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Impacts of Urban Sprawl on the Monarch Butterfly

Along the California Coast
Marissa Castro, Kurt Hofer, Jasmine Leon, Carolynne Lockling & Riley Vera
California State University, Monterey Bay

Abstract
The California coast was once a breeding ground for hundreds of thousands of monarch
butterflies on their migratory journey, but over the past few decades there has been a dramatic
decline in overwintering populations in California. As California's population has continued to
increase to nearly 40 million, urban sprawl has affected many ecosystems and natural habitats of
species in the state. This study aims to determine how monarch butterflies have been impacted
by urbanization throughout different cities along the coast of California. Specifically, it
investigates if the human population, number of parks, and tree cover are any indicators of the
reduction in population in ten cities including Santa Cruz, Pacific Grove, Goleta, Santa Barabara,
Pismo, Malibu, Huntington Beach, Dana Point, Carlsbad and San Diego. From the data collected
and analyzed the results have shown that there is a correlation between a higher human
population and a lower monarch butterfly population, however, there is not a defining
relationship between number of parks, and tree cover and an increase in monarch population.
These results suggest that further research must be done to look at other factors such as native
nectar plants, microclimates, and whether or not cities have butterfly sanctuaries or pledges to
help protect the species. This study addresses the many ways different cities and the general
public can get involved in the conservation of monarch butterflies, along with basic
understanding of including native plants to enhance monarch well-being in your area.

Introduction
Urban sprawl is defined as the uncontrolled growth of cities and towns, often consisting
of low-density residential housing, single-use zoning, and increased reliance on a privately-
owned vehicle for transportation. It occurs in part as a result of urban population growth as more
people relocate to cities and because of residents’ wishes for more living spaces and other
amenities. These wants can have a negative impact on a healthy ecosystem , however. Urban
sprawl results in an increase in energy consumption, traffic congestion, and pollution.
Furthermore, as cities grow outward, they encroach on wildlife habitats and thus lead to
fragmentation of surviving natural areas (Rafferty, 2020).
California is susceptible to urban sprawl. It has the largest population in the country, with
an estimated 40 million residents living there (Census Bureau). Additionally, ninety-five percent
of them reside in urban areas. Southern California is the most densely populated region. It has a
population of approximately 23 million people, while Northern California is home to 15 million,
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and the Central Valley to only 6.5 million, respectively (Census Bureau). By 2050, California’s
overall population is predicted to be between 50 and 70 million (Landis, 2002). How the state
will accommodate for this growth is uncertain. Space for housing developments is decreasing. A
study done by the Disappearing West found that 811 square miles of open space was lost
between 2001 and 2011. Thus, urban sprawl’s footprint increased by 13.1% (Center for
American Progress, 2016). By 2100, 5.06 million acres of open space are estimated to be
transformed for residential use (Landis, 2002).
Urban sprawl negatively impacts wildlife in that it results in forest fragmentation and
subsequent habitat loss. One species that is particularly vulnerable is the Danaus plexippus, or
the western monarch butterfly (Figure 1). Population counts for the western monarch have
declined by about 80% since the 1980s. Back then, numbers recorded were as high as 4.5 million
monarch butterflies; however, as of 2019,
they are on the brink of extinction with only
30,000 monarchs recorded in the annual
Thanksgiving count (Pelton, Schultz, Jepsen,
Hoffman- Black & Crone, 2019). This
drastic decline is in part due to the loss of
habitat and food scarcity. In their southern
migration along the west coast, monarchs
choose specific sites for overwintering.
These locations must be warm enough for
them to survive the winter, but cool enough
for them to conserve energy as the food
supply is low. Specifically, nectar plants do
not grow near the sites they overwinter in.
Therefore it is essential monarchs preserve
their fat reserves. They achieve this by not
traveling for the remainder of the winter season once they reach their destination and freezing
their reproductive system until spring. (Tuskes & Brower, 1978). California’s central and
southern coasts feature overwintering sites. Some noteworthy locations include Pacific Grove,
Pismo Beach, Santa Barbara, Goleta, and San Diego. The western monarchs flock to these cities
because they have mild winters which provide ideal conditions for them to survive comfortably
in (Pelton, Jepsen, Schultz, Fallon, & Black, 2016). Western monarch butterflies and humans
must therefore coexist in these cities. Some, such as Pacific Grove, recognize the importance of
this species and have instituted measures to protect them; however, Pacific Grove’s efforts alone
will not be enough to help increase the population. More cities need to take action.
Stakeholders involved with the western monarch butterfly’s survival include elected city
officials and paid staff, butterfly sanctuary volunteers, locals concerned with the future of the
sanctuary, other local museums, and the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (Marino,
2019). In Pacific Grove, some residents and sanctuary staff developed a mistrust for the city in
how it was handling the sanctuary, describing their management reflective of that of a park
instead of a nature preserve. The city, museum, and residents all held differing interests in regard
to what they wanted for the sanctuary. This polarization came to a head in 2009 when the
sanctuary ultimately suffered. Plants went unwatered. In one incident, the wrong nectar plant was
planted resulting in a dispute between a gardener and another sanctuary employee. Instances
such as these, as well as lower butterfly counts, resulted in lower tourist attendance. Thus, it is
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recommended that all stakeholders set aside their differences to do what is best for the
preservation of monarchs, in Pacific Grove and other cities with sanctuaries (Marino, 2019).
Our class has partnered with the city of Pacific Grove for the Sustainable City Year
Project program. This year, we collectively worked to compile a spreadsheet of cities across
California with information from the census regarding a city’s budget, the environment, water
sources, weather, sustainability plans, and outdoor recreation availability. As a group, we have
chosen to answer the research question: How has urban sprawl in recent decades impacted the
western monarch butterfly population?
We will incorporate categories such as “population” from the census data, “number of
parks”, and “percent of tree coverage”, along with the Western Monarch Thanksgiving Count
dataset from the Xerces Society for data analysis.

Background
Evidence of indigenous folklore indicates that the monarch butterfly migrations have
been a symbol of nature dating further back than written history in the United States (Popkin
2019). Nearly 274 years after the first Spanish explorer Sebasian Viscaino first stepped foot in
Monterey, the Pacific Grove Retreat Association was founded, along with a Methodist Seaside
resort and campground. It was then, in the year 1875, that the participants of these early religious
gatherings began to notice the overwhelming numbers of monarch Butterflies gathering amongst
Pacific Groves infamous pines (Riddell 2018). Monarch butterflies carry out an annual two-way
migration in both the eastern and western United states, flying southward to warmer
temperatures. The western monarch population consists of all those within the Rockies and west.
These monarchs eventually reach the California coast, where they reside for the winter. The
eastern population consists of the central and eastern United States in its entirety. These
monarchs make their way south through Texas and eventually into Mexico. There is also a small
population of the western population that makes their way down into western Mexico. However,
the majority of the western population remains in California for the winter. The migration south
for both the western and eastern migrations begins in the fall. Come spring, those monarchs
disperse from those overwintering sites back into the northern United States (Reppert, de Roode,
2018). Monarch butterflies have a very interesting and unique lifecycle, because they have two
types of generations. First there is the summer generation, those are butterflies where the adults
live just a few weeks, and are reproductively active, constantly searching for a mate and laying
eggs. There are typically 3 to 4 of those summer breeding generations from spring all the way
until August. But, then, in the late summer and fall is the migratory and overwintering
generation. These adults live for up to 8 months, and these are the individuals that migrate to
those overwintering sites. Those butterflies spend the whole winter at the overwintering sites,
and do not become reproductively active until the spring. Following a large mating event in the
spring, the monarchs leave those overwintering sites and go back out to find milkweed and lay
their eggs, where the short-lived summer generations begin. So, this means that the monarchs
seen on the California coast during the winter months are actually several generations removed
from those seen the previous year.
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The monarchs are guided by a series of environmental cues when beginning and carrying
out their migration. The fall migration is triggered by shortening day length and decreasing
overnight temperatures, the opposite being true for the spring, triggered by lengthening days and
warmer weather. Monarchs prepare for the fall migration by putting on body fat, using that fat
for energy for travel, converting sugars from nectar into stored fat. Migrating only during the
day, they glide on high altitude winds. This is a crucial energy saving technique for them,
allowing them to refrain from flapping its wings the entire way. It may take several weeks to
reach their destination, travelling hundreds or even thousands of miles(Reppert et. al 2016).
Monarchs use many different techniques for finding their way in migrating vast distances
to unknown destinations. One of the main methods they implore, as humans and many other
animals due, is using the sun to navigate. Monarchs use an internal clock to tell how many hours
it has been since the sun has risen, and then use the sun's place in the sky as its orientation,
adjusting their heading accordingly. Migrating birds use an almost identical method. The Time-
Compensated Sun Compass was proved to exist, in monarchs, by researcher Sandra Perez in
1997 at the University of Arizona. It had been discovered in birds in the 1950s, but it took some
time for scientists to figure out that monarchs used the same methods. She discovered this using
lab-raised monarchs on an artificial day-night light schedule, then released them and recorded
their flight schedule. One may ask, what would monarchs do if the sun isn't visible due to clouds
or fog? Monarchs are also able to detect polarized light, and they are able to use that to calculate
the sun's position in the sky. Polarized light bands radiate from the sun, so when the sun is at the
horizon, the light bands are perpendicular, and as it rises, the angle of those bands changes. The
monarchs then use those bands to find their way. Furthermore, this was discovered through
flight simulation lab work. (Heinse, S., Reppert, S. M., 2011)
In the western migration, monarchs eventually reach what are called overwintering sites,
where they remain most of the winter and lay their eggs (U.S. Forest Service 2019). These
overwintering sites, Pacific Grove being one of the most prominent, are peppered throughout the
central and southern California coast. However, monarch numbers in recent decades have
dropped to alarming numbers. This is due to a slough of potential factors; loss of overwintering
habitat, parasites, herbicide usage, and climate change are the most significant. Many cities that
are known for monarch wintering passage, Pismo Beach, Goleta, and Dana Point, to name a few,
have established sanctuaries as means to habitat protection and social awareness. Although
sanctuaries provide a constant dwelling for the monarchs, surrounding environments are equally
important when hosting their migration, and urban sprawl in recent years is continually
encroaching on those valuable locations.

Methods
Before we began our research, our group attended a butterfly talk hosted by the Pacific
Grove Museum of Natural History, where monarch butterfly specialist, Jessica Griffiths, spoke
about the upcoming annual Western Monarch Thanksgiving Count where citizen scientists count
populations of monarch butterflies in overwintering sites. Griffiths also spoke on the biological
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aspects and capabilities of monarch migration, the science behind monarch butterfly research,
and the anthropogenic impacts on monarch butterfly populations. This talk provided baseline
information and guidance for our research.
This study is primarily literature analysis of scientific and historical data. Research topics
include basic biological aspects of monarch butterflies and their migration, urban sprawl, the
history of monarch butterflies in the city of Pacific Grove, and the effects of human population
growth on monarch butterfly populations. Other research methods include the analysis of results
obtained by reviewing scientific and historical data, along with information collected from the
Sustainable City Year Project conducted by the Capstone class of Environmental Studies
students at the California State University, Monterey Bay (CSUMB).
When conducting our literature analysis, we used the California State University,
Monterey Bay library database and google scholar to find peer reviewed and credible sources of
information. We also used Pacific Grove’s tourism, city, and Museum of Natural History
websites to collect verified historical data. The information we found through our analysis, as
well as connections to city council members through the Sustainable City Year Project at
CSUMB has helped us gather credible city information
We found monarch population data of overwintering sites across California from the
Wester Monarch Thanksgiving Count spreadsheet. We used this in our data analysis to find
relationships among the information we had gathered. The Western Monarch Thanksgiving
Count spreadsheet has data organized by city, beginning in 1997 to the most recent count of
2019. For each city, there are population counts for each of the overwintering sites within its
bounds. We chose to focus on population counts in 1997 and 2017 of the following ten cities:
Santa Cruz, Pacific Grove, Pismo, Goleta, Santa Barbara, Malibu, Huntington Beach, Dana
Point, Carlsbad, and San Diego. We specifically chose to focus on the years 1997 and 2017 for
our data analysis because the population counts from the year 2019 drastically lower than
previous years. Due to these low counts, we were unable to create significant graphs or find
relationships in the data. To find the total population of the key cities we had chosen, we added
all of the population counts from the overwintering sites within each of the city’s bounds.
Quantitative research was primarily used in the collection of city data for the Sustainable
City Year Project. The Sustainable City Year Project was conducted by the Environmental
Studies Capstone students from CSUMB. To do this, students from the capstone class
researched the census, environmental, economic, and county data of an array of cities across
California and compiled a spreadsheet. For this particular study we are pulling information from
the “number of parks”, “ percent tree cover”, and census population data for eight cities within
the monarch migration paths that we have chosen. We also found acres of tree coverage
separately from the Sustainable City Year project. To do this, we used the Urban Tree Canopy in
California ArcGIS web map. For each of the key cities, there are multiple urban area boundaries.
For this reason, we had to go through each urban area boundary, verify it was a part of one of the
key cities, and find the total acreage by adding each of the urban area boundaries for said city.
We will be comparing the following information from the key cities we have chosen:
1997 and 2017 monarch populations, 2019 monarch population and 2019 human population,
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number of parks and percent tree cover, and lastly, acres of tree cover and 2017 monarch
population data. To find these relationships, we gathered all the data into a google sheet and
began creating a variety of graphs using pivot
tables. We chose to filter the categories by
condition to ensure there were no blanks or zeros
included in the graphs.
Although we, as researchers were unable
to participate in the annual Thanksgiving
Monarch butterfly count, it is important to note
how monarch butterfly populations are counted at
overwintering sites as well as the process of
tracking monarch butterflies. Scientists only track
monarch butterflies they can easily catch without
harming. To track monarch butterflies scientists
first record the tag code and all other tracking
information needed. Then, scientists gently hold
the butterflies carefully between the index finger
and thumb close to the body. Scientists then
locate the discal cell, which is the large mitten-
shaped cell on the hind wings, and place the tag
over this cell and press gently with the thumb and
forefinger of the opposite hand for two seconds to
secure adhesive (Figure 2). The tags are stickers
made with strong, yet gentle adhesive to keep
from injuring the butterfly. Once this is done, the
butterfly is released. People that come in contact with a tagged butterfly can then take a picture
of the butterfly with its tag and go to the database that is written on the tag itself and input the tag
code which is then used by scientists to create maps of migratory paths. This is an example of a
large-scale citizen science project (Monarch Butterfly Watch).
When counting monarch populations at overwintering sites, it is important to note that
this is actually an estimate and not a precise number. First, scientists and volunteer overwintering
counters must assess their site and take note of how the monarch butterflies are scattered
throughout. If it is less dense, participants can count each butterfly individually. If the site has a
higher density of monarch butterflies, participants take part in the standard practice of counting a
small cluster and then counting how many similar clusters there are within their site. Participants
are encouraged to count on days that are cool with overcast weather to ensure the most accurate
count, as butterflies are less likely to move in these types of conditions. Lastly, it is encouraged
for participants to be counting with a partner to compare techniques and numbers for accurate
estimates (Xerces Society).
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Analysis
When interpreting the data our group wanted to focus on butterfly coastal cities, butterfly
population, human population, number of parks, and tree cover in the cities to see if there was
any kind of relationship between them. The following figures represent the data we found and
how we analyzed it to come to a conclusion.

Figure 3. Displays the difference in population counts in 1997 and 2017 of monarch butterflies
throughout different coastal communities of California.
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Figure 4. Displays the negative relationship between human population and monarch butterfly population
along the coast of California.

Figure 5. Displays the positive correlation between number of parks and average percentage of tree cover

Figure 6. Displays the relationship between acres of tree cover in each city and how many monarchs
were counted in that city
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Not all of the data is necessarily what we were expecting, as a group we inferred that
there would be a direct relationship between tree cover, number of parks, and monarch
population, but some areas had dense tree cover, and almost no monarch population. What we
could infer from this data is that most of the cities that had higher monarch populations were
located in more Northern areas. There is also a negative correlation between the human
population in each city and the monarch population. In the future it would be interesting to look
into other factors such as location, native plant species, and whether or not the city has a
butterfly sanctuary.

Further Research
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In order for the general public to do their part in protecting and increasing the monarch
population, one must first be educated with monarch awareness within their community. We
recommend different ways in which cities and their communities within California can get
involved in monarch conservation First, the general public or city’s landscaping management
team can plant milkweed and flowers native to the area that are supplied with nectar to be a
source of food and nutrients during the monarch migration journey. These plants can be found in
some local nurseries; before purchasing one must be sure that they are not sprayed with systemic
insecticides (Xerces Society, 2019). Monarch butterfly habitats should consist of plants with
large enough petals to be a source of shelter and protection against difficult weather conditions,
along with nectar plants to provide the nutrition needed for the migrating monarchs. Nectar
plants will not only be supporting monarchs but also other butterflies and pollinators. Adult
monarchs are dependent on their nectar resource because the energy boost it provides is
important for when they breed for relocation and overwintering. The nectar they consume builds
up reserved fats that will help not only during their long flight but will also benefit them through
the winter. Unlike adult monarchs, larvae only eat milkweeds as it is important in their growth
process. Planting milkweed that is native to your region increases the chance that it will grow
well and be an effective resource as it is the host plant for the monarch. An underdeveloped
milkweed can also be dangerous for the monarchs because it won’t be the safest place of shelter
for them during unfavorable meteorological conditions and predators. It is important to consider
that milkweed should not be planted in non-native communities, at extremely high elevations, or
within 5-10 miles of the Pacific Coast as it can confuse the monarch, making it change its natural
behavior and making them feel the need to mate and lay their eggs (Marty & Zakowski, 2019).
Both milkweed and nectar plants should be planted in open sunny areas that are clear from
mowing, chemical pesticide applications, and field disking. Figure 6 shows a table listing
common Milkweed species found in California along with the month it flowers, if it is available
for sale in the form of seeds or plants, and the plant’s habitat condition.
The implementation of monarch sanctuaries along the butterfly migration route can be
beneficial for them during the course of their journey. Sanctuaries along the trail can accustom
the butterflies to stop when in need of food or shelter. Although this action would have to be
approved through the selected city, our research finds it to be an effective resource for not only
the monarchs but also for the city’s community. Just like The Pacific Grove Museum of Natural
History in our partner city, this action can help enhance monarch conservation and educate the
public on the species's biology, habitat needs, migration and overwintering. This can motivate
people to become citizen scientists or volunteer in butterfly conservation and research programs.
A citizen scientist is defined as an individual who collects scientific data but is not a professional
scientist (U.S. Forest Service [USDA] & U.S. Forest Service, 2020). This can be done by
participating in annual butterfly counts such as the statewide Western Monarch Thanksgiving
Count that is coordinated by the Xerces Society or butterfly monitoring program managed by the
North American Butterfly Association.
Lastly, incorporating the Mayor’s Monarch Pledge onto your city can be an asset for the
monarch population. This pledge was launched in 2015 to attract cities and their communities on
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monarch restoration. Approximately 600 mayors and leaders of tribal governments pledge in
bringing about a safe and healthy natural environment for the monarch and other pollinators
across North America (The National Wildlife Federation, 2020). The pledge states that cities and
towns can incorporate community gardens and provide shelter in public parks. Schools, homes,
and businesses around the city can not only educate individuals on this awareness, but can also
make an alteration in landscape by adding native nectar plants or milkweed (The National
Wildlife Federation, 2020). With the Mayor’s Monarch Pledge, these leaders hope that with the
support of their community, they can make an impact in restoring the habitat for monarchs while
encouraging other citizens to follow along. Out of the ten cities we focused on in this research
project, only 3 have active pledges. These cities include Pacific Grove, Malibu, and San Diego.

Conclusion
The scope of our research and data was limited to what we could find online. This elicits
a few limitations. Some city data provided might not be accurate because students retrieved it
from the wrong place, or information was missing. As a group, we only looked at 10 cities for
our analysis. There could be cities with a monarch butterfly presence that we did not include
because they did not have an established butterfly sanctuary.
Regarding the Thanksgiving Count data, we did not collect the retrieved ourselves, nor
did we have access to this year’s data. Therefore we could not account for monarch populations
for 2020. Additionally, our graphs exhibit data from 2017 instead of 2019. Thus, results are
dated by two years. Monarch butterflies play a vital role in the health of our planet as they are an
important pollinator and food source for some small animals and insects. Let us do our part by
improving and restoring habitats to save their population.
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