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Double Exponential Smoothing Kompres
Double Exponential Smoothing Kompres
Double Exponential Smoothing Kompres
1
Dengan Data Acuan 24 Bulan
zigma=ratarata
702689
alpha 0.2
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan
- 1 ) + (Bt-1)
alpha 0.3
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan
level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN
St Bt Ft+m xt-ft error MAD
706480 0 706480 0 0 jan 2016
703359.20 -624.16 706480 -15604 15604 0.022586 feb 2016
704165.63 -338.04 702735.04 7152.96 7152.96 0.010076 mar 2016
700462.07 -1011.15 703827.59 -16827.59 16827.59 0.024494 apr 2016
699300.74 -1041.18 699450.93 -750.9271 750.93 0.001075 mei 2016
702607.65 -171.56 698259.56 21740.4406 21740.44 0.030195 jun 2016
715728.87 2486.99 702436.08 66463.9172 66463.92 0.08644 jul 2016
730752.69 4994.36 718215.86 62684.1417 62684.14 0.080272 ags 2016
708617.64 -431.52 735747.04 -135647.04 135647.04 0.226041 sep 2016
694648.89 -3138.97 708186.11 -67686.111 67686.11 0.105677 okt 2016
689003.14 -3640.33 691509.92 -12533.921 12533.92 0.01846 nov 2016
686290.25 -3454.84 685362.81 4637.18894 4637.19 0.006721 des 2016
693272.33 -1367.45 682835.41 52184.589 52184.59 0.070998 jan 2017
702195.90 690.75 691904.87 51455.1254 51455.13 0.06922 feb 2017
700021.32 117.68 702886.65 -14326.65 14326.65 0.020807 mar 2017
701187.20 327.32 700139.01 5240.99491 5240.99 0.00743 apr 2017
708011.62 1626.74 701514.53 32485.4714 32485.47 0.044258 mei 2017
705822.69 863.61 709638.37 -19078.366 19078.37 0.027627 jun 2017
705529.04 632.16 706686.30 -5786.3018 5786.30 0.008256 jul 2017
714024.96 2204.91 706161.20 39318.8019 39318.80 0.052743 ags 2017
716583.89 2275.71 716229.87 1770.13276 1770.13 0.002465 sep 2017
724799.69 3463.73 718859.61 29700.3921 29700.39 0.039677 okt 2017
726266.73 3064.39 728263.42 -9983.416 9983.42 0.013899 nov 2017
725208.90 2239.95 729331.13 -20611.126 20611.13 0.029082 des 2017
715314.28 -186.97 706686.30 -39910.302 39910.30 0.059856 jan 2018
712117.65 -788.90 706161.20 -6082.1981 6082.20 0.008688 feb 2018
727192.20 2383.79 716229.87 74416.1328 74416.13 0.094121 mar 2018
714529.99 -625.41 718859.61 -64513.608 64513.61 0.098592 apr 2018
718079.27 209.53 728263.42 6514.58397 6514.58 0.008866 may 2018
712162.24 -1015.78 729331.13 -41675.126 41675.13 0.060605 jun 2018
696052.76 -4034.52 727448.85 -91770.849 91770.85 0.144367 jul 2018
684572.19 -5523.73 715127.31 -60339.313 60339.31 0.092151 aug 2018
681400.17 -5053.39 711328.75 -20521.752 20521.75 0.029707 sep 2018
672388.62 -5845.02 729575.99 -73019.993 73019.99 0.111217 oct 2018
668565.88 -5440.57 713904.59 -37249.586 37249.59 0.05505 nov 2018
678280.25 -2409.58 718288.80 20611.2026 20611.20 0.027894 dec 2018
711146.45 jan 2019
total 1230294.26 1.78961
mad 35151.264479
mape 5.113%
ata Acuan 18 Bulan
QTY CPO ( liter ) level(Lt) trend(Tt) nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
Xt St Bt Ft+m xt-ft error MAD
706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480 0 0
690,876.00 690876 701798.80 -1404.36 706480 -15604 15604 0.022586
709,888.00 709888 703242.51 -549.94 700394.44 9493.56 9493.56 0.013373
687,000.00 687000 697984.80 -1962.27 702692.57 -15692.568 15692.57 0.022842
698,700.00 698700 696825.77 -1721.30 696022.53 2677.47288 2677.47 0.003832
720,000.00 720000 702573.13 519.30 695104.47 24895.5292 24895.53 0.034577
768,900.00 768900 722834.70 6441.98 703092.43 65807.571 65807.57 0.085587
780,900.00 780900 744763.68 11088.08 729276.68 51623.3189 51623.32 0.066107
600,100.00 600100 709126.23 -2929.58 755851.76 -155751.76 155751.76 0.259543
640,500.00 640500 686487.66 -8842.28 706196.65 -65696.651 65696.65 0.102571
678,976.00 678976 678044.56 -8722.52 677645.38 1330.62152 1330.62 0.00196
690,000.00 690000 675525.43 -6861.51 669322.04 20677.9562 20677.96 0.029968
735,020.00 735020 688570.75 -889.46 668663.93 66356.0745 66356.07 0.090278
743,360.00 743360 704384.90 4121.63 687681.29 55678.7106 55678.71 0.074901
688,560.00 688560 702522.57 2326.44 708506.53 -19946.528 19946.53 0.028968
705,380.00 705380 705008.31 2374.23 704849.01 530.992305 530.99 0.000753
734,000.00 734000 715367.77 4769.80 707382.53 26617.4673 26617.47 0.036264
690,560.00 690560 711264.30 2107.82 720137.57 -29577.572 29577.57 0.042831
700,900.00 700900 709630.48 985.33 713372.12 -12472.118 12472.12 0.017794
745,480.00 745480 721075.07 4123.10 710615.81 34864.1899 34864.19 0.046767
718,000.00 718000 723038.72 3475.27 725198.17 -7198.1714 7198.17 0.010025
748,560.00 748560 733127.79 5459.41 726513.99 22046.0112 22046.01 0.029451
718,280.00 718280 732495.04 3631.76 738587.20 -20307.202 20307.20 0.028272
708,720.00 708720 727904.76 1165.15 736126.80 -27406.803 27406.80 0.038671
666,776.00 666776 710381.74 -4441.30 713372.12 -46596.118 46596.12 0.069883
700,079.00 700079 704182.00 -4968.83 710615.81 -10536.81 10536.81 0.015051
790,646.00 790646 726643.02 3260.12 725198.17 65447.8286 65447.83 0.082778
654,346.00 654346 707236.00 -3540.02 726513.99 -72167.989 72167.99 0.11029
734,778.00 734778 713020.59 -742.64 738587.20 -3809.2021 3809.20 0.005184
687,656.00 687656 704891.36 -2958.61 736126.80 -48470.803 48470.80 0.070487
635,678.00 635678 682056.32 -8921.54 729069.91 -93391.912 93391.91 0.146917
654,788.00 654788 667630.75 -10572.75 705940.44 -51152.435 51152.44 0.078121
690,807.00 690807 667182.70 -7535.34 699213.17 -8406.173 8406.17 0.012169
656,556.00 656556 658719.95 -7813.56 729903.14 -73347.144 73347.14 0.111715
676,655.00 676655 658630.97 -5496.19 703695.98 -27040.98 27040.98 0.039963
738,900.00 738900 678864.35 2222.68 712277.95 26622.0524 26622.05 0.036029
701932.75
total 1279242.29 1.866509
mad 36549.77983
mape 5.333%
alpha 0.4
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan
error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan
Xt St Bt Ft+m
jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480
feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 700238.40 -2496.64 706480
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 702600.26 -553.24 697741.76
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 696028.21 -2960.76 702047.01
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 695320.47 -2059.56 693067.44
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 703956.55 2218.70 693260.91
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 731265.15 12254.66 706175.25
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 758471.88 18235.49 743519.81
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 706064.42 -10021.69 776707.37
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 673825.64 -18908.53 696042.74
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 664540.67 -15059.11 654917.11
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 665688.94 -8576.16 649481.56
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 688275.67 3889.00 657112.78
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 712642.80 12080.25 692164.67
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 710257.83 6294.16 724723.05
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 712083.20 4506.64 716552.00
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723553.91 7292.27 716589.84
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 714731.70 846.48 730846.17
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 709706.91 -1502.03 715578.19
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723114.93 4461.99 708204.88
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 723746.15 2929.68 727576.92
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 735429.50 6431.15 726675.84
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732428.39 2658.25 741860.65
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 724539.98 -1560.42 735086.64
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 700498.14 -10552.99 715578.19
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693998.69 -8931.57 708204.88
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727298.67 7961.05 727576.92
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 702894.23 -4985.15 726675.84
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 712656.65 913.88 741860.65
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 703204.72 -3232.45 735086.64
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 674254.56 -13519.53 722979.57
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 658356.22 -14471.05 689945.15
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 662653.90 -6963.56 685067.12
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 656036.60 -6825.06 735259.72
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 660188.93 -2434.10 697909.09
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 690212.90 10549.12 713570.53
jan 2019 699972.27
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.5
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan
BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
Xt St Bt Ft+m xt-ft
jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480 0
feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 697117.60 -5617.44 706480 -15604
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 702532.86 1002.18 691500.16 18387.84
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 693614.02 -4950.43 703535.05 -16535.046
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 694685.43 -1337.32 688663.58 10036.4157
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 709339.24 8257.36 693348.11 26651.8909
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 748378.64 26726.58 717596.60 51303.4003
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 778582.09 28812.70 775105.22 5794.77991
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 683017.92 -45813.42 807394.79 -207294.79
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 639181.80 -44627.04 637204.49 3295.50747
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 645207.50 -14235.39 594554.76 84421.2434
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 666388.84 7014.65 630972.11 59027.8901
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 710373.40 29196.59 673403.49 61616.5084
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 741843.99 30561.00 739569.99 3790.01266
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 722098.00 376.80 772404.99 -83844.99
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 712217.92 -5777.33 722474.79 -17094.795
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 722976.24 4144.06 706440.59 27559.4094
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705184.12 -9017.65 727120.30 -36560.296
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 699006.59 -7313.58 696166.47 4733.52812
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723965.20 12049.74 691693.01 53786.9878
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 725205.98 5564.36 736014.94 -18014.944
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 741444.13 11968.64 730770.34 17789.6632
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732333.11 -679.16 753412.77 -35132.773
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717893.58 -8935.38 731653.95 -22933.949
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 683648.88 -24120.97 696166.47 -29390.472
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 683858.56 -9522.58 691693.01 8385.98775
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 744121.99 32349.03 736014.94 54631.056
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703196.01 -11615.98 730770.34 -76424.337
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 717498.81 3935.29 753412.77 -18634.773
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 701167.24 -8224.83 731653.95 -43997.949
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 658583.77 -28840.02 708958.20 -73280.198
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644770.30 -19824.09 659527.91 -4739.9061
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 664462.69 3885.80 674335.98 16471.0167
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 661272.99 -359.50 776471.02 -119915.02
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 670358.40 5307.44 691580.03 -14925.028
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 713606.34 28071.74 721434.10 17465.8993
jan 2019 692942.41
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.7
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan
QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
Xt St Bt Ft+m xt-ft error MAD
706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480 0 0
690,876.00 690876 693996.80 -9986.56 706480 -15604 15604 0.022586
709,888.00 709888 704712.45 6575.21 684010.24 25877.76 25877.76 0.036453
687,000.00 687000 691857.53 -8968.89 711287.65 -24287.654 24287.65 0.035353
698,700.00 698700 695537.73 1150.38 682888.64 15811.3615 15811.36 0.02263
720,000.00 720000 715337.62 16069.99 696688.11 23311.8933 23311.89 0.032378
768,900.00 768900 761401.52 40065.12 731407.61 37492.388 37492.39 0.048761
780,900.00 780900 785013.33 26902.47 801466.64 -20566.641 20566.64 0.026337
600,100.00 600100 642463.16 -108659.64 811915.80 -211815.8 211815.80 0.352968
640,500.00 640500 619160.70 -40373.89 533803.52 106696.482 106696.48 0.166583
678,976.00 678976 658938.16 23747.19 578786.81 100189.189 100189.19 0.147559
690,000.00 690000 688537.07 28428.56 682685.35 7314.6496 7314.65 0.010601
735,020.00 735020 731409.13 39983.36 716965.63 18054.3659 18054.37 0.024563
743,360.00 743360 748966.50 22042.57 771392.49 -28032.485 28032.49 0.037711
688,560.00 688560 705049.81 -30724.83 771009.06 -82449.065 82449.06 0.119741
705,380.00 705380 699169.00 -10849.62 674324.98 31055.0207 31055.02 0.044026
734,000.00 734000 724863.88 18385.98 688319.38 45680.6246 45680.62 0.062235
690,560.00 690560 701097.97 -15335.53 743249.85 -52689.854 52689.85 0.0763
700,900.00 700900 697872.49 -5647.49 685762.44 15137.5566 15137.56 0.021597
745,480.00 745480 734829.00 28435.71 692225.00 53255.0026 53255.00 0.071437
718,000.00 718000 727052.94 -533.70 763264.71 -45264.71 45264.71 0.063043
748,560.00 748560 744151.85 13572.38 726519.24 22040.762 22040.76 0.029444
718,280.00 718280 726168.85 -11671.92 757724.23 -39444.231 39444.23 0.054915
708,720.00 708720 709875.38 -15369.15 714496.92 -5776.9219 5776.92 0.008151
666,776.00 666776 672322.05 -33116.50 694506.23 -27730.23 27730.23 0.041589
700,079.00 700079 687904.31 5842.51 639205.54 60873.4556 60873.46 0.086952
790,646.00 790646 771266.16 67857.99 693746.82 96899.1811 96899.18 0.122557
654,346.00 654346 691301.63 -50400.03 839124.15 -184778.15 184778.15 0.282386
734,778.00 734778 716002.72 9680.87 640901.60 93876.4 93876.40 0.127762
687,656.00 687656 695261.52 -14656.79 725683.59 -38027.586 38027.59 0.0553
635,678.00 635678 644663.35 -43409.90 680604.73 -44926.728 44926.73 0.070675
654,788.00 654788 644081.09 -9147.78 601253.45 53534.5494 53534.55 0.081759
690,807.00 690807 679632.26 26611.38 634933.31 55873.6933 55873.69 0.080882
656,556.00 656556 666493.53 -5188.71 706243.64 -49687.642 49687.64 0.075679
676,655.00 676655 673584.96 4635.41 661304.82 15350.182 15350.18 0.022685
738,900.00 738900 726764.07 43470.37 678220.37 60679.6303 60679.63 0.082122
770234.44
total 1810085.84 2.64572
mad 51716.73838
mape 7.559%
alpha 0.9
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan
error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan
Xt St Bt Ft+m
jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480
feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 692436.40 -12639.24 706480
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 706878.92 11734.34 679797.16
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 690161.33 -13872.40 718613.26
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 696458.89 4280.57 676288.93
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 718073.95 19881.61 700739.46
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 765805.56 44946.61 737955.55
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 783885.22 20766.36 810752.16
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 620555.16 -144920.42 804651.57
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 624013.47 -11379.56 475634.74
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 672341.79 42357.53 612633.92
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 692469.93 22351.08 714699.32
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 733000.10 38712.26 714821.01
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 746195.24 15746.85 771712.36
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 695898.21 -43692.64 761942.08
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700062.56 -621.35 652205.57
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 730544.12 27371.27 699441.21
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 697295.54 -27186.60 757915.39
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697820.89 -2245.84 670108.94
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 740489.51 38177.17 695575.05
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 724066.67 -10962.84 778666.67
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 745014.38 17756.66 713103.83
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 722729.10 -18281.08 762771.04
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708292.80 -14820.78 704448.02
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 669445.60 -36444.56 670108.94
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693371.20 17888.59 695575.05
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 782707.38 82191.42 778666.67
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 675401.28 -88356.35 713103.83
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 720004.69 31307.44 762771.04
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 694021.61 -20254.03 704448.02
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 639486.96 -51106.59 693472.02
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 648147.24 2683.59 633001.04
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 686809.38 35064.29 711259.79
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 663087.77 -17843.02 864898.79
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 673513.97 7599.28 587044.93
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 733121.33 54406.54 751312.13
jan 2019 673767.58
total
mad
mape
error |error| error mape
xt-ft error MAD
0 0
-15604 15604 0.022586
30090.84 30090.84 0.042388
-31613.256 31613.26 0.046016
22411.0716 22411.07 0.032075
19260.5364 19260.54 0.026751
30944.4484 30944.45 0.040245
-29852.164 29852.16 0.038228
-204551.57 204551.57 0.340862
164865.26 164865.26 0.257401
66342.0827 66342.08 0.097709
-24699.322 24699.32 0.035796
20198.9883 20198.99 0.027481
-28352.361 28352.36 0.038141
-73382.084 73382.08 0.106573
53174.4319 53174.43 0.075384
34558.7936 34558.79 0.047083
-67355.393 67355.39 0.097537
30791.0567 30791.06 0.043931
49904.9457 49904.95 0.066943
-60666.671 60666.67 0.084494
35456.1707 35456.17 0.047366
-44491.043 44491.04 0.061941
4271.98036 4271.98 0.006028
-3332.9433 3332.94 0.004999
4503.94573 4503.95 0.006433
11979.3286 11979.33 0.015151
-58757.829 58757.83 0.089796
-27993.043 27993.04 0.038097
-16792.02 16792.02 0.024419
-57794.021 57794.02 0.090917
21786.9558 21786.96 0.033273
-20452.791 20452.79 0.029607
-208342.79 208342.79 0.317327
89610.0686 89610.07 0.132431
-12412.131 12412.13 0.016798
1676596.35 2.482209
47902.75273
7.092%
alpha 0.1
Dengan Data Acuan 24 Bulan
nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
706480 0 0 jan 2016 706,480.00
706480 -15604 15604 0.0225858 feb 2016 690,876.00
691500.16 18387.84 18387.84 0.0259025 mar 2016 709,888.00
703535.05 -16535.046 16535.05 0.0240685 apr 2016 687,000.00
688663.58 10036.4157 10036.42 0.0143644 mei 2016 698,700.00
693348.11 26651.8909 26651.89 0.0370165 jun 2016 720,000.00
717596.60 51303.4003 51303.40 0.0667231 jul 2016 768,900.00
775105.22 5794.77991 5794.78 0.0074206 ags 2016 780,900.00
807394.79 -207294.79 207294.79 0.3454337 sep 2016 600,100.00
637204.49 3295.50747 3295.51 0.0051452 okt 2016 640,500.00
594554.76 84421.2434 84421.24 0.1243361 nov 2016 678,976.00
630972.11 59027.8901 59027.89 0.0855477 des 2016 690,000.00
673403.49 61616.5084 61616.51 0.0838297 jan 2017 735,020.00
739569.99 3790.01266 3790.01 0.0050985 feb 2017 743,360.00
772404.99 -83844.99 83844.99 0.1217686 mar 2017 688,560.00
722474.79 -17094.795 17094.79 0.0242349 apr 2017 705,380.00
706440.59 27559.4094 27559.41 0.0375469 mei 2017 734,000.00
727120.30 -36560.296 36560.30 0.052943 jun 2017 690,560.00
696166.47 4733.52812 4733.53 0.0067535 jul 2017 700,900.00
691693.01 53786.9878 53786.99 0.0721508 ags 2017 745,480.00
736014.94 -18014.944 18014.94 0.0250905 sep 2017 718,000.00
730770.34 17789.6632 17789.66 0.0237652 okt 2017 748,560.00
753412.77 -35132.773 35132.77 0.0489124 nov 2017 718,280.00
731653.95 -22933.949 22933.95 0.0323597 des 2017 708,720.00
696166.47 -29390.472 29390.47 0.0440785 jan 2018 666,776.00
881210.66 1.2929977 total
38313.50694 mad
5.622% mape
nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
690876 0 0 feb 2016 690,876.00
690876 19012 19012 0.0267817 mar 2016 709,888.00
709127.52 -22127.52 22127.52 0.0322089 apr 2016 687,000.00
694729.42 3970.5792 3970.58 0.0056828 mei 2016 698,700.00
697419.59 22580.4104 22580.41 0.0313617 jun 2016 720,000.00
719404.60 49495.3951 49495.40 0.0643717 jul 2016 768,900.00
775356.95 5543.04676 5543.05 0.0070983 ags 2016 780,900.00
806933.39 -206833.39 206833.39 0.3446649 sep 2016 600,100.00
636623.94 3876.05631 3876.06 0.0060516 okt 2016 640,500.00
594135.55 84840.4543 84840.45 0.1249535 nov 2016 678,976.00
630768.35 59231.65 59231.65 0.085843 des 2016 690,000.00
673359.27 61660.7342 61660.73 0.0838899 jan 2017 735,020.00
739605.50 3754.50362 3754.50 0.0050507 feb 2017 743,360.00
772459.61 -83899.61 83899.61 0.1218479 mar 2017 688,560.00
722517.40 -17137.396 17137.40 0.0242953 apr 2017 705,380.00
706463.05 27536.9524 27536.95 0.0375163 mei 2017 734,000.00
727126.61 -36566.611 36566.61 0.0529521 jun 2017 690,560.00
696164.06 4735.94337 4735.94 0.0067569 jul 2017 700,900.00
691687.97 53792.0256 53792.03 0.0721576 ags 2017 745,480.00
736010.67 -18010.671 18010.67 0.0250845 sep 2017 718,000.00
730767.91 17792.0922 17792.09 0.0237684 okt 2017 748,560.00
753411.96 -35131.956 35131.96 0.0489112 nov 2017 718,280.00
731654.07 -22934.071 22934.07 0.0323598 des 2017 708,720.00
708958.65 -42182.651 42182.65 0.0632636 jan 2018 666,776.00
659528.33 40550.6709 40550.67 0.057923 feb 2018 700,079.00
902645.72 1.3268724 total
39245.466031 mad
5.769% mape
nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
709888 0 0 mar 2016 709,888.00
709888 -22888 22888 0.0333159 apr 2016 687,000.00
687915.52 10784.48 10784.48 0.0154351 mei 2016 698,700.00
690028.94 29971.0592 29971.06 0.0416265 jun 2016 720,000.00
714443.89 54456.1096 54456.11 0.0708234 jul 2016 768,900.00
773154.07 7745.93027 7745.93 0.0099192 ags 2016 780,900.00
806626.68 -206526.68 206526.68 0.3441538 sep 2016 600,100.00
637186.12 3313.88449 3313.88 0.0051739 okt 2016 640,500.00
594842.89 84133.1104 84133.11 0.1239118 nov 2016 678,976.00
631279.12 58720.881 58720.88 0.0851027 des 2016 690,000.00
673607.53 61412.4721 61412.47 0.0835521 jan 2017 735,020.00
739659.38 3700.61858 3700.62 0.0049782 feb 2017 743,360.00
772416.35 -83856.346 83856.35 0.1217851 mar 2017 688,560.00
722450.85 -17070.847 17070.85 0.0242009 apr 2017 705,380.00
706411.14 27588.8576 27588.86 0.037587 mei 2017 734,000.00
727099.25 -36539.249 36539.25 0.0529125 jun 2017 690,560.00
696156.36 4743.63757 4743.64 0.0067679 jul 2017 700,900.00
691690.92 53789.0828 53789.08 0.0721536 ags 2017 745,480.00
736016.81 -18016.809 18016.81 0.025093 sep 2017 718,000.00
730773.11 17786.8856 17786.89 0.0237615 okt 2017 748,560.00
753414.92 -35134.915 35134.92 0.0489153 nov 2017 718,280.00
731655.07 -22935.066 22935.07 0.0323613 des 2017 708,720.00
708958.50 -42182.503 42182.50 0.0632634 jan 2018 666,776.00
659527.78 40551.2236 40551.22 0.0579238 feb 2018 700,079.00
674335.73 116310.274 116310.27 0.1471079 mar 2018 790,646.00
943848.64 1.3847179 total
41036.897576 mad
6.021% mape
nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
687000 0 0 apr 2016 687,000.00
687000 11700 11700 0.0167454 mei 2016 698,700.00
698232.00 21768 21768 0.0302333 jun 2016 720,000.00
723341.28 45558.72 45558.72 0.0592518 jul 2016 768,900.00
779126.13 1773.8688 1773.87 0.0022716 ags 2016 780,900.00
809278.66 -209178.66 209178.66 0.348573 sep 2016 600,100.00
637555.36 2944.64145 2944.64 0.0045974 okt 2016 640,500.00
594166.11 84809.8929 84809.89 0.1249085 nov 2016 678,976.00
630427.57 59572.432 59572.43 0.0863369 des 2016 690,000.00
672992.63 62027.3721 62027.37 0.0843887 jan 2017 735,020.00
739360.51 3999.49423 3999.49 0.0053803 feb 2017 743,360.00
772351.47 -83791.475 83791.47 0.1216909 mar 2017 688,560.00
722502.93 -17122.932 17122.93 0.0242748 apr 2017 705,380.00
706491.26 27508.7411 27508.74 0.0374778 mei 2017 734,000.00
727161.74 -36601.737 36601.74 0.053003 jun 2017 690,560.00
696189.30 4710.69748 4710.70 0.0067209 jul 2017 700,900.00
691700.18 53779.82 53779.82 0.0721412 ags 2017 745,480.00
736013.27 -18013.266 18013.27 0.0250881 sep 2017 718,000.00
730765.72 17794.2752 17794.28 0.0237713 okt 2017 748,560.00
753408.65 -35128.647 35128.65 0.0489066 nov 2017 718,280.00
731651.50 -22931.503 22931.50 0.0323562 des 2017 708,720.00
708957.30 -42181.305 42181.30 0.0632616 jan 2018 666,776.00
659527.96 40551.0446 40551.04 0.0579235 feb 2018 700,079.00
674336.39 116309.608 116309.61 0.1471071 mar 2018 790,646.00
776471.43 -122125.43 122125.43 0.1866374 apr 2018 654,346.00
1019758.14 1.47641 total
44337.310306 mad
6.419% mape
nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
698700 0 0 mei 2016 698,700.00
698700 21300 21300 0.0295833 jun 2016 720,000.00
719148.00 49752 49752 0.0647054 jul 2016 768,900.00
774577.92 6322.08 6322.08 0.0080959 ags 2016 780,900.00
806225.84 -206125.84 206125.84 0.3434858 sep 2016 600,100.00
636199.70 4300.29773 4300.30 0.006714 okt 2016 640,500.00
593977.36 84998.6444 84998.64 0.1251865 nov 2016 678,976.00
630773.53 59226.471 59226.47 0.0858355 des 2016 690,000.00
673427.93 61592.0721 61592.07 0.0837965 jan 2017 735,020.00
739674.83 3685.16661 3685.17 0.0049574 feb 2017 743,360.00
772504.26 -83944.256 83944.26 0.1219128 mar 2017 688,560.00
722536.09 -17156.092 17156.09 0.0243218 apr 2017 705,380.00
706464.63 27535.3661 27535.37 0.0375141 mei 2017 734,000.00
727120.78 -36560.782 36560.78 0.0529437 jun 2017 690,560.00
696157.36 4742.63998 4742.64 0.0067665 jul 2017 700,900.00
691683.34 53796.6585 53796.66 0.0721638 ags 2017 745,480.00
736008.53 -18008.531 18008.53 0.0250815 sep 2017 718,000.00
730767.54 17792.4642 17792.46 0.0237689 okt 2017 748,560.00
753412.42 -35132.425 35132.42 0.0489119 nov 2017 718,280.00
731654.71 -22934.707 22934.71 0.0323607 des 2017 708,720.00
708959.13 -42183.126 42183.13 0.0632643 jan 2018 666,776.00
659528.57 40550.4321 40550.43 0.0579227 feb 2018 700,079.00
674336.30 116309.7 116309.70 0.1471072 mar 2018 790,646.00
776471.09 -122125.09 122125.09 0.1866369 apr 2018 654,346.00
691579.97 43198.0316 43198.03 0.0587906 may 2018 734,778.00
1136074.83 1.653037 total
49394.557997 mad
7.187% mape
nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
720000 0 0 jun 2016 720,000.00
720000 48900 48900 0.0635973 jul 2016 768,900.00
766944.00 13956 13956 0.0178717 ags 2016 780,900.00
797945.76 -197845.76 197845.76 0.329688 sep 2016 600,100.00
630641.99 9858.0096 9858.01 0.0153911 okt 2016 640,500.00
591509.37 87466.634 87466.63 0.1288214 nov 2016 678,976.00
630429.90 59570.0955 59570.10 0.0863335 des 2016 690,000.00
674057.75 60962.2457 60962.25 0.0829396 jan 2017 735,020.00
740467.30 2892.69736 2892.70 0.0038914 feb 2017 743,360.00
773076.49 -84516.493 84516.49 0.1227438 mar 2017 688,560.00
722814.23 -17434.232 17434.23 0.0247161 apr 2017 705,380.00
706525.00 27474.9962 27475.00 0.0374319 mei 2017 734,000.00
727072.31 -36512.311 36512.31 0.0528735 jun 2017 690,560.00
696082.80 4817.19783 4817.20 0.0068729 jul 2017 700,900.00
691625.19 53854.8102 53854.81 0.0722418 ags 2017 745,480.00
735977.88 -17977.876 17977.88 0.0250388 sep 2017 718,000.00
730758.92 17801.0844 17801.08 0.0237804 okt 2017 748,560.00
753415.72 -35135.722 35135.72 0.0489165 nov 2017 718,280.00
731661.58 -22941.584 22941.58 0.0323704 des 2017 708,720.00
708964.96 -42188.959 42188.96 0.0632731 jan 2018 666,776.00
659531.88 40547.1164 40547.12 0.0579179 feb 2018 700,079.00
674337.42 116308.585 116308.58 0.1471058 mar 2018 790,646.00
776470.92 -122124.92 122124.92 0.1866366 apr 2018 654,346.00
691579.35 43198.6509 43198.65 0.0587914 may 2018 734,778.00
721433.44 -33777.436 33777.44 0.0491197 jun 2018 687,656.00
1164285.98 1.6892449 total
50621.129506 mad
7.345% mape
nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
768900 0 0 jul 2016 768,900.00
768900 -12000 12000 0.0153669 ags 2016 780,900.00
780420.00 180320 180320 0.3004833 sep 2016 600,100.00
611632.80 -28867.2 28867.20 0.0450698 okt 2016 640,500.00
578750.11 -100225.89 100225.89 0.1476133 nov 2016 678,976.00
624763.96 -65236.044 65236.04 0.094545 des 2016 690,000.00
673268.87 -61751.13 61751.13 0.0840129 jan 2017 735,020.00
741913.24 -1446.7579 1446.76 0.0019462 feb 2017 743,360.00
774895.82 86335.8239 86335.82 0.1253861 mar 2017 688,560.00
724127.96 18747.96 18747.96 0.0265785 apr 2017 705,380.00
707163.55 -26836.451 26836.45 0.0365619 mei 2017 734,000.00
727210.91 36650.9068 36650.91 0.0530742 jun 2017 690,560.00
695971.52 -4928.4765 4928.48 0.0070316 jul 2017 700,900.00
691454.02 -54025.978 54025.98 0.0724714 ags 2017 745,480.00
735844.37 17844.3732 17844.37 0.0248529 sep 2017 718,000.00
730688.54 -17871.461 17871.46 0.0238745 okt 2017 748,560.00
753395.93 35115.9317 35115.93 0.0488889 nov 2017 718,280.00
731669.15 22949.1532 22949.15 0.0323811 des 2017 708,720.00
708980.75 42204.7467 42204.75 0.0632967 jan 2018 666,776.00
659545.28 -40533.725 40533.72 0.0578988 feb 2018 700,079.00
674345.03 -116300.97 116300.97 0.1470961 mar 2018 790,646.00
776473.48 122127.479 122127.48 0.1866405 apr 2018 654,346.00
691578.97 -43199.033 43199.03 0.058792 may 2018 734,778.00
721432.01 33776.0139 33776.01 0.0491176 jun 2018 687,656.00
692940.67 57262.6678 57262.67 0.0900812 jul 2018 635,678.00
1169295.50 1.7029802 total
50838.934971 mad
7.404% mape
nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
780900 0 0 ags 2016 780,900.00
780900 180800 180800 0.3012831 sep 2016 600,100.00
607332.00 -33168 33168 0.0517845 okt 2016 640,500.00
574085.28 -104890.72 104890.72 0.1544837 nov 2016 678,976.00
621632.85 -68367.149 68367.15 0.0990828 des 2016 690,000.00
671878.45 -63141.547 63141.55 0.0859045 jan 2017 735,020.00
741719.65 -1640.3491 1640.35 0.0022067 feb 2017 743,360.00
775250.66 86690.6556 86690.66 0.1259014 mar 2017 688,560.00
724574.42 19194.4215 19194.42 0.0272115 apr 2017 705,380.00
707485.94 -26514.064 26514.06 0.0361227 mei 2017 734,000.00
727367.60 36807.605 36807.60 0.0533011 jun 2017 690,560.00
696005.53 -4894.4653 4894.47 0.0069831 jul 2017 700,900.00
691426.71 -54053.286 54053.29 0.072508 ags 2017 745,480.00
735802.37 17802.3688 17802.37 0.0247944 sep 2017 718,000.00
730655.78 -17904.222 17904.22 0.0239182 okt 2017 748,560.00
753378.66 35098.6615 35098.66 0.0488649 nov 2017 718,280.00
731664.30 22944.2968 22944.30 0.0323743 des 2017 708,720.00
708982.60 42206.6041 42206.60 0.0632995 jan 2018 666,776.00
659549.15 -40529.85 40529.85 0.0578933 feb 2018 700,079.00
674348.31 -116297.69 116297.69 0.147092 mar 2018 790,646.00
776475.35 122129.347 122129.35 0.1866434 apr 2018 654,346.00
691579.59 -43198.405 43198.41 0.0587911 may 2018 734,778.00
721431.92 33775.9201 33775.92 0.0491175 jun 2018 687,656.00
692940.32 57262.3189 57262.32 0.0900807 jul 2018 635,678.00
629742.44 -25045.556 25045.56 0.0382499 aug 2018 654,788.00
1229311.94 1.7996423 total
53448.345321 mad
7.825% mape
nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
600100 0 0 sep 2016 600,100.00
600100 -40400 40400 0.0630757 okt 2016 640,500.00
638884.00 -40092 40092 0.0590477 nov 2016 678,976.00
691916.32 1916.32 1916.32 0.0027773 des 2016 690,000.00
719053.77 -15966.227 15966.23 0.0217222 jan 2017 735,020.00
762668.60 19308.5957 19308.60 0.0259748 feb 2017 743,360.00
778167.43 89607.4304 89607.43 0.1301374 mar 2017 688,560.00
719228.29 13848.2894 13848.29 0.0196324 apr 2017 705,380.00
700759.25 -33240.751 33240.75 0.0452871 mei 2017 734,000.00
722510.30 31950.303 31950.30 0.0462672 jun 2017 690,560.00
693644.62 -7255.3844 7255.38 0.0103515 jul 2017 700,900.00
690914.28 -54565.721 54565.72 0.0731954 ags 2017 745,480.00
736213.80 18213.8039 18213.80 0.0253674 sep 2017 718,000.00
731288.64 -17271.356 17271.36 0.0230728 okt 2017 748,560.00
753872.27 35592.2687 35592.27 0.0495521 nov 2017 718,280.00
731924.50 23204.5016 23204.50 0.0327414 des 2017 708,720.00
709055.77 42279.7742 42279.77 0.0634093 jan 2018 666,776.00
659521.16 -40557.835 40557.84 0.0579332 feb 2018 700,079.00
674289.94 -116356.06 116356.06 0.1471658 mar 2018 790,646.00
776425.83 122079.833 122079.83 0.1865677 apr 2018 654,346.00
691551.45 -43226.55 43226.55 0.0588294 may 2018 734,778.00
721422.45 33766.4547 33766.45 0.0491037 jun 2018 687,656.00
692941.73 57263.7329 57263.73 0.0900829 jul 2018 635,678.00
629747.70 -25040.3 25040.30 0.0382418 aug 2018 654,788.00
624950.60 -65856.405 65856.40 0.0953326 sep 2018 690,807.00
923003.49 1.3195364 total
40130.58656 mad
5.737% mape
nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
640500 0 0 okt 2016 640,500.00
640500 -38476 38476 0.0566677 nov 2016 678,976.00
677436.96 -12563.04 12563.04 0.0182073 des 2016 690,000.00
703348.84 -31671.162 31671.16 0.0430888 jan 2017 735,020.00
752127.21 8767.20794 8767.21 0.011794 feb 2017 743,360.00
773486.36 84926.3609 84926.36 0.1233391 mar 2017 688,560.00
718576.53 13196.5322 13196.53 0.0187084 apr 2017 705,380.00
701953.85 -32046.151 32046.15 0.0436596 mei 2017 734,000.00
724013.39 33453.3902 33453.39 0.0484439 jun 2017 690,560.00
694729.99 -6170.0138 6170.01 0.008803 jul 2017 700,900.00
691441.83 -54038.17 54038.17 0.0724878 ags 2017 745,480.00
736328.31 18328.3082 18328.31 0.0255269 sep 2017 718,000.00
731196.71 -17363.291 17363.29 0.0231956 okt 2017 748,560.00
753730.85 35450.8538 35450.85 0.0493552 nov 2017 718,280.00
731814.20 23094.2045 23094.20 0.0325858 des 2017 708,720.00
708997.63 42221.6311 42221.63 0.0633221 jan 2018 666,776.00
659504.81 -40574.185 40574.19 0.0579566 feb 2018 700,079.00
674296.19 -116349.81 116349.81 0.1471579 mar 2018 790,646.00
776438.88 122092.877 122092.88 0.1865876 apr 2018 654,346.00
691562.51 -43215.486 43215.49 0.0588143 may 2018 734,778.00
721428.74 33772.7437 33772.74 0.0491128 jun 2018 687,656.00
692943.85 57265.8479 57265.85 0.0900863 jul 2018 635,678.00
629747.38 -25040.616 25040.62 0.0382423 aug 2018 654,788.00
624949.42 -65857.579 65857.58 0.0953343 sep 2018 690,807.00
668350.36 11794.3636 11794.36 0.017964 oct 2018 656,556.00
955935.46 1.3624773 total
41562.411181 mad
5.924% mape
nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
678976 0 0 nov 2016 678,976.00
678976 -11024 11024 0.0159768 des 2016 690,000.00
689559.04 -45460.96 45460.96 0.06185 jan 2017 735,020.00
737170.20 -6189.7984 6189.80 0.0083268 feb 2017 743,360.00
763446.99 74886.9937 74886.99 0.1087588 mar 2017 688,560.00
714118.39 8738.39277 8738.39 0.0123882 apr 2017 705,380.00
701333.13 -32666.869 32666.87 0.0445053 mei 2017 734,000.00
725151.10 34591.0991 34591.10 0.0500914 jun 2017 690,560.00
696161.49 -4738.5093 4738.51 0.0067606 jul 2017 700,900.00
692475.51 -53004.489 53004.49 0.0711012 ags 2017 745,480.00
736830.73 18830.7348 18830.73 0.0262267 sep 2017 718,000.00
731305.76 -17254.24 17254.24 0.0230499 okt 2017 748,560.00
753643.30 35363.2964 35363.30 0.0492333 nov 2017 718,280.00
731679.52 22959.5243 22959.52 0.0323958 des 2017 708,720.00
708892.59 42116.5867 42116.59 0.0631645 jan 2018 666,776.00
659449.44 -40629.56 40629.56 0.0580357 feb 2018 700,079.00
674280.62 -116365.38 116365.38 0.1471776 mar 2018 790,646.00
776444.83 122098.832 122098.83 0.1865967 apr 2018 654,346.00
691574.94 -43203.064 43203.06 0.0587974 may 2018 734,778.00
721439.28 33783.2807 33783.28 0.0491282 jun 2018 687,656.00
692949.84 57271.8375 57271.84 0.0900957 jul 2018 635,678.00
629749.40 -25038.601 25038.60 0.0382392 aug 2018 654,788.00
624949.12 -65857.88 65857.88 0.0953347 sep 2018 690,807.00
668349.24 11793.245 11793.24 0.0179623 oct 2018 656,556.00
660913.13 -15741.873 15741.87 0.0232643 nov 2018 676,655.00
923867.17 1.3151967 total
40168.137862 mad
5.718% mape
nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
690000 0 0 des 2016 690,000.00
690000 -45020 45020 0.06125 jan 2017 735,020.00
733219.20 -10140.8 10140.8 0.0136418 feb 2017 743,360.00
759161.57 70601.568 70601.57 0.1025351 mar 2017 688,560.00
711241.95 5861.95072 5861.95 0.0083103 apr 2017 705,380.00
700055.80 -33944.198 33944.20 0.0462455 mei 2017 734,000.00
724973.25 34413.2533 34413.25 0.0498338 jun 2017 690,560.00
696487.46 -4412.5372 4412.54 0.0062955 jul 2017 700,900.00
692885.66 -52594.34 52594.34 0.070551 ags 2017 745,480.00
737126.90 19126.9013 19126.90 0.0266391 sep 2017 718,000.00
731449.71 -17110.287 17110.29 0.0228576 okt 2017 748,560.00
753674.54 35394.5413 35394.54 0.0492768 nov 2017 718,280.00
731654.44 22934.4377 22934.44 0.0323604 des 2017 708,720.00
708854.00 42077.9986 42078.00 0.0631066 jan 2018 666,776.00
659419.34 -40659.656 40659.66 0.0580787 feb 2018 700,079.00
674264.76 -116381.24 116381.24 0.1471977 mar 2018 790,646.00
776440.37 122094.371 122094.37 0.1865899 apr 2018 654,346.00
691576.64 -43201.358 43201.36 0.0587951 may 2018 734,778.00
721442.84 33786.8398 33786.84 0.0491333 jun 2018 687,656.00
692952.86 57274.8565 57274.86 0.0901004 jul 2018 635,678.00
629751.11 -25036.885 25036.89 0.0382366 aug 2018 654,788.00
624949.70 -65857.303 65857.30 0.0953339 sep 2018 690,807.00
668349.16 11793.1588 11793.16 0.0179622 oct 2018 656,556.00
660912.81 -15742.194 15742.19 0.0232647 nov 2018 676,655.00
675664.86 -63235.145 63235.14 0.0855801 dec 2018 738,900.00
925460.68 1.3175962 total
40237.420752 mad
5.729% mape
nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
735020 0 0 jan 2017 735,020.00
735020 -8340 8340 0.0112193 feb 2017 743,360.00
743026.40 54466.4 54466.4 0.0791019 mar 2017 688,560.00
693741.06 -11638.944 11638.94 0.0165002 apr 2017 705,380.00
688308.94 -45691.062 45691.06 0.0622494 mei 2017 734,000.00
719756.87 29196.8734 29196.87 0.04228 jun 2017 690,560.00
695761.17 -5138.827 5138.83 0.0073318 jul 2017 700,900.00
694216.87 -51263.129 51263.13 0.0687653 ags 2017 745,480.00
738801.88 20801.8762 20801.88 0.028972 sep 2017 718,000.00
732659.20 -15900.797 15900.80 0.0212418 okt 2017 748,560.00
754262.42 35982.4207 35982.42 0.0500953 nov 2017 718,280.00
731782.04 23062.0363 23062.04 0.0325404 des 2017 708,720.00
708751.55 41975.5495 41975.55 0.062953 jan 2018 666,776.00
659261.76 -40817.243 40817.24 0.0583038 feb 2018 700,079.00
674141.85 -116504.15 116504.15 0.1473531 mar 2018 790,646.00
776375.58 122029.579 122029.58 0.1864909 apr 2018 654,346.00
691558.42 -43219.577 43219.58 0.0588199 may 2018 734,778.00
721449.81 33793.8082 33793.81 0.0491435 jun 2018 687,656.00
692967.39 57289.3915 57289.39 0.0901233 jul 2018 635,678.00
629763.44 -25024.556 25024.56 0.0382178 aug 2018 654,788.00
624956.70 -65850.295 65850.30 0.0953237 sep 2018 690,807.00
668351.52 11795.5157 11795.52 0.0179657 oct 2018 656,556.00
660912.45 -15742.546 15742.55 0.0232652 nov 2018 676,655.00
675663.55 -63236.454 63236.45 0.0855819 dec 2018 738,900.00
741676.11 jan 2019
938761.03 1.3338392 total
40815.69707 mad
5.799% mape
TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
706480 706480 0 706480 0 0
690876 695557.20 -7645.96 706480 -15604 15604 0.0225858
709888 703294.97 3122.65 687911.24 21976.76 21976.76 0.0309581
687000 692825.29 -6391.98 706417.62 -19417.624 19417.62 0.0282644
698700 695019.99 -381.30 686433.30 12266.6962 12266.70 0.0175565
720000 712391.61 12045.74 694638.69 25361.3113 25361.31 0.035224
768900 755561.20 33832.44 724437.35 44462.6533 44462.65 0.0578263
780900 783448.09 29670.55 789393.64 -8493.6442 8493.64 0.0108767
600100 664005.59 -74708.58 813118.65 -213018.65 213018.65 0.3549719
640500 625139.10 -49619.12 589297.01 51202.9885 51202.99 0.0799422
678976 647939.20 1074.33 575519.98 103456.015 103456.02 0.1523707
690000 677704.06 21157.70 649013.52 40986.4756 40986.48 0.0594007
735020 724172.53 38875.24 698861.76 36158.2407 36158.24 0.0491935
743360 749266.33 29228.23 763047.77 -19687.768 19687.77 0.0264848
688560 715540.37 -14839.70 778494.56 -89934.564 89934.56 0.1306125
705380 703976.20 -12546.83 700700.67 4679.33343 4679.33 0.0066338
734000 721228.81 8312.78 691429.37 42570.6293 42570.63 0.0579981
690560 702254.48 -10788.20 729541.59 -38981.59 38981.59 0.0564492
700900 698069.88 -6165.68 691466.28 9433.72307 9433.72 0.0134594
745480 729407.26 20086.46 691904.21 53575.7928 53575.79 0.0718675
718000 727448.12 4654.54 749493.72 -31493.725 31493.72 0.0438631
748560 743622.80 12718.64 732102.65 16457.3451 16457.35 0.0219853
718280 729698.43 -5931.47 756341.43 -38061.433 38061.43 0.0529897
708720 713234.09 -13304.48 723766.96 -15046.964 15046.96 0.0212312
666776 691466.28 -24690.277 24690.28 0.0370293
total 952327.93 1.4027456
mad 41405.561957
mape 6.099%
TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
690876 690876 0 690876 0 0
709888 704184.40 9315.88 690876 19012 19012 0.0267817
687000 694950.08 -3669.26 713500.28 -26500.28 26500.28 0.0385739
698700 696474.25 -33.86 691280.83 7419.1732 7419.17 0.0106185
720000 712932.12 11510.35 696440.39 23559.6143 23559.61 0.0327217
768900 755562.74 33294.54 724442.46 44457.5356 44457.54 0.0578197
780900 783287.18 29395.47 788857.28 -7957.2804 7957.28 0.0101899
600100 663874.80 -74770.03 812682.66 -212582.66 212582.66 0.3542454
640500 625081.43 -49586.37 589104.77 51395.2313 51395.23 0.0802424
678976 647931.72 1119.29 575495.07 103480.935 103480.93 0.1524074
690000 677715.30 21184.30 649051.01 40948.9877 40948.99 0.0593464
735020 724183.88 38883.29 698899.60 36120.3996 36120.40 0.0491421
743360 749272.15 29226.78 763067.17 -19707.173 19707.17 0.0265109
688560 715541.68 -14843.30 778498.93 -89938.93 89938.93 0.1306189
705380 703975.51 -12549.30 700698.38 4681.61872 4681.62 0.006637
734000 721227.86 8311.85 691426.21 42573.7901 42573.79 0.0580024
690560 702253.91 -10788.21 729539.72 -38979.716 38979.72 0.0564465
700900 698069.71 -6165.40 691465.71 9434.2933 9434.29 0.0134603
745480 729407.29 20086.68 691904.31 53575.6923 53575.69 0.0718674
718000 727448.19 4654.64 749493.98 -31493.977 31493.98 0.0438635
748560 743622.85 12718.65 732102.83 16457.1707 16457.17 0.0219851
718280 729698.45 -5931.48 756341.50 -38061.499 38061.50 0.0529898
708720 713234.09 -13304.50 723766.97 -15046.965 15046.97 0.0212312
666776 676722.08 -29549.76 699929.59 -33153.592 33153.59 0.0497222
700079 647172.32 52906.6799 52906.68 0.0755724
total 966538.51 1.4254241
mad 42023.413508
mape 6.197%
TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
709888 709888 0 709888 0 0
687000 693866.40 -11215.12 709888 -22888 22888 0.0333159
698700 693885.38 -3351.25 682651.28 16048.72 16048.72 0.0229694
720000 711160.24 11087.03 690534.14 29465.8632 29465.86 0.0409248
768900 754904.18 33946.87 722247.27 46652.7332 46652.73 0.0606746
780900 783285.31 30050.85 788851.05 -7951.0451 7951.05 0.0101819
600100 664070.85 -74434.87 813336.17 -213236.17 213236.17 0.3553344
640500 625240.79 -49511.50 589635.98 50864.0187 50864.02 0.079413
678976 648001.99 1079.39 575729.29 103246.705 103246.71 0.1520624
690000 677724.41 21129.51 649081.37 40918.6255 40918.63 0.0593024
735020 724170.18 38850.89 698853.92 36166.0751 36166.08 0.0492042
743360 749258.32 29216.97 763021.07 -19661.067 19661.07 0.0264489
688560 715534.59 -14841.52 778475.29 -89915.287 89915.29 0.1305845
705380 703973.92 -12544.92 700693.06 4686.93786 4686.94 0.0066446
734000 721228.70 8314.87 691428.99 42571.0057 42571.01 0.0579986
690560 702255.07 -10787.08 729543.57 -38983.567 38983.57 0.0564521
700900 698070.40 -6165.39 691467.99 9432.00922 9432.01 0.013457
745480 729407.50 20086.35 691905.00 53574.9975 53575.00 0.0718664
718000 727448.16 4654.37 749493.85 -31493.855 31493.85 0.0438633
748560 743622.76 12718.53 732102.52 16457.4784 16457.48 0.0219855
718280 729698.39 -5931.50 756341.29 -38061.286 38061.29 0.0529895
708720 713234.07 -13304.47 723766.89 -15046.885 15046.89 0.0212311
666776 676722.08 -29549.73 699929.59 -33153.591 33153.59 0.0497222
700079 684207.00 -3625.47 647172.34 52906.6567 52906.66 0.0755724
790646 680581.53 110064.469 110064.47 0.1392083
total 1013382.58 1.4921992
mad 44060.111963
mape 6.488%
TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
687000 687000 0 687000 0 0
698700 695190.00 5733.00 687000 11700 11700 0.0167454
720000 714276.90 15080.73 700923.00 19077 19077 0.0264958
768900 757037.29 34456.49 729357.63 39542.37 39542.37 0.0514272
780900 784078.13 29265.54 791493.78 -10593.78 10593.78 0.0135661
600100 664073.10 -75223.86 813343.67 -213243.67 213243.67 0.3553469
640500 625004.77 -49914.99 588849.24 51650.7589 51650.76 0.0806413
678976 647810.14 989.26 575089.78 103886.217 103886.22 0.1530043
690000 677639.82 21177.56 648799.39 41200.6078 41200.61 0.059711
735020 724159.21 38916.84 698817.37 36202.6273 36202.63 0.0492539
743360 749274.82 29255.98 763076.05 -19716.054 19716.05 0.0265229
688560 715551.24 -14829.71 778530.79 -89970.792 89970.79 0.1306651
705380 703982.46 -12547.06 700721.53 4658.47466 4658.47 0.0066042
734000 721230.62 8309.60 691435.40 42564.6021 42564.60 0.0579899
690560 702254.06 -10790.71 729540.21 -38980.215 38980.21 0.0564473
700900 698069.01 -6166.75 691463.35 9436.64547 9436.65 0.0134636
745480 729406.68 20086.34 691902.25 53577.7472 53577.75 0.0718701
718000 727447.91 4654.76 749493.02 -31493.018 31493.02 0.0438621
748560 743622.80 12718.86 732102.67 16457.3309 16457.33 0.0219853
718280 729698.50 -5931.36 756341.66 -38061.656 38061.66 0.05299
708720 713234.14 -13304.46 723767.14 -15047.141 15047.14 0.0212314
666776 676722.11 -29549.76 699929.69 -33153.687 33153.69 0.0497224
700079 684207.00 -3625.50 647172.34 52906.6556 52906.66 0.0755724
790646 757626.65 50306.10 680581.50 110064.497 110064.50 0.1392083
654346 807932.75 -153586.75 153586.75 0.234718
total 1083185.55 1.5743271
mad 47095.023971
mape 6.845%
TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
698700 698700 0 698700 0 0
720000 713610.00 10437.00 698700 21300 21300 0.0295833
768900 755444.10 32414.97 724047.00 44853 44853 0.058334
780900 782987.72 29005.03 787859.07 -6959.07 6959.07 0.0089116
600100 663667.82 -74822.42 811992.75 -211892.75 211892.75 0.3530957
640500 625003.62 -49511.67 588845.40 51654.5962 51654.60 0.0806473
678976 647930.79 1195.51 575491.95 103484.047 103484.05 0.1524119
690000 677737.89 21223.63 649126.30 40873.6991 40873.70 0.0592372
735020 724202.46 38892.28 698961.52 36058.4822 36058.48 0.0490578
743360 749280.42 29222.26 763094.74 -19734.739 19734.74 0.026548
688560 715542.81 -14849.65 778502.68 -89942.683 89942.68 0.1306243
705380 703973.95 -12553.10 700693.15 4686.84821 4686.85 0.0066444
734000 721226.25 8310.69 691420.85 42579.1521 42579.15 0.0580097
690560 702253.08 -10788.01 729536.94 -38976.941 38976.94 0.0564425
700900 698069.52 -6164.90 691465.07 9434.93193 9434.93 0.0134612
745480 729407.39 20087.04 691904.62 53575.3773 53575.38 0.071867
718000 727448.33 4654.77 749494.42 -31494.424 31494.42 0.0438641
748560 743622.93 12718.65 732103.10 16456.9034 16456.90 0.0219847
718280 729698.47 -5931.52 756341.58 -38061.581 38061.58 0.0529899
708720 713234.09 -13304.53 723766.95 -15046.952 15046.95 0.0212312
666776 676722.07 -29549.77 699929.56 -33153.557 33153.56 0.0497222
700079 684206.99 -3625.49 647172.30 52906.7047 52906.70 0.0755725
790646 757626.65 50306.12 680581.50 110064.498 110064.50 0.1392083
654346 700422.03 -24951.40 807932.77 -153586.77 153586.77 0.234718
734778 675470.63 59307.3684 59307.37 0.0807147
total 1226777.70 1.794167
mad 53338.160947
mape 7.801%
TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
720000 720000 0 720000 0 0
768900 754230.00 23961.00 720000 48900 48900 0.0635973
780900 780087.30 25288.41 778191.00 2709 2709 0.0034691
600100 661682.71 -75296.69 805375.71 -205275.71 205275.71 0.3420692
640500 624265.81 -48780.84 586386.03 54113.9749 54113.97 0.0844871
678976 647928.69 1929.77 575484.97 103491.033 103491.03 0.1524222
690000 677957.54 21599.12 649858.46 40141.544 40141.54 0.0581762
735020 724381.00 38976.16 699556.66 35463.3408 35463.34 0.0482481
743360 749359.15 29177.55 763357.16 -19997.157 19997.16 0.026901
688560 715553.01 -14911.03 778536.70 -89976.7 89976.70 0.1306737
705380 703958.59 -12589.40 700641.98 4738.02053 4738.02 0.006717
734000 721210.76 8299.69 691369.19 42630.8065 42630.81 0.0580801
690560 702245.14 -10786.03 729510.45 -38950.453 38950.45 0.0564042
700900 698067.73 -6159.99 691459.11 9440.8912 9440.89 0.0134697
745480 729408.32 20090.42 691907.74 53572.2577 53572.26 0.0718628
718000 727449.62 4656.03 749498.74 -31498.739 31498.74 0.0438701
748560 743623.70 12718.66 732105.66 16454.3444 16454.34 0.0219813
718280 729698.71 -5931.89 756342.36 -38062.359 38062.36 0.052991
708720 713234.04 -13304.83 723766.81 -15046.814 15046.81 0.021231
666776 676721.96 -29549.91 699929.21 -33153.212 33153.21 0.0497217
700079 684206.92 -3625.50 647172.06 52906.9427 52906.94 0.0755728
790646 757626.62 50306.14 680581.41 110064.587 110064.59 0.1392084
654346 700422.03 -24951.37 807932.77 -153586.77 153586.77 0.234718
734778 716985.80 4109.23 675470.66 59307.3424 59307.34 0.0807146
687656 721095.02 -33439.022 33439.02 0.0486275
total 1259482.00 1.8365865
mad 54760.086792
mape 7.985%
TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
768900 768900 0 768900 0 0
780900 777300.00 5880.00 768900 -12000 12000 0.0153669
600100 655024.00 -83829.20 783180.00 183080 183080 0.3050825
640500 619708.44 -49869.65 571194.80 -69305.2 69305.20 0.1082048
678976 646234.84 3607.58 569838.79 -109137.21 109137.21 0.160738
690000 677952.73 23284.80 649842.42 -40157.582 40157.58 0.0581994
735020 724885.26 39838.21 701237.52 -33782.478 33782.48 0.0459613
743360 749769.04 29370.11 764723.47 21363.4677 21363.47 0.0287391
688560 715733.75 -15013.67 779139.15 90579.1521 90579.15 0.1315487
705380 703982.02 -12730.31 700720.07 -4659.9271 4659.93 0.0066063
734000 721175.51 8216.35 691251.71 -42748.287 42748.29 0.0582402
690560 702209.56 -10811.26 729391.87 38831.866 38831.87 0.0562324
700900 698049.49 -6155.43 691398.30 -9501.7026 9501.70 0.0135564
745480 729404.22 20101.68 691894.06 -53585.939 53585.94 0.0718811
718000 727451.77 4663.79 749505.90 31505.9003 31505.90 0.0438801
748560 743626.67 12721.57 732115.56 -16444.439 16444.44 0.0219681
718280 729700.47 -5931.87 756348.23 38068.2342 38068.23 0.0529992
708720 713234.58 -13305.68 723768.60 15048.6015 15048.60 0.0212335
666776 676721.87 -29550.60 699928.90 33152.8969 33152.90 0.0497212
700079 684206.68 -3625.81 647171.27 -52907.734 52907.73 0.0755739
790646 757626.46 50306.10 680580.87 -110065.13 110065.13 0.1392091
654346 700421.97 -24951.31 807932.56 153586.562 153586.56 0.2347177
734778 716985.80 4109.29 675470.66 -59307.345 59307.34 0.0807146
687656 697687.72 -12275.86 721095.08 33439.0822 33439.08 0.0486276
635678 685411.86 49733.86 49733.86 0.0782375
total 1252258.74 1.829002
mad 54446.0322
mape 7.952%
TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
780900 780900 0 780900 0 0
600100 654340.00 -88592.00 780900 180800 180800 0.3012831
640500 618074.40 -51963.52 565748.00 -74752 74752 0.1167088
678976 645116.46 3340.39 566110.88 -112865.12 112865.12 0.1662284
690000 677537.06 23696.53 648456.85 -41543.147 41543.15 0.0602075
735020 724884.08 40251.87 701233.59 -33786.413 33786.41 0.0459667
743360 749892.78 29581.66 765135.95 21775.9494 21775.95 0.0292939
688560 715834.33 -14966.42 779474.44 90914.443 90914.44 0.1320356
705380 704026.37 -12755.50 700867.91 -4512.086 4512.09 0.0063967
734000 721181.26 8181.77 691270.88 -42729.123 42729.12 0.0582141
690560 702200.91 -10831.71 729363.04 38803.0365 38803.04 0.0561907
700900 698040.76 -6161.62 691369.20 -9530.8036 9530.80 0.013598
745480 729399.74 20102.80 691879.14 -53600.862 53600.86 0.0719011
718000 727450.76 4666.56 749502.54 31502.5429 31502.54 0.0438754
748560 743627.20 12723.47 732117.32 -16442.682 16442.68 0.0219657
718280 729701.20 -5931.16 756350.66 38070.665 38070.66 0.0530025
708720 713235.01 -13305.68 723770.04 15050.0431 15050.04 0.0212355
666776 676722.00 -29550.81 699929.34 33153.3354 33153.34 0.0497218
700079 684206.66 -3625.98 647171.19 -52907.811 52907.81 0.0755741
790646 757626.40 50306.03 680580.67 -110065.33 110065.33 0.1392094
654346 700421.93 -24951.32 807932.43 153586.428 153586.43 0.2347175
734778 716985.78 4109.30 675470.60 -59307.395 59307.40 0.0807147
687656 697687.72 -12275.85 721095.08 33439.0816 33439.08 0.0486276
635678 650598.16 -36645.45 685411.87 49733.8746 49733.87 0.0782375
654788 613952.71 -40835.286 40835.29 0.0623641
total 1298872.17 1.9049064
mad 56472.703038
mape 8.282%
TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
600100 600100 0 600100 0 0
640500 628380.00 19796.00 600100 -40400 40400 0.0630757
678976 669736.00 34888.00 648176.00 -30800 30800 0.0453624
690000 694387.20 27722.24 704624.00 14624 14624.00 0.0211942
735020 731146.83 34048.41 722109.44 -12910.56 12910.56 0.0175649
743360 749910.57 23349.14 765195.25 21835.2464 21835.25 0.0293737
688560 713969.92 -18153.72 773259.72 84699.7176 84699.72 0.1230099
705380 702510.86 -13467.45 695816.20 -9563.8027 9563.80 0.0135584
734000 720513.02 8561.28 689043.40 -44956.595 44956.60 0.0612488
690560 702114.29 -10310.73 729074.30 38514.2985 38514.30 0.0557726
700900 698171.07 -5853.47 691803.56 -9096.4396 9096.44 0.0129782
745480 729531.28 20196.11 692317.59 -53162.406 53162.41 0.071313
718000 727518.21 4649.69 749727.38 31727.3833 31727.38 0.0441886
748560 743642.37 12681.82 732167.90 -16392.098 16392.10 0.0218982
718280 729693.26 -5959.84 756324.19 38044.1858 38044.19 0.0529657
708720 713224.03 -13316.41 723733.42 15013.4198 15013.42 0.0211839
666776 676715.48 -29550.90 699907.61 33131.6143 33131.61 0.0496893
700079 684204.67 -3622.84 647164.58 -52914.418 52914.42 0.0755835
790646 757626.75 50308.60 680581.84 -110064.16 110064.16 0.1392079
654346 700422.81 -24950.18 807935.35 153589.353 153589.35 0.2347219
734778 716986.39 4109.45 675472.63 -59305.375 59305.37 0.080712
687656 697687.95 -12276.07 721095.84 33439.8404 33439.84 0.0486287
635678 650598.16 -36645.67 685411.88 49733.8832 49733.88 0.0782375
654788 642537.35 -16636.27 613952.49 -40835.507 40835.51 0.0623645
690807 625901.07 -64905.925 64905.93 0.0939567
total 994754.31 1.4238334
mad 43250.187253
mape 6.191%
TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
640500 640500 0 640500 0 0
678976 667433.20 18853.24 640500 -38476 38476 0.0566677
690000 688885.93 20672.88 686286.44 -3713.56 3713.56 0.005382
735020 727381.64 33148.86 709558.82 -25461.184 25461.18 0.0346401
743360 748511.15 24735.31 760530.51 17170.5093 17170.51 0.0230985
688560 713965.94 -16761.05 773246.47 84686.4676 84686.47 0.1229907
705380 702927.47 -12755.25 697204.89 -8175.114 8175.11 0.0115897
734000 720851.67 8720.37 690172.22 -43827.783 43827.78 0.0597109
690560 702263.61 -10395.53 729572.03 39012.0303 39012.03 0.0564933
700900 698190.42 -5969.89 691868.08 -9031.9207 9031.92 0.0128862
745480 729502.16 20127.25 692220.54 -53259.465 53259.46 0.0714432
718000 727488.82 4628.84 749629.41 31629.4097 31629.41 0.0440521
748560 743627.30 12685.58 732117.66 -16442.339 16442.34 0.0219653
718280 729689.86 -5950.53 756312.88 38032.8827 38032.88 0.0529499
708720 713225.80 -13310.00 723739.34 15019.3366 15019.34 0.0211922
666776 676717.94 -29548.50 699915.80 33139.7979 33139.80 0.0497015
700079 684206.13 -3622.82 647169.44 -52909.565 52909.56 0.0755766
790646 757627.19 50307.90 680583.31 -110062.69 110062.69 0.139206
654346 700422.73 -24950.76 807935.09 153589.093 153589.09 0.2347215
734778 716986.19 4109.20 675471.97 -59306.029 59306.03 0.0807129
687656 697687.82 -12276.10 721095.39 33439.3889 33439.39 0.0486281
635678 650598.11 -36645.62 685411.71 49733.7136 49733.71 0.0782373
654788 642537.35 -16636.22 613952.49 -40835.509 40835.51 0.0623645
690807 671335.24 15167.66 625901.12 -64905.876 64905.88 0.0939566
656556 686502.89 29946.893 29946.89 0.0456121
total 1021859.66 1.4581667
mad 44428.680829
mape 6.340%
TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
678976 678976 0 678976 0 0
690000 686692.80 5401.76 678976 -11024 11024 0.0159768
735020 722142.37 26435.23 692094.56 -42925.44 42925.44 0.0584004
743360 744925.28 23878.60 748577.59 5217.5936 5217.59 0.0070189
688560 712633.16 -15440.90 768803.88 80243.8828 80243.88 0.1165387
705380 702923.68 -11428.91 697192.27 -8187.733 8187.73 0.0116075
734000 721248.43 9398.65 691494.77 -42505.229 42505.23 0.057909
690560 702586.13 -10244.02 730647.08 40087.0848 40087.08 0.0580501
700900 698332.63 -6050.65 692342.11 -8557.8928 8557.89 0.0122099
745480 729520.59 20016.38 692281.98 -53198.019 53198.02 0.0713608
718000 727461.09 4563.26 749536.97 31536.9728 31536.97 0.0439234
748560 743599.31 12665.73 732024.35 -16535.646 16535.65 0.0220899
718280 729675.51 -5946.94 756265.03 37985.0345 37985.03 0.0528833
708720 713222.57 -13301.14 723728.57 15008.5719 15008.57 0.021177
666776 676719.63 -29542.40 699921.43 33145.4329 33145.43 0.04971
700079 684208.47 -3620.53 647177.23 -52901.771 52901.77 0.0755654
790646 757628.58 50307.92 680587.94 -110058.06 110058.06 0.1392002
654346 700423.15 -24951.43 807936.50 153590.499 153590.50 0.2347237
734778 716986.12 4108.65 675471.72 -59306.276 59306.28 0.0807132
687656 697687.63 -12276.35 721094.77 33438.7664 33438.77 0.0486272
635678 650597.99 -36645.66 685411.28 49733.2837 49733.28 0.0782366
654788 642537.30 -16636.18 613952.33 -40835.67 40835.67 0.0623647
690807 671335.24 15167.70 625901.12 -64905.878 64905.88 0.0939566
656556 665540.08 493.70 686502.94 29946.9399 29946.94 0.0456122
676655 666033.78 -10621.215 10621.22 0.0156966
total 1020875.68 1.4578555
mad 44385.899196
mape 6.339%
TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
690000 690000 0 690000 0 0
735020 721514.00 22059.80 690000 -45020 45020 0.06125
743360 743424.14 21955.04 743573.80 213.8 213.8 0.0002876
688560 711605.75 -15686.36 765379.18 76819.178 76819.18 0.111565
705380 702541.82 -11050.66 695919.39 -9460.6058 9460.61 0.0134121
734000 721247.35 9778.67 691491.16 -42508.844 42508.84 0.057914
690560 702699.81 -10049.68 731026.02 40466.018 40466.02 0.0585988
700900 698425.04 -6007.24 692650.13 -8249.8722 8249.87 0.0117704
745480 729561.34 19993.24 692417.80 -53062.202 53062.20 0.0711786
718000 727466.37 4531.50 749554.58 31554.5781 31554.58 0.0439479
748560 743591.36 12646.94 731997.87 -16562.131 16562.13 0.0221253
718280 729667.49 -5952.63 756238.30 37958.3003 37958.30 0.0528461
708720 713218.46 -13300.11 723714.86 14994.8626 14994.86 0.0211577
666776 676718.70 -29539.86 699918.35 33142.3486 33142.35 0.0497054
700079 684208.95 -3618.78 647178.84 -52900.156 52900.16 0.0755631
790646 757629.25 50308.57 680590.17 -110055.83 110055.83 0.1391974
654346 700423.55 -24951.42 807937.82 153591.824 153591.82 0.2347257
734778 716986.24 4108.46 675472.13 -59305.874 59305.87 0.0807126
687656 697687.61 -12276.50 721094.70 33438.6954 33438.70 0.0486271
635678 650597.93 -36645.72 685411.11 49733.1053 49733.11 0.0782363
654788 642537.26 -16636.19 613952.21 -40835.793 40835.79 0.0623649
690807 671335.22 15167.72 625901.08 -64905.924 64905.92 0.0939567
656556 665540.08 493.72 686502.94 29946.9394 29946.94 0.0456122
676655 673468.64 5698.11 666033.80 -10621.202 10621.20 0.0156966
738900 679166.74 -59733.255 59733.26 0.0808408
total 1015348.09 1.4504514
mad 44145.568914
mape 6.306%
TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
735020 735020 0 735020 0 0
743360 740858.00 4086.60 735020 -8340 8340 0.0112193
688560 705475.38 -23541.85 744944.60 56384.6 56384.6 0.0818877
705380 698346.06 -12053.08 681933.53 -23446.474 23446.47 0.0332395
734000 719687.89 11323.36 686292.98 -47707.024 47707.02 0.0649959
690560 702695.38 -8497.75 731011.25 40451.2528 40451.25 0.0585775
700900 698889.29 -5213.59 694197.62 -6702.378 6702.38 0.0095625
745480 729938.71 20170.52 693675.70 -51804.302 51804.30 0.0694912
718000 727632.77 4437.00 750109.23 32109.2287 32109.23 0.0447204
748560 743612.93 12517.21 732069.77 -16490.234 16490.23 0.0220293
718280 729635.04 -6029.36 756130.14 37850.1418 37850.14 0.0526955
708720 713185.71 -13323.34 723605.69 14885.6851 14885.69 0.0210036
666776 676701.91 -29535.66 699862.36 33086.3624 33086.36 0.0496214
700079 684205.17 -3608.41 647166.25 -52912.752 52912.75 0.0755811
790646 757631.23 50315.71 680596.76 -110049.24 110049.24 0.139189
654346 700426.28 -24948.75 807946.94 153600.943 153600.94 0.2347396
734778 716987.86 4108.48 675477.54 -59300.465 59300.46 0.0807053
687656 697688.10 -12277.29 721096.34 33440.3406 33440.34 0.0486295
635678 650597.84 -36646.37 685410.82 49732.8153 49732.82 0.0782359
654788 642537.04 -16636.47 613951.48 -40836.522 40836.52 0.062366
690807 671335.07 15167.68 625900.57 -64906.427 64906.43 0.0939574
656556 665540.03 493.77 686502.75 29946.7505 29946.75 0.0456119
676655 673468.64 5698.16 666033.80 -10621.204 10621.20 0.0156966
738900 720980.04 34967.43 679166.80 -59733.2 59733.20 0.0808407
755947.47
total 1034338.34 1.4745969
mad 44971.232181
mape 6.411%
alpha 0.8
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan
BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480 0
feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 693996.80 -9986.56 706480 -15604
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 704712.45 6575.21 684010.24 25877.76
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 691857.53 -8968.89 711287.65 -24287.654
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 695537.73 1150.38 682888.64 15811.3615
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 715337.62 16069.99 696688.11 23311.8933
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 761401.52 40065.12 731407.61 37492.388
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 785013.33 26902.47 801466.64 -20566.641
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 642463.16 -108659.64 811915.80 -211815.8
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 619160.70 -40373.89 533803.52 106696.482
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 658938.16 23747.19 578786.81 100189.189
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688537.07 28428.56 682685.35 7314.6496
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731409.13 39983.36 716965.63 18054.3659
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 748966.50 22042.57 771392.49 -28032.485
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705049.81 -30724.83 771009.06 -82449.065
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699169.00 -10849.62 674324.98 31055.0207
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724863.88 18385.98 688319.38 45680.6246
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701097.97 -15335.53 743249.85 -52689.854
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697872.49 -5647.49 685762.44 15137.5566
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734829.00 28435.71 692225.00 53255.0026
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727052.94 -533.70 763264.71 -45264.71
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.85 13572.38 726519.24 22040.762
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.85 -11671.92 757724.23 -39444.231
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.38 -15369.15 714496.92 -5776.9219
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 685762.44 -18986.443
total
mad
mape
BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 690876 0.00 690876 0
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 706085.60 12167.68 690876 19012
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 693250.66 -7834.42 718253.28 -31253.28
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 696043.25 667.19 685416.24 13283.7632
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 715342.09 15572.51 696710.44 23289.5634
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 761302.92 39883.17 730914.60 37985.4029
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 784957.22 26900.07 801186.09 -20286.087
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 642451.46 -108624.59 811857.29 -211757.29
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 619165.37 -40353.79 533826.86 106673.135
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 658943.12 23751.44 578811.59 100164.414
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688538.91 28426.92 682694.56 7305.44459
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731409.17 39981.59 716965.83 18054.1662
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 748966.15 22041.91 771390.76 -28030.756
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705049.61 -30724.85 771008.06 -82448.057
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699168.95 -10849.50 674324.76 31055.2395
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724863.89 18386.05 688319.45 45680.5454
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701097.99 -15335.51 743249.94 -52689.942
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697872.50 -5647.50 685762.48 15137.5231
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734829.00 28435.70 692225.00 53255.0014
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727052.94 -533.71 763264.70 -45264.704
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.85 13572.38 726519.23 22040.7656
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.85 -11671.92 757724.23 -39444.231
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.38 -15369.15 714496.92 -5776.9222
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.05 -33116.50 694506.23 -27730.23
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 639205.54 60873.4555
total
mad
mape
BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 709888 0.00 709888 0
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 691577.60 -14648.32 709888 -22888
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 694345.86 -715.06 676929.28 21770.72
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 714726.16 16161.23 693630.80 26369.2032
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 761297.48 40489.30 730887.39 38012.6098
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 785077.36 27121.76 801786.78 -20886.779
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 642519.82 -108621.67 812199.12 -212099.12
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 619179.63 -40396.49 533898.15 106601.85
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 658937.43 23726.94 578783.14 100192.859
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688532.87 28421.74 682664.37 7335.63136
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731406.92 39983.59 716954.62 18065.3817
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 748966.10 22044.06 771390.51 -28030.513
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705050.03 -30724.04 771010.16 -82450.163
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699169.20 -10849.48 674325.99 31054.011
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724863.94 18385.90 688319.72 45680.2788
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701097.97 -15335.60 743249.85 -52689.846
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697872.47 -5647.52 685762.37 15137.6304
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734828.99 28435.71 692224.96 53255.0423
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727052.94 -533.70 763264.70 -45264.702
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.85 13572.39 726519.24 22040.7582
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.85 -11671.92 757724.23 -39444.235
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.38 -15369.15 714496.92 -5776.9232
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.05 -33116.50 694506.23 -27730.23
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.31 5842.51 639205.54 60873.4558
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 693746.82 96899.1813
total
mad
mape
BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 687000 0.00 687000 0
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 696360.00 7488.00 687000 11700
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 716769.60 17825.28 703848.00 16152
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 762038.98 39780.56 734594.88 34305.12
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 785083.91 26392.06 801819.53 -20919.533
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 642375.19 -108888.56 811475.96 -211375.96
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 619097.33 -40400.00 533486.63 107013.368
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 658920.26 23778.35 578697.32 100278.678
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688539.72 28451.24 682698.61 7301.38635
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731414.19 39989.82 716990.96 18029.0407
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 748968.80 22041.65 771404.01 -28044.014
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705050.09 -30726.64 771010.46 -82450.456
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699168.69 -10850.45 674323.45 31056.5474
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724863.65 18385.88 688318.24 45681.7578
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701097.91 -15335.42 743249.53 -52689.525
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697872.50 -5647.41 685762.49 15137.5144
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734829.02 28435.73 692225.09 53254.9131
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727052.95 -533.71 763264.75 -45264.752
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.85 13572.38 726519.24 22040.7565
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.85 -11671.93 757724.23 -39444.226
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.38 -15369.15 714496.92 -5776.9179
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.05 -33116.50 694506.23 -27730.229
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.31 5842.51 639205.54 60873.4554
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.16 67857.99 693746.82 96899.1808
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 839124.15 -184778.15
total
mad
mape
BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 698700 0.00 698700 0
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 715740.00 13632.00 698700 21300
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 760994.40 38929.92 729372.00 39528
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 784704.86 26754.36 799924.32 -19024.32
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 642371.84 -108515.55 811459.22 -211359.22
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 619171.26 -40263.58 533856.30 106643.701
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 658962.34 23780.15 578907.68 100068.317
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688548.50 28424.96 682742.48 7257.51701
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731410.69 39974.75 716973.45 18046.5462
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 748965.09 22038.47 771385.44 -28025.438
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705048.71 -30725.41 771003.55 -82443.554
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699168.66 -10849.12 674323.30 31056.6971
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724863.91 18386.37 688319.54 45680.4612
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701098.06 -15335.41 743250.28 -52690.281
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697872.53 -5647.50 685762.65 15137.3503
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734829.01 28435.68 692225.03 53254.9724
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727052.94 -533.72 763264.69 -45264.686
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.84 13572.38 726519.22 22040.7816
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.85 -11671.92 757724.23 -39444.225
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.38 -15369.15 714496.92 -5776.9224
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.05 -33116.50 694506.23 -27730.232
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.31 5842.51 639205.55 60873.4548
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.16 67857.99 693746.82 96899.181
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.63 -50400.03 839124.15 -184778.15
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 640901.60 93876.4
total
mad
mape
BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 720000 0.00 720000 0
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 759120.00 31296.00 720000 48900
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 782803.20 25205.76 790416.00 -9516
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 641681.79 -107855.97 808008.96 -207908.96
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 619165.16 -39584.50 533825.82 106674.182
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 659096.93 24028.52 579580.67 99395.3341
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688625.09 28428.23 683125.45 6874.55064
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731426.66 39926.90 717053.32 17966.6815
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 748958.71 22011.02 771353.57 -27993.568
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705041.95 -30731.21 770969.73 -82409.735
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699166.15 -10846.88 674310.74 31069.2623
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724863.85 18388.79 688319.27 45680.7338
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701098.53 -15334.50 743252.64 -52692.642
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697872.81 -5647.48 685764.03 15135.974
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734829.07 28435.51 692225.33 53254.6737
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727052.92 -533.82 763264.58 -45264.578
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.82 13572.36 726519.10 22040.9019
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.84 -11671.92 757724.18 -39444.179
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.38 -15369.14 714496.92 -5776.9209
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.05 -33116.50 694506.24 -27730.24
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.31 5842.51 639205.55 60873.4499
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.16 67857.99 693746.82 96899.1799
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.63 -50400.03 839124.15 -184778.15
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.72 9680.87 640901.60 93876.4004
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 725683.59 -38027.586
total
mad
mape
BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 768900 0.00 768900 0
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 778500.00 7680.00 768900 -12000
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 637316.00 -111411.20 786180.00 186080
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 617580.96 -38070.27 525904.80 -114595.2
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 659082.94 25587.53 579510.69 -99465.312
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688934.09 28998.43 684670.47 -5329.5347
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731602.50 39934.42 717932.52 -17087.477
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 748995.38 21901.19 771536.92 28176.9198
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705027.31 -30794.22 770896.57 82336.5705
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699150.62 -10860.20 674233.10 -31146.904
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724858.08 18393.93 688290.42 -45709.581
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701098.40 -15328.96 743252.02 52692.0158
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697873.89 -5645.40 685769.44 -15130.555
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734829.70 28435.57 692228.49 -53251.514
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727053.05 -534.20 763265.26 45265.2632
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.77 13572.13 726518.85 -22041.15
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.78 -11671.96 757723.90 39443.9035
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.36 -15369.13 714496.82 5776.8159
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.05 -33116.48 694506.24 27730.2362
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.31 5842.52 639205.57 -60873.431
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.17 67857.99 693746.83 -96899.169
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.63 -50400.03 839124.15 184778.152
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.72 9680.87 640901.60 -93876.401
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 695261.52 -14656.79 725683.58 38027.5849
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 680604.73 44926.7278
total
mad
mape
BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780900 0.00 780900 0
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 636260.00 -115712.00 780900 180800
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 616509.60 -38942.72 520548.00 -119952
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 658694.18 25959.12 577566.88 -101409.12
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688930.66 29381.01 684653.29 -5346.7072
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731678.33 40074.34 718311.67 -16708.332
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 749038.54 21903.03 771752.68 28392.6755
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705036.31 -30821.17 770941.56 82381.5647
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699147.03 -10875.66 674215.14 -31164.859
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724854.27 18390.66 688271.37 -45728.634
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701096.99 -15327.70 743244.94 52684.9368
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697873.86 -5644.04 685769.29 -15130.709
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734829.96 28436.08 692229.82 -53250.184
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727053.21 -534.19 763266.04 45266.0386
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.80 13572.04 726519.02 -22040.982
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.77 -11672.02 757723.84 39443.8426
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.35 -15369.14 714496.75 5776.74817
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.04 -33116.47 694506.21 27730.2105
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.31 5842.52 639205.57 -60873.432
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.17 67857.99 693746.84 -96899.164
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.63 -50400.03 839124.15 184778.155
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.72 9680.86 640901.60 -93876.401
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 695261.52 -14656.79 725683.58 38027.5847
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 644663.35 -43409.90 680604.73 44926.7276
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 601253.45 -53534.55
total
mad
mape
BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 600100 0.00 600100 0
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 632420.00 25856.00 600100 -40400
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 674836.00 39104.00 658276.00 -20700
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 694788.00 23782.40 713940.00 23940
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731730.08 34310.14 718570.40 -16449.6
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 747896.04 19794.80 766040.22 22680.224
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 704386.17 -30848.94 767690.85 79130.8454
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699011.45 -10469.57 673537.23 -31842.771
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724908.38 18623.63 688541.88 -45458.121
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701154.40 -15278.45 743532.01 52972.0065
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697895.19 -5663.06 685875.95 -15024.052
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734830.43 28415.58 692232.13 -53247.871
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727049.20 -541.86 763246.00 45246.0029
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744149.47 13571.84 726507.34 -22052.664
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.26 -11670.60 757721.31 39441.3074
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.53 -15368.30 714497.67 5777.66501
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.25 -33116.29 694507.23 27731.2309
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.39 5842.46 639205.96 -60873.044
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.17 67857.91 693746.85 -96899.151
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.62 -50400.06 839124.08 184778.084
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.71 9680.86 640901.56 -93876.443
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 695261.52 -14656.78 725683.58 38027.5753
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 644663.35 -43409.89 680604.73 44926.7307
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644081.09 -9147.78 601253.45 -53534.546
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 634933.31 -55873.692
total
mad
mape
BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 640500 0.00 640500 0
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 671280.80 24624.64 640500 -38476
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 691181.09 20845.16 695905.44 5905.44
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 730421.25 35561.16 712026.25 -22993.754
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 747884.48 21082.82 765982.41 22622.41
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 704641.46 -30377.85 768967.30 80407.3003
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699156.72 -10463.36 674263.61 -31116.394
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724938.67 18532.89 688693.36 -45306.641
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701142.31 -15330.51 743471.56 52911.56
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697882.36 -5674.06 685811.80 -15088.198
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734825.66 28419.83 692208.30 -53271.703
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727049.10 -537.28 763245.49 45245.486
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744150.36 13573.56 726511.81 -22048.187
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.78 -11670.55 757723.92 39443.9179
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.65 -15368.62 714498.23 5778.2315
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.21 -33116.48 694507.03 27731.0261
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.35 5842.42 639205.73 -60873.272
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.15 67857.93 693746.76 -96899.237
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.62 -50400.04 839124.08 184778.081
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.71 9680.87 640901.57 -93876.427
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 695261.52 -14656.78 725683.58 38027.5846
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 644663.35 -43409.89 680604.73 44926.7328
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644081.09 -9147.78 601253.45 -53534.547
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 679632.26 26611.38 634933.31 -55873.693
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 706243.64 49687.6414
total
mad
mape
BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 678976 0.00 678976 0
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 687795.20 7055.36 678976 -11024
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 726986.11 32763.80 694850.56 -40169.44
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 746637.98 22274.26 759749.91 16389.9136
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 704630.45 -29151.18 768912.24 80352.2396
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699399.85 -10014.71 675479.27 -29900.729
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 725077.03 18538.80 689385.14 -44614.856
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701171.17 -15416.93 743615.83 53055.8264
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697870.85 -5723.64 685754.23 -15145.766
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734813.44 28409.35 692147.21 -53332.794
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727044.56 -533.24 763222.79 45222.7884
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744150.26 13577.92 726511.32 -22048.68
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726169.64 -11668.92 757728.18 39448.1817
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709876.14 -15368.58 714500.72 5780.71769
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.31 -33116.78 694507.57 27731.5656
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.31 5842.24 639205.53 -60873.467
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.11 67857.89 693746.55 -96899.455
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.60 -50400.03 839124.00 184777.999
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.71 9680.89 640901.57 -93876.43
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 695261.52 -14656.78 725683.60 38027.5996
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 644663.35 -43409.89 680604.74 44926.7417
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644081.09 -9147.78 601253.46 -53534.545
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 679632.26 26611.38 634933.31 -55873.693
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 666493.53 -5188.71 706243.64 49687.6407
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 661304.82 -15350.183
total
mad
mape
BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690000 0.00 690000 0
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 726016.00 28812.80 690000 -45020
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 745653.76 21472.77 754828.80 11468.8
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 704273.31 -28809.81 767126.53 78566.528
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699396.70 -9663.25 675463.50 -29916.504
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 725146.69 18667.34 689733.45 -44266.548
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701210.81 -15415.24 743814.03 53254.034
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697879.11 -5748.40 685795.57 -15104.431
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734810.14 28395.14 692130.71 -53349.288
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727041.06 -536.24 763205.28 45205.2848
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744148.96 13579.08 726504.82 -22055.183
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726169.61 -11667.67 757728.04 39448.0406
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709876.39 -15368.11 714501.94 5781.93933
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.46 -33116.77 694508.28 27732.2779
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.34 5842.15 639205.69 -60873.312
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.10 67857.84 693746.49 -96899.51
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.59 -50400.04 839123.94 184777.937
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.71 9680.89 640901.55 -93876.453
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 695261.52 -14656.77 725683.60 38027.5988
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 644663.35 -43409.89 680604.75 44926.746
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644081.09 -9147.78 601253.46 -53534.542
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 679632.26 26611.38 634933.31 -55873.693
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 666493.53 -5188.71 706243.64 49687.6405
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 673584.96 4635.41 661304.82 -15350.183
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 678220.37 -60679.63
total
mad
mape
BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 735020 0.00 735020 0
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 741692.00 5337.60 735020 -8340
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 700253.92 -32082.94 747029.60 58469.6
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 697938.20 -8269.17 668170.98 -37209.024
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 725133.81 20102.65 689669.03 -44330.973
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701495.29 -14890.28 745236.46 54676.4597
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698041.00 -5741.49 686605.01 -14294.988
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734843.90 28294.02 692299.51 -53180.485
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727027.59 -594.25 763137.93 45137.9259
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744134.67 13566.82 726433.34 -22126.664
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726164.30 -11662.93 757701.48 39421.4827
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709876.27 -15363.01 714501.36 5781.36322
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672323.45 -33114.86 694513.27 27737.2669
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.92 5842.20 639208.60 -60870.403
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.22 67857.48 693747.12 -96898.879
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.54 -50400.25 839123.71 184777.708
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.66 9680.84 640901.29 -93876.708
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 695261.50 -14656.76 725683.50 38027.5021
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 644663.35 -43409.87 680604.74 44926.7427
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644081.10 -9147.78 601253.48 -53534.525
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 679632.26 26611.38 634933.32 -55873.682
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 666493.53 -5188.71 706243.64 49687.6428
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 673584.96 4635.41 661304.82 -15350.184
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 726764.07 43470.37 678220.37 -60679.631
jan 2019 770234.44
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.9
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan