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Indian Agriculturist, Vol. 58, No. 1, pp. 1-11, 2014

Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) a Novel Data Analysis Technique for

Modeling and Forewarning Diseases in Plant Pathology
Adam KameiA, Apou KameiB, R. DangmeiA, S. T. PawanA and D. K. DasB
A
Department of Plant Pathology, BCKV, Mohanpur, Nadia, West Bengal: 741 252
B
Department of Agril.Chemistry and Soil Science, BCKV, Mohanpur, Nadia, West Bengal: 741 252
Corresponding Authors E-mail: kameiadam.03@gmail.com

Received : 06.06.2014 Accepted : 22.07.2014 Published : 01.09.2014

Abstract
Artificial Neural Networks model have been used in plant pathology to study dynamics, modeling and forecasting
of several disease in recent years. Artificial neural networks are parallel computing systems made up of a large number
of simple, highly interconnected processing elements called nodes or neurons that process information by their dynamic-
state response to the external signals and can handle imprecise information. It provides a flexible way to connect disease
outcome with environmental and other determinant variables. ANN can automatically approximate any nonlinear
mathematical function. This aspect of neural networks is particularly useful when the relationship between the variables
is not known or is complex and hence it is difficult to handle statistically. Due to the nature of linear relationship in the
parameters, regression models may not provide accurate predictions in some complex situations such as non linear data
and extreme values data. As regression models need to fulfill the regression assumptions and multiple co-linearity between
independent and dependent variables, it causes regression models to be inefficient. The ANN model has non-linear
pattern recognition capability which is valuable for modeling and forecasting complex non-linear problems in practice.
Neural networks are similar to regression models, in that both develop coefficients that model patterns by evaluation of
the relationship between independent and dependent variables. However, neural networks don’t require hypothetical
information for modeling, unlike parametric statistical models. In general, neural networks consist of three or more groups
of elements that represent sets of equations used by the model. These recently developed Artificial Neural Network
(ANNs) techniques are interesting and have become the focus of much attention, largely because of their wide range
of applicability and the ease with which they can treat complicated problems even if the data are imprecise and noisy.
As disease can occur over the conditions provided by the host plants as well as when weather conditions are favourable.
Therefore, there is a need to develop effective forewarning model, which can provide advance information for outbreak
of the disease. In this paper an attempt is made to reveal the potential use of ANN in disease prediction.

Introduction decades, researchers have examined ANN models

In an artificial neural network, simple artificial
nodes, variously called “neurons”, “neurodes”,
“processing elements” (PEs) or “units”, are connected
together to form a network of nodes mimicking the
biological neural networks — hence the term “artificial
neural network” and it processes information using a
connectionist approach to computation. The ANNs
have largely impressed the agricultural researchers, as
they are able to overcome the difficulties to many
extents of traditional statistical approaches. In last few
from a statistical point of view (Cheng and
Titterington, 1994; Warner and Misra, 1996).
Statistical models that can be expressed in neural
network form are regression, discriminant, density
estimation and graphical interaction models such as
simple linear regression, projection pursuit
regression, polynomial regression, non-parametric
regression, logistic regression, linear discriminant
functions, classification trees, finite mixture models,
kernel regression and smoothing splines (Cheng and
Titterington, 1994).
1
2 Indian Agriculturist
The reason is that ANN (Artificial Neural
Network) model is based on ‘prediction’ by smartly
analyzing’ the trend from an already existing voluminous
historical set of data. Apart from ANN the other models
are either mathematical or statistical. These models have
been found to be very accurate in calculation, but not
in prediction as they cannot adapt to the irregularly
varying patterns of data which can neither be written
in form of a function, nor deduced from a formula.
These real-life situations have been found to be better
interpreted by ‘artificial neurons’ which can learn from
experience, i.e. by back-propagation of errors in next
guess and so on. This may lead to a compromise in
accuracy, but give us a better advantage in
‘understanding the problem’, duplicating it or deriving
conclusions from it.
Neural networks are powerful sets of methods
for solving problems of pattern recognition, data
analysis and nonlinear control. They include benefits
of high processing speeds and the ability of learning.
Also they are complementary to conventional methods.
A feed forward neural network can be considered as
a nonlinear mathematical function which transforms a
set of input variables. A set of parameters called weight
do the transformation and the process of determining
these parameters is called learning or training. Once
the weight have been fixed, new data can be processed
by the network (Bishop, 1995).
TERMINOLOGIES IN NEURAL NETWORKS LITERATURE AND STATISTICS
Neural Network
Features
Inputs
Outputs
Targets or training values
Errors
Training, learning, adaptation or self organization
Error function, or cost function, or Lyapunov function
Patterns or training pairs
Weights (synaptic)
Higher order neurons
Functional links
Supervised learning or hetero-association
Unsupervised learning, encoding or auto-association
Competitive learning or adaptive vector quantization
Generalization
Some of the common traditional statistical
techniques used for predictions and classifications are
multiple regression, discriminant analysis, logistic
regression etc. In agricultural practices, crop
production is influenced by a great variety of interrelated
factors and it is difficult to describe their relationships
by conventional methods. Thus, artificial neural
network (ANN) is highly suggested to present the
complicated relations and strong nonlinearity between
different parameters and crop production. It is
considered to be one of the best techniques for
extracting information from imprecise and non-linear
data (Caselli et al., 2009). Hence, Neural Networks
(NNs) methods have become a very important tool for
a wide variety of applications across many disciplines
including prediction of crop production where
traditional statistical techniques were used. This has
led to a number of studies comparing the traditional
statistical techniques with neural networks in a variety
of applications. It has been recognized in the literature
that regression and neural network methods have
become competing model-building methods (Smith et
al., 1997). Nowadays, NNs methods have been largely
used in the areas of prediction and classification
(Warner et al., 1996). NNs models are also preferred
in the area of pattern recognition (Setyawati et al.,
2002). Many researchers have shown the relationship
between neural networks and statistical models.
Statistics
Variables
Independent variables
Predicted variables
Dependent variables
Residuals
Estimation
Estimation criteria
Observations
Parameter estimate
Interactions
Transformations
Regression or discriminant analysis
Data reduction
Cluster analysis
Interpolation
KAMEI, KAMEI, DANGMEI, PAWAN AND DAS et al. : Artificial neural networks (ANN) a novel data 3

Fig. 1. Simple Linear Perception= Multivariate Multiple Linear

Fig. 2. The ANN Network structure: Multilayer Perception=Simple Non-linear

4 Indian Agriculturist
Multilayer Perception=Multiple Non-linear Regression
Review of Literature
Most of the earlier workers have utilized
regression models (both linear and non linear) for pests
and diseases forewarning (Agrawal et al., 2004;
Chattopadhyay et al., 2005a & 2005b; Desai et al.,
2004 and Dhar et al., 2007). These techniques are being
successfully applied across an extraordinary range of
problem domains, in areas as diverse as finance,
medicine, engineering, geology, physics, biology and
agriculture.
In plant protection ANN have been used to
model leaf wetness (Francl & Panigrahi, 1997), disease
dynamics (Yang et al., 1995), disease forecasting (De
Wolf & Francl, 1997; Crisci et al., 1998) and pesticides
in soil (Yang et al., 1997). Disease prediction is based
on weather conditions under which a pathogen, when
in contact with a susceptible host, can infect and
become established (Hardwick, 1998). Weather-based
forecasting systems reduce the cost of production by
optimizing the timing and frequency of application of
control measures and ensure the operator, consumer
and environmental safety by reducing chemical usage.
A major aim of many forecasting systems is to reduce
fungicide use (Taylor et al., 2003), and accurate
prediction is important to synchronize the use of disease
control measures to avoid crop loss. Forecasting
systems with varying levels of sophistication and
success are available for a large number of diseases
affecting horticultural and field crops (Cambell &
Madden, 1990).
The relationships among host-pathogen-
weather are very crucial in their interaction to
understand but Dewolf and Francl (2000) demonstrated
the applicability of neural network technology for plant
diseases forecasting. Zhang et al. (1998) provided the
general summary of the work in ANN forecasting,
providing the guidelines for neural network modeling,
general paradigm of the ANNs especially those used
for forecasting. They have reviewed the relative
performance of ANNs with the traditional statistical
methods, wherein in most of the studies ANNs were
found to be better than the latter. Chakraborty et al.
(2004) utilized the ANN technique for predicting
severity of anthracnose diseases in legume crop.
Gaudart et al. (2004) compared the performance of
KAMEI, KAMEI, DANGMEI, PAWAN AND DAS et al. : Artificial neural networks (ANN) a novel data
Multilayer Perception (MLP) and that of linear
regression for epidemiological data with regard to
quality of prediction and robustness to deviation from
underlying assumptions of normality, homoscedasticity
and independence of errors and it was found that MLP
performed better than linear regression. Therefore,
ANNs technique can be utilized for forewarning pests/
diseases in advance.
As previously published weather-based models
for anthracnose (Chakraborty & Billard, 1995) are based
on multiple linear regression analysis, and many plant
pathologists have used this approach to develop disease
forecasting models, regression models were developed
in this study using each of the three weather summaries
to provide reference points for the outputs of the ANN
models.
The most conventional type of Neural Network
is Back Propagation Network which is a type of Feed-
Forward Networks, used in study. The disease
progress data as double digit disease index and disease
severity in five wheat cultivars (Tajan, Zagros,
Koohdasht, Shiroodi, Shanghai) were analyzed using
Neurosolution 5.0. The results showed that double digit
disease index were more efficient compared to disease
severity in all cultivars and lines for describing disease
progress in time. All cultivars and lines revealed high
efficiency of ANN in the disease progress of wheat
Septoriosis, according to high coefficient of
correlation and low Root of Mean Square Error and
Maximum Absolute Error parameters. This study on
using ANN models in temporal progress of wheat
Septoriosis.
Artificial Neural Network has been applied for
classification, optimization, and prediction problems in
the agricultural sciences (Cook, 1991; Thai, 1991). In
the past few years, ANN used for cereal grain
classification and identification tasks (Visen, 2002). Its
application in plant pathology includes the prediction
of leaf wetness duration (Francl, 1995) and soybean
rust progress (Yang, 1995). Also, it has been applied
to the prediction of disease intensity (De Wolf, 1997;
Batchelor, 1997) and leaf wetness duration (Chtioui,
1999; Francl, 1997). It has been shown to perform
just as well as or better than traditional multivariate
5
approaches at classifying incidence (De Wolf, 2000)
and detecting infection periods of Tan spot of wheat
(Batchelor, 1997) and predicting wheat scab epidemics
(Yang, 1997). The Septoria blotch disease of wheat
incited by Septoria tritici Roberg in Desmaz.
(Telemorph: Mycosphaerella graminicola (Fuckel) J.
Schrot in Cohn) cause major foliar diseases of wheat
and considerable yield losses in many countries
worldwide (Eyal, 1999). This study was conducted to
analyze the temporal progress of wheat Septoriosis
based on two different indices using ANNs. ANN can
be used for multivariate data sets which have nonlinear
dependencies and variables do not have to fit any
theoretical distribution (Fausett, 1994; Lek and Guegan,
1999; Grinn-Gofron and Strzelczak, 2008). Therefore,
it is useful for forecasting airborne fungal spore
distribution (Grinn-Gofron and Strzelczak, 2008).
Multiple regression models could not be used for
analysis of spore circulation due to nonlinear and non-
normal distribution (Grinn- Gofron and Strzelczak,
2008).
Network Selection
The number of neurons in an ANN must be
sufficient for correct modelling of the problem of
interest, but it should be sufficiently low to ensure
generalization of the network. Generally, a neural
network is created for three phases commonly referred
to as training, validation and testing. The network is
trained with input and output values and the network
is adjusted according to the obtained errors. Sample
data (both inputs and desired outputs) are processed
to optimize the network’s output and thereby minimize
deviation. Validation is used to measure network
generalization, and to halt training when generalization
ceases improving and testing has no effect on training.
Network Model and Parameters
The neurons of the input layer receive
information from the outside environment and transmit
them to the neurons of the hidden layers without
performing any calculation. The hidden layer neurons
then process the incoming information and extract
useful features to reconstruct the mapping from the
6 Indian Agriculturist
input space. The neighboring layers are fully
interconnected by weights. Finally, the output layer
neurons produce the network predictions to the outside
world. As there is no general rule for selecting the
number of neurons in a hidden layer. Repeated trials
showed that a model with three hidden layers, having
any numbers neurons in the first layer and numbers
neurons in the second layer and neurons in the third
hidden layer were trained to check most useful for the
training. Number of epochs was determined and the
model was trained through multiple iterations.
Model Assessment
Mean square error was used to measure the
performance of the network in each run. Thus, the
performance index either has one global minimum, a
weak minimum, or no minimum, depending on the
characteristics of the input vectors. Specifically, the
characteristics of the input vectors determine whether
or not a unique solution exists proving the mean square
error an adequate performance measuring standard.
In other words, it shows that the network is learning.
Training on the training vectors continues as long the
training reduces the network‘s error on the validation
vectors. After the network memorizes the training set
(at the expense of generalizing more poorly), training
is stopped. This technique automatically avoids the
problem of over fitting, which plagues many
optimization and learning algorithms. Finally, the last
20% of the vectors provide an independent test of
network generalization to data that the network has
never seen.
Performance measure
The forecasting performance of various ANN
models and regression models was judged by Mean
Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).
Where, Yt is actual observation, Ft is the
forecast from model and n is the total number of test
data point.
Experimental Setup
The model building process consists of four
sequential steps:
1. Selection of the input and the output data
for the supervised Back Propagation learning.
2. Normalization of the input and the output
data.
3. Training of the normalized data using BP
learning.
4. Testing the goodness of fit of the model.
5. Comparing the predicted output with the
desired output.
There are two tools for implementing the
algorithms in MATLAB. They are-
• Nntool – Open network/data manager. The
single layer and the multilayer algorithms are
implemented in the nntool- open network/ data
manager
• Nftool – Neural network fitting tool. Only
back propagation algorithm is implemented in this
MATLAB tool. Back Propagation Algorithm (BPA) was
implemented in the nftools and a minimum MSE was
obtained and a graph was plotted between the predicted
values and the target values. The following are the
values recorded using the nftools MSE = 3.6456. The
regression can be plotted as follows:
Advantages of ANN Model
Because linear regression models have the
inferiority of not being able to explain the non linear
properties existing between the weld geometry
parameters and welding parameters, intelligent systems
(artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic and expert
systems) have emerged. It is clear from the literature
that ANN can automatically approximate any nonlinear
mathematical function. This aspect of neural networks
is particularly useful when the relationship between the
variables is not known or is complex and hence it is
difficult to handle statistically.
It is widely known that neural networks can
serve as a powerful tool for pattern classification,
KAMEI, KAMEI, DANGMEI, PAWAN AND DAS et al. : Artificial neural networks (ANN) a novel data
especially when the distribution of the objective classes
is unknown or cannot be expressed as mathematical
models. (Lightfoot et al., 2005). There are also studies
that have shown that full factorial design and neural
networks can be used as tools for future extraction,
to produce new features based on the original ones or
the inputs to a neural network (Sudhakaran et al.,
2011). The set of new features usually contains fewer
and more informative features so that future
classification can be conducted at a lower
computational cost using only the condensed new
features. An artificial neural network (ANN), usually
called neural network (NN), is a mathematical model
or computational model that is inspired by the Modern
neural networks and are non-linear statistical data
modeling tools.
Disadvantages of ANN Model
The disadvantages of neural network are, it
needs suitable set of data for training and if there are
considerable differences between training data and
inputs of new regions, the neural network will have a
lot of potential problems. It has also been suggested
that the neural network should be considered as possible
candidate for solving traditional problems (Bishop,
1995).
AVDIF : Average Difference, SMLR :
Stepwise multiple linear regression, PPR : Projection
7
pursuit Regression, CVMSE : Cross–validated mean
squared error, LRM: Logistic regression model,
AV: Absolute Value, PCA : Principal Component
Analysis, Tr-Ts : Training Testing, Tr-Ts-V :
Training Testing Validation, Tr-Ts-CV : Training
Testing Cross-Validation, MAPE: Mean Absolute
Percentage Error.
Conclusion
It is clear from the study that ANN model can
automatically approximate any nonlinear mathematical
function which is valuable for modeling and forecasting
complex non-linear problems in practice. This aspect
of neural networks is particularly useful when the
relationship between the variables is not known or is
complex and hence it is difficult to handle statistically.
Neural networks and statistical models are not
competing methodologies for data analysis. There is
an overlap between the two fields. It was found that
neural network model using multilayer perception
(MLP) architecture is better than Radial Basis
Function and weather indices based regression
models in terms of MAPE. Therefore, reliable
forewarning for maximum severity of disease, crop
age at first appearance of disease, crop age at peak
severity of disease in two different varieties of crop
is possible well in advance.
8 Indian Agriculturist

APPLICATIONS OF ANN MODEL IN PREDICTION

Reference Statistical No. of Validation Error Measure Findings

model Variables Method
Warner and Misra (1996) LR 12 Tr-Ts (70-30) C-index and [C]
Goodness of fit test
Drummond et al. (2003) SMLR, PPR 11 Tr-Ts CV CVMSE [A]
Paul et al. (2004) LRM 11 Tr-Ts CV R2 , MSE [A]
Jiang et al. (2004) MLR 5 Tr-Ts CV AV [A]
Kaul et al. (2004) MLR 20 Tr-Ts R2 , RMSE [A]
Yong et al. (2005) MLR 6 Tr-Ts-CV Goodness of [A]
fit test, CC and R2
Ji et al. (2007) MLR 60 Tr-V R2 , RMSE [A]
Li et al. (2007) MLR 15 Tr-CV R2,RMSE, AVDIF [A]
Sing et al. (2008) MLR 5 Tr-Ts-V MSE [A]
Mehnatkesh et al. MLR 57 Tr-Ts R2 and RMSE [A]
Ayoubi et al. (2011) PCA 14 Tr-Ts (80-20) R2 and RMSE [A]
Zaefizadeh, M. et al (2011) MLR 5 Tr-Ts t-test of mean [A]
deviation index
Laxmi et al. (2011) SMLP 5 Tr-Ts-V MAPE [A]

AVDIF : Average Difference, SMLR : Stepwise multiple linear regression, PPR : Projection pursuit Regression, CVMSE
: Cross–validated mean squared error, LRM: Logistic regression model, AV: Absolute Value, PCA : Principal Component
Analysis, Tr-Ts : Training Testing, Tr-Ts-V : Training Testing Validation, Tr-Ts-CV : Training Testing Cross-Validation,
MAPE: Mean Absolute Percentage Error.

Statiscal results of neural network model of septoria tritici using disease index in seven wheat cultivar

Cultivar/ Input Network Training Testing Network

line series architecture type

R2 MSE MAE R2 MSE MAE BPNN

A 1 1-4-1 0.85 15.53 2.99 0.67 19.33 3.30 BPNN
B 1 1-4-1 0.76 23.87 3.81 0.83 31.73 4.70 BPNN
C 1 1-4-1 0.66 25.67 3.50 0.73 31.93 4.35 BPNN
D 1 1-4-1 o.40 48.09 5.52 0.47 63.96 6.07 BPNN
E 1 1-4-1 0.76 58.27 6.19 0.85 58.91 5.82 BPNN
F 1 1-4-1 0.75 29.99 3.90 0.69 44.69 5.09 BPNN
G 1 1-4-1 0.42 167.99 11.33 0.50 147.67 10.02 BPNN
KAMEI, KAMEI, DANGMEI, PAWAN AND DAS et al. : Artificial neural networks (ANN) a novel data
From the above study the following observations
were made:
●As the number of neurons increases in an ANN, the
MSE decreases.
● LEARNGDM is the best learning function to train
your data with.
● LEARNGD is a bit time consuming.
● TRAINLM is the best training function.
● Multi-layer Algorithm is better than Single-layer
algorithm in terms of performance.
● NNTOOLS should be used to implement the prediction
algorithms as it gives an option of implementing
algorithms other than Back Propagation Alagorithm.
● Larger the amount of input data, lower is the MSE
after training.
● The input /output data should be normalized if they
are of very high order.
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