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2020-11 Monthly Housing Market Outlook
2020-11 Monthly Housing Market Outlook
2020-11 Monthly Housing Market Outlook
Housing Market
Update
Monthly Sales and
Price Statistics
November 2020
California housing market: sales above 500K,
price dipped below $700K, supply lowest in years
November 2020
California, November 2020 Sales: 508,820 Units, +1.3% YTD, +26.3% YTY, +5.0% MTM
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-13
Sep-15
Sep-17
Sep-19
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
May-20
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
9
California home sales had largest year-over-year
growth since May 2009
30% Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg) 26.3%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
0%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Bay Area
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Bay Area sales growth rebounded
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sep-20
11
34.4%
page
YoY % chg.
0%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
So CA
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
Sep-17
Jan-18
So. California sales growth ticked back up
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sep-20
19.1%
12
page
YoY % chg.
0%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
10%
20%
30%
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Central Valley
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Central Valley sales bounced back
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
May-20
Sep-20
13
18.3%
page
Sales growth more robust in higher price segments
23%
2020
$1M+ 2019
17%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
Apr-19
Apr-20
Sep-19
Sep-20
Mar-19
Mar-20
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jun-19
Nov-19
Jun-20
Nov-20
Aug-19
Aug-20
Feb-19
Feb-20
May-19
May-20
Dec-18
Dec-19
Jan-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Oct-20
SERIES: Percent Change in Sales page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
15
Sales in high-end market continue to outpace
more affordable market
140% $0 - $999k $1M - $2.99M $3M+
120%
100% 93.0%
YTY % Chg. in Sales
80% 63.3%
60%
40%
20% 13.4%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
Apr-19
Apr-20
Sep-19
Sep-20
Mar-19
Mar-20
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jun-19
Nov-19
Jun-20
Nov-20
Aug-19
Aug-20
Feb-19
Feb-20
May-19
May-20
Dec-19
Jan-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Oct-20
SERIES: Percent Change in Sales page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
16
Sales by Region
S.F. Bay
Southern Area
California 20%
47%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-18.2%
-40%
40%
YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales
30%
20% 21.5%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
19
Pending sales in the top end remained robust
but growth pace slowed
150% $0 - $999k $1M - $2.99M $3M+
YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales
100%
62.5%
50% 61.9%
15.6%
0%
-50%
-100%
Apr-19
Apr-20
Sep-19
Sep-20
Mar-19
Mar-20
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jun-19
Nov-19
Jun-20
Nov-20
Aug-19
Aug-20
Feb-19
Feb-20
May-19
May-20
Dec-19
Jan-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Oct-20
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
20
Is it a good time to buy or sell?
Do you think it’s a good time to buy a Do you think it’s a good time to sell a
home in California? home in California?
59%
51% 55%
31%
24% 27%
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-19
Mar-20
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-19
Jul-20
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
May-19
May-20
May-19
May-20
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-19
Jan-20
SERIES: Google Consumer Poll page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
21
Price
California median price eased as it dipped below
$700K for 1st time in the last 4 months
California, November 2020: $699,000, -1.7% MTM, +18.5% YTY
$800,000
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-13
Sep-15
Sep-17
Sep-19
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
May-20
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
23
Condo/Townhome median price unchanged
$500,000
Median Price
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0 Apr-10
Apr-17
Sep-09
Sep-16
Mar-06
Mar-13
Mar-20
Jul-08
Jul-15
Nov-10
Jun-11
Nov-17
Jun-18
Aug-05
Aug-12
Aug-19
Feb-09
Feb-16
May-07
May-14
Dec-07
Dec-14
Jan-05
Oct-06
Jan-12
Oct-13
Jan-19
Oct-20
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
24
Median price growth slowed for Condo, but Single-
Family Homes remained strong
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-13
Sep-15
Sep-17
Sep-19
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
May-20
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
25
Price/Square foot grew from last year by double digits
for the 3rd consecutive month
November 2020: $332, +1.8% MTM, +15.3% YTY
$400
$350
PRICE PER SQ. FT.
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
26
Median Square footage of SFH
1,900
1,850 1,820
1,800
SQ. FT.
1,750
1,700
1,650
1,600
Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20
SERIES: Median Square Footage of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
27
Price/Square foot: the gap between condo/townhomes
and single-family homes narrowed slightly
$400
$350 $332
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
28
Sales price-to-list price ratio inched up
100%
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
29
List price ticked up while sales price growth
unchanged
60%
Listing Price Sales Price
50%
40%
YTY% Chg. in Price
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
30
Price growth up by double digits in all percentiles;
strongest gain in the top end
Year-over-Year Price Growth
35%
30% 28.8%
26.2% 26.8% 27.2%
25.0%
25%
20.6% 20.8% 21.0% 21.4%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-150%
-100%
0%
-50%
100%
150%
50%
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Price Growth
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
California Market Velocity and Price Growth
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Market Velocity (12 month trailing average)
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
33
YTY% Chg.
5% 5.5%
3% 2.77% 0%
-5%
2% -10%
-15%
1%
Apr-17
Sep-17
Mar-20
Jun-16
Nov-16
Jul-18
Aug-20
Feb-18
May-19
Dec-18
Jan-16
Oct-19
0%
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
10%
5% 5.5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
18.0
16.0 Nov 2019: 3.1 Months; Nov 2020: 1.9 Months
14.0
Months of Supply
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-13
Sep-15
Sep-17
Sep-19
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
May-20
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
37
Unsold Inventory remained low in all regions
9.0
8.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley
7.0
Months of Supply
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.0 1.6
0.0
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
38
Active listings dipped below last month
to lowest level in over 15 years
California Active Listings by Month
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
40
Housing supply remains tight in all regions
Nov-19 Nov-20
25,000
21,496
20,000
Active Listings
15,000
10,972
10,000 8,394
4,747 3,921
5,000 3,859
2,159 1,9261,154
1,160
0
San Francisco Southern Central Valley Central Coast Far North
Bay Area California
SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
41
Supply continued to drop as sales remain strong
November 2020
Sales Active Listings
40% 34.4% 33.4%
30%
19.1%
Year-to-Year % Chg
18.3%
20%
10% 3.1%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30% -18.7%
-40%
-50% -40.1%
-49.0% -46.3%
-60% -53.3%
San Francisco Southern Central Valley Central Coast Far North
Bay Area California
SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
42
Active listings dropped in all price segments
10%
0%
-10%
-8.7%
-20%
-30% -22.9%
-40%
-50%
-60% -55.4%
-70%
Apr-19
Apr-20
Sep-19
Sep-20
Mar-19
Mar-20
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jun-19
Nov-19
Jun-20
Nov-20
Aug-19
Aug-20
Feb-19
Feb-20
May-19
May-20
Dec-19
Jan-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Oct-20
SERIES: Percent Change in Active Listings page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
43
Market Competitiveness
Time on market was the lowest it’s ever been
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-13
Sep-15
Sep-17
Sep-19
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
May-20
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
45
Median time on market down at all percentiles
26 26 26 25
23 24 24 24 24
22
20
12 11 11 12
9 10 9
10 8 8
0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile
Nov-19 Nov-20
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Apr-10
Apr-15
Apr-20
Sep-10
Sep-15
Sep-20
Jul-11
Mar-13
Jul-16
Mar-18
Jun-09
Nov-09
Jun-14
Nov-14
Jun-19
Nov-19
Aug-13
Aug-18
Feb-11
Feb-16
May-12
May-17
Dec-11
Dec-16
Jan-09
Oct-12
Jan-14
Oct-17
Jan-19
Listing Price Sales Price
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 28.4%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.5%
50% 0%
45% -1%
40% -2%
35% -3%
30% -4%
25% -5%
20% -6%
15% -7%
10% -8%
5% -9%
0% -10%
1/1/2010
6/1/2010
4/1/2011
9/1/2011
2/1/2012
7/1/2012
5/1/2013
3/1/2014
8/1/2014
1/1/2015
6/1/2015
4/1/2016
9/1/2016
2/1/2017
7/1/2017
5/1/2018
3/1/2019
8/1/2019
1/1/2020
6/1/2020
11/1/2010
12/1/2012
10/1/2013
11/1/2015
12/1/2017
10/1/2018
11/1/2020
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
49
Growth in Reduced-Price Listings
1/1/2016
4/1/2016
7/1/2016
1/1/2017
4/1/2017
7/1/2017
1/1/2018
4/1/2018
7/1/2018
1/1/2019
4/1/2019
7/1/2019
1/1/2020
4/1/2020
7/1/2020
10/1/2015
10/1/2016
10/1/2017
10/1/2018
10/1/2019
10/1/2020
Share Reduced Median Reduction