Double Exponential Smoothing Kompres

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alpha 0.

1
Dengan Data Acuan 24 Bulan

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


BULAN TAHUN
Xt St Bt Ft+m
jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480
feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 704919.60 -156.04 706480
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 705276.00 -104.80 704763.56
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 703354.09 -286.51 705171.21
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 702630.82 -330.18 703067.58
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 704070.57 -153.19 702300.64
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 710415.65 496.64 703917.38
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 717911.05 1196.51 710912.28
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 707206.81 6.44 719107.57
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 700541.92 -660.69 707213.25
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 697790.71 -869.75 699881.23
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 696228.86 -938.96 696920.96
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 699262.92 -541.66 695289.91
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 703185.13 -95.27 698721.26
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 701636.88 -240.57 703089.87
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 701794.68 -200.73 701396.31
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 704834.56 123.33 701593.95
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 703518.10 -20.65 704957.89
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 703237.70 -46.62 703497.45
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 707419.97 376.27 703191.08
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 708816.62 478.30 707796.24
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 713221.43 870.95 709294.92
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 714511.14 912.83 714092.38
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 714753.58 845.79 715423.97
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 710717.03 357.56 715599.37
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 709975.03 247.60 711074.59
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 718264.97 1051.84 710222.63
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 712819.72 402.13 719316.80
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 715377.47 617.69 713221.85
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 713161.24 334.30 715995.15
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 705713.78 -443.88 713495.54
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 700221.71 -948.70 705269.90
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 698426.41 -1033.36 699273.02
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 693309.35 -1441.73 697393.06
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 690346.36 -1593.85 691867.62
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 693767.26 -1092.38 688752.51
jan 2019 692674.88
Total
MAD
MAPE
1-alpha

zigma=ratarata

level (alpha x Xt) + (1-alpha) x (St - 1 ) + (Bt-1)


trend (alpha x St -(St-1) +(1-alpha) x (Bt-1)

702689
alpha 0.2
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


xt-ft error MAD Xt
0 0 jan 2016 706,480.00 706480
-15604 15604 0.022585819 feb 2016 690,876.00 690876
5124.44 5124.44 0.00721866 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888
-18171.208 18171.21 0.026450085 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000
-4367.5799 4367.58 0.006251009 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700
17699.3616 17699.36 0.024582447 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
64982.6153 64982.62 0.084513741 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
69987.7175 69987.72 0.08962443 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
-119007.57 119007.57 0.198312894 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
-66713.249 66713.25 0.104158078 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
-20905.229 20905.23 0.030789349 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
-6920.9592 6920.96 0.010030376 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
39730.0933 39730.09 0.054053078 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
44638.7396 44638.74 0.060049962 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
-14529.866 14529.87 0.021101816 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
3983.68742 3983.69 0.005647576 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
32406.0487 32406.05 0.04414993 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
-14397.887 14397.89 0.020849581 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
-2597.4495 2597.45 0.003705877 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
42288.9184 42288.92 0.0567271 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
10203.7603 10203.76 0.014211365 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
39265.0804 39265.08 0.052454152 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
4187.61766 4187.62 0.005830063 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
-6703.9749 6703.97 0.009459272 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
-48823.369 48823.37 0.073223044 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
-10995.589 10995.59 0.015706212 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
80423.3683 80423.37 0.101718555 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
-64970.804 64970.80 0.099291206 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
21556.1495 21556.15 0.029336955 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
-28339.154 28339.15 0.041211237 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
-77817.536 77817.54 0.122416594 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
-50481.904 50481.90 0.077096563 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
-8466.0163 8466.02 0.012255256 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
-40837.057 40837.06 0.062198894 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
-15212.624 15212.62 0.022482097 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
50147.4931 50147.49 0.067867767 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
jan 2019
1162488.11 1.677561039 total
33213.94611 mad
4.793% mape
abs = absolut
St-1 = nilai level sebelumnya
Bt-1 = nilai trend sebelumnya

- 1 ) + (Bt-1)
alpha 0.3
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN
St Bt Ft+m xt-ft error MAD
706480 0 706480 0 0 jan 2016
703359.20 -624.16 706480 -15604 15604 0.022586 feb 2016
704165.63 -338.04 702735.04 7152.96 7152.96 0.010076 mar 2016
700462.07 -1011.15 703827.59 -16827.59 16827.59 0.024494 apr 2016
699300.74 -1041.18 699450.93 -750.9271 750.93 0.001075 mei 2016
702607.65 -171.56 698259.56 21740.4406 21740.44 0.030195 jun 2016
715728.87 2486.99 702436.08 66463.9172 66463.92 0.08644 jul 2016
730752.69 4994.36 718215.86 62684.1417 62684.14 0.080272 ags 2016
708617.64 -431.52 735747.04 -135647.04 135647.04 0.226041 sep 2016
694648.89 -3138.97 708186.11 -67686.111 67686.11 0.105677 okt 2016
689003.14 -3640.33 691509.92 -12533.921 12533.92 0.01846 nov 2016
686290.25 -3454.84 685362.81 4637.18894 4637.19 0.006721 des 2016
693272.33 -1367.45 682835.41 52184.589 52184.59 0.070998 jan 2017
702195.90 690.75 691904.87 51455.1254 51455.13 0.06922 feb 2017
700021.32 117.68 702886.65 -14326.65 14326.65 0.020807 mar 2017
701187.20 327.32 700139.01 5240.99491 5240.99 0.00743 apr 2017
708011.62 1626.74 701514.53 32485.4714 32485.47 0.044258 mei 2017
705822.69 863.61 709638.37 -19078.366 19078.37 0.027627 jun 2017
705529.04 632.16 706686.30 -5786.3018 5786.30 0.008256 jul 2017
714024.96 2204.91 706161.20 39318.8019 39318.80 0.052743 ags 2017
716583.89 2275.71 716229.87 1770.13276 1770.13 0.002465 sep 2017
724799.69 3463.73 718859.61 29700.3921 29700.39 0.039677 okt 2017
726266.73 3064.39 728263.42 -9983.416 9983.42 0.013899 nov 2017
725208.90 2239.95 729331.13 -20611.126 20611.13 0.029082 des 2017
715314.28 -186.97 706686.30 -39910.302 39910.30 0.059856 jan 2018
712117.65 -788.90 706161.20 -6082.1981 6082.20 0.008688 feb 2018
727192.20 2383.79 716229.87 74416.1328 74416.13 0.094121 mar 2018
714529.99 -625.41 718859.61 -64513.608 64513.61 0.098592 apr 2018
718079.27 209.53 728263.42 6514.58397 6514.58 0.008866 may 2018
712162.24 -1015.78 729331.13 -41675.126 41675.13 0.060605 jun 2018
696052.76 -4034.52 727448.85 -91770.849 91770.85 0.144367 jul 2018
684572.19 -5523.73 715127.31 -60339.313 60339.31 0.092151 aug 2018
681400.17 -5053.39 711328.75 -20521.752 20521.75 0.029707 sep 2018
672388.62 -5845.02 729575.99 -73019.993 73019.99 0.111217 oct 2018
668565.88 -5440.57 713904.59 -37249.586 37249.59 0.05505 nov 2018
678280.25 -2409.58 718288.80 20611.2026 20611.20 0.027894 dec 2018
711146.45 jan 2019
total 1230294.26 1.78961
mad 35151.264479
mape 5.113%
ata Acuan 18 Bulan

QTY CPO ( liter ) level(Lt) trend(Tt) nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
Xt St Bt Ft+m xt-ft error MAD
706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480 0 0
690,876.00 690876 701798.80 -1404.36 706480 -15604 15604 0.022586
709,888.00 709888 703242.51 -549.94 700394.44 9493.56 9493.56 0.013373
687,000.00 687000 697984.80 -1962.27 702692.57 -15692.568 15692.57 0.022842
698,700.00 698700 696825.77 -1721.30 696022.53 2677.47288 2677.47 0.003832
720,000.00 720000 702573.13 519.30 695104.47 24895.5292 24895.53 0.034577
768,900.00 768900 722834.70 6441.98 703092.43 65807.571 65807.57 0.085587
780,900.00 780900 744763.68 11088.08 729276.68 51623.3189 51623.32 0.066107
600,100.00 600100 709126.23 -2929.58 755851.76 -155751.76 155751.76 0.259543
640,500.00 640500 686487.66 -8842.28 706196.65 -65696.651 65696.65 0.102571
678,976.00 678976 678044.56 -8722.52 677645.38 1330.62152 1330.62 0.00196
690,000.00 690000 675525.43 -6861.51 669322.04 20677.9562 20677.96 0.029968
735,020.00 735020 688570.75 -889.46 668663.93 66356.0745 66356.07 0.090278
743,360.00 743360 704384.90 4121.63 687681.29 55678.7106 55678.71 0.074901
688,560.00 688560 702522.57 2326.44 708506.53 -19946.528 19946.53 0.028968
705,380.00 705380 705008.31 2374.23 704849.01 530.992305 530.99 0.000753
734,000.00 734000 715367.77 4769.80 707382.53 26617.4673 26617.47 0.036264
690,560.00 690560 711264.30 2107.82 720137.57 -29577.572 29577.57 0.042831
700,900.00 700900 709630.48 985.33 713372.12 -12472.118 12472.12 0.017794
745,480.00 745480 721075.07 4123.10 710615.81 34864.1899 34864.19 0.046767
718,000.00 718000 723038.72 3475.27 725198.17 -7198.1714 7198.17 0.010025
748,560.00 748560 733127.79 5459.41 726513.99 22046.0112 22046.01 0.029451
718,280.00 718280 732495.04 3631.76 738587.20 -20307.202 20307.20 0.028272
708,720.00 708720 727904.76 1165.15 736126.80 -27406.803 27406.80 0.038671
666,776.00 666776 710381.74 -4441.30 713372.12 -46596.118 46596.12 0.069883
700,079.00 700079 704182.00 -4968.83 710615.81 -10536.81 10536.81 0.015051
790,646.00 790646 726643.02 3260.12 725198.17 65447.8286 65447.83 0.082778
654,346.00 654346 707236.00 -3540.02 726513.99 -72167.989 72167.99 0.11029
734,778.00 734778 713020.59 -742.64 738587.20 -3809.2021 3809.20 0.005184
687,656.00 687656 704891.36 -2958.61 736126.80 -48470.803 48470.80 0.070487
635,678.00 635678 682056.32 -8921.54 729069.91 -93391.912 93391.91 0.146917
654,788.00 654788 667630.75 -10572.75 705940.44 -51152.435 51152.44 0.078121
690,807.00 690807 667182.70 -7535.34 699213.17 -8406.173 8406.17 0.012169
656,556.00 656556 658719.95 -7813.56 729903.14 -73347.144 73347.14 0.111715
676,655.00 676655 658630.97 -5496.19 703695.98 -27040.98 27040.98 0.039963
738,900.00 738900 678864.35 2222.68 712277.95 26622.0524 26622.05 0.036029
701932.75
total 1279242.29 1.866509
mad 36549.77983
mape 5.333%
alpha 0.4
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan
Xt St Bt Ft+m
jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480
feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 700238.40 -2496.64 706480
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 702600.26 -553.24 697741.76
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 696028.21 -2960.76 702047.01
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 695320.47 -2059.56 693067.44
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 703956.55 2218.70 693260.91
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 731265.15 12254.66 706175.25
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 758471.88 18235.49 743519.81
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 706064.42 -10021.69 776707.37
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 673825.64 -18908.53 696042.74
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 664540.67 -15059.11 654917.11
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 665688.94 -8576.16 649481.56
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 688275.67 3889.00 657112.78
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 712642.80 12080.25 692164.67
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 710257.83 6294.16 724723.05
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 712083.20 4506.64 716552.00
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723553.91 7292.27 716589.84
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 714731.70 846.48 730846.17
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 709706.91 -1502.03 715578.19
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723114.93 4461.99 708204.88
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 723746.15 2929.68 727576.92
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 735429.50 6431.15 726675.84
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732428.39 2658.25 741860.65
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 724539.98 -1560.42 735086.64
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 700498.14 -10552.99 715578.19
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693998.69 -8931.57 708204.88
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727298.67 7961.05 727576.92
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 702894.23 -4985.15 726675.84
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 712656.65 913.88 741860.65
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 703204.72 -3232.45 735086.64
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 674254.56 -13519.53 722979.57
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 658356.22 -14471.05 689945.15
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 662653.90 -6963.56 685067.12
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 656036.60 -6825.06 735259.72
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 660188.93 -2434.10 697909.09
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 690212.90 10549.12 713570.53
jan 2019 699972.27
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.5
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


xt-ft error MAD Xt
0 0 jan 2016 706,480.00 706480
-15604 15604 0.022586 feb 2016 690,876.00 690876
12146.24 12146.24 0.01711 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888
-15047.014 15047.01 0.021902 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000
5632.55526 5632.56 0.008061 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700
26739.0882 26739.09 0.037138 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
62724.7539 62724.75 0.081577 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
37380.1927 37380.19 0.047868 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
-176607.37 176607.37 0.294297 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
-55542.735 55542.74 0.086718 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
24058.8859 24058.89 0.035434 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
40518.4369 40518.44 0.058722 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
77907.2177 77907.22 0.105993 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
51195.3313 51195.33 0.06887 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
-36163.054 36163.05 0.05252 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
-11171.996 11172.00 0.015838 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
17410.158 17410.16 0.02372 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
-40286.175 40286.17 0.058338 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
-14678.187 14678.19 0.020942 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
37275.1162 37275.12 0.050001 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
-9576.9208 9576.92 0.013338 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
21884.1644 21884.16 0.029235 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
-23580.651 23580.65 0.032829 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
-26366.636 26366.64 0.037203 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
-48802.187 48802.19 0.073191 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
-8125.8838 8125.88 0.011607 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
63069.0792 63069.08 0.079769 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
-72329.836 72329.84 0.110538 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
-7082.6508 7082.65 0.009639 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
-47430.636 47430.64 0.068974 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
-87301.565 87301.57 0.137336 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
-35157.152 35157.15 0.053692 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
5739.87985 5739.88 0.008309 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
-78703.722 78703.72 0.119874 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
-21254.087 21254.09 0.031411 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
25329.4675 25329.47 0.03428 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
jan 2019
1339823.03 1.958863 total
38280.657966 mad
5.597% mape
level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
St Bt Ft+m xt-ft error MAD
706480 0 706480 0 0
698678.00 -3901.00 706480 -15604 15604 0.02258582
702332.50 -123.25 694777 15111 15111 0.02128646
694604.63 -3925.56 702209.25 -15209.25 15209.25 0.02213865
694689.53 -1920.33 690679.0625 8020.9375 8020.94 0.0114798
706384.60 4887.37 692769.20 27230.79688 27230.80 0.03782055
740085.99 19294.38 711271.97 57628.02734 57628.03 0.07494866
770140.18 24674.29 759380.36 21519.63574 21519.64 0.02755748
697457.23 -24004.33 794814.47 -194714.469 194714.47 0.32447004
656976.45 -32242.56 673452.90 -32952.90411 32952.90 0.05144872
651854.95 -18682.03 624733.90 54242.10435 54242.10 0.0798881
661586.46 -4475.26 633172.92 56827.0825 56827.08 0.08235809
696065.60 15001.94 657111.20 77908.80095 77908.80 0.10599548
727213.77 23075.06 711067.54 32292.45993 32292.46 0.04344121
719424.41 7642.85 750288.83 -61728.82556 61728.83 0.08964916
716223.63 2221.03 727067.26 -21687.26191 21687.26 0.0307455
726222.33 6109.87 718444.66 15555.33539 15555.34 0.02119256
711446.10 -4333.18 732332.20 -41772.19981 41772.20 0.06049033
704006.46 -5886.41 707112.92 -6212.917455 6212.92 0.0088642
721800.02 5953.58 698120.05 47359.95309 47359.95 0.06352948
722876.80 3515.18 727753.60 -9753.599916 9753.60 0.0135844
737475.99 9057.18 726391.98 22168.02356 22168.02 0.02961422
732406.59 1993.89 746533.17 -28253.17059 28253.17 0.03933448
721560.24 -4426.23 734400.48 -25680.47502 25680.48 0.03623501
691955.00 -17015.73 707112.92 -40336.91746 40336.92 0.06049545
687509.14 -10730.80 698120.05 1958.953085 1958.95 0.00279819
733712.17 17736.12 727753.60 62892.40008 62892.40 0.07954559
702897.14 -6539.45 726391.98 -72045.97644 72045.98 0.11010379
715567.84 3065.62 746533.17 -11755.17059 11755.17 0.01599826
703144.73 -4678.74 734400.48 -46744.47502 46744.48 0.06797654
667071.99 -20375.74 717134.01 -81456.00848 81456.01 0.12814036
650742.13 -18352.80 674939.27 -20151.27309 20151.27 0.03077526
661598.16 -3748.39 676778.34 14028.66288 14028.66 0.02030764
657202.89 -4071.83 751448.28 -94892.28486 94892.28 0.14453037
664893.03 1809.16 696357.69 -19702.68751 19702.69 0.02911777
702801.09 19858.61 718633.47 20266.53304 20266.53 0.02742798
698465.99
total 1375664.57 2.01587561
mad 39304.70209
mape 5.760%
alpha 0.6
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
Xt St Bt Ft+m xt-ft
jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480 0
feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 697117.60 -5617.44 706480 -15604
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 702532.86 1002.18 691500.16 18387.84
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 693614.02 -4950.43 703535.05 -16535.046
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 694685.43 -1337.32 688663.58 10036.4157
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 709339.24 8257.36 693348.11 26651.8909
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 748378.64 26726.58 717596.60 51303.4003
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 778582.09 28812.70 775105.22 5794.77991
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 683017.92 -45813.42 807394.79 -207294.79
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 639181.80 -44627.04 637204.49 3295.50747
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 645207.50 -14235.39 594554.76 84421.2434
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 666388.84 7014.65 630972.11 59027.8901
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 710373.40 29196.59 673403.49 61616.5084
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 741843.99 30561.00 739569.99 3790.01266
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 722098.00 376.80 772404.99 -83844.99
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 712217.92 -5777.33 722474.79 -17094.795
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 722976.24 4144.06 706440.59 27559.4094
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705184.12 -9017.65 727120.30 -36560.296
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 699006.59 -7313.58 696166.47 4733.52812
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723965.20 12049.74 691693.01 53786.9878
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 725205.98 5564.36 736014.94 -18014.944
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 741444.13 11968.64 730770.34 17789.6632
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732333.11 -679.16 753412.77 -35132.773
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717893.58 -8935.38 731653.95 -22933.949
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 683648.88 -24120.97 696166.47 -29390.472
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 683858.56 -9522.58 691693.01 8385.98775
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 744121.99 32349.03 736014.94 54631.056
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703196.01 -11615.98 730770.34 -76424.337
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 717498.81 3935.29 753412.77 -18634.773
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 701167.24 -8224.83 731653.95 -43997.949
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 658583.77 -28840.02 708958.20 -73280.198
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644770.30 -19824.09 659527.91 -4739.9061
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 664462.69 3885.80 674335.98 16471.0167
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 661272.99 -359.50 776471.02 -119915.02
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 670358.40 5307.44 691580.03 -14925.028
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 713606.34 28071.74 721434.10 17465.8993
jan 2019 692942.41
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.7
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


error MAD Xt St
0 jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480
15604 0.022586 feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 695557.20
18387.84 0.025902 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 703294.97
16535.05 0.024068 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 692825.29
10036.42 0.014364 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 695019.99
26651.89 0.037017 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 712391.61
51303.40 0.066723 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 755561.20
5794.78 0.007421 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 783448.09
207294.79 0.345434 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 664005.59
3295.51 0.005145 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 625139.10
84421.24 0.124336 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 647939.20
59027.89 0.085548 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 677704.06
61616.51 0.08383 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 724172.53
3790.01 0.005098 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 749266.33
83844.99 0.121769 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 715540.37
17094.79 0.024235 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 703976.20
27559.41 0.037547 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 721228.81
36560.30 0.052943 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 702254.48
4733.53 0.006753 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698069.88
53786.99 0.072151 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 729407.26
18014.94 0.02509 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727448.12
17789.66 0.023765 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 743622.80
35132.77 0.048912 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 729698.43
22933.95 0.03236 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 713234.09
29390.47 0.044078 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 676722.08
8385.99 0.011979 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 684207.00
54631.06 0.069097 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 757626.66
76424.34 0.116795 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 700422.03
18634.77 0.025361 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716985.79
43997.95 0.063982 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 697687.70
73280.20 0.115279 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 650598.14
4739.91 0.007239 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 642537.40
16471.02 0.023843 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 671335.27
119915.02 0.182642 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 665540.08
14925.03 0.022057 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 673468.62
17465.90 0.023638 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 720980.01
jan 2019
1359472.30 1.998988 total
38842.06576 mad
5.711% mape
alpha 0.8
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


Bt Ft+m xt-ft error MAD
0 706480 0 0 jan 2016
-7645.96 706480 -15604 15604 0.022586 feb 2016
3122.65 687911.24 21976.76 21976.76 0.030958 mar 2016
-6391.98 706417.62 -19417.624 19417.62 0.028264 apr 2016
-381.30 686433.30 12266.6962 12266.70 0.017556 mei 2016
12045.74 694638.69 25361.3113 25361.31 0.035224 jun 2016
33832.44 724437.35 44462.6533 44462.65 0.057826 jul 2016
29670.55 789393.64 -8493.6442 8493.64 0.010877 ags 2016
-74708.58 813118.65 -213018.65 213018.65 0.354972 sep 2016
-49619.12 589297.01 51202.9885 51202.99 0.079942 okt 2016
1074.33 575519.98 103456.015 103456.02 0.152371 nov 2016
21157.70 649013.52 40986.4756 40986.48 0.059401 des 2016
38875.24 698861.76 36158.2407 36158.24 0.049194 jan 2017
29228.23 763047.77 -19687.768 19687.77 0.026485 feb 2017
-14839.70 778494.56 -89934.564 89934.56 0.130613 mar 2017
-12546.83 700700.67 4679.33343 4679.33 0.006634 apr 2017
8312.78 691429.37 42570.6293 42570.63 0.057998 mei 2017
-10788.20 729541.59 -38981.59 38981.59 0.056449 jun 2017
-6165.68 691466.28 9433.72307 9433.72 0.013459 jul 2017
20086.46 691904.21 53575.7928 53575.79 0.071868 ags 2017
4654.54 749493.72 -31493.725 31493.72 0.043863 sep 2017
12718.64 732102.65 16457.3451 16457.35 0.021985 okt 2017
-5931.47 756341.43 -38061.433 38061.43 0.05299 nov 2017
-13304.48 723766.96 -15046.964 15046.96 0.021231 des 2017
-29549.75 691466.28 -24690.277 24690.28 0.037029 jan 2018
-3625.48 691904.21 8174.79278 8174.79 0.011677 feb 2018
50306.11 749493.72 41152.2752 41152.28 0.052049 mar 2018
-24951.40 732102.65 -77756.655 77756.65 0.118831 apr 2018
4109.21 756341.43 -21563.433 21563.43 0.029347 may 2018
-12275.90 723766.96 -36110.964 36110.96 0.052513 jun 2018
-36645.46 699929.61 -64251.611 64251.61 0.101076 jul 2018
-16636.15 647172.34 7615.66424 7615.66 0.011631 aug 2018
15167.66 680581.52 10225.4814 10225.48 0.014802 sep 2018
493.66 807932.77 -151376.77 151376.77 0.230562 oct 2018
5698.08 675470.63 1184.37241 1184.37 0.00175 nov 2018
34967.39 721095.00 17805.0025 17805.00 0.024097 dec 2018
685411.80 jan 2019
otal 1414235.22 2.088109
mad 40406.72066
mape 5.966%
ata Acuan 18 Bulan

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
Xt St Bt Ft+m xt-ft error MAD
706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480 0 0
690,876.00 690876 693996.80 -9986.56 706480 -15604 15604 0.022586
709,888.00 709888 704712.45 6575.21 684010.24 25877.76 25877.76 0.036453
687,000.00 687000 691857.53 -8968.89 711287.65 -24287.654 24287.65 0.035353
698,700.00 698700 695537.73 1150.38 682888.64 15811.3615 15811.36 0.02263
720,000.00 720000 715337.62 16069.99 696688.11 23311.8933 23311.89 0.032378
768,900.00 768900 761401.52 40065.12 731407.61 37492.388 37492.39 0.048761
780,900.00 780900 785013.33 26902.47 801466.64 -20566.641 20566.64 0.026337
600,100.00 600100 642463.16 -108659.64 811915.80 -211815.8 211815.80 0.352968
640,500.00 640500 619160.70 -40373.89 533803.52 106696.482 106696.48 0.166583
678,976.00 678976 658938.16 23747.19 578786.81 100189.189 100189.19 0.147559
690,000.00 690000 688537.07 28428.56 682685.35 7314.6496 7314.65 0.010601
735,020.00 735020 731409.13 39983.36 716965.63 18054.3659 18054.37 0.024563
743,360.00 743360 748966.50 22042.57 771392.49 -28032.485 28032.49 0.037711
688,560.00 688560 705049.81 -30724.83 771009.06 -82449.065 82449.06 0.119741
705,380.00 705380 699169.00 -10849.62 674324.98 31055.0207 31055.02 0.044026
734,000.00 734000 724863.88 18385.98 688319.38 45680.6246 45680.62 0.062235
690,560.00 690560 701097.97 -15335.53 743249.85 -52689.854 52689.85 0.0763
700,900.00 700900 697872.49 -5647.49 685762.44 15137.5566 15137.56 0.021597
745,480.00 745480 734829.00 28435.71 692225.00 53255.0026 53255.00 0.071437
718,000.00 718000 727052.94 -533.70 763264.71 -45264.71 45264.71 0.063043
748,560.00 748560 744151.85 13572.38 726519.24 22040.762 22040.76 0.029444
718,280.00 718280 726168.85 -11671.92 757724.23 -39444.231 39444.23 0.054915
708,720.00 708720 709875.38 -15369.15 714496.92 -5776.9219 5776.92 0.008151
666,776.00 666776 672322.05 -33116.50 694506.23 -27730.23 27730.23 0.041589
700,079.00 700079 687904.31 5842.51 639205.54 60873.4556 60873.46 0.086952
790,646.00 790646 771266.16 67857.99 693746.82 96899.1811 96899.18 0.122557
654,346.00 654346 691301.63 -50400.03 839124.15 -184778.15 184778.15 0.282386
734,778.00 734778 716002.72 9680.87 640901.60 93876.4 93876.40 0.127762
687,656.00 687656 695261.52 -14656.79 725683.59 -38027.586 38027.59 0.0553
635,678.00 635678 644663.35 -43409.90 680604.73 -44926.728 44926.73 0.070675
654,788.00 654788 644081.09 -9147.78 601253.45 53534.5494 53534.55 0.081759
690,807.00 690807 679632.26 26611.38 634933.31 55873.6933 55873.69 0.080882
656,556.00 656556 666493.53 -5188.71 706243.64 -49687.642 49687.64 0.075679
676,655.00 676655 673584.96 4635.41 661304.82 15350.182 15350.18 0.022685
738,900.00 738900 726764.07 43470.37 678220.37 60679.6303 60679.63 0.082122
770234.44
total 1810085.84 2.64572
mad 51716.73838
mape 7.559%
alpha 0.9
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan
Xt St Bt Ft+m
jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480
feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 692436.40 -12639.24 706480
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 706878.92 11734.34 679797.16
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 690161.33 -13872.40 718613.26
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 696458.89 4280.57 676288.93
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 718073.95 19881.61 700739.46
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 765805.56 44946.61 737955.55
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 783885.22 20766.36 810752.16
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 620555.16 -144920.42 804651.57
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 624013.47 -11379.56 475634.74
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 672341.79 42357.53 612633.92
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 692469.93 22351.08 714699.32
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 733000.10 38712.26 714821.01
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 746195.24 15746.85 771712.36
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 695898.21 -43692.64 761942.08
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700062.56 -621.35 652205.57
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 730544.12 27371.27 699441.21
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 697295.54 -27186.60 757915.39
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697820.89 -2245.84 670108.94
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 740489.51 38177.17 695575.05
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 724066.67 -10962.84 778666.67
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 745014.38 17756.66 713103.83
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 722729.10 -18281.08 762771.04
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708292.80 -14820.78 704448.02
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 669445.60 -36444.56 670108.94
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693371.20 17888.59 695575.05
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 782707.38 82191.42 778666.67
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 675401.28 -88356.35 713103.83
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 720004.69 31307.44 762771.04
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 694021.61 -20254.03 704448.02
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 639486.96 -51106.59 693472.02
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 648147.24 2683.59 633001.04
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 686809.38 35064.29 711259.79
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 663087.77 -17843.02 864898.79
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 673513.97 7599.28 587044.93
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 733121.33 54406.54 751312.13
jan 2019 673767.58
total
mad
mape
error |error| error mape
xt-ft error MAD
0 0
-15604 15604 0.022586
30090.84 30090.84 0.042388
-31613.256 31613.26 0.046016
22411.0716 22411.07 0.032075
19260.5364 19260.54 0.026751
30944.4484 30944.45 0.040245
-29852.164 29852.16 0.038228
-204551.57 204551.57 0.340862
164865.26 164865.26 0.257401
66342.0827 66342.08 0.097709
-24699.322 24699.32 0.035796
20198.9883 20198.99 0.027481
-28352.361 28352.36 0.038141
-73382.084 73382.08 0.106573
53174.4319 53174.43 0.075384
34558.7936 34558.79 0.047083
-67355.393 67355.39 0.097537
30791.0567 30791.06 0.043931
49904.9457 49904.95 0.066943
-60666.671 60666.67 0.084494
35456.1707 35456.17 0.047366
-44491.043 44491.04 0.061941
4271.98036 4271.98 0.006028
-3332.9433 3332.94 0.004999
4503.94573 4503.95 0.006433
11979.3286 11979.33 0.015151
-58757.829 58757.83 0.089796
-27993.043 27993.04 0.038097
-16792.02 16792.02 0.024419
-57794.021 57794.02 0.090917
21786.9558 21786.96 0.033273
-20452.791 20452.79 0.029607
-208342.79 208342.79 0.317327
89610.0686 89610.07 0.132431
-12412.131 12412.13 0.016798

1676596.35 2.482209
47902.75273
7.092%
alpha 0.1
Dengan Data Acuan 24 Bulan

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480
feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 704919.60 -156.04 706480
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 705276.00 -104.80 704763.56
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 703354.09 -286.51 705171.21
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 702630.82 -330.18 703067.58
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 704070.57 -153.19 702300.64
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 710415.65 496.64 703917.38
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 717911.05 1196.51 710912.28
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 707206.81 6.44 719107.57
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 700541.92 -660.69 707213.25
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 697790.71 -869.75 699881.23
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 696228.86 -938.96 696920.96
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 699262.92 -541.66 695289.91
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 703185.13 -95.27 698721.26
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 701636.88 -240.57 703089.87
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 701794.68 -200.73 701396.31
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 704834.56 123.33 701593.95
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 703518.10 -20.65 704957.89
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 703237.70 -46.62 703497.45
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 707419.97 376.27 703191.08
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 708816.62 478.30 707796.24
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 713221.43 870.95 709294.92
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 714511.14 912.83 714092.38
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 714753.58 845.79 715423.97
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 715599.37
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 690876 0.00 690876
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 692777.20 190.12 690876
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 692370.59 130.45 692967.32
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 693120.93 192.44 692501.03
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 695982.03 459.30 693313.37
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 703687.20 1183.89 696441.33
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 712473.98 1944.18 704871.09
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 702986.34 801.00 714418.16
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 697458.61 168.12 703787.34
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 695761.66 -18.38 697626.73
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 695168.95 -75.82 695743.27
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 699085.82 323.45 695093.13
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 703804.34 762.96 699409.27
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 702966.57 602.89 704567.30
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 703750.51 620.99 703569.46
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 707334.35 917.28 704371.50
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 706482.47 740.36 708251.63
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 706590.55 677.13 707222.83
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 711088.91 1059.26 707267.68
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 712733.35 1117.77 712148.17
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 717322.01 1464.86 713851.12
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 718736.19 1459.79 718786.87
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 719048.38 1345.03 720195.98
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 715031.67 808.86 720393.42
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 715840.53
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 709888 0.00 709888
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 707599.20 -228.88 709888
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 706503.29 -315.58 707370.32
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 707568.93 -177.46 706187.70
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 713542.33 437.63 707391.47
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 720671.96 1106.83 713979.95
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 709610.90 -109.96 721778.78
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 702600.85 -799.97 709500.94
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 699518.39 -1028.22 701800.88
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 697641.15 -1113.12 698490.17
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 700377.23 -728.20 696528.03
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 704020.12 -291.09 699649.02
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 702212.13 -442.78 703729.03
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 702130.41 -406.68 701769.34
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 704951.36 -83.91 701723.73
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 703436.70 -226.99 704867.44
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 702978.74 -250.09 703209.71
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 707003.79 177.43 702728.66
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 708263.10 285.62 707181.22
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 712549.84 685.73 708548.71
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 713740.01 736.17 713235.57
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 713900.57 678.61 714476.19
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 709798.86 200.58 714579.18
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 709007.40 101.38 709999.44
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 709108.77
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 687000 0.00 687000
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 688170.00 117.00 687000
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 691458.30 434.13 688287.00
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 699593.19 1204.21 691892.43
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 708807.65 2005.23 700797.39
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 699741.60 898.10 710812.89
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 694625.73 296.71 700639.70
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 693327.79 137.24 694922.44
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 693118.53 102.59 693465.03
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 697401.01 520.58 693221.12
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 702465.43 974.96 697921.59
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 701952.36 826.16 703440.39
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 703038.66 852.18 702778.52
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 706901.75 1153.27 703890.84
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 706305.52 978.32 708055.02
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 706645.45 914.48 707283.84
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 711351.94 1293.68 707559.93
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 713181.05 1347.22 712645.62
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 717931.45 1687.54 714528.28
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 719485.09 1674.15 719618.99
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 719915.32 1549.76 721159.24
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 715996.17 1002.87 721465.07
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 715307.03 833.67 716999.03
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 723591.23 1578.72 716140.70
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 725169.95
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 698700 0.00 698700
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 700830.00 213.00 698700
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 707828.70 891.57 701043.00
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 715938.24 1613.37 708720.27
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 705806.45 438.85 717551.61
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 699670.77 -218.60 706245.30
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 697404.55 -423.36 699452.17
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 696283.07 -493.18 696981.19
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 699712.90 -100.87 695789.89
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 703986.83 336.61 699612.03
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 702747.09 178.97 704323.43
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 703171.45 203.51 702926.06
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 706437.47 509.76 703374.96
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705308.51 345.89 706947.23
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 705178.96 298.34 705654.39
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 709477.57 698.37 705477.30
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 710958.35 776.61 710175.94
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 715417.46 1144.86 711734.96
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 716734.09 1162.04 716562.33
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 716978.52 1070.28 717896.13
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 712921.52 557.55 718048.80
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 712139.06 423.55 713479.07
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 720370.95 1204.38 712562.61
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 714852.40 532.09 721575.33
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 715384.49
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 720000 0.00 720000
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 724890.00 489.00 720000
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 730931.10 1044.21 725379.00
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 718787.78 -274.54 731975.31
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 710711.91 -1054.68 718513.24
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 706589.11 -1361.49 709657.24
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 703704.86 -1513.76 705227.63
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 705473.99 -1185.48 702191.10
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 708195.66 -794.76 704288.51
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705516.81 -983.17 707400.90
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 704618.28 -974.71 704533.64
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 706679.22 -671.14 703643.57
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 704463.27 -825.62 706008.07
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 703363.88 -853.00 703637.64
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 706807.79 -423.31 702510.88
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 707546.04 -307.15 706384.49
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 711371.00 106.06 707238.89
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 712157.35 174.09 711477.06
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 711970.29 137.97 712331.44
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 707575.04 -315.35 712108.27
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 706541.62 -387.16 707259.69
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 714603.62 457.76 706154.47
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 708989.84 -149.39 715061.38
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 711434.20 109.98 708840.45
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 711544.19
total
mad
mape
BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 768900 0.00 768900
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 770100.00 120.00 768900
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 753208.00 -1581.20 770220.00
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 740514.12 -2692.47 751626.80
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 731937.09 -3280.92 737821.65
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 724790.55 -3667.49 728656.16
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 722512.75 -3528.52 721123.06
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 721421.81 -3284.76 718984.24
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 715179.35 -3580.53 718137.05
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 710976.94 -3642.72 711598.82
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 710000.80 -3376.06 707334.22
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705018.26 -3536.71 706624.74
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 701423.40 -3542.52 701481.56
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 702640.79 -3066.53 697880.88
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 701416.83 -2882.27 699574.26
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 703537.10 -2382.02 698534.56
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 702867.57 -2210.77 701155.08
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 701463.12 -2130.14 700656.80
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 696077.29 -2455.71 699332.98
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 694267.32 -2391.13 693621.58
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 701753.17 -1403.44 691876.19
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 695749.36 -1863.47 700349.73
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 697975.10 -1454.55 693885.88
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 695634.09 -1543.20 696520.54
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 694090.89
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780900 0.00 780900
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 762820.00 -1808.00 780900
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 748960.80 -3013.12 761012.00
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 739250.51 -3682.84 745947.68
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 731010.91 -4138.51 735567.68
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 727687.15 -4057.04 726872.39
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 725603.11 -3859.74 723630.12
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 718425.03 -4191.57 721743.37
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 713348.11 -4280.11 714233.46
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 711561.20 -4030.79 709068.01
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705833.38 -4200.49 707530.42
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 701559.60 -4207.82 701632.88
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 702164.60 -3726.54 697351.78
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 700394.25 -3530.92 698438.06
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 702033.00 -3013.95 696863.34
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 700945.15 -2821.34 699019.05
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 699183.42 -2715.38 698123.80
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 693498.84 -3012.30 696468.04
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 691445.78 -2916.38 690486.54
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 698741.07 -1895.21 688529.41
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 692595.87 -2320.21 696845.86
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 694725.90 -1875.19 690275.66
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 692331.24 -1927.13 692850.71
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 684931.50 -2474.39 690404.11
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 682457.10
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 600100 0.00 600100
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 604140.00 404.00 600100
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 611987.20 1148.32 604544.00
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 620821.97 1916.96 613135.52
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 633967.04 3039.78 622738.93
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 647642.13 4103.31 637006.81
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 655426.90 4471.45 651745.44
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 664446.51 4926.27 659898.35
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 675835.51 5572.54 669372.78
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 682323.24 5664.06 681408.05
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 689278.57 5793.19 687987.30
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 700112.59 6297.27 695071.76
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 707568.87 6413.17 706409.86
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 717439.84 6758.95 713982.04
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 723606.91 6699.76 724198.79
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 728148.01 6483.90 730306.67
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 727846.31 5805.34 734631.90
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 730294.39 5469.61 733651.65
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 741252.20 6018.43 735764.00
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 737978.17 5089.19 747270.63
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 742238.42 5006.29 743067.35
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 741285.84 4410.40 747244.71
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 734694.42 3310.22 745696.24
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 729682.98 2478.06 738004.64
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 732161.03
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 640500 0.00 640500
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 644347.60 384.76 640500
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 649259.12 837.44 644732.36
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 658588.90 1686.67 650096.56
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 668584.02 2517.52 660275.58
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 672847.38 2692.10 671101.53
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 678523.53 2990.50 675539.48
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 686762.63 3515.36 681514.04
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 690306.20 3518.18 690278.00
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 694531.94 3588.94 693824.38
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 702856.80 4062.53 698120.88
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 708027.40 4173.34 706919.33
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 715836.66 4536.93 712200.73
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 720164.23 4516.00 720373.59
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 723084.21 4356.39 724680.23
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 721374.14 3749.75 727440.60
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 722619.40 3499.30 725123.89
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 732571.43 4144.57 726118.70
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 728479.00 3320.87 736716.00
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 732097.68 3350.65 731799.87
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 730669.10 2872.73 735448.33
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 723755.45 1894.09 733541.83
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 718563.38 1185.48 725649.54
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 716854.67 896.06 719748.86
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 717750.73
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 678976 0.00 678976
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 680078.40 110.24 678976
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 685671.78 658.55 680188.64
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 692033.30 1228.85 686330.33
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 692791.93 1181.83 693262.15
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 695114.38 1295.89 693973.76
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 700169.25 1671.79 696410.28
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 700712.93 1558.98 701841.04
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 702134.72 1545.26 702271.91
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 707859.98 1963.26 703679.98
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 710640.92 2045.03 709823.24
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 716273.35 2403.77 712685.94
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 718637.40 2399.80 718677.12
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 719805.48 2276.62 721037.20
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 716551.49 1723.56 722082.10
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 716455.45 1541.60 718275.06
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 725261.95 2268.09 717997.05
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 720211.64 1536.25 727530.04
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 723050.90 1666.55 721747.89
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 721011.31 1295.94 724717.45
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 713644.32 429.65 722307.25
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 708145.37 -163.21 714073.97
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 706264.64 -334.97 707982.16
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 700992.31 -828.70 705929.67
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 700163.61
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690000 0.00 690000
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 694502.00 450.20 690000
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 699792.98 934.28 694952.20
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 699510.53 812.61 700727.26
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700828.82 863.17 700323.14
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 704922.80 1186.25 701692.00
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 704554.15 1030.76 706109.05
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 705116.42 983.91 705584.91
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 710038.30 1377.71 706100.33
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 712074.41 1443.55 711416.01
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 717022.17 1793.97 713517.96
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 718762.52 1788.61 718816.14
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 719368.02 1670.30 720551.13
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 715612.09 1127.68 721038.32
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 715073.69 961.07 716739.76
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 723495.88 1707.18 716034.75
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 718117.35 998.61 725203.06
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 720682.17 1155.23 719115.96
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 718419.26 813.42 721837.40
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 710877.21 -22.13 719232.67
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 705248.37 -582.80 710855.08
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 703279.71 -721.39 704665.57
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 697958.09 -1181.41 702558.32
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 694764.51 -1382.63 696776.68
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 693381.89
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 735020 0.00 735020
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 735854.00 83.40 735020
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 731199.66 -390.37 735937.40
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 728266.36 -644.67 730809.29
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 728259.52 -580.88 727621.69
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 723966.77 -952.07 727678.64
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 720803.23 -1173.22 723014.70
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 722215.01 -914.72 719630.02
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 720970.27 -947.72 721300.30
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 722876.29 -662.35 720022.55
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 721820.55 -701.69 722213.95
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 719878.98 -825.67 721118.87
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 713825.58 -1348.45 719053.31
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 711237.32 -1472.43 712477.13
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 717853.00 -663.62 709764.89
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 710905.04 -1292.05 717189.38
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 712129.49 -1040.40 709612.99
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 708745.78 -1274.73 711089.09
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 700291.75 -1992.66 707471.05
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 693947.98 -2427.77 698299.08
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 691448.88 -2434.91 691520.20
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 685768.18 -2759.48 689013.98
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 682373.32 -2823.02 683008.69
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 685485.27 -2229.52 679550.30
jan 2019 683255.75
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.2
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 0 jan 2016 706,480.00 706480
-15604 15604 0.0225858 feb 2016 690,876.00 690876
5124.44 5124.44 0.0072187 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888
-18171.208 18171.21 0.0264501 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000
-4367.5799 4367.58 0.006251 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700
17699.3616 17699.36 0.0245824 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
64982.6153 64982.62 0.0845137 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
69987.7175 69987.72 0.0896244 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
-119007.57 119007.57 0.1983129 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
-66713.249 66713.25 0.1041581 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
-20905.229 20905.23 0.0307893 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
-6920.9592 6920.96 0.0100304 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
39730.0933 39730.09 0.0540531 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
44638.7396 44638.74 0.06005 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
-14529.866 14529.87 0.0211018 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
3983.68742 3983.69 0.0056476 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
32406.0487 32406.05 0.0441499 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
-14397.887 14397.89 0.0208496 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
-2597.4495 2597.45 0.0037059 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
42288.9184 42288.92 0.0567271 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
10203.7603 10203.76 0.0142114 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
39265.0804 39265.08 0.0524542 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
4187.61766 4187.62 0.0058301 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
-6703.9749 6703.97 0.0094593 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
-48823.369 48823.37 0.073223 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
664417.05 0.9527567 total
28887.697841 mad
4.142% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 0 feb 2016 690,876.00 690876
19012 19012 0.0267817 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888
-5967.32 5967.32 0.0086861 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000
6198.9652 6198.97 0.0088721 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700
26686.6322 26686.63 0.0370648 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
72458.6662 72458.67 0.0942368 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
76028.9102 76028.91 0.0973606 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
-114318.16 114318.16 0.1904985 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
-63287.34 63287.34 0.0988093 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
-18650.73 18650.73 0.0274689 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
-5743.2731 5743.27 0.0083236 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
39926.8707 39926.87 0.0543208 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
43950.7314 43950.73 0.0591244 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
-16007.301 16007.30 0.0232475 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
1810.54232 1810.54 0.0025668 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
29628.4961 29628.50 0.0403658 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
-17691.63 17691.63 0.0256193 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
-6322.8279 6322.83 0.009021 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
38212.3225 38212.32 0.0512587 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
5851.83474 5851.83 0.0081502 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
34708.8774 34708.88 0.0463675 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
-506.87303 506.87 0.0007057 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
-11475.98 11475.98 0.0161925 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
-53617.416 53617.42 0.0804129 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
-15761.534 15761.53 0.0225139 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
708063.70 1.0154554 total
30785.378257 mad
4.415% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 0 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888
-22888 22888 0.0333159 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000
-8670.32 8670.32 0.0124092 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700
13812.2952 13812.30 0.0191837 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
61508.5259 61508.53 0.0799955 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
66920.0483 66920.05 0.0856961 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
-121678.78 121678.78 0.2027642 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
-69000.941 69000.94 0.1077298 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
-22824.876 22824.88 0.0336166 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
-8490.1675 8490.17 0.0123046 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
38491.9714 38491.97 0.0523686 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
43710.9767 43710.98 0.0588019 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
-15169.028 15169.03 0.0220301 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
3610.65753 3610.66 0.0051187 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
32276.2682 32276.27 0.0439731 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
-14307.445 14307.44 0.0207186 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
-2309.7123 2309.71 0.0032954 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
42751.3442 42751.34 0.0573474 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
10818.7817 10818.78 0.0150679 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
40011.2875 40011.29 0.053451 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
5044.42993 5044.43 0.0070229 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
-5756.1862 5756.19 0.0081219 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
-47803.179 47803.18 0.071693 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
-9920.4405 9920.44 0.0141705 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
81537.2285 81537.23 0.1031274 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
707775.66 1.0201967 total
30772.854968 mad
4.436% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 0 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000
11700 11700 0.0167454 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700
31713 31713 0.0440458 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
77007.57 77007.57 0.1001529 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
80102.6073 80102.61 0.1025773 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
-110712.89 110712.89 0.1844907 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
-60139.7 60139.70 0.0938949 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
-15946.436 15946.44 0.023486 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
-3465.0336 3465.03 0.0050218 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
41798.8785 41798.88 0.0568677 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
45438.4107 45438.41 0.0611257 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
-14880.395 14880.39 0.0216109 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
2601.48475 2601.48 0.0036881 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
30109.1612 30109.16 0.0410207 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
-17495.022 17495.02 0.0253345 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
-6383.8358 6383.84 0.0091081 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
37920.0697 37920.07 0.0508666 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
5354.38398 5354.38 0.0074574 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
34031.723 34031.72 0.0454629 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
-1338.9892 1338.99 0.0018642 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
-12439.24 12439.24 0.0175517 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
-54689.074 54689.07 0.0820202 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
-16920.033 16920.03 0.0241687 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
74505.3037 74505.30 0.0942335 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
-70823.946 70823.95 0.1082362 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
786693.23 1.1127956 total
34204.053689 mad
4.838% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 0 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700
21300 21300 0.0295833 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
67857 67857 0.088252 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
72179.73 72179.73 0.0924315 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
-117451.61 117451.61 0.1957201 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
-65745.3 65745.30 0.1026468 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
-20476.169 20476.17 0.0301574 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
-6981.1883 6981.19 0.0101177 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
39230.1059 39230.11 0.0533728 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
43747.9697 43747.97 0.0588517 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
-15763.433 15763.43 0.0228933 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
2453.93954 2453.94 0.0034789 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
30625.0351 30625.04 0.0417235 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
-16387.229 16387.23 0.0237303 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
-4754.3948 4754.39 0.0067833 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
40002.7001 40002.70 0.0536603 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
7824.05857 7824.06 0.010897 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
36825.0406 36825.04 0.0491945 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
1717.67396 1717.67 0.0023914 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
-9176.1327 9176.13 0.0129475 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
-51272.797 51272.80 0.0768966 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
-13400.068 13400.07 0.0191408 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
78083.3898 78083.39 0.098759 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
-67229.332 67229.33 0.1027428 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
19393.5109 19393.51 0.0263937 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
830484.30 1.1863725 total
36108.012948 mad
5.158% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 0 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
48900 48900 0.0635973 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
55521 55521 0.0710987 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
-131875.31 131875.31 0.2197556 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
-78013.236 78013.24 0.1218005 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
-30681.237 30681.24 0.0451875 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
-15227.625 15227.63 0.022069 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
32828.9013 32828.90 0.044664 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
39071.4862 39071.49 0.0525607 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
-18840.902 18840.90 0.0273628 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
846.357249 846.36 0.0011999 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
30356.4272 30356.43 0.0413575 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
-15448.074 15448.07 0.0223704 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
-2737.6446 2737.64 0.0039059 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
42969.1184 42969.12 0.0576395 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
11615.514 11615.51 0.0161776 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
41321.1148 41321.11 0.0552008 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
6802.94443 6802.94 0.0094712 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
-3611.4384 3611.44 0.0050957 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
-45332.268 45332.27 0.0679873 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
-7180.6929 7180.69 0.010257 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
84491.532 84491.53 0.1068639 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
-60715.381 60715.38 0.0927879 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
25937.5514 25937.55 0.0352998 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
-23888.185 23888.19 0.0347386 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
830325.76 1.1937104 total
36101.119853 mad
5.190% mape
error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
0 0 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
-12000 12000 0.0153669 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
170120 170120 0.2834861 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
111126.8 111126.80 0.1735001 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
58845.652 58845.65 0.0866682 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
38656.1623 38656.16 0.0560234 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
-13896.94 13896.94 0.0189069 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
-24375.763 24375.76 0.0327913 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
29577.0543 29577.05 0.0429549 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
6218.81925 6218.82 0.0088163 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
-26665.781 26665.78 0.0363294 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
16064.7375 16064.74 0.0232633 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
581.556318 581.56 0.0008297 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
-47599.122 47599.12 0.0638503 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
-18425.742 18425.74 0.0256626 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
-50025.442 50025.44 0.0668289 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
-17124.918 17124.92 0.0238416 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
-8063.1967 8063.20 0.0113771 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
32556.9842 32556.98 0.0488275 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
-6457.4228 6457.42 0.0092238 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
-98769.815 98769.81 0.1249229 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
46003.7303 46003.73 0.0703049 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
-40892.116 40892.12 0.0556523 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
8864.54298 8864.54 0.012891 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
58412.8909 58412.89 0.0918907 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
882912.30 1.2923195 total
38387.49118 mad
5.619% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 0 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
180800 180800 0.3012831 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
120512 120512 0.188153 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
66971.68 66971.68 0.0986363 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
45567.6752 45567.68 0.0660401 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
-8147.6059 8147.61 0.0110849 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
-19729.883 19729.88 0.0265415 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
33183.3668 33183.37 0.0481924 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
8853.45782 8853.46 0.0125513 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
-24931.995 24931.99 0.0339673 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
16970.4176 16970.42 0.0245749 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
732.884743 732.88 0.0010456 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
-48128.224 48128.22 0.06456 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
-19561.939 19561.94 0.027245 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
-51696.664 51696.66 0.0690615 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
-19260.949 19260.95 0.0268154 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
-10596.196 10596.20 0.0149512 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
29692.0431 29692.04 0.0445308 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
-9592.4619 9592.46 0.013702 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
-102116.59 102116.59 0.1291559 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
42499.8572 42499.86 0.0649501 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
-44502.337 44502.34 0.0605657 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
5194.71111 5194.71 0.0075542 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
54726.1075 54726.11 0.0860909 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
27669.1032 27669.10 0.0422566 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
963969.05 1.4212532 total
41911.697705 mad
6.179% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 0 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
-40400 40400 0.0630757 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
-74432 74432 0.1096239 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
-76864.48 76864.48 0.1113978 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
-112281.07 112281.07 0.1527592 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
-106353.19 106353.19 0.1430709 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
-36814.559 36814.56 0.053466 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
-45481.65 45481.65 0.0644782 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
-64627.216 64627.22 0.088048 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
-9151.9527 9151.95 0.0132529 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
-12912.696 12912.70 0.018423 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
-50408.239 50408.24 0.0676185 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
-11590.144 11590.14 0.0161423 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
-34577.958 34577.96 0.0461926 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
5918.78927 5918.79 0.0082402 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
21586.6739 21586.67 0.0304587 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
67855.9034 67855.90 0.1017672 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
33572.6509 33572.65 0.0479555 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
-54882.003 54882.00 0.0694141 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
92924.6287 92924.63 0.1420115 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
8289.35087 8289.35 0.0112814 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
59588.7073 59588.71 0.0866548 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
110018.241 110018.24 0.1730723 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
83216.639 83216.64 0.1270894 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
41354.0308 41354.03 0.0598634 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
1213748.74 1.7454942 total
52771.684132 mad
7.589% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 0 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
-38476 38476 0.0566677 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
-45267.64 45267.64 0.0656053 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
-84923.44 84923.44 0.115539 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
-83084.425 83084.42 0.1117688 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
-17458.467 17458.47 0.025355 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
-29840.521 29840.52 0.0423042 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
-52485.964 52485.96 0.0715068 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
-282.0029 282.00 0.0004084 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
-7075.618 7075.62 0.010095 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
-47359.115 47359.12 0.0635284 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
-11080.672 11080.67 0.0154327 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
-36359.266 36359.27 0.0485723 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
2093.5918 2093.59 0.0029147 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
15960.228 15960.23 0.0225198 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
60664.5983 60664.60 0.090982 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
25044.8856 25044.89 0.0357744 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
-64527.305 64527.30 0.0816134 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
82369.9971 82370.00 0.1258814 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
-2978.1313 2978.13 0.0040531 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
47792.3345 47792.33 0.0695004 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
97863.8304 97863.83 0.1539519 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
70861.5384 70861.54 0.1082206 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
28941.8602 28941.86 0.0418957 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
61194.7312 61194.73 0.0932057 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
952791.43 1.3640907 total
41425.714399 mad
5.931% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 0 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
-11024 11024 0.0159768 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
-54831.36 54831.36 0.0745985 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
-57029.67 57029.67 0.0767188 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
4702.14694 4702.15 0.006829 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
-11406.239 11406.24 0.0161703 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
-37589.724 37589.72 0.0512122 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
11281.037 11281.04 0.0163361 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
1371.91143 1371.91 0.0019574 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
-41800.021 41800.02 0.0560713 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
-8176.7595 8176.76 0.0113882 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
-35874.057 35874.06 0.0479241 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
397.11627 397.12 0.0005529 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
12317.2008 12317.20 0.0173795 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
55306.1049 55306.10 0.0829456 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
18196.0576 18196.06 0.0259914 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
-72648.946 72648.95 0.0918856 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
73184.0409 73184.04 0.111843 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
-13030.112 13030.11 0.0177334 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
37061.4523 37061.45 0.0538953 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
86629.2453 86629.25 0.1362785 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
59285.9665 59285.97 0.0905422 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
17175.1559 17175.16 0.0248625 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
49373.6748 49373.67 0.075201 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
23508.6051 23508.61 0.0347424 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
769692.00 1.1042934 total
33464.869477 mad
4.801% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 0 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
-45020 45020 0.06125 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
-48407.8 48407.8 0.0651203 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
12167.258 12167.26 0.0176706 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
-5056.8624 5056.86 0.007169 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
-32308.002 32308.00 0.0440164 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
15549.0522 15549.05 0.0225166 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
4684.9105 4684.91 0.0066841 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
-39379.666 39379.67 0.0528246 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
-6583.9884 6583.99 0.0091699 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
-35042.039 35042.04 0.0468126 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
536.136649 536.14 0.0007464 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
11831.133 11831.13 0.0166937 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
54262.3184 54262.32 0.0813801 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
16660.762 16660.76 0.0237984 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
-74611.246 74611.25 0.0943674 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
70857.0586 70857.06 0.1082868 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
-15662.037 15662.04 0.0213153 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
34181.3964 34181.40 0.0497071 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
83554.6729 83554.67 0.1314418 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
56067.075 56067.08 0.0856263 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
13858.5662 13858.57 0.0200614 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
46002.3226 46002.32 0.0700661 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
20121.6801 20121.68 0.029737 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
-45518.115 45518.11 0.0616025 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
742405.98 1.066462 total
32278.521044 mad
4.637% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 0 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
-8340 8340 0.0112193 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
47377.4 47377.4 0.0688065 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
25429.286 25429.29 0.0360505 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
-6378.3095 6378.31 0.0086898 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
37118.6377 37118.64 0.0537515 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
22114.7038 22114.70 0.0315519 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
-25849.984 25849.98 0.0346756 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
3300.29728 3300.30 0.0045965 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
-28537.453 28537.45 0.0381231 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
3933.94672 3933.95 0.0054769 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
12398.8668 12398.87 0.0174947 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
52277.3062 52277.31 0.0784031 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
12398.1286 12398.13 0.0177096 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
-80881.113 80881.11 0.1022975 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
62843.3816 62843.38 0.09604 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
-25165.008 25165.01 0.0342484 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
23433.0923 23433.09 0.0340768 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
71793.0513 71793.05 0.1129393 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
43511.0838 43511.08 0.0664506 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
713.202284 713.20 0.0010324 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
32457.9769 32457.98 0.0494367 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
6353.69423 6353.69 0.0093899 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
-59349.697 59349.70 0.0803217 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
jan 2019
691955.62 0.9927825 total
30085.026897 mad
4.316% mape
alpha 0.3
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bul

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


706480 0 706480 0 0 jan
703359.20 -624.16 706480 -15604 15604 0.0225858 feb
704165.63 -338.04 702735.04 7152.96 7152.96 0.0100762 mar
700462.07 -1011.15 703827.59 -16827.59 16827.59 0.0244943 apr
699300.74 -1041.18 699450.93 -750.9271 750.93 0.0010747 mei
702607.65 -171.56 698259.56 21740.4406 21740.44 0.0301951 jun
715728.87 2486.99 702436.08 66463.9172 66463.92 0.0864403 jul
730752.69 4994.36 718215.86 62684.1417 62684.14 0.0802717 ags
708617.64 -431.52 735747.04 -135647.04 135647.04 0.2260407 sep
694648.89 -3138.97 708186.11 -67686.111 67686.11 0.105677 okt
689003.14 -3640.33 691509.92 -12533.921 12533.92 0.01846 nov
686290.25 -3454.84 685362.81 4637.18894 4637.19 0.0067206 des
693272.33 -1367.45 682835.41 52184.589 52184.59 0.0709975 jan
702195.90 690.75 691904.87 51455.1254 51455.13 0.0692197 feb
700021.32 117.68 702886.65 -14326.65 14326.65 0.0208067 mar
701187.20 327.32 700139.01 5240.99491 5240.99 0.00743 apr
708011.62 1626.74 701514.53 32485.4714 32485.47 0.0442581 mei
705822.69 863.61 709638.37 -19078.366 19078.37 0.0276274 jun
705529.04 632.16 706686.30 -5786.3018 5786.30 0.0082555 jul
714024.96 2204.91 706161.20 39318.8019 39318.80 0.0527429 ags
716583.89 2275.71 716229.87 1770.13276 1770.13 0.0024654 sep
724799.69 3463.73 718859.61 29700.3921 29700.39 0.0396767 okt
726266.73 3064.39 728263.42 -9983.416 9983.42 0.0138991 nov
725208.90 2239.95 729331.13 -20611.126 20611.13 0.0290822 des
706686.30 -39910.302 39910.30 0.0598556 jan
total 693669.61 0.9984975
mad 30159.548265
mape 4.341%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


690876 0.00 690876 0 0 feb
694678.40 760.48 690876 19012 19012 0.0267817 mar
693751.10 422.92 695438.88 -8438.88 8438.88 0.0122837 apr
695079.22 603.96 694174.03 4525.9712 4525.97 0.0064777 mei
700546.55 1576.64 695683.19 24316.8133 24316.81 0.0337734 jun
715478.55 4247.71 702123.19 66776.8145 66776.81 0.0868472 jul
731961.01 6694.66 719726.26 61173.7428 61173.74 0.0783375 ags
710944.53 1152.43 738655.66 -138555.66 138555.66 0.2308876 sep
697777.57 -1711.45 712096.96 -71596.963 71596.96 0.1117829 okt
692648.10 -2395.05 696066.12 -17090.124 17090.12 0.0251704 nov
690202.44 -2405.17 690253.05 -253.04761 253.05 0.0003667 des
697241.81 -516.26 687797.26 47222.7354 47222.74 0.0642469 jan
706052.44 1349.11 696725.55 46634.4524 46634.45 0.0627347 feb
703633.24 595.45 707401.55 -18841.552 18841.55 0.0273637 mar
704458.95 641.50 704228.69 1151.30638 1151.31 0.0016322 apr
710880.37 1797.49 705100.46 28899.5409 28899.54 0.0393727 mei
708254.28 912.77 712677.85 -22117.853 22117.85 0.0320289 jun
707513.64 582.09 709167.05 -8267.0542 8267.05 0.0117949 jul
715572.59 2077.46 708095.73 37384.2671 37384.27 0.0501479 ags
717720.04 2091.46 717650.05 349.953473 349.95 0.0004874 sep
725561.20 3241.40 719811.50 28748.5044 28748.50 0.0384051 okt
726698.08 2820.49 728802.60 -10522.595 10522.60 0.0146497 nov
725358.86 1988.55 729518.57 -20798.571 20798.57 0.0293467 des
715233.13 -434.30 727347.41 -60571.408 60571.41 0.0908422 jan
714798.82 -14719.822 14719.82 0.0210259 feb
total 743249.81 1.0757617
mad 32315.209332
mape 4.677%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


709888 0.00 709888 0 0 mar
705310.40 -915.52 709888 -22888 22888 0.0333159 apr
703255.90 -1143.32 704394.88 -5694.88 5694.88 0.0081507 mei
705690.07 -427.82 702112.59 17887.4112 17887.41 0.0248436 jun
717989.80 2117.69 705262.25 63637.7477 63637.75 0.0827647 jul
732265.99 4549.39 720107.49 60792.507 60792.51 0.0778493 ags
709472.31 -919.22 736815.39 -136715.39 136715.39 0.227821 sep
694942.47 -3641.35 708553.08 -68053.085 68053.08 0.1062499 okt
688836.10 -4134.35 691301.12 -12325.12 12325.12 0.0181525 nov
685761.40 -3922.42 684701.74 5298.25592 5298.26 0.0076786 des
692475.18 -1795.18 681838.97 53181.0267 53181.03 0.0723532 jan
701216.00 312.02 690680.00 52680.0022 52680.00 0.0708674 feb
698934.41 -206.70 701528.02 -12968.017 12968.02 0.0188335 mar
700058.17 59.39 698727.71 6652.28758 6652.29 0.0094308 apr
706894.05 1414.69 700117.56 33882.4401 33882.44 0.0461614 mei
704758.99 704.74 708308.74 -17748.736 17748.74 0.0257019 jun
704550.98 522.19 705463.73 -4563.7266 4563.73 0.0065112 jul
713154.54 2138.46 705073.17 40406.8296 40406.83 0.0542024 ags
715834.40 2246.74 715293.00 2707.00136 2707.00 0.0037702 sep
724176.91 3465.90 718081.14 30478.8587 30478.86 0.0407167 okt
725770.25 3091.38 727642.81 -9362.8097 9362.81 0.013035 nov
724833.31 2285.72 728861.63 -20141.632 20141.63 0.0284197 des
715050.42 -128.00 727119.02 -60343.025 60343.02 0.0904997 jan
711953.73 -721.74 714922.42 -14843.418 14843.42 0.0212025 feb
711232.00 79414.0044 79414.00 0.1004419 mar
total 753252.20 1.0885319
mad 32750.095776
mape 4.733%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


687000 0.00 687000 0 0 apr
689340.00 468.00 687000 11700 11700 0.0167454 mei
695846.40 1675.68 689808.00 30192 30192 0.0419333 jun
711797.66 4530.80 697522.08 71377.92 71377.92 0.0928312 jul
729242.77 7113.66 716328.46 64571.5392 64571.54 0.0826886 ags
709105.14 1663.40 736356.43 -136256.43 136256.43 0.2270562 sep
696714.83 -1147.34 710768.54 -70268.543 70268.54 0.1097089 okt
692249.20 -1811.00 695567.49 -16591.494 16591.49 0.0244361 nov
690350.56 -1828.53 690438.19 -438.19493 438.19 0.0006351 des
697821.62 31.39 688522.03 46497.972 46497.97 0.0632608 jan
706954.41 1851.67 697853.01 45506.9867 45506.99 0.061218 feb
704756.86 1041.83 708806.08 -20246.081 20246.08 0.0294035 mar
705714.95 1025.08 705798.69 -418.69192 418.69 0.0005936 apr
712192.03 2115.48 706740.03 27259.967 27259.97 0.0371389 mei
709558.00 1165.58 714307.50 -23747.505 23747.50 0.0343888 jun
708758.87 772.63 710723.58 -9823.5816 9823.58 0.0140157 jul
716721.20 2210.57 709531.50 35948.5001 35948.50 0.048222 ags
718745.42 2173.30 718931.77 -931.77465 931.77 0.0012977 sep
726446.98 3278.95 720918.72 27641.2766 27641.28 0.0369259 okt
727436.75 2821.12 729725.93 -11445.934 11445.93 0.0159352 nov
725950.29 1959.60 730257.86 -21537.864 21537.86 0.0303898 des
715683.12 -485.75 727909.89 -61133.894 61133.89 0.0916858 jan
712173.69 -1090.49 715197.36 -15118.362 15118.36 0.0215952 feb
726995.76 2092.02 711083.20 79562.7974 79562.80 0.1006301 mar
729087.79 -74741.787 74741.79 0.1142236 apr
total 828217.31 1.1827357
mad 36009.448082
mape 5.142%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


698700 0.00 698700 0 0 mei
702960.00 852.00 698700 21300 21300 0.0295833 jun
716829.60 3455.52 703812.00 65088 65088 0.0846508 jul
732408.10 5880.12 720285.12 60614.88 60614.88 0.0776218 ags
710650.57 352.59 738288.21 -138188.21 138188.21 0.2302753 sep
696902.52 -2467.54 711003.16 -70503.156 70503.16 0.1100752 okt
691343.19 -3085.90 694434.99 -15458.985 15458.99 0.0227681 nov
688605.83 -3016.19 688257.29 1742.71081 1742.71 0.0025257 des
695475.71 -1038.98 685589.64 49430.3591 49430.36 0.0672504 jan
704221.39 917.95 694436.74 48923.2634 48923.26 0.0658137 feb
701823.48 254.78 705139.34 -16579.344 16579.34 0.0240783 mar
702738.60 386.85 702078.26 3301.74429 3301.74 0.0046808 apr
709300.36 1621.83 703125.46 30874.545 30874.54 0.0420634 mei
706849.76 807.34 710922.20 -20362.196 20362.20 0.0294865 jun
706305.68 537.06 707657.10 -6757.1015 6757.10 0.0096406 jul
714570.19 2082.55 706842.74 38637.2585 38637.26 0.0518287 ags
716922.20 2136.44 716652.74 1347.25608 1347.26 0.0018764 sep
724958.91 3316.50 719058.64 29501.3639 29501.36 0.0394108 okt
726276.32 2916.68 728275.40 -9995.4044 9995.40 0.0139157 nov
725098.40 2097.76 729193.00 -20473.003 20473.00 0.0288873 des
715112.13 -319.05 727196.16 -60420.161 60420.16 0.0906154 jan
711850.27 -907.61 714793.08 -14714.082 14714.08 0.0210177 feb
726883.32 2280.52 710942.66 79703.345 79703.34 0.1008079 mar
714200.28 -712.19 729163.85 -74817.847 74817.85 0.1143399 apr
713488.09 21289.9128 21289.91 0.0289746 may
total 878734.22 1.2632137
mad 38205.835537
mape 5.492%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


720000 0.00 720000 0 0 jun
729780.00 1956.00 720000 48900 48900 0.0635973 jul
741568.80 3922.56 731736.00 49164 49164 0.0629581 ags
716413.09 -1893.09 745491.36 -145391.36 145391.36 0.2422786 sep
699715.99 -4853.89 714519.99 -74019.994 74019.99 0.115566 okt
691684.88 -5489.34 694862.10 -15886.101 15886.10 0.0233971 nov
686956.43 -5337.16 686195.54 3804.45758 3804.46 0.0055137 des
692299.42 -3201.13 681619.27 53400.7259 53400.73 0.0726521 jan
699950.63 -1030.66 689098.29 54261.7116 54261.71 0.0729952 feb
696847.97 -1445.06 698919.97 -10359.968 10359.97 0.0150458 mar
697398.33 -1045.98 695402.91 9977.08641 9977.09 0.0141443 apr
703881.88 459.93 696352.35 37647.6468 37647.65 0.0512911 mei
701585.45 -91.34 704341.81 -13781.811 13781.81 0.0199574 jun
701375.28 -115.11 701494.10 -594.10443 594.10 0.0008476 jul
710104.14 1653.68 701260.18 44219.8248 44219.82 0.0593173 ags
713006.26 1903.37 711757.82 6242.17526 6242.18 0.0086938 sep
721639.71 3249.39 714909.63 33650.3686 33650.37 0.0449535 okt
723567.27 2985.02 724889.09 -6609.0915 6609.09 0.0092013 nov
722985.84 2271.73 726552.30 -17832.296 17832.30 0.0251613 des
713561.25 -67.53 725257.57 -58481.568 58481.57 0.087708 jan
710810.78 -604.12 713493.72 -13414.722 13414.72 0.0191617 feb
726294.53 2613.45 710206.66 80439.3429 80439.34 0.1017388 mar
713995.58 -369.03 728907.98 -74561.979 74561.98 0.1139489 apr
717856.85 477.03 713626.56 21151.4432 21151.44 0.0287862 may
718333.88 -30677.877 30677.88 0.0446122 jun
total 873791.78 1.2589149
mad 37990.946823
mape 5.474%
level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN
768900 0.00 768900 0 0 jul
771300.00 480.00 768900 -12000 12000 0.0153669 ags
737444.00 -6387.20 771780.00 171680 171680 0.2860857 sep
712945.44 -10009.47 731056.80 90556.8 90556.80 0.1413845 okt
698143.97 -10967.87 702935.97 23959.968 23959.97 0.0352884 nov
687740.88 -10854.91 687176.10 -2823.8963 2823.90 0.0040926 des
688512.77 -8529.55 676885.97 -58134.032 58134.03 0.0790918 jan
692658.58 -5994.48 679983.22 -63376.779 63376.78 0.0852572 feb
687043.28 -5918.65 686664.09 -1895.9057 1895.91 0.0027534 mar
685975.70 -4948.43 681124.63 -24255.371 24255.37 0.0343862 apr
691621.82 -2829.52 681027.27 -52972.728 52972.73 0.0721699 mei
689145.84 -2758.81 688792.30 -1767.7046 1767.70 0.0025598 jun
689289.62 -2178.29 686387.02 -14512.978 14512.98 0.0207062 jul
698785.06 156.45 687111.32 -58368.677 58368.68 0.0782968 ags
702753.21 918.79 698941.51 -19058.49 19058.49 0.0265439 sep
712649.60 2714.31 703672.00 -44888 44888.00 0.0599658 okt
715947.13 2830.96 715363.91 -2916.0882 2916.09 0.0040598 nov
716766.47 2428.63 718778.08 10058.0847 10058.08 0.0141919 des
708711.28 331.87 719195.10 52419.0996 52419.10 0.0786158 jan
707250.32 -26.70 709043.15 8964.14755 8964.15 0.0128045 feb
723908.10 3310.20 707223.62 -83422.38 83422.38 0.1055117 mar
712643.83 395.31 727218.29 72872.2932 72872.29 0.1113666 apr
717386.91 1264.86 713039.14 -21738.86 21738.86 0.0295856 may
712452.62 25.03 718651.77 30995.7719 30995.77 0.0450745 jun
712477.65 76799.6465 76799.65 0.1208153 jul
total 923638.05 1.3451595
mad 40158.176262
mape 5.849%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


780900 0.00 780900 0 0 ags
744740.00 -7232.00 780900 180800 180800 0.3012831 sep
718106.40 -11112.32 737508.00 97008 97008 0.1514567 okt
701390.46 -12233.04 706994.08 28018.08 28018.08 0.0412652 nov
689325.94 -12199.34 689157.42 -842.5792 842.58 0.0012211 des
688705.28 -9883.60 677126.60 -57893.403 57893.40 0.0787644 jan
691729.34 -7302.07 678821.67 -64538.327 64538.33 0.0868197 feb
685253.81 -7136.76 684427.27 -4132.7321 4132.73 0.006002 mar
683569.64 -6046.24 678117.05 -27262.947 27262.95 0.03865 apr
688818.72 -3787.18 677523.40 -56476.601 56476.60 0.0769436 mei
686137.23 -3566.04 685031.54 -5528.4608 5528.46 0.0080058 jun
686236.95 -2832.89 682571.19 -18328.81 18328.81 0.0261504 jul
695819.25 -349.85 683404.06 -62075.937 62075.94 0.0832698 ags
699975.52 551.37 695469.40 -22530.601 22530.60 0.0313797 sep
710133.51 2472.70 700526.89 -48033.108 48033.11 0.0641673 okt
713740.97 2699.65 712606.21 -5673.7892 5673.79 0.0078991 nov
714896.49 2390.82 716440.62 7720.61724 7720.62 0.0108937 des
707185.05 370.37 717287.32 50511.3177 50511.32 0.0757546 jan
706060.14 71.31 707555.43 7476.42534 7476.43 0.0106794 feb
723034.36 3451.90 706131.45 -84514.546 84514.55 0.106893 mar
712058.21 566.29 726486.26 72140.2596 72140.26 0.1102479 apr
717055.19 1452.43 712624.49 -22153.507 22153.51 0.0301499 may
712337.30 218.36 718507.62 30851.6205 30851.62 0.0448649 jun
697180.13 -2856.75 712555.66 76877.6575 76877.66 0.120938 jul
694323.38 39535.3807 39535.38 0.0603789 aug
total 1031389.32 1.5136994
mad 44843.014121
mape 6.581%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


600100 0.00 600100 0 0 sep
608180.00 1616.00 600100 -40400 40400 0.0630757 okt
623632.00 4383.20 609796.00 -69180 69180 0.1018887 nov
640412.16 6862.59 628015.20 -61984.8 61984.80 0.089833 des
664823.80 10372.40 647274.75 -87745.248 87745.25 0.119378 jan
688828.96 13098.95 675196.20 -68163.796 68163.80 0.0916969 feb
699254.33 12564.24 701927.92 13367.9166 13367.92 0.0194143 mar
710530.86 12306.69 711818.57 6438.57039 6438.57 0.0091278 apr
725070.04 12753.19 722837.55 -11162.449 11162.45 0.0152077 mei
728370.59 10862.66 737823.23 47263.2328 47263.23 0.0684419 jun
731566.60 9329.33 739233.25 38333.2492 38333.25 0.0546915 jul
741812.75 9512.70 740895.93 -4584.0677 4584.07 0.0061491 ags
744660.35 8179.68 751325.44 33325.4416 33325.44 0.0464143 sep
751984.03 8008.48 752840.03 4280.0313 4280.03 0.0057177 okt
751650.00 6339.98 759992.50 41712.5018 41712.50 0.0580728 nov
748135.98 4369.18 757989.98 49269.9782 49269.98 0.0695197 des
735359.33 940.01 752505.16 85729.1601 85729.16 0.1285727 jan
729055.27 -508.80 736299.34 36220.3393 36220.34 0.0517375 feb
740966.38 1975.18 728546.47 -62099.531 62099.53 0.0785428 mar
725222.44 -1568.64 742941.55 88595.5541 88595.55 0.1353956 apr
725878.64 -1123.68 723653.80 -11124.2 11124.20 0.0151395 may
717335.17 -2607.63 724754.96 37098.9647 37098.96 0.0539499 jun
698917.63 -5769.62 714727.54 79049.5378 79049.54 0.1243547 jul
685476.01 -7304.02 693148.01 38360.0148 38360.01 0.0585839 aug
678172.00 -12635.004 12635.00 0.0182902 sep
total 1015488.59 1.4649056
mad 44151.677616
mape 6.369%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


640500 0.00 640500 0 0 okt
648195.20 1539.04 640500 -38476 38476 0.0566677 nov
657787.39 3149.67 649734.24 -40265.76 40265.76 0.0583562 des
675753.65 6112.99 660937.06 -74082.938 74082.94 0.1007904 jan
694165.31 8572.72 681866.64 -61493.362 61493.36 0.0827235 feb
699902.43 8005.60 702738.03 14178.0327 14178.03 0.0205908 mar
707402.42 7904.48 707908.03 2528.02721 2528.03 0.0035839 apr
719045.52 8652.20 715306.90 -18693.098 18693.10 0.0254674 mei
720270.18 7166.69 727697.73 37137.7253 37137.73 0.0537791 jun
722129.50 6105.22 727436.88 26536.8752 26536.88 0.0378611 jul
731683.78 6795.03 728234.72 -17245.28 17245.28 0.0231331 ags
734383.05 5975.88 738478.81 20478.8071 20478.81 0.028522 sep
741999.14 6303.92 740358.92 -8201.0755 8201.08 0.0109558 okt
742298.45 5103.00 748303.06 30023.0615 30023.06 0.0417985 nov
739665.16 3555.74 747401.45 38681.4485 38681.45 0.0545793 des
727931.92 497.95 743220.90 76444.9003 76444.90 0.1146485 jan
722759.69 -636.09 728429.87 28350.8656 28350.87 0.0404967 feb
735828.08 2104.81 722123.60 -68522.397 68522.40 0.0866663 mar
721215.51 -1238.67 737932.89 83586.8893 83586.89 0.1277411 apr
722937.07 -646.62 719976.84 -14801.157 14801.16 0.0201437 may
715363.56 -2032.00 722290.45 34634.4514 34634.45 0.050366 jun
697800.85 -5138.14 713331.56 77653.5605 77653.56 0.1221586 jul
685087.76 -6653.13 692662.71 37874.7053 37874.71 0.0578427 aug
680909.11 -6158.24 678434.63 -12372.367 12372.37 0.01791 sep
674750.87 18194.8697 18194.87 0.0277126 oct
total 862262.78 1.2367828
mad 37489.686287
mape 5.377%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


678976 0.00 678976 0 0 nov
681180.80 440.96 678976 -11024 11024 0.0159768 des
692301.41 2576.89 681621.76 -53398.24 53398.24 0.0726487 jan
704574.64 4516.16 694878.30 -48481.702 48481.70 0.0652197 feb
704984.64 3694.93 709090.80 20530.7958 20530.80 0.029817 mar
708019.65 3562.94 708679.56 3299.56249 3299.56 0.0046777 apr
716066.07 4459.64 711582.59 -22417.407 22417.41 0.0305414 mei
714532.57 3261.01 720525.71 29965.7143 29965.71 0.0433934 jun
714414.87 2585.27 717793.58 16893.5825 16893.58 0.0241027 jul
722696.11 3724.46 717000.13 -28479.866 28479.87 0.0382034 ags
724736.46 3387.64 726420.57 8420.56942 8420.57 0.0117278 sep
732211.28 4205.08 728124.10 -20435.905 20435.90 0.0273003 okt
732789.08 3479.62 736416.35 18136.352 18136.35 0.0252497 nov
730758.96 2377.67 736268.70 27548.7033 27548.70 0.0388711 des
719864.51 -276.75 733136.64 66360.6363 66360.64 0.0995246 jan
715686.01 -1057.10 719587.76 19508.7572 19508.76 0.0278665 feb
729832.32 1983.58 714628.90 -76017.096 76017.10 0.0961456 mar
716321.92 -1115.21 731815.90 77469.9046 77469.90 0.1183929 apr
719120.97 -332.36 715206.71 -19571.291 19571.29 0.0266357 may
712562.08 -1577.67 718788.60 31132.6046 31132.60 0.0452735 jun
695923.13 -4589.92 710984.42 75306.4167 75306.42 0.1184663 jul
684024.17 -6051.73 691333.21 36545.2096 36545.21 0.0558123 aug
680539.35 -5538.35 677972.44 -12834.564 12834.56 0.0185791 sep
671312.00 -6276.15 675001.00 18444.999 18445.00 0.0280936 oct
665035.85 -11619.15 11619.15 0.0171715 nov
total 742223.88 1.0625196
mad 32270.60345
mape 4.620%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


690000 0.00 690000 0 0 des
699004.00 1800.80 690000 -45020 45020 0.06125 jan
709315.84 3503.01 700804.80 -42555.2 42555.2 0.0572471 feb
707967.08 2532.65 712818.85 24258.848 24258.85 0.0352313 mar
709475.79 2327.86 710499.73 5119.73248 5119.73 0.0072581 apr
716242.92 3215.72 711803.65 -22196.349 22196.35 0.0302403 mei
713678.91 2059.77 719458.64 28898.6394 28898.64 0.0418481 jun
712770.95 1466.23 715738.68 14838.6847 14838.68 0.0211709 jul
720485.74 2715.94 714237.17 -31242.826 31242.83 0.0419097 ags
722161.34 2507.87 723201.68 5201.67767 5201.68 0.0072447 sep
729447.37 3463.50 724669.21 -23890.786 23890.79 0.0319157 okt
729984.70 2878.27 732910.87 14630.8743 14630.87 0.0203693 nov
728034.37 1912.55 732862.97 24142.9676 24142.97 0.0340656 des
717312.74 -614.29 729946.92 63170.9236 63170.92 0.0947408 jan
713374.56 -1279.07 716698.45 16619.4515 16619.45 0.0237394 feb
727805.60 1862.95 712095.50 -78550.504 78550.50 0.0993498 mar
714604.04 -1149.95 729668.55 75322.5512 75322.55 0.1151112 apr
717718.87 -296.99 713454.09 -21323.906 21323.91 0.0290209 may
711468.71 -1487.63 717421.88 29765.8838 29765.88 0.043286 jun
695120.46 -4459.75 709981.08 74303.0806 74303.08 0.1168879 jul
683486.17 -5894.66 690660.71 35872.7148 35872.71 0.0547852 aug
680234.61 -5366.04 677591.51 -13215.486 13215.49 0.0191305 sep
671206.06 -6098.54 674868.57 18312.572 18312.57 0.0278919 oct
667417.01 -5636.64 665107.52 -11547.484 11547.48 0.0170655 nov
661780.37 -77119.63 77119.63 0.1043709 dec
total 720001.14 1.0307599
mad 31304.397592
mape 4.482%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


735020 0.00 735020 0 0 jan
736688.00 333.60 735020 -8340 8340 0.0112193 feb
727329.28 -1604.86 737021.60 48461.6 48461.6 0.0703811 mar
721655.53 -2418.64 725724.42 20344.416 20344.42 0.0288418 apr
722189.51 -1828.12 719236.89 -14763.108 14763.11 0.0201132 mei
714401.12 -3020.17 720361.40 29801.3974 29801.40 0.0431554 jun
709284.76 -3439.41 711380.95 10480.9457 10480.95 0.0149536 jul
713772.28 -1854.02 705845.35 -39634.653 39634.65 0.0531666 ags
713134.60 -1610.75 711918.25 -6081.7467 6081.75 0.0084704 sep
718931.08 -129.31 711523.85 -37036.151 37036.15 0.0494765 okt
718697.42 -150.18 718801.77 521.770889 521.77 0.0007264 nov
716581.79 -543.27 718547.24 9827.23789 9827.24 0.0138662 des
706186.02 -2513.77 716038.52 49262.522 49262.52 0.0738817 jan
702953.60 -2657.50 703672.25 3593.24836 3593.25 0.0051326 feb
718366.08 956.50 700296.10 -90349.9 90349.90 0.1142735 mar
706327.26 -1642.57 719322.58 64976.5765 64976.58 0.0993 apr
710703.36 -438.83 704684.70 -30093.305 30093.30 0.0409556 may
705742.82 -1343.17 710264.52 22608.522 22608.52 0.0328777 jun
690655.31 -4092.04 704399.64 68721.6427 68721.64 0.1081076 jul
680208.22 -5363.05 686563.27 31775.2736 31775.27 0.0485276 aug
678037.53 -4724.58 674845.17 -15961.833 15961.83 0.0231061 sep
669961.56 -5394.86 673312.96 16756.9557 16756.96 0.0255225 oct
666984.37 -4911.32 664566.71 -12088.292 12088.29 0.0178648 nov
677438.43 -1838.25 662073.04 -76826.958 76826.96 0.1039748 dec
675600.19 jan
total 708308.06 1.007895
mad 30796.002456
mape 4.382%
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480 0
2016 690,876.00 690876 701798.80 -1404.36 706480 -15604
2016 709,888.00 709888 703242.51 -549.94 700394.44 9493.56
2016 687,000.00 687000 697984.80 -1962.27 702692.57 -15692.568
2016 698,700.00 698700 696825.77 -1721.30 696022.53 2677.47288
2016 720,000.00 720000 702573.13 519.30 695104.47 24895.5292
2016 768,900.00 768900 722834.70 6441.98 703092.43 65807.571
2016 780,900.00 780900 744763.68 11088.08 729276.68 51623.3189
2016 600,100.00 600100 709126.23 -2929.58 755851.76 -155751.76
2016 640,500.00 640500 686487.66 -8842.28 706196.65 -65696.651
2016 678,976.00 678976 678044.56 -8722.52 677645.38 1330.62152
2016 690,000.00 690000 675525.43 -6861.51 669322.04 20677.9562
2017 735,020.00 735020 688570.75 -889.46 668663.93 66356.0745
2017 743,360.00 743360 704384.90 4121.63 687681.29 55678.7106
2017 688,560.00 688560 702522.57 2326.44 708506.53 -19946.528
2017 705,380.00 705380 705008.31 2374.23 704849.01 530.992305
2017 734,000.00 734000 715367.77 4769.80 707382.53 26617.4673
2017 690,560.00 690560 711264.30 2107.82 720137.57 -29577.572
2017 700,900.00 700900 709630.48 985.33 713372.12 -12472.118
2017 745,480.00 745480 721075.07 4123.10 710615.81 34864.1899
2017 718,000.00 718000 723038.72 3475.27 725198.17 -7198.1714
2017 748,560.00 748560 733127.79 5459.41 726513.99 22046.0112
2017 718,280.00 718280 732495.04 3631.76 738587.20 -20307.202
2017 708,720.00 708720 727904.76 1165.15 736126.80 -27406.803
2018 666,776.00 666776 713372.12 -46596.118
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 690,876.00 690876 690876 0.00 690876 0
2016 709,888.00 709888 696579.60 1711.08 690876 19012
2016 687,000.00 687000 694903.48 694.92 698290.68 -11290.68
2016 698,700.00 698700 696528.88 974.06 695598.39 3101.6052
2016 720,000.00 720000 704252.06 2998.80 697502.94 22497.0604
2016 768,900.00 768900 725745.60 8547.22 707250.86 61649.1436
2016 780,900.00 780900 748274.97 12741.87 734292.82 46607.1789
2016 600,100.00 600100 712741.79 -1740.65 761016.84 -160916.84
2016 640,500.00 640500 689850.80 -8085.75 711001.14 -70501.142
2016 678,976.00 678976 680928.33 -8336.77 681765.05 -2789.0483
2016 690,000.00 690000 677814.10 -6770.01 672591.57 17408.4314
2017 735,020.00 735020 690236.86 -1012.17 671044.09 63975.9084
2017 743,360.00 743360 705465.28 3860.00 689224.69 54135.3105
2017 688,560.00 688560 703095.70 1991.13 709325.29 -20765.286
2017 705,380.00 705380 705174.78 2017.51 705086.83 293.17223
2017 734,000.00 734000 715234.60 4430.21 707192.29 26807.7075
2017 690,560.00 690560 710933.37 1810.77 719664.81 -29104.812
2017 700,900.00 700900 709190.90 744.80 712744.14 -11844.142
2017 745,480.00 745480 720598.99 3943.79 709935.70 35544.2998
2017 718,000.00 718000 722579.94 3354.94 724542.78 -6542.7781
2017 748,560.00 748560 732722.42 5391.20 725934.88 22625.1174
2017 718,280.00 718280 732163.53 3606.17 738113.62 -19833.616
2017 708,720.00 708720 727654.79 1171.70 735769.70 -27049.704
2018 666,776.00 666776 710211.34 -4412.84 728826.49 -62050.493
2018 700,079.00 700079 705798.50 -5719.5002
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 709,888.00 709888 709888 0.00 709888 0
2016 687,000.00 687000 703021.60 -2059.92 709888 -22888
2016 698,700.00 698700 700283.18 -2263.47 700961.68 -2261.68
2016 720,000.00 720000 704613.79 -285.24 698019.70 21980.2952
2016 768,900.00 768900 723699.98 5526.19 704328.55 64571.4513
2016 780,900.00 780900 744728.32 10176.83 729226.17 51673.8299
2016 600,100.00 600100 708463.60 -3755.63 754905.15 -154805.15
2016 640,500.00 640500 685445.58 -9534.35 704707.97 -64207.972
2016 678,976.00 678976 676830.66 -9258.52 675911.23 3064.76987
2016 690,000.00 690000 674300.50 -7240.01 667572.14 22427.8599
2017 735,020.00 735020 687448.34 -1123.66 667060.48 67959.5155
2017 743,360.00 743360 703435.28 4009.52 686324.68 57035.3181
2017 688,560.00 688560 701779.36 2309.89 707444.80 -18884.799
2017 705,380.00 705380 704476.47 2426.06 704089.25 1290.75133
2017 734,000.00 734000 715031.77 4864.83 706902.53 27097.4688
2017 690,560.00 690560 711095.62 2224.54 719896.60 -29336.601
2017 700,900.00 700900 709594.11 1106.72 713320.16 -12420.156
2017 745,480.00 745480 721134.58 4236.85 710700.83 34779.1696
2017 718,000.00 718000 723160.00 3573.42 725371.43 -7371.4278
2017 748,560.00 748560 733281.39 5537.81 726733.42 21826.5826
2017 718,280.00 718280 732657.44 3689.28 738819.20 -20539.203
2017 708,720.00 708720 728058.71 1202.88 736346.72 -27626.724
2018 666,776.00 666776 710515.91 -4420.83 729261.58 -62485.584
2018 700,079.00 700079 704290.26 -4962.27 706095.08 -6016.0831
2018 790,646.00 790646 699327.99 91318.0148
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 687,000.00 687000 687000 0.00 687000 0
2016 698,700.00 698700 690510.00 1053.00 687000 11700
2016 720,000.00 720000 700094.10 3612.33 691563.00 28437
2016 768,900.00 768900 723264.50 9479.75 703706.43 65193.57
2016 780,900.00 780900 747190.98 13813.77 732744.25 48155.7477
2016 600,100.00 600100 712733.32 -667.66 761004.75 -160904.75
2016 640,500.00 640500 690595.96 -7108.57 712065.66 -71565.663
2016 678,976.00 678976 682133.98 -7514.59 683487.40 -4511.3961
2016 690,000.00 690000 679233.57 -6130.34 674619.38 15380.6166
2017 735,020.00 735020 691678.26 -557.83 673103.23 61916.7699
2017 743,360.00 743360 706792.30 4143.73 691120.43 52239.568
2017 688,560.00 688560 704223.22 2129.89 710936.03 -22376.035
2017 705,380.00 705380 706061.18 2042.31 706353.11 -973.11315
2017 734,000.00 734000 715872.44 4372.99 708103.49 25896.512
2017 690,560.00 690560 711339.81 1701.31 720245.44 -29685.436
2017 700,900.00 700900 709398.78 608.61 713041.11 -12141.111
2017 745,480.00 745480 720649.17 3801.14 710007.38 35472.6166
2017 718,000.00 718000 722515.22 3220.61 724450.31 -6450.3095
2017 748,560.00 748560 732583.08 5274.79 725735.83 22824.1701
2017 718,280.00 718280 731984.51 3512.78 737857.87 -19577.869
2017 708,720.00 708720 727464.10 1102.82 735497.29 -26777.289
2018 666,776.00 666776 710029.65 -4458.36 728566.93 -61790.927
2018 700,079.00 700079 703923.60 -4952.67 705571.29 -5492.2895
2018 790,646.00 790646 726473.46 3298.09 698970.94 91675.0625
2018 654,346.00 654346 729771.55 -75425.547
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 698,700.00 698700 698700 0.00 698700 0
2016 720,000.00 720000 705090.00 1917.00 698700 21300
2016 768,900.00 768900 725574.90 7487.37 707007.00 61893
2016 780,900.00 780900 747413.59 11792.77 733062.27 47837.73
2016 600,100.00 600100 711474.45 -2526.81 759206.35 -159106.35
2016 640,500.00 640500 688413.35 -8687.09 708947.64 -68447.642
2016 678,976.00 678976 679501.18 -8754.62 679726.26 -750.25544
2016 690,000.00 690000 676522.59 -7021.81 670746.56 19253.4382
2017 735,020.00 735020 689156.55 -1125.08 669500.79 65519.2143
2017 743,360.00 743360 704630.03 3854.49 688031.47 55328.5283
2017 688,560.00 688560 702507.16 2061.28 708484.52 -19924.519
2017 705,380.00 705380 704811.91 2134.32 704568.45 811.55385
2017 734,000.00 734000 715062.36 4569.16 706946.23 27053.7653
2017 690,560.00 690560 710910.07 1952.72 719631.53 -29071.526
2017 700,900.00 700900 709273.95 876.07 712862.79 -11962.792
2017 745,480.00 745480 720749.02 4055.77 710150.03 35329.973
2017 718,000.00 718000 722763.35 3443.34 724804.79 -6804.7891
2017 748,560.00 748560 732912.68 5455.14 726206.69 22353.3084
2017 718,280.00 718280 732341.47 3647.23 738367.82 -20087.821
2017 708,720.00 708720 727808.10 1193.05 735988.71 -27268.708
2018 666,776.00 666776 710333.60 -4407.21 729001.14 -62225.145
2018 700,079.00 700079 704172.17 -4933.48 705926.39 -5847.3878
2018 790,646.00 790646 726660.89 3293.18 699238.69 91407.3071
2018 654,346.00 654346 707271.64 -3511.55 729954.06 -75608.064
2018 734,778.00 734778 703760.10 31017.9018
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 720,000.00 720000 720000 0.00 720000 0
2016 768,900.00 768900 734670.00 4401.00 720000 48900
2016 780,900.00 780900 751619.70 8165.61 739071.00 41829
2016 600,100.00 600100 711879.72 -6206.07 759785.31 -159685.31
2016 640,500.00 640500 686121.55 -12071.70 705673.65 -65173.649
2016 678,976.00 678976 675527.70 -11628.34 674049.86 4926.14195
2016 690,000.00 690000 671729.55 -9279.29 663899.36 26100.6429
2017 735,020.00 735020 684221.18 -2748.01 662450.26 72569.7357
2017 743,360.00 743360 700039.22 2821.80 681473.18 61886.8245
2017 688,560.00 688560 698570.72 1534.71 702861.03 -14301.028
2017 705,380.00 705380 701687.80 2009.42 700105.43 5274.56843
2017 734,000.00 734000 712788.06 4736.67 703697.23 30302.7745
2017 690,560.00 690560 709435.31 2309.85 717524.73 -26964.731
2017 700,900.00 700900 708491.61 1333.78 711745.16 -10845.159
2017 745,480.00 745480 720521.78 4542.70 709825.39 35654.6057
2017 718,000.00 718000 722945.13 3906.89 725064.47 -7064.4735
2017 748,560.00 748560 733364.42 5860.61 726852.03 21707.9736
2017 718,280.00 718280 732941.52 3975.56 739225.03 -20945.031
2017 708,720.00 708720 728457.96 1437.82 736917.08 -28197.081
2018 666,776.00 666776 710959.85 -4242.96 729895.78 -63119.779
2018 700,079.00 700079 704725.52 -4840.37 706716.89 -6637.8879
2018 790,646.00 790646 727113.41 3328.11 699885.15 90760.8461
2018 654,346.00 654346 707612.86 -3520.49 730441.52 -76095.516
2018 734,778.00 734778 713298.06 -758.78 704092.37 30685.6266
2018 687,656.00 687656 712539.28 -24883.28
total
mad
mape
TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
2016 768,900.00 768900 768900 0.00 768900 0
2016 780,900.00 780900 772500.00 1080.00 768900 -12000
2016 600,100.00 600100 721536.00 -14533.20 773580.00 173480
2016 640,500.00 640500 687051.96 -20518.45 707002.80 66502.8
2016 678,976.00 678976 670266.26 -19398.63 666533.51 -12442.492
2016 690,000.00 690000 662607.34 -15876.71 650867.63 -39132.372
2017 735,020.00 735020 673217.44 -7930.67 646730.63 -88289.375
2017 743,360.00 743360 688708.74 -904.08 665286.77 -78073.233
2017 688,560.00 688560 688031.26 -836.10 687804.66 -755.34252
2017 705,380.00 705380 692650.61 800.54 687195.16 -18184.838
2017 734,000.00 734000 705615.80 4449.93 693451.15 -40548.85
2017 690,560.00 690560 704214.02 2694.42 710065.74 19505.7381
2017 700,900.00 700900 705105.90 2153.66 706908.43 6008.43351
2017 745,480.00 745480 718725.69 5593.50 707259.56 -38220.439
2017 718,000.00 718000 722423.43 5024.77 724319.19 6319.19018
2017 748,560.00 748560 733781.74 6924.83 727448.20 -21111.797
2017 718,280.00 718280 733978.60 4906.44 740706.57 22426.5742
2017 708,720.00 708720 729835.53 2191.59 738885.04 30165.0421
2018 666,776.00 666776 712451.78 -3681.01 732027.12 65251.1159
2018 700,079.00 700079 706163.24 -4463.27 708770.77 8691.76712
2018 790,646.00 790646 728383.77 3541.87 701699.96 -88946.036
2018 654,346.00 654346 708651.75 -3440.30 731925.64 77579.6449
2018 734,778.00 734778 714081.42 -779.31 705211.45 -29566.546
2018 687,656.00 687656 705608.28 -3087.46 713302.11 25646.1088
2018 635,678.00 635678 702520.82 66842.8177
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 780,900.00 780900 780900 0.00 780900 0
2016 600,100.00 600100 726660.00 -16272.00 780900 180800
2016 640,500.00 640500 689421.60 -22561.92 710388.00 69888
2016 678,976.00 678976 670494.58 -21471.45 666859.68 -12116.32
2016 690,000.00 690000 661316.19 -17783.53 649023.12 -40976.875
2017 735,020.00 735020 670978.86 -9549.67 643532.65 -91487.345
2017 743,360.00 743360 686008.43 -2175.90 661429.19 -81930.813
2017 688,560.00 688560 685250.77 -1750.43 683832.53 -4727.4673
2017 705,380.00 705380 690064.24 218.74 683500.35 -21879.653
2017 734,000.00 734000 703398.09 4153.27 690282.99 -43717.015
2017 690,560.00 690560 702453.95 2624.05 707551.36 16991.3637
2017 700,900.00 700900 703824.60 2248.03 705078.01 4178.00581
2017 745,480.00 745480 717894.84 5794.69 706072.63 -39407.365
2017 718,000.00 718000 721982.68 5282.64 723689.54 5689.5379
2017 748,560.00 748560 733653.72 7199.16 727265.31 -21294.688
2017 718,280.00 718280 734081.01 5167.60 740852.88 22572.8753
2017 708,720.00 708720 730090.03 2420.02 739248.61 30528.611
2018 666,776.00 666776 712789.84 -3496.04 732510.05 65734.0511
2018 700,079.00 700079 706529.36 -4325.37 709293.79 9214.79448
2018 790,646.00 790646 728736.59 3634.41 702203.98 -88442.017
2018 654,346.00 654346 708963.50 -3387.84 732371.00 78024.9971
2018 734,778.00 734778 714336.36 -759.63 705575.66 -29202.343
2018 687,656.00 687656 705800.51 -3092.50 713576.73 25920.7297
2018 635,678.00 635678 682599.01 -9125.20 702708.02 67030.015
2018 654,788.00 654788 673473.81 18685.8133
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 600,100.00 600100 600100 0.00 600100 0
2016 640,500.00 640500 612220.00 3636.00 600100 -40400
2016 678,976.00 678976 634792.00 9316.80 615856.00 -63120
2016 690,000.00 690000 657876.16 13447.01 644108.80 -45891.2
2017 735,020.00 735020 690432.22 19179.72 671323.17 -63696.832
2017 743,360.00 743360 719736.36 22217.05 709611.94 -33748.06
2017 688,560.00 688560 725935.38 17411.64 741953.41 53393.4066
2017 705,380.00 705380 731956.92 13994.61 743347.03 37967.0262
2017 734,000.00 734000 742366.07 12918.97 745951.53 11951.5277
2017 690,560.00 690560 735867.53 7093.72 755285.04 64725.0412
2017 700,900.00 700900 730342.87 3308.21 742961.25 42061.2469
2017 745,480.00 745480 737199.76 4372.81 733651.08 -11828.921
2017 718,000.00 718000 734500.79 2251.28 741572.56 23572.5639
2017 748,560.00 748560 740294.45 3313.99 736752.07 -11807.927
2017 718,280.00 718280 736009.91 1034.43 743608.44 25328.4424
2017 708,720.00 708720 728547.04 -1514.76 737044.34 28324.3414
2018 666,776.00 666776 708955.40 -6937.82 727032.28 60256.2799
2018 700,079.00 700079 701436.00 -7112.30 702017.57 1938.57169
2018 790,646.00 790646 723220.39 1556.71 694323.70 -96322.296
2018 654,346.00 654346 703647.77 -4782.09 724777.10 70431.104
2018 734,778.00 734778 709639.38 -1549.98 698865.68 -35912.316
2018 687,656.00 687656 701959.38 -3388.99 708089.40 20433.399
2018 635,678.00 635678 679702.68 -9049.30 698570.39 62892.3933
2018 654,788.00 654788 665893.76 -10477.19 670653.37 15865.374
2018 690,807.00 690807 655416.58 -35390.423
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 640,500.00 640500 640500 0.00 640500 0
2016 678,976.00 678976 652042.80 3462.84 640500 -38476
2016 690,000.00 690000 665853.95 6567.33 655505.64 -34494.36
2017 735,020.00 735020 691200.90 12201.22 672421.28 -62598.72
2017 743,360.00 743360 715389.48 15797.43 703402.11 -39957.887
2017 688,560.00 688560 718398.83 11961.01 731186.91 42626.9064
2017 705,380.00 705380 722865.89 9712.82 730359.84 24979.8398
2017 734,000.00 734000 733005.10 9840.74 732578.71 -1421.2923
2017 690,560.00 690560 727160.08 5135.01 742845.83 52285.8315
2017 700,900.00 700900 722876.57 2309.45 732295.09 31395.0933
2017 745,480.00 745480 731274.21 4135.91 725186.02 -20293.982
2017 718,000.00 718000 730187.09 2569.00 735410.12 17410.124
2017 748,560.00 748560 737497.26 3991.35 732756.09 -15803.913
2017 718,280.00 718280 734526.03 1902.58 741488.61 23208.6131
2017 708,720.00 708720 728116.02 -591.20 736428.61 27708.6062
2018 666,776.00 666776 709300.18 -6058.59 727524.83 60748.8269
2018 700,079.00 700079 702292.81 -6343.22 703241.59 3162.58693
2018 790,646.00 790646 724358.51 2179.45 695949.59 -94696.414
2018 654,346.00 654346 704880.37 -4317.82 726537.96 72191.9628
2018 734,778.00 734778 710827.18 -1238.43 700562.55 -34215.45
2018 687,656.00 687656 703008.93 -3212.38 709588.75 21932.7513
2018 635,678.00 635678 680560.98 -8983.05 699796.54 64118.5447
2018 654,788.00 654788 666540.95 -10494.14 671577.93 16789.931
2018 690,807.00 690807 666474.87 -7365.73 656046.81 -34760.192
2018 656,556.00 656556 659109.14 2553.13865
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 678,976.00 678976 678976 0.00 678976 0
2016 690,000.00 690000 682283.20 992.16 678976 -11024
2017 735,020.00 735020 698798.75 5649.18 683275.36 -51744.64
2017 743,360.00 743360 716121.55 9151.26 704447.93 -38912.07
2017 688,560.00 688560 714258.97 5847.11 725272.81 36712.8147
2017 705,380.00 705380 715688.26 4521.76 720106.08 14726.0809
2017 734,000.00 734000 724347.01 5762.86 720210.02 -13789.98
2017 690,560.00 690560 718244.91 2203.37 730109.88 39549.8755
2017 700,900.00 700900 714583.80 444.03 720448.29 19548.2856
2017 745,480.00 745480 724163.48 3184.72 715027.83 -30452.173
2017 718,000.00 718000 724543.74 2343.38 727348.20 9348.20149
2017 748,560.00 748560 733388.99 4293.94 726887.13 -21672.874
2017 718,280.00 718280 731862.05 2547.68 737682.93 19402.9311
2017 708,720.00 708720 726702.81 235.60 734409.73 25689.7311
2018 666,776.00 666776 708889.69 -5179.01 726938.42 60162.4154
2018 700,079.00 700079 702621.17 -5505.86 703710.68 3631.67697
2018 790,646.00 790646 725174.52 2911.90 697115.31 -93530.691
2018 654,346.00 654346 705964.29 -3724.74 728086.41 73740.4139
2018 734,778.00 734778 712001.08 -796.28 702239.55 -32538.45
2018 687,656.00 687656 704140.16 -2915.67 711204.81 23548.8057
2018 635,678.00 635678 681560.54 -8814.86 701224.49 65546.4922
2018 654,788.00 654788 667358.38 -10431.05 672745.69 17957.6884
2018 690,807.00 690807 667091.23 -7381.88 656927.33 -33879.666
2018 656,556.00 656556 658763.35 -7665.68 659709.36 3153.3556
2018 676,655.00 676655 651097.67 -25557.331
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 690,000.00 690000 690000 0.00 690000 0
2017 735,020.00 735020 703506.00 4051.80 690000 -45020
2017 743,360.00 743360 718298.46 7274.00 707557.80 -35802.2
2017 688,560.00 688560 714468.72 3942.88 725572.46 37012.458
2017 705,380.00 705380 714502.12 2770.03 718411.60 13031.5974
2017 734,000.00 734000 722290.51 4275.54 717272.15 -16727.849
2017 690,560.00 690560 715764.23 1035.00 726566.05 36006.0452
2017 700,900.00 700900 712029.46 -395.94 716799.23 15899.227
2017 745,480.00 745480 721787.47 2650.25 711633.52 -33846.476
2017 718,000.00 718000 722506.40 2070.85 724437.71 6437.71443
2017 748,560.00 748560 731772.08 4229.30 724577.25 -23982.746
2017 718,280.00 718280 730684.96 2634.38 736001.38 17721.3781
2017 708,720.00 708720 725939.54 420.44 733319.34 24599.3413
2018 666,776.00 666776 708484.78 -4942.12 726359.97 59583.9748
2018 700,079.00 700079 702503.56 -5253.85 703542.66 3463.66053
2018 790,646.00 790646 725268.60 3151.81 697249.71 -93396.289
2018 654,346.00 654346 706198.09 -3514.88 728420.41 74074.4125
2018 734,778.00 734778 712311.64 -626.35 702683.21 -32094.794
2018 687,656.00 687656 704476.51 -2788.99 711685.29 24029.2935
2018 635,678.00 635678 681884.66 -8729.84 701687.52 66009.518
2018 654,788.00 654788 667644.77 -10382.86 673154.82 18366.8186
2018 690,807.00 690807 667325.44 -7363.80 657261.92 -33545.085
2018 656,556.00 656556 658939.95 -7670.31 659961.64 3405.64067
2018 676,655.00 676655 658885.25 -5385.63 651269.64 -25385.359
2018 738,900.00 738900 653499.62 -85400.377
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 735,020.00 735020 735020 0.00 735020 0
2017 743,360.00 743360 737522.00 750.60 735020 -8340
2017 688,560.00 688560 723358.82 -3723.53 738272.60 49712.6
2017 705,380.00 705380 715358.70 -5006.51 719635.29 14255.286
2017 734,000.00 734000 717446.53 -2878.21 710352.19 -23647.81
2017 690,560.00 690560 707365.83 -5038.96 714568.33 24008.3264
2017 700,900.00 700900 701898.81 -5167.37 702326.87 1426.87225
2017 745,480.00 745480 711356.01 -780.00 696731.44 -48748.564
2017 718,000.00 718000 712803.20 -111.84 710576.00 -7423.9989
2017 748,560.00 748560 723451.95 3116.33 712691.36 -35868.643
2017 718,280.00 718280 724081.80 2370.39 726568.28 8288.28349
2017 708,720.00 708720 721132.53 774.49 726452.19 17732.1867
2018 666,776.00 666776 705367.72 -4187.30 721907.02 55131.0222
2018 700,079.00 700079 700849.99 -4286.43 701180.42 1101.41505
2018 790,646.00 790646 724788.29 4180.99 696563.56 -94082.437
2018 654,346.00 654346 706582.30 -2535.10 728969.29 74623.2854
2018 734,778.00 734778 713266.44 230.67 704047.20 -30730.804
2018 687,656.00 687656 705744.77 -2095.03 713497.11 25841.1051
2018 635,678.00 635678 683258.22 -8212.49 703649.74 67971.7423
2018 654,788.00 654788 668968.41 -10035.68 675045.73 20257.7316
2018 690,807.00 690807 668495.01 -7167.00 658932.73 -31874.272
2018 656,556.00 656556 659896.41 -7596.48 661328.01 4772.01031
2018 676,655.00 676655 659606.45 -5404.52 652299.93 -24355.073
2018 738,900.00 738900 679611.35 2218.30 654201.93 -84698.075
2019 681829.65
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.4
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480
15604 0.0225858 feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 700238.40
9493.56 0.0133733 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 702600.26
15692.57 0.0228422 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 696028.21
2677.47 0.0038321 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 695320.47
24895.53 0.0345771 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 703956.55
65807.57 0.0855866 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 731265.15
51623.32 0.0661075 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 758471.88
155751.76 0.259543 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 706064.42
65696.65 0.1025709 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 673825.64
1330.62 0.0019597 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 664540.67
20677.96 0.0299681 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 665688.94
66356.07 0.0902779 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 688275.67
55678.71 0.0749014 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 712642.80
19946.53 0.0289685 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 710257.83
530.99 0.0007528 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 712083.20
26617.47 0.0362636 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723553.91
29577.57 0.0428313 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 714731.70
12472.12 0.0177944 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 709706.91
34864.19 0.0467674 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723114.93
7198.17 0.0100253 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 723746.15
22046.01 0.0294512 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 735429.50
20307.20 0.028272 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732428.39
27406.80 0.0386708 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 724539.98
46596.12 0.0698827 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
752252.85 1.087923 total
32706.645497 mad
4.730% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 690876
19012 0.0267817 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 698480.80
11290.68 0.0164348 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 695713.63
3101.61 0.0044391 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 697339.15
22497.06 0.0312459 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 707052.20
61649.14 0.0801784 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 734511.67
46607.18 0.0596839 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 761289.49
160916.84 0.26815 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 708173.86
70501.14 0.110072 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 675172.67
2789.05 0.0041077 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 665214.73
17408.43 0.0252296 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 665851.36
63975.91 0.0870397 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 688105.13
54135.31 0.0728252 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 712299.77
20765.29 0.0301576 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 709866.19
293.17 0.0004156 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 711725.05
26807.71 0.0365228 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723273.16
29104.81 0.0421467 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 714542.32
11844.14 0.0168985 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 709602.64
35544.30 0.0476797 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723078.42
6542.78 0.0091125 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 723756.13
22625.12 0.0302249 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 735465.78
19833.62 0.0276127 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732474.65
27049.70 0.038167 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 724584.82
62050.49 0.0930605 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 700534.95
5719.50 0.0081698 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
796345.48 1.1581864 total
34623.716451 mad
5.036% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 709888
22888 0.0333159 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 700732.80
2261.68 0.003237 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 697722.43
21980.30 0.0305282 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 704592.62
64571.45 0.083979 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 730739.92
51673.83 0.0661721 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 757333.91
154805.15 0.2579656 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 704740.88
64207.97 0.1002466 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 672602.52
3064.77 0.0045138 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 663573.50
22427.86 0.0325041 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 665030.09
67959.52 0.0924594 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 687907.23
57035.32 0.0767264 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 712507.56
18884.80 0.0274265 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 710284.14
1290.75 0.0018299 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 712202.23
27097.47 0.0369175 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723709.53
29336.60 0.0424823 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 714884.38
12420.16 0.0177203 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 709833.39
34779.17 0.0466534 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723205.46
7371.43 0.0102666 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 723800.62
21826.58 0.0291581 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 735453.62
20539.20 0.028595 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732430.44
27626.72 0.0389812 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 724528.46
62485.58 0.093713 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 700480.32
6016.08 0.0085934 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693979.95
91318.01 0.115498 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
802550.39 1.1639854 total
34893.49526 mad
5.061% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 687000
11700 0.0167454 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 691680.00
28437 0.0394958 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 704131.20
65193.57 0.0847881 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 733700.93
48155.75 0.061667 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 761874.62
160904.75 0.2681299 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 709502.89
71565.66 0.1117341 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 676735.39
4511.40 0.0066444 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 666667.63
15380.62 0.0222907 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 667005.91
61916.77 0.0842382 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 688895.94
52239.57 0.0702749 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 712745.80
22376.03 0.0324969 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 710033.99
973.11 0.0013796 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 711699.07
25896.51 0.0352814 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723135.06
29685.44 0.0429875 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 714359.05
12141.11 0.0173222 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 709421.59
35472.62 0.0475836 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 722927.66
6450.31 0.0089837 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 723647.68
22824.17 0.0304908 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 735400.06
19577.87 0.0272566 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732445.08
26777.29 0.0377826 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 724581.68
61790.93 0.0926712 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 700548.17
5492.29 0.0078452 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 694045.72
91675.06 0.1159496 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727336.37
75425.55 0.1152686 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
881137.82 1.2640392 total
38310.339868 mad
5.496% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 698700
21300 0.0295833 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 707220.00
61893 0.0804955 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 733936.80
47837.73 0.0612597 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 760360.99
159106.35 0.2651331 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 707181.75
68447.64 0.106866 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 674301.12
750.26 0.001105 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 664554.97
19253.44 0.0279035 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 665424.24
65519.21 0.0891394 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 687885.92
55328.53 0.0744303 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 712240.39
19924.52 0.0289365 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 709912.20
811.55 0.0011505 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 711826.94
27053.77 0.036858 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723392.27
29071.53 0.0420985 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 714652.71
11962.79 0.0170678 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 709690.14
35329.97 0.0473922 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723138.17
6804.79 0.0094774 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 723789.68
22353.31 0.0298617 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 735478.24
20087.82 0.0279666 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732472.46
27268.71 0.038476 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 724574.20
62225.14 0.0933224 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 700520.97
5847.39 0.0083525 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 694011.03
91407.31 0.1156109 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727302.75
75608.06 0.1155475 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 702892.70
31017.90 0.042214 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
935192.82 1.3480344 total
40660.557495 mad
5.861% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 720000
48900 0.0635973 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 739560.00
41829 0.0535651 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 760790.40
159685.31 0.2660978 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 704426.18
65173.65 0.1017543 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 670075.45
4926.14 0.0072553 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 660123.35
26100.64 0.037827 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 661578.11
72569.74 0.0987316 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 685006.47
61886.82 0.0832528 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 710401.65
14301.03 0.0207695 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 708992.09
5274.57 0.0074776 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 711605.22
30302.77 0.0412844 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723625.07
26964.73 0.0390476 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 715120.96
10845.16 0.0154732 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 710224.75
35654.61 0.0478277 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723627.06
7064.47 0.0098391 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 724172.91
21707.97 0.0289996 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 735736.76
20945.03 0.02916 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732614.79
28197.08 0.0397859 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 724624.04
63119.78 0.0946641 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 700507.34
6637.89 0.0094816 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693961.51
90760.85 0.1147933 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727239.61
76095.52 0.1162925 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 702831.49
30685.63 0.0417618 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 712601.74
24883.28 0.0361857 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
949628.39 1.3687394 total
41288.190703 mad
5.951% mape
|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level
0 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 768900
12000 0.0153669 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 773700.00
173480 0.2890852 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 705412.00
66502.80 0.1038295 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 663749.28
12442.49 0.0183254 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 650422.16
39132.37 0.0567136 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 651404.11
88289.37 0.1201183 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 676176.62
78073.23 0.1050275 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 703791.06
755.34 0.001097 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 704770.76
18184.84 0.0257802 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 709492.86
40548.85 0.0552437 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723116.06
19505.74 0.0282463 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 715655.41
6008.43 0.0085725 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 711299.76
38220.44 0.0512696 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 724854.40
6319.19 0.0088011 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 725295.28
21111.80 0.0282032 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 736616.57
22426.57 0.0312226 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 733208.29
30165.04 0.0425627 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 724950.79
65251.12 0.0978606 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 700621.77
8691.77 0.0124154 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693930.23
88946.04 0.1124979 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727125.91
77579.64 0.1185606 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 702686.54
29566.55 0.0402387 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 712461.22
25646.11 0.037295 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 703047.92
66842.82 0.105152 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
968847.74 1.4083334 total
42123.814595 mad
6.123% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780900
180800 0.3012831 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 708580.00
69888 0.1091148 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 663991.20
12116.32 0.017845 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 648869.73
40976.88 0.0593868 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 649023.45
91487.35 0.1244692 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 673679.93
81930.81 0.1102169 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 701624.23
4727.47 0.0068657 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 703148.53
21879.65 0.0310183 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 708456.95
43717.01 0.05956 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 722597.69
16991.36 0.0246052 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 715530.50
4178.01 0.0059609 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 711430.91
39407.37 0.0528617 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 725118.21
5689.54 0.0079241 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 725596.47
21294.69 0.0284475 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 736892.00
22572.88 0.0314263 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 733424.19
30528.61 0.0430757 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 725096.44
65734.05 0.0985849 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 700701.96
9214.79 0.0131625 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693958.31
88442.02 0.1118604 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727118.24
78025.00 0.1192412 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 702658.63
29202.34 0.0397431 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 712425.65
25920.73 0.0376943 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 703013.44
67030.02 0.1054465 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 674117.72
18685.81 0.0285372 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
1051754.88 1.5397941 total
45728.473159 mad
6.695% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 600100
40400 0.0630757 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 616260.00
63120 0.0929635 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 645224.80
45891.20 0.066509 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 672413.47
63696.83 0.08666 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 709548.52
33748.06 0.0453993 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 739240.99
53393.41 0.0775436 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 735795.51
37967.03 0.0538249 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 732898.54
11951.53 0.0162827 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 738205.39
64725.04 0.0937283 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 723340.64
42061.25 0.0600103 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 713312.89
11828.92 0.0158675 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723142.17
23572.56 0.0328309 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 721621.80
11807.93 0.0157742 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 732354.08
25328.44 0.0352626 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 729274.40
28324.34 0.0399655 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 721843.49
60256.28 0.0903696 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 698507.58
1938.57 0.0027691 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 692750.19
96322.30 0.1218273 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 726695.16
70431.10 0.1076359 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 702774.28
35912.32 0.0488751 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 712846.02
20433.40 0.0297146 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 703549.39
62892.39 0.0989375 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 674637.26
15865.37 0.0242298 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 658700.51
35390.42 0.0512306 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
921868.27 1.320057 total
40081.229102 mad
5.739% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 640500
38476 0.0566677 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 655890.40
34494.36 0.0499918 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 673227.94
62598.72 0.085166 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 704321.99
39957.89 0.0537531 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 731226.10
42626.91 0.0619073 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 727389.99
24979.84 0.0354133 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 725603.53
1421.29 0.0019364 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 732743.89
52285.83 0.0757151 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 719853.08
31395.09 0.0447925 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 711567.70
20293.98 0.0272227 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 722721.64
17410.12 0.0242481 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 722063.35
15803.91 0.0211124 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 733242.23
23208.61 0.0323114 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 730288.41
27708.61 0.0390967 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 722770.77
60748.83 0.0911083 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 699234.46
3162.59 0.0045175 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693240.52
94696.41 0.1197709 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 726965.12
72191.96 0.1103269 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 702868.81
34215.45 0.0465657 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 712820.18
21932.75 0.0318949 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 703455.45
64118.54 0.1008664 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 674517.50
16789.93 0.0256418 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 658584.41
34760.19 0.0503182 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 662824.73
2553.14 0.0038887 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
835277.83 1.1903452 total
36316.427289 mad
5.175% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 678976
11024 0.0159768 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 683385.60
51744.64 0.070399 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 705097.66
38912.07 0.0523462 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 726248.48
36712.81 0.0533183 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 719756.81
14726.08 0.0208768 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 717598.32
13789.98 0.0187874 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 725796.29
39549.88 0.0572722 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 714651.67
19548.29 0.0278903 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 708246.23
30452.17 0.0408491 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 721059.57
9348.20 0.0130198 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 721662.84
21672.87 0.0289528 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 733662.75
19402.93 0.027013 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 731134.26
25689.73 0.0362481 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 723736.48
60162.42 0.0902288 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 700117.57
3631.68 0.0051875 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693932.78
93530.69 0.1182965 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727432.10
73740.41 0.1126933 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703125.91
32538.45 0.0442834 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 712910.22
23548.81 0.034245 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 703430.84
65546.49 0.1031127 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 674428.05
17957.69 0.0274252 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 658470.36
33879.67 0.0490436 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 662714.17
3153.36 0.0048029 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 656054.91
25557.33 0.0377701 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
740263.31 1.0522686 total
32185.361452 mad
4.575% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690000
45020 0.06125 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 708008.00
35802.2 0.0481627 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 726470.72
37012.46 0.0537534 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 718330.64
13031.60 0.0184746 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 715411.28
16727.85 0.02279 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723502.67
36006.05 0.0521404 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 712661.07
15899.23 0.022684 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 706755.94
33846.48 0.0454023 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 720107.91
6437.71 0.0089662 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 721186.63
23982.75 0.0320385 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 733548.00
17721.38 0.024672 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 731254.74
24599.34 0.0347095 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 723978.83
59583.97 0.0893613 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 700394.27
3463.66 0.0049475 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 694185.81
93396.29 0.1181266 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727630.44
74074.41 0.1132037 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703259.71
32094.79 0.0436796 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 712983.88
24029.29 0.0349438 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 703456.64
66009.52 0.1038411 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 674420.99
18366.82 0.02805 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 658444.73
33545.08 0.0485593 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 662681.49
3405.64 0.0051871 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 656023.23
25385.36 0.037516 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 660153.12
85400.38 0.1155777 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
739441.88 1.0524595 total
32149.646871 mad
4.576% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 735020
8340 0.0112193 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 738356.00
49712.6 0.0721979 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 719238.24
14255.29 0.0202094 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 709587.07
23647.81 0.0322177 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 714571.23
24008.33 0.0347665 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 703294.33
1426.87 0.0020358 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698626.70
48748.56 0.0653922 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 714021.85
7424.00 0.0103398 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 717300.24
35868.64 0.0479169 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 731603.24
8288.28 0.0115391 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 730786.12
17732.19 0.02502 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 724470.87
55131.02 0.082683 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 701383.98
1101.42 0.0015733 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 695315.77
94082.44 0.1189944 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 728663.76
74623.29 0.1140425 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 704069.71
30730.80 0.0418233 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 713530.29
25841.11 0.0375785 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 703757.47
67971.74 0.1069279 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 674526.34
20257.73 0.0309378 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 658415.93
31874.27 0.0461406 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 662576.82
4772.01 0.0072682 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 655889.78
24355.07 0.0359933 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 660023.75
84698.07 0.1146272 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 690063.13
jan 2019
754891.54 1.0714448 total
32821.371502 mad
4.658% mape
alpha 0.5
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 706480 0 0 jan 2016
-2496.64 706480 -15604 15604 0.0225858 feb 2016
-553.24 697741.76 12146.24 12146.24 0.0171101 mar 2016
-2960.76 702047.01 -15047.014 15047.01 0.0219025 apr 2016
-2059.56 693067.44 5632.55526 5632.56 0.0080615 mei 2016
2218.70 693260.91 26739.0882 26739.09 0.0371376 jun 2016
12254.66 706175.25 62724.7539 62724.75 0.0815773 jul 2016
18235.49 743519.81 37380.1927 37380.19 0.0478681 ags 2016
-10021.69 776707.37 -176607.37 176607.37 0.2942966 sep 2016
-18908.53 696042.74 -55542.735 55542.74 0.0867178 okt 2016
-15059.11 654917.11 24058.8859 24058.89 0.0354341 nov 2016
-8576.16 649481.56 40518.4369 40518.44 0.0587224 des 2016
3889.00 657112.78 77907.2177 77907.22 0.1059933 jan 2017
12080.25 692164.67 51195.3313 51195.33 0.0688702 feb 2017
6294.16 724723.05 -36163.054 36163.05 0.0525198 mar 2017
4506.64 716552.00 -11171.996 11172.00 0.0158383 apr 2017
7292.27 716589.84 17410.158 17410.16 0.0237196 mei 2017
846.48 730846.17 -40286.175 40286.17 0.0583384 jun 2017
-1502.03 715578.19 -14678.187 14678.19 0.0209419 jul 2017
4461.99 708204.88 37275.1162 37275.12 0.0500015 ags 2017
2929.68 727576.92 -9576.9208 9576.92 0.0133383 sep 2017
6431.15 726675.84 21884.1644 21884.16 0.029235 okt 2017
2658.25 741860.65 -23580.651 23580.65 0.0328293 nov 2017
-1560.42 735086.64 -26366.636 26366.64 0.0372032 des 2017
715578.19 -48802.187 48802.19 0.0731913 jan 2018
al 839496.88 1.2202425
ad 36499.864499
pe 5.305%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0.00 690876 0 0 feb 2016
3041.92 690876 19012 19012 0.0267817 mar 2016
718.28 701522.72 -14522.72 14522.72 0.0211393 apr 2016
1081.18 696431.92 2268.0832 2268.08 0.0032461 mei 2016
4533.93 698420.33 21579.6718 21579.67 0.0299718 jun 2016
13704.15 711586.12 57313.8775 57313.88 0.0745401 jul 2016
18933.61 748215.82 32684.1805 32684.18 0.0418545 ags 2016
-9886.08 780223.11 -180123.11 180123.11 0.3001552 sep 2016
-19132.13 698287.78 -57787.782 57787.78 0.0902229 okt 2016
-15462.45 656040.54 22935.4582 22935.46 0.0337795 nov 2016
-9022.82 649752.27 40247.7289 40247.73 0.05833 des 2016
3487.82 656828.55 78191.4546 78191.45 0.10638 jan 2017
11770.54 691592.94 51767.0574 51767.06 0.0696393 feb 2017
6088.89 724070.31 -35510.31 35510.31 0.0515718 mar 2017
4396.88 715955.08 -10575.081 10575.08 0.014992 apr 2017
7257.37 716121.93 17878.0694 17878.07 0.024357 mei 2017
862.09 730530.53 -39970.531 39970.53 0.0578813 jun 2017
-1458.62 715404.41 -14504.407 14504.41 0.020694 jul 2017
4515.14 708144.03 37335.9729 37335.97 0.0500831 ags 2017
2980.17 727593.55 -9593.5549 9593.55 0.0133615 sep 2017
6471.96 726736.30 21823.6972 21823.70 0.0291542 okt 2017
2686.72 741937.74 -23657.743 23657.74 0.0329367 nov 2017
-1543.90 735161.37 -26441.368 26441.37 0.0373086 des 2017
-10546.28 723040.92 -56264.925 56264.92 0.0843835 jan 2018
689988.67 10090.3296 10090.33 0.0144131 feb 2018
al 871988.78 1.2727644
ad 37912.555669
pe 5.534%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0.00 709888 0 0 mar 2016
-3662.08 709888 -22888 22888 0.0333159 apr 2016
-3401.40 697070.72 1629.28 1629.28 0.0023319 mei 2016
707.24 694321.04 25678.9632 25678.96 0.0356652 jun 2016
10883.26 705299.86 63600.139 63600.14 0.0827157 jul 2016
17167.55 741623.18 39276.8223 39276.82 0.0502969 ags 2016
-10736.68 774501.46 -174401.46 174401.46 0.2906207 sep 2016
-19297.35 694004.19 -53504.195 53504.19 0.083535 okt 2016
-15190.02 653305.16 25670.8351 25670.84 0.0378082 nov 2016
-8531.38 648383.48 41616.5194 41616.52 0.0603138 des 2016
4032.03 656498.71 78521.2869 78521.29 0.1068288 jan 2017
12259.35 691939.26 51420.7415 51420.74 0.0691734 feb 2017
6466.24 724766.90 -36206.904 36206.90 0.0525835 mar 2017
4646.98 716750.39 -11370.387 11370.39 0.0161195 apr 2017
7391.11 716849.21 17150.785 17150.79 0.0233662 mei 2017
904.61 731100.64 -40540.637 40540.64 0.0587069 jun 2017
-1477.63 715788.99 -14888.989 14888.99 0.0212427 jul 2017
4462.25 708355.76 37124.2387 37124.24 0.0497991 ags 2017
2915.41 727667.70 -9667.7031 9667.70 0.0134648 sep 2017
6410.45 726716.04 21843.9644 21843.96 0.0291813 okt 2017
2637.00 741864.07 -23584.069 23584.07 0.0328341 nov 2017
-1578.59 735067.44 -26347.439 26347.44 0.0371761 des 2017
-10566.41 722949.87 -56173.87 56173.87 0.084247 jan 2018
-8940.00 689913.91 10165.0904 10165.09 0.0145199 feb 2018
685039.95 105606.052 105606.05 0.1335693 mar 2018
al 883272.32 1.2858465
ad 38403.14429
pe 5.591%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0.00 687000 0 0 apr 2016
1872.00 687000 11700 11700 0.0167454 mei 2016
6103.68 693552.00 26448 26448 0.0367333 jun 2016
15490.10 710234.88 58665.12 58665.12 0.0762975 jul 2016
20563.53 749191.03 31708.9728 31708.97 0.0406057 ags 2016
-8610.57 782438.15 -182338.15 182338.15 0.3038463 sep 2016
-18273.34 700892.32 -60392.321 60392.32 0.0942893 okt 2016
-14991.11 658462.05 20513.9479 20513.95 0.0302131 nov 2016
-8859.35 651676.52 38323.4779 38323.48 0.0555413 des 2016
3440.40 658146.56 76873.4393 76873.44 0.1045869 jan 2017
11604.18 692336.33 51023.6659 51023.67 0.0686392 feb 2017
5877.79 724349.98 -35789.985 35789.98 0.051978 mar 2017
4192.70 715911.78 -10531.777 10531.78 0.0149306 apr 2017
7090.02 715891.77 18108.2312 18108.23 0.0246706 mei 2017
743.61 730225.08 -39665.081 39665.08 0.057439 jun 2017
-1528.82 715102.65 -14202.655 14202.65 0.0202635 jul 2017
4485.14 707892.77 37587.2255 37587.23 0.0504202 ags 2017
2979.09 727412.80 -9412.8024 9412.80 0.0131098 sep 2017
6488.41 726626.77 21933.2292 21933.23 0.0293006 okt 2017
2711.05 741888.47 -23608.468 23608.47 0.0328681 nov 2017
-1518.73 735156.13 -26436.132 26436.13 0.0373012 des 2017
-10524.64 723062.95 -56286.949 56286.95 0.0844166 jan 2018
-8915.77 690023.53 10055.4724 10055.47 0.0143633 feb 2018
7966.80 685129.95 105516.05 105516.05 0.1334555 mar 2018
735303.17 -80957.172 80957.17 0.1237223 apr 2018
al 967121.15 1.3920148
ad 42048.745837
pe 6.052%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0.00 698700 0 0 mei 2016
3408.00 698700 21300 21300 0.0295833 jun 2016
12731.52 710628.00 58272 58272 0.0757862 jul 2016
18208.59 746668.32 34231.68 34231.68 0.0438362 ags 2016
-10346.54 778569.58 -178469.58 178469.58 0.2973997 sep 2016
-19360.18 696835.20 -56335.204 56335.20 0.087955 okt 2016
-15514.57 654940.95 24035.0542 24035.05 0.035399 nov 2016
-8961.03 649040.40 40959.6007 40959.60 0.0593617 des 2016
3608.05 656463.21 78556.7924 78556.79 0.1068771 jan 2017
11906.62 691493.98 51866.0207 51866.02 0.0697724 feb 2017
6212.70 724147.01 -35587.006 35587.01 0.0516832 mar 2017
4493.51 716124.90 -10744.901 10744.90 0.0152328 apr 2017
7322.24 716320.45 17679.5466 17679.55 0.0240866 mei 2017
897.52 730714.51 -40154.513 40154.51 0.0581478 jun 2017
-1446.52 715550.23 -14650.226 14650.23 0.020902 jul 2017
4511.30 708243.62 37236.382 37236.38 0.0499495 ags 2017
2967.39 727649.47 -9649.4743 9649.47 0.0134394 sep 2017
6455.86 726757.07 21802.9279 21802.93 0.0291265 okt 2017
2671.20 741934.10 -23654.099 23654.10 0.0329316 nov 2017
-1556.59 735143.66 -26423.66 26423.66 0.0372836 des 2017
-10555.24 723017.61 -56241.61 56241.61 0.0843486 jan 2018
-8937.12 689965.72 10113.2768 10113.28 0.0144459 feb 2018
7954.41 685073.92 105572.085 105572.08 0.1335264 mar 2018
-4991.37 735257.16 -80911.164 80911.16 0.123652 apr 2018
697901.33 36876.6731 36876.67 0.0501875 may 2018
al 1034446.80 1.4947265
ad 44975.947993
pe 6.499%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0.00 720000 0 0 jun 2016
7824.00 720000 48900 48900 0.0635973 jul 2016
13186.56 747384.00 33516 33516 0.0429197 ags 2016
-14633.75 773976.96 -173876.96 173876.96 0.2897466 sep 2016
-22520.54 689792.42 -49292.422 49292.42 0.0769593 okt 2016
-17493.17 647554.91 31421.0877 31421.09 0.0462772 nov 2016
-9914.00 642630.18 47369.8198 47369.82 0.0686519 des 2016
3422.95 651664.11 83355.8879 83355.89 0.1134063 jan 2017
12211.84 688429.41 54930.5866 54930.59 0.073895 feb 2017
6763.28 722613.49 -34053.488 34053.49 0.0494561 mar 2017
5103.22 715755.37 -10375.375 10375.37 0.0147089 apr 2017
7869.87 716708.45 17291.5533 17291.55 0.023558 mei 2017
1320.28 731494.94 -40934.938 40934.94 0.0592779 jun 2017
-1166.32 716441.24 -15541.243 15541.24 0.0221733 jul 2017
4661.13 709058.43 36421.5726 36421.57 0.0488565 ags 2017
3015.02 728288.19 -10288.189 10288.19 0.014329 sep 2017
6434.55 727187.94 21372.0637 21372.06 0.0285509 okt 2017
2611.94 742171.31 -23891.315 23891.31 0.0332618 nov 2017
-1629.13 735226.73 -26506.731 26506.73 0.0374009 des 2017
-10624.16 722994.90 -56218.904 56218.90 0.0843145 jan 2018
-8992.83 689883.18 10195.8166 10195.82 0.0145638 feb 2018
7915.54 684968.68 105677.318 105677.32 0.1336595 mar 2018
-5013.92 735155.15 -80809.151 80809.15 0.1234961 apr 2018
899.75 697817.57 36960.431 36960.43 0.0503015 may 2018
713501.49 -25845.489 25845.49 0.0375849 jun 2018
al 1049200.86 1.5133619
ad 45617.428501
pe 6.580%
trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN
0.00 768900 0 0 jul 2016
1920.00 768900 -12000 12000 0.0153669 ags 2016
-26163.20 775620.00 175520 175520 0.2924846 sep 2016
-32363.01 679248.80 38748.8 38748.80 0.0604977 okt 2016
-24748.65 631386.27 -47589.728 47589.73 0.0700904 nov 2016
-14456.41 625673.51 -64326.488 64326.49 0.0932268 des 2016
1235.16 636947.69 -98072.306 98072.31 0.1334281 jan 2017
11786.87 677411.77 -65948.228 65948.23 0.0887164 feb 2017
7464.00 715577.94 27017.9352 27017.94 0.0392383 mar 2017
6367.24 712234.76 6854.76364 6854.76 0.0097178 apr 2017
9269.62 715860.10 -18139.901 18139.90 0.0247138 mei 2017
2577.52 732385.68 41825.6837 41825.68 0.0605678 jun 2017
-195.75 718232.93 17332.9254 17332.93 0.0247295 jul 2017
5304.41 711104.00 -34375.998 34376.00 0.0461126 ags 2017
3359.00 730158.81 12158.8081 12158.81 0.0169343 sep 2017
6543.91 728654.28 -19905.718 19905.72 0.026592 okt 2017
2563.04 743160.48 24880.4817 24880.48 0.034639 nov 2017
-1765.18 735771.32 27051.3242 27051.32 0.0381693 des 2017
-10790.72 723185.62 56409.6178 56409.62 0.0846006 jan 2018
-9151.04 689831.06 -10247.945 10247.94 0.0146383 feb 2018
7787.65 684779.19 -105866.81 105866.81 0.1338991 mar 2018
-5103.16 734913.56 80567.5587 80567.56 0.1231268 apr 2018
847.98 697583.37 -37194.629 37194.63 0.0506202 may 2018
-3256.54 713309.20 25653.1994 25653.20 0.0373053 jun 2018
699791.38 64113.3844 64113.38 0.1008583 jul 2018
al 1047688.85 1.5194155
ad 45551.689147
pe 6.606%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0.00 780900 0 0 ags 2016
-28928.00 780900 180800 180800 0.3012831 sep 2016
-35192.32 679652.00 39152 39152 0.0611272 okt 2016
-27163.98 628798.88 -50177.12 50177.12 0.0739012 nov 2016
-16236.90 621705.75 -68294.253 68294.25 0.0989772 des 2016
120.45 632786.55 -102233.45 102233.45 0.1390893 jan 2017
11249.99 673800.38 -69559.619 69559.62 0.0935746 feb 2017
7359.72 712874.22 24314.2195 24314.22 0.0353117 mar 2017
6539.20 710508.25 5128.24763 5128.25 0.0072702 apr 2017
9579.81 714996.14 -19003.855 19003.86 0.0258908 mei 2017
2921.01 732177.50 41617.5001 41617.50 0.0602663 jun 2017
112.77 718451.51 17551.5132 17551.51 0.0250414 jul 2017
5542.58 711543.68 -33936.321 33936.32 0.0455228 ags 2017
3516.86 730660.79 12660.7897 12660.79 0.0176334 sep 2017
6628.32 729113.33 -19446.67 19446.67 0.0259788 okt 2017
2589.87 743520.32 25240.3212 25240.32 0.0351399 nov 2017
-1777.18 736014.06 27294.0646 27294.06 0.0385118 des 2017
-10824.10 723319.26 56543.2603 56543.26 0.084801 jan 2018
-9191.92 689877.86 -10201.144 10201.14 0.0145714 feb 2018
7748.82 684766.40 -105879.6 105879.60 0.1339153 mar 2018
-5134.55 734867.06 80521.0574 80521.06 0.1230558 apr 2018
826.08 697524.08 -37253.915 37253.92 0.0507009 may 2018
-3269.24 713251.73 25595.7276 25595.73 0.0372217 jun 2018
-13519.83 699744.20 64066.1969 64066.20 0.100784 jul 2018
660597.89 5809.88694 5809.89 0.0088729 aug 2018
al 1116470.85 1.6295699
ad 48542.210914
pe 7.085%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0.00 600100 0 0 sep 2016
6464.00 600100 -40400 40400 0.0630757 okt 2016
15464.32 622724.00 -56252 56252 0.0828483 nov 2016
20154.06 660689.12 -29310.88 29310.88 0.0424795 des 2016
26946.46 692567.53 -42452.467 42452.47 0.0577569 jan 2017
28044.86 736494.98 -6865.0248 6865.02 0.0092351 feb 2017
15448.72 767285.84 78725.8447 78725.84 0.114334 mar 2017
8110.45 751244.23 45864.2312 45864.23 0.0650206 apr 2017
6989.01 741008.99 7008.98608 7008.99 0.009549 mei 2017
-1752.49 745194.40 54634.4013 54634.40 0.0791161 jun 2017
-5062.60 721588.15 20688.1462 20688.15 0.0295165 jul 2017
894.16 708250.29 -37229.71 37229.71 0.0499406 ags 2017
-71.66 724036.33 6036.3295 6036.33 0.0084071 sep 2017
4249.92 721550.14 -27009.859 27009.86 0.0360824 okt 2017
1318.08 736604.00 18324.0048 18324.00 0.0255109 nov 2017
-2181.52 730592.48 21872.4826 21872.48 0.030862 des 2017
-10643.27 719661.97 52885.972 52885.97 0.079316 jan 2018
-8688.92 687864.31 -12214.69 12214.69 0.0174476 feb 2018
8364.64 684061.26 -106584.74 106584.74 0.1348072 mar 2018
-4549.57 735059.79 80713.7932 80713.79 0.1233503 apr 2018
1298.96 698224.70 -36553.296 36553.30 0.0497474 may 2018
-2939.28 714144.98 26488.9781 26488.98 0.0385207 jun 2018
-13328.42 700610.11 64932.106 64932.11 0.1021462 jul 2018
-14371.75 661308.85 6520.84571 6520.85 0.0099587 aug 2018
644328.75 -46478.246 46478.25 0.0672811 sep 2018
al 879568.79 1.2590289
ad 38242.12109
pe 5.474%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0.00 640500 0 0 okt 2016
6156.16 640500 -38476 38476 0.0566677 nov 2016
10628.71 662046.56 -27953.44 27953.44 0.0405122 des 2016
18814.85 683856.65 -51163.354 51163.35 0.0696081 jan 2017
22050.55 723136.83 -20223.165 20223.17 0.0272051 feb 2017
11695.89 753276.65 64716.6543 64716.65 0.0939884 mar 2017
6302.95 739085.88 33705.8813 33705.88 0.047784 apr 2017
6637.91 731906.48 -2093.5235 2093.52 0.0028522 mei 2017
-1173.58 739381.80 48821.7974 48821.80 0.0706988 jun 2017
-4018.30 718679.50 17779.5023 17779.50 0.0253667 jul 2017
2050.60 707549.40 -37930.595 37930.60 0.0508808 ags 2017
967.04 724772.24 6772.24169 6772.24 0.0094321 sep 2017
5051.78 723030.39 -25529.615 25529.61 0.034105 okt 2017
1849.54 738294.01 20014.0095 20014.01 0.0278638 nov 2017
-1897.33 732137.94 23417.9426 23417.94 0.0330426 des 2017
-10552.92 720873.43 54097.4317 54097.43 0.0811328 jan 2018
-8729.33 688681.54 -11397.464 11397.46 0.0162803 feb 2018
8252.24 684511.19 -106134.81 106134.81 0.1342381 mar 2018
-4687.18 735217.36 80871.3562 80871.36 0.1235911 apr 2018
1168.24 698181.64 -36596.363 36596.36 0.049806 may 2018
-3044.95 713988.42 26332.4238 26332.42 0.038293 jun 2018
-13402.15 700410.51 64732.5079 64732.51 0.1018322 jul 2018
-14414.52 661115.36 6327.35718 6327.36 0.0096632 aug 2018
-6952.59 644169.89 -46637.11 46637.11 0.0675111 sep 2018
655872.15 -683.85332 683.85 0.0010416 oct 2018
al 851724.54 1.2123553
ad 37031.501846
pe 5.271%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0.00 678976 0 0 nov 2016
1763.84 678976 -11024 11024 0.0159768 des 2016
9743.13 685149.44 -49870.56 49870.56 0.0678493 jan 2017
14306.20 714840.79 -28519.206 28519.21 0.0383653 feb 2017
5987.05 740554.68 51994.6788 51994.68 0.0755122 mar 2017
2728.84 725743.86 20363.8613 20363.86 0.0288693 apr 2017
4916.49 720327.15 -13672.847 13672.85 0.0186279 mei 2017
-1507.95 730712.78 40152.7835 40152.78 0.0581452 jun 2017
-3466.95 713143.72 12243.7165 12243.72 0.0174686 jul 2017
3045.17 704779.28 -40700.718 40700.72 0.0545967 ags 2017
2068.41 724104.74 6104.73565 6104.74 0.0085024 sep 2017
6041.01 723731.25 -24828.75 24828.75 0.0331687 okt 2017
2613.21 739703.76 21423.7591 21423.76 0.0298265 nov 2017
-1391.19 733747.46 25027.4629 25027.46 0.0353136 des 2017
-10282.27 722345.29 55569.2911 55569.29 0.0833403 jan 2018
-8643.28 689835.30 -10243.699 10243.70 0.0146322 feb 2018
8213.76 685289.50 -105356.5 105356.50 0.1332537 mar 2018
-4794.22 735645.86 81299.8583 81299.86 0.124246 apr 2018
1037.19 698331.70 -36446.304 36446.30 0.0496018 may 2018
-3169.44 713947.41 26291.4077 26291.41 0.0382334 jun 2018
-13502.78 700261.41 64583.4093 64583.41 0.1015977 jul 2018
-14484.74 660925.26 6137.26477 6137.26 0.0093729 aug 2018
-6993.32 643985.62 -46821.384 46821.38 0.0677778 sep 2018
-6859.70 655720.85 -835.15227 835.15 0.001272 oct 2018
649195.21 -27459.789 27459.79 0.0405817 nov 2018
al 779511.35 1.1055501
ad 33891.797816
pe 4.807%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0.00 690000 0 0 des 2016
7203.20 690000 -45020 45020 0.06125 jan 2017
11707.01 715211.20 -28148.8 28148.8 0.037867 feb 2017
3768.17 738177.73 49617.728 49617.73 0.0720601 mar 2017
1093.16 722098.81 16718.8083 16718.81 0.0237018 apr 2017
3892.45 716504.45 -17495.553 17495.55 0.0238359 mei 2017
-2001.17 727395.12 36835.1189 36835.12 0.0533409 jun 2017
-3562.75 710659.90 9759.90298 9759.90 0.0139248 jul 2017
3203.14 703193.19 -42286.811 42286.81 0.0567243 ags 2017
2353.37 723311.05 5311.05026 5311.05 0.007397 sep 2017
6356.57 723540.00 -25020.001 25020.00 0.0334242 okt 2017
2896.64 739904.57 21624.5684 21624.57 0.030106 nov 2017
-1172.38 734151.38 25431.3791 25431.38 0.0358835 des 2017
-10137.25 722806.44 56030.4449 56030.44 0.0840319 jan 2018
-8565.74 690257.01 -9821.9868 9821.99 0.0140298 feb 2018
8238.41 685620.07 -105025.93 105025.93 0.1328356 mar 2018
-4805.24 735868.86 81522.8558 81522.86 0.1245868 apr 2018
1006.52 698454.47 -36323.531 36323.53 0.0494347 may 2018
-3206.98 713990.40 26334.4021 26334.40 0.0382959 jun 2018
-13538.45 700249.66 64571.6575 64571.66 0.1015792 jul 2018
-14513.58 660882.55 6094.54558 6094.55 0.0093077 aug 2018
-7013.44 643931.15 -46875.849 46875.85 0.0678567 sep 2018
-6871.37 655668.05 -887.94974 887.95 0.0013524 oct 2018
-2470.87 649151.86 -27503.138 27503.14 0.0406457 nov 2018
657682.25 -81217.749 81217.75 0.1099171 dec 2018
al 784262.01 1.113472
ad 34098.348236
pe 4.841%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0.00 735020 0 0 jan 2017
1334.40 735020 -8340 8340 0.0112193 feb 2017
-6846.46 739690.40 51130.4 51130.4 0.074257 mar 2017
-7968.35 712391.78 7011.776 7011.78 0.0099404 apr 2017
-2787.34 701618.72 -32381.283 32381.28 0.0441162 mei 2017
-6183.16 711783.89 21223.8875 21223.89 0.0307343 jun 2017
-5576.95 697111.17 -3788.8324 3788.83 0.0054057 jul 2017
2811.89 693049.75 -52430.251 52430.25 0.0703309 ags 2017
2998.49 716833.74 -1166.2623 1166.26 0.0016243 sep 2017
7520.29 720298.73 -28261.267 28261.27 0.0377542 okt 2017
4185.33 739123.53 20843.5329 20843.53 0.0290187 nov 2017
-14.90 734971.45 26251.4476 26251.45 0.0370406 des 2017
-9243.70 724455.96 57679.9648 57679.96 0.0865058 jan 2018
-7973.50 692140.28 -7938.7193 7938.72 0.0113397 feb 2018
8555.09 687342.27 -103303.73 103303.73 0.1306574 mar 2018
-4704.56 737218.85 82872.8537 82872.85 0.1266499 apr 2018
961.49 699365.15 -35412.85 35412.85 0.0481953 may 2018
-3332.23 714491.78 26835.7839 26835.78 0.039025 jun 2018
-13691.79 700425.24 64747.2388 64747.24 0.1018554 jul 2018
-14659.24 660834.55 6046.55351 6046.55 0.0092344 aug 2018
-7131.19 643756.69 -47050.306 47050.31 0.0681092 sep 2018
-6953.53 655445.63 -1110.3731 1110.37 0.0016912 oct 2018
-2518.53 648936.25 -27718.753 27718.75 0.0409644 nov 2018
10504.64 657505.22 -81394.781 81394.78 0.1101567 dec 2018
700567.77 jan 2019
al 794940.85 1.125826
ad 34562.645741
pe 4.895%
ata Acuan 18 Bulan

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480 0 0
690,876.00 690876 698678.00 -3901.00 706480 -15604 15604
709,888.00 709888 702332.50 -123.25 694777 15111 15111
687,000.00 687000 694604.63 -3925.56 702209.25 -15209.25 15209.25
698,700.00 698700 694689.53 -1920.33 690679.0625 8020.9375 8020.94
720,000.00 720000 706384.60 4887.37 692769.20 27230.796875 27230.80
768,900.00 768900 740085.99 19294.38 711271.97 57628.027344 57628.03
780,900.00 780900 770140.18 24674.29 759380.36 21519.635742 21519.64
600,100.00 600100 697457.23 -24004.33 794814.47 -194714.469 194714.47
640,500.00 640500 656976.45 -32242.56 673452.90 -32952.90411 32952.90
678,976.00 678976 651854.95 -18682.03 624733.90 54242.104355 54242.10
690,000.00 690000 661586.46 -4475.26 633172.92 56827.0825 56827.08
735,020.00 735020 696065.60 15001.94 657111.20 77908.800948 77908.80
743,360.00 743360 727213.77 23075.06 711067.54 32292.459935 32292.46
688,560.00 688560 719424.41 7642.85 750288.83 -61728.82556 61728.83
705,380.00 705380 716223.63 2221.03 727067.26 -21687.26191 21687.26
734,000.00 734000 726222.33 6109.87 718444.66 15555.335388 15555.34
690,560.00 690560 711446.10 -4333.18 732332.20 -41772.19981 41772.20
700,900.00 700900 704006.46 -5886.41 707112.92 -6212.917455 6212.92
745,480.00 745480 721800.02 5953.58 698120.05 47359.953085 47359.95
718,000.00 718000 722876.80 3515.18 727753.60 -9753.599916 9753.60
748,560.00 748560 737475.99 9057.18 726391.98 22168.023563 22168.02
718,280.00 718280 732406.59 1993.89 746533.17 -28253.17059 28253.17
708,720.00 708720 721560.24 -4426.23 734400.48 -25680.47502 25680.48
666,776.00 666776 707112.92 -40336.91746 40336.92
total 889433.23
mad 38671.0100259
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


690,876.00 690876 690876 0.00 690876 0 0
709,888.00 709888 700382.00 4753.00 690876 19012 19012
687,000.00 687000 696067.50 219.25 705135 -18135 18135
698,700.00 698700 697493.38 822.56 696286.75 2413.25 2413.25
720,000.00 720000 709157.97 6243.58 698315.94 21684.0625 21684.06
768,900.00 768900 742150.77 19618.19 715401.55 53498.453125 53498.45
780,900.00 780900 771334.48 24400.95 761768.96 19131.035156 19131.04
600,100.00 600100 697917.72 -24507.91 795735.43 -195635.4326 195635.43
640,500.00 640500 656954.90 -32735.36 673409.81 -32909.80835 32909.81
678,976.00 678976 651597.77 -19046.25 624219.54 54756.455872 54756.46
690,000.00 690000 661275.76 -4684.13 632551.53 57448.474014 57448.47
735,020.00 735020 695805.82 14922.96 656591.64 78428.364582 78428.36
743,360.00 743360 727044.39 23080.77 710728.78 32631.21872 32631.22
688,560.00 688560 719342.58 7689.48 750125.16 -61565.15889 61565.16
705,380.00 705380 716206.03 2276.46 727032.06 -21652.05797 21652.06
734,000.00 734000 726241.25 6155.84 718482.49 15517.506979 15517.51
690,560.00 690560 711478.54 -4303.43 732397.09 -41837.08729 41837.09
700,900.00 700900 704037.56 -5872.21 707175.11 -6275.112602 6275.11
745,480.00 745480 721822.67 5956.45 698165.35 47314.652893 47314.65
718,000.00 718000 722889.56 3511.67 727779.13 -9779.127583 9779.13
748,560.00 748560 737480.62 9051.36 726401.24 22158.764075 22158.76
718,280.00 718280 732405.99 1988.37 746531.98 -28251.98112 28251.98
708,720.00 708720 721557.18 -4430.22 734394.36 -25674.35843 25674.36
666,776.00 666776 691951.48 -17017.96 717126.96 -50350.95748 50350.96
700,079.00 700079 674933.52 25145.482364 25145.48
total 916060.32
mad 39828.709576
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


709,888.00 709888 709888 0.00 709888 0 0
687,000.00 687000 698444.00 -5722.00 709888 -22888 22888
698,700.00 698700 695711.00 -4227.50 692722 5978 5978
720,000.00 720000 705741.75 2901.63 691483.5 28516.5 28516.50
768,900.00 768900 738771.69 17965.78 708643.38 60256.625 60256.63
780,900.00 780900 768818.73 24006.41 756737.47 24162.53125 24162.53
600,100.00 600100 696462.57 -24174.87 792825.15 -192725.1484 192725.15
640,500.00 640500 656393.85 -32121.80 672287.70 -31787.70117 31787.70
678,976.00 678976 651624.03 -18445.81 624272.05 54703.947754 54703.95
690,000.00 690000 661589.11 -4240.37 633178.21 56821.785278 56821.79
735,020.00 735020 696184.37 15177.45 657348.74 77671.257721 77671.26
743,360.00 743360 727360.91 23176.99 711361.82 31998.179512 31998.18
688,560.00 688560 719548.95 7682.52 750537.90 -61977.90447 61977.90
705,380.00 705380 716305.74 2219.65 727231.47 -21851.47034 21851.47
734,000.00 734000 726262.69 6088.30 718525.39 15474.614305 15474.61
690,560.00 690560 711455.50 -4359.45 732351.00 -41790.99695 41791.00
700,900.00 700900 703998.03 -5908.46 707096.05 -6196.053336 6196.05
745,480.00 745480 721784.78 5939.15 698089.57 47390.431804 47390.43
718,000.00 718000 722861.97 3508.17 727723.93 -9723.933578 9723.93
748,560.00 748560 737465.07 9055.63 726370.13 22189.867126 22189.87
718,280.00 718280 732400.35 1995.46 746520.70 -28240.6993 28240.70
708,720.00 708720 721557.90 -4423.49 734395.81 -25675.80769 25675.81
666,776.00 666776 691955.20 -17013.10 717134.41 -50358.40996 50358.41
700,079.00 700079 687510.55 -10728.87 674942.11 25136.891391 25136.89
790,646.00 790646 676781.68 113864.31922 113864.32
total 943516.76
mad 41022.4676689
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


687,000.00 687000 687000 0.00 687000 0 0
698,700.00 698700 692850.00 2925.00 687000 11700 11700
720,000.00 720000 707887.50 8981.25 695775 24225 24225
768,900.00 768900 742884.38 21989.06 716868.75 52031.25 52031.25
780,900.00 780900 772886.72 25995.70 764873.44 16026.5625 16026.56
600,100.00 600100 699491.21 -23699.90 798882.42 -198782.4219 198782.42
640,500.00 640500 658145.65 -32522.73 675791.31 -35291.30859 35291.31
678,976.00 678976 652299.46 -19184.46 625622.92 53353.075195 53353.08
690,000.00 690000 661557.50 -4963.21 633115.00 56884.998291 56885.00
735,020.00 735020 695807.14 14643.22 656594.29 78425.710266 78425.71
743,360.00 743360 726905.18 22870.63 710450.36 32909.638687 32909.64
688,560.00 688560 719167.90 7566.67 749775.81 -61215.80677 61215.81
705,380.00 705380 716057.29 2228.03 726734.58 -21354.57781 21354.58
734,000.00 734000 726142.66 6156.70 718285.32 15714.681123 15714.68
690,560.00 690560 711429.68 -4278.14 732299.36 -41739.35969 41739.36
700,900.00 700900 704025.77 -5841.02 707151.54 -6251.540175 6251.54
745,480.00 745480 721832.37 5982.79 698184.75 47295.254627 47295.25
718,000.00 718000 722907.58 3529.00 727815.16 -9815.161629 9815.16
748,560.00 748560 737498.29 9059.85 726436.58 22123.42065 22123.42
718,280.00 718280 732419.07 1990.32 746558.14 -28278.14337 28278.14
708,720.00 708720 721564.69 -4432.03 734409.39 -25689.38954 25689.39
666,776.00 666776 691954.33 -17021.20 717132.67 -50356.66524 50356.67
700,079.00 700079 687506.07 -10734.73 674933.14 25145.863221 25145.86
790,646.00 790646 733708.67 17733.94 676771.34 113874.66165 113874.66
654,346.00 654346 751442.60 -97096.60455 97096.60
total 1028484.49
mad 44716.716996
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


698,700.00 698700 698700 0.00 698700 0 0
720,000.00 720000 709350.00 5325.00 698700 21300 21300
768,900.00 768900 741787.50 18881.25 714675 54225 54225
780,900.00 780900 770784.38 23939.06 760668.75 20231.25 20231.25
600,100.00 600100 697411.72 -24716.80 794723.44 -194623.4375 194623.44
640,500.00 640500 656597.46 -32765.53 672694.92 -32194.92188 32194.92
678,976.00 678976 651403.97 -18979.51 623831.93 55144.066406 55144.07
690,000.00 690000 661212.23 -4585.62 632424.46 57575.543945 57575.54
735,020.00 735020 695823.30 15012.72 656626.60 78393.396729 78393.40
743,360.00 743360 727098.01 23143.72 710836.03 32523.973938 32523.97
688,560.00 688560 719400.87 7723.29 750241.73 -61681.73094 61681.73
705,380.00 705380 716252.08 2287.25 727124.15 -21744.15065 21744.15
734,000.00 734000 726269.66 6152.42 718539.32 15460.677163 15460.68
690,560.00 690560 711491.04 -4313.10 732422.08 -41862.07822 41862.08
700,900.00 700900 704038.97 -5882.59 707177.94 -6277.93636 6277.94
745,480.00 745480 721818.19 5948.32 698156.38 47323.618661 47323.62
718,000.00 718000 722883.25 3506.69 727766.51 -9766.508493 9766.51
748,560.00 748560 737474.97 9049.20 726389.94 22170.055053 22170.06
718,280.00 718280 732402.09 1988.16 746524.18 -28244.17694 28244.18
708,720.00 708720 721555.12 -4429.40 734390.25 -25670.2487 25670.25
666,776.00 666776 691950.86 -17016.83 717125.72 -50349.7224 50349.72
700,079.00 700079 687506.51 -10730.59 674934.03 25144.971344 25144.97
790,646.00 790646 733710.96 17736.93 676775.92 113870.07538 113870.08
654,346.00 654346 702896.95 -6538.54 751447.89 -97101.89144 97101.89
734,778.00 734778 696358.40 38419.598003 38419.60
total 1112879.43
mad 48386.0622672
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


720,000.00 720000 720000 0.00 720000 0 0
768,900.00 768900 744450.00 12225.00 720000 48900 48900
780,900.00 780900 768787.50 18281.25 756675 24225 24225
600,100.00 600100 693584.38 -28460.94 787068.75 -186968.75 186968.75
640,500.00 640500 652811.72 -34616.80 665123.44 -24623.4375 24623.44
678,976.00 678976 648585.46 -19421.53 618194.92 60781.078125 60781.08
690,000.00 690000 659581.97 -4212.51 629163.93 60836.066406 60836.07
735,020.00 735020 695194.73 15700.13 655369.46 79650.543945 79650.54
743,360.00 743360 727127.43 23816.41 710894.85 32465.146729 32465.15
688,560.00 688560 719751.92 8220.45 750943.84 -62383.83856 62383.84
705,380.00 705380 716676.19 2572.36 727972.37 -22592.37157 22592.37
734,000.00 734000 726624.27 6260.22 719248.55 14751.454823 14751.45
690,560.00 690560 711722.25 -4320.90 732884.50 -42324.49569 42324.50
700,900.00 700900 704150.67 -5946.24 707401.35 -6501.347022 6501.35
745,480.00 745480 721842.22 5872.65 698204.44 47275.564067 47275.56
718,000.00 718000 722857.44 3443.94 727714.87 -9714.871405 9714.87
748,560.00 748560 737430.69 9008.59 726301.37 22258.62871 22258.63
718,280.00 718280 732359.64 1968.77 746439.28 -28159.27841 28159.28
708,720.00 708720 721524.21 -4433.33 734328.41 -25608.41237 25608.41
666,776.00 666776 691933.44 -17012.05 717090.88 -50314.87625 50314.88
700,079.00 700079 687500.19 -10722.65 674921.39 25157.610866 25157.61
790,646.00 790646 733711.77 17744.47 676777.55 113868.45171 113868.45
654,346.00 654346 702901.12 -6533.09 751456.24 -97110.2408 97110.24
734,778.00 734778 715573.01 3069.40 696368.03 38409.97315 38409.97
687,656.00 687656 718642.41 -30986.41316 30986.41
total 1124881.44
mad 48907.8886131
mape
QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|
768,900.00 768900 768900 0.00 768900 0 0
780,900.00 780900 774900.00 3000.00 768900 -12000 12000
600,100.00 600100 689000.00 -41450.00 777900 177800 177800
640,500.00 640500 644025.00 -43212.50 647550 7050 7050.00
678,976.00 678976 639894.25 -23671.63 600812.50 -78163.5 78163.50
690,000.00 690000 653111.31 -5227.28 616222.63 -73777.375 73777.38
735,020.00 735020 691452.02 16556.71 647884.03 -87135.96875 87135.97
743,360.00 743360 725684.36 25394.53 708008.73 -35351.27344 35351.27
688,560.00 688560 719819.45 9764.81 751078.89 62518.892578 62518.89
705,380.00 705380 717482.13 3713.74 729584.25 24204.252441 24204.25
734,000.00 734000 727597.93 6914.78 721195.87 -12804.13074 12804.13
690,560.00 690560 712536.36 -4073.40 734512.71 43952.710358 43952.71
700,900.00 700900 704681.48 -5964.14 708462.95 7562.9533157 7562.95
745,480.00 745480 722098.67 5726.53 698717.34 -46762.66353 46762.66
718,000.00 718000 722912.60 3270.23 727825.19 9825.1939244 9825.19
748,560.00 748560 737371.41 8864.52 726182.82 -22377.17583 22377.18
718,280.00 718280 732257.97 1875.54 746235.93 27955.933254 27955.93
708,720.00 708720 721426.75 -4477.84 734133.50 25413.504481 25413.50
666,776.00 666776 691862.46 -17021.07 716948.91 50172.913974 50172.91
700,079.00 700079 687460.20 -10711.66 674841.39 -25237.60977 25237.61
790,646.00 790646 733697.27 17762.70 676748.53 -113897.4692 113897.47
654,346.00 654346 702902.98 -6515.79 751459.97 97113.968383 97113.97
734,778.00 734778 715582.60 3081.91 696387.20 -38390.80492 38390.80
687,656.00 687656 703160.25 -4670.22 718664.51 31008.509658 31008.51
635,678.00 635678 698490.04 62812.039533 62812.04
total 1110476.80
mad 48281.6001543
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


780,900.00 780900 780900 0.00 780900 0 0
600,100.00 600100 690500.00 -45200.00 780900 180800 180800
640,500.00 640500 642900.00 -46400.00 645300 4800 4800
678,976.00 678976 637738.00 -25781.00 596500 -82476 82476.00
690,000.00 690000 650978.50 -6270.25 611957.00 -78043 78043.00
735,020.00 735020 689864.13 16307.69 644708.25 -90311.75 90311.75
743,360.00 743360 724765.91 25604.73 706171.81 -37188.1875 37188.19
688,560.00 688560 719465.32 10152.07 750370.64 61810.640625 61810.64
705,380.00 705380 717498.70 4092.73 729617.39 24237.394531 24237.39
734,000.00 734000 727795.71 7194.87 721591.42 -12408.57715 12408.58
690,560.00 690560 712775.29 -3912.78 734990.58 44430.581299 44430.58
700,900.00 700900 704881.26 -5903.40 708862.52 7962.5151978 7962.52
745,480.00 745480 722228.93 5722.13 698977.85 -46502.14665 46502.15
718,000.00 718000 722975.53 3234.37 727951.06 9951.0590858 9951.06
748,560.00 748560 737384.95 8821.89 726209.90 -22350.10282 22350.10
718,280.00 718280 732243.42 1840.18 746206.84 27926.841936 27926.84
708,720.00 708720 721401.80 -4500.72 734083.60 25363.603829 25363.60
666,776.00 666776 691838.54 -17031.99 716901.08 50125.083818 50125.08
700,079.00 700079 687442.78 -10713.88 674806.55 -25272.44714 25272.45
790,646.00 790646 733687.45 17765.40 676728.90 -113917.1008 113917.10
654,346.00 654346 702899.42 -6511.31 751452.85 97106.847525 97106.85
734,778.00 734778 715583.05 3086.16 696388.11 -38389.89018 38389.89
687,656.00 687656 703162.61 -4667.14 718669.21 31013.213519 31013.21
635,678.00 635678 667086.73 -20371.51 698495.46 62817.461986 62817.46
654,788.00 654788 646715.22 -8072.779277 8072.78
total 1175204.45
mad 51095.8454618
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


600,100.00 600100 600100 0.00 600100 0 0
640,500.00 640500 620300.00 10100.00 600100 -40400 40400
678,976.00 678976 654688.00 22244.00 630400 -48576 48576
690,000.00 690000 683466.00 25511.00 676932 -13068 13068.00
735,020.00 735020 721998.50 32021.75 708977.00 -26043 26043.00
743,360.00 743360 748690.13 29356.69 754020.25 10660.25 10660.25
688,560.00 688560 733303.41 6984.98 778046.81 89486.8125 89486.81
705,380.00 705380 722834.20 -1742.11 740288.39 34908.390625 34908.39
734,000.00 734000 727546.04 1484.87 721092.08 -12907.91797 12907.92
690,560.00 690560 709795.45 -8132.86 729030.91 38470.907227 38470.91
700,900.00 700900 701281.30 -8323.51 701662.59 762.59301758 762.59
745,480.00 745480 719218.89 4807.04 692957.79 -52522.21234 52522.21
718,000.00 718000 721012.97 3300.56 724025.94 6025.9380646 6025.94
748,560.00 748560 736436.76 9362.18 724313.53 -24246.47125 24246.47
718,280.00 718280 732039.47 2482.44 745798.94 27518.941907 27518.94
708,720.00 708720 721620.96 -3968.04 734521.91 25801.913008 25801.91
666,776.00 666776 692214.46 -16687.27 717652.92 50876.920307 50876.92
700,079.00 700079 687803.10 -10549.31 675527.19 -24551.80612 24551.81
790,646.00 790646 733949.89 17798.74 677253.78 -113392.2178 113392.22
654,346.00 654346 703047.32 -6551.92 751748.63 97402.630805 97402.63
734,778.00 734778 715636.70 3018.73 696495.40 -38282.60259 38282.60
687,656.00 687656 703155.72 -4731.13 718655.43 30999.431358 30999.43
635,678.00 635678 667051.30 -20417.77 698424.59 62746.590493 62746.59
654,788.00 654788 650710.76 -18379.15 646633.52 -8154.477562 8154.48
690,807.00 690807 632331.61 -58475.3922 58475.39
total 877806.02
mad 38165.4793456
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


640,500.00 640500 640500 0.00 640500 0 0
678,976.00 678976 659738.00 9619.00 640500 -38476 38476
690,000.00 690000 679678.50 14779.75 669357 -20643 20643
735,020.00 735020 714739.13 24920.19 694458.25 -40561.75 40561.75
743,360.00 743360 741509.66 25845.36 739659.31 -3700.6875 3700.69
688,560.00 688560 727957.51 6146.61 767355.02 78795.015625 78795.02
705,380.00 705380 719742.06 -1034.42 734104.11 28724.113281 28724.11
734,000.00 734000 726353.82 2788.67 718707.63 -15292.36621 15292.37
690,560.00 690560 709851.24 -6856.95 729142.49 38582.485596 38582.49
700,900.00 700900 701947.15 -7380.53 702994.29 2094.2901001 2094.29
745,480.00 745480 720023.31 5347.82 694566.62 -50913.38017 50913.38
718,000.00 718000 721685.56 3505.04 725371.13 7371.129734 7371.13
748,560.00 748560 736875.30 9347.39 725190.60 -23369.39775 23369.40
718,280.00 718280 732251.34 2361.71 746222.69 27942.68795 27942.69
708,720.00 708720 721666.53 -4111.55 734613.06 25893.058811 25893.06
666,776.00 666776 692165.49 -16806.29 717554.98 50778.979539 50778.98
700,079.00 700079 687719.10 -10626.34 675359.20 -24719.80498 24719.80
790,646.00 790646 733869.38 17761.97 677092.75 -113553.246 113553.25
654,346.00 654346 702988.67 -6559.37 751631.34 97285.344995 97285.34
734,778.00 734778 715603.65 3027.81 696429.30 -38348.69576 38348.70
687,656.00 687656 703143.73 -4716.06 718631.46 30975.457805 30975.46
635,678.00 635678 667052.84 -20403.48 698427.67 62749.670135 62749.67
654,788.00 654788 650718.68 -18368.82 646649.36 -8138.641233 8138.64
690,807.00 690807 661578.43 -3754.53 632349.86 -58457.13661 58457.14
656,556.00 656556 657823.90 1267.899855 1267.90
total 887366.34
mad 38581.1452079
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


678,976.00 678976 678976 0.00 678976 0 0
690,000.00 690000 684488.00 2756.00 678976 -11024 11024
735,020.00 735020 711132.00 14700.00 687244 -47776 47776
743,360.00 743360 734596.00 19082.00 725832 -17528 17528.00
688,560.00 688560 721119.00 2802.50 753678.00 65118 65118.00
705,380.00 705380 714650.75 -1832.88 723921.50 18541.5 18541.50
734,000.00 734000 723408.94 3462.66 712817.88 -21182.125 21182.13
690,560.00 690560 708715.80 -5615.24 726871.59 36311.59375 36311.59
700,900.00 700900 702000.28 -6165.38 703100.55 2200.5546875 2200.55
745,480.00 745480 720657.45 6245.90 695834.90 -49645.10352 49645.10
718,000.00 718000 722451.67 4020.06 726903.34 8903.3432617 8903.34
748,560.00 748560 737515.87 9542.13 726471.73 -22088.26917 22088.27
718,280.00 718280 732669.00 2347.63 747057.99 28777.991913 28777.99
708,720.00 708720 721868.31 -4226.53 735016.62 26296.624474 26296.62
666,776.00 666776 692208.89 -16942.97 717641.78 50865.784636 50865.78
700,079.00 700079 687672.46 -10739.70 675265.92 -24813.08144 24813.08
790,646.00 790646 733789.38 17688.61 676932.76 -113713.2441 113713.24
654,346.00 654346 702911.99 -6594.39 751477.99 97131.98557 97131.99
734,778.00 734778 715547.80 3020.71 696317.60 -38460.39598 38460.40
687,656.00 687656 703112.26 -4707.42 718568.51 30912.512244 30912.51
635,678.00 635678 667041.42 -20389.13 698404.84 62726.838293 62726.84
654,788.00 654788 650720.15 -18355.20 646652.29 -8135.708255 8135.71
690,807.00 690807 661585.97 -3744.69 632364.95 -58442.05447 58442.05
656,556.00 656556 657198.64 -4066.01 657841.29 1285.2860454 1285.29
676,655.00 676655 653132.63 -23522.36521 23522.37
total 841880.00
mad 36603.4781224
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


690,000.00 690000 690000 0.00 690000 0 0
735,020.00 735020 712510.00 11255.00 690000 -45020 45020
743,360.00 743360 733562.50 16153.75 723765 -19595 19595
688,560.00 688560 719138.13 864.69 749716.25 61156.25 61156.25
705,380.00 705380 712691.41 -2791.02 720002.81 14622.8125 14622.81
734,000.00 734000 721950.20 3233.89 709900.39 -24099.60938 24099.61
690,560.00 690560 707872.04 -5422.13 725184.08 34624.082031 34624.08
700,900.00 700900 701674.95 -5809.61 702449.91 1549.9072266 1549.91
745,480.00 745480 720672.67 6594.05 695865.34 -49614.65698 49614.66
718,000.00 718000 722633.36 4277.37 727266.73 9266.7251587 9266.73
748,560.00 748560 737735.37 9689.69 726910.73 -21649.26506 21649.27
718,280.00 718280 732852.53 2403.42 747425.06 29145.056095 29145.06
708,720.00 708720 721987.98 -4230.56 735255.95 26535.952649 26535.95
666,776.00 666776 692266.71 -16975.92 717757.41 50981.412764 50981.41
700,079.00 700079 687684.89 -10778.86 675290.79 -24788.21037 24788.21
790,646.00 790646 733776.02 17656.13 676906.03 -113739.9693 113739.97
654,346.00 654346 702889.07 -6615.41 751432.14 97086.143505 97086.14
734,778.00 734778 715525.83 3010.68 696273.66 -38504.33595 38504.34
687,656.00 687656 703096.25 -4709.45 718536.51 30880.508314 30880.51
635,678.00 635678 667032.40 -20386.65 698386.80 62708.803366 62708.80
654,788.00 654788 650716.88 -18351.09 646645.75 -8142.24995 8142.25
690,807.00 690807 661586.39 -3740.79 632365.79 -58441.21412 58441.21
656,556.00 656556 657200.80 -4063.19 657845.61 1289.6073249 1289.61
676,655.00 676655 664896.31 1816.16 653137.62 -23517.38378 23517.38
738,900.00 738900 666712.47 -72187.53339 72187.53
total 846959.16
mad 36824.3111246
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


735,020.00 735020 735020 0.00 735020 0 0
743,360.00 743360 739190.00 2085.00 735020 -8340 8340
688,560.00 688560 714917.50 -11093.75 741275 52715 52715
705,380.00 705380 704601.88 -10704.69 703823.75 -1556.25 1556.25
734,000.00 734000 713948.59 -678.98 693897.19 -40102.8125 40102.81
690,560.00 690560 701914.80 -6356.39 713269.61 22709.609375 22709.61
700,900.00 700900 698229.21 -5020.99 695558.42 -5341.582031 5341.58
745,480.00 745480 719344.11 8046.95 693208.22 -52271.78223 52271.78
718,000.00 718000 722695.53 5699.19 727391.06 9391.0632324 9391.06
748,560.00 748560 738477.36 10740.51 728394.72 -20165.27985 20165.28
718,280.00 718280 733748.93 3006.04 749217.87 30937.868576 30937.87
708,720.00 708720 722737.49 -4002.70 736754.98 28034.975643 28034.98
666,776.00 666776 692755.39 -16992.40 718734.79 51958.785266 51958.79
700,079.00 700079 687921.00 -10913.40 675762.99 -24316.00624 24316.01
790,646.00 790646 733826.80 17496.20 677007.60 -113638.4004 113638.40
654,346.00 654346 702834.50 -6748.05 751323.00 96977.00258 96977.00
734,778.00 734778 715432.23 2924.84 696086.45 -38691.54656 38691.55
687,656.00 687656 703006.53 -4750.43 718357.07 30701.065511 30701.07
635,678.00 635678 666967.05 -20394.95 698256.11 62578.105168 62578.11
654,788.00 654788 650680.05 -18340.98 646572.10 -8215.901295 8215.90
690,807.00 690807 661573.04 -3724.00 632339.07 -58467.9292 58467.93
656,556.00 656556 657202.52 -4047.26 657849.04 1293.0391438 1293.04
676,655.00 676655 664905.13 1827.68 653155.26 -23499.73647 23499.74
738,900.00 738900 702816.40 19869.48 666732.81 -72167.19016 72167.19
722685.88
total 854070.93
mad 37133.5187589
mape
alpha 0.6
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480 0
0.0225858 feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 697117.60 -5617.44
0.0212865 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 702532.86 1002.18
0.0221386 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 693614.02 -4950.43
0.0114798 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 694685.43 -1337.32
0.0378206 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 709339.24 8257.36
0.0749487 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 748378.64 26726.58
0.0275575 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 778582.09 28812.70
0.32447 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 683017.92 -45813.42
0.0514487 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 639181.80 -44627.04
0.0798881 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 645207.50 -14235.39
0.0823581 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 666388.84 7014.65
0.1059955 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 710373.40 29196.59
0.0434412 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 741843.99 30561.00
0.0896492 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 722098.00 376.80
0.0307455 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 712217.92 -5777.33
0.0211926 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 722976.24 4144.06
0.0604903 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705184.12 -9017.65
0.0088642 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 699006.59 -7313.58
0.0635295 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723965.20 12049.74
0.0135844 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 725205.98 5564.36
0.0296142 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 741444.13 11968.64
0.0393345 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732333.11 -679.16
0.036235 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717893.58 -8935.38
0.0604955 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
1.2986584 total
mad
5.646% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 690876 0
0.0267817 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 702283.20 6844.32
0.0263974 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 695851.01 -1121.59
0.0034539 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 697111.77 307.82
0.0301168 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 710967.84 8436.77
0.0695779 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 749101.84 26255.11
0.0244987 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 778682.78 28250.61
0.3260047 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 682833.36 -46209.41
0.0513814 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 638949.58 -44814.03
0.0806456 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 645039.82 -14271.47
0.0832587 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 666307.34 7051.93
0.1067024 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 710355.71 29249.79
0.0438969 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 741858.20 30601.41
0.0894115 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 722119.84 397.55
0.0306956 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 712234.96 -5771.91
0.021141 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 722985.22 4141.39
0.0605843 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705186.64 -9022.59
0.0089529 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 699005.62 -7317.65
0.0634687 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723963.19 12047.48
0.01362 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 725204.27 5563.64
0.0296019 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 741443.16 11968.79
0.0393328 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732332.78 -678.71
0.0362264 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717893.63 -8934.98
0.0755141 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 683649.06 -24120.73
0.0359181 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
1.3412652 total
mad
5.832% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 709888 0
0.0333159 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 696155.20 -8239.68
0.0085559 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 694386.21 -4357.27
0.0396063 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 708011.58 6432.31
0.0783673 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 747117.56 26036.51
0.0309419 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 777801.63 28825.05
0.3211551 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 682710.67 -45524.56
0.0496295 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 639174.45 -44331.56
0.0805683 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 645322.76 -14043.64
0.0823504 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 666511.65 7095.88
0.1056723 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 710455.01 29204.37
0.0430453 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 741879.75 30536.59
0.0900109 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 722102.54 348.31
0.0309783 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 712208.34 -5797.20
0.0210826 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 722964.46 4134.79
0.0605175 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705175.70 -9019.34
0.0088401 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 699002.54 -7311.63
0.0635704 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723964.37 12052.44
0.0135431 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 725206.72 5566.39
0.0296434 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 741445.25 11969.67
0.0393171 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732333.97 -678.90
0.0362284 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717894.03 -8935.52
0.0755252 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 683649.00 -24121.22
0.0359058 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 683858.51 -9522.78
0.1440143 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
1.378371 total
mad
5.993% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 687000 0
0.0167454 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 694020.00 4212.00
0.0336458 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 711292.80 12048.48
0.0676697 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 750676.51 28449.62
0.0205232 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780190.45 29088.21
0.3312488 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 683771.47 -46216.11
0.0550996 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 639322.14 -45156.04
0.0785787 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 645052.04 -14624.47
0.082442 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 666171.03 6821.60
0.1066987 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 710209.05 29151.45
0.0442715 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 741760.20 30591.27
0.0889041 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 722076.59 426.34
0.0302739 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 712229.17 -5737.91
0.0214096 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 722996.50 4165.23
0.0604428 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705200.69 -9011.39
0.0089193 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 699015.72 -7315.54
0.0634427 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723968.07 12045.19
0.0136701 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 725205.31 5560.42
0.0295546 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 741442.29 11966.36
0.0393692 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732331.46 -679.96
0.0362476 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717892.60 -8935.30
0.0755226 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 683648.52 -24120.57
0.0359186 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 683858.58 -9522.19
0.1440274 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 744122.16 32349.27
0.1483873 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
1.4846261 total
mad
6.455% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 698700 0
0.0295833 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 711480.00 7668.00
0.0705228 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 748999.20 25578.72
0.0259076 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 778371.17 27854.67
0.3243183 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 682550.33 -46350.63
0.0502653 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 638779.88 -44802.53
0.0812165 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 644976.54 -14203.01
0.0834428 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 666309.41 7118.52
0.1066548 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 710383.17 29291.66
0.0437527 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 741885.93 30618.32
0.0895808 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 722137.70 398.39
0.0308262 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 712242.44 -5777.80
0.0210636 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 722985.85 4134.93
0.0606205 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705184.31 -9026.95
0.008957 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 699002.94 -7319.60
0.0634807 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723961.34 12047.19
0.0136024 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 725203.41 5564.12
0.0296169 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 741443.01 11969.41
0.039322 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732332.97 -678.26
0.0362206 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717893.88 -8934.76
0.0755122 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 683649.25 -24120.68
0.0359173 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 683858.83 -9522.53
0.1440216 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 744122.12 32348.97
0.1483953 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703196.03 -11616.07
0.0522874 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
1.6128011 total
mad
7.012% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 720000 0
0.0635973 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 749340.00 17604.00
0.0310219 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 775317.60 22628.16
0.3115627 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 679238.30 -48596.31
0.0384441 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 636556.80 -45047.43
0.0895187 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 643989.35 -13559.44
0.0881682 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 666171.96 7885.79
0.1083651 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 710635.10 29832.20
0.0436735 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 742202.92 30873.57
0.0906004 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 722366.60 447.63
0.0320287 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 712353.69 -5828.69
0.0200973 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723010.00 4062.31
0.0612901 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705164.92 -9082.12
0.0092757 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698973.12 -7347.93
0.0634163 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723938.08 12039.80
0.0135305 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 725191.15 5567.77
0.0297353 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 741439.57 11976.16
0.0392038 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732334.29 -672.70
0.0361333 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717896.63 -8931.67
0.0754599 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 683651.58 -24119.70
0.0359354 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 683860.15 -9522.74
0.1440195 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 744122.57 32348.35
0.1484081 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703195.97 -11616.62
0.0522743 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 717498.54 3934.90
0.0450609 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
1.6257601 total
mad
7.069% mape
error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 768900 0
0.0153669 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 776100.00 4320.00
0.296284 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 672228.00 -60595.20
0.011007 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 628953.12 -50203.01
0.1151197 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 638885.64 -14121.69
0.1069237 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 663905.58 9363.29
0.1185491 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 710319.55 31593.69
0.0475561 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 742781.30 32114.53
0.0907966 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 723094.33 1033.63
0.0343138 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 712879.18 -5715.64
0.0174443 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723265.42 3945.49
0.0636479 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705220.36 -9248.84
0.0107903 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698928.61 -7474.59
0.0627283 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723869.61 11974.76
0.0136841 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 725137.75 5550.79
0.0298936 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 741411.42 11984.52
0.0389207 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732326.37 -657.22
0.0358583 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717899.66 -8918.91
0.075247 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 683657.90 -24112.62
0.0360497 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 683865.51 -9520.48
0.1440562 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 744125.61 32347.87
0.1484138 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703196.99 -11618.02
0.0522482 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 717498.39 3933.63
0.0450931 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 701166.41 -8225.74
0.0988111 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
1.6099923 total
mad
7.000% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780900 0
0.3012831 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 672420.00 -65088.00
0.0074941 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 627232.80 -53147.52
0.1214712 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 637019.71 -15386.86
0.1131058 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 662653.14 9225.31
0.1228698 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 709763.38 31956.27
0.0500272 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 742703.86 32546.80
0.089768 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 723236.26 1338.16
0.0343608 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 713057.77 -5571.83
0.0169054 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723394.37 3973.23
0.0643399 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705283.04 -9277.51
0.0113604 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698942.21 -7515.50
0.0623788 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723858.69 11943.68
0.0138594 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 725120.95 5534.83
0.0298575 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 741398.31 11980.35
0.0388802 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732319.46 -655.17
0.0357879 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717897.72 -8915.11
0.0751753 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 683658.64 -24109.49
0.0360994 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 683867.06 -9518.75
0.144081 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 744126.93 32348.42
0.1484029 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703197.74 -11618.14
0.0522469 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 717498.64 3933.28
0.0450999 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 701166.37 -8226.05
0.0988196 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 658582.93 -28840.48
0.0123288 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
1.7136745 total
mad
7.451% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 600100 0
0.0630757 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 624340.00 14544.00
0.071543 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 662939.20 28977.12
0.0189391 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690766.53 28287.24
0.0354317 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 728633.51 34035.09
0.0143406 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 751083.44 27083.99
0.1299623 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 724402.97 -5174.68
0.0494888 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 710919.32 -10160.07
0.0175857 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 720703.70 1806.60
0.0557097 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 703340.12 -9695.51
0.001088 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697997.85 -7083.57
0.0704542 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723653.71 12560.09
0.0083927 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 725285.52 6003.12
0.0323908 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 741651.46 12220.81
0.0383123 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732516.91 -592.41
0.0364064 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 718001.80 -8946.03
0.0763029 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 683687.91 -24166.75
0.0350701 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 683855.87 -9565.92
0.1434172 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 744103.58 32322.26
0.1488549 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703177.93 -11626.48
0.0521009 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 717487.38 3935.07
0.0450799 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 701162.58 -8220.85
0.0987081 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 658583.49 -28835.79
0.0124536 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644771.88 -19821.28
0.0846479 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
1.2551086 total
mad
5.457% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 640500 0
0.0566677 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 663585.60 13851.36
0.0299174 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 684974.78 18374.05
0.0551846 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 722351.54 29775.67
0.0049783 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 746866.88 26619.48
0.1144345 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 722530.54 -3954.01
0.0407215 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 710658.61 -8704.76
0.0208343 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 721181.54 2831.85
0.0558713 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 703941.36 -9211.37
0.002988 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698431.99 -6990.16
0.0682961 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723864.73 12463.58
0.0102662 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 725331.32 5865.39
0.0312191 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 741614.68 12116.17
0.0389022 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732460.34 -646.14
0.036535 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717957.68 -8960.05
0.076156 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 683664.65 -24159.84
0.03531 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 683849.33 -9553.13
0.1436208 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 744106.08 32332.80
0.1486757 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703183.15 -11620.64
0.0521909 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 717491.81 3936.94
0.045045 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 701165.10 -8221.25
0.098713 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 658584.34 -28836.95
0.0124294 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644771.75 -19822.33
0.0846215 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 664463.97 3886.40
0.0019311 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
1.2635785 total
mad
5.494% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 678976 0
0.0159768 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 685590.40 3968.64
0.0649996 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 716835.62 20334.59
0.0235794 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 740884.08 22562.91
0.0945713 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 718514.80 -4396.40
0.0262858 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 708875.36 -7542.23
0.0288585 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 720933.25 4217.85
0.0525828 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 704396.44 -8234.95
0.0031396 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 699004.60 -6529.09
0.0665948 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 724278.20 12552.53
0.0124002 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 725532.29 5773.47
0.0295077 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 741658.30 11984.99
0.0400651 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732425.32 -745.79
0.0371044 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717903.81 -9011.22
0.0762862 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 683622.63 -24173.19
0.0354433 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 683827.18 -9546.55
0.1438232 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 744099.85 32344.98
0.1484413 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703185.53 -11610.60
0.0523429 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 717496.77 3942.51
0.0449535 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 701169.31 -8219.47
0.0986771 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 658586.73 -28837.34
0.012425 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644772.56 -19823.44
0.0845997 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 664463.85 3885.40
0.0019576 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 661273.30 -360.17
0.0347627 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
1.1946157 total
mad
5.194% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690000 0
0.06125 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 717012.00 16207.20
0.02636 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 739303.68 19857.89
0.0888176 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 716800.63 -5558.68
0.0207304 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 707724.78 -7668.98
0.0328333 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 720422.32 4550.93
0.0501391 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 704325.30 -7837.84
0.0022113 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 699134.99 -6249.33
0.066554 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 724442.26 12684.64
0.0129063 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 725650.76 5798.95
0.0289212 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 741715.89 11958.66
0.0405762 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732437.82 -783.38
0.0374421 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717893.78 -9039.78
0.0764596 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 683607.20 -24187.86
0.0354077 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 683815.14 -9550.38
0.143857 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 744093.50 32346.87
0.1483713 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703183.75 -11607.11
0.0524027 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 717497.46 3945.38
0.0449069 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 701170.74 -8217.88
0.0986487 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 658587.94 -28836.83
0.0124349 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644773.25 -19823.55
0.0845985 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 664464.08 3885.08
0.0019642 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 661273.26 -360.46
0.0347554 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 670358.12 5306.73
0.0976959 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
1.2025484 total
mad
5.228% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 735020 0
0.0112193 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 740024.00 3002.40
0.0765583 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 710346.56 -16605.50
0.0022063 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700724.42 -12415.48
0.054636 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 715723.58 4033.30
0.0328858 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 702238.75 -6477.58
0.007621 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698844.47 -4627.60
0.0701183 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 724974.75 13827.13
0.0130795 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 726320.75 6338.45
0.0269388 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 742199.68 12062.74
0.0430722 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732672.97 -890.93
0.0395572 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717944.81 -9193.27
0.0779254 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 683566.22 -24304.46
0.0347332 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 683752.10 -9610.26
0.1437285 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 744044.34 32331.24
0.1482045 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703157.83 -11599.41
0.0526575 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 717490.17 3959.64
0.044646 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 701173.52 -8206.13
0.0984431 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 658593.76 -28830.31
0.0125474 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644778.18 -19821.47
0.0846371 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 664466.88 3884.63
0.0019694 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 661274.21 -361.75
0.0347293 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 670357.98 5305.56
0.0976684 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 713605.42 28070.69
jan 2019
1.2097824 total
mad
5.260% mape
alpha 0.7
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
706480 0 0 jan 2016 706,480.00
706480 -15604 15604 0.0225858 feb 2016 690,876.00
691500.16 18387.84 18387.84 0.0259025 mar 2016 709,888.00
703535.05 -16535.046 16535.05 0.0240685 apr 2016 687,000.00
688663.58 10036.4157 10036.42 0.0143644 mei 2016 698,700.00
693348.11 26651.8909 26651.89 0.0370165 jun 2016 720,000.00
717596.60 51303.4003 51303.40 0.0667231 jul 2016 768,900.00
775105.22 5794.77991 5794.78 0.0074206 ags 2016 780,900.00
807394.79 -207294.79 207294.79 0.3454337 sep 2016 600,100.00
637204.49 3295.50747 3295.51 0.0051452 okt 2016 640,500.00
594554.76 84421.2434 84421.24 0.1243361 nov 2016 678,976.00
630972.11 59027.8901 59027.89 0.0855477 des 2016 690,000.00
673403.49 61616.5084 61616.51 0.0838297 jan 2017 735,020.00
739569.99 3790.01266 3790.01 0.0050985 feb 2017 743,360.00
772404.99 -83844.99 83844.99 0.1217686 mar 2017 688,560.00
722474.79 -17094.795 17094.79 0.0242349 apr 2017 705,380.00
706440.59 27559.4094 27559.41 0.0375469 mei 2017 734,000.00
727120.30 -36560.296 36560.30 0.052943 jun 2017 690,560.00
696166.47 4733.52812 4733.53 0.0067535 jul 2017 700,900.00
691693.01 53786.9878 53786.99 0.0721508 ags 2017 745,480.00
736014.94 -18014.944 18014.94 0.0250905 sep 2017 718,000.00
730770.34 17789.6632 17789.66 0.0237652 okt 2017 748,560.00
753412.77 -35132.773 35132.77 0.0489124 nov 2017 718,280.00
731653.95 -22933.949 22933.95 0.0323597 des 2017 708,720.00
696166.47 -29390.472 29390.47 0.0440785 jan 2018 666,776.00
881210.66 1.2929977 total
38313.50694 mad
5.622% mape

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
690876 0 0 feb 2016 690,876.00
690876 19012 19012 0.0267817 mar 2016 709,888.00
709127.52 -22127.52 22127.52 0.0322089 apr 2016 687,000.00
694729.42 3970.5792 3970.58 0.0056828 mei 2016 698,700.00
697419.59 22580.4104 22580.41 0.0313617 jun 2016 720,000.00
719404.60 49495.3951 49495.40 0.0643717 jul 2016 768,900.00
775356.95 5543.04676 5543.05 0.0070983 ags 2016 780,900.00
806933.39 -206833.39 206833.39 0.3446649 sep 2016 600,100.00
636623.94 3876.05631 3876.06 0.0060516 okt 2016 640,500.00
594135.55 84840.4543 84840.45 0.1249535 nov 2016 678,976.00
630768.35 59231.65 59231.65 0.085843 des 2016 690,000.00
673359.27 61660.7342 61660.73 0.0838899 jan 2017 735,020.00
739605.50 3754.50362 3754.50 0.0050507 feb 2017 743,360.00
772459.61 -83899.61 83899.61 0.1218479 mar 2017 688,560.00
722517.40 -17137.396 17137.40 0.0242953 apr 2017 705,380.00
706463.05 27536.9524 27536.95 0.0375163 mei 2017 734,000.00
727126.61 -36566.611 36566.61 0.0529521 jun 2017 690,560.00
696164.06 4735.94337 4735.94 0.0067569 jul 2017 700,900.00
691687.97 53792.0256 53792.03 0.0721576 ags 2017 745,480.00
736010.67 -18010.671 18010.67 0.0250845 sep 2017 718,000.00
730767.91 17792.0922 17792.09 0.0237684 okt 2017 748,560.00
753411.96 -35131.956 35131.96 0.0489112 nov 2017 718,280.00
731654.07 -22934.071 22934.07 0.0323598 des 2017 708,720.00
708958.65 -42182.651 42182.65 0.0632636 jan 2018 666,776.00
659528.33 40550.6709 40550.67 0.057923 feb 2018 700,079.00
902645.72 1.3268724 total
39245.466031 mad
5.769% mape

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
709888 0 0 mar 2016 709,888.00
709888 -22888 22888 0.0333159 apr 2016 687,000.00
687915.52 10784.48 10784.48 0.0154351 mei 2016 698,700.00
690028.94 29971.0592 29971.06 0.0416265 jun 2016 720,000.00
714443.89 54456.1096 54456.11 0.0708234 jul 2016 768,900.00
773154.07 7745.93027 7745.93 0.0099192 ags 2016 780,900.00
806626.68 -206526.68 206526.68 0.3441538 sep 2016 600,100.00
637186.12 3313.88449 3313.88 0.0051739 okt 2016 640,500.00
594842.89 84133.1104 84133.11 0.1239118 nov 2016 678,976.00
631279.12 58720.881 58720.88 0.0851027 des 2016 690,000.00
673607.53 61412.4721 61412.47 0.0835521 jan 2017 735,020.00
739659.38 3700.61858 3700.62 0.0049782 feb 2017 743,360.00
772416.35 -83856.346 83856.35 0.1217851 mar 2017 688,560.00
722450.85 -17070.847 17070.85 0.0242009 apr 2017 705,380.00
706411.14 27588.8576 27588.86 0.037587 mei 2017 734,000.00
727099.25 -36539.249 36539.25 0.0529125 jun 2017 690,560.00
696156.36 4743.63757 4743.64 0.0067679 jul 2017 700,900.00
691690.92 53789.0828 53789.08 0.0721536 ags 2017 745,480.00
736016.81 -18016.809 18016.81 0.025093 sep 2017 718,000.00
730773.11 17786.8856 17786.89 0.0237615 okt 2017 748,560.00
753414.92 -35134.915 35134.92 0.0489153 nov 2017 718,280.00
731655.07 -22935.066 22935.07 0.0323613 des 2017 708,720.00
708958.50 -42182.503 42182.50 0.0632634 jan 2018 666,776.00
659527.78 40551.2236 40551.22 0.0579238 feb 2018 700,079.00
674335.73 116310.274 116310.27 0.1471079 mar 2018 790,646.00
943848.64 1.3847179 total
41036.897576 mad
6.021% mape

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
687000 0 0 apr 2016 687,000.00
687000 11700 11700 0.0167454 mei 2016 698,700.00
698232.00 21768 21768 0.0302333 jun 2016 720,000.00
723341.28 45558.72 45558.72 0.0592518 jul 2016 768,900.00
779126.13 1773.8688 1773.87 0.0022716 ags 2016 780,900.00
809278.66 -209178.66 209178.66 0.348573 sep 2016 600,100.00
637555.36 2944.64145 2944.64 0.0045974 okt 2016 640,500.00
594166.11 84809.8929 84809.89 0.1249085 nov 2016 678,976.00
630427.57 59572.432 59572.43 0.0863369 des 2016 690,000.00
672992.63 62027.3721 62027.37 0.0843887 jan 2017 735,020.00
739360.51 3999.49423 3999.49 0.0053803 feb 2017 743,360.00
772351.47 -83791.475 83791.47 0.1216909 mar 2017 688,560.00
722502.93 -17122.932 17122.93 0.0242748 apr 2017 705,380.00
706491.26 27508.7411 27508.74 0.0374778 mei 2017 734,000.00
727161.74 -36601.737 36601.74 0.053003 jun 2017 690,560.00
696189.30 4710.69748 4710.70 0.0067209 jul 2017 700,900.00
691700.18 53779.82 53779.82 0.0721412 ags 2017 745,480.00
736013.27 -18013.266 18013.27 0.0250881 sep 2017 718,000.00
730765.72 17794.2752 17794.28 0.0237713 okt 2017 748,560.00
753408.65 -35128.647 35128.65 0.0489066 nov 2017 718,280.00
731651.50 -22931.503 22931.50 0.0323562 des 2017 708,720.00
708957.30 -42181.305 42181.30 0.0632616 jan 2018 666,776.00
659527.96 40551.0446 40551.04 0.0579235 feb 2018 700,079.00
674336.39 116309.608 116309.61 0.1471071 mar 2018 790,646.00
776471.43 -122125.43 122125.43 0.1866374 apr 2018 654,346.00
1019758.14 1.47641 total
44337.310306 mad
6.419% mape

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
698700 0 0 mei 2016 698,700.00
698700 21300 21300 0.0295833 jun 2016 720,000.00
719148.00 49752 49752 0.0647054 jul 2016 768,900.00
774577.92 6322.08 6322.08 0.0080959 ags 2016 780,900.00
806225.84 -206125.84 206125.84 0.3434858 sep 2016 600,100.00
636199.70 4300.29773 4300.30 0.006714 okt 2016 640,500.00
593977.36 84998.6444 84998.64 0.1251865 nov 2016 678,976.00
630773.53 59226.471 59226.47 0.0858355 des 2016 690,000.00
673427.93 61592.0721 61592.07 0.0837965 jan 2017 735,020.00
739674.83 3685.16661 3685.17 0.0049574 feb 2017 743,360.00
772504.26 -83944.256 83944.26 0.1219128 mar 2017 688,560.00
722536.09 -17156.092 17156.09 0.0243218 apr 2017 705,380.00
706464.63 27535.3661 27535.37 0.0375141 mei 2017 734,000.00
727120.78 -36560.782 36560.78 0.0529437 jun 2017 690,560.00
696157.36 4742.63998 4742.64 0.0067665 jul 2017 700,900.00
691683.34 53796.6585 53796.66 0.0721638 ags 2017 745,480.00
736008.53 -18008.531 18008.53 0.0250815 sep 2017 718,000.00
730767.54 17792.4642 17792.46 0.0237689 okt 2017 748,560.00
753412.42 -35132.425 35132.42 0.0489119 nov 2017 718,280.00
731654.71 -22934.707 22934.71 0.0323607 des 2017 708,720.00
708959.13 -42183.126 42183.13 0.0632643 jan 2018 666,776.00
659528.57 40550.4321 40550.43 0.0579227 feb 2018 700,079.00
674336.30 116309.7 116309.70 0.1471072 mar 2018 790,646.00
776471.09 -122125.09 122125.09 0.1866369 apr 2018 654,346.00
691579.97 43198.0316 43198.03 0.0587906 may 2018 734,778.00
1136074.83 1.653037 total
49394.557997 mad
7.187% mape

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
720000 0 0 jun 2016 720,000.00
720000 48900 48900 0.0635973 jul 2016 768,900.00
766944.00 13956 13956 0.0178717 ags 2016 780,900.00
797945.76 -197845.76 197845.76 0.329688 sep 2016 600,100.00
630641.99 9858.0096 9858.01 0.0153911 okt 2016 640,500.00
591509.37 87466.634 87466.63 0.1288214 nov 2016 678,976.00
630429.90 59570.0955 59570.10 0.0863335 des 2016 690,000.00
674057.75 60962.2457 60962.25 0.0829396 jan 2017 735,020.00
740467.30 2892.69736 2892.70 0.0038914 feb 2017 743,360.00
773076.49 -84516.493 84516.49 0.1227438 mar 2017 688,560.00
722814.23 -17434.232 17434.23 0.0247161 apr 2017 705,380.00
706525.00 27474.9962 27475.00 0.0374319 mei 2017 734,000.00
727072.31 -36512.311 36512.31 0.0528735 jun 2017 690,560.00
696082.80 4817.19783 4817.20 0.0068729 jul 2017 700,900.00
691625.19 53854.8102 53854.81 0.0722418 ags 2017 745,480.00
735977.88 -17977.876 17977.88 0.0250388 sep 2017 718,000.00
730758.92 17801.0844 17801.08 0.0237804 okt 2017 748,560.00
753415.72 -35135.722 35135.72 0.0489165 nov 2017 718,280.00
731661.58 -22941.584 22941.58 0.0323704 des 2017 708,720.00
708964.96 -42188.959 42188.96 0.0632731 jan 2018 666,776.00
659531.88 40547.1164 40547.12 0.0579179 feb 2018 700,079.00
674337.42 116308.585 116308.58 0.1471058 mar 2018 790,646.00
776470.92 -122124.92 122124.92 0.1866366 apr 2018 654,346.00
691579.35 43198.6509 43198.65 0.0587914 may 2018 734,778.00
721433.44 -33777.436 33777.44 0.0491197 jun 2018 687,656.00
1164285.98 1.6892449 total
50621.129506 mad
7.345% mape
nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
768900 0 0 jul 2016 768,900.00
768900 -12000 12000 0.0153669 ags 2016 780,900.00
780420.00 180320 180320 0.3004833 sep 2016 600,100.00
611632.80 -28867.2 28867.20 0.0450698 okt 2016 640,500.00
578750.11 -100225.89 100225.89 0.1476133 nov 2016 678,976.00
624763.96 -65236.044 65236.04 0.094545 des 2016 690,000.00
673268.87 -61751.13 61751.13 0.0840129 jan 2017 735,020.00
741913.24 -1446.7579 1446.76 0.0019462 feb 2017 743,360.00
774895.82 86335.8239 86335.82 0.1253861 mar 2017 688,560.00
724127.96 18747.96 18747.96 0.0265785 apr 2017 705,380.00
707163.55 -26836.451 26836.45 0.0365619 mei 2017 734,000.00
727210.91 36650.9068 36650.91 0.0530742 jun 2017 690,560.00
695971.52 -4928.4765 4928.48 0.0070316 jul 2017 700,900.00
691454.02 -54025.978 54025.98 0.0724714 ags 2017 745,480.00
735844.37 17844.3732 17844.37 0.0248529 sep 2017 718,000.00
730688.54 -17871.461 17871.46 0.0238745 okt 2017 748,560.00
753395.93 35115.9317 35115.93 0.0488889 nov 2017 718,280.00
731669.15 22949.1532 22949.15 0.0323811 des 2017 708,720.00
708980.75 42204.7467 42204.75 0.0632967 jan 2018 666,776.00
659545.28 -40533.725 40533.72 0.0578988 feb 2018 700,079.00
674345.03 -116300.97 116300.97 0.1470961 mar 2018 790,646.00
776473.48 122127.479 122127.48 0.1866405 apr 2018 654,346.00
691578.97 -43199.033 43199.03 0.058792 may 2018 734,778.00
721432.01 33776.0139 33776.01 0.0491176 jun 2018 687,656.00
692940.67 57262.6678 57262.67 0.0900812 jul 2018 635,678.00
1169295.50 1.7029802 total
50838.934971 mad
7.404% mape

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
780900 0 0 ags 2016 780,900.00
780900 180800 180800 0.3012831 sep 2016 600,100.00
607332.00 -33168 33168 0.0517845 okt 2016 640,500.00
574085.28 -104890.72 104890.72 0.1544837 nov 2016 678,976.00
621632.85 -68367.149 68367.15 0.0990828 des 2016 690,000.00
671878.45 -63141.547 63141.55 0.0859045 jan 2017 735,020.00
741719.65 -1640.3491 1640.35 0.0022067 feb 2017 743,360.00
775250.66 86690.6556 86690.66 0.1259014 mar 2017 688,560.00
724574.42 19194.4215 19194.42 0.0272115 apr 2017 705,380.00
707485.94 -26514.064 26514.06 0.0361227 mei 2017 734,000.00
727367.60 36807.605 36807.60 0.0533011 jun 2017 690,560.00
696005.53 -4894.4653 4894.47 0.0069831 jul 2017 700,900.00
691426.71 -54053.286 54053.29 0.072508 ags 2017 745,480.00
735802.37 17802.3688 17802.37 0.0247944 sep 2017 718,000.00
730655.78 -17904.222 17904.22 0.0239182 okt 2017 748,560.00
753378.66 35098.6615 35098.66 0.0488649 nov 2017 718,280.00
731664.30 22944.2968 22944.30 0.0323743 des 2017 708,720.00
708982.60 42206.6041 42206.60 0.0632995 jan 2018 666,776.00
659549.15 -40529.85 40529.85 0.0578933 feb 2018 700,079.00
674348.31 -116297.69 116297.69 0.147092 mar 2018 790,646.00
776475.35 122129.347 122129.35 0.1866434 apr 2018 654,346.00
691579.59 -43198.405 43198.41 0.0587911 may 2018 734,778.00
721431.92 33775.9201 33775.92 0.0491175 jun 2018 687,656.00
692940.32 57262.3189 57262.32 0.0900807 jul 2018 635,678.00
629742.44 -25045.556 25045.56 0.0382499 aug 2018 654,788.00
1229311.94 1.7996423 total
53448.345321 mad
7.825% mape

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
600100 0 0 sep 2016 600,100.00
600100 -40400 40400 0.0630757 okt 2016 640,500.00
638884.00 -40092 40092 0.0590477 nov 2016 678,976.00
691916.32 1916.32 1916.32 0.0027773 des 2016 690,000.00
719053.77 -15966.227 15966.23 0.0217222 jan 2017 735,020.00
762668.60 19308.5957 19308.60 0.0259748 feb 2017 743,360.00
778167.43 89607.4304 89607.43 0.1301374 mar 2017 688,560.00
719228.29 13848.2894 13848.29 0.0196324 apr 2017 705,380.00
700759.25 -33240.751 33240.75 0.0452871 mei 2017 734,000.00
722510.30 31950.303 31950.30 0.0462672 jun 2017 690,560.00
693644.62 -7255.3844 7255.38 0.0103515 jul 2017 700,900.00
690914.28 -54565.721 54565.72 0.0731954 ags 2017 745,480.00
736213.80 18213.8039 18213.80 0.0253674 sep 2017 718,000.00
731288.64 -17271.356 17271.36 0.0230728 okt 2017 748,560.00
753872.27 35592.2687 35592.27 0.0495521 nov 2017 718,280.00
731924.50 23204.5016 23204.50 0.0327414 des 2017 708,720.00
709055.77 42279.7742 42279.77 0.0634093 jan 2018 666,776.00
659521.16 -40557.835 40557.84 0.0579332 feb 2018 700,079.00
674289.94 -116356.06 116356.06 0.1471658 mar 2018 790,646.00
776425.83 122079.833 122079.83 0.1865677 apr 2018 654,346.00
691551.45 -43226.55 43226.55 0.0588294 may 2018 734,778.00
721422.45 33766.4547 33766.45 0.0491037 jun 2018 687,656.00
692941.73 57263.7329 57263.73 0.0900829 jul 2018 635,678.00
629747.70 -25040.3 25040.30 0.0382418 aug 2018 654,788.00
624950.60 -65856.405 65856.40 0.0953326 sep 2018 690,807.00
923003.49 1.3195364 total
40130.58656 mad
5.737% mape

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
640500 0 0 okt 2016 640,500.00
640500 -38476 38476 0.0566677 nov 2016 678,976.00
677436.96 -12563.04 12563.04 0.0182073 des 2016 690,000.00
703348.84 -31671.162 31671.16 0.0430888 jan 2017 735,020.00
752127.21 8767.20794 8767.21 0.011794 feb 2017 743,360.00
773486.36 84926.3609 84926.36 0.1233391 mar 2017 688,560.00
718576.53 13196.5322 13196.53 0.0187084 apr 2017 705,380.00
701953.85 -32046.151 32046.15 0.0436596 mei 2017 734,000.00
724013.39 33453.3902 33453.39 0.0484439 jun 2017 690,560.00
694729.99 -6170.0138 6170.01 0.008803 jul 2017 700,900.00
691441.83 -54038.17 54038.17 0.0724878 ags 2017 745,480.00
736328.31 18328.3082 18328.31 0.0255269 sep 2017 718,000.00
731196.71 -17363.291 17363.29 0.0231956 okt 2017 748,560.00
753730.85 35450.8538 35450.85 0.0493552 nov 2017 718,280.00
731814.20 23094.2045 23094.20 0.0325858 des 2017 708,720.00
708997.63 42221.6311 42221.63 0.0633221 jan 2018 666,776.00
659504.81 -40574.185 40574.19 0.0579566 feb 2018 700,079.00
674296.19 -116349.81 116349.81 0.1471579 mar 2018 790,646.00
776438.88 122092.877 122092.88 0.1865876 apr 2018 654,346.00
691562.51 -43215.486 43215.49 0.0588143 may 2018 734,778.00
721428.74 33772.7437 33772.74 0.0491128 jun 2018 687,656.00
692943.85 57265.8479 57265.85 0.0900863 jul 2018 635,678.00
629747.38 -25040.616 25040.62 0.0382423 aug 2018 654,788.00
624949.42 -65857.579 65857.58 0.0953343 sep 2018 690,807.00
668350.36 11794.3636 11794.36 0.017964 oct 2018 656,556.00
955935.46 1.3624773 total
41562.411181 mad
5.924% mape

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
678976 0 0 nov 2016 678,976.00
678976 -11024 11024 0.0159768 des 2016 690,000.00
689559.04 -45460.96 45460.96 0.06185 jan 2017 735,020.00
737170.20 -6189.7984 6189.80 0.0083268 feb 2017 743,360.00
763446.99 74886.9937 74886.99 0.1087588 mar 2017 688,560.00
714118.39 8738.39277 8738.39 0.0123882 apr 2017 705,380.00
701333.13 -32666.869 32666.87 0.0445053 mei 2017 734,000.00
725151.10 34591.0991 34591.10 0.0500914 jun 2017 690,560.00
696161.49 -4738.5093 4738.51 0.0067606 jul 2017 700,900.00
692475.51 -53004.489 53004.49 0.0711012 ags 2017 745,480.00
736830.73 18830.7348 18830.73 0.0262267 sep 2017 718,000.00
731305.76 -17254.24 17254.24 0.0230499 okt 2017 748,560.00
753643.30 35363.2964 35363.30 0.0492333 nov 2017 718,280.00
731679.52 22959.5243 22959.52 0.0323958 des 2017 708,720.00
708892.59 42116.5867 42116.59 0.0631645 jan 2018 666,776.00
659449.44 -40629.56 40629.56 0.0580357 feb 2018 700,079.00
674280.62 -116365.38 116365.38 0.1471776 mar 2018 790,646.00
776444.83 122098.832 122098.83 0.1865967 apr 2018 654,346.00
691574.94 -43203.064 43203.06 0.0587974 may 2018 734,778.00
721439.28 33783.2807 33783.28 0.0491282 jun 2018 687,656.00
692949.84 57271.8375 57271.84 0.0900957 jul 2018 635,678.00
629749.40 -25038.601 25038.60 0.0382392 aug 2018 654,788.00
624949.12 -65857.88 65857.88 0.0953347 sep 2018 690,807.00
668349.24 11793.245 11793.24 0.0179623 oct 2018 656,556.00
660913.13 -15741.873 15741.87 0.0232643 nov 2018 676,655.00
923867.17 1.3151967 total
40168.137862 mad
5.718% mape

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
690000 0 0 des 2016 690,000.00
690000 -45020 45020 0.06125 jan 2017 735,020.00
733219.20 -10140.8 10140.8 0.0136418 feb 2017 743,360.00
759161.57 70601.568 70601.57 0.1025351 mar 2017 688,560.00
711241.95 5861.95072 5861.95 0.0083103 apr 2017 705,380.00
700055.80 -33944.198 33944.20 0.0462455 mei 2017 734,000.00
724973.25 34413.2533 34413.25 0.0498338 jun 2017 690,560.00
696487.46 -4412.5372 4412.54 0.0062955 jul 2017 700,900.00
692885.66 -52594.34 52594.34 0.070551 ags 2017 745,480.00
737126.90 19126.9013 19126.90 0.0266391 sep 2017 718,000.00
731449.71 -17110.287 17110.29 0.0228576 okt 2017 748,560.00
753674.54 35394.5413 35394.54 0.0492768 nov 2017 718,280.00
731654.44 22934.4377 22934.44 0.0323604 des 2017 708,720.00
708854.00 42077.9986 42078.00 0.0631066 jan 2018 666,776.00
659419.34 -40659.656 40659.66 0.0580787 feb 2018 700,079.00
674264.76 -116381.24 116381.24 0.1471977 mar 2018 790,646.00
776440.37 122094.371 122094.37 0.1865899 apr 2018 654,346.00
691576.64 -43201.358 43201.36 0.0587951 may 2018 734,778.00
721442.84 33786.8398 33786.84 0.0491333 jun 2018 687,656.00
692952.86 57274.8565 57274.86 0.0901004 jul 2018 635,678.00
629751.11 -25036.885 25036.89 0.0382366 aug 2018 654,788.00
624949.70 -65857.303 65857.30 0.0953339 sep 2018 690,807.00
668349.16 11793.1588 11793.16 0.0179622 oct 2018 656,556.00
660912.81 -15742.194 15742.19 0.0232647 nov 2018 676,655.00
675664.86 -63235.145 63235.14 0.0855801 dec 2018 738,900.00
925460.68 1.3175962 total
40237.420752 mad
5.729% mape

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )
735020 0 0 jan 2017 735,020.00
735020 -8340 8340 0.0112193 feb 2017 743,360.00
743026.40 54466.4 54466.4 0.0791019 mar 2017 688,560.00
693741.06 -11638.944 11638.94 0.0165002 apr 2017 705,380.00
688308.94 -45691.062 45691.06 0.0622494 mei 2017 734,000.00
719756.87 29196.8734 29196.87 0.04228 jun 2017 690,560.00
695761.17 -5138.827 5138.83 0.0073318 jul 2017 700,900.00
694216.87 -51263.129 51263.13 0.0687653 ags 2017 745,480.00
738801.88 20801.8762 20801.88 0.028972 sep 2017 718,000.00
732659.20 -15900.797 15900.80 0.0212418 okt 2017 748,560.00
754262.42 35982.4207 35982.42 0.0500953 nov 2017 718,280.00
731782.04 23062.0363 23062.04 0.0325404 des 2017 708,720.00
708751.55 41975.5495 41975.55 0.062953 jan 2018 666,776.00
659261.76 -40817.243 40817.24 0.0583038 feb 2018 700,079.00
674141.85 -116504.15 116504.15 0.1473531 mar 2018 790,646.00
776375.58 122029.579 122029.58 0.1864909 apr 2018 654,346.00
691558.42 -43219.577 43219.58 0.0588199 may 2018 734,778.00
721449.81 33793.8082 33793.81 0.0491435 jun 2018 687,656.00
692967.39 57289.3915 57289.39 0.0901233 jul 2018 635,678.00
629763.44 -25024.556 25024.56 0.0382178 aug 2018 654,788.00
624956.70 -65850.295 65850.30 0.0953237 sep 2018 690,807.00
668351.52 11795.5157 11795.52 0.0179657 oct 2018 656,556.00
660912.45 -15742.546 15742.55 0.0232652 nov 2018 676,655.00
675663.55 -63236.454 63236.45 0.0855819 dec 2018 738,900.00
741676.11 jan 2019
938761.03 1.3338392 total
40815.69707 mad
5.799% mape
TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
706480 706480 0 706480 0 0
690876 695557.20 -7645.96 706480 -15604 15604 0.0225858
709888 703294.97 3122.65 687911.24 21976.76 21976.76 0.0309581
687000 692825.29 -6391.98 706417.62 -19417.624 19417.62 0.0282644
698700 695019.99 -381.30 686433.30 12266.6962 12266.70 0.0175565
720000 712391.61 12045.74 694638.69 25361.3113 25361.31 0.035224
768900 755561.20 33832.44 724437.35 44462.6533 44462.65 0.0578263
780900 783448.09 29670.55 789393.64 -8493.6442 8493.64 0.0108767
600100 664005.59 -74708.58 813118.65 -213018.65 213018.65 0.3549719
640500 625139.10 -49619.12 589297.01 51202.9885 51202.99 0.0799422
678976 647939.20 1074.33 575519.98 103456.015 103456.02 0.1523707
690000 677704.06 21157.70 649013.52 40986.4756 40986.48 0.0594007
735020 724172.53 38875.24 698861.76 36158.2407 36158.24 0.0491935
743360 749266.33 29228.23 763047.77 -19687.768 19687.77 0.0264848
688560 715540.37 -14839.70 778494.56 -89934.564 89934.56 0.1306125
705380 703976.20 -12546.83 700700.67 4679.33343 4679.33 0.0066338
734000 721228.81 8312.78 691429.37 42570.6293 42570.63 0.0579981
690560 702254.48 -10788.20 729541.59 -38981.59 38981.59 0.0564492
700900 698069.88 -6165.68 691466.28 9433.72307 9433.72 0.0134594
745480 729407.26 20086.46 691904.21 53575.7928 53575.79 0.0718675
718000 727448.12 4654.54 749493.72 -31493.725 31493.72 0.0438631
748560 743622.80 12718.64 732102.65 16457.3451 16457.35 0.0219853
718280 729698.43 -5931.47 756341.43 -38061.433 38061.43 0.0529897
708720 713234.09 -13304.48 723766.96 -15046.964 15046.96 0.0212312
666776 691466.28 -24690.277 24690.28 0.0370293
total 952327.93 1.4027456
mad 41405.561957
mape 6.099%

TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
690876 690876 0 690876 0 0
709888 704184.40 9315.88 690876 19012 19012 0.0267817
687000 694950.08 -3669.26 713500.28 -26500.28 26500.28 0.0385739
698700 696474.25 -33.86 691280.83 7419.1732 7419.17 0.0106185
720000 712932.12 11510.35 696440.39 23559.6143 23559.61 0.0327217
768900 755562.74 33294.54 724442.46 44457.5356 44457.54 0.0578197
780900 783287.18 29395.47 788857.28 -7957.2804 7957.28 0.0101899
600100 663874.80 -74770.03 812682.66 -212582.66 212582.66 0.3542454
640500 625081.43 -49586.37 589104.77 51395.2313 51395.23 0.0802424
678976 647931.72 1119.29 575495.07 103480.935 103480.93 0.1524074
690000 677715.30 21184.30 649051.01 40948.9877 40948.99 0.0593464
735020 724183.88 38883.29 698899.60 36120.3996 36120.40 0.0491421
743360 749272.15 29226.78 763067.17 -19707.173 19707.17 0.0265109
688560 715541.68 -14843.30 778498.93 -89938.93 89938.93 0.1306189
705380 703975.51 -12549.30 700698.38 4681.61872 4681.62 0.006637
734000 721227.86 8311.85 691426.21 42573.7901 42573.79 0.0580024
690560 702253.91 -10788.21 729539.72 -38979.716 38979.72 0.0564465
700900 698069.71 -6165.40 691465.71 9434.2933 9434.29 0.0134603
745480 729407.29 20086.68 691904.31 53575.6923 53575.69 0.0718674
718000 727448.19 4654.64 749493.98 -31493.977 31493.98 0.0438635
748560 743622.85 12718.65 732102.83 16457.1707 16457.17 0.0219851
718280 729698.45 -5931.48 756341.50 -38061.499 38061.50 0.0529898
708720 713234.09 -13304.50 723766.97 -15046.965 15046.97 0.0212312
666776 676722.08 -29549.76 699929.59 -33153.592 33153.59 0.0497222
700079 647172.32 52906.6799 52906.68 0.0755724
total 966538.51 1.4254241
mad 42023.413508
mape 6.197%

TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
709888 709888 0 709888 0 0
687000 693866.40 -11215.12 709888 -22888 22888 0.0333159
698700 693885.38 -3351.25 682651.28 16048.72 16048.72 0.0229694
720000 711160.24 11087.03 690534.14 29465.8632 29465.86 0.0409248
768900 754904.18 33946.87 722247.27 46652.7332 46652.73 0.0606746
780900 783285.31 30050.85 788851.05 -7951.0451 7951.05 0.0101819
600100 664070.85 -74434.87 813336.17 -213236.17 213236.17 0.3553344
640500 625240.79 -49511.50 589635.98 50864.0187 50864.02 0.079413
678976 648001.99 1079.39 575729.29 103246.705 103246.71 0.1520624
690000 677724.41 21129.51 649081.37 40918.6255 40918.63 0.0593024
735020 724170.18 38850.89 698853.92 36166.0751 36166.08 0.0492042
743360 749258.32 29216.97 763021.07 -19661.067 19661.07 0.0264489
688560 715534.59 -14841.52 778475.29 -89915.287 89915.29 0.1305845
705380 703973.92 -12544.92 700693.06 4686.93786 4686.94 0.0066446
734000 721228.70 8314.87 691428.99 42571.0057 42571.01 0.0579986
690560 702255.07 -10787.08 729543.57 -38983.567 38983.57 0.0564521
700900 698070.40 -6165.39 691467.99 9432.00922 9432.01 0.013457
745480 729407.50 20086.35 691905.00 53574.9975 53575.00 0.0718664
718000 727448.16 4654.37 749493.85 -31493.855 31493.85 0.0438633
748560 743622.76 12718.53 732102.52 16457.4784 16457.48 0.0219855
718280 729698.39 -5931.50 756341.29 -38061.286 38061.29 0.0529895
708720 713234.07 -13304.47 723766.89 -15046.885 15046.89 0.0212311
666776 676722.08 -29549.73 699929.59 -33153.591 33153.59 0.0497222
700079 684207.00 -3625.47 647172.34 52906.6567 52906.66 0.0755724
790646 680581.53 110064.469 110064.47 0.1392083
total 1013382.58 1.4921992
mad 44060.111963
mape 6.488%

TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
687000 687000 0 687000 0 0
698700 695190.00 5733.00 687000 11700 11700 0.0167454
720000 714276.90 15080.73 700923.00 19077 19077 0.0264958
768900 757037.29 34456.49 729357.63 39542.37 39542.37 0.0514272
780900 784078.13 29265.54 791493.78 -10593.78 10593.78 0.0135661
600100 664073.10 -75223.86 813343.67 -213243.67 213243.67 0.3553469
640500 625004.77 -49914.99 588849.24 51650.7589 51650.76 0.0806413
678976 647810.14 989.26 575089.78 103886.217 103886.22 0.1530043
690000 677639.82 21177.56 648799.39 41200.6078 41200.61 0.059711
735020 724159.21 38916.84 698817.37 36202.6273 36202.63 0.0492539
743360 749274.82 29255.98 763076.05 -19716.054 19716.05 0.0265229
688560 715551.24 -14829.71 778530.79 -89970.792 89970.79 0.1306651
705380 703982.46 -12547.06 700721.53 4658.47466 4658.47 0.0066042
734000 721230.62 8309.60 691435.40 42564.6021 42564.60 0.0579899
690560 702254.06 -10790.71 729540.21 -38980.215 38980.21 0.0564473
700900 698069.01 -6166.75 691463.35 9436.64547 9436.65 0.0134636
745480 729406.68 20086.34 691902.25 53577.7472 53577.75 0.0718701
718000 727447.91 4654.76 749493.02 -31493.018 31493.02 0.0438621
748560 743622.80 12718.86 732102.67 16457.3309 16457.33 0.0219853
718280 729698.50 -5931.36 756341.66 -38061.656 38061.66 0.05299
708720 713234.14 -13304.46 723767.14 -15047.141 15047.14 0.0212314
666776 676722.11 -29549.76 699929.69 -33153.687 33153.69 0.0497224
700079 684207.00 -3625.50 647172.34 52906.6556 52906.66 0.0755724
790646 757626.65 50306.10 680581.50 110064.497 110064.50 0.1392083
654346 807932.75 -153586.75 153586.75 0.234718
total 1083185.55 1.5743271
mad 47095.023971
mape 6.845%

TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
698700 698700 0 698700 0 0
720000 713610.00 10437.00 698700 21300 21300 0.0295833
768900 755444.10 32414.97 724047.00 44853 44853 0.058334
780900 782987.72 29005.03 787859.07 -6959.07 6959.07 0.0089116
600100 663667.82 -74822.42 811992.75 -211892.75 211892.75 0.3530957
640500 625003.62 -49511.67 588845.40 51654.5962 51654.60 0.0806473
678976 647930.79 1195.51 575491.95 103484.047 103484.05 0.1524119
690000 677737.89 21223.63 649126.30 40873.6991 40873.70 0.0592372
735020 724202.46 38892.28 698961.52 36058.4822 36058.48 0.0490578
743360 749280.42 29222.26 763094.74 -19734.739 19734.74 0.026548
688560 715542.81 -14849.65 778502.68 -89942.683 89942.68 0.1306243
705380 703973.95 -12553.10 700693.15 4686.84821 4686.85 0.0066444
734000 721226.25 8310.69 691420.85 42579.1521 42579.15 0.0580097
690560 702253.08 -10788.01 729536.94 -38976.941 38976.94 0.0564425
700900 698069.52 -6164.90 691465.07 9434.93193 9434.93 0.0134612
745480 729407.39 20087.04 691904.62 53575.3773 53575.38 0.071867
718000 727448.33 4654.77 749494.42 -31494.424 31494.42 0.0438641
748560 743622.93 12718.65 732103.10 16456.9034 16456.90 0.0219847
718280 729698.47 -5931.52 756341.58 -38061.581 38061.58 0.0529899
708720 713234.09 -13304.53 723766.95 -15046.952 15046.95 0.0212312
666776 676722.07 -29549.77 699929.56 -33153.557 33153.56 0.0497222
700079 684206.99 -3625.49 647172.30 52906.7047 52906.70 0.0755725
790646 757626.65 50306.12 680581.50 110064.498 110064.50 0.1392083
654346 700422.03 -24951.40 807932.77 -153586.77 153586.77 0.234718
734778 675470.63 59307.3684 59307.37 0.0807147
total 1226777.70 1.794167
mad 53338.160947
mape 7.801%

TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
720000 720000 0 720000 0 0
768900 754230.00 23961.00 720000 48900 48900 0.0635973
780900 780087.30 25288.41 778191.00 2709 2709 0.0034691
600100 661682.71 -75296.69 805375.71 -205275.71 205275.71 0.3420692
640500 624265.81 -48780.84 586386.03 54113.9749 54113.97 0.0844871
678976 647928.69 1929.77 575484.97 103491.033 103491.03 0.1524222
690000 677957.54 21599.12 649858.46 40141.544 40141.54 0.0581762
735020 724381.00 38976.16 699556.66 35463.3408 35463.34 0.0482481
743360 749359.15 29177.55 763357.16 -19997.157 19997.16 0.026901
688560 715553.01 -14911.03 778536.70 -89976.7 89976.70 0.1306737
705380 703958.59 -12589.40 700641.98 4738.02053 4738.02 0.006717
734000 721210.76 8299.69 691369.19 42630.8065 42630.81 0.0580801
690560 702245.14 -10786.03 729510.45 -38950.453 38950.45 0.0564042
700900 698067.73 -6159.99 691459.11 9440.8912 9440.89 0.0134697
745480 729408.32 20090.42 691907.74 53572.2577 53572.26 0.0718628
718000 727449.62 4656.03 749498.74 -31498.739 31498.74 0.0438701
748560 743623.70 12718.66 732105.66 16454.3444 16454.34 0.0219813
718280 729698.71 -5931.89 756342.36 -38062.359 38062.36 0.052991
708720 713234.04 -13304.83 723766.81 -15046.814 15046.81 0.021231
666776 676721.96 -29549.91 699929.21 -33153.212 33153.21 0.0497217
700079 684206.92 -3625.50 647172.06 52906.9427 52906.94 0.0755728
790646 757626.62 50306.14 680581.41 110064.587 110064.59 0.1392084
654346 700422.03 -24951.37 807932.77 -153586.77 153586.77 0.234718
734778 716985.80 4109.23 675470.66 59307.3424 59307.34 0.0807146
687656 721095.02 -33439.022 33439.02 0.0486275
total 1259482.00 1.8365865
mad 54760.086792
mape 7.985%
TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
768900 768900 0 768900 0 0
780900 777300.00 5880.00 768900 -12000 12000 0.0153669
600100 655024.00 -83829.20 783180.00 183080 183080 0.3050825
640500 619708.44 -49869.65 571194.80 -69305.2 69305.20 0.1082048
678976 646234.84 3607.58 569838.79 -109137.21 109137.21 0.160738
690000 677952.73 23284.80 649842.42 -40157.582 40157.58 0.0581994
735020 724885.26 39838.21 701237.52 -33782.478 33782.48 0.0459613
743360 749769.04 29370.11 764723.47 21363.4677 21363.47 0.0287391
688560 715733.75 -15013.67 779139.15 90579.1521 90579.15 0.1315487
705380 703982.02 -12730.31 700720.07 -4659.9271 4659.93 0.0066063
734000 721175.51 8216.35 691251.71 -42748.287 42748.29 0.0582402
690560 702209.56 -10811.26 729391.87 38831.866 38831.87 0.0562324
700900 698049.49 -6155.43 691398.30 -9501.7026 9501.70 0.0135564
745480 729404.22 20101.68 691894.06 -53585.939 53585.94 0.0718811
718000 727451.77 4663.79 749505.90 31505.9003 31505.90 0.0438801
748560 743626.67 12721.57 732115.56 -16444.439 16444.44 0.0219681
718280 729700.47 -5931.87 756348.23 38068.2342 38068.23 0.0529992
708720 713234.58 -13305.68 723768.60 15048.6015 15048.60 0.0212335
666776 676721.87 -29550.60 699928.90 33152.8969 33152.90 0.0497212
700079 684206.68 -3625.81 647171.27 -52907.734 52907.73 0.0755739
790646 757626.46 50306.10 680580.87 -110065.13 110065.13 0.1392091
654346 700421.97 -24951.31 807932.56 153586.562 153586.56 0.2347177
734778 716985.80 4109.29 675470.66 -59307.345 59307.34 0.0807146
687656 697687.72 -12275.86 721095.08 33439.0822 33439.08 0.0486276
635678 685411.86 49733.86 49733.86 0.0782375
total 1252258.74 1.829002
mad 54446.0322
mape 7.952%

TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
780900 780900 0 780900 0 0
600100 654340.00 -88592.00 780900 180800 180800 0.3012831
640500 618074.40 -51963.52 565748.00 -74752 74752 0.1167088
678976 645116.46 3340.39 566110.88 -112865.12 112865.12 0.1662284
690000 677537.06 23696.53 648456.85 -41543.147 41543.15 0.0602075
735020 724884.08 40251.87 701233.59 -33786.413 33786.41 0.0459667
743360 749892.78 29581.66 765135.95 21775.9494 21775.95 0.0292939
688560 715834.33 -14966.42 779474.44 90914.443 90914.44 0.1320356
705380 704026.37 -12755.50 700867.91 -4512.086 4512.09 0.0063967
734000 721181.26 8181.77 691270.88 -42729.123 42729.12 0.0582141
690560 702200.91 -10831.71 729363.04 38803.0365 38803.04 0.0561907
700900 698040.76 -6161.62 691369.20 -9530.8036 9530.80 0.013598
745480 729399.74 20102.80 691879.14 -53600.862 53600.86 0.0719011
718000 727450.76 4666.56 749502.54 31502.5429 31502.54 0.0438754
748560 743627.20 12723.47 732117.32 -16442.682 16442.68 0.0219657
718280 729701.20 -5931.16 756350.66 38070.665 38070.66 0.0530025
708720 713235.01 -13305.68 723770.04 15050.0431 15050.04 0.0212355
666776 676722.00 -29550.81 699929.34 33153.3354 33153.34 0.0497218
700079 684206.66 -3625.98 647171.19 -52907.811 52907.81 0.0755741
790646 757626.40 50306.03 680580.67 -110065.33 110065.33 0.1392094
654346 700421.93 -24951.32 807932.43 153586.428 153586.43 0.2347175
734778 716985.78 4109.30 675470.60 -59307.395 59307.40 0.0807147
687656 697687.72 -12275.85 721095.08 33439.0816 33439.08 0.0486276
635678 650598.16 -36645.45 685411.87 49733.8746 49733.87 0.0782375
654788 613952.71 -40835.286 40835.29 0.0623641
total 1298872.17 1.9049064
mad 56472.703038
mape 8.282%

TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
600100 600100 0 600100 0 0
640500 628380.00 19796.00 600100 -40400 40400 0.0630757
678976 669736.00 34888.00 648176.00 -30800 30800 0.0453624
690000 694387.20 27722.24 704624.00 14624 14624.00 0.0211942
735020 731146.83 34048.41 722109.44 -12910.56 12910.56 0.0175649
743360 749910.57 23349.14 765195.25 21835.2464 21835.25 0.0293737
688560 713969.92 -18153.72 773259.72 84699.7176 84699.72 0.1230099
705380 702510.86 -13467.45 695816.20 -9563.8027 9563.80 0.0135584
734000 720513.02 8561.28 689043.40 -44956.595 44956.60 0.0612488
690560 702114.29 -10310.73 729074.30 38514.2985 38514.30 0.0557726
700900 698171.07 -5853.47 691803.56 -9096.4396 9096.44 0.0129782
745480 729531.28 20196.11 692317.59 -53162.406 53162.41 0.071313
718000 727518.21 4649.69 749727.38 31727.3833 31727.38 0.0441886
748560 743642.37 12681.82 732167.90 -16392.098 16392.10 0.0218982
718280 729693.26 -5959.84 756324.19 38044.1858 38044.19 0.0529657
708720 713224.03 -13316.41 723733.42 15013.4198 15013.42 0.0211839
666776 676715.48 -29550.90 699907.61 33131.6143 33131.61 0.0496893
700079 684204.67 -3622.84 647164.58 -52914.418 52914.42 0.0755835
790646 757626.75 50308.60 680581.84 -110064.16 110064.16 0.1392079
654346 700422.81 -24950.18 807935.35 153589.353 153589.35 0.2347219
734778 716986.39 4109.45 675472.63 -59305.375 59305.37 0.080712
687656 697687.95 -12276.07 721095.84 33439.8404 33439.84 0.0486287
635678 650598.16 -36645.67 685411.88 49733.8832 49733.88 0.0782375
654788 642537.35 -16636.27 613952.49 -40835.507 40835.51 0.0623645
690807 625901.07 -64905.925 64905.93 0.0939567
total 994754.31 1.4238334
mad 43250.187253
mape 6.191%

TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
640500 640500 0 640500 0 0
678976 667433.20 18853.24 640500 -38476 38476 0.0566677
690000 688885.93 20672.88 686286.44 -3713.56 3713.56 0.005382
735020 727381.64 33148.86 709558.82 -25461.184 25461.18 0.0346401
743360 748511.15 24735.31 760530.51 17170.5093 17170.51 0.0230985
688560 713965.94 -16761.05 773246.47 84686.4676 84686.47 0.1229907
705380 702927.47 -12755.25 697204.89 -8175.114 8175.11 0.0115897
734000 720851.67 8720.37 690172.22 -43827.783 43827.78 0.0597109
690560 702263.61 -10395.53 729572.03 39012.0303 39012.03 0.0564933
700900 698190.42 -5969.89 691868.08 -9031.9207 9031.92 0.0128862
745480 729502.16 20127.25 692220.54 -53259.465 53259.46 0.0714432
718000 727488.82 4628.84 749629.41 31629.4097 31629.41 0.0440521
748560 743627.30 12685.58 732117.66 -16442.339 16442.34 0.0219653
718280 729689.86 -5950.53 756312.88 38032.8827 38032.88 0.0529499
708720 713225.80 -13310.00 723739.34 15019.3366 15019.34 0.0211922
666776 676717.94 -29548.50 699915.80 33139.7979 33139.80 0.0497015
700079 684206.13 -3622.82 647169.44 -52909.565 52909.56 0.0755766
790646 757627.19 50307.90 680583.31 -110062.69 110062.69 0.139206
654346 700422.73 -24950.76 807935.09 153589.093 153589.09 0.2347215
734778 716986.19 4109.20 675471.97 -59306.029 59306.03 0.0807129
687656 697687.82 -12276.10 721095.39 33439.3889 33439.39 0.0486281
635678 650598.11 -36645.62 685411.71 49733.7136 49733.71 0.0782373
654788 642537.35 -16636.22 613952.49 -40835.509 40835.51 0.0623645
690807 671335.24 15167.66 625901.12 -64905.876 64905.88 0.0939566
656556 686502.89 29946.893 29946.89 0.0456121
total 1021859.66 1.4581667
mad 44428.680829
mape 6.340%

TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
678976 678976 0 678976 0 0
690000 686692.80 5401.76 678976 -11024 11024 0.0159768
735020 722142.37 26435.23 692094.56 -42925.44 42925.44 0.0584004
743360 744925.28 23878.60 748577.59 5217.5936 5217.59 0.0070189
688560 712633.16 -15440.90 768803.88 80243.8828 80243.88 0.1165387
705380 702923.68 -11428.91 697192.27 -8187.733 8187.73 0.0116075
734000 721248.43 9398.65 691494.77 -42505.229 42505.23 0.057909
690560 702586.13 -10244.02 730647.08 40087.0848 40087.08 0.0580501
700900 698332.63 -6050.65 692342.11 -8557.8928 8557.89 0.0122099
745480 729520.59 20016.38 692281.98 -53198.019 53198.02 0.0713608
718000 727461.09 4563.26 749536.97 31536.9728 31536.97 0.0439234
748560 743599.31 12665.73 732024.35 -16535.646 16535.65 0.0220899
718280 729675.51 -5946.94 756265.03 37985.0345 37985.03 0.0528833
708720 713222.57 -13301.14 723728.57 15008.5719 15008.57 0.021177
666776 676719.63 -29542.40 699921.43 33145.4329 33145.43 0.04971
700079 684208.47 -3620.53 647177.23 -52901.771 52901.77 0.0755654
790646 757628.58 50307.92 680587.94 -110058.06 110058.06 0.1392002
654346 700423.15 -24951.43 807936.50 153590.499 153590.50 0.2347237
734778 716986.12 4108.65 675471.72 -59306.276 59306.28 0.0807132
687656 697687.63 -12276.35 721094.77 33438.7664 33438.77 0.0486272
635678 650597.99 -36645.66 685411.28 49733.2837 49733.28 0.0782366
654788 642537.30 -16636.18 613952.33 -40835.67 40835.67 0.0623647
690807 671335.24 15167.70 625901.12 -64905.878 64905.88 0.0939566
656556 665540.08 493.70 686502.94 29946.9399 29946.94 0.0456122
676655 666033.78 -10621.215 10621.22 0.0156966
total 1020875.68 1.4578555
mad 44385.899196
mape 6.339%

TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
690000 690000 0 690000 0 0
735020 721514.00 22059.80 690000 -45020 45020 0.06125
743360 743424.14 21955.04 743573.80 213.8 213.8 0.0002876
688560 711605.75 -15686.36 765379.18 76819.178 76819.18 0.111565
705380 702541.82 -11050.66 695919.39 -9460.6058 9460.61 0.0134121
734000 721247.35 9778.67 691491.16 -42508.844 42508.84 0.057914
690560 702699.81 -10049.68 731026.02 40466.018 40466.02 0.0585988
700900 698425.04 -6007.24 692650.13 -8249.8722 8249.87 0.0117704
745480 729561.34 19993.24 692417.80 -53062.202 53062.20 0.0711786
718000 727466.37 4531.50 749554.58 31554.5781 31554.58 0.0439479
748560 743591.36 12646.94 731997.87 -16562.131 16562.13 0.0221253
718280 729667.49 -5952.63 756238.30 37958.3003 37958.30 0.0528461
708720 713218.46 -13300.11 723714.86 14994.8626 14994.86 0.0211577
666776 676718.70 -29539.86 699918.35 33142.3486 33142.35 0.0497054
700079 684208.95 -3618.78 647178.84 -52900.156 52900.16 0.0755631
790646 757629.25 50308.57 680590.17 -110055.83 110055.83 0.1391974
654346 700423.55 -24951.42 807937.82 153591.824 153591.82 0.2347257
734778 716986.24 4108.46 675472.13 -59305.874 59305.87 0.0807126
687656 697687.61 -12276.50 721094.70 33438.6954 33438.70 0.0486271
635678 650597.93 -36645.72 685411.11 49733.1053 49733.11 0.0782363
654788 642537.26 -16636.19 613952.21 -40835.793 40835.79 0.0623649
690807 671335.22 15167.72 625901.08 -64905.924 64905.92 0.0939567
656556 665540.08 493.72 686502.94 29946.9394 29946.94 0.0456122
676655 673468.64 5698.11 666033.80 -10621.202 10621.20 0.0156966
738900 679166.74 -59733.255 59733.26 0.0808408
total 1015348.09 1.4504514
mad 44145.568914
mape 6.306%

TY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
735020 735020 0 735020 0 0
743360 740858.00 4086.60 735020 -8340 8340 0.0112193
688560 705475.38 -23541.85 744944.60 56384.6 56384.6 0.0818877
705380 698346.06 -12053.08 681933.53 -23446.474 23446.47 0.0332395
734000 719687.89 11323.36 686292.98 -47707.024 47707.02 0.0649959
690560 702695.38 -8497.75 731011.25 40451.2528 40451.25 0.0585775
700900 698889.29 -5213.59 694197.62 -6702.378 6702.38 0.0095625
745480 729938.71 20170.52 693675.70 -51804.302 51804.30 0.0694912
718000 727632.77 4437.00 750109.23 32109.2287 32109.23 0.0447204
748560 743612.93 12517.21 732069.77 -16490.234 16490.23 0.0220293
718280 729635.04 -6029.36 756130.14 37850.1418 37850.14 0.0526955
708720 713185.71 -13323.34 723605.69 14885.6851 14885.69 0.0210036
666776 676701.91 -29535.66 699862.36 33086.3624 33086.36 0.0496214
700079 684205.17 -3608.41 647166.25 -52912.752 52912.75 0.0755811
790646 757631.23 50315.71 680596.76 -110049.24 110049.24 0.139189
654346 700426.28 -24948.75 807946.94 153600.943 153600.94 0.2347396
734778 716987.86 4108.48 675477.54 -59300.465 59300.46 0.0807053
687656 697688.10 -12277.29 721096.34 33440.3406 33440.34 0.0486295
635678 650597.84 -36646.37 685410.82 49732.8153 49732.82 0.0782359
654788 642537.04 -16636.47 613951.48 -40836.522 40836.52 0.062366
690807 671335.07 15167.68 625900.57 -64906.427 64906.43 0.0939574
656556 665540.03 493.77 686502.75 29946.7505 29946.75 0.0456119
676655 673468.64 5698.16 666033.80 -10621.204 10621.20 0.0156966
738900 720980.04 34967.43 679166.80 -59733.2 59733.20 0.0808407
755947.47
total 1034338.34 1.4745969
mad 44971.232181
mape 6.411%
alpha 0.8
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480 0
feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 693996.80 -9986.56 706480 -15604
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 704712.45 6575.21 684010.24 25877.76
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 691857.53 -8968.89 711287.65 -24287.654
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 695537.73 1150.38 682888.64 15811.3615
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 715337.62 16069.99 696688.11 23311.8933
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 761401.52 40065.12 731407.61 37492.388
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 785013.33 26902.47 801466.64 -20566.641
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 642463.16 -108659.64 811915.80 -211815.8
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 619160.70 -40373.89 533803.52 106696.482
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 658938.16 23747.19 578786.81 100189.189
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688537.07 28428.56 682685.35 7314.6496
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731409.13 39983.36 716965.63 18054.3659
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 748966.50 22042.57 771392.49 -28032.485
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705049.81 -30724.83 771009.06 -82449.065
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699169.00 -10849.62 674324.98 31055.0207
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724863.88 18385.98 688319.38 45680.6246
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701097.97 -15335.53 743249.85 -52689.854
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697872.49 -5647.49 685762.44 15137.5566
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734829.00 28435.71 692225.00 53255.0026
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727052.94 -533.70 763264.71 -45264.71
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.85 13572.38 726519.24 22040.762
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.85 -11671.92 757724.23 -39444.231
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.38 -15369.15 714496.92 -5776.9219
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 685762.44 -18986.443
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 690876 0.00 690876 0
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 706085.60 12167.68 690876 19012
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 693250.66 -7834.42 718253.28 -31253.28
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 696043.25 667.19 685416.24 13283.7632
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 715342.09 15572.51 696710.44 23289.5634
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 761302.92 39883.17 730914.60 37985.4029
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 784957.22 26900.07 801186.09 -20286.087
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 642451.46 -108624.59 811857.29 -211757.29
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 619165.37 -40353.79 533826.86 106673.135
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 658943.12 23751.44 578811.59 100164.414
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688538.91 28426.92 682694.56 7305.44459
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731409.17 39981.59 716965.83 18054.1662
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 748966.15 22041.91 771390.76 -28030.756
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705049.61 -30724.85 771008.06 -82448.057
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699168.95 -10849.50 674324.76 31055.2395
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724863.89 18386.05 688319.45 45680.5454
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701097.99 -15335.51 743249.94 -52689.942
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697872.50 -5647.50 685762.48 15137.5231
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734829.00 28435.70 692225.00 53255.0014
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727052.94 -533.71 763264.70 -45264.704
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.85 13572.38 726519.23 22040.7656
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.85 -11671.92 757724.23 -39444.231
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.38 -15369.15 714496.92 -5776.9222
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.05 -33116.50 694506.23 -27730.23
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 639205.54 60873.4555
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 709888 0.00 709888 0
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 691577.60 -14648.32 709888 -22888
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 694345.86 -715.06 676929.28 21770.72
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 714726.16 16161.23 693630.80 26369.2032
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 761297.48 40489.30 730887.39 38012.6098
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 785077.36 27121.76 801786.78 -20886.779
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 642519.82 -108621.67 812199.12 -212099.12
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 619179.63 -40396.49 533898.15 106601.85
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 658937.43 23726.94 578783.14 100192.859
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688532.87 28421.74 682664.37 7335.63136
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731406.92 39983.59 716954.62 18065.3817
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 748966.10 22044.06 771390.51 -28030.513
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705050.03 -30724.04 771010.16 -82450.163
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699169.20 -10849.48 674325.99 31054.011
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724863.94 18385.90 688319.72 45680.2788
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701097.97 -15335.60 743249.85 -52689.846
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697872.47 -5647.52 685762.37 15137.6304
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734828.99 28435.71 692224.96 53255.0423
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727052.94 -533.70 763264.70 -45264.702
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.85 13572.39 726519.24 22040.7582
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.85 -11671.92 757724.23 -39444.235
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.38 -15369.15 714496.92 -5776.9232
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.05 -33116.50 694506.23 -27730.23
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.31 5842.51 639205.54 60873.4558
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 693746.82 96899.1813
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 687000 0.00 687000 0
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 696360.00 7488.00 687000 11700
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 716769.60 17825.28 703848.00 16152
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 762038.98 39780.56 734594.88 34305.12
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 785083.91 26392.06 801819.53 -20919.533
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 642375.19 -108888.56 811475.96 -211375.96
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 619097.33 -40400.00 533486.63 107013.368
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 658920.26 23778.35 578697.32 100278.678
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688539.72 28451.24 682698.61 7301.38635
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731414.19 39989.82 716990.96 18029.0407
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 748968.80 22041.65 771404.01 -28044.014
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705050.09 -30726.64 771010.46 -82450.456
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699168.69 -10850.45 674323.45 31056.5474
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724863.65 18385.88 688318.24 45681.7578
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701097.91 -15335.42 743249.53 -52689.525
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697872.50 -5647.41 685762.49 15137.5144
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734829.02 28435.73 692225.09 53254.9131
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727052.95 -533.71 763264.75 -45264.752
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.85 13572.38 726519.24 22040.7565
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.85 -11671.93 757724.23 -39444.226
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.38 -15369.15 714496.92 -5776.9179
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.05 -33116.50 694506.23 -27730.229
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.31 5842.51 639205.54 60873.4554
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.16 67857.99 693746.82 96899.1808
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 839124.15 -184778.15
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 698700 0.00 698700 0
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 715740.00 13632.00 698700 21300
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 760994.40 38929.92 729372.00 39528
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 784704.86 26754.36 799924.32 -19024.32
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 642371.84 -108515.55 811459.22 -211359.22
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 619171.26 -40263.58 533856.30 106643.701
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 658962.34 23780.15 578907.68 100068.317
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688548.50 28424.96 682742.48 7257.51701
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731410.69 39974.75 716973.45 18046.5462
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 748965.09 22038.47 771385.44 -28025.438
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705048.71 -30725.41 771003.55 -82443.554
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699168.66 -10849.12 674323.30 31056.6971
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724863.91 18386.37 688319.54 45680.4612
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701098.06 -15335.41 743250.28 -52690.281
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697872.53 -5647.50 685762.65 15137.3503
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734829.01 28435.68 692225.03 53254.9724
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727052.94 -533.72 763264.69 -45264.686
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.84 13572.38 726519.22 22040.7816
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.85 -11671.92 757724.23 -39444.225
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.38 -15369.15 714496.92 -5776.9224
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.05 -33116.50 694506.23 -27730.232
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.31 5842.51 639205.55 60873.4548
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.16 67857.99 693746.82 96899.181
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.63 -50400.03 839124.15 -184778.15
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 640901.60 93876.4
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 720000 0.00 720000 0
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 759120.00 31296.00 720000 48900
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 782803.20 25205.76 790416.00 -9516
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 641681.79 -107855.97 808008.96 -207908.96
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 619165.16 -39584.50 533825.82 106674.182
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 659096.93 24028.52 579580.67 99395.3341
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688625.09 28428.23 683125.45 6874.55064
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731426.66 39926.90 717053.32 17966.6815
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 748958.71 22011.02 771353.57 -27993.568
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705041.95 -30731.21 770969.73 -82409.735
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699166.15 -10846.88 674310.74 31069.2623
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724863.85 18388.79 688319.27 45680.7338
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701098.53 -15334.50 743252.64 -52692.642
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697872.81 -5647.48 685764.03 15135.974
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734829.07 28435.51 692225.33 53254.6737
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727052.92 -533.82 763264.58 -45264.578
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.82 13572.36 726519.10 22040.9019
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.84 -11671.92 757724.18 -39444.179
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.38 -15369.14 714496.92 -5776.9209
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.05 -33116.50 694506.24 -27730.24
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.31 5842.51 639205.55 60873.4499
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.16 67857.99 693746.82 96899.1799
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.63 -50400.03 839124.15 -184778.15
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.72 9680.87 640901.60 93876.4004
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 725683.59 -38027.586
total
mad
mape
BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 768900 0.00 768900 0
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 778500.00 7680.00 768900 -12000
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 637316.00 -111411.20 786180.00 186080
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 617580.96 -38070.27 525904.80 -114595.2
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 659082.94 25587.53 579510.69 -99465.312
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688934.09 28998.43 684670.47 -5329.5347
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731602.50 39934.42 717932.52 -17087.477
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 748995.38 21901.19 771536.92 28176.9198
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705027.31 -30794.22 770896.57 82336.5705
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699150.62 -10860.20 674233.10 -31146.904
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724858.08 18393.93 688290.42 -45709.581
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701098.40 -15328.96 743252.02 52692.0158
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697873.89 -5645.40 685769.44 -15130.555
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734829.70 28435.57 692228.49 -53251.514
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727053.05 -534.20 763265.26 45265.2632
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.77 13572.13 726518.85 -22041.15
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.78 -11671.96 757723.90 39443.9035
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.36 -15369.13 714496.82 5776.8159
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.05 -33116.48 694506.24 27730.2362
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.31 5842.52 639205.57 -60873.431
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.17 67857.99 693746.83 -96899.169
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.63 -50400.03 839124.15 184778.152
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.72 9680.87 640901.60 -93876.401
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 695261.52 -14656.79 725683.58 38027.5849
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 680604.73 44926.7278
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780900 0.00 780900 0
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 636260.00 -115712.00 780900 180800
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 616509.60 -38942.72 520548.00 -119952
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 658694.18 25959.12 577566.88 -101409.12
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688930.66 29381.01 684653.29 -5346.7072
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731678.33 40074.34 718311.67 -16708.332
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 749038.54 21903.03 771752.68 28392.6755
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705036.31 -30821.17 770941.56 82381.5647
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699147.03 -10875.66 674215.14 -31164.859
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724854.27 18390.66 688271.37 -45728.634
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701096.99 -15327.70 743244.94 52684.9368
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697873.86 -5644.04 685769.29 -15130.709
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734829.96 28436.08 692229.82 -53250.184
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727053.21 -534.19 763266.04 45266.0386
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.80 13572.04 726519.02 -22040.982
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.77 -11672.02 757723.84 39443.8426
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.35 -15369.14 714496.75 5776.74817
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.04 -33116.47 694506.21 27730.2105
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.31 5842.52 639205.57 -60873.432
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.17 67857.99 693746.84 -96899.164
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.63 -50400.03 839124.15 184778.155
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.72 9680.86 640901.60 -93876.401
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 695261.52 -14656.79 725683.58 38027.5847
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 644663.35 -43409.90 680604.73 44926.7276
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 601253.45 -53534.55
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 600100 0.00 600100 0
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 632420.00 25856.00 600100 -40400
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 674836.00 39104.00 658276.00 -20700
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 694788.00 23782.40 713940.00 23940
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731730.08 34310.14 718570.40 -16449.6
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 747896.04 19794.80 766040.22 22680.224
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 704386.17 -30848.94 767690.85 79130.8454
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699011.45 -10469.57 673537.23 -31842.771
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724908.38 18623.63 688541.88 -45458.121
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701154.40 -15278.45 743532.01 52972.0065
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697895.19 -5663.06 685875.95 -15024.052
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734830.43 28415.58 692232.13 -53247.871
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727049.20 -541.86 763246.00 45246.0029
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744149.47 13571.84 726507.34 -22052.664
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.26 -11670.60 757721.31 39441.3074
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.53 -15368.30 714497.67 5777.66501
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.25 -33116.29 694507.23 27731.2309
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.39 5842.46 639205.96 -60873.044
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.17 67857.91 693746.85 -96899.151
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.62 -50400.06 839124.08 184778.084
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.71 9680.86 640901.56 -93876.443
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 695261.52 -14656.78 725683.58 38027.5753
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 644663.35 -43409.89 680604.73 44926.7307
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644081.09 -9147.78 601253.45 -53534.546
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 634933.31 -55873.692
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 640500 0.00 640500 0
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 671280.80 24624.64 640500 -38476
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 691181.09 20845.16 695905.44 5905.44
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 730421.25 35561.16 712026.25 -22993.754
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 747884.48 21082.82 765982.41 22622.41
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 704641.46 -30377.85 768967.30 80407.3003
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699156.72 -10463.36 674263.61 -31116.394
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 724938.67 18532.89 688693.36 -45306.641
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701142.31 -15330.51 743471.56 52911.56
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697882.36 -5674.06 685811.80 -15088.198
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734825.66 28419.83 692208.30 -53271.703
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727049.10 -537.28 763245.49 45245.486
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744150.36 13573.56 726511.81 -22048.187
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726168.78 -11670.55 757723.92 39443.9179
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.65 -15368.62 714498.23 5778.2315
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.21 -33116.48 694507.03 27731.0261
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.35 5842.42 639205.73 -60873.272
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.15 67857.93 693746.76 -96899.237
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.62 -50400.04 839124.08 184778.081
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.71 9680.87 640901.57 -93876.427
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 695261.52 -14656.78 725683.58 38027.5846
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 644663.35 -43409.89 680604.73 44926.7328
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644081.09 -9147.78 601253.45 -53534.547
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 679632.26 26611.38 634933.31 -55873.693
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 706243.64 49687.6414
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 678976 0.00 678976 0
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 687795.20 7055.36 678976 -11024
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 726986.11 32763.80 694850.56 -40169.44
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 746637.98 22274.26 759749.91 16389.9136
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 704630.45 -29151.18 768912.24 80352.2396
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699399.85 -10014.71 675479.27 -29900.729
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 725077.03 18538.80 689385.14 -44614.856
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701171.17 -15416.93 743615.83 53055.8264
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697870.85 -5723.64 685754.23 -15145.766
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734813.44 28409.35 692147.21 -53332.794
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727044.56 -533.24 763222.79 45222.7884
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744150.26 13577.92 726511.32 -22048.68
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726169.64 -11668.92 757728.18 39448.1817
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709876.14 -15368.58 714500.72 5780.71769
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.31 -33116.78 694507.57 27731.5656
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.31 5842.24 639205.53 -60873.467
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.11 67857.89 693746.55 -96899.455
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.60 -50400.03 839124.00 184777.999
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.71 9680.89 640901.57 -93876.43
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 695261.52 -14656.78 725683.60 38027.5996
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 644663.35 -43409.89 680604.74 44926.7417
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644081.09 -9147.78 601253.46 -53534.545
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 679632.26 26611.38 634933.31 -55873.693
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 666493.53 -5188.71 706243.64 49687.6407
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 661304.82 -15350.183
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690000 0.00 690000 0
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 726016.00 28812.80 690000 -45020
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 745653.76 21472.77 754828.80 11468.8
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 704273.31 -28809.81 767126.53 78566.528
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699396.70 -9663.25 675463.50 -29916.504
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 725146.69 18667.34 689733.45 -44266.548
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701210.81 -15415.24 743814.03 53254.034
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697879.11 -5748.40 685795.57 -15104.431
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734810.14 28395.14 692130.71 -53349.288
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727041.06 -536.24 763205.28 45205.2848
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744148.96 13579.08 726504.82 -22055.183
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726169.61 -11667.67 757728.04 39448.0406
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709876.39 -15368.11 714501.94 5781.93933
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672322.46 -33116.77 694508.28 27732.2779
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.34 5842.15 639205.69 -60873.312
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.10 67857.84 693746.49 -96899.51
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.59 -50400.04 839123.94 184777.937
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.71 9680.89 640901.55 -93876.453
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 695261.52 -14656.77 725683.60 38027.5988
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 644663.35 -43409.89 680604.75 44926.746
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644081.09 -9147.78 601253.46 -53534.542
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 679632.26 26611.38 634933.31 -55873.693
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 666493.53 -5188.71 706243.64 49687.6405
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 673584.96 4635.41 661304.82 -15350.183
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 678220.37 -60679.63
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 735020 0.00 735020 0
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 741692.00 5337.60 735020 -8340
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 700253.92 -32082.94 747029.60 58469.6
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 697938.20 -8269.17 668170.98 -37209.024
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 725133.81 20102.65 689669.03 -44330.973
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701495.29 -14890.28 745236.46 54676.4597
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698041.00 -5741.49 686605.01 -14294.988
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 734843.90 28294.02 692299.51 -53180.485
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727027.59 -594.25 763137.93 45137.9259
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744134.67 13566.82 726433.34 -22126.664
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726164.30 -11662.93 757701.48 39421.4827
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709876.27 -15363.01 714501.36 5781.36322
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 672323.45 -33114.86 694513.27 27737.2669
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687904.92 5842.20 639208.60 -60870.403
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 771266.22 67857.48 693747.12 -96898.879
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.54 -50400.25 839123.71 184777.708
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.66 9680.84 640901.29 -93876.708
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 695261.50 -14656.76 725683.50 38027.5021
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 644663.35 -43409.87 680604.74 44926.7427
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 644081.10 -9147.78 601253.48 -53534.525
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 679632.26 26611.38 634933.32 -55873.682
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 666493.53 -5188.71 706243.64 49687.6428
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 673584.96 4635.41 661304.82 -15350.184
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 726764.07 43470.37 678220.37 -60679.631
jan 2019 770234.44
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.9
Dengan Data Acuan 18 Bulan

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480
15604 0.0225858 feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 692436.40
25877.76 0.0364533 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 706878.92
24287.65 0.0353532 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 690161.33
15811.36 0.0226297 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 696458.89
23311.89 0.0323776 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 718073.95
37492.39 0.0487611 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 765805.56
20566.64 0.0263371 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 783885.22
211815.80 0.3529675 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 620555.16
106696.48 0.1665831 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 624013.47
100189.19 0.1475592 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 672341.79
7314.65 0.0106009 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 692469.93
18054.37 0.0245631 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 733000.10
28032.49 0.0377105 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 746195.24
82449.06 0.1197413 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 695898.21
31055.02 0.0440259 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700062.56
45680.62 0.0622352 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 730544.12
52689.85 0.0763002 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 697295.54
15137.56 0.0215973 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697820.89
53255.00 0.0714372 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 740489.51
45264.71 0.0630428 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 724066.67
22040.76 0.0294442 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 745014.38
39444.23 0.0549148 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 722729.10
5776.92 0.0081512 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708292.80
18986.44 0.028475 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
1027848.42 1.5153724 total
44689.061571 mad
6.589% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 690876
19012 0.0267817 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 707986.80
31253.28 0.0454924 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 690638.65
13283.76 0.0190121 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 696486.53
23289.56 0.0323466 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 718034.23
37985.40 0.0494023 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 765791.27
20286.09 0.0259778 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 783885.05
211757.29 0.35287 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 620556.54
106673.14 0.1665467 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 624013.89
100164.41 0.1475228 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 672341.77
7305.44 0.0105876 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 692469.89
18054.17 0.0245628 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 733000.09
28030.76 0.0377082 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 746195.24
82448.06 0.1197398 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 695898.21
31055.24 0.0440263 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700062.56
45680.55 0.0622351 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 730544.12
52689.94 0.0763003 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 697295.54
15137.52 0.0215973 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697820.89
53255.00 0.0714372 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 740489.51
45264.70 0.0630428 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 724066.67
22040.77 0.0294442 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 745014.38
39444.23 0.0549148 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 722729.10
5776.92 0.0081512 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708292.80
27730.23 0.0415885 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 669445.60
60873.46 0.0869523 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
1037618.46 1.5312884 total
45113.846197 mad
6.658% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 709888
22888 0.0333159 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 689288.80
21770.72 0.0311589 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 695904.95
26369.20 0.0366239 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 718000.56
38012.61 0.0494377 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 765839.67
20886.78 0.0267471 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 783902.45
212099.12 0.3534396 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 620556.74
106601.85 0.1664354 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 624012.21
100192.86 0.1475647 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 672341.27
7335.63 0.0106313 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 692469.91
18065.38 0.0245781 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 733000.15
28030.51 0.0377079 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 746195.25
82450.16 0.1197429 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 695898.21
31054.01 0.0440245 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700062.56
45680.28 0.0622347 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 730544.12
52689.85 0.0763002 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 697295.54
15137.63 0.0215974 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697820.89
53255.04 0.0714373 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 740489.51
45264.70 0.0630428 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 724066.67
22040.76 0.0294442 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 745014.38
39444.23 0.0549148 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 722729.10
5776.92 0.0081512 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708292.80
27730.23 0.0415885 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 669445.60
60873.46 0.0869523 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693371.20
96899.18 0.122557 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
1083649.94 1.5970711 total
47115.214852 mad
6.944% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 687000
11700 0.0167454 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 697530.00
16152 0.0224333 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 718700.70
34305.12 0.0446158 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 765880.20
20919.53 0.026789 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 783844.19
211375.96 0.3522346 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 620535.79
107013.37 0.1670779 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 624011.96
100278.68 0.147691 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 672343.29
7301.39 0.0105817 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 692470.52
18029.04 0.0245286 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 733000.12
28044.01 0.037726 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 746195.18
82450.46 0.1197433 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 695898.19
31056.55 0.0440281 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700062.56
45681.76 0.0622367 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 730544.12
52689.53 0.0762997 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 697295.54
15137.51 0.0215973 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697820.89
53254.91 0.0714371 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 740489.51
45264.75 0.0630428 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 724066.67
22040.76 0.0294442 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 745014.38
39444.23 0.0549148 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 722729.10
5776.92 0.0081512 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708292.80
27730.23 0.0415885 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 669445.60
60873.46 0.0869523 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693371.20
96899.18 0.122557 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 782707.38
184778.15 0.282386 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
1133419.33 1.6524164 total
49279.101467 mad
7.184% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 698700
21300 0.0295833 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 717870.00
39528 0.0514085 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 765522.30
19024.32 0.024362 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 783823.47
211359.22 0.3522067 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 620565.58
106643.70 0.1665007 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 624022.67
100068.32 0.1473812 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 672343.42
7257.52 0.0105181 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 692469.48
18046.55 0.0245525 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 732999.81
28025.44 0.037701 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 746195.20
82443.55 0.1197333 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 695898.23
31056.70 0.0440283 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700062.57
45680.46 0.062235 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 730544.12
52690.28 0.0763008 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 697295.54
15137.35 0.021597 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697820.89
53254.97 0.0714372 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 740489.51
45264.69 0.0630427 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 724066.67
22040.78 0.0294442 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 745014.38
39444.23 0.0549148 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 722729.10
5776.92 0.0081512 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708292.80
27730.23 0.0415885 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 669445.60
60873.45 0.0869523 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693371.20
96899.18 0.122557 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 782707.38
184778.15 0.282386 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 675401.28
93876.40 0.1277616 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
1314324.01 1.9285824 total
57144.521997 mad
8.385% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 720000
48900 0.0635973 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 764010.00
9516 0.0121859 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 783171.90
207908.96 0.3464572 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 620527.85
106674.18 0.1665483 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 624076.89
99395.33 0.1463901 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 672362.91
6874.55 0.0099631 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 692469.72
17966.68 0.0244438 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 732997.93
27993.57 0.0376582 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 746194.63
82409.73 0.1196842 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 695898.25
31069.26 0.0440461 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700062.63
45680.73 0.0622353 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 730544.14
52692.64 0.0763042 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 697295.54
15135.97 0.0215951 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697820.89
53254.67 0.0714368 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 740489.50
45264.58 0.0630426 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 724066.67
22040.90 0.0294444 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 745014.38
39444.18 0.0549148 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 722729.10
5776.92 0.0081512 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708292.80
27730.24 0.0415885 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 669445.60
60873.45 0.0869523 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693371.20
96899.18 0.122557 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 782707.38
184778.15 0.282386 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 675401.28
93876.40 0.1277616 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 720004.69
38027.59 0.0553003 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
1382156.30 2.0193439 total
60093.752006 mad
8.780% mape
|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level
0 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 768900
12000 0.0153669 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 779700.00
186080 0.3100817 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 619032.00
114595.20 0.1789152 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 623990.28
99465.31 0.1464931 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 672487.38
5329.53 0.007724 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 692514.47
17087.48 0.0232476 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 732998.46
28176.92 0.0379048 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 746190.31
82336.57 0.1195779 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 695896.94
31146.90 0.0441562 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700062.68
45709.58 0.0622746 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 730544.28
52692.02 0.0763033 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 697295.57
15130.56 0.0215873 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697820.89
53251.51 0.0714325 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 740489.50
45265.26 0.0630435 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 724066.67
22041.15 0.0294447 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 745014.38
39443.90 0.0549144 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 722729.10
5776.82 0.0081511 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708292.80
27730.24 0.0415885 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 669445.60
60873.43 0.0869522 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693371.20
96899.17 0.122557 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 782707.38
184778.15 0.282386 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 675401.28
93876.40 0.1277616 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 720004.69
38027.58 0.0553003 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 694021.61
44926.73 0.0706753 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
1357713.69 1.9871645 total
59031.029999 mad
8.640% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780900
180800 0.3012831 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 618180.00
119952 0.1872787 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 623623.20
101409.12 0.149356 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 672466.13
5346.71 0.0077489 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 692545.02
16708.33 0.0227318 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 733009.44
28392.68 0.0381951 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 746190.44
82381.56 0.1196433 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 695895.88
31164.86 0.0441817 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700062.36
45728.63 0.0623006 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 730544.30
52684.94 0.0762931 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 697295.61
15130.71 0.0215875 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697820.90
53250.18 0.0714307 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 740489.50
45266.04 0.0630446 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 724066.67
22040.98 0.0294445 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 745014.38
39443.84 0.0549143 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 722729.10
5776.75 0.008151 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708292.80
27730.21 0.0415885 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 669445.60
60873.43 0.0869522 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693371.20
96899.16 0.122557 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 782707.38
184778.15 0.282386 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 675401.28
93876.40 0.1277616 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 720004.69
38027.58 0.0553003 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 694021.61
44926.73 0.0706753 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 639486.96
53534.55 0.0817586 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
1392589.01 2.0448056 total
60547.348103 mad
8.890% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 600100
40400 0.0630757 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 636460.00
20700 0.0304871 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 677996.80
23940.00 0.0346957 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 692865.23
16449.60 0.0223798 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 732549.24
22680.22 0.0305104 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 746024.96
79130.85 0.1149222 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 695893.91
31842.77 0.0451427 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700078.34
45458.12 0.061932 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 730549.13
52972.01 0.0767088 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 697295.41
15024.05 0.0214354 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697820.36
53247.87 0.0714276 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 740489.36
45246.00 0.0630167 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 724066.68
22052.66 0.0294601 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 745014.40
39441.31 0.0549108 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 722729.11
5777.67 0.0081523 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708292.80
27731.23 0.04159 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 669445.60
60873.04 0.0869517 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693371.20
96899.15 0.1225569 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 782707.38
184778.08 0.2823859 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 675401.28
93876.44 0.1277616 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 720004.69
38027.58 0.0553003 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 694021.61
44926.73 0.0706753 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 639486.96
53534.55 0.0817586 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 648147.24
55873.69 0.0808818 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
1115009.93 1.5972376 total
48478.692812 mad
6.945% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 640500
38476 0.0566677 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 675128.40
5905.44 0.0085586 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 691629.40
22993.75 0.0312832 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 732477.68
22622.41 0.0304326 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 746127.79
80407.30 0.116776 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 695930.89
31116.39 0.044113 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700078.78
45306.64 0.0617257 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 730545.56
52911.56 0.0766212 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 697294.33
15088.20 0.0215269 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697820.40
53271.70 0.0714596 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 740489.48
45245.49 0.063016 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 724066.71
22048.19 0.0294541 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 745014.40
39443.92 0.0549144 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 722729.10
5778.23 0.0081531 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708292.80
27731.03 0.0415897 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 669445.60
60873.27 0.086952 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693371.20
96899.24 0.122557 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 782707.38
184778.08 0.2823859 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 675401.28
93876.43 0.1277616 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 720004.69
38027.58 0.0553003 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 694021.61
44926.73 0.0706753 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 639486.96
53534.55 0.0817586 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 648147.24
55873.69 0.0808818 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 686809.38
49687.64 0.0756792 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
1137135.82 1.6245643 total
49440.687931 mad
7.063% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 678976
11024 0.0159768 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688897.60
40169.44 0.0546508 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731300.70
16389.91 0.0220484 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 746059.64
80352.24 0.1166961 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 696028.83
29900.73 0.0423895 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700114.00
44614.86 0.0607832 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 730545.98
53055.83 0.0768301 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 697290.93
15145.77 0.021609 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697819.37
53332.79 0.0715415 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 740489.52
45222.79 0.0629844 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 724066.82
22048.68 0.0294548 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 745014.43
39448.18 0.0549203 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 722729.10
5780.72 0.0081566 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708292.80
27731.57 0.0415905 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 669445.60
60873.47 0.0869523 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693371.20
96899.45 0.1225573 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 782707.38
184778.00 0.2823858 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 675401.28
93876.43 0.1277616 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 720004.69
38027.60 0.0553003 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 694021.61
44926.74 0.0706753 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 639486.96
53534.54 0.0817586 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 648147.24
55873.69 0.0808818 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 686809.38
49687.64 0.0756792 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 663087.77
15350.18 0.0226854 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
1162695.07 1.6635844 total
50551.95944 mad
7.233% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690000
45020 0.06125 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 730518.00
11468.8 0.0154283 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 745722.42
78566.53 0.1141027 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 696009.30
29916.50 0.0424119 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700142.06
44266.55 0.0603086 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 730556.07
53254.03 0.0771172 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 697291.05
15104.43 0.0215501 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697818.40
53349.29 0.0715637 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 740489.23
45205.28 0.06296 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 724066.84
22055.18 0.0294635 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 745014.46
39448.04 0.0549201 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 722729.11
5781.94 0.0081583 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708292.80
27732.28 0.0415916 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 669445.60
60873.31 0.0869521 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693371.20
96899.51 0.1225574 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 782707.38
184777.94 0.2823857 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 675401.28
93876.45 0.1277617 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 720004.69
38027.60 0.0553003 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 694021.61
44926.75 0.0706753 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 639486.96
53534.54 0.0817586 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 648147.24
55873.69 0.0808818 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 686809.38
49687.64 0.0756792 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 663087.77
15350.18 0.0226854 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 673513.97
60679.63 0.0821216 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
1164996.47 1.6674634 total
50652.020652 mad
7.250% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


0 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 735020
8340 0.0112193 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 742526.00
58469.6 0.0849158 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 694632.14
37209.02 0.0527503 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700062.32
44330.97 0.0603964 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 730670.66
54676.46 0.079177 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 697332.26
14294.99 0.0203952 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697818.89
53180.49 0.0713372 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 740485.25
45137.93 0.0628662 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 724065.63
22126.66 0.029559 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 745014.51
39421.48 0.0548832 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 722729.24
5781.36 0.0081575 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708292.83
27737.27 0.0415991 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 669445.60
60870.40 0.0869479 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693371.20
96898.88 0.1225566 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 782707.38
184777.71 0.2823853 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 675401.28
93876.71 0.127762 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 720004.69
38027.50 0.0553002 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 694021.61
44926.74 0.0706753 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 639486.96
53534.52 0.0817586 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 648147.24
55873.68 0.0808818 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 686809.38
49687.64 0.0756792 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 663087.77
15350.18 0.0226854 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 673513.97
60679.63 0.0821216 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 733121.33
jan 2019
1165209.84 1.66601 total
50661.297429 mad
7.244% mape
trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
0 706480 0 0
-12639.24 706480 -15604 15604 0.0225858
11734.34 679797.16 30090.84 30090.84 0.0423882
-13872.40 718613.26 -31613.256 31613.26 0.0460164
4280.57 676288.93 22411.0716 22411.07 0.0320754
19881.61 700739.46 19260.5364 19260.54 0.0267507
44946.61 737955.55 30944.4484 30944.45 0.0402451
20766.36 810752.16 -29852.164 29852.16 0.0382279
-144920.42 804651.57 -204551.57 204551.57 0.3408625
-11379.56 475634.74 164865.26 164865.26 0.2574009
42357.53 612633.92 66342.0827 66342.08 0.097709
22351.08 714699.32 -24699.322 24699.32 0.0357961
38712.26 714821.01 20198.9883 20198.99 0.0274809
15746.85 771712.36 -28352.361 28352.36 0.0381408
-43692.64 761942.08 -73382.084 73382.08 0.1065733
-621.35 652205.57 53174.4319 53174.43 0.0753841
27371.27 699441.21 34558.7936 34558.79 0.0470828
-27186.60 757915.39 -67355.393 67355.39 0.0975374
-2245.84 670108.94 30791.0567 30791.06 0.0439307
38177.17 695575.05 49904.9457 49904.95 0.0669434
-10962.84 778666.67 -60666.671 60666.67 0.084494
17756.66 713103.83 35456.1707 35456.17 0.0473658
-18281.08 762771.04 -44491.043 44491.04 0.0619411
-14820.78 704448.02 4271.98036 4271.98 0.0060277
670108.94 -3332.9433 3332.94 0.0049986
total 1142838.47 1.6829599
mad 49688.629294
mape 7.317%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


0 690876 0 0
15399.72 690876 19012 19012 0.0267817
-14073.36 723386.52 -36386.52 36386.52 0.0529644
3855.75 676565.29 22134.7092 22134.71 0.0316798
19778.50 700342.28 19657.7177 19657.72 0.0273024
44959.19 737812.73 31087.2672 31087.27 0.0404308
20780.31 810750.46 -29850.464 29850.46 0.0382257
-144917.63 804665.36 -204565.36 204565.36 0.3408855
-11380.14 475638.91 164861.092 164861.09 0.2573944
42357.08 612633.75 66342.2527 66342.25 0.0977093
22351.01 714698.86 -24698.856 24698.86 0.0357954
38712.28 714820.89 20199.1065 20199.11 0.027481
15746.86 771712.37 -28352.374 28352.37 0.0381408
-43692.64 761942.10 -73382.099 73382.10 0.1065733
-621.35 652205.57 53174.4286 53174.43 0.0753841
27371.27 699441.21 34558.7942 34558.79 0.0470828
-27186.60 757915.39 -67355.393 67355.39 0.0975374
-2245.84 670108.94 30791.0567 30791.06 0.0439307
38177.17 695575.05 49904.9457 49904.95 0.0669434
-10962.84 778666.67 -60666.671 60666.67 0.084494
17756.66 713103.83 35456.1707 35456.17 0.0473658
-18281.08 762771.04 -44491.043 44491.04 0.0619411
-14820.78 704448.02 4271.98036 4271.98 0.0060277
-36444.56 693472.02 -26696.021 26696.02 0.0400375
633001.04 67077.9558 67077.96 0.0958148
total 1147896.32 1.692109
mad 49908.535826
mape 7.357%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


0 709888 0 0
-18539.28 709888 -22888 22888 0.0333159
4100.61 670749.52 27950.48 27950.48 0.0400035
20296.10 700005.56 19994.4392 19994.44 0.0277701
45084.81 738296.66 30603.3394 30603.34 0.0398015
20764.98 810924.48 -30024.476 30024.48 0.0384486
-144934.64 804667.43 -204567.43 204567.43 0.3408889
-11383.54 475622.11 164877.892 164877.89 0.2574206
42357.80 612628.67 66347.332 66347.33 0.0977168
22351.56 714699.06 -24699.063 24699.06 0.0357957
38712.37 714821.46 20198.5385 20198.54 0.0274803
15746.83 771712.52 -28352.518 28352.52 0.038141
-43692.66 761942.08 -73382.084 73382.08 0.1065733
-621.35 652205.55 53174.4474 53174.45 0.0753841
27371.27 699441.20 34558.7981 34558.80 0.0470828
-27186.60 757915.39 -67355.393 67355.39 0.0975374
-2245.84 670108.94 30791.0561 30791.06 0.0439307
38177.17 695575.05 49904.9456 49904.95 0.0669434
-10962.84 778666.67 -60666.671 60666.67 0.084494
17756.66 713103.83 35456.1707 35456.17 0.0473658
-18281.08 762771.04 -44491.043 44491.04 0.0619411
-14820.78 704448.02 4271.98036 4271.98 0.0060277
-36444.56 693472.02 -26696.021 26696.02 0.0400375
17888.59 633001.04 67077.9558 67077.96 0.0958148
711259.79 79386.2093 79386.21 0.1004068
total 1188330.08 1.7499154
mad 51666.525073
mape 7.608%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


0 687000 0 0
9477.00 687000 11700 11700 0.0167454
20001.33 707007.00 12993 12993 0.0180458
44461.69 738702.03 30197.97 30197.97 0.0392742
20613.76 810341.89 -29441.889 29441.89 0.0377025
-144916.18 804457.94 -204357.94 204357.94 0.3405398
-11363.07 475619.62 164880.385 164880.38 0.2574245
42361.89 612648.89 66327.1061 66327.11 0.097687
22350.69 714705.18 -24705.178 24705.18 0.0358046
38711.71 714821.21 20198.7879 20198.79 0.0274806
15746.73 771711.83 -28351.834 28351.83 0.0381401
-43692.62 761941.91 -73381.911 73381.91 0.106573
-621.33 652205.57 53174.4293 53174.43 0.0753841
27371.28 699441.22 34558.7756 34558.78 0.0470828
-27186.60 757915.40 -67355.398 67355.40 0.0975374
-2245.84 670108.94 30791.057 30791.06 0.0439307
38177.17 695575.05 49904.9463 49904.95 0.0669434
-10962.84 778666.67 -60666.671 60666.67 0.084494
17756.66 713103.83 35456.1707 35456.17 0.0473658
-18281.08 762771.04 -44491.043 44491.04 0.0619411
-14820.78 704448.02 4271.98035 4271.98 0.0060277
-36444.56 693472.02 -26696.021 26696.02 0.0400375
17888.59 633001.04 67077.9558 67077.96 0.0958148
82191.42 711259.79 79386.2093 79386.21 0.1004068
864898.79 -210552.79 210552.79 0.3217759
total 1220366.66 1.7823836
mad 53059.420117
mape 7.749%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


0 698700 0 0
17253.00 698700 21300 21300 0.0295833
44612.37 735123.00 33777 33777 0.043929
20932.29 810134.67 -29234.67 29234.67 0.0374371
-144838.87 804755.75 -204655.75 204655.75 0.3410361
-11372.50 475726.70 164773.298 164773.30 0.2572573
42351.42 612650.17 66325.8319 66325.83 0.0976851
22348.60 714694.84 -24694.839 24694.84 0.0357896
38712.15 714818.09 20201.9136 20201.91 0.0274848
15747.06 771711.96 -28351.961 28351.96 0.0381403
-43692.57 761942.26 -73382.26 73382.26 0.1065735
-621.35 652205.66 53174.3407 53174.34 0.075384
27371.26 699441.22 34558.7848 34558.78 0.0470828
-27186.60 757915.39 -67355.386 67355.39 0.0975373
-2245.84 670108.94 30791.0594 30791.06 0.0439307
38177.17 695575.05 49904.9459 49904.95 0.0669434
-10962.84 778666.67 -60666.672 60666.67 0.084494
17756.66 713103.83 35456.1706 35456.17 0.0473658
-18281.08 762771.04 -44491.043 44491.04 0.0619411
-14820.78 704448.02 4271.98036 4271.98 0.0060277
-36444.56 693472.02 -26696.021 26696.02 0.0400375
17888.59 633001.04 67077.9558 67077.96 0.0958148
82191.42 711259.79 79386.2093 79386.21 0.1004068
-88356.35 864898.79 -210552.79 210552.79 0.3217759
587044.93 147733.069 147733.07 0.2010581
total 1431080.89 2.1036581
mad 62220.908373
mape 9.146%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


0 720000 0 0
39609.00 720000 48900 48900 0.0635973
21206.61 803619.00 -22719 22719 0.0290934
-144258.98 804378.51 -204278.51 204278.51 0.3404074
-11231.77 476268.87 164231.132 164231.13 0.2564108
42334.25 612845.12 66130.8793 66130.88 0.097398
22329.55 714697.16 -24697.158 24697.16 0.035793
38708.34 714799.26 20220.7362 20220.74 0.0275105
15747.87 771706.27 -28346.271 28346.27 0.0381326
-43691.95 761942.49 -73382.492 73382.49 0.1065739
-621.25 652206.30 53173.7044 53173.70 0.0753831
27371.23 699441.38 34558.6235 34558.62 0.0470826
-27186.62 757915.37 -67355.37 67355.37 0.0975373
-2245.84 670108.92 30791.0805 30791.08 0.0439308
38177.17 695575.05 49904.9503 49904.95 0.0669434
-10962.84 778666.67 -60666.672 60666.67 0.084494
17756.66 713103.83 35456.17 35456.17 0.0473658
-18281.08 762771.04 -44491.043 44491.04 0.0619411
-14820.78 704448.02 4271.9804 4271.98 0.0060277
-36444.56 693472.02 -26696.021 26696.02 0.0400375
17888.59 633001.04 67077.9558 67077.96 0.0958148
82191.42 711259.79 79386.2093 79386.21 0.1004068
-88356.35 864898.79 -210552.79 210552.79 0.3217759
31307.44 587044.93 147733.069 147733.07 0.2010581
751312.13 -63656.131 63656.13 0.0925697
total 1565021.82 2.2847157
mad 68044.427085
mape 9.934%
trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
0 768900 0 0
9720.00 768900 -12000 12000 0.0153669
-143629.20 789420.00 189320 189320 0.3154808
-9900.47 475402.80 -165097.2 165097.20 0.257763
42657.34 614089.81 -64886.188 64886.19 0.0955648
22290.12 715144.73 25144.7255 25144.73 0.0364416
38664.60 714804.59 -20215.411 20215.41 0.0275032
15739.12 771663.06 28303.0583 28303.06 0.0380745
-43690.11 761929.43 73369.428 73369.43 0.1065549
-619.85 652206.83 -53173.172 53173.17 0.0753823
27371.46 699442.84 -34557.163 34557.16 0.0470806
-27186.69 757915.74 67355.74 67355.74 0.0975379
-2245.89 670108.88 -30791.119 30791.12 0.0439308
38177.16 695575.00 -49904.999 49905.00 0.0669434
-10962.83 778666.66 60666.6623 60666.66 0.084494
17756.66 713103.83 -35456.168 35456.17 0.0473658
-18281.08 762771.05 44491.045 44491.05 0.0619411
-14820.78 704448.02 -4271.9801 4271.98 0.0060277
-36444.56 693472.02 26696.0213 26696.02 0.0400375
17888.59 633001.04 -67077.956 67077.96 0.0958148
82191.42 711259.79 -79386.209 79386.21 0.1004068
-88356.35 864898.79 210552.795 210552.79 0.3217759
31307.44 587044.93 -147733.07 147733.07 0.2010581
-20254.03 751312.13 63656.1306 63656.13 0.0925697
673767.58 38089.5847 38089.58 0.0599196
total 1554106.24 2.2751161
mad 67569.836463
mape 9.892%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


0 780900 0 0
-146448.00 780900 180800 180800 0.3012831
-9745.92 471732.00 -168768 168768 0.2634941
42984.04 613877.28 -65098.72 65098.72 0.0958778
22369.40 715450.17 25450.1712 25450.17 0.0368843
38654.92 714914.42 -20105.578 20105.58 0.0273538
15728.39 771664.37 28304.3652 28304.37 0.0380763
-43692.26 761918.82 73358.8237 73358.82 0.1065395
-619.39 652203.62 -53176.378 53176.38 0.0753869
27371.80 699442.97 -34557.032 34557.03 0.0470804
-27186.64 757916.10 67356.0985 67356.10 0.0975384
-2245.91 670108.97 -30791.028 30791.03 0.0439307
38177.15 695574.99 -49905.008 49905.01 0.0669435
-10962.84 778666.65 60666.6505 60666.65 0.0844939
17756.66 713103.83 -35456.171 35456.17 0.0473658
-18281.08 762771.05 44491.0455 44491.05 0.0619411
-14820.78 704448.02 -4271.9798 4271.98 0.0060277
-36444.56 693472.02 26696.0213 26696.02 0.0400375
17888.59 633001.04 -67077.956 67077.96 0.0958148
82191.42 711259.79 -79386.209 79386.21 0.1004068
-88356.35 864898.79 210552.795 210552.79 0.3217759
31307.44 587044.93 -147733.07 147733.07 0.2010581
-20254.03 751312.13 63656.1306 63656.13 0.0925697
-51106.59 673767.58 38089.5847 38089.58 0.0599196
588380.37 -66407.633 66407.63 0.1014185
total 1575748.81 2.3117998
mad 68510.818015
mape 10.051%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


0 600100 0 0
32724.00 600100 -40400 40400 0.0630757
40655.52 669184.00 -9792 9792 0.0144217
17447.14 718652.32 28652.32 28652.32 0.0415251
37460.32 710312.37 -24707.627 24707.63 0.0336149
15874.18 770009.56 26649.5561 26649.56 0.0358501
-43530.52 761899.13 73339.134 73339.13 0.1065109
-587.07 652363.39 -53016.607 53016.61 0.0751603
27365.00 699491.27 -34508.729 34508.73 0.0470146
-27191.84 757914.13 67354.1292 67354.13 0.0975355
-2246.73 670103.57 -30796.43 30796.43 0.0439384
38177.43 695573.62 -49906.378 49906.38 0.0669453
-10962.67 778666.79 60666.7935 60666.79 0.0844941
17756.68 713104.01 -35455.992 35455.99 0.0473656
-18281.10 762771.08 44491.0829 44491.08 0.0619411
-14820.79 704448.01 -4271.9867 4271.99 0.0060277
-36444.56 693472.02 26696.0156 26696.02 0.0400375
17888.59 633001.04 -67077.957 67077.96 0.0958148
82191.42 711259.79 -79386.209 79386.21 0.1004068
-88356.35 864898.80 210552.795 210552.80 0.3217759
31307.44 587044.93 -147733.07 147733.07 0.2010581
-20254.03 751312.13 63656.1306 63656.13 0.0925697
-51106.59 673767.58 38089.5847 38089.58 0.0599196
2683.59 588380.37 -66407.633 66407.63 0.1014185
650830.83 -39976.172 39976.17 0.0578688
total 1283608.16 1.8384223
mad 55809.050383
mape 7.993%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


0 640500 0 0
31165.56 640500 -38476 38476 0.0566677
17967.45 706293.96 16293.96 16293.96 0.0236144
38560.21 709596.85 -25423.152 25423.15 0.0345884
16141.11 771037.89 27677.89 27677.89 0.0372335
-43563.10 762268.90 73708.9033 73708.90 0.1070479
-623.21 652367.79 -53012.207 53012.21 0.0751541
27357.78 699455.57 -34544.43 34544.43 0.0470633
-27190.32 757903.34 67343.3359 67343.34 0.0975199
-2245.57 670104.01 -30795.99 30795.99 0.0439378
38177.62 695574.83 -49905.171 49905.17 0.0669437
-10962.73 778667.10 60667.0995 60667.10 0.0844946
17756.65 713103.98 -35456.024 35456.02 0.0473656
-18281.10 762771.04 44491.0431 44491.04 0.0619411
-14820.78 704448.00 -4271.9951 4272.00 0.0060278
-36444.56 693472.02 26696.0171 26696.02 0.0400375
17888.59 633001.04 -67077.956 67077.96 0.0958148
82191.42 711259.79 -79386.209 79386.21 0.1004068
-88356.35 864898.79 210552.795 210552.79 0.3217759
31307.44 587044.93 -147733.07 147733.07 0.2010581
-20254.03 751312.13 63656.1306 63656.13 0.0925697
-51106.59 673767.58 38089.5847 38089.58 0.0599196
2683.59 588380.37 -66407.633 66407.63 0.1014185
35064.29 650830.83 -39976.172 39976.17 0.0578688
721873.67 65317.6734 65317.67 0.0994853
total 1301642.77 1.8604694
mad 56593.163745
mape 8.089%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


0 678976 0 0
8929.44 678976 -11024 11024 0.0159768
39055.74 697827.04 -37192.96 37192.96 0.0506013
17188.62 770356.44 26996.4416 26996.44 0.0363168
-43308.87 763248.26 74688.2641 74688.26 0.1084702
-654.24 652719.95 -52660.048 52660.05 0.0746549
27323.36 699459.76 -34540.24 34540.24 0.0470575
-27197.20 757869.34 67309.3351 67309.34 0.0974707
-2244.12 670093.73 -30806.269 30806.27 0.0439524
38178.72 695575.25 -49904.751 49904.75 0.0669431
-10962.56 778668.25 60668.249 60668.25 0.0844962
17756.59 713104.27 -35455.733 35455.73 0.0473653
-18281.13 762771.01 44491.0126 44491.01 0.061941
-14820.79 704447.97 -4272.0331 4272.03 0.0060278
-36444.55 693472.01 26696.0091 26696.01 0.0400374
17888.59 633001.05 -67077.954 67077.95 0.0958148
82191.42 711259.79 -79386.208 79386.21 0.1004068
-88356.35 864898.80 210552.795 210552.80 0.3217759
31307.44 587044.93 -147733.07 147733.07 0.2010581
-20254.03 751312.13 63656.1306 63656.13 0.0925697
-51106.59 673767.58 38089.5847 38089.58 0.0599196
2683.59 588380.37 -66407.633 66407.63 0.1014185
35064.29 650830.83 -39976.172 39976.17 0.0578688
-17843.02 721873.67 65317.6734 65317.67 0.0994853
645244.74 -31410.257 31410.26 0.0464199
total 1334902.57 1.9116291
mad 58039.241962
mape 8.311%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


0 690000 0 0
36466.20 690000 -45020 45020 0.06125
17330.60 766984.20 23624.2 23624.2 0.0317803
-43008.75 763053.02 74493.018 74493.02 0.1081867
-581.40 653000.56 -52379.445 52379.44 0.0742571
27314.47 699560.66 -34439.341 34439.34 0.0469201
-27207.06 757870.54 67310.5357 67310.54 0.0974724
-2246.10 670083.99 -30816.011 30816.01 0.0439663
38179.14 695572.30 -49907.697 49907.70 0.0669471
-10962.24 778668.37 60668.369 60668.37 0.0844963
17756.64 713104.60 -35455.403 35455.40 0.0473648
-18281.15 762771.10 44491.0961 44491.10 0.0619412
-14820.80 704447.96 -4272.0418 4272.04 0.0060278
-36444.56 693472.00 26695.9983 26696.00 0.0400374
17888.59 633001.04 -67077.956 67077.96 0.0958148
82191.42 711259.79 -79386.207 79386.21 0.1004068
-88356.35 864898.80 210552.796 210552.80 0.3217759
31307.44 587044.93 -147733.07 147733.07 0.2010581
-20254.03 751312.13 63656.1306 63656.13 0.0925697
-51106.59 673767.58 38089.5847 38089.58 0.0599196
2683.59 588380.37 -66407.633 66407.63 0.1014185
35064.29 650830.83 -39976.172 39976.17 0.0578688
-17843.02 721873.67 65317.6734 65317.67 0.0994853
7599.28 645244.74 -31410.257 31410.26 0.0464199
681113.26 -57786.742 57786.74 0.0782064
total 1359180.63 1.947385
mad 59094.810193
mape 8.467%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


0 735020 0 0
6755.40 735020 -8340 8340 0.0112193
-42428.93 749281.40 60721.4 60721.4 0.0881861
644.27 652203.21 -53176.794 53176.79 0.0753874
27611.93 700706.59 -33293.41 33293.41 0.0453589
-27243.37 758282.59 67722.5904 67722.59 0.0980691
-2286.37 670088.89 -30811.108 30811.11 0.0439593
38171.09 695532.52 -49947.48 49947.48 0.0670004
-10960.55 778656.34 60656.3415 60656.34 0.0844796
17757.93 713105.09 -35454.913 35454.91 0.0473642
-18280.94 762772.44 44492.4411 44492.44 0.061943
-14820.87 704448.30 -4271.7008 4271.70 0.0060273
-36444.60 693471.96 26695.9627 26695.96 0.0400374
17888.58 633001.00 -67078.001 67078.00 0.0958149
82191.42 711259.78 -79386.216 79386.22 0.1004068
-88356.35 864898.80 210552.797 210552.80 0.3217759
31307.44 587044.93 -147733.07 147733.07 0.2010581
-20254.03 751312.13 63656.1308 63656.13 0.0925697
-51106.59 673767.58 38089.5846 38089.58 0.0599196
2683.59 588380.37 -66407.634 66407.63 0.1014185
35064.29 650830.83 -39976.172 39976.17 0.0578688
-17843.02 721873.67 65317.6734 65317.67 0.0994853
7599.28 645244.74 -31410.257 31410.26 0.0464199
54406.54 681113.26 -57786.742 57786.74 0.0782064
787527.87
total 1342978.42 1.9239761
mad 58390.365976
mape 8.365%
alpha 0.1
Dengan Data Acuan 12 Bulan

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


jan 2016 706,480.00 706,480.00 706480 0 706480
feb 2016 690,876.00 690,876.00 704919.60 -156.04 706480
mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00 705276.00 -104.80 704763.56
apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 703354.09 -286.51 705171.21
mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 702630.82 -330.18 703067.58
1 jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 704070.57 -153.19 702300.64
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 710415.65 496.64 703917.38
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 717911.05 1196.51 710912.28
sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00 707206.81 6.44 719107.57
okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00 700541.92 -660.69 707213.25
nov 2016 678,976.00 678,976.00 697790.71 -869.75 699881.23
des 2016 690,000.00 690,000.00 696228.86 -938.96 696920.96
jan 2017 735,020.00 735,020.00 695289.91
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 690876 0 690876
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 692777.20 190.12 690876
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 692370.59 130.45 692967.32
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 693120.93 192.44 692501.03
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 695982.03 459.30 693313.37
2 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 703687.20 1183.89 696441.33
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 712473.98 1944.18 704871.09
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 702986.34 801.00 714418.16
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 697458.61 168.12 703787.34
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 695761.66 -18.38 697626.73
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 695168.95 -75.82 695743.27
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 699085.82 323.45 695093.13
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 699409.27
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 709888 0 709888
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 707599.20 -228.88 709888
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 706503.29 -315.58 707370.32
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 707568.93 -177.46 706187.70
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 713542.33 437.63 707391.47
3 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 720671.96 1106.83 713979.95
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 709610.90 -109.96 721778.78
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 702600.85 -799.97 709500.94
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 699518.39 -1028.22 701800.88
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 697641.15 -1113.12 698490.17
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 700377.23 -728.20 696528.03
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 704020.12 -291.09 699649.02
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 703729.03
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 687000 0 687000
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 688170.00 117.00 687000
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 691458.30 434.13 688287
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 699593.19 1204.21 691892.43
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 708807.65 2005.23 700797.39
4 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 699741.60 898.10 710812.89
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 694625.73 296.71 700639.70
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 693327.79 137.24 694922.44
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 693118.53 102.59 693465.03
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 697401.01 520.58 693221.12
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 702465.43 974.96 697921.59
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 701952.36 826.16 703440.39
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 702778.52
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 698700 0 698700
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 700830.00 213.00 698700
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 707828.70 891.57 701043
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 715938.24 1613.37 708720.27
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 705806.45 438.85 717551.61
5 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 699670.77 -218.60 706245.30
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 697404.55 -423.36 699452.17
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 696283.07 -493.18 696981.19
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 699712.90 -100.87 695789.89
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 703986.83 336.61 699612.03
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 702747.09 178.97 704323.43
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 703171.45 203.51 702926.06
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 703374.96
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 720000 0 720000
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 724890.00 489.00 720000
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 730931.10 1044.21 725379
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 718787.78 -274.54 731975.31
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 710711.91 -1054.68 718513.24
6 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 706589.11 -1361.49 709657.24
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 703704.86 -1513.76 705227.63
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 705473.99 -1185.48 702191.10
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 708195.66 -794.76 704288.51
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705516.81 -983.17 707400.90
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 704618.28 -974.71 704533.64
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 706679.22 -671.14 703643.57
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 706008.07
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 768900 0 768900
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 770100.00 120.00 768900
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 753208.00 -1581.20 770220
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 740514.12 -2692.47 751626.80
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 731937.09 -3280.92 737821.65
7 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 724790.55 -3667.49 728656.16
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 722512.75 -3528.52 721123.06
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 721421.81 -3284.76 718984.24
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 715179.35 -3580.53 718137.05
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 710976.94 -3642.72 711598.82
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 710000.80 -3376.06 707334.22
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705018.26 -3536.71 706624.74
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 701481.56
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780900 0 780900
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 762820.00 -1808.00 780900
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 748960.80 -3013.12 761012
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 739250.51 -3682.84 745947.68
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 731010.91 -4138.51 735567.68
8 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 727687.15 -4057.04 726872.39
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 725603.11 -3859.74 723630.12
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 718425.03 -4191.57 721743.37
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 713348.11 -4280.11 714233.46
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 711561.20 -4030.79 709068.01
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705833.38 -4200.49 707530.42
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 701559.60 -4207.82 701632.88
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 697351.78
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 600100 0 600100
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 604140.00 404.00 600100
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 611987.20 1148.32 604544
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 620821.97 1916.96 613135.52
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 633967.04 3039.78 622738.93
9 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 647642.13 4103.31 637006.81
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 655426.90 4471.45 651745.44
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 664446.51 4926.27 659898.35
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 675835.51 5572.54 669372.78
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 682323.24 5664.06 681408.05
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 689278.57 5793.19 687987.30
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 700112.59 6297.27 695071.76
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 706409.86
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 640500 0 640500
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 644347.60 384.76 640500
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 649259.12 837.44 644732.36
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 658588.90 1686.67 650096.56
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 668584.02 2517.52 660275.58
10 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 672847.38 2692.10 671101.53
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 678523.53 2990.50 675539.48
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 686762.63 3515.36 681514.04
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 690306.20 3518.18 690278.00
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 694531.94 3588.94 693824.38
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 702856.80 4062.53 698120.88
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 708027.40 4173.34 706919.33
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 712200.73
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 678976 0 678976
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 680078.40 110.24 678976
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 685671.78 658.55 680188.64
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 692033.30 1228.85 686330.33
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 692791.93 1181.83 693262.15
11 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 695114.38 1295.89 693973.76
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 700169.25 1671.79 696410.28
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 700712.93 1558.98 701841.04
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 702134.72 1545.26 702271.91
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 707859.98 1963.26 703679.98
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 710640.92 2045.03 709823.24
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 716273.35 2403.77 712685.94
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 718677.12
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690000 0 690000
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 694502.00 450.20 690000
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 699792.98 934.28 694952.2
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 699510.53 812.61 700727.26
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700828.82 863.17 700323.14
12 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 704922.80 1186.25 701692.00
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 704554.15 1030.76 706109.05
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 705116.42 983.91 705584.91
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 710038.30 1377.71 706100.33
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 712074.41 1443.55 711416.01
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 717022.17 1793.97 713517.96
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 718762.52 1788.61 718816.14
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 720551.13
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 735020 0 735020
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 735854.00 83.40 735020
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 731199.66 -390.37 735937.4
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 728266.36 -644.67 730809.29
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 728259.52 -580.88 727621.69
13 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 723966.77 -952.07 727678.64
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 720803.23 -1173.22 723014.70
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 722215.01 -914.72 719630.02
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 720970.27 -947.72 721300.30
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 722876.29 -662.35 720022.55
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 721820.55 -701.69 722213.95
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 719878.98 -825.67 721118.87
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 719053.31
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 743360 0 743360
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 737880.00 -548.00 743360
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 734136.80 -867.52 737332
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 733342.35 -860.21 733269.28
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 728289.93 -1279.43 732482.14
14 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 724399.44 -1540.54 727010.49
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 725121.01 -1314.33 722858.90
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 723226.02 -1372.39 723806.68
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 724524.26 -1105.33 721853.62
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 722905.03 -1156.72 723418.93
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 720445.48 -1287.00 721748.31
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 713920.23 -1810.83 719158.48
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 712109.40
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 688560 0 688560
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 690242.00 168.20 688560
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 694769.18 604.10 690410.2
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 694891.95 555.97 695373.28
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 695993.12 610.49 695447.92
15 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 701491.25 1099.25 696603.61
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 704131.45 1253.34 702590.50
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 709702.31 1685.10 705384.79
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 712076.67 1754.02 711387.41
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 713319.62 1702.92 713830.69
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 710197.89 1220.45 715022.54
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 710284.40 1107.06 711418.34
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 711391.46
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 705380 0 705380
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 708242.00 286.20 705380
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 706731.38 106.52 708528.2
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 706244.11 47.14 706837.90
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 710210.12 439.03 706291.25
16 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 711384.23 512.54 710649.15
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 715563.09 879.17 711896.77
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 716626.03 897.54 716442.26
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 716643.22 809.51 717523.58
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 712385.06 302.74 717452.73
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 711426.92 176.65 712687.80
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 719507.81 967.08 711603.57
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 720474.89
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 734000 0 734000
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 729656.00 -434.40 734000
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 726389.44 -717.62 729221.6
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 727652.64 -519.53 725671.82
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 726219.80 -610.87 727133.11
17 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 727904.04 -381.35 725608.93
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 726598.42 -473.78 727522.68
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 724384.17 -647.83 726124.63
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 718040.31 -1217.43 723736.34
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 715148.49 -1384.87 716822.88
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 721451.86 -616.05 713763.62
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 714186.83 -1280.94 720835.81
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 712905.89
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 690560 0 690560
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 691594.00 103.40 690560
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 697075.66 641.23 691697.4
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 699745.20 844.06 697716.89
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 705386.33 1323.76 700589.25
18 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 707867.08 1439.46 706710.09
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709247.89 1433.60 709306.55
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 706290.94 994.54 710681.49
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 706564.84 922.48 707285.49
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 715803.18 1754.07 707487.32
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 711236.12 1121.95 717557.25
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 714600.07 1346.15 712358.08
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 715946.22
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 700900 0 700900
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 705358.00 445.80 700900
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 707023.42 567.76 705803.8
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 711688.06 977.45 707591.18
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 713226.96 1033.60 712665.51
19 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 713706.50 978.19 714260.56
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 709893.82 499.10 714684.69
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 709361.53 395.96 710392.92
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 717846.35 1204.85 709757.50
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 712580.67 557.80 719051.19
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 715302.42 774.19 713138.47
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 713234.55 489.99 716076.62
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 713724.54
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 745480 0 745480
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 742732.00 -274.80 745480
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 743067.48 -213.77 742457.2
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 740396.34 -459.51 742853.71
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 736815.15 -771.68 739936.83
19 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 729116.72 -1464.35 736043.47
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 724895.03 -1740.09 727652.37
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 729904.05 -1065.18 723154.95
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 721389.59 -1810.10 728838.88
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 721099.34 -1658.12 719579.48
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 716262.70 -1975.97 719441.22
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 706425.85 -2762.06 714286.72
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 703663.79
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 718000 0 718000
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 721056.00 305.60 718000
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 721053.44 274.78 721361.6
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 720067.40 148.70 721328.22
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 714872.09 -385.70 720216.10
20 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 713045.65 -529.77 714486.39
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 720328.89 251.53 712515.88
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 713956.98 -410.82 720580.42
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 715669.35 -198.50 713546.16
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 712689.36 -476.65 715470.85
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 704559.25 -1241.99 712212.72
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 698464.33 -1727.29 703317.25
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 696737.04
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 718000 0 718000
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 721056.00 305.60 718000
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 721053.44 274.78 721361.6
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 720067.40 148.70 721328.22
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 714872.09 -385.70 720216.10
20 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 713045.65 -529.77 714486.39
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 720328.89 251.53 712515.88
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 713956.98 -410.82 720580.42
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 715669.35 -198.50 713546.16
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 712689.36 -476.65 715470.85
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 704559.25 -1241.99 712212.72
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 698464.33 -1727.29 703317.25
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 696737.04
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 748560 0 748560
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 745532.00 -302.80 748560
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 741578.28 -667.89 745229.2
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 733496.95 -1409.24 740910.39
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 728886.84 -1729.32 732087.71
20 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 733506.37 -1094.44 727157.52
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 724605.34 -1875.10 732411.93
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 723935.01 -1754.62 722730.24
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 718727.96 -2099.86 722180.39
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 708533.08 -2909.36 716628.09
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 700540.15 -3417.72 705623.72
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 696490.88 -3480.88 697122.42
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 693010.01
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 718280 0 718280
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717324.00 -95.60 718280
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 712183.16 -600.12 717228.4
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 710432.63 -715.16 711583.04
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 717810.32 94.12 709717.47
21 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 711548.60 -541.46 717904.44
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 713384.22 -303.75 711007.13
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 710538.02 -558.00 713080.47
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 702549.82 -1301.02 709980.02
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 696602.72 -1765.63 701248.80
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 694434.08 -1805.93 694837.09
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 689020.94 -2166.65 692628.15
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 686854.29
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708720 0 708720
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 704525.60 -419.44 708720
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 703703.44 -459.71 704106.16
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 711983.96 414.31 703243.73
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 706593.04 -166.21 712398.27
22 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 709261.95 117.30 706426.83
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 707206.92 -99.93 709379.25
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 699964.09 -814.22 707106.99
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 694713.68 -1257.84 699149.87
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 693190.96 -1284.33 693455.84
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 688371.57 -1637.84 691906.63
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 685725.86 -1738.62 686733.73
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 683987.23
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan


jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 666776 0 666776
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 670106.30 333.03 666776
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 682460.00 1535.10 670439.33
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 681030.18 1238.61 683995.09
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 687519.71 1763.70 682268.79
23 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 689120.67 1747.42 689283.41
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 685349.08 1195.52 690868.09
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 683368.94 877.96 686544.61
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 684902.91 943.56 684246.90
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 682917.42 650.65 685846.47
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 682876.77 581.52 683568.08
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 689002.46 1135.94 683458.29
jan 2019 690138.40
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.2
Dengan Data Acuan 12 Bulan

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 jan 2016
-15604 15604 0.0225858186 feb 2016
5124.44 5124.44 0.0072186598 mar 2016
-18171.2084 18171.21 0.026450085 apr 2016
-4367.579876 4367.58 0.0062510088 mei 2016
17699.361594 17699.36 0.0245824467 jun 2016
64982.615302 64982.62 0.0845137408 jul 2016
69987.717485 69987.72 0.0896244301 ags 2016
-119007.56772 119007.57 0.1983128941 sep 2016
-66713.248736 66713.25 0.1041580777 okt 2016
-20905.229159 20905.23 0.0307893492 nov 2016
-6920.9592475 6920.96 0.0100303757 des 2016
39730.093265 39730.09 0.0540530778 jan 2017
409483.93 0.6045168865 tota
37225.81159 mad
5.496% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 feb 2016
19012 19012 0.0267816895 mar 2016
-5967.32 5967.32 0.0086860553 apr 2016
6198.9652 6198.97 0.0088721414 mei 2016
26686.632228 26686.63 0.037064767 jun 2016
72458.666231 72458.67 0.0942367879 jul 2016
76028.910171 76028.91 0.0973606226 ags 2016
-114318.15938 114318.16 0.1904985159 sep 2016
-63287.34039 63287.34 0.0988092746 okt 2016
-18650.729892 18650.73 0.0274689089 nov 2016
-5743.2731442 5743.27 0.0083235843 des 2016
39926.87066 39926.87 0.0543207949 jan 2017
43950.731377 43950.73 0.0591244234 feb 2017
448278.87 0.6524231423 tota
40752.6243 mad
5.931% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 mar 2016
-22888 22888 0.0333158661 apr 2016
-8670.32 8670.32 0.0124092171 mei 2016
13812.2952 13812.30 0.0191837433 jun 2016
61508.525928 61508.53 0.0799954818 jul 2016
66920.048324 66920.05 0.0856960537 ags 2016
-121678.782 121678.78 0.202764176 sep 2016
-69000.941477 69000.94 0.1077298071 okt 2016
-22824.875589 22824.88 0.0336166162 nov 2016
-8490.1675341 8490.17 0.0123045906 des 2016
38491.971391 38491.97 0.0523686041 jan 2017
43710.976709 43710.98 0.0588018951 feb 2017
-15169.028271 15169.03 0.0220300748 mar 2017
477996.90 0.6981860511 tota
43454.26401 mad
6.347% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 apr 2016
11700 11700 0.0167453843 mei 2016
31713 31713 0.0440458333 jun 2016
77007.57 77007.57 0.1001529067 jul 2016
80102.6073 80102.61 0.102577292 ags 2016
-110712.8852 110712.89 0.1844907269 sep 2016
-60139.699604 60139.70 0.0938949252 okt 2016
-15946.435568 15946.44 0.0234860077 nov 2016
-3465.0335807 3465.03 0.0050217878 des 2016
41798.878544 41798.88 0.0568676751 jan 2017
45438.410671 45438.41 0.0611257139 feb 2017
-14880.394522 14880.39 0.0216108902 mar 2017
2601.4847498 2601.48 0.0036880614 apr 2017
492904.91 0.7100191431 tota
44809.53773 mad
6.455% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 mei 2016
21300 21300 0.0295833333 jun 2016
67857 67857 0.0882520484 jul 2016
72179.73 72179.73 0.0924314637 ags 2016
-117451.6103 117451.61 0.1957200638 sep 2016
-65745.300467 65745.30 0.1026468391 okt 2016
-20476.168613 20476.17 0.0301574262 nov 2016
-6981.1882576 6981.19 0.0101176641 des 2016
39230.105945 39230.11 0.0533728415 jan 2017
43747.969667 43747.97 0.0588516596 feb 2017
-15763.432679 15763.43 0.022893332 mar 2017
2453.9395356 2453.94 0.0034788902 apr 2017
30625.035134 30625.04 0.0417234811 mei 2017
473186.45 0.6875055619 tota
43016.94959 mad
6.250% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 jun 2016
48900 48900 0.0635973469 jul 2016
55521 55521 0.0710987322 ags 2016
-131875.31 131875.31 0.2197555574 sep 2016
-78013.2359 78013.24 0.1218005244 okt 2016
-30681.236851 30681.24 0.045187513 nov 2016
-15227.625338 15227.63 0.0220690222 des 2016
32828.901276 32828.90 0.0446639565 jan 2017
39071.486217 39071.49 0.0525606519 feb 2017
-18840.902199 18840.90 0.0273627603 mar 2017
846.35724896 846.36 0.00119986 apr 2017
30356.42718 30356.43 0.0413575302 mei 2017
-15448.074155 15448.07 0.0223703576 jun 2017
482162.48 0.7106534551 tota
43832.95293 mad
6.460% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 jul 2016
12000 12000 0.0153668844 ags 2016
-170120 170120 0.2834860857 sep 2016
-111126.8 111126.80 0.1735000781 okt 2016
-58845.652 58845.65 0.0866682357 nov 2016
-38656.16228 38656.16 0.0560234236 des 2016
13896.940091 13896.94 0.018906887 jan 2017
24375.762824 24375.76 0.0327913297 feb 2017
-29577.054345 29577.05 0.0429549412 mar 2017
-6218.8192535 6218.82 0.0088162682 apr 2017
26665.780522 26665.78 0.0363294013 mei 2017
-16064.737486 16064.74 0.0232633478 jun 2017
-581.5563183 581.56 0.0008297279 jul 2017
507547.71 0.7781068826 tota
46140.7008 mad
7.074% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 ags 2016
-180800 180800 0.3012831195 sep 2016
-120512 120512 0.1881530055 okt 2016
-66971.68 66971.68 0.0986362994 nov 2016
-45567.6752 45567.68 0.066040109 des 2016
8147.605872 8147.61 0.0110848764 jan 2017
19729.882778 19729.88 0.026541491 feb 2017
-33183.366834 33183.37 0.0481924115 mar 2017
-8853.457817 8853.46 0.0125513309 apr 2017
24931.994877 24931.99 0.0339672955 mei 2017
-16970.417648 16970.42 0.0245748634 jun 2017
-732.8847432 732.88 0.0010456338 jul 2017
48128.223718 48128.22 0.0645600468 ags 2017
526400.97 0.8120704358 tota
47854.63325 mad
7.382% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 sep 2016
40400 40400 0.0630757221 okt 2016
74432 74432 0.1096239042 nov 2016
76864.48 76864.48 0.1113977971 des 2016
112281.0672 112281.07 0.1527592 jan 2017
106353.18501 106353.19 0.1430709011 feb 2017
36814.559185 36814.56 0.0534660149 mar 2017
45481.650353 45481.65 0.064478225 apr 2017
64627.2159 64627.22 0.0880479781 mei 2017
9151.9527335 9151.95 0.0132529436 jun 2017
12912.696356 12912.70 0.0184230223 jul 2017
50408.238653 50408.24 0.067618499 ags 2017
11590.144334 11590.14 0.0161422623 sep 2017
629727.05 0.8852142074 tota
57247.91322 mad
8.047% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 okt 2016
38476 38476 0.0566676878 nov 2016
45267.64 45267.64 0.0656052754 des 2016
84923.4396 84923.44 0.1155389508 jan 2017
83084.424844 83084.42 0.1117687592 feb 2017
17458.467315 17458.47 0.0253550414 mar 2017
29840.520866 29840.52 0.0423041777 apr 2017
52485.963853 52485.96 0.0715067627 mei 2017
282.00290309 282.00 0.0004083684 jun 2017
7075.618019 7075.62 0.0100950464 jul 2017
47359.115443 47359.12 0.0635283515 ags 2017
11080.67197 11080.67 0.0154326908 sep 2017
36359.266125 36359.27 0.0485722803 okt 2017
417333.86 0.5782111121 tota
37939.44226 mad
5.256% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 nov 2016
11024 11024 0.0159768116 des 2016
54831.36 54831.36 0.0745984599 jan 2017
57029.6704 57029.67 0.0767187774 feb 2017
-4702.146944 4702.15 0.0068289575 mar 2017
11406.238916 11406.24 0.0161703464 apr 2017
37589.723801 37589.72 0.0512121578 mei 2017
-11281.037041 11281.04 0.0163360708 jun 2017
-1371.9114284 1371.91 0.0019573569 jul 2017
41800.020737 41800.02 0.0560712839 ags 2017
8176.7594792 8176.76 0.0113882444 sep 2017
35874.056752 35874.06 0.0479240899 okt 2017
-397.1162698 397.12 0.0005528711 nov 2017
275086.93 0.3751825564 tota
25007.90232 mad
3.411% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 des 2016
45020 45020 0.061250034 jan 2017
48407.8 48407.8 0.0651202647 feb 2017
-12167.258 12167.26 0.017670585 mar 2017
5056.86238 5056.86 0.0071689903 apr 2017
32308.002098 32308.00 0.0440163516 mei 2017
-15549.052176 15549.05 0.0225165839 jun 2017
-4684.9105018 4684.91 0.0066841354 jul 2017
39379.66611 39379.67 0.0528245776 ags 2017
6583.9884003 6583.99 0.0091699003 sep 2017
35042.038577 35042.04 0.0468125983 okt 2017
-536.13664947 536.14 0.0007464173 nov 2017
-11831.132987 11831.13 0.0166936632 des 2017
244735.71 0.3339804385 tota
22248.70135 mad
3.036% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 jan 2017
8340 8340 0.0112193285 feb 2017
-47377.4 47377.4 0.0688064947 mar 2017
-25429.286 25429.29 0.0360504778 apr 2017
6378.30946 6378.31 0.0086897949 mei 2017
-37118.637721 37118.64 0.0537515027 jun 2017
-22114.703806 22114.70 0.0315518673 jul 2017
25849.983755 25849.98 0.0346756234 ags 2017
-3300.2972771 3300.30 0.0045965143 sep 2017
28537.452766 28537.45 0.0381231334 okt 2017
-3933.9467219 3933.95 0.0054768986 nov 2017
-12398.866794 12398.87 0.0174947325 des 2017
-52277.306191 52277.31 0.0784031012 jan 2018
220778.88 0.3104363681 tota
20070.80766 mad
2.822% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 feb 2017
-54800 54800 0.0795863832 mar 2017
-31952 31952 0.0452975701 apr 2017
730.72 730.72 0.0009955313 mei 2017
-41922.1392 41922.14 0.0607074537 jun 2017
-26110.491088 26110.49 0.0372528051 jul 2017
22621.097124 22621.10 0.030344338 ags 2017
-5806.684457 5806.68 0.0080873043 sep 2017
26706.378965 26706.38 0.0356770051 okt 2017
-5138.927745 5138.93 0.0071544909 nov 2017
-13028.314507 13028.31 0.0183828797 des 2017
-52382.479447 52382.48 0.0785608352 jan 2018
-12030.403099 12030.40 0.0171843508 feb 2018
281199.23 0.4020465966 tota
25563.56659 mad
3.655% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 mar 2017
16820 16820 0.0238453032 apr 2017
43589.8 43589.8 0.0593866485 mei 2017
-4813.278 4813.28 0.0069701083 jun 2017
5452.08458 5452.08 0.0077786911 jul 2017
48876.390056 48876.39 0.0655636503 ags 2017
15409.501084 15409.50 0.0214617007 sep 2017
43175.205999 43175.21 0.0576776825 okt 2017
6892.5883615 6892.59 0.0095959631 nov 2017
-5110.6933954 5110.69 0.0072111601 des 2017
-48246.540043 48246.54 0.0723579434 jan 2018
-11339.336625 11339.34 0.0161972243 feb 2018
79254.539817 79254.54 0.1002402337 mar 2018
249725.42 0.3480460755 tota
22702.31074 mad
3.164% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 apr 2017
28620 28620 0.0389918256 mei 2017
-17968.2 17968.2 0.0260197521 jun 2017
-5937.898 5937.90 0.0084718191 jul 2017
39188.75278 39188.75 0.0525684831 ags 2017
7350.8509542 7350.85 0.010237954 sep 2017
36663.230801 36663.23 0.0489783462 okt 2017
1837.7403559 1837.74 0.0025585292 nov 2017
-8803.5784486 8803.58 0.0124218005 des 2017
-50676.729588 50676.73 0.07600263 jan 2018
-12608.798318 12608.80 0.0180105364 feb 2018
79042.427809 79042.43 0.0999719569 mar 2018
-66128.892956 66128.89 0.1010610487 apr 2018
288698.21 0.3942336329 tota
26245.29155 mad
3.584% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 mei 2017
-43440 43440 0.062905468 jun 2017
-28321.6 28321.6 0.0404074761 jul 2017
19808.176 19808.18 0.0265710361 ags 2017
-9133.10736 9133.11 0.0127202052 sep 2017
22951.06869 22951.07 0.0306602927 okt 2017
-9242.6835527 9242.68 0.0128678002 nov 2017
-17404.633735 17404.63 0.0245578419 des 2017
-56960.342562 56960.34 0.0854265039 jan 2018
-16743.877081 16743.88 0.0239171252 feb 2018
76882.380623 76882.38 0.0972399539 mar 2018
-66489.811249 66489.81 0.1016126197 apr 2018
21872.114178 21872.11 0.0297669693 may 2018
367377.68 0.518886323 tota
33397.97099 mad
4.717% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 jun 2017
10340 10340 0.0147524611 jul 2017
53782.6 53782.6 0.0721449268 ags 2017
20283.114 20283.11 0.0282494624 sep 2017
47970.74546 47970.75 0.0640840353 okt 2017
11569.906319 11569.91 0.0161077941 nov 2017
-586.54797033 586.55 0.0008276159 des 2017
-43905.491351 43905.49 0.065847438 jan 2018
-7206.4854808 7206.49 0.0102938175 feb 2018
83158.684657 83158.68 0.1051781514 mar 2018
-63211.249065 63211.25 0.0966021785 apr 2018
22419.923076 22419.92 0.0305125127 may 2018
-28290.221228 28290.22 0.0411400776 jun 2018
364434.75 0.5046003937 tota
33130.43158 mad
4.587% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 jul 2017
44580 44580 0.0598003971 ags 2017
12196.2 12196.2 0.016986351 sep 2017
40968.818 40968.82 0.0547301726 okt 2017
5614.48602 5614.49 0.0078165702 nov 2017
-5540.5576222 5540.56 0.0078176962 des 2017
-47908.691324 47908.69 0.0718512534 jan 2018
-10313.924742 10313.92 0.0147325155 feb 2018
80888.504429 80888.50 0.1023068534 mar 2018
-64705.194362 64705.19 0.0988852906 apr 2018
21639.52867 21639.53 0.0294504308 may 2018
-28420.615887 28420.62 0.0413296996 jun 2018
-78046.53983 78046.54 0.1227768459 jul 2018
362776.52 0.5057072303 tota
32979.68373 mad
4.597% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 ags 2017
-27480 27480 0.0382729805 sep 2017
6102.8 6102.8 0.0081527199 okt 2017
-24573.708 24573.71 0.0342118784 nov 2017
-31216.82812 31216.83 0.0440467718 des 2017
-69267.467947 69267.47 0.1038841649 jan 2018
-27573.369111 27573.37 0.0393860823 feb 2018
67491.053531 67491.05 0.0853619111 mar 2018
-74492.876625 74492.88 0.1138432521 apr 2018
15198.515 15198.52 0.0206844993 may 2018
-31785.217687 31785.22 0.0462225556 jun 2018
-78608.724929 78608.72 0.1236612325 jul 2018
-48875.794197 48875.79 0.0746436926 aug 2018
453790.56 0.6577280483 tota
41253.68736 mad
5.979% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 sep 2017
30560 30560 0.0408250508 okt 2017
-3081.6 3081.6 0.0042902489 nov 2017
-12608.224 12608.22 0.0177901343 des 2017
-53440.10336 53440.10 0.0801470109 jan 2018
-14407.39375 14407.39 0.0205796685 feb 2018
78130.118836 78130.12 0.0988180789 mar 2018
-66234.421025 66234.42 0.1012223213 apr 2018
21231.83731 21231.84 0.0288955811 may 2018
-27814.848561 27814.85 0.0404487833 jun 2018
-76534.717359 76534.72 0.1203985624 jul 2018
-48529.252104 48529.25 0.0741144494 aug 2018
-5930.0408536 5930.04 0.0085842223 sep 2018
432572.52 0.62752989 tota
39324.77421 mad
5.705% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 sep 2017
30560 30560 0.0408250508 okt 2017
-3081.6 3081.6 0.0042902489 nov 2017
-12608.224 12608.22 0.0177901343 des 2017
-53440.10336 53440.10 0.0801470109 jan 2018
-14407.39375 14407.39 0.0205796685 feb 2018
78130.118836 78130.12 0.0988180789 mar 2018
-66234.421025 66234.42 0.1012223213 apr 2018
21231.83731 21231.84 0.0288955811 may 2018
-27814.848561 27814.85 0.0404487833 jun 2018
-76534.717359 76534.72 0.1203985624 jul 2018
-48529.252104 48529.25 0.0741144494 aug 2018
-5930.0408536 5930.04 0.0085842223 sep 2018
432572.52 0.62752989 tota
39324.77421 mad
5.705% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 okt 2017
-30280 30280 0.0421562622 nov 2017
-36509.2 36509.2 0.0515142793 des 2017
-74134.388 74134.39 0.1111833479 jan 2018
-32008.71332 32008.71 0.0457215733 feb 2018
63488.481025 63488.48 0.0802995032 mar 2018
-78065.928874 78065.93 0.1193037458 apr 2018
12047.761505 12047.76 0.0163964647 may 2018
-34524.394769 34524.39 0.0502059093 jun 2018
-80950.091468 80950.09 0.1273444912 jul 2018
-50835.717582 50835.72 0.0776369109 aug 2018
-6315.423909 6315.42 0.009142096 sep 2018
-36454.005364 36454.01 0.0555230709 oct 2018
499160.10 0.7309045837 tota
45378.19095 mad
6.645% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 nov 2017
-9560 9560 0.0134891071 des 2017
-50452.4 50452.4 0.0756661907 jan 2018
-11504.036 11504.04 0.0164324826 feb 2018
80928.53196 80928.53 0.1023574798 mar 2018
-63558.442196 63558.44 0.0971327741 apr 2018
23770.865486 23770.87 0.0323510849 may 2018
-25424.466255 25424.47 0.0369726524 jun 2018
-74302.020159 74302.02 0.116886254 jul 2018
-46460.798472 46460.80 0.0709554825 aug 2018
-4030.0909682 4030.09 0.0058338884 sep 2018
-36072.153305 36072.15 0.0549414723 oct 2018
-10199.287876 10199.29 0.0150730991 nov 2018
426063.80 0.638091968 tota
38733.07316 mad
5.801% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 des 2017
-41944 41944 0.0629056835 jan 2018
-4027.16 4027.16 0.0057524365 feb 2018
87402.2676 87402.27 0.1105453864 mar 2018
-58052.270236 58052.27 0.0887180028 apr 2018
28351.168414 28351.17 0.0385846724 may 2018
-21723.248485 21723.25 0.0315902842 jun 2018
-71428.99121 71428.99 0.1123666246 jul 2018
-44361.869749 44361.87 0.0677499737 aug 2018
-2648.8417379 2648.84 0.0038344165 sep 2018
-35350.62811 35350.63 0.0538425178 oct 2018
-10078.729564 10078.73 0.014894931 nov 2018
54912.766423 54912.77 0.0743169122 dec 2018
405369.18 0.5907849294 tota
36851.74319 mad
5.371% mape

error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


0 0 jan 2018
33303 33303 0.0475703456 feb 2018
120206.67 120206.67 0.1520360186 mar 2018
-29649.0937 29649.09 0.0453110338 apr 2018
52509.209907 52509.21 0.0714626866 may 2018
-1627.4089458 1627.41 0.0023666033 jun 2018
-55190.091824 55190.09 0.0868208304 jul 2018
-31756.605496 31756.61 0.0484990646 aug 2018
6560.0982544 6560.10 0.0094962823 sep 2018
-29290.469353 29290.47 0.0446122941 oct 2018
-6913.0755062 6913.08 0.0102165439 nov 2018
55441.709711 55441.71 0.0750327645 dec 2018
jan 2019
422447.43 0.5934244676 tota
38404.31206 mad
5.395% mape
QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|
706,480.00 706,480.00 706480 0 706480 0 0
690,876.00 690,876.00 703359.20 -624.16 706480 -15604 15604
709,888.00 709,888.00 704165.63 -338.04 702735.04 7152.96 7152.96
687,000.00 687,000.00 700462.07 -1011.15 703827.59 -16827.5904 16827.59
698,700.00 698,700.00 699300.74 -1041.18 699450.93 -750.927104 750.93
720,000.00 720,000.00 702607.65 -171.56 698259.56 21740.4406 21740.44
768,900.00 768,900.00 715728.87 2486.99 702436.08 66463.9172 66463.92
780,900.00 780,900.00 730752.69 4994.36 718215.86 62684.1417 62684.14
600,100.00 600,100.00 708617.64 -431.52 735747.04 -135647.044 135647.04
640,500.00 640,500.00 694648.89 -3138.97 708186.11 -67686.1113 67686.11
678,976.00 678,976.00 689003.14 -3640.33 691509.92 -12533.9205 12533.92
690,000.00 690,000.00 686290.25 -3454.84 685362.81 4637.18894 4637.19
735,020.00 735,020.00 682835.41 52184.589 52184.59
total 411728.24
mad 37429.8402
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


690,876.00 690876 690876 0 690876 0 0
709,888.00 709888 694678.40 760.48 690876 19012 19012
687,000.00 687000 693751.10 422.92 695438.88 -8438.88 8438.88
698,700.00 698700 695079.22 603.96 694174.03 4525.9712 4525.97
720,000.00 720000 700546.55 1576.64 695683.19 24316.8133 24316.81
768,900.00 768900 715478.55 4247.71 702123.19 66776.8145 66776.81
780,900.00 780900 731961.01 6694.66 719726.26 61173.7428 61173.74
600,100.00 600100 710944.53 1152.43 738655.66 -138555.664 138555.66
640,500.00 640500 697777.57 -1711.45 712096.96 -71596.9633 71596.96
678,976.00 678976 692648.10 -2395.05 696066.12 -17090.124 17090.12
690,000.00 690000 690202.44 -2405.17 690253.05 -253.047608 253.05
735,020.00 735020 697241.81 -516.26 687797.26 47222.7354 47222.74
743,360.00 743360 696725.55 46634.4524 46634.45
total 458962.76
mad 41723.8869
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


709,888.00 709888 709888 0 709888 0 0
687,000.00 687000 705310.40 -915.52 709888 -22888 22888
698,700.00 698700 703255.90 -1143.32 704394.88 -5694.88 5694.88
720,000.00 720000 705690.07 -427.82 702112.59 17887.4112 17887.41
768,900.00 768900 717989.80 2117.69 705262.25 63637.7477 63637.75
780,900.00 780900 732265.99 4549.39 720107.49 60792.507 60792.51
600,100.00 600100 709472.31 -919.22 736815.39 -136715.386 136715.39
640,500.00 640500 694942.47 -3641.35 708553.08 -68053.0847 68053.08
678,976.00 678976 688836.10 -4134.35 691301.12 -12325.1203 12325.12
690,000.00 690000 685761.40 -3922.42 684701.74 5298.25592 5298.26
735,020.00 735020 692475.18 -1795.18 681838.97 53181.0267 53181.03
743,360.00 743360 701216.00 312.02 690680.00 52680.0022 52680.00
688,560.00 688560 701528.02 -12968.0174 12968.02
total 499153.42
mad 45377.5838
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


687,000.00 687000 687000 0 687000 0 0
698,700.00 698700 689340.00 468.00 687000 11700 11700
720,000.00 720000 695846.40 1675.68 689808 30192 30192
768,900.00 768900 711797.66 4530.80 697522.08 71377.92 71377.92
780,900.00 780900 729242.77 7113.66 716328.46 64571.5392 64571.54
600,100.00 600100 709105.14 1663.40 736356.43 -136256.427 136256.43
640,500.00 640500 696714.83 -1147.34 710768.54 -70268.5429 70268.54
678,976.00 678976 692249.20 -1811.00 695567.49 -16591.4939 16591.49
690,000.00 690000 690350.56 -1828.53 690438.19 -438.194926 438.19
735,020.00 735020 697821.62 31.39 688522.03 46497.972 46497.97
743,360.00 743360 706954.41 1851.67 697853.01 45506.9867 45506.99
688,560.00 688560 704756.86 1041.83 708806.08 -20246.081 20246.08
705,380.00 705380 705798.69 -418.691919 418.69
total 513647.16
mad 46695.1962
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


698,700.00 698700 698700 0 698700 0 0
720,000.00 720000 702960.00 852.00 698700 21300 21300
768,900.00 768900 716829.60 3455.52 703812 65088 65088
780,900.00 780900 732408.10 5880.12 720285.12 60614.88 60614.88
600,100.00 600100 710650.57 352.59 738288.21 -138188.211 138188.21
640,500.00 640500 696902.52 -2467.54 711003.16 -70503.1557 70503.16
678,976.00 678976 691343.19 -3085.90 694434.99 -15458.9851 15458.99
690,000.00 690000 688605.83 -3016.19 688257.29 1742.71081 1742.71
735,020.00 735020 695475.71 -1038.98 685589.64 49430.3591 49430.36
743,360.00 743360 704221.39 917.95 694436.74 48923.2634 48923.26
688,560.00 688560 701823.48 254.78 705139.34 -16579.3438 16579.34
705,380.00 705380 702738.60 386.85 702078.26 3301.74429 3301.74
734,000.00 734000 703125.46 30874.545 30874.54
total 491130.65
mad 44648.2412
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


720,000.00 720000 720000 0 720000 0 0
768,900.00 768900 729780.00 1956.00 720000 48900 48900
780,900.00 780900 741568.80 3922.56 731736 49164 49164
600,100.00 600100 716413.09 -1893.09 745491.36 -145391.36 145391.36
640,500.00 640500 699715.99 -4853.89 714519.99 -74019.9936 74019.99
678,976.00 678976 691684.88 -5489.34 694862.10 -15886.1007 15886.10
690,000.00 690000 686956.43 -5337.16 686195.54 3804.45758 3804.46
735,020.00 735020 692299.42 -3201.13 681619.27 53400.7259 53400.73
743,360.00 743360 699950.63 -1030.66 689098.29 54261.7116 54261.71
688,560.00 688560 696847.97 -1445.06 698919.97 -10359.9684 10359.97
705,380.00 705380 697398.33 -1045.98 695402.91 9977.08641 9977.09
734,000.00 734000 703881.88 459.93 696352.35 37647.6468 37647.65
690,560.00 690560 704341.81 -13781.8108 13781.81
total 502813.05
mad 45710.2774
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


768,900.00 768900 768900 0 768900 0 0
780,900.00 780900 771300.00 480.00 768900 12000 12000
600,100.00 600100 737444.00 -6387.20 771780 -171680 171680
640,500.00 640500 712945.44 -10009.47 731056.80 -90556.8 90556.80
678,976.00 678976 698143.97 -10967.87 702935.97 -23959.968 23959.97
690,000.00 690000 687740.88 -10854.91 687176.10 2823.89632 2823.90
735,020.00 735020 688512.77 -8529.55 676885.97 58134.0319 58134.03
743,360.00 743360 692658.58 -5994.48 679983.22 63376.7791 63376.78
688,560.00 688560 687043.28 -5918.65 686664.09 1895.90573 1895.91
705,380.00 705380 685975.70 -4948.43 681124.63 24255.3708 24255.37
734,000.00 734000 691621.82 -2829.52 681027.27 52972.728 52972.73
690,560.00 690560 689145.84 -2758.81 688792.30 1767.70464 1767.70
700,900.00 700900 686387.02 14512.9778 14512.98
total 503423.18
mad 45765.744
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


780,900.00 780900 780900 0 780900 0 0
600,100.00 600100 744740.00 -7232.00 780900 -180800 180800
640,500.00 640500 718106.40 -11112.32 737508 -97008 97008
678,976.00 678976 701390.46 -12233.04 706994.08 -28018.08 28018.08
690,000.00 690000 689325.94 -12199.34 689157.42 842.5792 842.58
735,020.00 735020 688705.28 -9883.60 677126.60 57893.4034 57893.40
743,360.00 743360 691729.34 -7302.07 678821.67 64538.3266 64538.33
688,560.00 688560 685253.81 -7136.76 684427.27 4132.73212 4132.73
705,380.00 705380 683569.64 -6046.24 678117.05 27262.9472 27262.95
734,000.00 734000 688818.72 -3787.18 677523.40 56476.6015 56476.60
690,560.00 690560 686137.23 -3566.04 685031.54 5528.46076 5528.46
700,900.00 700900 686236.95 -2832.89 682571.19 18328.8098 18328.81
745,480.00 745480 683404.06 62075.9366 62075.94
total 540829.94
mad 49166.3582
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


600,100.00 600100 600100 0 600100 0 0
640,500.00 640500 608180.00 1616.00 600100 40400 40400
678,976.00 678976 623632.00 4383.20 609796 69180 69180
690,000.00 690000 640412.16 6862.59 628015.20 61984.8 61984.80
735,020.00 735020 664823.80 10372.40 647274.75 87745.248 87745.25
743,360.00 743360 688828.96 13098.95 675196.20 68163.7965 68163.80
688,560.00 688560 699254.33 12564.24 701927.92 -13367.9166 13367.92
705,380.00 705380 710530.86 12306.69 711818.57 -6438.57039 6438.57
734,000.00 734000 725070.04 12753.19 722837.55 11162.4494 11162.45
690,560.00 690560 728370.59 10862.66 737823.23 -47263.2328 47263.23
700,900.00 700900 731566.60 9329.33 739233.25 -38333.2492 38333.25
745,480.00 745480 741812.75 9512.70 740895.93 4584.06766 4584.07
718,000.00 718000 751325.44 -33325.4416 33325.44
total 448623.33
mad 40783.9391
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


640,500.00 640500 640500 0 640500 0 0
678,976.00 678976 648195.20 1539.04 640500 38476 38476
690,000.00 690000 657787.39 3149.67 649734.24 40265.76 40265.76
735,020.00 735020 675753.65 6112.99 660937.06 74082.9376 74082.94
743,360.00 743360 694165.31 8572.72 681866.64 61493.3622 61493.36
688,560.00 688560 699902.43 8005.60 702738.03 -14178.0327 14178.03
705,380.00 705380 707402.42 7904.48 707908.03 -2528.02721 2528.03
734,000.00 734000 719045.52 8652.20 715306.90 18693.0982 18693.10
690,560.00 690560 720270.18 7166.69 727697.73 -37137.7253 37137.73
700,900.00 700900 722129.50 6105.22 727436.88 -26536.8752 26536.88
745,480.00 745480 731683.78 6795.03 728234.72 17245.2799 17245.28
718,000.00 718000 734383.05 5975.88 738478.81 -20478.8071 20478.81
748,560.00 748560 740358.92 8201.07547 8201.08
total 351115.91
mad 31919.6278
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


678,976.00 678976 678976 0 678976 0 0
690,000.00 690000 681180.80 440.96 678976 11024 11024
735,020.00 735020 692301.41 2576.89 681621.76 53398.24 53398.24
743,360.00 743360 704574.64 4516.16 694878.30 48481.7024 48481.70
688,560.00 688560 704984.64 3694.93 709090.80 -20530.7958 20530.80
705,380.00 705380 708019.65 3562.94 708679.56 -3299.56249 3299.56
734,000.00 734000 716066.07 4459.64 711582.59 22417.4066 22417.41
690,560.00 690560 714532.57 3261.01 720525.71 -29965.7143 29965.71
700,900.00 700900 714414.87 2585.27 717793.58 -16893.5825 16893.58
745,480.00 745480 722696.11 3724.46 717000.13 28479.8662 28479.87
718,000.00 718000 724736.46 3387.64 726420.57 -8420.56942 8420.57
748,560.00 748560 732211.28 4205.08 728124.10 20435.9048 20435.90
718,280.00 718280 736416.35 -18136.352 18136.35
total 263347.34
mad 23940.6677
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


690,000.00 690000 690000 0 690000 0 0
735,020.00 735020 699004.00 1800.80 690000 45020 45020
743,360.00 743360 709315.84 3503.01 700804.8 42555.2 42555.2
688,560.00 688560 707967.08 2532.65 712818.85 -24258.848 24258.85
705,380.00 705380 709475.79 2327.86 710499.73 -5119.73248 5119.73
734,000.00 734000 716242.92 3215.72 711803.65 22196.3492 22196.35
690,560.00 690560 713678.91 2059.77 719458.64 -28898.6394 28898.64
700,900.00 700900 712770.95 1466.23 715738.68 -14838.6847 14838.68
745,480.00 745480 720485.74 2715.94 714237.17 31242.8265 31242.83
718,000.00 718000 722161.34 2507.87 723201.68 -5201.67767 5201.68
748,560.00 748560 729447.37 3463.50 724669.21 23890.7861 23890.79
718,280.00 718280 729984.70 2878.27 732910.87 -14630.8743 14630.87
708,720.00 708720 732862.97 -24142.9676 24142.97
total 257853.62
mad 23441.238
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


735,020.00 735020 735020 0 735020 0 0
743,360.00 743360 736688.00 333.60 735020 8340 8340
688,560.00 688560 727329.28 -1604.86 737021.6 -48461.6 48461.6
705,380.00 705380 721655.53 -2418.64 725724.42 -20344.416 20344.42
734,000.00 734000 722189.51 -1828.12 719236.89 14763.1078 14763.11
690,560.00 690560 714401.12 -3020.17 720361.40 -29801.3974 29801.40
700,900.00 700900 709284.76 -3439.41 711380.95 -10480.9457 10480.95
745,480.00 745480 713772.28 -1854.02 705845.35 39634.6535 39634.65
718,000.00 718000 713134.60 -1610.75 711918.25 6081.7467 6081.75
748,560.00 748560 718931.08 -129.31 711523.85 37036.1514 37036.15
718,280.00 718280 718697.42 -150.18 718801.77 -521.770889 521.77
708,720.00 708720 716581.79 -543.27 718547.24 -9827.23789 9827.24
666,776.00 666776 716038.52 -49262.522 49262.52
total 225293.03
mad 20481.1843
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


743,360.00 743360 743360 0 743360 0 0
688,560.00 688560 732400.00 -2192.00 743360 -54800 54800
705,380.00 705380 725242.40 -3185.12 730208 -24828 24828
734,000.00 734000 724445.82 -2707.41 722057.28 11942.72 11942.72
690,560.00 690560 715502.73 -3954.55 721738.41 -31178.4128 31178.41
700,900.00 700900 709418.55 -4380.48 711548.18 -10648.1825 10648.18
745,480.00 745480 713126.46 -2762.80 705038.07 40441.929 40441.93
718,000.00 718000 711890.93 -2457.34 710363.66 7636.34105 7636.34
748,560.00 748560 717258.87 -892.29 709433.58 39126.417 39126.42
718,280.00 718280 716749.26 -815.75 716366.58 1913.42117 1913.42
708,720.00 708720 714490.81 -1104.29 715933.51 -7213.51238 7213.51
666,776.00 666776 704064.41 -2968.71 713386.52 -46610.5187 46610.52
700,079.00 700079 701095.70 -1016.70305 1016.70
total 276339.45
mad 25121.7686
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


688,560.00 688560 688560 0 688560 0 0
705,380.00 705380 691924.00 672.80 688560 16820 16820
734,000.00 734000 700877.44 2328.93 692596.8 41403.2 41403.2
690,560.00 690560 700677.09 1823.07 703206.37 -12646.368 12646.37
700,900.00 700900 702180.13 1759.07 702500.17 -1600.16768 1600.17
745,480.00 745480 712247.36 3420.70 703939.20 41540.7993 41540.80
718,000.00 718000 716134.45 3513.98 715668.06 2331.94088 2331.94
748,560.00 748560 725430.74 4670.44 719648.42 28911.5765 28911.58
718,280.00 718280 727736.94 4197.59 730101.18 -11821.178 11821.18
708,720.00 708720 727291.63 3269.01 731934.53 -23214.5345 23214.53
666,776.00 666776 717803.71 717.63 730560.64 -63784.6384 63784.64
700,079.00 700079 714832.87 -20.07 718521.34 -18442.3359 18442.34
790,646.00 790646 714812.80 75833.1995 75833.20
total 262516.74
mad 23865.1581
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


705,380.00 705380 705380 0 705380 0 0
734,000.00 734000 711104.00 1144.80 705380 28620 28620
690,560.00 690560 707911.04 277.25 712248.8 -21688.8 21688.8
700,900.00 700900 706730.63 -14.28 708188.29 -7288.288 7288.29
745,480.00 745480 714469.08 1536.26 706716.35 38763.6531 38763.65
718,000.00 718000 716404.27 1616.05 716005.34 1994.65989 1994.66
748,560.00 748560 724128.26 2837.64 718020.32 30539.6789 30539.68
718,280.00 718280 725228.71 2490.20 726965.89 -8685.89303 8685.89
708,720.00 708720 723919.13 1730.24 727718.91 -18998.9149 18998.91
666,776.00 666776 713874.70 -624.69 725649.38 -58873.3757 58873.38
700,079.00 700079 710615.81 -1151.53 713250.01 -13171.0094 13171.01
790,646.00 790646 725700.62 2095.74 709464.28 81181.724 81181.72
654,346.00 654346 727796.36 -73450.3582 73450.36
total 309806.00
mad 28164.1815
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


734,000.00 734000 734000 0 734000 0 0
690,560.00 690560 725312.00 -1737.60 734000 -43440 43440
700,900.00 700900 719039.52 -2644.58 723574.4 -22674.4 22674.4
745,480.00 745480 722211.96 -1481.17 716394.94 29085.056 29085.06
718,000.00 718000 720184.63 -1590.41 720730.78 -2730.78144 2730.78
748,560.00 748560 724587.38 -391.77 718594.22 29965.7799 29965.78
718,280.00 718280 723012.48 -628.40 724195.60 -5915.60228 5915.60
708,720.00 708720 719651.27 -1174.96 722384.08 -13664.0839 13664.08
666,776.00 666776 708136.24 -3242.97 718476.31 -51700.3059 51700.31
700,079.00 700079 703930.42 -3435.54 704893.27 -4814.27118 4814.27
790,646.00 790646 718525.10 170.50 700494.87 90151.1274 90151.13
654,346.00 654346 705825.68 -2403.48 718695.60 -64349.5988 64349.60
734,778.00 734778 703422.20 31355.8042 31355.80
total 358491.01
mad 32590.0915
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


690,560.00 690560 690560 0 690560 0 0
700,900.00 700900 692628.00 413.60 690560 10340 10340
745,480.00 745480 703529.28 2511.14 693041.6 52438.4 52438.4
718,000.00 718000 708432.33 2989.52 706040.42 11959.584 11959.58
748,560.00 748560 718849.48 4475.05 711421.85 37138.1478 37138.15
718,280.00 718280 722315.62 4273.26 723324.53 -5044.527 5044.53
708,720.00 708720 723015.11 3558.51 726588.89 -17868.8858 17868.89
666,776.00 666776 714614.09 1166.60 726573.62 -59797.6174 59797.62
700,079.00 700079 712640.36 538.54 715780.70 -15701.698 15701.70
790,646.00 790646 728672.32 3637.22 713178.89 77467.1055 77467.11
654,346.00 654346 716716.83 518.68 732309.54 -77963.536 77963.54
734,778.00 734778 720744.01 1220.38 717235.51 17542.4923 17542.49
687,656.00 687656 721964.38 -34308.3848 34308.38
total 383261.99
mad 34841.9994
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


700,900.00 700900 700900 0 700900 0 0
745,480.00 745480 709816.00 1783.20 700900 44580 44580
718,000.00 718000 712879.36 2039.23 711599.2 6400.8 6400.8
748,560.00 748560 721646.87 3384.89 714918.59 33641.408 33641.41
718,280.00 718280 723681.41 3114.82 725031.76 -6751.76192 6751.76
708,720.00 708720 723180.98 2391.77 726796.23 -18076.2274 18076.23
666,776.00 666776 713813.40 39.90 725572.75 -58796.7507 58796.75
700,079.00 700079 711098.44 -511.07 713853.30 -13774.2992 13774.30
790,646.00 790646 726599.09 2691.27 710587.37 80058.6339 80058.63
654,346.00 654346 714301.49 -306.50 729290.37 -74944.365 74944.37
734,778.00 734778 718151.59 524.82 713994.99 20783.0105 20783.01
687,656.00 687656 712472.33 -716.00 718676.41 -31020.4095 31020.41
635,678.00 635678 711756.33 -76078.3292 76078.33
total 388827.67
mad 35347.9696
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


745,480.00 745480 745480 0 745480 0 0
718,000.00 718000 739984.00 -1099.20 745480 -27480 27480
748,560.00 748560 740819.84 -712.19 738884.8 9675.2 9675.2
718,280.00 718280 735742.12 -1585.30 740107.65 -21827.648 21827.65
708,720.00 708720 729069.46 -2602.77 734156.82 -25436.8205 25436.82
666,776.00 666776 714528.55 -4990.40 726466.69 -59690.6856 59690.69
700,079.00 700079 707646.32 -5368.76 709538.15 -9459.15035 9459.15
790,646.00 790646 719951.24 -1834.03 702277.56 88368.4439 88368.44
654,346.00 654346 705362.97 -4384.88 718117.22 -63771.2185 63771.22
734,778.00 734778 707738.08 -3032.88 700978.10 33799.9004 33799.90
687,656.00 687656 701295.36 -3714.85 704705.20 -17049.2005 17049.20
635,678.00 635678 685200.01 -6190.95 697580.51 -61902.5133 61902.51
654,788.00 654788 679009.06 -24221.0629 24221.06
total 418460.78
mad 38041.8892
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


718,000.00 718000 718000 0 718000 0 0
748,560.00 748560 724112.00 1222.40 718000 30560 30560
718,280.00 718280 723923.52 940.22 725334.4 -7054.4 7054.4
708,720.00 708720 721635.00 294.47 724863.74 -16143.744 16143.74
666,776.00 666776 710898.78 -1911.66 721929.47 -55153.4694 55153.47
700,079.00 700079 707205.49 -2267.99 708987.11 -8908.11101 8908.11
790,646.00 790646 722079.20 1160.35 704937.50 85708.5002 85708.50
654,346.00 654346 709460.84 -1595.39 723239.55 -68893.5509 68893.55
734,778.00 734778 713247.96 -518.89 707865.45 26912.5503 26912.55
687,656.00 687656 707714.46 -1521.81 712729.07 -25073.0708 25073.07
635,678.00 635678 692089.72 -4342.40 706192.64 -70514.6448 70514.64
654,788.00 654788 681155.45 -5660.77 687747.32 -32959.3182 32959.32
690,807.00 690807 675494.68 15312.3158 15312.32
total 427881.36
mad 38898.3054
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


718,000.00 718000 718000 0 718000 0 0
748,560.00 748560 724112.00 1222.40 718000 30560 30560
718,280.00 718280 723923.52 940.22 725334.4 -7054.4 7054.4
708,720.00 708720 721635.00 294.47 724863.74 -16143.744 16143.74
666,776.00 666776 710898.78 -1911.66 721929.47 -55153.4694 55153.47
700,079.00 700079 707205.49 -2267.99 708987.11 -8908.11101 8908.11
790,646.00 790646 722079.20 1160.35 704937.50 85708.5002 85708.50
654,346.00 654346 709460.84 -1595.39 723239.55 -68893.5509 68893.55
734,778.00 734778 713247.96 -518.89 707865.45 26912.5503 26912.55
687,656.00 687656 707714.46 -1521.81 712729.07 -25073.0708 25073.07
635,678.00 635678 692089.72 -4342.40 706192.64 -70514.6448 70514.64
654,788.00 654788 681155.45 -5660.77 687747.32 -32959.3182 32959.32
690,807.00 690807 675494.68 15312.3158 15312.32
total 427881.36
mad 38898.3054
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


748,560.00 748560 748560 0 748560 0 0
718,280.00 718280 742504.00 -1211.20 748560 -30280 30280
708,720.00 708720 734778.24 -2514.11 741292.8 -32572.8 32572.8
666,776.00 666776 719166.50 -5133.64 732264.13 -65488.128 65488.13
700,079.00 700079 711242.09 -5691.79 714032.87 -13953.8653 13953.87
790,646.00 790646 722569.44 -2287.96 705550.30 85095.6995 85095.70
654,346.00 654346 707094.38 -4925.38 720281.48 -65935.4766 65935.48
734,778.00 734778 708690.80 -3621.02 702169.00 32609.0015 32609.00
687,656.00 687656 701587.02 -4317.57 705069.78 -17413.776 17413.78
635,678.00 635678 684951.16 -6781.23 697269.45 -61591.447 61591.45
654,788.00 654788 673493.54 -7716.51 678169.93 -23381.9259 23381.93
690,807.00 690807 670783.03 -6715.31 665777.03 25029.968 25029.97
656,556.00 656556 664067.72 -7511.71563 7511.72
total 453352.09
mad 41213.8262
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


718,280.00 718280 718280 0 718280 0 0
708,720.00 708720 716368.00 -382.40 718280 -9560 9560
666,776.00 666776 706143.68 -2350.78 715985.6 -49209.6 49209.6
700,079.00 700079 703050.12 -2499.34 703792.90 -3713.896 3713.90
790,646.00 790646 718569.82 1104.47 700550.78 90095.223 90095.22
654,346.00 654346 706608.63 -1508.66 719674.29 -65328.2906 65328.29
734,778.00 734778 711035.58 -321.54 705099.97 29678.03 29678.03
687,656.00 687656 706102.43 -1243.86 710714.03 -23058.0346 23058.03
635,678.00 635678 691022.45 -4011.09 704858.56 -69180.565 69180.56
654,788.00 654788 680566.69 -5300.02 687011.37 -32223.3667 32223.37
690,807.00 690807 678374.74 -4678.41 675266.67 15540.3267 15540.33
656,556.00 656556 670268.27 -5364.02 673696.33 -17140.3317 17140.33
676,655.00 676655 664904.25 11750.7548 11750.75
total 404727.66
mad 36793.424
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


708,720.00 708720 708720 0 708720 0 0
666,776.00 666776 700331.20 -1677.76 708720 -41944 41944
700,079.00 700079 698938.55 -1620.74 698653.44 1425.56 1425.56
790,646.00 790646 715983.45 2112.39 697317.81 93328.1856 93328.19
654,346.00 654346 705345.87 -437.60 718095.84 -63749.8413 63749.84
734,778.00 734778 710882.22 757.19 704908.27 29869.7308 29869.73
687,656.00 687656 706842.72 -202.15 711639.40 -23983.4008 23983.40
635,678.00 635678 692448.06 -3040.65 706640.57 -70962.57 70962.57
654,788.00 654788 682483.52 -4425.43 689407.40 -34619.4026 34619.40
690,807.00 690807 680607.87 -3915.47 678058.09 12748.9075 12748.91
656,556.00 656556 672665.12 -4720.93 676692.40 -20136.4008 20136.40
676,655.00 676655 669686.35 -4372.50 667944.19 8710.80864 8710.81
738,900.00 738900 665313.86 73586.1438 73586.14
total 401478.81
mad 36498.0735
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


666,776.00 666776 666776 0 666776 0 0
700,079.00 700079 673436.60 1332.12 666776 33303 33303
790,646.00 790646 697944.18 5967.21 674768.72 115877.28 115877.28
654,346.00 654346 693998.31 3984.60 703911.39 -49565.3872 49565.39
734,778.00 734778 705341.92 5456.40 697982.91 36795.0945 36795.09
687,656.00 687656 706169.86 4530.71 710798.32 -23142.3239 23142.32
635,678.00 635678 695696.05 1529.80 710700.57 -75022.5656 75022.57
654,788.00 654788 688738.29 -167.71 697225.86 -42437.8564 42437.86
690,807.00 690807 689017.86 -78.25 688570.57 2236.42521 2236.43
656,556.00 656556 682462.89 -1373.60 688939.61 -32383.6065 32383.61
676,655.00 676655 680202.43 -1550.97 681089.29 -4434.2876 4434.29
738,900.00 738900 690701.17 858.97 678651.46 60248.539 60248.54
691560.14
total 475446.37
mad 43222.3969
mape
alpha 0.3
Dengan Data Acuan 12 Bulan

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jan 2016 706,480.00 706,480.00
0.022586 feb 2016 690,876.00 690,876.00
0.010076 mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00
0.024494 apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00
0.001075 mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00
0.030195 jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00
0.08644 jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00
0.080272 ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00
0.226041 sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00
0.105677 okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00
0.01846 nov 2016 678,976.00 678,976.00
0.006721 des 2016 690,000.00 690,000.00
0.070998 jan 2017 735,020.00 735,020.00
0.612036 total
mad
5.564% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


feb 2016 690,876.00 690876
0.026782 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888
0.012284 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000
0.006478 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700
0.033773 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
0.086847 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
0.078337 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
0.230888 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
0.111783 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.02517 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.000367 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.064247 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.062735 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.676956 total
mad
6.154% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


mar 2016 709,888.00 709888
0.033316 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000
0.008151 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700
0.024844 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
0.082765 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
0.077849 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
0.227821 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
0.10625 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.018153 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.007679 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.072353 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.070867 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.018834 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.730047 total
mad
6.637% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


apr 2016 687,000.00 687000
0.016745 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700
0.041933 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
0.092831 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
0.082689 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
0.227056 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
0.109709 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.024436 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.000635 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.063261 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.061218 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.029404 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.000594 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.749917 total
mad
6.817% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


mei 2016 698,700.00 698700
0.029583 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
0.084651 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
0.077622 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
0.230275 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
0.110075 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.022768 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.002526 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.06725 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.065814 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.024078 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.004681 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.042063 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.719323 total
mad
6.539% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
0.063597 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
0.062958 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
0.242279 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
0.115566 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.023397 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.005514 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.072652 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.072995 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.015046 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.014144 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.051291 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.019957 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.739439 total
mad
6.722% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
0.015367 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
0.286086 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
0.141385 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.035288 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.004093 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.079092 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.085257 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.002753 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.034386 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.07217 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.00256 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.020706 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.758436 total
mad
6.895% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
0.301283 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
0.151457 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.041265 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.001221 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.078764 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.08682 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.006002 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.03865 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.076944 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.008006 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.02615 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.08327 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.816562 total
mad
7.423% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
0.063076 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.101889 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.089833 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.119378 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.091697 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.019414 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.009128 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.015208 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.068442 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.054691 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.006149 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.046414 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.638905 total
mad
5.808% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.056668 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.058356 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.10079 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.082724 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.020591 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.003584 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.025467 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.053779 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.037861 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.023133 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.028522 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.010956 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.491475 total
mad
4.468% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.015977 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.072649 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.06522 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.029817 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.004678 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.030541 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.043393 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.024103 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.038203 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.011728 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.0273 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.02525 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.363609 total
mad
3.306% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.06125 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.057247 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.035231 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.007258 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.03024 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.041848 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.021171 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.04191 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.007245 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.031916 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.020369 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.034066 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.355685 total
mad
3.234% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.011219 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.070381 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.028842 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.020113 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.043155 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.014954 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.053167 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.00847 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.049477 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.000726 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.013866 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.073882 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.314371 total
mad
2.858% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.079586 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.035198 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.016271 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.045149 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.015192 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.05425 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.010636 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.052269 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.002664 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.010178 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.069904 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.001452 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.391297 total
mad
3.557% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.023845 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.056408 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.018313 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.002283 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.055724 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.003248 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.038623 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.016458 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.032756 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.095661 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.026343 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.095913 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.369661 total
mad
3.361% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.038992 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.031408 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.010398 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.051998 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.002778 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.040798 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.012093 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.026807 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.088296 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.018814 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.102678 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.11225 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.425059 total
mad
3.864% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.062905 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.03235 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.039015 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.003803 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.040031 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.008236 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.01928 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.077538 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.006877 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.114022 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.098342 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.042674 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.5024 total
mad
4.567% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.014752 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.070342 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.016657 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.049613 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.007023 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.025213 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.089682 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.022428 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.09798 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.119147 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.023875 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.049892 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.536711 total
mad
4.879% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.0598 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.008915 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.044941 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.0094 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.025505 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.088181 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.019675 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.101257 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.114533 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.028285 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.04511 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.119681 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.545604 total
mad
4.960% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.038273 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.012925 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.030389 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.035891 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.089521 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.013512 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.111767 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.097458 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.046 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.024793 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.09738 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.036991 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.59791 total
mad
5.436% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.040825 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.009821 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.022779 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.082717 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.012724 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.108403 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.105286 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.036627 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.036462 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.110928 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.050336 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.022166 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.616908 total
mad
5.608% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.040825 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.009821 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.022779 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.082717 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.012724 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.108403 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.105286 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.036627 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.036462 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.110928 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.050336 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.022166 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.616908 total
mad
5.608% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.042156 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.04596 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.098216 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.019932 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.107628 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.100765 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.044379 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.025323 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.096891 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.035709 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.036233 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.011441 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
0.653194 total
mad
5.938% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.013489 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.073802 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.005305 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.113951 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.099838 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.04039 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.033531 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.10883 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.049212 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.022496 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.026106 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
0.017366 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
0.586951 total
mad
5.336% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.062906 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.002036 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.11804 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.097425 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.040651 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.034877 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.111633 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.052871 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.018455 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.03067 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
0.012873 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
0.099589 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
0.582438 total
mad
5.295% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.04757 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.14656 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.075748 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.050076 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.033654 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.11802 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.064812 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.003237 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.049323 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
0.006553 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
0.081538 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
jan 2019
0.677093 total
mad
6.155% mape
level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
706480 0 706480 0 0
701798.80 -1404.36 706480 -15604 15604 0.022586
703242.51 -549.94 700394.44 9493.56 9493.56 0.013373
697984.80 -1962.27 702692.57 -15692.5684 15692.57 0.022842
696825.77 -1721.30 696022.53 2677.472876 2677.47 0.003832
702573.13 519.30 695104.47 24895.52921 24895.53 0.034577
722834.70 6441.98 703092.43 65807.57102 65807.57 0.085587
744763.68 11088.08 729276.68 51623.31889 51623.32 0.066107
709126.23 -2929.58 755851.76 -155751.7563 155751.76 0.259543
686487.66 -8842.28 706196.65 -65696.65087 65696.65 0.102571
678044.56 -8722.52 677645.38 1330.621515 1330.62 0.00196
675525.43 -6861.51 669322.04 20677.95625 20677.96 0.029968
668663.93 66356.0745 66356.07 0.090278
429251.01 0.642946
39022.81867
5.845%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690876 0 690876 0 0
696579.60 1711.08 690876 19012 19012 0.026782
694903.48 694.92 698290.68 -11290.68 11290.68 0.016435
696528.88 974.06 695598.39 3101.6052 3101.61 0.004439
704252.06 2998.80 697502.94 22497.06037 22497.06 0.031246
725745.60 8547.22 707250.86 61649.14356 61649.14 0.080178
748274.97 12741.87 734292.82 46607.17887 46607.18 0.059684
712741.79 -1740.65 761016.84 -160916.8425 160916.84 0.26815
689850.80 -8085.75 711001.14 -70501.14165 70501.14 0.110072
680928.33 -8336.77 681765.05 -2789.048302 2789.05 0.004108
677814.10 -6770.01 672591.57 17408.43139 17408.43 0.02523
690236.86 -1012.17 671044.09 63975.90835 63975.91 0.08704
689224.69 54135.31047 54135.31 0.072825
479749.04 0.713363
43613.54911
6.485%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


709888 0 709888 0 0
703021.60 -2059.92 709888 -22888 22888 0.033316
700283.18 -2263.47 700961.68 -2261.68 2261.68 0.003237
704613.79 -285.24 698019.70 21980.2952 21980.30 0.030528
723699.98 5526.19 704328.55 64571.45127 64571.45 0.083979
744728.32 10176.83 729226.17 51673.82991 51673.83 0.066172
708463.60 -3755.63 754905.15 -154805.1497 154805.15 0.257966
685445.58 -9534.35 704707.97 -64207.97201 64207.97 0.100247
676830.66 -9258.52 675911.23 3064.769873 3064.77 0.004514
674300.50 -7240.01 667572.14 22427.85991 22427.86 0.032504
687448.34 -1123.66 667060.48 67959.51554 67959.52 0.092459
703435.28 4009.52 686324.68 57035.31808 57035.32 0.076726
707444.80 -18884.79877 18884.80 0.027427
532875.84 0.781648
48443.25832
7.106%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


687000 0 687000 0 0
690510.00 1053.00 687000 11700 11700 0.016745
700094.10 3612.33 691563 28437 28437 0.039496
723264.50 9479.75 703706.43 65193.57 65193.57 0.084788
747190.98 13813.77 732744.25 48155.7477 48155.75 0.061667
712733.32 -667.66 761004.75 -160904.7452 160904.75 0.26813
690595.96 -7108.57 712065.66 -71565.66317 71565.66 0.111734
682133.98 -7514.59 683487.40 -4511.396056 4511.40 0.006644
679233.57 -6130.34 674619.38 15380.61657 15380.62 0.022291
691678.26 -557.83 673103.23 61916.76991 61916.77 0.084238
706792.30 4143.73 691120.43 52239.56796 52239.57 0.070275
704223.22 2129.89 710936.03 -22376.03452 22376.03 0.032497
706353.11 -973.1131523 973.11 0.00138
542381.11 0.798505
49307.37373
7.259%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


698700 0 698700 0 0
705090.00 1917.00 698700 21300 21300 0.029583
725574.90 7487.37 707007 61893 61893 0.080496
747413.59 11792.77 733062.27 47837.73 47837.73 0.06126
711474.45 -2526.81 759206.35 -159106.3547 159106.35 0.265133
688413.35 -8687.09 708947.64 -68447.64207 68447.64 0.106866
679501.18 -8754.62 679726.26 -750.2554379 750.26 0.001105
676522.59 -7021.81 670746.56 19253.43819 19253.44 0.027904
689156.55 -1125.08 669500.79 65519.2143 65519.21 0.089139
704630.03 3854.49 688031.47 55328.52828 55328.53 0.07443
702507.16 2061.28 708484.52 -19924.51947 19924.52 0.028937
704811.91 2134.32 704568.45 811.5538502 811.55 0.001151
706946.23 27053.76533 27053.77 0.036858
520172.24 0.766003
47288.38512
6.964%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


720000 0 720000 0 0
734670.00 4401.00 720000 48900 48900 0.063597
751619.70 8165.61 739071 41829 41829 0.053565
711879.72 -6206.07 759785.31 -159685.31 159685.31 0.266098
686121.55 -12071.70 705673.65 -65173.6491 65173.65 0.101754
675527.70 -11628.34 674049.86 4926.141949 4926.14 0.007255
671729.55 -9279.29 663899.36 26100.64291 26100.64 0.037827
684221.18 -2748.01 662450.26 72569.73572 72569.74 0.098732
700039.22 2821.80 681473.18 61886.82447 61886.82 0.083253
698570.72 1534.71 702861.03 -14301.02761 14301.03 0.020769
701687.80 2009.42 700105.43 5274.568425 5274.57 0.007478
712788.06 4736.67 703697.23 30302.77449 30302.77 0.041284
717524.73 -26964.73097 26964.73 0.039048
530949.67 0.781613
48268.15224
7.106%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


768900 0 768900 0 0
772500.00 1080.00 768900 12000 12000 0.015367
721536.00 -14533.20 773580 -173480 173480 0.289085
687051.96 -20518.45 707002.80 -66502.8 66502.80 0.10383
670266.26 -19398.63 666533.51 12442.492 12442.49 0.018325
662607.34 -15876.71 650867.63 39132.37212 39132.37 0.056714
673217.44 -7930.67 646730.63 88289.37471 88289.37 0.120118
688708.74 -904.08 665286.77 78073.2328 78073.23 0.105027
688031.26 -836.10 687804.66 755.3425156 755.34 0.001097
692650.61 800.54 687195.16 18184.83849 18184.84 0.02578
705615.80 4449.93 693451.15 40548.8502 40548.85 0.055244
704214.02 2694.42 710065.74 -19505.73811 19505.74 0.028246
706908.43 -6008.433505 6008.43 0.008572
548915.04 0.818833
49901.36736
7.444%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


780900 0 780900 0 0
726660.00 -16272.00 780900 -180800 180800 0.301283
689421.60 -22561.92 710388 -69888 69888 0.109115
670494.58 -21471.45 666859.68 12116.32 12116.32 0.017845
661316.19 -17783.53 649023.12 40976.8752 40976.88 0.059387
670978.86 -9549.67 643532.65 91487.34507 91487.35 0.124469
686008.43 -2175.90 661429.19 81930.81293 81930.81 0.110217
685250.77 -1750.43 683832.53 4727.46726 4727.47 0.006866
690064.24 218.74 683500.35 21879.65324 21879.65 0.031018
703398.09 4153.27 690282.99 43717.01464 43717.01 0.05956
702453.95 2624.05 707551.36 -16991.36371 16991.36 0.024605
703824.60 2248.03 705078.01 -4178.00581 4178.01 0.005961
706072.63 39407.36524 39407.37 0.052862
568692.86 0.850326
51699.35071
7.730%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


600100 0 600100 0 0
612220.00 3636.00 600100 40400 40400 0.063076
634792.00 9316.80 615856 63120 63120 0.092964
657876.16 13447.01 644108.80 45891.2 45891.20 0.066509
690432.22 19179.72 671323.17 63696.832 63696.83 0.08666
719736.36 22217.05 709611.94 33748.05952 33748.06 0.045399
725935.38 17411.64 741953.41 -53393.40657 53393.41 0.077544
731956.92 13994.61 743347.03 -37967.02625 37967.03 0.053825
742366.07 12918.97 745951.53 -11951.52766 11951.53 0.016283
735867.53 7093.72 755285.04 -64725.04115 64725.04 0.093728
730342.87 3308.21 742961.25 -42061.2469 42061.25 0.06001
737199.76 4372.81 733651.08 11828.9213 11828.92 0.015868
741572.56 -23572.56388 23572.56 0.032831
468783.26 0.671865
42616.66012
6.108%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


640500 0 640500 0 0
652042.80 3462.84 640500 38476 38476 0.056668
665853.95 6567.33 655505.64 34494.36 34494.36 0.049992
691200.90 12201.22 672421.28 62598.7196 62598.72 0.085166
715389.48 15797.43 703402.11 39957.88656 39957.89 0.053753
718398.83 11961.01 731186.91 -42626.90636 42626.91 0.061907
722865.89 9712.82 730359.84 -24979.83984 24979.84 0.035413
733005.10 9840.74 732578.71 1421.292318 1421.29 0.001936
727160.08 5135.01 742845.83 -52285.83148 52285.83 0.075715
722876.57 2309.45 732295.09 -31395.09331 31395.09 0.044793
731274.21 4135.91 725186.02 20293.98181 20293.98 0.027223
730187.09 2569.00 735410.12 -17410.12397 17410.12 0.024248
732756.09 15803.91314 15803.91 0.021112
365940.04 0.516814
33267.27593
4.698%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


678976 0 678976 0 0
682283.20 992.16 678976 11024 11024 0.015977
698798.75 5649.18 683275.36 51744.64 51744.64 0.070399
716121.55 9151.26 704447.93 38912.0704 38912.07 0.052346
714258.97 5847.11 725272.81 -36712.81466 36712.81 0.053318
715688.26 4521.76 720106.08 -14726.08088 14726.08 0.020877
724347.01 5762.86 720210.02 13789.98005 13789.98 0.018787
718244.91 2203.37 730109.88 -39549.87551 39549.88 0.057272
714583.80 444.03 720448.29 -19548.2856 19548.29 0.02789
724163.48 3184.72 715027.83 30452.17304 30452.17 0.040849
724543.74 2343.38 727348.20 -9348.201491 9348.20 0.01302
733388.99 4293.94 726887.13 21672.87447 21672.87 0.028953
737682.93 -19402.93105 19402.93 0.027013
287481.00 0.399689
26134.63601
3.634%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690000 0 690000 0 0
703506.00 4051.80 690000 45020 45020 0.06125
718298.46 7274.00 707557.8 35802.2 35802.2 0.048163
714468.72 3942.88 725572.46 -37012.458 37012.46 0.053753
714502.12 2770.03 718411.60 -13031.59738 13031.60 0.018475
722290.51 4275.54 717272.15 16727.84882 16727.85 0.02279
715764.23 1035.00 726566.05 -36006.04524 36006.05 0.05214
712029.46 -395.94 716799.23 -15899.227 15899.23 0.022684
721787.47 2650.25 711633.52 33846.47619 33846.48 0.045402
722506.40 2070.85 724437.71 -6437.714432 6437.71 0.008966
731772.08 4229.30 724577.25 23982.74643 23982.75 0.032039
730684.96 2634.38 736001.38 -17721.37814 17721.38 0.024672
733319.34 -24599.34131 24599.34 0.03471
281487.69 0.390334
25589.79015
3.548%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


735020 0 735020 0 0
737522.00 750.60 735020 8340 8340 0.011219
723358.82 -3723.53 738272.6 -49712.6 49712.6 0.072198
715358.70 -5006.51 719635.29 -14255.286 14255.29 0.020209
717446.53 -2878.21 710352.19 23647.80954 23647.81 0.032218
707365.83 -5038.96 714568.33 -24008.32644 24008.33 0.034766
701898.81 -5167.37 702326.87 -1426.872247 1426.87 0.002036
711356.01 -780.00 696731.44 48748.56419 48748.56 0.065392
712803.20 -111.84 710576.00 7423.998919 7424.00 0.01034
723451.95 3116.33 712691.36 35868.64333 35868.64 0.047917
724081.80 2370.39 726568.28 -8288.283487 8288.28 0.011539
721132.53 774.49 726452.19 -17732.18674 17732.19 0.02502
721907.02 -55131.02222 55131.02 0.082683
239452.57 0.332855
21768.41554
3.026%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


743360 0 743360 0 0
726920.00 -4932.00 743360 -54800 54800 0.079586
717005.60 -6426.72 721988 -16608 16608 0.023545
717605.22 -4318.82 710578.88 23421.12 23421.12 0.031909
706468.48 -6364.19 713286.40 -22726.3968 22726.40 0.03291
700343.00 -6292.58 700104.28 795.717152 795.72 0.001135
709479.29 -1663.92 694050.42 51429.58237 51429.58 0.068989
710870.76 -747.30 707815.37 10184.62562 10184.63 0.014185
721654.42 2711.99 710123.46 38436.53958 38436.54 0.051347
722540.49 2164.21 724366.41 -6086.409207 6086.41 0.008474
719909.29 725.59 724704.70 -15984.69653 15984.70 0.022554
704477.21 -4121.71 720634.87 -53858.87497 53858.87 0.080775
700355.50 -276.5011271 276.50 0.000395
294331.96 0.415409
26757.45111
3.776%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


688560 0 688560 0 0
693606.00 1513.80 688560 16820 16820 0.023845
706783.86 5013.02 695119.8 38880.2 38880.2 0.05297
705425.81 3101.70 711796.88 -21236.878 21236.88 0.030753
706239.26 2415.22 708527.51 -7627.51358 7627.51 0.010882
719702.14 5729.52 708654.48 36825.51774 36825.52 0.049398
723202.16 5060.67 725431.66 -7431.656939 7431.66 0.01035
734351.98 6887.42 728262.83 20297.16991 20297.17 0.027115
734351.58 4821.07 741239.40 -22959.39658 22959.40 0.031964
730036.85 2080.33 739172.65 -30452.64744 30452.65 0.042969
712514.83 -3800.38 732117.18 -65341.18477 65341.18 0.097996
706123.82 -4577.57 708714.45 -8635.454267 8635.45 0.012335
701546.25 89099.74797 89099.75 0.112692
276507.62 0.390579
25137.05629
3.551%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


705380 0 705380 0 0
713966.00 2575.80 705380 28620 28620 0.038992
708747.26 237.44 716541.8 -25981.8 25981.8 0.037624
706559.29 -490.18 708984.70 -8084.698 8084.70 0.011535
717892.37 3056.80 706069.10 39410.89622 39410.90 0.052866
720064.42 2791.37 720949.17 -2949.168486 2949.17 0.004107
730567.05 5104.75 722855.79 25704.21138 25704.21 0.034338
730454.26 3539.49 735671.80 -17391.80173 17391.80 0.024213
726411.62 1264.85 733993.75 -25273.74876 25273.75 0.035661
709406.33 -4216.19 727676.47 -60900.47429 60900.47 0.091336
703656.80 -4676.20 705190.14 -5111.139471 5111.14 0.007301
726480.22 3573.69 698980.60 91665.39745 91665.40 0.115937
730053.91 -75707.91247 75707.91 0.1157
331093.34 0.453911
30099.39416
4.126%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


734000 0 734000 0 0
720968.00 -3909.60 734000 -43440 43440 0.062905
712210.88 -5363.86 717058.4 -16158.4 16158.4 0.023054
718436.92 -1886.89 706847.02 38632.976 38632.98 0.051823
716985.02 -1756.39 716550.03 1449.97136 1449.97 0.002019
725228.04 1243.43 715228.63 33331.37069 33331.37 0.044527
724014.03 506.20 726471.47 -8191.473142 8191.47 0.011404
719780.16 -915.82 724520.23 -15800.23124 15800.23 0.022294
703237.84 -5603.77 718864.34 -52088.3411 52088.34 0.07812
698367.55 -5383.73 697634.07 2444.9327 2444.93 0.003492
722282.47 3405.87 692983.82 97662.18042 97662.18 0.123522
704285.64 -3014.94 725688.34 -71342.34242 71342.34 0.109028
701270.70 33507.30241 33507.30 0.045602
380542.22 0.53219
34594.74719
4.838%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690560 0 690560 0 0
693662.00 930.60 690560 10340 10340 0.014752
709858.82 5510.47 694592.6 50887.4 50887.4 0.068261
716158.50 5747.23 715369.29 2630.714 2630.71 0.003664
729902.01 8146.11 721905.73 26654.26954 26654.27 0.035607
732117.69 6366.98 738048.13 -19768.12584 19768.13 0.027521
729555.27 3688.16 738484.67 -29764.67128 29764.67 0.041998
713303.20 -2293.91 733243.43 -66467.43267 66467.43 0.099685
707730.21 -3277.63 711009.30 -10930.29671 10930.30 0.015613
730310.60 4479.78 704452.57 86193.42517 86193.43 0.109016
710657.06 -2760.22 734790.38 -80444.37778 80444.38 0.122939
715961.19 -340.91 707896.85 26881.15416 26881.15 0.036584
715620.28 -27964.27736 27964.28 0.040666
410961.87 0.575641
37360.16974
5.233%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


700900 0 700900 0 0
714274.00 4012.20 700900 44580 44580 0.0598
718200.34 3986.44 718286.2 -286.2 286.2 0.000399
730098.75 6360.03 722186.78 26373.218 26373.22 0.035232
731005.15 4723.94 736458.78 -18178.77902 18178.78 0.025309
727626.36 2293.12 735729.09 -27009.08682 27009.09 0.03811
710976.44 -3389.79 729919.48 -63143.48447 63143.48 0.0947
705334.35 -4065.48 707586.65 -7507.649221 7507.65 0.010724
728082.01 3978.46 701268.88 89377.12388 89377.12 0.113043
708746.13 -3015.84 732060.48 -77714.47609 77714.48 0.118767
714444.61 -401.55 705730.29 29047.70677 29047.71 0.039533
706126.94 -2776.38 714043.06 -26387.05883 26387.06 0.038372
703350.56 -67672.55946 67672.56 0.106457
409604.78 0.573988
37236.79846
5.218%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


745480 0 745480 0 0
737236.00 -2473.20 745480 -27480 27480 0.038273
738901.96 -1231.45 734762.8 13797.2 13797.2 0.018432
731853.36 -2976.60 737670.51 -19390.508 19390.51 0.026996
722829.73 -4790.71 728876.76 -20156.75788 20156.76 0.028441
702660.12 -9404.38 718039.02 -51263.02459 51263.02 0.076882
695302.72 -8790.28 693255.74 6823.260931 6823.26 0.009746
717752.50 581.74 686512.43 104133.5673 104133.57 0.131707
699137.77 -5177.21 718334.24 -63988.23928 63988.24 0.09779
706205.79 -1503.64 693960.56 40817.43764 40817.44 0.055551
699588.31 -3037.79 704702.16 -17046.15791 17046.16 0.024789
678288.76 -8516.32 696550.52 -60872.52057 60872.52 0.09576
669772.45 -14984.44759 14984.45 0.022884
425768.67 0.604366
38706.2431
5.494%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718000 0 718000 0 0
727168.00 2750.40 718000 30560 30560 0.040825
726426.88 1702.94 729918.4 -11638.4 11638.4 0.016203
722306.88 -43.94 728129.82 -19409.824 19409.82 0.027387
705616.86 -5037.76 722262.94 -55486.93664 55486.94 0.083217
700429.06 -5082.77 700579.09 -500.0911904 500.09 0.000714
723936.20 3494.20 695346.29 95299.70883 95299.71 0.120534
705505.08 -3083.40 727430.40 -73084.40495 73084.40 0.111691
712128.58 -171.33 702421.69 32356.31185 32356.31 0.044035
704666.88 -2358.44 711957.25 -24301.25446 24301.25 0.035339
682319.31 -8355.18 702308.44 -66630.43797 66630.44 0.104818
668211.29 -10081.03 673964.13 -19176.12701 19176.13 0.029286
658130.26 32676.74209 32676.74 0.047302
428443.50 0.61405
38949.40881
5.582%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718000 0 718000 0 0
727168.00 2750.40 718000 30560 30560 0.040825
726426.88 1702.94 729918.4 -11638.4 11638.4 0.016203
722306.88 -43.94 728129.82 -19409.824 19409.82 0.027387
705616.86 -5037.76 722262.94 -55486.93664 55486.94 0.083217
700429.06 -5082.77 700579.09 -500.0911904 500.09 0.000714
723936.20 3494.20 695346.29 95299.70883 95299.71 0.120534
705505.08 -3083.40 727430.40 -73084.40495 73084.40 0.111691
712128.58 -171.33 702421.69 32356.31185 32356.31 0.044035
704666.88 -2358.44 711957.25 -24301.25446 24301.25 0.035339
682319.31 -8355.18 702308.44 -66630.43797 66630.44 0.104818
668211.29 -10081.03 673964.13 -19176.12701 19176.13 0.029286
658130.26 32676.74209 32676.74 0.047302
428443.50 0.61405
38949.40881
5.582%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


748560 0 748560 0 0
739476.00 -2725.20 748560 -30280 30280 0.042156
728341.56 -5247.97 736750.8 -28030.8 28030.8 0.039551
706198.31 -10316.55 723093.59 -56317.588 56317.59 0.084463
697140.93 -9938.80 695881.76 4197.24332 4197.24 0.005995
718235.29 -628.85 687202.13 103443.8733 103443.87 0.130835
698628.30 -6322.29 717606.43 -63260.43424 63260.43 0.096677
705047.61 -2499.81 692306.01 42471.98953 42471.99 0.057802
698080.26 -3840.08 702547.79 -14891.79288 14891.79 0.021656
676671.53 -9110.67 694240.18 -58562.17921 58562.18 0.092126
663729.00 -10260.23 667560.85 -12772.85352 12772.85 0.019507
664670.24 -6899.79 653468.77 37338.23129 37338.23 0.05405
657770.45 -1214.450167 1214.45 0.00185
451566.99 0.644818
41051.54412
5.862%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718280 0 718280 0 0
715412.00 -860.40 718280 -9560 9560 0.013489
700218.92 -5160.20 714551.6 -47775.6 47775.6 0.071652
696564.80 -4708.38 695058.72 5020.284 5020.28 0.007171
721493.30 4182.68 691856.42 98789.57724 98789.58 0.124948
704276.99 -2237.01 725675.98 -71329.97944 71329.98 0.10901
711861.38 709.41 702039.97 32738.02903 32738.03 0.044555
705096.35 -1532.92 712570.79 -24914.78765 24914.79 0.036231
683197.80 -7642.61 703563.43 -67885.42844 67885.43 0.106792
669325.03 -9511.66 675555.19 -20767.18844 20767.19 0.031716
669111.46 -6722.23 659813.37 30993.62653 30993.63 0.044866
660639.26 -7247.22 662389.23 -5833.229384 5833.23 0.008885
653392.04 23262.96212 23262.96 0.034379
415607.73 0.599314
37782.52092
5.448%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


708720 0 708720 0 0
696136.80 -3774.96 708720 -41944 41944 0.062906
694676.99 -3080.42 692361.84 7717.16 7717.16 0.011023
721311.40 5834.03 691596.57 99049.4276 99049.43 0.125277
705305.60 -717.92 727145.43 -72799.43356 72799.43 0.111255
713644.78 1999.21 704587.69 30190.31264 30190.31 0.041088
707247.60 -519.71 715643.99 -27987.99315 27987.99 0.040701
685412.92 -6914.20 706727.89 -71049.88782 71049.89 0.11177
671385.51 -9048.16 678498.72 -23710.72419 23710.72 0.036211
670878.24 -6485.89 662337.34 28469.65553 28469.66 0.041212
662041.44 -7191.16 664392.35 -7836.347662 7836.35 0.011936
661391.70 -5228.74 654850.28 21804.72139 21804.72 0.032224
656162.96 82737.0448 82737.04 0.111973
432559.66 0.625603
39323.60578
5.687%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


666776 0 666776 0 0
676766.90 2997.27 666776 33303 33303 0.04757
713028.72 12976.63 679764.17 110881.83 110881.83 0.140242
704507.55 6527.29 726005.35 -71659.3537 71659.35 0.109513
718157.79 8664.18 711034.84 23743.15954 23743.16 0.032313
715072.18 5139.24 726821.97 -39165.96555 39165.97 0.056956
694851.39 -2468.77 720211.42 -84533.41621 84533.42 0.132982
681104.24 -5852.28 692382.62 -37594.62421 37594.62 0.057415
679918.47 -4452.33 675251.95 15555.04636 15555.05 0.022517
669793.10 -6154.24 675466.14 -18910.13841 18910.14 0.028802
667543.70 -4982.79 663638.86 13016.14471 13016.14 0.019236
685462.64 1887.73 662560.91 76339.08987 76339.09 0.103315
687350.37
524701.77 0.750861
47700.16078
6.826%
alpha 0.4
Dengan Data Acuan 12 Bulan

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jan 2016 706,480.00 706,480.00 706480
feb 2016 690,876.00 690,876.00 700238.40
mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00 702600.26
apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 696028.21
mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 695320.47
jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 703956.55
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 731265.15
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 758471.88
sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00 706064.42
okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00 673825.64
nov 2016 678,976.00 678,976.00 664540.67
des 2016 690,000.00 690,000.00 665688.94
jan 2017 735,020.00 735,020.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 690876
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 698480.80
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 695713.63
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 697339.15
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 707052.20
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 734511.67
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 761289.49
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 708173.86
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 675172.67
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 665214.73
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 665851.36
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 688105.13
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 709888
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 700732.80
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 697722.43
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 704592.62
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 730739.92
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 757333.91
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 704740.88
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 672602.52
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 663573.50
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 665030.09
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 687907.23
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 712507.56
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 687000
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 691680.00
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 704131.20
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 733700.93
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 761874.62
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 709502.89
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 676735.39
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 666667.63
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 667005.91
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 688895.94
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 712745.80
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 710033.99
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 698700
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 707220.00
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 733936.80
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 760360.99
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 707181.75
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 674301.12
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 664554.97
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 665424.24
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 687885.92
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 712240.39
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 709912.20
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 711826.94
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 720000
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 739560.00
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 760790.40
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 704426.18
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 670075.45
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 660123.35
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 661578.11
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 685006.47
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 710401.65
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 708992.09
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 711605.22
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723625.07
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 768900
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 773700.00
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 705412.00
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 663749.28
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 650422.16
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 651404.11
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 676176.62
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 703791.06
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 704770.76
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 709492.86
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723116.06
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 715655.41
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780900
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 708580.00
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 663991.20
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 648869.73
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 649023.45
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 673679.93
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 701624.23
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 703148.53
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 708456.95
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 722597.69
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 715530.50
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 711430.91
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 600100
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 616260.00
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 645224.80
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 672413.47
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 709548.52
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 739240.99
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 735795.51
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 732898.54
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 738205.39
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 723340.64
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 713312.89
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723142.17
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 640500
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 655890.40
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 673227.94
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 704321.99
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 731226.10
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 727389.99
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 725603.53
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 732743.89
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 719853.08
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 711567.70
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 722721.64
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 722063.35
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 678976
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 683385.60
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 705097.66
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 726248.48
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 719756.81
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 717598.32
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 725796.29
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 714651.67
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 708246.23
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 721059.57
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 721662.84
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 733662.75
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690000
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 708008.00
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 726470.72
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 718330.64
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 715411.28
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723502.67
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 712661.07
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 706755.94
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 720107.91
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 721186.63
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 733548.00
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 731254.74
des 2017 708,720.00 708720
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 735020
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 738356.00
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 719238.24
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 709587.07
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 714571.23
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 703294.33
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698626.70
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 714021.85
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 717300.24
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 731603.24
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 730786.12
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 724470.87
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 743360
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 721440.00
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 709755.20
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 713492.29
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701639.77
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 696891.50
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 712515.90
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 716172.79
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 730883.28
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 730425.85
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 724384.06
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 701475.13
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 688560
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 695288.00
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 712387.52
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 708729.23
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 707763.18
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723917.44
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 726068.00
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 738291.46
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 735156.50
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 726751.29
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 702045.55
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 694900.18
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 705380
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 716828.00
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 709068.32
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 705587.18
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 720580.55
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 722568.48
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 735254.28
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 732882.68
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 725299.29
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 701318.97
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 694725.10
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727852.20
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 734000
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 716624.00
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 706164.16
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 716877.99
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 716890.61
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 729299.68
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 727714.78
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 721430.27
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 698848.32
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693488.78
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727554.29
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703568.27
may 2018 734,778.00 734778
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 690560
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 694696.00
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 716002.24
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 722510.43
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 737917.67
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 736752.79
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 729274.21
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 704720.79
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 697238.78
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 729430.80
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 704020.45
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 712999.12
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 700900
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 718732.00
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 722718.88
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 736579.99
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 734701.45
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 727122.90
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 702853.71
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 695840.95
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 728538.19
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703573.78
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 712891.49
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 703135.16
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 745480
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 734488.00
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 737478.72
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 728934.16
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 718278.75
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 693578.51
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687791.16
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 722511.61
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 699725.38
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 710965.74
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 702671.12
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 674500.73
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 718000
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 730224.00
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 728380.16
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 721833.83
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 699030.22
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693508.58
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727473.66
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703440.28
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 713337.97
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 703858.19
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 674786.77
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 658730.52
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 718000
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 730224.00
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 728380.16
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 721833.83
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 699030.22
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693508.58
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727473.66
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 703440.28
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 713337.97
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 703858.19
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 674786.77
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 658730.52
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 748560
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 736448.00
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 722449.92
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 695076.68
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687445.83
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 721115.43
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 697922.08
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 709206.70
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 701220.07
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 673466.65
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 658412.41
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 663207.56
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 718280
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 714456.00
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 694466.24
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 691363.15
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727122.63
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 704222.05
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 714674.34
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 705313.50
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 676080.59
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 659720.44
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 663522.75
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 656469.22
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708720
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 691942.40
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 691170.42
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 728359.40
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 706118.65
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716663.37
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 707039.74
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 677372.97
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 660545.71
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 663935.72
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 656568.73
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 660186.10
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 666776
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 680097.20
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727513.81
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 711544.92
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 724984.57
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 715766.50
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 684946.78
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 666215.94
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 667556.57
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 658380.62
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 660622.70
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 689431.12
jan 2019
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.5
Dengan Data Acuan 12 Bulan

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 706480 0 0 jan
-2496.64 706480 -15604 15604 0.022586 feb
-553.24 697741.76 12146.24 12146.24 0.01711 mar
-2960.76 702047.01 -15047.0144 15047.01 0.021902 apr
-2059.56 693067.44 5632.55526 5632.56 0.008061 mei
2218.70 693260.91 26739.0882 26739.09 0.037138 jun
12254.66 706175.25 62724.7539 62724.75 0.081577 jul
18235.49 743519.81 37380.1927 37380.19 0.047868 ags
-10021.69 776707.37 -176607.375 176607.37 0.294297 sep
-18908.53 696042.74 -55542.7355 55542.74 0.086718 okt
-15059.11 654917.11 24058.8859 24058.89 0.035434 nov
-8576.16 649481.56 40518.4369 40518.44 0.058722 des
657112.78 77907.2177 77907.22 0.105993 jan
472001.28 0.711414
42909.2071
6.467%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 690876 0 0 feb
3041.92 690876 19012 19012 0.026782 mar
718.28 701522.72 -14522.72 14522.72 0.021139 apr
1081.18 696431.92 2268.0832 2268.08 0.003246 mei
4533.93 698420.33 21579.6718 21579.67 0.029972 jun
13704.15 711586.12 57313.8775 57313.88 0.07454 jul
18933.61 748215.82 32684.1805 32684.18 0.041855 ags
-9886.08 780223.11 -180123.107 180123.11 0.300155 sep
-19132.13 698287.78 -57787.7818 57787.78 0.090223 okt
-15462.45 656040.54 22935.4582 22935.46 0.033779 nov
-9022.82 649752.27 40247.7289 40247.73 0.05833 des
3487.82 656828.55 78191.4546 78191.45 0.10638 jan
691592.94 51767.0574 51767.06 0.069639 feb
526666.06 0.786401
47878.733
7.149%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 709888 0 0 mar
-3662.08 709888 -22888 22888 0.033316 apr
-3401.40 697070.72 1629.28 1629.28 0.002332 mei
707.24 694321.04 25678.9632 25678.96 0.035665 jun
10883.26 705299.86 63600.139 63600.14 0.082716 jul
17167.55 741623.18 39276.8223 39276.82 0.050297 ags
-10736.68 774501.46 -174401.459 174401.46 0.290621 sep
-19297.35 694004.19 -53504.1948 53504.19 0.083535 okt
-15190.02 653305.16 25670.8351 25670.84 0.037808 nov
-8531.38 648383.48 41616.5194 41616.52 0.060314 des
4032.03 656498.71 78521.2869 78521.29 0.106829 jan
12259.35 691939.26 51420.7415 51420.74 0.069173 feb
724766.90 -36206.9044 36206.90 0.052584 mar
578208.24 0.852605
52564.3856
7.751%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 687000 0 0 apr
1872.00 687000 11700 11700 0.016745 mei
6103.68 693552 26448 26448 0.036733 jun
15490.10 710234.88 58665.12 58665.12 0.076297 jul
20563.53 749191.03 31708.9728 31708.97 0.040606 ags
-8610.57 782438.15 -182338.151 182338.15 0.303846 sep
-18273.34 700892.32 -60392.3214 60392.32 0.094289 okt
-14991.11 658462.05 20513.9479 20513.95 0.030213 nov
-8859.35 651676.52 38323.4779 38323.48 0.055541 des
3440.40 658146.56 76873.4393 76873.44 0.104587 jan
11604.18 692336.33 51023.6659 51023.67 0.068639 feb
5877.79 724349.98 -35789.9847 35789.98 0.051978 mar
715911.78 -10531.7775 10531.78 0.014931 apr
593777.08 0.879476
53979.7346
7.995%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 698700 0 0 mei
3408.00 698700 21300 21300 0.029583 jun
12731.52 710628 58272 58272 0.075786 jul
18208.59 746668.32 34231.68 34231.68 0.043836 ags
-10346.54 778569.58 -178469.581 178469.58 0.2974 sep
-19360.18 696835.20 -56335.2044 56335.20 0.087955 okt
-15514.57 654940.95 24035.0542 24035.05 0.035399 nov
-8961.03 649040.40 40959.6007 40959.60 0.059362 des
3608.05 656463.21 78556.7924 78556.79 0.106877 jan
11906.62 691493.98 51866.0207 51866.02 0.069772 feb
6212.70 724147.01 -35587.0056 35587.01 0.051683 mar
4493.51 716124.90 -10744.9005 10744.90 0.015233 apr
716320.45 17679.5466 17679.55 0.024087 mei
590357.84 0.872887
53668.8945
7.935%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 720000 0 0 jun
7824.00 720000 48900 48900 0.063597 jul
13186.56 747384 33516 33516 0.04292 ags
-14633.75 773976.96 -173876.96 173876.96 0.289747 sep
-22520.54 689792.42 -49292.4224 49292.42 0.076959 okt
-17493.17 647554.91 31421.0877 31421.09 0.046277 nov
-9914.00 642630.18 47369.8198 47369.82 0.068652 des
3422.95 651664.11 83355.8879 83355.89 0.113406 jan
12211.84 688429.41 54930.5866 54930.59 0.073895 feb
6763.28 722613.49 -34053.488 34053.49 0.049456 mar
5103.22 715755.37 -10375.3746 10375.37 0.014709 apr
7869.87 716708.45 17291.5533 17291.55 0.023558 mei
731494.94 -40934.9385 40934.94 0.059278 jun
584383.18 0.863176
53125.7437
7.847%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 768900 0 0 jul
1920.00 768900 12000 12000 0.015367 ags
-26163.20 775620 -175520 175520 0.292485 sep
-32363.01 679248.80 -38748.8 38748.80 0.060498 okt
-24748.65 631386.27 47589.728 47589.73 0.07009 nov
-14456.41 625673.51 64326.4883 64326.49 0.093227 des
1235.16 636947.69 98072.3064 98072.31 0.133428 jan
11786.87 677411.77 65948.2282 65948.23 0.088716 feb
7464.00 715577.94 -27017.9352 27017.94 0.039238 mar
6367.24 712234.76 -6854.76364 6854.76 0.009718 apr
9269.62 715860.10 18139.9015 18139.90 0.024714 mei
2577.52 732385.68 -41825.6837 41825.68 0.060568 jun
718232.93 -17332.9254 17332.93 0.02473 jul
596043.83 0.888049
54185.8032
8.073%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 780900 0 0 ags
-28928.00 780900 -180800 180800 0.301283 sep
-35192.32 679652 -39152 39152 0.061127 okt
-27163.98 628798.88 50177.12 50177.12 0.073901 nov
-16236.90 621705.75 68294.2528 68294.25 0.098977 des
120.45 632786.55 102233.452 102233.45 0.139089 jan
11249.99 673800.38 69559.6192 69559.62 0.093575 feb
7359.72 712874.22 -24314.2195 24314.22 0.035312 mar
6539.20 710508.25 -5128.24763 5128.25 0.00727 apr
9579.81 714996.14 19003.8551 19003.86 0.025891 mei
2921.01 732177.50 -41617.5001 41617.50 0.060266 jun
112.77 718451.51 -17551.5132 17551.51 0.025041 jul
711543.68 33936.3211 33936.32 0.045523 ags
617831.78 0.921733
56166.5254
8.379%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 600100 0 0 sep
6464.00 600100 40400 40400 0.063076 okt
15464.32 622724 56252 56252 0.082848 nov
20154.06 660689.12 29310.88 29310.88 0.04248 des
26946.46 692567.53 42452.4672 42452.47 0.057757 jan
28044.86 736494.98 6865.02477 6865.02 0.009235 feb
15448.72 767285.84 -78725.8447 78725.84 0.114334 mar
8110.45 751244.23 -45864.2312 45864.23 0.065021 apr
6989.01 741008.99 -7008.98608 7008.99 0.009549 mei
-1752.49 745194.40 -54634.4013 54634.40 0.079116 jun
-5062.60 721588.15 -20688.1462 20688.15 0.029517 jul
894.16 708250.29 37229.7103 37229.71 0.049941 ags
724036.33 -6036.3295 6036.33 0.008407 sep
419431.69 0.602872
38130.1538
5.481%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 640500 0 0 okt
6156.16 640500 38476 38476 0.056668 nov
10628.71 662046.56 27953.44 27953.44 0.040512 des
18814.85 683856.65 51163.3536 51163.35 0.069608 jan
22050.55 723136.83 20223.1652 20223.17 0.027205 feb
11695.89 753276.65 -64716.6543 64716.65 0.093988 mar
6302.95 739085.88 -33705.8813 33705.88 0.047784 apr
6637.91 731906.48 2093.52351 2093.52 0.002852 mei
-1173.58 739381.80 -48821.7974 48821.80 0.070699 jun
-4018.30 718679.50 -17779.5023 17779.50 0.025367 jul
2050.60 707549.40 37930.5951 37930.60 0.050881 ags
967.04 724772.24 -6772.24169 6772.24 0.009432 sep
723030.39 25529.6149 25529.61 0.034105 okt
349636.15 0.494996
31785.1049
4.500%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 678976 0 0 nov
1763.84 678976 11024 11024 0.015977 des
9743.13 685149.44 49870.56 49870.56 0.067849 jan
14306.20 714840.79 28519.2064 28519.21 0.038365 feb
5987.05 740554.68 -51994.6788 51994.68 0.075512 mar
2728.84 725743.86 -20363.8613 20363.86 0.028869 apr
4916.49 720327.15 13672.847 13672.85 0.018628 mei
-1507.95 730712.78 -40152.7835 40152.78 0.058145 jun
-3466.95 713143.72 -12243.7165 12243.72 0.017469 jul
3045.17 704779.28 40700.7184 40700.72 0.054597 ags
2068.41 724104.74 -6104.73565 6104.74 0.008502 sep
6041.01 723731.25 24828.7496 24828.75 0.033169 okt
739703.76 -21423.7591 21423.76 0.029826 nov
299475.86 0.417082
27225.0779
3.792%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 690000 0 0 des
7203.20 690000 45020 45020 0.06125 jan
11707.01 715211.2 28148.8 28148.8 0.037867 feb
3768.17 738177.73 -49617.728 49617.73 0.07206 mar
1093.16 722098.81 -16718.8083 16718.81 0.023702 apr
3892.45 716504.45 17495.5528 17495.55 0.023836 mei
-2001.17 727395.12 -36835.1189 36835.12 0.053341 jun
-3562.75 710659.90 -9759.90298 9759.90 0.013925 jul
3203.14 703193.19 42286.8111 42286.81 0.056724 ags
2353.37 723311.05 -5311.05026 5311.05 0.007397 sep
6356.57 723540.00 25020.001 25020.00 0.033424 okt
2896.64 739904.57 -21624.5684 21624.57 0.030106 nov
734151.38 -25431.3791 25431.38 0.035884 des
297838.34 0.413632
27076.2129
3.760%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 735020 0 0 jan
1334.40 735020 8340 8340 0.011219 feb
-6846.46 739690.4 -51130.4 51130.4 0.074257 mar
-7968.35 712391.78 -7011.776 7011.78 0.00994 apr
-2787.34 701618.72 32381.2826 32381.28 0.044116 mei
-6183.16 711783.89 -21223.8875 21223.89 0.030734 jun
-5576.95 697111.17 3788.83244 3788.83 0.005406 jul
2811.89 693049.75 52430.2512 52430.25 0.070331 ags
2998.49 716833.74 1166.2623 1166.26 0.001624 sep
7520.29 720298.73 28261.267 28261.27 0.037754 okt
4185.33 739123.53 -20843.5329 20843.53 0.029019 nov
-14.90 734971.45 -26251.4476 26251.45 0.037041 des
724455.96 -57679.9648 57679.96 0.086506 jan
252828.94 0.351442
22984.4491
3.195%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 743360 0 0 feb
-8768.00 743360 -54800 54800 0.079586 mar
-9934.72 712672 -7292 7292 0.010338 apr
-4466.00 699820.48 34179.52 34179.52 0.046566 mei
-7420.60 709026.29 -18466.2912 18466.29 0.026741 jun
-6351.67 694219.17 6680.82867 6680.83 0.009532 jul
2438.76 690539.83 54940.168 54940.17 0.073698 ags
2926.01 714954.66 3045.34473 3045.34 0.004241 sep
7639.80 719098.80 29461.1956 29461.20 0.039357 okt
4400.91 738523.09 -20243.0852 20243.09 0.028183 nov
223.83 734826.76 -26106.76 26106.76 0.036836 des
-9029.27 724607.88 -57831.8833 57831.88 0.086734 jan
692445.86 7633.14404 7633.14 0.010903 feb
313047.08 0.441812
28458.8252
4.016%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 688560 0 0 mar
2691.20 688560 16820 16820 0.023845 apr
8454.53 697979.2 36020.8 36020.8 0.049075 mei
3609.40 720842.05 -30282.048 30282.05 0.043851 jun
1779.22 712338.63 -11438.6291 11438.63 0.01632 jul
7529.24 709542.40 35937.6029 35937.60 0.048207 ags
5377.77 731446.67 -13446.6744 13446.67 0.018728 sep
8116.04 731445.77 17114.2271 17114.23 0.022863 okt
3615.64 746407.51 -28127.5083 28127.51 0.03916 nov
-1192.70 738772.15 -30052.1482 30052.15 0.042403 des
-10597.91 725558.59 -58782.5884 58782.59 0.088159 jan
-9216.90 691447.64 8631.36156 8631.36 0.012329 feb
685683.29 104962.714 104962.71 0.132756 mar
286653.59 0.404941
26059.4171
3.681%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 705380 0 0 apr
4579.20 705380 28620 28620 0.038992 mei
-356.35 721407.2 -30847.2 30847.2 0.04467 jun
-1606.27 708711.97 -7811.968 7811.97 0.011146 jul
5033.59 703980.91 41499.0861 41499.09 0.055668 ags
3815.33 725614.14 -7614.13524 7614.14 0.010605 sep
7363.52 726383.81 22176.1936 22176.19 0.029625 okt
3469.47 742617.80 -24337.8001 24337.80 0.033883 nov
-951.68 736352.15 -27632.1483 27632.15 0.038989 des
-10163.13 724347.61 -57571.6135 57571.61 0.086343 jan
-8735.43 691155.83 8923.16558 8923.17 0.012746 feb
8009.59 685989.67 104656.327 104656.33 0.132368 mar
735861.79 -81515.7892 81515.79 0.124576 apr
361689.64 0.495034
32880.8761
4.500%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 734000 0 0 mei
-6950.40 734000 -43440 43440 0.062905 jun
-8354.18 709673.6 -8773.6 8773.6 0.012518 jul
-726.97 697809.98 47670.016 47670.02 0.063945 ags
-431.14 716151.02 1848.98304 1848.98 0.002575 sep
4704.95 716459.47 32100.526 32100.53 0.042883 okt
2189.01 734004.63 -15724.6324 15724.63 0.021892 nov
-1200.40 729903.79 -21183.7863 21183.79 0.02989 des
-9753.02 720229.87 -53453.8728 53453.87 0.080168 jan
-7995.63 689095.31 10983.695 10983.69 0.015689 feb
8828.83 685493.16 105152.844 105152.84 0.132996 mar
-4297.11 736383.12 -82037.121 82037.12 0.125373 apr
699271.16 35506.8391 35506.84 0.048323 may
422369.08 0.590835
38397.1888
5.371%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 690560 0 0 jun
1654.40 690560 10340 10340 0.014752 jul
9515.14 696350.4 49129.6 49129.6 0.065903 ags
8312.36 725517.38 -7517.376 7517.38 0.01047 sep
11150.31 730822.78 17737.2186 17737.22 0.023695 okt
6224.23 749067.98 -30787.9797 30787.98 0.042863 nov
743.11 742977.02 -34257.0219 34257.02 0.048336 des
-9375.50 730017.32 -63241.3237 63241.32 0.094846 jan
-8618.11 695345.29 4733.70702 4733.71 0.006762 feb
7705.95 688620.67 102025.332 102025.33 0.12904 mar
-5540.57 737136.75 -82790.7457 82790.75 0.126524 apr
267.13 698479.87 36298.1268 36298.13 0.0494 may
713266.25 -25610.25 25610.25 0.037243 jun
438858.43 0.612594
39896.2211
5.569%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 700900 0 0 jul
7132.80 700900 44580 44580 0.0598 ags
5874.43 725864.8 -7864.8 7864.8 0.010954 sep
9069.10 728593.31 19966.688 19966.69 0.026673 okt
4690.05 745649.09 -27369.0893 27369.09 0.038104 nov
-217.39 739391.50 -30671.5014 30671.50 0.043277 des
-9838.11 726905.51 -60129.5084 60129.51 0.090179 jan
-8707.97 693015.59 7063.40873 7063.41 0.010089 feb
7854.11 687132.99 103513.014 103513.01 0.130922 mar
-5273.30 736392.31 -82046.3056 82046.31 0.125387 apr
563.11 698300.49 36477.5117 36477.51 0.049644 may
-3564.67 713454.60 -25798.5998 25798.60 0.037517 jun
699570.49 -63892.4907 63892.49 0.100511 jul
445480.43 0.622547
40498.2206
5.660%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 745480 0 0 ags
-4396.80 745480 -27480 27480 0.038273 sep
-1441.79 730091.2 18468.8 18468.8 0.024672 okt
-4282.90 736036.93 -17756.928 17756.93 0.024721 nov
-6831.90 724651.26 -15931.2563 15931.26 0.022479 des
-13979.24 711446.85 -44670.8523 44670.85 0.066995 jan
-10702.48 679599.27 20479.7265 20479.73 0.029253 feb
7466.69 677088.68 113557.318 113557.32 0.143626 mar
-4634.48 729978.30 -75632.2987 75632.30 0.115585 apr
1715.46 695090.90 39687.0994 39687.10 0.054012 may
-2288.57 712681.20 -25025.1977 25025.20 0.036392 jun
-12641.30 700382.54 -64704.5443 64704.54 0.101788 jul
661859.43 -7071.42515 7071.43 0.0108 aug
463394.02 0.657798
42126.7291
5.980%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 718000 0 0 sep
4889.60 718000 30560 30560 0.040825 okt
2196.22 735113.6 -16833.6 16833.6 0.023436 nov
-1300.80 730576.38 -21856.384 21856.38 0.030839 des
-9901.92 720533.03 -53757.033 53757.03 0.080622 jan
-8149.81 689128.30 10950.7029 10950.70 0.015642 feb
8696.15 685358.77 105287.232 105287.23 0.133166 mar
-4395.66 736169.81 -81823.8077 81823.81 0.125047 apr
1321.68 699044.62 35733.3777 35733.38 0.048632 may
-2998.91 714659.65 -27003.6514 27003.65 0.039269 jun
-13427.91 700859.28 -65181.2847 65181.28 0.102538 jul
-14479.25 661358.86 -6570.85914 6570.86 0.010035 aug
644251.27 46555.7337 46555.73 0.067393 sep
455557.93 0.650051
41414.3575
5.910%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 718000 0 0 sep
4889.60 718000 30560 30560 0.040825 okt
2196.22 735113.6 -16833.6 16833.6 0.023436 nov
-1300.80 730576.38 -21856.384 21856.38 0.030839 des
-9901.92 720533.03 -53757.033 53757.03 0.080622 jan
-8149.81 689128.30 10950.7029 10950.70 0.015642 feb
8696.15 685358.77 105287.232 105287.23 0.133166 mar
-4395.66 736169.81 -81823.8077 81823.81 0.125047 apr
1321.68 699044.62 35733.3777 35733.38 0.048632 may
-2998.91 714659.65 -27003.6514 27003.65 0.039269 jun
-13427.91 700859.28 -65181.2847 65181.28 0.102538 jul
-14479.25 661358.86 -6570.85914 6570.86 0.010035 aug
644251.27 46555.7337 46555.73 0.067393 sep
455557.93 0.650051
41414.3575
5.910%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 748560 0 0 okt
-4844.80 748560 -30280 30280 0.042156 nov
-8506.11 731603.2 -22883.2 22883.2 0.032288 des
-16052.96 713943.81 -47167.808 47167.81 0.07074 jan
-12684.12 679023.72 21055.2765 21055.28 0.030076 feb
5857.37 674761.72 115884.283 115884.28 0.146569 mar
-5762.92 726972.80 -72626.7985 72626.80 0.110991 apr
1056.09 692159.16 42618.8404 42618.84 0.058002 may
-2560.99 710262.79 -22606.7907 22606.79 0.032875 jun
-12637.96 698659.08 -62981.0828 62981.08 0.099077 jul
-13604.47 660828.68 -6040.68488 6040.68 0.009225 aug
-6244.62 644807.94 45999.0635 45999.06 0.066587 sep
656962.94 -406.937672 406.94 0.00062 oct
490143.83 0.698588
44558.5298
6.351%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 718280 0 0 nov
-1529.60 718280 -9560 9560 0.013489 des
-8913.66 712926.4 -46150.4 46150.4 0.069214 jan
-6589.44 685552.58 14526.424 14526.42 0.02075 feb
10350.13 684773.71 105872.291 105872.29 0.133906 mar
-2950.15 737472.76 -83126.756 83126.76 0.127038 apr
2410.82 701271.90 33506.097 33506.10 0.0456 may
-2297.84 717085.17 -29429.1667 29429.17 0.042796 jun
-13071.87 703015.66 -67337.6582 67337.66 0.10593 jul
-14387.18 663008.73 -8220.72785 8220.73 0.012555 aug
-7111.38 645333.25 45473.7468 45473.75 0.065827 sep
-7088.24 656411.37 144.632153 144.63 0.00022 oct
649380.98 27274.0222 27274.02 0.040307 nov
443347.90 0.637326
40304.3545
5.794%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 708720 0 0 des
-6711.04 708720 -41944 41944 0.062906 jan
-4335.42 685231.36 14847.64 14847.64 0.021209 feb
12274.34 686835.00 103811.002 103811.00 0.131299 mar
-1531.70 740633.74 -86287.7417 86287.74 0.131869 apr
3298.87 704586.95 30191.051 30191.05 0.041089 may
-1870.13 719962.24 -32306.2415 32306.24 0.04698 jun
-12988.79 705169.62 -69491.6184 69491.62 0.109319 jul
-14524.18 664384.19 -9596.1856 9596.19 0.014655 aug
-7358.50 646021.54 44785.4638 44785.46 0.064831 sep
-7361.90 656577.22 -21.220787 21.22 3.232E-05 oct
-2970.19 649206.84 27448.1638 27448.16 0.040564 nov
657215.91 81684.0883 81684.09 0.110548 dec
460730.33 0.664753
41884.5753
6.043%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 666776 0 0 jan
5328.48 666776 33303 33303 0.04757 feb
22163.73 685425.68 105220.32 105220.32 0.133081 mar
6910.68 749677.54 -95331.5392 95331.54 0.14569 apr
9522.27 718455.61 16322.3916 16322.39 0.022214 may
2026.13 734506.83 -46850.8326 46850.83 0.068131 jun
-11112.21 717792.63 -82114.6339 82114.63 0.129176 jul
-14159.66 673834.57 -19046.5733 19046.57 0.029088 aug
-7959.54 652056.29 38750.7148 38750.71 0.056095 sep
-8446.11 659597.03 -3041.02667 3041.03 0.004632 oct
-4170.83 649934.51 26720.4927 26720.49 0.039489 nov
9020.87 656451.87 82448.1255 82448.13 0.111582 dec
698451.99 jan
549149.65 0.786749
49922.6955
7.152%
TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
2016 706,480.00 706,480.00 706480 0 706480 0
2016 690,876.00 690,876.00 698678.00 -3901.00 706480 -15604
2016 709,888.00 709,888.00 702332.50 -123.25 694777 15111
2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 694604.63 -3925.56 702209.25 -15209.25
2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 694689.53 -1920.33 690679.06 8020.9375
2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 706384.60 4887.37 692769.20 27230.79688
2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 740085.99 19294.38 711271.97 57628.02734
2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 770140.18 24674.29 759380.36 21519.63574
2016 600,100.00 600,100.00 697457.23 -24004.33 794814.47 -194714.469
2016 640,500.00 640,500.00 656976.45 -32242.56 673452.90 -32952.90411
2016 678,976.00 678,976.00 651854.95 -18682.03 624733.90 54242.10435
2016 690,000.00 690,000.00 661586.46 -4475.26 633172.92 56827.0825
2017 735,020.00 735,020.00 657111.20 77908.80095
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 690,876.00 690876 690876 0 690876 0
2016 709,888.00 709888 700382.00 4753.00 690876 19012
2016 687,000.00 687000 696067.50 219.25 705135 -18135
2016 698,700.00 698700 697493.38 822.56 696286.75 2413.25
2016 720,000.00 720000 709157.97 6243.58 698315.94 21684.0625
2016 768,900.00 768900 742150.77 19618.19 715401.55 53498.45313
2016 780,900.00 780900 771334.48 24400.95 761768.96 19131.03516
2016 600,100.00 600100 697917.72 -24507.91 795735.43 -195635.4326
2016 640,500.00 640500 656954.90 -32735.36 673409.81 -32909.80835
2016 678,976.00 678976 651597.77 -19046.25 624219.54 54756.45587
2016 690,000.00 690000 661275.76 -4684.13 632551.53 57448.47401
2017 735,020.00 735020 695805.82 14922.96 656591.64 78428.36458
2017 743,360.00 743360 710728.78 32631.21872
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 709,888.00 709888 709888 0 709888 0
2016 687,000.00 687000 698444.00 -5722.00 709888 -22888
2016 698,700.00 698700 695711.00 -4227.50 692722 5978
2016 720,000.00 720000 705741.75 2901.63 691483.50 28516.5
2016 768,900.00 768900 738771.69 17965.78 708643.38 60256.625
2016 780,900.00 780900 768818.73 24006.41 756737.47 24162.53125
2016 600,100.00 600100 696462.57 -24174.87 792825.15 -192725.1484
2016 640,500.00 640500 656393.85 -32121.80 672287.70 -31787.70117
2016 678,976.00 678976 651624.03 -18445.81 624272.05 54703.94775
2016 690,000.00 690000 661589.11 -4240.37 633178.21 56821.78528
2017 735,020.00 735020 696184.37 15177.45 657348.74 77671.25772
2017 743,360.00 743360 727360.91 23176.99 711361.82 31998.17951
2017 688,560.00 688560 750537.90 -61977.90447
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 687,000.00 687000 687000 0 687000 0
2016 698,700.00 698700 692850.00 2925.00 687000 11700
2016 720,000.00 720000 707887.50 8981.25 695775 24225
2016 768,900.00 768900 742884.38 21989.06 716868.75 52031.25
2016 780,900.00 780900 772886.72 25995.70 764873.44 16026.5625
2016 600,100.00 600100 699491.21 -23699.90 798882.42 -198782.4219
2016 640,500.00 640500 658145.65 -32522.73 675791.31 -35291.30859
2016 678,976.00 678976 652299.46 -19184.46 625622.92 53353.0752
2016 690,000.00 690000 661557.50 -4963.21 633115.00 56884.99829
2017 735,020.00 735020 695807.14 14643.22 656594.29 78425.71027
2017 743,360.00 743360 726905.18 22870.63 710450.36 32909.63869
2017 688,560.00 688560 719167.90 7566.67 749775.81 -61215.80677
2017 705,380.00 705380 726734.58 -21354.57781
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 698,700.00 698700 698700 0 698700 0
2016 720,000.00 720000 709350.00 5325.00 698700 21300
2016 768,900.00 768900 741787.50 18881.25 714675 54225
2016 780,900.00 780900 770784.38 23939.06 760668.75 20231.25
2016 600,100.00 600100 697411.72 -24716.80 794723.44 -194623.4375
2016 640,500.00 640500 656597.46 -32765.53 672694.92 -32194.92188
2016 678,976.00 678976 651403.97 -18979.51 623831.93 55144.06641
2016 690,000.00 690000 661212.23 -4585.62 632424.46 57575.54395
2017 735,020.00 735020 695823.30 15012.72 656626.60 78393.39673
2017 743,360.00 743360 727098.01 23143.72 710836.03 32523.97394
2017 688,560.00 688560 719400.87 7723.29 750241.73 -61681.73094
2017 705,380.00 705380 716252.08 2287.25 727124.15 -21744.15065
2017 734,000.00 734000 718539.32 15460.67716
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 720,000.00 720000 720000 0 720000 0
2016 768,900.00 768900 744450.00 12225.00 720000 48900
2016 780,900.00 780900 768787.50 18281.25 756675 24225
2016 600,100.00 600100 693584.38 -28460.94 787068.75 -186968.75
2016 640,500.00 640500 652811.72 -34616.80 665123.44 -24623.4375
2016 678,976.00 678976 648585.46 -19421.53 618194.92 60781.07813
2016 690,000.00 690000 659581.97 -4212.51 629163.93 60836.06641
2017 735,020.00 735020 695194.73 15700.13 655369.46 79650.54395
2017 743,360.00 743360 727127.43 23816.41 710894.85 32465.14673
2017 688,560.00 688560 719751.92 8220.45 750943.84 -62383.83856
2017 705,380.00 705380 716676.19 2572.36 727972.37 -22592.37157
2017 734,000.00 734000 726624.27 6260.22 719248.55 14751.45482
2017 690,560.00 690560 732884.50 -42324.49569
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 768,900.00 768900 768900 0 768900 0
2016 780,900.00 780900 774900.00 3000.00 768900 12000
2016 600,100.00 600100 689000.00 -41450.00 777900 -177800
2016 640,500.00 640500 644025.00 -43212.50 647550.00 -7050
2016 678,976.00 678976 639894.25 -23671.63 600812.50 78163.5
2016 690,000.00 690000 653111.31 -5227.28 616222.63 73777.375
2017 735,020.00 735020 691452.02 16556.71 647884.03 87135.96875
2017 743,360.00 743360 725684.36 25394.53 708008.73 35351.27344
2017 688,560.00 688560 719819.45 9764.81 751078.89 -62518.89258
2017 705,380.00 705380 717482.13 3713.74 729584.25 -24204.25244
2017 734,000.00 734000 727597.93 6914.78 721195.87 12804.13074
2017 690,560.00 690560 712536.36 -4073.40 734512.71 -43952.71036
2017 700,900.00 700900 708462.95 -7562.953316
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 780,900.00 780900 780900 0 780900 0
2016 600,100.00 600100 690500.00 -45200.00 780900 -180800
2016 640,500.00 640500 642900.00 -46400.00 645300 -4800
2016 678,976.00 678976 637738.00 -25781.00 596500.00 82476
2016 690,000.00 690000 650978.50 -6270.25 611957.00 78043
2017 735,020.00 735020 689864.13 16307.69 644708.25 90311.75
2017 743,360.00 743360 724765.91 25604.73 706171.81 37188.1875
2017 688,560.00 688560 719465.32 10152.07 750370.64 -61810.64063
2017 705,380.00 705380 717498.70 4092.73 729617.39 -24237.39453
2017 734,000.00 734000 727795.71 7194.87 721591.42 12408.57715
2017 690,560.00 690560 712775.29 -3912.78 734990.58 -44430.5813
2017 700,900.00 700900 704881.26 -5903.40 708862.52 -7962.515198
2017 745,480.00 745480 698977.85 46502.14665
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 600,100.00 600100 600100 0 600100 0
2016 640,500.00 640500 620300.00 10100.00 600100 40400
2016 678,976.00 678976 654688.00 22244.00 630400 48576
2016 690,000.00 690000 683466.00 25511.00 676932.00 13068
2017 735,020.00 735020 721998.50 32021.75 708977.00 26043
2017 743,360.00 743360 748690.13 29356.69 754020.25 -10660.25
2017 688,560.00 688560 733303.41 6984.98 778046.81 -89486.8125
2017 705,380.00 705380 722834.20 -1742.11 740288.39 -34908.39063
2017 734,000.00 734000 727546.04 1484.87 721092.08 12907.91797
2017 690,560.00 690560 709795.45 -8132.86 729030.91 -38470.90723
2017 700,900.00 700900 701281.30 -8323.51 701662.59 -762.5930176
2017 745,480.00 745480 719218.89 4807.04 692957.79 52522.21234
2017 718,000.00 718000 724025.94 -6025.938065
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 640,500.00 640500 640500 0 640500 0
2016 678,976.00 678976 659738.00 9619.00 640500 38476
2016 690,000.00 690000 679678.50 14779.75 669357 20643
2017 735,020.00 735020 714739.13 24920.19 694458.25 40561.75
2017 743,360.00 743360 741509.66 25845.36 739659.31 3700.6875
2017 688,560.00 688560 727957.51 6146.61 767355.02 -78795.01563
2017 705,380.00 705380 719742.06 -1034.42 734104.11 -28724.11328
2017 734,000.00 734000 726353.82 2788.67 718707.63 15292.36621
2017 690,560.00 690560 709851.24 -6856.95 729142.49 -38582.4856
2017 700,900.00 700900 701947.15 -7380.53 702994.29 -2094.2901
2017 745,480.00 745480 720023.31 5347.82 694566.62 50913.38017
2017 718,000.00 718000 721685.56 3505.04 725371.13 -7371.129734
2017 748,560.00 748560 725190.60 23369.39775
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 678,976.00 678976 678976 0 678976 0
2016 690,000.00 690000 684488.00 2756.00 678976 11024
2017 735,020.00 735020 711132.00 14700.00 687244 47776
2017 743,360.00 743360 734596.00 19082.00 725832.00 17528
2017 688,560.00 688560 721119.00 2802.50 753678.00 -65118
2017 705,380.00 705380 714650.75 -1832.88 723921.50 -18541.5
2017 734,000.00 734000 723408.94 3462.66 712817.88 21182.125
2017 690,560.00 690560 708715.80 -5615.24 726871.59 -36311.59375
2017 700,900.00 700900 702000.28 -6165.38 703100.55 -2200.554688
2017 745,480.00 745480 720657.45 6245.90 695834.90 49645.10352
2017 718,000.00 718000 722451.67 4020.06 726903.34 -8903.343262
2017 748,560.00 748560 737515.87 9542.13 726471.73 22088.26917
2017 718,280.00 718280 747057.99 -28777.99191
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 690,000.00 690000 690000 0 690000 0
2017 735,020.00 735020 712510.00 11255.00 690000 45020
2017 743,360.00 743360 733562.50 16153.75 723765 19595
2017 688,560.00 688560 719138.13 864.69 749716.25 -61156.25
2017 705,380.00 705380 712691.41 -2791.02 720002.81 -14622.8125
2017 734,000.00 734000 721950.20 3233.89 709900.39 24099.60938
2017 690,560.00 690560 707872.04 -5422.13 725184.08 -34624.08203
2017 700,900.00 700900 701674.95 -5809.61 702449.91 -1549.907227
2017 745,480.00 745480 720672.67 6594.05 695865.34 49614.65698
2017 718,000.00 718000 722633.36 4277.37 727266.73 -9266.725159
2017 748,560.00 748560 737735.37 9689.69 726910.73 21649.26506
2017 718,280.00 718280 732852.53 2403.42 747425.06 -29145.0561
2017 708,720.00 708720 735255.95 -26535.95265
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 735,020.00 735020 735020 0 735020 0
2017 743,360.00 743360 739190.00 2085.00 735020 8340
2017 688,560.00 688560 714917.50 -11093.75 741275 -52715
2017 705,380.00 705380 704601.88 -10704.69 703823.75 1556.25
2017 734,000.00 734000 713948.59 -678.98 693897.19 40102.8125
2017 690,560.00 690560 701914.80 -6356.39 713269.61 -22709.60938
2017 700,900.00 700900 698229.21 -5020.99 695558.42 5341.582031
2017 745,480.00 745480 719344.11 8046.95 693208.22 52271.78223
2017 718,000.00 718000 722695.53 5699.19 727391.06 -9391.063232
2017 748,560.00 748560 738477.36 10740.51 728394.72 20165.27985
2017 718,280.00 718280 733748.93 3006.04 749217.87 -30937.86858
2017 708,720.00 708720 722737.49 -4002.70 736754.98 -28034.97564
2018 666,776.00 666776 718734.79 -51958.78527
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 743,360.00 743360 743360 0 743360 0
2017 688,560.00 688560 715960.00 -13700.00 743360 -54800
2017 705,380.00 705380 703820.00 -12920.00 702260 3120
2017 734,000.00 734000 712450.00 -2145.00 690900.00 43100
2017 690,560.00 690560 700432.50 -7081.25 710305.00 -19745
2017 700,900.00 700900 697125.63 -5194.06 693351.25 7548.75
2017 745,480.00 745480 718705.78 8193.05 691931.56 53548.4375
2017 718,000.00 718000 722449.41 5968.34 726898.83 -8898.828125
2017 748,560.00 748560 738488.88 11003.90 728417.75 20142.24609
2017 718,280.00 718280 733886.39 3200.71 749492.78 -31212.77832
2017 708,720.00 708720 722903.55 -3891.07 737087.10 -28367.09595
2018 666,776.00 666776 692894.24 -16950.19 719012.48 -52236.48077
2018 700,079.00 700079 675944.05 24134.94701
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 688,560.00 688560 688560 0 688560 0
2017 705,380.00 705380 696970.00 4205.00 688560 16820
2017 734,000.00 734000 717587.50 12411.25 701175 32825
2017 690,560.00 690560 710279.38 2551.56 729998.75 -39438.75
2017 700,900.00 700900 706865.47 -431.17 712830.94 -11930.9375
2017 745,480.00 745480 725957.15 9330.25 706434.30 39045.70313
2017 718,000.00 718000 726643.70 5008.40 735287.40 -17287.40234
2017 748,560.00 748560 740106.05 9235.38 731652.10 16907.89551
2017 718,280.00 718280 733810.71 1470.02 749341.43 -31061.42944
2017 708,720.00 708720 722000.37 -5170.16 735280.73 -26560.73456
2018 666,776.00 666776 691803.10 -17683.71 716830.20 -50054.20348
2018 700,079.00 700079 687099.19 -11193.81 674119.39 25959.61293
2018 790,646.00 790646 675905.38 114740.6179
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 705,380.00 705380 705380 0 705380 0
2017 734,000.00 734000 719690.00 7155.00 705380 28620
2017 690,560.00 690560 708702.50 -1916.25 726845 -36285
2017 700,900.00 700900 703843.13 -3387.81 706786.25 -5886.25
2017 745,480.00 745480 722967.66 7868.36 700455.31 45024.6875
2017 718,000.00 718000 724418.01 4659.36 730836.02 -12836.01563
2017 748,560.00 748560 738818.68 9530.01 729077.36 19482.63672
2017 718,280.00 718280 733314.35 2012.84 748348.70 -30068.69629
2017 708,720.00 708720 722023.59 -4638.96 735327.19 -26607.18872
2018 666,776.00 666776 692080.32 -17291.12 717384.64 -50608.63776
2018 700,079.00 700079 687434.10 -10968.67 674789.20 25289.79716
2018 790,646.00 790646 733555.72 17576.47 676465.43 114180.5653
2018 654,346.00 654346 751132.19 -96786.19191
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 734,000.00 734000 734000 0 734000 0
2017 690,560.00 690560 712280.00 -10860.00 734000 -43440
2017 700,900.00 700900 701160.00 -10990.00 701420 -520
2017 745,480.00 745480 717825.00 2837.50 690170.00 55310
2017 718,000.00 718000 719331.25 2171.88 720662.50 -2662.5
2017 748,560.00 748560 735031.56 8936.09 721503.13 27056.875
2017 718,280.00 718280 731123.83 2514.18 743967.66 -25687.65625
2017 708,720.00 708720 721179.00 -3715.32 733638.01 -24918.00781
2018 666,776.00 666776 692119.84 -16387.24 717463.68 -50687.68164
2018 700,079.00 700079 687905.80 -10300.64 675732.60 24346.40186
2018 790,646.00 790646 734125.58 17959.57 677605.16 113040.8431
2018 654,346.00 654346 703215.57 -6475.22 752085.15 -97739.147
2018 734,778.00 734778 696740.36 38037.64468
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 690,560.00 690560 690560 0 690560 0
2017 700,900.00 700900 695730.00 2585.00 690560 10340
2017 745,480.00 745480 721897.50 14376.25 698315 47165
2017 718,000.00 718000 727136.88 9807.81 736273.75 -18273.75
2017 748,560.00 748560 742752.34 12711.64 736944.69 11615.3125
2017 718,280.00 718280 736871.99 3415.64 755463.98 -37183.98438
2017 708,720.00 708720 724503.82 -4476.26 740287.64 -31567.63672
2018 666,776.00 666776 693401.78 -17789.15 720027.55 -53251.55371
2018 700,079.00 700079 687845.81 -11672.56 675612.62 24466.37622
2018 790,646.00 790646 733409.63 16945.63 676173.25 114472.7471
2018 654,346.00 654346 702350.63 -7056.69 750355.25 -96009.2542
2018 734,778.00 734778 715035.97 2814.33 695293.94 39484.05869
2018 687,656.00 687656 717850.30 -30194.29954
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 700,900.00 700900 700900 0 700900 0
2017 745,480.00 745480 723190.00 11145.00 700900 44580
2017 718,000.00 718000 726167.50 7061.25 734335 -16335
2017 748,560.00 748560 740894.38 10894.06 733228.75 15331.25
2017 718,280.00 718280 735034.22 2516.95 751788.44 -33508.4375
2017 708,720.00 708720 723135.59 -4690.84 737551.17 -28831.17188
2018 666,776.00 666776 692610.37 -17608.03 718444.75 -51668.74609
2018 700,079.00 700079 687540.67 -11338.86 675002.35 25076.65332
2018 790,646.00 790646 733423.91 17272.18 676201.81 114444.1897
2018 654,346.00 654346 702521.04 -6815.34 750696.09 -96350.08954
2018 734,778.00 734778 715241.85 2952.74 695705.71 39072.29323
2018 687,656.00 687656 702925.29 -4681.91 718194.59 -30538.5887
2018 635,678.00 635678 698243.38 -62565.38248
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 745,480.00 745480 745480 0 745480 0
2017 718,000.00 718000 731740.00 -6870.00 745480 -27480
2017 748,560.00 748560 736715.00 -947.50 724870 23690
2017 718,280.00 718280 727023.75 -5319.38 735767.50 -17487.5
2017 708,720.00 708720 715212.19 -8565.47 721704.38 -12984.375
2018 666,776.00 666776 686711.36 -18533.15 706646.72 -39870.71875
2018 700,079.00 700079 684128.61 -10557.95 668178.21 31900.78906
2018 790,646.00 790646 732108.33 18710.89 673570.65 117075.3457
2018 654,346.00 654346 702582.61 -5407.42 750819.21 -96473.2124
2018 734,778.00 734778 715976.59 3993.29 697175.19 37602.81165
2018 687,656.00 687656 703812.94 -4085.18 719969.88 -32313.87924
2018 635,678.00 635678 667702.88 -20097.62 699727.75 -64049.75488
2018 654,788.00 654788 647605.25 7182.746027
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 718,000.00 718000 718000 0 718000 0
2017 748,560.00 748560 733280.00 7640.00 718000 30560
2017 718,280.00 718280 729600.00 1980.00 740920 -22640
2017 708,720.00 708720 720150.00 -3735.00 731580.00 -22860
2018 666,776.00 666776 691595.50 -16144.75 716415.00 -49639
2018 700,079.00 700079 687764.88 -9987.69 675450.75 24628.25
2018 790,646.00 790646 734211.59 18229.52 677777.19 112868.8125
2018 654,346.00 654346 703393.55 -6294.26 752441.11 -98095.10938
2018 734,778.00 734778 715938.65 3125.42 697099.29 37678.70703
2018 687,656.00 687656 703360.03 -4726.60 719064.06 -31408.06152
2018 635,678.00 635678 667155.72 -20465.46 698633.43 -62955.43042
2018 654,788.00 654788 650739.13 -18441.02 646690.26 8097.742737
2018 690,807.00 690807 632298.11 58508.89363
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 718,000.00 718000 718000 0 718000 0
2017 748,560.00 748560 733280.00 7640.00 718000 30560
2017 718,280.00 718280 729600.00 1980.00 740920 -22640
2017 708,720.00 708720 720150.00 -3735.00 731580.00 -22860
2018 666,776.00 666776 691595.50 -16144.75 716415.00 -49639
2018 700,079.00 700079 687764.88 -9987.69 675450.75 24628.25
2018 790,646.00 790646 734211.59 18229.52 677777.19 112868.8125
2018 654,346.00 654346 703393.55 -6294.26 752441.11 -98095.10938
2018 734,778.00 734778 715938.65 3125.42 697099.29 37678.70703
2018 687,656.00 687656 703360.03 -4726.60 719064.06 -31408.06152
2018 635,678.00 635678 667155.72 -20465.46 698633.43 -62955.43042
2018 654,788.00 654788 650739.13 -18441.02 646690.26 8097.742737
2018 690,807.00 690807 632298.11 58508.89363
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 748,560.00 748560 748560 0 748560 0
2017 718,280.00 718280 733420.00 -7570.00 748560 -30280
2017 708,720.00 708720 717285.00 -11852.50 725850 -17130
2018 666,776.00 666776 686104.25 -21516.63 705432.50 -38656.5
2018 700,079.00 700079 682333.31 -12643.78 664587.63 35491.375
2018 790,646.00 790646 730167.77 17595.34 669689.53 120956.4688
2018 654,346.00 654346 701054.55 -5758.94 747763.10 -93417.10156
2018 734,778.00 734778 715036.81 4111.66 695295.61 39482.38867
2018 687,656.00 687656 703402.23 -3761.46 719148.46 -31492.46338
2018 635,678.00 635678 667659.39 -19752.15 699640.77 -63962.77356
2018 654,788.00 654788 651347.62 -18031.96 647907.24 6880.76474
2018 690,807.00 690807 662061.33 -3659.12 633315.66 57491.3427
2018 656,556.00 656556 658402.20 -1846.203989
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 718,280.00 718280 718280 0 718280 0
2017 708,720.00 708720 713500.00 -2390.00 718280 -9560
2018 666,776.00 666776 688943.00 -13473.50 711110 -44334
2018 700,079.00 700079 687774.25 -7321.13 675469.50 24609.5
2018 790,646.00 790646 735549.56 20227.09 680453.13 110192.875
2018 654,346.00 654346 705061.33 -5130.57 755776.66 -101430.6563
2018 734,778.00 734778 717354.38 3581.24 699930.76 34847.24219
2018 687,656.00 687656 704295.81 -4738.66 720935.62 -33279.61914
2018 635,678.00 635678 667617.57 -20708.45 699557.15 -63879.14502
2018 654,788.00 654788 650848.56 -18738.73 646909.12 7878.878296
2018 690,807.00 690807 661458.41 -4064.44 632109.83 58697.17038
2018 656,556.00 656556 656974.99 -4273.93 657393.98 -837.9761734
2018 676,655.00 676655 652701.06 23953.94459
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 708,720.00 708720 708720 0 708720 0
2018 666,776.00 666776 687748.00 -10486.00 708720 -41944
2018 700,079.00 700079 688670.50 -4781.75 677262 22817
2018 790,646.00 790646 737267.38 21907.56 683888.75 106757.25
2018 654,346.00 654346 706760.47 -4299.67 759174.94 -104828.9375
2018 734,778.00 734778 718619.40 3779.63 702460.80 32317.20313
2018 687,656.00 687656 705027.51 -4906.13 722399.03 -34743.02734
2018 635,678.00 635678 667899.69 -21016.97 700121.39 -64443.38574
2018 654,788.00 654788 650835.36 -19040.65 646882.72 7905.281494
2018 690,807.00 690807 661300.85 -4287.58 631794.71 59012.29474
2018 656,556.00 656556 656784.64 -4401.90 657013.27 -457.2723236
2018 676,655.00 676655 664518.87 1666.17 652382.74 24272.26223
2018 738,900.00 738900 666185.04 72714.96394
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 666,776.00 666776 666776 0 666776 0
2018 700,079.00 700079 683427.50 8325.75 666776 33303
2018 790,646.00 790646 741199.63 33048.94 691753.25 98892.75
2018 654,346.00 654346 714297.28 3073.30 774248.56 -119902.5625
2018 734,778.00 734778 726074.29 7425.15 717370.58 17407.42188
2018 687,656.00 687656 710577.72 -4035.71 733499.44 -45843.44141
2018 635,678.00 635678 671110.01 -21751.71 706542.01 -70864.0127
2018 654,788.00 654788 652073.15 -20394.28 649358.30 5429.704834
2018 690,807.00 690807 661242.93 -5612.25 631678.86 59128.13739
2018 656,556.00 656556 656093.34 -5380.92 655630.68 925.3193207
2018 676,655.00 676655 663683.71 1104.72 650712.42 25942.58046
2018 738,900.00 738900 701844.22 19632.62 664788.43 74111.56591
2019 721476.83
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.6
Dengan Data Acuan 12 Bulan

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jan 2016 706,480.00
15604 0.022586 feb 2016 690,876.00
15111 0.021286 mar 2016 709,888.00
15209.25 0.022139 apr 2016 687,000.00
8020.94 0.01148 mei 2016 698,700.00
27230.80 0.037821 jun 2016 720,000.00
57628.03 0.074949 jul 2016 768,900.00
21519.64 0.027557 ags 2016 780,900.00
194714.47 0.32447 sep 2016 600,100.00
32952.90 0.051449 okt 2016 640,500.00
54242.10 0.079888 nov 2016 678,976.00
56827.08 0.082358 des 2016 690,000.00
77908.80 0.105995 jan 2017 735,020.00
499060.21 0.755982 total
45369.10977 mad
6.873% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 feb 2016 690,876.00
19012 0.026782 mar 2016 709,888.00
18135 0.026397 apr 2016 687,000.00
2413.25 0.003454 mei 2016 698,700.00
21684.06 0.030117 jun 2016 720,000.00
53498.45 0.069578 jul 2016 768,900.00
19131.04 0.024499 ags 2016 780,900.00
195635.43 0.326005 sep 2016 600,100.00
32909.81 0.051381 okt 2016 640,500.00
54756.46 0.080646 nov 2016 678,976.00
57448.47 0.083259 des 2016 690,000.00
78428.36 0.106702 jan 2017 735,020.00
32631.22 0.043897 feb 2017 743,360.00
553052.34 0.828819 total
50277.48511 mad
7.535% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mar 2016 709,888.00
22888 0.033316 apr 2016 687,000.00
5978 0.008556 mei 2016 698,700.00
28516.50 0.039606 jun 2016 720,000.00
60256.63 0.078367 jul 2016 768,900.00
24162.53 0.030942 ags 2016 780,900.00
192725.15 0.321155 sep 2016 600,100.00
31787.70 0.04963 okt 2016 640,500.00
54703.95 0.080568 nov 2016 678,976.00
56821.79 0.08235 des 2016 690,000.00
77671.26 0.105672 jan 2017 735,020.00
31998.18 0.043045 feb 2017 743,360.00
61977.90 0.090011 mar 2017 688,560.00
587509.68 0.873208 total
53409.97056 mad
7.938% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 apr 2016 687,000.00
11700 0.016745 mei 2016 698,700.00
24225 0.033646 jun 2016 720,000.00
52031.25 0.06767 jul 2016 768,900.00
16026.56 0.020523 ags 2016 780,900.00
198782.42 0.331249 sep 2016 600,100.00
35291.31 0.0551 okt 2016 640,500.00
53353.08 0.078579 nov 2016 678,976.00
56885.00 0.082442 des 2016 690,000.00
78425.71 0.106699 jan 2017 735,020.00
32909.64 0.044271 feb 2017 743,360.00
61215.81 0.088904 mar 2017 688,560.00
21354.58 0.030274 apr 2017 705,380.00
620845.77 0.925828 total
56440.52474 mad
8.417% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mei 2016 698,700.00
21300 0.029583 jun 2016 720,000.00
54225 0.070523 jul 2016 768,900.00
20231.25 0.025908 ags 2016 780,900.00
194623.44 0.324318 sep 2016 600,100.00
32194.92 0.050265 okt 2016 640,500.00
55144.07 0.081217 nov 2016 678,976.00
57575.54 0.083443 des 2016 690,000.00
78393.40 0.106655 jan 2017 735,020.00
32523.97 0.043753 feb 2017 743,360.00
61681.73 0.089581 mar 2017 688,560.00
21744.15 0.030826 apr 2017 705,380.00
15460.68 0.021064 mei 2017 734,000.00
629637.47 0.936071 total
57239.77018 mad
8.510% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jun 2016 720,000.00
48900 0.063597 jul 2016 768,900.00
24225 0.031022 ags 2016 780,900.00
186968.75 0.311563 sep 2016 600,100.00
24623.44 0.038444 okt 2016 640,500.00
60781.08 0.089519 nov 2016 678,976.00
60836.07 0.088168 des 2016 690,000.00
79650.54 0.108365 jan 2017 735,020.00
32465.15 0.043674 feb 2017 743,360.00
62383.84 0.0906 mar 2017 688,560.00
22592.37 0.032029 apr 2017 705,380.00
14751.45 0.020097 mei 2017 734,000.00
42324.50 0.06129 jun 2017 690,560.00
618177.69 0.917078 total
56197.97161 mad
8.337% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jul 2016 768,900.00
12000 0.015367 ags 2016 780,900.00
177800 0.296284 sep 2016 600,100.00
7050.00 0.011007 okt 2016 640,500.00
78163.50 0.11512 nov 2016 678,976.00
73777.38 0.106924 des 2016 690,000.00
87135.97 0.118549 jan 2017 735,020.00
35351.27 0.047556 feb 2017 743,360.00
62518.89 0.090797 mar 2017 688,560.00
24204.25 0.034314 apr 2017 705,380.00
12804.13 0.017444 mei 2017 734,000.00
43952.71 0.063648 jun 2017 690,560.00
7562.95 0.01079 jul 2017 700,900.00
614758.10 0.917009 total
55887.1003 mad
8.336% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 ags 2016 780,900.00
180800 0.301283 sep 2016 600,100.00
4800 0.007494 okt 2016 640,500.00
82476.00 0.121471 nov 2016 678,976.00
78043.00 0.113106 des 2016 690,000.00
90311.75 0.12287 jan 2017 735,020.00
37188.19 0.050027 feb 2017 743,360.00
61810.64 0.089768 mar 2017 688,560.00
24237.39 0.034361 apr 2017 705,380.00
12408.58 0.016905 mei 2017 734,000.00
44430.58 0.06434 jun 2017 690,560.00
7962.52 0.01136 jul 2017 700,900.00
46502.15 0.062379 ags 2017 745,480.00
624468.65 0.932986 total
56769.87694 mad
8.482% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 sep 2016 600,100.00
40400 0.063076 okt 2016 640,500.00
48576 0.071543 nov 2016 678,976.00
13068.00 0.018939 des 2016 690,000.00
26043.00 0.035432 jan 2017 735,020.00
10660.25 0.014341 feb 2017 743,360.00
89486.81 0.129962 mar 2017 688,560.00
34908.39 0.049489 apr 2017 705,380.00
12907.92 0.017586 mei 2017 734,000.00
38470.91 0.05571 jun 2017 690,560.00
762.59 0.001088 jul 2017 700,900.00
52522.21 0.070454 ags 2017 745,480.00
6025.94 0.008393 sep 2017 718,000.00
367806.08 0.527619 total
33436.9167 mad
4.797% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 okt 2016 640,500.00
38476 0.056668 nov 2016 678,976.00
20643 0.029917 des 2016 690,000.00
40561.75 0.055185 jan 2017 735,020.00
3700.69 0.004978 feb 2017 743,360.00
78795.02 0.114434 mar 2017 688,560.00
28724.11 0.040721 apr 2017 705,380.00
15292.37 0.020834 mei 2017 734,000.00
38582.49 0.055871 jun 2017 690,560.00
2094.29 0.002988 jul 2017 700,900.00
50913.38 0.068296 ags 2017 745,480.00
7371.13 0.010266 sep 2017 718,000.00
23369.40 0.031219 okt 2017 748,560.00
325154.22 0.46016 total
29559.47438 mad
4.183% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 nov 2016 678,976.00
11024 0.015977 des 2016 690,000.00
47776 0.065 jan 2017 735,020.00
17528.00 0.023579 feb 2017 743,360.00
65118.00 0.094571 mar 2017 688,560.00
18541.50 0.026286 apr 2017 705,380.00
21182.13 0.028858 mei 2017 734,000.00
36311.59 0.052583 jun 2017 690,560.00
2200.55 0.00314 jul 2017 700,900.00
49645.10 0.066595 ags 2017 745,480.00
8903.34 0.0124 sep 2017 718,000.00
22088.27 0.029508 okt 2017 748,560.00
28777.99 0.040065 nov 2017 718,280.00
300318.49 0.418497 total
27301.68085 mad
3.805% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 des 2016 690,000.00
45020 0.06125 jan 2017 735,020.00
19595 0.02636 feb 2017 743,360.00
61156.25 0.088818 mar 2017 688,560.00
14622.81 0.02073 apr 2017 705,380.00
24099.61 0.032833 mei 2017 734,000.00
34624.08 0.050139 jun 2017 690,560.00
1549.91 0.002211 jul 2017 700,900.00
49614.66 0.066554 ags 2017 745,480.00
9266.73 0.012906 sep 2017 718,000.00
21649.27 0.028921 okt 2017 748,560.00
29145.06 0.040576 nov 2017 718,280.00
26535.95 0.037442 des 2017 708,720.00
310343.36 0.431299 total
28213.03313 mad
3.921% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jan 2017 735,020.00
8340 0.011219 feb 2017 743,360.00
52715 0.076558 mar 2017 688,560.00
1556.25 0.002206 apr 2017 705,380.00
40102.81 0.054636 mei 2017 734,000.00
22709.61 0.032886 jun 2017 690,560.00
5341.58 0.007621 jul 2017 700,900.00
52271.78 0.070118 ags 2017 745,480.00
9391.06 0.013079 sep 2017 718,000.00
20165.28 0.026939 okt 2017 748,560.00
30937.87 0.043072 nov 2017 718,280.00
28034.98 0.039557 des 2017 708,720.00
51958.79 0.077925 jan 2018 666,776.00
271566.22 0.377893 total
24687.83849 mad
3.435% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 feb 2017 743,360.00
54800 0.079586 mar 2017 688,560.00
3120 0.004423 apr 2017 705,380.00
43100.00 0.058719 mei 2017 734,000.00
19745.00 0.028593 jun 2017 690,560.00
7548.75 0.01077 jul 2017 700,900.00
53548.44 0.071831 ags 2017 745,480.00
8898.83 0.012394 sep 2017 718,000.00
20142.25 0.026908 okt 2017 748,560.00
31212.78 0.043455 nov 2017 718,280.00
28367.10 0.040026 des 2017 708,720.00
52236.48 0.078342 jan 2018 666,776.00
24134.95 0.034475 feb 2018 700,079.00
322719.62 0.455047 total
29338.14698 mad
4.137% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mar 2017 688,560.00
16820 0.023845 apr 2017 705,380.00
32825 0.044721 mei 2017 734,000.00
39438.75 0.057111 jun 2017 690,560.00
11930.94 0.017022 jul 2017 700,900.00
39045.70 0.052377 ags 2017 745,480.00
17287.40 0.024077 sep 2017 718,000.00
16907.90 0.022587 okt 2017 748,560.00
31061.43 0.043244 nov 2017 718,280.00
26560.73 0.037477 des 2017 708,720.00
50054.20 0.075069 jan 2018 666,776.00
25959.61 0.037081 feb 2018 700,079.00
114740.62 0.145123 mar 2018 790,646.00
307891.67 0.434612 total
27990.15172 mad
3.951% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 apr 2017 705,380.00
28620 0.038992 mei 2017 734,000.00
36285 0.052544 jun 2017 690,560.00
5886.25 0.008398 jul 2017 700,900.00
45024.69 0.060397 ags 2017 745,480.00
12836.02 0.017877 sep 2017 718,000.00
19482.64 0.026027 okt 2017 748,560.00
30068.70 0.041862 nov 2017 718,280.00
26607.19 0.037543 des 2017 708,720.00
50608.64 0.075901 jan 2018 666,776.00
25289.80 0.036124 feb 2018 700,079.00
114180.57 0.144414 mar 2018 790,646.00
96786.19 0.147913 apr 2018 654,346.00
394889.48 0.540079 total
35899.04319 mad
4.910% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mei 2017 734,000.00
43440 0.062905 jun 2017 690,560.00
520 0.000742 jul 2017 700,900.00
55310.00 0.074194 ags 2017 745,480.00
2662.50 0.003708 sep 2017 718,000.00
27056.88 0.036145 okt 2017 748,560.00
25687.66 0.035763 nov 2017 718,280.00
24918.01 0.035159 des 2017 708,720.00
50687.68 0.076019 jan 2018 666,776.00
24346.40 0.034777 feb 2018 700,079.00
113040.84 0.142973 mar 2018 790,646.00
97739.15 0.149369 apr 2018 654,346.00
38037.64 0.051768 may 2018 734,778.00
465409.11 0.651754 total
42309.91934 mad
5.925% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jun 2017 690,560.00
10340 0.014752 jul 2017 700,900.00
47165 0.063268 ags 2017 745,480.00
18273.75 0.025451 sep 2017 718,000.00
11615.31 0.015517 okt 2017 748,560.00
37183.98 0.051768 nov 2017 718,280.00
31567.64 0.044542 des 2017 708,720.00
53251.55 0.079864 jan 2018 666,776.00
24466.38 0.034948 feb 2018 700,079.00
114472.75 0.144784 mar 2018 790,646.00
96009.25 0.146726 apr 2018 654,346.00
39484.06 0.053736 may 2018 734,778.00
30194.30 0.043909 jun 2018 687,656.00
483829.67 0.675356 total
43984.51578 mad
6.140% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jul 2017 700,900.00
44580 0.0598 ags 2017 745,480.00
16335 0.022751 sep 2017 718,000.00
15331.25 0.020481 okt 2017 748,560.00
33508.44 0.046651 nov 2017 718,280.00
28831.17 0.040681 des 2017 708,720.00
51668.75 0.07749 jan 2018 666,776.00
25076.65 0.03582 feb 2018 700,079.00
114444.19 0.144748 mar 2018 790,646.00
96350.09 0.147246 apr 2018 654,346.00
39072.29 0.053176 may 2018 734,778.00
30538.59 0.04441 jun 2018 687,656.00
62565.38 0.098423 jul 2018 635,678.00
495736.42 0.693253 total
45066.94727 mad
6.302% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 ags 2017 745,480.00
27480 0.038273 sep 2017 718,000.00
23690 0.031647 okt 2017 748,560.00
17487.50 0.024346 nov 2017 718,280.00
12984.38 0.018321 des 2017 708,720.00
39870.72 0.059796 jan 2018 666,776.00
31900.79 0.045567 feb 2018 700,079.00
117075.35 0.148076 mar 2018 790,646.00
96473.21 0.147435 apr 2018 654,346.00
37602.81 0.051176 may 2018 734,778.00
32313.88 0.046991 jun 2018 687,656.00
64049.75 0.100758 jul 2018 635,678.00
7182.75 0.01097 aug 2018 654,788.00
500928.39 0.712387 total
45538.94424 mad
6.476% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 sep 2017 718,000.00
30560 0.040825 okt 2017 748,560.00
22640 0.03152 nov 2017 718,280.00
22860.00 0.032255 des 2017 708,720.00
49639.00 0.074446 jan 2018 666,776.00
24628.25 0.035179 feb 2018 700,079.00
112868.81 0.142755 mar 2018 790,646.00
98095.11 0.149913 apr 2018 654,346.00
37678.71 0.051279 may 2018 734,778.00
31408.06 0.045674 jun 2018 687,656.00
62955.43 0.099037 jul 2018 635,678.00
8097.74 0.012367 aug 2018 654,788.00
58508.89 0.084696 sep 2018 690,807.00
501431.11 0.715251 total
45584.64669 mad
6.502% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 sep 2017 718,000.00
30560 0.040825 okt 2017 748,560.00
22640 0.03152 nov 2017 718,280.00
22860.00 0.032255 des 2017 708,720.00
49639.00 0.074446 jan 2018 666,776.00
24628.25 0.035179 feb 2018 700,079.00
112868.81 0.142755 mar 2018 790,646.00
98095.11 0.149913 apr 2018 654,346.00
37678.71 0.051279 may 2018 734,778.00
31408.06 0.045674 jun 2018 687,656.00
62955.43 0.099037 jul 2018 635,678.00
8097.74 0.012367 aug 2018 654,788.00
58508.89 0.084696 sep 2018 690,807.00
501431.11 0.715251 total
45584.64669 mad
6.502% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 okt 2017 748,560.00
30280 0.042156 nov 2017 718,280.00
17130 0.02417 des 2017 708,720.00
38656.50 0.057975 jan 2018 666,776.00
35491.38 0.050696 feb 2018 700,079.00
120956.47 0.152984 mar 2018 790,646.00
93417.10 0.142764 apr 2018 654,346.00
39482.39 0.053734 may 2018 734,778.00
31492.46 0.045797 jun 2018 687,656.00
63962.77 0.100621 jul 2018 635,678.00
6880.76 0.010508 aug 2018 654,788.00
57491.34 0.083223 sep 2018 690,807.00
1846.20 0.002812 oct 2018 656,556.00
535241.18 0.76463 total
48658.28894 mad
6.951% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 nov 2017 718,280.00
9560 0.013489 des 2017 708,720.00
44334 0.06649 jan 2018 666,776.00
24609.50 0.035152 feb 2018 700,079.00
110192.88 0.139371 mar 2018 790,646.00
101430.66 0.155011 apr 2018 654,346.00
34847.24 0.047426 may 2018 734,778.00
33279.62 0.048396 jun 2018 687,656.00
63879.15 0.10049 jul 2018 635,678.00
7878.88 0.012033 aug 2018 654,788.00
58697.17 0.084969 sep 2018 690,807.00
837.98 0.001276 oct 2018 656,556.00
23953.94 0.035401 nov 2018 676,655.00
489547.06 0.704102 total
44504.2784 mad
6.401% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 des 2017 708,720.00
41944 0.062906 jan 2018 666,776.00
22817 0.032592 feb 2018 700,079.00
106757.25 0.135025 mar 2018 790,646.00
104828.94 0.160204 apr 2018 654,346.00
32317.20 0.043982 may 2018 734,778.00
34743.03 0.050524 jun 2018 687,656.00
64443.39 0.101377 jul 2018 635,678.00
7905.28 0.012073 aug 2018 654,788.00
59012.29 0.085425 sep 2018 690,807.00
457.27 0.000696 oct 2018 656,556.00
24272.26 0.035871 nov 2018 676,655.00
72714.96 0.09841 dec 2018 738,900.00
499497.91 0.720676 total
45408.90132 mad
6.552% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jan 2018 666,776.00
33303 0.04757 feb 2018 700,079.00
98892.75 0.125078 mar 2018 790,646.00
119902.56 0.18324 apr 2018 654,346.00
17407.42 0.023691 may 2018 734,778.00
45843.44 0.066666 jun 2018 687,656.00
70864.01 0.111478 jul 2018 635,678.00
5429.70 0.008292 aug 2018 654,788.00
59128.14 0.085593 sep 2018 690,807.00
925.32 0.001409 oct 2018 656,556.00
25942.58 0.038339 nov 2018 676,655.00
74111.57 0.1003 dec 2018 738,900.00
jan 2019
551750.50 0.791658 total
50159.13604 mad
7.197% mape
level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
706,480.00 706480 0 706480 0 0
690,876.00 697117.60 -5617.44 706480 -15604 15604 0.022586
709,888.00 702532.86 1002.18 691500.16 18387.84 18387.84 0.025902
687,000.00 693614.02 -4950.43 703535.05 -16535.0464 16535.05 0.024068
698,700.00 694685.43 -1337.32 688663.58 10036.4157 10036.42 0.014364
720,000.00 709339.24 8257.36 693348.11 26651.8909 26651.89 0.037017
768,900.00 748378.64 26726.58 717596.60 51303.4003 51303.40 0.066723
780,900.00 778582.09 28812.70 775105.22 5794.77991 5794.78 0.007421
600,100.00 683017.92 -45813.42 807394.79 -207294.789 207294.79 0.345434
640,500.00 639181.80 -44627.04 637204.49 3295.50747 3295.51 0.005145
678,976.00 645207.50 -14235.39 594554.76 84421.2434 84421.24 0.124336
690,000.00 666388.84 7014.65 630972.11 59027.8901 59027.89 0.085548
735,020.00 673403.49 61616.5084 61616.51 0.08383
total 498352.80 0.758544
mad 45304.8003
mape 6.896%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690876 690876 0 690876 0 0
709888 702283.20 6844.32 690876 19012 19012 0.026782
687000 695851.01 -1121.59 709127.52 -22127.52 22127.52 0.032209
698700 697111.77 307.82 694729.42 3970.5792 3970.58 0.005683
720000 710967.84 8436.77 697419.59 22580.4104 22580.41 0.031362
768900 749101.84 26255.11 719404.60 49495.3951 49495.40 0.064372
780900 778682.78 28250.61 775356.95 5543.04676 5543.05 0.007098
600100 682833.36 -46209.41 806933.39 -206833.389 206833.39 0.344665
640500 638949.58 -44814.03 636623.94 3876.05631 3876.06 0.006052
678976 645039.82 -14271.47 594135.55 84840.4543 84840.45 0.124954
690000 666307.34 7051.93 630768.35 59231.65 59231.65 0.085843
735020 710355.71 29249.79 673359.27 61660.7342 61660.73 0.08389
743360 739605.50 3754.50362 3754.50 0.005051
total 539171.24 0.812908
mad 49015.5669
mape 7.390%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


709888 709888 0 709888 0 0
687000 696155.20 -8239.68 709888 -22888 22888 0.033316
698700 694386.21 -4357.27 687915.52 10784.48 10784.48 0.015435
720000 708011.58 6432.31 690028.94 29971.0592 29971.06 0.041626
768900 747117.56 26036.51 714443.89 54456.1096 54456.11 0.070823
780900 777801.63 28825.05 773154.07 7745.93027 7745.93 0.009919
600100 682710.67 -45524.56 806626.68 -206526.676 206526.68 0.344154
640500 639174.45 -44331.56 637186.12 3313.88449 3313.88 0.005174
678976 645322.76 -14043.64 594842.89 84133.1104 84133.11 0.123912
690000 666511.65 7095.88 631279.12 58720.881 58720.88 0.085103
735020 710455.01 29204.37 673607.53 61412.4721 61412.47 0.083552
743360 741879.75 30536.59 739659.38 3700.61858 3700.62 0.004978
688560 772416.35 -83856.35 83856.35 0.121785
total 543653.22 0.817993
mad 49423.0202
mape 7.436%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


687000 687000 0 687000 0 0
698700 694020.00 4212.00 687000 11700 11700 0.016745
720000 711292.80 12048.48 698232 21768 21768 0.030233
768900 750676.51 28449.62 723341.28 45558.72 45558.72 0.059252
780900 780190.45 29088.21 779126.13 1773.8688 1773.87 0.002272
600100 683771.47 -46216.11 809278.66 -209178.664 209178.66 0.348573
640500 639322.14 -45156.04 637555.36 2944.64145 2944.64 0.004597
678976 645052.04 -14624.47 594166.11 84809.8929 84809.89 0.124909
690000 666171.03 6821.60 630427.57 59572.432 59572.43 0.086337
735020 710209.05 29151.45 672992.63 62027.3721 62027.37 0.084389
743360 741760.20 30591.27 739360.51 3999.49423 3999.49 0.00538
688560 722076.59 426.34 772351.47 -83791.4749 83791.47 0.121691
705380 722502.93 -17122.9316 17122.93 0.024275
total 587124.56 0.884378
mad 53374.9601
mape 8.040%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


698700 698700 0 698700 0 0
720000 711480.00 7668.00 698700 21300 21300 0.029583
768900 748999.20 25578.72 719148 49752 49752 0.064705
780900 778371.17 27854.67 774577.92 6322.08 6322.08 0.008096
600100 682550.33 -46350.63 806225.84 -206125.837 206125.84 0.343486
640500 638779.88 -44802.53 636199.70 4300.29773 4300.30 0.006714
678976 644976.54 -14203.01 593977.36 84998.6444 84998.64 0.125187
690000 666309.41 7118.52 630773.53 59226.471 59226.47 0.085835
735020 710383.17 29291.66 673427.93 61592.0721 61592.07 0.083796
743360 741885.93 30618.32 739674.83 3685.16661 3685.17 0.004957
688560 722137.70 398.39 772504.26 -83944.2556 83944.26 0.121913
705380 712242.44 -5777.80 722536.09 -17156.0924 17156.09 0.024322
734000 706464.63 27535.3661 27535.37 0.037514
total 598402.92 0.898595
mad 54400.2652
mape 8.169%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


720000 720000 0 720000 0 0
768900 749340.00 17604.00 720000 48900 48900 0.063597
780900 775317.60 22628.16 766944 13956 13956 0.017872
600100 679238.30 -48596.31 797945.76 -197845.76 197845.76 0.329688
640500 636556.80 -45047.43 630641.99 9858.0096 9858.01 0.015391
678976 643989.35 -13559.44 591509.37 87466.634 87466.63 0.128821
690000 666171.96 7885.79 630429.90 59570.0955 59570.10 0.086333
735020 710635.10 29832.20 674057.75 60962.2457 60962.25 0.08294
743360 742202.92 30873.57 740467.30 2892.69736 2892.70 0.003891
688560 722366.60 447.63 773076.49 -84516.493 84516.49 0.122744
705380 712353.69 -5828.69 722814.23 -17434.2317 17434.23 0.024716
734000 723010.00 4062.31 706525.00 27474.9962 27475.00 0.037432
690560 727072.31 -36512.3112 36512.31 0.052873
total 610877.16 0.913426
mad 55534.2876
mape 8.304%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


768900 768900 0 768900 0 0
780900 776100.00 4320.00 768900 12000 12000 0.015367
600100 672228.00 -60595.20 780420 -180320 180320 0.300483
640500 628953.12 -50203.01 611632.80 28867.2 28867.20 0.04507
678976 638885.64 -14121.69 578750.11 100225.888 100225.89 0.147613
690000 663905.58 9363.29 624763.96 65236.0435 65236.04 0.094545
735020 710319.55 31593.69 673268.87 61751.1301 61751.13 0.084013
743360 742781.30 32114.53 741913.24 1446.75786 1446.76 0.001946
688560 723094.33 1033.63 774895.82 -86335.8239 86335.82 0.125386
705380 712879.18 -5715.64 724127.96 -18747.96 18747.96 0.026579
734000 723265.42 3945.49 707163.55 26836.4512 26836.45 0.036562
690560 705220.36 -9248.84 727210.91 -36650.9068 36650.91 0.053074
700900 695971.52 4928.47647 4928.48 0.007032
total 618418.16 0.930638
mad 56219.8328
mape 8.460%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


780900 780900 0 780900 0 0
600100 672420.00 -65088.00 780900 -180800 180800 0.301283
640500 627232.80 -53147.52 607332 33168 33168 0.051785
678976 637019.71 -15386.86 574085.28 104890.72 104890.72 0.154484
690000 662653.14 9225.31 621632.85 68367.1488 68367.15 0.099083
735020 709763.38 31956.27 671878.45 63141.5468 63141.55 0.085905
743360 742703.86 32546.80 741719.65 1640.3491 1640.35 0.002207
688560 723236.26 1338.16 775250.66 -86690.6556 86690.66 0.125901
705380 713057.77 -5571.83 724574.42 -19194.4215 19194.42 0.027211
734000 723394.37 3973.23 707485.94 26514.0639 26514.06 0.036123
690560 705283.04 -9277.51 727367.60 -36807.605 36807.60 0.053301
700900 698942.21 -7515.50 696005.53 4894.46529 4894.47 0.006983
745480 691426.71 54053.2859 54053.29 0.072508
total 626108.98 0.944265
mad 56918.9978
mape 8.584%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


600100 600100 0 600100 0 0
640500 624340.00 14544.00 600100 40400 40400 0.063076
678976 662939.20 28977.12 638884 40092 40092 0.059048
690000 690766.53 28287.24 691916.32 -1916.32 1916.32 0.002777
735020 728633.51 34035.09 719053.77 15966.2272 15966.23 0.021722
743360 751083.44 27083.99 762668.60 -19308.5957 19308.60 0.025975
688560 724402.97 -5174.68 778167.43 -89607.4304 89607.43 0.130137
705380 710919.32 -10160.07 719228.29 -13848.2894 13848.29 0.019632
734000 720703.70 1806.60 700759.25 33240.7512 33240.75 0.045287
690560 703340.12 -9695.51 722510.30 -31950.303 31950.30 0.046267
700900 697997.85 -7083.57 693644.62 7255.38442 7255.38 0.010352
745480 723653.71 12560.09 690914.28 54565.721 54565.72 0.073195
718000 736213.80 -18213.8039 18213.80 0.025367
total 348151.02 0.497469
mad 31650.0929
mape 4.522%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


640500 640500 0 640500 0 0
678976 663585.60 13851.36 640500 38476 38476 0.056668
690000 684974.78 18374.05 677436.96 12563.04 12563.04 0.018207
735020 722351.54 29775.67 703348.84 31671.1616 31671.16 0.043089
743360 746866.88 26619.48 752127.21 -8767.20794 8767.21 0.011794
688560 722530.54 -3954.01 773486.36 -84926.3609 84926.36 0.123339
705380 710658.61 -8704.76 718576.53 -13196.5322 13196.53 0.018708
734000 721181.54 2831.85 701953.85 32046.1509 32046.15 0.04366
690560 703941.36 -9211.37 724013.39 -33453.3902 33453.39 0.048444
700900 698431.99 -6990.16 694729.99 6170.01384 6170.01 0.008803
745480 723864.73 12463.58 691441.83 54038.1705 54038.17 0.072488
718000 725331.32 5865.39 736328.31 -18328.3082 18328.31 0.025527
748560 731196.71 17363.2912 17363.29 0.023196
total 333636.34 0.470726
mad 30330.576
mape 4.279%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


678976 678976 0 678976 0 0
690000 685590.40 3968.64 678976 11024 11024 0.015977
735020 716835.62 20334.59 689559.04 45460.96 45460.96 0.06185
743360 740884.08 22562.91 737170.20 6189.7984 6189.80 0.008327
688560 718514.80 -4396.40 763446.99 -74886.9937 74886.99 0.108759
705380 708875.36 -7542.23 714118.39 -8738.39277 8738.39 0.012388
734000 720933.25 4217.85 701333.13 32666.869 32666.87 0.044505
690560 704396.44 -8234.95 725151.10 -34591.0991 34591.10 0.050091
700900 699004.60 -6529.09 696161.49 4738.50929 4738.51 0.006761
745480 724278.20 12552.53 692475.51 53004.4893 53004.49 0.071101
718000 725532.29 5773.47 736830.73 -18830.7348 18830.73 0.026227
748560 741658.30 11984.99 731305.76 17254.2401 17254.24 0.02305
718280 753643.30 -35363.2964 35363.30 0.049233
total 307386.09 0.429036
mad 27944.1897
mape 3.900%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690000 690000 0 690000 0 0
735020 717012.00 16207.20 690000 45020 45020 0.06125
743360 739303.68 19857.89 733219.2 10140.8 10140.8 0.013642
688560 716800.63 -5558.68 759161.57 -70601.568 70601.57 0.102535
705380 707724.78 -7668.98 711241.95 -5861.95072 5861.95 0.00831
734000 720422.32 4550.93 700055.80 33944.1985 33944.20 0.046246
690560 704325.30 -7837.84 724973.25 -34413.2533 34413.25 0.049834
700900 699134.99 -6249.33 696487.46 4412.53716 4412.54 0.006296
745480 724442.26 12684.64 692885.66 52594.34 52594.34 0.070551
718000 725650.76 5798.95 737126.90 -19126.9013 19126.90 0.026639
748560 741715.89 11958.66 731449.71 17110.2867 17110.29 0.022858
718280 732437.82 -783.38 753674.54 -35394.5413 35394.54 0.049277
708720 731654.44 -22934.4377 22934.44 0.03236
total 328620.38 0.457437
mad 29874.5797
mape 4.159%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


735020 735020 0 735020 0 0
743360 740024.00 3002.40 735020 8340 8340 0.011219
688560 710346.56 -16605.50 743026.4 -54466.4 54466.4 0.079102
705380 700724.42 -12415.48 693741.06 11638.944 11638.94 0.0165
734000 715723.58 4033.30 688308.94 45691.0618 45691.06 0.062249
690560 702238.75 -6477.58 719756.87 -29196.8734 29196.87 0.04228
700900 698844.47 -4627.60 695761.17 5138.82699 5138.83 0.007332
745480 724974.75 13827.13 694216.87 51263.1294 51263.13 0.068765
718000 726320.75 6338.45 738801.88 -20801.8762 20801.88 0.028972
748560 742199.68 12062.74 732659.20 15900.797 15900.80 0.021242
718280 732672.97 -890.93 754262.42 -35982.4207 35982.42 0.050095
708720 717944.81 -9193.27 731782.04 -23062.0363 23062.04 0.03254
666776 708751.55 -41975.5495 41975.55 0.062953
total 301482.37 0.420297
mad 27407.4878
mape 3.821%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


743360 743360 0 743360 0 0
688560 710480.00 -19728.00 743360 -54800 54800 0.079586
705380 699528.80 -14461.92 690752 14628 14628 0.020738
734000 714426.75 3154.00 685066.88 48933.12 48933.12 0.066666
690560 701368.30 -6573.47 717580.76 -27020.7552 27020.76 0.039129
700900 698457.93 -4375.61 694794.83 6105.16659 6105.17 0.00871
745480 724920.93 14127.55 694082.32 51397.6753 51397.68 0.068946
718000 726419.39 6550.10 739048.48 -21048.4843 21048.48 0.029315
748560 742323.80 12162.68 732969.49 15590.5062 15590.51 0.020827
718280 732762.59 -871.65 754486.48 -36206.4798 36206.48 0.050407
708720 717988.38 -9213.19 731890.94 -23170.9415 23170.94 0.032694
666776 683575.67 -24332.90 708775.19 -41999.1872 41999.19 0.062988
700079 659242.78 40836.2219 40836.22 0.058331
total 340900.32 0.480008
mad 30990.9378
mape 4.364%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


688560 688560 0 688560 0 0
705380 698652.00 6055.20 688560 16820 16820 0.023845
734000 722282.88 16600.61 704707.2 29292.8 29292.8 0.039908
690560 709889.40 -795.85 738883.49 -48323.488 48323.49 0.069977
700900 704177.42 -3745.52 709093.55 -8193.54752 8193.55 0.01169
745480 727460.76 12471.79 700431.89 45048.1058 45048.11 0.060428
718000 726773.02 4576.07 739932.55 -21932.551 21932.55 0.030547
748560 741675.64 10772.00 731349.10 17210.9047 17210.90 0.022992
718280 731947.06 -1528.35 752447.64 -34167.6388 34167.64 0.047569
708720 717399.48 -9339.88 730418.71 -21698.7062 21698.71 0.030617
666776 683289.44 -24201.98 708059.60 -41283.5989 41283.60 0.061915
700079 683682.38 -9445.02 659087.46 40991.5396 40991.54 0.058553
790646 674237.36 116408.641 116408.64 0.147232
total 324962.88 0.458042
mad 29542.08
mape 4.164%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


705380 705380 0 705380 0 0
734000 722552.00 10303.20 705380 28620 28620 0.038992
690560 707478.08 -4923.07 732855.2 -42295.2 42295.2 0.061248
700900 701562.00 -5518.87 702555.01 -1655.008 1655.01 0.002361
745480 725705.25 12278.40 696043.13 49436.8717 49436.87 0.066315
718000 725993.46 5084.28 737983.65 -19983.6503 19983.65 0.027832
748560 741567.10 11377.90 731077.74 17482.2551 17482.26 0.023355
718280 732146.00 -1101.50 752944.99 -34664.9946 34664.99 0.048261
708720 717649.80 -9138.32 731044.50 -22324.4964 22324.50 0.0315
666776 683470.19 -24163.09 708511.48 -41735.4784 41735.48 0.062593
700079 683770.24 -9485.21 659307.10 40771.901 40771.90 0.058239
790646 744101.61 32404.74 674285.03 116360.968 116360.97 0.147172
654346 776506.35 -122160.353 122160.35 0.186691
total 415330.82 0.567868
mad 37757.3476
mape 5.162%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


734000 734000 0 734000 0 0
690560 707936.00 -15638.40 734000 -43440 43440 0.062905
700900 697459.04 -12541.54 692297.6 8602.4 8602.4 0.012273
745480 721255.00 9260.96 684917.50 60562.496 60562.50 0.08124
718000 723006.39 4755.22 730515.96 -12515.9642 12515.96 0.017432
748560 740240.64 12242.64 727761.60 20798.3989 20798.40 0.027785
718280 731961.31 -70.54 752483.28 -34203.2795 34203.28 0.047618
708720 717988.31 -8412.02 731890.77 -23170.7702 23170.77 0.032694
666776 683896.12 -23820.12 709576.29 -42800.2892 42800.29 0.06419
700079 684077.80 -9419.04 660075.99 40003.0073 40003.01 0.057141
790646 744251.10 32336.37 674658.76 115987.243 115987.24 0.146699
654346 703242.59 -11670.56 776587.47 -122241.47 122241.47 0.186815
734778 691572.03 43205.974 43205.97 0.058801
total 524325.32 0.736791
mad 47665.938
mape 6.698%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690560 690560 0 690560 0 0
700900 696764.00 3722.40 690560 10340 10340 0.014752
745480 727482.56 19920.10 700486.4 44993.6 44993.6 0.060355
718000 729761.06 9335.14 747402.66 -29402.656 29402.66 0.040951
748560 744774.48 12742.11 739096.20 9463.79776 9463.80 0.012643
718280 733974.64 -1383.06 757516.59 -39236.5879 39236.59 0.054626
708720 718268.63 -9976.83 732591.57 -23871.5706 23871.57 0.033683
666776 683382.32 -24922.52 708291.80 -41515.7982 41515.80 0.062263
700079 683431.32 -9939.61 658459.80 41619.1981 41619.20 0.059449
790646 743784.29 32235.94 673491.71 117154.285 117154.29 0.148175
654346 703015.69 -11566.78 776020.22 -121674.223 121674.22 0.185948
734778 717446.36 4031.69 691448.91 43329.0945 43329.09 0.058969
687656 721478.05 -33822.0528 33822.05 0.049185
total 522600.81 0.731814
mad 47509.1646
mape 6.653%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


700900 700900 0 700900 0 0
745480 727648.00 16048.80 700900 44580 44580 0.0598
718000 728278.72 6797.95 743696.8 -25696.8 25696.8 0.035789
748560 743166.67 11651.95 735076.67 13483.328 13483.33 0.018012
718280 732895.45 -1501.95 754818.62 -36538.6189 36538.62 0.05087
708720 717789.40 -9664.41 731393.49 -22673.4948 22673.49 0.031992
666776 683315.59 -24550.05 708124.99 -41348.9871 41348.99 0.062013
700079 683553.62 -9677.20 658765.55 41313.4514 41313.45 0.059013
790646 743938.17 32359.85 673876.42 116769.584 116769.58 0.147689
654346 703126.81 -11542.88 776298.01 -121952.013 121952.01 0.186372
734778 717500.37 4006.99 691583.93 43194.0729 43194.07 0.058785
687656 701196.54 -8179.50 721507.36 -33851.3591 33851.36 0.049227
635678 693017.04 -57339.0426 57339.04 0.090201
total 541401.71 0.759563
mad 49218.3372
mape 6.905%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


745480 745480 0 745480 0 0
718000 728992.00 -9892.80 745480 -27480 27480 0.038273
748560 736775.68 713.09 719099.2 29460.8 29460.8 0.039357
718280 725963.51 -6202.07 737488.77 -19208.768 19208.77 0.026743
708720 713136.58 -10176.99 719761.44 -11041.4387 11041.44 0.015579
666776 681249.44 -23203.08 702959.59 -36183.5891 36183.59 0.054266
700079 683265.94 -8071.33 658046.36 42032.6429 42032.64 0.06004
790646 744465.45 33491.17 675194.62 115451.384 115451.38 0.146022
654346 703790.25 -11008.65 777956.62 -123610.618 123610.62 0.188907
734778 717979.44 4110.05 692781.60 41996.404 41996.40 0.057155
687656 701429.40 -8286.00 722089.49 -34433.4928 34433.49 0.050074
635678 658664.16 -28973.54 693143.39 -57465.3941 57465.39 0.0904
654788 629690.61 25097.3872 25097.39 0.038329
total 538364.53 0.766816
mad 48942.2301
mape 6.971%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718000 718000 0 718000 0 0
748560 736336.00 11001.60 718000 30560 30560 0.040825
718280 729903.04 540.86 747337.6 -29057.6 29057.6 0.040454
708720 717409.56 -7279.74 730443.90 -21723.904 21723.90 0.030652
666776 684117.53 -22887.12 710129.82 -43353.8202 43353.82 0.06502
700079 684539.56 -8901.62 661230.41 38848.5886 38848.59 0.055492
790646 744642.78 32501.28 675637.94 115008.06 115008.06 0.145461
654346 703465.22 -11706.02 777144.05 -122798.053 122798.05 0.187665
734778 717570.48 3780.75 691759.20 43018.801 43018.80 0.058547
687656 701134.09 -8349.54 721351.23 -33695.2259 33695.23 0.049
635678 658520.62 -28907.89 692784.56 -57106.5553 57106.56 0.089836
654788 644717.89 -19844.80 629612.73 25175.2728 25175.27 0.038448
690807 624873.09 65933.9059 65933.91 0.095445
total 560345.88 0.8014
mad 50940.5346
mape 7.285%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718000 718000 0 718000 0 0
748560 736336.00 11001.60 718000 30560 30560 0.040825
718280 729903.04 540.86 747337.6 -29057.6 29057.6 0.040454
708720 717409.56 -7279.74 730443.90 -21723.904 21723.90 0.030652
666776 684117.53 -22887.12 710129.82 -43353.8202 43353.82 0.06502
700079 684539.56 -8901.62 661230.41 38848.5886 38848.59 0.055492
790646 744642.78 32501.28 675637.94 115008.06 115008.06 0.145461
654346 703465.22 -11706.02 777144.05 -122798.053 122798.05 0.187665
734778 717570.48 3780.75 691759.20 43018.801 43018.80 0.058547
687656 701134.09 -8349.54 721351.23 -33695.2259 33695.23 0.049
635678 658520.62 -28907.89 692784.56 -57106.5553 57106.56 0.089836
654788 644717.89 -19844.80 629612.73 25175.2728 25175.27 0.038448
690807 624873.09 65933.9059 65933.91 0.095445
total 560345.88 0.8014
mad 50940.5346
mape 7.285%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


748560 748560 0 748560 0 0
718280 730392.00 -10900.80 748560 -30280 30280 0.042156
708720 713028.48 -14778.43 719491.2 -10771.2 10771.2 0.015198
666776 679365.62 -26109.09 698250.05 -31474.048 31474.05 0.047203
700079 681350.01 -9253.00 653256.53 46822.4701 46822.47 0.066882
790646 743226.40 33424.64 672097.01 118548.988 118548.99 0.149939
654346 703268.02 -10605.18 776651.04 -122305.04 122305.04 0.186912
734778 717931.93 4556.28 692662.84 42115.1627 42115.16 0.057317
687656 701588.89 -7983.32 722488.21 -34832.2146 34832.21 0.050654
635678 658849.03 -28837.24 693605.57 -57927.5683 57927.57 0.091127
654788 644877.51 -19917.80 630011.79 24776.2148 24776.21 0.037839
690807 664468.08 3787.22 624959.71 65847.2907 65847.29 0.095319
656556 668255.30 -11699.3036 11699.30 0.017819
total 585700.20 0.840546
mad 53245.4725
mape 7.641%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718280 718280 0 718280 0 0
708720 712544.00 -3441.60 718280 -9560 9560 0.013489
666776 683706.56 -18679.10 709102.4 -42326.4 42326.4 0.063479
700079 686058.38 -6060.55 665027.46 35051.544 35051.54 0.050068
790646 746386.73 33772.79 679997.83 110648.166 110648.17 0.139947
654346 704671.41 -11520.08 780159.53 -125813.525 125813.53 0.192274
734778 718127.33 3465.52 693151.33 41626.6675 41626.67 0.056652
687656 701230.74 -8751.75 721592.86 -33936.8557 33936.86 0.049352
635678 658398.40 -29200.10 692479.00 -56800.997 56801.00 0.089355
654788 644552.12 -19987.81 629198.29 25589.7055 25589.71 0.039081
690807 664309.92 3859.56 624564.31 66242.6925 66242.69 0.095892
656556 661201.39 -321.29 668169.48 -11613.482 11613.48 0.017688
676655 660880.10 15774.9017 15774.90 0.023313
total 559210.04 0.807276
mad 50837.2759
mape 7.339%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


708720 708720 0 708720 0 0
666776 683553.60 -15099.84 708720 -41944 41944 0.062906
700079 687428.90 -3714.75 668453.76 31625.24 31625.24 0.045174
790646 747873.26 34780.71 683714.15 106931.85 106931.85 0.135246
654346 705669.19 -11410.16 782653.97 -128307.972 128307.97 0.196086
734778 718570.41 3176.67 694259.03 40518.9688 40518.97 0.055145
687656 701292.43 -9096.12 721747.08 -34091.0834 34091.08 0.049576
635678 658285.33 -29442.71 692196.31 -56518.3143 56518.31 0.08891
654788 644409.85 -20102.37 628842.61 25945.3865 25945.39 0.039624
690807 664207.19 3837.46 624307.47 66499.5277 66499.53 0.096264
656556 661151.46 -298.46 668044.65 -11488.6458 11488.65 0.017498
676655 670334.20 5390.26 660853.00 15801.9973 15802.00 0.023353
738900 675724.46 63175.5355 63175.54 0.085499
total 559672.99 0.809781
mad 50879.3624
mape 7.362%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


666776 666776 0 666776 0 0
700079 686757.80 11989.08 666776 33303 33303 0.04757
790646 753886.35 45072.76 698746.88 91899.12 91899.12 0.116233
654346 712191.25 -6987.96 798959.12 -144613.115 144613.12 0.221004
734778 722948.12 3658.94 705203.29 29574.7122 29574.71 0.04025
687656 703236.42 -10363.44 726607.05 -38951.0532 38951.05 0.056643
635678 658555.99 -30953.63 692872.98 -57194.9802 57194.98 0.089975
654788 643913.74 -21166.80 627602.36 27185.6418 27185.64 0.041518
690807 663582.98 3334.82 622746.94 68060.0596 68060.06 0.098523
656556 660700.72 -395.43 666917.79 -10361.7947 10361.79 0.015782
676655 670115.12 5490.47 660305.29 16349.7096 16349.71 0.024163
738900 713582.23 28276.46 675605.58 63294.4159 63294.42 0.08566
741858.69
total 580787.60 0.837321
mad 52798.873
mape 7.612%
alpha 0.7
Dengan Data Acuan 12 Bulan

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jan 2016 706,480.00 706,480.00 706480
feb 2016 690,876.00 690,876.00 695557.20
mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00 703294.97
apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 692825.29
mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 695019.99
jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 712391.61
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 755561.20
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 783448.09
sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00 664005.59
okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00 625139.10
nov 2016 678,976.00 678,976.00 647939.20
des 2016 690,000.00 690,000.00 677704.06
jan 2017 735,020.00 735,020.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 690876
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 704184.40
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 694950.08
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 696474.25
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 712932.12
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 755562.74
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 783287.18
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 663874.80
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 625081.43
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 647931.72
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 677715.30
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 724183.88
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 709888
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 693866.40
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 693885.38
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 711160.24
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 754904.18
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 783285.31
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 664070.85
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 625240.79
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 648001.99
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 677724.41
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 724170.18
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 749258.32
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 687000
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 695190.00
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 714276.90
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 757037.29
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 784078.13
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 664073.10
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 625004.77
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 647810.14
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 677639.82
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 724159.21
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 749274.82
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 715551.24
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 698700
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 713610.00
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 755444.10
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 782987.72
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 663667.82
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 625003.62
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 647930.79
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 677737.89
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 724202.46
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 749280.42
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 715542.81
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 703973.95
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 720000
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 754230.00
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780087.30
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 661682.71
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 624265.81
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 647928.69
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 677957.54
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 724381.00
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 749359.15
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 715553.01
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 703958.59
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 721210.76
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 768900
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 777300.00
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 655024.00
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 619708.44
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 646234.84
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 677952.73
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 724885.26
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 749769.04
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 715733.75
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 703982.02
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 721175.51
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 702209.56
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780900
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 654340.00
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 618074.40
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 645116.46
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 677537.06
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 724884.08
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 749892.78
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 715834.33
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 704026.37
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 721181.26
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 702200.91
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698040.76
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 600100
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 628380.00
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 669736.00
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 694387.20
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731146.83
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 749910.57
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 713969.92
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 702510.86
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 720513.02
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 702114.29
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698171.07
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 729531.28
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 640500
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 667433.20
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688885.93
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 727381.64
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 748511.15
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 713965.94
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 702927.47
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 720851.67
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 702263.61
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698190.42
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 729502.16
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727488.82
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 678976
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 686692.80
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 722142.37
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 744925.28
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 712633.16
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 702923.68
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 721248.43
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 702586.13
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698332.63
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 729520.59
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727461.09
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 743599.31
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690000
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 721514.00
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 743424.14
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 711605.75
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 702541.82
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 721247.35
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 702699.81
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698425.04
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 729561.34
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727466.37
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 743591.36
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 729667.49
des 2017 708,720.00 708720
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 735020
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 740858.00
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705475.38
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 698346.06
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 719687.89
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 702695.38
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698889.29
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 729938.71
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727632.77
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 743612.93
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 729635.04
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 713185.71
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 743360
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705000.00
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 697210.40
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 718910.62
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 702406.49
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698888.47
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 730024.71
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727702.68
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 743643.75
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 729639.04
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 713179.69
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 676695.84
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 688560
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700334.00
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 726372.74
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 707513.72
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 700786.69
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 730030.10
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727137.58
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 743184.41
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 729436.50
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 713153.44
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 676735.34
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 684241.93
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 705380
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 725414.00
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705223.34
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 699219.11
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 729447.47
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727135.92
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 743357.85
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 729577.49
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 713215.61
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 676743.40
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 684229.81
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 757638.74
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 734000
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 703592.00
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 695321.92
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 726780.16
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 726144.55
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 743355.04
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 729872.62
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 713455.51
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 676849.18
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 684243.52
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 757618.11
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 700404.15
may 2018 734,778.00 734778
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 690560
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697798.00
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 732695.38
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 730193.06
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744859.76
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 729876.89
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 713007.55
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 676485.05
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 684082.97
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 757597.30
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 700435.46
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 717005.47
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 700900
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 732106.00
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 728785.06
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 743896.10
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 729518.72
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 713006.54
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 676591.68
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 684169.64
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 757635.51
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 700440.41
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716998.02
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 697692.09
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 745480
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 726244.00
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 737825.64
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 725363.97
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 711462.32
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 676587.29
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 684629.35
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 758009.20
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 700605.18
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 717019.38
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 697659.96
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 650565.60
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 718000
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 739392.00
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 729105.92
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 714023.40
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 677539.17
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 684632.05
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 757725.82
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 700374.84
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716917.81
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 697646.80
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 650585.40
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 642539.36
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 718000
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 739392.00
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 729105.92
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 714023.40
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 677539.17
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 684632.05
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 757725.82
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 700374.84
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716917.81
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 697646.80
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 650585.40
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 642539.36
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 748560
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 727364.00
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709862.04
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 674691.05
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 683573.48
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 757722.81
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 700689.97
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 717173.98
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 697759.75
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 650600.04
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 642517.33
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 671318.44
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 718280
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 711588.00
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 678814.28
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 686395.51
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 758771.69
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 700692.95
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716861.73
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 697505.93
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 650488.13
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 642502.82
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 671340.27
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 665554.50
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708720
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 679359.20
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687697.29
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 759662.66
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 701024.10
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716862.67
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 697407.35
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 650407.99
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 642467.49
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 671335.69
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 665561.39
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 673485.76
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 666776
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 690088.10
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 765374.17
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 704933.19
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 718315.57
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 697411.48
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 649975.46
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 642115.90
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 671180.66
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 665541.30
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 673515.99
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 721018.01
jan 2019
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.8
Dengan Data Acuan 12 Bulan

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 706480 0 0 jan
-7645.96 706480 -15604 15604 0.022586 feb
3122.65 687911.24 21976.76 21976.76 0.030958 mar
-6391.98 706417.62 -19417.6244 19417.62 0.028264 apr
-381.30 686433.30 12266.6962 12266.70 0.017556 mei
12045.74 694638.69 25361.3113 25361.31 0.035224 jun
33832.44 724437.35 44462.6533 44462.65 0.057826 jul
29670.55 789393.64 -8493.64424 8493.64 0.010877 ags
-74708.58 813118.65 -213018.648 213018.65 0.354972 sep
-49619.12 589297.01 51202.9885 51202.99 0.079942 okt
1074.33 575519.98 103456.015 103456.02 0.152371 nov
21157.70 649013.52 40986.4756 40986.48 0.059401 des
698861.76 36158.2407 jan
556246.82 0.849977
50567.8924
7.727%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 690876 0 0 feb
9315.88 690876 19012 19012 0.026782 mar
-3669.26 713500.28 -26500.28 26500.28 0.038574 apr
-33.86 691280.83 7419.1732 7419.17 0.010619 mei
11510.35 696440.39 23559.6143 23559.61 0.032722 jun
33294.54 724442.46 44457.5356 44457.54 0.05782 jul
29395.47 788857.28 -7957.28044 7957.28 0.01019 ags
-74770.03 812682.66 -212582.658 212582.66 0.354245 sep
-49586.37 589104.77 51395.2313 51395.23 0.080242 okt
1119.29 575495.07 103480.935 103480.93 0.152407 nov
21184.30 649051.01 40948.9877 40948.99 0.059346 des
38883.29 698899.60 36120.3996 36120.40 0.049142 jan
763067.17 -19707.1726 feb
573434.09 0.872089
52130.3722
7.928%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 709888 0 0 mar
-11215.12 709888 -22888 22888 0.033316 apr
-3351.25 682651.28 16048.72 16048.72 0.022969 mei
11087.03 690534.14 29465.8632 29465.86 0.040925 jun
33946.87 722247.27 46652.7332 46652.73 0.060675 jul
30050.85 788851.05 -7951.04507 7951.05 0.010182 ags
-74434.87 813336.17 -213236.166 213236.17 0.355334 sep
-49511.50 589635.98 50864.0187 50864.02 0.079413 okt
1079.39 575729.29 103246.705 103246.71 0.152062 nov
21129.51 649081.37 40918.6255 40918.63 0.059302 des
38850.89 698853.92 36166.0751 36166.08 0.049204 jan
29216.97 763021.07 -19661.0668 19661.07 0.026449 feb
778475.29 -89915.2866 mar
587099.02 0.889832
53372.6381
8.089%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 687000 0 0 apr
5733.00 687000 11700 11700 0.016745 mei
15080.73 700923 19077 19077 0.026496 jun
34456.49 729357.63 39542.37 39542.37 0.051427 jul
29265.54 791493.78 -10593.7803 10593.78 0.013566 ags
-75223.86 813343.67 -213243.673 213243.67 0.355347 sep
-49914.99 588849.24 51650.7589 51650.76 0.080641 okt
989.26 575089.78 103886.217 103886.22 0.153004 nov
21177.56 648799.39 41200.6078 41200.61 0.059711 des
38916.84 698817.37 36202.6273 36202.63 0.049254 jan
29255.98 763076.05 -19716.0542 19716.05 0.026523 feb
-14829.71 778530.79 -89970.7921 89970.79 0.130665 mar
700721.53 4658.47466 apr
636783.88 0.96338
57889.4437
8.758%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 698700 0 0 mei
10437.00 698700 21300 21300 0.029583 jun
32414.97 724047 44853 44853 0.058334 jul
29005.03 787859.07 -6959.07 6959.07 0.008912 ags
-74822.42 811992.75 -211892.747 211892.75 0.353096 sep
-49511.67 588845.40 51654.5962 51654.60 0.080647 okt
1195.51 575491.95 103484.047 103484.05 0.152412 nov
21223.63 649126.30 40873.6991 40873.70 0.059237 des
38892.28 698961.52 36058.4822 36058.48 0.049058 jan
29222.26 763094.74 -19734.7391 19734.74 0.026548 feb
-14849.65 778502.68 -89942.6834 89942.68 0.130624 mar
-12553.10 700693.15 4686.84821 4686.85 0.006644 apr
691420.85 42579.1521 mei
631439.91 0.955096
57403.6284
8.683%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 720000 0 0 jun
23961.00 720000 48900 48900 0.063597 jul
25288.41 778191 2709 2709 0.003469 ags
-75296.69 805375.71 -205275.71 205275.71 0.342069 sep
-48780.84 586386.03 54113.9749 54113.97 0.084487 okt
1929.77 575484.97 103491.033 103491.03 0.152422 nov
21599.12 649858.46 40141.544 40141.54 0.058176 des
38976.16 699556.66 35463.3408 35463.34 0.048248 jan
29177.55 763357.16 -19997.1571 19997.16 0.026901 feb
-14911.03 778536.70 -89976.6995 89976.70 0.130674 mar
-12589.40 700641.98 4738.02053 4738.02 0.006717 apr
8299.69 691369.19 42630.8065 42630.81 0.05808 mei
729510.45 -38950.4529 jun
647437.29 0.974841
58857.9351
8.862%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 768900 0 0 jul
5880.00 768900 12000 12000 0.015367 ags
-83829.20 783180 -183080 183080 0.305082 sep
-49869.65 571194.80 69305.2 69305.20 0.108205 okt
3607.58 569838.79 109137.212 109137.21 0.160738 nov
23284.80 649842.42 40157.5817 40157.58 0.058199 des
39838.21 701237.52 33782.4776 33782.48 0.045961 jan
29370.11 764723.47 -21363.4677 21363.47 0.028739 feb
-15013.67 779139.15 -90579.1521 90579.15 0.131549 mar
-12730.31 700720.07 4659.92711 4659.93 0.006606 apr
8216.35 691251.71 42748.2866 42748.29 0.05824 mei
-10811.26 729391.87 -38831.866 38831.87 0.056232 jun
691398.30 9501.70257 jul
645645.17 0.974919
58695.0155
8.863%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 780900 0 0 ags
-88592.00 780900 -180800 180800 0.301283 sep
-51963.52 565748 74752 74752 0.116709 okt
3340.39 566110.88 112865.12 112865.12 0.166228 nov
23696.53 648456.85 41543.1472 41543.15 0.060207 des
40251.87 701233.59 33786.4132 33786.41 0.045967 jan
29581.66 765135.95 -21775.9494 21775.95 0.029294 feb
-14966.42 779474.44 -90914.443 90914.44 0.132036 mar
-12755.50 700867.91 4512.08599 4512.09 0.006397 apr
8181.77 691270.88 42729.1226 42729.12 0.058214 mei
-10831.71 729363.04 -38803.0365 38803.04 0.056191 jun
-6161.62 691369.20 9530.80365 9530.80 0.013598 jul
691879.14 53600.8619 ags
652012.12 0.986123
59273.8292
8.965%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 600100 0 0 sep
19796.00 600100 40400 40400 0.063076 okt
34888.00 648176 30800 30800 0.045362 nov
27722.24 704624.00 -14624 14624.00 0.021194 des
34048.41 722109.44 12910.56 12910.56 0.017565 jan
23349.14 765195.25 -21835.2464 21835.25 0.029374 feb
-18153.72 773259.72 -84699.7176 84699.72 0.12301 mar
-13467.45 695816.20 9563.80268 9563.80 0.013558 apr
8561.28 689043.40 44956.5954 44956.60 0.061249 mei
-10310.73 729074.30 -38514.2985 38514.30 0.055773 jun
-5853.47 691803.56 9096.43959 9096.44 0.012978 jul
20196.11 692317.59 53162.4056 53162.41 0.071313 ags
749727.38 -31727.3833 sep
360563.07 0.514452
32778.4605
4.677%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 640500 0 0 okt
18853.24 640500 38476 38476 0.056668 nov
20672.88 686286.44 3713.56 3713.56 0.005382 des
33148.86 709558.82 25461.1836 25461.18 0.03464 jan
24735.31 760530.51 -17170.5093 17170.51 0.023099 feb
-16761.05 773246.47 -84686.4676 84686.47 0.122991 mar
-12755.25 697204.89 8175.11403 8175.11 0.01159 apr
8720.37 690172.22 43827.7826 43827.78 0.059711 mei
-10395.53 729572.03 -39012.0303 39012.03 0.056493 jun
-5969.89 691868.08 9031.92069 9031.92 0.012886 jul
20127.25 692220.54 53259.4648 53259.46 0.071443 ags
4628.84 749629.41 -31629.4097 31629.41 0.044052 sep
732117.66 16442.3387 okt
354443.44 0.498954
32222.1311
4.536%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 678976 0 0 nov
5401.76 678976 11024 11024 0.015977 des
26435.23 692094.56 42925.44 42925.44 0.0584 jan
23878.60 748577.59 -5217.5936 5217.59 0.007019 feb
-15440.90 768803.88 -80243.8828 80243.88 0.116539 mar
-11428.91 697192.27 8187.733 8187.73 0.011608 apr
9398.65 691494.77 42505.2286 42505.23 0.057909 mei
-10244.02 730647.08 -40087.0848 40087.08 0.05805 jun
-6050.65 692342.11 8557.89278 8557.89 0.01221 jul
20016.38 692281.98 53198.0186 53198.02 0.071361 ags
4563.26 749536.97 -31536.9728 31536.97 0.043923 sep
12665.73 732024.35 16535.6465 16535.65 0.02209 okt
756265.03 -37985.0345 nov
340019.49 0.475085
30910.863
4.319%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 690000 0 0 des
22059.80 690000 45020 45020 0.06125 jan
21955.04 743573.8 -213.8 213.8 0.000288 feb
-15686.36 765379.18 -76819.178 76819.18 0.111565 mar
-11050.66 695919.39 9460.60582 9460.61 0.013412 apr
9778.67 691491.16 42508.8441 42508.84 0.057914 mei
-10049.68 731026.02 -40466.018 40466.02 0.058599 jun
-6007.24 692650.13 8249.87217 8249.87 0.01177 jul
19993.24 692417.80 53062.2019 53062.20 0.071179 ags
4531.50 749554.58 -31554.5781 31554.58 0.043948 sep
12646.94 731997.87 16562.1311 16562.13 0.022125 okt
-5952.63 756238.30 -37958.3003 37958.30 0.052846 nov
723714.86 -14994.8626 des
361875.53 0.504896
32897.7754
4.590%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 735020 0 0 jan
4086.60 735020 8340 8340 0.011219 feb
-23541.85 744944.6 -56384.6 56384.6 0.081888 mar
-12053.08 681933.53 23446.474 23446.47 0.033239 apr
11323.36 686292.98 47707.0239 47707.02 0.064996 mei
-8497.75 731011.25 -40451.2528 40451.25 0.058577 jun
-5213.59 694197.62 6702.37804 6702.38 0.009563 jul
20170.52 693675.70 51804.3021 51804.30 0.069491 ags
4437.00 750109.23 -32109.2287 32109.23 0.04472 sep
12517.21 732069.77 16490.2341 16490.23 0.022029 okt
-6029.36 756130.14 -37850.1418 37850.14 0.052696 nov
-13323.34 723605.69 -14885.6851 14885.69 0.021004 des
699862.36 -33086.3624 jan
336171.32 0.469422
30561.0291
4.267%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 743360 0 0 feb
-26852.00 743360 -54800 54800 0.079586 mar
-13508.32 678148 27232 27232 0.038606 apr
11137.66 683702.08 50297.92 50297.92 0.068526 mei
-8211.60 730048.28 -39488.2848 39488.28 0.057183 jun
-4926.09 694194.89 6705.11331 6705.11 0.009566 jul
20317.54 693962.37 51517.6272 51517.63 0.069107 ags
4469.84 750342.26 -32342.2559 32342.26 0.045045 sep
12499.71 732172.52 16387.4845 16387.48 0.021892 okt
-6053.39 756143.46 -37863.4608 37863.46 0.052714 nov
-13337.56 723585.65 -14865.6486 14865.65 0.020975 des
-29539.96 699842.14 -33066.1371 33066.14 0.049591 jan
647155.88 52923.1235 feb
364565.93 0.512792
33142.3575
4.662%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 688560 0 0 mar
8241.80 688560 16820 16820 0.023845 apr
20699.66 708575.8 25424.2 25424.2 0.034638 mei
-6991.42 747072.40 -56512.398 56512.40 0.081836 jun
-6806.35 700522.30 377.69762 377.70 0.000539 jul
18428.49 693980.35 51499.6545 51499.65 0.069083 ags
3503.78 748458.59 -30458.5892 30458.59 0.042421 sep
12283.91 730641.35 17918.6464 17918.65 0.023937 okt
-5938.36 755468.32 -37188.3196 37188.32 0.051774 nov
-13179.65 723498.13 -14778.1328 14778.13 0.020852 des
-29446.57 699973.79 -33197.7917 33197.79 0.049789 jan
-3579.35 647288.77 52790.2286 52790.23 0.075406 feb
680662.58 109983.423 mar
336965.66 0.47412
30633.2417
4.310%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 705380 0 0 apr
14023.80 705380 28620 28620 0.038992 mei
-9926.32 739437.8 -48877.8 48877.8 0.07078 jun
-7180.86 695297.02 5602.982 5602.98 0.007994 jul
19005.60 692038.24 53441.7554 53441.76 0.071688 ags
4083.59 748453.07 -30453.0727 30453.07 0.042414 sep
12580.43 731219.52 17340.4845 17340.48 0.023165 okt
-5872.13 755938.29 -37658.2858 37658.29 0.052428 nov
-13214.95 723705.36 -14985.3568 14985.36 0.021144 des
-29495.03 700000.65 -33224.6533 33224.65 0.049829 jan
-3608.02 647248.36 52830.6379 52830.64 0.075464 feb
50303.84 680621.79 110024.213 110024.21 0.139157 mar
807942.58 -153596.579 apr
433059.24 0.593055
39369.0219
5.391%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 734000 0 0 mei
-21285.60 734000 -43440 43440 0.062905 jun
-12174.74 682306.4 18593.6 18593.6 0.026528 jul
18368.34 683147.18 62332.816 62332.82 0.083614 ags
5065.58 745148.50 -27148.499 27148.50 0.037811 sep
13567.02 731210.13 17349.871 17349.87 0.023178 okt
-5367.59 756922.05 -38642.0548 38642.05 0.053798 nov
-13102.25 724505.03 -15785.0257 15785.03 0.022273 des
-29555.11 700353.25 -33577.2544 33577.25 0.050358 jan
-3690.49 647294.07 52784.9317 52784.93 0.075399 feb
50255.06 680553.03 110092.971 110092.97 0.139244 mar
-24973.25 807873.17 -153527.173 153527.17 0.234627 apr
675430.90 59347.0986 may
573274.20 0.809735
52115.836
7.361%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 690560 0 0 jun
5066.60 690560 10340 10340 0.014752 jul
25948.15 702864.6 42615.4 42615.4 0.057165 ags
6032.82 758643.53 -40643.526 40643.53 0.056607 sep
12076.54 736225.88 12334.1239 12334.12 0.016477 okt
-6865.05 756936.30 -38656.3018 38656.30 0.053818 nov
-13868.05 723011.84 -14291.8416 14291.84 0.020166 des
-29726.17 699139.50 -32363.5012 32363.50 0.048537 jan
-3599.31 646758.88 53320.1165 53320.12 0.076163 feb
50380.24 680483.66 110162.345 110162.34 0.139332 mar
-24899.21 807977.54 -153631.536 153631.54 0.234786 apr
4129.25 675536.25 59241.7526 59241.75 0.080625 may
721134.72 -33478.7196 jun
567600.44 0.798429
51600.0404
7.258%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 700900 0 0 jul
21844.20 700900 44580 44580 0.0598 ags
4228.60 753950.2 -35950.2 35950.2 0.05007 sep
11846.31 733013.66 15546.338 15546.34 0.020768 okt
-6510.27 755742.41 -37462.4062 37462.41 0.052156 nov
-13511.61 723008.45 -14288.4504 14288.45 0.020161 des
-29543.88 699494.92 -32718.923 32718.92 0.04907 jan
-3558.59 647047.79 53031.2075 53031.21 0.07575 feb
50358.54 680611.05 110034.955 110034.95 0.139171 mar
-24929.01 807994.05 -153648.049 153648.05 0.234812 apr
4111.62 675511.41 59266.594 59266.59 0.080659 may
-12280.66 721109.64 -33453.6442 33453.64 0.048649 jun
685411.43 -49733.43 jul
589980.77 0.831067
53634.6152
7.555%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 745480 0 0 ags
-13465.20 745480 -27480 27480 0.038273 sep
4067.59 712778.8 35781.2 35781.2 0.0478 okt
-7502.89 741893.23 -23613.228 23613.23 0.032875 nov
-11982.02 717861.07 -9141.07468 9141.07 0.012898 des
-28007.13 699480.30 -32704.3021 32704.30 0.049048 jan
-2772.70 648580.16 51498.8377 51498.84 0.073561 feb
50534.08 681856.65 108789.349 108789.35 0.137596 mar
-25022.58 808543.28 -154197.278 154197.28 0.235651 apr
3983.16 675582.60 59195.3997 59195.40 0.080562 may
-12356.64 721002.54 -33346.5427 33346.54 0.048493 jun
-36673.05 685303.32 -49625.3195 49625.32 0.078067 jul
613892.55 40895.454 aug
585372.53 0.834824
53215.6847
7.589%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 718000 0 0 sep
14974.40 718000 30560 30560 0.040825 okt
-2707.94 754366.4 -36086.4 36086.4 0.05024 nov
-11370.15 726397.98 -17677.984 17677.98 0.024944 des
-28950.00 702653.25 -35877.247 35877.25 0.053807 jan
-3719.98 648589.17 51489.8251 51489.83 0.073549 feb
50049.64 680912.07 109733.932 109733.93 0.13879 mar
-25130.79 807775.46 -153429.462 153429.46 0.234478 apr
4040.84 675244.04 59533.9558 59533.96 0.081023 may
-12277.46 720958.66 -33302.6571 33302.66 0.048429 jun
-36626.21 685369.34 -49691.339 49691.34 0.078171 jul
-16620.10 613959.19 40828.8125 40828.81 0.062354 aug
625919.26 64887.7399 sep
618211.62 0.886609
56201.0559
8.060%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 718000 0 0 sep
14974.40 718000 30560 30560 0.040825 okt
-2707.94 754366.4 -36086.4 36086.4 0.05024 nov
-11370.15 726397.98 -17677.984 17677.98 0.024944 des
-28950.00 702653.25 -35877.247 35877.25 0.053807 jan
-3719.98 648589.17 51489.8251 51489.83 0.073549 feb
50049.64 680912.07 109733.932 109733.93 0.13879 mar
-25130.79 807775.46 -153429.462 153429.46 0.234478 apr
4040.84 675244.04 59533.9558 59533.96 0.081023 may
-12277.46 720958.66 -33302.6571 33302.66 0.048429 jun
-36626.21 685369.34 -49691.339 49691.34 0.078171 jul
-16620.10 613959.19 40828.8125 40828.81 0.062354 aug
625919.26 64887.7399 sep
618211.62 0.886609
56201.0559
8.060%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 748560 0 0 okt
-14837.20 748560 -30280 30280 0.042156 nov
-16702.53 712526.8 -3806.8 3806.8 0.005371 des
-29630.45 693159.51 -26383.508 26383.51 0.039569 jan
-2671.44 645060.60 55018.3985 55018.40 0.078589 feb
51103.10 680902.04 109743.955 109743.96 0.138803 mar
-24592.06 808825.92 -154479.916 154479.92 0.236083 apr
4161.18 676097.92 58680.0816 58680.08 0.079861 may
-12341.60 721335.16 -33679.1591 33679.16 0.048977 jun
-36714.27 685418.14 -49740.1434 49740.14 0.078247 jul
-16672.18 613885.77 40902.2316 40902.23 0.062466 aug
15159.13 625845.15 64961.8506 64961.85 0.094038 sep
686477.57 -29921.5705 oct
627676.04 0.90416
57061.4585
8.220%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 718280 0 0 nov
-4684.40 718280 -9560 9560 0.013489 des
-24346.92 706903.6 -40127.6 40127.6 0.060182 jan
-1997.22 654467.36 45611.644 45611.64 0.065152 feb
50064.16 684398.29 106247.712 106247.71 0.134381 mar
-25635.86 808835.85 -154489.847 154489.85 0.236098 apr
3627.38 675057.09 59720.9106 59720.91 0.081277 may
-12460.84 720489.11 -32833.1084 32833.11 0.047746 jun
-36650.72 685045.09 -49367.091 49367.09 0.077661 jul
-16584.93 613837.41 40950.5888 40950.59 0.06254 aug
15210.73 625917.90 64889.1042 64889.10 0.093932 sep
513.18 686551.00 -29995.0022 29995.00 0.045685 oct
666067.68 10587.3169 nov
633792.61 0.918144
57617.5098
8.347%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 708720 0 0 des
-20552.56 708720 -41944 41944 0.062906 jan
-329.10 658806.64 41272.36 41272.36 0.058954 feb
50277.02 687368.19 103277.812 103277.81 0.130625 mar
-25963.88 809939.68 -155593.681 155593.68 0.237785 apr
3297.83 675060.22 59717.7752 59717.78 0.081273 may
-12629.37 720160.50 -32504.4979 32504.50 0.047269 jun
-36688.36 684777.98 -49099.9759 49099.98 0.07724 jul
-16564.86 613719.63 41068.3689 41068.37 0.06272 aug
15238.28 625902.63 64904.3716 64904.37 0.093954 sep
529.48 686573.97 -30017.9697 30017.97 0.04572 oct
5705.90 666090.87 10564.1331 10564.13 0.015612 nov
679191.66 59708.3387 dec
629964.94 0.914058
57269.5404
8.310%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 666776 0 0 jan
16318.47 666776 33303 33303 0.04757 feb
57595.79 706406.57 84239.43 84239.43 0.106545 mar
-25029.95 822969.96 -168623.962 168623.96 0.257698 apr
1858.68 679903.24 54874.762 54874.76 0.074682 may
-14075.26 720174.25 -32518.2543 32518.25 0.047289 jun
-37427.79 683336.21 -47658.2146 47658.21 0.074972 jul
-16730.03 612547.68 42240.3225 42240.32 0.06451 aug
15326.32 625385.87 65421.1256 65421.13 0.094702 sep
650.34 686506.99 -29950.985 29950.99 0.045618 oct
5777.39 666191.64 10463.3645 10463.36 0.015463 nov
34984.63 679293.38 59606.6207 59606.62 0.080669 dec
756002.65 jan
628900.04 0.90972
57172.731
8.270%
TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
2016 706,480.00 706,480.00 706480 0 706480 0
2016 690,876.00 690,876.00 693996.80 -9986.56 706480 15604
2016 709,888.00 709,888.00 704712.45 6575.21 684010.24 -25877.76
2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 691857.53 -8968.89 711287.65 24287.6544
2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 695537.73 1150.38 682888.64 -15811.3615
2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 715337.62 16069.99 696688.11 -23311.8933
2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 761401.52 40065.12 731407.61 -37492.388
2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 785013.33 26902.47 801466.64 20566.6414
2016 600,100.00 600,100.00 642463.16 -108659.64 811915.80 211815.797
2016 640,500.00 640,500.00 619160.70 -40373.89 533803.52 -106696.482
2016 678,976.00 678,976.00 658938.16 23747.19 578786.81 -100189.189
2016 690,000.00 690,000.00 688537.07 28428.56 682685.35 -7314.6496
2017 735,020.00 735,020.00 716965.63 -18054.3659
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 690,876.00 690876 690876 0 690876 0
2016 709,888.00 709888 706085.60 12167.68 690876 -19012
2016 687,000.00 687000 693250.66 -7834.42 718253.28 31253.28
2016 698,700.00 698700 696043.25 667.19 685416.24 -13283.7632
2016 720,000.00 720000 715342.09 15572.51 696710.44 -23289.5634
2016 768,900.00 768900 761302.92 39883.17 730914.60 -37985.4029
2016 780,900.00 780900 784957.22 26900.07 801186.09 20286.0871
2016 600,100.00 600100 642451.46 -108624.59 811857.29 211757.289
2016 640,500.00 640500 619165.37 -40353.79 533826.86 -106673.135
2016 678,976.00 678976 658943.12 23751.44 578811.59 -100164.414
2016 690,000.00 690000 688538.91 28426.92 682694.56 -7305.44459
2017 735,020.00 735020 731409.17 39981.59 716965.83 -18054.1662
2017 743,360.00 743360 771390.76 28030.7558
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 709,888.00 709888 709888 0 709888 0
2016 687,000.00 687000 691577.60 -14648.32 709888 22888
2016 698,700.00 698700 694345.86 -715.06 676929.28 -21770.72
2016 720,000.00 720000 714726.16 16161.23 693630.80 -26369.2032
2016 768,900.00 768900 761297.48 40489.30 730887.39 -38012.6098
2016 780,900.00 780900 785077.36 27121.76 801786.78 20886.7792
2016 600,100.00 600100 642519.82 -108621.67 812199.12 212099.118
2016 640,500.00 640500 619179.63 -40396.49 533898.15 -106601.85
2016 678,976.00 678976 658937.43 23726.94 578783.14 -100192.859
2016 690,000.00 690000 688532.87 28421.74 682664.37 -7335.63136
2017 735,020.00 735020 731406.92 39983.59 716954.62 -18065.3817
2017 743,360.00 743360 748966.10 22044.06 771390.51 28030.5125
2017 688,560.00 688560 771010.16 82450.1634
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 687,000.00 687000 687000 0 687000 0
2016 698,700.00 698700 696360.00 7488.00 687000 -11700
2016 720,000.00 720000 716769.60 17825.28 703848 -16152
2016 768,900.00 768900 762038.98 39780.56 734594.88 -34305.12
2016 780,900.00 780900 785083.91 26392.06 801819.53 20919.5328
2016 600,100.00 600100 642375.19 -108888.56 811475.96 211375.962
2016 640,500.00 640500 619097.33 -40400.00 533486.63 -107013.368
2016 678,976.00 678976 658920.26 23778.35 578697.32 -100278.678
2016 690,000.00 690000 688539.72 28451.24 682698.61 -7301.38635
2017 735,020.00 735020 731414.19 39989.82 716990.96 -18029.0407
2017 743,360.00 743360 748968.80 22041.65 771404.01 28044.0145
2017 688,560.00 688560 705050.09 -30726.64 771010.46 82450.4562
2017 705,380.00 705380 674323.45 -31056.5474
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 698,700.00 698700 698700 0 698700 0
2016 720,000.00 720000 715740.00 13632.00 698700 -21300
2016 768,900.00 768900 760994.40 38929.92 729372 -39528
2016 780,900.00 780900 784704.86 26754.36 799924.32 19024.32
2016 600,100.00 600100 642371.84 -108515.55 811459.22 211359.219
2016 640,500.00 640500 619171.26 -40263.58 533856.30 -106643.701
2016 678,976.00 678976 658962.34 23780.15 578907.68 -100068.317
2016 690,000.00 690000 688548.50 28424.96 682742.48 -7257.51701
2017 735,020.00 735020 731410.69 39974.75 716973.45 -18046.5462
2017 743,360.00 743360 748965.09 22038.47 771385.44 28025.4375
2017 688,560.00 688560 705048.71 -30725.41 771003.55 82443.5543
2017 705,380.00 705380 699168.66 -10849.12 674323.30 -31056.6971
2017 734,000.00 734000 688319.54 -45680.4612
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 720,000.00 720000 720000 0 720000 0
2016 768,900.00 768900 759120.00 31296.00 720000 -48900
2016 780,900.00 780900 782803.20 25205.76 790416 9516
2016 600,100.00 600100 641681.79 -107855.97 808008.96 207908.96
2016 640,500.00 640500 619165.16 -39584.50 533825.82 -106674.182
2016 678,976.00 678976 659096.93 24028.52 579580.67 -99395.3341
2016 690,000.00 690000 688625.09 28428.23 683125.45 -6874.55064
2017 735,020.00 735020 731426.66 39926.90 717053.32 -17966.6815
2017 743,360.00 743360 748958.71 22011.02 771353.57 27993.5685
2017 688,560.00 688560 705041.95 -30731.21 770969.73 82409.7346
2017 705,380.00 705380 699166.15 -10846.88 674310.74 -31069.2623
2017 734,000.00 734000 724863.85 18388.79 688319.27 -45680.7338
2017 690,560.00 690560 743252.64 52692.6415
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 768,900.00 768900 768900 0 768900 0
2016 780,900.00 780900 778500.00 7680.00 768900 -12000
2016 600,100.00 600100 637316.00 -111411.20 786180 186080
2016 640,500.00 640500 617580.96 -38070.27 525904.80 -114595.2
2016 678,976.00 678976 659082.94 25587.53 579510.69 -99465.312
2016 690,000.00 690000 688934.09 28998.43 684670.47 -5329.53472
2017 735,020.00 735020 731602.50 39934.42 717932.52 -17087.477
2017 743,360.00 743360 748995.38 21901.19 771536.92 28176.9198
2017 688,560.00 688560 705027.31 -30794.22 770896.57 82336.5705
2017 705,380.00 705380 699150.62 -10860.20 674233.10 -31146.9045
2017 734,000.00 734000 724858.08 18393.93 688290.42 -45709.5806
2017 690,560.00 690560 701098.40 -15328.96 743252.02 52692.0158
2017 700,900.00 700900 685769.44 -15130.5551
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 780,900.00 780900 780900 0 780900 0
2016 600,100.00 600100 636260.00 -115712.00 780900 180800
2016 640,500.00 640500 616509.60 -38942.72 520548 -119952
2016 678,976.00 678976 658694.18 25959.12 577566.88 -101409.12
2016 690,000.00 690000 688930.66 29381.01 684653.29 -5346.7072
2017 735,020.00 735020 731678.33 40074.34 718311.67 -16708.332
2017 743,360.00 743360 749038.54 21903.03 771752.68 28392.6755
2017 688,560.00 688560 705036.31 -30821.17 770941.56 82381.5647
2017 705,380.00 705380 699147.03 -10875.66 674215.14 -31164.8589
2017 734,000.00 734000 724854.27 18390.66 688271.37 -45728.6339
2017 690,560.00 690560 701096.99 -15327.70 743244.94 52684.9368
2017 700,900.00 700900 697873.86 -5644.04 685769.29 -15130.7086
2017 745,480.00 745480 692229.82 -53250.1842
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 600,100.00 600100 600100 0 600100 0
2016 640,500.00 640500 632420.00 25856.00 600100 -40400
2016 678,976.00 678976 674836.00 39104.00 658276 -20700
2016 690,000.00 690000 694788.00 23782.40 713940.00 23940
2017 735,020.00 735020 731730.08 34310.14 718570.40 -16449.6
2017 743,360.00 743360 747896.04 19794.80 766040.22 22680.224
2017 688,560.00 688560 704386.17 -30848.94 767690.85 79130.8454
2017 705,380.00 705380 699011.45 -10469.57 673537.23 -31842.7714
2017 734,000.00 734000 724908.38 18623.63 688541.88 -45458.121
2017 690,560.00 690560 701154.40 -15278.45 743532.01 52972.0065
2017 700,900.00 700900 697895.19 -5663.06 685875.95 -15024.0522
2017 745,480.00 745480 734830.43 28415.58 692232.13 -53247.8705
2017 718,000.00 718000 763246.00 45246.0029
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 640,500.00 640500 640500 0 640500 0
2016 678,976.00 678976 671280.80 24624.64 640500 -38476
2016 690,000.00 690000 691181.09 20845.16 695905.44 5905.44
2017 735,020.00 735020 730421.25 35561.16 712026.25 -22993.7536
2017 743,360.00 743360 747884.48 21082.82 765982.41 22622.41
2017 688,560.00 688560 704641.46 -30377.85 768967.30 80407.3003
2017 705,380.00 705380 699156.72 -10463.36 674263.61 -31116.3938
2017 734,000.00 734000 724938.67 18532.89 688693.36 -45306.6406
2017 690,560.00 690560 701142.31 -15330.51 743471.56 52911.56
2017 700,900.00 700900 697882.36 -5674.06 685811.80 -15088.1983
2017 745,480.00 745480 734825.66 28419.83 692208.30 -53271.703
2017 718,000.00 718000 727049.10 -537.28 763245.49 45245.486
2017 748,560.00 748560 726511.81 -22048.1873
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 678,976.00 678976 678976 0 678976 0
2016 690,000.00 690000 687795.20 7055.36 678976 -11024
2017 735,020.00 735020 726986.11 32763.80 694850.56 -40169.44
2017 743,360.00 743360 746637.98 22274.26 759749.91 16389.9136
2017 688,560.00 688560 704630.45 -29151.18 768912.24 80352.2396
2017 705,380.00 705380 699399.85 -10014.71 675479.27 -29900.7285
2017 734,000.00 734000 725077.03 18538.80 689385.14 -44614.8559
2017 690,560.00 690560 701171.17 -15416.93 743615.83 53055.8264
2017 700,900.00 700900 697870.85 -5723.64 685754.23 -15145.766
2017 745,480.00 745480 734813.44 28409.35 692147.21 -53332.7943
2017 718,000.00 718000 727044.56 -533.24 763222.79 45222.7884
2017 748,560.00 748560 744150.26 13577.92 726511.32 -22048.6796
2017 718,280.00 718280 757728.18 39448.1817
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 690,000.00 690000 690000 0 690000 0
2017 735,020.00 735020 726016.00 28812.80 690000 -45020
2017 743,360.00 743360 745653.76 21472.77 754828.8 11468.8
2017 688,560.00 688560 704273.31 -28809.81 767126.53 78566.528
2017 705,380.00 705380 699396.70 -9663.25 675463.50 -29916.5043
2017 734,000.00 734000 725146.69 18667.34 689733.45 -44266.548
2017 690,560.00 690560 701210.81 -15415.24 743814.03 53254.034
2017 700,900.00 700900 697879.11 -5748.40 685795.57 -15104.4314
2017 745,480.00 745480 734810.14 28395.14 692130.71 -53349.2884
2017 718,000.00 718000 727041.06 -536.24 763205.28 45205.2848
2017 748,560.00 748560 744148.96 13579.08 726504.82 -22055.1828
2017 718,280.00 718280 726169.61 -11667.67 757728.04 39448.0406
2017 708,720.00 708720 714501.94 5781.93933
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 735,020.00 735020 735020 0 735020 0
2017 743,360.00 743360 741692.00 5337.60 735020 -8340
2017 688,560.00 688560 700253.92 -32082.94 747029.6 58469.6
2017 705,380.00 705380 697938.20 -8269.17 668170.98 -37209.024
2017 734,000.00 734000 725133.81 20102.65 689669.03 -44330.9734
2017 690,560.00 690560 701495.29 -14890.28 745236.46 54676.4597
2017 700,900.00 700900 698041.00 -5741.49 686605.01 -14294.9879
2017 745,480.00 745480 734843.90 28294.02 692299.51 -53180.4852
2017 718,000.00 718000 727027.59 -594.25 763137.93 45137.9259
2017 748,560.00 748560 744134.67 13566.82 726433.34 -22126.6645
2017 718,280.00 718280 726164.30 -11662.93 757701.48 39421.4827
2017 708,720.00 708720 709876.27 -15363.01 714501.36 5781.36322
2018 666,776.00 666776 694513.27 27737.2669
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 743,360.00 743360 743360 0 743360 0
2017 688,560.00 688560 699520.00 -35072.00 743360 54800
2017 705,380.00 705380 697193.60 -8875.52 664448 -40932
2017 734,000.00 734000 724863.62 20360.91 688318.08 -45681.92
2017 690,560.00 690560 701492.90 -14624.39 745224.52 54664.5248
2017 700,900.00 700900 698093.70 -5644.24 686868.52 -14031.4821
2017 745,480.00 745480 734873.89 28295.30 692449.47 -53030.5349
2017 718,000.00 718000 727033.84 -612.98 763169.20 45169.1969
2017 748,560.00 748560 744132.17 13556.07 726420.86 -22139.1428
2017 718,280.00 718280 726161.65 -11665.20 757688.24 39408.2407
2017 708,720.00 708720 709875.29 -15362.13 714496.44 5776.44333
2018 666,776.00 666776 672323.43 -33113.91 694513.16 27737.1601
2018 700,079.00 700079 639209.52 -60869.479
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 688,560.00 688560 688560 0 688560 0
2017 705,380.00 705380 702016.00 10764.80 688560 -16820
2017 734,000.00 734000 729756.16 24345.09 712780.8 -21219.2
2017 690,560.00 690560 703268.25 -16321.31 754101.25 63541.248
2017 700,900.00 700900 698109.39 -7391.35 686946.94 -13953.0611
2017 745,480.00 745480 734527.61 27656.31 690718.04 -54761.9638
2017 718,000.00 718000 726836.78 -621.40 762183.91 44183.9125
2017 748,560.00 748560 744091.08 13679.16 726215.38 -22344.6162
2017 718,280.00 718280 726178.05 -11594.59 757770.23 39490.2324
2017 708,720.00 708720 709892.69 -15347.20 714583.45 5863.4534
2018 666,776.00 666776 672329.90 -33119.68 694545.49 27769.4874
2018 700,079.00 700079 687905.24 5836.34 639210.22 -60868.7777
2018 790,646.00 790646 693741.59 -96904.413
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 705,380.00 705380 705380 0 705380 0
2017 734,000.00 734000 728276.00 18316.80 705380 -28620
2017 690,560.00 690560 701766.56 -17544.19 746592.8 56032.8
2017 700,900.00 700900 697564.47 -6870.51 684222.37 -16677.632
2017 745,480.00 745480 734522.79 28192.55 690693.97 -54786.0339
2017 718,000.00 718000 726943.07 -425.27 762715.35 44715.3474
2017 748,560.00 748560 744151.56 13681.74 726517.80 -22042.1987
2017 718,280.00 718280 726190.66 -11632.37 757833.30 39553.2993
2017 708,720.00 708720 709887.66 -15368.88 714558.29 5838.28732
2018 666,776.00 666776 672324.56 -33124.26 694518.78 27742.781
2018 700,079.00 700079 687903.26 5838.11 639200.30 -60878.7001
2018 790,646.00 790646 771265.07 67857.07 693741.37 -96904.6283
2018 654,346.00 654346 839122.15 184776.148
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 734,000.00 734000 734000 0 734000 0
2017 690,560.00 690560 699248.00 -27801.60 734000 43440
2017 700,900.00 700900 695009.28 -8951.30 671446.4 -29453.6
2017 745,480.00 745480 733595.60 29078.79 686057.98 -59422.016
2017 718,000.00 718000 726934.88 487.18 762674.39 44674.391
2017 748,560.00 748560 744332.41 14015.46 727422.06 -21137.9378
2017 718,280.00 718280 726293.58 -11627.98 758347.88 40067.8766
2017 708,720.00 708720 709909.12 -15433.16 714665.60 5945.59847
2018 666,776.00 666776 672315.99 -33161.13 694475.96 27699.9598
2018 700,079.00 700079 687894.17 5830.32 639154.86 -60924.1422
2018 790,646.00 790646 771261.70 67860.08 693724.49 -96921.5116
2018 654,346.00 654346 691301.16 -50396.42 839121.78 184775.782
2018 734,778.00 734778 640904.74 -93873.2598
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 690,560.00 690560 690560 0 690560 0
2017 700,900.00 700900 698832.00 6617.60 690560 -10340
2017 745,480.00 745480 737473.92 32237.06 705449.6 -40030.4
2017 718,000.00 718000 728342.20 -857.97 769710.98 51710.976
2017 748,560.00 748560 744344.85 12630.53 727484.23 -21075.7734
2017 718,280.00 718280 726019.07 -12134.51 756975.37 38695.3717
2017 708,720.00 708720 709752.91 -15439.83 713884.56 5164.56283
2018 666,776.00 666776 672283.42 -33063.56 694313.08 27537.0808
2018 700,079.00 700079 687907.17 5886.29 639219.85 -60859.1473
2018 790,646.00 790646 771275.49 67871.92 693793.46 -96852.5387
2018 654,346.00 654346 691306.28 -50400.99 839147.41 184801.408
2018 734,778.00 734778 716003.46 9677.55 640905.30 -93872.7039
2018 687,656.00 687656 725681.00 38025.0043
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 700,900.00 700900 700900 0 700900 0
2017 745,480.00 745480 736564.00 28531.20 700900 -44580
2017 718,000.00 718000 727419.04 -1609.73 765095.2 47095.2
2017 748,560.00 748560 744009.86 12950.71 725809.31 -22750.688
2017 718,280.00 718280 726016.11 -11804.86 756960.57 38680.5747
2017 708,720.00 708720 709818.25 -15319.26 714211.26 5491.25944
2018 666,776.00 666776 672320.60 -33061.98 694498.99 27722.9903
2018 700,079.00 700079 687914.92 5863.07 639258.62 -60820.3773
2018 790,646.00 790646 771272.40 67858.59 693777.99 -96868.0094
2018 654,346.00 654346 691303.00 -50403.80 839130.99 184784.99
2018 734,778.00 734778 716002.24 9678.63 640899.20 -93878.8036
2018 687,656.00 687656 695260.97 -14657.29 725680.87 38024.8719
2018 635,678.00 635678 680603.69 44925.689
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 745,480.00 745480 745480 0 745480 0
2017 718,000.00 718000 723496.00 -17587.20 745480 27480
2017 748,560.00 748560 740029.76 9709.57 705908.8 -42651.2
2017 718,280.00 718280 724571.87 -10424.40 749739.33 31459.328
2017 708,720.00 708720 709805.49 -13897.98 714147.46 5427.46368
2018 666,776.00 666776 672602.30 -32542.15 695907.51 29131.5141
2018 700,079.00 700079 688075.23 5869.91 640060.16 -60018.8449
2018 790,646.00 790646 771305.83 67758.46 693945.14 -96700.8559
2018 654,346.00 654346 691289.66 -50461.24 839064.29 184718.29
2018 734,778.00 734778 715988.08 9666.49 640828.41 -93949.5866
2018 687,656.00 687656 695255.71 -14652.60 725654.57 37998.5736
2018 635,678.00 635678 644663.02 -43404.67 680603.12 44925.1185
2018 654,788.00 654788 601258.35 -53529.6483
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 718,000.00 718000 718000 0 718000 0
2017 748,560.00 748560 742448.00 19558.40 718000 -30560
2017 718,280.00 718280 727025.28 -8426.50 762006.4 43726.4
2017 708,720.00 708720 710695.76 -14748.92 718598.78 9878.784
2018 666,776.00 666776 672610.17 -33418.25 695946.84 29170.839
2018 700,079.00 700079 687901.58 5549.48 639191.91 -60887.0869
2018 790,646.00 790646 771207.01 67754.24 693451.06 -97194.9365
2018 654,346.00 654346 691269.05 -50399.52 838961.25 184615.253
2018 734,778.00 734778 715996.31 9701.90 640869.53 -93908.471
2018 687,656.00 687656 695264.44 -14645.11 725698.21 38042.2056
2018 635,678.00 635678 644666.27 -43407.56 680619.33 44941.3294
2018 654,788.00 654788 644082.14 -9148.81 601258.70 -53529.2967
2018 690,807.00 690807 634933.33 -55873.672
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 718,000.00 718000 718000 0 718000 0
2017 748,560.00 748560 742448.00 19558.40 718000 -30560
2017 718,280.00 718280 727025.28 -8426.50 762006.4 43726.4
2017 708,720.00 708720 710695.76 -14748.92 718598.78 9878.784
2018 666,776.00 666776 672610.17 -33418.25 695946.84 29170.839
2018 700,079.00 700079 687901.58 5549.48 639191.91 -60887.0869
2018 790,646.00 790646 771207.01 67754.24 693451.06 -97194.9365
2018 654,346.00 654346 691269.05 -50399.52 838961.25 184615.253
2018 734,778.00 734778 715996.31 9701.90 640869.53 -93908.471
2018 687,656.00 687656 695264.44 -14645.11 725698.21 38042.2056
2018 635,678.00 635678 644666.27 -43407.56 680619.33 44941.3294
2018 654,788.00 654788 644082.14 -9148.81 601258.70 -53529.2967
2018 690,807.00 690807 634933.33 -55873.672
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 748,560.00 748560 748560 0 748560 0
2017 718,280.00 718280 724336.00 -19379.20 748560 30280
2017 708,720.00 708720 707967.36 -16970.75 704956.8 -3763.2
2018 666,776.00 666776 671620.12 -32471.94 690996.61 24220.608
2018 700,079.00 700079 687892.84 6523.78 639148.18 -60930.8195
2018 790,646.00 790646 771400.12 68110.59 694416.62 -96229.3805
2018 654,346.00 654346 691378.94 -50394.83 839510.71 185164.711
2018 734,778.00 734778 716019.22 9633.26 640984.11 -93793.8858
2018 687,656.00 687656 695255.30 -14684.49 725652.48 37996.4818
2018 635,678.00 635678 644656.56 -43415.89 680570.81 44892.807
2018 654,788.00 654788 644078.54 -9145.60 601240.68 -53547.3245
2018 690,807.00 690807 679632.19 26613.80 634932.94 -55874.0631
2018 656,556.00 656556 706245.99 49689.9896
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 718,280.00 718280 718280 0 718280 0
2017 708,720.00 708720 710632.00 -6118.40 718280 9560
2018 666,776.00 666776 674323.52 -30270.46 704513.6 37737.6
2018 700,079.00 700079 688873.81 5586.14 644053.06 -56025.944
2018 790,646.00 790646 771408.79 67145.21 694459.95 -96186.0486
2018 654,346.00 654346 691187.60 -50747.91 838554.00 184208.002
2018 734,778.00 734778 715910.34 9628.61 640439.69 -94338.3094
2018 687,656.00 687656 695232.59 -14616.48 725538.95 37882.9464
2018 635,678.00 635678 644665.62 -43376.87 680616.11 44938.1119
2018 654,788.00 654788 644088.15 -9137.35 601288.75 -53499.2466
2018 690,807.00 690807 679635.76 26610.62 634950.80 -55856.2005
2018 656,556.00 656556 666494.08 -5191.22 706246.38 49690.3771
2018 676,655.00 676655 661302.85 -15352.1488
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 708,720.00 708720 708720 0 708720 0
2018 666,776.00 666776 675164.80 -26844.16 708720 41944
2018 700,079.00 700079 689727.33 6281.19 648320.64 -51758.36
2018 790,646.00 790646 771718.50 66849.18 696008.52 -94637.4816
2018 654,346.00 654346 691190.34 -51052.70 838567.68 184221.682
2018 734,778.00 734778 715849.93 9517.13 640137.64 -94640.3616
2018 687,656.00 687656 695198.21 -14617.95 725367.06 37711.061
2018 635,678.00 635678 644658.45 -43355.40 680580.27 44902.2665
2018 654,788.00 654788 644091.01 -9125.03 601303.06 -53484.943
2018 690,807.00 690807 679638.80 26613.22 634965.98 -55841.0214
2018 656,556.00 656556 666495.20 -5192.23 706252.02 49696.0166
2018 676,655.00 676655 673584.59 4633.07 661302.97 -15352.0264
2018 738,900.00 738900 678217.66 -60682.3381
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 666,776.00 666776 666776 0 666776 0
2018 700,079.00 700079 693418.40 21313.92 666776 -33303
2018 790,646.00 790646 775463.26 69898.68 714732.32 -75913.68
2018 654,346.00 654346 692549.19 -52351.53 845361.94 191015.939
2018 734,778.00 734778 715861.93 8179.89 640197.66 -94580.338
2018 687,656.00 687656 694933.16 -15107.04 724041.82 36385.8229
2018 635,678.00 635678 644507.63 -43361.84 679826.13 44148.1284
2018 654,788.00 654788 644059.56 -9030.82 601145.79 -53642.2127
2018 690,807.00 690807 679651.35 26667.27 635028.74 -55778.2648
2018 656,556.00 656556 666508.52 -5180.81 706318.61 49762.6143
2018 676,655.00 676655 673589.54 4628.66 661327.72 -15327.2831
2018 738,900.00 738900 726763.64 43465.01 678218.20 -60681.8014
2019 770228.65
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.9
Dengan Data Acuan 12 Bulan

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jan 2016 706,480.00
15604 0.022586 feb 2016 690,876.00
25877.76 0.036453 mar 2016 709,888.00
24287.65 0.035353 apr 2016 687,000.00
15811.36 0.02263 mei 2016 698,700.00
23311.89 0.032378 jun 2016 720,000.00
37492.39 0.048761 jul 2016 768,900.00
20566.64 0.026337 ags 2016 780,900.00
211815.80 0.352968 sep 2016 600,100.00
106696.48 0.166583 okt 2016 640,500.00
100189.19 0.147559 nov 2016 678,976.00
7314.65 0.010601 des 2016 690,000.00
jan 2017 735,020.00
588967.82 0.902209 total
53542.5288 mad
8.202% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 feb 2016 690,876.00
19012 0.026782 mar 2016 709,888.00
31253.28 0.045492 apr 2016 687,000.00
13283.76 0.019012 mei 2016 698,700.00
23289.56 0.032347 jun 2016 720,000.00
37985.40 0.049402 jul 2016 768,900.00
20286.09 0.025978 ags 2016 780,900.00
211757.29 0.35287 sep 2016 600,100.00
106673.14 0.166547 okt 2016 640,500.00
100164.41 0.147523 nov 2016 678,976.00
7305.44 0.010588 des 2016 690,000.00
18054.17 0.024563 jan 2017 735,020.00
feb 2017 743,360.00
589064.55 0.901103 total
53551.3223 mad
8.192% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mar 2016 709,888.00
22888 0.033316 apr 2016 687,000.00
21770.72 0.031159 mei 2016 698,700.00
26369.20 0.036624 jun 2016 720,000.00
38012.61 0.049438 jul 2016 768,900.00
20886.78 0.026747 ags 2016 780,900.00
212099.12 0.35344 sep 2016 600,100.00
106601.85 0.166435 okt 2016 640,500.00
100192.86 0.147565 nov 2016 678,976.00
7335.63 0.010631 des 2016 690,000.00
18065.38 0.024578 jan 2017 735,020.00
28030.51 0.037708 feb 2017 743,360.00
mar 2017 688,560.00
602252.67 0.91764 total
54750.2423 mad
8.342% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 apr 2016 687,000.00
11700 0.016745 mei 2016 698,700.00
16152 0.022433 jun 2016 720,000.00
34305.12 0.044616 jul 2016 768,900.00
20919.53 0.026789 ags 2016 780,900.00
211375.96 0.352235 sep 2016 600,100.00
107013.37 0.167078 okt 2016 640,500.00
100278.68 0.147691 nov 2016 678,976.00
7301.39 0.010582 des 2016 690,000.00
18029.04 0.024529 jan 2017 735,020.00
28044.01 0.037726 feb 2017 743,360.00
82450.46 0.119743 mar 2017 688,560.00
apr 2017 705,380.00
637569.56 0.970167 total
57960.869 mad
8.820% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mei 2016 698,700.00
21300 0.029583 jun 2016 720,000.00
39528 0.051409 jul 2016 768,900.00
19024.32 0.024362 ags 2016 780,900.00
211359.22 0.352207 sep 2016 600,100.00
106643.70 0.166501 okt 2016 640,500.00
100068.32 0.147381 nov 2016 678,976.00
7257.52 0.010518 des 2016 690,000.00
18046.55 0.024552 jan 2017 735,020.00
28025.44 0.037701 feb 2017 743,360.00
82443.55 0.119733 mar 2017 688,560.00
31056.70 0.044028 apr 2017 705,380.00
mei 2017 734,000.00
664753.31 1.007976 total
60432.119 mad
9.163% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jun 2016 720,000.00
48900 0.063597 jul 2016 768,900.00
9516 0.012186 ags 2016 780,900.00
207908.96 0.346457 sep 2016 600,100.00
106674.18 0.166548 okt 2016 640,500.00
99395.33 0.14639 nov 2016 678,976.00
6874.55 0.009963 des 2016 690,000.00
17966.68 0.024444 jan 2017 735,020.00
27993.57 0.037658 feb 2017 743,360.00
82409.73 0.119684 mar 2017 688,560.00
31069.26 0.044046 apr 2017 705,380.00
45680.73 0.062235 mei 2017 734,000.00
jun 2017 690,560.00
684389.01 1.03321 total
62217.1825 mad
9.393% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jul 2016 768,900.00
12000 0.015367 ags 2016 780,900.00
186080 0.310082 sep 2016 600,100.00
114595.20 0.178915 okt 2016 640,500.00
99465.31 0.146493 nov 2016 678,976.00
5329.53 0.007724 des 2016 690,000.00
17087.48 0.023248 jan 2017 735,020.00
28176.92 0.037905 feb 2017 743,360.00
82336.57 0.119578 mar 2017 688,560.00
31146.90 0.044156 apr 2017 705,380.00
45709.58 0.062275 mei 2017 734,000.00
52692.02 0.076303 jun 2017 690,560.00
jul 2017 700,900.00
674619.51 1.022045 total
61329.0468 mad
9.291% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 ags 2016 780,900.00
180800 0.301283 sep 2016 600,100.00
119952 0.187279 okt 2016 640,500.00
101409.12 0.149356 nov 2016 678,976.00
5346.71 0.007749 des 2016 690,000.00
16708.33 0.022732 jan 2017 735,020.00
28392.68 0.038195 feb 2017 743,360.00
82381.56 0.119643 mar 2017 688,560.00
31164.86 0.044182 apr 2017 705,380.00
45728.63 0.062301 mei 2017 734,000.00
52684.94 0.076293 jun 2017 690,560.00
15130.71 0.021588 jul 2017 700,900.00
ags 2017 745,480.00
679699.54 1.0306 total
61790.8671 mad
9.369% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 sep 2016 600,100.00
40400 0.063076 okt 2016 640,500.00
20700 0.030487 nov 2016 678,976.00
23940.00 0.034696 des 2016 690,000.00
16449.60 0.02238 jan 2017 735,020.00
22680.22 0.03051 feb 2017 743,360.00
79130.85 0.114922 mar 2017 688,560.00
31842.77 0.045143 apr 2017 705,380.00
45458.12 0.061932 mei 2017 734,000.00
52972.01 0.076709 jun 2017 690,560.00
15024.05 0.021435 jul 2017 700,900.00
53247.87 0.071428 ags 2017 745,480.00
sep 2017 718,000.00
401845.49 0.572717 total
36531.4083 mad
5.207% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 okt 2016 640,500.00
38476 0.056668 nov 2016 678,976.00
5905.44 0.008559 des 2016 690,000.00
22993.75 0.031283 jan 2017 735,020.00
22622.41 0.030433 feb 2017 743,360.00
80407.30 0.116776 mar 2017 688,560.00
31116.39 0.044113 apr 2017 705,380.00
45306.64 0.061726 mei 2017 734,000.00
52911.56 0.076621 jun 2017 690,560.00
15088.20 0.021527 jul 2017 700,900.00
53271.70 0.07146 ags 2017 745,480.00
45245.49 0.063016 sep 2017 718,000.00
okt 2017 748,560.00
413344.89 0.58218 total
37576.8078 mad
5.293% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 nov 2016 678,976.00
11024 0.015977 des 2016 690,000.00
40169.44 0.054651 jan 2017 735,020.00
16389.91 0.022048 feb 2017 743,360.00
80352.24 0.116696 mar 2017 688,560.00
29900.73 0.04239 apr 2017 705,380.00
44614.86 0.060783 mei 2017 734,000.00
53055.83 0.07683 jun 2017 690,560.00
15145.77 0.021609 jul 2017 700,900.00
53332.79 0.071542 ags 2017 745,480.00
45222.79 0.062984 sep 2017 718,000.00
22048.68 0.029455 okt 2017 748,560.00
nov 2017 718,280.00
411257.03 0.574965 total
37387.0029 mad
5.227% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 des 2016 690,000.00
45020 0.06125 jan 2017 735,020.00
11468.8 0.015428 feb 2017 743,360.00
78566.53 0.114103 mar 2017 688,560.00
29916.50 0.042412 apr 2017 705,380.00
44266.55 0.060309 mei 2017 734,000.00
53254.03 0.077117 jun 2017 690,560.00
15104.43 0.02155 jul 2017 700,900.00
53349.29 0.071564 ags 2017 745,480.00
45205.28 0.06296 sep 2017 718,000.00
22055.18 0.029463 okt 2017 748,560.00
39448.04 0.05492 nov 2017 718,280.00
des 2017 708,720.00
437654.64 0.611076 total
39786.7857 mad
5.555% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jan 2017 735,020.00
8340 0.011219 feb 2017 743,360.00
58469.6 0.084916 mar 2017 688,560.00
37209.02 0.05275 apr 2017 705,380.00
44330.97 0.060396 mei 2017 734,000.00
54676.46 0.079177 jun 2017 690,560.00
14294.99 0.020395 jul 2017 700,900.00
53180.49 0.071337 ags 2017 745,480.00
45137.93 0.062866 sep 2017 718,000.00
22126.66 0.029559 okt 2017 748,560.00
39421.48 0.054883 nov 2017 718,280.00
5781.36 0.008157 des 2017 708,720.00
jan 2018 666,776.00
382968.97 0.535657 total
34815.3606 mad
4.870% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 feb 2017 743,360.00
54800 0.079586 mar 2017 688,560.00
40932 0.058028 apr 2017 705,380.00
45681.92 0.062237 mei 2017 734,000.00
54664.52 0.07916 jun 2017 690,560.00
14031.48 0.020019 jul 2017 700,900.00
53030.53 0.071136 ags 2017 745,480.00
45169.20 0.06291 sep 2017 718,000.00
22139.14 0.029576 okt 2017 748,560.00
39408.24 0.054865 nov 2017 718,280.00
5776.44 0.008151 des 2017 708,720.00
27737.16 0.041599 jan 2018 666,776.00
feb 2018 700,079.00
403370.65 0.567266 total
36670.0587 mad
5.157% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mar 2017 688,560.00
16820 0.023845 apr 2017 705,380.00
21219.2 0.028909 mei 2017 734,000.00
63541.25 0.092014 jun 2017 690,560.00
13953.06 0.019907 jul 2017 700,900.00
54761.96 0.073459 ags 2017 745,480.00
44183.91 0.061537 sep 2017 718,000.00
22344.62 0.02985 okt 2017 748,560.00
39490.23 0.054979 nov 2017 718,280.00
5863.45 0.008273 des 2017 708,720.00
27769.49 0.041647 jan 2018 666,776.00
60868.78 0.086946 feb 2018 700,079.00
mar 2018 790,646.00
370815.95 0.521367 total
33710.5411 mad
4.740% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 apr 2017 705,380.00
28620 0.038992 mei 2017 734,000.00
56032.8 0.081141 jun 2017 690,560.00
16677.63 0.023795 jul 2017 700,900.00
54786.03 0.073491 ags 2017 745,480.00
44715.35 0.062278 sep 2017 718,000.00
22042.20 0.029446 okt 2017 748,560.00
39553.30 0.055067 nov 2017 718,280.00
5838.29 0.008238 des 2017 708,720.00
27742.78 0.041607 jan 2018 666,776.00
60878.70 0.08696 feb 2018 700,079.00
96904.63 0.122564 mar 2018 790,646.00
apr 2018 654,346.00
453791.71 0.623578 total
41253.7916 mad
5.669% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mei 2017 734,000.00
43440 0.062905 jun 2017 690,560.00
29453.6 0.042023 jul 2017 700,900.00
59422.02 0.07971 ags 2017 745,480.00
44674.39 0.062221 sep 2017 718,000.00
21137.94 0.028238 okt 2017 748,560.00
40067.88 0.055783 nov 2017 718,280.00
5945.60 0.008389 des 2017 708,720.00
27699.96 0.041543 jan 2018 666,776.00
60924.14 0.087025 feb 2018 700,079.00
96921.51 0.122585 mar 2018 790,646.00
184775.78 0.282382 apr 2018 654,346.00
may 2018 734,778.00
614462.82 0.872804 total
55860.256 mad
7.935% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jun 2017 690,560.00
10340 0.014752 jul 2017 700,900.00
40030.4 0.053697 ags 2017 745,480.00
51710.98 0.072021 sep 2017 718,000.00
21075.77 0.028155 okt 2017 748,560.00
38695.37 0.053872 nov 2017 718,280.00
5164.56 0.007287 des 2017 708,720.00
27537.08 0.041299 jan 2018 666,776.00
60859.15 0.086932 feb 2018 700,079.00
96852.54 0.122498 mar 2018 790,646.00
184801.41 0.282422 apr 2018 654,346.00
93872.70 0.127757 may 2018 734,778.00
jun 2018 687,656.00
630939.96 0.890692 total
57358.1784 mad
8.097% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jul 2017 700,900.00
44580 0.0598 ags 2017 745,480.00
47095.2 0.065592 sep 2017 718,000.00
22750.69 0.030393 okt 2017 748,560.00
38680.57 0.053852 nov 2017 718,280.00
5491.26 0.007748 des 2017 708,720.00
27722.99 0.041578 jan 2018 666,776.00
60820.38 0.086876 feb 2018 700,079.00
96868.01 0.122518 mar 2018 790,646.00
184784.99 0.282396 apr 2018 654,346.00
93878.80 0.127765 may 2018 734,778.00
38024.87 0.055296 jun 2018 687,656.00
jul 2018 635,678.00
660697.76 0.933814 total
60063.4332 mad
8.489% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 ags 2017 745,480.00
27480 0.038273 sep 2017 718,000.00
42651.2 0.056978 okt 2017 748,560.00
31459.33 0.043798 nov 2017 718,280.00
5427.46 0.007658 des 2017 708,720.00
29131.51 0.04369 jan 2018 666,776.00
60018.84 0.085732 feb 2018 700,079.00
96700.86 0.122306 mar 2018 790,646.00
184718.29 0.282295 apr 2018 654,346.00
93949.59 0.127861 may 2018 734,778.00
37998.57 0.055258 jun 2018 687,656.00
44925.12 0.070673 jul 2018 635,678.00
aug 2018 654,788.00
654460.77 0.934521 total
59496.4341 mad
8.496% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 sep 2017 718,000.00
30560 0.040825 okt 2017 748,560.00
43726.4 0.060877 nov 2017 718,280.00
9878.78 0.013939 des 2017 708,720.00
29170.84 0.043749 jan 2018 666,776.00
60887.09 0.086972 feb 2018 700,079.00
97194.94 0.122931 mar 2018 790,646.00
184615.25 0.282137 apr 2018 654,346.00
93908.47 0.127805 may 2018 734,778.00
38042.21 0.055322 jun 2018 687,656.00
44941.33 0.070698 jul 2018 635,678.00
53529.30 0.081751 aug 2018 654,788.00
sep 2018 690,807.00
686454.60 0.987005 total
62404.9638 mad
8.973% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 sep 2017 718,000.00
30560 0.040825 okt 2017 748,560.00
43726.4 0.060877 nov 2017 718,280.00
9878.78 0.013939 des 2017 708,720.00
29170.84 0.043749 jan 2018 666,776.00
60887.09 0.086972 feb 2018 700,079.00
97194.94 0.122931 mar 2018 790,646.00
184615.25 0.282137 apr 2018 654,346.00
93908.47 0.127805 may 2018 734,778.00
38042.21 0.055322 jun 2018 687,656.00
44941.33 0.070698 jul 2018 635,678.00
53529.30 0.081751 aug 2018 654,788.00
sep 2018 690,807.00
686454.60 0.987005 total
62404.9638 mad
8.973% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 okt 2017 748,560.00
30280 0.042156 nov 2017 718,280.00
3763.2 0.00531 des 2017 708,720.00
24220.61 0.036325 jan 2018 666,776.00
60930.82 0.087034 feb 2018 700,079.00
96229.38 0.12171 mar 2018 790,646.00
185164.71 0.282977 apr 2018 654,346.00
93793.89 0.127649 may 2018 734,778.00
37996.48 0.055255 jun 2018 687,656.00
44892.81 0.070622 jul 2018 635,678.00
53547.32 0.081778 aug 2018 654,788.00
55874.06 0.080882 sep 2018 690,807.00
oct 2018 656,556.00
686693.28 0.991699 total
62426.6619 mad
9.015% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 nov 2017 718,280.00
9560 0.013489 des 2017 708,720.00
37737.6 0.056597 jan 2018 666,776.00
56025.94 0.080028 feb 2018 700,079.00
96186.05 0.121655 mar 2018 790,646.00
184208.00 0.281515 apr 2018 654,346.00
94338.31 0.12839 may 2018 734,778.00
37882.95 0.05509 jun 2018 687,656.00
44938.11 0.070693 jul 2018 635,678.00
53499.25 0.081705 aug 2018 654,788.00
55856.20 0.080856 sep 2018 690,807.00
49690.38 0.075683 oct 2018 656,556.00
nov 2018 676,655.00
719922.79 1.045702 total
65447.526 mad
9.506% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 des 2017 708,720.00
41944 0.062906 jan 2018 666,776.00
51758.36 0.073932 feb 2018 700,079.00
94637.48 0.119696 mar 2018 790,646.00
184221.68 0.281536 apr 2018 654,346.00
94640.36 0.128801 may 2018 734,778.00
37711.06 0.05484 jun 2018 687,656.00
44902.27 0.070637 jul 2018 635,678.00
53484.94 0.081683 aug 2018 654,788.00
55841.02 0.080834 sep 2018 690,807.00
49696.02 0.075692 oct 2018 656,556.00
15352.03 0.022688 nov 2018 676,655.00
dec 2018 738,900.00
724189.22 1.053245 total
65835.3837 mad
9.575% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jan 2018 666,776.00
33303 0.04757 feb 2018 700,079.00
75913.68 0.096015 mar 2018 790,646.00
191015.94 0.291919 apr 2018 654,346.00
94580.34 0.12872 may 2018 734,778.00
36385.82 0.052913 jun 2018 687,656.00
44148.13 0.06945 jul 2018 635,678.00
53642.21 0.081923 aug 2018 654,788.00
55778.26 0.080744 sep 2018 690,807.00
49762.61 0.075793 oct 2018 656,556.00
15327.28 0.022652 nov 2018 676,655.00
60681.80 0.082125 dec 2018 738,900.00
jan 2019
710539.08 1.029823 total
64594.4622 mad
9.362% mape
level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
706,480.00 706480 0 706480 0 0
690,876.00 692436.40 -12639.24 706480 -15604 15604 0.022586
709,888.00 706878.92 11734.34 679797.16 30090.84 30090.84 0.042388
687,000.00 690161.33 -13872.40 718613.26 -31613.2564 31613.26 0.046016
698,700.00 696458.89 4280.57 676288.93 22411.0716 22411.07 0.032075
720,000.00 718073.95 19881.61 700739.46 19260.5364 19260.54 0.026751
768,900.00 765805.56 44946.61 737955.55 30944.4484 30944.45 0.040245
780,900.00 783885.22 20766.36 810752.16 -29852.1636 29852.16 0.038228
600,100.00 620555.16 -144920.42 804651.57 -204551.572 204551.57 0.340862
640,500.00 624013.47 -11379.56 475634.74 164865.26 164865.26 0.257401
678,976.00 672341.79 42357.53 612633.92 66342.0827 66342.08 0.097709
690,000.00 692469.93 22351.08 714699.32 -24699.322 24699.32 0.035796
735,020.00 714821.01 20198.9883
total 640234.55 0.980058
mad 58203.1413
mape 8.910%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690876 690876 0 690876 0 0
709888 707986.80 15399.72 690876 19012 19012 0.026782
687000 690638.65 -14073.36 723386.52 -36386.52 36386.52 0.052964
698700 696486.53 3855.75 676565.29 22134.7092 22134.71 0.03168
720000 718034.23 19778.50 700342.28 19657.7177 19657.72 0.027302
768900 765791.27 44959.19 737812.73 31087.2672 31087.27 0.040431
780900 783885.05 20780.31 810750.46 -29850.4643 29850.46 0.038226
600100 620556.54 -144917.63 804665.36 -204565.361 204565.36 0.340885
640500 624013.89 -11380.14 475638.91 164861.092 164861.09 0.257394
678976 672341.77 42357.08 612633.75 66342.2527 66342.25 0.097709
690000 692469.89 22351.01 714698.86 -24698.8559 24698.86 0.035795
735020 733000.09 38712.28 714820.89 20199.1065 20199.11 0.027481
743360 771712.37 -28352.3735
total 638795.35 0.97665
mad 58072.3042
mape 8.879%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


709888 709888 0 709888 0 0
687000 689288.80 -18539.28 709888 -22888 22888 0.033316
698700 695904.95 4100.61 670749.52 27950.48 27950.48 0.040004
720000 718000.56 20296.10 700005.56 19994.4392 19994.44 0.02777
768900 765839.67 45084.81 738296.66 30603.3394 30603.34 0.039801
780900 783902.45 20764.98 810924.48 -30024.4755 30024.48 0.038449
600100 620556.74 -144934.64 804667.43 -204567.432 204567.43 0.340889
640500 624012.21 -11383.54 475622.11 164877.892 164877.89 0.257421
678976 672341.27 42357.80 612628.67 66347.332 66347.33 0.097717
690000 692469.91 22351.56 714699.06 -24699.063 24699.06 0.035796
735020 733000.15 38712.37 714821.46 20198.5385 20198.54 0.02748
743360 746195.25 15746.83 771712.52 -28352.5175 28352.52 0.038141
688560 761942.08 -73382.0839
total 640503.51 0.976783
mad 58227.5917
mape 8.880%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


687000 687000 0 687000 0 0
698700 697530.00 9477.00 687000 11700 11700 0.016745
720000 718700.70 20001.33 707007 12993 12993 0.018046
768900 765880.20 44461.69 738702.03 30197.97 30197.97 0.039274
780900 783844.19 20613.76 810341.89 -29441.8887 29441.89 0.037703
600100 620535.79 -144916.18 804457.94 -204357.945 204357.94 0.34054
640500 624011.96 -11363.07 475619.62 164880.385 164880.38 0.257424
678976 672343.29 42361.89 612648.89 66327.1061 66327.11 0.097687
690000 692470.52 22350.69 714705.18 -24705.1777 24705.18 0.035805
735020 733000.12 38711.71 714821.21 20198.7879 20198.79 0.027481
743360 746195.18 15746.73 771711.83 -28351.8338 28351.83 0.03814
688560 695898.19 -43692.62 761941.91 -73381.9106 73381.91 0.106573
705380 652205.57 53174.4293
total 666536.00 1.015418
mad 60594.1822
mape 9.231%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


698700 698700 0 698700 0 0
720000 717870.00 17253.00 698700 21300 21300 0.029583
768900 765522.30 44612.37 735123 33777 33777 0.043929
780900 783823.47 20932.29 810134.67 -29234.67 29234.67 0.037437
600100 620565.58 -144838.87 804755.75 -204655.754 204655.75 0.341036
640500 624022.67 -11372.50 475726.70 164773.298 164773.30 0.257257
678976 672343.42 42351.42 612650.17 66325.8319 66325.83 0.097685
690000 692469.48 22348.60 714694.84 -24694.8386 24694.84 0.03579
735020 732999.81 38712.15 714818.09 20201.9136 20201.91 0.027485
743360 746195.20 15747.06 771711.96 -28351.9612 28351.96 0.03814
688560 695898.23 -43692.57 761942.26 -73382.2601 73382.26 0.106574
705380 700062.57 -621.35 652205.66 53174.3407 53174.34 0.075384
734000 699441.22 34558.7848
total 719871.87 1.0903
mad 65442.8972
mape 9.912%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


720000 720000 0 720000 0 0
768900 764010.00 39609.00 720000 48900 48900 0.063597
780900 783171.90 21206.61 803619 -22719 22719 0.029093
600100 620527.85 -144258.98 804378.51 -204278.51 204278.51 0.340407
640500 624076.89 -11231.77 476268.87 164231.132 164231.13 0.256411
678976 672362.91 42334.25 612845.12 66130.8793 66130.88 0.097398
690000 692469.72 22329.55 714697.16 -24697.1582 24697.16 0.035793
735020 732997.93 38708.34 714799.26 20220.7362 20220.74 0.02751
743360 746194.63 15747.87 771706.27 -28346.2707 28346.27 0.038133
688560 695898.25 -43691.95 761942.49 -73382.4921 73382.49 0.106574
705380 700062.63 -621.25 652206.30 53173.7044 53173.70 0.075383
734000 730544.14 27371.23 699441.38 34558.6235 34558.62 0.047083
690560 757915.37 -67355.3696
total 740638.51 1.117383
mad 67330.7733
mape 10.158%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


768900 768900 0 768900 0 0
780900 779700.00 9720.00 768900 12000 12000 0.015367
600100 619032.00 -143629.20 789420 -189320 189320 0.315481
640500 623990.28 -9900.47 475402.80 165097.2 165097.20 0.257763
678976 672487.38 42657.34 614089.81 64886.188 64886.19 0.095565
690000 692514.47 22290.12 715144.73 -25144.7255 25144.73 0.036442
735020 732998.46 38664.60 714804.59 20215.4108 20215.41 0.027503
743360 746190.31 15739.12 771663.06 -28303.0583 28303.06 0.038074
688560 695896.94 -43690.11 761929.43 -73369.428 73369.43 0.106555
705380 700062.68 -619.85 652206.83 53173.1717 53173.17 0.075382
734000 730544.28 27371.46 699442.84 34557.1626 34557.16 0.047081
690560 697295.57 -27186.69 757915.74 -67355.74 67355.74 0.097538
700900 670108.88 30791.1191
total 733422.08 1.11275
mad 66674.735
mape 10.116%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


780900 780900 0 780900 0 0
600100 618180.00 -146448.00 780900 -180800 180800 0.301283
640500 623623.20 -9745.92 471732 168768 168768 0.263494
678976 672466.13 42984.04 613877.28 65098.72 65098.72 0.095878
690000 692545.02 22369.40 715450.17 -25450.1712 25450.17 0.036884
735020 733009.44 38654.92 714914.42 20105.5784 20105.58 0.027354
743360 746190.44 15728.39 771664.37 -28304.3652 28304.37 0.038076
688560 695895.88 -43692.26 761918.82 -73358.8237 73358.82 0.106539
705380 700062.36 -619.39 652203.62 53176.3776 53176.38 0.075387
734000 730544.30 27371.80 699442.97 34557.0319 34557.03 0.04708
690560 697295.61 -27186.64 757916.10 -67356.0985 67356.10 0.097538
700900 697820.90 -2245.91 670108.97 30791.0282 30791.03 0.043931
745480 695574.99 49905.008
total 747766.19 1.133445
mad 67978.745
mape 10.304%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


600100 600100 0 600100 0 0
640500 636460.00 32724.00 600100 40400 40400 0.063076
678976 677996.80 40655.52 669184 9792 9792 0.014422
690000 692865.23 17447.14 718652.32 -28652.32 28652.32 0.041525
735020 732549.24 37460.32 710312.37 24707.6272 24707.63 0.033615
743360 746024.96 15874.18 770009.56 -26649.5561 26649.56 0.03585
688560 695893.91 -43530.52 761899.13 -73339.134 73339.13 0.106511
705380 700078.34 -587.07 652363.39 53016.6068 53016.61 0.07516
734000 730549.13 27365.00 699491.27 34508.7294 34508.73 0.047015
690560 697295.41 -27191.84 757914.13 -67354.1292 67354.13 0.097536
700900 697820.36 -2246.73 670103.57 30796.4296 30796.43 0.043938
745480 740489.36 38177.43 695573.62 49906.3775 49906.38 0.066945
718000 778666.79 -60666.7935
total 439122.91 0.625593
mad 39920.2645
mape 5.687%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


640500 640500 0 640500 0 0
678976 675128.40 31165.56 640500 38476 38476 0.056668
690000 691629.40 17967.45 706293.96 -16293.96 16293.96 0.023614
735020 732477.68 38560.21 709596.85 25423.1516 25423.15 0.034588
743360 746127.79 16141.11 771037.89 -27677.89 27677.89 0.037233
688560 695930.89 -43563.10 762268.90 -73708.9033 73708.90 0.107048
705380 700078.78 -623.21 652367.79 53012.2071 53012.21 0.075154
734000 730545.56 27357.78 699455.57 34544.4304 34544.43 0.047063
690560 697294.33 -27190.32 757903.34 -67343.3359 67343.34 0.09752
700900 697820.40 -2245.57 670104.01 30795.9896 30795.99 0.043938
745480 740489.48 38177.62 695574.83 49905.1706 49905.17 0.066944
718000 724066.71 -10962.73 778667.10 -60667.0995 60667.10 0.084495
748560 713103.98 35456.0241
total 477848.14 0.674265
mad 43440.7398
mape 6.130%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


678976 678976 0 678976 0 0
690000 688897.60 8929.44 678976 11024 11024 0.015977
735020 731300.70 39055.74 697827.04 37192.96 37192.96 0.050601
743360 746059.64 17188.62 770356.44 -26996.4416 26996.44 0.036317
688560 696028.83 -43308.87 763248.26 -74688.2641 74688.26 0.10847
705380 700114.00 -654.24 652719.95 52660.0476 52660.05 0.074655
734000 730545.98 27323.36 699459.76 34540.2402 34540.24 0.047058
690560 697290.93 -27197.20 757869.34 -67309.3351 67309.34 0.097471
700900 697819.37 -2244.12 670093.73 30806.2688 30806.27 0.043952
745480 740489.52 38178.72 695575.25 49904.7515 49904.75 0.066943
718000 724066.82 -10962.56 778668.25 -60668.249 60668.25 0.084496
748560 745014.43 17756.59 713104.27 35455.7327 35455.73 0.047365
718280 762771.01 -44491.0126
total 481246.29 0.673305
mad 43749.6628
mape 6.121%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690000 690000 0 690000 0 0
735020 730518.00 36466.20 690000 45020 45020 0.06125
743360 745722.42 17330.60 766984.2 -23624.2 23624.2 0.03178
688560 696009.30 -43008.75 763053.02 -74493.018 74493.02 0.108187
705380 700142.06 -581.40 653000.56 52379.4448 52379.44 0.074257
734000 730556.07 27314.47 699560.66 34439.3408 34439.34 0.04692
690560 697291.05 -27207.06 757870.54 -67310.5357 67310.54 0.097472
700900 697818.40 -2246.10 670083.99 30816.0106 30816.01 0.043966
745480 740489.23 38179.14 695572.30 49907.6966 49907.70 0.066947
718000 724066.84 -10962.24 778668.37 -60668.369 60668.37 0.084496
748560 745014.46 17756.64 713104.60 35455.4033 35455.40 0.047365
718280 722729.11 -18281.15 762771.10 -44491.0961 44491.10 0.061941
708720 704447.96 4272.04179
total 518605.11 0.724582
mad 47145.9195
mape 6.587%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


735020 735020 0 735020 0 0
743360 742526.00 6755.40 735020 8340 8340 0.011219
688560 694632.14 -42428.93 749281.4 -60721.4 60721.4 0.088186
705380 700062.32 644.27 652203.21 53176.794 53176.79 0.075387
734000 730670.66 27611.93 700706.59 33293.4103 33293.41 0.045359
690560 697332.26 -27243.37 758282.59 -67722.5904 67722.59 0.098069
700900 697818.89 -2286.37 670088.89 30811.1078 30811.11 0.043959
745480 740485.25 38171.09 695532.52 49947.4803 49947.48 0.067
718000 724065.63 -10960.55 778656.34 -60656.3415 60656.34 0.08448
748560 745014.51 17757.93 713105.09 35454.9129 35454.91 0.047364
718280 722729.24 -18280.94 762772.44 -44492.4411 44492.44 0.061943
708720 708292.83 -14820.87 704448.30 4271.70079 4271.70 0.006027
666776 693471.96 -26695.9627
total 448888.18 0.628995
mad 40808.0163
mape 5.718%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


743360 743360 0 743360 0 0
688560 694040.00 -44388.00 743360 -54800 54800 0.079586
705380 699807.20 751.68 649652 55728 55728 0.079004
734000 730655.89 27838.99 700558.88 33441.12 33441.12 0.04556
690560 697353.49 -27188.26 758494.88 -67934.8752 67934.88 0.098376
700900 697826.52 -2293.09 670165.23 30734.7742 30734.77 0.04385
745480 740485.34 38163.63 695533.43 49946.572 49946.57 0.066999
718000 724064.90 -10962.04 778648.97 -60648.9715 60648.97 0.084469
748560 745014.29 17758.25 713102.86 35457.1411 35457.14 0.047367
718280 722729.25 -18280.70 762772.53 -44492.5319 44492.53 0.061943
708720 708292.85 -14820.83 704448.55 4271.45163 4271.45 0.006027
666776 669445.60 -36444.61 693472.03 -26696.0258 26696.03 0.040037
700079 633000.99 67078.0073
total 464151.46 0.653221
mad 42195.5876
mape 5.938%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


688560 688560 0 688560 0 0
705380 703698.00 13624.20 688560 16820 16820 0.023845
734000 732332.22 27133.22 717322.2 16677.8 16677.8 0.022722
690560 697450.54 -28680.19 759465.44 -68905.438 68905.44 0.099782
700900 697687.04 -2655.18 668770.36 32129.643 32129.64 0.045841
745480 740435.19 38207.82 695031.86 50448.1403 50448.14 0.067672
718000 724064.30 -10913.02 778643.00 -60643.0036 60643.00 0.084461
748560 745019.13 17768.04 713151.29 35408.7149 35408.71 0.047302
718280 722730.72 -18282.77 762787.17 -44507.1723 44507.17 0.061964
708720 708292.80 -14822.41 704447.95 4272.04854 4272.05 0.006028
666776 669445.44 -36444.86 693470.39 -26694.3887 26694.39 0.040035
700079 693371.16 17888.66 633000.58 67078.4224 67078.42 0.095816
790646 711259.82 79386.1814
total 423584.77 0.595467
mad 38507.7065
mape 5.413%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


705380 705380 0 705380 0 0
734000 731138.00 23182.20 705380 28620 28620 0.038992
690560 696936.02 -28463.56 754320.2 -63760.2 63760.2 0.092331
700900 697657.25 -2197.25 668472.46 32427.542 32427.54 0.046266
745480 740478.00 38318.95 695459.99 50020.0072 50020.01 0.067098
718000 724079.70 -10926.58 778796.95 -60796.9521 60796.95 0.084675
748560 745019.31 17753.00 713153.12 35406.8832 35406.88 0.0473
718280 722729.23 -18285.77 762772.31 -44492.3087 44492.31 0.061943
708720 708292.35 -14821.77 704443.46 4276.54217 4276.54 0.006034
666776 669445.46 -36444.38 693470.57 -26694.5719 26694.57 0.040035
700079 693371.21 17888.74 633001.08 67077.9199 67077.92 0.095815
790646 782707.39 82191.44 711259.95 79386.054 79386.05 0.100407
654346 864898.84 -210552.836
total 492958.98 0.680895
mad 44814.4528
mape 6.190%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


734000 734000 0 734000 0 0
690560 694904.00 -35186.40 734000 -43440 43440 0.062905
700900 696781.76 -1828.66 659717.6 41182.4 41182.4 0.058756
745480 740427.31 39098.13 694953.10 50526.896 50526.90 0.067778
718000 724152.54 -10737.48 779525.44 -61525.4402 61525.44 0.08569
748560 745045.51 17729.92 713415.07 35144.9328 35144.93 0.04695
718280 722729.54 -18311.38 762775.43 -44495.4255 44495.43 0.061947
708720 708289.82 -14826.89 704418.17 4301.83333 4301.83 0.00607
666776 669444.69 -36443.30 693462.93 -26686.9258 26686.93 0.040024
700079 693371.24 17889.56 633001.39 67077.6082 67077.61 0.095814
790646 782707.48 82191.57 711260.80 79385.199 79385.20 0.100405
654346 675401.31 -88356.40 864899.05 -210553.053 210553.05 0.321776
734778 587044.91 147733.095
total 664319.71 0.948117
mad 60392.7013
mape 8.619%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690560 690560 0 690560 0 0
700900 699866.00 8375.40 690560 10340 10340 0.014752
745480 741756.14 38538.67 708241.4 37238.6 37238.6 0.049953
718000 724229.48 -11920.13 780294.81 -62294.806 62294.81 0.086762
748560 744934.94 17442.90 712309.35 36250.6463 36250.65 0.048427
718280 722689.78 -18276.35 762377.83 -44097.832 44097.83 0.061394
708720 708289.34 -14788.03 704413.44 4306.5641 4306.56 0.006077
666776 669448.53 -36435.53 693501.31 -26725.3132 26725.31 0.040081
700079 693372.40 17887.93 633013.00 67066.0028 67066.00 0.095798
790646 782707.43 82190.32 711260.33 79385.6721 79385.67 0.100406
654346 675401.18 -88356.60 864897.76 -210551.755 210551.76 0.321774
734778 720004.66 31307.47 587044.58 147733.424 147733.42 0.201059
687656 751312.13 -63656.1316
total 725990.62 1.026482
mad 65999.1469
mape 9.332%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


700900 700900 0 700900 0 0
745480 741022.00 36109.80 700900 44580 44580 0.0598
718000 723913.18 -11786.96 777131.8 -59131.8 59131.8 0.082356
748560 744916.62 17724.40 712126.22 36433.778 36433.78 0.048672
718280 722716.10 -18208.03 762641.02 -44361.0244 44361.02 0.06176
708720 708298.81 -14796.37 704508.07 4211.92513 4211.93 0.005943
666776 669448.64 -36444.78 693502.44 -26726.4393 26726.44 0.040083
700079 693371.49 17886.08 633003.86 67075.1401 67075.14 0.095811
790646 782707.16 82190.71 711257.57 79388.4346 79388.43 0.10041
654346 675401.19 -88356.30 864897.87 -210551.868 210551.87 0.321775
734778 720004.69 31307.52 587044.89 147733.115 147733.11 0.201058
687656 694021.62 -20254.01 751312.21 -63656.2099 63656.21 0.09257
635678 673767.61 -38089.6124
total 783849.73 1.110238
mad 71259.0667
mape 10.093%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


745480 745480 0 745480 0 0
718000 720748.00 -22258.80 745480 -27480 27480 0.038273
748560 743552.92 18298.55 698489.2 50070.8 50070.8 0.066889
718280 722637.15 -16994.34 761851.47 -43571.468 43571.47 0.060661
708720 708412.28 -14501.81 705642.81 3077.19428 3077.19 0.004342
666776 669489.45 -36480.73 693910.47 -27134.4669 27134.47 0.040695
700079 693371.97 17846.20 633008.71 67070.2852 67070.29 0.095804
790646 782703.22 82182.74 711218.17 79427.8294 79427.83 0.100459
654346 675400.00 -88354.63 864885.96 -210539.958 210539.96 0.321756
734778 720004.74 31308.80 587045.37 147732.629 147732.63 0.201058
687656 694021.75 -20253.80 751313.54 -63657.5417 63657.54 0.092572
635678 639487.00 -51106.66 673767.95 -38089.95 38089.95 0.05992
654788 588380.33 66407.6687
total 757852.12 1.082429
mad 68895.6475
mape 9.840%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718000 718000 0 718000 0 0
748560 745504.00 24753.60 718000 30560 30560 0.040825
718280 723477.76 -17348.26 770257.6 -51977.6 51977.6 0.072364
708720 708460.95 -15249.95 706129.50 2590.496 2590.50 0.003655
666776 669419.50 -36662.30 693211.00 -26434.9962 26435.00 0.039646
700079 693346.82 17868.36 632757.20 67321.8015 67321.80 0.096163
790646 782702.92 82207.32 711215.18 79430.8221 79430.82 0.100463
654346 675402.42 -88349.71 864910.24 -210564.242 210564.24 0.321793
734778 720005.47 31307.77 587052.71 147725.288 147725.29 0.201048
687656 694021.72 -20254.60 751313.24 -63657.2424 63657.24 0.092571
635678 639486.91 -51106.79 673767.13 -38089.1291 38089.13 0.059919
654788 648147.21 2683.59 588380.12 66407.8768 66407.88 0.101419
690807 650830.80 39976.1972
total 784759.49 1.129867
mad 71341.7721
mape 10.272%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718000 718000 0 718000 0 0
748560 745504.00 24753.60 718000 30560 30560 0.040825
718280 723477.76 -17348.26 770257.6 -51977.6 51977.6 0.072364
708720 708460.95 -15249.95 706129.50 2590.496 2590.50 0.003655
666776 669419.50 -36662.30 693211.00 -26434.9962 26435.00 0.039646
700079 693346.82 17868.36 632757.20 67321.8015 67321.80 0.096163
790646 782702.92 82207.32 711215.18 79430.8221 79430.82 0.100463
654346 675402.42 -88349.71 864910.24 -210564.242 210564.24 0.321793
734778 720005.47 31307.77 587052.71 147725.288 147725.29 0.201048
687656 694021.72 -20254.60 751313.24 -63657.2424 63657.24 0.092571
635678 639486.91 -51106.79 673767.13 -38089.1291 38089.13 0.059919
654788 648147.21 2683.59 588380.12 66407.8768 66407.88 0.101419
690807 650830.80 39976.1972
total 784759.49 1.129867
mad 71341.7721
mape 10.272%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


748560 748560 0 748560 0 0
718280 721308.00 -24526.80 748560 -30280 30280 0.042156
708720 707526.12 -14856.37 696781.2 11938.8 11938.8 0.016846
666776 669365.37 -35830.31 692669.75 -25893.748 25893.75 0.038834
700079 693424.61 18070.28 633535.07 66543.9331 66543.93 0.095052
790646 782730.89 82182.68 711494.88 79151.1154 79151.12 0.100109
654346 675402.76 -88377.05 864913.57 -210567.57 210567.57 0.321799
734778 720002.77 31302.31 587025.71 147752.293 147752.29 0.201084
687656 694020.91 -20253.45 751305.08 -63649.078 63649.08 0.092559
635678 639486.95 -51105.91 673767.46 -38089.4619 38089.46 0.059919
654788 648147.30 2683.73 588381.04 66406.9638 66406.96 0.101418
690807 686809.40 35064.26 650831.03 39975.9657 39975.97 0.057869
656556 721873.67 -65317.6663
total 780248.93 1.127645
mad 70931.7208
mape 10.251%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718280 718280 0 718280 0 0
708720 709676.00 -7743.60 718280 -9560 9560 0.013489
666776 670291.64 -36220.28 701932.4 -35156.4 35156.4 0.052726
700079 693478.24 17245.91 634071.36 66007.644 66007.64 0.094286
790646 782653.81 81982.61 710724.14 79921.8568 79921.86 0.101084
654346 675375.04 -88352.63 864636.43 -210290.426 210290.43 0.321375
734778 720002.44 31329.40 587022.41 147755.591 147755.59 0.201089
687656 694023.58 -20248.03 751331.84 -63675.8361 63675.84 0.092598
635678 639487.76 -51107.05 673775.55 -38097.5515 38097.55 0.059932
654788 648147.27 2682.86 588380.71 66407.2937 66407.29 0.101418
690807 686809.31 35064.12 650830.13 39976.8703 39976.87 0.05787
656556 663087.74 -17843.00 721873.44 -65317.437 65317.44 0.099485
676655 645244.74 31410.2562
total 822166.91 1.195352
mad 74742.446
mape 10.867%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


708720 708720 0 708720 0 0
666776 670970.40 -33974.64 708720 -41944 41944 0.062906
700079 693770.68 17122.78 636995.76 63083.24 63083.24 0.090109
790646 782670.75 81722.34 710893.46 79752.5396 79752.54 0.10087
654346 675350.71 -88415.80 864393.09 -210047.088 210047.09 0.321003
734778 719993.69 31337.10 586934.91 147843.091 147843.09 0.201208
687656 694023.48 -20239.48 751330.79 -63674.795 63674.79 0.092597
635678 639488.60 -51105.34 673784.00 -38106 38106.00 0.059945
654788 648147.53 2682.50 588383.26 66404.7396 66404.74 0.101414
690807 686809.30 35063.85 650830.03 39976.9744 39976.97 0.05787
656556 663087.72 -17843.04 721873.15 -65317.1514 65317.15 0.099485
676655 673513.97 7599.32 645244.67 31410.3287 31410.33 0.04642
738900 681113.29 57786.7104
total 847559.95 1.233826
mad 77050.9042
mape 11.217%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


666776 666776 0 666776 0 0
700079 696748.70 26975.43 666776 33303 33303 0.04757
790646 783953.81 81182.14 723724.13 66921.87 66921.87 0.084642
654346 675425.00 -89557.72 865135.96 -210789.958 210789.96 0.322138
734778 719886.93 31059.97 585867.27 148910.725 148910.73 0.202661
687656 693985.09 -20205.66 750946.89 -63290.8939 63290.89 0.092039
635678 639488.14 -51067.82 673779.43 -38101.4318 38101.43 0.059938
654788 648151.23 2690.00 588420.33 66367.6742 66367.67 0.101357
690807 686810.42 35062.27 650841.23 39965.7687 39965.77 0.057854
656556 663087.67 -17844.25 721872.69 -65316.6945 65316.69 0.099484
676655 673513.84 7599.13 645243.42 31411.5817 31411.58 0.046422
738900 733121.30 54406.62 681112.97 57787.0282 57787.03 0.078207
787527.92
total 822166.63 1.192312
mad 74742.4205
mape 10.839%
alpha 0.1
Dengan Data Acuan 6 Bulan

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2016 706,480.00 706,480.00 706480 0
feb 2016 690,876.00 690,876.00 704919.60 -156.04
mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00 705276.00 -104.80
1 apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 703354.09 -286.51
mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 702630.82 -330.18
jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 704070.57 -153.19
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


feb 2016 690,876.00 690,876.00 690876 0
mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00 692777.20 190.12
apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 692370.59 130.45
2 mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 693120.93 192.44
jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 695982.03 459.30
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 703687.20 1183.89
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00 709888 0
apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 707599.20 -228.88
mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 706503.29 -315.58
3 jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 707568.93 -177.46
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 713542.33 437.63
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 720671.96 1106.83
sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 687000 0
mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 688170.00 117.00
jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 691458.30 434.13
4 jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 699593.19 1204.21
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 708807.65 2005.23
sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00 699741.60 898.10
okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 698700 0
jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 700830.00 213.00
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 707828.70 891.57
5 ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 715938.24 1613.37
sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00 705806.45 438.85
okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00 699670.77 -218.60
nov 2016 678,976.00 678,976.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 720000 0
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 724890.00 489.00
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 730931.10 1044.21
6 sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00 718787.78 -274.54
okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00 710711.91 -1054.68
nov 2016 678,976.00 678,976.00 706589.11 -1361.49
des 2016 690,000.00 690,000.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 768900 0
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 770100.00 120.00
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 753208.00 -1581.20
7 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 740514.12 -2692.47
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 731937.09 -3280.92
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 724790.55 -3667.49
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780900 0
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 762820.00 -1808.00
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 748960.80 -3013.12
8 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 739250.51 -3682.84
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 731010.91 -4138.51
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 727687.15 -4057.04
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 600100 0
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 604140.00 404.00
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 611987.20 1148.32
9 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 620821.97 1916.96
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 633967.04 3039.78
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 647642.13 4103.31
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 640500 0
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 644347.60 384.76
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 649259.12 837.44
`10 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 658588.90 1686.67
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 668584.02 2517.52
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 672847.38 2692.10
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 678976 0
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 680078.40 110.24
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 685671.78 658.55
11 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 692033.30 1228.85
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 692791.93 1181.83
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 695114.38 1295.89
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690000 0
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 694502.00 450.20
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 699792.98 934.28
12 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 699510.53 812.61
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700828.82 863.17
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 704922.80 1186.25
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 735020 0
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 735854.00 83.40
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 731199.66 -390.37
13 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 728266.36 -644.67
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 728259.52 -580.88
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 723966.77 -952.07
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 743360 0
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 737880.00 -548.00
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 734136.80 -867.52
14 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 733342.35 -860.21
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 728289.93 -1279.43
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 724399.44 -1540.54
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 688560 0
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 690242.00 168.20
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 694769.18 604.10
15 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 694891.95 555.97
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 695993.12 610.49
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 701491.25 1099.25
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 705380 0
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 708242.00 286.20
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 706731.38 106.52
16 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 706244.11 47.14
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 710210.12 439.03
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 711384.23 512.54
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 734000 0
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 729656.00 -434.40
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 726389.44 -717.62
17 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 727652.64 -519.53
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 726219.80 -610.87
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 727904.04 -381.35
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 690560 0
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 691594.00 103.40
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 697075.66 641.23
18 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 699745.20 844.06
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 705386.33 1323.76
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 707867.08 1439.46
des 2017 708,720.00 708720
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 700900 0
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 705358.00 445.80
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 707023.42 567.76
19 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 711688.06 977.45
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 713226.96 1033.60
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 713706.50 978.19
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 745480 0
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 742732.00 -274.80
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 743067.48 -213.77
20 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 740396.34 -459.51
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 736815.15 -771.68
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 729116.72 -1464.35
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 718000 0
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 721056.00 305.60
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 721053.44 274.78
21 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 720067.40 148.70
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 714872.09 -385.70
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 713045.65 -529.77
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 748560 0
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 745532.00 -302.80
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 741578.28 -667.89
22 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 733496.95 -1409.24
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 728886.84 -1729.32
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 733506.37 -1094.44
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 718280 0
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717324.00 -95.60
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 712183.16 -600.12
23 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 710432.63 -715.16
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 717810.32 94.12
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 711548.60 -541.46
may 2018 734,778.00 734778
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708720 0
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 704525.60 -419.44
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 703703.44 -459.71
24 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 711983.96 414.31
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 706593.04 -166.21
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 709261.95 117.30
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 666776 0
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 670106.30 333.03
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 682460.00 1535.10
25 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 681030.18 1238.61
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 687519.71 1763.70
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 689120.67 1747.42
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 700079 0
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 709135.70 905.67
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 704471.83 348.72
26 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 707816.29 648.29
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 706383.73 440.20
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 699709.34 -271.25
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 790646 0
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 777016.00 -1363.00
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 771565.50 -1771.75
27 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 761579.98 -2593.13
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 746655.96 -3826.22
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 734025.57 -4706.63
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 654346 0
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 662389.20 804.32
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 665639.77 1048.94
28 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 663587.64 738.84
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 663372.63 643.45
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 666695.18 911.36
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


may 2018 734,778.00 734778 734778 0
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 730065.80 -471.22
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 720202.92 -1410.39
29 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 712392.08 -2050.43
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 708388.19 -2245.78
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 701183.77 -2741.64
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 687656 0
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 682458.20 -519.78
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 679223.38 -791.28
30 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 679669.58 -667.54
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 676757.44 -892.00
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 675944.40 -884.10
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 635678 0
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 637589.00 191.10
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 643082.79 721.37
31 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 645079.34 848.89
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 649000.91 1156.16
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 659031.36 2043.58
jan 2019
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.2
Dengan Data Acuan 6 Bulan

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


706480 0.00 0 jan 2016
706480 -15604.00 15604 0.022586 feb 2016
704763.56 5124.44 5124.44 0.007219 mar 2016
705171.21 -18171.21 18171.21 0.02645 apr 2016
703067.58 -4367.58 4367.58 0.006251 mei 2016
702300.64 17699.36 17699.36 0.024582 jun 2016
703917.38 64982.62 64982.62 0.084514 jul 2016
60966.59 0.087088
12193.31797
1.742%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


690876 0.00 0 feb 2016
690876 19012.00 19012 0.026782 mar 2016
692967.32 -5967.32 5967.32 0.008686 apr 2016
692501.03 6198.97 6198.97 0.008872 mei 2016
693313.37 26686.63 26686.63 0.037065 jun 2016
696441.33 72458.67 72458.67 0.094237 jul 2016
704871.09 76028.91 76028.91 0.097361 ags 2016
130323.58 0.175641
26064.71673
3.513%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


709888 0.00 0 mar 2016
709888 -22888.00 22888 0.033316 apr 2016
707370.32 -8670.32 8670.32 0.012409 mei 2016
706187.70 13812.30 13812.30 0.019184 jun 2016
707391.47 61508.53 61508.53 0.079995 jul 2016
713979.95 66920.05 66920.05 0.085696 ags 2016
721778.78 -121678.78 121678.78 0.202764 sep 2016
173799.19 0.2306
34759.83789
4.612%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


687000 0.00 0 apr 2016
687000 11700.00 11700 0.016745 mei 2016
688287 31713.00 31713 0.044046 jun 2016
691892.43 77007.57 77007.57 0.100153 jul 2016
700797.39 80102.61 80102.61 0.102577 ags 2016
710812.89 -110712.89 110712.89 0.184491 sep 2016
700639.70 -60139.70 60139.70 0.093895 okt 2016
311236.06 0.448012
62247.2125
8.960%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


698700 0.00 0 mei 2016
698700 21300.00 21300 0.029583 jun 2016
701043 67857.00 67857 0.088252 jul 2016
708720.27 72179.73 72179.73 0.092431 ags 2016
717551.61 -117451.61 117451.61 0.19572 sep 2016
706245.30 -65745.30 65745.30 0.102647 okt 2016
699452.17 -20476.17 20476.17 0.030157 nov 2016
344533.64 0.508634
68906.72815
10.173%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


720000 0.00 0 jun 2016
720000 48900.00 48900 0.063597 jul 2016
725379 55521.00 55521 0.071099 ags 2016
731975.31 -131875.31 131875.31 0.219756 sep 2016
718513.24 -78013.24 78013.24 0.121801 okt 2016
709657.24 -30681.24 30681.24 0.045188 nov 2016
705227.63 -15227.63 15227.63 0.022069 des 2016
344990.78 0.52144
68998.15655
10.429%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


768900 0.00 0 jul 2016
768900 12000.00 12000 0.015367 ags 2016
770220 -170120.00 170120 0.283486 sep 2016
751626.80 -111126.80 111126.80 0.1735 okt 2016
737821.65 -58845.65 58845.65 0.086668 nov 2016
728656.16 -38656.16 38656.16 0.056023 des 2016
721123.06 13896.94 13896.94 0.018907 jan 2017
390748.61 0.615045
78149.72286
12.301%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


780900 0.00 0 ags 2016
780900 -180800.00 180800 0.301283 sep 2016
761012 -120512.00 120512 0.188153 okt 2016
745947.68 -66971.68 66971.68 0.098636 nov 2016
735567.68 -45567.68 45567.68 0.06604 des 2016
726872.39 8147.61 8147.61 0.011085 jan 2017
723630.12 19729.88 19729.88 0.026541 feb 2017
421998.96 0.665197
84399.79221
13.304%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


600100 0.00 0 sep 2016
600100 40400.00 40400 0.063076 okt 2016
604544 74432.00 74432 0.109624 nov 2016
613135.52 76864.48 76864.48 0.111398 des 2016
622738.93 112281.07 112281.07 0.152759 jan 2017
637006.81 106353.19 106353.19 0.143071 feb 2017
651745.44 36814.56 36814.56 0.053466 mar 2017
410330.73 0.579928
82066.14644
11.599%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


640500 0.00 0 okt 2016
640500 38476.00 38476 0.056668 nov 2016
644732.36 45267.64 45267.64 0.065605 des 2016
650096.56 84923.44 84923.44 0.115539 jan 2017
660275.58 83084.42 83084.42 0.111769 feb 2017
671101.53 17458.47 17458.47 0.025355 mar 2017
675539.48 29840.52 29840.52 0.042304 apr 2017
269209.97 0.374936
53841.99435
7.499%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


678976 0.00 0 nov 2016
678976 11024.00 11024 0.015977 des 2016
680188.64 54831.36 54831.36 0.074598 jan 2017
686330.33 57029.67 57029.67 0.076719 feb 2017
693262.15 -4702.15 4702.15 0.006829 mar 2017
693973.76 11406.24 11406.24 0.01617 apr 2017
696410.28 37589.72 37589.72 0.051212 mei 2017
138993.42 0.190293
27798.68325
3.806%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


690000 0.00 0 des 2016
690000 45020.00 45020 0.06125 jan 2017
694952.2 48407.80 48407.8 0.06512 feb 2017
700727.26 -12167.26 12167.26 0.017671 mar 2017
700323.14 5056.86 5056.86 0.007169 apr 2017
701692.00 32308.00 32308.00 0.044016 mei 2017
706109.05 -15549.05 15549.05 0.022517 jun 2017
142959.92 0.195226
28591.9845
3.905%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


735020 0.00 0 jan 2017
735020 8340.00 8340 0.011219 feb 2017
735937.4 -47377.40 47377.4 0.068806 mar 2017
730809.29 -25429.29 25429.29 0.03605 apr 2017
727621.69 6378.31 6378.31 0.00869 mei 2017
727678.64 -37118.64 37118.64 0.053752 jun 2017
723014.70 -22114.70 22114.70 0.031552 jul 2017
124643.63 0.178518
24928.72664
3.570%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


743360 0.00 0 feb 2017
743360 -54800.00 54800 0.079586 mar 2017
737332 -31952.00 31952 0.045298 apr 2017
733269.28 730.72 730.72 0.000996 mei 2017
732482.14 -41922.14 41922.14 0.060707 jun 2017
727010.49 -26110.49 26110.49 0.037253 jul 2017
722858.90 22621.10 22621.10 0.030344 ags 2017
155515.35 0.22384
31103.07006
4.477%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


688560 0.00 0 mar 2017
688560 16820.00 16820 0.023845 apr 2017
690410.2 43589.80 43589.8 0.059387 mei 2017
695373.28 -4813.28 4813.28 0.00697 jun 2017
695447.92 5452.08 5452.08 0.007779 jul 2017
696603.61 48876.39 48876.39 0.065564 ags 2017
702590.50 15409.50 15409.50 0.021462 sep 2017
119551.55 0.163544
23910.31053
3.271%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


705380 0.00 0 apr 2017
705380 28620.00 28620 0.038992 mei 2017
708528.2 -17968.20 17968.2 0.02602 jun 2017
706837.90 -5937.90 5937.90 0.008472 jul 2017
706291.25 39188.75 39188.75 0.052568 ags 2017
710649.15 7350.85 7350.85 0.010238 sep 2017
711896.77 36663.23 36663.23 0.048978 okt 2017
99065.70 0.13629
19813.14035
2.726%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


734000 0.00 0 mei 2017
734000 -43440.00 43440 0.062905 jun 2017
729221.6 -28321.60 28321.6 0.040407 jul 2017
725671.82 19808.18 19808.18 0.026571 ags 2017
727133.11 -9133.11 9133.11 0.01272 sep 2017
725608.93 22951.07 22951.07 0.03066 okt 2017
727522.68 -9242.68 9242.68 0.012868 nov 2017
123653.95 0.173264
24730.79041
3.465%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


690560 0.00 0 jun 2017
690560 10340.00 10340 0.014752 jul 2017
691697.4 53782.60 53782.6 0.072145 ags 2017
697716.89 20283.11 20283.11 0.028249 sep 2017
700589.25 47970.75 47970.75 0.064084 okt 2017
706710.09 11569.91 11569.91 0.016108 nov 2017
709306.55 -586.55 586.55 0.000828 des 2017
143946.37 0.195339
28789.27316
3.907%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


700900 0.00 0 jul 2017
700900 44580.00 44580 0.0598 ags 2017
705803.8 12196.20 12196.2 0.016986 sep 2017
707591.18 40968.82 40968.82 0.05473 okt 2017
712665.51 5614.49 5614.49 0.007817 nov 2017
714260.56 -5540.56 5540.56 0.007818 des 2017
714684.69 -47908.69 47908.69 0.071851 jan 2018
108900.06 0.147151
21780.01233
2.943%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


745480 0.00 0 ags 2017
745480 -27480.00 27480 0.038273 sep 2017
742457.2 6102.80 6102.8 0.008153 okt 2017
742853.71 -24573.71 24573.71 0.034212 nov 2017
739936.83 -31216.83 31216.83 0.044047 des 2017
736043.47 -69267.47 69267.47 0.103884 jan 2018
727652.37 -27573.37 27573.37 0.039386 feb 2018
158640.80 0.228569
31728.16081
4.571%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


718000 0.00 0 sep 2017
718000 30560.00 30560 0.040825 okt 2017
721361.6 -3081.60 3081.6 0.00429 nov 2017
721328.22 -12608.22 12608.22 0.01779 des 2017
720216.10 -53440.10 53440.10 0.080147 jan 2018
714486.39 -14407.39 14407.39 0.02058 feb 2018
712515.88 78130.12 78130.12 0.098818 mar 2018
114097.32 0.163632
22819.46422
3.273%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


748560 0.00 0 okt 2017
748560 -30280.00 30280 0.042156 nov 2017
745229.2 -36509.20 36509.2 0.051514 des 2017
740910.39 -74134.39 74134.39 0.111183 jan 2018
732087.71 -32008.71 32008.71 0.045722 feb 2018
727157.52 63488.48 63488.48 0.0803 mar 2018
732411.93 -78065.93 78065.93 0.119304 apr 2018
236420.78 0.330875
47284.15647
6.617%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


718280 0.00 0 nov 2017
718280 -9560.00 9560 0.013489 des 2017
717228.4 -50452.40 50452.4 0.075666 jan 2018
711583.04 -11504.04 11504.04 0.016432 feb 2018
709717.47 80928.53 80928.53 0.102357 mar 2018
717904.44 -63558.44 63558.44 0.097133 apr 2018
711007.13 23770.87 23770.87 0.032351 may 2018
216003.41 0.305078
43200.68203
6.102%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


708720 0.00 0 des 2017
708720 -41944.00 41944 0.062906 jan 2018
704106.16 -4027.16 4027.16 0.005752 feb 2018
703243.73 87402.27 87402.27 0.110545 mar 2018
712398.27 -58052.27 58052.27 0.088718 apr 2018
706426.83 28351.17 28351.17 0.038585 may 2018
709379.25 -21723.25 21723.25 0.03159 jun 2018
219776.87 0.306506
43955.37325
6.130%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


666776 0.00 0 jan 2018
666776 33303.00 33303 0.04757 feb 2018
670439.33 120206.67 120206.67 0.152036 mar 2018
683995.09 -29649.09 29649.09 0.045311 apr 2018
682268.79 52509.21 52509.21 0.071463 may 2018
689283.41 -1627.41 1627.41 0.002367 jun 2018
690868.09 -55190.09 55190.09 0.086821 jul 2018
237295.38 0.318747
47459.07651
6.375%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


700079 0.00 0 feb 2018
700079 90567.00 90567 0.114548 mar 2018
710041.37 -55695.37 55695.37 0.085116 apr 2018
704820.55 29957.45 29957.45 0.040771 may 2018
708464.59 -20808.59 20808.59 0.03026 jun 2018
706823.93 -71145.93 71145.93 0.111921 jul 2018
699438.08 -44650.08 44650.08 0.06819 aug 2018
268174.34 0.382616
53634.8675
7.652%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


790646 0.00 0 mar 2018
790646 -136300.00 136300 0.2083 apr 2018
775653 -40875.00 40875 0.055629 may 2018
769793.75 -82137.75 82137.75 0.119446 jun 2018
758986.85 -123308.85 123308.85 0.19398 jul 2018
742829.75 -88041.75 88041.75 0.134458 aug 2018
729318.94 -38511.94 38511.94 0.055749 sep 2018
470663.34 0.711813
94132.66886
14.236%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


654346 0.00 0 apr 2018
654346 80432.00 80432 0.109464 may 2018
663193.52 24462.48 24462.48 0.035574 jun 2018
666688.71 -31010.71 31010.71 0.048784 jul 2018
664326.48 -9538.48 9538.48 0.014567 aug 2018
664016.08 26790.92 26790.92 0.038782 sep 2018
667606.54 -11050.54 11050.54 0.016831 oct 2018
172234.59 0.247171
34446.91757
4.943%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


734778 0.00 0 may 2018
734778 -47122.00 47122 0.068526 jun 2018
729594.58 -93916.58 93916.58 0.147742 jul 2018
718792.54 -64004.54 64004.54 0.097748 aug 2018
710341.65 -19534.65 19534.65 0.028278 sep 2018
706142.41 -49586.41 49586.41 0.075525 oct 2018
698442.13 -21787.13 21787.13 0.032198 nov 2018
274164.18 0.417819
54832.83524
8.356%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


687656 0.00 0 jun 2018
687656 -51978.00 51978 0.081768 jul 2018
681938.42 -27150.42 27150.42 0.041464 aug 2018
678432.09 12374.91 12374.91 0.017914 sep 2018
679002.05 -22446.05 22446.05 0.034188 oct 2018
675865.45 789.55 789.55 0.001167 nov 2018
675060.30 63839.70 63839.70 0.086398 dec 2018
114738.93 0.1765
22947.78535
3.530%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


635678 0.00 0 jul 2018
635678 19110.00 19110 0.029185 aug 2018
637780.1 53026.90 53026.9 0.076761 sep 2018
643804.16 12751.84 12751.84 0.019422 oct 2018
645928.23 30726.77 30726.77 0.04541 nov 2018
650157.06 88742.94 88742.94 0.120101 dec 2018
661074.94 jan 2019
204358.45 0.290879
40871.68959
5.818%
QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|
706,480.00 706,480.00 706480 0 706480 0.00 0
690,876.00 690,876.00 703359.20 -624.16 706480 -15604.00 15604
709,888.00 709,888.00 704165.63 -338.04 702735.04 7152.96 7152.96
687,000.00 687,000.00 700462.07 -1011.15 703827.59 -16827.59 16827.59
698,700.00 698,700.00 699300.74 -1041.18 699450.93 -750.93 750.93
720,000.00 720,000.00 702607.65 -171.56 698259.56 21740.44 21740.44
768,900.00 768,900.00 702436.08 66463.92 66463.92
total 62075.92
mad 12415.1836
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


690,876.00 690,876.00 690876 0 690876 0.00 0
709,888.00 709,888.00 694678.40 760.48 690876 19012.00 19012
687,000.00 687,000.00 693751.10 422.92 695438.88 -8438.88 8438.88
698,700.00 698,700.00 695079.22 603.96 694174.03 4525.97 4525.97
720,000.00 720,000.00 700546.55 1576.64 695683.19 24316.81 24316.81
768,900.00 768,900.00 715478.55 4247.71 702123.19 66776.81 66776.81
780,900.00 780,900.00 719726.26 61173.74 61173.74
total 123070.48
mad 24614.0958
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


709,888.00 709,888.00 709888 0 709888 0.00 0
687,000.00 687,000.00 705310.40 -915.52 709888 -22888.00 22888
698,700.00 698,700.00 703255.90 -1143.32 704394.88 -5694.88 5694.88
720,000.00 720,000.00 705690.07 -427.82 702112.59 17887.41 17887.41
768,900.00 768,900.00 717989.80 2117.69 705262.25 63637.75 63637.75
780,900.00 780,900.00 732265.99 4549.39 720107.49 60792.51 60792.51
600,100.00 600,100.00 736815.39 -136715.39 136715.39
total 170900.55
mad 34180.1092
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


687,000.00 687,000.00 687000 0 687000 0.00 0
698,700.00 698,700.00 689340.00 468.00 687000 11700.00 11700
720,000.00 720,000.00 695846.40 1675.68 689808 30192.00 30192
768,900.00 768,900.00 711797.66 4530.80 697522.08 71377.92 71377.92
780,900.00 780,900.00 729242.77 7113.66 716328.46 64571.54 64571.54
600,100.00 600,100.00 709105.14 1663.40 736356.43 -136256.43 136256.43
640,500.00 640,500.00 710768.54 -70268.54 70268.54
total 314097.89
mad 62819.5772
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


698,700.00 698,700.00 698700 0 698700 0.00 0
720,000.00 720,000.00 702960.00 852.00 698700 21300.00 21300
768,900.00 768,900.00 716829.60 3455.52 703812 65088.00 65088
780,900.00 780,900.00 732408.10 5880.12 720285.12 60614.88 60614.88
600,100.00 600,100.00 710650.57 352.59 738288.21 -138188.21 138188.21
640,500.00 640,500.00 696902.52 -2467.54 711003.16 -70503.16 70503.16
678,976.00 678,976.00 694434.99 -15458.99 15458.99
total 355694.25
mad 71138.8494
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


720,000.00 720,000.00 720000 0 720000 0.00 0
768,900.00 768,900.00 729780.00 1956.00 720000 48900.00 48900
780,900.00 780,900.00 741568.80 3922.56 731736 49164.00 49164
600,100.00 600,100.00 716413.09 -1893.09 745491.36 -145391.36 145391.36
640,500.00 640,500.00 699715.99 -4853.89 714519.99 -74019.99 74019.99
678,976.00 678,976.00 691684.88 -5489.34 694862.10 -15886.10 15886.10
690,000.00 690,000.00 686195.54 3804.46 3804.46
total 333361.45
mad 66672.2909
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


768,900.00 768900 768900 0 768900 0.00 0
780,900.00 780900 771300.00 480.00 768900 12000.00 12000
600,100.00 600100 737444.00 -6387.20 771780 -171680.00 171680
640,500.00 640500 712945.44 -10009.47 731056.80 -90556.80 90556.80
678,976.00 678976 698143.97 -10967.87 702935.97 -23959.97 23959.97
690,000.00 690000 687740.88 -10854.91 687176.10 2823.90 2823.90
735,020.00 735020 676885.97 58134.03 58134.03
total 301020.66
mad 60204.1329
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


780,900.00 780900 780900 0 780900 0.00 0
600,100.00 600100 744740.00 -7232.00 780900 -180800.00 180800
640,500.00 640500 718106.40 -11112.32 737508 -97008.00 97008
678,976.00 678976 701390.46 -12233.04 706994.08 -28018.08 28018.08
690,000.00 690000 689325.94 -12199.34 689157.42 842.58 842.58
735,020.00 735020 688705.28 -9883.60 677126.60 57893.40 57893.40
743,360.00 743360 678821.67 64538.33 64538.33
total 364562.06
mad 72912.4125
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


600,100.00 600100 600100 0 600100 0.00 0
640,500.00 640500 608180.00 1616.00 600100 40400.00 40400
678,976.00 678976 623632.00 4383.20 609796 69180.00 69180
690,000.00 690000 640412.16 6862.59 628015.20 61984.80 61984.80
735,020.00 735020 664823.80 10372.40 647274.75 87745.25 87745.25
743,360.00 743360 688828.96 13098.95 675196.20 68163.80 68163.80
688,560.00 688560 701927.92 -13367.92 13367.92
total 327473.84
mad 65494.7689
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


640,500.00 640500 640500 0 640500 0.00 0
678,976.00 678976 648195.20 1539.04 640500 38476.00 38476
690,000.00 690000 657787.39 3149.67 649734.24 40265.76 40265.76
735,020.00 735020 675753.65 6112.99 660937.06 74082.94 74082.94
743,360.00 743360 694165.31 8572.72 681866.64 61493.36 61493.36
688,560.00 688560 699902.43 8005.60 702738.03 -14178.03 14178.03
705,380.00 705380 707908.03 -2528.03 2528.03
total 228496.09
mad 45699.2185
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


678,976.00 678976 678976 0 678976 0.00 0
690,000.00 690000 681180.80 440.96 678976 11024.00 11024
735,020.00 735020 692301.41 2576.89 681621.76 53398.24 53398.24
743,360.00 743360 704574.64 4516.16 694878.30 48481.70 48481.70
688,560.00 688560 704984.64 3694.93 709090.80 -20530.80 20530.80
705,380.00 705380 708019.65 3562.94 708679.56 -3299.56 3299.56
734,000.00 734000 711582.59 22417.41 22417.41
total 136734.30
mad 27346.8601
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


690,000.00 690000 690000 0 690000 0.00 0
735,020.00 735020 699004.00 1800.80 690000 45020.00 45020
743,360.00 743360 709315.84 3503.01 700804.8 42555.20 42555.2
688,560.00 688560 707967.08 2532.65 712818.85 -24258.85 24258.85
705,380.00 705380 709475.79 2327.86 710499.73 -5119.73 5119.73
734,000.00 734000 716242.92 3215.72 711803.65 22196.35 22196.35
690,560.00 690560 719458.64 -28898.64 28898.64
total 139150.13
mad 27830.0259
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


735,020.00 735020 735020 0 735020 0.00 0
743,360.00 743360 736688.00 333.60 735020 8340.00 8340
688,560.00 688560 727329.28 -1604.86 737021.6 -48461.60 48461.6
705,380.00 705380 721655.53 -2418.64 725724.42 -20344.42 20344.42
734,000.00 734000 722189.51 -1828.12 719236.89 14763.11 14763.11
690,560.00 690560 714401.12 -3020.17 720361.40 -29801.40 29801.40
700,900.00 700900 711380.95 -10480.95 10480.95
total 121710.52
mad 24342.1042
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


743,360.00 743360 743360 0 743360 0.00 0
688,560.00 688560 732400.00 -2192.00 743360 -54800.00 54800
705,380.00 705380 725242.40 -3185.12 730208 -24828.00 24828
734,000.00 734000 724445.82 -2707.41 722057.28 11942.72 11942.72
690,560.00 690560 715502.73 -3954.55 721738.41 -31178.41 31178.41
700,900.00 700900 709418.55 -4380.48 711548.18 -10648.18 10648.18
745,480.00 745480 705038.07 40441.93 40441.93
total 133397.32
mad 26679.4631
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


688,560.00 688560 688560 0 688560 0.00 0
705,380.00 705380 691924.00 672.80 688560 16820.00 16820
734,000.00 734000 700877.44 2328.93 692596.8 41403.20 41403.2
690,560.00 690560 700677.09 1823.07 703206.37 -12646.37 12646.37
700,900.00 700900 702180.13 1759.07 702500.17 -1600.17 1600.17
745,480.00 745480 712247.36 3420.70 703939.20 41540.80 41540.80
718,000.00 718000 715668.06 2331.94 2331.94
total 114010.53
mad 22802.107
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


705,380.00 705380 705380 0 705380 0.00 0
734,000.00 734000 711104.00 1144.80 705380 28620.00 28620
690,560.00 690560 707911.04 277.25 712248.8 -21688.80 21688.8
700,900.00 700900 706730.63 -14.28 708188.29 -7288.29 7288.29
745,480.00 745480 714469.08 1536.26 706716.35 38763.65 38763.65
718,000.00 718000 716404.27 1616.05 716005.34 1994.66 1994.66
748,560.00 748560 718020.32 30539.68 30539.68
total 98355.40
mad 19671.0802
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


734,000.00 734000 734000 0 734000 0.00 0
690,560.00 690560 725312.00 -1737.60 734000 -43440.00 43440
700,900.00 700900 719039.52 -2644.58 723574.4 -22674.40 22674.4
745,480.00 745480 722211.96 -1481.17 716394.94 29085.06 29085.06
718,000.00 718000 720184.63 -1590.41 720730.78 -2730.78 2730.78
748,560.00 748560 724587.38 -391.77 718594.22 29965.78 29965.78
718,280.00 718280 724195.60 -5915.60 5915.60
total 127896.02
mad 25579.2035
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


690,560.00 690560 690560 0 690560 0.00 0
700,900.00 700900 692628.00 413.60 690560 10340.00 10340
745,480.00 745480 703529.28 2511.14 693041.6 52438.40 52438.4
718,000.00 718000 708432.33 2989.52 706040.42 11959.58 11959.58
748,560.00 748560 718849.48 4475.05 711421.85 37138.15 37138.15
718,280.00 718280 722315.62 4273.26 723324.53 -5044.53 5044.53
708,720.00 708720 726588.89 -17868.89 17868.89
total 116920.66
mad 23384.1318
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


700,900.00 700900 700900 0 700900 0.00 0
745,480.00 745480 709816.00 1783.20 700900 44580.00 44580
718,000.00 718000 712879.36 2039.23 711599.2 6400.80 6400.8
748,560.00 748560 721646.87 3384.89 714918.59 33641.41 33641.41
718,280.00 718280 723681.41 3114.82 725031.76 -6751.76 6751.76
708,720.00 708720 723180.98 2391.77 726796.23 -18076.23 18076.23
666,776.00 666776 725572.75 -58796.75 58796.75
total 109450.20
mad 21890.0395
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


745,480.00 745480 745480 0 745480 0.00 0
718,000.00 718000 739984.00 -1099.20 745480 -27480.00 27480
748,560.00 748560 740819.84 -712.19 738884.8 9675.20 9675.2
718,280.00 718280 735742.12 -1585.30 740107.65 -21827.65 21827.65
708,720.00 708720 729069.46 -2602.77 734156.82 -25436.82 25436.82
666,776.00 666776 714528.55 -4990.40 726466.69 -59690.69 59690.69
700,079.00 700079 709538.15 -9459.15 9459.15
total 144110.35
mad 28822.0708
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


718,000.00 718000 718000 0 718000 0.00 0
748,560.00 748560 724112.00 1222.40 718000 30560.00 30560
718,280.00 718280 723923.52 940.22 725334.4 -7054.40 7054.4
708,720.00 708720 721635.00 294.47 724863.74 -16143.74 16143.74
666,776.00 666776 710898.78 -1911.66 721929.47 -55153.47 55153.47
700,079.00 700079 707205.49 -2267.99 708987.11 -8908.11 8908.11
790,646.00 790646 704937.50 85708.50 85708.50
total 117819.72
mad 23563.9449
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


748,560.00 748560 748560 0 748560 0.00 0
718,280.00 718280 742504.00 -1211.20 748560 -30280.00 30280
708,720.00 708720 734778.24 -2514.11 741292.8 -32572.80 32572.8
666,776.00 666776 719166.50 -5133.64 732264.13 -65488.13 65488.13
700,079.00 700079 711242.09 -5691.79 714032.87 -13953.87 13953.87
790,646.00 790646 722569.44 -2287.96 705550.30 85095.70 85095.70
654,346.00 654346 720281.48 -65935.48 65935.48
total 227390.49
mad 45478.0986
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


718,280.00 718280 718280 0 718280 0.00 0
708,720.00 708720 716368.00 -382.40 718280 -9560.00 9560
666,776.00 666776 706143.68 -2350.78 715985.6 -49209.60 49209.6
700,079.00 700079 703050.12 -2499.34 703792.90 -3713.90 3713.90
790,646.00 790646 718569.82 1104.47 700550.78 90095.22 90095.22
654,346.00 654346 706608.63 -1508.66 719674.29 -65328.29 65328.29
734,778.00 734778 705099.97 29678.03 29678.03
total 217907.01
mad 43581.4019
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


708,720.00 708720 708720 0 708720 0.00 0
666,776.00 666776 700331.20 -1677.76 708720 -41944.00 41944
700,079.00 700079 698938.55 -1620.74 698653.44 1425.56 1425.56
790,646.00 790646 715983.45 2112.39 697317.81 93328.19 93328.19
654,346.00 654346 705345.87 -437.60 718095.84 -63749.84 63749.84
734,778.00 734778 710882.22 757.19 704908.27 29869.73 29869.73
687,656.00 687656 711639.40 -23983.40 23983.40
total 230317.32
mad 46063.4635
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


666,776.00 666776 666776 0 666776 0.00 0
700,079.00 700079 673436.60 1332.12 666776 33303.00 33303
790,646.00 790646 697944.18 5967.21 674768.72 115877.28 115877.28
654,346.00 654346 693998.31 3984.60 703911.39 -49565.39 49565.39
734,778.00 734778 705341.92 5456.40 697982.91 36795.09 36795.09
687,656.00 687656 706169.86 4530.71 710798.32 -23142.32 23142.32
635,678.00 635678 710700.57 -75022.57 75022.57
total 258683.09
mad 51736.6171
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


700,079.00 700079 700079 0 700079 0.00 0
790,646.00 790646 718192.40 3622.68 700079 90567.00 90567
654,346.00 654346 708321.26 923.92 721815.08 -67469.08 67469.08
734,778.00 734778 714351.74 1945.23 709245.18 25532.82 25532.82
687,656.00 687656 710568.78 799.59 716296.97 -28640.97 28640.97
635,678.00 635678 696230.30 -2228.02 711368.37 -75690.37 75690.37
654,788.00 654788 694002.27 -39214.27 39214.27
total 287900.24
mad 57580.0487
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


790,646.00 790646 790646 0 790646 0.00 0
654,346.00 654346 763386.00 -5452.00 790646 -136300.00 136300
734,778.00 734778 753302.80 -6378.24 757934 -23156.00 23156
687,656.00 687656 735070.85 -8748.98 746924.56 -59268.56 59268.56
635,678.00 635678 708193.09 -12374.74 726321.87 -90643.87 90643.87
654,788.00 654788 687612.28 -14015.95 695818.36 -41030.36 41030.36
690,807.00 690807 673596.33 17210.67 17210.67
total 350398.78
mad 70079.7562
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


654,346.00 654346 654346 0 654346 0.00 0
734,778.00 734778 670432.40 3217.28 654346 80432.00 80432
687,656.00 687656 676450.94 3777.53 673649.68 14006.32 14006.32
635,678.00 635678 671318.38 1995.51 680228.48 -44550.48 44550.48
654,788.00 654788 669608.72 1254.48 673313.90 -18525.90 18525.90
690,807.00 690807 674851.96 2052.23 670863.19 19943.81 19943.81
656,556.00 656556 676904.19 -20348.19 20348.19
total 177458.50
mad 35491.6996
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


734,778.00 734778 734778 0 734778 0.00 0
687,656.00 687656 725353.60 -1884.88 734778 -47122.00 47122
635,678.00 635678 705910.58 -5396.51 723468.72 -87790.72 87790.72
654,788.00 654788 691368.85 -7225.55 700514.07 -45726.07 45726.07
690,807.00 690807 685476.04 -6959.00 684143.30 6663.70 6663.70
656,556.00 656556 674124.83 -7837.45 678517.04 -21961.04 21961.04
676,655.00 676655 666287.39 10367.61 10367.61
total 209263.52
mad 41852.7046
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


687,656.00 687656 687656 0 687656 0.00 0
635,678.00 635678 677260.40 -2079.12 687656 -51978.00 51978
654,788.00 654788 671102.62 -2894.85 675181.28 -20393.28 20393.28
690,807.00 690807 672727.62 -1990.88 668207.77 22599.23 22599.23
656,556.00 656556 667900.59 -2558.11 670736.74 -14180.74 14180.74
676,655.00 676655 667604.98 -2105.61 665342.48 11312.52 11312.52
738,900.00 738900 665499.37 73400.63 73400.63
total 120463.77
mad 24092.7532
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


635,678.00 635678 635678 0 635678 0.00 0
654,788.00 654788 639500.00 764.40 635678 19110.00 19110
690,807.00 690807 650372.92 2786.10 640264.4 50542.60 50542.6
656,556.00 656556 653838.42 2921.98 653159.02 3396.98 3396.98
676,655.00 676655 660739.32 3717.77 656760.40 19894.60 19894.60
738,900.00 738900 679345.67 6695.48 664457.09 74442.91 74442.91
686041.15
total 167387.09
mad 33477.417
mape
alpha 0.3
Dengan Data Acuan 6 Bulan

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jan 2016 706,480.00 706,480.00
0.022586 feb 2016 690,876.00 690,876.00
0.010076 mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00
0.024494 apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00
0.001075 mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00
0.030195 jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00
0.08644 jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00
0.088426 total
mad
1.769% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


feb 2016 690,876.00 690,876.00
0.026782 mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00
0.012284 apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00
0.006478 mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00
0.033773 jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00
0.086847 jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00
0.078337 ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00
0.166164 total
mad
3.323% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00
0.033316 apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00
0.008151 mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00
0.024844 jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00
0.082765 jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00
0.077849 ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00
0.227821 sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00
0.226924 total
mad
4.538% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00
0.016745 mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00
0.041933 jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00
0.092831 jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00
0.082689 ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00
0.227056 sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00
0.109709 okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00
0.461255 total
mad
9.225% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00
0.029583 jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00
0.084651 jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00
0.077622 ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00
0.230275 sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00
0.110075 okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00
0.022768 nov 2016 678,976.00 678,976.00
0.532206 total
mad
10.644% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00
0.063597 jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00
0.062958 ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00
0.242279 sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00
0.115566 okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00
0.023397 nov 2016 678,976.00 678,976.00
0.005514 des 2016 690,000.00 690,000.00
0.507797 total
mad
10.156% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
0.015367 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
0.286086 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
0.141385 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.035288 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.004093 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.079092 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.482218 total
mad
9.644% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
0.301283 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
0.151457 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.041265 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.001221 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.078764 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.08682 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.573991 total
mad
11.480% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
0.063076 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.101889 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.089833 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.119378 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.091697 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.019414 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.465872 total
mad
9.317% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.056668 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.058356 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.10079 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.082724 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.020591 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.003584 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.319129 total
mad
6.383% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.015977 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.072649 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.06522 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.029817 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.004678 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.030541 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.18834 total
mad
3.767% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.06125 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.057247 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.035231 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.007258 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.03024 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.041848 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.191227 total
mad
3.825% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.011219 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.070381 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.028842 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.020113 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.043155 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.014954 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.173711 total
mad
3.474% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.079586 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.035198 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.016271 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.045149 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.015192 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.05425 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.191397 total
mad
3.828% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.023845 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.056408 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.018313 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.002283 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.055724 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.003248 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.156573 total
mad
3.131% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.038992 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.031408 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.010398 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.051998 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.002778 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.040798 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.135574 total
mad
2.711% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.062905 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.03235 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.039015 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.003803 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.040031 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.008236 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.178106 total
mad
3.562% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.014752 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.070342 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.016657 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.049613 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.007023 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.025213 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.158387 total
mad
3.168% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.0598 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.008915 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.044941 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.0094 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.025505 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.088181 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.148562 total
mad
2.971% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.038273 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.012925 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.030389 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.035891 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.089521 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.013512 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.206999 total
mad
4.140% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.040825 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.009821 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.022779 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.082717 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.012724 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.108403 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.168866 total
mad
3.377% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.042156 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.04596 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.098216 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.019932 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.107628 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.100765 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.313892 total
mad
6.278% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.013489 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.073802 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.005305 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.113951 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.099838 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.04039 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.306385 total
mad
6.128% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.062906 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.002036 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.11804 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.097425 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.040651 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.034877 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.321059 total
mad
6.421% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.04757 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.14656 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.075748 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.050076 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.033654 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.11802 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.353609 total
mad
7.072% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.114548 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.103109 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.034749 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.04165 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.11907 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.059889 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.413127 total
mad
8.263% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.2083 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.031514 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.086189 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.142594 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.062662 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.024914 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.531259 total
mad
10.625% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.109464 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.020368 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.070083 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.028293 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.02887 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.030992 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
0.257079 total
mad
5.142% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.068526 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.138106 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.069833 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.009646 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.033449 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
0.015322 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
0.31956 total
mad
6.391% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.081768 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.031145 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.032714 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.021599 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
0.016718 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
0.099338 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
0.183944 total
mad
3.679% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.029185 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.073165 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.005174 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
0.029401 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
0.100748 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
jan 2019
0.237673 total
mad
4.753% mape
level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
706480 0 706480 0.00 0
701798.80 -1404.36 706480 -15604.00 15604 0.022586
703242.51 -549.94 700394.44 9493.56 9493.56 0.013373
697984.80 -1962.27 702692.57 -15692.57 15692.57 0.022842
696825.77 -1721.30 696022.53 2677.47 2677.47 0.003832
702573.13 519.30 695104.47 24895.53 24895.53 0.034577
703092.43 65807.57 65807.57 0.085587
al 68363.13 0.097211
d 13672.6261
pe 1.944%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690876 0 690876 0.00 0
696579.60 1711.08 690876 19012.00 19012 0.026782
694903.48 694.92 698290.68 -11290.68 11290.68 0.016435
696528.88 974.06 695598.39 3101.61 3101.61 0.004439
704252.06 2998.80 697502.94 22497.06 22497.06 0.031246
725745.60 8547.22 707250.86 61649.14 61649.14 0.080178
734292.82 46607.18 46607.18 0.059684
al 117550.49 0.15908
d 23510.09783
pe 3.182%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


709888 0 709888 0.00 0
703021.60 -2059.92 709888 -22888.00 22888 0.033316
700283.18 -2263.47 700961.68 -2261.68 2261.68 0.003237
704613.79 -285.24 698019.70 21980.30 21980.30 0.030528
723699.98 5526.19 704328.55 64571.45 64571.45 0.083979
744728.32 10176.83 729226.17 51673.83 51673.83 0.066172
754905.15 -154805.15 154805.15 0.257966
al 163375.26 0.217232
d 32675.05128
pe 4.345%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


687000 0 687000 0.00 0
690510.00 1053.00 687000 11700.00 11700 0.016745
700094.10 3612.33 691563 28437.00 28437 0.039496
723264.50 9479.75 703706.43 65193.57 65193.57 0.084788
747190.98 13813.77 732744.25 48155.75 48155.75 0.061667
712733.32 -667.66 761004.75 -160904.75 160904.75 0.26813
712065.66 -71565.66 71565.66 0.111734
al 314391.06 0.470826
d 62878.21258
pe 9.417%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


698700 0 698700 0.00 0
705090.00 1917.00 698700 21300.00 21300 0.029583
725574.90 7487.37 707007 61893.00 61893 0.080496
747413.59 11792.77 733062.27 47837.73 47837.73 0.06126
711474.45 -2526.81 759206.35 -159106.35 159106.35 0.265133
688413.35 -8687.09 708947.64 -68447.64 68447.64 0.106866
679726.26 -750.26 750.26 0.001105
al 358584.73 0.543338
d 71716.94535
pe 10.867%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


720000 0 720000 0.00 0
734670.00 4401.00 720000 48900.00 48900 0.063597
751619.70 8165.61 739071 41829.00 41829 0.053565
711879.72 -6206.07 759785.31 -159685.31 159685.31 0.266098
686121.55 -12071.70 705673.65 -65173.65 65173.65 0.101754
675527.70 -11628.34 674049.86 4926.14 4926.14 0.007255
663899.36 26100.64 26100.64 0.037827
al 320514.10 0.49227
d 64102.82021
pe 9.845%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


768900 0 768900 0.00 0
772500.00 1080.00 768900 12000.00 12000 0.015367
721536.00 -14533.20 773580 -173480.00 173480 0.289085
687051.96 -20518.45 707002.80 -66502.80 66502.80 0.10383
670266.26 -19398.63 666533.51 12442.49 12442.49 0.018325
662607.34 -15876.71 650867.63 39132.37 39132.37 0.056714
646730.63 88289.37 88289.37 0.120118
al 303557.66 0.483321
d 60711.53282
pe 9.666%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


780900 0 780900 0.00 0
726660.00 -16272.00 780900 -180800.00 180800 0.301283
689421.60 -22561.92 710388 -69888.00 69888 0.109115
670494.58 -21471.45 666859.68 12116.32 12116.32 0.017845
661316.19 -17783.53 649023.12 40976.88 40976.88 0.059387
670978.86 -9549.67 643532.65 91487.35 91487.35 0.124469
661429.19 81930.81 81930.81 0.110217
al 395268.54 0.612099
d 79053.70805
pe 12.242%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


600100 0 600100 0.00 0
612220.00 3636.00 600100 40400.00 40400 0.063076
634792.00 9316.80 615856 63120.00 63120 0.092964
657876.16 13447.01 644108.80 45891.20 45891.20 0.066509
690432.22 19179.72 671323.17 63696.83 63696.83 0.08666
719736.36 22217.05 709611.94 33748.06 33748.06 0.045399
741953.41 -53393.41 53393.41 0.077544
al 246856.09 0.354608
d 49371.2183
pe 7.092%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


640500 0 640500 0.00 0
652042.80 3462.84 640500 38476.00 38476 0.056668
665853.95 6567.33 655505.64 34494.36 34494.36 0.049992
691200.90 12201.22 672421.28 62598.72 62598.72 0.085166
715389.48 15797.43 703402.11 39957.89 39957.89 0.053753
718398.83 11961.01 731186.91 -42626.91 42626.91 0.061907
730359.84 -24979.84 24979.84 0.035413
al 218153.87 0.307486
d 43630.7745
pe 6.150%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


678976 0 678976 0.00 0
682283.20 992.16 678976 11024.00 11024 0.015977
698798.75 5649.18 683275.36 51744.64 51744.64 0.070399
716121.55 9151.26 704447.93 38912.07 38912.07 0.052346
714258.97 5847.11 725272.81 -36712.81 36712.81 0.053318
715688.26 4521.76 720106.08 -14726.08 14726.08 0.020877
720210.02 13789.98 13789.98 0.018787
al 153119.61 0.212917
d 30623.92119
pe 4.258%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690000 0 690000 0.00 0
703506.00 4051.80 690000 45020.00 45020 0.06125
718298.46 7274.00 707557.8 35802.20 35802.2 0.048163
714468.72 3942.88 725572.46 -37012.46 37012.46 0.053753
714502.12 2770.03 718411.60 -13031.60 13031.60 0.018475
722290.51 4275.54 717272.15 16727.85 16727.85 0.02279
726566.05 -36006.05 36006.05 0.05214
al 147594.10 0.204431
d 29518.82084
pe 4.089%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


735020 0 735020 0.00 0
737522.00 750.60 735020 8340.00 8340 0.011219
723358.82 -3723.53 738272.6 -49712.60 49712.6 0.072198
715358.70 -5006.51 719635.29 -14255.29 14255.29 0.020209
717446.53 -2878.21 710352.19 23647.81 23647.81 0.032218
707365.83 -5038.96 714568.33 -24008.33 24008.33 0.034766
702326.87 -1426.87 1426.87 0.002036
al 119964.02 0.170611
d 23992.8044
pe 3.412%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


743360 0 743360 0.00 0
726920.00 -4932.00 743360 -54800.00 54800 0.079586
717005.60 -6426.72 721988 -16608.00 16608 0.023545
717605.22 -4318.82 710578.88 23421.12 23421.12 0.031909
706468.48 -6364.19 713286.40 -22726.40 22726.40 0.03291
700343.00 -6292.58 700104.28 795.72 795.72 0.001135
694050.42 51429.58 51429.58 0.068989
al 118351.23 0.169085
d 23670.24679
pe 3.382%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


688560 0 688560 0.00 0
693606.00 1513.80 688560 16820.00 16820 0.023845
706783.86 5013.02 695119.8 38880.20 38880.2 0.05297
705425.81 3101.70 711796.88 -21236.88 21236.88 0.030753
706239.26 2415.22 708527.51 -7627.51 7627.51 0.010882
719702.14 5729.52 708654.48 36825.52 36825.52 0.049398
725431.66 -7431.66 7431.66 0.01035
al 121390.11 0.16785
d 24278.02186
pe 3.357%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


705380 0 705380 0.00 0
713966.00 2575.80 705380 28620.00 28620 0.038992
708747.26 237.44 716541.8 -25981.80 25981.8 0.037624
706559.29 -490.18 708984.70 -8084.70 8084.70 0.011535
717892.37 3056.80 706069.10 39410.90 39410.90 0.052866
720064.42 2791.37 720949.17 -2949.17 2949.17 0.004107
722855.79 25704.21 25704.21 0.034338
al 105046.56 0.145125
d 21009.31254
pe 2.902%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


734000 0 734000 0.00 0
720968.00 -3909.60 734000 -43440.00 43440 0.062905
712210.88 -5363.86 717058.4 -16158.40 16158.4 0.023054
718436.92 -1886.89 706847.02 38632.98 38632.98 0.051823
716985.02 -1756.39 716550.03 1449.97 1449.97 0.002019
725228.04 1243.43 715228.63 33331.37 33331.37 0.044527
726471.47 -8191.47 8191.47 0.011404
al 133012.72 0.184329
d 26602.54361
pe 3.687%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690560 0 690560 0.00 0
693662.00 930.60 690560 10340.00 10340 0.014752
709858.82 5510.47 694592.6 50887.40 50887.4 0.068261
716158.50 5747.23 715369.29 2630.71 2630.71 0.003664
729902.01 8146.11 721905.73 26654.27 26654.27 0.035607
732117.69 6366.98 738048.13 -19768.13 19768.13 0.027521
738484.67 -29764.67 29764.67 0.041998
al 110280.51 0.149807
d 22056.10188
pe 2.996%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


700900 0 700900 0.00 0
714274.00 4012.20 700900 44580.00 44580 0.0598
718200.34 3986.44 718286.2 -286.20 286.2 0.000399
730098.75 6360.03 722186.78 26373.22 26373.22 0.035232
731005.15 4723.94 736458.78 -18178.78 18178.78 0.025309
727626.36 2293.12 735729.09 -27009.09 27009.09 0.03811
729919.48 -63143.48 63143.48 0.0947
al 116427.28 0.158849
d 23285.45677
pe 3.177%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


745480 0 745480 0.00 0
737236.00 -2473.20 745480 -27480.00 27480 0.038273
738901.96 -1231.45 734762.8 13797.20 13797.2 0.018432
731853.36 -2976.60 737670.51 -19390.51 19390.51 0.026996
722829.73 -4790.71 728876.76 -20156.76 20156.76 0.028441
702660.12 -9404.38 718039.02 -51263.02 51263.02 0.076882
693255.74 6823.26 6823.26 0.009746
al 132087.49 0.189023
d 26417.49809
pe 3.780%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718000 0 718000 0.00 0
727168.00 2750.40 718000 30560.00 30560 0.040825
726426.88 1702.94 729918.4 -11638.40 11638.4 0.016203
722306.88 -43.94 728129.82 -19409.82 19409.82 0.027387
705616.86 -5037.76 722262.94 -55486.94 55486.94 0.083217
700429.06 -5082.77 700579.09 -500.09 500.09 0.000714
695346.29 95299.71 95299.71 0.120534
al 117595.25 0.168346
d 23519.05037
pe 3.367%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


748560 0 748560 0.00 0
739476.00 -2725.20 748560 -30280.00 30280 0.042156
728341.56 -5247.97 736750.8 -28030.80 28030.8 0.039551
706198.31 -10316.55 723093.59 -56317.59 56317.59 0.084463
697140.93 -9938.80 695881.76 4197.24 4197.24 0.005995
718235.29 -628.85 687202.13 103443.87 103443.87 0.130835
717606.43 -63260.43 63260.43 0.096677
al 222269.50 0.303
d 44453.90093
pe 6.060%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718280 0 718280 0.00 0
715412.00 -860.40 718280 -9560.00 9560 0.013489
700218.92 -5160.20 714551.6 -47775.60 47775.6 0.071652
696564.80 -4708.38 695058.72 5020.28 5020.28 0.007171
721493.30 4182.68 691856.42 98789.58 98789.58 0.124948
704276.99 -2237.01 725675.98 -71329.98 71329.98 0.10901
702039.97 32738.03 32738.03 0.044555
al 232475.44 0.326269
d 46495.08814
pe 6.525%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


708720 0 708720 0.00 0
696136.80 -3774.96 708720 -41944.00 41944 0.062906
694676.99 -3080.42 692361.84 7717.16 7717.16 0.011023
721311.40 5834.03 691596.57 99049.43 99049.43 0.125277
705305.60 -717.92 727145.43 -72799.43 72799.43 0.111255
713644.78 1999.21 704587.69 30190.31 30190.31 0.041088
715643.99 -27987.99 27987.99 0.040701
al 251700.33 0.351548
d 50340.06676
pe 7.031%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


666776 0 666776 0.00 0
676766.90 2997.27 666776 33303.00 33303 0.04757
713028.72 12976.63 679764.17 110881.83 110881.83 0.140242
704507.55 6527.29 726005.35 -71659.35 71659.35 0.109513
718157.79 8664.18 711034.84 23743.16 23743.16 0.032313
715072.18 5139.24 726821.97 -39165.97 39165.97 0.056956
720211.42 -84533.42 84533.42 0.132982
al 278753.31 0.386594
d 55750.66176
pe 7.732%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


700079 0 700079 0.00 0
727249.10 8151.03 700079 90567.00 90567 0.114548
711083.89 856.16 735400.13 -81054.13 81054.13 0.12387
718791.43 2911.57 711940.05 22837.95 22837.95 0.031081
711488.91 -152.66 721703.01 -34047.01 34047.01 0.049512
688638.77 -6961.90 711336.25 -75658.25 75658.25 0.11902
681676.87 -26888.87 26888.87 0.041065
al 304164.34 0.438031
d 60832.86761
pe 8.761%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


790646 0 790646 0.00 0
749756.00 -12267.00 790646 -136300.00 136300 0.2083
736675.70 -12510.99 737489 -2711.00 2711 0.00369
713212.10 -15796.77 724164.71 -36508.71 36508.71 0.053092
678894.13 -21353.13 697415.32 -61737.32 61737.32 0.09712
656715.10 -21600.90 657540.99 -2752.99 2752.99 0.004204
635114.19 55692.81 55692.81 0.08062
al 240010.03 0.366406
d 48002.00526
pe 7.328%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


654346 0 654346 0.00 0
678475.60 7238.88 654346 80432.00 80432 0.109464
686296.94 7413.62 685714.48 1941.52 1941.52 0.002823
676300.79 2190.69 693710.55 -58032.55 58032.55 0.091292
671380.43 57.37 678491.47 -23703.47 23703.47 0.0362
677248.56 1800.60 671437.81 19369.19 19369.19 0.028039
679049.17 -22493.17 22493.17 0.034259
al 183478.74 0.267819
d 36695.74812
pe 5.356%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


734778 0 734778 0.00 0
720641.40 -4240.98 734778 -47122.00 47122 0.068526
692183.69 -11506.00 716400.42 -80722.42 80722.42 0.126986
672910.79 -13836.07 680677.70 -25889.70 25889.70 0.039539
668594.40 -10980.16 659074.72 31732.28 31732.28 0.045935
657296.77 -11075.41 657614.24 -1058.24 1058.24 0.001612
646221.36 30433.64 30433.64 0.044977
al 186524.64 0.282598
d 37304.92723
pe 5.652%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


687656 0 687656 0.00 0
672062.60 -4678.02 687656 -51978.00 51978 0.081768
663605.61 -5811.71 667384.58 -12596.58 12596.58 0.019238
667697.83 -2840.53 657793.89 33013.11 33013.11 0.047789
662366.91 -3587.65 664857.29 -8301.29 8301.29 0.012644
664141.98 -1978.83 658779.26 17875.74 17875.74 0.026418
662163.15 76736.85 76736.85 0.103853
al 123764.72 0.187856
d 24752.94462
pe 3.757%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


635678 0 635678 0.00 0
641411.00 1719.90 635678 19110.00 19110 0.029185
657433.73 6010.75 643130.9 47676.10 47676.1 0.069015
661377.94 5390.79 663444.48 -6888.48 6888.48 0.010492
669734.60 6280.55 666768.72 9886.28 9886.28 0.014611
694880.61 11940.19 676015.16 62884.84 62884.84 0.085106
706820.80
al 146445.70 0.208408
d 29289.1404
pe 4.168%
alpha 0.4
Dengan Data Acuan 6 Bulan

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2016 706,480.00 706,480.00 706480 0
feb 2016 690,876.00 690,876.00 700238.40 -2496.64
mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00 702600.26 -553.24
apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 696028.21 -2960.76
mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 695320.47 -2059.56
jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 703956.55 2218.70
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


feb 2016 690,876.00 690,876.00 690876 0
mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00 698480.80 3041.92
apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 695713.63 718.28
mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 697339.15 1081.18
jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 707052.20 4533.93
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 734511.67 13704.15
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00 709888 0
apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 700732.80 -3662.08
mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 697722.43 -3401.40
jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 704592.62 707.24
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 730739.92 10883.26
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 757333.91 17167.55
sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 687000 0
mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 691680.00 1872.00
jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 704131.20 6103.68
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 733700.93 15490.10
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 761874.62 20563.53
sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00 709502.89 -8610.57
okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 698700 0
jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 707220.00 3408.00
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 733936.80 12731.52
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 760360.99 18208.59
sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00 707181.75 -10346.54
okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00 674301.12 -19360.18
nov 2016 678,976.00 678,976.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 720000 0
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 739560.00 7824.00
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 760790.40 13186.56
sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00 704426.18 -14633.75
okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00 670075.45 -22520.54
nov 2016 678,976.00 678,976.00 660123.35 -17493.17
des 2016 690,000.00 690,000.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 768900 0
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 773700.00 1920.00
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 705412.00 -26163.20
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 663749.28 -32363.01
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 650422.16 -24748.65
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 651404.11 -14456.41
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780900 0
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 708580.00 -28928.00
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 663991.20 -35192.32
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 648869.73 -27163.98
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 649023.45 -16236.90
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 673679.93 120.45
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 600100 0
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 616260.00 6464.00
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 645224.80 15464.32
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 672413.47 20154.06
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 709548.52 26946.46
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 739240.99 28044.86
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 640500 0
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 655890.40 6156.16
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 673227.94 10628.71
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 704321.99 18814.85
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 731226.10 22050.55
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 727389.99 11695.89
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 678976 0
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 683385.60 1763.84
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 705097.66 9743.13
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 726248.48 14306.20
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 719756.81 5987.05
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 717598.32 2728.84
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690000 0
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 708008.00 7203.20
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 726470.72 11707.01
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 718330.64 3768.17
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 715411.28 1093.16
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 723502.67 3892.45
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 735020 0
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 738356.00 1334.40
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 719238.24 -6846.46
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 709587.07 -7968.35
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 714571.23 -2787.34
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 703294.33 -6183.16
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 743360 0
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 721440.00 -8768.00
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 709755.20 -9934.72
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 713492.29 -4466.00
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 701639.77 -7420.60
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 696891.50 -6351.67
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 688560 0
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 695288.00 2691.20
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 712387.52 8454.53
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 708729.23 3609.40
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 707763.18 1779.22
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 723917.44 7529.24
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 705380 0
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 716828.00 4579.20
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 709068.32 -356.35
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 705587.18 -1606.27
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 720580.55 5033.59
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 722568.48 3815.33
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 734000 0
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 716624.00 -6950.40
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 706164.16 -8354.18
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 716877.99 -726.97
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 716890.61 -431.14
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 729299.68 4704.95
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 690560 0
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 694696.00 1654.40
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 716002.24 9515.14
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 722510.43 8312.36
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 737917.67 11150.31
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 736752.79 6224.23
des 2017 708,720.00 708720
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 700900 0
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 718732.00 7132.80
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 722718.88 5874.43
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 736579.99 9069.10
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 734701.45 4690.05
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 727122.90 -217.39
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 745480 0
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 734488.00 -4396.80
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 737478.72 -1441.79
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 728934.16 -4282.90
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 718278.75 -6831.90
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 693578.51 -13979.24
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 718000 0
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 730224.00 4889.60
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 728380.16 2196.22
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 721833.83 -1300.80
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 699030.22 -9901.92
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693508.58 -8149.81
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 748560 0
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 736448.00 -4844.80
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 722449.92 -8506.11
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 695076.68 -16052.96
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687445.83 -12684.12
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 721115.43 5857.37
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 718280 0
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 714456.00 -1529.60
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 694466.24 -8913.66
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 691363.15 -6589.44
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727122.63 10350.13
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 704222.05 -2950.15
may 2018 734,778.00 734778
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708720 0
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 691942.40 -6711.04
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 691170.42 -4335.42
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 728359.40 12274.34
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 706118.65 -1531.70
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716663.37 3298.87
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 666776 0
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 680097.20 5328.48
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727513.81 22163.73
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 711544.92 6910.68
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 724984.57 9522.27
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 715766.50 2026.13
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 700079 0
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 736305.80 14490.72
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 712216.31 -941.36
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 720676.17 2819.12
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 709159.58 -2915.16
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 678017.85 -14205.79
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 790646 0
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 736126.00 -21808.00
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 722502.00 -18534.40
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 697442.96 -21144.26
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 660050.42 -27643.57
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 641359.31 -24062.59
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 654346 0
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 686518.80 12869.12
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 694695.15 10992.01
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 677683.50 -209.45
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 668399.63 -3839.22
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 675059.04 360.23
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


may 2018 734,778.00 734778 734778 0
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 715929.20 -7539.52
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 679305.01 -19173.39
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 657994.17 -20028.37
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 659102.28 -11573.78
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 651139.50 -10129.38
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 687656 0
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 666864.80 -8316.48
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 657044.19 -8918.13
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 665198.44 -2089.18
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 660487.95 -3137.70
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 665072.15 -48.94
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 635678 0
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 643322.00 3057.60
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 664150.56 10165.98
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 667212.33 7324.30
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 675383.97 7663.24
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 705388.33 16599.68
jan 2019
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.5
Dengan Data Acuan 6 Bulan

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


706480 0.00 0 jan 2016
706480 -15604.00 15604 0.022585819 feb 2016
697741.76 12146.24 12146.24 0.017110079 mar 2016
702047.01 -15047.01 15047.01 0.021902495 apr 2016
693067.44 5632.56 5632.56 0.008061479 mei 2016
693260.91 26739.09 26739.09 0.037137623 jun 2016
706175.25 62724.75 62724.75 0.081577258 jul 2016
75168.90 0.106797495
15033.7796
2.136%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


690876 0.00 0 feb 2016
690876 19012.00 19012 0.02678169 mar 2016
701522.72 -14522.72 14522.72 0.02113933 apr 2016
696431.92 2268.08 2268.08 0.003246147 mei 2016
698420.33 21579.67 21579.67 0.029971766 jun 2016
711586.12 57313.88 57313.88 0.074540093 jul 2016
748215.82 32684.18 32684.18 0.041854502 ags 2016
114696.35 0.155679027
22939.2705
3.114%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


709888 0.00 0 mar 2016
709888 -22888.00 22888 0.033315866 apr 2016
697070.72 1629.28 1629.28 0.002331873 mei 2016
694321.04 25678.96 25678.96 0.035665227 jun 2016
705299.86 63600.14 63600.14 0.082715748 jul 2016
741623.18 39276.82 39276.82 0.050296865 ags 2016
774501.46 -174401.46 174401.46 0.290620662 sep 2016
153073.20 0.20432558
30614.6409
4.087%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


687000 0.00 0 apr 2016
687000 11700.00 11700 0.016745384 mei 2016
693552 26448.00 26448 0.036733333 jun 2016
710234.88 58665.12 58665.12 0.076297464 jul 2016
749191.03 31708.97 31708.97 0.040605677 ags 2016
782438.15 -182338.15 182338.15 0.303846278 sep 2016
700892.32 -60392.32 60392.32 0.094289339 okt 2016
310860.24 0.474228136
62172.0488
9.485%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


698700 0.00 0 mei 2016
698700 21300.00 21300 0.029583333 jun 2016
710628 58272.00 58272 0.075786188 jul 2016
746668.32 34231.68 34231.68 0.043836189 ags 2016
778569.58 -178469.58 178469.58 0.297399735 sep 2016
696835.20 -56335.20 56335.20 0.087955042 okt 2016
654940.95 24035.05 24035.05 0.035398975 nov 2016
348608.47 0.534560487
69721.693
10.691%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


720000 0.00 0 jun 2016
720000 48900.00 48900 0.063597347 jul 2016
747384 33516.00 33516 0.042919708 ags 2016
773976.96 -173876.96 173876.96 0.289746642 sep 2016
689792.42 -49292.42 49292.42 0.076959286 okt 2016
647554.91 31421.09 31421.09 0.04627717 nov 2016
642630.18 47369.82 47369.82 0.068651913 des 2016
337006.47 0.519500153
67401.294
10.390%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


768900 0.00 0 jul 2016
768900 12000.00 12000 0.015366884 ags 2016
775620 -175520.00 175520 0.292484586 sep 2016
679248.80 -38748.80 38748.80 0.060497736 okt 2016
631386.27 47589.73 47589.73 0.070090442 nov 2016
625673.51 64326.49 64326.49 0.093226795 des 2016
636947.69 98072.31 98072.31 0.133428079 jan 2017
338185.02 0.531666443
67637.0033
10.633%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


780900 0.00 0 ags 2016
780900 -180800.00 180800 0.301283119 sep 2016
679652 -39152.00 39152 0.061127244 okt 2016
628798.88 50177.12 50177.12 0.073901169 nov 2016
621705.75 68294.25 68294.25 0.098977178 des 2016
632786.55 102233.45 102233.45 0.139089347 jan 2017
673800.38 69559.62 69559.62 0.093574606 feb 2017
440656.82 0.674378058
88131.365
13.488%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


600100 0.00 0 sep 2016
600100 40400.00 40400 0.063075722 okt 2016
622724 56252.00 56252 0.082848289 nov 2016
660689.12 29310.88 29310.88 0.042479536 des 2016
692567.53 42452.47 42452.47 0.057756887 jan 2017
736494.98 6865.02 6865.02 0.009235128 feb 2017
767285.84 -78725.84 78725.84 0.114334037 mar 2017
175280.37 0.255395563
35056.0744
5.108%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


640500 0.00 0 okt 2016
640500 38476.00 38476 0.056667688 nov 2016
662046.56 27953.44 27953.44 0.040512232 des 2016
683856.65 51163.35 51163.35 0.069608111 jan 2017
723136.83 20223.17 20223.17 0.027205076 feb 2017
753276.65 -64716.65 64716.65 0.093988402 mar 2017
739085.88 -33705.88 33705.88 0.047784005 apr 2017
202532.61 0.287981509
40506.5226
5.760%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


678976 0.00 0 nov 2016
678976 11024.00 11024 0.015976812 des 2016
685149.44 49870.56 49870.56 0.067849256 jan 2017
714840.79 28519.21 28519.21 0.038365269 feb 2017
740554.68 -51994.68 51994.68 0.075512198 mar 2017
725743.86 -20363.86 20363.86 0.028869349 apr 2017
720327.15 13672.85 13672.85 0.018627857 mei 2017
161772.31 0.226572883
32354.4613
4.531%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


690000 0.00 0 des 2016
690000 45020.00 45020 0.061250034 jan 2017
715211.2 28148.80 28148.8 0.037866982 feb 2017
738177.73 -49617.73 49617.73 0.072060137 mar 2017
722098.81 -16718.81 16718.81 0.023701846 apr 2017
716504.45 17495.55 17495.55 0.023835903 mei 2017
727395.12 -36835.12 36835.12 0.053340939 jun 2017
157000.89 0.218714903
31400.1778
4.374%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


735020 0.00 0 jan 2017
735020 8340.00 8340 0.011219328 feb 2017
739690.4 -51130.40 51130.4 0.074257 mar 2017
712391.78 -7011.78 7011.78 0.009940424 apr 2017
701618.72 32381.28 32381.28 0.044116189 mei 2017
711783.89 -21223.89 21223.89 0.030734313 jun 2017
697111.17 3788.83 3788.83 0.005405668 jul 2017
120087.35 0.170267254
24017.4692
3.405%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


743360 0.00 0 feb 2017
743360 -54800.00 54800 0.079586383 mar 2017
712672 -7292.00 7292 0.01033769 apr 2017
699820.48 34179.52 34179.52 0.046566104 mei 2017
709026.29 -18466.29 18466.29 0.026741038 jun 2017
694219.17 6680.83 6680.83 0.009531786 jul 2017
690539.83 54940.17 54940.17 0.073697709 ags 2017
121418.64 0.172763001
24283.728
3.455%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


688560 0.00 0 mar 2017
688560 16820.00 16820 0.023845303 apr 2017
697979.2 36020.80 36020.8 0.049074659 mei 2017
720842.05 -30282.05 30282.05 0.043851437 jun 2017
712338.63 -11438.63 11438.63 0.016319916 jul 2017
709542.40 35937.60 35937.60 0.048207333 ags 2017
731446.67 -13446.67 13446.67 0.018727959 sep 2017
130499.08 0.181298649
26099.816
3.626%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


705380 0.00 0 apr 2017
705380 28620.00 28620 0.038991826 mei 2017
721407.2 -30847.20 30847.2 0.044669833 jun 2017
708711.97 -7811.97 7811.97 0.011145624 jul 2017
703980.91 41499.09 41499.09 0.055667605 ags 2017
725614.14 -7614.14 7614.14 0.010604645 sep 2017
726383.81 22176.19 22176.19 0.029625138 okt 2017
116392.39 0.161079533
23278.4779
3.222%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


734000 0.00 0 mei 2017
734000 -43440.00 43440 0.062905468 jun 2017
709673.6 -8773.60 8773.6 0.01251762 jul 2017
697809.98 47670.02 47670.02 0.063945399 ags 2017
716151.02 1848.98 1848.98 0.002575185 sep 2017
716459.47 32100.53 32100.53 0.042883037 okt 2017
734004.63 -15724.63 15724.63 0.021892065 nov 2017
133833.13 0.184826709
26766.625
3.697%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


690560 0.00 0 jun 2017
690560 10340.00 10340 0.014752461 jul 2017
696350.4 49129.60 49129.6 0.065903311 ags 2017
725517.38 -7517.38 7517.38 0.010469883 sep 2017
730822.78 17737.22 17737.22 0.023695119 okt 2017
749067.98 -30787.98 30787.98 0.042863479 nov 2017
742977.02 -34257.02 34257.02 0.048336468 des 2017
115512.17 0.157684253
23102.4348
3.154%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


700900 0.00 0 jul 2017
700900 44580.00 44580 0.059800397 ags 2017
725864.8 -7864.80 7864.8 0.01095376 sep 2017
728593.31 19966.69 19966.69 0.026673464 okt 2017
745649.09 -27369.09 27369.09 0.038103649 nov 2017
739391.50 -30671.50 30671.50 0.043277319 des 2017
726905.51 -60129.51 60129.51 0.090179473 jan 2018
130452.08 0.178808589
26090.4157
3.576%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


745480 0.00 0 ags 2017
745480 -27480.00 27480 0.038272981 sep 2017
730091.2 18468.80 18468.8 0.024672438 okt 2017
736036.93 -17756.93 17756.93 0.024721457 nov 2017
724651.26 -15931.26 15931.26 0.022478915 des 2017
711446.85 -44670.85 44670.85 0.066995291 jan 2018
679599.27 20479.73 20479.73 0.029253451 feb 2018
124307.84 0.177141081
24861.5673
3.543%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


718000 0.00 0 sep 2017
718000 30560.00 30560 0.040825051 okt 2017
735113.6 -16833.60 16833.6 0.023435986 nov 2017
730576.38 -21856.38 21856.38 0.030839237 des 2017
720533.03 -53757.03 53757.03 0.080622327 jan 2018
689128.30 10950.70 10950.70 0.015642096 feb 2018
685358.77 105287.23 105287.23 0.133166084 mar 2018
133957.72 0.191364697
26791.544
3.827%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


748560 0.00 0 okt 2017
748560 -30280.00 30280 0.042156262 nov 2017
731603.2 -22883.20 22883.2 0.032288069 des 2017
713943.81 -47167.81 47167.81 0.070740111 jan 2018
679023.72 21055.28 21055.28 0.030075572 feb 2018
674761.72 115884.28 115884.28 0.146569113 mar 2018
726972.80 -72626.80 72626.80 0.11099143 apr 2018
237270.57 0.321829127
47454.1135
6.437%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


718280 0.00 0 nov 2017
718280 -9560.00 9560 0.013489107 des 2017
712926.4 -46150.40 46150.4 0.069214249 jan 2018
685552.58 14526.42 14526.42 0.020749693 feb 2018
684773.71 105872.29 105872.29 0.13390606 mar 2018
737472.76 -83126.76 83126.76 0.127037922 apr 2018
701271.90 33506.10 33506.10 0.0456003 may 2018
259235.87 0.36439703
51847.1741
7.288%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


708720 0.00 0 des 2017
708720 -41944.00 41944 0.062905683 jan 2018
685231.36 14847.64 14847.64 0.021208521 feb 2018
686835.00 103811.00 103811.00 0.131298965 mar 2018
740633.74 -86287.74 86287.74 0.131868678 apr 2018
704586.95 30191.05 30191.05 0.04108867 may 2018
719962.24 -32306.24 32306.24 0.046980237 jun 2018
277081.43 0.388370517
55416.2869
7.767%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


666776 0.00 0 jan 2018
666776 33303.00 33303 0.047570346 feb 2018
685425.68 105220.32 105220.32 0.133081455 mar 2018
749677.54 -95331.54 95331.54 0.145689802 apr 2018
718455.61 16322.39 16322.39 0.022214045 may 2018
734506.83 -46850.83 46850.83 0.068131206 jun 2018
717792.63 -82114.63 82114.63 0.12917646 jul 2018
297028.08 0.416686854
59405.6167
8.334%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


700079 0.00 0 feb 2018
700079 90567.00 90567 0.114548104 mar 2018
750796.52 -96450.52 96450.52 0.147399877 apr 2018
711274.95 23503.05 23503.05 0.031986602 may 2018
723495.29 -35839.29 35839.29 0.052118057 jun 2018
706244.41 -70566.41 70566.41 0.111009685 jul 2018
663812.06 -9024.06 9024.06 0.013781652 aug 2018
316926.28 0.457062324
63385.256
9.141%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


790646 0.00 0 mar 2018
790646 -136300.00 136300 0.208299585 apr 2018
714318 20460.00 20460 0.027845145 may 2018
703967.60 -16311.60 16311.60 0.023720581 jun 2018
676298.70 -40620.70 40620.70 0.063901384 jul 2018
632406.85 22381.15 22381.15 0.034180752 aug 2018
617296.73 73510.27 73510.27 0.106412172 sep 2018
236073.45 0.357947447
47214.69
7.159%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


654346 0.00 0 apr 2018
654346 80432.00 80432 0.109464355 may 2018
699387.92 -11731.92 11731.92 0.01706074 jun 2018
705687.16 -70009.16 70009.16 0.110133062 jul 2018
677474.05 -22686.05 22686.05 0.034646397 aug 2018
664560.41 26246.59 26246.59 0.037994105 sep 2018
675419.28 -18863.28 18863.28 0.028730646 oct 2018
211105.72 0.30929866
42221.1447
6.186%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


734778 0.00 0 may 2018
734778 -47122.00 47122 0.068525542 jun 2018
708389.68 -72711.68 72711.68 0.114384453 jul 2018
660131.62 -5343.62 5343.62 0.008160839 aug 2018
637965.80 52841.20 52841.20 0.076491982 sep 2018
647528.51 9027.49 9027.49 0.01374977 oct 2018
641010.13 35644.87 35644.87 0.052678062 nov 2018
187045.99 0.281312585
37409.198
5.626%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


687656 0.00 0 jun 2018
687656 -51978.00 51978 0.081767813 jul 2018
658548.32 -3760.32 3760.32 0.005742805 aug 2018
648126.06 42680.94 42680.94 0.061784173 sep 2018
663109.26 -6553.26 6553.26 0.009981259 oct 2018
657350.25 19304.75 19304.75 0.028529677 nov 2018
665023.21 73876.79 73876.79 0.099982124 dec 2018
124277.26 0.187805728
24855.4526
3.756%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


635678 0.00 0 jul 2018
635678 19110.00 19110 0.029185019 aug 2018
646379.6 44427.40 44427.4 0.064312319 sep 2018
674316.54 -17760.54 17760.54 0.027051073 oct 2018
674536.62 2118.38 2118.38 0.00313066 nov 2018
683047.21 55852.79 55852.79 0.075589104 dec 2018
721988.01 jan 2019
139269.11 0.199268174
27853.8219
3.985%
QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|
706,480.00 706,480.00 706480 0 706480 0.00 0
690,876.00 690,876.00 698678.00 -3901.00 706480 -15604.00 15604
709,888.00 709,888.00 702332.50 -123.25 694777 15111.00 15111
687,000.00 687,000.00 694604.63 -3925.56 702209.25 -15209.25 15209.25
698,700.00 698,700.00 694689.53 -1920.33 690679.06 8020.94 8020.94
720,000.00 720,000.00 706384.60 4887.37 692769.20 27230.80 27230.80
768,900.00 768,900.00 711271.97 57628.03 57628.03
total 81175.98
mad 16235.19688
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


690,876.00 690,876.00 690876 0 690876 0.00 0
709,888.00 709,888.00 700382.00 4753.00 690876 19012.00 19012
687,000.00 687,000.00 696067.50 219.25 705135 -18135.00 18135
698,700.00 698,700.00 697493.38 822.56 696286.75 2413.25 2413.25
720,000.00 720,000.00 709157.97 6243.58 698315.94 21684.06 21684.06
768,900.00 768,900.00 742150.77 19618.19 715401.55 53498.45 53498.45
780,900.00 780,900.00 761768.96 19131.04 19131.04
total 114742.77
mad 22948.55313
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


709,888.00 709,888.00 709888 0 709888 0.00 0
687,000.00 687,000.00 698444.00 -5722.00 709888 -22888.00 22888
698,700.00 698,700.00 695711.00 -4227.50 692722 5978.00 5978
720,000.00 720,000.00 705741.75 2901.63 691483.50 28516.50 28516.50
768,900.00 768,900.00 738771.69 17965.78 708643.38 60256.63 60256.63
780,900.00 780,900.00 768818.73 24006.41 756737.47 24162.53 24162.53
600,100.00 600,100.00 792825.15 -192725.15 192725.15
total 141801.66
mad 28360.33125
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


687,000.00 687,000.00 687000 0 687000 0.00 0
698,700.00 698,700.00 692850.00 2925.00 687000 11700.00 11700
720,000.00 720,000.00 707887.50 8981.25 695775 24225.00 24225
768,900.00 768,900.00 742884.38 21989.06 716868.75 52031.25 52031.25
780,900.00 780,900.00 772886.72 25995.70 764873.44 16026.56 16026.56
600,100.00 600,100.00 699491.21 -23699.90 798882.42 -198782.42 198782.42
640,500.00 640,500.00 675791.31 -35291.31 35291.31
total 302765.23
mad 60553.04688
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


698,700.00 698,700.00 698700 0 698700 0.00 0
720,000.00 720,000.00 709350.00 5325.00 698700 21300.00 21300
768,900.00 768,900.00 741787.50 18881.25 714675 54225.00 54225
780,900.00 780,900.00 770784.38 23939.06 760668.75 20231.25 20231.25
600,100.00 600,100.00 697411.72 -24716.80 794723.44 -194623.44 194623.44
640,500.00 640,500.00 656597.46 -32765.53 672694.92 -32194.92 32194.92
678,976.00 678,976.00 623831.93 55144.07 55144.07
total 322574.61
mad 64514.92188
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


720,000.00 720,000.00 720000 0 720000 0.00 0
768,900.00 768,900.00 744450.00 12225.00 720000 48900.00 48900
780,900.00 780,900.00 768787.50 18281.25 756675 24225.00 24225
600,100.00 600,100.00 693584.38 -28460.94 787068.75 -186968.75 186968.75
640,500.00 640,500.00 652811.72 -34616.80 665123.44 -24623.44 24623.44
678,976.00 678,976.00 648585.46 -19421.53 618194.92 60781.08 60781.08
690,000.00 690,000.00 629163.93 60836.07 60836.07
total 345498.27
mad 69099.65313
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


768,900.00 768900 768900 0 768900 0.00 0
780,900.00 780900 774900.00 3000.00 768900 12000.00 12000
600,100.00 600100 689000.00 -41450.00 777900 -177800.00 177800
640,500.00 640500 644025.00 -43212.50 647550.00 -7050.00 7050.00
678,976.00 678976 639894.25 -23671.63 600812.50 78163.50 78163.50
690,000.00 690000 653111.31 -5227.28 616222.63 73777.38 73777.38
735,020.00 735020 647884.03 87135.97 87135.97
total 348790.88
mad 69758.175
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


780,900.00 780900 780900 0 780900 0.00 0
600,100.00 600100 690500.00 -45200.00 780900 -180800.00 180800
640,500.00 640500 642900.00 -46400.00 645300 -4800.00 4800
678,976.00 678976 637738.00 -25781.00 596500.00 82476.00 82476.00
690,000.00 690000 650978.50 -6270.25 611957.00 78043.00 78043.00
735,020.00 735020 689864.13 16307.69 644708.25 90311.75 90311.75
743,360.00 743360 706171.81 37188.19 37188.19
total 436430.75
mad 87286.15
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


600,100.00 600100 600100 0 600100 0.00 0
640,500.00 640500 620300.00 10100.00 600100 40400.00 40400
678,976.00 678976 654688.00 22244.00 630400 48576.00 48576
690,000.00 690000 683466.00 25511.00 676932.00 13068.00 13068.00
735,020.00 735020 721998.50 32021.75 708977.00 26043.00 26043.00
743,360.00 743360 748690.13 29356.69 754020.25 -10660.25 10660.25
688,560.00 688560 778046.81 -89486.81 89486.81
total 138747.25
mad 27749.45
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


640,500.00 640500 640500 0 640500 0.00 0
678,976.00 678976 659738.00 9619.00 640500 38476.00 38476
690,000.00 690000 679678.50 14779.75 669357 20643.00 20643
735,020.00 735020 714739.13 24920.19 694458.25 40561.75 40561.75
743,360.00 743360 741509.66 25845.36 739659.31 3700.69 3700.69
688,560.00 688560 727957.51 6146.61 767355.02 -78795.02 78795.02
705,380.00 705380 734104.11 -28724.11 28724.11
total 182176.45
mad 36435.29063
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


678,976.00 678976 678976 0 678976 0.00 0
690,000.00 690000 684488.00 2756.00 678976 11024.00 11024
735,020.00 735020 711132.00 14700.00 687244 47776.00 47776
743,360.00 743360 734596.00 19082.00 725832.00 17528.00 17528.00
688,560.00 688560 721119.00 2802.50 753678.00 -65118.00 65118.00
705,380.00 705380 714650.75 -1832.88 723921.50 -18541.50 18541.50
734,000.00 734000 712817.88 21182.13 21182.13
total 159987.50
mad 31997.5
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


690,000.00 690000 690000 0 690000 0.00 0
735,020.00 735020 712510.00 11255.00 690000 45020.00 45020
743,360.00 743360 733562.50 16153.75 723765 19595.00 19595
688,560.00 688560 719138.13 864.69 749716.25 -61156.25 61156.25
705,380.00 705380 712691.41 -2791.02 720002.81 -14622.81 14622.81
734,000.00 734000 721950.20 3233.89 709900.39 24099.61 24099.61
690,560.00 690560 725184.08 -34624.08 34624.08
total 164493.67
mad 32898.73438
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


735,020.00 735020 735020 0 735020 0.00 0
743,360.00 743360 739190.00 2085.00 735020 8340.00 8340
688,560.00 688560 714917.50 -11093.75 741275 -52715.00 52715
705,380.00 705380 704601.88 -10704.69 703823.75 1556.25 1556.25
734,000.00 734000 713948.59 -678.98 693897.19 40102.81 40102.81
690,560.00 690560 701914.80 -6356.39 713269.61 -22709.61 22709.61
700,900.00 700900 695558.42 5341.58 5341.58
total 125423.67
mad 25084.73438
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


743,360.00 743360 743360 0 743360 0.00 0
688,560.00 688560 715960.00 -13700.00 743360 -54800.00 54800
705,380.00 705380 703820.00 -12920.00 702260 3120.00 3120
734,000.00 734000 712450.00 -2145.00 690900.00 43100.00 43100.00
690,560.00 690560 700432.50 -7081.25 710305.00 -19745.00 19745.00
700,900.00 700900 697125.63 -5194.06 693351.25 7548.75 7548.75
745,480.00 745480 691931.56 53548.44 53548.44
total 128313.75
mad 25662.75
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


688,560.00 688560 688560 0 688560 0.00 0
705,380.00 705380 696970.00 4205.00 688560 16820.00 16820
734,000.00 734000 717587.50 12411.25 701175 32825.00 32825
690,560.00 690560 710279.38 2551.56 729998.75 -39438.75 39438.75
700,900.00 700900 706865.47 -431.17 712830.94 -11930.94 11930.94
745,480.00 745480 725957.15 9330.25 706434.30 39045.70 39045.70
718,000.00 718000 735287.40 -17287.40 17287.40
total 140060.39
mad 28012.07813
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


705,380.00 705380 705380 0 705380 0.00 0
734,000.00 734000 719690.00 7155.00 705380 28620.00 28620
690,560.00 690560 708702.50 -1916.25 726845 -36285.00 36285
700,900.00 700900 703843.13 -3387.81 706786.25 -5886.25 5886.25
745,480.00 745480 722967.66 7868.36 700455.31 45024.69 45024.69
718,000.00 718000 724418.01 4659.36 730836.02 -12836.02 12836.02
748,560.00 748560 729077.36 19482.64 19482.64
total 128651.95
mad 25730.39063
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


734,000.00 734000 734000 0 734000 0.00 0
690,560.00 690560 712280.00 -10860.00 734000 -43440.00 43440
700,900.00 700900 701160.00 -10990.00 701420 -520.00 520
745,480.00 745480 717825.00 2837.50 690170.00 55310.00 55310.00
718,000.00 718000 719331.25 2171.88 720662.50 -2662.50 2662.50
748,560.00 748560 735031.56 8936.09 721503.13 27056.88 27056.88
718,280.00 718280 743967.66 -25687.66 25687.66
total 128989.38
mad 25797.875
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


690,560.00 690560 690560 0 690560 0.00 0
700,900.00 700900 695730.00 2585.00 690560 10340.00 10340
745,480.00 745480 721897.50 14376.25 698315 47165.00 47165
718,000.00 718000 727136.88 9807.81 736273.75 -18273.75 18273.75
748,560.00 748560 742752.34 12711.64 736944.69 11615.31 11615.31
718,280.00 718280 736871.99 3415.64 755463.98 -37183.98 37183.98
708,720.00 708720 740287.64 -31567.64 31567.64
total 124578.05
mad 24915.60938
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


700,900.00 700900 700900 0 700900 0.00 0
745,480.00 745480 723190.00 11145.00 700900 44580.00 44580
718,000.00 718000 726167.50 7061.25 734335 -16335.00 16335
748,560.00 748560 740894.38 10894.06 733228.75 15331.25 15331.25
718,280.00 718280 735034.22 2516.95 751788.44 -33508.44 33508.44
708,720.00 708720 723135.59 -4690.84 737551.17 -28831.17 28831.17
666,776.00 666776 718444.75 -51668.75 51668.75
total 138585.86
mad 27717.17188
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


745,480.00 745480 745480 0 745480 0.00 0
718,000.00 718000 731740.00 -6870.00 745480 -27480.00 27480
748,560.00 748560 736715.00 -947.50 724870 23690.00 23690
718,280.00 718280 727023.75 -5319.38 735767.50 -17487.50 17487.50
708,720.00 708720 715212.19 -8565.47 721704.38 -12984.38 12984.38
666,776.00 666776 686711.36 -18533.15 706646.72 -39870.72 39870.72
700,079.00 700079 668178.21 31900.79 31900.79
total 121512.59
mad 24302.51875
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


718,000.00 718000 718000 0 718000 0.00 0
748,560.00 748560 733280.00 7640.00 718000 30560.00 30560
718,280.00 718280 729600.00 1980.00 740920 -22640.00 22640
708,720.00 708720 720150.00 -3735.00 731580.00 -22860.00 22860.00
666,776.00 666776 691595.50 -16144.75 716415.00 -49639.00 49639.00
700,079.00 700079 687764.88 -9987.69 675450.75 24628.25 24628.25
790,646.00 790646 677777.19 112868.81 112868.81
total 150327.25
mad 30065.45
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


748,560.00 748560 748560 0 748560 0.00 0
718,280.00 718280 733420.00 -7570.00 748560 -30280.00 30280
708,720.00 708720 717285.00 -11852.50 725850 -17130.00 17130
666,776.00 666776 686104.25 -21516.63 705432.50 -38656.50 38656.50
700,079.00 700079 682333.31 -12643.78 664587.63 35491.38 35491.38
790,646.00 790646 730167.77 17595.34 669689.53 120956.47 120956.47
654,346.00 654346 747763.10 -93417.10 93417.10
total 242514.34
mad 48502.86875
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


718,280.00 718280 718280 0 718280 0.00 0
708,720.00 708720 713500.00 -2390.00 718280 -9560.00 9560
666,776.00 666776 688943.00 -13473.50 711110 -44334.00 44334
700,079.00 700079 687774.25 -7321.13 675469.50 24609.50 24609.50
790,646.00 790646 735549.56 20227.09 680453.13 110192.88 110192.88
654,346.00 654346 705061.33 -5130.57 755776.66 -101430.66 101430.66
734,778.00 734778 699930.76 34847.24 34847.24
total 290127.03
mad 58025.40625
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


708,720.00 708720 708720 0 708720 0.00 0
666,776.00 666776 687748.00 -10486.00 708720 -41944.00 41944
700,079.00 700079 688670.50 -4781.75 677262 22817.00 22817
790,646.00 790646 737267.38 21907.56 683888.75 106757.25 106757.25
654,346.00 654346 706760.47 -4299.67 759174.94 -104828.94 104828.94
734,778.00 734778 718619.40 3779.63 702460.80 32317.20 32317.20
687,656.00 687656 722399.03 -34743.03 34743.03
total 308664.39
mad 61732.87813
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


666,776.00 666776 666776 0 666776 0.00 0
700,079.00 700079 683427.50 8325.75 666776 33303.00 33303
790,646.00 790646 741199.63 33048.94 691753.25 98892.75 98892.75
654,346.00 654346 714297.28 3073.30 774248.56 -119902.56 119902.56
734,778.00 734778 726074.29 7425.15 717370.58 17407.42 17407.42
687,656.00 687656 710577.72 -4035.71 733499.44 -45843.44 45843.44
635,678.00 635678 706542.01 -70864.01 70864.01
total 315349.18
mad 63069.83516
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


700,079.00 700079 700079 0 700079 0.00 0
790,646.00 790646 745362.50 22641.75 700079 90567.00 90567
654,346.00 654346 711175.13 -5772.81 768004.25 -113658.25 113658.25
734,778.00 734778 720090.16 1571.11 705402.31 29375.69 29375.69
687,656.00 687656 704658.63 -6930.21 721661.27 -34005.27 34005.27
635,678.00 635678 666703.21 -22442.81 697728.43 -62050.43 62050.43
654,788.00 654788 644260.40 10527.60 10527.60
total 329656.63
mad 65931.32578
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


790,646.00 790646 790646 0 790646 0.00 0
654,346.00 654346 722496.00 -34075.00 790646 -136300.00 136300
734,778.00 734778 711599.50 -22485.75 688421 46357.00 46357
687,656.00 687656 688384.88 -22850.19 689113.75 -1457.75 1457.75
635,678.00 635678 650606.34 -30314.36 665534.69 -29856.69 29856.69
654,788.00 654788 637539.99 -21690.36 620291.98 34496.02 34496.02
690,807.00 690807 615849.64 74957.36 74957.36
total 248467.45
mad 49693.49063
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


654,346.00 654346 654346 0 654346 0.00 0
734,778.00 734778 694562.00 20108.00 654346 80432.00 80432
687,656.00 687656 701163.00 13354.50 714670 -27014.00 27014
635,678.00 635678 675097.75 -6355.38 714517.50 -78839.50 78839.50
654,788.00 654788 661765.19 -9843.97 668742.38 -13954.38 13954.38
690,807.00 690807 671364.11 -122.52 651921.22 38885.78 38885.78
656,556.00 656556 671241.59 -14685.59 14685.59
total 239125.66
mad 47825.13125
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


734,778.00 734778 734778 0 734778 0.00 0
687,656.00 687656 711217.00 -11780.50 734778 -47122.00 47122
635,678.00 635678 667557.25 -27720.13 699436.5 -63758.50 63758.5
654,788.00 654788 647312.56 -23982.41 639837.13 14950.88 14950.88
690,807.00 690807 657068.58 -7113.20 623330.16 67476.84 67476.84
656,556.00 656556 653255.69 -5463.04 649955.38 6600.62 6600.62
676,655.00 676655 647792.65 28862.35 28862.35
total 199908.84
mad 39981.76719
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


687,656.00 687656 687656 0 687656 0.00 0
635,678.00 635678 661667.00 -12994.50 687656 -51978.00 51978
654,788.00 654788 651730.25 -11465.63 648672.5 6115.50 6115.5
690,807.00 690807 665535.81 1169.97 640264.63 50542.38 50542.38
656,556.00 656556 661630.89 -1367.48 666705.78 -10149.78 10149.78
676,655.00 676655 668459.21 2730.42 660263.41 16391.59 16391.59
738,900.00 738900 671189.63 67710.37 67710.37
total 135177.24
mad 27035.44844
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


635,678.00 635678 635678 0 635678 0.00 0
654,788.00 654788 645233.00 4777.50 635678 19110.00 19110
690,807.00 690807 670408.75 14976.63 650010.5 40796.50 40796.5
656,556.00 656556 670970.69 7769.28 685385.38 -28829.38 28829.38
676,655.00 676655 677697.48 7248.04 678739.97 -2084.97 2084.97
738,900.00 738900 711922.76 20736.66 684945.52 53954.48 53954.48
732659.42
total 144775.32
mad 28955.06406
mape
alpha 0.6
Dengan Data Acuan 6 Bulan

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jan 2016 706,480.00 706,480.00
0.022586 feb 2016 690,876.00 690,876.00
0.021286 mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00
0.022139 apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00
0.01148 mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00
0.037821 jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00
0.074949 jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00
0.115311 total
mad
2.306% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


feb 2016 690,876.00 690,876.00
0.026782 mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00
0.026397 apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00
0.003454 mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00
0.030117 jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00
0.069578 jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00
0.024499 ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00
0.156328 total
mad
3.127% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00
0.033316 apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00
0.008556 mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00
0.039606 jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00
0.078367 jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00
0.030942 ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00
0.321155 sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00
0.190787 total
mad
3.816% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00
0.016745 mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00
0.033646 jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00
0.06767 jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00
0.020523 ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00
0.331249 sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00
0.0551 okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00
0.469833 total
mad
9.397% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00
0.029583 jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00
0.070523 jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00
0.025908 ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00
0.324318 sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00
0.050265 okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00
0.081217 nov 2016 678,976.00 678,976.00
0.500597 total
mad
10.012% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00
0.063597 jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00
0.031022 ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00
0.311563 sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00
0.038444 okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00
0.089519 nov 2016 678,976.00 678,976.00
0.088168 des 2016 690,000.00 690,000.00
0.534145 total
mad
10.683% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
0.015367 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
0.296284 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
0.011007 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.11512 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.106924 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.118549 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.544701 total
mad
10.894% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
0.301283 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
0.007494 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.121471 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.113106 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.12287 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.050027 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.666224 total
mad
13.324% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
0.063076 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.071543 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.018939 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.035432 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.014341 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.129962 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.20333 total
mad
4.067% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.056668 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.029917 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.055185 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.004978 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.114434 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.040721 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.261182 total
mad
5.224% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.015977 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.065 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.023579 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.094571 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.026286 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.028858 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.225413 total
mad
4.508% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.06125 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.02636 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.088818 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.02073 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.032833 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.050139 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.229991 total
mad
4.600% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.011219 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.076558 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.002206 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.054636 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.032886 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.007621 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.177506 total
mad
3.550% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.079586 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.004423 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.058719 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.028593 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.01077 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.071831 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.182092 total
mad
3.642% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.023845 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.044721 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.057111 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.017022 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.052377 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.024077 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.195076 total
mad
3.902% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.038992 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.052544 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.008398 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.060397 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.017877 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.026027 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.178209 total
mad
3.564% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.062905 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.000742 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.074194 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.003708 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.036145 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.035763 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.177695 total
mad
3.554% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.014752 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.063268 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.025451 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.015517 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.051768 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.044542 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.170756 total
mad
3.415% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.0598 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.022751 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.020481 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.046651 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.040681 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.07749 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.190364 total
mad
3.807% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.038273 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.031647 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.024346 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.018321 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.059796 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.045567 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.172384 total
mad
3.448% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.040825 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.03152 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.032255 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.074446 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.035179 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.142755 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.214226 total
mad
4.285% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.042156 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.02417 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.057975 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.050696 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.152984 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.142764 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.327982 total
mad
6.560% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.013489 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.06649 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.035152 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.139371 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.155011 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.047426 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.409513 total
mad
8.190% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.062906 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.032592 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.135025 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.160204 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.043982 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.050524 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.434709 total
mad
8.694% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.04757 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.125078 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.18324 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.023691 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.066666 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.111478 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.446246 total
mad
8.925% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.114548 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.173697 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.039979 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.049451 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.097613 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.016078 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.475289 total
mad
9.506% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.2083 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.06309 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.00212 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.046968 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.052683 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.108507 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.37316 total
mad
7.463% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.109464 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.039284 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.124024 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.021311 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.05629 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.022368 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
0.350374 total
mad
7.007% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.068526 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.1003 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.022833 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.097678 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.010053 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
0.042654 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
0.29939 total
mad
5.988% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.081768 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.00934 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.073164 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.015459 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
0.024224 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
0.091637 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
0.203955 total
mad
4.079% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.029185 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.059056 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.04391 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
0.003081 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
0.07302 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
jan 2019
0.208253 total
mad
4.165% mape
level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
706480 0 706480 0.00 0
697117.60 -5617.44 706480 -15604.00 15604 0.022586
702532.86 1002.18 691500.16 18387.84 18387.84 0.025902
693614.02 -4950.43 703535.05 -16535.05 16535.05 0.024068
694685.43 -1337.32 688663.58 10036.42 10036.42 0.014364
709339.24 8257.36 693348.11 26651.89 26651.89 0.037017
717596.60 51303.40 51303.40 0.066723
l 87215.19 0.123938
17443.0386
e 2.479%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690876 0 690876 0.00 0
702283.20 6844.32 690876 19012.00 19012 0.026782
695851.01 -1121.59 709127.52 -22127.52 22127.52 0.032209
697111.77 307.82 694729.42 3970.58 3970.58 0.005683
710967.84 8436.77 697419.59 22580.41 22580.41 0.031362
749101.84 26255.11 719404.60 49495.40 49495.40 0.064372
775356.95 5543.05 5543.05 0.007098
l 117185.90 0.160407
23437.1809
e 3.208%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


709888 0 709888 0.00 0
696155.20 -8239.68 709888 -22888.00 22888 0.033316
694386.21 -4357.27 687915.52 10784.48 10784.48 0.015435
708011.58 6432.31 690028.94 29971.06 29971.06 0.041626
747117.56 26036.51 714443.89 54456.11 54456.11 0.070823
777801.63 28825.05 773154.07 7745.93 7745.93 0.009919
806626.68 -206526.68 206526.68 0.344154
l 125845.58 0.17112
25169.1158
e 3.422%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


687000 0 687000 0.00 0
694020.00 4212.00 687000 11700.00 11700 0.016745
711292.80 12048.48 698232 21768.00 21768 0.030233
750676.51 28449.62 723341.28 45558.72 45558.72 0.059252
780190.45 29088.21 779126.13 1773.87 1773.87 0.002272
683771.47 -46216.11 809278.66 -209178.66 209178.66 0.348573
637555.36 2944.64 2944.64 0.004597
l 289979.25 0.457075
57995.8506
e 9.142%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


698700 0 698700 0.00 0
711480.00 7668.00 698700 21300.00 21300 0.029583
748999.20 25578.72 719148 49752.00 49752 0.064705
778371.17 27854.67 774577.92 6322.08 6322.08 0.008096
682550.33 -46350.63 806225.84 -206125.84 206125.84 0.343486
638779.88 -44802.53 636199.70 4300.30 4300.30 0.006714
593977.36 84998.64 84998.64 0.125187
l 287800.21 0.452584
57560.0429
e 9.052%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


720000 0 720000 0.00 0
749340.00 17604.00 720000 48900.00 48900 0.063597
775317.60 22628.16 766944 13956.00 13956 0.017872
679238.30 -48596.31 797945.76 -197845.76 197845.76 0.329688
636556.80 -45047.43 630641.99 9858.01 9858.01 0.015391
643989.35 -13559.44 591509.37 87466.63 87466.63 0.128821
630429.90 59570.10 59570.10 0.086333
l 358026.40 0.55537
71605.2807
e 11.107%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


768900 0 768900 0.00 0
776100.00 4320.00 768900 12000.00 12000 0.015367
672228.00 -60595.20 780420 -180320.00 180320 0.300483
628953.12 -50203.01 611632.80 28867.20 28867.20 0.04507
638885.64 -14121.69 578750.11 100225.89 100225.89 0.147613
663905.58 9363.29 624763.96 65236.04 65236.04 0.094545
673268.87 61751.13 61751.13 0.084013
l 386649.13 0.603078
77329.8263
e 12.062%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


780900 0 780900 0.00 0
672420.00 -65088.00 780900 -180800.00 180800 0.301283
627232.80 -53147.52 607332 33168.00 33168 0.051785
637019.71 -15386.86 574085.28 104890.72 104890.72 0.154484
662653.14 9225.31 621632.85 68367.15 68367.15 0.099083
709763.38 31956.27 671878.45 63141.55 63141.55 0.085905
741719.65 1640.35 1640.35 0.002207
l 450367.42 0.692539
90073.4831
e 13.851%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


600100 0 600100 0.00 0
624340.00 14544.00 600100 40400.00 40400 0.063076
662939.20 28977.12 638884 40092.00 40092 0.059048
690766.53 28287.24 691916.32 -1916.32 1916.32 0.002777
728633.51 34035.09 719053.77 15966.23 15966.23 0.021722
751083.44 27083.99 762668.60 -19308.60 19308.60 0.025975
778167.43 -89607.43 89607.43 0.130137
l 117683.14 0.172598
23536.6286
e 3.452%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


640500 0 640500 0.00 0
663585.60 13851.36 640500 38476.00 38476 0.056668
684974.78 18374.05 677436.96 12563.04 12563.04 0.018207
722351.54 29775.67 703348.84 31671.16 31671.16 0.043089
746866.88 26619.48 752127.21 -8767.21 8767.21 0.011794
722530.54 -3954.01 773486.36 -84926.36 84926.36 0.123339
718576.53 -13196.53 13196.53 0.018708
l 176403.77 0.253097
35280.7541
e 5.062%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


678976 0 678976 0.00 0
685590.40 3968.64 678976 11024.00 11024 0.015977
716835.62 20334.59 689559.04 45460.96 45460.96 0.06185
740884.08 22562.91 737170.20 6189.80 6189.80 0.008327
718514.80 -4396.40 763446.99 -74886.99 74886.99 0.108759
708875.36 -7542.23 714118.39 -8738.39 8738.39 0.012388
701333.13 32666.87 32666.87 0.044505
l 146300.14 0.207301
29260.029
e 4.146%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690000 0 690000 0.00 0
717012.00 16207.20 690000 45020.00 45020 0.06125
739303.68 19857.89 733219.2 10140.80 10140.8 0.013642
716800.63 -5558.68 759161.57 -70601.57 70601.57 0.102535
707724.78 -7668.98 711241.95 -5861.95 5861.95 0.00831
720422.32 4550.93 700055.80 33944.20 33944.20 0.046246
724973.25 -34413.25 34413.25 0.049834
l 165568.52 0.231983
33113.7034
e 4.640%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


735020 0 735020 0.00 0
740024.00 3002.40 735020 8340.00 8340 0.011219
710346.56 -16605.50 743026.4 -54466.40 54466.4 0.079102
700724.42 -12415.48 693741.06 11638.94 11638.94 0.0165
715723.58 4033.30 688308.94 45691.06 45691.06 0.062249
702238.75 -6477.58 719756.87 -29196.87 29196.87 0.04228
695761.17 5138.83 5138.83 0.007332
l 149333.28 0.211351
29866.6558
e 4.227%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


743360 0 743360 0.00 0
710480.00 -19728.00 743360 -54800.00 54800 0.079586
699528.80 -14461.92 690752 14628.00 14628 0.020738
714426.75 3154.00 685066.88 48933.12 48933.12 0.066666
701368.30 -6573.47 717580.76 -27020.76 27020.76 0.039129
698457.93 -4375.61 694794.83 6105.17 6105.17 0.00871
694082.32 51397.68 51397.68 0.068946
l 151487.04 0.21483
30297.4084
e 4.297%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


688560 0 688560 0.00 0
698652.00 6055.20 688560 16820.00 16820 0.023845
722282.88 16600.61 704707.2 29292.80 29292.8 0.039908
709889.40 -795.85 738883.49 -48323.49 48323.49 0.069977
704177.42 -3745.52 709093.55 -8193.55 8193.55 0.01169
727460.76 12471.79 700431.89 45048.11 45048.11 0.060428
739932.55 -21932.55 21932.55 0.030547
l 147677.94 0.205849
29535.5883
e 4.117%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


705380 0 705380 0.00 0
722552.00 10303.20 705380 28620.00 28620 0.038992
707478.08 -4923.07 732855.2 -42295.20 42295.2 0.061248
701562.00 -5518.87 702555.01 -1655.01 1655.01 0.002361
725705.25 12278.40 696043.13 49436.87 49436.87 0.066315
725993.46 5084.28 737983.65 -19983.65 19983.65 0.027832
731077.74 17482.26 17482.26 0.023355
l 141990.73 0.196749
28398.146
e 3.935%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


734000 0 734000 0.00 0
707936.00 -15638.40 734000 -43440.00 43440 0.062905
697459.04 -12541.54 692297.6 8602.40 8602.4 0.012273
721255.00 9260.96 684917.50 60562.50 60562.50 0.08124
723006.39 4755.22 730515.96 -12515.96 12515.96 0.017432
740240.64 12242.64 727761.60 20798.40 20798.40 0.027785
752483.28 -34203.28 34203.28 0.047618
l 145919.26 0.201635
29183.8518
e 4.033%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690560 0 690560 0.00 0
696764.00 3722.40 690560 10340.00 10340 0.014752
727482.56 19920.10 700486.4 44993.60 44993.6 0.060355
729761.06 9335.14 747402.66 -29402.66 29402.66 0.040951
744774.48 12742.11 739096.20 9463.80 9463.80 0.012643
733974.64 -1383.06 757516.59 -39236.59 39236.59 0.054626
732591.57 -23871.57 23871.57 0.033683
l 133436.64 0.183327
26687.3283
e 3.667%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


700900 0 700900 0.00 0
727648.00 16048.80 700900 44580.00 44580 0.0598
728278.72 6797.95 743696.8 -25696.80 25696.8 0.035789
743166.67 11651.95 735076.67 13483.33 13483.33 0.018012
732895.45 -1501.95 754818.62 -36538.62 36538.62 0.05087
717789.40 -9664.41 731393.49 -22673.49 22673.49 0.031992
708124.99 -41348.99 41348.99 0.062013
l 142972.24 0.196464
28594.4483
e 3.929%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


745480 0 745480 0.00 0
728992.00 -9892.80 745480 -27480.00 27480 0.038273
736775.68 713.09 719099.2 29460.80 29460.8 0.039357
725963.51 -6202.07 737488.77 -19208.77 19208.77 0.026743
713136.58 -10176.99 719761.44 -11041.44 11041.44 0.015579
681249.44 -23203.08 702959.59 -36183.59 36183.59 0.054266
658046.36 42032.64 42032.64 0.06004
l 123374.60 0.174218
24674.9192
e 3.484%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718000 0 718000 0.00 0
736336.00 11001.60 718000 30560.00 30560 0.040825
729903.04 540.86 747337.6 -29057.60 29057.6 0.040454
717409.56 -7279.74 730443.90 -21723.90 21723.90 0.030652
684117.53 -22887.12 710129.82 -43353.82 43353.82 0.06502
684539.56 -8901.62 661230.41 38848.59 38848.59 0.055492
675637.94 115008.06 115008.06 0.145461
l 163543.91 0.232444
32708.7826
e 4.649%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


748560 0 748560 0.00 0
730392.00 -10900.80 748560 -30280.00 30280 0.042156
713028.48 -14778.43 719491.2 -10771.20 10771.2 0.015198
679365.62 -26109.09 698250.05 -31474.05 31474.05 0.047203
681350.01 -9253.00 653256.53 46822.47 46822.47 0.066882
743226.40 33424.64 672097.01 118548.99 118548.99 0.149939
776651.04 -122305.04 122305.04 0.186912
l 237896.71 0.321379
47579.3412
e 6.428%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718280 0 718280 0.00 0
712544.00 -3441.60 718280 -9560.00 9560 0.013489
683706.56 -18679.10 709102.4 -42326.40 42326.4 0.063479
686058.38 -6060.55 665027.46 35051.54 35051.54 0.050068
746386.73 33772.79 679997.83 110648.17 110648.17 0.139947
704671.41 -11520.08 780159.53 -125813.53 125813.53 0.192274
693151.33 41626.67 41626.67 0.056652
l 323399.63 0.459257
64679.927
e 9.185%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


708720 0 708720 0.00 0
683553.60 -15099.84 708720 -41944.00 41944 0.062906
687428.90 -3714.75 668453.76 31625.24 31625.24 0.045174
747873.26 34780.71 683714.15 106931.85 106931.85 0.135246
705669.19 -11410.16 782653.97 -128307.97 128307.97 0.196086
718570.41 3176.67 694259.03 40518.97 40518.97 0.055145
721747.08 -34091.08 34091.08 0.049576
l 349328.03 0.494556
69865.6062
e 9.891%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


666776 0 666776 0.00 0
686757.80 11989.08 666776 33303.00 33303 0.04757
753886.35 45072.76 698746.88 91899.12 91899.12 0.116233
712191.25 -6987.96 798959.12 -144613.12 144613.12 0.221004
722948.12 3658.94 705203.29 29574.71 29574.71 0.04025
703236.42 -10363.44 726607.05 -38951.05 38951.05 0.056643
692872.98 -57194.98 57194.98 0.089975
l 338341.00 0.4817
67668.2001
e 9.634%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


700079 0 700079 0.00 0
754419.20 32604.12 700079 90567.00 90567 0.114548
707416.93 -15159.72 787023.32 -132677.32 132677.32 0.202763
717769.69 147.77 692257.21 42520.79 42520.79 0.057869
699760.58 -10746.36 717917.45 -30261.45 30261.45 0.044007
657012.49 -29947.40 689014.23 -53336.23 53336.23 0.083904
627065.09 27722.91 27722.91 0.042339
l 349362.79 0.503091
69872.5574
e 10.062%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


790646 0 790646 0.00 0
708866.00 -49068.00 790646 -136300.00 136300 0.2083
704786.00 -22075.20 659798 74980.00 74980 0.102044
685677.92 -20294.93 682710.80 4945.20 4945.20 0.007191
647560.00 -30988.73 665382.99 -29704.99 29704.99 0.04673
639501.31 -17230.70 616571.27 38216.73 38216.73 0.058365
622270.61 68536.39 68536.39 0.099212
l 284146.92 0.42263
56829.3841
e 8.453%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


654346 0 654346 0.00 0
702605.20 28955.52 654346 80432.00 80432 0.109464
705217.89 13149.82 731560.72 -43904.72 43904.72 0.063847
668753.88 -16618.47 718367.71 -82689.71 82689.71 0.130081
653726.96 -15663.54 652135.41 2652.59 2652.59 0.004051
669709.57 3324.15 638063.42 52743.58 52743.58 0.076351
673033.72 -16477.72 16477.72 0.025097
l 262422.60 0.383794
52484.5195
e 7.676%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


734778 0 734778 0.00 0
706504.80 -16963.92 734778 -47122.00 47122 0.068526
657223.15 -36354.56 689540.88 -53862.88 53862.88 0.084733
641220.24 -24143.57 620868.60 33919.40 33919.40 0.051802
661314.87 2399.35 617076.67 73730.33 73730.33 0.106731
659419.29 -177.61 663714.22 -7158.22 7158.22 0.010903
659241.68 17413.32 17413.32 0.025734
l 215792.83 0.322694
43158.5667
e 6.454%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


687656 0 687656 0.00 0
656469.20 -18712.08 687656 -51978.00 51978 0.081768
647975.65 -12580.96 637757.12 17030.88 17030.88 0.02601
668642.07 7367.47 635394.68 55412.32 55412.32 0.080214
664337.42 364.19 676009.54 -19453.54 19453.54 0.02963
671873.64 4667.41 664701.61 11953.39 11953.39 0.017665
676541.06 62358.94 62358.94 0.084394
l 155828.13 0.235287
31165.6255
e 4.706%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


635678 0 635678 0.00 0
647144.00 6879.60 635678 19110.00 19110 0.029185
676093.64 20121.62 654023.6 36783.40 36783.4 0.053247
672419.71 5844.29 696215.26 -39659.26 39659.26 0.060405
677298.60 5265.05 678263.99 -1608.99 1608.99 0.002378
716365.46 25546.14 682563.65 56336.35 56336.35 0.076244
741911.60
l 153498.01 0.221458
30699.602
e 4.429%
alpha 0.7
Dengan Data Acuan 6 Bulan

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2016 706,480.00 706,480.00 706480 0
feb 2016 690,876.00 690,876.00 695557.20 -7645.96
mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00 703294.97 3122.65
apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 692825.29 -6391.98
mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 695019.99 -381.30
jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 712391.61 12045.74
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


feb 2016 690,876.00 690,876.00 690876 0
mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00 704184.40 9315.88
apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 694950.08 -3669.26
mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 696474.25 -33.86
jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 712932.12 11510.35
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 755562.74 33294.54
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mar 2016 709,888.00 709,888.00 709888 0
apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 693866.40 -11215.12
mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 693885.38 -3351.25
jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 711160.24 11087.03
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 754904.18 33946.87
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 783285.31 30050.85
sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


apr 2016 687,000.00 687,000.00 687000 0
mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 695190.00 5733.00
jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 714276.90 15080.73
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 757037.29 34456.49
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 784078.13 29265.54
sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00 664073.10 -75223.86
okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mei 2016 698,700.00 698,700.00 698700 0
jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 713610.00 10437.00
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 755444.10 32414.97
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 782987.72 29005.03
sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00 663667.82 -74822.42
okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00 625003.62 -49511.67
nov 2016 678,976.00 678,976.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jun 2016 720,000.00 720,000.00 720000 0
jul 2016 768,900.00 768,900.00 754230.00 23961.00
ags 2016 780,900.00 780,900.00 780087.30 25288.41
sep 2016 600,100.00 600,100.00 661682.71 -75296.69
okt 2016 640,500.00 640,500.00 624265.81 -48780.84
nov 2016 678,976.00 678,976.00 647928.69 1929.77
des 2016 690,000.00 690,000.00
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 768900 0
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 777300.00 5880.00
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 655024.00 -83829.20
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 619708.44 -49869.65
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 646234.84 3607.58
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 677952.73 23284.80
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780900 0
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 654340.00 -88592.00
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 618074.40 -51963.52
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 645116.46 3340.39
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 677537.06 23696.53
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 724884.08 40251.87
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 600100 0
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 628380.00 19796.00
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 669736.00 34888.00
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 694387.20 27722.24
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731146.83 34048.41
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 749910.57 23349.14
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 640500 0
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 667433.20 18853.24
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688885.93 20672.88
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 727381.64 33148.86
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 748511.15 24735.31
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 713965.94 -16761.05
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 678976 0
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 686692.80 5401.76
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 722142.37 26435.23
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 744925.28 23878.60
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 712633.16 -15440.90
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 702923.68 -11428.91
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690000 0
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 721514.00 22059.80
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 743424.14 21955.04
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 711605.75 -15686.36
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 702541.82 -11050.66
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 721247.35 9778.67
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 735020 0
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 740858.00 4086.60
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705475.38 -23541.85
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 698346.06 -12053.08
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 719687.89 11323.36
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 702695.38 -8497.75
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 743360 0
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 705000.00 -26852.00
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 697210.40 -13508.32
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 718910.62 11137.66
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 702406.49 -8211.60
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 698888.47 -4926.09
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 688560 0
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 700334.00 8241.80
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 726372.74 20699.66
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 707513.72 -6991.42
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 700786.69 -6806.35
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 730030.10 18428.49
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 705380 0
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 725414.00 14023.80
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 705223.34 -9926.32
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 699219.11 -7180.86
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 729447.47 19005.60
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 727135.92 4083.59
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 734000 0
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 703592.00 -21285.60
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 695321.92 -12174.74
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 726780.16 18368.34
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 726144.55 5065.58
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 743355.04 13567.02
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 690560 0
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697798.00 5066.60
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 732695.38 25948.15
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 730193.06 6032.82
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 744859.76 12076.54
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 729876.89 -6865.05
des 2017 708,720.00 708720
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 700900 0
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 732106.00 21844.20
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 728785.06 4228.60
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 743896.10 11846.31
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 729518.72 -6510.27
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 713006.54 -13511.61
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 745480 0
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 726244.00 -13465.20
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 737825.64 4067.59
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 725363.97 -7502.89
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 711462.32 -11982.02
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 676587.29 -28007.13
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 718000 0
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 739392.00 14974.40
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 729105.92 -2707.94
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 714023.40 -11370.15
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 677539.17 -28950.00
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 684632.05 -3719.98
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 748560 0
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 727364.00 -14837.20
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709862.04 -16702.53
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 674691.05 -29630.45
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 683573.48 -2671.44
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 757722.81 51103.10
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 718280 0
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 711588.00 -4684.40
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 678814.28 -24346.92
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 686395.51 -1997.22
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 758771.69 50064.16
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 700692.95 -25635.86
may 2018 734,778.00 734778
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708720 0
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 679359.20 -20552.56
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687697.29 -329.10
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 759662.66 50277.02
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 701024.10 -25963.88
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 716862.67 3297.83
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 666776 0
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 690088.10 16318.47
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 765374.17 57595.79
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 704933.19 -25029.95
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 718315.57 1858.68
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 697411.48 -14075.26
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 700079 0
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 763475.90 44377.83
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 700398.32 -30840.96
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 715211.81 1117.16
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 696257.89 -12932.60
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 649972.19 -36279.77
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 790646 0
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 695236.00 -66787.00
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 702879.30 -14685.79
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 687817.25 -14949.17
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 646835.02 -33172.31
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 642450.41 -13020.92
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 654346 0
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 710648.40 39411.68
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 706377.22 8833.68
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 659537.87 -30137.44
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 647171.73 -17697.53
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 672407.16 12355.54
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


may 2018 734,778.00 734778 734778 0
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 701792.60 -23089.78
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 648585.45 -44171.94
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 639675.65 -19488.44
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 669621.06 15115.26
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 665010.10 1306.90
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 687656 0
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 651271.40 -25469.22
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 646092.25 -11266.17
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 674012.73 16164.48
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 666642.36 -309.91
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 673558.24 4748.14
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 635678 0
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 649055.00 9363.90
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 681090.57 25234.07
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 671486.59 847.44
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 675358.71 2964.71
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 720727.03 32647.24
jan 2019
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.8
Dengan Data Acuan 6 Bulan

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


706480 0.00 0 jan 2016
706480 -15604.00 15604 0.022586 feb 2016
687911.24 21976.76 21976.76 0.030958 mar 2016
706417.62 -19417.62 19417.62 0.028264 apr 2016
686433.30 12266.70 12266.70 0.017556 mei 2016
694638.69 25361.31 25361.31 0.035224 jun 2016
724437.35 44462.65 44462.65 0.057826 jul 2016
94626.39 0.134589
18925.27838
2.692%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


690876 0.00 0 feb 2016
690876 19012.00 19012 0.026782 mar 2016
713500.28 -26500.28 26500.28 0.038574 apr 2016
691280.83 7419.17 7419.17 0.010619 mei 2016
696440.39 23559.61 23559.61 0.032722 jun 2016
724442.46 44457.54 44457.54 0.05782 jul 2016
788857.28 -7957.28 7957.28 0.01019 ags 2016
120948.60 0.166515
24189.72062
3.330%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


709888 0.00 0 mar 2016
709888 -22888.00 22888 0.033316 apr 2016
682651.28 16048.72 16048.72 0.022969 mei 2016
690534.14 29465.86 29465.86 0.040925 jun 2016
722247.27 46652.73 46652.73 0.060675 jul 2016
788851.05 -7951.05 7951.05 0.010182 ags 2016
813336.17 -213236.17 213236.17 0.355334 sep 2016
123006.36 0.168067
24601.27229
3.361%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


687000 0.00 0 apr 2016
687000 11700.00 11700 0.016745 mei 2016
700923 19077.00 19077 0.026496 jun 2016
729357.63 39542.37 39542.37 0.051427 jul 2016
791493.78 -10593.78 10593.78 0.013566 ags 2016
813343.67 -213243.67 213243.67 0.355347 sep 2016
588849.24 51650.76 51650.76 0.080641 okt 2016
294156.82 0.463581
58831.36467
9.272%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


698700 0.00 0 mei 2016
698700 21300.00 21300 0.029583 jun 2016
724047 44853.00 44853 0.058334 jul 2016
787859.07 -6959.07 6959.07 0.008912 ags 2016
811992.75 -211892.75 211892.75 0.353096 sep 2016
588845.40 51654.60 51654.60 0.080647 okt 2016
575491.95 103484.05 103484.05 0.152412 nov 2016
336659.41 0.530572
67331.88257
10.611%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


720000 0.00 0 jun 2016
720000 48900.00 48900 0.063597 jul 2016
778191 2709.00 2709 0.003469 ags 2016
805375.71 -205275.71 205275.71 0.342069 sep 2016
586386.03 54113.97 54113.97 0.084487 okt 2016
575484.97 103491.03 103491.03 0.152422 nov 2016
649858.46 40141.54 40141.54 0.058176 des 2016
414489.72 0.646045
82897.94351
12.921%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


768900 0.00 0 jul 2016
768900 12000.00 12000 0.015367 ags 2016
783180 -183080.00 183080 0.305082 sep 2016
571194.80 69305.20 69305.20 0.108205 okt 2016
569838.79 109137.21 109137.21 0.160738 nov 2016
649842.42 40157.58 40157.58 0.058199 des 2016
701237.52 33782.48 33782.48 0.045961 jan 2017
413679.99 0.647592
82735.99874
12.952%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


780900 0.00 0 ags 2016
780900 -180800.00 180800 0.301283 sep 2016
565748 74752.00 74752 0.116709 okt 2016
566110.88 112865.12 112865.12 0.166228 nov 2016
648456.85 41543.15 41543.15 0.060207 des 2016
701233.59 33786.41 33786.41 0.045967 jan 2017
765135.95 -21775.95 21775.95 0.029294 feb 2017
443746.68 0.690394
88749.33609
13.808%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


600100 0.00 0 sep 2016
600100 40400.00 40400 0.063076 okt 2016
648176 30800.00 30800 0.045362 nov 2016
704624.00 -14624.00 14624.00 0.021194 des 2016
722109.44 12910.56 12910.56 0.017565 jan 2017
765195.25 -21835.25 21835.25 0.029374 feb 2017
773259.72 -84699.72 84699.72 0.12301 mar 2017
120569.81 0.176571
24113.96128
3.531%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


640500 0.00 0 okt 2016
640500 38476.00 38476 0.056668 nov 2016
686286.44 3713.56 3713.56 0.005382 des 2016
709558.82 25461.18 25461.18 0.03464 jan 2017
760530.51 -17170.51 17170.51 0.023099 feb 2017
773246.47 -84686.47 84686.47 0.122991 mar 2017
697204.89 8175.11 8175.11 0.01159 apr 2017
169507.72 0.242779
33901.5441
4.856%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


678976 0.00 0 nov 2016
678976 11024.00 11024 0.015977 des 2016
692094.56 42925.44 42925.44 0.0584 jan 2017
748577.59 -5217.59 5217.59 0.007019 feb 2017
768803.88 -80243.88 80243.88 0.116539 mar 2017
697192.27 8187.73 8187.73 0.011608 apr 2017
691494.77 42505.23 42505.23 0.057909 mei 2017
147598.65 0.209542
29519.72988
4.191%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


690000 0.00 0 des 2016
690000 45020.00 45020 0.06125 jan 2017
743573.8 -213.80 213.8 0.000288 feb 2017
765379.18 -76819.18 76819.18 0.111565 mar 2017
695919.39 9460.61 9460.61 0.013412 apr 2017
691491.16 42508.84 42508.84 0.057914 mei 2017
731026.02 -40466.02 40466.02 0.058599 jun 2017
174022.43 0.244429
34804.48559
4.889%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


735020 0.00 0 jan 2017
735020 8340.00 8340 0.011219 feb 2017
744944.6 -56384.60 56384.6 0.081888 mar 2017
681933.53 23446.47 23446.47 0.033239 apr 2017
686292.98 47707.02 47707.02 0.064996 mei 2017
731011.25 -40451.25 40451.25 0.058577 jun 2017
694197.62 6702.38 6702.38 0.009563 jul 2017
176329.35 0.24992
35265.87015
4.998%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


743360 0.00 0 feb 2017
743360 -54800.00 54800 0.079586 mar 2017
678148 27232.00 27232 0.038606 apr 2017
683702.08 50297.92 50297.92 0.068526 mei 2017
730048.28 -39488.28 39488.28 0.057183 jun 2017
694194.89 6705.11 6705.11 0.009566 jul 2017
693962.37 51517.63 51517.63 0.069107 ags 2017
178523.32 0.253468
35704.66362
5.069%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


688560 0.00 0 mar 2017
688560 16820.00 16820 0.023845 apr 2017
708575.8 25424.20 25424.2 0.034638 mei 2017
747072.40 -56512.40 56512.40 0.081836 jun 2017
700522.30 377.70 377.70 0.000539 jul 2017
693980.35 51499.65 51499.65 0.069083 ags 2017
748458.59 -30458.59 30458.59 0.042421 sep 2017
150633.95 0.20994
30126.79002
4.199%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


705380 0.00 0 apr 2017
705380 28620.00 28620 0.038992 mei 2017
739437.8 -48877.80 48877.8 0.07078 jun 2017
695297.02 5602.98 5602.98 0.007994 jul 2017
692038.24 53441.76 53441.76 0.071688 ags 2017
748453.07 -30453.07 30453.07 0.042414 sep 2017
731219.52 17340.48 17340.48 0.023165 okt 2017
166995.61 0.231867
33399.12203
4.637%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


734000 0.00 0 mei 2017
734000 -43440.00 43440 0.062905 jun 2017
682306.4 18593.60 18593.6 0.026528 jul 2017
683147.18 62332.82 62332.82 0.083614 ags 2017
745148.50 -27148.50 27148.50 0.037811 sep 2017
731210.13 17349.87 17349.87 0.023178 okt 2017
756922.05 -38642.05 38642.05 0.053798 nov 2017
168864.79 0.234037
33772.9572
4.681%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


690560 0.00 0 jun 2017
690560 10340.00 10340 0.014752 jul 2017
702864.6 42615.40 42615.4 0.057165 ags 2017
758643.53 -40643.53 40643.53 0.056607 sep 2017
736225.88 12334.12 12334.12 0.016477 okt 2017
756936.30 -38656.30 38656.30 0.053818 nov 2017
723011.84 -14291.84 14291.84 0.020166 des 2017
144589.35 0.198819
28917.87035
3.976%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


700900 0.00 0 jul 2017
700900 44580.00 44580 0.0598 ags 2017
753950.2 -35950.20 35950.2 0.05007 sep 2017
733013.66 15546.34 15546.34 0.020768 okt 2017
755742.41 -37462.41 37462.41 0.052156 nov 2017
723008.45 -14288.45 14288.45 0.020161 des 2017
699494.92 -32718.92 32718.92 0.04907 jan 2018
147827.39 0.202955
29565.47893
4.059%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


745480 0.00 0 ags 2017
745480 -27480.00 27480 0.038273 sep 2017
712778.8 35781.20 35781.2 0.0478 okt 2017
741893.23 -23613.23 23613.23 0.032875 nov 2017
717861.07 -9141.07 9141.07 0.012898 des 2017
699480.30 -32704.30 32704.30 0.049048 jan 2018
648580.16 51498.84 51498.84 0.073561 feb 2018
128719.80 0.180894
25743.96095
3.618%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


718000 0.00 0 sep 2017
718000 30560.00 30560 0.040825 okt 2017
754366.4 -36086.40 36086.4 0.05024 nov 2017
726397.98 -17677.98 17677.98 0.024944 des 2017
702653.25 -35877.25 35877.25 0.053807 jan 2018
648589.17 51489.83 51489.83 0.073549 feb 2018
680912.07 109733.93 109733.93 0.13879 mar 2018
171691.46 0.243364
34338.29123
4.867%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


748560 0.00 0 okt 2017
748560 -30280.00 30280 0.042156 nov 2017
712526.8 -3806.80 3806.8 0.005371 des 2017
693159.51 -26383.51 26383.51 0.039569 jan 2018
645060.60 55018.40 55018.40 0.078589 feb 2018
680902.04 109743.96 109743.96 0.138803 mar 2018
808825.92 -154479.92 154479.92 0.236083 apr 2018
225232.66 0.304488
45046.53234
6.090%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


718280 0.00 0 nov 2017
718280 -9560.00 9560 0.013489 des 2017
706903.6 -40127.60 40127.6 0.060182 jan 2018
654467.36 45611.64 45611.64 0.065152 feb 2018
684398.29 106247.71 106247.71 0.134381 mar 2018
808835.85 -154489.85 154489.85 0.236098 apr 2018
675057.09 59720.91 59720.91 0.081277 may 2018
356036.80 0.509302
71207.36048
10.186%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


708720 0.00 0 des 2017
708720 -41944.00 41944 0.062906 jan 2018
658806.64 41272.36 41272.36 0.058954 feb 2018
687368.19 103277.81 103277.81 0.130625 mar 2018
809939.68 -155593.68 155593.68 0.237785 apr 2018
675060.22 59717.78 59717.78 0.081273 may 2018
720160.50 -32504.50 32504.50 0.047269 jun 2018
401805.63 0.571542
80361.12549
11.431%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


666776 0.00 0 jan 2018
666776 33303.00 33303 0.04757 feb 2018
706406.57 84239.43 84239.43 0.106545 mar 2018
822969.96 -168623.96 168623.96 0.257698 apr 2018
679903.24 54874.76 54874.76 0.074682 may 2018
720174.25 -32518.25 32518.25 0.047289 jun 2018
683336.21 -47658.21 47658.21 0.074972 jul 2018
373559.41 0.533785
74711.88159
10.676%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


700079 0.00 0 feb 2018
700079 90567.00 90567 0.114548 mar 2018
807853.73 -153507.73 153507.73 0.234597 apr 2018
669557.36 65220.64 65220.64 0.088762 may 2018
716328.96 -28672.96 28672.96 0.041697 jun 2018
683325.29 -47647.29 47647.29 0.074955 jul 2018
613692.42 41095.58 41095.58 0.062762 aug 2018
385615.62 0.554559
77123.1249
11.091%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


790646 0.00 0 mar 2018
790646 -136300.00 136300 0.2083 apr 2018
628449 106329.00 106329 0.144709 may 2018
688193.51 -537.51 537.51 0.000782 jun 2018
672868.08 -37190.08 37190.08 0.058505 jul 2018
613662.71 41125.29 41125.29 0.062807 aug 2018
629429.49 61377.51 61377.51 0.088849 sep 2018
321481.88 0.475102
64296.37576
9.502%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


654346 0.00 0 apr 2018
654346 80432.00 80432 0.109464 may 2018
750060.08 -62404.08 62404.08 0.090749 jun 2018
715210.90 -79532.90 79532.90 0.125115 jul 2018
629400.43 25387.57 25387.57 0.038772 aug 2018
629474.20 61332.80 61332.80 0.088784 sep 2018
684762.70 -28206.70 28206.70 0.042962 oct 2018
309089.36 0.452885
61817.87199
9.058%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


734778 0.00 0 may 2018
734778 -47122.00 47122 0.068526 jun 2018
678702.82 -43024.82 43024.82 0.067683 jul 2018
604413.50 50374.50 50374.50 0.076933 aug 2018
620187.21 70619.79 70619.79 0.102228 sep 2018
684736.32 -28180.32 28180.32 0.042921 oct 2018
666317.00 10338.00 10338.00 0.015278 nov 2018
239321.42 0.358291
47864.28484
7.166%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


687656 0.00 0 jun 2018
687656 -51978.00 51978 0.081768 jul 2018
625802.18 28985.82 28985.82 0.044267 aug 2018
634826.09 55980.91 55980.91 0.081037 sep 2018
690177.21 -33621.21 33621.21 0.051208 oct 2018
666332.45 10322.55 10322.55 0.015255 nov 2018
678306.37 60593.63 60593.63 0.082005 dec 2018
180888.49 0.273536
36177.6978
5.471%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


635678 0.00 0 jul 2018
635678 19110.00 19110 0.029185 aug 2018
658418.9 32388.10 32388.1 0.046884 sep 2018
706324.64 -49768.64 49768.64 0.075803 oct 2018
672334.03 4320.97 4320.97 0.006386 nov 2018
678323.42 60576.58 60576.58 0.081982 dec 2018
753374.26 jan 2019
166164.29 0.24024
33232.85815
4.805%
QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
706,480.00 706,480.00 706480 0 706480 0.00
690,876.00 690,876.00 693996.80 -9986.56 706480 -15604.00
709,888.00 709,888.00 704712.45 6575.21 684010.24 25877.76
687,000.00 687,000.00 691857.53 -8968.89 711287.65 -24287.65
698,700.00 698,700.00 695537.73 1150.38 682888.64 15811.36
720,000.00 720,000.00 715337.62 16069.99 696688.11 23311.89
768,900.00 768,900.00 731407.61 37492.39
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


690,876.00 690,876.00 690876 0 690876 0.00
709,888.00 709,888.00 706085.60 12167.68 690876 19012.00
687,000.00 687,000.00 693250.66 -7834.42 718253.28 -31253.28
698,700.00 698,700.00 696043.25 667.19 685416.24 13283.76
720,000.00 720,000.00 715342.09 15572.51 696710.44 23289.56
768,900.00 768,900.00 761302.92 39883.17 730914.60 37985.40
780,900.00 780,900.00 801186.09 -20286.09
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


709,888.00 709,888.00 709888 0 709888 0.00
687,000.00 687,000.00 691577.60 -14648.32 709888 -22888.00
698,700.00 698,700.00 694345.86 -715.06 676929.28 21770.72
720,000.00 720,000.00 714726.16 16161.23 693630.80 26369.20
768,900.00 768,900.00 761297.48 40489.30 730887.39 38012.61
780,900.00 780,900.00 785077.36 27121.76 801786.78 -20886.78
600,100.00 600,100.00 812199.12 -212099.12
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


687,000.00 687,000.00 687000 0 687000 0.00
698,700.00 698,700.00 696360.00 7488.00 687000 11700.00
720,000.00 720,000.00 716769.60 17825.28 703848 16152.00
768,900.00 768,900.00 762038.98 39780.56 734594.88 34305.12
780,900.00 780,900.00 785083.91 26392.06 801819.53 -20919.53
600,100.00 600,100.00 642375.19 -108888.56 811475.96 -211375.96
640,500.00 640,500.00 533486.63 107013.37
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


698,700.00 698,700.00 698700 0 698700 0.00
720,000.00 720,000.00 715740.00 13632.00 698700 21300.00
768,900.00 768,900.00 760994.40 38929.92 729372 39528.00
780,900.00 780,900.00 784704.86 26754.36 799924.32 -19024.32
600,100.00 600,100.00 642371.84 -108515.55 811459.22 -211359.22
640,500.00 640,500.00 619171.26 -40263.58 533856.30 106643.70
678,976.00 678,976.00 578907.68 100068.32
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


720,000.00 720,000.00 720000 0 720000 0.00
768,900.00 768,900.00 759120.00 31296.00 720000 48900.00
780,900.00 780,900.00 782803.20 25205.76 790416 -9516.00
600,100.00 600,100.00 641681.79 -107855.97 808008.96 -207908.96
640,500.00 640,500.00 619165.16 -39584.50 533825.82 106674.18
678,976.00 678,976.00 659096.93 24028.52 579580.67 99395.33
690,000.00 690,000.00 683125.45 6874.55
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


768,900.00 768900 768900 0 768900 0.00
780,900.00 780900 778500.00 7680.00 768900 12000.00
600,100.00 600100 637316.00 -111411.20 786180 -186080.00
640,500.00 640500 617580.96 -38070.27 525904.80 114595.20
678,976.00 678976 659082.94 25587.53 579510.69 99465.31
690,000.00 690000 688934.09 28998.43 684670.47 5329.53
735,020.00 735020 717932.52 17087.48
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


780,900.00 780900 780900 0 780900 0.00
600,100.00 600100 636260.00 -115712.00 780900 -180800.00
640,500.00 640500 616509.60 -38942.72 520548 119952.00
678,976.00 678976 658694.18 25959.12 577566.88 101409.12
690,000.00 690000 688930.66 29381.01 684653.29 5346.71
735,020.00 735020 731678.33 40074.34 718311.67 16708.33
743,360.00 743360 771752.68 -28392.68
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


600,100.00 600100 600100 0 600100 0.00
640,500.00 640500 632420.00 25856.00 600100 40400.00
678,976.00 678976 674836.00 39104.00 658276 20700.00
690,000.00 690000 694788.00 23782.40 713940.00 -23940.00
735,020.00 735020 731730.08 34310.14 718570.40 16449.60
743,360.00 743360 747896.04 19794.80 766040.22 -22680.22
688,560.00 688560 767690.85 -79130.85
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


640,500.00 640500 640500 0 640500 0.00
678,976.00 678976 671280.80 24624.64 640500 38476.00
690,000.00 690000 691181.09 20845.16 695905.44 -5905.44
735,020.00 735020 730421.25 35561.16 712026.25 22993.75
743,360.00 743360 747884.48 21082.82 765982.41 -22622.41
688,560.00 688560 704641.46 -30377.85 768967.30 -80407.30
705,380.00 705380 674263.61 31116.39
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


678,976.00 678976 678976 0 678976 0.00
690,000.00 690000 687795.20 7055.36 678976 11024.00
735,020.00 735020 726986.11 32763.80 694850.56 40169.44
743,360.00 743360 746637.98 22274.26 759749.91 -16389.91
688,560.00 688560 704630.45 -29151.18 768912.24 -80352.24
705,380.00 705380 699399.85 -10014.71 675479.27 29900.73
734,000.00 734000 689385.14 44614.86
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


690,000.00 690000 690000 0 690000 0.00
735,020.00 735020 726016.00 28812.80 690000 45020.00
743,360.00 743360 745653.76 21472.77 754828.8 -11468.80
688,560.00 688560 704273.31 -28809.81 767126.53 -78566.53
705,380.00 705380 699396.70 -9663.25 675463.50 29916.50
734,000.00 734000 725146.69 18667.34 689733.45 44266.55
690,560.00 690560 743814.03 -53254.03
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


735,020.00 735020 735020 0 735020 0.00
743,360.00 743360 741692.00 5337.60 735020 8340.00
688,560.00 688560 700253.92 -32082.94 747029.6 -58469.60
705,380.00 705380 697938.20 -8269.17 668170.98 37209.02
734,000.00 734000 725133.81 20102.65 689669.03 44330.97
690,560.00 690560 701495.29 -14890.28 745236.46 -54676.46
700,900.00 700900 686605.01 14294.99
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


743,360.00 743360 743360 0 743360 0.00
688,560.00 688560 699520.00 -35072.00 743360 -54800.00
705,380.00 705380 697193.60 -8875.52 664448 40932.00
734,000.00 734000 724863.62 20360.91 688318.08 45681.92
690,560.00 690560 701492.90 -14624.39 745224.52 -54664.52
700,900.00 700900 698093.70 -5644.24 686868.52 14031.48
745,480.00 745480 692449.47 53030.53
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


688,560.00 688560 688560 0 688560 0.00
705,380.00 705380 702016.00 10764.80 688560 16820.00
734,000.00 734000 729756.16 24345.09 712780.8 21219.20
690,560.00 690560 703268.25 -16321.31 754101.25 -63541.25
700,900.00 700900 698109.39 -7391.35 686946.94 13953.06
745,480.00 745480 734527.61 27656.31 690718.04 54761.96
718,000.00 718000 762183.91 -44183.91
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


705,380.00 705380 705380 0 705380 0.00
734,000.00 734000 728276.00 18316.80 705380 28620.00
690,560.00 690560 701766.56 -17544.19 746592.8 -56032.80
700,900.00 700900 697564.47 -6870.51 684222.37 16677.63
745,480.00 745480 734522.79 28192.55 690693.97 54786.03
718,000.00 718000 726943.07 -425.27 762715.35 -44715.35
748,560.00 748560 726517.80 22042.20
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


734,000.00 734000 734000 0 734000 0.00
690,560.00 690560 699248.00 -27801.60 734000 -43440.00
700,900.00 700900 695009.28 -8951.30 671446.4 29453.60
745,480.00 745480 733595.60 29078.79 686057.98 59422.02
718,000.00 718000 726934.88 487.18 762674.39 -44674.39
748,560.00 748560 744332.41 14015.46 727422.06 21137.94
718,280.00 718280 758347.88 -40067.88
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


690,560.00 690560 690560 0 690560 0.00
700,900.00 700900 698832.00 6617.60 690560 10340.00
745,480.00 745480 737473.92 32237.06 705449.6 40030.40
718,000.00 718000 728342.20 -857.97 769710.98 -51710.98
748,560.00 748560 744344.85 12630.53 727484.23 21075.77
718,280.00 718280 726019.07 -12134.51 756975.37 -38695.37
708,720.00 708720 713884.56 -5164.56
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


700,900.00 700900 700900 0 700900 0.00
745,480.00 745480 736564.00 28531.20 700900 44580.00
718,000.00 718000 727419.04 -1609.73 765095.2 -47095.20
748,560.00 748560 744009.86 12950.71 725809.31 22750.69
718,280.00 718280 726016.11 -11804.86 756960.57 -38680.57
708,720.00 708720 709818.25 -15319.26 714211.26 -5491.26
666,776.00 666776 694498.99 -27722.99
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


745,480.00 745480 745480 0 745480 0.00
718,000.00 718000 723496.00 -17587.20 745480 -27480.00
748,560.00 748560 740029.76 9709.57 705908.8 42651.20
718,280.00 718280 724571.87 -10424.40 749739.33 -31459.33
708,720.00 708720 709805.49 -13897.98 714147.46 -5427.46
666,776.00 666776 672602.30 -32542.15 695907.51 -29131.51
700,079.00 700079 640060.16 60018.84
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


718,000.00 718000 718000 0 718000 0.00
748,560.00 748560 742448.00 19558.40 718000 30560.00
718,280.00 718280 727025.28 -8426.50 762006.4 -43726.40
708,720.00 708720 710695.76 -14748.92 718598.78 -9878.78
666,776.00 666776 672610.17 -33418.25 695946.84 -29170.84
700,079.00 700079 687901.58 5549.48 639191.91 60887.09
790,646.00 790646 693451.06 97194.94
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


748,560.00 748560 748560 0 748560 0.00
718,280.00 718280 724336.00 -19379.20 748560 -30280.00
708,720.00 708720 707967.36 -16970.75 704956.8 3763.20
666,776.00 666776 671620.12 -32471.94 690996.61 -24220.61
700,079.00 700079 687892.84 6523.78 639148.18 60930.82
790,646.00 790646 771400.12 68110.59 694416.62 96229.38
654,346.00 654346 839510.71 -185164.71
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


718,280.00 718280 718280 0 718280 0.00
708,720.00 708720 710632.00 -6118.40 718280 -9560.00
666,776.00 666776 674323.52 -30270.46 704513.6 -37737.60
700,079.00 700079 688873.81 5586.14 644053.06 56025.94
790,646.00 790646 771408.79 67145.21 694459.95 96186.05
654,346.00 654346 691187.60 -50747.91 838554.00 -184208.00
734,778.00 734778 640439.69 94338.31
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


708,720.00 708720 708720 0 708720 0.00
666,776.00 666776 675164.80 -26844.16 708720 -41944.00
700,079.00 700079 689727.33 6281.19 648320.64 51758.36
790,646.00 790646 771718.50 66849.18 696008.52 94637.48
654,346.00 654346 691190.34 -51052.70 838567.68 -184221.68
734,778.00 734778 715849.93 9517.13 640137.64 94640.36
687,656.00 687656 725367.06 -37711.06
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


666,776.00 666776 666776 0 666776 0.00
700,079.00 700079 693418.40 21313.92 666776 33303.00
790,646.00 790646 775463.26 69898.68 714732.32 75913.68
654,346.00 654346 692549.19 -52351.53 845361.94 -191015.94
734,778.00 734778 715861.93 8179.89 640197.66 94580.34
687,656.00 687656 694933.16 -15107.04 724041.82 -36385.82
635,678.00 635678 679826.13 -44148.13
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


700,079.00 700079 700079 0 700079 0.00
790,646.00 790646 772532.60 57962.88 700079 90567.00
654,346.00 654346 689575.90 -54772.79 830495.48 -176149.48
734,778.00 734778 714783.02 9211.14 634803.11 99974.89
687,656.00 687656 694923.63 -14045.28 723994.16 -36338.16
635,678.00 635678 644718.07 -42973.51 680878.35 -45200.35
654,788.00 654788 601744.56 53043.44
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


790,646.00 790646 790646 0 790646 0.00
654,346.00 654346 681606.00 -87232.00 790646 -136300.00
734,778.00 734778 706697.20 2626.56 594374 140404.00
687,656.00 687656 691989.55 -11240.81 709323.76 -21667.76
635,678.00 635678 644692.15 -40086.08 680748.75 -45070.75
654,788.00 654788 644751.61 -7969.65 604606.07 50181.93
690,807.00 690807 636781.97 54025.03
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


654,346.00 654346 654346 0 654346 0.00
734,778.00 734778 718691.60 51476.48 654346 80432.00
687,656.00 687656 704158.42 -1331.25 770168.08 -82512.08
635,678.00 635678 649107.83 -44306.72 702827.16 -67149.16
654,788.00 654788 644790.62 -12315.11 604801.12 49986.88
690,807.00 690807 679140.70 25017.04 632475.51 58331.49
656,556.00 656556 704157.74 -47601.74
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


734,778.00 734778 734778 0 734778 0.00
687,656.00 687656 697080.40 -30158.08 734778 -47122.00
635,678.00 635678 641926.86 -50154.44 666922.32 -31244.32
654,788.00 654788 642184.88 -9824.47 591772.42 63015.58
690,807.00 690807 679117.68 27581.34 632360.41 58446.59
656,556.00 656556 666584.61 -4510.19 706699.03 -50143.03
676,655.00 676655 662074.41 14580.59
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


687,656.00 687656 687656 0 687656 0.00
635,678.00 635678 646073.60 -33265.92 687656 -51978.00
654,788.00 654788 646391.94 -6398.52 612807.68 41980.32
690,807.00 690807 680644.28 26122.18 639993.42 50813.58
656,556.00 656556 666598.09 -6012.52 706766.46 -50210.46
676,655.00 676655 673441.11 4271.91 660585.57 16069.43
738,900.00 738900 677713.03 61186.97
total
mad
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


635,678.00 635678 635678 0 635678 0.00
654,788.00 654788 650966.00 12230.40 635678 19110.00
690,807.00 690807 685284.88 29901.18 663196.4 27610.60
656,556.00 656556 668282.01 -7622.06 715186.06 -58630.06
676,655.00 676655 673455.99 2614.77 660659.96 15995.04
738,900.00 738900 726334.15 42825.48 676070.76 62829.24
769159.64
total
mad
mape
alpha 0.9
Dengan Data Acuan 6 Bulan

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jan 2016 706,480.00
15604 0.022586 feb 2016 690,876.00
25877.76 0.036453 mar 2016 709,888.00
24287.65 0.035353 apr 2016 687,000.00
15811.36 0.02263 mei 2016 698,700.00
23311.89 0.032378 jun 2016 720,000.00
37492.39 0.048761 jul 2016 768,900.00
104892.67 0.1494 total
20978.533855 mad
2.988% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 feb 2016 690,876.00
19012 0.026782 mar 2016 709,888.00
31253.28 0.045492 apr 2016 687,000.00
13283.76 0.019012 mei 2016 698,700.00
23289.56 0.032347 jun 2016 720,000.00
37985.40 0.049402 jul 2016 768,900.00
20286.09 0.025978 ags 2016 780,900.00
124824.01 0.173035 total
24964.80189 mad
3.461% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mar 2016 709,888.00
22888 0.033316 apr 2016 687,000.00
21770.72 0.031159 mei 2016 698,700.00
26369.20 0.036624 jun 2016 720,000.00
38012.61 0.049438 jul 2016 768,900.00
20886.78 0.026747 ags 2016 780,900.00
212099.12 0.35344 sep 2016 600,100.00
129927.31 0.177283 total
25985.46243 mad
3.546% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 apr 2016 687,000.00
11700 0.016745 mei 2016 698,700.00
16152 0.022433 jun 2016 720,000.00
34305.12 0.044616 jul 2016 768,900.00
20919.53 0.026789 ags 2016 780,900.00
211375.96 0.352235 sep 2016 600,100.00
107013.37 0.167078 okt 2016 640,500.00
294452.62 0.462818 total
58890.523034 mad
9.256% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mei 2016 698,700.00
21300 0.029583 jun 2016 720,000.00
39528 0.051409 jul 2016 768,900.00
19024.32 0.024362 ags 2016 780,900.00
211359.22 0.352207 sep 2016 600,100.00
106643.70 0.166501 okt 2016 640,500.00
100068.32 0.147381 nov 2016 678,976.00
397855.24 0.624061 total
79571.04809 mad
12.481% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jun 2016 720,000.00
48900 0.063597 jul 2016 768,900.00
9516 0.012186 ags 2016 780,900.00
207908.96 0.346457 sep 2016 600,100.00
106674.18 0.166548 okt 2016 640,500.00
99395.33 0.14639 nov 2016 678,976.00
6874.55 0.009963 des 2016 690,000.00
472394.48 0.735179 total
94478.895309 mad
14.704% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jul 2016 768,900.00
12000 0.015367 ags 2016 780,900.00
186080 0.310082 sep 2016 600,100.00
114595.20 0.178915 okt 2016 640,500.00
99465.31 0.146493 nov 2016 678,976.00
5329.53 0.007724 des 2016 690,000.00
17087.48 0.023248 jan 2017 735,020.00
417470.05 0.658581 total
83494.009344 mad
13.172% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 ags 2016 780,900.00
180800 0.301283 sep 2016 600,100.00
119952 0.187279 okt 2016 640,500.00
101409.12 0.149356 nov 2016 678,976.00
5346.71 0.007749 des 2016 690,000.00
16708.33 0.022732 jan 2017 735,020.00
28392.68 0.038195 feb 2017 743,360.00
424216.16 0.668398 total
84843.231846 mad
13.368% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 sep 2016 600,100.00
40400 0.063076 okt 2016 640,500.00
20700 0.030487 nov 2016 678,976.00
23940.00 0.034696 des 2016 690,000.00
16449.60 0.02238 jan 2017 735,020.00
22680.22 0.03051 feb 2017 743,360.00
79130.85 0.114922 mar 2017 688,560.00
124169.82 0.181149 total
24833.9648 mad
3.623% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 okt 2016 640,500.00
38476 0.056668 nov 2016 678,976.00
5905.44 0.008559 des 2016 690,000.00
22993.75 0.031283 jan 2017 735,020.00
22622.41 0.030433 feb 2017 743,360.00
80407.30 0.116776 mar 2017 688,560.00
31116.39 0.044113 apr 2017 705,380.00
170404.90 0.243718 total
34080.980779 mad
4.874% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 nov 2016 678,976.00
11024 0.015977 des 2016 690,000.00
40169.44 0.054651 jan 2017 735,020.00
16389.91 0.022048 feb 2017 743,360.00
80352.24 0.116696 mar 2017 688,560.00
29900.73 0.04239 apr 2017 705,380.00
44614.86 0.060783 mei 2017 734,000.00
177836.32 0.251762 total
35567.26435 mad
5.035% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 des 2016 690,000.00
45020 0.06125 jan 2017 735,020.00
11468.8 0.015428 feb 2017 743,360.00
78566.53 0.114103 mar 2017 688,560.00
29916.50 0.042412 apr 2017 705,380.00
44266.55 0.060309 mei 2017 734,000.00
53254.03 0.077117 jun 2017 690,560.00
209238.38 0.293502 total
41847.676068 mad
5.870% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jan 2017 735,020.00
8340 0.011219 feb 2017 743,360.00
58469.6 0.084916 mar 2017 688,560.00
37209.02 0.05275 apr 2017 705,380.00
44330.97 0.060396 mei 2017 734,000.00
54676.46 0.079177 jun 2017 690,560.00
14294.99 0.020395 jul 2017 700,900.00
203026.06 0.288459 total
40605.211423 mad
5.769% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 feb 2017 743,360.00
54800 0.079586 mar 2017 688,560.00
40932 0.058028 apr 2017 705,380.00
45681.92 0.062237 mei 2017 734,000.00
54664.52 0.07916 jun 2017 690,560.00
14031.48 0.020019 jul 2017 700,900.00
53030.53 0.071136 ags 2017 745,480.00
210109.93 0.299031 total
42021.985382 mad
5.981% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mar 2017 688,560.00
16820 0.023845 apr 2017 705,380.00
21219.2 0.028909 mei 2017 734,000.00
63541.25 0.092014 jun 2017 690,560.00
13953.06 0.019907 jul 2017 700,900.00
54761.96 0.073459 ags 2017 745,480.00
44183.91 0.061537 sep 2017 718,000.00
170295.47 0.238134 total
34059.094589 mad
4.763% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 apr 2017 705,380.00
28620 0.038992 mei 2017 734,000.00
56032.8 0.081141 jun 2017 690,560.00
16677.63 0.023795 jul 2017 700,900.00
54786.03 0.073491 ags 2017 745,480.00
44715.35 0.062278 sep 2017 718,000.00
22042.20 0.029446 okt 2017 748,560.00
200831.81 0.279696 total
40166.362665 mad
5.594% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mei 2017 734,000.00
43440 0.062905 jun 2017 690,560.00
29453.6 0.042023 jul 2017 700,900.00
59422.02 0.07971 ags 2017 745,480.00
44674.39 0.062221 sep 2017 718,000.00
21137.94 0.028238 okt 2017 748,560.00
40067.88 0.055783 nov 2017 718,280.00
198127.94 0.275096 total
39625.588972 mad
5.502% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jun 2017 690,560.00
10340 0.014752 jul 2017 700,900.00
40030.4 0.053697 ags 2017 745,480.00
51710.98 0.072021 sep 2017 718,000.00
21075.77 0.028155 okt 2017 748,560.00
38695.37 0.053872 nov 2017 718,280.00
5164.56 0.007287 des 2017 708,720.00
161852.52 0.222498 total
32370.504223 mad
4.450% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jul 2017 700,900.00
44580 0.0598 ags 2017 745,480.00
47095.2 0.065592 sep 2017 718,000.00
22750.69 0.030393 okt 2017 748,560.00
38680.57 0.053852 nov 2017 718,280.00
5491.26 0.007748 des 2017 708,720.00
27722.99 0.041578 jan 2018 666,776.00
158597.72 0.217385 total
31719.544433 mad
4.348% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 ags 2017 745,480.00
27480 0.038273 sep 2017 718,000.00
42651.2 0.056978 okt 2017 748,560.00
31459.33 0.043798 nov 2017 718,280.00
5427.46 0.007658 des 2017 708,720.00
29131.51 0.04369 jan 2018 666,776.00
60018.84 0.085732 feb 2018 700,079.00
136149.51 0.190397 total
27229.901148 mad
3.808% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 sep 2017 718,000.00
30560 0.040825 okt 2017 748,560.00
43726.4 0.060877 nov 2017 718,280.00
9878.78 0.013939 des 2017 708,720.00
29170.84 0.043749 jan 2018 666,776.00
60887.09 0.086972 feb 2018 700,079.00
97194.94 0.122931 mar 2018 790,646.00
174223.11 0.246361 total
34844.621996 mad
4.927% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 sep 2017 718,000.00
30280 0.042156 okt 2017 748,560.00
3763.2 0.00531 nov 2017 718,280.00
24220.61 0.036325 des 2017 708,720.00
60930.82 0.087034 jan 2018 666,776.00
96229.38 0.12171 feb 2018 700,079.00
185164.71 0.282977 mar 2018 790,646.00
215424.01 0.292535 total
43084.80161 mad
5.851% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 nov 2017 718,280.00
9560 0.013489 des 2017 708,720.00
37737.6 0.056597 jan 2018 666,776.00
56025.94 0.080028 feb 2018 700,079.00
96186.05 0.121655 mar 2018 790,646.00
184208.00 0.281515 apr 2018 654,346.00
94338.31 0.12839 may 2018 734,778.00
383717.59 0.553284 total
76743.51884 mad
11.066% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 des 2017 708,720.00
41944 0.062906 jan 2018 666,776.00
51758.36 0.073932 feb 2018 700,079.00
94637.48 0.119696 mar 2018 790,646.00
184221.68 0.281536 apr 2018 654,346.00
94640.36 0.128801 may 2018 734,778.00
37711.06 0.05484 jun 2018 687,656.00
467201.89 0.666871 total
93440.377099 mad
13.337% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jan 2018 666,776.00
33303 0.04757 feb 2018 700,079.00
75913.68 0.096015 mar 2018 790,646.00
191015.94 0.291919 apr 2018 654,346.00
94580.34 0.12872 may 2018 734,778.00
36385.82 0.052913 jun 2018 687,656.00
44148.13 0.06945 jul 2018 635,678.00
431198.78 0.617136 total
86239.75602 mad
12.343% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 feb 2018 700,079.00
90567 0.114548 mar 2018 790,646.00
176149.48 0.269199 apr 2018 654,346.00
99974.89 0.136061 may 2018 734,778.00
36338.16 0.052844 jun 2018 687,656.00
45200.35 0.071106 jul 2018 635,678.00
53043.44 0.081009 aug 2018 654,788.00
448229.89 0.643758 total
89645.977346 mad
12.875% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mar 2018 790,646.00
136300 0.2083 apr 2018 654,346.00
140404 0.191084 may 2018 734,778.00
21667.76 0.03151 jun 2018 687,656.00
45070.75 0.070902 jul 2018 635,678.00
50181.93 0.076638 aug 2018 654,788.00
54025.03 0.078206 sep 2018 690,807.00
393624.44 0.578433 total
78724.888013 mad
11.569% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 apr 2018 654,346.00
80432 0.109464 may 2018 734,778.00
82512.08 0.11999 jun 2018 687,656.00
67149.16 0.105634 jul 2018 635,678.00
49986.88 0.076341 aug 2018 654,788.00
58331.49 0.08444 sep 2018 690,807.00
47601.74 0.072502 oct 2018 656,556.00
338411.62 0.495869 total
67682.32327 mad
9.917% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 may 2018 734,778.00
47122 0.068526 jun 2018 687,656.00
31244.32 0.049151 jul 2018 635,678.00
63015.58 0.096238 aug 2018 654,788.00
58446.59 0.084606 sep 2018 690,807.00
50143.03 0.076373 oct 2018 656,556.00
14580.59 0.021548 nov 2018 676,655.00
249971.52 0.374894 total
49994.303246 mad
7.498% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jun 2018 687,656.00
51978 0.081768 jul 2018 635,678.00
41980.32 0.064113 aug 2018 654,788.00
50813.58 0.073557 sep 2018 690,807.00
50210.46 0.076476 oct 2018 656,556.00
16069.43 0.023748 nov 2018 676,655.00
61186.97 0.082808 dec 2018 738,900.00
211051.79 0.319661 total
42210.357121 mad
6.393% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jul 2018 635,678.00
19110 0.029185 aug 2018 654,788.00
27610.6 0.039969 sep 2018 690,807.00
58630.06 0.089299 oct 2018 656,556.00
15995.04 0.023638 nov 2018 676,655.00
62829.24 0.085031 dec 2018 738,900.00
jan 2019
184174.95 0.267122 total
36834.989138 mad
5.342% mape
level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
706,480.00 706480 0 706480 0.00 0
690,876.00 692436.40 -12639.24 706480 -15604.00 15604 0.022586
709,888.00 706878.92 11734.34 679797.16 30090.84 30090.84 0.042388
687,000.00 690161.33 -13872.40 718613.26 -31613.26 31613.26 0.046016
698,700.00 696458.89 4280.57 676288.93 22411.07 22411.07 0.032075
720,000.00 718073.95 19881.61 700739.46 19260.54 19260.54 0.026751
768,900.00 737955.55 30944.45 30944.45 0.040245
total 118979.70 0.169816
mad 23795.94089
mape 3.396%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690,876.00 690876 0 690876 0.00 0
709,888.00 707986.80 15399.72 690876 19012.00 19012 0.026782
687,000.00 690638.65 -14073.36 723386.52 -36386.52 36386.52 0.052964
698,700.00 696486.53 3855.75 676565.29 22134.71 22134.71 0.03168
720,000.00 718034.23 19778.50 700342.28 19657.72 19657.72 0.027302
768,900.00 765791.27 44959.19 737812.73 31087.27 31087.27 0.040431
780,900.00 810750.46 -29850.46 29850.46 0.038226
total 128278.21 0.179159
mad 25655.64281
mape 3.583%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


709,888.00 709888 0 709888 0.00 0
687,000.00 689288.80 -18539.28 709888 -22888.00 22888 0.033316
698,700.00 695904.95 4100.61 670749.52 27950.48 27950.48 0.040004
720,000.00 718000.56 20296.10 700005.56 19994.44 19994.44 0.02777
768,900.00 765839.67 45084.81 738296.66 30603.34 30603.34 0.039801
780,900.00 783902.45 20764.98 810924.48 -30024.48 30024.48 0.038449
600,100.00 804667.43 -204567.43 204567.43 0.340889
total 131460.73 0.179339
mad 26292.14681
mape 3.587%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


687,000.00 687000 0 687000 0.00 0
698,700.00 697530.00 9477.00 687000 11700.00 11700 0.016745
720,000.00 718700.70 20001.33 707007 12993.00 12993 0.018046
768,900.00 765880.20 44461.69 738702.03 30197.97 30197.97 0.039274
780,900.00 783844.19 20613.76 810341.89 -29441.89 29441.89 0.037703
600,100.00 620535.79 -144916.18 804457.94 -204357.94 204357.94 0.34054
640,500.00 475619.62 164880.38 164880.38 0.257424
total 288690.80 0.452308
mad 57738.16068
mape 9.046%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


698,700.00 698700 0 698700 0.00 0
720,000.00 717870.00 17253.00 698700 21300.00 21300 0.029583
768,900.00 765522.30 44612.37 735123 33777.00 33777 0.043929
780,900.00 783823.47 20932.29 810134.67 -29234.67 29234.67 0.037437
600,100.00 620565.58 -144838.87 804755.75 -204655.75 204655.75 0.341036
640,500.00 624022.67 -11372.50 475726.70 164773.30 164773.30 0.257257
678,976.00 612650.17 66325.83 66325.83 0.097685
total 453740.72 0.709243
mad 90748.14451
mape 14.185%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


720,000.00 720000 0 720000 0.00 0
768,900.00 764010.00 39609.00 720000 48900.00 48900 0.063597
780,900.00 783171.90 21206.61 803619 -22719.00 22719 0.029093
600,100.00 620527.85 -144258.98 804378.51 -204278.51 204278.51 0.340407
640,500.00 624076.89 -11231.77 476268.87 164231.13 164231.13 0.256411
678,976.00 672362.91 42334.25 612845.12 66130.88 66130.88 0.097398
690,000.00 714697.16 -24697.16 24697.16 0.035793
total 506259.52 0.786907
mad 101251.9043
mape 15.738%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


768900 768900 0 768900 0.00 0
780900 779700.00 9720.00 768900 12000.00 12000 0.015367
600100 619032.00 -143629.20 789420 -189320.00 189320 0.315481
640500 623990.28 -9900.47 475402.80 165097.20 165097.20 0.257763
678976 672487.38 42657.34 614089.81 64886.19 64886.19 0.095565
690000 692514.47 22290.12 715144.73 -25144.73 25144.73 0.036442
735020 714804.59 20215.41 20215.41 0.027503
total 456448.11 0.720617
mad 91289.6227
mape 14.412%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


780900 780900 0 780900 0.00 0
600100 618180.00 -146448.00 780900 -180800.00 180800 0.301283
640500 623623.20 -9745.92 471732 168768.00 168768 0.263494
678976 672466.13 42984.04 613877.28 65098.72 65098.72 0.095878
690000 692545.02 22369.40 715450.17 -25450.17 25450.17 0.036884
735020 733009.44 38654.92 714914.42 20105.58 20105.58 0.027354
743360 771664.37 -28304.37 28304.37 0.038076
total 460222.47 0.724893
mad 92044.49391
mape 14.498%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


600100 600100 0 600100 0.00 0
640500 636460.00 32724.00 600100 40400.00 40400 0.063076
678976 677996.80 40655.52 669184 9792.00 9792 0.014422
690000 692865.23 17447.14 718652.32 -28652.32 28652.32 0.041525
735020 732549.24 37460.32 710312.37 24707.63 24707.63 0.033615
743360 746024.96 15874.18 770009.56 -26649.56 26649.56 0.03585
688560 761899.13 -73339.13 73339.13 0.106511
total 130201.50 0.188488
mad 26040.30066
mape 3.770%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


640500 640500 0 640500 0.00 0
678976 675128.40 31165.56 640500 38476.00 38476 0.056668
690000 691629.40 17967.45 706293.96 -16293.96 16293.96 0.023614
735020 732477.68 38560.21 709596.85 25423.15 25423.15 0.034588
743360 746127.79 16141.11 771037.89 -27677.89 27677.89 0.037233
688560 695930.89 -43563.10 762268.90 -73708.90 73708.90 0.107048
705380 652367.79 53012.21 53012.21 0.075154
total 181579.90 0.259152
mad 36315.98098
mape 5.183%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


678976 678976 0 678976 0.00 0
690000 688897.60 8929.44 678976 11024.00 11024 0.015977
735020 731300.70 39055.74 697827.04 37192.96 37192.96 0.050601
743360 746059.64 17188.62 770356.44 -26996.44 26996.44 0.036317
688560 696028.83 -43308.87 763248.26 -74688.26 74688.26 0.10847
705380 700114.00 -654.24 652719.95 52660.05 52660.05 0.074655
734000 699459.76 34540.24 34540.24 0.047058
total 202561.71 0.28602
mad 40512.34265
mape 5.720%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690000 690000 0 690000 0.00 0
735020 730518.00 36466.20 690000 45020.00 45020 0.06125
743360 745722.42 17330.60 766984.2 -23624.20 23624.2 0.03178
688560 696009.30 -43008.75 763053.02 -74493.02 74493.02 0.108187
705380 700142.06 -581.40 653000.56 52379.44 52379.44 0.074257
734000 730556.07 27314.47 699560.66 34439.34 34439.34 0.04692
690560 757870.54 -67310.54 67310.54 0.097472
total 229956.00 0.322394
mad 45991.20071
mape 6.448%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


735020 735020 0 735020 0.00 0
743360 742526.00 6755.40 735020 8340.00 8340 0.011219
688560 694632.14 -42428.93 749281.4 -60721.40 60721.4 0.088186
705380 700062.32 644.27 652203.21 53176.79 53176.79 0.075387
734000 730670.66 27611.93 700706.59 33293.41 33293.41 0.045359
690560 697332.26 -27243.37 758282.59 -67722.59 67722.59 0.098069
700900 670088.89 30811.11 30811.11 0.043959
total 223254.19 0.318221
mad 44650.83894
mape 6.364%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


743360 743360 0 743360 0.00 0
688560 694040.00 -44388.00 743360 -54800.00 54800 0.079586
705380 699807.20 751.68 649652 55728.00 55728 0.079004
734000 730655.89 27838.99 700558.88 33441.12 33441.12 0.04556
690560 697353.49 -27188.26 758494.88 -67934.88 67934.88 0.098376
700900 697826.52 -2293.09 670165.23 30734.77 30734.77 0.04385
745480 695533.43 49946.57 49946.57 0.066999
total 242638.77 0.346378
mad 48527.75388
mape 6.928%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


688560 688560 0 688560 0.00 0
705380 703698.00 13624.20 688560 16820.00 16820 0.023845
734000 732332.22 27133.22 717322.2 16677.80 16677.8 0.022722
690560 697450.54 -28680.19 759465.44 -68905.44 68905.44 0.099782
700900 697687.04 -2655.18 668770.36 32129.64 32129.64 0.045841
745480 740435.19 38207.82 695031.86 50448.14 50448.14 0.067672
718000 778643.00 -60643.00 60643.00 0.084461
total 184981.02 0.259862
mad 36996.20425
mape 5.197%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


705380 705380 0 705380 0.00 0
734000 731138.00 23182.20 705380 28620.00 28620 0.038992
690560 696936.02 -28463.56 754320.2 -63760.20 63760.2 0.092331
700900 697657.25 -2197.25 668472.46 32427.54 32427.54 0.046266
745480 740478.00 38318.95 695459.99 50020.01 50020.01 0.067098
718000 724079.70 -10926.58 778796.95 -60796.95 60796.95 0.084675
748560 713153.12 35406.88 35406.88 0.0473
total 235624.70 0.329362
mad 47124.94026
mape 6.587%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


734000 734000 0 734000 0.00 0
690560 694904.00 -35186.40 734000 -43440.00 43440 0.062905
700900 696781.76 -1828.66 659717.6 41182.40 41182.4 0.058756
745480 740427.31 39098.13 694953.10 50526.90 50526.90 0.067778
718000 724152.54 -10737.48 779525.44 -61525.44 61525.44 0.08569
748560 745045.51 17729.92 713415.07 35144.93 35144.93 0.04695
718280 762775.43 -44495.43 44495.43 0.061947
total 231819.67 0.32208
mad 46363.93378
mape 6.442%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690560 690560 0 690560 0.00 0
700900 699866.00 8375.40 690560 10340.00 10340 0.014752
745480 741756.14 38538.67 708241.4 37238.60 37238.6 0.049953
718000 724229.48 -11920.13 780294.81 -62294.81 62294.81 0.086762
748560 744934.94 17442.90 712309.35 36250.65 36250.65 0.048427
718280 722689.78 -18276.35 762377.83 -44097.83 44097.83 0.061394
708720 704413.44 4306.56 4306.56 0.006077
total 190221.88 0.261287
mad 38044.37685
mape 5.226%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


700900 700900 0 700900 0.00 0
745480 741022.00 36109.80 700900 44580.00 44580 0.0598
718000 723913.18 -11786.96 777131.8 -59131.80 59131.8 0.082356
748560 744916.62 17724.40 712126.22 36433.78 36433.78 0.048672
718280 722716.10 -18208.03 762641.02 -44361.02 44361.02 0.06176
708720 708298.81 -14796.37 704508.07 4211.93 4211.93 0.005943
666776 693502.44 -26726.44 26726.44 0.040083
total 188718.53 0.258532
mad 37743.7055
mape 5.171%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


745480 745480 0 745480 0.00 0
718000 720748.00 -22258.80 745480 -27480.00 27480 0.038273
748560 743552.92 18298.55 698489.2 50070.80 50070.8 0.066889
718280 722637.15 -16994.34 761851.47 -43571.47 43571.47 0.060661
708720 708412.28 -14501.81 705642.81 3077.19 3077.19 0.004342
666776 669489.45 -36480.73 693910.47 -27134.47 27134.47 0.040695
700079 633008.71 67070.29 67070.29 0.095804
total 151333.93 0.21086
mad 30266.78583
mape 4.217%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718000 718000 0 718000 0.00 0
748560 745504.00 24753.60 718000 30560.00 30560 0.040825
718280 723477.76 -17348.26 770257.6 -51977.60 51977.6 0.072364
708720 708460.95 -15249.95 706129.50 2590.50 2590.50 0.003655
666776 669419.50 -36662.30 693211.00 -26435.00 26435.00 0.039646
700079 693346.82 17868.36 632757.20 67321.80 67321.80 0.096163
790646 711215.18 79430.82 79430.82 0.100463
total 178884.89 0.252653
mad 35776.97873
mape 5.053%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718000 718000 0 718000 0.00 0
748560 745504.00 24753.60 718000 30560.00 30560 0.040825
718280 723477.76 -17348.26 770257.6 -51977.60 51977.6 0.072364
708720 708460.95 -15249.95 706129.50 2590.50 2590.50 0.003655
666776 669419.50 -36662.30 693211.00 -26435.00 26435.00 0.039646
700079 693346.82 17868.36 632757.20 67321.80 67321.80 0.096163
790646 711215.18 79430.82 79430.82 0.100463
total 178884.89 0.252653
mad 35776.97873
mape 5.053%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718280 718280 0 718280 0.00 0
708720 709676.00 -7743.60 718280 -9560.00 9560 0.013489
666776 670291.64 -36220.28 701932.4 -35156.40 35156.4 0.052726
700079 693478.24 17245.91 634071.36 66007.64 66007.64 0.094286
790646 782653.81 81982.61 710724.14 79921.86 79921.86 0.101084
654346 675375.04 -88352.63 864636.43 -210290.43 210290.43 0.321375
734778 587022.41 147755.59 147755.59 0.201089
total 400936.33 0.58296
mad 80187.26534
mape 11.659%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


708720 708720 0 708720 0.00 0
666776 670970.40 -33974.64 708720 -41944.00 41944 0.062906
700079 693770.68 17122.78 636995.76 63083.24 63083.24 0.090109
790646 782670.75 81722.34 710893.46 79752.54 79752.54 0.10087
654346 675350.71 -88415.80 864393.09 -210047.09 210047.09 0.321003
734778 719993.69 31337.10 586934.91 147843.09 147843.09 0.201208
687656 751330.79 -63674.79 63674.79 0.092597
total 542669.96 0.776095
mad 108533.9916
mape 15.522%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


666776 666776 0 666776 0.00 0
700079 696748.70 26975.43 666776 33303.00 33303 0.04757
790646 783953.81 81182.14 723724.13 66921.87 66921.87 0.084642
654346 675425.00 -89557.72 865135.96 -210789.96 210789.96 0.322138
734778 719886.93 31059.97 585867.27 148910.73 148910.73 0.202661
687656 693985.09 -20205.66 750946.89 -63290.89 63290.89 0.092039
635678 673779.43 -38101.43 38101.43 0.059938
total 523216.45 0.74905
mad 104643.2894
mape 14.981%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


700079 700079 0 700079 0.00 0
790646 781589.30 73359.27 700079 90567.00 90567 0.114548
654346 674406.26 -89128.81 854948.57 -200602.57 200602.57 0.30657
734778 719827.94 31966.64 585277.45 149500.55 149500.55 0.203464
687656 694069.86 -19985.61 751794.58 -64138.58 64138.58 0.093271
635678 639518.62 -51094.67 674084.24 -38406.24 38406.24 0.060418
654788 588423.95 66364.05 66364.05 0.101352
total 543214.95 0.77827
mad 108642.9902
mape 15.565%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


790646 790646 0 790646 0.00 0
654346 667976.00 -110403.00 790646 -136300.00 136300 0.2083
734778 717057.50 33133.05 557573 177205.00 177205 0.241168
687656 693909.46 -17519.94 750190.55 -62534.55 62534.55 0.090939
635678 639749.15 -50496.27 676389.52 -40711.52 40711.52 0.064044
654788 648234.49 2587.18 589252.89 65535.11 65535.11 0.100086
690807 650821.66 39985.34 39985.34 0.057882
total 482286.18 0.704537
mad 96457.23677
mape 14.091%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


654346 654346 0 654346 0.00 0
734778 726734.80 65149.92 654346 80432.00 80432 0.109464
687656 698078.87 -19275.34 791884.72 -104228.72 104228.72 0.151571
635678 639990.55 -54207.02 678803.53 -43125.53 43125.53 0.067842
654788 647887.55 1686.60 585783.53 69004.47 69004.47 0.105384
690807 686683.72 35085.21 649574.15 41232.85 41232.85 0.059688
656556 721768.92 -65212.92 65212.92 0.099326
total 338023.57 0.49395
mad 67604.71325
mape 9.879%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


734778 734778 0 734778 0.00 0
687656 692368.20 -38168.82 734778 -47122.00 47122 0.068526
635678 637530.14 -53171.14 654199.38 -18521.38 18521.38 0.029136
654788 647745.10 3876.35 584359.00 70429.00 70429.00 0.10756
690807 686888.45 35616.65 651621.45 39185.55 39185.55 0.056724
656556 663150.91 -17802.12 722505.09 -65949.09 65949.09 0.100447
676655 645348.79 31306.21 31306.21 0.046266
total 241207.02 0.362393
mad 48241.40376
mape 7.248%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


687656 687656 0 687656 0.00 0
635678 640875.80 -42102.18 687656 -51978.00 51978 0.081768
654788 649186.56 3269.47 598773.62 56014.38 56014.38 0.085546
690807 686971.90 34333.75 652456.03 38350.97 38350.97 0.055516
656556 663030.97 -18113.47 721305.66 -64749.66 64749.66 0.09862
676655 673481.25 7593.91 644917.50 31737.50 31737.50 0.046904
738900 681075.16 57824.84 57824.84 0.078258
total 242830.51 0.368354
mad 48566.10188
mape 7.367%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


635678 635678 0 635678 0.00 0
654788 652877.00 15479.10 635678 19110.00 19110 0.029185
690807 688561.91 33664.33 668356.1 22450.90 22450.9 0.0325
656556 663123.02 -19528.56 722226.24 -65670.24 65670.24 0.100022
676655 673348.95 7250.47 643594.46 33060.54 33060.54 0.048859
738900 733069.94 54473.94 680599.42 58300.58 58300.58 0.078902
787543.89
total 198592.26 0.289467
mad 39718.45208
mape 5.789%
Dengan Data Acuan 3 Bulan

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480
1 feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 704919.60
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 705276.00
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 690876
2 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 692777.20
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 692370.59
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 709888
3 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 707599.20
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 706503.29
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 687000
4 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 688170.00
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 691458.30
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 698700
5 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 700830.00
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 707828.70
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 720000
6 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 724890.00
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 730931.10
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 768900
7 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 770100.00
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 753208.00
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780900
8 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 762820.00
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 748960.80
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 600100
9 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 604140.00
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 611987.20
des 2016 690,000.00 690000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 640500
10 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 644347.60
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 649259.12
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 678976
11 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 680078.40
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 685671.78
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690000
12 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 694502.00
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 699792.98
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 735020
13 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 735854.00
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 731199.66
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 743360
14 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 737880.00
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 734136.80
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 688560
15 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 690242.00
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 694769.18
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 705380
16 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 708242.00
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 706731.38
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 734000
17 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 729656.00
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 726389.44
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 690560
18 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 691594.00
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 697075.66
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 700900
19 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 705358.00
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 707023.42
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 745480
20 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 742732.00
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 743067.48
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 718000
21 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 721056.00
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 721053.44
des 2017 708,720.00 708720
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 748560
22 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 745532.00
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 741578.28
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 718280
23 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 717324.00
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 712183.16
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708720
24 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 704525.60
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 703703.44
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 666776
25 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 670106.30
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 682460.00
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 700079
26 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 709135.70
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 704471.83
may 2018 734,778.00 734778
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 790646
27 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 777016.00
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 771565.50
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 654346
28 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 662389.20
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 665639.77
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


may 2018 734,778.00 734778 734778
29 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 730065.80
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 720202.92
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 687656
30 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 682458.20
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 679223.38
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 635678
31 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 637589.00
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 643082.79
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 654788
32 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 658389.90
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 658530.68
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 690807
33 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 687381.90
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 686000.95
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 656556
34 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 658565.90
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 666780.20
jan 2019
total
mad
mape
Dengan Data Acuan 3 Bulan

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 706480 0 0 jan
-156.04 706480 -15604 15604 0.02258582 feb
-104.80 704763.56 5124.44 5124.44 0.00721866 mar
705171.21 -18171.2084 18171.2084 0.02645009 apr
20728.44 0.02980448
10364.22
1.490%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 690876 0 0 feb
190.12 690876 19012 19012 0.02678169 mar
130.45 692967.32 -5967.32 5967.32 0.00868606 apr
692501.03 6198.9652 6198.9652 0.00887214 mei
24979.32 0.03546774
12489.66
1.773%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 709888 0 0 mar
-228.88 709888 -22888 22888 0.03331587 apr
-315.58 707370.32 -8670.32 8670.32 0.01240922 mei
706187.70 13812.2952 13812.2952 0.01918374 jun
31558.32 0.04572508
15779.16
2.286%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 687000 0 0 apr
117.00 687000 11700 11700 0.01674538 mei
434.13 688287 31713 31713 0.04404583 jun
691892.43 77007.57 77007.57 0.10015291 jul
43413.00 0.06079122
21706.5
3.040%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 698700 0 0 mei
213.00 698700 21300 21300 0.02958333 jun
891.57 701043 67857 67857 0.08825205 jul
708720.27 72179.73 72179.73 0.09243146 ags
89157.00 0.11783538
44578.5
5.892%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 720000 0 0 jun
489.00 720000 48900 48900 0.06359735 jul
1044.21 725379 55521 55521 0.07109873 ags
731975.31 -131875.31 131875.31 0.21975556 sep
104421.00 0.13469608
52210.5
6.735%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 768900 0 0 jul
120.00 768900 12000 12000 0.01536688 ags
-1581.20 770220 -170120 170120 0.28348609 sep
751626.80 -111126.8 111126.8 0.17350008 okt
182120.00 0.29885297
91060
14.943%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 780900 0 0 ags
-1808.00 780900 -180800 180800 0.30128312 sep
-3013.12 761012 -120512 120512 0.18815301 okt
745947.68 -66971.68 66971.68 0.0986363 nov
301312.00 0.48943612
150656
24.472%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 600100 0 0 sep
404.00 600100 40400 40400 0.06307572 okt
1148.32 604544 74432 74432 0.1096239 nov
613135.52 76864.48 76864.48 0.1113978 des
114832.00 0.17269963
57416
8.635%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 640500 0 0 okt
384.76 640500 38476 38476 0.05666769 nov
837.44 644732.36 45267.64 45267.64 0.06560528 des
650096.56 84923.4396 84923.4396 0.11553895 jan
83743.64 0.12227296
41871.82
6.114%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 678976 0 0 nov
110.24 678976 11024 11024 0.01597681 des
658.55 680188.64 54831.36 54831.36 0.07459846 jan
686330.33 57029.6704 57029.6704 0.07671878 feb
65855.36 0.09057527
32927.68
4.529%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 690000 0 0 des
450.20 690000 45020 45020 0.06125003 jan
934.28 694952.2 48407.8 48407.8 0.06512026 feb
700727.26 -12167.258 12167.258 0.01767058 mar
93427.80 0.1263703
46713.9
6.319%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 735020 0 0 jan
83.40 735020 8340 8340 0.01121933 feb
-390.37 735937.4 -47377.4 47377.4 0.06880649 mar
730809.29 -25429.286 25429.286 0.03605048 apr
55717.40 0.08002582
27858.7
4.001%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 743360 0 0 feb
-548.00 743360 -54800 54800 0.07958638 mar
-867.52 737332 -31952 31952 0.04529757 apr
733269.28 730.72 730.72 0.00099553 mei
86752.00 0.12488395
43376
6.244%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 688560 0 0 mar
168.20 688560 16820 16820 0.0238453 apr
604.10 690410.2 43589.8 43589.8 0.05938665 mei
695373.28 -4813.278 4813.278 0.00697011 jun
60409.80 0.08323195
30204.9
4.162%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 705380 0 0 apr
286.20 705380 28620 28620 0.03899183 mei
106.52 708528.2 -17968.2 17968.2 0.02601975 jun
706837.90 -5937.898 5937.898 0.00847182 jul
46588.20 0.06501158
23294.1
3.251%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 734000 0 0 mei
-434.40 734000 -43440 43440 0.06290547 jun
-717.62 729221.6 -28321.6 28321.6 0.04040748 jul
725671.82 19808.176 19808.176 0.02657104 ags
71761.60 0.10331294
35880.8
5.166%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 690560 0 0 jun
103.40 690560 10340 10340 0.01475246 jul
641.23 691697.4 53782.6 53782.6 0.07214493 ags
697716.89 20283.114 20283.114 0.02824946 sep
64122.60 0.08689739
32061.3
4.345%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 700900 0 0 jul
445.80 700900 44580 44580 0.0598004 ags
567.76 705803.8 12196.2 12196.2 0.01698635 sep
707591.18 40968.818 40968.818 0.05473017 okt
56776.20 0.07678675
28388.1
3.839%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 745480 0 0 ags
-274.80 745480 -27480 27480 0.03827298 sep
-213.77 742457.2 6102.8 6102.8 0.00815272 okt
742853.71 -24573.708 24573.708 0.03421188 nov
33582.80 0.0464257
16791.4
2.321%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 718000 0 0 sep
305.60 718000 30560 30560 0.04082505 okt
274.78 721361.6 -3081.6 3081.6 0.00429025 nov
721328.22 -12608.224 12608.224 0.01779013 des
33641.60 0.0451153
16820.8
2.256%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 748560 0 0 okt
-302.80 748560 -30280 30280 0.04215626 nov
-667.89 745229.2 -36509.2 36509.2 0.05151428 des
740910.39 -74134.388 74134.388 0.11118335 jan
66789.20 0.09367054
33394.6
4.684%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 718280 0 0 nov
-95.60 718280 -9560 9560 0.01348911 des
-600.12 717228.4 -50452.4 50452.4 0.07566619 jan
711583.04 -11504.036 11504.036 0.01643248 feb
60012.40 0.0891553
30006.2
4.458%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 708720 0 0 des
-419.44 708720 -41944 41944 0.06290568 jan
-459.71 704106.16 -4027.16 4027.16 0.00575244 feb
703243.73 87402.2676 87402.2676 0.11054539 mar
45971.16 0.06865812
22985.58
3.433%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 666776 0 0 jan
333.03 666776 33303 33303 0.04757035 feb
1535.10 670439.33 120206.67 120206.67 0.15203602 mar
683995.09 -29649.0937 29649.0937 0.04531103 apr
153509.67 0.19960636
76754.835
9.980%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 700079 0 0 feb
905.67 700079 90567 90567 0.1145481 mar
348.72 710041.37 -55695.37 55695.37 0.08511609 apr
704820.55 29957.4507 29957.4507 0.04077075 may
146262.37 0.19966419
73131.185
9.983%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 790646 0 0 mar
-1363.00 790646 -136300 136300 0.20829958 apr
-1771.75 775653 -40875 40875 0.05562905 may
769793.75 -82137.75 82137.75 0.11944599 jun
177175.00 0.26392863
88587.5
13.196%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 654346 0 0 apr
804.32 654346 80432 80432 0.10946436 may
1048.94 663193.52 24462.48 24462.48 0.03557372 jun
666688.71 -31010.7128 31010.7128 0.04878368 jul
104894.48 0.14503807
52447.24
7.252%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 734778 0 0 may
-471.22 734778 -47122 47122 0.06852554 jun
-1410.39 729594.58 -93916.58 93916.58 0.14774238 jul
718792.54 -64004.5362 64004.5362 0.09774849 aug
141038.58 0.21626792
70519.29
10.813%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 687656 0 0 jun
-519.78 687656 -51978 51978 0.08176781 jul
-791.28 681938.42 -27150.42 27150.42 0.04146444 aug
678432.09 12374.9062 12374.9062 0.0179137 sep
79128.42 0.12323226
39564.21
6.162%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 635678 0 0 jul
191.10 635678 19110 19110 0.02918502 aug
721.37 637780.1 53026.9 53026.9 0.0767608 sep
643804.16 12751.841 12751.841 0.01942232 oct
72136.90 0.10594582
36068.45
5.297%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 654788 0 0 aug
360.19 654788 36019 36019 0.05214047 sep
338.25 658750.09 -2194.09 2194.09 0.00334182 oct
658868.93 17786.0699 17786.0699 0.02628529 nov
38213.09 0.05548228
19106.545
2.774%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 690807 0 0 sep
-342.51 690807 -34251 34251 0.05216767 oct
-446.35 687039.39 -10384.39 10384.39 0.01534665 nov
685554.60 53345.4029 53345.4029 0.0721957 dec
44635.39 0.06751433
22317.695
3.376%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 656556 0 0 oct
200.99 656556 20099 20099 0.02970347 nov
1002.32 658766.89 80133.11 80133.11 0.10844919 dec
667782.52 jan
100232.11 0.13815266
50116.055
6.908%
TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
2016 706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480 0
2016 690,876.00 690876 703359.20 -624.16 706480 -15604
2016 709,888.00 709888 704165.63 -338.04 702735.04 7152.96
2016 687,000.00 687000 703827.59 -16827.5904
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 690,876.00 690876 690876 0 690876 0
2016 709,888.00 709888 694678.40 760.48 690876 19012
2016 687,000.00 687000 693751.10 422.92 695438.88 -8438.88
2016 698,700.00 698700 694174.03 4525.9712
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 709,888.00 709888 709888 0 709888 0
2016 687,000.00 687000 705310.40 -915.52 709888 -22888
2016 698,700.00 698700 703255.90 -1143.32 704394.88 -5694.88
2016 720,000.00 720000 702112.59 17887.4112
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 687,000.00 687000 687000 0 687000 0
2016 698,700.00 698700 689340.00 468.00 687000 11700
2016 720,000.00 720000 695846.40 1675.68 689808 30192
2016 768,900.00 768900 697522.08 71377.92
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 698,700.00 698700 698700 0 698700 0
2016 720,000.00 720000 702960.00 852.00 698700 21300
2016 768,900.00 768900 716829.60 3455.52 703812 65088
2016 780,900.00 780900 720285.12 60614.88
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 720,000.00 720000 720000 0 720000 0
2016 768,900.00 768900 729780.00 1956.00 720000 48900
2016 780,900.00 780900 741568.80 3922.56 731736 49164
2016 600,100.00 600100 745491.36 -145391.36
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 768,900.00 768900 768900 0 768900 0
2016 780,900.00 780900 771300.00 480.00 768900 12000
2016 600,100.00 600100 737444.00 -6387.20 771780 -171680
2016 640,500.00 640500 731056.80 -90556.8
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 780,900.00 780900 780900 0 780900 0
2016 600,100.00 600100 744740.00 -7232.00 780900 -180800
2016 640,500.00 640500 718106.40 -11112.32 737508 -97008
2016 678,976.00 678976 706994.08 -28018.08
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 600,100.00 600100 600100 0 600100 0
2016 640,500.00 640500 608180.00 1616.00 600100 40400
2016 678,976.00 678976 623632.00 4383.20 609796 69180
2016 690,000.00 690000 628015.20 61984.8
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 640,500.00 640500 640500 0 640500 0
2016 678,976.00 678976 648195.20 1539.04 640500 38476
2016 690,000.00 690000 657787.39 3149.67 649734.24 40265.76
2017 735,020.00 735020 660937.06 74082.9376
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 678,976.00 678976 678976 0 678976 0
2016 690,000.00 690000 681180.80 440.96 678976 11024
2017 735,020.00 735020 692301.41 2576.89 681621.76 53398.24
2017 743,360.00 743360 694878.30 48481.7024
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 690,000.00 690000 690000 0 690000 0
2017 735,020.00 735020 699004.00 1800.80 690000 45020
2017 743,360.00 743360 709315.84 3503.01 700804.8 42555.2
2017 688,560.00 688560 712818.85 -24258.848
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 735,020.00 735020 735020 0 735020 0
2017 743,360.00 743360 736688.00 333.60 735020 8340
2017 688,560.00 688560 727329.28 -1604.86 737021.6 -48461.6
2017 705,380.00 705380 725724.42 -20344.416
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 743,360.00 743360 743360 0 743360 0
2017 688,560.00 688560 732400.00 -2192.00 743360 -54800
2017 705,380.00 705380 725242.40 -3185.12 730208 -24828
2017 734,000.00 734000 722057.28 11942.72
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 688,560.00 688560 688560 0 688560 0
2017 705,380.00 705380 691924.00 672.80 688560 16820
2017 734,000.00 734000 700877.44 2328.93 692596.8 41403.2
2017 690,560.00 690560 703206.37 -12646.368
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 705,380.00 705380 705380 0 705380 0
2017 734,000.00 734000 711104.00 1144.80 705380 28620
2017 690,560.00 690560 707911.04 277.25 712248.8 -21688.8
2017 700,900.00 700900 708188.29 -7288.288
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 734,000.00 734000 734000 0 734000 0
2017 690,560.00 690560 725312.00 -1737.60 734000 -43440
2017 700,900.00 700900 719039.52 -2644.58 723574.4 -22674.4
2017 745,480.00 745480 716394.94 29085.056
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 690,560.00 690560 690560 0 690560 0
2017 700,900.00 700900 692628.00 413.60 690560 10340
2017 745,480.00 745480 703529.28 2511.14 693041.6 52438.4
2017 718,000.00 718000 706040.42 11959.584
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 700,900.00 700900 700900 0 700900 0
2017 745,480.00 745480 709816.00 1783.20 700900 44580
2017 718,000.00 718000 712879.36 2039.23 711599.2 6400.8
2017 748,560.00 748560 714918.59 33641.408
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 745,480.00 745480 745480 0 745480 0
2017 718,000.00 718000 739984.00 -1099.20 745480 -27480
2017 748,560.00 748560 740819.84 -712.19 738884.8 9675.2
2017 718,280.00 718280 740107.65 -21827.648
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 718,000.00 718000 718000 0 718000 0
2017 748,560.00 748560 724112.00 1222.40 718000 30560
2017 718,280.00 718280 723923.52 940.22 725334.4 -7054.4
2017 708,720.00 708720 724863.74 -16143.744
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 748,560.00 748560 748560 0 748560 0
2017 718,280.00 718280 742504.00 -1211.20 748560 -30280
2017 708,720.00 708720 734778.24 -2514.11 741292.8 -32572.8
2018 666,776.00 666776 732264.13 -65488.128
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 718,280.00 718280 718280 0 718280 0
2017 708,720.00 708720 716368.00 -382.40 718280 -9560
2018 666,776.00 666776 706143.68 -2350.78 715985.6 -49209.6
2018 700,079.00 700079 703792.90 -3713.896
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 708,720.00 708720 708720 0 708720 0
2018 666,776.00 666776 700331.20 -1677.76 708720 -41944
2018 700,079.00 700079 698938.55 -1620.74 698653.44 1425.56
2018 790,646.00 790646 697317.81 93328.1856
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 666,776.00 666776 666776 0 666776 0
2018 700,079.00 700079 673436.60 1332.12 666776 33303
2018 790,646.00 790646 697944.18 5967.21 674768.72 115877.28
2018 654,346.00 654346 703911.39 -49565.3872
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 700,079.00 700079 700079 0 700079 0
2018 790,646.00 790646 718192.40 3622.68 700079 90567
2018 654,346.00 654346 708321.26 923.92 721815.08 -67469.08
2018 734,778.00 734778 709245.18 25532.8192
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 790,646.00 790646 790646 0 790646 0
2018 654,346.00 654346 763386.00 -5452.00 790646 -136300
2018 734,778.00 734778 753302.80 -6378.24 757934 -23156
2018 687,656.00 687656 746924.56 -59268.56
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 654,346.00 654346 654346 0 654346 0
2018 734,778.00 734778 670432.40 3217.28 654346 80432
2018 687,656.00 687656 676450.94 3777.53 673649.68 14006.32
2018 635,678.00 635678 680228.48 -44550.4768
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 734,778.00 734778 734778 0 734778 0
2018 687,656.00 687656 725353.60 -1884.88 734778 -47122
2018 635,678.00 635678 705910.58 -5396.51 723468.72 -87790.72
2018 654,788.00 654788 700514.07 -45726.0672
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 687,656.00 687656 687656 0 687656 0
2018 635,678.00 635678 677260.40 -2079.12 687656 -51978
2018 654,788.00 654788 671102.62 -2894.85 675181.28 -20393.28
2018 690,807.00 690807 668207.77 22599.2272
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 635,678.00 635678 635678 0 635678 0
2018 654,788.00 654788 639500.00 764.40 635678 19110
2018 690,807.00 690807 650372.92 2786.10 640264.4 50542.6
2018 656,556.00 656556 653159.02 3396.976
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 654,788.00 654788 654788 0 654788 0
2018 690,807.00 690807 661991.80 1440.76 654788 36019
2018 656,556.00 656556 662057.25 1165.70 663432.56 -6876.56
2018 676,655.00 676655 663222.95 13432.0544
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 690,807.00 690807 690807 0 690807 0
2018 656,556.00 656556 683956.80 -1370.04 690807 -34251
2018 676,655.00 676655 681400.41 -1607.31 682586.76 -5931.76
2018 738,900.00 738900 679793.10 59106.9024
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 656,556.00 656556 656556 0 656556 0
2018 676,655.00 676655 660575.80 803.96 656556 20099
2018 738,900.00 738900 676883.81 3904.77 661379.76 77520.24
2019 680788.58
total
mad
mape
Dengan Data Acuan 3 Bulan

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jan 2016 706,480.00
15604 0.022586 feb 2016 690,876.00
7152.96 0.010076 mar 2016 709,888.00
16827.5904 0.024494 apr 2016 687,000.00
22756.96 0.032662 total
11378.48 mad
1.633% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 feb 2016 690,876.00
19012 0.026782 mar 2016 709,888.00
8438.88 0.012284 apr 2016 687,000.00
4525.9712 0.006478 mei 2016 698,700.00
27450.88 0.039065 total
13725.44 mad
1.953% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mar 2016 709,888.00
22888 0.033316 apr 2016 687,000.00
5694.88 0.008151 mei 2016 698,700.00
17887.4112 0.024844 jun 2016 720,000.00
28582.88 0.041467 total
14291.44 mad
2.073% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 apr 2016 687,000.00
11700 0.016745 mei 2016 698,700.00
30192 0.041933 jun 2016 720,000.00
71377.92 0.092831 jul 2016 768,900.00
41892.00 0.058679 total
20946 mad
2.934% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mei 2016 698,700.00
21300 0.029583 jun 2016 720,000.00
65088 0.084651 jul 2016 768,900.00
60614.88 0.077622 ags 2016 780,900.00
86388.00 0.114234 total
43194 mad
5.712% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jun 2016 720,000.00
48900 0.063597 jul 2016 768,900.00
49164 0.062958 ags 2016 780,900.00
145391.36 0.242279 sep 2016 600,100.00
98064.00 0.126555 total
49032 mad
6.328% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jul 2016 768,900.00
12000 0.015367 ags 2016 780,900.00
171680 0.286086 sep 2016 600,100.00
90556.8 0.141385 okt 2016 640,500.00
183680.00 0.301453 total
91840 mad
15.073% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 ags 2016 780,900.00
180800 0.301283 sep 2016 600,100.00
97008 0.151457 okt 2016 640,500.00
28018.08 0.041265 nov 2016 678,976.00
277808.00 0.45274 total
138904 mad
22.637% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 sep 2016 600,100.00
40400 0.063076 okt 2016 640,500.00
69180 0.101889 nov 2016 678,976.00
61984.8 0.089833 des 2016 690,000.00
109580.00 0.164964 total
54790 mad
8.248% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 okt 2016 640,500.00
38476 0.056668 nov 2016 678,976.00
40265.76 0.058356 des 2016 690,000.00
74082.9376 0.10079 jan 2017 735,020.00
78741.76 0.115024 total
39370.88 mad
5.751% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 nov 2016 678,976.00
11024 0.015977 des 2016 690,000.00
53398.24 0.072649 jan 2017 735,020.00
48481.7024 0.06522 feb 2017 743,360.00
64422.24 0.088626 total
32211.12 mad
4.431% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 des 2016 690,000.00
45020 0.06125 jan 2017 735,020.00
42555.2 0.057247 feb 2017 743,360.00
24258.848 0.035231 mar 2017 688,560.00
87575.20 0.118497 total
43787.6 mad
5.925% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jan 2017 735,020.00
8340 0.011219 feb 2017 743,360.00
48461.6 0.070381 mar 2017 688,560.00
20344.416 0.028842 apr 2017 705,380.00
56801.60 0.0816 total
28400.8 mad
4.080% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 feb 2017 743,360.00
54800 0.079586 mar 2017 688,560.00
24828 0.035198 apr 2017 705,380.00
11942.72 0.016271 mei 2017 734,000.00
79628.00 0.114784 total
39814 mad
5.739% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mar 2017 688,560.00
16820 0.023845 apr 2017 705,380.00
41403.2 0.056408 mei 2017 734,000.00
12646.368 0.018313 jun 2017 690,560.00
58223.20 0.080253 total
29111.6 mad
4.013% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 apr 2017 705,380.00
28620 0.038992 mei 2017 734,000.00
21688.8 0.031408 jun 2017 690,560.00
7288.288 0.010398 jul 2017 700,900.00
50308.80 0.070399 total
25154.4 mad
3.520% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mei 2017 734,000.00
43440 0.062905 jun 2017 690,560.00
22674.4 0.03235 jul 2017 700,900.00
29085.056 0.039015 ags 2017 745,480.00
66114.40 0.095256 total
33057.2 mad
4.763% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jun 2017 690,560.00
10340 0.014752 jul 2017 700,900.00
52438.4 0.070342 ags 2017 745,480.00
11959.584 0.016657 sep 2017 718,000.00
62778.40 0.085094 total
31389.2 mad
4.255% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jul 2017 700,900.00
44580 0.0598 ags 2017 745,480.00
6400.8 0.008915 sep 2017 718,000.00
33641.408 0.044941 okt 2017 748,560.00
50980.80 0.068715 total
25490.4 mad
3.436% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 ags 2017 745,480.00
27480 0.038273 sep 2017 718,000.00
9675.2 0.012925 okt 2017 748,560.00
21827.648 0.030389 nov 2017 718,280.00
37155.20 0.051198 total
18577.6 mad
2.560% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 sep 2017 718,000.00
30560 0.040825 okt 2017 748,560.00
7054.4 0.009821 nov 2017 718,280.00
16143.744 0.022779 des 2017 708,720.00
37614.40 0.050646 total
18807.2 mad
2.532% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 okt 2017 748,560.00
30280 0.042156 nov 2017 718,280.00
32572.8 0.04596 des 2017 708,720.00
65488.128 0.098216 jan 2018 666,776.00
62852.80 0.088116 total
31426.4 mad
4.406% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 nov 2017 718,280.00
9560 0.013489 des 2017 708,720.00
49209.6 0.073802 jan 2018 666,776.00
3713.896 0.005305 feb 2018 700,079.00
58769.60 0.087291 total
29384.8 mad
4.365% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 des 2017 708,720.00
41944 0.062906 jan 2018 666,776.00
1425.56 0.002036 feb 2018 700,079.00
93328.1856 0.11804 mar 2018 790,646.00
43369.56 0.064942 total
21684.78 mad
3.247% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jan 2018 666,776.00
33303 0.04757 feb 2018 700,079.00
115877.28 0.14656 mar 2018 790,646.00
49565.3872 0.075748 apr 2018 654,346.00
149180.28 0.194131 total
74590.14 mad
9.707% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 feb 2018 700,079.00
90567 0.114548 mar 2018 790,646.00
67469.08 0.103109 apr 2018 654,346.00
25532.8192 0.034749 may 2018 734,778.00
158036.08 0.217657 total
79018.04 mad
10.883% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mar 2018 790,646.00
136300 0.2083 apr 2018 654,346.00
23156 0.031514 may 2018 734,778.00
59268.56 0.086189 jun 2018 687,656.00
159456.00 0.239814 total
79728 mad
11.991% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 apr 2018 654,346.00
80432 0.109464 may 2018 734,778.00
14006.32 0.020368 jun 2018 687,656.00
44550.4768 0.070083 jul 2018 635,678.00
94438.32 0.129833 total
47219.16 mad
6.492% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 may 2018 734,778.00
47122 0.068526 jun 2018 687,656.00
87790.72 0.138106 jul 2018 635,678.00
45726.0672 0.069833 aug 2018 654,788.00
134912.72 0.206631 total
67456.36 mad
10.332% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jun 2018 687,656.00
51978 0.081768 jul 2018 635,678.00
20393.28 0.031145 aug 2018 654,788.00
22599.2272 0.032714 sep 2018 690,807.00
72371.28 0.112913 total
36185.64 mad
5.646% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jul 2018 635,678.00
19110 0.029185 aug 2018 654,788.00
50542.6 0.073165 sep 2018 690,807.00
3396.976 0.005174 oct 2018 656,556.00
69652.60 0.10235 total
34826.3 mad
5.117% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 aug 2018 654,788.00
36019 0.05214 sep 2018 690,807.00
6876.56 0.010474 oct 2018 656,556.00
13432.0544 0.019851 nov 2018 676,655.00
42895.56 0.062614 total
21447.78 mad
3.131% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 sep 2018 690,807.00
34251 0.052168 oct 2018 656,556.00
5931.76 0.008766 nov 2018 676,655.00
59106.9024 0.079993 dec 2018 738,900.00
40182.76 0.060934 total
20091.38 mad
3.047% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 oct 2018 656,556.00
20099 0.029703 nov 2018 676,655.00
77520.24 0.104913 dec 2018 738,900.00
jan 2019
97619.24 0.134617 total
48809.62 mad
6.731% mape
level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
706480 706480 0 706480 0 0
690876 701798.80 -1404.36 706480 -15604 15604 0.022586
709888 703242.51 -549.94 700394.44 9493.56 9493.56 0.013373
687000 702692.57 -15692.5684 15692.5684 0.022842
total 25097.56 0.035959
mad 12548.78
mape 1.798%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690876 690876 0 690876 0 0
709888 696579.60 1711.08 690876 19012 19012 0.026782
687000 694903.48 694.92 698290.68 -11290.68 11290.68 0.016435
698700 695598.39 3101.6052 3101.6052 0.004439
total 30302.68 0.043216
mad 15151.34
mape 2.161%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


709888 709888 0 709888 0 0
687000 703021.60 -2059.92 709888 -22888 22888 0.033316
698700 700283.18 -2263.47 700961.68 -2261.68 2261.68 0.003237
720000 698019.70 21980.2952 21980.2952 0.030528
total 25149.68 0.036553
mad 12574.84
mape 1.828%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


687000 687000 0 687000 0 0
698700 690510.00 1053.00 687000 11700 11700 0.016745
720000 700094.10 3612.33 691563 28437 28437 0.039496
768900 703706.43 65193.57 65193.57 0.084788
total 40137.00 0.056241
mad 20068.5
mape 2.812%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


698700 698700 0 698700 0 0
720000 705090.00 1917.00 698700 21300 21300 0.029583
768900 725574.90 7487.37 707007 61893 61893 0.080496
780900 733062.27 47837.73 47837.73 0.06126
total 83193.00 0.110079
mad 41596.5
mape 5.504%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


720000 720000 0 720000 0 0
768900 734670.00 4401.00 720000 48900 48900 0.063597
780900 751619.70 8165.61 739071 41829 41829 0.053565
600100 759785.31 -159685.31 159685.31 0.266098
total 90729.00 0.117162
mad 45364.5
mape 5.858%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


768900 768900 0 768900 0 0
780900 772500.00 1080.00 768900 12000 12000 0.015367
600100 721536.00 -14533.20 773580 -173480 173480 0.289085
640500 707002.80 -66502.8 66502.8 0.10383
total 185480.00 0.304452
mad 92740
mape 15.223%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


780900 780900 0 780900 0 0
600100 726660.00 -16272.00 780900 -180800 180800 0.301283
640500 689421.60 -22561.92 710388 -69888 69888 0.109115
678976 666859.68 12116.32 12116.32 0.017845
total 250688.00 0.410398
mad 125344
mape 20.520%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


600100 600100 0 600100 0 0
640500 612220.00 3636.00 600100 40400 40400 0.063076
678976 634792.00 9316.80 615856 63120 63120 0.092964
690000 644108.80 45891.2 45891.2 0.066509
total 103520.00 0.156039
mad 51760
mape 7.802%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


640500 640500 0 640500 0 0
678976 652042.80 3462.84 640500 38476 38476 0.056668
690000 665853.95 6567.33 655505.64 34494.36 34494.36 0.049992
735020 672421.28 62598.7196 62598.7196 0.085166
total 72970.36 0.10666
mad 36485.18
mape 5.333%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


678976 678976 0 678976 0 0
690000 682283.20 992.16 678976 11024 11024 0.015977
735020 698798.75 5649.18 683275.36 51744.64 51744.64 0.070399
743360 704447.93 38912.0704 38912.0704 0.052346
total 62768.64 0.086376
mad 31384.32
mape 4.319%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690000 690000 0 690000 0 0
735020 703506.00 4051.80 690000 45020 45020 0.06125
743360 718298.46 7274.00 707557.8 35802.2 35802.2 0.048163
688560 725572.46 -37012.458 37012.458 0.053753
total 80822.20 0.109413
mad 40411.1
mape 5.471%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


735020 735020 0 735020 0 0
743360 737522.00 750.60 735020 8340 8340 0.011219
688560 723358.82 -3723.53 738272.6 -49712.6 49712.6 0.072198
705380 719635.29 -14255.286 14255.286 0.020209
total 58052.60 0.083417
mad 29026.3
mape 4.171%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


743360 743360 0 743360 0 0
688560 726920.00 -4932.00 743360 -54800 54800 0.079586
705380 717005.60 -6426.72 721988 -16608 16608 0.023545
734000 710578.88 23421.12 23421.12 0.031909
total 71408.00 0.103131
mad 35704
mape 5.157%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


688560 688560 0 688560 0 0
705380 693606.00 1513.80 688560 16820 16820 0.023845
734000 706783.86 5013.02 695119.8 38880.2 38880.2 0.05297
690560 711796.88 -21236.878 21236.878 0.030753
total 55700.20 0.076816
mad 27850.1
mape 3.841%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


705380 705380 0 705380 0 0
734000 713966.00 2575.80 705380 28620 28620 0.038992
690560 708747.26 237.44 716541.8 -25981.8 25981.8 0.037624
700900 708984.70 -8084.698 8084.698 0.011535
total 54601.80 0.076616
mad 27300.9
mape 3.831%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


734000 734000 0 734000 0 0
690560 720968.00 -3909.60 734000 -43440 43440 0.062905
700900 712210.88 -5363.86 717058.4 -16158.4 16158.4 0.023054
745480 706847.02 38632.976 38632.976 0.051823
total 59598.40 0.085959
mad 29799.2
mape 4.298%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690560 690560 0 690560 0 0
700900 693662.00 930.60 690560 10340 10340 0.014752
745480 709858.82 5510.47 694592.6 50887.4 50887.4 0.068261
718000 715369.29 2630.714 2630.714 0.003664
total 61227.40 0.083014
mad 30613.7
mape 4.151%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


700900 700900 0 700900 0 0
745480 714274.00 4012.20 700900 44580 44580 0.0598
718000 718200.34 3986.44 718286.2 -286.2 286.2 0.000399
748560 722186.78 26373.218 26373.218 0.035232
total 44866.20 0.060199
mad 22433.1
mape 3.010%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


745480 745480 0 745480 0 0
718000 737236.00 -2473.20 745480 -27480 27480 0.038273
748560 738901.96 -1231.45 734762.8 13797.2 13797.2 0.018432
718280 737670.51 -19390.508 19390.508 0.026996
total 41277.20 0.056705
mad 20638.6
mape 2.835%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718000 718000 0 718000 0 0
748560 727168.00 2750.40 718000 30560 30560 0.040825
718280 726426.88 1702.94 729918.4 -11638.4 11638.4 0.016203
708720 728129.82 -19409.824 19409.824 0.027387
total 42198.40 0.057028
mad 21099.2
mape 2.851%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


748560 748560 0 748560 0 0
718280 739476.00 -2725.20 748560 -30280 30280 0.042156
708720 728341.56 -5247.97 736750.8 -28030.8 28030.8 0.039551
666776 723093.59 -56317.588 56317.588 0.084463
total 58310.80 0.081708
mad 29155.4
mape 4.085%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718280 718280 0 718280 0 0
708720 715412.00 -860.40 718280 -9560 9560 0.013489
666776 700218.92 -5160.20 714551.6 -47775.6 47775.6 0.071652
700079 695058.72 5020.284 5020.284 0.007171
total 57335.60 0.085141
mad 28667.8
mape 4.257%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


708720 708720 0 708720 0 0
666776 696136.80 -3774.96 708720 -41944 41944 0.062906
700079 694676.99 -3080.42 692361.84 7717.16 7717.16 0.011023
790646 691596.57 99049.4276 99049.4276 0.125277
total 49661.16 0.073929
mad 24830.58
mape 3.696%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


666776 666776 0 666776 0 0
700079 676766.90 2997.27 666776 33303 33303 0.04757
790646 713028.72 12976.63 679764.17 110881.83 110881.83 0.140242
654346 726005.35 -71659.3537 71659.3537 0.109513
total 144184.83 0.187812
mad 72092.415
mape 9.391%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


700079 700079 0 700079 0 0
790646 727249.10 8151.03 700079 90567 90567 0.114548
654346 711083.89 856.16 735400.13 -81054.13 81054.13 0.12387
734778 711940.05 22837.9507 22837.9507 0.031081
total 171621.13 0.238419
mad 85810.565
mape 11.921%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


790646 790646 0 790646 0 0
654346 749756.00 -12267.00 790646 -136300 136300 0.2083
734778 736675.70 -12510.99 737489 -2711 2711 0.00369
687656 724164.71 -36508.71 36508.71 0.053092
total 139011.00 0.211989
mad 69505.5
mape 10.599%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


654346 654346 0 654346 0 0
734778 678475.60 7238.88 654346 80432 80432 0.109464
687656 686296.94 7413.62 685714.48 1941.52 1941.52 0.002823
635678 693710.55 -58032.5528 58032.5528 0.091292
total 82373.52 0.112288
mad 41186.76
mape 5.614%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


734778 734778 0 734778 0 0
687656 720641.40 -4240.98 734778 -47122 47122 0.068526
635678 692183.69 -11506.00 716400.42 -80722.42 80722.42 0.126986
654788 680677.70 -25889.6962 25889.6962 0.039539
total 127844.42 0.195512
mad 63922.21
mape 9.776%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


687656 687656 0 687656 0 0
635678 672062.60 -4678.02 687656 -51978 51978 0.081768
654788 663605.61 -5811.71 667384.58 -12596.58 12596.58 0.019238
690807 657793.89 33013.1062 33013.1062 0.047789
total 64574.58 0.101005
mad 32287.29
mape 5.050%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


635678 635678 0 635678 0 0
654788 641411.00 1719.90 635678 19110 19110 0.029185
690807 657433.73 6010.75 643130.9 47676.1 47676.1 0.069015
656556 663444.48 -6888.479 6888.479 0.010492
total 66786.10 0.0982
mad 33393.05
mape 4.910%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


654788 654788 0 654788 0 0
690807 665593.70 3241.71 654788 36019 36019 0.05214
656556 665151.59 2136.56 668835.41 -12279.41 12279.41 0.018703
676655 667288.15 9366.8499 9366.8499 0.013843
total 48298.41 0.070843
mad 24149.205
mape 3.542%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690807 690807 0 690807 0 0
656556 680531.70 -3082.59 690807 -34251 34251 0.052168
676655 677210.88 -3154.06 677449.11 -794.11 794.11 0.001174
738900 674056.82 64843.1829 64843.1829 0.087756
total 35045.11 0.053341
mad 17522.555
mape 2.667%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


656556 656556 0 656556 0 0
676655 662585.70 1808.91 656556 20099 20099 0.029703
738900 686746.23 8514.40 664394.61 74505.39 74505.39 0.100833
695260.62
total 94604.39 0.130536
mad 47302.195
mape 6.527%
Dengan Data Acuan 3 Bulan

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480 0
feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 700238.40 -2496.64
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 702600.26 -553.24
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 690876 0
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 698480.80 3041.92
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 695713.63 718.28
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 709888 0
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 700732.80 -3662.08
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 697722.43 -3401.40
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 687000 0
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 691680.00 1872.00
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 704131.20 6103.68
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 698700 0
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 707220.00 3408.00
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 733936.80 12731.52
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 720000 0
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 739560.00 7824.00
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 760790.40 13186.56
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 768900 0
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 773700.00 1920.00
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 705412.00 -26163.20
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780900 0
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 708580.00 -28928.00
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 663991.20 -35192.32
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 600100 0
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 616260.00 6464.00
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 645224.80 15464.32
des 2016 690,000.00 690000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 640500 0
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 655890.40 6156.16
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 673227.94 10628.71
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 678976 0
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 683385.60 1763.84
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 705097.66 9743.13
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690000 0
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 708008.00 7203.20
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 726470.72 11707.01
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 735020 0
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 738356.00 1334.40
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 719238.24 -6846.46
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 743360 0
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 721440.00 -8768.00
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 709755.20 -9934.72
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 688560 0
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 695288.00 2691.20
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 712387.52 8454.53
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 705380 0
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 716828.00 4579.20
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 709068.32 -356.35
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 734000 0
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 716624.00 -6950.40
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 706164.16 -8354.18
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 690560 0
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 694696.00 1654.40
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 716002.24 9515.14
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 700900 0
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 718732.00 7132.80
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 722718.88 5874.43
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 745480 0
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 734488.00 -4396.80
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 737478.72 -1441.79
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 718000 0
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 730224.00 4889.60
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 728380.16 2196.22
des 2017 708,720.00 708720
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 748560 0
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 736448.00 -4844.80
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 722449.92 -8506.11
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 718280 0
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 714456.00 -1529.60
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 694466.24 -8913.66
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708720 0
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 691942.40 -6711.04
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 691170.42 -4335.42
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 666776 0
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 680097.20 5328.48
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 727513.81 22163.73
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 700079 0
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 736305.80 14490.72
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 712216.31 -941.36
may 2018 734,778.00 734778
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 790646 0
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 736126.00 -21808.00
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 722502.00 -18534.40
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 654346 0
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 686518.80 12869.12
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 694695.15 10992.01
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


may 2018 734,778.00 734778 734778 0
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 715929.20 -7539.52
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 679305.01 -19173.39
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 687656 0
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 666864.80 -8316.48
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 657044.19 -8918.13
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 635678 0
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 643322.00 3057.60
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 664150.56 10165.98
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 654788 0
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 669195.60 5763.04
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 667597.58 2818.62
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 690807 0
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 677106.60 -5480.16
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 673637.86 -4675.59
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 656556 0
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 664595.60 3215.84
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 696246.86 14590.01
jan 2019
total
mad
mape
Dengan Data Acuan 3 Bulan

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


706480 0 0 jan 2016
706480 -15604 15604 0.022586 feb 2016
697741.76 12146.24 12146.24 0.01711 mar 2016
702047.01 -15047.0144 15047.0144 0.021902 apr 2016
27750.24 0.039696
13875.12
1.985%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


690876 0 0 feb 2016
690876 19012 19012 0.026782 mar 2016
701522.72 -14522.72 14522.72 0.021139 apr 2016
696431.92 2268.0832 2268.0832 0.003246 mei 2016
33534.72 0.047921
16767.36
2.396%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


709888 0 0 mar 2016
709888 -22888 22888 0.033316 apr 2016
697070.72 1629.28 1629.28 0.002332 mei 2016
694321.04 25678.9632 25678.9632 0.035665 jun 2016
24517.28 0.035648
12258.64
1.782%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


687000 0 0 apr 2016
687000 11700 11700 0.016745 mei 2016
693552 26448 26448 0.036733 jun 2016
710234.88 58665.12 58665.12 0.076297 jul 2016
38148.00 0.053479
19074
2.674%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


698700 0 0 mei 2016
698700 21300 21300 0.029583 jun 2016
710628 58272 58272 0.075786 jul 2016
746668.32 34231.68 34231.68 0.043836 ags 2016
79572.00 0.10537
39786
5.268%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


720000 0 0 jun 2016
720000 48900 48900 0.063597 jul 2016
747384 33516 33516 0.04292 ags 2016
773976.96 -173876.96 173876.96 0.289747 sep 2016
82416.00 0.106517
41208
5.326%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


768900 0 0 jul 2016
768900 12000 12000 0.015367 ags 2016
775620 -175520 175520 0.292485 sep 2016
679248.80 -38748.8 38748.8 0.060498 okt 2016
187520.00 0.307851
93760
15.393%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


780900 0 0 ags 2016
780900 -180800 180800 0.301283 sep 2016
679652 -39152 39152 0.061127 okt 2016
628798.88 50177.12 50177.12 0.073901 nov 2016
219952.00 0.36241
109976
18.121%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


600100 0 0 sep 2016
600100 40400 40400 0.063076 okt 2016
622724 56252 56252 0.082848 nov 2016
660689.12 29310.88 29310.88 0.04248 des 2016
96652.00 0.145924
48326
7.296%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


640500 0 0 okt 2016
640500 38476 38476 0.056668 nov 2016
662046.56 27953.44 27953.44 0.040512 des 2016
683856.65 51163.3536 51163.3536 0.069608 jan 2017
66429.44 0.09718
33214.72
4.859%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


678976 0 0 nov 2016
678976 11024 11024 0.015977 des 2016
685149.44 49870.56 49870.56 0.067849 jan 2017
714840.79 28519.2064 28519.2064 0.038365 feb 2017
60894.56 0.083826
30447.28
4.191%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


690000 0 0 des 2016
690000 45020 45020 0.06125 jan 2017
715211.2 28148.8 28148.8 0.037867 feb 2017
738177.73 -49617.728 49617.728 0.07206 mar 2017
73168.80 0.099117
36584.4
4.956%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


735020 0 0 jan 2017
735020 8340 8340 0.011219 feb 2017
739690.4 -51130.4 51130.4 0.074257 mar 2017
712391.78 -7011.776 7011.776 0.00994 apr 2017
59470.40 0.085476
29735.2
4.274%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


743360 0 0 feb 2017
743360 -54800 54800 0.079586 mar 2017
712672 -7292 7292 0.010338 apr 2017
699820.48 34179.52 34179.52 0.046566 mei 2017
62092.00 0.089924
31046
4.496%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


688560 0 0 mar 2017
688560 6728.00 6728 0.009538 apr 2017
697979.2 14408.32 14408.32 0.01963 mei 2017
720842.05 -720842.05 720842.048 1.043851 jun 2017
21136.32 0.029168
10568.16
1.458%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


705380 0 0 apr 2017
705380 28620 28620 0.038992 mei 2017
721407.2 -30847.2 30847.2 0.04467 jun 2017
708711.97 -7811.968 7811.968 0.011146 jul 2017
59467.20 0.083662
29733.6
4.183%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


734000 0 0 mei 2017
734000 -43440 43440 0.062905 jun 2017
709673.6 -8773.6 8773.6 0.012518 jul 2017
697809.98 47670.016 47670.016 0.063945 ags 2017
52213.60 0.075423
26106.8
3.771%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


690560 0 0 jun 2017
690560 10340 10340 0.014752 jul 2017
696350.4 49129.6 49129.6 0.065903 ags 2017
725517.38 -7517.376 7517.376 0.01047 sep 2017
59469.60 0.080656
29734.8
4.033%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


700900 0 0 jul 2017
700900 44580 44580 0.0598 ags 2017
725864.8 -7864.8 7864.8 0.010954 sep 2017
728593.31 19966.688 19966.688 0.026673 okt 2017
52444.80 0.070754
26222.4
3.538%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


745480 0 0 ags 2017
745480 -27480 27480 0.038273 sep 2017
730091.2 18468.8 18468.8 0.024672 okt 2017
736036.93 -17756.928 17756.928 0.024721 nov 2017
45948.80 0.062945
22974.4
3.147%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


718000 0 0 sep 2017
718000 30560 30560 0.040825 okt 2017
735113.6 -16833.6 16833.6 0.023436 nov 2017
730576.38 -21856.384 21856.384 0.030839 des 2017
47393.60 0.064261
23696.8
3.213%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


748560 0 0 okt 2017
748560 -30280 30280 0.042156 nov 2017
731603.2 -22883.2 22883.2 0.032288 des 2017
713943.81 -47167.808 47167.808 0.07074 jan 2018
53163.20 0.074444
26581.6
3.722%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


718280 0 0 nov 2017
718280 -9560 9560 0.013489 des 2017
712926.4 -46150.4 46150.4 0.069214 jan 2018
685552.58 14526.424 14526.424 0.02075 feb 2018
55710.40 0.082703
27855.2
4.135%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


708720 0 0 des 2017
708720 -41944 41944 0.062906 jan 2018
685231.36 14847.64 14847.64 0.021209 feb 2018
686835.00 103811.002 103811.0016 0.131299 mar 2018
56791.64 0.084114
28395.82
4.206%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


666776 0 0 jan 2018
666776 33303 33303 0.04757 feb 2018
685425.68 105220.32 105220.32 0.133081 mar 2018
749677.54 -95331.5392 95331.5392 0.14569 apr 2018
138523.32 0.180652
69261.66
9.033%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


700079 0 0 feb 2018
700079 90567 90567 0.114548 mar 2018
750796.52 -96450.52 96450.52 0.1474 apr 2018
711274.95 23503.0512 23503.0512 0.031987 may 2018
187017.52 0.261948
93508.76
13.097%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


790646 0 0 mar 2018
790646 -136300 136300 0.2083 apr 2018
714318 20460 20460 0.027845 may 2018
703967.60 -16311.6 16311.6 0.023721 jun 2018
156760.00 0.236145
78380
11.807%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


654346 0 0 apr 2018
654346 80432 80432 0.109464 may 2018
699387.92 -11731.92 11731.92 0.017061 jun 2018
705687.16 -70009.1648 70009.1648 0.110133 jul 2018
92163.92 0.126525
46081.96
6.326%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


734778 0 0 may 2018
734778 -47122 47122 0.068526 jun 2018
708389.68 -72711.68 72711.68 0.114384 jul 2018
660131.62 -5343.6192 5343.6192 0.008161 aug 2018
119833.68 0.18291
59916.84
9.145%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


687656 0 0 jun 2018
687656 -51978 51978 0.081768 jul 2018
658548.32 -3760.32 3760.32 0.005743 aug 2018
648126.06 42680.9392 42680.9392 0.061784 sep 2018
55738.32 0.087511
27869.16
4.376%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


635678 0 0 jul 2018
635678 19110 19110 0.029185 aug 2018
646379.6 44427.4 44427.4 0.064312 sep 2018
674316.54 -17760.544 17760.544 0.027051 oct 2018
63537.40 0.093497
31768.7
4.675%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


654788 0 0 aug 2018
654788 36019 36019 0.05214 sep 2018
674958.64 -18402.64 18402.64 0.028029 oct 2018
670416.20 6238.7984 6238.7984 0.00922 nov 2018
54421.64 0.08017
27210.82
4.008%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


690807 0 0 sep 2018
690807 -34251 34251 0.052168 oct 2018
671626.44 5028.56 5028.56 0.007431 nov 2018
668962.27 69937.7264 69937.7264 0.094651 dec 2018
39279.56 0.059599
19639.78
2.980%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN TAHUN


656556 0 0 oct 2018
656556 20099 20099 0.029703 nov 2018
667811.44 71088.56 71088.56 0.096209 dec 2018
710836.87 jan 2019
91187.56 0.125912
45593.78
6.296%
QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|
706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480 0 0
690,876.00 690876 698678.00 -3901.00 706480 -15604 15604
709,888.00 709888 702332.50 -123.25 694777 15111 15111
687,000.00 687000 702209.25 -15209.25 15209.25
total 30715.00
mad 15357.5
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


690,876.00 690876 690876 0 690876 0 0
709,888.00 709888 700382.00 4753.00 690876 19012 19012
687,000.00 687000 696067.50 219.25 705135 -18135 18135
698,700.00 698700 696286.75 2413.25 2413.25
total 37147.00
mad 18573.5
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


709,888.00 709888 709888 0 709888 0 0
687,000.00 687000 698444.00 -5722.00 709888 -22888 22888
698,700.00 698700 695711.00 -4227.50 692722 5978 5978
720,000.00 720000 691483.50 28516.5 28516.5
total 28866.00
mad 14433
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


687,000.00 687000 687000 0 687000 0 0
698,700.00 698700 692850.00 2925.00 687000 11700 11700
720,000.00 720000 707887.50 8981.25 695775 24225 24225
768,900.00 768900 716868.75 52031.25 52031.25
total 35925.00
mad 17962.5
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


698,700.00 698700 698700 0 698700 0 0
720,000.00 720000 709350.00 5325.00 698700 21300 21300
768,900.00 768900 741787.50 18881.25 714675 54225 54225
780,900.00 780900 760668.75 20231.25 20231.25
total 75525.00
mad 37762.5
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


720,000.00 720000 720000 0 720000 0 0
768,900.00 768900 744450.00 12225.00 720000 48900 48900
780,900.00 780900 768787.50 18281.25 756675 24225 24225
600,100.00 600100 787068.75 -186968.75 186968.75
total 73125.00
mad 36562.5
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


768,900.00 768900 768900 0 768900 0 0
780,900.00 780900 774900.00 3000.00 768900 12000 12000
600,100.00 600100 689000.00 -41450.00 777900 -177800 177800
640,500.00 640500 647550.00 -7050 7050
total 189800.00
mad 94900
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


780,900.00 780900 780900 0 780900 0 0
600,100.00 600100 690500.00 -45200.00 780900 -180800 180800
640,500.00 640500 642900.00 -46400.00 645300 -4800 4800
678,976.00 678976 596500.00 82476 82476
total 185600.00
mad 92800
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


600,100.00 600100 600100 0 600100 0 0
640,500.00 640500 620300.00 10100.00 600100 40400 40400
678,976.00 678976 654688.00 22244.00 630400 48576 48576
690,000.00 690000 676932.00 13068 13068
total 88976.00
mad 44488
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


640,500.00 640500 640500 0 640500 0 0
678,976.00 678976 659738.00 9619.00 640500 38476 38476
690,000.00 690000 679678.50 14779.75 669357 20643 20643
735,020.00 735020 694458.25 40561.75 40561.75
total 59119.00
mad 29559.5
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


678,976.00 678976 678976 0 678976 0 0
690,000.00 690000 684488.00 2756.00 678976 11024 11024
735,020.00 735020 711132.00 14700.00 687244 47776 47776
743,360.00 743360 725832.00 17528 17528
total 58800.00
mad 29400
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


690,000.00 690000 690000 0 690000 0 0
735,020.00 735020 712510.00 11255.00 690000 45020 45020
743,360.00 743360 733562.50 16153.75 723765 19595 19595
688,560.00 688560 749716.25 -61156.25 61156.25
total 64615.00
mad 32307.5
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


735,020.00 735020 735020 0 735020 0 0
743,360.00 743360 739190.00 2085.00 735020 8340 8340
688,560.00 688560 714917.50 -11093.75 741275 -52715 52715
705,380.00 705380 703823.75 1556.25 1556.25
total 61055.00
mad 30527.5
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


743,360.00 743360 743360 0 743360 0 0
688,560.00 688560 715960.00 -13700.00 743360 -54800 54800
705,380.00 705380 703820.00 -12920.00 702260 3120 3120
734,000.00 734000 690900.00 43100 43100
total 57920.00
mad 28960
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


688,560.00 688560 688560 0 688560 0 0
705,380.00 705380 696970.00 4205.00 688560 8410.00 8410
734,000.00 734000 717587.50 12411.25 701175 16412.50 16412.5
690,560.00 690560 729998.75 -729998.75 729998.75
total 24822.50
mad 12411.25
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


705,380.00 705380 705380 0 705380 0 0
734,000.00 734000 719690.00 7155.00 705380 28620 28620
690,560.00 690560 708702.50 -1916.25 726845 -36285 36285
700,900.00 700900 706786.25 -5886.25 5886.25
total 64905.00
mad 32452.5
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


734,000.00 734000 734000 0 734000 0 0
690,560.00 690560 712280.00 -10860.00 734000 -43440 43440
700,900.00 700900 701160.00 -10990.00 701420 -520 520
745,480.00 745480 690170.00 55310 55310
total 43960.00
mad 21980
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


690,560.00 690560 690560 0 690560 0 0
700,900.00 700900 695730.00 2585.00 690560 10340 10340
745,480.00 745480 721897.50 14376.25 698315 47165 47165
718,000.00 718000 736273.75 -18273.75 18273.75
total 57505.00
mad 28752.5
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


700,900.00 700900 700900 0 700900 0 0
745,480.00 745480 723190.00 11145.00 700900 44580 44580
718,000.00 718000 726167.50 7061.25 734335 -16335 16335
748,560.00 748560 733228.75 15331.25 15331.25
total 60915.00
mad 30457.5
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


745,480.00 745480 745480 0 745480 0 0
718,000.00 718000 731740.00 -6870.00 745480 -27480 27480
748,560.00 748560 736715.00 -947.50 724870 23690 23690
718,280.00 718280 735767.50 -17487.5 17487.5
total 51170.00
mad 25585
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


718,000.00 718000 718000 0 718000 0 0
748,560.00 748560 733280.00 7640.00 718000 30560 30560
718,280.00 718280 729600.00 1980.00 740920 -22640 22640
708,720.00 708720 731580.00 -22860 22860
total 53200.00
mad 26600
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


748,560.00 748560 748560 0 748560 0 0
718,280.00 718280 733420.00 -7570.00 748560 -30280 30280
708,720.00 708720 717285.00 -11852.50 725850 -17130 17130
666,776.00 666776 705432.50 -38656.5 38656.5
total 47410.00
mad 23705
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


718,280.00 718280 718280 0 718280 0 0
708,720.00 708720 713500.00 -2390.00 718280 -9560 9560
666,776.00 666776 688943.00 -13473.50 711110 -44334 44334
700,079.00 700079 675469.50 24609.5 24609.5
total 53894.00
mad 26947
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


708,720.00 708720 708720 0 708720 0 0
666,776.00 666776 687748.00 -10486.00 708720 -41944 41944
700,079.00 700079 688670.50 -4781.75 677262 22817 22817
790,646.00 790646 683888.75 106757.25 106757.25
total 64761.00
mad 32380.5
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


666,776.00 666776 666776 0 666776 0 0
700,079.00 700079 683427.50 8325.75 666776 33303 33303
790,646.00 790646 741199.63 33048.94 691753.25 98892.75 98892.75
654,346.00 654346 774248.56 -119902.5625 119902.5625
total 132195.75
mad 66097.875
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


700,079.00 700079 700079 0 700079 0 0
790,646.00 790646 745362.50 22641.75 700079 90567 90567
654,346.00 654346 711175.13 -5772.81 768004.25 -113658.25 113658.25
734,778.00 734778 705402.31 29375.6875 29375.6875
total 204225.25
mad 102112.625
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


790,646.00 790646 790646 0 790646 0 0
654,346.00 654346 722496.00 -34075.00 790646 -136300 136300
734,778.00 734778 711599.50 -22485.75 688421 46357 46357
687,656.00 687656 689113.75 -1457.75 1457.75
total 182657.00
mad 91328.5
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


654,346.00 654346 654346 0 654346 0 0
734,778.00 734778 694562.00 20108.00 654346 80432 80432
687,656.00 687656 701163.00 13354.50 714670 -27014 27014
635,678.00 635678 714517.50 -78839.5 78839.5
total 107446.00
mad 53723
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


734,778.00 734778 734778 0 734778 0 0
687,656.00 687656 711217.00 -11780.50 734778 -47122 47122
635,678.00 635678 667557.25 -27720.13 699436.5 -63758.5 63758.5
654,788.00 654788 639837.13 14950.875 14950.875
total 110880.50
mad 55440.25
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


687,656.00 687656 687656 0 687656 0 0
635,678.00 635678 661667.00 -12994.50 687656 -51978 51978
654,788.00 654788 651730.25 -11465.63 648672.5 6115.5 6115.5
690,807.00 690807 640264.63 50542.375 50542.375
total 58093.50
mad 29046.75
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


635,678.00 635678 635678 0 635678 0 0
654,788.00 654788 645233.00 4777.50 635678 19110 19110
690,807.00 690807 670408.75 14976.63 650010.5 40796.5 40796.5
656,556.00 656556 685385.38 -28829.375 28829.375
total 59906.50
mad 29953.25
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


654,788.00 654788 654788 0 654788 0 0
690,807.00 690807 672797.50 9004.75 654788 36019 36019
656,556.00 656556 669179.13 2693.19 681802.25 -25246.25 25246.25
676,655.00 676655 671872.31 4782.6875 4782.6875
total 61265.25
mad 30632.625
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


690,807.00 690807 690807 0 690807 0 0
656,556.00 656556 673681.50 -8562.75 690807 -34251 34251
676,655.00 676655 670886.88 -5678.69 665118.75 11536.25 11536.25
738,900.00 738900 665208.19 73691.8125 73691.8125
total 45787.25
mad 22893.625
mape

QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error |error|


656,556.00 656556 656556 0 656556 0 0
676,655.00 676655 666605.50 5024.75 656556 20099 20099
738,900.00 738900 705265.13 21842.19 671630.25 67269.75 67269.75
727107.31
total 87368.75
mad 43684.375
mape
Dengan Data Acuan 3 Bulan

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480
0.022586 feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 697117.60
0.021286 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 702532.86
0.022139 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000
0.043872 total
mad
2.194% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 690876
0.026782 mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 702283.20
0.026397 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 695851.01
0.003454 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700
0.053179 total
mad
2.659% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 709888
0.033316 apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 696155.20
0.008556 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 694386.21
0.039606 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
0.041872 total
mad
2.094% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 687000
0.016745 mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 694020.00
0.033646 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 711292.80
0.06767 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
0.050391 total
mad
2.520% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 698700
0.029583 jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 711480.00
0.070523 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 748999.20
0.025908 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
0.100106 total
mad
5.005% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 720000
0.063597 jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 749340.00
0.031022 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 775317.60
0.311563 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
0.094619 total
mad
4.731% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 768900
0.015367 ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 776100.00
0.296284 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 672228.00
0.011007 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
0.311651 total
mad
15.583% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780900
0.301283 sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 672420.00
0.007494 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 627232.80
0.121471 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
0.308777 total
mad
15.439% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 600100
0.063076 okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 624340.00
0.071543 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 662939.20
0.018939 des 2016 690,000.00 690000
0.134619 total
mad
6.731% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 640500
0.056668 nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 663585.60
0.029917 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 684974.78
0.055185 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
0.086585 total
mad
4.329% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 678976
0.015977 des 2016 690,000.00 690000 685590.40
0.065 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 716835.62
0.023579 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
0.080976 total
mad
4.049% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690000
0.06125 jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 717012.00
0.02636 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 739303.68
0.088818 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
0.08761 total
mad
4.381% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 735020
0.011219 feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 740024.00
0.076558 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 710346.56
0.002206 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
0.087778 total
mad
4.389% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 743360
0.079586 mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 710480.00
0.004423 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699528.80
0.058719 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
0.08401 total
mad
4.200% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 688560
0.011923 apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 698652.00
0.02236 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 722282.88
1.057111 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
0.034283 total
mad
1.714% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 705380
0.038992 mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 722552.00
0.052544 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 707478.08
0.008398 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
0.091536 total
mad
4.577% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 734000
0.062905 jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 707936.00
0.000742 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 697459.04
0.074194 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
0.063647 total
mad
3.182% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 690560
0.014752 jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 696764.00
0.063268 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 727482.56
0.025451 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
0.07802 total
mad
3.901% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 700900
0.0598 ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 727648.00
0.022751 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 728278.72
0.020481 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
0.082551 total
mad
4.128% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 745480
0.038273 sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 728992.00
0.031647 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 736775.68
0.024346 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
0.06992 total
mad
3.496% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 718000
0.040825 okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 736336.00
0.03152 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 729903.04
0.032255 des 2017 708,720.00 708720
0.072345 total
mad
3.617% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 748560
0.042156 nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 730392.00
0.02417 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 713028.48
0.057975 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
0.066327 total
mad
3.316% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 718280
0.013489 des 2017 708,720.00 708720 712544.00
0.06649 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 683706.56
0.035152 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
0.079979 total
mad
3.999% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708720
0.062906 jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 683553.60
0.032592 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 687428.90
0.135025 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
0.095498 total
mad
4.775% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 666776
0.04757 feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 686757.80
0.125078 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 753886.35
0.18324 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
0.172649 total
mad
8.632% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 700079
0.114548 mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 754419.20
0.173697 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 707416.93
0.039979 may 2018 734,778.00 734778
0.288246 total
mad
14.412% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 790646
0.2083 apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 708866.00
0.06309 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 704786.00
0.00212 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
0.271389 total
mad
13.569% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 654346
0.109464 may 2018 734,778.00 734778 702605.20
0.039284 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 705217.89
0.124024 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
0.148749 total
mad
7.437% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


may 2018 734,778.00 734778 734778
0.068526 jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 706504.80
0.1003 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 657223.15
0.022833 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
0.168826 total
mad
8.441% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 687656
0.081768 jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 656469.20
0.00934 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 647975.65
0.073164 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
0.091107 total
mad
4.555% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 635678
0.029185 aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 647144.00
0.059056 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 676093.64
0.04391 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
0.088241 total
mad
4.412% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 654788
0.05214 sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 676399.40
0.038453 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 669680.10
0.007068 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
0.090593 total
mad
4.530% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 690807
0.052168 oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 670256.40
0.017049 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 669163.42
0.099732 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
0.069217 total
mad
3.461% mape

error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level


oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 656556
0.029703 nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 668615.40
0.09104 dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 713680.42
jan 2019
0.120744 total
mad
6.037% mape
Dengan Data Acuan 3 Bulan

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 706480 0 0 jan
-5617.44 706480 -15604 15604 0.022586 feb
1002.18 691500.16 18387.84 18387.84 0.025902 mar
703535.05 -16535.0464 16535.0464 0.024068 apr
33991.84 0.048488
16995.92
2.424%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 690876 0 0 feb
6844.32 690876 19012 19012 0.026782 mar
-1121.59 709127.52 -22127.52 22127.52 0.032209 apr
694729.42 3970.5792 3970.5792 0.005683 mei
41139.52 0.058991
20569.76
2.950%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 709888 0 0 mar
-8239.68 709888 -22888 22888 0.033316 apr
-4357.27 687915.52 10784.48 10784.48 0.015435 mei
690028.94 29971.0592 29971.0592 0.041626 jun
33672.48 0.048751
16836.24
2.438%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 687000 0 0 apr
4212.00 687000 11700 11700 0.016745 mei
12048.48 698232 21768 21768 0.030233 jun
723341.28 45558.72 45558.72 0.059252 jul
33468.00 0.046979
16734
2.349%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 698700 0 0 mei
7668.00 698700 21300 21300 0.029583 jun
25578.72 719148 49752 49752 0.064705 jul
774577.92 6322.08 6322.08 0.008096 ags
71052.00 0.094289
35526
4.714%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 720000 0 0 jun
17604.00 720000 48900 48900 0.063597 jul
22628.16 766944 13956 13956 0.017872 ags
797945.76 -197845.76 197845.76 0.329688 sep
62856.00 0.081469
31428
4.073%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 768900 0 0 jul
4320.00 768900 12000 12000 0.015367 ags
-60595.20 780420 -180320 180320 0.300483 sep
611632.80 28867.2 28867.2 0.04507 okt
192320.00 0.31585
96160
15.793%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 780900 0 0 ags
-65088.00 780900 -180800 180800 0.301283 sep
-53147.52 607332 33168 33168 0.051785 okt
574085.28 104890.72 104890.72 0.154484 nov
213968.00 0.353068
106984
17.653%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 600100 0 0 sep
14544.00 600100 40400 40400 0.063076 okt
28977.12 638884 40092 40092 0.059048 nov
691916.32 -1916.32 1916.32 0.002777 des
80492.00 0.122123
40246
6.106%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 640500 0 0 okt
13851.36 640500 38476 38476 0.056668 nov
18374.05 677436.96 12563.04 12563.04 0.018207 des
703348.84 31671.1616 31671.1616 0.043089 jan
51039.04 0.074875
25519.52
3.744%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 678976 0 0 nov
3968.64 678976 11024 11024 0.015977 des
20334.59 689559.04 45460.96 45460.96 0.06185 jan
737170.20 6189.7984 6189.7984 0.008327 feb
56484.96 0.077827
28242.48
3.891%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 690000 0 0 des
16207.20 690000 45020 45020 0.06125 jan
19857.89 733219.2 10140.8 10140.8 0.013642 feb
759161.57 -70601.568 70601.568 0.102535 mar
55160.80 0.074892
27580.4
3.745%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 735020 0 0 jan
3002.40 735020 8340 8340 0.011219 feb
-16605.50 743026.4 -54466.4 54466.4 0.079102 mar
693741.06 11638.944 11638.944 0.0165 apr
62806.40 0.090321
31403.2
4.516%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 743360 0 0 feb
-19728.00 743360 -54800 54800 0.079586 mar
-14461.92 690752 14628 14628 0.020738 apr
685066.88 48933.12 48933.12 0.066666 mei
69428.00 0.100324
34714
5.016%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 688560 0 0 mar
6055.20 688560 10092.00 10092 0.014307 apr
16600.61 704707.2 17575.68 17575.68 0.023945 mei
738883.49 -738883.49 738883.488 1.069977 jun
27667.68 0.038252
13833.84
1.913%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 705380 0 0 apr
10303.20 705380 28620 28620 0.038992 mei
-4923.07 732855.2 -42295.2 42295.2 0.061248 jun
702555.01 -1655.008 1655.008 0.002361 jul
70915.20 0.10024
35457.6
5.012%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 734000 0 0 mei
-15638.40 734000 -43440 43440 0.062905 jun
-12541.54 692297.6 8602.4 8602.4 0.012273 jul
684917.50 60562.496 60562.496 0.08124 ags
52042.40 0.075179
26021.2
3.759%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 690560 0 0 jun
3722.40 690560 10340 10340 0.014752 jul
19920.10 700486.4 44993.6 44993.6 0.060355 ags
747402.66 -29402.656 29402.656 0.040951 sep
84736.26 0.116058
2421.03589
5.803%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 700900 0 0 jul
16048.80 700900 44580 44580 0.0598 ags
6797.95 743696.8 -25696.8 25696.8 0.035789 sep
735076.67 13483.328 13483.328 0.018012 okt
70276.80 0.09559
35138.4
4.779%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 745480 0 0 ags
-9892.80 745480 -27480 27480 0.038273 sep
713.09 719099.2 29460.8 29460.8 0.039357 okt
737488.77 -19208.768 19208.768 0.026743 nov
56940.80 0.07763
28470.4
3.881%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 718000 0 0 sep
11001.60 718000 30560 30560 0.040825 okt
540.86 747337.6 -29057.6 29057.6 0.040454 nov
730443.90 -21723.904 21723.904 0.030652 des
59617.60 0.081279
29808.8
4.064%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 748560 0 0 okt
-10900.80 748560 -30280 30280 0.042156 nov
-14778.43 719491.2 -10771.2 10771.2 0.015198 des
698250.05 -31474.048 31474.048 0.047203 jan
41051.20 0.057354
20525.6
2.868%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 718280 0 0 nov
-3441.60 718280 -9560 9560 0.013489 des
-18679.10 709102.4 -42326.4 42326.4 0.063479 jan
665027.46 35051.544 35051.544 0.050068 feb
51886.40 0.076968
25943.2
3.848%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 708720 0 0 des
-15099.84 708720 -41944 41944 0.062906 jan
-3714.75 668453.76 31625.24 31625.24 0.045174 feb
683714.15 106931.8496 106931.85 0.135246 mar
73569.24 0.108079
36784.62
5.404%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 666776 0 0 jan
11989.08 666776 33303 33303 0.04757 feb
45072.76 698746.88 91899.12 91899.12 0.116233 mar
798959.12 -144613.1152 144613.115 0.221004 apr
125202.12 0.163803
62601.06
8.190%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 700079 0 0 feb
32604.12 700079 90567 90567 0.114548 mar
-15159.72 787023.32 -132677.32 132677.32 0.202763 apr
692257.21 42520.7872 42520.7872 0.057869 may
223244.32 0.317311
111622.16
15.866%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 790646 0 0 mar
-49068.00 790646 -136300 136300 0.2083 apr
-22075.20 659798 74980 74980 0.102044 may
682710.80 4945.2 4945.2 0.007191 jun
211280.00 0.310344
105640
15.517%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 654346 0 0 apr
28955.52 654346 80432 80432 0.109464 may
13149.82 731560.72 -43904.72 43904.72 0.063847 jun
718367.71 -82689.7088 82689.7088 0.130081 jul
124336.72 0.173311
62168.36
8.666%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 734778 0 0 may
-16963.92 734778 -47122 47122 0.068526 jun
-36354.56 689540.88 -53862.88 53862.88 0.084733 jul
620868.60 33919.4048 33919.4048 0.051802 aug
100984.88 0.153259
50492.44
7.663%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 687656 0 0 jun
-18712.08 687656 -51978 51978 0.081768 jul
-12580.96 637757.12 17030.88 17030.88 0.02601 aug
635394.68 55412.3152 55412.3152 0.080214 sep
69008.88 0.107778
34504.44
5.389%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 635678 0 0 jul
6879.60 635678 19110 19110 0.029185 aug
20121.62 654023.6 36783.4 36783.4 0.053247 sep
696215.26 -39659.264 39659.264 0.060405 oct
55893.40 0.082432
27946.7
4.122%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 654788 0 0 aug
12966.84 654788 36019 36019 0.05214 sep
1155.15 689366.24 -32810.24 32810.24 0.049973 oct
670835.25 5819.7504 5819.7504 0.008601 nov
68829.24 0.102114
34414.62
5.106%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 690807 0 0 sep
-12330.36 690807 -34251 34251 0.052168 oct
-5587.93 657926.04 18728.96 18728.96 0.027679 nov
663575.48 75324.5184 75324.5184 0.101941 dec
52979.96 0.079846
26489.98
3.992%

trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape BULAN


0 656556 0 0 oct
7235.64 656556 20099 20099 0.029703 nov
29933.27 675851.04 63048.96 63048.96 0.085328 dec
743613.68 jan
83147.96 0.115032
41573.98
5.752%
TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error
2016 706,480.00 706480 706480 0 706480 0
2016 690,876.00 690876 695557.20 -7645.96 706480 -15604
2016 709,888.00 709888 703294.97 3122.65 687911.24 21976.76
2016 687,000.00 687000 706417.62 -19417.6244
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 690,876.00 690876 690876 0 690876 0
2016 709,888.00 709888 704184.40 9315.88 690876 19012
2016 687,000.00 687000 694950.08 -3669.26 713500.28 -26500.28
2016 698,700.00 698700 691280.83 7419.1732
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 709,888.00 709888 709888 0 709888 0
2016 687,000.00 687000 693866.40 -11215.12 709888 -22888
2016 698,700.00 698700 693885.38 -3351.25 682651.28 16048.72
2016 720,000.00 720000 690534.14 29465.8632
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 687,000.00 687000 687000 0 687000 0
2016 698,700.00 698700 695190.00 5733.00 687000 11700
2016 720,000.00 720000 714276.90 15080.73 700923 19077
2016 768,900.00 768900 729357.63 39542.37
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 698,700.00 698700 698700 0 698700 0
2016 720,000.00 720000 713610.00 10437.00 698700 21300
2016 768,900.00 768900 755444.10 32414.97 724047 44853
2016 780,900.00 780900 787859.07 -6959.07
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 720,000.00 720000 720000 0 720000 0
2016 768,900.00 768900 754230.00 23961.00 720000 48900
2016 780,900.00 780900 780087.30 25288.41 778191 2709
2016 600,100.00 600100 805375.71 -205275.71
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 768,900.00 768900 768900 0 768900 0
2016 780,900.00 780900 777300.00 5880.00 768900 12000
2016 600,100.00 600100 655024.00 -83829.20 783180 -183080
2016 640,500.00 640500 571194.80 69305.2
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 780,900.00 780900 780900 0 780900 0
2016 600,100.00 600100 654340.00 -88592.00 780900 -180800
2016 640,500.00 640500 618074.40 -51963.52 565748 74752
2016 678,976.00 678976 566110.88 112865.12
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 600,100.00 600100 600100 0 600100 0
2016 640,500.00 640500 628380.00 19796.00 600100 40400
2016 678,976.00 678976 669736.00 34888.00 648176 30800
2016 690,000.00 690000 704624.00 -14624
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 640,500.00 640500 640500 0 640500 0
2016 678,976.00 678976 667433.20 18853.24 640500 38476
2016 690,000.00 690000 688885.93 20672.88 686286.44 3713.56
2017 735,020.00 735020 709558.82 25461.1836
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 678,976.00 678976 678976 0 678976 0
2016 690,000.00 690000 686692.80 5401.76 678976 11024
2017 735,020.00 735020 722142.37 26435.23 692094.56 42925.44
2017 743,360.00 743360 748577.59 -5217.5936
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2016 690,000.00 690000 690000 0 690000 0
2017 735,020.00 735020 721514.00 22059.80 690000 45020
2017 743,360.00 743360 743424.14 21955.04 743573.8 -213.8
2017 688,560.00 688560 765379.18 -76819.178
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 735,020.00 735020 735020 0 735020 0
2017 743,360.00 743360 740858.00 4086.60 735020 8340
2017 688,560.00 688560 705475.38 -23541.85 744944.6 -56384.6
2017 705,380.00 705380 681933.53 23446.474
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 743,360.00 743360 743360 0 743360 0
2017 688,560.00 688560 705000.00 -26852.00 743360 -54800
2017 705,380.00 705380 697210.40 -13508.32 678148 27232
2017 734,000.00 734000 683702.08 50297.92
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 688,560.00 688560 688560 0 688560 0
2017 705,380.00 705380 700334.00 8241.80 688560 11774.00
2017 734,000.00 734000 726372.74 20699.66 708575.8 17796.94
2017 690,560.00 690560 747072.40 -747072.40
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 705,380.00 705380 705380 0 705380 0
2017 734,000.00 734000 725414.00 14023.80 705380 28620
2017 690,560.00 690560 705223.34 -9926.32 739437.8 -48877.8
2017 700,900.00 700900 695297.02 5602.982
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 734,000.00 734000 734000 0 734000 0
2017 690,560.00 690560 703592.00 -21285.60 734000 -43440
2017 700,900.00 700900 695321.92 -12174.74 682306.4 18593.6
2017 745,480.00 745480 683147.18 62332.816
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 690,560.00 690560 690560 0 690560 0
2017 700,900.00 700900 697798.00 5066.60 690560 10340
2017 745,480.00 745480 732695.38 25948.15 702864.6 42615.4
2017 718,000.00 718000 758643.53 -40643.526
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 700,900.00 700900 700900 0 700900 0
2017 745,480.00 745480 732106.00 21844.20 700900 44580
2017 718,000.00 718000 728785.06 4228.60 753950.2 -35950.2
2017 748,560.00 748560 733013.66 15546.338
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 745,480.00 745480 745480 0 745480 0
2017 718,000.00 718000 726244.00 -13465.20 745480 -27480
2017 748,560.00 748560 737825.64 4067.59 712778.8 35781.2
2017 718,280.00 718280 741893.23 -23613.228
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 718,000.00 718000 718000 0 718000 0
2017 748,560.00 748560 739392.00 14974.40 718000 30560
2017 718,280.00 718280 729105.92 -2707.94 754366.4 -36086.4
2017 708,720.00 708720 726397.98 -17677.984
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 748,560.00 748560 748560 0 748560 0
2017 718,280.00 718280 727364.00 -14837.20 748560 -30280
2017 708,720.00 708720 709862.04 -16702.53 712526.8 -3806.8
2018 666,776.00 666776 693159.51 -26383.508
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 718,280.00 718280 718280 0 718280 0
2017 708,720.00 708720 711588.00 -4684.40 718280 -9560
2018 666,776.00 666776 678814.28 -24346.92 706903.6 -40127.6
2018 700,079.00 700079 654467.36 45611.644
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2017 708,720.00 708720 708720 0 708720 0
2018 666,776.00 666776 679359.20 -20552.56 708720 -41944
2018 700,079.00 700079 687697.29 -329.10 658806.64 41272.36
2018 790,646.00 790646 687368.19 103277.8116
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 666,776.00 666776 666776 0 666776 0
2018 700,079.00 700079 690088.10 16318.47 666776 33303
2018 790,646.00 790646 765374.17 57595.79 706406.57 84239.43
2018 654,346.00 654346 822969.96 -168623.9617
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 700,079.00 700079 700079 0 700079 0
2018 790,646.00 790646 763475.90 44377.83 700079 90567
2018 654,346.00 654346 700398.32 -30840.96 807853.73 -153507.73
2018 734,778.00 734778 669557.36 65220.6387
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 790,646.00 790646 790646 0 790646 0
2018 654,346.00 654346 695236.00 -66787.00 790646 -136300
2018 734,778.00 734778 702879.30 -14685.79 628449 106329
2018 687,656.00 687656 688193.51 -537.51
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 654,346.00 654346 654346 0 654346 0
2018 734,778.00 734778 710648.40 39411.68 654346 80432
2018 687,656.00 687656 706377.22 8833.68 750060.08 -62404.08
2018 635,678.00 635678 715210.90 -79532.9048
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 734,778.00 734778 734778 0 734778 0
2018 687,656.00 687656 701792.60 -23089.78 734778 -47122
2018 635,678.00 635678 648585.45 -44171.94 678702.82 -43024.82
2018 654,788.00 654788 604413.50 50374.4958
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 687,656.00 687656 687656 0 687656 0
2018 635,678.00 635678 651271.40 -25469.22 687656 -51978
2018 654,788.00 654788 646092.25 -11266.17 625802.18 28985.82
2018 690,807.00 690807 634826.09 55980.9142
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 635,678.00 635678 635678 0 635678 0
2018 654,788.00 654788 649055.00 9363.90 635678 19110
2018 690,807.00 690807 681090.57 25234.07 658418.9 32388.1
2018 656,556.00 656556 706324.64 -49768.639
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 654,788.00 654788 654788 0 654788 0
2018 690,807.00 690807 680001.30 17649.31 654788 36019
2018 656,556.00 656556 668884.38 -2487.05 697650.61 -41094.61
2018 676,655.00 676655 666397.33 10257.6659
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 690,807.00 690807 690807 0 690807 0
2018 656,556.00 656556 666831.30 -16782.99 690807 -34251
2018 676,655.00 676655 668672.99 -3745.71 650048.31 26606.69
2018 738,900.00 738900 664927.28 73972.7189
total
mad
mape

TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend nilai ramalan error


2018 656,556.00 656556 656556 0 656556 0
2018 676,655.00 676655 670625.30 9848.51 656556 20099
2018 738,900.00 738900 721372.14 38477.34 680473.81 58426.19
2019 759849.49
total
mad
mape
Dengan Data Acuan 3 Bulan

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jan 2016 706,480.00
15604 0.022586 feb 2016 690,876.00
21976.76 0.030958 mar 2016 709,888.00
19417.6244 0.028264 apr 2016 687,000.00
37580.76 0.053544 total
18790.38 mad
2.677% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 feb 2016 690,876.00
19012 0.026782 mar 2016 709,888.00
26500.28 0.038574 apr 2016 687,000.00
7419.1732 0.010619 mei 2016 698,700.00
45512.28 0.065356 total
22756.14 mad
3.268% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mar 2016 709,888.00
22888 0.033316 apr 2016 687,000.00
16048.72 0.022969 mei 2016 698,700.00
29465.8632 0.040925 jun 2016 720,000.00
38936.72 0.056285 total
19468.36 mad
2.814% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 apr 2016 687,000.00
11700 0.016745 mei 2016 698,700.00
19077 0.026496 jun 2016 720,000.00
39542.37 0.051427 jul 2016 768,900.00
30777.00 0.043241 total
15388.5 mad
2.162% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mei 2016 698,700.00
21300 0.029583 jun 2016 720,000.00
44853 0.058334 jul 2016 768,900.00
6959.07 0.008912 ags 2016 780,900.00
66153.00 0.087917 total
33076.5 mad
4.396% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jun 2016 720,000.00
48900 0.063597 jul 2016 768,900.00
2709 0.003469 ags 2016 780,900.00
205275.71 0.342069 sep 2016 600,100.00
51609.00 0.067066 total
25804.5 mad
3.353% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jul 2016 768,900.00
12000 0.015367 ags 2016 780,900.00
183080 0.305082 sep 2016 600,100.00
69305.2 0.108205 okt 2016 640,500.00
195080.00 0.320449 total
97540 mad
16.022% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 ags 2016 780,900.00
180800 0.301283 sep 2016 600,100.00
74752 0.116709 okt 2016 640,500.00
112865.12 0.166228 nov 2016 678,976.00
255552.00 0.417992 total
127776 mad
20.900% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 sep 2016 600,100.00
40400 0.063076 okt 2016 640,500.00
30800 0.045362 nov 2016 678,976.00
14624 0.021194 des 2016 690,000.00
71200.00 0.108438 total
35600 mad
5.422% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 okt 2016 640,500.00
38476 0.056668 nov 2016 678,976.00
3713.56 0.005382 des 2016 690,000.00
25461.1836 0.03464 jan 2017 735,020.00
42189.56 0.06205 total
21094.78 mad
3.102% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 nov 2016 678,976.00
11024 0.015977 des 2016 690,000.00
42925.44 0.0584 jan 2017 735,020.00
5217.5936 0.007019 feb 2017 743,360.00
53949.44 0.074377 total
26974.72 mad
3.719% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 des 2016 690,000.00
45020 0.06125 jan 2017 735,020.00
213.8 0.000288 feb 2017 743,360.00
76819.178 0.111565 mar 2017 688,560.00
45233.80 0.061538 total
22616.9 mad
3.077% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jan 2017 735,020.00
8340 0.011219 feb 2017 743,360.00
56384.6 0.081888 mar 2017 688,560.00
23446.474 0.033239 apr 2017 705,380.00
64724.60 0.093107 total
32362.3 mad
4.655% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 feb 2017 743,360.00
54800 0.079586 mar 2017 688,560.00
27232 0.038606 apr 2017 705,380.00
50297.92 0.068526 mei 2017 734,000.00
82032.00 0.118193 total
41016 mad
5.910% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mar 2017 688,560.00
11774 0.016692 apr 2017 705,380.00
17796.94 0.024247 mei 2017 734,000.00
747072.398 1.081836 jun 2017 690,560.00
29570.94 0.040938 total
14785.47 mad
2.047% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 apr 2017 705,380.00
28620 0.038992 mei 2017 734,000.00
48877.8 0.07078 jun 2017 690,560.00
5602.982 0.007994 jul 2017 700,900.00
77497.80 0.109772 total
38748.9 mad
5.489% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mei 2017 734,000.00
43440 0.062905 jun 2017 690,560.00
18593.6 0.026528 jul 2017 700,900.00
62332.816 0.083614 ags 2017 745,480.00
62033.60 0.089434 total
31016.8 mad
4.472% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jun 2017 690,560.00
10340 0.014752 jul 2017 700,900.00
42615.4 0.057165 ags 2017 745,480.00
40643.526 0.056607 sep 2017 718,000.00
52955.40 0.071918 total
26477.7 mad
3.596% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jul 2017 700,900.00
44580 0.0598 ags 2017 745,480.00
35950.2 0.05007 sep 2017 718,000.00
15546.338 0.020768 okt 2017 748,560.00
80530.20 0.10987 total
40265.1 mad
5.494% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 ags 2017 745,480.00
27480 0.038273 sep 2017 718,000.00
35781.2 0.0478 okt 2017 748,560.00
23613.228 0.032875 nov 2017 718,280.00
63261.20 0.086073 total
31630.6 mad
4.304% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 sep 2017 718,000.00
30560 0.040825 okt 2017 748,560.00
36086.4 0.05024 nov 2017 718,280.00
17677.984 0.024944 des 2017 708,720.00
66646.40 0.091065 total
33323.2 mad
4.553% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 okt 2017 748,560.00
30280 0.042156 nov 2017 718,280.00
3806.8 0.005371 des 2017 708,720.00
26383.508 0.039569 jan 2018 666,776.00
34086.80 0.047528 total
17043.4 mad
2.376% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 nov 2017 718,280.00
9560 0.013489 des 2017 708,720.00
40127.6 0.060182 jan 2018 666,776.00
45611.644 0.065152 feb 2018 700,079.00
49687.60 0.073671 total
24843.8 mad
3.684% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 des 2017 708,720.00
41944 0.062906 jan 2018 666,776.00
41272.36 0.058954 feb 2018 700,079.00
103277.8116 0.130625 mar 2018 790,646.00
83216.36 0.12186 total
41608.18 mad
6.093% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jan 2018 666,776.00
33303 0.04757 feb 2018 700,079.00
84239.43 0.106545 mar 2018 790,646.00
168623.9617 0.257698 apr 2018 654,346.00
117542.43 0.154115 total
58771.215 mad
7.706% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 feb 2018 700,079.00
90567 0.114548 mar 2018 790,646.00
153507.73 0.234597 apr 2018 654,346.00
65220.6387 0.088762 may 2018 734,778.00
244074.73 0.349145 total
122037.365 mad
17.457% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 mar 2018 790,646.00
136300 0.2083 apr 2018 654,346.00
106329 0.144709 may 2018 734,778.00
537.51 0.000782 jun 2018 687,656.00
242629.00 0.353009 total
121314.5 mad
17.650% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 apr 2018 654,346.00
80432 0.109464 may 2018 734,778.00
62404.08 0.090749 jun 2018 687,656.00
79532.9048 0.125115 jul 2018 635,678.00
142836.08 0.200213 total
71418.04 mad
10.011% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 may 2018 734,778.00
47122 0.068526 jun 2018 687,656.00
43024.82 0.067683 jul 2018 635,678.00
50374.4958 0.076933 aug 2018 654,788.00
90146.82 0.136209 total
45073.41 mad
6.810% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jun 2018 687,656.00
51978 0.081768 jul 2018 635,678.00
28985.82 0.044267 aug 2018 654,788.00
55980.9142 0.081037 sep 2018 690,807.00
80963.82 0.126035 total
40481.91 mad
6.302% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 jul 2018 635,678.00
19110 0.029185 aug 2018 654,788.00
32388.1 0.046884 sep 2018 690,807.00
49768.639 0.075803 oct 2018 656,556.00
51498.10 0.076069 total
25749.05 mad
3.803% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 aug 2018 654,788.00
36019 0.05214 sep 2018 690,807.00
41094.61 0.062591 oct 2018 656,556.00
10257.6659 0.015159 nov 2018 676,655.00
77113.61 0.114732 total
38556.805 mad
5.737% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 sep 2018 690,807.00
34251 0.052168 oct 2018 656,556.00
26606.69 0.039321 nov 2018 676,655.00
73972.7189 0.100112 dec 2018 738,900.00
60857.69 0.091489 total
30428.845 mad
4.574% mape

|error| error mape BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter )


0 oct 2018 656,556.00
20099 0.029703 nov 2018 676,655.00
58426.19 0.079072 dec 2018 738,900.00
jan 2019
78525.19 0.108775 total
39262.595 mad
5.439% mape
level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
706480 706480 0 706480 0 0
690876 693996.80 -9986.56 706480 -15604 15604 0.022586
709888 704712.45 6575.21 684010.24 25877.76 25877.76 0.036453
687000 711287.65 -24287.6544 24287.6544 0.035353
total 41481.76 0.059039
mad 20740.88
mape 2.952%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690876 690876 0 690876 0 0
709888 706085.60 12167.68 690876 19012 19012 0.026782
687000 693250.66 -7834.42 718253.28 -31253.28 31253.28 0.045492
698700 685416.24 13283.7632 13283.7632 0.019012
total 50265.28 0.072274
mad 25132.64
mape 3.614%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


709888 709888 0 709888 0 0
687000 691577.60 -14648.32 709888 -22888 22888 0.033316
698700 694345.86 -715.06 676929.28 21770.72 21770.72 0.031159
720000 693630.80 26369.2032 26369.2032 0.036624
total 44658.72 0.064475
mad 22329.36
mape 3.224%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


687000 687000 0 687000 0 0
698700 696360.00 7488.00 687000 11700 11700 0.016745
720000 716769.60 17825.28 703848 16152 16152 0.022433
768900 734594.88 34305.12 34305.12 0.044616
total 27852.00 0.039179
mad 13926
mape 1.959%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


698700 698700 0 698700 0 0
720000 715740.00 13632.00 698700 21300 21300 0.029583
768900 760994.40 38929.92 729372 39528 39528 0.051409
780900 799924.32 -19024.32 19024.32 0.024362
total 60828.00 0.080992
mad 30414
mape 4.050%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


720000 720000 0 720000 0 0
768900 759120.00 31296.00 720000 48900 48900 0.063597
780900 782803.20 25205.76 790416 -9516 9516 0.012186
600100 808008.96 -207908.96 207908.96 0.346457
total 58416.00 0.075783
mad 29208
mape 3.789%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


768900 768900 0 768900 0 0
780900 778500.00 7680.00 768900 12000 12000 0.015367
600100 637316.00 -111411.20 786180 -186080 186080 0.310082
640500 525904.80 114595.2 114595.2 0.178915
total 198080.00 0.325449
mad 99040
mape 16.272%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


780900 780900 0 780900 0 0
600100 636260.00 -115712.00 780900 -180800 180800 0.301283
640500 616509.60 -38942.72 520548 119952 119952 0.187279
678976 577566.88 101409.12 101409.12 0.149356
total 300752.00 0.488562
mad 150376
mape 24.428%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


600100 600100 0 600100 0 0
640500 632420.00 25856.00 600100 40400 40400 0.063076
678976 674836.00 39104.00 658276 20700 20700 0.030487
690000 713940.00 -23940 23940 0.034696
total 61100.00 0.093563
mad 30550
mape 4.678%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


640500 640500 0 640500 0 0
678976 671280.80 24624.64 640500 38476 38476 0.056668
690000 691181.09 20845.16 695905.44 -5905.44 5905.44 0.008559
735020 712026.25 22993.7536 22993.7536 0.031283
total 44381.44 0.065226
mad 22190.72
mape 3.261%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


678976 678976 0 678976 0 0
690000 687795.20 7055.36 678976 11024 11024 0.015977
735020 726986.11 32763.80 694850.56 40169.44 40169.44 0.054651
743360 759749.91 -16389.9136 16389.9136 0.022048
total 51193.44 0.070628
mad 25596.72
mape 3.531%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690000 690000 0 690000 0 0
735020 726016.00 28812.80 690000 45020 45020 0.06125
743360 745653.76 21472.77 754828.8 -11468.8 11468.8 0.015428
688560 767126.53 -78566.528 78566.528 0.114103
total 56488.80 0.076678
mad 28244.4
mape 3.834%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


735020 735020 0 735020 0 0
743360 741692.00 5337.60 735020 8340 8340 0.011219
688560 700253.92 -32082.94 747029.6 -58469.6 58469.6 0.084916
705380 668170.98 37209.024 37209.024 0.05275
total 66809.60 0.096135
mad 33404.8
mape 4.807%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


743360 743360 0 743360 0 0
688560 699520.00 -35072.00 743360 -54800 54800 0.079586
705380 697193.60 -8875.52 664448 40932 40932 0.058028
734000 688318.08 45681.92 45681.92 0.062237
total 95732.00 0.137615
mad 47866
mape 6.881%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


688560 688560 0 688560 0 0
705380 702016.00 10764.80 688560 13456.00 13456 0.019076
734000 729756.16 24345.09 712780.8 16975.36 16975.36 0.023127
690560 754101.25 -754101.25 754101.248 1.092014
total 30431.36 0.042203
mad 15215.68
mape 2.110%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


705380 705380 0 705380 0 0
734000 728276.00 18316.80 705380 28620 28620 0.038992
690560 701766.56 -17544.19 746592.8 -56032.8 56032.8 0.081141
700900 684222.37 16677.632 16677.632 0.023795
total 84652.80 0.120133
mad 42326.4
mape 6.007%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


734000 734000 0 734000 0 0
690560 699248.00 -27801.60 734000 -43440 43440 0.062905
700900 695009.28 -8951.30 671446.4 29453.6 29453.6 0.042023
745480 686057.98 59422.016 59422.016 0.07971
total 72893.60 0.104928
mad 36446.8
mape 5.246%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690560 690560 0 690560 0 0
700900 698832.00 6617.60 690560 10340 10340 0.014752
745480 737473.92 32237.06 705449.6 40030.4 40030.4 0.053697
718000 769710.98 -51710.976 51710.976 0.072021
total 50370.40 0.06845
mad 25185.2
mape 3.422%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


700900 700900 0 700900 0 0
745480 736564.00 28531.20 700900 44580 44580 0.0598
718000 727419.04 -1609.73 765095.2 -47095.2 47095.2 0.065592
748560 725809.31 22750.688 22750.688 0.030393
total 91675.20 0.125393
mad 45837.6
mape 6.270%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


745480 745480 0 745480 0 0
718000 723496.00 -17587.20 745480 -27480 27480 0.038273
748560 740029.76 9709.57 705908.8 42651.2 42651.2 0.056978
718280 749739.33 -31459.328 31459.328 0.043798
total 70131.20 0.095251
mad 35065.6
mape 4.763%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718000 718000 0 718000 0 0
748560 742448.00 19558.40 718000 30560 30560 0.040825
718280 727025.28 -8426.50 762006.4 -43726.4 43726.4 0.060877
708720 718598.78 -9878.784 9878.784 0.013939
total 74286.40 0.101702
mad 37143.2
mape 5.085%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


748560 748560 0 748560 0 0
718280 724336.00 -19379.20 748560 -30280 30280 0.042156
708720 707967.36 -16970.75 704956.8 3763.2 3763.2 0.00531
666776 690996.61 -24220.608 24220.608 0.036325
total 34043.20 0.047466
mad 17021.6
mape 2.373%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718280 718280 0 718280 0 0
708720 710632.00 -6118.40 718280 -9560 9560 0.013489
666776 674323.52 -30270.46 704513.6 -37737.6 37737.6 0.056597
700079 644053.06 56025.944 56025.944 0.080028
total 47297.60 0.070086
mad 23648.8
mape 3.504%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


708720 708720 0 708720 0 0
666776 675164.80 -26844.16 708720 -41944 41944 0.062906
700079 689727.33 6281.19 648320.64 51758.36 51758.36 0.073932
790646 696008.52 94637.4816 94637.4816 0.119696
total 93702.36 0.136838
mad 46851.18
mape 6.842%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


666776 666776 0 666776 0 0
700079 693418.40 21313.92 666776 33303 33303 0.04757
790646 775463.26 69898.68 714732.32 75913.68 75913.68 0.096015
654346 845361.94 -191015.9392 191015.939 0.291919
total 109216.68 0.143585
mad 54608.34
mape 7.179%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


700079 700079 0 700079 0 0
790646 772532.60 57962.88 700079 90567 90567 0.114548
654346 689575.90 -54772.79 830495.48 -176149.48 176149.48 0.269199
734778 634803.11 99974.8912 99974.8912 0.136061
total 266716.48 0.383747
mad 133358.24
mape 19.187%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


790646 790646 0 790646 0 0
654346 681606.00 -87232.00 790646 -136300 136300 0.2083
734778 706697.20 2626.56 594374 140404 140404 0.191084
687656 709323.76 -21667.76 21667.76 0.03151
total 276704.00 0.399383
mad 138352
mape 19.969%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


654346 654346 0 654346 0 0
734778 718691.60 51476.48 654346 80432 80432 0.109464
687656 704158.42 -1331.25 770168.08 -82512.08 82512.08 0.11999
635678 702827.16 -67149.1648 67149.1648 0.105634
total 162944.08 0.229455
mad 81472.04
mape 11.473%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


734778 734778 0 734778 0 0
687656 697080.40 -30158.08 734778 -47122 47122 0.068526
635678 641926.86 -50154.44 666922.32 -31244.32 31244.32 0.049151
654788 591772.42 63015.5808 63015.5808 0.096238
total 78366.32 0.117677
mad 39183.16
mape 5.884%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


687656 687656 0 687656 0 0
635678 646073.60 -33265.92 687656 -51978 51978 0.081768
654788 646391.94 -6398.52 612807.68 41980.32 41980.32 0.064113
690807 639993.42 50813.5792 50813.5792 0.073557
total 93958.32 0.145881
mad 46979.16
mape 7.294%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


635678 635678 0 635678 0 0
654788 650966.00 12230.40 635678 19110 19110 0.029185
690807 685284.88 29901.18 663196.4 27610.6 27610.6 0.039969
656556 715186.06 -58630.064 58630.064 0.089299
total 46720.60 0.069154
mad 23360.3
mape 3.458%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


654788 654788 0 654788 0 0
690807 683603.20 23052.16 654788 36019 36019 0.05214
656556 666575.87 -9011.43 706655.36 -50099.36 50099.36 0.076306
676655 657564.44 19090.5584 19090.5584 0.028213
total 86118.36 0.128447
mad 43059.18
mape 6.422%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690807 690807 0 690807 0 0
656556 663406.20 -21920.64 690807 -34251 34251 0.052168
676655 669621.11 587.80 641485.56 35169.44 35169.44 0.051975
738900 670208.91 68691.0864 68691.0864 0.092964
total 69420.44 0.104143
mad 34710.22
mape 5.207%

level trend nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


656556 656556 0 656556 0 0
676655 672635.20 12863.36 656556 20099 20099 0.029703
738900 728219.71 47040.28 685498.56 53401.44 53401.44 0.072272
775259.99
total 73500.44 0.101975
mad 36750.22
mape 5.099%
Dengan Data Acuan 3 Bulan

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2016 706,480.00 706480 706480 0
feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 692436.40 -12639.24
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 706878.92 11734.34
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


feb 2016 690,876.00 690876 690876 0
mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 707986.80 15399.72
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 690638.65 -14073.36
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mar 2016 709,888.00 709888 709888 0
apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 689288.80 -18539.28
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 695904.95 4100.61
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


apr 2016 687,000.00 687000 687000 0
mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 697530.00 9477.00
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 718700.70 20001.33
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mei 2016 698,700.00 698700 698700 0
jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 717870.00 17253.00
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 765522.30 44612.37
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jun 2016 720,000.00 720000 720000 0
jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 764010.00 39609.00
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 783171.90 21206.61
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jul 2016 768,900.00 768900 768900 0
ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 779700.00 9720.00
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 619032.00 -143629.20
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


ags 2016 780,900.00 780900 780900 0
sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 618180.00 -146448.00
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 623623.20 -9745.92
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


sep 2016 600,100.00 600100 600100 0
okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 636460.00 32724.00
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 677996.80 40655.52
des 2016 690,000.00 690000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


okt 2016 640,500.00 640500 640500 0
nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 675128.40 31165.56
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 691629.40 17967.45
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


nov 2016 678,976.00 678976 678976 0
des 2016 690,000.00 690000 688897.60 8929.44
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 731300.70 39055.74
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


des 2016 690,000.00 690000 690000 0
jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 730518.00 36466.20
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 745722.42 17330.60
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2017 735,020.00 735020 735020 0
feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 742526.00 6755.40
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 694632.14 -42428.93
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


feb 2017 743,360.00 743360 743360 0
mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 694040.00 -44388.00
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 699807.20 751.68
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mar 2017 688,560.00 688560 688560 0
apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 703698.00 13624.20
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 732332.22 27133.22
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


apr 2017 705,380.00 705380 705380 0
mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 731138.00 23182.20
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 696936.02 -28463.56
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mei 2017 734,000.00 734000 734000 0
jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 694904.00 -35186.40
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 696781.76 -1828.66
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jun 2017 690,560.00 690560 690560 0
jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 699866.00 8375.40
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 741756.14 38538.67
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jul 2017 700,900.00 700900 700900 0
ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 741022.00 36109.80
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 723913.18 -11786.96
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


ags 2017 745,480.00 745480 745480 0
sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 720748.00 -22258.80
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 743552.92 18298.55
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


sep 2017 718,000.00 718000 718000 0
okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 745504.00 24753.60
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 723477.76 -17348.26
des 2017 708,720.00 708720
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


okt 2017 748,560.00 748560 748560 0
nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 721308.00 -24526.80
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 707526.12 -14856.37
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


nov 2017 718,280.00 718280 718280 0
des 2017 708,720.00 708720 709676.00 -7743.60
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 670291.64 -36220.28
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


des 2017 708,720.00 708720 708720 0
jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 670970.40 -33974.64
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 693770.68 17122.78
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jan 2018 666,776.00 666776 666776 0
feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 696748.70 26975.43
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 783953.81 81182.14
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


feb 2018 700,079.00 700079 700079 0
mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 781589.30 73359.27
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 674406.26 -89128.81
may 2018 734,778.00 734778
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


mar 2018 790,646.00 790646 790646 0
apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 667976.00 -110403.00
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 717057.50 33133.05
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


apr 2018 654,346.00 654346 654346 0
may 2018 734,778.00 734778 726734.80 65149.92
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 698078.87 -19275.34
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


may 2018 734,778.00 734778 734778 0
jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 692368.20 -38168.82
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 637530.14 -53171.14
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jun 2018 687,656.00 687656 687656 0
jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 640875.80 -42102.18
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 649186.56 3269.47
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


jul 2018 635,678.00 635678 635678 0
aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 652877.00 15479.10
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 688561.91 33664.33
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


aug 2018 654,788.00 654788 654788 0
sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 687205.10 29175.39
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 662538.45 -19282.45
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


sep 2018 690,807.00 690807 690807 0
oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 659981.10 -27743.31
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 672213.28 8234.63
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900
total
mad
mape

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO ( liter ) level trend


oct 2018 656,556.00 656556 656556 0
nov 2018 676,655.00 676655 674645.10 16280.19
dec 2018 738,900.00 738900 734102.53 55139.71
jan 2019
total
mad
mape
nilai ramalan error |error| error mape
706480 0 0
706480 -15604 15604 0.022586
679797.16 30090.84 30090.84 0.042388
718613.26 -31613.2564 31613.2564 0.046016
45694.84 0.064974
22847.42
3.249%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690876 0 0
690876 19012 19012 0.026782
723386.52 -36386.52 36386.52 0.052964
676565.29 22134.7092 22134.7092 0.03168
55398.52 0.079746
27699.26
3.987%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


709888 0 0
709888 -22888 22888 0.033316
670749.52 27950.48 27950.48 0.040004
700005.56 19994.4392 19994.4392 0.02777
50838.48 0.073319
25419.24
3.666%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


687000 0 0
687000 11700 11700 0.016745
707007 12993 12993 0.018046
738702.03 30197.97 30197.97 0.039274
24693.00 0.034791
12346.5
1.740%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


698700 0 0
698700 21300 21300 0.029583
735123 33777 33777 0.043929
810134.67 -29234.67 29234.67 0.037437
55077.00 0.073512
27538.5
3.676%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


720000 0 0
720000 48900 48900 0.063597
803619 -22719 22719 0.029093
804378.51 -204278.51 204278.51 0.340407
71619.00 0.092691
35809.5
4.635%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


768900 0 0
768900 12000 12000 0.015367
789420 -189320 189320 0.315481
475402.80 165097.2 165097.2 0.257763
201320.00 0.330848
100660
16.542%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


780900 0 0
780900 -180800 180800 0.301283
471732 168768 168768 0.263494
613877.28 65098.72 65098.72 0.095878
349568.00 0.564777
174784
28.239%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


600100 0 0
600100 40400 40400 0.063076
669184 9792 9792 0.014422
718652.32 -28652.32 28652.32 0.041525
50192.00 0.077497
25096
3.875%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


640500 0 0
640500 38476 38476 0.056668
706293.96 -16293.96 16293.96 0.023614
709596.85 25423.1516 25423.1516 0.034588
54769.96 0.080282
27384.98
4.014%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


678976 0 0
678976 11024 11024 0.015977
697827.04 37192.96 37192.96 0.050601
770356.44 -26996.4416 26996.4416 0.036317
48216.96 0.066578
24108.48
3.329%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690000 0 0
690000 45020 45020 0.06125
766984.2 -23624.2 23624.2 0.03178
763053.02 -74493.018 74493.018 0.108187
68644.20 0.09303
34322.1
4.652%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


735020 0 0
735020 8340 8340 0.011219
749281.4 -60721.4 60721.4 0.088186
652203.21 53176.794 53176.794 0.075387
69061.40 0.099405
34530.7
4.970%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


743360 0 0
743360 -54800 54800 0.079586
649652 55728 55728 0.079004
700558.88 33441.12 33441.12 0.04556
110528.00 0.158591
55264
7.930%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


688560 0 0
688560 16820 16820 0.023845
717322.2 16677.8 16677.8 0.022722
759465.44 -68905.438 68905.438 0.099782
33497.80 0.046567
16748.9
2.328%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


705380 0 0
705380 28620 28620 0.038992
754320.2 -63760.2 63760.2 0.092331
668472.46 32427.542 32427.542 0.046266
92380.20 0.131323
46190.1
6.566%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


734000 0 0
734000 -43440 43440 0.062905
659717.6 41182.4 41182.4 0.058756
694953.10 50526.896 50526.896 0.067778
84622.40 0.121662
42311.2
6.083%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690560 0 0
690560 10340 10340 0.014752
708241.4 37238.6 37238.6 0.049953
780294.81 -62294.806 62294.806 0.086762
47578.60 0.064705
23789.3
3.235%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


700900 0 0
700900 44580 44580 0.0598
777131.8 -59131.8 59131.8 0.082356
712126.22 36433.778 36433.778 0.048672
103711.80 0.142157
51855.9
7.108%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


745480 0 0
745480 -27480 27480 0.038273
698489.2 50070.8 50070.8 0.066889
761851.47 -43571.468 43571.468 0.060661
77550.80 0.105162
38775.4
5.258%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718000 0 0
718000 30560 30560 0.040825
770257.6 -51977.6 51977.6 0.072364
706129.50 2590.496 2590.496 0.003655
82537.60 0.113189
41268.8
5.659%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


748560 0 0
748560 -30280 30280 0.042156
696781.2 11938.8 11938.8 0.016846
692669.75 -25893.748 25893.748 0.038834
42218.80 0.059002
21109.4
2.950%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


718280 0 0
718280 -9560 9560 0.013489
701932.4 -35156.4 35156.4 0.052726
634071.36 66007.644 66007.644 0.094286
44716.40 0.066215
22358.2
3.311%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


708720 0 0
708720 -41944 41944 0.062906
636995.76 63083.24 63083.24 0.090109
710893.46 79752.5396 79752.5396 0.10087
105027.24 0.153014
52513.62
7.651%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


666776 0 0
666776 33303 33303 0.04757
723724.13 66921.87 66921.87 0.084642
865135.96 -210789.9577 210789.9577 0.322138
100224.87 0.132212
50112.435
6.611%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


700079 0 0
700079 90567 90567 0.114548
854948.57 -200602.57 200602.57 0.30657
585277.45 149500.5547 149500.5547 0.203464
291169.57 0.421118
145584.785
21.056%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


790646 0 0
790646 -136300 136300 0.2083
557573 177205 177205 0.241168
750190.55 -62534.55 62534.55 0.090939
313505.00 0.449468
156752.5
22.473%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


654346 0 0
654346 80432 80432 0.109464
791884.72 -104228.72 104228.72 0.151571
678803.53 -43125.5288 43125.5288 0.067842
184660.72 0.261035
92330.36
13.052%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


734778 0 0
734778 -47122 47122 0.068526
654199.38 -18521.38 18521.38 0.029136
584359.00 70428.9998 70428.9998 0.10756
65643.38 0.097662
32821.69
4.883%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


687656 0 0
687656 -51978 51978 0.081768
598773.62 56014.38 56014.38 0.085546
652456.03 38350.9702 38350.9702 0.055516
107992.38 0.167314
53996.19
8.366%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


635678 0 0
635678 19110 19110 0.029185
668356.1 22450.9 22450.9 0.0325
722226.24 -65670.239 65670.239 0.100022
41560.90 0.061685
20780.45
3.084%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


654788 0 0
654788 36019 36019 0.05214
716380.49 -59824.49 59824.49 0.091119
643256.00 33398.9979 33398.9979 0.049359
95843.49 0.143259
47921.745
7.163%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


690807 0 0
690807 -34251 34251 0.052168
632237.79 44417.21 44417.21 0.065642
680447.91 58452.0909 58452.0909 0.079107
78668.21 0.11781
39334.105
5.891%

nilai ramalan error |error| error mape


656556 0 0
656556 20099 20099 0.029703
690925.29 47974.71 47974.71 0.064927
789242.23
68073.71 0.094631
34036.855
4.732%
DATA PERSEDIAAN BAHAN BAKU BIODIESEL

BULAN TAHUN QTY CPO (LITER)


Jan 2016 706,480.00
Feb 2016 690,876.00
Mar 2016 709,888.00
Apr 2016 687,000.00
Mei 2016 698,700.00
Jun 2016 720,000.00
Jul 2016 768,900.00
Ags 2016 780,900.00
Sep 2016 600,100.00
Okt 2016 640,500.00
Nov 2016 678,976.00
Des 2016 690,000.00
Jan 2017 735,020.00
Feb 2017 743,360.00
Mar 2017 688,560.00
Apr 2017 705,380.00
Mei 2017 734,000.00
Jun 2017 690,560.00
Jul 2017 700,900.00
Ags 2017 745,480.00
Sep 2017 718,000.00
Okt 2017 748,560.00
Nov 2017 718,280.00
Des 2017 708,720.00
Jan 2018 666,776.00
Feb 2018 700,079.00
Mar 2018 790,646.00
Apr 2018 654,346.00
Mei 2018 734,778.00
Jun 2018 687,656.00
Jul 2018 635,678.00
Ags 2018 654,788.00
Sep 2018 690,807.00
Okt 2018 656,556.00
Nov 2018 676,655.00
Des 2018 738,900.00
BULAN TAHUN QTY LEVEL TREND NILAI RAMALAN ERROR Absolut Xt-Ft/Xt
Xt St Bt Ft+m xt-ft xt-ft Error
jan 2016 706480 706480 0 706480 0 0
feb 2016 690876 704919.6 -156.04 706480 -15604 15604 0.022586
mar 2016 709888 705276-104.7956 704763.56 5124.44 5124.44 0.007219
apr 2016 687000 703354.1
-286.5077 705171.2084 -18171.21 18171.21 0.02645
mei 2016 698700 702630.8
-330.1835 703067.579876 -4367.58 4367.58 0.006251
jun 2016 720000 704070.6
-153.1899 702300.63840564 17699.36 17699.36 0.024582
jul 2016 768900 710415.6496.6363 703917.38469826 64982.62 64982.62 0.084514
ags 2016 780900 717911.11196.513 710912.28251464 69987.72 69987.72 0.089624
sep 2016 600100 707206.86.437784 719107.56772423 -119008 119007.6 0.198313
okt 2016 640500 700541.9
-660.6947 707213.24873562 -66713.25 66713.25 0.104158
nov 2016 678976 697790.7-869.747 699881.22915851 -20905.23 20905.23 0.030789
des 2016 690000 696228.9
-938.9566 696920.95924753 -6920.959 6920.959 0.01003
jan 2017 735020 699262.9
-541.6557 695289.90673517 39730.09 39730.09 0.054053
feb 2017 743360 703185.1
-95.26826 698721.2604067 44638.74 44638.74 0.06005
mar 2017 688560 701636.9
-240.5669 703089.86610701 -14529.87 14529.87 0.021102
apr 2017 705380 701794.7 -200.73 701396.31257621 3983.687 3983.687 0.005648
mei 2017 734000 704834.6123.3304 701593.95127274 32406.05 32406.05 0.04415
jun 2017 690560 703518.1
-20.64842 704957.88658688 -14397.89 14397.89 0.02085
jul 2017 700900 703237.7
-46.62292 703497.44950374 -2597.45 2597.45 0.003706
ags 2017 745480 707420 376.2663 703191.08163388 42288.92 42288.92 0.056727
sep 2017 718000 708816.6478.3039 707796.23973466 10203.76 10203.76 0.014211
okt 2017 748560 713221.4870.9547 709294.91962802 39265.08 39265.08 0.052454
nov 2017 718280 714511.1912.8308 714092.38233577 4187.618 4187.618 0.00583
des 2017 708720 714753.6845.7911 715423.97494938 -6703.975 6703.975 0.009459
jan 2018 666776 710717 357.5574 715599.36855214 -48823.37 48823.37 0.073223
feb 2018 700079 709975 247.6015 711074.58910909 -10995.59 10995.59 0.015706
mar 2018 790646 718265 1051.835 710222.63171927 80423.37 80423.37 0.101719
apr 2018 654346 712819.7402.1272 719316.80375123 -64970.8 64970.8 0.099291
may 2018 734778 715377.5617.6887 713221.85054248 21556.15 21556.15 0.029337
jun 2018 687656 713161.2334.2971 715995.15414919 -28339.15 28339.15 0.041211
jul 2018 635678 705713.8
-443.8782 713495.53585373 -77817.54 77817.54 0.122417
aug 2018 654788 700221.7
-948.6973 705269.90402928 -50481.9 50481.9 0.077097
sep 2018 690807 698426.4
-1033.357 699273.01634698 -8466.016 8466.016 0.012255
oct 2018 656556 693309.4
-1441.728 697393.05726944 -40837.06 40837.06 0.062199
nov 2018 676655 690346.4
-1593.854 691867.62352697 -15212.62 15212.62 0.022482
dec 2018 738900 693767.3
-1092.379 688752.50692347 50147.49 50147.49 0.067868
jan 2019 692674.87691108
Total 1162488 1.677561
MAD(Mean Absolute Deviation) 33213.95
MAPE(Mean Absolute Precentage Error) 4.66%

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