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Model To Predict Pavement Temperature PR PDF
Model To Predict Pavement Temperature PR PDF
Abstract: Flexible pavements comprise a majority of the primary highways in the United States. These primary highways are subjected
to heavy loading that can cause significant damage to the hot-mix asphalt 共HMA兲 pavements. As HMA is a viscoelastic material, the
structural or load-carrying capacity of the pavement varies with temperature. Thus, to accurately determine in situ strength characteristics
of flexible pavement, it is necessary to predict the temperature distribution within the HMA layers. The majority of previously published
research on pavement temperature prediction has consisted of predicting the annual maximum or minimum pavement temperature so as
to recommend a suitable asphalt binder performance grade. To determine the pavement temperature profile, the influence of ambient
temperature and seasonal changes must be understood such that the effects of heating and cooling trends within the pavement structure can
be quantified. Recent investigations have shown that it is possible to model daily pavement maxima and minima temperatures by knowing
the maximum or minimum ambient temperatures, the depth at which the pavement temperature is desired, and the calculated solar
radiation utilizing a linear relationship. This paper presents the verification that the pavement temperatures calculated using the daily solar
radiation could be accurately applied to any location. The suggested location-independent model was successfully validated utilizing data
from the Virginia Smart Road and two randomly selected long-term pavement performance seasonal monitoring program sites.
DOI: 10.1061/共ASCE兲0733-947X共2006兲132:2共162兲
CE Database subject headings: Pavement management; Temperature effects; Flexible pavements; Validation.
simulation model based on the theory of heat transfer and energy collected at the Virginia Smart Road. Linear relationships were
balance at the pavement surface was later developed by Dempsey chosen as they combined good accuracy with simplicity making
共1970兲. Until the initiation of the long-term pavement perform- them suitable for use by others outside the research arena.
ance 共LTPP兲 program, there was little published activity in the Pavement temperature data from the Virginia Smart Road was
general literature on this topic. obtained from three depths within the pavement for model
The strategic highway research program 共SHRP兲 established development: 0.038, 0.063, and 0.188 m below the surface. All
the LTPP program in 1987 as a 20 year study to better character- three depths were located within HMA layers.
ize the in situ performance of pavements. Approximately 2,500
sites throughout North America were selected to represent a broad
Daily Temperature Prediction Models Incorporating
range of pavement types and climatic conditions. To specifically
Calculated Solar Radiation
deal with the challenges of studying climatic conditions, 61 LTPP
sites were selected to become part of the seasonal monitoring The pavement temperature prediction models, initially developed
program 共SMP兲. The 1994 SMP research was designed to during this study, were used to predict the maximum and mini-
measure and evaluate the effects of temperature and moisture mum daily pavement temperatures at the Virginia Smart Road.
variations on pavement performance; thus making it possible to However, these general models could not accurately predict
monitor the appropriateness of the varying Superpave mixture pavement temperatures at other locations. This is because the
designs 共Ali and Lopez 1996兲. incoming solar radiation varies with location 共i.e., with respect to
From the initial SHRP testing and the more recent SMP latitude兲 and thus affects the resulting pavement temperature. One
data, pavement temperature models were developed to assist reason for this variation is that as the earth traverses its orbit
with the selection of the proper asphalt binder performance grade around the sun, different locations on the planet receive varying
for usage in a particular location 共Mohseni and Symons 1998a,b; amounts of solar radiation due to the tilt of the north-south axis
Lukanen et al. 1998; Bosscher et al. 1998兲. Solaimanian and with respect to the orbital plane. This tilt is termed the solar
Kennedy 共1993兲 present an analytical approach to predict pave- declination. The declination is given as a positive value when the
ment temperatures by employing heat and energy transfer theory. sun is in the northern latitudes and as a negative value when the
Regression based models using other data sets were presented sun is in the southern latitudes 共Anderson 1983兲. At the vernal
by Bosscher et al. 共1998兲, Marshall et al. 共2001兲, and Park et al. and autumnal equinoxes, the declination is zero. In addition, there
共2001兲. A computer simulation model that predicts summertime are seasonal variations on the incoming solar radiation since the
pavement temperatures based on the theoretical heat transfer earth’s orbit follows an elliptical path. The changing distance
models given in Solaimanian and Kennedy 共1993兲 was recently between the sun and the earth causes a daily variation in the solar
radiation received at the earth’s surface. An eccentricity factor
presented by Hermansson 共2000, 2001兲.
expresses this variation in distance in terms of one astronomical
Although many researchers have studied temperature distribu-
unit 共AU兲. One AU is equal to the mean distance between the
tion within a pavement, most of the previous work has primarily
earth and sun 共1.496⫻108 km兲. In order to model the pavement
focused on determining yearly maximum and minimum pave-
temperature at other locations 共designated by their respective
ment temperatures for the purpose of binder selection; very few
latitudes兲, these parameters must be calculated.
studies have discussed daily pavement temperature prediction. The daily amount of solar radiation at any location on the earth
Only recently, research efforts have been presented to predict can be determined using the latitude and day of the year. From
pavement temperatures on a smaller time scale 共Marshall et al. these variables, the solar declination and eccentricity factor can
2001; Park et al. 2001; Hermansson 2000, 2001兲. Given the be calculated and then used to determine the daily solar radiation
current ongoing work devoted to temperature prediction within 共Iqbal 1983兲. The eccentricity factor is given as follows:
HMA pavements, there is still no simplified method for pavement
temperature prediction that is easily applied by nonresearchers in
E0 = 1.000110 + 0.034221 cos ⌫ + 0.001280 sin ⌫
the field who could benefit from such a method.
More recently, linear regression techniques, employed to + 0.000719 cos 2⌫ + 0.000077 sin 2⌫ 共1兲
develop models based on data obtained at the Virginia Smart
Road, have shown that daily maximum or minimum pavement where E0⫽eccentricity factor; and ⌫⫽day angle 共rad兲. The day
temperatures can be predicted given the daily maximum or mini- angle is expressed as follows:
mum ambient temperatures, day of year, and depth at which the
pavement temperature is desired 共Diefenderfer et al. 2002兲. These 2共dn−1兲
⌫= 共2兲
models were developed as a simplified method that can be used to 365
predict the temperature profile within a pavement structure. These
models have also been shown to be independent of the particular where dn⫽day number of the year ranging from 1 to 365.
冉 冊
temperature, utilizing the calculated daily solar radiation, is given
180 as follows:
+ 0.00148 sin 3⌫兲 ⫻ 共4兲
From Eqs. 共2兲–共5兲, the daily solar radiation on a horizontal T p min = − 1.2097 + 0.6754Ta min + 3.7642 ⫻ 10−4Rs + 7.2043Pd
surface can be given as the following:
共8兲
H0 = 冉 冊
24
⫻ Isc ⫻ E0 ⫻ sin共兲sin共␦兲 ⫻
s ⫻
180
冉
− tan共s兲 冊 共5兲
where T pmin⫽predicted minimum pavement temperature 共°C兲;
where H0⫽daily solar radiation on a horizontal surface
Tamin⫽minimum daily ambient temperature 共°C兲; Rs⫽calculated
共kJ/m2 day兲; and Isc⫽solar constant⫽4,871 kJ/m2 h. Table 1
daily solar radiation 共kJ/m2 day兲; and Pd⫽depth from the surface
gives an example of the difference in solar radiation values for
共m兲. The RMSE and adjusted R2 for this model were calculated to
four locations in the eastern United States at different times
be 4.3 and 79.8%, respectively.
of the year.
The daily ambient temperatures were obtained for the
In an effort to develop a model form that would be useful for
Blacksburg municipal airport 共BCB兲, approximately 1.7 km
locations outside Virginia, a set of temperature prediction models
from the Virginia Smart Road, by accessing the National Virtual
that includes the calculated solar radiation was developed and is
Climatic Data section within the National Oceanographic and
expressed as follows:
Atmospheric Administration 共NOAA兲 website. The Blacksburg
T p = a + bTa + cRs + dPd 共6兲 municipal airport is a second-order weather station and thus only
daily 共and not hourly兲 ambient temperatures are available for this
where T p⫽predicted pavement temperature 共°C兲; a⫽intercept
station. As there is currently no weather station at the Virginia
coefficient; b⫽ambient temperature coefficient; Ta⫽measured
Smart Road, the National Virtual Climatic Data website was the
ambient temperature 共°C兲; c⫽calculated solar radiation coeffi-
only known source for this information.
cient; Rs⫽calculated solar radiation 共kJ/m2 day兲; d⫽depth
The models presented in Eqs. 共7兲 and 共8兲 were evaluated
coefficient; and Pd⫽depth within pavement 共m兲. Following the
using an independent data set: daily pavement temperature data
form of Eq. 共6兲, specific models for the daily maximum and
measured at the Virginia Smart Road and collected from July 3,
minimum predicted pavement temperature were developed using
2001 through December 31, 2001; a period of 183 days. The
data from the Virginia Smart Road. These linear regression mod-
RMSE and adjusted R2 values were calculated as 4.2 and 87.1%,
els were developed from measurements collected from February
respectively, for the daily maximum pavement temperature
2000 through May 2001; a total of 1,014 observations for each
model. The evaluation of the maximum pavement temperature
model. The model to predict the daily maximum pavement
model 关Eq. 共7兲兴 versus the measured pavement temperature at a
temperature, utilizing the calculated daily solar radiation, is given
depth of 0.038 m is presented in Fig. 1. The RMSE and adjusted
as follows:
R2 values for the daily minimum pavement temperature model
T p max = 2.78752 + 0.6861Ta max + 5.6736 ⫻ 10−4Rs − 27.8739Pd were calculated as 4.6 and 72.5%, respectively. The evaluation of
the minimum temperature model 关Eq. 共8兲兴 versus the measured
共7兲
pavement temperature at a depth of 0.038 m is presented in Fig. 2.
where T p max⫽predicted daily maximum pavement temperature Thus, it is shown that Eqs. 共7兲 and 共8兲 can accurately predict
共°C兲; Ta max⫽daily maximum ambient temperature 共°C兲; the daily maximum and minimum pavement temperatures at the
Rs⫽calculated daily solar radiation 共kJ/m2 day兲; and Pd⫽depth Virginia Smart Road using an independent data set.
Fig. 2. Predicted daily minimum pavement temperature 关Eq. 共9兲兴 Fig. 3. Predicted daily maximum pavement temperature 关Eq. 共8兲兴
at 0.038 m depth for Virginia Smart Road versus measured pavement at 0.025 m depth for LTPP Site 9-1803 共Conn.兲 versus measured
temperature pavement temperature
Acknowledgments