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Market Bites: NOV Week 2

Global stock market value rises to a record $95 trillion

• It may be quite a while before an effective coronavirus vaccine is globally distributed, but forward-looking
global equity markets are already partying like it’s here.

• The total value of stock markets around the world reached an all-time high of $95 trillion through Wednesday,
bouncing all the way back from its March bottom in the depth of the coronavirus pandemic.

• Stocks’ latest run to new highs was triggered by news that Pfizer and BioNTech’s coronavirus vaccine was
more than 90% effective, much better than health experts and the markets had expected.

• Despite the near-term outlook being negatively impacted by the second wave of the virus, global stock
markets are driven higher by vaccine hopes, central bank easing, and prospects of additional global fiscal
easing.

• Still, the biggest driving force behind the seven-month rebound has been global central banks’ unprecedented
easing measures as well as governments’ fiscal stimulus aimed at helping their respective markets and
economy through the coronavirus crisis.

• JPMorgan now expects the S&P 500 to rise about 10% to reach 4,000 by early next year with “a good potential”
to move even higher to 4,500 by the end of next year — a 24% rally from here. Goldman Sachs also sees a
gain north of 20% for the S&P 500 by the end of 2021.

• Daily new cases of the coronavirus rose to more than 144,000 in the U.S. That’s the highest single-day tally
yet and pushes the national seven-day average to 127,603 — 35% higher than where the country was a week
ago. However the market is completely ignoring the fact and it is not interested even for a temporary pause.

RBI: India in historic recession

• India’s economy probably shrank for a second straight quarter, according to a team of economists including
Michael Patra, the central bank’s deputy governor in charge of monetary policy, pushing the country into an
unprecedented recession.

• Gross domestic product contracted 8.6% in the quarter ended September, the Reserve Bank of India showed
in its first ever published ‘nowcast,’ which is an estimate based on high-frequency data. The economy had
slumped about 24% in April to June.

• The Reserve Bank’s number is buoyed by cost cuts at companies, which boosted operating profits even as
sales dipped. The team of authors also used a range of indicators from vehicle sales to flush banking liquidity
to signal brightening prospects for October. If this upturn is sustained, the Indian economy will return to
growth in the October-December quarter, earlier than projected by RBI.

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• Consumers cut back on spending as millions lost their jobs, preferring instead to squirrel away cash.
Preliminary estimates presented in the central bank’s bulletin showed a jump in household financial savings
to 21.4% of GDP in April-June, up from 7.9% in the same period a year ago and 10% in January-March. The
bulk of these savings are bank deposits. Which is not very useful.

Market Technical:

Dollar Index below 92.80 for 2 weeks

• After big move from 92.75 to 94.79 on week started 21st Sept’20, for next four consecutive weeks
market is digesting the move. The close and move below 92.77 is now consistent for 2 weeks

• Next move is more certainly will be at the lower side

• 90-89 is going to be the next target for the index. The bearish development will be in question if this week we will
have a close at or above 93.30.

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Gold: Fight Between Bulls & Bears Continue…

• Monday was the day when gold suddenly started falling and fall more than 5% which is one of the
highest in recent days

• The move brought the gold below treandline support which could have trigger major selling but
Tuesday onwards market able to contain the fall

• Friday it again went back above the trendline, so now 50,600 is support for the market and if can
sustain above the mark then move back to 52,600 is a good possibility

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Silver:

• Like gold there was fall in silver also but that was not as big as gold

• Upside resistance is at 66,200 level and above that another move towards 68,000 may be a
possibility

• If fall below 60,000 mark then upside potential for the market will be fractured completely

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S&P : Double Top Resistance

• 3590 is the previous top for the index. Market this week once breached the level but again fall
back below 3590

• 3590 is now good resistance and if it closes beyond 3590, it can be assumed that new BIDEN rally
is now kicked in

• Beyond 3590 we can say that any correction if any will hold 3220 support and will maintain the up
move.

• Another probability is, if on Friday SP500 closed below 3585, then the strength of the rally will
be in question.

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USD/INR: Ready for a move

• Above weekly chart is showing a 7 weeks long consolidation for INR. And that’s too above long-
term trend line support. After breakout from consolidated area, market is holding above the area.

• After the breakout there is a sharp correction but able to close above the consolidation zone.
• As Dollar index is falling and if it really give the control to Bear then possibility is there that this breakout can be s
a false one which is still not evident in the chart.

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Nifty50: Breakout

• A big weekly candle above previous life high is indication that

breakout did happened

• Now any correction should not go down beyond 12,400 level which was the
previous high

• Upside immediate target is at 13,000/13,100 level

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Particulars 13.11.20 6.11.20 %Chnage Anticipation Expectation

after follow through action the
1886.9 1950.31 -3.25% rally that we expected was fizzled
out
Gold
The action in daily chart suggesting
50915 52168 -2.40% upside and now for the target 52,399-
52,499 range
The buy call in silver last week was
24.62 25.57 -3.72% failed due to sudden downside
action. Market closed near 63,700 after last
Silver
week fall and now the high of last
63740 65355 -2.47% week will be resistance for the market
which is at 66,100 range
Copper was exception when more Previous high of 550 will be the
3.18 3.15 0.95% or less every market fall on last resistance for the market and if able to
week. So here we able to maintain cross then 563 will be the next
Copper our BUY call view probable target
540.7 533.85 1.28%

Last week, index tried to rise but This week we are expecting some good
DXY 92.73 92.24 0.53%
lately it give up most of its gain. downside move for the index
3590 already taken out and We are expecting some more good
1.97% market is playing in between veery upsdie move in the index as its
S&P 3578 3509 short range now maintiang the support of 3520
We had a follow through action
and to achieve the target of
3.72%
13,000 is now have a much higher The rally will continue if it can sustain
Nifty 12719.95 12263.6 possibility the suppor tof 12,400 area

Currency Basket
Pairs 13.11.20 6.11.20 Change
USDINR 74.66 74.27 0.53%
GBPINR 98.31 97.53 0.80%
JPYINR 71.1 71.88 -1.09%
EURINR 88.24 88.11 0.15%
EURUSD 1.1834 1.1874 -0.34%
Positions
Instrument Lots Cost Close M2M
Gold 10 50452 50915 463000
Silver 5 62400 63740 201000
Bulldex 2 15732 15681 -10200
Nifty 1312.5
JPY/INR -400,000
255112.5

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