SMARTLY

INFERENTIAL STATISTICS: MAKING DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS

HYPOTHESIS TESTING

Setting Up The Hypotheses

Hypothesis testing: A branch of inferential statistics that allows us

to use samples to make conclusions about a population based on
a set of statistical hypotheses.
Statistical hypothesis: A testable assumption about a population
parameter. The first step in hypothesis testing is to set the
following two hypotheses: The null hypothesis typically
Null hypothesis: A safe or commonly held assumption, written contains an equals sign.
H₀. If there is sufficient evidence that H₀ is false, the researcher H₀: µ = ? or p = ?
can reject H₀. If there is insufficient evidence that H₀ is false, the
researcher will fail to reject H₀.
The alternative hypothesis
Alternative hypothesis: A proposal that’s outside of what is safe typically contains ≠, > or <.
or expected, written Ha . The alternative hypothesis states that Ha : µ ≠ ?, µ < ?, or µ > ?
the population parameter is somehow different from a given Ha : p ≠ ?, p < ? or p > ?
value.

Setting The Criteria For A Decision

After setting the hypotheses, a researcher specifies ! (alpha), the

significance level—the probability that a sample’s average leads
one to reject the null hypothesis when, in reality, it’s true.
Assumption of Normality: In a hypothesis test, we assume that
the sampling distribution is normal and centered around the true Two-tailed
population parameter. This is usually a sound assumption with a
large and sufficiently random sample.
Rejection region: The tail(s) of a sampling distribution, the area
under which corresponds with the significance level !. If a result
falls in a rejection region, we have sufficient evidence to reject H₀.
The boundary (or boundaries) of the rejection region(s) on the
standard normal distribution is known as the critical value. When
the Assumption of Normality is met, this can be found on a Z-table. One-tailed
Two-tailed test: A test with rejection regions on both sides of the Rejection
sampling distribution, typically characterized by a ≠ sign in the region
alternative hypothesis.
One-tailed test: A test with a rejection region on only one side of
the sampling distribution, typically characterized by a < or > sign in
the alternative hypothesis.
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INFERENTIAL STATISTICS: MAKING DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS SMARTLY

Test Statistics and p-Values

A test statistic converts a sample statistic into a location on a well-

known distribution to help researchers interpret a sample’s results.
z-statistic: Used when the sampling distribution can be modeled
with the standard normal distribution (which is possible when the
Assumption of Normality is met).
z-statistic for means z-statistic for proportions
p – p₀
x–µ z=
z=
! √ p₀ (1−p₀)
n
x = sample mean p = sample proportion
µ = population mean from H₀ p₀ = population proportion from H₀
! = population standard deviation n = sample size
n = sample size

If the test statistic falls in the rejection region (meaning it’s more
extreme in either direction than the critical value), the researcher
can reject H₀.
p-value: Gives the exact probability of achieving a result that’s just
as extreme or more extreme than the result if H₀ is true. p-values
help quantify the strength of a rejection of the null hypothesis.

Interpreting and Reporting Results

When reporting hypothesis test results, a researcher should How do you choose between
include the experimental design, hypotheses, sample size, performing a hypothesis test or
significance level, p-value and any other relevant information. building a confidence interval?

Hypothesis tests are good for

Small effect size is when a result is statistically significant but too comparing values and give
small to be of any practical significance. It can influence the information about the strength of
context of a reported result. a rejection of H₀ in the form of a
p-value.
There are three common mistakes that must be avoided when Confidence intervals give a
reporting test results: range of plausible values for μ.
They tell you if you can reject H₀,
Cherry picking: A researcher uses only data that support their but not how strong that rejection
is.
desired conclusion.
p-hacking: A researcher manipulates data collection or analysis
until non-significant results become significant.
Significance chasing: A researcher reports insignificant results
as if they’re “almost” significant.

©2016 Pedago, LLC. All rights reserved.