Professional Documents
Culture Documents
The Swedish Economy No 1/2011
The Swedish Economy No 1/2011
• There are, however, signs that the rate of expansion could slow. A weaker
momentum was registered in sectors such as input goods and in retail.
Household confidence in their personal finances and for the Swedish
economy as a whole was solid, but increasing prices and borrowing costs
could limit the room for consumption growth.
• Public finances are benefiting from the economy's rapid recovery, but also as
a result of reforms that have already been implemented. Government
revenue is growing as the labour market has recovered rapidly, while at the
same time the social insurance reforms are limiting spending. It is estimated
that local governments had relatively large surpluses already in 2010, but
when central government subsidies are phased out and demographic costs
grow, the balanced budget rule could be jeopardised.
Swedish economy quickly normalising Contribution to Swedish GDP growth, Q1 2006 – Q3 2010
(Percentage points and GDP growth annually in percent)
Recent data show that the economic recovery 10.0
remains strong. Confidence is increasing in many Public cons. Invest. Private cons.
8.0 6.9
sectors of the economy and exports continue to 5.4
Inventories Net-export GDP 5.0
4.5
grow. At the same time there signs that the 6.0
3.2
4.1
4.0
2.7
3.2
recovery could be weakening. While still strong, 4.0
3.4 2.2 2.7
Confidence indicators, Jun 2006 – Jan 2011 It was primarily durable goods took off late last year
(Netbalance)
after a big decline in 2009. This is probably
60
because many households decided to put off big
ticket purchases at a point when they felt most
40
uncertain about their personal finances. When the
effects of this pent-up demand abate, spending may
20 slow again. At the same time, rising food and
energy prices, and higher borrowing costs could
0 also limit the room to expand consumption. Growing
borrowing costs may also have contributed to falling
-20 lending rates to households – to 7.8% on an annual
basis in December from 8.4% in November.
-40
Unemployment rose to 7.4% in December,
Manufacturing Retail Consumer compared with 7.1% in November, but remained
-60 unchanged at 7.8% in seasonally adjusted terms. At
jun-06 dec-06 jun-07 dec-07 jun-08 dec-08 jun-09 dec-09 jun-10 dec-10
the same time employment numbers rose slightly,
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Swedish which means that the labour force is expanding.
Trade Federation. The improved job market is encouraging more
people to begin looking for work again. Together
Business confidence was mixed. In manufacturing, with a growing share of long-term unemployed,
sentiment turned higher, and the construction slightly over 35% in December, this could make it
industry in particular continued to show signs of harder to reduce unemployment at the same rate as
rapid expansion. Input manufacturers, on the other in the autumn of 2010.
hand, which are usually early in the business cycle,
began to slow during autumn of last year as order
bookings fell, but also in this segment did Unemployment and job growth, Jan 2001 – Dec 2010
sentiments grow. Retail sales dropped, however, 10.0 5.0
while the service sector reported slight growth. In
9.0 4.0
other words, the normalisation of the Swedish
economy from record-low levels in 2009 appears to 8.0 3.0
be continuing. 7.0
2.0
6.0
Retail sales volumes rose modestly at the end of 1.0
5.0
last year. Despite an increase compared to 0.0
December 2009, the trend tapered off. On a 4.0
-1.0
seasonal basis, sales fell compared to November. 3.0
This can be attributed somewhat to the unusually 2.0 -2.0
cold weather, which may have dragged down the Employment (ann. change in %, rs)
1.0 -3.0
Unemployment (% of labour force)
willingness to consume.
0.0 -4.0
Consumption and retail sales, Jan 2008 – Dec 2010 jan-01 jul-02 jan-04 jul-05 jan-07 jul-08
(Index June 2008=100)
112 0.8
Source: Statistics Sweden.
110
0.6 Against the background of a persistently high
108
unemployment rate, rising prices are making
106 0.4 economic policy more tricky. Consumer prices
104 began to rise in December, reaching 2.3%. KPIF,
0.2 the measure of underlying inflation excluding
102
2 (4)
The Swedish Economy
is also a need for targeted policy initiatives and State revenue and expenditure, and budget balance, Jan
2007 – Nov 2010
growth enhancing reforms.
(SEK billion, 12-month moving average)
90
12 Government spending has also continued to fall.
10
The improved labour market has helped to limit
80 unemployment costs. Spending on social insurance
8 also continues to trend lower. This is due to the
70 substantial decrease in the number of people
6
receiving sick leave and activity compensation. This
60
4 is expected to continue. The social insurance
50
authority (Försäkringskassan), is predicting that the
2
number of people receiving compensation will fall
40 0 from around 440 000 in 2010 to 300 000 in 2015.
jan-00 jun-01 nov-02 apr-04 sep-05 feb-07 jul-08 jan-10 Although many will leave the labour force due to
Source: Statistics Sweden. demographic reasons, it will remain a challenge for
the labour market to absorb the remainder.
Fiscal policy towards surpluses Otherwise the costs will be shifted to other parts of
The strong increase in economic growth and the social insurance system.
improvement in the labour market mean that
Sick leave and rehabilitation compensation and benefits,
government revenue is trending upward again, Jan 2000 – Nov 2010
despite tax cuts in recent years. In particular, (SEK billion excluding old-age pension fees)
indirect taxes, mainly in the form of VAT, have 8.0
remained steady, mainly due to the stable
household consumption. 7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
Totalt
1.0 Sick leave and rehabilitation compensation 1/
Sick leave and rehabilitation benefits
0.0
jan-00 jul-01 jan-03 jul-04 jan-06 jul-07 jan-09 jul-10
3 (4)
The Swedish Economy
JAP
200
150 GRE
ITA
BEL US IRL
100
POR FRA UK
60 % GER
SWE LAT SPA
50
FIN DEN LIT
EST
0
2 0 -2 -3% -4 -6 -8 -10 -12
Budget balance
4 (4)