Day 12 PDF

Current Affairs
Thursday, January 28, 2016 1

Day 12
Sequence
 Pakistan's External Affairs
 Pakistan’s relations with its Neighbors (India, China,
Afghanistan, Russia)
 Pakistan’s relations with the Muslim World (Iran, Saudi
Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey)
 Pakistan’s relations with the United States
 Pakistan’s relations with Regional and International
Organizations (UN, SAARC, ECO, OIC, WTO, CW)
Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 3

Revised Syllabus 2016
 I. Pakistan's Domestic Affairs (20 marks)
i. Political
ii. Economic
iii. Social
 II. Pakistan's External Affairs (40 marks)
i. Pakistan’s relations with its Neighbors (India, China,
Afghanistan, Russia)
ii. Pakistan’s relations with the Muslim World (Iran, Saudi
Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey)
iii. Pakistan’s relations with the United States
iv. Pakistan’s relations with Regional and International
Organizations (UN, SAARC, ECO, OIC, WTO, CW)
Revised Syllabus 2016
 III. Global Issues (40 marks)
i. International Security
ii. International Political Economy
iii. Human Rights
iv. Environment: Global Warming, Kyoto Protocol, Copenhagen Accord
v. Population: world population trends, world population policies
vi. Terrorism and Counter Terrorism
vii. Global Energy Politics
viii. Nuclear Proliferation and Nuclear Security
ix. Nuclear Politics in South Asia
x. International Trade (Doha Development Round and Bali Package)
xi. Cooperation and Competition in Arabian Sea, Indian and Pacific
Oceans.
xii. Millennium Development Goals, Current Status,
xiii. Globalization
xiv. Middle East Crisis
xv. Kashmir Issue
xvi. Palestine Issue
Zulfiqar General
History
Bhutto’s Era Zia’s Era
Unstable Musharraf’s
Democratic
Era and
Governments
Post 9/11

Introduction
 The foreign policy of Pakistan aims to:
i. Develop friendly relations.
ii. Safeguard vital security.
iii. Resolve core issues.
iv. Portray a strong image.
v. Augment economic and commercial interests.
vi. Protect interests of Pakistanis abroad

Initial Period 1947-1958
 US established diplomatic relations with Pakistan on
October 20, 1947.
 These relations developed against the backdrop of the
Cold War and since then this relationship has been based
on economic and military assistance.
 Pakistan's relations with the US improved in early 1950s’
when President Eisenhower came to power
 1953- Food Crisis Aid
 In 1954, Pakistan signed a Mutual Defense Agreement
with the US and subsequently became member of SEATO
and CENTO.
 These treaties put Pakistan under US influence and thus
Pakistan was used as a base for military reconnaissance
flights over Soviet territory.
Initial Period 1947-1958
 Pakistan’s first prime minister, Liaquat Ali Khan visited
United States to meet president Harry Truman.
 Establishment of a Military Assistance Advisory Group
(MAAG) in Rawalpindi.
 In 1956, President Dwight Eisenhower requested prime
minister Suhrawardy to lease Peshawar Air Station to the
American Army for keeping an eye on soviet Union and its
ballistic missile program.

South East Asian Treaty Organization
 Pakistan joined SEATO on September’ 8, 1954
 Members:
 Australia, France, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines,
Thailand, United Kingdom and the United States.
 Purpose:
 Establish a collective security arrangement for Southeast Asia.
 Enhance trade relationships.
 Reasons for its failure:

 Lack to willingness to resolve issues.
 Ultimate inability of the other SEATO nations to act militarily.
Ayub’s Era 1958-1969
 Beginning of a cozy relationship with the US.
 1954-Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement
 First military assistance from the US
 ‘exclusively to maintain our internal security...and legitimate
self-defense’
 During the decade of 60s, the pro-American sentiments in
Western side of Pakistan were at an all time high.
 Ayub Khan allowed United States to fly spy mission to
Soviet Union from Pakistan’s territory.
 United States increased the amount of aid to Pakistan half
a billion dollars of which were lost in 1965’s Indo-Pakistan
war.
Central Treaty Organization
 Members:
 Iran, Iraq, Turkey and United Kingdom.
 Purpose:
 U.S. pressure and promises of military and economic aid were
key in the negotiations leading to the agreement.
 Counter the threat of Soviet expansion in Middle East oil
producing countries.
 Reasons for failure:

 Did not intervene in the Arab-Israeli Conflict.
 Was unable to prevent Soviet expansion in member states
(Egypt, Syria, Iran,
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etc)
Current Affairs 15
 Pakistan as a strategic partner in completing the ring of
containment around Soviet Union.
 Significance of SEATO and CENTO
 Military aid increased to $500 million by 1957
 Further strengthening of US-Pak relationship
 Became United States' "most-allied ally" in Asia.

 U2 Crisis of 1960
i. July 1957 - U.S. requested permission from Pakistan for the
establishment of a secret U.S. intelligence facility in Pakistan
ii. Location: Badaber, 10 miles from Peshawar
iii. April 9, 1960 - U-2 spy plane of the special CIA unit crossed the
national boundary of the Soviet Union and flew over four Soviet
top secret military objects but was detected by the Soviet Air
Defence Forces.
iv. Pakistan became a ‘wholehearted ally’ which undertook ‘real
responsibilities and risks’ by providing facilities ‘highly
important to US national security’.
v. Compromise on Pakistan's security and worsened relations with
the Soviet Union
vi. Soviet Union threatened the nuclear annihilation of Pakistani
cities.
 Indus Water Treaty in 1960 and half a billion in US funds.
 Pakistan’s growing friendship with communist China after

the 1962 Sino-Indian war irked the U.S
 The 1965 Indo-Pakistani War

 embargo on arms shipments to Pakistan and India
 The ban remained in place during the Indo-Pakistani War of
1971.

Pakistan-U.S Relations During 1969 and
1971
 Army Chief General Yahya took over power from President Ayub
Khan in March 1969. The country had been in a pseudo military
rule since 1958.
 Political representation had been insufficient and regional

succession movements were strengthening in the country
especially in the eastern Pakistan province of Bengal.
 Elections were held in the country in 1970 with the East

Pakistani party Awami League taking a majority in the elections.

1971
 The military government did not hand over power to the
winning party and in a political deadlock, unleashed a
crackdown against the East Pakistan population.
 This led to a limited civil war in 1971 and India siding with the
dissidents launched a war in December 1971. After a fortnight of
fighting, the Pakistani forces in East Pakistan accepted defeat
and the state of Bangladesh was established.
 During the war between Pakistan and India . The US policy in
this debacle was aligned with the military establishment of
Pakistan due to its earlier links and defense relationships.
1971
 President Nixon used the Pakistani links with China to start a
secret diplomacy with China which culminated with Henry
Kessinger’s secret visit to China in July 1971 while he was visiting
Pakistan.
 The Chinese relationship was vital for the US as it was trying to

fix the mess in its Vietnam policy.
 With these concerns, the US administration neglected the

internal domestic issues of Pakistan and allowed the dictator to
have its way in East Pakistan.
1971
 Rather than focusing on their domestic problems and working effectively to
find solutions, the military rulers in Pakistan had been focusing in
international affairs and the Great Game and considered the close
relationship with the US as a guarantee for their own domestic survival.
 America supported Pakistan throughout the 1971 war and supplied weapons
to West Pakistan although Congress had passed a bill suspending exporting
weapons to both Pakistan and India.
 Near the end of the war and fearing Pakistan's defeat by the joint forces of
Mukti Bahini and Indian forces, Nixon ordered the USS Enterprise into the
Indian Ocean, although it was never used for actual combat fearing Russian
response. Pakistan also felt the US arms embargo affected Pakistan more than
it affected India.
1971
 United States-Pakistani relations preceding the 1971 war were
characterized by poor communication and much confusion.
 The administration of President Richard M. Nixon was forced to

formulate a public stance on the brutal crackdown on East
Pakistanis by West Pakistani troops that began in March 25,
1971.
 It maintained that the crackdown was essentially an internal

affair of Pakistan in which direct intervention of outside powers
was to be avoided.
1971
 The Nixon administration expressed its concern about human
rights violations to Pakistan and restricted the flow of
assistance.
 Despite the United States widely publicized “Strategic Tilt"
toward Pakistan during the 1971 war, Pakistan's new leader,
Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, felt betrayed.
 In his opinion, the United States could have prevented India
from intervening in Pakistan's civil war, thereby saving his
country the trauma of defeat and dismemberment. Bhutto now
strove to lessen Pakistan's dependence on the United States.
1971
 The signing of the India-Soviet Union Treaty of Peace,
Friendship, and Cooperation in August 1971, while not a mutual
security treaty, was viewed in Washington as a blank check to
India in its confrontation with Pakistan. President Nixon
warned Soviet officials not to encourage India and informed
India that if it started a war with Pakistan, the United States
would cut off aid.
 On November 22 1971, India launched an offensive against East
Pakistan. The Nixon Administration cut off economic aid to
India, and Nixon himself decided to "tilt" toward Pakistan.
1971
 This pro-Pakistan policy included support of Pakistan in the
United Nations and pressure on the Soviets to discourage India,
with accompanying hints that U.S.-Soviet détente would be in
jeopardy if Moscow did not comply.
 When Nixon learned that Indian war plans were designed to

liberate "Bangladesh" and southern Kashmir, and to destroy
Pakistan’s military armored and air strength, he ordered the U.S.
carrier Enterprise and its escorts into the Bay of Bengal.

1971
 At the President’s instruction, Kissinger met with People's
Republic of China Ambassador to the United Nations Huang
Hua to brief him on the crisis and U.S. actions, and to suggest
that China make military moves in support of Pakistan.

Bhutto’s Presidency (1971-1977)
 After 1971 war Pakistan once again realized that US can
support India against China but can’t support Pakistan
against India.
 Pakistan now strove to lessen her dependence on the United
States.
 Pakistan withdrew from Southeast Asia Treaty organization
(SEATO) in 1972.
 Pakistan reluctantly sustained the country’s role in the
Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) but later on cut ties
with CENTO too.

Bhutto’s Presidency (1971-1977)
 Bhutto re-evaluated the nature of Pak-US relations.
 Indo-Soviet Treaty of 1971, China-US rapprochement and the
Pakistan military’s need for the US equipment forced him to call
for a continued alliance with USA.
 In 1976, Pakistan ran in trouble with the US over the issue of
acquisition of a nuclear processing plant.
 After Pakistan’s nuclear deal with France, the relations between
the Bhutto regime and the US deteriorated and military aid from
USA was again suspended.
 President Jimmy Carter announced to seek a ban on nuclear
weapons.
 President Carter and his administration allegedly threatened
Bhutto to disrupt the process of atomic proliferation and research.
Zia’s Era 1979-1988
 General Zia seized power in Pakistan in a 1977 coup. US
opposed this dictatorship and stopped all economic and
military aid to Pakistan as a result.
 Also US aid was suspended because of Pakistan’s secret

construction of a uranium enrichment facility.
 However after Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in Dec 1979,

Pakistan became a frontline state against Soviet
expansionism.
 Now Pakistan had to fight a proxy war for the US.

Zia’s Era 1979-1988
 An offer to Pakistan of $400 million in economic and
security aid by the Carter Administration in early 1980 was
turned down by President Zia-ul Haq as “Peanuts.”
 In September 1981 Reagan Administration negotiated a $3.2

billion, 5-year economic and military aid package with
Pakistan – Pakistan’s superior negotiation !
 Congress added Section 620E to the FAA, giving the

President authority to waive Section 669 for Pakistan on
grounds of national interest.
Zia’s Era 1979-1988
 Pakistan became a funnel for arms supplies to the Afghan
resistance, as well as a camp for three million Afghan refugees.
 In 1981, the Reagan Administration sent the first of 40 F-16 jet

fighters to the Pakistanis.
 Nov 1982: the latest radar systems for Pakistan’s F-16 fighter
planes transferred to Pakistan by President Wilson.
 Wilson negotiated a major weapons deal with Pakistan to

support the Afghan war. The deal included delivery of T-55 tanks.

Zia’s Era 1979-1988
 Between 1977 and 1986, the country experienced an average
annual growth in the GNP of 6.8%, one of the highest in the
world at that time.
 1981 - $3.2 billion, 5-year economic and military aid package with
Pakistan.
 A $4 billion, 6-year aid package for Pakistan was signed in 1986.
 October 1990, under the provisions of the Pressler amendment,
President Bush suspended most economic and all military aid to
Pakistan as well as deliveries of major military equipment
suspended.
 One major loss was the non delivery of some 71 F-16 fighter
aircraft ordered in 1989.
 Narcotics assistance of $3-5 million annually was exempted from
the aid cutoff.
Zia’s Era 1979-1988
 October 1980: Former President Nixon Indicated Pakistan’s
Nuclear Weapons Program may continue.
 The way forward … Zia began a series of “highly secretive
meetings to explore trading its nuclear technology to other
countries.”
 The urgency of this project was felt as the Soviet Union decided
to end the Afghan war in 1986 and Pakistan realized US aid was
finite.

December 1988 to August 1990
October 1993 to November 1996
Major events
 Increase in Islamic fundamentalism
 Intensification of Kashmir proxy war.
 Taliban’s creation

Policies
 Pak-US relations remained on a mixed note during her
tenures.
 Wanted friendly mujahidin regime in Afghanistan.
 Initiated a program designed to make Pakistan a central
member of both the Islamic bloc and the Trans-Asian axis.
 Pakistan emerged with distinct roles such as center for
finance, military and technology among the Muslim
countries.

Dec.1988- Aug.1990
 Benazir Bhutto had to pay back billions of dollars in loans
made to Zia-ul-Haq.
 Pakistan faced heightened tensions with India over Kashmir
and problems associated with the unresolved Afghan war on
the international front.
 U.S. aid and most arms sales to Pakistan were suspended
when President Bush could not certify to Congress, that
Pakistan does not possess a nuclear explosive device.
 In 1990, the US, under Section 620E(e) of the Foreign
Assistance Act (FAA), the so-called "Pressler amendment",
imposed sanctions on Pakistan, as the country by then had
lost its strategic importance in soviet war
Oct. 1993- Nov. 1996
 The free and peaceful elections of October 1993, were welcomed
by the US.
 In 1992 US relaxed sanctions on Pakistan to allow food and
economic assistance to NGOs.
 However US continued to be concerned about reported terrorist
activity, regional dissidence, and human rights abuse.
 1995, Benazir Bhutto visited United States and requested
president Bill Clinton to lift the embargoes on Pakistan and
launch a joint operation to eradicate militancy from the region.
 The United States strongly supported Pakistan's economic
reform efforts, including privatization of public sector industries,
trade liberalization policies, and efforts to attract international
investment.
Nawaz Sharif’s Governments
 Elected twice as the 12th Prime Minister of Pakistan
 First term: 1 November 1990 to 18 July 1993
 Second term: 17 February 1997 to 12 October 1999.

Pak-U.S Relations during Nawaz
Regimes
 Diplomatic ties between the two states: Unfriendly
 Reasons:
i. Inclination towards establishing an ISLAMIC Society
ii. Allegations of having links with Al-Qaeda leader Osama

Bin Laden
iii. Being alleged for “not cracking down on the Taliban as it

flourished in Afghanistan and influenced the Northwest
Frontier Province

The Nuclear Dilemma
 Neither India nor Pakistan is signatories of the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) or the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty (CTBT).
 Pakistan carried out its successful nuclear tests on 28 May 1998, and
on 30 May 1998.
 Justification: National Security.
 In 1998, Prime minister Nawaz Sharif conducted nuclear test in
Balochistan, in retaliation to similar tests conducted by India.
President Clinton imposed sanctions under Glenn amendment on
India as well as Pakistan.
 Glenn amendment included suspension of aid, US bank loans to the
governments of India and Pakistan, loans from international
financial institutions, such as the IMF and World bank.
 In July of 1998, US lifted the sanctions on both the countries for
purchasing agricultural products from US farmers.

The Nuclear Dilemma…
 Various Sanctions imposed by the U.S:
i. U.S. Aid Cut-off in 1990
ii. Non-delivery of some 71 F-16 fighter aircraft ordered in 1989
iii. In 1998, President Clinton imposed economic and military
sanctions on Pakistan: Section 102 of the Arms Export

Control Act (AECA)
iv. Any U.S. exports to Pakistan required a Commerce

Department license, and most license requests reportedly
were denied
Pakistan-U.S Relations
Post 9/11
 September 11 attacks planted sour seeds early in the Bush
Administration
 Bush’s main focus was the Middle East (Bahrain,

Philippines, Thailand, Kuwait, Morocco, Pakistan)
 More cooperation demanded from the Pakistan

Government

Pakistan’s Foreign Policy-Post 9/11
 Remolding itself into a more co-operative ally
 Joining the ‘War On Terror’
 “We've captured 689 and handed over 369 to the United
States. We've earned bounties totaling millions of dollars…”
– P.M.
 In 2001, after the 9/11 attacks and US’s invasion in various
countries to eradicate militancy, Pakistan became one of the
most important strategic allies for United States.
 President Pervez Musharraf confessed that the country had no
option but to support United States as it had threatened Pakistan
of “bombing it into stone age” if it did not join the fight against al
Qaeda.
Pakistan’s Foreign Policy-Post 9/11
 2003, United States officially wrote off $1 billion loan it had
granted to Pakistan as a goodwill gesture and appreciation
for Pakistan’s cooperation.
 2004, President George Bush officially declared Pakistan as
a non-Nato ally granting it the authority to purchase
strategic and advanced military equipment.
 In 2004, US army launched first ever drone strikes on the
north-western side of the country. Large civilian deaths and
caused much opposition from Pakistanis.

Present Relations and Obama
Administration
 Obama elected in Nov 2008.
 A stable, democratic, prosperous Pakistan is considered
vital to U.S. interests.
 The Obama Administration states an intention to continue
pursuing close and mutually beneficial relations with
Islamabad.

“ In the past, we too often
defined our relationship
with Pakistan narrowly.
Those days are over.... The
Pakistani people must know
America will remain a strong
supporter of Pakistan’s
security and prosperity.”-
Barack Obama

The Aims of U.S. Administration
 A new concentration on stabilizing Afghanistan.
 The appointment of US special representative.
 Pakistani officers are now allowed to view video feeds
from unmanned American drones and to access U.S.
intercepts of militants’ communications.
 October 2009: U.S. Aid Package
 A new $7.5 billion U.S. aid package for Pakistan
 Received approximately 1.3 billion during 2010.
 Growth in anti-Americans feeling in Pakistan.

Pakistan-US Strategic Dialogue
 Owing to geographical contiguity the US needs Pakistan’s
full cooperation in the military operations against the
Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan.
 Keeping in mind the seriousness of the situation in
Afghanistan, US warmly welcomed Pakistan’s idea for
holding the Pak-US strategic dialogue so that new grounds
for cordial bilateral relationship could be prepared by
breaking away from the troubled past.
 The first ever strategic dialogue at the ministerial level held
on 24-25 March 2010 in Washington is of utmost
importance for the interests of both countries.
 This was the first round in the series of strategic dialogues
where the two countries were represented by both
democratic government leaders and top military officials.

 The main purpose behind the dialogue was to understand
and address the interests and concerns of each other.
 The US interest was to find a way with Pakistan’s assistance
for a safe and honorable exit from Afghanistan while
Pakistan was mainly interested in US assistance in economy,
and a civil nuclear deal like the one US concluded with
India and restraining Indian military role in Afghanistan.
 Pakistan has been seeking a civil nuclear deal and considers
it imperative for restoring balance in the region.

 The strategic dialogue covered all the three aspects —
civilian, political and military.
 The civilian part of the dialogue included bilateral
cooperation in the fields of economy and trade, energy, law
enforcement, science and technology, education,
agriculture, water, health, communications, and public
diplomacy.
 The military part dealt with assistance in defense, security,
non-proliferation and counter-terrorism while the political
part of the dialogue covered strategic stability and
continuation of political dialogues for resolving key
national security issues.
 For handling all the mentioned sectors of cooperation, a
Policy Steering Group was established to intensify and
expand the sector-by-sector
Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs
dialogue process. 56
How Strategic was the Dialogue?
 It raised a number of Pakistan’s national security demands.
 First of all, an agreement on civilian nuclear deal like the one
US signed with India to help it overcome the energy crisis it is
facing. Pakistan wanted to have a balanced relationship with
the US and not a discriminatory one.
 Secondly, Pakistan clearly made its point that it would not
tolerate Indian role and involvement of its forces in training
Afghan forces on its western border with Afghanistan. During
the dialogue session Pakistan emphasized that it respected
Indo-Afghan relations but not at the cost of Pakistan’s security
interests. In addition to this, Pakistan wanted the removal of
Indian consulates closer to Pakistan-Afghanistan border. It
believes that India is funding and creating disturbances in the
sensitive parts of Pakistan, particularly Balochistan through
its January
Thursday, consulates
28, 2016 near the border.
Current Affairs 57
How Strategic was the Dialogue?
 Thirdly, Pakistan wanted the US to persuade India into
resuming the peace dialogue with Pakistan and to get involved

in helping resolve the Kashmir issue. To Pakistan’s dismay
even during the ending session with the media there was no
mention of any future US engagements in getting the Indo-
Pakistan composite dialogue resumed and contentious issues
like Kashmir and water between the two resolved.

U.S.-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue
 The Strategic Dialogue includes strengthening bilateral
cooperation and advancing shared interests, including:
i. Pakistan’s economic growth,
ii. increased trade and energy cooperation,
iii. regional stability, and
iv. countering extremism and terrorism.
 Both sides reviewed the progress made by the
Working Groups on:
i. Economic and Finance;
ii. Defense;
iii. Law Enforcement and Counterterrorism;
iv. Security, Strategic Stability, and Nonproliferation; and
v. Energy.
 Fostering Economic Growth:
i. Both sides acknowledged the importance of expanded trade and investment
ties as the key to a sustainable, balanced and enduring partnership.
ii. Recalling the deliberations of the Trade and Investment Framework
Agreement (TIFA) Council meeting in May 2014 in Washington, the two
sides committed to work towards smooth and effective implementation of
the Joint Action Plan launched at the TIFA meeting.
iii. In this regard, Pakistan, while renewing its desire to seek a relationship
based on trade and investment, not solely aid, underscored its desire for
greater market access for its products through all means available.
iv. The two sides also renewed their support for the third U.S.-Pakistan
Business Opportunities Conference and the Pakistan-U.S. Economic
Partnership Week to be organized in Islamabad to encourage increased
bilateral trade and investment.
v. welcomed the launch by USAID of four new partnerships with private-sector
banks in Pakistan to improve access to finance for small businesses.

 Support for Energy Sector:
i. Both countries expressed their satisfaction over the convening of the
Diamer Bhasha Dam Project Business Opportunities conference by
USAID and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on October 8, 2014, in
Washington. The United States reaffirmed its support for exploring
the potential of the Diamer Bhasha Project to meet Pakistan’s critical
energy and water needs. Pakistan looked forward to the completion
of the feasibility study of the Diamer Bhasha Project being conducted
by USAID.
ii. Pakistan and the United States also underscored the importance of
intensifying efforts to facilitate regional energy connectivity and
continuing to upgrade Pakistan’s transmission infrastructure.
iii. Both sides expressed support for cooperation in expanding power
generation capacity, including hydroelectric and renewable resources
to bring additional capacity to the grid while minimizing the energy
sector’s contribution to global climate change; promoting the efficient
use of energy resources

 Education Sector Cooperation:
i. Both sides recalled the shared intent to further promote
educational and research opportunities, and welcomed the
creation of the Working Group on Education, Science and
Technology.
ii. Both sides noted that the Working Group will facilitate greater
academic linkages and promote scientific and technological
research collaboration between educational and research
institutions of the two countries to foster economic growth.
iii. Both sides expressed satisfaction at the increase in U.S-Pakistan
university partnerships in a range of fields, as well as the wide
range of educational exchange programs including the Fulbright
Program, to further promote educational and research
opportunities for Pakistani students
 Defense and Security Cooperation:
i. Both sides condemned terrorism in all its forms and
manifestations. They shared their perspective on effective
counterterrorism cooperation and stressed that there is no
distinction between good and bad militants.
ii. Both sides emphasized the need for effective action against all
violent extremists that threaten regional security.
iii. Both sides emphasized that no country’s territory should be
used to destabilize its neighbors.
iv. Both sides renewed their common resolve to promote peace,
stability, and transparency throughout the region and to
eliminate the threats posed by extremism and terrorism.

 Defense and Security Cooperation:
v. Both sides pledged to coordinate and cooperate on UN
designations for terrorists.
vi. Both sides attach high importance to preventing the
proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and their
means of delivery to states as well as non-state actors.
vii. Both sides stand together in achieving the objectives of United
Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1540, and both
have consistently supported and implemented relevant United
Nations Security Council Resolutions.

 Regional Cooperation:
i. Both sides recognized that terrorism represents a common
challenge to the region that requires common endeavors. They
shared their mutual conviction that a stable, well-managed and
peaceful Pakistan-Afghanistan border is vital for the success of
counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, and counter-IED efforts,
with complementary coordinated counterterrorism efforts
against militants conducted on both sides of the border.
ii. Both sides recognized that an inclusive Afghan-led and Afghan-
owned peace and reconciliation process is vital for achieving
long-term peace, stability and progress in Afghanistan and the
region.
iii. Both sides welcomed the call by the new Afghan government to
the Afghan Taliban and all armed opposition groups to resolve
differences through political means.
 Regional Cooperation:
iv. Both sides also concurred that regional economic cooperation
is crucial to reinforcing Afghanistan’s national efforts for
economic development and deeper regional integration.
v. Both sides welcomed Pakistan hosting the 5th Ministerial
Meeting of the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process in 2015 and
congratulated Pakistan on hosting productive Afghanistan-
Pakistan Transit Trade Coordination Authority meetings earlier
this month.
vi. Both sides stressed that improvement in Pakistan-India
bilateral relations would greatly enhance prospects for lasting
regional peace, stability, and prosperity, as it would significantly
benefit the lives of citizens on both sides of the border.
 Enduring Partnership:
i. Both sides affirmed their commitment to a long-term and
strong partnership between Pakistan and the United States
anchored in the enduring friendship between their two peoples,
which is not only in the interest of the two countries but also
vital for the peace, stability and prosperity of the region.
ii. Both sides showed commitment to democracy, human rights,
freedom, and respect for international law, the two leaders
reiterated their commitment to deepen and enhance the
relationship between the peoples of the United States and
Pakistan.
iii. Both sides committed to meet again for the Ministerial-level
Strategic Dialogue in 2016.
Key Contemporary issues
bedeviling Pak-U.S. Relations
i. Security and Terrorism after 9/11 terrorists’ attack
ii. Infiltration into Kashmir
iii. Infiltration into Afghanistan
iv. Domestic Terrorism
v. Religious Extremism and Anti-American Sentiment
vi. Nuclear Weapons and Missile Proliferation
vii. Democratization and Human Rights
viii. Narcotics

Pak- US Relations: The Way Forward
 While the expectations of both countries from each other
remain very high and therefore a ripe case for mistrust;
there is all the likelihood of continued closeness of
relations at least in the foreseeable future.
I. Realization of the Fragility of Pre-emption:
• In the post 9/11 period al-Qaeda killings and Guantanamo
Bay-like human rights abuses; that social economic
development of societies is also a necessary component of
anti - terrorism.
• To a lesser extent, Washington also realizes that resolution of
conflicts also contributes to condition of peace and security.
Moving forward on these various fronts, Pakistan have
become Washington's key ally.

Pak- US Relations : The Way Forward
II. The Geo-Strategic Compulsion:
• Pakistan's geographical location links it to four different
regions -- South Asia, South West Asia, China and Central
Asia — making it the swivel around which matters of trade,
security, politics and economy revolve.
• By virtue of its location Pakistan has the inherent strength to
influence security, trade and commerce, ideology and social
state of all the four regions that surround it.
• As the hub of an open-ended United States proxy war,
politico-economic instability and insecurity trickled to its
surrounding areas. This reality is also vivid to the US.

III. The New World Order:
• Any viable policy on future strategy for Pakistan vis a vis its
relations with the USA must be cognizant of, and address the
new world order; broad contours of which are enumerated
below: -
i. The US doctrine of pre-emption, allowing US overseas
intervention, with or without world/UN support.
ii. Is characterized by US Hegemony in a unipolar world,
streaming out of her military and economic muscle.
iii. The emergence of regional centers of power and that of quasi
and aspiring global players.
iv. Geo-economics is fast overtaking OEO -strategy; and the latter
is now looked at as a function of the former.

IV. Strategic Determinants:
• How the contours of Pak-US relationship will shape in the days to
come is a moot point. These will contingent upon domestic, regional
and global factors:
i. Domestically, how do the internal dynamics in Pakistan unfold in the
coming days? In other words, how strong and stable is the present
regime; and how effectively is it able South Asian Studies 29 (1) 302 to
handle the restive, resurgent and radical elements in the country. How
astute is it in handling the economy; that exports terrorism.
ii. Regionally, as to how the ongoing peace process between India and
Pakistan unfolds? The US, as a facilitator, would like to see progress in
the regard. It would also monitor the course of our strategic relationship
with China; and our role in Afghanistan.
iii. Globally, how do the US forces ultimately fare in Afghanistan and Iraq?
This would bear enormous domestic compulsions on the US; and world
directly affect its commitment to the War on Terror, and thus Pakistan.
Paradigms of Pak-US Future Strategy
i. Self Reliance. This must become a stated and vigorously
pursued policy objective. We cannot enjoy dignified
sovereignty without standing on our own two feet. What must
be understood is that it is not necessary to antagonize others
in realization of this aim.
ii. Restoration of National and Religious Pride. The dealing
with the US MUST NOT be viewed as a compromise on our
sovereignty. National dignity must be guarded and a positive
perception to this effect be created both internally and in the
international community. Own Islamic identity and character
be portrayed as a source of strength and an understanding
sought from the US to this effect.
iii. Inner Front. We must present a cohesive inner front to the
US. If anything the foreign elements, including the America
ns, should be dissuaded from interfering with and aggravating
our internal problems. The "religious extremism" card can be
played to own advantage in this regard.
iv. Relationship with China. The prowesses of Pakistani
diplomacy faces its acid test with regards to thwarting
American suspicion of own growing partnership with China.
Pakistan must pursue this strategic relationship; while
accruing benefits from contending Sino-US interests without
alienating the US; lest the Indians are afforded an open field to
foster relations with the USA. The Strategic relationship with
China has to be nurtured and guarded at all costs; it will pay
Pakistan in the long run.
v. The Indian Factor. The present US stance of bi-lateral
relationships with both Pakistan and India, independent of
each other, is fraught with danger for us. We can already
witness the manifestation of this in the growing US -India
strategic relationship. Leverage afforded by the present
environment be put to effective use to disrupt / delay this
growing nexus; and to address the conventional imbalance; as
well as 'coerce' the US to facilitate the Kashmir resolution.
vi. War on Terror. Pakistan must continue its support to the
global war on terror. But the US be made to appreciate
own' bottom line' in this regard. This congruence of
interests has to be carefully manipulated to own
advantage. The strategy must redress internal fallouts;
infact, pre-empt those if possible.
vii. Religious Extremism. There is no such category in
Pakistan, infact, this term is a misnomer; and the US be
asked to not only appreciate own point of view but also to
consent. On our part, we must ruthlessly root out
extremists who perpetrate acts of extremism. The social
utility of Madrassas and the effort to bring them into the
mainstream be realized to the Americans and to the
world.
viii. Nuclear proliferation / WMD. Pakistan needs to work
with the US on confidence building measures in this
regard. Without compromising own national security or
interests, we need to be viewed as a responsible nuclear
power. We must be cognizant that the US perception in
this aspect, like in most others, will mould world opinion.
ix. Media Blitz. Pakistan must be vocal against the "unholy
media blitz" leashed against it by the American and
western electronic media. This is one issue where our
stand should be un-ambiguous. All our efforts are
rendered in vain as the perception about Pakistan being
built by the media is what people perceive to be true. We
must link this directly to the extent of own support to the
US. In this aspect, we must have a defined watershed.
x. Economy and Trade. In the War on Terror Pakistan’s
destroyed their economy and trade as well as their
defense. US should give Pakistan to access the
International Financial Institutions and free Trade with
Pakistan give a boost to their relationship.

Conclusion
 Relationship depends on the convergence of the
national interest of both countries.
 The greater the convergence, the stronger with this

relationship be.
 US has been using Pakistan as an exit and an entry to

Afghanistan.
 US has always looked for its national interest and its

about time that Pakistan does the same.

Conclusion
 In the War on Terror Pakistan destroyed their economy,
trade and the defense capabilities. Pakistan wants a good
relationship and become a reliable ally for the US
government in War against Terrorism. Pakistan plays a vital
role in the stability of Afghanistan.
 From vendetta oriented political leaderships and dictatorial
regimes Pakistan is moving slowly and surely towards
sustainable democracy and political stability. From a
military centric concept of security Pakistan has realized the
importance of a broader concept of security with the
emphasis on economic and internal stability.
 These are paradigm shifts and the nation needs both time
and space, internally and externally, to absorb these and
steer the course to progress and prosperity.
Pakistan

Class Discussion
Pakistan and the US relations can be termed
friendly.
Agree Disagree

Meaning of Human Rights
 Human beings are rational beings. They by virtue of their being
human possess certain basic and inalienable rights which are
commonly known as human rights.
 Human Rights are defined as all those rights which are essential
for the protection and maintenance of dignity of individuals and
create conditions in which every human being can develop his
personality to the fullest extent may be termed as human rights.
 Human rights become operative with the birth of an individual.
Human rights, being the birth right, are inherent in all the
individuals irrespective of their caste, religion, sex and
nationality.

 Because of their immense significance to human beings ; human
rights are also sometimes referred to as fundamental rights, basic
rights, inherent rights, natural rights and birth rights.
 The World conference on Human Rights held in 1993 in Vienna
stated in the Declaration that all human rights derive from the
dignity and worth inherent in the human person , and that the
human person is the central subject of human rights and
fundamental rights.

 The idea of human rights is as old as humanity, its systematic
proclamation and declaration are more recent. The world’s first
bill of human rights was discovered on a clay tablet dating back
from the reign of Cyrus the Great (555- 529 BC)
 The documents which form the historical foundation of modern
human rights jurisprudence are the English Bill of Rights (1688),
the American Declaration of Independence (1776) and the
French Declaration of Rights of Man (1789).The legal process in
the universality of human rights effectively commenced with the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights 1948 (UDHR).

Modern Human Rights
 Human rights is one of such rights which has been conferred to
individuals by the states in the modern International Law.
 The modern perspective to human rights is reflected in the Vienna
Declaration adopted by the World conference on Human rights in June
1993. The declaration categorically states that all human rights are
universal, indivisible and interdependent and inter-related and that
democracy, development and respect for human rights and
fundamental freedoms are interdependent and mutually reinforcing.
The conference reaffirmed the right to development as a universal
inalienable right and an integral part of the fundamental human rights.
 The legal process in the universality of human rights effectively
commenced with the universal declaration of human rights 1948
(UDHR).
 Adoption of the UN charter in the aftermath of the Second World War
can rightly be considered as a landmark in the journey towards
universal acceptance
Thursday, January 28, 2016
of human rights.
Current Affairs 89
Modern Human Rights
 Through a long process of evolution , modern human rights
jurisprudence has crystallized into three basic principles:
i. The principle of universal inherence: Every human being has
certain rights, capable of being enumerated and defined which
are not conferred on him by any ruler, nor earned or acquired by
purchase, but which inhere in him by virtue of his humanity
alone.
ii. The principle of inalienability: no human being can be
deprived of any of those rights by the acts of any ruler or even by
his own act or in a democracy even by the will of the majority of
the sovereign people.
iii. The rule of Law: Where rights conflict with each other, the
conflicts must be resolved by the consistent, independent and
impartial application of just laws in accordance with just
procedures.
Modern Human Rights
 An individual can seek human rights only in an organized
community, i.e. a state , or in other words where the civil social
order exists. Thus the principle of protection of human rights is
derived from the concept of man as a person and his relationship
with an organized society which cannot be separated from
universal human nature.
 Human rights being essential for all- round development of the
personality of the individuals in the society be necessarily
protected and be made available to all the individuals. They must
be preserved, cherished and defended if peace and prosperity are
to be achieved . Human rights are the very essence of a
meaningful life and to maintain human dignity is the ultimate
purpose of the government.

Kinds of Human Rights
 There are two kinds of human rights:
i. Civil and political rights:
 Civil rights and liberties are referred to those rights which are
related to the protection of the right to life and personal liberty .
They are essential for a person so that he may live a dignified life.
such rights include right to life, liberty , right to privacy, freedom
from torture and right to own property. These rights also known
as (freedom from).
 Whereas political rights may be referred to those rights which
allow a person to participate in the government of a state. For e.g.
right to vote, right to be elected and right to take part in conduct
of public affairs.
 The nature of both civil and political rights may be different but
they are inter-related and therefore it does not appear logical to
differentiate them. This reason led to the formulation of one
covenant covering both civil and political rights into one covenant
i.e. International Covenant on civil and political rights.
ii. Economic, social and cultural rights:
 Economic, social and cultural rights are based fundamentally on the
concept of social equality( also called ‘freedom to’) are related to the
guarantee of minimum necessities of the life to human beings . In
the absence of these rights the existence of human beings is like to
be endangered.
 Right to adequate food, clothing, housing and adequate standard of
living and freedom from hunger, right to work , right to social
security, right to physical and mental health and right to education
are included in this category of rights.
 These rights sometimes called positive rights require active
intervention, not abstentions on the part of the states. The
enjoyment of these rights requires a major commitment of resources
and therefore their realization cannot be immediate as in the case of
civil and political rights.

 Although the United Nations has recognized the above
two sets of rights in two separate Covenants i.e.
International covenant on civil and political rights
(ICCPR) and International covenant on economic social
and cultural rights ( ICESCR) there is a close relationship
between them.
 It has been rightly realized especially by the developing
countries that civil and political rights can have no
meaning unless they are accompanied by social, economic
and cultural rights.
 Thus both categories of rights are equally important and
where civil and political rights do not exist, there cannot
be full realization of economic, social and cultural rights
and vice versa.
International Human Rights Law
 International human rights law has been developing extensively
since the creation of the United Nations. The most fundamental
point about human rights law is that it establishes a set of rules
for all the people of all the states.
 Human rights is international in the sense of it being universal,
applying to all the individual. However, international human
rights law refers mainly to the obligations of states to individuals
within their jurisdiction. When states fail to assure realization of
human rights to the individuals within their jurisdiction
international obligation arises. Thus, obligations to provide
human rights individuals is mainly intra-national and in some
cases international.
 Thus a state is not free to treat its nationals as it pleases despite
the fact that it is sovereign. The greatest impact of human rights
law has been to erode the absolute control which a state had in
the classical period.
International Human Rights Law
 The efforts for the creation of an international organization, in
order to establish peace, were being made even when the World
War II was in progress. Many declarations adopted by the
conference laid down the importance of human rights. The
declaration of the United Nations signed on January 1,1942 at
Washington was the first document which used the term human
rights.
 Thus, human rights became a matter of International concern
with the end of World War II and the founding of the United
Nations. Since then international human rights law has been
developing in an unprecedented way and has become a very
substantive part of International law as a whole. Although there
is no global government as such to protect human rights, it is
being protected by the various bodies of the United Nations and
the inter-governmental organizations.
Promotion and Protection of Human Rights
by the United Nations
 The prime responsibility for the promotion of human rights
under the U.N Charter rests in the General Assembly, in the
Economic and Social Council and its subsidiary body i.e. the
council on human rights.
 The term protection of human rights which may mean
implementation and enforcement action does not find place in
the U.N Charter. When human rights violations assume massive
dimensions, the General Assembly and other organs of the UN
can initiate discussion and action.
 Among the United Nations agencies only the Security Council
and the International Court of Justice can engage in enforcement
action; only they have a competence to pass a binding resolution
or issue a binding judgment. Enforcement is thus the
authoritative application of human rights.
Promotion and Protection of Human Rights
by the United Nations
 The United Nations in the past has been able to promote and
protect human rights by certain ways which are as follows:
i. Human Rights Consciousness- the first and the most
important role which the United Nations has played is that
it has made the people and the states conscious about the
human rights and fundamental freedoms.
ii. Codification of the law of human rights- The United
Nations has codified the different rights and freedoms by
making treaties for all sections of the people such as
women, child, workers, refugees, etc.

Council on Human Rights
 The Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) , a principal organ
of the United Nations was most directly concerned with the
question of human rights.
 The Council under Article 68 of the U.N Charter was empowered
to set up commissions for the promotion of human rights and
such other commissions as may be required for the performance
of its functions.
 The council may also meets annually in Geneva for six weeks
beginning in March. The commission may also meet between
annual sessions to deal with urgent human rights situations.

Council on Human Rights
 The council as determined by its terms of reference was directed
to prepare recommendations and reports on the following items:
i. On international bill of rights
ii. International declarations and conventions on civil liberties, the
status of women, freedom of information .
iii. The protection of minorities.
iv. The prevention of discrimination on grounds of race, language or
religion

Events Preceding UDHR
 WWI: Trench warfare, poison gas, and new weapons intensify war and
increasingly affect civilian populations.
 The League of Nations is created in response to an emerging
international sense of morality.
 Following the Great Depression, Franklin D. Roosevelt’s “New Deal”
(1933) guarantees social and economic benefits for workers. His “Four
Freedoms” (1941) identify freedom of speech and religion, and freedom
from want and fear as essential for all people.
 WWII: Nazis exterminate millions of people (incl. Jews, gypsies,
communists, people with disabilities, Jehovah’s Witnesses, and
homosexuals). The Japanese military brutalizes residents of occupied
countries. The United States drops the first atomic bomb on Japan.
 Nazi and Japanese war criminals are prosecuted in the first-ever war
trials: the Nuremberg and Tokyo tribunals.
 The United Nations is established in 1945.

Universal Declaration of Human Rights
 The idea for the protection for human rights and fundamental
freedoms was conceived in the Atlantic Charter (1941) and in the
Declaration of the United Nations (1942).
 The Universal Declaration of Human Rights was adopted in 1948
with an aim to enumerate human rights for all the people.
 The UDHR has inspired a rich body of legally binding
international human rights treaties. It continues to be an
inspiration to all whether in addressing injustices, in times of
conflicts and in our efforts towards achieving universal
enjoyment of human rights.

Universal Declaration of Human Rights
 The Preamble of the Universal Declaration proclaims the
declaration as a common standard of achievement of all people
and all nations.
 The Universal Declaration contains 30 Articles . It enumerate the
basic principles of human rights in a most comprehensive
manner. Out of 30 articles , while 21 articles enumerated civil and
political rights, 6 articles cover economic and social rights.
 It is to be noted that the Universal Declaration does not permit a
state to derogate from their obligations in public emergency
which threatens the life of the nation. Thus even in such cases
the rights cannot be suspended.

Legal Effect of the Declaration
 The Universal Declaration set for the International community a
common standard of achievement. It recognized the inherent dignity
and the equal and inalienable rights of all people in all nations. It is the
duty of the States regardless of their social, political and economic
systems to promote and protect human rights.
 The Universal Declaration was not intended to be legally binding and
therefore it did not impose any legal obligations on the States to give
effect to its provisions. In other words from the legal point of view, the
declaration was only recommendation and not strictly binding on the
states.
 The declarations addresses right to all people and all nations whether
they are members of the United Nations or not.
 The main object of the Declaration was to present the ideas of human
rights and freedoms in order to inspire everybody to work for their
progressive realization. The message conveyed is one of hope, equality,
liberation and empowerment.
International Humanitarian Law
 International humanitarian law is a branch of International Law which
provides protection to human beings from the consequences of armed
conflicts.
 Humanitarian Law deals with those matters which have an impact of
armed conflicts on the life ,personal integrity and liberty of human
beings. Thus humanitarian law may be referred to that body of law
which defines those principles and rules which limit the use of
violence in times of war.
 International Humanitarian Law has much in common with the law of
human rights since both is concerned with the protection of the
individuals nevertheless there are important differences between the
two. First difference is that International humanitarian law is applied
during the time of armed conflicts whereas the law of human rights is
applied in peace time.

International Humanitarian Law
 The second difference is that the state which becomes a party to a
human rights treaty assumes an obligation to treat all person within
the jurisdiction in accordance with the provisions of the treaty
.Humanitarian Law is primarily made up of treaties, agreements
between states intended to have binding legal effect between the
parties that have agreed to them and are binding only between States
which are parties to those treaties.
 International humanitarian law applies to all armed conflicts, i.e.
international armed conflicts as well as non-international armed
conflicts. International conflicts may mean an armed clash between
two or more states whereas non-international armed conflicts which
take place in the territory of a state between its armed forces. e.g.. civil
war are included in non-international armed conflicts.

Case Study
 Malala Yousafzai a Pakistani School girl know for her activism
for rights to education and for women especially in the Swat
Valley, where the Taliban had at times banned girls from
attending School. After this United Nations special envoy for
Global Education Gordon Brown launched a UN petition which
helped lead to the ratification of Pakistani first right to
education bill.
 Over the years many form of discrimination have come to be
recognized including racial, gender and sexual discrimination.
Another type of discrimination is against LGBT individuals
(Lesbian, Gay, bisexual, and transgender individuals.

Case Study
 Human Rights violations in Sri Lanka. The conflict in Sri Lanka
has been one of the greatest offenders in Human Rights
Violations. In this case the Government of Sri Lanka and the
separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) are accused
of violating Human Rights. LTTE were known as the most
vicious and dangerous terrorist groups in Sri Lanka.

Conclusion
 Presently there is a widespread acceptance of the importance of
human rights in the international structure. However, one will
not hesitate to admit that there is a confusion prevailing as to its
precise nature and scope and the mode of International Law as
to the protection of these rights.
 One valuable lesson that the history of human rights teaches us

is that they are not static but are developed in response to new
modes of political thought and changes in the international
environment.

Class Discussion
International human rights need global
commitment. What are the ten important ways to
ensure this global commitment towards the
observance of human rights.

Middle East
 A crisis is any event that is, or is expected to lead to, an
unstable and dangerous situation affecting an individual,
group, community, or whole society.
 Types of crises:
i. Political
ii. Economic
iii. Social
iv. Demographic
v. Ethnic
 Middle East region has all kinds of above mentioned crises.

Middle East
 The Middle East is a transcontinental region centered
on Western Asia and Egypt.
 Several major religions have their origins in the Middle
East, including Judaism, Christianity, and Islam; the Baha'i
faith, Mandaeism, Unitarian Druze, and numerous other
belief systems were also established within the region.
 Most of the countries that border the Persian Gulf have
vast reserves of crude oil, with the dictatorships of
the Arabian Peninsula in particular benefiting from
petroleum exports.
 In modern times the Middle East remains a strategically,
economically, politically, culturally and religiously sensitive
region.
Middle East
 In modern-day-country terms they are these:
i. Bahrain
ii. Cyprus
iii. Egypt
iv. Iran
v. Iraq
vi. Israel
vii. Jordan
viii. Kuwait
ix. Lebanon
x. Oman
xi. Palestinian territories
xii. Qatar
xiii. Saudi Arabia
xiv. Syria
xv. Turkey
xvi. United Arab Emirates
xvii. Yemen
Middle East

Middle East
 Middle Eastern economies range from being very poor (such
as Gaza and Yemen) to extremely wealthy nations (such as
Qatar and UAE). Overall, as of 2007, according to the CIA
World Factbook, all nations in the Middle East are
maintaining a positive rate of growth.
 According to the World Bank's World Development
Indicators database published on July 1, 2009, the three
largest Middle Eastern economies in 2008 were Turkey
($794,228,000,000), Saudi Arabia ($467,601,000,000) and
Iran ($385,143,000,000) in terms of Nominal GDP.

Migrations in Middle East
 According to the International Organization for Migration,
there are 13 million first-generation migrants from Arab nations
in the world, of which 5.8 reside in other Arab countries.
 Expatriates from Arab countries contribute to the circulation of
financial and human capital in the region and thus significantly
promote regional development.
 In 2014, Arab countries received a total of 40.1 billion USD
in remittance in-flows and remittances sent
to Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon from other Arab countries are 40
to 190 per cent higher than trade revenues between these and
other Arab countries
 Non-Arab Middle Eastern countries such
as Turkey, Israel and Iran are also subject to important
migration dynamics.
Unemployment in Middle East
 The biggest threat from and to the Middle East region stems not
from ISIS, nor from extremism, nor religious conflict. While all
these are serious threats, at their root is the massive unemployment
problem of a growing youth population that is around 40% of the
total population.
 In 2011, unemployment has increased in the Middle East countries,
with the largest increase registered for Tunisia (about 7 percentage
points) and Egypt (about 3.5 percentage points).
 Unusually, education in this region is not a guarantee against
unemployment. In fact, unemployment tends to increase with
schooling, exceeding 15% for those with tertiary education in Egypt,
Jordan and Tunisia.
 High labor force growth, skill mismatches, labor and product
market rigidities, large public sectors, and high reservation wages
have been key factors behind the large and persistent level of youth
unemployment.

Arab Spring in Middle East
 The term "Arab Spring" is an allusion to the Revolutions of 1848, which
is sometimes referred to as the "Springtime of Nations", and the Prague
Spring in 1968.
 In the aftermath of the Iraq War it was used by various commentators
and bloggers who anticipated a major Arab movement towards
democratization.
 The Arab Spring was are revolutionary
waves of demonstrations and protests, riots, and civil wars in the Arab
world that began on 18 December 2010 in Tunisia with the Tunisian
Revolution, and spread throughout the countries of the Arab
League and its surroundings.
 While the wave of initial revolutions and protests faded by mid-2012,
some started to refer to the succeeding and still ongoing large-scale
discourse conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa as the Arab
Winter.
 The most radical discourse from Arab Spring into the still ongoing civil
wars took place in Syria as early as the second half of 2011.

 By the end of February 2012, rulers had been forced from power in
Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen; civil uprisings had erupted in
Bahrain and Syria; major protests had broken out in Algeria, Iraq,
Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, and Sudan; and minor protests had
occurred in Mauritania, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Djibouti, Western
Sahara, and Palestine.
 Weapons and Tuareg fighters returning from the Libyan Civil War
stoked a simmering conflict in Mali which has been described as
"fallout" from the Arab Spring in North Africa.
 The protests shared some techniques of civil resistance in sustained
campaigns involving strikes, demonstrations, marches, and rallies,
as well as the effective use of social media to organize,
communicate, and raise awareness in the face of state attempts at
repression and Internet censorship, most notably used by
the youth members of the Arab population.
 Many Arab Spring demonstrations were met with violent responses
from authorities, as well as from pro-government militias and
counter-demonstrators. These attacks were answered with violence
from protestors in some cases.
 A major slogan of the demonstrators in the Arab world is Ash-sha`b
yurid isqat an-nizam ("the people want to bring down the
regime").
 Some observers have drawn comparisons between the Arab Spring
movements and the Revolutions of 1989 (also known as the
"Autumn of Nations") that swept through Eastern Europe and
the Second World, in terms of their scale and significance.

 The Arab Spring is widely believed to have been instigated by
dissatisfaction with the rule of local governments, particularly by youth
and unions, though some have speculated that wide gaps in income
levels may have had a hand as well.
 Other analysts pointed to the fourth stage "Toppling the Regimes" of
the Al Qaeda strategy for world domination, described in Fouad
Hussein's book published in 2005.
 Numerous factors led to the protests, including issues such
as dictatorship or absolute monarchy, human rights violations, political
corruption, economic decline, unemployment, extreme poverty, and a
number of demographic structural factors, such as a large percentage of
educated but dissatisfied youth within the entire population.

 The series of protests and demonstrations across the Middle East and
North Africa that commenced in 2010 became known as the "Arab
Spring", and sometimes as the "Arab Spring and Winter", "Arab
Awakening" or "Arab Uprisings" even though not all the participants in
the protests were Arab. It was sparked by the first protests that
occurred in Tunisia on 18 December 2010.
 As of September 2014, governments had been overthrown in four
countries. Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled to Saudi
Arabia on 14 January 2011 following the Tunisian Revolution protests.
 In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak resigned on 11 February 2011 after 18
days of massive protests, ending his 30-year presidency.

 The Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown on 23 August
2011, after the National Transitional Council (NTC) took control of Bab
al-Azizia. He was killed on 20 October 2011, in his hometown
of Sirte after the NTC took control of the city.
 Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh signed the GCC power-transfer
deal in which a presidential election was held, resulting in his
successor Abd al-Rab Mansur al-Hadi formally replacing him as the
president of Yemen on 27 February 2012, in exchange for immunity
from prosecution.
 During the entire Arab Spring (2010-2015), about:
i. Six governments overthrown (Tunisia, Libya, Egypt twice and Yemen
twice)
ii. Four civil wars (Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen)
iii. One civil disorder leading to governmental changes (Oman)
iv. Five protests leading to governmental changes
v. Five major protests (Algeria, Sudan, Iran, Israel, Jordon)
vi. Six minor protests (UAE, PA, Mauritania, KSA, Somali, Djibouti)
 Catalysts for the revolts in all Northern African and Persian Gulf
countries included the concentration of wealth in the hands of
autocrats in power for decades, insufficient transparency of its
redistribution, corruption, and especially the refusal of the youth to
accept the status quo.
 Some protesters looked to the Turkish model as an ideal (contested but
peaceful elections, fast-growing but liberal economy, secular
constitution but Islamist government).
 More broadly, increasing food prices and famine rates associated
with climate change may have acted as "stressors" that contributed to
unrest in the region

ISIS in Middle East
 Islamic State (IS) stands with al-Qaeda as one of the most dangerous
jihadist groups, after its gains in Syria and Iraq.
 Under its former name Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isis), it was
formed in April 2013, growing out of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI).
 It has since been disavowed by al-Qaeda, but has become one of the
main jihadist groups fighting government forces in Syria and Iraq.
 Its precise size is unclear but it is thought to include thousands of
fighters, including many foreign jihadists.
 The organization is led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Little is known about
him, but it is believed he was born in Samarra, north of Baghdad, in
1971 and joined the insurgency that erupted in Iraq soon after the 2003
US-led invasion.
 Today, IS is said to earn significant amounts from the oil fields it
controls in eastern Syria, reportedly selling some of the supply back to
the Syrian government. It is also believed to have been selling looted
antiquities from historical sites.
ISIS in
Middle
East

ISIS in Middle East
 In June 2014, the group formally declared the establishment of a
"caliphate" - a state governed in accordance with Islamic law, or Sharia,
by God's deputy on Earth, or caliph.
 It has demanded that Muslims across the world swear allegiance to its
leader - Ibrahim Awad Ibrahim al-Badri al-Samarrai, better known as
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi - and migrate to territory under its control.
 IS has also told other jihadist groups worldwide that they must accept
its supreme authority. Many already have, among them several
offshoots of the rival al-Qaeda network.
 In 2014, IS successfully fought in a large-scale offensive in Iraq. After
this offensive, ISIL is reported to have seized control of most of Mosul,
the second biggest city in Iraq, its surrounding Nineveh province, and
the city of Fallujah.
 IS has also taken control of Tikrit, the administrative center of the
Salah ad Din Governorate. It wants to capture Baghdad, the Iraqi
capital.
Palestine Issue
 Palestinian refugees are people who lost both their
homes and means of livelihood as a result of the 1948
Arab-Israeli conflict and the 1967 Six-Day War.
 The number of Palestinians who fled or were expelled
from Israel following its creation was estimated at
711,000 in 1949.

Reduced Oil Prices
 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) is an international
organization headquartered in Vienna, Austria.
 OPEC was established in Baghdad, Iraq on 10–14
September 1960.
 As of December 2015, OPEC has thirteen members:
Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Lib
ya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia (the de facto leader),
the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.
 In 2014, the oil price is reduced to $40 a barrel in the
international market.

Reduced Oil Prices
 Oil companies and countries dependent on revenues from
'black gold' might be forgiven for thinking that things
cannot get much worse. Goldman Sachs, however, believes
that they can.
 Three arguments supporting the case for another major
drop:
i. Stockpiles just keep rising
ii. Production is not falling enough
iii. Efficiencies in fuel use, warmer weather caused by the El
Nino phenomenon and a new drive to reduce fossil fuel
burning to protect against climate change are all
preventing drawdown surging to meet or exceed supply.

Middle East Economy

Solutions to Middle East Crises
 Some of the most important strategies include:
i. Regional consensus
ii. Decreasing dependence on petro-economics
iii. Economic diversity
iv. Promotion of tourism
v. Democracy at the grass root level
vi. Strong militaries
vii. Regional response to terrorism and separatist tendencies
viii. Socio-economic justice
ix. Respect for Fundamental Rights
x. Proactive role of Arab League towards conflict resolution

Traditional Security
 The traditional security paradigm refers to a realist construct of
security in which the referent object of security is the state. The
prevalence of this theorem reached a peak during the Cold War.
 For almost half a century, major world powers entrusted the
security of their nation to a balance of power among states. In
this sense international stability relied on the premise that if
state security is maintained, then the security of citizens will
necessarily follow.
 Traditional security relied on the anarchistic balance of power, a
military build-up between the United States and the Soviet
Union (the two superpowers), and on the absolute sovereignty of
the nation state.
 States were deemed to be rational entities, national interests and
policy driven by the desire for absolute power. Security was seen
as protection from invasion; executed during proxy conflicts
using technical and military capabilities.

 As Cold War tensions receded, it became clear that the
security of citizens was threatened by hardships arising
from internal state activities as well as external aggressors.
 Civil wars were increasingly common and compounded
existing poverty, disease, hunger, violence and human rights
abuses. Traditional security policies had effectively masked
these underlying basic human needs in the face of state
security. Through neglect of its constituents, nation states
had failed in their primary objective.
 More recently, the traditional state-centric notion of
security has been challenged by more holistic approaches to
security.

 To enhance international security against potential threats
caused by terrorism and organized crime, there have been
an increase in international cooperation, resulting in
transnational policing.
 The international police Interpol shares information across
international borders and this cooperation has been greatly
enhanced by the arrival of the Internet and the ability to
instantly transfer documents, films and photographs
worldwide.

International Security
 International Security, also called Global Security, refers to
the amalgamation of measures taken by nations and
international organizations, such as the United Nations,
European Union, Association of Southeast Asian Nations,
and others, to ensure mutual survival and safety.
 These measures include military action and diplomatic
agreements such as treaties and conventions. International
and national security are invariably linked. International
security is national security or state security in the global
arena.

 With the end of World War II, a new subject of academic
study focusing on international security emerged. It began
as an independent field of study, but was absorbed as a sub-
field of international relations.
 Since it took hold in the 1950s, the study of international
security so called International Security Studies, has been at
the heart of international relations studies.
 It covers labels like "security studies", "strategic studies",
"peace studies", and others.

 The meaning of "security" is often treated as a common sense
term that can be understood by "unacknowledged consensus".
 The content of international security has expanded over the
years.
 It covers a variety of interconnected issues in the world that have
an impact on survival. It ranges from the traditional or
conventional modes of military power, the causes and
consequences of war between states, economic strength, to
ethnic, religious and ideological conflicts, trade and economic
conflicts, energy supplies, science and technology, food, as well
as threats to human security and the stability of states from
environmental degradation, infectious diseases, climate change
and the activities of non-state actors.
 While the wide perspective of international security regards
everything as a security matter, the traditional approach focuses
mainly or exclusively on military concerns
Concepts of Security in the
International Arena
 Edward Kolodziej has compared international security to a
Tower of Babel and Roland Paris (2004) views it as "in the
eye of the beholder".
 Security has been widely applied to "justify suspending civil
liberties, making war, and massively reallocating resources
during the last fifty years".
 Walter Lippmann (1944) views security as the capability of a
country to protect its core values, both in terms that a state
need not sacrifice core values in avoiding war and can
maintain them by winning war.
 David Baldwin (1997) argues that pursuing security
sometimes requires sacrificing other values, including
marginal values and prime values. Richard Ullman (1983)
has suggested that a decrease in vulnerability is security.
The Multi-sum Security Principle
 Traditional approaches to international security usually focus on
state actors and their military capacities to protect national
security. However, over the last decades the definition of security
has been extended to cope with the 21st century globalized
international community, its rapid technological developments
and global threats that emerged from this process. One such
comprehensive definition has been proposed by Nayef Al-
Rodhan.
 "Multi-sum security principle" is based on the assumption that
"in a globalized world, security can no longer be thought of as a
zero-sum game involving states alone. Global security, instead,
has five dimensions that include human, environmental,
national, transnational, and transcultural security, and therefore,
global security and the security of any state or culture cannot be
achieved without good governance at all levels that guarantees
security through justice for all individuals, states, and cultures."
 Each of these five dimensions refers to a different set of
substrates.
i. The first dimension refers to human security, a concept that
makes the principle referent object of security the
individual, not the state.
ii. The second dimension is environmental security and
includes issues like climate change, global warming, and
access to resources.
iii. The third substrate refers to national security, defined as
being linked to the state’s monopoly over use of force in a
given territory and as a substrate of security that emphasizes
the military and policing components of security.

iv. The fourth component deals with transnational threats such
as organized crime, terrorism, and human trafficking.
v. Finally, the integrity of diverse cultures and civilizational
forms tackles the issue of transcultural security.
 According to this multi-faceted security framework all five
dimensions of security need to be addressed in order to
provide just and sustainable global security. It therefore
advocates cooperative interaction between states and
peaceful existence between cultural groups and
civilizations.

Human Security
 Human security derives from the traditional concept of
security from military threats to the safety of people and
communities. It is an extension of mere existence (survival)
to well-being and dignity of human beings.
 Human security is an emerging school of thought about the
practice of international security.
 There is no single definition of human security, it varies
from " a narrow term of prevention of violence to a broad
comprehensive view that proposes development, human
rights and traditional security together."
 Critics of the concept of human security claim that it covers
almost everything and that it is too broad to be the focus of
research. There have also been criticisms of its challenge to
the role of states and their sovereignty.
Human Security
 Human security offers a critique of and advocates an alternative
to the traditional state-based conception of security.
 Essentially, it argues that the proper referent for security is the
individual and that state practices should reflect this rather than
primarily focusing on securing borders through unilateral
military action.
 The justification for the human security approach is said to be
that the traditional conception of security is no longer
appropriate or effective in the highly interconnected and
interdependent modern world in which global threats such as
poverty, environmental degradation, and terrorism supersede the
traditional security threats of interstate attack and warfare.
 It argues that a state can best maintain its security and the
security of its citizens by ensuring the security of others. It is
need to be noted that without the traditional security no human
security can be assured.

Human Security
 Components of human security:
i. Economic security
ii. Food security
iii. Health security
iv. Environmental security
v. Personal security
vi. Community security
vii. Political security

Class Discussion
Political security is more important

than the food security.
Agree Disagree

Population Growth
 There are two things that affect the population size of the
world:
i. Birth rate- the number of live babies born per thousand of
the population per
ii. Death rate-the number of deaths per thousand of the
population per year.
 When the birth rate is higher than the death rate, more
people are being born than are dying, so the population
grows
 This is called Natural increase
 When the death rate is higher than the birth rate it is
called the natural decrease.
Countries go through five stages of population growth
These are shown by the Demographic transition model (DTM)
Poorer, less developed countries are in the earlier stages of the DTM,
whilst richer more developed
Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs
countries are in the later stages. 155
Stage 1
• Birth rate is high because there's no use of

contraception, and people have lots of children
because many infants die.
• Death rate is high due to poor healthcare.
• Population growth rate is zero.
• Population structure- life expectancy is low, so
the population is made up of mainly young
people.
Stage 2
• Birth rate is high because there's no use of

contraception, Also the economy is based on
agriculture so people have lots of children to work
on farms.
• Death rate falls due to improved healthcare.
• Population growth rate is very high.
• Population structure- life expectancy has
increased but there are still more young people
than older people. Current Affairs
Thursday, January 28, 2016 156
Stage 3
• Birth rate is rapidly falling due to the
emancipation of women and better education.
• The use of contraception increases and more
women work instead of having children.
• The economy also changes to manufacturing, so
fewer children are needed to work on farms.
• Death rate falls due to more medical advances.
• Population growth rate is high
• Population structure- more people are living to
be older
Stage 4
• Birth rate is low- people move to urban areas ,
their wealth improves and they want more
possessions. This means there is less money
available for having children.
• Death rate is low and fluctuating.
• Population growth rate is zero.
• Population structure- life expectancy is high,
so even more people are living to be older.
Rapid population growth has social, Political
economic and political impacts. • Most of the population is made
up of young people so the
Social government focuses on policies
• Services like healthcare and education cant that are important to young
cope with the rapid increase in population , people e.g. education and
so not everyone has access to them. provision of things such as
• Children have to work to help support their childcare.
large families , so they miss out on • There are fewer older people so
education. the government doesn’t have to
• There aren't enough houses for everyone, so focus on policies that are
people are forced to live in makeshift houses important to older people e.g.
in overcrowded settlements. This leads to pensions.
health problems because the houses aren't • The government has to make
always connected to sewers or they don’t policies to bring population
have access to clean water. growth under control so the
• There are food shortages if the country cant social and economic impacts of
grow or import enough food for the rapid population growth don’t
population. get any worse.
Economic
• There aren't enough jobs for the number of people in the country so
unemployment increases.
• There is increased poverty because more people are born into families that
are already poor.

 The population structure of an ageing population has
more older people than younger people because few
people are being born and people are living to be older.
 Countries with a an ageing population are usually the

richer countries in stage 5 of the DTM.
 Older people (over 65) are supported by the working

population (aged 16-64)- they're dependant on them . So
in a country with an ageing population there is a higher
proportion of people who are dependant.
• The working population pay taxes, some of which the
government use to pay the state pensions of older people and
to pay for services like healthcare and retirement homes.
• Taxes would need to go up because there are more pensions to

pay for and older people need more healthcare.
• The economy would grow more slowly- less money is being

spent on things that help the economy e.g. education and
business.

• Healthcare services are stretched more because older people need
more medical care.
• People will need to spend more time working as unpaid carers for
older family members. This means that the working population
have less leisure time and are more stressed and worried.
• People may have fewer children because they cant afford lots of
children when they have dependant older relatives. This leads to a
drop in birth rate.
• The more old people there are the lower the pension will be
.People will have to retire later because they cant afford to get by
on a state pension.
• Encouraging larger families e.g. in Italy women are offered
cash rewards to have more children. This increases the
number of young people- when they start work there will a
larger working population to pay taxes and support the
ageing population
• Encouraging the immigration of young people from other

countries. This increases the working population.

• Raising the retirement age- people stay in work longer and
contribute to state pensions and personal pensions for
longer. They will also claim the state pension for less time.
• Raising taxes for the working population- this would

increase the amount of money available to support the
ageing population.
• These strategies help towards sustainable development

because they help to reduce the impacts of an ageing
population, without increasing the population size.

 Migration is the movement of
people from one area to another.
 When people move into an area

its called emigration.
 When people leave an area its

called emigration.

 It is a blessing if:
i. Properly managed
ii. Rationalization of resources
iii. Working class
iv. Revenue generation
v. Division of labor

Push factors are the things about a Pull factors are things about a
persons place of origin that make persons destination that attracts
them decide to move. them to it.
Example Push
factors Example Pull factors
• Not being able to • Job opportunities

find a job. • Better standards of
• Poor living living
conditions.
• Natural disasters
Positive impacts Negative impacts
Source country • Reduced demand on • Labour shortage- its mostly people

services e.g. schools and of working age that emigrate.
hospitals • Skills shortage – sometimes it’s the
• Money is sent back to the more highly educated people that
source country by emigrate.
emigrants • Ageing population- there's a high
proportion of older people left
Receiving • Increased labour force- • Locals and immigrants compete for
country young people immigrate to jobs- this can lead to tension and
find work. conflict.
• Migrant workers pay taxes • Increased demand for services e.g
that help to fund services overcrowding in schools and
hospitals
• Not all the money by immigrants is
spent in the destination country-
some is sent to their country of
Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs origin. 169
Class Discussion
 Population growth in Pakistan is a

threat or an opportunity?

Global Warming
 Global warming relates to the increase in the average
temperature of the Earth's surface that has been
observed in recent years, and it is projected to
continue. It is debated as to whether this is a natural
occurrence or whether human activity has impacted or
accelerated it. ...

GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
 The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption
and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the
atmosphere are purported to warm a planet's lower
atmosphere and surface.
 Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean
warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).
 The major greenhouse gases are
i. water vapor, which causes about 36–70 percent of the
greenhouse effect;
ii. carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26 percent;
iii. methane (CH4), which causes 4–9 percent; and
iv. ozone (O3), which causes 3–7 percent.
v. Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but they are
composed of liquid water or ice and so have different
effects
Thursday, January on radiation
28, 2016 Current Affairs from water vapor. 174
CAUSES OF GLOBAL WARMING
 Global warming is caused by several things, which include
man-made or anthropogenic causes, and global warming is
also caused by natural causes.
 There are many causes, some are as follows:
i. Natural Causes
ii. Man-made Causes of Global Warming

NATURAL CAUSES
 Natural causes are causes that are created by nature. One
natural cause is a release of methane gas from arctic tundra
and wetlands. Methane is a greenhouse gas and a very
dangerous gas to our environment.
 A greenhouse gas is a gas that traps heat in the earth's
atmosphere. Another natural cause is that the earth goes
through a cycle of climate change. This climate change
usually lasts about 40,000 years.

MAN-MADE CAUSES
 Man-made causes probably do the most damage to our
planet. There are many man-made causes of global
warming. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made
problems. Pollution comes in many shapes and sizes.
Burning fossil fuels is one thing that causes pollution.
 Fossil fuels are fuels made of organic matter such as coal, or
oil. When fossil fuels are burned they give off a green
house gas called CO2.
 When you dig up the fossil fuels you dig up the methane as
well letting it escape into the atmosphere.

World Projection to 2150 with current
levels of CO2

Greenhouse Gas Emission
LIGNITE
COAL
OIL
NATURAL GAS
SOLAR PV
HYDRO
BIOMASS
WIND
NUCLEAR
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Source: Sokolov, IAEA, 2005

World Projection to 2150 with 10% reduction in
CO2 emission (following Kyoto Protocol)
1: Atmospheric CO2 ppm
1: 600
1: 450
1
1
1: 300
2002.00 2039.00 2076.00 2113.00 2150.00
Page 1 Y ears 11:12 AM Fri, Dec 01, 2006
Untitled

EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
 The effects of Global Warming can already be seen
The IPCC's Third Assessment Report finds that in the last
40 years, the global average sea level has risen, ocean heat
content has increased, and snow cover and ice extent have
decreased, which threatens to inundate low-lying island
nations and coastal regions throughout the world.
 Effects of global warming already being felt on plants
and animals worldwide
 Global Warming Effects that will happen in the future:

Effects of Global Warming on Earth
 Global warming will have serious impacts on the
environment and on society. Higher temperatures will
cause a melting of ice in Greenland and Antarctica. This
will accelerate the rise of sea level. The speed at which
global warming is expected to occur in the 21st century is
faster than most plant and animal species will be able to
cope with. Some will adapt but others will suffer and may
become extinct.
 Global warming will affect agriculture. New crops will be
able to be grown in areas that are currently too cold to
support them. However, more pests and diseases may
offset any benefits higher temperatures may have. Water
resources will also be affected.
Effects of Global Warming felt on
Plants and Animals
 Global warming is having a significant impact on hundreds
of plant and animal species around the world -- although
the most dramatic effects may not be felt for decades,
according to a new study in the journal Nature.

OZONE LAYER DEPLETION
 The ozone layer protects the Earth from the ultraviolet rays
sent down by the sun. If the ozone layer is depleted by
human action, the effects on the planet could be
catastrophic.
 Ozone is a bluish gas that is formed by three atoms of
oxygen. The form of oxygen that humans breathe in
consists of two oxygen atoms, O2.
 When found on the surface of the planet, ozone is
considered a dangerous pollutant and is one substance
responsible for producing the greenhouse effect.

GLOBAL WARMING STATISTICS
 According to NASA, the hottest year on record was 2005,
which matched 1998.
 According to the National Climactic Data Centre
estimates, $100 billion of damage was caused by hurricanes
hitting the U.S. coast in 2005 alone.
 It is also projected that 15-37% of all plant and animal
species could be wiped out by global warming by the year
2050, which could further cause considerable damage to
our planet's ecosystem.

Projection of Global Warming
 Some basic predictions of global warming on temperature and
sea level by 2050:
i. Global mean temperature should increase by between 1.4 and
5.8 degree Celsius (2.5 to 10 degree Fahrenheit).
ii. The Northern Hemisphere cover should decrease further, but
the Antarctic ice sheet should increase.
iii. The sea level should rise by between 9 and 88 cm (3.5" to 35").
iv. Other changes should occur, including an increase in some
extreme weather events.
v. The United States is ranked nr.1 among large nations of being a
global warming polluter
vi. The sooner we take heed of these statistics and implement
changes that address global warming, the quicker we can reverse
the disturbing trends and the less damage will occur to our
planet and way of life.

PREVENTING GLOBAL WARMING
 Useless usage of AC's and Refrigerators should be stopped
because from them harmful rays cfc's are emitted which
results in depletion of ozone layer and from that hole UV
rays of Sun comes to the earth and cause many diseases to
both animals and plants i.e. Skin cancer etc. , CNG and
hydrogen operated vehicles should be used, more no. of
trees should be planted, Chimneys in the Industries should
be upgraded so that most of the effluents should get
filtered down there.

Some Highlights
 Protection and improvement of the human
environment is a major issue
 Developing countries must direct their efforts to

development, bearing in mind their priorities and the
need to safeguard and improve the environment
 Natural growth of population continuously presents

problems for the preservation of the environment

Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
Established 1988
Joint program of the

World Meteorological Organization
and the United Nations Environment
Program
Mandate of Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
 Assess scientific, technical and socio- economic
information relevant for the understanding of
climate change, its potential impacts and options
for adaptation and mitigation

United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
1992

Highlight
 Ultimate objective: stabilize greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would
prevent dangerous interference with the climate
system
 Commitments of states
i. publish inventories of sources & sinks
ii. formulate & implement mitigation plans
iii. promote scientific exchanges
 United States is a signatory

Kyoto Protocol
to the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change
Negotiated in 1997
Open for signature in 1998
Came into force February 16, 2005

Introduction
 The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),
aimed at fighting global warming
 The UNFCCC is an international environmental treaty with
the goal of achieving the "stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with
the climate system.“
 The Protocol was initially adopted on 11 December 1997
in Kyoto, Japan, and entered into force on 16 February 2005
 As of September 2011, 191 states have signed and ratified the
protocol
Participation in Kyoto Protocol as of 2015
Brown = Countries that have signed and ratified the treaty

(Annex I & II countries in dark brown)
Blue = No intention to ratify at this stage.
Dark blue = Canada, which withdrew from the Protocol in December 2011.
Grey = no position taken or position unknown

Highlights
 The Kyoto Protocol is a agreement under which industrialized
countries will reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse
gases by 5.2% compared to the year 1990
 Compared to the emissions levels that would be expected by 2010
without the Protocol, this target represents a 29% cut.
 The goal is to lower overall emissions from six greenhouse gases -
carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride,
HFCs, and PFCs - calculated as an average over the five-year
period of 2008-12.
 National targets range from 8% reductions for the European
Union and some others to 7% for the US, 6% for Japan, 0% for
Russia, and permitted increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for
Iceland.
 Sinks can be used to offset emission and emission credits can be
traded.

US and Kyoto
US signed in 1998 (Clinton) but withdrew in in
2001 (Bush)
 "The Kyoto Protocol was fatally flawed in fundamental

ways, but the process used to bring nations together to
discuss our joint response to climate change is an
important one …”
George W. Bush
June 11, 2001

Bush’s Criticisms
 Emissions targets arbitrary and not based on science
 Protocol's binding limits on emissions could harm the

U.S. economy
 Several big emitter countries, such as China (the

number 2 emitter) and India (number 6) are totally
exempt.

Kyoto Rule Book
December 2, 2005
 Defines how each country’s emissions and sinks (e.g.
reforestation) are accounted
 Developed countries can invest in other developed
countries and earn carbon allowances
 Establishes the Clean Development Mechanism which
allows developed countries to invest in sustainable
development projects (excl. nukes) in developing countries

Status and Projections of
Kyoto Protocol

Various Reactions to Kyoto

Why Greenpeace supports Kyoto
 The Kyoto Protocol is the only global action plan
against climate change.
 It's just the first step but the way forward is for
countries to get on board and negotiate the next
round of emissions reduction targets.

Details of the agreement
 Financial Commitments:
 Developed countries have to pay billions of dollars and
supply technology to other countries for climate related
studies. E.g. The Adaptation Fund
 Enforcement:
 If a country is not in compliance with its emissions
limitation, it is required to make up the difference
during the 2nd commitment period plus an additional
30%
 It will also be suspended from making transfers under
an emissions trading program

Top 5 Emitters
Emissions as a percentage of the global total, per capita
emissions in tons of GHG per capita
i. United States 16%, 24.1
ii. China 15%, 5.8
iii. European Union 11%, 10.6
iv. Indonesia 6%, 12.9
v. India 5%, 2.1
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA, 2014,p.201)

Negotiations
 Industrialized countries were committed to ‘take the
lead’ in reducing emissions
 They were required to stabilize their emissions at 1990
levels by 2010
 Failure to do so made Kyoto move to binding
commitments
 Developing countries were not subject to emission
reduction commitments in the first Kyoto
commitment period
 Clean Development Mechanism was designed to limit
emissions in developing countries
Emission Cuts
 The G77 wanted strong uniform emission cuts across
the developed world
 However, countries such as the US made suggestions
to reduce their responsibility to reduce emissions
(inclusion of carbon sinks, ignoring historical
emissions)
 Countries over achieving in their first period
commitments were allowed to ‘bank’ their unused
allowances for use in the subsequent period
 The EU suggested a ‘bubble’ commitment
 The US was obliged to cut back emissions more than
other countries
Cost Estimates and Emissions
 Exceptions to Kyoto Targets :Belarus, Malta, and Turkey are
Annex I Parties but do not have Kyoto targets. The US has a
Kyoto target of a 6% reduction relative to the 1990 level, but has
not ratified the treaty. But Emissions in the US have increased
11% since 1990 (2014)
 The Energy sector is found to be the largest source of emissions
 Due to non-US participation in the Kyoto treaty, cost estimates
were found to be much lower than those estimated in IPCC third
assessment report

The Unresolved issues in Kyoto
i. No details on specific policies and measures to
meet reduction targets
ii. No commitments from developing nations
iii. No details on implementing permits system
including penalties
iv. No details on funding mechanisms for
developing nations
v. ‘Bunkers fuels’ issue unresolved (i.e. The fuel
used in shipping and air travels)

Why U.S. won’t Ratify…
The United States has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol,
but it hasn't withdrawn from it, either
 The main objection of the US to ratification is regarding the
nature of participation of developing countries. The US will
not ratify the Protocol unless developing countries are also
required to keep greenhouse gas levels at targeted
minimums.
 The US feels that the Kyoto Protocol is unfair in that
countries like itself will be harmed economically because
they will have to make the most changes in order to adhere to
targeted levels of CO2 levels set forth in the Kyoto Protocol.

Recent Advances in Kyoto Protocol
 May 2011: Russia, Japan and Canada told the G8 they would not
join a second round of carbon cuts under the Kyoto Protocol at
United Nations talks and the US reiterated it would remain
outside the treaty. They argued that the Kyoto format did not
require developing countries, including China, the world’s No. 1
carbon emitter, to make targeted emission cuts
 Aug 2011: The European Union, the major developing countries,
and most African and Pacific island nations declared that they
would like to see the Kyoto process extended as a prelude to a
more ambitious, binding international agreement that would
take effect by 2020

United Nations Climate Change
Conference-Durban, 2011
 A primary focus of the conference was to secure a global climate
agreement as the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period
(2008–2012) was about to end
 Also expected to focus on finalising at least some of the Cancun
Agreements such as co-operation on clean technology, as well as
forest protection, adaptation to climate impacts, etc
 Canada's environment minister Peter Kent announced his
country's withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol
 Green fund : The conference led to progress regarding the
creation of a Green Climate Fund for which a management
framework was adopted. The fund is to distribute US$100bn per
year to help poor countries adapt to climate impact
Conclusion
 Even if the Kyoto Protocol was written more strictly,
making every nation reduce emissions by 10%,
including developed and developing nations, that
would not be enough.
 More action must be taken, such as decreased
emission limits and more carbon sinks, to have any
significant impact on slowing the increase of
atmospheric CO2 emissions.

Class Discussion
Global warming is a regional or an
international issue. What short
term, medium term and long term
strategies could be adopted to
reduce global warming?

Thank
You
Please contact for Queries
Asmatullah Junejo (PSP)
Senior Superintendent of Police, Rawalpindi
0300-7064608
asmatullahjunejo@hotmail.com

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Current Affairs

Thursday, January 28, 2016 1

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 3

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 8

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 9

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 12

 Reasons for its failure:

 Reasons for failure:

 Significance of SEATO and CENTO

 Military aid increased to $500 million by 1957

 Further strengthening of US-Pak relationship

 Became United States' "most-allied ally" in Asia.

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 16

 Pakistan’s growing friendship with communist China after

 The 1965 Indo-Pakistani War

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 18

 Political representation had been insufficient and regional

 Elections were held in the country in 1970 with the East

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 19

 The Chinese relationship was vital for the US as it was trying to

 With these concerns, the US administration neglected the

 The administration of President Richard M. Nixon was forced to

 It maintained that the crackdown was essentially an internal

 When Nixon learned that Indian war plans were designed to

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 26

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 27

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 28

 Also US aid was suspended because of Pakistan’s secret

 However after Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in Dec 1979,

 Now Pakistan had to fight a proxy war for the US.

 In September 1981 Reagan Administration negotiated a $3.2

 Congress added Section 620E to the FAA, giving the

 In 1981, the Reagan Administration sent the first of 40 F-16 jet

 Wilson negotiated a major weapons deal with Pakistan to

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 32

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 34

 Increase in Islamic fundamentalism

 Intensification of Kashmir proxy war.

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 37

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 38

 Elected twice as the 12th Prime Minister of Pakistan

 First term: 1 November 1990 to 18 July 1993

 Second term: 17 February 1997 to 12 October 1999.

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 41

i. Inclination towards establishing an ISLAMIC Society

ii. Allegations of having links with Al-Qaeda leader Osama

iii. Being alleged for “not cracking down on the Taliban as it

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 42

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 43

i. U.S. Aid Cut-off in 1990

ii. Non-delivery of some 71 F-16 fighter aircraft ordered in 1989

iii. In 1998, President Clinton imposed economic and military

sanctions on Pakistan: Section 102 of the Arms Export

iv. Any U.S. exports to Pakistan required a Commerce

 Bush’s main focus was the Middle East (Bahrain,

 More cooperation demanded from the Pakistan

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 45

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 47

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 48

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 49

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 50

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Current Affairs 54