Water Demand for

Water Supply
Water demand
◼ Accurate determination and prognosis of
water demand is a crucial element in any
serious consideration about water
transport and distribution systems.
◼ Water production is the flow of water produced
in treatment facilities.

◼ Water delivery is the flow to be supplied.

◼ Water consumption is the flow directly utilized by

the users.

◼ Water leakage is the amount of water physically

lost from the system.
◼ In theory, water demand means water
consumption.

◼ In practice however, the demand is often

registered at the production facilities, where flow
measurements include leakage.

◼ In order to avoid false conclusions, a distinction

should be made between the measurements at
supply points (deliver), and those being done at
users premises (consumption).
◼ The mean value derived from anounl
demand records represent the average
demand of the system.

◼ When divided by the number of

consumers, it is called specific demand
(unit consumption per capita)
Factors influencing water
demand:
◼ For which purpose the water is used?
◼ Who is the user of water?
◼ How precious the water is?
Consumption categories
◼ Domestic demand
 Domestic water consumption is intended for
toilet flushing, bathing & showering, laundry,
dishwashing and other less water demanding
purposes: cooking, drinking, gardening, car
washing, etc.

◼ Non-Domestic demand
 Non-domestic demand appears in industry,
agriculture, institutions and offices, tourism,
etc.
Water demand patterns
◼ Instantaneous demand is the demand of
small number of consumers which
appears during a short period of time: a
few seconds or minutes.

◼ Daily demand diagram is a result of

instantaneous demand pattern for 24-hour
period for sufficiently large group of
consumers.
◼ Periodic variations
 Weekly pattern is influenced by the average
consumptions on working and non-working
days.
 Seasonal variations in water use normally
depend on the ambient temperature.
Water demand calculations
Qwc,avg  pfo
Qd =
 1 
1 − 100   f c

Qd Water demand of certain area at certain moment

Qw,avg Average water consumption in the area
pfo Overall peak factor. This is a combination of the peak factor
values from the daily, weekly and yearly diagrams. pfo=pfh*pfd*pfm
l leakage expressed as a percentage of the water production
fc unit conversion factor.
pfo values
◼ pfh = 1, pfd = 1, pfm = 1: Qd represents the
average demand conditions, irrespectable of the
observed period: day, week or year
◼ pfh = 1, pfd = max, pfm = max: Qd represents the
average demand conditions, during the
maximum consumption day (in one year)
◼ pfh = max, pfd = max, pfm = max: Qd is the
demand at the maximum consumption day
◼ pfh = min, pfd = min, pfm = min: Qd is the
demand at the minimum consumption day
◼ Water demand is commonly classified according
to the nature of the user
 Domestic
 Commercial and Industrial
 PublicUse
 Loss and Waste
◼ Domestic
 Water furnished to houses, hotels, for
sanitary, culinary and other purposes
 Use varies with economic level of the
consumers ranging from 75 to 380 liters per
capita per day
◼ Commercial and Industrial
 Water furnished to establishments such as
factories, offices, and stores
 Quantity of water required is related to factors
such as units produced, number of persons
employed, or floor area.
◼ Public use
 Water furnished to public buildings and used
for public services including city buildings,
schools, flushing streets, fire protection
 Water used amounts to 50 to 75 liters per
capita per day.
◼ Loss and waste
 Water which is “unaccounted for”
◼ Attributed to errors in meter reading, unauthorized
connections, and leaks in the distribution system.
◼ Consumption of water for various
purposes (in 2000)
Use Liters per capita/day Percentage of total
Domestic 300 44
Industrial 160 24
Commercial 100 15
Public 60 9
Loss and waste 50 8
Total 670 100
Factors affecting water use
◼ Size of the city
 has an indirect effect in that small
communities tend to have more limited uses
for water
 the presence of an important water-using
industry may result in high per capita use
Factors affecting water use
◼ Industry and commerce
 Industries frequently use auxiliary water
supplies for some purposes which reduces
their consumption of the municipal supply
 Commercial consumption is largely
dependent on the number of people employed
in business districts
Factors affecting water use
◼ Characteristics of the population
 High value-districts per capita use is high as
much as 380 L
 Slum district rates per capita use range from
50 to 100L
Factors affecting water use
◼ Metering
 Reduced consumption substantially by as
much as 50 percent
 Permits analysis of use patterns of different
classes of users providing data useful in
planning expansion of facilities and in
assessing the magnitude of loss due to leaks
in the distribution system
Factors affecting water use
◼ Miscellaneous factors including climate,
quality, pressure, system maintenance
and conservation programs
 During hot and dry and cold weather conditions,
consumption will increase
 Improvement in the quality of a public supply will likely
to result in increased consumption
 Reducing water pressure can reduce per capita by up
to 6 percent
Factors affecting water use
A well-designed program of maintenance
(e.g., leak survey) will reduce loss and waste
in the system
 Conservation programs may be short-term or
permanent (e.g. flow-restricting devices may
be installed)
Variations in water use
◼ The Goodrich formula is sometimes used
for estimating consumption
𝑝 = 180𝑡 −0.10

where p is the percentage of the annual

average rate which occurs during short
periods and t is the length of period in days
from 1/12 to 360.
Variations in water use
◼ Estimating maximum rates
 maximum daily consumption is likely to be 180 per
cent of the annual average daily consumption and
may reach 200 percent
 weekly maximum is 148 percent of the annual
average
 monthly maximum is 128 percent of the annual
average
 maximum hourly rate is 150 percent of average for
that day
◼ Typical minima rates range from 25 to 50
percent of the daily average
Population
forecasting
Forecasting Population
◼ In the design of any waterworks project, it
is necessary to estimate the amount of
water that is required
◼ This involves determining the number of
people who will be served and their per
capita water consumption, together with
the analysis of the factors that may
operate to affect consumption
Forecasting Population
◼ Prior to the design of a waterworks, one must
establish the length of time the improvement will
serve the community before it is abandoned or
enlarged.
◼ For example, an impounding reservoir may be
constructed of such capacity that it will furnish a
sufficient amount of water for 30 years, or the
capacity of a water purification plant that may be
adequate for 10 years (design period).
Relation of Quantity of Water
and Population
◼ Water consumption is influenced by the following
factors
 Climate
 Economic level
 Population density
 Degree of industrialization
 Cost
 Pressure
 Quality of the supply
◼ Analysis of the future demand begins by
considering the present use
◼ Consumption is classified according to;
 Classes of users (domestic, commercial,
industrial, public, etc)
 Area of the city
 Economic level of the users
 Season of the year
◼ On per capita consumption, applying the
procedure of dividing total use by the total
population should be applied with care, since
 Entirepopulation may not be served by the municipal
system
 There may be large industrial users which will not
change with population
 Characteristics and size of the population may be
changing
Population estimation
◼ Since population is always a relevant
factor in estimating future use, it is
necessary to predict what the future
population will be
◼ Arithmetic method
 The assumption is that the rate of growth is
constant
𝑑𝑃
=𝐾
𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑃
where is the rate of change of population and
𝑑𝑡
K is a constant
 The population in the future is estimated as;
𝑃𝑡 = 𝑃𝑜 + 𝐾𝑡

where 𝑃𝑡 is the population at some time in the

future, 𝑃𝑜 is the present population and t is the
period of the projection
◼ Geometric or Uniform Percentage Method
 The hypothesis of geometric or uniform
percentage growth assumes a rate of
increase which is proportional to population

𝑑𝑃
= 𝐾′𝑃
𝑑𝑡
◼ Geometric or Uniform Percentage Method
 Thus, the population at some time is
estimated as;
𝑙𝑛𝑃 = 𝑙𝑛𝑃𝑜 + 𝐾 ′ ∆𝑡

ln(𝑃2 ) − ln(𝑃1 )
𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝐾′ =
𝑡2 − 𝑡1
◼ Curvilinear Method
 This technique involves the graphical projection of the
past population growth curve, continuing whatever
trends the historical data indicate
 Includes comparison of the projected growth to the
recorded growth of other cities of larger size
 Geographical proximity, likeness of economic base,
access to similar transportation systems, and other
factors should be considered for comparison
Fig. Curvilinear method of projecting population growth
◼ Logistic Method
 The logistic curve used in modeling
population growth has an S shape –
combining a geometric rate of growth at low
population with a declining growth rate as the
city approaches some limiting population.
 In
the short term, a logistic projection can be
based on
𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡
𝑃=
1 + 𝑒 𝑎+𝑏∆𝑡

where 𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 is the saturation population of the

community and 𝑎 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑏 may be determined
from three successive census population
 2
2𝑃𝑜 𝑃1 𝑃2 − 𝑃1 (𝑃𝑜 + 𝑃2 )
𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 = 2
𝑃𝑜 𝑃2 − 𝑃1

𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃2
𝑎 = 𝑙𝑛
𝑃2
1 𝑃𝑜 (𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃1 )
𝑏 = 𝑙𝑛
𝑛 𝑃1 (𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃𝑜 )
where n is the time interval between succeeding censuses
◼ Declining Growth Method
 Assumes that the city has some limiting
saturation population, and that its rate of
growth is a function of its population deficit;
𝑑𝑃
= 𝐾"(𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃)
𝑑𝑡
1 𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃1
𝐾" = 𝑙𝑛
𝑛 𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃𝑜
where 𝑃 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃𝑜 re populations recorded in n
years apart

Future population can be estimated as;

𝑃 = 𝑃𝑜 + (𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃𝑜 )(1 − 𝑒 𝐾"∆𝑡 )

◼ Ratio Method
 Relies on the population projections made by
professional demographers
 Based on the assumption that the ratio of the
population of the city being studied to that of
the larger group will continue to change in the
future in the same manner that has occurred
in the past
 The ratio is calculated for a series of
censuses, the trend line is projected into the
future, and the projected ratio is multiplied by
the forecast regional population to obtain the
city’s population in the year of interest
◼ Use of good judgement in population
estimation is important
 Ifthe estimate is too low, the system will be
inadequate and redesign, reconstruction and
refinancing will be necessary
 Overestimation will result in excess capacity
which must be financed by a smaller
population at a higher unit cost
◼ Selection of an appropriate technique requires
testing all methods against recorded growth and
eliminate those which are not applicable
◼ Growth of a community
 with limited land area for future expansion may be
modeled by the declining growth or logistic technique
 with large resources of land, power, and water and
good transportation may be predicted by the
geometric or uniform percentage growth
Problem
1. A community’s population is estimated to be
35,000 20 years from now. The present population
is 28,000 and the present average water
consumption is 16,000 m3/day. The existing water
treatment plant has a design capacity of 19,000
m3/day. Assuming an arithmetic rate of population
growth, determine in what year the plant will reach
design capacity.
Problem
2. A city with a present population of 58,000
persons used a total of 9,526,500 m3 of
water during the last 12 months. On the
maximum day during that period 42,000,000
L were used. Estimate the average daily and
maximum daily flows to be expected in 10
years when the population is estimated to be
72,500.
Practice Problem
Exercises
Problem:
1. Given the population data as follows;
Population in 2000 = 76.5million
2010 = 92.3milliom

▪ Estimate the population in 2020, 2030, 2040

using the arithmetic and geometric methods
 Problem
2. Estimate the population, per capita water
use, and total average daily water demand
in the year 2040.
Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Population 8000 8990 11300 14600 18400
Average daily demand, m3 2270 2720 3630 4970 6600
3. For the community in Prob 2, estimate the
maximum daily rate, maximum hourly rate,
and minimum hourly rate of water in the year
2040. What volume of water would be used
in the maximum week? In the maximum
month?
Water Demand for
FIRE
◼
Fire demand
◼ Coefficient C

For wood construction, C = 1.5

For ordinary construction, C = 1.0
For noncombustible construction, C = 0.8
For fire-resistive construction, C = 0.6
Fire demand
◼ Fire flow

Fire flow based on the formula should not exceed

8000 gal/min nor 6000 gal/min for one-story
construction
Minimum fire flow should not be less than 500
gal/min.
Additional flow maybe required to protect nearby
buildings.
The total for all purposes for a single fire is not to
exceed 12000 gal/min nor less than 500 gal/min
Residential fire flows
Distance between Required fire flow
adjacent units (ft) (gal/min)
>100 500
31 – 100 750 - 1000
11 – 30 1000 - 1500
≤ 10 1500 - 2000
Fire flow duration
Required fire flow Duration
(gal/min)
< 1000 4
1000 – 1250 5
1250 – 1500 6
1500 – 1750 7
1750 – 2000 8
2000 – 2250 9
> 2250 10
Problem
◼ If it is assumed that a community with a
population of 22,000 has an average
consumption of 600L per capita per day
and a fire flow dictated by a building of
ordinary construction with a floor area of
1000m2 and a height of six levels,
determine the maximum demand during a
fire.
Problem
◼ Determine the fire flow required for a 3-storey
building with a plan area of 700m2 and wood
frame construction. If the building dictates the
fire flow for the community with population of
38,000 with an average daily demand of
16,014m3, what is the maximum daily
demand plus fire flow? What percentage of
the average demand does the fire flow
constitute?
Problem
◼ Determine the fire flow for an area which
consists of single family residences from
1.5 to 3m apart. For how long must this
flow be provided? What total volume must
be available for fire protection?
Water Demand for
FIRE
◼
Fire demand
◼ Coefficient C

For wood construction, C = 1.5

For ordinary construction, C = 1.0
For noncombustible construction, C = 0.8
For fire-resistive construction, C = 0.6
Fire demand
◼ Fire flow

Fire flow based on the formula should not exceed

8000 gal/min nor 6000 gal/min for one-story
construction
Minimum fire flow should not be less than 500
gal/min.
Additional flow maybe required to protect nearby
buildings.
The total for all purposes for a single fire is not to
exceed 12000 gal/min nor less than 500 gal/min
Residential fire flows
Distance between Required fire flow
adjacent units (ft) (gal/min)
>100 500
31 – 100 750 - 1000
11 – 30 1000 - 1500
≤ 10 1500 - 2000
Fire flow duration
Required fire flow Duration
(gal/min)
< 1000 4
1000 – 1250 5
1250 – 1500 6
1500 – 1750 7
1750 – 2000 8
2000 – 2250 9
> 2250 10
Problem
◼ If it is assumed that a community with a
population of 22,000 has an average
consumption of 600L per capita per day
and a fire flow dictated by a building of
ordinary construction with a floor area of
1000m2 and a height of six levels,
determine the maximum demand during a
fire.
Problem
◼ Determine the fire flow required for a 3-storey
building with a plan area of 700m2 and wood
frame construction. If the building dictates the
fire flow for the community with population of
38,000 with an average daily demand of
16,014m3, what is the maximum daily
demand plus fire flow? What percentage of
the average demand does the fire flow
constitute?
Problem
◼ Determine the fire flow for an area which
consists of single family residences from
1.5 to 3m apart. For how long must this
flow be provided? What total volume must
be available for fire protection?
Water Demand for
IRRIGATION
Irrigation water needs
◼ In summary:
 If sufficient rainfall : IN = 0
 If no rainfall at all : IN = ET crop
 If partly irrigation, partly rainfall: IN = ET crop
– Pe

where IN represents irrigation water need, ET

crop (crop water need), Pe (effective rainfall)
Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo)

◼ Experimental, using an evaporation pan

ETo = Kpan x E pan

◼ Theoretical, using measured climatic data,

by Blaney-Criddle method
ETo = p(0.46Tmean + 8)
where p is the mean daily percentage of
annual daytime hours.
Crop evapotranspiration or crop water
need

ET crop = ETo x Kc

where
ETcrop = crop evapotranspiration or crop
water need (mm/day)
Kc = crop factor
ETo = reference evapotranspiration
Effective rainfall
Effective rainfall
◼ effective rainfall is the total rainfall minus runoff
minus evaporation and minus deep percolation
◼ only the water retained in the root zone can be
used by the plants, and represents what is called
the effective part of the rainwater
◼ effective rainfall is used to define this fraction of
the total amount of rainwater useful for meeting
the water need of the crops.
Effective rainfall (Pe)

Pe = 0.8P − 25
if P > 75mm/month
Pe = 0.6P − 10
if P < 75mm/month

Note: applicable to with a maximum slope of

4-5%
Example
◼ Calculate the effective rainfall for the
following monthly rainfall figures: P = 35,
90,116, 5, 260, 75 mm
P (mm/month) Formula Pe (mm/month)
35 Pe = 0.6P -10 11
90 Pe = 0.8P - 25 47
116 Pe = 0.8P - 25 68
5 Pe = 0.6P -10 0
260 Pe = 0.8P - 25 183
75 Pe = 0.8P - 25 35
Or Pe = 0.6P -10
Irrigation water need
◼ For all field crops, the irrigation water need
(IN) is determined as follows;
 Step 1: Determine the reference crop
evapotranspiration: ETo
 Step 2: Determine the crop factors: Kc
 Step 3: Calculate the crop water need:
ETcrop = ETo x Kc
 Step 4: Determine the effective rainfall: Pe
 Step 5: Calculate the irrigation water need: IN
= ETcrop - Pe
Example
◼ Determine the irrigation water need of the
crop based on the following data;

Month Feb Mar Apr May June

ETcrop 69 123 180 234 180

P 20 38 40 80 16
Month Feb Mar Apr May June
ET crop 69 123 180 234 180
(mm/month)
Pe 2 13 14 39 0
(mm/month)
IN 67 110 166 195 180
(mm/month)
IN 2.2 3.7 5.5 6.5 6.0
(mm/day)
Irrigation water need of rice
◼ Paddy rice, growing in water-logged
condition, in addition to ETcrop also
requires water for:
 Saturation of the soil before planting
 Percolation and seepage losses
 Establishment of a water layer
Irrigation water need of rice
◼ Step 1: Determine the reference crop evapotranspiration:
Eto

◼ Step 2: Determine the crop factors: Kc

◼ Step 3: Calculate the crop water need: ETcrop = ETo x

Kc

◼ Step 4: Determine the amount of water needed to

saturate the soil for land preparation by puddling: SAT
 In the month before sowing or transplanting, water is needed to
saturate the root zone. The amount of water needed depends on
the soil type and rooting depth, it is however assumed that the
amount of water needed to saturate the root zone is 200 mm.
Irrigation water need of rice
◼ Step 5: Determine the amount of percolation and
seepage losses: PERC
 The percolation and seepage losses depend on the type of soil.
They will be low in very heavy, well-puddled clay soils and high
in the case of sandy soils. The percolation and seepage losses
vary between 4 and 8 mm/day.

◼ Step 6: Determine the amount of water needed to

establish a water layer: WL
 A water layer is established during transplanting or sowing and
maintained throughout the growing season. The amount of water
needed for maintaining the water layer has already been taken
into account with the determination of the percolation and
seepage losses. The amount of water needed to establish the
water layer, however, still has to be considered, thus, it is
assumed that a water layer of 100 mm is established.
Irrigation water need of rice
◼ Step 7: Determine the effective rainfall: Pe

◼ Step 8: Calculate the irrigation water need: IN = ETcrop

+ SAT + PERC + WL – Pe
Example
◼ Calculate the irrigation water need (IN) of
paddy rice for the month of April when
given:
 ETo = 6 mm/day
 Kc = 1.1
 the root zone has already been saturated in the previous month
 PERC = 5 mm/day
 the water layer (100 mm) needs to be established during April
 Pe = 135 mm/month
◼ IN = ET crop + SAT + PERC + WL - Pe
◼ ET crop = ETo × Kc = 6 × 1.1 = 6.6 mm/day = 6.6 × 30 =
198 mm/month
◼ SAT = 0 mm
◼ PERC = 5 mm/day = 5 × 30 = 150 mm/month
◼ WL = 100 mm
◼ Pe = 135 mm/month
◼ IN = 198 + 0 + 150 + 100 - 135 = 313 mm/month = 10.4
mm/day
◼ Thus the irrigation water need during April is 313 mm or
10.4 mm/day.
Problem:
Determine the reference crop evapotranspiration, crop
water need and irrigation water need based on the
following data.
◼ General data:
Latitude: 80 North
◼ Crop data:
Crop Planting date Total growing season
(days)
1. Potatoes 1 Oct 120
2. Cotton 1 July 190
◼ Climatic data:
Relative humidity (year-round) : medium
Windspeed (year-round) : medium
Crop details:
Crop 1: Potatoes Crop 2: Cotton
Initial stage: 25 days 30 days
Crop dev stage: 35 days 50 days
Mid season : 35 days 60 days
Late season: 25 days 50 days
Crop factor:
Initial stage: 0.45 0.45
Crop dev stage: 0.75 0.75
Mid season : 1.15 1.15
Late season: 0.85 0.75
 J F M A M J J A S O N D

T min (oC) 14.4 15.5 17.4 18.5 18.9 21 20.1 19.3 18.7 15.6 13.8 12.3

T max(oC) 29.9 31.1 32.1 33.9 34.5 35.2 32.2 31.5 32.9 32.6 29.9 29.5

P (mm) 19 21 28 33 37 38 121 134 44 28 19 5

p 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.26 0.26

where
Tmin : minimum temperature
Tmax : maximum temperature
P : precipitation
p : mean daily percentage of annual daytime hours
Links
◼ The Philippines: Breaking grounds in
micro irrigation
 https://youtu.be/OTfunuvmFJ0

◼ Micro Sprinkler Irrigation

 https://youtu.be/rGgLKaPU9ww

◼ Drip Irrigation
 https://youtu.be/flc5ZytlHZI