1.

a. 3/8.​ There are 8!/(3!5!) = 56 total combinations of cards that could be left in stock.
There are 7!/(3!4!) = 35 total combinations of cards that could be left in stock that
do not contain the ten of spades. By rule of complement, that leaves 21 total
combinations of cards that could be left in stock that do contain the ten of
spades.
b. If the ten of spades is still in stock, then you are guaranteed to win every trick. In
addition to the 7 points you already have, the cards in your hand are worth 46
points. The Maestro needs to have at least 13 points in his hands, because if he
has less than that, you will win every trick but still not achieve 66 points, and thus
fail to close stock.
c. 6/7.​ Given that the ten of spades is in stock, there are (7!/5!/2!) = 21 remaining
different combinations of cards that could make up the Maestro’s hand. It is
impossible for any hand containing the ace of clubs to be less than 13, which
narrows our card choices down to 6. A hand with 3 queens and 2 jacks is exactly
enough to be 13. This means that the only combination of ranks possible from
the remaining cards that is less than 13 is 3 jacks and 2 queens. Thus, there are
3!/3! combinations of jacks and 3!/(2!1!) combinations of queens, the product of
which is 3, the total number of hands the Maestro could have that totals up to
less than 13, the complement of which over our sample space size is our answer.
d. If the Maestro holds the ten of spades, you will win the first 4 tricks and lose the
last one. This means that in addition to the 7 points you already have, you will
gain 42 from the aces and tens you currently hold. In those 4 tricks, you have to
gain at least 17 points from the Maestro’s other 4 cards in order to get 66 points.
If you don’t, you fail to close stock.
e. 4/7.​ If the Maestro holds the ten of spades in his hand, then that means you will
lose the last trick, including the points from your king of spades. Thus, the
probability of winning given that the Maestro holds the ten of spades depends on
the probability that the Maestro holds card values of at least 17 points in his other
4 cards. The only 4 card combinations of the remaining ranks that meets or
exceeds 17 points is that of an ace and 3 queens (20 points), ace and 2 queens
and a jack (19 points), ace and 1 queen and 2 jacks (18 points), and ace and 3
jacks (17 points). There are (1!/1! * 3!/3!) = 1, (1!/1! * 3!/(2!1!) * 3!/(1!2!)) = 9,
(1!/1! * 3!/(1!2!) * 3/(2!1!)) = 9, (1!/1! * 3!/3!) = 1 different combination of cards per
rank combination. There are 7!/(4!3!) = 35 total combinations of the 4 other cards
in Maestro’s hand, which is our denominator.
f. 19/28.​ (6/7 * ⅜) + (4/7 * ⅝), as derived from part a, c, and e.
2.
a. P(L​1​) = 11/25, P(L​2​) = 11/25​. There is a ⅗ chance that the chosen pocket is the
left pocket, and a ⅖ chance that the chosen pocket is the right pocket. Given that
the chosen pocket is her left one, there is a ⅗ chance of a lavender ball being
drawn, and given that the chosen pocket is her right one, there is a ⅕ chance of a
lavender ball being drawn. Thus, P(L​1​) = (⅗)(⅗) + (⅖)(⅕). Since the ball is returned,
L​2​ is the same event as L​1​ and isn’t affected by the results of L​1​.
b. 1/2.​ Using the corollary of Bayes theorem, P(Left | L​1​) is ¾ and P(Right |L​2​) is ¼.
Thus, given L​1​, L​2​= (¾)(⅗) + (¼)(⅕).
c. ​L​1​ and L​2​ are not independent by definition of independent because P(L​1​)*P(L​2​) =
(11/25)​2​ != P(L​1​ ⋂ L​2​) = (½)(11/25).
d. 27/29.​ Using the corollary derived from Bayes’ theorem, P(D | L​1​ ⋂ L​2​) = (P(L​1​ ⋂ L​2
| D)P(D)) / (P(L​1​ ⋂ L​ 2​ | D)P(D) + P(L​1 ⋂​ L​2​ | D̅)P(D̅)). Substituting all the
probabilities into the equation, this is ((⅗)(⅗)(⅗)) / ((⅗)(⅗)(⅗) + (⅕)(⅕)(⅖)).
3.
a. 2.3 * 10​-4​. Let S be the event you have the disease. Let N be the event that the
test comes back negative. P(N|S) is given as 4%. Using the corollary from Bayes
theorem, P(S|N) is equal to P(N|S)P(S) / (P(N|S)P(S) + P(N|S̅)P(S̅)) = (.04)(.005)
/ ((.04)(.005) + (.88)(.995).
b. 3.9 * 10​-2​. Let S be the event you have the disease. Let P be the event that the
test comes back positive. P(P|S̅) is given as 12%. Using the corollary from Bayes
theorem, P(S|P) is equal to P(P|S)P(S) / (P(P|S)P(S) + P(P|S̅)P(S̅)) = (.96)(.005)
/ ((.96)(.005) + (.12)(.995).
c. 7.9 * 10​-3​. P(S|N) is equal to P(N|S)P(S) / (P(N|S)P(S) + P(N|S̅)P(S̅)) = (.04)(.15) /
((.04)(.15) + (.88)(.85).
d. 5.9 * 10​-1​. P(S|P) is equal to P(P|S)P(S) / (P(P|S)P(S) + P(P|S̅)P(S̅)) = (.96)(.15) /
((.96)(.15) + (.12)(.85).
4. Using the Law of Total Probability and Gambler’s Ruin:
p​0​ = P(p​1​) + (1-P)p​-1
p​1 ​= P(p​2​) + (1-P)p​0
p​-1​ = P(p​0​) + (1-P)p​-2
p​2​ = 1
p​-2​ = 0

p​0​ = P(P(1) + (1-P)p​0​) + (1-P)(P(p​0​) + (1-P)0)

p​0​ = .75(.75(1) + (1-.75)p​0​) + (1-.75)(.75(p​0​) + (1-.75)0)
p​0​ = 9/16 + (3/16)p​0​ + 3/16(p​0​)
p​0​ = 9/16 + 3/8(p​0​)
p​0 =​ 9/10
5.
a. ⅔​. Since Apple’s sister Olive has type O blood and her parents have A blood,
that means their parents’ genes must both be AO in order to have passed that
on. Since Apple has Type A blood, she could have 3 of the 4 possible
combinations of her parents’ genes, 2 of which contain O.
b. ⅓​. Apple and Oscar’s child can only have O blood if Apple has the AO genes.
Apple and Oscar’s child could have 4 possible combinations of Apple and
Oscdar’s genes, 2 of which result in her having O blood. Multiply this by our
answer from part a.
c. ½​. If the child has type A blood, her genes must be AO, because she can only
get an A from her mother, not her father. In this scenario, Apple can either have
AA or AO genes. Using the corollary of Bayes’ theorem, P(Apple AO | Child type
A) = P(Child type A | Apple AO)P(Apple AO) / (P(Child type A | Apple
AO)P(Apple AO) + P(Child type A | Apple AA)P(Apple AA)) = (½)(⅔) / ((½)(⅔) +
(1)(⅓)).
d. ¾​. The probability that Apple and Oscar’s first child will have type A blood is 1 -
⅓, our answer from part. Given that the first child having type A blood, there’s a
½ (from part c) chance Apple has AO blood and a ½ chance (from part c) Apple
has AA blood. Given that Apple has AO blood, the second child has a ½ chance
of being type A. Given that Apple has AA blood, the second child has a 1 chance
of being type A. Thus, the probability of the second child having type A is (½ * ½)
+ (½ * 1).
e. No. For example, P(A​1​ ⋂ A​2​) =(⅔ * ½) != P(A​1​)P(A​2​) = (⅔ * ⅔). Knowing A​1
changes the probability of A​2​.
6.
a. .311​. (.258)​2​ * (1-.258)​6​ * (8!/(6!2!)). Probability of 2 deals with no trump x
probability of 6 deals with at least one trump x number of combinations of deals.
b. .653​. The probability of having no trump in one deal is (1-.258)​7​ * .258 *
(8!/(7!1!)). The probability of having at least one trump in every deal is (1-.258)​8
The probability of having a trump in every deal is (1-.258)​8​. 1 - these probabilities
is our answer, by method of complements.
7.
a. .745875​. If we pretend that the entire circuit works, connection would fail when 5
isn’t working, or when paths 1 and 2, 3 and 4, 1 and 3, and 2 and 4 fail when 5 is
working. Thus, we calculate that as ​(1-P5) + (P5)((1-P1)(1-P2) + (1-P3)(1-P4) +
(1-P1)(1-P3) + (1-P2)(1-P4))​. The complement of that represents all the
probability of connection between A and B.
b. .95475​. Given that P3 fails, similar to part a, either 1 and 2, 4 and 5, 1 and 5, and
s and 4 must fail for there to be no connection. Given that P3 works, then P4 and
P5, and P1 and P2 must fail for there to be no connection. Thus our formula is
(1-P3)((1-P4)(1-P5) + (1-P1)(1-P5) + (1-P1)(1-P2) + (1-P4)(1-P5)) +
P3((1-P4)(1-P5) + (1-P1)(1-P2))​. The complement of this represents the
probability of connection between A and B.