Simulation Unit :1

Define Simulation and list the disadvantages of simulation.

Ans:
Simulation:
Simulation is the imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system. The act of simulating
something first requires that a model be developed; this model represents the key characteristics, behaviors
and functions of the selected physical or abstract system or process. The model represents the system itself,
whereas the simulation represents the operation of the system over time.

Disadvantages of Simulation:
There are a number of problems with using simulation and these must not be ignored when deciding whether
or not it is appropriate.
i. Expensive: Simulation software is not necessarily cheap and the cost of model development and use may
be considerable, particularly if consultants have to be employed.
ii. Time consuming: It has already been stated that simulation is a time consuming approach. This only
adds to the cost of its use and means that the benefits are not immediate.
iii. Data hungry: Most simulation models require a significant amount of data. This is not always
immediately available and, where it is, much analysis may be required to put it in a form suitable for the
simulation.
iv. Requires expertise: Simulation modelling is more than the development of a computer program or the
use of a software package. It requires skills in, among other things, conceptual modelling, validation and
statistics, as well as skills in working with people and project management. These are the skills that are
discussed in this book. This expertise is not always readily available.
v. Overconfidence: There is a danger that anything produced on a computer is seen to be right. With
simulation this is further exacerbated with the use of an animated display, giving an appearance of reality.
When interpreting the results from a simulation, consideration must be given to the validity of the underlying
model and the assumptions and simplifications that have been made.

Explain with neat block diagram the framework for Conceptual Modelling.
Ans:
The below figure provides an outline of a framework for conceptual modelling. The purpose of this
framework is to provide a modeller with an understanding of how to develop a conceptual model. The
framework consists of four key elements:
 Develop an understanding of the problem situation
 Determine the modelling objectives
 Design the conceptual model: the model content
 Design the conceptual model: inputs and outputs
 Figure - A Framework for Conceptual Modelling

Starting with an understanding of the problem situation, a set of modelling objectives are determined. These
objectives then drive the derivation of the conceptual model, first by defining the inputs and outputs, and
then by defining the content of the model itself. These elements are described in detail below.

1. Developing an understanding of the problem situation:

It is obviously necessary for the modeller to develop a good understanding of the problem situation if he/she
is to develop a model that adequately describes the real world. The approach to this process depends in large
measure on the extent to which the clients understand, and are able to explain, the problem situation. In
many circumstances the clients will be able to provide such an explanation, for instance, by describing the
operation of the (proposed) real world system that is at the heart of the problem situation.

2. Determining the modelling objectives:

I. The modelling objectives are central to the modelling process. They are the means by which the nature of
the model is determined, the reference point for model validation, the guide for experimentation, and one of
the metrics by which the success of the study is judged.
II. In designing a simulation model the modelling objectives are not the only concern. The modeller should
also be aware of some more general project objectives. Time-scale is particularly important. If there is only a
limited time available for the project, then the modeller may be forced into a more conservative model
design. This helps reduce model development time and quicken its run-speed, reducing the time required for
experimentation.
III. The modeller should also clarify the nature of the model required by the clients, specifically in terms of
the visual display and the type of model use.

3. Designing the conceptual model: inputs and outputs-

I. The first stage of conceptual model design does not involve the details of the model itself, but the model’s
inputs and outputs, depicted as the experimental factors and responses in the above figure. It is much easier to
start by giving consideration to these, than to the
content of the model. Indeed, it should be a fairly straightforward task to move from the modelling
objectives to the experimental factors. In effect, these are the means by which it is proposed that the
objectives are to be achieved.
II. Alternatively, the experimental factors may be less explicit, but can be obtained by simply asking the
clients how they intend to bring about the improvement in the operation of the real world system. The
modeller should also provide input to this discussion based on his/her knowledge of simulation. Altogether,
this might lead to a substantial list of factors.
III. Although the clients would often have control over the experimental factors in the real world, it is
 sometimes useful to experiment with factors over which they have little or no control (e.g. the arrival rate of
customers). By experimenting with such factors a greater understanding of the real system can be obtained.
This, after all, is a key benefit of simulation.

4. Designing the conceptual model: the model content-

I. Having identified the model’s inputs and outputs, the modeller can identify the content of the model
itself. In designing the content of the model, and indeed before this point is
reached, the modeller should consider whether simulation is the most suitable approach. This is particularly
pertinent because simulation is among the most arduous modelling approaches, and so alternatives should be
used whenever possible.
II. Assuming that simulation is deemed to be the right approach, the starting point in designing the model
content is to recognize that the model must be able to accept the experimental factors and to provide the
required responses. In this respect, the experimental factors and responses provide the basis of what the
model needs to include.
III. Having identified the immediate entry point of the experimental factors, and exit point of the responses,
the modeller must then identify the key interconnections between these and the other components of the real
world. It is only those interconnections that are judged to be important, with respect to correctly interpreting
the experimental factors and providing accurate values for the responses that need to be included in the
model.
IV. The scope of the model must be sufficient to provide a link between the experimental factors and the
responses.

Explain time slicing approach based on Simple Telephone Call Center Simulation.
Ans:
i. The simplest method for modelling the progress of time is the time-slicing approach in which a constant
time-step (Δt) is adopted. This is best explained with an example. In a telephone call centre, calls arrive
every 3 minutes and are passed to one of two operators who take 5 minutes to deal with the customer (below
figure). It is assumed for now that there is no variation in the inter-arrival time and the service time.
ii. Below table shows 24 minutes of simulation of the call centre with t set to 1 minute. Column two shows
the time remaining until a call arrives. Columns three and four show the time remaining until a customer
service is complete. The number of calls completed by each operator is calculated.
iii. It is relatively simple to set up a time-slicing simulation for this situation. The same approach could be
used for more complex situations, although the table would soon become very large and possibly
unmanageable by hand. By devising a flow chart outlining the sequence of activities it would be possible to
develop a computer program to perform the simulation, making larger-scale simulations possible. The time-
slicing approach can also be modelled easily in a spreadsheet.
iv. There are two main problems with the time-slicing approach. First, it is very inefficient. During many of
the time-steps there is no change in the system-state and as a result many computations are unnecessary. In
below table the only points of interest are when a call arrives, when an operator takes a call and when an
operator completes a call. In total there
are 22 such points as opposed to the 72 (24×3) calculations performed in below table. This problem is only
likely to be exacerbated the larger the simulation becomes.
Figure - Time Slicing Approach: Simple Telephone Call Centre Simulation
 Table - Time Slicing Approach: Simple Telephone Call Centre Simulation

v. A second problem is determining the value of Δt. Albeit that a one-minute time-step seems obvious for
the example above, in most simulations the duration of activities cannot be counted in whole numbers. Also,
there is often a wide variation in activity times within a model from possibly seconds (or less) through to
hours, days, weeks or more. The discrete-event simulation approach addresses both of these issues.
Explain the requirements of Conceptual Model.
Ans:
There are four main requirements of a conceptual model:
1. Validity
2. Credibility
3. Utility
4. Feasibility

Validity:
a. A valid model is one that is sufficiently accurate for the purpose at hand. However, since the
notion of accuracy is of little meaning for a model that has no numeric output, conceptual model
validity might be defined more precisely as:

A perception, on behalf of the modeller, that the conceptual model will lead to a computer model that
is sufficiently accurate for the purpose at hand.

b. Underlying this notion is the question of whether the model is right. Note that this definition
places conceptual model validity as a perception of the modeller. It also maintains the notion that a
model is built for a specific purpose, which is common to most definitions of validity.

Credibility:
Credibility is similar to validity, but is taken from the perspective of the clients rather than the
modeller. The credibility of the conceptual model is therefore defined as:

A perception, on behalf of the clients, that the conceptual model will lead to a computer model that is
sufficiently accurate for the purpose at hand.

Utility:
The third concept, utility, is defined as:

A perception, on behalf of the modeller and the clients, that the conceptual model will lead to a
computer model that is useful as an aid to decision-making within the specified context.

a. Whereas the definitions of validity and credibility are specific to the modeller and the clients
respectively, utility is seen as a joint agreement about the usefulness of the model.
b. The concept of utility, as defined here, moves away from simply asking if the model is
sufficiently accurate, to whether it is useful. Within any context a range of
models could be designed, all of which might be sufficiently accurate for the purpose at hand. As such, all
these models would be valid and credible.
c. However, if a proposed model is large and cumbersome, albeit sufficiently accurate, it may have
limited utility. Indeed, a less accurate (but still sufficiently accurate), more flexible model that runs
faster may have greater utility by enabling a wider range of experimentation within a time-frame.

Feasibility:
a. The final requirement, feasibility, is defined as follows:

A perception, on behalf of the modeller and the clients, that the conceptual model can be developed
into a computer model.

b. Various factors may make a model infeasible. For instance, it might not be possible to build the
proposed model within the required time-scale, the data requirements of the model may be too
onerous, or there is insufficient knowledge of the real system to develop the proposed model.
Whichever, it is important that the conceptual model can be developed inton a computer model.

A final point to note is that these four concepts are not mutually exclusive. A modeller’s perception of
a model’s accuracy is likely to be highly correlated with the clients’perceptions of the same. Nor is an
infeasible model a useful model. It is useful,
however, to separate these concepts, so a modeller can be cognizant of them when
designing the conceptual model.

Explain the three phase simulation approach.

Ans:
In the three-phase simulation approach events are classified into two types.
 B (bound or booked) events: these are state changes that are scheduled to occur at a point in time.
 C (conditional) events: these are state changes that are dependent on the conditions in the model.

I. In order to demonstrate the three-phase approach a slightly more complex call centre example is
now introduced (Figure no. 1). Two types of customer (X, Y) make calls to the centre. Calls arrive
from a customer type X every 5 minutes and from a customer type Y every 10 minutes. Arriving calls
are placed in a queue (denoted by a circle) before the call router (a touch tone menu system) directs
the call to the right operator; an activity that takes 1 minute. There are two operators, the first takes
all customer X calls, the second all customer Y calls. Operator 1 takes exactly 4 minutes to deal with
a call and operator 2 exactly 7 minutes.
II. As a first step all of the B and C events for the system need to be defined. These are shown in
below tables respectively. Note the column that specifies which events are to be scheduled following
an event, for instance, the arrival of a customer type X leads to the next arrival being scheduled
(event B1). Since each C-event represents the start of an activity, they schedule the B-event that
represents the completion of
that activity. For events B4 and B5 the calls are output to the ‘‘world’’. This term means that the
calls are passed out of the model. Also note that for event B4 and B5
statistics are collected on the number of customers served. For each C-event the conditions for it to be
executed are specified.
Figure no. 1 - Discrete-Event Simulation Approach: Telephone Call Centre
Simulation.
 Table no. 1 - Telephone Call Centre Simulation: B-Events

Table no. 2 - Telephone Call Centre: C-Events

III. Having identified all the events, the system can be simulated. Figure no.2 outlines the three-phase
approach. At the start of the simulation the initial state of the model is determined. This may involve
placing work-in-progress in the model in order to create a realistic initial condition. The initial B-
events are also scheduled, for instance, the arrival of the first customers. Scheduled events are placed
into an event list that keeps a record of all future events that have been scheduled. The simulation
then moves into three phases that are continuously repeated.
IV. In the A-phase, which is also known as the simulation executive, the time of the next event is
determined by inspecting the event list. The simulation clock is then advanced to the time of the next
event. In the B-phase all B-events due at the clock time are executed. In the C-phase all C-events are
attempted and those for which the conditions are met are executed. Since the successful execution of
a C-event may mean that another C-event can now be executed, the simulation continues to attempt
C-events until no further events can be executed. The simulation then returns to the A-phase unless it
is deemed that the simulation is complete. Typically a simulation is run for a predetermined run-
length or possibly a set number of arrivals.
What are the three different methods of simulation modeling ? Explain discrete event based
modeling.
Ans:
1. By method in simulation modeling, we mean a general framework for mapping a real world system
to its model. A method suggests a type of language, or “terms and conditions” for model building.
To date, there exist three methods:
 System dynamics
 Discrete event modeling
 Agent based modeling

Discrete Event Based Modeling:

1. Discrete Event Modeling is almost as old as system dynamics. In Oct 1961, IBM engineer
Geoffrey Gordon introduced the first version of GPSS (General Purpose
Simulation System, originally Gordon’s Programmable Simulation System), which is considered to be
the first method of software implementation of discrete event
modeling.
2. The idea of discrete event modeling method is this: the modeler considers the system being
modeled as a process, I.e. a sequence of operations being performed across entities.
3. The operations include delays, service by various resources, choosing the process branch,
splitting, combining, and some others.
4. As long as entities compete for resources and can be delayed, queues are present in virtually any
discrete event model.
5. The model is specified graphically as a process flowchart, where blocks represent operations
(there are textual languages as well, but they are in the minority). The flowchart usually begins with
“source” blocks that generate entities and inject them
into the process, and ends with “sink” blocks that remove entities.
6. Entities (originally in GPSS they were called transactions) may represent clients,
patients, phone calls, documents (physical and electronic), parts, products, pallets, computer
transactions, vehicles, tasks, projects, and ideas. Resources represent various staff, doctors, operators,
workers, servers, CPUs, computer memory, equipment, and transport.
7. The typical output expected from a discrete event model is:
 Utilization of resources
 Time spent in the system or its part by an entity
 Waiting times
 Queue lengths
 System throughput
 Bottlenecks
 Cost of the entity processing and its structure
Abstraction Level:
1. As you can see, the level of abstraction suggested by discrete event modeling is
significantly lower than that of system dynamics.
2. While in system dynamics we aggregate individual objects and talk about the
dynamics of their quantities, in discrete event modeling each object in system is
represented by an entity or a resource unit, and keeps its individuality.
3. In discrete event models, time delays can be deterministic or stochastic with any
probability distribution. In system dynamics, “natural” delays have an exponential
distribution and deterministic delays are special constructs.

Underlying Mathematics and Simulation Engine:

1. The mathematics behind discrete event simulation are based on discrete time. The
model clock is advanced only when something significant happens in the model -
namely, when an entity starts or finishes the operation.
2. Any change in the model is associated with those events; continuous changes are
approximated by instantaneous ones.

Software models:
Unlike system dynamics, discrete event modeling is supported by tens (if not
hundreds) of software tools. There is no uniformly accepted language for specifying
discrete event models; interoperatibilty is not possible, and not even planned by
software vendors.