4
Specification of PV system and module.
Temperature=25 C
System
2 Temperature=30 C
o
Latitude 20 25 Temperature=35 C
Longitude 85o80 Temperature=40 C
Area of SPV plant 106.25 m2 0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Nominal PV Power 11.2 kW
No. of Modules 40 Voltage(Volt)
No. of Modules in series 20
No. of Modules in parallel 2 Fig. 8b. I-V characteristics of PV module for different temperature and keeping
Module irradiance constant at 1000 W/m2.

PV module type Poly-crystalline

Area with frame 1.256 m2
5.1. Forecasting performance of ELM model compared with BP-ANN
Thickness 40 mm
Maximum power rating 280 W
technique
Rated current 8A
Rated voltage 35 V The forecasting result shown in Fig. 9(a), (b) and (c) that ELM
Shot Circuit Current 8.68 A forecasting output curve is more fitted over actual PV power curve
Open circuit voltage 43 V
than traditional algorithm (BP-ANN) for 3 different intervals of
*At standard test condition (STC). time data which indicates ELM forecasting model performs better
 M.K. Behera et al. / Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal 21 (2018) 428–438 435

0.8
Actual BP-ANN ELM Line BP-ANN ELM

0.6

Forecasted PV power (p.u)

0.6
PV Power (p.u)

0.4
0.4

0.2
0.2

0
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Time sample (15 min)
Actual PV power (p.u)
(a)
(a)
Actual BP-ANN ELM 0.8
Line BP-ANN ELM
0.8

0.6

Forecasted PV power (p.u)

0.6
PV Power (p.u)

0.4
0.4

0.2
0.2

0
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Time sample (30 min)
Actual PV power (p.u)
(b)
1
(b)
Actual BP-ANN ELM
Line BP-ANN ELM
0.8
0.8
Forecasted PV power (p.u)

0.6
PV Power (p.u)

0.6

0.4
0.4

0.2
0.2

0
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Time sample (60 min)
(c) Actual PV power (p.u)
(c)
Fig. 9. Forecasted vs actual PV power for 6 days with different time interval data (a)
15 min, (b) 30 min and (c) 60 min using BP-ANN and ELM. Fig. 10. Correlation plot for different time interval data (a) 15 min, (b) 30 min and
(c) 60 min.

than BP-ANN prediction model. ELM forecasting technique proves

its ability to predict the future value more accurately.
Table 2
Prediction result for ELM compared with BP-ANN.
5.2. Correlation plot of ELM model compared with BP-ANN technique
Time duration ELM BP-ANN

Apparently, the forecasting results of ELM forecasting technique RMSE MAPE (%) MAE RMSE MAPE (%) MAE

performs well with three interval of data and come closer to the 15 min 0.0362 2.9417 0.0294 0.0472 3.62 0.0363
original data series over BP-ANN prediction technique. This can 30 min 0.0510 4.0484 0.0405 0.0607 4.8859 0.0489
60 min 0.0698 5.1780 0.0518 0.0705 5.8977 0.0590
be studied in the correlation plot of forecasted PV power vs actual
PV power, which is demonstrated in Fig. 10(a), (b) and (c) and there Note: The bold value represents the minimum forecasting error among different
error indices have been given in Table 2. Particularly the dashed forecasting model.

straight line shown in the correlation plot specifies that the fore-
casted PV power is identical/equal to the actual PV power; that
is, the farther the points are from the dashed line, it will introduce
a huge prediction error into the forecasting model. For ELM fore-
casting model most points are found nearer to the dashed line
for all three time interval of data, especially for the 15 min data.
This shows that the ELM forecasting model performs well to
address short term PV power forecasting over traditional forecast-
ing technique (BP-ANN).
Case-2
ELM randomly assigns bias and weight, but some demerits of
ELM are in-proper choosing of bias and weight because sometimes
it converges to local optima also and to avoid these problems and
to enhance its performance we impose different optimization tech-
niques here to optimize its bias and weight. In this study PSO-ELM,
CRPSO-ELM and APSO-ELM model forecasting performance was
compared with ELM for 3 different time interval data the forecast-
ing result was depicted follow.
5.3. Comparison of forecasting performance optimize ELM with simple
ELM
The forecasting result shown in Fig. 11(a), (b) and (c) depicts
that APSO-ELM forecasting technique outperform than other 3
436 M.K. Behera et al. / Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal 21 (2018) 428–438

Actual ELM PSO-ELM CRPSO-ELM APSO-ELM 10

ELM PSO-ELM CRPSO-ELM APSO-ELM
0.8

5
0.6
PV Power (p.u)

%Error
0.4 0

0.2
-5

0
0 50 100 150 200 250
-10
Time sample (15 min) 0 50 100 150 200 250
(a) Time sample (15 min)
1
Actual ELM PSO-ELM CRPSO-ELM APSO-ELM (a)
15
ELM PSO-ELM CRPSO-ELM APSO-ELM
0.8
10
PV Power (p.u)

0.6
5

% Error
0.4 0

0.2 -5

0 -10
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Time sample (30 min)
-15
(b) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
1 Time sample (30 min)
Actual ELM PSO-ELM CRPSO-ELM APSO-ELM
(b)
0.8 ELM PSO-ELM CRPSO-ELM APSO-ELM
20
PV Power (p.u)

0.6

10
0.4
% Error

0
0.2

0 -10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Time sample (60 min)
(c) -20
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Time sample (60 min)
Fig. 11. Forecasted vs actual PV power for 6 days with different time interval data
(a) 15 min, (b) 30 min and (c) 60 min using ELM, PSO-ELM, CRPSO-ELM and APSO-
(c)
ELM.
Fig. 12. Error curves of different PSO optimized ELM with different time interval
data (a) 15 min, (b) 30 min and (c) 60 min.

forecasting (ELM, PSO-ELM and CRPSO-ELM) technique for 3 differ-

ent time interval of PV data. Table 3
Comparative forecasting result for optimized ELM compared with ELM.

5.4. Forecasting error curves Forecasting technique Time duration MAPE (%) MAE RMSE
ELM 15 min 2.9417 0.0294 0.0362
The error curve for a short term forecasting of the PV power 30 min 4.0484 0.0405 0.0510
60 min 5.1780 0.0518 0.0698
model using ELM technique based on different particle swarm
PSO-ELM 15 min 2.7736 0.0277 0.0360
optimization technique are shown in the Fig. 12. It is observed that 30 min 3.8339 0.0383 0.0450
the APSO based extreme learning machine forecasting output 60 min 4.7278 0.0473 0.0572
curve fluctuates less over zero error axis than other 3 forecasting CRPSO-ELM 15 min 2.2207 0.0222 0.0295
30 min 3.4669 0.0347 0.0435
technique (ELM, PSO-ELM and CRPSO-ELM) for 3 different time
60 min 4.4723 0.0447 0.0541
interval data. APSO-ELM 15 min 1.4440 0.0144 0.0178
The Fig. 11 show the forecasted PV power for 6 days ahead. The 30 min 3.0622 0.0306 0.0365
estimated errors which are generated from this prediction for IC- 60 min 4.1889 0.0419 0.0534
MPPT with different optimized ELMs are shown in Table 3. From Note: The bold value represents the minimum forecasting error among different
Table 3, it is depicted that the APSO optimization technique with forecasting model.
the ELM forecasting model has better forecasting performance
than the other three forecasting models for three different intervals
of PV power data that is 15 min, 30 min and 60 min. respectively. The MAPE of PSO-ELM with INC MPPT model from
For example, the MAPE of the simple ELM with INC MPPT tech- 15 min data to 60 min data is 2.77%, 3.83% and 4.72%, respectively.
nique from 15 min data to 60 min data is 2.94%, 4.04% and 5.17%, The MAPE of CRPSO-ELM with IC MPPT model from 15 min data to
 M.K. Behera et al. / Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal 21 (2018) 428–438
60 min data is 2.22%, 3.46% and 4.47%, respectively. The MAPE of
the APSO-ELM with IC MPPT model from 15 min data to 60 min
data is 1.44%, 3.06% and 4.18%, respectively. There is an essential
aspect of forecasting error which results in an intelligent model
which has closer forecasting performance. While comparing all
the three hybrid ELM models that are PSO-ELM, CRPSO-ELM and
APSO-ELM, the hybrid models APSO-ELM have better forecasting
performance than the other two. This shows that it is reasonable
to adapt the optimized ELM to reduce the forecasting error of the
ELM model, and the proposed optimized ELM hybrid models have
better satisfactory forecasting performance.
6. Conclusion
Accurate PV generation forecasting strongly depends on study
of system behavior that plays a major role in the operational man-
agement of power grids. A methodology for optimal design of fore-
casting model based on optimized ELM of a PV system has been
successfully developed using different particle swarm optimization
(PSO) methods in a purpose to enhance the accuracy of forecasting.
The prediction system has been divided into multiple sub cate-
gories according to data of different time intervals. Based on the
results of the above experimental study, it can be concluded as below:
 In comparison to the classical algorithms BP-ANN, the ELM
algorithm shows better generalized forecasting performance.
 By the application of the optimization algorithms [PSO], the
proposed hybrid models [PSO-ELM, CRPSO-ELM, APSO-ELM]
so far can boost ELM’s prediction performance. The application
of various optimization algorithms is to obtain small general-
ized weight and bias so that the built in ELM model can realize
better forecasting accuracy with less error.
 Among the entire proposed hybrid model, the APSO-ELM model
shows better forecasting performance in the short term solar
power forecasting than the other three techniques. APSO algo-
rithm optimizes the random weights of ELM very quickly with
more accuracy.
Thus, the proposed optimization model that is based on combi-
nation of PSO and ELM of single layer feed forward neural network
effectively improves the accuracy of prediction of the forecasting
system. While the time interval changes, the invalidity issues of
the forecasting system can also be solved by the proposed model.
This can be done by maintaining the consistency of the daily fore-
casting accuracy within the limit that fulfills the necessity of
scheduling and economic operations of the power grid. And of
course, when two complicated algorithms will be relatively com-
bined, then that will increase the computation complexities of
the proposed forecasting model. As a future work, we plan to study
on the possibilities of reduction in the computation complexities
and improve the accuracy of prediction by accumulating more
data.
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