Will printed books become obsolete in the next 10 years?

Books are a fundamental part of people’s lives. They provide the foundation upon which a
critical part of the process of learning is based, beginning from early childhood throughout
adulthood, and are also a source of comfort and relaxation, as well as imagination and
creativity. However, the importance of books has undergone a dramatic transformation within
the past couple of years. Society is slowly but surely transitioning over to a digital age, and
books are no exception. With barely a flick of the digital switch, the era of the printed book
has given way to its modern-day equivalent: e-books. The e-book phenomenon is steadily
taking over the world, and the question is raised whether or not the printed book as we know
it today will become obsolete in the next 10 years as a result of the advances being made in
technology. But despite their predicted and already mourned death, printed books will not
completely disappear not only because they present an integral part of the global publishing
industry, but also because they offer a sensory and tactile experience which enhances the
enjoyment of the reader, and because of the effect they have on cognition, long-term memory
and in-depth reading.

First of all, printed books will not have become obsolete in the next 10 year because of the
integral role they play in the billion-dollar publishing industry, especially in the USA as one
of the leading economic forces of the 21 st century. Ever since the invention of the printing
press in the fifteenth century, which provided the technical precondition for a widespread
dispersal of the written word, the world of publishing has been steadily on the rise [ CITATION
Per75 \l 1033 ]. Although the book industry has faced numerous challenges these past few
years, ranging from the increased popularity of digital media to the hardships faced by retail
bookstores, according to the Association of American Publishers’ annual report of 2019,
publishers made almost $26 billion in revenue in the U.S., with print making up $22.6 billion
and e-books taking only $2.04 billion in revenue, which is almost 10% less [CITATION Ass19 \l
1033 ]. The inference that can be drawn from this data is that while digital media has
disrupted many other industries in the world, printed books still compose a big part of the
global publishing industry and because of this impact they have on economy, they will not
become obsolete in the near future.

The second reason why printed books will not disappear in the next 10 years is the sensory
and tactile experience they provide, which enhances the reader’s enjoyment. According to
cognitive neuroscientist and professor of child development Maryanne Wolf, there is

1
physicality in reading, which means that when reading printed paper books, there is a
physical connection between brain, body, and text[CITATION Mar18 \t \l 1033 ]. Printed books
are a tactile experience, meaning they are supposed to be experienced through touch and
smell, and people love the way books feel in their hands and even the way they smell
[CITATION Jef08 \l 1033 ]. Furthermore, paper books have more obvious topography than
onscreen text. They present the reader with two clearly defined domains—the left and right
pages—with which to orient oneself, making it easier to form a coherent mental map
[ CITATION Jab13 \l 1033 ]. E-readers, on the other hand, fail to adequately recreate certain
tactile experiences of reading on paper[CITATION Mar18 \t \l 1033 ]. In this line of thought, it
can be inferred that because of the treasured sensory and tactile experience printed books
provide [ CITATION Ada15 \l 1033 ], they will always have a place on the shelves of readers and
thus they will not disappear in the near future.

Finally, printed books will not become obsolete because of the effect they have on cognition,
long-term memory and in-depth reading, which is different than the effect that e-books have.
Neuroscience has revealed that humans use entirely different parts of the brain when reading
from a screen and when reading from a paper [CITATION Wol08 \t \l 1033 ]. When reading
from a screen, the brain merely skims through the text but reading from a paper allows the
brain the luxury of deep concentrated reading. In this context deep reading is defined as an
array of sophisticated processes that propel comprehension and include inferential and
deductive reasoning, analogical skills, critical analysis, reflection, and insight [CITATION
Wol09 \t \l 1033 ]. Therefore, reading paper books, which allows for in-depth reading and
comprehension, improves cognitive skills, most notable those of deduction, analysis and
reflection. Furthermore, one study found that students who read on paper learned the study
material more thoroughly and did not have to spend much time searching their minds for
information from the text because the answers were stored in their long-term memory
[ CITATION JMN03 \l 1033 ]. Consequently, printed books will not disappear in the next 10
years because they improve cognition, long-term memory and in-depth reading.

To sum it up, despite many booklovers all over the world already mourning the death of the
printed book, it is a premature fear. Printed books will not be consigned to history by digital
media and e-books because they perform a fundamentally important role in the billion-dollar
publishing industry, with 10% more revenue than the e-books that are prophesized to replace
them bring. Furthermore, the tactile and sensory experience they provide is invaluable to
many people who prefer to hold and smell paper books, thus people will continue to do the

2
majority of reading in an ink-on-paper format for the experience and will prevent printed
books from disappearing from the shelves. Moreover, printed books have a profound impact
on cognition, memory, analytic and deductive skills because of the in-depth reading they
offer. Readers will always seek this deeper, linear reading provided by paperback books but
unavailable on digital screens, hence forestalling them from becoming obsolete in the near
future, especially in the next 10 years. The digital age may be merciless and intent on
inhabiting every sphere of human life, but readers will continue to passionately defend
printed books and their treasured properties, therefore saving them from oblivion and
obsolescence.

References

AAP. (2019). AAP StatShot Annual Report: Book Publishing Revenues Up Slightly to $25.93
Billion in 2019. Association of American Publishers.
Gedin, P. (1975). Literature in the Marketplace. Faber and Faber Limited.
Gomez, J. (2008). Print Is Dead: Books in our Digital Age. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Jabr, F. (2013, April 11). The Reading Brain in the Digital Age: The Science of Paper versus
Screens. Retrieved from Scientific American:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/reading-paper-screens/
Noyes, J., & Garland, K. (2003). VDT versus paper-based text: Reply to Mayes, Sims and
Koonce. International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics, 411-423.
Nuwer, R. (2016, January 25). Are paper books really disappearing? Retrieved from BBC
Future: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20160124-are-paper-books-really-
disappearing
Shatzkin, M. (2019). The Book Business: What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford University
Press.
Sternbergh, A. (2015, October 14). Why the Printed Book Will Last Another 500 Years.
Retrieved from Literary Hub: https://lithub.com/why-the-printed-book-will-last-
another-500-years/
Wolf, M. (2008). Proust and the Squid: The Story and Science of the Reading Brain.
HarperCollins.
Wolf, M. (2018). Reader, Come Home: The Reading Brain in a Digital World. Harper.
Wolf, M., & Barzillai, M. (2009, March). The Importance of Deep Reading. Educational
Leadership, 66(6), pp. 32-37.
Zhang, Y., & Kudva, S. (2014). E-books Versus Print Books: Readers’ Choices and. Journal
of the associaton for information, science and technology, 1695–1706.

3
4