Set A

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY – BANGLADESH (AIUB)

Faculty of Business Administration
Department of Operations and Supply Chain Management
EMBA Program
E-6303: Analytical Techniques for Decisions Making (Section A)
Final-Term Assessment Spring 2019 - 2020
Total Marks: 50
Faculty: Dr. Ramit Azad
Time: 1 hours

Answer any five of the following questions:

1. Constructing a frequency distribution table taking 45 observations. 10

2. Take your data and construct a bar graph and a pie graph. 10
3. Present some mathematical and statistical statement on Covid-19 Bangladesh. 10
4. Collect a paper on any business research in Bangladesh and explain the uses of mathematics
and statistics in that paper. 10
5. Write how this course has enhanced your views and what you have Learned from this course
(state at least ten points). 10
6. Write about the application of statistics in national development with one example. 10
7. Show the use of measures of central tendency in business with example. 10
8. Write about the power of mathematics and consciousness of calculation in national life. 10
Name: Mostafa Aminul Hassan
ID: 20-91676-1
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3. Present some mathematical and statistical statement on Covid-19 Bangladesh.
Answer of the Question number: 3
In the last two decades the world had faced three respiratory syndrome outbreaks incurred by Coronavirus.
Though the wild animals are the primary carriers of the virus, the human population managed to survive
sacrificing more than 16,000 lives from 2002 to 2012. But the current virus outbreak has already taken more
than 0.3 million lives since today. In the first few days, when the cases were being introduced under light,
there were no treatment for the infection and the unleashed spread demands to be analyzed to see the
pattern of the outbreak. This manuscript aims to look into the growth map of the COVID-19 outbreak under
mathematical growth functions and tries to understand which growth pattern assembles the scenario for the
cases.

The virus has already killed more than 200,000 people and infected more than 2.9 million in 210 countries
across the world. What will happen finally is beyond anyone's apprehension. In fact, there are mixed signals
about the behaviour of the virus. The rates of both infection and death in some severely affected countries
have slowed down after reaching their peaks. Expectation is that the trend will continue. These countries are
now planning to reopen their economies gradually amidst the WHO warning that any rash decision could lead
to a resurgence of the disease.

Where does Bangladesh stand in such an uncertain situation?

Actually, it is hard to make an assessment under the given circumstances. Compared to the rates of infection
and fatality in European and North American countries, Bangladesh and other South Asian countries are in a
better position.
A few statistics would support this fact. Eight South Asian countries have an aggregate population of 1.82
billion. The number of Covid-19 patients in these countries is around 42,000. Europe has a population of 750
million and the number of corona-infected people is more than 1.2 million. Similarly, North America has a
population of 370 million and the number of people infected there is estimated to be nearly 1.0 million.

But the scenario of Bangladesh is pretty different than the developed & leading countries of the world. Between 8 March and
11 May 2020, according to the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) there were fifteen-thousand-
six-hundred-nighty-one (15,691) COVID-191 confirmed by rt-PCR, including two-hundred- thirty-eight (238) related
death cases (CFR 1.52%). Two-thousand-nine-hundred-nifty-two (2,902) or 18% of all reported cases
recovered. Sixty-eight (68) percent of all confirmed cases were males.
Since 4 April 2020 to date, the overall COVID-19 attack rate (the total number of cases divided by the total population) in
Bangladesh2 has been showing a steady increase. On 11 May, Bangladesh attack rate (AR) is 92.1 per 1 million.
The highest AR was observed in Dhaka division (527.0/1,000,000). Within Dhaka division, Dhaka city has the highest
AR (874.9/1,000,000), followed by Narayanganj (356.6/1,000,000), Munshiganj (126.4/1,000,000), Gazipur
(84.0/1,000,000) and Narshingdi (65.4/1000,000).
The second highest COVID-19 Attack Rate was reported from Mymensingh division (34.8/1,000,000). Within
Mymensingh division, Jamalpur district city has the highest AR (40.6/1,000,000), followed by Mymensingh district
(38.6/1,000,000), Netrokona district (26.6/1,000,000) and Sherpur District (24.3/1,000,000).
A rise in Chattogram division is visible since 06 May 2020 at AR of 23.3/1,000,000. Within the division, Cox’s Bazar district
reported highest AR (35.1/1,000,000) followed by Chaootgram (29.5/1,000,000), Lakshmipur (28.9/1,000,000), Cumilla
(28.6/1,000,000) and Chandpur (19.6/1,000,000).
Barisal division reported overall AR of (14.8/1,000,000) with the highest AR in Barguna district at (35.1/1,000,000).
Although Attack Rate for Rajsahi division is relatively low at 07.5/1,000,00, the AR for Joypurhat district is as high as
38.9.3/1,000,000.
To date, 100% (64/64) of districts and cities with the total population of 170,306,468 people have confirmed COVID-19 cases.
The latest district reporting its first COVID-19 cases was Rangamati district in Chattogram division on 06 May 2020.
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6. Write about the application of statistics in national development with one example.
Answer of the question no: 6
Reliable statistics describe the reality of people’s everyday lives. The role of statistics in national
development is very critical. The importance and availability of timely and reliable statistics on socio-
economic life of a sovereign nation cannot be over-stressed. For instance, a number of goals have become
generally accepted as the objective of economic policy and development. Movement towards their
attainment is deemed to lead to macroeconomic stability and increased national welfare.

Statistics is believed to have been practiced from the beginning of mankind. This definitely doesn’t come as a
surprise to many. As early as the 3rd or 4th millennium BC India is believed to have possessed a developed
civilization with the Harappa and Mohenjo-Daro civilizations. These civilizations boasts of well built houses,
temples made of bricks and highly populated cities. Later in the 2000 BC, the arrival of the Aryans saw
advancements in agriculture and irrigation. This type of rapid growth also necessitated studies to be
conducted on the growing population. In the early days Kautilya’s Arthashastra prescribed the collection of
population statistics as a measure of state policy for the purpose of taxation. During the time of Akbar the
Great, the administration report known as the Ain-i-Akbari included data pertaining to population, industry,
wealth, and many other characteristics. It is these very studies that took into shape of the present days
Census, a periodic enumeration of a population, often including the collection of related demographic
information. Census finds a mention in the Biblical recordings at the time of Moses. The field of Operations
Research originated as a result of planning during World War II. Later, these techniques found popularity in
the context of business, industry and society.
Timely, complete, accurate and reliable statistics is critical for creating and sustaining an environment
which fosters strong, equitable development. Also, this is an essential ingredient for formulation of sound
economic development policies, by which the decision making and development plans of the government
becomes concentric. From the United Nations view point, statistics is a pathfinder for solution as well as a
veritable tool in assessing the extent or level of national development of a country in a given period.

The national economic policies and complex interactions among various sectors of the economy make it
imperative for building up macroeconomic planning models. This kind of model build-up is only possible with
availability of timely and reliable statistical information. Thus, statistics plays a vital role to attain national
development goals based on the availability of timely and reliable statistical indices such as GDP, inflation
rate, poverty headcount, income per capita, labor force, housing, schooling, health outcomes, etc.

Further, timely, accurate and reliable statistics are widely used for the design and implementation stages of
country policy frameworks. It is increasingly important to have high quality statistics on the population and
projections of the population, for policy development and for planning and providing public services. This
information is used for: central and local finance allocation; housing and land use planning; health care
planning; providing education facilities; benchmarking other projections and as a control for smaller area
projections; looking at the implications of an ageing population and making national and international
comparisons, etc.

For instance, preparation of central and provincial government budgets mainly depends upon statistics
because it helps in estimating the expected expenditures and revenue from different sources. And good
statistics are essential to manage the effective delivery of basic services. Good statistics also improve the
transparency and accountability of policy making, both of which are essential for good governance, by
enabling people to judge the success of government policies and to hold their government to account for
those policies. For example, if government plans to introduce a universal pension plan, statistical methods
will be used to determine the forecasted cost for planned pension scheme with using population projections
and inflation data. Hence, statistics are the eyes of administration of the state. Also, good statistics help
donors by informing aid allocation decisions and by monitoring the use of aid and development outcomes.
The Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness recognises the need for better statistics for more effective aid.

Monitoring is a continuous process that requires data which is generated to assist in establishing whether
planned targets are likely to be achieved or not. This is another area where statistics plays an important
role. In monitoring and evaluation of ongoing economic reform programmes, statistical data is vital, as it will
provide the necessary information on performance indicators which serve to measure the impact of policy
and programmes on the quality of life of target populations. Thus, statistics on these issues serves as
monitoring indicators which are vital for development plans.

Most low-income countries are developing national policy frameworks such as poverty reduction strategies
as part of their policy processes to reduce poverty. These policy frameworks highlight the need for statistics
to provide a strong foundation for the diagnosis of poverty – where the poor are, why they are poor and what
their lives are like – as well as to monitor the effectiveness of policy implementation. This information
provides the evidence required to develop and monitor effective development policies. It highlights where
resources are most needed, and provides the means to track progress and assess the impact of different
policies. Hence, statistics are needed to help drive the outcomes that the policies are aiming at.

For instance, as part of a long-term commitment to reduce poverty in Sri Lanka, in 2005, the World Bank
collaborated with the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) to conduct the country’s first official
poverty mapping exercise to measure poverty incidence at the Divisional Secretariat level. Using data from
the 2001 Census of Population and Housing and the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2002,
this exercise revealed considerable spatial heterogeneity in poverty and identified areas where poverty
remained more prevalent. The poverty headcount ratio in Colombo, the country’s capital and the least poor
district, was estimated to be 6%, while the corresponding ratio in both Badulla and Moneragala, the two
poorer districts, was 37% each. Many pockets of high poverty existed even in affluent districts, including
Colombo.

The poverty map for 2002 has proved to be a powerful tool in measuring and comparing poverty at
disaggregated administrative levels. One of the most important applications of this map was to inform policy
makers during the reform of the Samurdhi transfer programme in 2005, when the Ministry of Samurdhi used
the map to identify the poorest 119 DS divisions in the country. The widespread acceptance and use of the
map, which gave poverty-related estimates at the Divisional Secretariat (DS) division level, is a testament to
DCS’s success in disseminating the results of the poverty mapping exercise throughout the government
agencies as well as to the general public. The DCS has created a new poverty map using Census of
Population and Housing-2012 and the Household Income and Expenditure Survey-2012/13. This new poverty
map, can inform policy makers whether previous pockets of poverty have persisted and whether new
pockets have emerged, which could be used to strengthen the poverty alleviation exercise in the country.

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1. Constructing a frequency distribution table taking 45 observations.

Answer of the Question no: 1

In a garments, the MEAL officer looked at the daily production number for last 45 days and the data looks
like this from day 1 to day 45:

55 69 78
57 68 79
50 73 80
57 70 83
51 75 84
57 74 87
56 76 90
60 76 90
60 76 91
64 77 93
 65 78 95
59 78 101
60 78 102
72 79 99
70 81 98

Highest Value 102

Lowest Value 50
N 45

K = 1+3.31LogN

= 1+3.31Log45

= 6.47

C = (HV-LV)/K

= (102 – 50)/6.47
= 8.03

= Approx 8

So the frequency distribution table is -

Class Frequency
50-58 7
59-67 6
68-76 11
77-85 11
86-94 5
95-103 5
N 45

2. Take your data and construct a bar graph and a pie graph.
Answer of the question no: 2

Using the data from the answer of the question number 1, a bar graph and a pie chart is presented below.
i) Bar Graph

Bar Graph
12
10 11 11
8
6 7
6
4 5 5
2
0
50-58 59-67 68-76 77-85 86-94 95-103

ii) Pie Chart

Pie Chart
50-58
5 7
59-67
5
6 68-76
77-85
11
86-94
11
95-103

7. Show the use of measures of central tendency in business with example.

Answer of the Question no: 7

Measures of Central Tendency helps in identifying the single value around which all the data in a group
(observations) have a tendency to cluster. Simply, a measure of central tendency is the value considered as
the most representative figure of the entire data set.

A measure of central tendency helps in identifying the center of all the observations and therefore is also
called as Statistical Averages or Averages or Measures of Central Location. The central tendency helps in
condensing the large data into a single value that represents the entire data set. Thus, central tendency is
very useful when the data under study is very large.
 A measure of central tendency also helps in comparing one data set with another. Such as if there are two
samples of girls studying in two different schools and their marks in class 12 th are needed to be
compared. Then by calculating the average marks for each sample an easy comparison between the girls
can be drawn.

Also, the central tendency helps in comparing one value of data with the entire data set. For example, if a
boy obtained 50% marks in science can compare with the average marks obtained by each student to find
out where he stands in class.

Basically, there are three important measures of central tendency:

1. Mean: The mean is the most common measure of central tendency. It is the value obtained by dividing the
sum of all the observations by the number of observations in the dataset. Symbolically:

2. Median: The median is a positional average, basically used in the context of qualitative data, such as
intelligence, etc. It divides the data into two equal parts where half of the items are less than the median
while the half of the part is greater than the median. Therefore, the data set is first arranged in either the
ascending order or the descending order. Such as, if the number of observations in the dataset:

a) ‘n’ is odd:

b) ‘n’ is even:

3. Mode: In a data set, the most frequently occurring item or observation is mode. For example, a manufacturer
of cloth wants to know the size which most frequently ordered by the customers so that he can manufacture
a large quantity of that size.

Thus, these are the measures of central tendency used to find out the most representative value of the
dataset.

So, if we use the data table from the question no: 1,

57 68 79
55 69 78
57 70 83
 50 73 80
57 74 87
51 75 84
56 76 90
60 76 90
60 76 91
64 77 93
59 78 101
60 78 102
65 78 95
72 79 99
70 81 98

Mean will be, the summation of the numbers are 3371

The total number of the items are 45

So the Mean is 3371/45 = 74.9

Med will be, as the total number of the items is 45, so (45+1)/2 = 23rd number would be the Median. Here if we
sort the numbers in ascending order,

50
51
55
56
57
57
57
59
60
60
60
64
65
68
69
70
72
73
74
75
 76
76
76
77
78
78
78
78
79
79
80
83
84
87
90
90
91
93
95
98
99
101
102
So the Median number is 76.

Mode of this data set is 78, as 78 appeared four times in this set.

So, here Mean – 74.9

Med – 76

Mode - 78

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