Will The World End Dec. 21, 2012?

By: Lindsay Hoffman

The ​world​ is going to ​end​! It’s the apocalypse! 2012 is real! Yes, that is what all the hype has been about
recently—that a calendar from about 5000 years ago can predict the ​end​ ​of​ the ​world​ as we know it. Well
before we start digging holes underground we should take a moment to stop and think. 2012 can be
easily deconstructed by what Richard Hofstadter calls the “paranoid style.”
“The paranoid spokesman sees the fate ​of​ conspiracy in apocalyptic terms—he traffics in the birth and
death ​of​ whole worlds… he constantly lives at a turning point… he expresses the anxiety ​of​ those who
are living though the last days and he is sometimes disposed to set a date fort the apocalypse. “Richard
Hofstadter constructed this idea called “the paranoid style” in order to explain this “heated exaggeration,
suspiciousness, and conspiratorial fantasy”. What Hofstadter finds most interesting about “the paranoid
style” is its ability to persuade the minds ​of​ even the most normal o ​ f​people with the most un-rational ideas
“(Hofstadter).The way that these un-rational ideas turn rational is interpreted by what Michael Shermer
has deemed “Normal Thought.” This concept is how the paranoid style can be understood in the most
sane ​of​ minds and cause them to believe things on apocalyptic terms. Normal thought is characterized
into four categories: patternicity, agenticity, confirmation bias and hindsight bias.
Patternicity is how people look for patterns in meaningless noise; to be more clear patternicity is when we
believe something is real that really is not. Patternicity comes from natural selection; the reasons humans
see patterns that are not there is ultimately to protect themselves. For example a russle in the grass may
just be the wind but due to evolution we are cautious to think something may be there. The cost ​of​ being
eaten by a predator is more than the cost ​of​ being cautious and taking it serious (Shermer).

Hindsight bias is similar to patternicity in the sense that it involves finding random patterns. The difference
with hindsight bias is it is finding patterns in history that would confirm their beliefs, people believe that
since these patterns take place they can predict future outcomes, these future outcomes tend to be more
exaggerated than they truly are. (Shermer)
Agenticity is the idea that “invisible agents rule the ​world​.” An example ​of​Agenticity can be anything along
the lines ​of​ “souls, spirits, ghosts, gods, demons, angels, aliens, intelligent designers, government
conspirators,” and anything else one can come up with. Basically agenticity in respect to the paranoid
style is associated with a negative—that the evilest ​of​ evils is watching us and going to take us over and
we are helpless to stop it (Shermer).
Conformation Bias according to ​The Skeptics Dictionary i​ s a “type ​of​ selective thinking whereby one tends
to notice and look for what confirms one’s beliefs, and to ignore [or not look for] the relevance ​of​ what
contradicts” those beliefs.
Now that the paranoid style has been defined some information about the Mayan culture must be present
in order to understand how the two work together. The ancient culture ​of​ the Mayans have left behind
very few artifacts from their time, but what is known ​of​ them is that they were very advanced with
numbers and astrology. They made many calendars based off ​of​ the sun and the stars which are what
calendars and some ​of​ our math system is based off ​of​ today. The Mayans had many different calendars
most ​of​ them lasting shorter periods ​of​ time for example one calendar called Tzolk’in lasted only 260 days
while another, called the Haab, similar to our calendar, lasted 365 days. Later they combined these two
calendars into a 52 year calendar; this was called a Calendar Round. This Calendar Round was good
only to remember birthdays, religious and agricultural events, but they needed a calendar that could
record history; the calendar round could not record history longer than 52 years and that was when the
Long Count Calendar was introduced. This is the calendar that corresponds to 2012. This calendar starts
at what the Mayan’s believed was the starting date. It is believed that this starting day was August 11
3114 BE and lasts 5,125 years and ends on December 21, 2012. The Mayans believe that we are living in
the fourth ​world​ or era. This means according to the Mayans that the gods have attempted to make
worlds but they have failed until this time with the creation ​of​ man. The Mayans believe at the ​endof​ this
cycle will occur on December 21,2012 and the gods will come down and create a significant change all
over the ​world​ for the next ​world​ or era to begin. And with that interpretation ​of​ what the Mayan’s predict
“the ​end​ ​of​ the fourth ​world​” is what causes people to believe that this December 21, 2012 is the ​end​ ​of
the ​world​ or at least the ​endof​ humans (Mesoamerican Long Count Calendar).
So let’s find fact from fiction by using the paranoid style beginning with patternicity and hindsight bias.
Remember that patternicity is seeing patterns that make something seem real that really is not, and
hindsight bias is looking at these patterns to predict a usually negative and extreme future outcome. The
Mayans have the Long Count Calendar which ends on December 21, 2012. They believe that we are
living in the fourth ​world​ and each ​world​ before us failed until humans came to existence; because the
calendar ends people think that means the ​world​ will ​end​. In fact there is a robot called Web Bot which
searches for patterns within the internet to predict the unconscious patterns going on in society. The Web
Bot was originally invented to track events going on in the economy and help make future predictions for it
and it successfully did. Along with successfully predicting economic issues it has predicted some
catastrophic events to happen that have such as September 11 and Hurricane Katrina and currently it is
predicting a catastrophic event to happen sometime during 2012. The idea ​of​ patternicity in this example
is the random patterns found within Web Bot and the calendar ending, while hindsight bias is the multiple
events that Web Bot has predicted. Another pattern which feeds the hindsight bias that people have found
is by a famous author and profit from the early to mid 1500s. He is Michel de Nostradame commonly
referred to as Nostradamus. His most famous book titled ​Les Prophetiesc​ ontains small four lined poems
called quatrains which are intended to be prophecies for the future. According to Wikipedia and
Nostradamus.org, “Nostradamus enthusiasts credited him with predicting a copious number ​of​ events in
world​ history including the French revolution, the atom bomb, the rise ​of​ Adolf Hitler”, 9-11 and many
others. (Web Bot) Some ​of​ Nostradamus’ quatrains can be interpreted as the apocalypse in 2012:
"” ​"After a great misery for mankind, an ever greater approaches, the great cycle ​of
the centuries renewed, it will rain blood, milk,famine, war disease, the sky will be seen a
great fire
dragging a trail ​of​ sparks."(C2 Q 46 )(Nostradamus)

From that quatrain from Nostradamus people have thought it tells ​of​ a comet planet called Nibiru to come
in orbit with our solar system and either collide with Earth or go through the asteroid belt causing an
asteroid to hit earth and kill most the living on it while the rest would die in ​World​ War 3 that would start as
a result. Although “detractors believe these predictions are examples ​of​ selective thinking, which find
non-existent patterns in ambiguous statements. Because ​of​ this it has been claimed that Nostradamus is
“100% accurate ​of​ predicting events after they happen” (Nostradamus). The patternicity is between the
Mayan’s Long Count Calendar ending in 2012 and Nostradamus predicting a catastrophic event in 2012.
People believe that since there are these “patterns” that explain the same apocalypse to happen in 2012
then it must be true. The hindsight bias is found with the idea ​of​ Nostradamus because he is a profit and it
seems that most ​of​ his prophecies have come true in the past so that must mean that 2012 will come true
too. In fact we can use patternicity and hindsight bias in relation to how many times the ​world​ is supposed
to ​end​; i.e.; a comet hitting the earth in 1999, Y2K in 2000 and many more throughout history. Because
there is no written reason as to why the calendar ends on that specific date it is human nature to fear the
worst.
The next important trait ​of​ the paranoid style is agenticity. As stated previously agenticity is the
idea that invisible agents are going to take over the ​world​and we are helpless to stop it. Although
agenticity is usually used in political conspiracies it can be recognized in the ideas involving the
apocalypse ​of​ 2012. The Mayan cultures believe their god will come and create some change. From
patternicity and hindsight bias it is clear that people today believe that some catastrophic event is going to
happen that no one can fight. Whether it be an act ​of​ a god, war or a force greater than that. Some ​of​ the
ideas for events that will occur to ​end​ the ​world​ in 2012 are: Planet Nibiru causing a catastrophic impact
on earth, WW3, geometric reversal, galactic alignment causing a black hole and many more. These are
obviously the greatest evils and destruction that can possibly occur and nobody can stop it, even a
superhero if existed would be able to go against these forces ​of​ nature.
Lastly and most importantly is confirmation bias. This bias pulls all the information together
because confirmation bias is only searching for information that confirms somebody’s beliefs or not even
looking for information at all. In fact I asked my friends what they believed would happen in 2012 and they
all said “the ​world​ might to​end​.” When I asked “why?” they stated things along the lines as “a calendar
ends,” “I saw it on TV,” and “there is a movie about it.” The truth is the majority ​of​ people don’t know any
facts about 2012 or where these ideas come from. Most conspiracy theories and anything that fits the
paranoid style come into the public eye through pop culture. According to Lane Crothers the author ​of
Globalization and American Popular Culture​, “Moviemakers, for example, have learned that a movie
audience is effectively captive… it has become a common place for movies to feature actors going to
specific restaurants… or using particular types ​of​ cars”(13). Movies and media affect people’s interests
and ideas so greatly. If thought about on a small scale such as what Crothers’s explained it is easy to see
that if a Movie shows the coolest person driving an expensive car then the viewer will want the car, if the
movie has product placement the viewer will begin to want the product because they see it all the time it
becomes something someone wants. This makes it understandable why the movie ​2012, ​released
November 13, 2009, has caused so much belief in the apocalypse ​of​ 2012. This is most​of​ what people
have seen about 2012 and most ​of​ them have not researched it and even if they have the movie makes
you think “what if?” Movies and media greatly contribute to the confirmation bias ​of​ the paranoid style.
To further prove how much the ideas ​of​ 2012 are a completely westernized idea and extremely
misinterpreted by confirmation bias, the creditable truth ​of​ 2012 must be told beginning with the ​end​ ​of​ the
Mayan calendar. “Just as the calendar you have on your kitchen wall does not cease to exist after
December 31, the Mayan calendar does not cease to exist on December 21, 2012. This date is the ​end​ ​of
the Mayan long-count period, but then—just as your calendar begins again on January 1—another long
count period begins for the Mayan Calendar”(​Yeomans​). Mayan scholars argue that the idea that the
calendar ends misinterprets Mayan history “for the Maya it was a huge celebration to make it to the ​end​ ​of
a whole cycle” (Nobel). In Fact the Mayans celebrate the ​end​ ​of​ the cycle because they see it in their
culture as a positive and spiritual transition for mankind and there is little or no evidence supporting that
the Mayans would believe that the ​world​ would ​end​ in 2012. Next, the patterns ​of​ the Web Bot are
completely based off selective thinking. The Web Bot was invented to track economical trends in society
and although it has predicted things like September 11, it has falsely predicted more events in the future
than it has predicted true. When stopping to think about Web Bot everything it predicts are always
negative and never positive (Web Bot). It would be foolish to believe that a robot would 100% ​of​ the time
be correct if it only randomly predicts events right and the ability to predict trends in economics has
nothing to do with the ability to predict the future. In fact, the Web Bot searches things within the internet
to predict future and if you search the internet about 2012, a good portion will be unreliable blogs about
the ​world​ ending (Nostradamus).
Although the ideas ​of​ Nostradamus may seem to be prophecies that have came true, there is not a
reason to believe the ​world​ is going to ​end​. It is not even confirmable to say that he predicted anything at
all. All ​of​ Nostradamus’ predictions are up to interpretation and you can change the interpretations to
whatever you choose it to mean; in fact, some people have actually changed the verses ​of​ it to make
them true, such as his poem that can represent September 11 and then through popular culture became
misinterpreted to a false poem. You can go online and look at any website about Nostradamus and many
blogs will come up which most people will read and they are completely not creditable. If you pull up a
couple websites they will say that one poem will be foretelling a future event and on another website the
same poem confirmed a different past event. How can one poem represent so many different things if
they were written to only foretell one certain event? It is clear that none ​of​ the interpretations​of
Nostradamus’ texts can be true if every interpretation is different. Only Nostradamus can tell us what he
truly meant by his writings so without him no one can say he predicted the ​end​ ​of​ the ​world​, and people
seem to not notice the fact that Nostradamus never said the ​world​ was going to ​end​, he just predicts
catastrophic events (Nostradamus).
Thus proving the predictions for 2012 cannot be true because people can interpret what Nostradamus
predicted however they choose to (Nostradamus).As for the planet Nibiru that Nostradamus and other
texts refer to, it does not exist. According to NASA, “There is no creditable evidence-telescopic or
otherwise-for this objects existence. There is also no evidence ​of​ any kind for its gravitational effects upon
bodies in our solar system.” Even with common sense, if a planet were to come anywhere near earth in
the next 2 years it would definitely be visible with the naked eye already. The idea ​of​ geometric reversal
can also be taken off the list ​of​ catastrophic things to happen in 2012. Geometric reversal is the changing
of​ the magnetic fields on earth, meaning the compass would point South instead ​of​ North. While it is
scientifically provable that the magnetic fields reverse and have many times throughout history, it is
impossible to say that would cause the ​end​ ​of​ the ​world​. The magnetic field takes 5000 years to
completely reverse so the effects ​of​ it would be minimal and gradual throughout our lifetime. Also the last
geometric reversal occurred about 400,000 years ago and humans were in existence at that time and
they definitely have survived that so we have no need to be worrisome. And lastly galactic alignment
causing a black hole is a theory where people believe that the planets will align with the center ​of​ the
galaxy causing a black hole. According to NASA, “the gravitational tugs experienced by the Earth are due
to the moon and the sun. There are no planetary alignments in the next few decades, and even if these
alignments were to occur their effects on the Earth would be negligible. Each December the Earth and the
sun align with the approximate center ​of​ the Milky Way Galaxy but that is an annual event ​of​ no
consequence. There are no creditable predictions for worrisome astronomical events in 2012.”
It cannot be more clear that 2012 is nothing more than an act ​of​ “the paranoid style” and when
actually thought about it is crazy to think that the ideas people have come up with would be concrete
evidence to the ​end​ ​of​ the ​world​. The majority ​of​ the evidence is amateur and made up and doesn’t have
to do with Mayan culture which is the information that started this all. So there is no need to start digging
holes and saving food for doomsday. Yes the internet is right, 2012 is real, it is a real year and a real day.
See you all December 22, 2012.

Works Cited
Crothers, Lane. ​Globalization & American Popular Culture: Second Edition​. Ed. Manfred B. Steger and Terrell
Carver. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield, 2010. Print.
Hofstatadter, Richard. "The Paranoid Style in American Politics." ​Harpers Magazine​ Nov. 1964: 77-86. Print.
"Mesoamerican Long Count calendar -." ​Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia​. 11 Nov. 2009. Web. 11 Nov. 2009.
<​http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoamerican_Long_Count_calendar​>.
Nobel, Sandra, comp. ​USA Today​ 28 Mar. 2007: 11-D.
Http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoamerican_Long_Count_calendar​. Web. 11 Nov. 2009.
Nostradamus.org.​ Web. 17 Nov. 2009. <​http://nostradamus.org​>.
Radin, D., M. Schiltz, C. Watt, and R. Wiseman. "Confirmation Bias." ​The Skeptics Dictonary​. 23 Feb. 2009. Web.
13 Nov. 2009.
Radin, D., M. Schiltz, C. Watt, and R. Wiseman. "Confirmation Bias." ​The Skeptics Dictonary​. 23 Feb. 2009. Web.
13 Nov. 2009.
Shermer, Michael. "Patternicity: Finding Meaningful Patterns in Meaningless Noise: Why the brain believes
something is real when it is not." ​Scientific American Magazine​ Dec. 2008. Dec. 2008. Web. 11 Nov. 2009.
<​http://www.scientificamerican.com/​>.
Shermer, Michael. "Why People Believe Invisible Agents Control The ​World​: A skeptics take on souls, spirits,
ghosts, gods, demons, angels, aliens and other invisible powers that be."​Scientific American Magazine​ June 2009.
Http://www.scientificamerican.com/​. June 2009. Web. 11 Nov. 2009.
"Web Bot -." ​Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia​. 11 Nov. 2009. Web. 11 Nov. 2009.
<​http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Web_bot​>.
Yeomans, Don. "Frequently Asked Questions: 2012-A Scientific Reality Check." ​NASA.gov.​ Ed. Jason Townsend.
NASA, 10 Nov. 2009. Web. 11 Nov. 2009.