Which Districts Have Seen The Strongest Gains Since Covid-19 - Property Blog Singapore - Stacked Homes

16/10/2020 Which Districts Have Seen The Strongest Gains Since Covid-19?
- Property Blog Singapore - Stacked Homes
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Which Districts Have

OPINION
Seen The Strongest Gains

Since Covid-19?
by Ryan J Ong
OCTOBER 15, 2020 7 MIN READ
 9 shares Leave comment
It may sound like a bit of a strange title, given that most people wouldn’t expect
to associate gains with the word Covid-19, but this is the current situation we
find ourselves in.
If you’ve been following the news, you’ll notice that Covid-19’s effect on
Singapore real estate has been surprising. In April 2020, for instance, analysts
predicted a fall of between three to five per cent in the property price index;
some predicted a correction of as much as eight per cent.
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16/10/2020 Which Districts Have Seen The Strongest Gains Since Covid-19? - Property Blog Singapore - Stacked Homes
The Business Times 

about 7 months ago
Latest Analysis
Analysts Condo private
expect Singapore Enhome
Bloc prices to
Finance Guides
fall up to 8% for HDB
the whole year. Interior
BUSINESSTIMES.COM.SG
Analysts predict up to 8% full-year drop in private home prices
THE Covid-19 outbreak and economic slowdown have started to bite; the Urban R…
121 20 138
So far, the market has refused to behave itself.
Private home prices for Q3 2020 went up again, by 0.8 per cent – this is about
three times higher than the 0.3 per cent in Q2. Bizarrely, it was only in Q1 of this
year – before the Circuit Breaker – when prices dipped by one per cent.
On a year-on-year basis, prices have been mostly flat; but they’re still slightly up
by around 0.1 per cent compared to 2019.
In light of this, we thought it would be interesting to see – more specifically

– which areas have been best at defying predictions to date.
This is how districts have seen private home prices move, between March to
September (the peak of the Covid-19 infections, and the Circuit Breaker period):
Note: In the following, we have chosen to exclude the prices of new launches in
the district. This is to avoid inflating the gains that occur when new launches
have just emerged, such as in district 10 which saw multiple new launches of 
late (see below).
Price Transaction Price PSF Transaction

Percentage Annualis
PSF in volume in in volume in
Gain % Gain%
March March September September:
$1,535 14 $1,830 7 19.21824104 38.436482
$1,090 28 $1,279 40 17.33944954 34.678899
$1,341 24 $1,519 27 13.27367636 26.547352
$1,727 48 $1,941 52 12.39143023 24.782860
$1,336 7 $1,439 6 7.709580838 15.4191616
$1,389 7 $1,469 14 5.759539237 11.5190784
$1,694 5 $1,786 2 5.430932704 10.861865
$1,019 7 $1,067 12 4.710500491 9.4210009
$945 55 $975 55 3.174603175 6.349206
$2,218 32 $2,288 11 3.155996393 6.3119927
$1,081 26 $1,102 45 1.942645698 3.8852913
$1,029 86 $1,040 109 1.068999028 2.1379980
$1,240 21 $1,249 26 0.7258064516 1.4516129
$861 23 $854 31 -0.8130081301 -1.626016
$1,614 28 $1,597 26 -1.053283767 -2.106567
$1,293 28 $1,275 24 -1.392111369 -2.784222
$863 24 $838 27 -2.896871379 -5.7937427
$780 13 $755 15 -3.205128205 -6.410256
$963 54 $927 55 -3.738317757 -7.4766355
$1,058 16 $1,017 15 -3.875236295 -7.7504725
$1,497 11 $1,423 17 -4.943219773 -9.886439
$1,225 24 $1,158 16 -5.469387755 -10.93877
$2,049 29 $1,927 55 -5.954123963 -11.90824
$1,367 64 $1,252 61 -8.412582297 -16.82516


$1,184 16 $1,058 18 -10.64189189 -21.28378
$2,242 8 $1,610 11 -28.18911686 -56.37823
Top five districts during Covid-19 (as of Sept 2020)
District 3 (Tiong Bahru, Queenstown)

District 14 (Eunos, Geylang, Paya Lebar)
District 12 (Novena, Toa Payoh)
District 10 (Balmoral, Bukit Timah, Holland V)
District 8 (Little India, Serangoon Road)
Notable highlights:
1. The RCR may lead the pack for this entire quarter, not just till September
Note that none of the top performing districts during Covid-19 came from the
Outside of Central Region (OCR). Except for District 10, everything on the list
above came from the Rest of Central Region (RCR). This is so far in-line with
URA flash estimates for Q3 2020:
Private non-landed homes in the RCR are estimated to have risen 3.3 per cent,
while properties in the OCR have risen 1.7 per cent. Properties in the CCR have
fallen by 4.9 per cent.
(Note: transaction prices for flash estimates are based on contracts submitted
for stamp duty payment, and developer sales up till mid-September).
2. The Landmark may help District 3 to maintain its momentum
District 3 is a bit of a hot spot thanks to the Rail Corridor. This is a 24-kilometre
stretch of nature walks, eateries, etc. built on the old rail system. Queenstown,
already a mature district, is set to benefit from this – new housing in
Queenstown, for instance, is set to be integrated with the corridor.
We can see HDB upgraders, most of whom are families, seeing more interest in
this area (and it may have already started).
As an aside, district 3 has done well even excluding new launches; but the
launch of The Landmark is likely to keep the momentum going.
This condo is a seven-minute walk to Chinatown MRT station, and about a 13-
minute walk to Clarke Quay MRT station. We previously highlighted this as going
for around $1,993 psf. On paper this sounds quite attractive, but One Pearl Bank
(launched last year) is likely to provide some competition: it’s three minutes from
the Outram MRT station, and about nine minutes to Chinatown MRT station.
The main issue is that One Pearl Bank is averaging $2,500 psf, which may put
off buyers.
We’ll try to get a more in-depth view on these two and the unfolding sales, so do
follow us on Facebook.
3. District 10 may continue to buck the downward trend in the CCR, just on
the volume of new launches
There’s renewed vigour in Holland Village, which has been designated as a new
identity node. The URA Master Plan 2019 has more details on this; but to put it
briefly, plans include weekend market and outdoor performances, and a new
communal courtyard with retail and dining. The overall scheme seems to give
Holland Village a New York East-Village-esque vibe.
This could explain why, unlike its other counterparts in the CCR, District 10 has
managed to stay on top. In the coming months, District 10 is also likely to climb
higher on the list, if for no reason than the upcoming launches:
15 Holland Hill
19 Nassim
Dalvey Haus
Hyll on Holland

Leedon Green
Mooi Residences
Van Holland
*The large number of new launches is one reason why we excluded their prices,
otherwise district 10 may top the list.
4. The pick-up in District 14 could be further sustained by the arrival of

Penrose
It’s not a surprise to District 14 ignoring a downturn and picking up anyway; it

has a history of doing this . In past years, it’s seen even further advantage with
the re-zoning of 14 hectares, which will no longer permit residential properties
(thus limiting supply and pushing up prices).
While many may sneer at District 14 for including a Red Light area, this is one of
the biggest rental hotspots – not just because of the large number of foreign
workers who get housed here, but because of its easy access to the CBD.
In the coming months, this district looks likely to keep its position thanks to the
coming of Penrose.
We’ve covered Penrose in a more detailed review; at the time we estimated

prices here to be at $1,400 to $1,600 psf; this would make it competitive with
Antares and Sims Urban Oasis nearby.
Penrose is also just seven minutes from the Aljunied MRT station. Coupled with
its city fringe location, this is probably going to be the highlight of the District.
Penrose was 60 per cent sold on its launch weekend at the end September, and
District 14 is already second-highest without its inclusion.
5. The list of top gainers may need to be drastically shuffled though, when
we see the results of Q4 2020
Take what you see with a grain of salt, for one important reason: this is the last 
quarter free of re-issued OTP restrictions.
If URA and some analysts prove correct, and what we see are inflated sales
figures from new launches, then these may not be the top Districts after all. The
new sales shown for all the District 10 launches, for example, may well be lower
than we think (and gains may not be as great after all).
On the other hand, if these results are broadly similar by end-2020, it may be a
sign that re-issued OTPs didn’t inflate the figures by too much after all.
Please bear in mind that this is only a snapshot of the current situation
None of this is a decisive argument that the above districts are “recession
resistant”, or have some fundamental way to evade Covid-19 effects. In fact,
many of the likely reasons – as we’ve described above – are momentary ones.
We will need to wait till much later down the road, such as from the end of
Covid-19 support measures, to get a clearer picture of which districts weathered
the storm best.
For now however, home buyers may want to brace for prices in these areas being
quite resilient, Covid-19 or not. To get further updates on the situation, do
like us on Facebook.
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Ryan J Ong
Ryan is an old school print journalist gone digital. He's lived in almost every type of housing in
Singapore, from flats to landed homes. Over the past 18 years, he's been a content developer for
companies large and small, a co-founder in an education business, and sometimes a voice on the
radio. He also spends too much time and money on painting little plastic soldiers.
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16/10/2020 Which Districts Have Seen The Strongest Gains Since Covid-19?

- Property Blog Singapore - Stacked Homes

Latest Analysis Condo En Bloc Finance Guides HDB Interior