Project Paper

Course Title: Economics

Course Code: ECO 314

Title: "An Analysis of the Effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on the Phillips

Curve (Unemployment, Inflation & Wage) "

This Project Paper create and Submitted BY

Salma Akter
183-15-2293
Md. Khobayer Khan
183-15-2262
Omme Hany
183-15-2242
Mahmudur Rahman Rifat
183-15-2296
Abstract:
Covid-19 has upended societies and dramatically altered everyday life across the globe. Our
present circumstances, while unprecedented, have been profoundly shaped by persistent
societal realities such as entrenched racial and economic inequality, the proliferation of
misinformation, and anxieties about the ability of the world’s democracies to confront major
crises. In-depth social understanding will be vital to apprehending the crisis and charting a
path forward. We provide a simple model to understand some macroeconomic implications
of the coronavirus epidemic. We focus on a scenario in which the Covid-19 outbreak causes
a persistent supply disruption, potentially extending beyond the end of the epidemic. We
show that the spread of the virus might generate a demand-driven slump, give rise to a
supply-demand doom loop, and open the door to stagnation traps induced by pessimistic
animal spirits. Aggressive policies to support investment can reverse the supply-demand
doom loop and jumpstart the economy out of stagnation traps.

Keywords:
coronavirus pandemic, COVID-19, Fiscal policy, hysteresis, monetary policy,
Productivity Growth, stagnation traps, supply-demand doom loop.

Introduction:
The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the coronavirus disease 2019
(COVID-19) a pandemic. A global coordinated effort is needed to stop the further spread
of the virus. A pandemic is defined as “occurring over a wide geographic area and
affecting an exceptionally high proportion of the population.” The last
pandemic reported in the world was the H1N1 flu pandemic in 2009.On 31 December
2019, a cluster of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause, in the city of Wuhan, Hubei
province in China, was reported to the World Health Organization. In January 2020, a
previously unknown new virus was identified, subsequently named the 2019 novel
coronavirus, and samples obtained from cases and analysis of the virus’ genetics
indicated that this was the cause of the outbreak. This novel coronavirus was named
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) by WHO in February 2020. The virus is referred
to as SARS-CoV-2 and the associated disease is COVID-19. As of 15 May 2020, over
4,444,670 cases have been identified globally in 188 countries with a total of over
302,493 fatalities. Also 1,588,858 were recovered. Typically, Coronaviruses present
with respiratory symptoms. Among those who will become infected, some will show no
symptoms. Those who do develop symptoms may have a mild to moderate, but self -
limiting disease with symptoms similar to the seasonal flu. Symptoms may include:

➢ Respiratory symptoms
➢ Fever
➢ Cough
➢ Shortness of breath
➢ Breathing difficulties
 ➢ Fatigue
➢ Sore throat

A minority group of people will present with more severe symptoms and will need to
be hospitalized, most often with pneumonia, and in some instances, the illness can
include ARDS, sepsis and septic shock. Emergency warning signs where immediate
medical attention should be sought include:

➢ Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath

➢ Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
➢ New confusion or inability to arouse
➢ Bluish lips or face

Literature Review:
At the time of writing, there are already millions of documented infections worldwide by
the novel coronavirus 2019 (2019-nCoV or severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus
2 (SARS-CoV2)), with hundreds of thousands of deaths. The great majority of fatal events
have been recorded in adults older than 70 years; of them, a large proportion had
comorbidities. Since data regarding the epidemiologic and clinical characteristics in
neonates and children developing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are scarce and
originate mainly from one country (China), we reviewed all the current literature from 1
December 2019 to 7 May 2020 to provide useful information about SARS-CoV2 viral
biology, epidemiology, diagnosis, clinical features, treatment, prevention, and hospital
organization for clinicians dealing with this selected population. Severe acute respiratory
syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) is the virus responsible for the coronavirus disease
2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Since its first outbreak in Wuhan, in the Hubei province of
China in early December 2019, SARS-CoV2 has spread all over the world infecting
millions of people and causing hundreds of thousands of deaths [case fatality rate (CFR):
6.25%, John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, accessed 7 May 2020]. Respiratory
viral infections, in general, are more frequent and severe in children than in adults. SARS-
CoV2, instead, showed a different scenario. Infection rates appear to be similar between
children and adults; however, children develop a milder illness with a low CFR (<0.1%).
The reasons for this milder severity in childhood are not yet understood, and the actual
epidemiologic and clinical data of infected neonates and children are not sufficient to solve
these gaps. Thus, due to the scarcity of data on SARS-CoV2 in children, we aimed at
evaluating the current literature available to provide useful information for clinicians
dealing with this particular population.

• 80,408 new cases and 963 new deaths in the United States
• 4,382 new cases and 111 new deaths in Switzerland
• 5,554 new cases and 214 new deaths in Spain.
• 2,431 new cases and 77 new deaths in Czechia
• 37 new cases in Maldives
• 68 new cases in Channel Islands
• 51 new cases in Andorra
• 14,374 new cases and 232 new deaths in Germany
• 521 new cases in Sri Lanka
• 24,099 new cases and 814 new deaths in Italy
• 671 new cases and 8 new deaths in the Dominican Republic
• 3,126 new cases and 53 new deaths in Canada
• 803 new cases and 12 new deaths in Algeria
• 1,478 new cases and 11 new deaths in Lebanon
• 16,298 new cases and 504 new deaths in the United Kingdom
• 32,736 new cases and 193 new deaths in Turkey
• 35,030 new cases and 473 new deaths in India
• 5 new cases in Lesotho
• 588 new cases and 6 new deaths in Luxembourg
• 535 new cases and 6 new deaths in Montenegro
• 42 new cases and 1 new death in San Marino
• 1 new case in Isle of Man
• 8,534 new cases and 125 new deaths in Brazil
• 4,935 new cases and 79 new deaths in Portugal
• 73 new cases in Cameroon
• 41 new cases in Tajikistan
• 1,059 new cases and 5 new deaths in Israel
• 120 new cases and 1 new death in Mozambique
• 1,648 new cases and 98 new deaths in Greece
• 149 new cases in the DR Congo
• 98 new cases and 1 new death in Réunion
• 1,522 new cases and 21 new deaths in Moldova
• 1,784 new cases and 61 new deaths in Slovenia
• 429 new cases and 2 new deaths in Ghana
• 866 new cases and 6 new deaths in Kenya
• 1,729 new cases and 39 new deaths in Chile
• 801 new cases and 18 new deaths in Albania
• 2,405 new cases and 27 new deaths in Japan
• 76 new cases and 1 new death in Jamaica
• 3,116 new cases and 51 new deaths in Jordan
• 752 new cases and 15 new deaths in Guatemala
• 7,782 new cases and 69 new deaths in Serbia
• 343 new cases and 2 new deaths in Kuwait
• 1,502 new cases and 31 new deaths in Myanmar
• 1 new case in Seychelles
• 12 new cases in Liechtenstein
• 5,874 new cases and 58 new deaths in the Netherlands
• 234 new cases and 10 new deaths in Saudi Arabia
• 1,254 new cases and 53 new deaths in Bosnia and Herzegovina
• 1,311 new cases and 1 new death in the United Arab Emirates
• 1,774 new cases and 9 new deaths in Belarus
• 20 new deaths in Sweden
• 1,603 new cases and 9 new deaths in Denmark
• 1,855 new cases and 26 new deaths in Iraq
• 166 new cases in Qatar
• 686 new cases and 7 new deaths in Latvia
• 1 new death in Norway
• 4,267 new cases and 41 new deaths in Azerbaijan
• 4 new cases in Gibraltar
• 14 new cases in Iceland
• 123 new cases and 1 new death in Malta
• 1,272 new cases and 16 new deaths in Nepal
• 8,062 new cases and 176 new deaths in Romania
• 1,968 new cases and 17 new deaths in the State of Palestine
• 3,815 new cases and 113 new deaths in Austria
• 13,341 new cases and 347 new deaths in Iran
• 80 new cases and 1 new death in Senegal
• 1,141 new cases in Malaysia
• 3,955 new cases and 68 new deaths in Croatia
• 336 new cases in Finland
• 680 new cases and 7 new deaths in Libya
• 5,803 new cases and 124 new deaths in Indonesia
• 470 new cases and 2 new deaths in Estonia
• 203 new cases and 8 new deaths in El Salvador
• 13,239 new cases and 531 new deaths in Poland
• 2,184 new cases and 27 new deaths in Slovakia
• 2,252 new cases and 24 new deaths in Bangladesh
• 112 new cases and 1 new death in China, Hong Kong SAR
• 19 new cases in Guinea
• 2 new cases in Fiji
• 6,212 new cases and 189 new deaths in Hungary
• 27,403 new cases and 569 new deaths in Russia
• 934 new cases and 63 new deaths in the Philippines
• 3 new cases in Singapore
• 2,518 new cases and 26 new deaths in Lithuania
• 130 new cases and 6 new deaths in Afghanistan
• 5,068 new cases and 38 new deaths in Georgia
• 1,184 new cases and 23 new deaths in Armenia
• 4 new cases in Taiwan
• 15,131 new cases and 235 new deaths in Ukraine
• 10 new cases in Australia
• 161 new cases in Uzbekistan
 • 440 new cases and 4 new deaths in Kyrgyzstan
• 1 new case in Anguilla
• 14 new cases in Thailand
• 3 new cases in Bhutan
• 616 new cases and 8 new deaths in Honduras
• 2,605 new cases and 122 new deaths in Belgium
• 13 new cases in Sint Maarten
• 12 new cases in Mongolia
• 819 new cases in Kazakhstan
• 3,262 new cases and 55 new deaths in Pakistan
• 4 new cases in Cambodia
• 629 new cases and 7 new deaths in South Korea
• 2 new cases in Papua New Guinea
• 192 new cases and 10 new deaths in Bolivia
• 11,030 new cases and 608 new deaths in Mexico
• 17 new cases in China

Objectives:
This research study aims to describe the health outcomes of people diagnosed with
COVID-19 in Queensland, over time and in relation to patient characteristics, by combining
COVID-19 notification, hospital, general practice and death registry data. General practice
patient health information, in comparison to hospital data, contains additional, more detailed
and up-to-date information on patient characteristics, including health conditions and
medications at the time of infection. We will be contacting patients who have or have had
COVID-19 and will be inviting them to participate by giving their individual consent.

The main objectives of COVID-19 STUDY are:

1. To quantify hospital-based outcomes and deaths, including in relation to
sociodemographic characteristics and comorbidities as ascertained from hospital
AND general practice data.
2. To estimate the strength of association between these outcomes and
sociodemographic and health characteristics.

Develop more effective influenza vaccines using new technologies.

The ideal product profile is a vaccine which:
• is safe and highly protective, preferably in all target groups, including infants, the
elderly, pregnant women and immunosuppressed individuals
• is easily and inexpensively produced on a large scale
• is effective - preferably with a low dose of antigen
• is delivered, ideally, as a single dose
• is thermostable; and
• offers protection for a minimum duration of one year, including protection against
antigenically drifted viruses
Methodology:
In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic,
caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus. Following the call from the WHO to immediately
assess available data to learn what care approaches are most effective and evaluate the effects
of therapies, this collection aims to report on original peer-reviewed research articles in
methodological approaches to medical research related to COVID-19.

Analysis:
This research article develops a rational framework to comprehend the spatiotemporal
structures of epidemic illness (COVID-19) incident, its applicability, and its significances
to financial markets action. The article proposes a paradigm shift which is a new
multidimensional geometric approach that has to apprehend all proportional and
asymmetrical strategic illustrated tendencies. The epidemic impact on economic activity
differs in terms of magnitude and intensity: an economy experiences a supply and demand
shocks in the short-run with instant effects in output and employment. This has generated
unparalleled amounts of vulnerability, which is a relatively limited amount of time that has
incurred substantial risks to investors. This paper seeks to chart the general dynamics of
global derivatives markets with country-specific threats and structural threats. The COVID-
19 catastrophe has accelerated crucial disturbances for exchange rates and international
capital cycles. Cross-border portfolio investment halted in many developing markets as well
as in some progressive economies in 2020. All show that in this pandemic situation
coronavirus affects financial markets and extreme volatility in the financial market. Nations
have not had to utilize capital supervision. To assistance foreign currency liquidity,
numerous developing markets have negotiated in the foreign exchange market and slowed
down regulations on capital influxes. The globalization of financial markets is directed to
the gigantic expansion of magnitude and diversification of financial trades. Finally, all
sections show and describe in detail this topic and give some recommendations to overcome
this situation. The data used or this study is secondary data collected by planning
commission of Trade and industry office of North Wollo zone administration. Then after
obtaining the data methodologically more emphasis is given for descriptive method of
analysis. The tabular and graphical presentations are applied to observe the change in
unemployment and prices of commodities. In addition to those descriptive methods,
econometric model specifically simple linear regression had been applied to see the
relationship between unemployment and price level as a test or the applicability of
downward sloping Philips curve which states the inverse relationship between those two
economic variables. There is a need to test.
Unemployment due to corona virus:
Sectorial specification: Monthly change in Unemployment

No. Sectors March April May June July August September Total
1. Service 10440 7538 1410 4584 1300 1450 850 27572
2. Industry 2100 1540 1564 460 826 - - 6490
3. Agriculture 851 225 167 30 - - - 1273

Ratio of un employed persons from public,

private and self-employments

Number of unemployed
No. Areas Remarks Ratio
1. Private 16255 45.9%
2. Public 8264 23.4%
3. Self-employed 10816 30.7%
Total 35335 100%

The table presented above indicates that majority of unemployment arises from service
sector since almost all activities in hotels, restaurants, game zones, and tourism offices
seized their normal functioning because of quarantined cleared by the government.
Additionally those individuals who had been unemployed from the public sector are for
temporal time since there is no customer to be served because of the stay at home command
.Again as we can see from the pie chart presented above, the highest proportion of
unemployment is arisen from the private sector since the greedy nature of company owners
obliged them to fire many of their workers without any compromises and the inability of
the government to share the internationally organization financed money for the owner of
private companies. Then this high unemployment increment leads to the fails of production
in every sector and creates shortage of good and service demanded by the society. Then
because of this rise in demand in relation to supply shortage and consumers future
expectation on availability of commodities, the average price level of the town increased at
very significant level.
Average price of fruits and vegetables:

Before Covid-19 During the first month of Covid-19 period

No. Items Unit price/kilo Unit price/kilo Rise in price (%)
1. Banana 35 35 0
2. Orange 60 70 16.7
3. Tomato 25 40 60
4. Onion 20 40 100
5. Potato 20 25 25
6. Pepper 60 80 33.3
7. Lemon 2/unit 5/unit 150
8. Salad 8/unit 15/unit 87.5
Average rise in the price of fruits and vegetables 59.1

Individuals are suffering a lot from the effect of the corona virus since the average price of
those commodities is rising by more than half. This indicates that dwellers of the town are
acting a difficulty of having access to one of the basic needs called food. Since fruits are
more important for the healthy functioning our body peoples in this area are said to be
incurring the nutrients obtained from fruits and may be faced health distortion when
lacking the required vitamins. Average tariff for transportation from Woldia town to
another nearby town.

Findings:
The massive spread of corona creates pressure on the general systems of the world countries.
As stated in some studies corona virus affect every institution and individuals of the world
in many aspects. Specifically, it results in high unemployment, low level of production and
significance rise in the nominal price of commodities. This study tries to explain the change
in those economic variables to analyze the effect of Covid-19 on the living standard of
households in Woldia town, Amhara regional state of Ethiopia using a data obtained from
the north wollo zone planning commission which had been collected from sampled
individuals monthly. Since the issue is so recent and absence of many conducted researches
on this area, this article has no specific chapter for review of literature and gives more focus
for data analysis part. Then descriptive analysis indicates the presence of valuable rise in
unemployment and average price levels simultaneously and the OLS regression result
disproved the applicability of Philips curve for the study area under the influence of
COVID-19. While it emerged from animal hosts, currently COVID-19 continues to spread
across the globe through human-to-human contact. It resulted in many socio economies
impacts on the world society and deteriorates their day-to-day activities. Unemployment is
the major manifestation of COVID-19 due quarantine requirement designed to control the
spread of the virus and this indirectly creates high level of increments in the average price
of consumer necessity goods. As per the descriptive and econometric analysis of this study
there is high unemployment and rise in average price at a time opposed to the assumption
of Philips curve.
Conclusions & Policy Recommendations:
Coronavirus can be considered as a respiratory disorder spreads from person to person. It
had been caused by theSARS-CoV-2 virus and it belongs to the identical family of corona
viruses that caused the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in 2003 and therefore
the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in 2012. This pandemic was reported in
early January 2019 in Wuhan city in Hubei province of People’s Republic of China. While
it emerged from animal hosts, currently COVID-19 continues to spread across the globe
through human-to-human contact. It resulted in many socio economies impacts on the world
society and deteriorates their day-to-day activities. Unemployment is the major
manifestation of COVID-19 due quarantine requirement designed to control the spread of
the virus and this indirectly creates high level of increments in the average price of consumer
necessity goods. As per the descriptive and econometric analysis of this study there is high
unemployment and rise in average price at a time opposed to the assumption of Philips
curve.

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