Barclays State of The Industry March 2019

Equity Research
March 25, 2019
U.S. Large-Cap Banks

Jason M. Goldberg, CFA
U.S. Large-Cap Banks 1.212.526.8580
jason.goldberg@barclays.com
BCI, US
State of the Industry Inna Blyakher

1.212.526.3904
inna.blyakher@barclays.com
BCI, US
March 2019 Matthew Kesselhaut

1.212.526.0181
matthew.kesselhaut@barclays.com
BCI, US
Eugene Koysman
Save the dates 1.212.526.0971
May 14-15, 2019 eugene.koysman@barclays.com
BCI, US
U.S. Financials in London
Brian Morton, CFA
Sept 9-11, 2019 1.212.526.2163
Global Financials in NYC brian.morton@barclays.com
BCI, US
Celebrating 15 years of our daily morning Bank Brief email (born March 22, 2004)
Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 191.
Table of contents
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Page 3 Page 54 Page 95
Executive Summary Capital Outlook Company Intelligence
• Changes • Guidance grid
Page 8
• Scenarios • Bull, bear, blurry w/
2019 Bank Stock Outlook
• Return expectations company snapshots
Page 22 • Data bank
Earnings Drivers for 2019 Page 70 Page 173
• Loans Other Key Investor Topics 2019 Outlook Survey
• Net interest margin • Regulatory reform
• Deposits Page 182
• Accounting changes
• Fee income History Lesson
• Technology
• Expenses • Competitive landscape
• Asset quality Page 190
• Economies of scale Disclosures
• Capital & liquidity • Retail distribution
• Profitability • Consolidation
• Macro concerns
• Valuation
Jason M. Goldberg, CFA I Managing Director
Tel +1 212 526 8580 I Email jason.goldberg@barclays.com
Barclays; 745 7th Avenue, 17th Floor; New York, NY 10019 I www.barclays.com
2 My homepage: https://live.barcap.com/go/research/analyst/LB00427
Executive Summary

U.S. Large-Cap Banks Valuation Table
Implied 52 Week Avg Dil Market P/E Relative to EPS Growth
Industry View / Price Target Range Shares Cap EPS P/E Ratio S&P 500 and PEG Ratios
Industry / Company Ticker Company Rating 3/22/19 Target P/E High - Low (mil) ($ bil) 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 19E/18A PEG 20E/19E PEG
LARGE-CAP BANKS Industry View: Positive

Money Center Banks
Bank of America BAC Equal Weight $27.01 $36 12.2x $32 - $23 9,996 $261.2 $1.56 $2.61 $2.85 $2.95 17.3x 10.3x 9.5x 9.2x 82% 59% 58% 60% 9.2% 1.1 3.5% 2.7
Citigroup C Overweight $60.98 $82 9.9x $75 - $48 2,403 $144.4 $2.76 $6.68 $7.35 $8.25 22.1x 9.1x 8.3x 7.4x 104% 52% 51% 48% 10.0% 0.9 12.2% 0.7
Goldman Sachs Group GS Equal Weight $188.96 $247 9.0x $262 - $152 384 $69.5 $9.01 $25.25 $25.85 $27.40 21.0x 7.5x 7.3x 6.9x 99% 43% 45% 45% 2.4% 3.1 6.0% 1.2
JPMorgan Chase JPM Overweight $99.76 $140 13.0x $119 - $91 3,347 $326.8 $6.31 $8.99 $9.85 $10.75 15.8x 11.1x 10.1x 9.3x 75% 64% 62% 61% 9.6% 1.2 9.1% 1.1
Morgan Stanley MS Equal Weight $41.72 $55 10.0x $56 - $37 1,705 $70.9 $3.07 $4.72 $5.15 $5.50 13.6x 8.8x 8.1x 7.6x 64% 51% 50% 49% 9.1% 1.0 6.8% 1.2
Money Center Banks 10.8x $872.8 18.0x 9.4x 8.7x 8.1x 85% 54% 53% 53% 8.1% 1.5 7.5% 1.4
Trust Banks
BNY Mellon BK Overweight $50.50 $67 14.6x $58 - $44 989 $48.5 $3.73 $4.19 $4.40 $4.60 13.5x 12.1x 11.5x 11.0x 64% 69% 70% 72% 5.0% 2.4 4.5% 2.5
Northern Trust NTRS Equal Weight $88.59 $109 15.5x $116 - $76 222 $19.4 $4.92 $6.64 $6.75 $7.05 18.0x 13.3x 13.1x 12.6x 85% 76% 80% 82% 1.7% 8.1 4.4% 3.0
State Street STT Overweight $65.00 $98 12.6x $104 - $58 384 $24.7 $6.42 $6.58 $6.90 $7.75 10.1x 9.9x 9.4x 8.4x 48% 57% 58% 55% 4.9% 2.0 12.3% 0.8
Trust Banks 14.2x $92.6 13.9x 11.8x 11.3x 10.6x 65% 67% 69% 69% 3.8% 4.2 7.1% 2.1
Super Regionals
Ally Financial ALLY Overweight $26.07 $34 8.6x $29 - $21 415 $10.6 $2.41 $3.34 $3.60 $3.95 10.8x 7.8x 7.2x 6.6x 51% 45% 44% 43% 7.8% 1.0 9.7% 0.7
BB&T Corp. BBT Equal Weight $45.09 $59 13.4x $56 - $41 775 $34.4 $2.74 $3.91 $4.20 $4.40 16.5x 11.5x 10.7x 10.2x 78% 66% 66% 67% 7.4% 1.6 4.8% 2.3
Capital One Financial COF Overweight $80.00 $114 9.5x $101 - $70 473 $37.4 $3.48 $11.93 $11.40 $12.00 23.0x 6.7x 7.0x 6.7x 108% 38% 43% 43% -4.4% NM 5.3% 1.3
Citizens Financial CFG Equal Weight $31.77 $43 10.4x $44 - $28 469 $14.8 $3.25 $3.52 $3.90 $4.15 9.8x 9.0x 8.1x 7.7x 46% 52% 50% 50% 10.8% 0.8 6.4% 1.3
Comerica CMA Underweight $72.07 $95 11.0x $101 - $64 164 $11.5 $4.14 $7.20 $8.15 $8.60 17.4x 10.0x 8.8x 8.4x 82% 57% 54% 55% 13.2% 0.8 5.5% 1.6
Fifth Third FITB Equal Weight $24.62 $33 11.2x $35 - $22 663 $15.9 $1.98 $2.54 $2.70 $2.95 12.4x 9.7x 9.1x 8.3x 59% 56% 56% 54% 6.3% 1.5 9.3% 1.0
Huntington Bancshares HBAN Equal Weight $12.25 $16 11.0x $17 - $11 1,073 $12.8 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 $1.45 12.3x 10.2x 8.8x 8.4x 58% 59% 53% 55% 16.7% 0.6 3.6% 2.4
KeyCorp KEY Underweight $14.97 $20 10.0x $22 - $14 1,030 $15.3 $1.12 $1.71 $1.85 $2.00 13.4x 8.8x 8.1x 7.5x 63% 50% 49% 49% 8.2% 1.1 8.1% 1.0
M&T Bank MTB Overweight $153.79 $207 14.5x $189 - $134 140 $21.3 $8.70 $12.79 $13.75 $14.25 17.7x 12.0x 11.2x 10.8x 83% 69% 68% 70% 7.5% 1.6 3.6% 3.1
PNC Financial PNC Equal Weight $119.18 $156 13.5x $155 - $108 463 $54.5 $10.36 $10.71 $11.20 $11.55 11.5x 11.1x 10.6x 10.3x 54% 64% 65% 67% 4.6% 2.4 3.1% 3.4
Regions Financial RF Underweight $13.53 $17 10.3x $20 - $12 1,043 $13.9 $1.00 $1.41 $1.55 $1.65 13.5x 9.6x 8.7x 8.2x 64% 55% 53% 53% 9.9% 1.0 6.5% 1.4
SunTrust STI Equal Weight $57.40 $69 11.7x $75 - $46 453 $25.7 $4.47 $5.59 $5.70 $5.90 12.8x 10.3x 10.1x 9.7x 61% 59% 62% 63% 2.0% 5.2 3.5% 2.9
U.S. Bancorp USB Overweight $48.28 $64 13.9x $56 - $43 1,618 $77.7 $3.51 $4.14 $4.35 $4.60 13.8x 11.7x 11.1x 10.5x 65% 67% 68% 68% 5.1% 2.3 5.7% 1.9
Wells Fargo WFC Overweight $48.31 $64 12.0x $60 - $43 4,701 $221.3 $4.10 $4.28 $4.85 $5.35 11.8x 11.3x 10.0x 9.0x 56% 65% 61% 59% 13.3% 0.8 10.3% 1.0
Super Regionals 11.5x $567.0 14.0x 10.0x 9.3x 8.7x 66% 57% 57% 57% 7.7% 1.6 6.1% 1.8
Large-Cap Banks 11.7x $1,532.4 14.9x 10.1x 9.4x 8.8x 70% 58% 58% 58% 7.3% 1.9 6.6% 1.7
BKX 91.76 112.0 - 79.9
S&P 500 2,800.71 2,941 - 2,347 $132.00 $160.58 $171.20 $182.69 21.2x 17.4x 16.4x 15.3x 6.6% 2.6 6.7% 2.4
Priced March 22, 2019. For full disclosures on each covered company, including details of our company-specific valuation methodology and risks, please refer to http://publicresearch.barcap.com
Source: Barclays Research, Company reports, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Bloomberg, and Refinitiv. Jason M. Goldberg, CFA I Managing Director
U.S. Large-Cap Banks Valuation Table (continued)
4Q18A 4Q18A Core 4Q18A
Dividend Book Tangible Depo Price Performance 4Q18A Balances ($ bn) Oper Rev 4Q18A Performance Ratios 4Q18A Asset Quality Ratios
Industry / Company Ticker Rate Yield Value P/BV Book P/TBV Prem Week 2019 2018 2017 Assets Lns Dep ($ mn) ROE ROTCE ROA CET1 TCE NIM Fee/Rev Eff Ratio NCO NPA LLR/Ln
LARGE-CAP BANKS
Money Center Banks
Bank of America BAC $0.60 2.2% $25.13 1.07x $17.91 1.51x 7% (8%) 10% (17%) 34% $2,355 $947 $1,381 $22,839 11.6% 16.3% 1.24% 11.6% 7.5% 2.48% 45.4% 57.5% 0.39% 0.59% 1.01%
Citigroup C $1.80 3.0% $75.05 0.81x $63.79 0.96x NM (6%) 17% (30%) 25% $1,917 $684 $1,013 $17,132 8.8% 10.4% 0.88% 11.9% 8.0% 2.71% 30.0% 57.7% 1.06% 0.53% 1.80%
Goldman Sachs Group GS $3.20 1.7% $207.36 0.91x $196.64 0.96x -4% (5%) 13% (34%) 6% $933 $128 $158 $8,080 12.0% 12.7% 1.07% 13.1% 8.1% - 87.7% 57.4% - - -
JPMorgan Chase JPM $3.20 3.2% $70.35 1.42x $56.33 1.77x 13% (6%) 2% (9%) 24% $2,623 $985 $1,471 $26,978 11.5% 14.2% 1.06% 12.0% 7.1% 2.54% 46.2% 57.5% 0.51% 0.52% 1.37%
Morgan Stanley MS $1.20 2.9% $42.20 0.99x $36.99 1.13x 6% (4%) 5% (24%) 24% $854 $151 $188 $8,548 7.6% 8.7% 0.72% 16.9% 7.4% - 88.4% 78.3% - - -
Money Center Banks 2.6% 1.04x 1.26x 5% (6%) 9% (23%) 23% $8,681 $2,894 $4,211 $83,577 10.3% 12.4% 0.99% 13.1% 7.6% 2.58% 59.6% 61.7% 0.65% 0.55% 1.39%
Trust Banks
BNY Mellon BK $1.12 2.2% $38.63 1.31x $19.04 2.65x 32% (5%) 7% (13%) 14% $362 $57 $239 $4,011 8.7% 17.3% 1.02% 10.7% 4.8% 1.24% 78.0% 67.4% -0.01% 0.14% 0.26%
Northern Trust NTRS $2.40 2.7% $43.95 2.02x $40.26 2.20x 36% (7%) 6% (16%) 12% $132 $32 $104 $1,512 17.0% 17.8% 1.34% 12.9% 6.7% 1.52% 71.6% 67.2% -0.02% 0.36% 0.35%
State Street STT $1.88 2.9% $54.52 1.19x $30.92 2.10x 20% (7%) 3% (35%) 26% $245 $26 $180 $2,986 7.6% 12.9% 0.79% 11.7% 6.8% 1.55% 76.5% 72.2% 0.00% 0.19% 0.26%
Trust Banks 2.6% 1.51x 2.32x 30% (6%) 5% (21%) 17% $739 $115 $524 $8,509 11.1% 16.0% 1.05% 11.8% 6.1% 1.44% 75.3% 68.9% -0.01% 0.23% 0.29%
Super Regionals
Ally Financial ALLY $0.68 2.6% $32.77 0.80x $32.10 0.81x NM (3%) 15% (22%) 53% $179 $130 $106 $1,525 8.9% 9.2% 0.66% 9.1% 7.3% 2.72% 27.5% 61.2% 0.85% 0.83% 0.96%
BB&T Corp. BBT $1.62 3.6% $35.46 1.27x $21.61 2.09x 12% (10%) 4% (13%) 6% $226 $149 $161 $2,956 11.1% 19.1% 1.44% 10.2% 7.7% 3.49% 41.5% 57.8% 0.38% 0.37% 1.05%
Capital One Financial COF $1.60 2.0% $101.15 0.79x $69.20 1.16x 2% (5%) 6% (24%) 14% $373 $246 $250 $6,975 9.1% 15.2% 1.37% 11.2% 9.1% 6.96% 16.5% 58.8% 2.67% 0.35% 2.94%
Citizens Financial CFG $1.28 4.0% $42.87 0.74x $28.73 1.11x 1% (11%) 7% (29%) 18% $161 $117 $120 $1,592 9.1% 13.8% 1.17% 10.6% 8.5% 3.22% 26.4% 56.9% 0.29% 0.71% 1.06%
Comerica CMA $2.68 3.7% $46.89 1.54x $42.89 1.68x 9% (12%) 5% (21%) 27% $71 $50 $56 $864 16.3% 17.4% 1.74% 11.1% 9.8% 3.70% 28.9% 50.1% 0.09% 0.44% 1.34%
Fifth Third FITB $0.88 3.6% $23.07 1.07x $19.17 1.28x 3% (13%) 5% (22%) 12% $146 $95 $109 $1,683 11.9% 14.3% 1.25% 10.2% 8.6% 3.29% 35.5% 56.4% 0.35% 0.42% 1.16%
Huntington Bancshares HBAN $0.56 4.6% $9.45 1.30x $7.34 1.67x 7% (11%) 3% (18%) 10% $109 $75 $85 $1,189 12.9% 17.2% 1.25% 9.7% 7.1% 3.41% 29.3% 56.9% 0.27% 0.52% 1.03%
KeyCorp KEY $0.68 4.5% $13.87 1.08x $11.14 1.34x 4% (14%) 1% (27%) 10% $140 $90 $107 $1,653 13.1% 16.4% 1.36% 9.9% 8.3% 3.16% 39.0% 58.7% 0.27% 0.64% 0.99%
M&T Bank MTB $4.00 2.6% $102.69 1.50x $69.28 2.22x 14% (11%) 7% (16%) 9% $120 $88 $90 $1,541 14.7% 22.0% 1.84% 10.1% 8.3% 3.92% 30.9% 50.7% 0.17% 1.06% 1.15%
PNC Financial PNC $3.80 3.2% $95.72 1.25x $75.42 1.58x 8% (8%) 2% (19%) 23% $382 $226 $268 $4,340 11.9% 15.2% 1.40% 9.6% 9.2% 2.96% 42.2% 59.4% 0.16% 0.80% 1.16%
Regions Financial RF $0.56 4.1% $13.92 0.97x $9.19 1.47x 5% (14%) 1% (23%) 20% $126 $83 $94 $1,452 11.2% 17.3% 1.30% 9.9% 7.7% 3.55% 33.1% 58.1% 0.46% 0.68% 1.01%
SunTrust STI $2.00 3.5% $49.57 1.16x $35.73 1.61x 6% (10%) 14% (22%) 18% $216 $152 $163 $2,388 11.4% 15.8% 1.23% 9.2% 7.6% 3.27% 34.3% 59.9% 0.26% 0.39% 1.06%
U.S. Bancorp USB $1.48 3.1% $28.01 1.72x $21.81 2.21x 15% (7%) 6% (15%) 4% $467 $287 $345 $5,748 15.9% 20.0% 1.59% 9.1% 7.7% 3.15% 42.0% 54.0% 0.50% 0.32% 1.39%
Wells Fargo WFC $1.80 3.7% $38.06 1.27x $31.86 1.52x 7% (5%) 5% (24%) 10% $1,896 $943 $1,286 $20,743 12.9% 15.4% 1.28% 11.7% 7.9% 2.94% 38.2% 61.7% 0.30% 0.74% 1.04%
Super Regionals 3.5% 1.17x 1.55x 7% (10%) 6% (21%) 17% $4,610 $2,731 $3,240 $54,649 12.2% 16.3% 1.35% 10.1% 8.2% 3.55% 33.2% 57.2% 0.50% 0.59% 1.24%
Large-Cap Banks 3.2% 1.19x 1.59x 10% (8%) 7% (22%) 18% $14,030 $5,740 $7,975 $146,736 11.6% 15.4% 1.23% 11.0% 7.8% 3.09% 45.0% 59.8% 0.45% 0.53% 1.12%
BKX (8%) 7% (20%) 16%
S&P 500 $55 2.0% $836 3.35x (1%) 12% (6%) 19%
Priced March 22, 2019. For full disclosures on each covered company, including details of our company-specific valuation methodology and risks, please refer to http://publicresearch.barcap.com
Source: Barclays Research, Company reports, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Bloomberg, and Refinitiv. Jason M. Goldberg, CFA I Managing Director
Historical Valuations
The group’s relative forward P/E is below its 15-year average
Forward P/E Price/Book Value Price/Tangible Book Value Dividend Yield
Long-Term Current Relative to Relative to S&P Long-Term Long-Term Long-Term Price Performance from year-end:
Long- Long- Long- Long- Long- Long-
10-yr 10-yr 10-yr 10-yr 10-yr 10-yr 2009 2014 Rel to
Curr Term High Low Term Group Curr Term Curr Term High Low Curr Term High Low Curr Term High Low 1990 2019
Median Avg Avg Median Median Median (10yrs) (5yrs) SPX
Median Median Median Median Median Median
LARGE-CAP BANKS
Money Center Banks
BAC 9.4x 11.3x 10.9x 21.0x 3.6x 83% 87% 101% 58% 74% 66% 1.07x 0.67x 1.46x 2.89x 0.14x 1.51x 1.04x 1.56x 5.11x 0.37x 2.2% 0.6% 3.1% 32.4% 0.2% 371% 79% 50% 9% -2%
C 8.1x 9.7x 11.0x 39.9x 5.4x 83% 74% 87% 50% 63% 67% 0.81x 0.71x 1.40x 5.27x 0.12x 0.96x 0.85x 1.50x 5.35x 0.26x 3.0% 0.1% 1.3% 9.5% 0.0% 242% 84% 12% 17% 5%
GS 7.2x 10.1x 11.1x 21.4x 6.8x 71% 65% 78% 45% 66% 67% 0.91x 0.97x 1.23x 4.82x 0.56x 0.96x 1.02x 1.31x 4.82x 0.60x 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 2.3% 0.8% - 12% -3% 13% 1%
JPM 9.9x 10.5x 10.9x 17.9x 4.1x 94% 91% 107% 62% 69% 66% 1.42x 0.98x 1.19x 3.35x 0.30x 1.77x 1.34x 1.60x 3.35x 0.30x 3.2% 2.6% 3.0% 26.9% 0.4% 2660% 137% 58% 1% -10%
MS 8.0x 10.9x 10.5x 20.3x 5.8x 73% 76% 86% 50% 71% 64% 0.99x 0.84x 1.45x 5.55x 0.33x 1.13x 1.01x 1.54x 5.55x 0.35x 2.9% 1.2% 1.2% 5.5% 0.6% - 39% 6% 4% -8%
Money Centers 8.5x 10.5x 10.9x 24.1x 5.1x 81% 78% 92% 53% 68% 66% 1.04x 0.83x 1.35x 4.38x 0.29x 1.26x 1.05x 1.50x 4.84x 0.38x 2.6% 1.2% 2.0% 15.3% 0.4% 1091% 70% 25% 9% -3%
Trust Banks
BK 11.4x 12.5x 13.4x 27.5x 3.3x 91% 85% 123% 71% 82% 81% 1.31x 1.13x 1.41x 7.19x 0.41x 2.65x 2.93x 3.16x 9.27x 0.41x 2.2% 1.8% 2.2% 15.0% 1.1% 2039% 80% 24% 7% -5%
NTRS 13.0x 16.4x 16.9x 41.0x 6.3x 79% 77% 140% 81% 107% 103% 2.02x 1.86x 2.50x 8.80x 1.18x 2.20x 2.00x 2.50x 8.80x 1.30x 2.7% 2.1% 1.9% 3.6% 0.6% 1686% 68% 30% 5% -6%
STT 9.2x 12.5x 14.6x 33.2x 5.5x 73% 63% 99% 57% 82% 89% 1.19x 1.36x 2.46x 6.79x 0.83x 2.10x 2.23x 2.76x 7.14x 1.39x 2.9% 1.8% 1.4% 4.1% 0.1% 1389% 49% -17% 3% -8%
Trust Banks 11.2x 13.8x 15.0x 33.9x 5.0x 81% 75% 120% 69% 90% 91% 1.51x 1.45x 2.12x 7.59x 0.80x 2.32x 2.39x 2.81x 8.40x 1.03x 2.6% 1.9% 1.8% 7.6% 0.6% 1705% 66% 12% 5% -6%
Super Regionals
ALLY 7.1x 8.9x 8.9x 14.4x 6.6x 80% 80% 76% 44% 58% 54% 0.80x 0.74x 0.74x 0.96x 0.52x 0.81x 0.74x 0.74x 0.96x 0.52x 2.6% 1.5% 1.5% 2.6% 0.0% - - 11% 16% 4%
BBT 10.6x 12.7x 12.8x 32.4x 6.7x 84% 83% 115% 66% 82% 78% 1.27x 1.13x 1.47x 4.24x 0.70x 2.09x 1.94x 2.08x 4.24x 0.99x 3.6% 2.7% 3.0% 11.7% 1.7% 797% 77% 15% 4% -8%
COF 6.9x 9.5x 10.3x 47.9x 6.2x 73% 67% 75% 43% 62% 63% 0.79x 0.84x 1.29x 8.66x 0.20x 1.16x 1.40x 1.94x 8.66x 0.44x 2.0% 1.6% 0.4% 12.4% 0.0% - 107% -4% 5% -7%
CFG 8.0x 13.6x 13.6x 16.8x 7.8x 59% 59% 87% 50% 89% 83% 0.74x 0.76x 0.76x 1.11x 0.52x 1.11x 1.20x 1.20x 1.68x 0.79x 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 3.8% 1.3% - - 27% 6% -5%
CMA 8.7x 14.8x 12.1x 39.5x 4.2x 59% 72% 94% 54% 97% 73% 1.54x 1.11x 1.61x 4.28x 0.45x 1.68x 1.13x 1.64x 4.49x 0.46x 3.7% 1.6% 3.1% 11.7% 0.5% 666% 143% 53% 4% -7%
FITB 8.9x 11.7x 14.3x 38.9x 7.6x 76% 63% 96% 55% 76% 87% 1.07x 1.04x 2.30x 5.99x 0.16x 1.28x 1.39x 2.58x 6.96x 0.27x 3.6% 2.4% 2.1% 9.4% 0.3% 463% 151% 20% 4% -7%
HBAN 8.7x 12.4x 12.4x 43.1x 5.0x 70% 70% 94% 54% 81% 75% 1.30x 1.22x 1.60x 3.54x 0.10x 1.67x 1.42x 1.80x 4.14x 0.28x 4.6% 2.4% 3.2% 36.3% 0.6% 238% 238% 17% 3% -8%
KEY 7.9x 11.7x 11.3x 40.3x 6.2x 68% 70% 86% 49% 76% 69% 1.08x 0.97x 1.50x 3.27x 0.36x 1.34x 1.11x 1.70x 3.56x 0.43x 4.5% 2.0% 3.6% 14.2% 0.4% 85% 169% 7% 1% -10%
MTB 11.1x 14.3x 14.5x 21.4x 8.3x 78% 76% 120% 69% 93% 88% 1.50x 1.33x 1.59x 3.18x 0.65x 2.22x 2.16x 2.22x 4.85x 0.79x 2.6% 2.5% 1.7% 7.7% 0.6% 2698% 129% 22% 7% -4%
PNC 10.6x 12.0x 12.1x 19.8x 6.1x 88% 87% 114% 66% 78% 74% 1.25x 1.04x 1.57x 3.32x 0.54x 1.58x 1.51x 1.91x 7.74x 0.54x 3.2% 2.2% 3.3% 13.0% 0.6% 1006% 126% 31% 2% -9%
RF 8.6x 11.8x 10.5x 30.7x 5.5x 73% 82% 93% 53% 77% 64% 0.97x 0.74x 1.45x 3.08x 0.18x 1.47x 1.17x 1.71x 3.55x 0.33x 4.1% 1.8% 3.2% 16.4% 0.5% 88% 156% 28% 1% -10%
STI 10.0x 12.3x 12.6x 35.3x 5.9x 81% 79% 108% 62% 80% 76% 1.16x 0.86x 1.60x 3.00x 0.25x 1.61x 1.36x 1.87x 3.45x 0.47x 3.5% 1.9% 2.5% 17.6% 0.1% 402% 181% 36% 13% 2%
USB 10.9x 12.7x 12.5x 29.5x 8.6x 86% 88% 118% 68% 83% 76% 1.72x 1.76x 1.91x 6.01x 0.95x 2.21x 2.62x 2.96x 9.24x 0.95x 3.1% 2.3% 2.9% 11.9% 0.7% 2523% 114% 7% 5% -6%
WFC 9.7x 11.7x 12.5x 20.9x 5.2x 83% 78% 105% 60% 76% 76% 1.27x 1.34x 2.25x 4.55x 0.75x 1.52x 1.93x 2.47x 9.65x 1.09x 3.7% 2.7% 2.8% 11.2% 0.6% 1756% 78% -12% 4% -7%
Super Regionals 9.1x 12.1x 12.2x 30.8x 6.4x 76% 75% 99% 57% 79% 74% 1.17x 1.06x 1.55x 3.94x 0.45x 1.55x 1.51x 1.92x 5.23x 0.60x 3.5% 2.1% 2.5% 12.9% 0.6% 975% 139% 19% 5% -6%
Large-Cap 9.3x 12.0x 12.3x 29.7x 5.9x 78% 76% 100% 58% 78% 74% 1.19x 1.06x 1.58x 4.54x 0.46x 1.59x 1.52x 1.94x 5.57x 0.61x 3.2% 1.9% 2.3% 12.7% 0.5% 1124% 111% 19% 6% -5%
SPX 16.1x 15.3x 16.5x 28.5x 11.0x 105% 98% 3.35x 2.58x 2.78x 5.17x 1.54x 3.35x 2.58x 2.78x 5.17x 1.54x 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.1% 746% 150% 36% 11%
Priced March 22, 2019. Note: ALLY and CFG data is from the start of trading in 2014.
Source: Barclays Research and Refinitiv Jason M. Goldberg, CFA I Managing Director
Recent performance
Macro headlines (Rates, China, Brexit, etc.) have increased bank stock volatility
U.S. Large-
Cap Banks
Heat Map
Priced March 22, 2019.

Source: Barclays Research and Refinitiv
2019 Bank Stock Outlook

2019 Outlook
We are constructive on the U.S. Large-Cap bank stocks for 2019
Bank Stock Outlook Current Valuation
As detailed on the next 6 pages, our positive thesis is The group is trading at:
predicated on 6 factors: • 9.3x forward EPS, a 25% discount to history
i. continued earnings/book value growth • 58% P/E relative to the S&P 500, a 17-year low
ii. active capital management • 1.6x tangible book, though historically a 15.75% ROTCE
iii. ‘regulatory finalization’ which was reported in 4Q18 (& should build off of in 2019)
iv. expanding benefit from leveraging technology/economies has equated to 2.3x
of scale • all-in pro forma yield approaching 11% (7%+ buyback, 3%+
v. increased defensiveness dividend)
vi. attractive valuation
2019 EPS Outlook 1Q19 EPS Outlook
We expect continued EPS growth in 2019, reflecting: However, results in 1Q19 will be adversely impacted by:
• modest loan growth (though broad-based) • two fewer days weighing on net interest income
• stabilizing net interest margins (flat curve hurts but betas low) • reduced mortgage originations
• higher fee income • the spillover effect of 4Q18’s equity market sell-off
• positive operating leverage • seasonally elevated expenses (comp awards & payroll taxes)
• higher loan loss provision from historically low levels though • lack of equity grant tax benefits that aided 1Q17 and 1Q18
only a modest increase in NCOs • lower y-o-y trading revenues and challenged ECM amid
• higher tax rates volatile markets and SEC shutdown
• active share repurchase and reduced capital ratios
Source: Barclays Research
 Continued EPS and book value growth
We expect high single digit EPS growth in 2019 despite a 25% jump in the provision
2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2019 Outlook
INCOME STATEMENT
Earnings Equation
Revenue 0% 3% 4% 7% 4% 3% We expect continued EPS growth with modest revenue growth…
Median Large-Cap Net interest income 0% 2% 6% 9% 5% 4% as NII could increase…
Bank, Average earning assets 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% with modest balance sheet growth …
2014 – 2019E Net interest margin (bp chg) (15) (9) 6 14 10 4 and more modest NIM expansion…
Loan loss provision -33% 24% 26% -5% -8% 24% and despite a higher provision (off a low base)…
Fee income -1% 2% 1% 5% 3% 2% even if fee income growth remains modest…
Expenses -2% 1% 3% 4% 3% 1% as operating leverage should continue…
Pre-provision net revenue 4% 3% 7% 11% 8% 6% driving PPNR higher, while…
Preferred dividends 15% 22% 7% 8% 0% 0% evolving rules could slow preferred issuance…
Net income 4% 1% 1% 6% 28% 1% resulting in continued net income growth, coupled with…
Shares -1% -2% -3% -3% -4% -5% very active share repurchase…
EPS 3% 2% 2% 10% 42% 8% could result in high single-digit EPS growth….
Tangible book 8% 6% 6% 5% 5% 6% and continued tangible book value expansion.
RATIOS
ROA 0.93% 0.98% 0.93% 1.02% 1.27% 1.26% We expect ROA to remain improved…
ROE 9.24% 8.62% 8.04% 9.05% 11.91% 11.62% as both ROE…
ROTCE 11.70% 12.10% 11.10% 12.56% 16.81% 16.02% and ROTCE have returned to healthy levels…
NIM 3.02% 2.88% 2.86% 3.02% 3.16% 3.17% even if the pace of NIM expansion slows…
Operating leverage 1.66% 0.69% 1.51% 2.67% 1.84% 1.91% as positive operating leverage continues (less branches, rules)…
Efficiency ratio 63.7% 63.7% 63.7% 60.5% 59.4% 57.8% driving the efficiency ratio toward the mid-50%'s…
NCO ratio 0.35% 0.28% 0.33% 0.27% 0.27% 0.35% and NCOs, while higher, remain below historical levels…
Tax rate 28.0% 29.0% 29.8% 30.2% 19.6% 21.7% and tax rates level off
 A continuation of active capital management
We expect dividend increases and share repurchase for all this year
Adj. Capital
Capital Above/Below Estimated CECL Potential 25bp
Regulatory Min CET1 Ratio (4Q18) Company Target Above/Below
Company Target Impact CCyB Impact
Company Target
Company's Midpoint/ Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars
Current and Fed FSB (M1) Standard Advanced Lower
Target Our Est ($bn)
in %
($bn)
in %
($bn)
in %
($bn)
in %
ALLY 7.0% 9.4% - 9.4% 9.0% 9.0% $0.6 0.40% $0.5 0.35% $0.1 0.06%
Illustrative BAC 9.5% 8.5% 11.6% 11.9% 11.6% 10.0-10.5% 10.3% $20.0 1.39% $1.9 0.13% $3.6 0.25% $14.5 1.01%
Capital Ratios BBT 7.0% 10.2% - 10.2% 9.5-9.75% 9.6% $1.0 0.56% $0.3 0.17% $0.7 0.39%
BK 8.5% 8.0% 11.8% 10.6% 10.6% N/A 10.0% $1.1 0.64% $0.0 0.01% $0.4 0.25% $0.6 0.38%
C 10.0% 9.0% 11.9% 12.3% 11.9% 11.5% 11.5% $4.8 0.41% $1.9 0.17% $2.9 0.25% ($0.1) 0.00%
CFG 7.0% 10.6% - 10.6% 10.0% 10.0% $0.9 0.63% $0.3 0.22% $0.6 0.42%
CMA 7.0% 11.1% - 11.1% 9.5-10.0% 9.8% $0.9 1.37% $0.1 0.16% $0.8 1.21%
COF 7.0% 11.2% - 11.2% 11.0% 11.0% $0.6 0.21% $3.4 1.16% $0.7 0.25% ($3.5) -1.20%
FITB 7.0% 10.2% - 10.2% 9.0% 9.0% $1.5 1.24% $0.3 0.21% $1.3 1.02%
GS 10.0% 8.5% 13.3% 13.1% 13.1% N/A 11.0% $11.7 2.10% $0.0 0.00% $1.4 0.25% $10.3 1.85%
HBAN 7.0% 9.7% - 9.7% 9.0-10.0% 9.5% $0.1 0.15% $0.2 0.21% ($0.1) -0.06%
JPM 10.5% 9.5% 12.0% 12.8% 12.0% 11.0-12.0% 11.5% $7.7 0.50% $3.7 0.24% $3.8 0.25% $0.2 0.01%
KEY 7.0% 9.9% - 9.9% 9.0-9.5% 9.3% $0.8 0.67% $0.2 0.17% $0.6 0.50%
MS 10.0% 8.0% 16.8% 17.4% 16.8% N/A 10.5% $23.3 6.32% $0.0 0.01% $0.9 0.25% $22.4 6.06%
MTB 7.0% 10.0% - 10.0% 9.0-9.5% 9.3% $0.8 0.78% $0.2 0.25% $0.5 0.53%
NTRS 7.0% 12.9% 13.4% 12.9% N/A 10.0% $1.9 2.90% $0.0 0.03% $0.2 0.25% $1.8 2.62%
PNC 7.0% 9.6% 10.9% 9.6% 8.5-9.0% 8.8% $2.6 0.83% $0.6 0.19% $0.8 0.25% $1.2 0.38%
RF 7.0% 10.1% - 10.1% 9.5% 9.5% $0.6 0.61% $0.2 0.19% $0.4 0.42%
STI 7.0% 9.5% - 9.5% 8.5-9.0% 8.8% $1.4 0.75% $0.4 0.21% $1.0 0.54%
STT 8.5% 8.0% 11.5% 11.9% 11.5% 10.0% 10.0% $1.5 1.48% $0.0 0.01% $0.3 0.25% $1.2 1.22%
USB 7.0% 9.1% 12.0% 9.1% 8.5% 8.5% $2.3 0.60% $0.9 0.25% $1.0 0.25% $0.4 0.10%
WFC 9.0% 8.5% 11.7% 12.3% 11.7% 10.25-10.5% 10.0% $21.6 1.73% $2.3 0.19% $3.1 0.25% $16.1 1.29%
Median 7.0% 8.5% 10.88% 10.6% 9.6% 9.9% 0.71% 0.19% 0.25% 0.46%
Sum $107.7 $17.6 $19.1 $71.0
Source: Barclays Research, Company reports, and Federal Reserve

 We believe we are approaching “regulatory finalization”
We expect the regulatory regime to be basically finalized this year
Regulatory
Landscape
Update
(1) The Basel III leverage ratio framework finalized by the BCBS is most closely aligned with the current U.S. Basel III SLR
FRTB = Fundamental Review of the Trading Book ; SCCL = Single Counterparty Credit Limit. Source: Barclays Research and Citigroup
 Technology and economies of scale
We expect technology and economies of scale to increasingly be a differentiator
Efficiency Ratio, by Asset Size Group Capital Ratio, by Asset Size Group
Year Average Year Average
90 15%
80 13%
70 11%
60 9%
7%
50
5%
40
3%
30
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Assets >$250bn Assets $10bn-$250bn Assets $1bn-$10bn
Assets >$250bn Assets $10bn-$250bn Assets $1bn-$10bn
Assets $100mn-$1bn Assets <$100mn
Assets $100mn-$1bn Assets <$100mn
Digital Users vs. Deposit Market Share 2019E Technology Spend

$40 $bn
Digital Users (mn) U.S. Deposit Market
140
Sum of BAC, JPM and WFC Share
37% $35
120 36% $30

1.5x
100 35% $25
80 34% $20
60 33%
$15
40 32%
$10
20 31%
$5
0 30%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 $0
Online Mobile Deposit Market Share Top 4 banks Next 16 banks
Source: Barclays Research, FDIC, Company reports, and S&P Global Market Intelligence
 Banks are defensive and more resilient
We believe the group is more defensive than investors appreciate
TCE and CET1 Capital Ratios Loan/Deposit Ratio vs. R/E Loans
Loan/Deposits RE%Loans
100% 60%
90%
80% 50%
70%
40%
60%
50%
30%
40%
30% 20%
20%
10% 10%
1934 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014
Loans/Deposits Real Estate
Changes in Consumer Delinquency Rates Post Crisis Changes

• Revised risk-based capital standards (Basel 3)
Unsecured
Mortgage Auto Credit • Introduction of CCAR, SLR, TLAC, LCR, G-SIB surcharge,
Year Personal
Loans Loans Cards and Volcker rule (and potentially NSFR) for the largest
Loans banks
2Q08 3.87% 1.26% 2.71% 4.54% • Elimination of ABCP, SIV, subprime ABS CDO, off-balance
sheet securitizations, etc.
Peak Level 7.21% 1.64% 3.19% 5.05%
• Requirement to clear most swaps using a central
2Q18 1.67% 1.22% 1.53% 3.21% counterparty; changes in tri-party repo market clearing to
reduce intraday credit; single counterparty credit limits
Source: Barclays Research, FDIC, and TransUnion
 We find valuations attractive even if we are late in the cycle
Bank valuations appear cheap on several metrics
Large-Cap Banks Forward P/E and rel. to SPX Large-Cap Banks P/TBV and rel. to SPX
P/TBV Relative
Forward P/E Relative
20x 120% 5.0x 150%
18x 110% 130%

4.0x
16x 100%
110%
14x 90% 3.0x
90%
12x 80%
2.0x
10x 70% 70%
8x 60% 1.0x
50%
6x 50%
0.0x 30%
4x 40%
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Large-Cap Banks Median P/TBV
Large-Cap Banks Median P/E
Relative to SPX Median Relative
Relative to SPX Median Relative
Industry ROTCE vs. P/TBV (1984 – 4Q18) Large-Cap Banks Divd Yield and rel. to SPX
y = 35.581x2 + 2.286x + 1.0244 Div Yld Relative
4.0x P/TBV
R² = 0.5762 8% 300%
3.5x
7%
250%
3.0x 6%
200%
2.5x 5%
4% 150%
2.0x
3%
1.5x 100%
2%
1.0x 50%
1%
0.5x 0% 0%
ROTCE 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
0.0x Large-Cap Banks Median Div Yld
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Relative to SPX Median Relative
4Q17 ROA and ROTCE are adjusted for one-time income tax effects.
Source: Barclays Research, Refinitiv, and FDIC
Two-page executive summary (page 1)
Let us know if you would like a 17” by 21” poster version of these figures Jason M. Goldberg, CFA I Managing Director
Two-page executive summary (page 2)
Let us know if you would like a 17” by 21” poster version of these figures Jason M. Goldberg, CFA I Managing Director
Bank stock pushback
There are several reasons investors have cited for not wanting to own banks
• Below average loan growth – loan growth is still positive and broad-based and H.8 C&I/CRE loan
Top Reasons growth has accelerated of late
for Investor • A flatter than anticipated yield curve – but deposit betas have outperformed expectations
Pushback
• Concerns over global growth amid tariffs/trade war headlines, instability in emerging markets, and
(with our
uncertainties with Brexit, China, etc. – isn’t there always some region to worry about?
responses)
• A belief that we are in the final stage of the current expansion cycle – March is expected to mark
the 117th consecutive month of GDP growth vs. U.S. record of 120, though Australia is past 430
months
• A belief that bank stocks can’t work when net charge-offs eventually increase – looking at the past
81 years, in years when NCOs increased 20bps or less, bank stocks outperformed the S&P 500
half the time and underperformed half the time
• An increasingly competitive environment (from CLOs, BDCs, insurers, fintech, etc.) and concerns
over increased corporate leverage – a great deal is funded by non-banks
• Uncertainty over the adoption of CECL – it’s a 2020 event and does not change actual loan losses
• Worries House flip will hinder pro-growth policies and regulatory changes – House Democrats
cannot unilaterally reverse tax cut nor do much about regulatory changes
• A lack of catalysts – Capital return, regulatory finalization and consolidation all expected
U.S. economic outlook
Expectations are for ~2% GDP growth in 2019, 2020 and 2021, with a bias for higher rates
Note: All numbers expressed in % q/q saar unless otherwise specified. Bolded fed funds indicates quarter of projected rate increase. The budget balance is fiscal year.
Source: BEA, BLS, Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury, and “March FOMC: We now see no hikes through 2020 on inflation tolerance” (March 21, 2019). Jason M. Goldberg, CFA I Managing Director
Dates to watch
Upcoming Bank-related Dates
April 5 – Largest banks must submit CCAR 2019 capital plans
Apr 12 – 1Q19 EPS seasons begins with JPM, WFC and PNC
Apr 12 – Brexit if UK parliament does not accept existing deal
May 1 – FOMC press conference
May 22 – Brexit if UK parliament accepts existing deal
May 23–26 – The European Union will hold elections to the European Parliament
Jun 19 – FOMC press conference
Jun 30 (or before) – Fed to release stress test results
Jul 31 – FOMC press conference
Sep 12 – USB Investor Day in NYC (every 3 years; estimated)
Sep 18 – FOMC press conference
Sep 30 – U.S. ends its fiscal year with a budget deficit expected to approximate $1trn
Oct 30 – FOMC press conference
Nov 1 – A new president of the European Central Bank will succeed Mario Draghi and begin a 5-year term
Nov 5 – U.S. elections will choose 3 state governors and various state and local officials
Dec 11 – FOMC press conference
2019 Barclays Conferences

May 14-15 – U.S. Financials in London Sep 9-11 – Global Financials in NYC
Ongoing Dates
Every day – Interest rates, market indices, D.C. tweets/chatter
Every Monday around noon – National deposit rates for 22 categories
Every Friday at 4:15pm – Weekly bank balance sheet data (H.8)
~15th of every month – Master trust credit quality data
Source: Barclays Research, Bloomberg
The sky is not falling
Guess The Date of Each Headline Answer Key

Earnings Drivers for 2019

The earnings equation
PPNR growth will eventually need to compensate for higher loan loss provisions
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2019 Outlook Comments
Net interest income          Modest loan growth, NIM beginning to level off
Loan growth          Low- to mid-single digit growth continues
Earnings C&I          Growth continues aided by lower payoffs
Equation R/E          Booking jumbos, H/E run-off ebbs but CRE competitive
Consumer          Credit card, auto and other all growing
Deposit growth          Overall balance growth though NIBD pressured
Net interest margin          Yield curve challenging but betas stayed low
Fee income          Trends expected to be varied

Capital markets fees          Increased market volatility and continued IPO/M&A activity
Asset mgmt & trust          Improved equity markets would help
Mortgage banking          Purchase up, refis lower, GOS leveling off
Service charges          More products to more customers
Credit/debit card fees          Growth despite reward, renewal pressures
Expenses          Despite revenue improvement, costs remain a focus

Personnel          Inflation pushing up costs, tech people expensive
Environmental          Past regulatory/legal humps
Other          Retail distribution savings support tech spend
PPNR          NII, fees aid revenue growth with positive leverage

Loan loss provision          After a pause, provisions set to increase off a low base
Tax rate          Stability post 2018's corporate tax reform boost
Preferred dividends          Improvements in capital calculations could limit issuance
Net income          Higher PPNR mitigated by increased provision

Shares          Very active share repurchase should continue
EPS          Revenue growth and lower shares offset higher provision

Dividend Payout ratio          Increasing as earnings, payout ratios increase
Legend:  Up double-digits  Up single-digits  Relatively stable  Down single-digits  Down double-digits

Growth
The median bank should continue to produced consistent book value growth, EPS improvement
Revenue & Expense Growth EPS Growth vs. Loan Demand
40%
8%
20%
6%
0%
4%
-20%
2%
0% -40%
-2% -60%
-4% -80%
-6% -100%
2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 1Q97 1Q00 1Q03 1Q06 1Q09 1Q12 1Q15 1Q18
Operating leverage Revenue growth Expense growth Group Median EPS growth (%) Net % Banks reporting Stonger Loan Demand (9mo forward)
EPS Growth Post Crisis Tangible Book Value Growth

Low rates, Higher interest
Regulatory 14%
rates, then
Financial Crisis Recovery
adjustment reduced taxes 12%
40%
35% 10%
30%
8%
25%
20% 16% 6%
15% 12%
10%
8% 8%
10% 6% 4%
5% 3% 2% 2%
0% 2%
-5%
0%
-10%
2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E
2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E
Source: Barclays Research, Federal Reserve, and S&P Global Market Intelligence
Loans – overall
Loan growth is below average but typically accelerates when the curve flattens
Loans & Leases, Weekly Loan Growth Seasonality
Year-end 2.5%
=100
107
106 2.0%
105
104 1.5%
103
102 1.0%
101
0.5%
100
99
0.0%
98
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
0 13 26 39 52
week Historical Average Most Recent Period
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Loan Growth vs. GDP/Yield Curve Annual Loan Growth (by bank size)
Growth Spread (nverted) Total Loan growth
15% -150bp
40%
-100bp
10% 30%
-50bp
0bp 20%
5%
50bp 10%
100bp
0% 0%
150bp
-10%
-5% 200bp
250bp -20%
-10% 300bp -30%

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Loan Growth Nominal GDP Growth (1yr forward) 2yr/10yr Spread Small Banks Foreign Banks Large Banks
Source: Barclays Research, Federal Reserve, Haver Analytics, and Refinitiv

Loans – by type
Loans growth has also been broad-based while pricing appears to have firmed
Loan Growth Outlook, 2015-19E Loan
Loan Growth
Growth by Type
Rates by Type
12% 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 20-yr Avg 30%
10%
8% 20%
6%
10%
4%
2% 0%
0%
-2% -10%
-4%
-20%
-6% 1Q84 1Q88 1Q92 1Q96 1Q00 1Q04 1Q08 1Q12 1Q16
-8%
C&I (21%) CRE (22%) Mtge (21%) H/E (4%) Card (9%) Auto (5%) Total (100%) RE Loan Growth C&I Loan Growth Consumer Loan Growth
% of Banks Tightening Standards NIM vs. Net % of Banks Increasing Spreads of Loan
Rates over Banks’ Cost of Funds
100%
100% 5.0%
80%
80%
60% 60% 4.5%
40% 40%
4.0%
20%
20% 0%
3.5%
0% -20%
-40% 3.0%
-20%
-60%
-40% -80% 2.5%
1Q90 1Q92 1Q94 1Q96 1Q98 1Q00 1Q02 1Q04 1Q06 1Q08 1Q10 1Q12 1Q14 1Q16 1Q18 1Q90 1Q94 1Q98 1Q02 1Q06 1Q10 1Q14 1Q18
C&I CRE Mortgage Credit cards Net Interest Margin (right)

Loans to Large & Medium-sized Firms (1yr forward, left)
Loans to Small Firms (1yr forward, left)
Source: Barclays Research and Federal Reserve
Loans – mix ranking
Be mindful of each bank's areas of focus as the credit cycle begins to evolve
Loans by Type as a Percent of Total Loans, 4Q18
C&I Loans CRE Loans Residential RE Consumer Leases & Other
% of Loans % of Loans % of Loans % of Loans % of Loans
0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
CMA MTB WFC COF STT

FITB BBT USB ALLY BK
KEY CMA CFG C GS
PNC KEY RF HBAN NTRS
ALLY RF JPM CFG MS
CFG PNC HBAN STI C
HBAN CFG BBT JPM JPM
RF HBAN BAC USB BAC
BAC WFC STI BAC WFC
USB STI MTB BBT RF
STI USB FITB FITB KEY
C COF NTRS PNC PNC
MTB NTRS PNC MS CMA
BBT JPM MS WFC BBT
GS FITB KEY MTB STI
WFC MS BK RF USB
JPM C&I BAC Multi-family ALLY Mortgage KEY Credit Card FITB Lease
STT GS C GS COF
C&D HEL Auto Other
NTRS BK GS BK HBAN
Other Consumer
COF ALLY Non-Owner CMA CMA MTB
Occupied CRE
MS C Owner Occupied COF NTRS CFG
BK STT CRE STT STT ALLY
Source: Barclays Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence

Loans – C&I
C&I lending accelerated into year-end 2018 and has continued into 2019
C&IC&I,
Loans, Weekly
Weekly by Year
by Year C&I Lending vs. Business Inventories
Year-end
Business Inv C&I Loan Growth
=100
112 Growth
15% 25%
110 20%
10%
108 15%
10%
106 5%
5%
104 0% 0%
102 -5%
-5%
100 -10%
-15%
98 -10%
-20%
96 -15% -25%
0 13 26 39 52 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017
week
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Business Inventories Growth (6mo forward) C&I Loan Growth
Net % of Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for C&I Net % of Banks Tightening Standards for C&I Loans
Loans vs. C&I Loan Growth vs. C&I Delinquency and NCO Rates
60% 30% 100% 7%
40% 20% 80% 6%
20% 10% 60% 5%
0% 0% 40% 4%
-20% -10% 20% 3%
-40% -20% 0% 2%
-20% 1%
-60% -30%
-40% 0%
-80% -40%
1Q90 1Q94 1Q98 1Q02 1Q06 1Q10 1Q14 1Q18
1Q90 1Q94 1Q98 1Q02 1Q06 1Q10 1Q14 1Q18
C&I Delinquency Rate (right)
C&I Loan Growth (right) C&I Charge-Off Rate (right)
Loans to Large & Medium-sized Firms (1yr forward, left) Loans to Large & Medium-sized Firms (1yr forward, left)
Loans to Small Firms (1yr forward, left) Loans to Small Firms (1yr forward, left)
Source: Barclays Research, Federal Reserve, and Haver Analytics
Loans – CRE
CRE loan growth was tepid last year but has improved YTD with competitive pressures easing
CREC&I,
Loans, Weekly
Weekly by Year
by Year CRE
C&I Lending
Lending vs.
vs. CRE Development
Business Inventories
Year-end
CRE Dev Growth CRE Loan Growth
=100
110 40% 20%
30% 15%
108
20%
10%
106 10%
5%
0%
104 0%
-10%
102 -5%
-20%
-30% -10%
100
-40% -15%
98 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
0 13 26 39 52 CRE Development Growth (12mo forward) CRE Loan Growth at All Banks
week
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CRE Loan Growth at Large Banks
Net % of Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for CRE Net % of Banks Tightening Standards for CRE Loans
Loans vs. CRE Loan Growth vs. Delinquency and NCO Rates
30% 60% 100% 14%
20% 40% 80% 12%
10% 20% 60% 10%
0% 0% 40% 8%
-10% -20% 20% 6%
-20% -40% 0% 4%
-30% -60% -20% 2%
-40% 0%
-40% -80%
1Q90 1Q94 1Q98 1Q02 1Q06 1Q10 1Q14 1Q18
1Q95 1Q99 1Q03 1Q07 1Q11 1Q15 1Q19
CRE Delinquency Rate (right)
CRE Loan Growth (left)
CRE Charge-Off Rate (right)
% of Banks Reporting Stronger Demand (1yr forward, right)
% of Banks Tightening Stds for CRE Loans (1yr forward, left)
Loans – consumer
Consumer loan growth is seasonally weak to start the year but should improve in 2Q
Consumer
C&I,Loans,
WeeklyWeekly
by Yearby Year Consumer
C&I LendingLending vs. Employment
vs. Business Inventories
Year-end
=100 Empl Growth Consumer Lending
108
6.0% 20%
106 15%
4.0%
104 10%
2.0%
102 5%
0.0% 0%
100
-5%
98 -2.0%
-10%
96 -4.0%
-15%
94 -6.0% -20%
0 13 26 39 52 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
week
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Nonfarm Employment Growth (6mo forward) Consumer Loan Growth
Net % of Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for Net % of Banks Tightening Standards on Credit Card
net % of banks
Consumer Loans (by type) Loans vs. Delinquency & NCO Rates
reporting stronger 80% 18%
40% 70%
demand 16%
60%
30% 14%
50%
40% 12%
20%
30% 10%
10% 20% 8%
10% 6%
0% 0%
4%
-10%
-10% -20% 2%
-30% 0%
-20% 1Q96 1Q00 1Q04 1Q08 1Q12 1Q16 1Q20
2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 Card Delinquency Rate (right)
Credit cards Autos Consumer ex. Credit cards and Autos Card Charge-Off Rate (right)
% Banks Tightening Stds on Credit Card Loans (1yr forward)
Loans – residential real estate and other
Banks have been originating/keeping quality mortgages; still avoiding subprime
Residential R/E, Weekly
C&I, Weekly by Year
by Year All Other,
C&I Lending vs. Weekly byInventories
Business Year
Year-end Year-end
=100 =100
104 120
103
115
102
101 110
100 105
99
100
98
97 95
0 13 26 39 52 0 13 26 39 52
week week
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Resi Mortgage Lending Standards Net % of Tightening Standards on Mortgages vs.

Net %age of Banks
Delinquency & NCO Rates
100% 100% 12%
80%
80% 10%
60%
40% 60% 8%
20%
40% 6%
0%
-20% 20% 4%
-40%
0% 2%
-60%
-80% -20% 0%
1Q00 1Q02 1Q04 1Q06 1Q08 1Q10 1Q12 1Q14 1Q16 1Q18 1Q90 1Q93 1Q96 1Q99 1Q02 1Q05 1Q08 1Q11 1Q14 1Q17 1Q20
Tightening Standards for Mortgage Loans Reporting Stronger Demand for Mortgage Loans Resi Delinquency Rate (right)
Resi Charge-Off Rate (right)
% of Banks Tightening Stds on Mortgage (1yr forward, left)
Net interest margin – performance
Watching the Fed and yield curve, though balance sheet mix is just as important
Net Interest Margin vs. 10yr Treasury NIM vs. Loans/AEA & Loans/Deposits
NIM 10yr Trate NIM Loan Ratios
5% 16% 5% 100%
14% 90%
4% 80%
12% 4%
70%
3% 10% 60%
8% 3% 50%
2% 6% 40%
30%
4% 2%
1% 20%
2% 10%
0% 0% 1% 0%
1934 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014 1934 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014
Net Interest Margin 10-yr Treasury yield Net Interest Margin Loans/Deposits Loans/AEA
Net Interest Spread and NIBF Net Interest Margin vs. Yield Curve
5.0% NIM Spread
5.0% 300bp
4.0% 250bp
4.5%
200bp
3.0%
4.0% 150bp
100bp
2.0%
3.5% 50bp
1.0% 0bp
3.0%
-50bp
0.0% 2.5% -100bp
1934 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014 1Q84 1Q88 1Q92 1Q96 1Q00 1Q04 1Q08 1Q12 1Q16
Net Interest Spread Impact of NIBF Net interest margin 2yr/10yr Spread
Source: Barclays Research, FDIC, Federal Reserve, and Refinitiv

Net interest margin – interest rate sensitivity
Banks are asset sensitive though we expect that to decline in the coming quarters
10yr Treasury Yield (1800-Current) Deposit Mix
18% Deposit Growth NIB Dep % Dep
16% 12% 26%
14% 10% 24%
12% 8% 22%
10% 6%
20%
8% 4%
18%
6% 2%
0% 16%
4%
-2% 14%
2%
-4% 12%
0% 1Q84 1Q88 1Q92 1Q96 1Q00 1Q04 1Q08 1Q12 1Q16
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
10yr Trate Noninterest-bearing Deposits % Deposits Deposit Growth
Percent Asset/Liability-Sensitive Change in Asset/Liability-Sensitivity

100% 100%
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
2Q04 2Q05 2Q06 2Q07 2Q08 2Q09 2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18
2Q04 2Q05 2Q06 2Q07 2Q08 2Q09 2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 Decrease Asset Sensitivity / Increase Liability Sensitivity
Asset-Sensitive Liability-Sensitive Neutral Increase Asset Sensitivity / Decrease Liability Sensitivity
No Change
Source: Barclays Research, Refinitiv, S&P Global Market Intelligence, and Company reports
The Fed still believes the next move is higher, just not this year
Barclays
Dove-
Hawk
Chart
Source: Barclays Economics Research All we need is just a little patience (1/11/19)
The focus shifted from this slide (rates up 100bps)….
6%
EPS Impact 5%
from 100bps 4%
Parallel
3%
Increase in
2%
Rates at 4Q18
1%
0%
-1%
BAC CFG RF HBAN C CMA STT NTRS BK PNC ALLY WFC BBT KEY STI JPM MTB USB FITB COF
Impact to NIM
from 100bps
Parallel
Increase in
Rates at 4Q18
Based on 2018 10-K scenario analysis, as adjusted. Charts exclude GS and MS.
Source: Barclays Research and Company reports
To this one (rates down 100bps), in a very short the period of time
0%
EPS Impact -1%

-2%
from 100bps
-3%
Parallel -4%
Decrease in -5%
-6%
Rates at 4Q18
-7%
-8%
-9%
-10%
ALLY STT CFG WFC STI COF USB BK C PNC JPM KEY MTB NTRS FITB HBAN BBT RF BAC CMA
0.00%
Impact to NIM
from 100bps -0.05%
Parallel -0.10%
Decrease in
Rates at 4Q18 -0.15%
-0.20%
-0.25%
ALLY CFG WFC STT C STI COF BK USB PNC JPM NTRS KEY FITB HBAN MTB RF BBT BAC CMA
Based on 2018 10-K scenario analysis, as adjusted. Charts exclude GS and MS.
Deposits – growth
Deposits are garnering increased attention as rates move and the Fed pulls back QE
Liquid Assets vs. Deposits vs. Deposit Deposit
Growth Growth
% Assets Dep /Liab $ trn growth
45% & Lns/Dep 105%
$14 30%
40% 100%
$12 25%
35% 95%
20%
30% 90% $10
15%
25% 85% $8
10%
20% 80% $6
15% 75% 5%
$4
10% 70% 0%
5% 65% $2 -5%
0% 60% $0 -10%
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 1934 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014
Securities % of Assets Cash % of Assets
Deposits % of Liabilities Loans / Deposits Noninterest Bearing Deposits Interest-Bearing Deposits Total Deposit Growth
Deposit Rates vs. Fed Funds Loans vs. Deposits

Rates $bn
$14,000
3.00%
$12,000
$2.8trn
2.50%
$10,000
2.00%
$8,000
1.50%
$6,000
1.00%
$4,000
0.50%
$2,000
0.00%
$0
May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Savings Interest Checking Money Market <100M
12 month CD <100M Effective Fed Funds Rate Deposits Loans and leases
Source: Barclays Research, FDIC, and Federal Reserve

Deposits – beta/mix
Deposit betas continue to be below the prior cycle
Current vs. Historical Deposit Beta
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
ALLY BK COF CFG USB C FITB WFC KEY NTRS HBAN PNC JPM STI BAC BBT CMA MTB RF STT
3Q15-4Q18 1Q04-4Q06
NA for ALLY and COF for 2004-06 period
Deposit Beta, 1Q04-4Q06 vs. 3Q15-4Q18 Quarter and Cumulative Deposit Betas
4.00% Cost of interest -bearing deposits Deposit Beta Avg Fed Funds
90% 6%
3.50% 80%
60% beta 70%
5%
3.00%
60% 4%
2.50% 50%
3%
2.00% 40%
30% 2%
1.50%
20%
1Q04-4Q06 1%
1.00% 10%
28% beta 3Q15-4Q18
0% 0%
0.50%
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
Fed Funds
0.00%
0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% Quarter beta Cum. Beta Avg. Fed Funds
Source: Barclays Research, FDIC, S&P Global Market Intelligence, and Company reports
And have the potential to stay that way
Beta Factors Cost of IBD and Loan/Deposit Ratio
Why betas could be lower than last cycle: Loans/Deposits Cos of Int-Bearing
• Stronger customer ties (free mobile banking, annoying to switch bill pay/cash Deposits
140% 2.50%
management, etc.) 120%
• Fewer ‘bad actors’ (WM, CFC, IMB all gone) 2.00%
100%
• Record deposit levels (loan/deposit ratios at 71% vs. historical average at 83%) 1.50%
80%
• Subdued loan growth (+2% of late vs. +5% historically)
60% 1.00%
Why betas could be higher than last cycle:
• DDA at a relatively higher contribution and CDs at a relative low and the possibility 40%
0.50%
this mix normalizes 20%
• Impact of LCR and the increased importance of liquidity 0% 0.00%

• Tech advancements (easier to move money, compare rates)
• Reversal of quantitative easing
Loan/Deposit Ratio Cost of Int-Bearing Deposits
• Reg Q repeal – can now pay interest on commercial deposits
Deposit Mix by Type Deposit Mix by Line of Business

100% 100%
90%
80% 80%
70%
60% 60%
50%
40%
40%
30%
20%
20%
0% 10%
0%
KEY COF CFG STI PNC RF HBAN WFC FITB BAC BBT MTB JPM USB CMA C
Demand NOW/Trans MMDA & Savings
Retail Corporate Wealth/Other
Time Deposits =<$250K Jumbo Time Deposits >$250K Foreign
Source: Barclays Research, Company Reports, and S&P Global Market Intelligence
Here is a rough sketch of several deposit metrics
(a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h)
Beta Loan/ Demand Current Percent Beta to Beta to Market Urban/ Total Total
Scorecard Ticker Deposits Deposits Cost Retail Date History HHI Rural Total Rank Rank
(like golf, BAC 3 5 13 10 11 5 5 12 64 8 KEY 1
lower is BBT 12 4 9 11 13 12 6 2 69 10 COF 2
better) C 2 14 2 16 4 6 1 15 60 6 C 3
We consolidate the data on the
prior two slides, with some
other metrics, and rank the
CFG 14 12 3 3 2 1 12 11 58 4 USB 4 banks. This is a very rough
CMA 11 1 14 15 14 15 9 13 92 16 WFC 5 guide of who might see
relatively higher or lower
COF 16 10 1 2 1 4 2 16 52 2 BAC 6 deposit betas from here.
FITB 8 11 4 9 5 10 14 4 65 9 HBAN 7 Notes:

HBAN 10 6 8 7 8 8 13 3 63 7 CFG 8 (a): lower loan/deposit ratio
better;
JPM 1 7 12 13 10 13 4 10 70 11 BBT 9 (b) more demand deposits
better;
KEY 7 15 6 1 7 2 7 6 51 1 JPM 9 (c) the higher the cost the
better because of others
MTB 15 3 15 12 14 7 8 14 88 14 PNC 11 playing catch-up; (d) more
PNC 6 9 7 5 9 11 15 8 70 11 FITB 12 retail customer deposits better;
(e) the higher the beta to date
RF 9 2 16 6 16 16 16 1 82 13 RF 13 the better;
(f) the closer to one’s historical
STI 13 16 11 4 11 14 11 9 89 15 MTB 14 beta the better;
USB 5 8 5 14 3 3 10 7 55 3 STI 15 (g) the more concentrated a
market the better;
WFC 4 13 10 8 6 9 3 5 58 4 CMA 16 (h) the more rural a market is
the better
Excludes BK, NTRS and STT as well as ALLY, GS and MS. Source: Barclays Research
Fee income
While market sensitive revenues have been pressured QTD, improvement is expected in 2Q
NIIInterest
Net vs. FeeRevenue
Income Growth
vs. Fee Rates
Growth Fee Income % of Revenues
Growth rate 50%
30% 45%
40%
20% 35%
30%
10% 25%
20%
0%
15%
10%
-10%
5%
0%
-20%
1934 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014
1Q84 1Q88 1Q92 1Q96 1Q00 1Q04 1Q08 1Q12 1Q16
NII Growth Fee Growth Fee Income % Revenue
Investment Banking Fees, 2009-19E Mortgage Originations

$bn Orig ($bn) Refi Share
FICC % IB Rev
$150 65% $4,500 80%
$4,000 70%
$125 60%
$3,500 60%
55%
$100 $3,000
50%
50% $2,500
$75 40%
45% $2,000
30%
$50 $1,500
40% 20%
$1,000
$25 35% 10%
$500
$0 30% $0 0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018A 2019E 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018E
FICC Equities DCM ECM Advisory % FICC Purchase Refinance Refi % Total
Includes MBA projections for 2018E-21E.

Source: Barclays Research, FDIC, Mortgage Bankers Association, and Company reports
Expenses
Operating leverage should persist amid technology lift and regulatory finalization
Efficiency Ratio Positive Operating Leverage Illustration
75% 200 bps of Operating Leverage
What is better… Year 1 Growth Rate Year 2
70% 200bps or Revenue $100 8% $108
65% 300bps of Expenses $55 6% $58
positive OIPP $45 10% $50
60%
operating 300 bps of Operating Leverage
55% leverage? Year 1 Growth Rate Year 2
50% Revenue $100 5% $105
1934 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014 Expenses $55 2% $56
Efficiency Ratio OIPP $45 9% $49
Efficiency Ratio, by Asset Size Group Banks vs. Branches

Year Average
Branches Banks
90
90,000 16,000
80 80,000
14,000
70,000
70
60,000 12,000
60 50,000
10,000
40,000
50 30,000 8,000
20,000
40 6,000
10,000
30 0 4,000
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Assets >$250bn Assets $10bn-$250bn Assets $1bn-$10bn
Assets $100mn-$1bn Assets <$100mn Commercial Bank Branches Commercial Banks
Source: Barclays Research and FDIC
Asset quality
Loan losses are likely to increase, albeit gradually, from levels half their historical average
NCO Ratio 12 years Post Peak Areas of focus
NCO Ratio • Impact of higher rates – increased payments
3.00%
• Auto – extended terms, declining values
2.50%
• Card – growth seasons, indebtedness higher
2.00%
1.50%
• Student – though outside of banking system
1.00%
• Retail – crosses C&I, CRE and CMBS
0.50%
• CRE – multifamily and non-owner occupied
0.00% • C&I – leveraged lending, retail, healthcare, fast casual dining
Peak 1 2
Years Post Peak
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
• Unsecured consumer loans – +70% in 10yrs
1976 1991 2010 • Loans to non-bank fins – rapid growth, CLO
Net Charge-off Ratios by Loan Type Banks Rel. to SPX vs. Change in NCO
Net Charge-offs Bank stocks can work when loan losses are rising, as long as
Historical 4Q18 vs. Historical losses don’t go up a lot. Looking at the past 81 years, in years when
4Q18
Average History Low NCOs declined, bank stocks outperformed the S&P 500 56% of the
Mortgage 0.00% 0.45% 0.0x -0.02% time and underperformed 44%. When they increased but by less than
CRE 0.02% 0.55% 0.0x -0.03% 20bps, it was a 50%/50% split. However, when NCOs rose more than
C&I 0.32% 0.83% 0.4x 0.12% 20bps, banks stocks lagged in 7 out of the 8 instances.
Credit Card 3.57% 4.44% 0.8x 1.95% # of Years Down Up < 20bps Up > 20bps
Other Consumer 0.97% 1.11% 0.9x 0.44% Outperform 22 17 1
Total Loans 0.48% 0.94% 0.5x 0.34% Underperform 17 17 7
Asset quality
Even if loan losses remain benign, loan loss provisions will likely grind higher
Net Charge-off Rates by Loan Type NCO Ratio vs. NPA Ratio
7% 6%
6% 5%
5%
4%
4%
3% 3%
2% 2%
1%
1%
0%
-1% 0%
1Q91 1Q95 1Q99 1Q03 1Q07 1Q11 1Q15 1Q84 1Q88 1Q92 1Q96 1Q00 1Q04 1Q08 1Q12 1Q16
Residential RE Commercial RE C&I Consumer Net Charge-off Ratio NPA Ratio
Yr-Yr Chg in NCO Ratio vs. Prime Rate Reserve/Loan, NCO ratio vs. LLP/NCO
2.00% 3.00% Reserve/Loans, Prov/NCOs
NCO Ratio
1.50% 2.00% 3.5% 2.5x
1.00% 1.00% 3.0%

2.0x
0.50% 0.00% 2.5%
0.00% -1.00% 2.0% 1.5x
-0.50% -2.00% 1.5% 1.0x

-1.00% -3.00%
1.0%
-1.50% -4.00% 0.5x
0.5%
-2.00% -5.00%
1Q86 1Q90 1Q94 1Q98 1Q02 1Q06 1Q10 1Q14 1Q18 0.0% 0.0x
1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018
Net Charge-off Ratio Prime Rate
Reserve/Loans NCO Ratio Provision / NCOs
Asset quality – commercial
Loans to non-bank fins, retailers and commercial estate receiving increased focus
C&I NCOs vs. Private Non-Residential Loans to Non-Bank Financials
Fixed Investment Growth Rate $bn growth rate
NCO Ratio Non-Resi Fixed $550 25%
3.0% Investment -25%
(inverted)
-20%
2.5% $500 20%
-15%
2.0% -10%
$450 15%
-5%
1.5%
0% $400 10%
1.0% 5%
10% $350 5%
0.5%
15%
0.0% 20% $300 0%
1Q85 1Q89 1Q93 1Q97 1Q01 1Q05 1Q09 1Q13 1Q17 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
C&I Charge-offs Private Non-Resi Fixed Investment Growth Loans to non-depository financial institutions year-year % change
U.S. Leveraged Loan Issuance CRE NCOs vs. Unemployment Rate

$bn NCO Ratio Unemployment
$400 3.5% 11%
$350 3.0% 10%

$300 9%
2.5%
$250 8%
2.0%
$200 7%
1.5%
$150 6%
$100 1.0%
5%
$50 0.5% 4%
$0
0.0% 3%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD 2018
1Q85 1Q89 1Q93 1Q97 1Q01 1Q05 1Q09 1Q13 1Q17
U.S. Leveraged Loan Issuance
CRE Charge-offs Unemployment Rate
Source: Barclays Research, Federal Reserve, FDIC, Bloomberg, and Haver Analytics
Asset quality – commercial
PG&E Exposure
During 1Q19, PG&E Corp. and Pacific Gas and Electric Company (the Utility) commenced with a voluntary case under chapter 11 of the United States Code. As
of 3Q18, it had $71.4bn in assets and $51.7bn in liabilities. The commencement of the Chapter 11 constituted an event of default or termination event, and caused the
automatic and immediate acceleration of all debt outstanding under or in respect of a number of instruments including these:
• Revolving Credit Facilities: PG&E has a revolving credit agreement with BAC, as administrative agents. It permits borrowings up to $300mn. At year-end, PG&E’s
aggregate borrowings were for the full $300mn. Its Utility has a revolving credit agreement with C, as administrative agent. It permits borrowings up to $3bn. At year-end,
the Utility’s aggregate borrowings included $2.85bn of revolving credit loans and $80mn of letters of credit outstanding. The termination dates for both these facilities was
extended in May 2017, by one year to April 2022. The facilities include customary provisions regarding events of default and covenants, including covenants limiting the
incurrence of secured debt as permitted under the Utility’s senior notes indentures, mergers, and imposing conditions on the sale of all or substantially all assets and
other fundamental changes. The facilities also have a covenant requiring that PG&E Corp. and the Utility maintain a ratio of consolidated debt to total consolidated
capitalization of at most 65% as of the end of each quarter. All obligations under these facilities are unsecured. Neither have cross guarantees.
• Term Loans: PG&E Corp. has an outstanding unsecured term loan in the principal amount of $350mn that matures on April 16, 2020. The Utility has an outstanding
unsecured term loan in the principal amount of $250mn that matures on February 22, 2019. We believe USB, among others, has exposure to the later term loan.
• Senior Notes: The Utility has outstanding various issues of senior notes with varying interest rates and maturities ranging from 2020 to 2047, in the aggregate
outstanding principal amount of $17.5bn. The Senior Notes are unsecured obligations of the Utility and are not guaranteed by PG&E Corp. The indentures governing the
Senior Notes contain a “negative pledge”. We believe BK is the trustee for all of these notes.
• List of creditors who have the 50 largest unsecured claims and are not insiders: This list also includes WFC with $111mn of exposure.
• DIP financing: In conjunction with the filings, PG&E also filed a motion seeking interim and final approval of the Court to enter into an agreement for $5.5b in debtor-in-
possession (DIP) financing with JPM, BAC, C, GS and WFC among the several joint lead arrangers.
Only a handful banks commented on PG&E (directly or indirectly). Those include:
• BK – In its 2018 10-K, BK stated it had unsecured funded exposure of $160mn to a California utility company that filed for bankruptcy in 1Q19. As of Feb 27, it expected
its exposure to this California utility company to decrease by $60mn as a result of current sales. Its nonperforming assets are expected to increase in 1Q19 as a result of
the bankruptcy. It also expected to record an additional provision for credit losses relating to this exposure of $20-$30mn in 1Q19.
• C – C has said any exposure that it would have to any type of company that one is reading about is certainly going to be manageable.
• WFC – WFC has said it is “absolutely manageable”; one credit is not going to drive the results of the company.
Source: Barclays Research see report U.S. Large-Cap Banks 2018 10-K Review &Current Events (3/15/19)
Asset quality – consumer
Unsecured consumer and auto loans have seen strong growth
Consumer Lending Credit Card NCOs vs. Bankruptcies
10yr Loan Growth 2Q18 DPD NCO Ratio Bankruptcies (000)
12.0% 700
80% 3.5%
10.0% 600
70% 3.0%
60% 500
2.5% 8.0%
50% 400
40% 2.0% 6.0%
300
30% 1.5% 4.0%
20% 200
1.0%
10% 2.0% 100
0% 0.5%
0.0% 0
-10% Unsecured Personal Auto Loans Credit Cards Mortgage Loans 0.0% 1Q85 1Q89 1Q93 1Q97 1Q01 1Q05 1Q09 1Q13 1Q17
Loans
Loan Growth (2Q08-2Q18) 60+ DPD (card is 90+) Credit Cards Charge-offs Personal Bankruptcy Filings
Auto Delinquencies vs. Unemployment Rate Auto Loans Outstanding by Lender

Delinquency Rate Unemployment Subprime <620 Auto Finance Banks and Credit
Rate Prime >620 Subpime Unions Subprime
3.5% 12% 18% 6%
3.0% 10%
2.5%
8%
2.0%
6%
1.5%
4%
1.0% Banks and Credit
2% Unions Prime
0.5% 43%
Auto Finance
0.0% 0% Prime
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 33%
Auto Loans Direct Auto Loans Indirect Unemployment Rate
Source: Barclays Research, Federal Reserve, FDIC, ABA, and Haver Analytics
Asset quality – debt issuance
Investors have embraced riskier debt, which could exacerbate losses
Face Value of U.S. Junk Bonds & Loans BBB-rated Debt as a % of IG Debt
$trn
50%
$1.60
48%
$1.40
46%
$1.20 44%
$1.00 42%
$0.80 40%
$0.60 38%
$0.40 36%
34%
$0.20
32%
$0.00
30%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Loans Bonds
Riskier BBB-rated Debt as % of All Investment-grade U.S. Corporate Debt
Outstanding U.S. Debt in Non-Financials Premium on BBB Corp Debt over UST
$trn 4.00%
$30
3.50%
$25
3.00%
$20
2.50%
$15
$10 2.00%
$5 1.50%
$0
1.00%
1Q90 1Q93 1Q96 1Q99 1Q02 1Q05 1Q08 1Q11 1Q14 1Q17
Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19
Households Nonfinancial Corp Business Moody's Baa over 10yr Treasury
Source: Barclays Research, WSJ, Haver Analytics, Moody's, Federal Reserve, and Refinitiv
Capital and liquidity
Capital and liquidity well-positioned as the regulatory backdrop further evolves
Transitional Fully Phased-in Supplementary
Lower of Estimated Capital
Basel III CET1 Ratio Basel III CET1 Ratio Leverage Ratio (SLR)
Basel III Basel III Basel III Basel III Fully Fed Surplus/ HQLA
Key Capital Standardized Advanced Standardized Advanced Phased-in Minimum Deficit
HoldCo Bank LCR
($bn)
and Liquidity GLOBAL
BAC 11.6% 11.9% 11.6% 11.9% 11.6% 9.5% 2.1% 6.8% 7.1% 118% $446
Ratios, BK 11.7% 10.7% 11.7% 10.7% 10.7% 8.5% 2.2% 6.1% 6.8% 118% $133
4Q18 C 11.9% 12.3% 11.9% 12.3% 11.9% 10.0% 1.9% 6.4% 6.9% 121% $404
GS 13.3% 13.1% 13.3% 13.1% 13.1% 10.0% 3.1% 6.2% 7.5% 127% $160
JPM 12.0% 12.9% 12.0% 12.9% 12.0% 10.5% 1.5% 6.4% 6.7% 113% $529
MS 16.9% 17.1% 16.9% 17.1% 16.9% 10.0% 6.9% 6.5% 8.2% 145% $195
STT 11.7% 12.1% 11.7% 12.1% 11.7% 8.5% 3.2% 6.3% 7.1% 108% $92
WFC 11.7% 12.4% 11.7% 12.4% 11.7% 9.0% 2.7% 7.7% 7.3% 121% $367
DOMESTIC
ALLY 9.1% - 9.1% - 9.1% 7.0% 2.1% - - >min -
BBT 10.2% - 10.2% - 10.2% 7.0% 3.2% - - 126% -
CFG 10.6% - 10.6% - 10.6% 7.0% 3.6% - - compliant -
CMA 11.1% - 11.1% - 11.1% 7.0% 4.1% - - compliant -
COF 11.2% - 11.2% - 11.2% 7.0% 4.2% 9.0% 8.0% >100% -
FITB 10.2% - 10.2% - 10.2% 7.0% 3.2% - - 128% -
HBAN 9.7% - 9.7% - 9.7% 7.0% 2.7% - - 146% $14
KEY 9.9% - 9.9% - 9.9% 7.0% 2.9% - - >100% -
MTB 10.1% - 10.1% - 10.1% 7.0% 3.1% - - 126% $16
NTRS 12.9% 13.7% 12.9% 13.7% 12.9% 7.0% 5.9% 7.0% 6.4% >100% -
PNC 9.6% 10.9% 9.6% 10.9% 9.6% 7.0% 2.6% 7.8% 6.9% 111% $70
RF 9.9% - 9.8% - 9.8% 7.0% 2.8% - - compliant -
STI 9.2% - 9.2% - 9.2% 7.0% 2.2% - - >100% -
USB 9.1% 11.8% 9.1% 11.8% 9.1% 7.0% 2.1% 7.2% - compliant -
Median 10.9% 12.3% 10.9% 12.3% 10.7% 2.9% 6.6% 7.1% 121%
Capital and liquidity
Still, the biggest banks will continue to have higher requirements
CET1 Ratio vs. Estimated Fed’s Regulatory Minimum, 4Q18
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
MS NTRS COF CMA CFG FITB STT BBT MTB GS KEY RF WFC HBAN PNC STI BK BAC ALLY USB C JPM
Basel III CET1 Fully Phased-in Est'd Fed Minimum Requirement
SLR Ratios, 4Q18 TLAC

SLR for BHC SLR for IDI
9% 9%
External TLAC Eligible LTD
8% 8%
RWA Leverage RWA Leverage As of
7% 7%
6% 6% BAC > 22.5% > 9.5% > 8.5% > 4.5% 3Q17
5% 5%
4% 4%
C 24.4% 12.0% 10.1% 4.9% 1Q18
3% 3% GS > 40% 2Q17
2% 2%
1% 1%
JPM 23.8% 11.1% 9.1% 4.3% 4Q16
0% 0% MS 56% 19% 35% 12% 3Q17
WFC BAC MS C JPM STT GS BK MS GS WFC STT BAC C BK JPM
PNC & PNC bank have 3% min
BHC Ratio Required Minimum IDI Ratio Required Minimum WFC 24.0% 9.4% 1Q18
NTRS's min is 3% effective in 2018. Less than G-SIFI min

Capital return
Banks now have one of the highest all-in yields among the 24 GIC sectors
140%
120%
Historical and
100%
Expected
80%
Payout Ratios,
60%
1999 – 2019E
40%
20%
0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E* 2019E
Dividend Payout Share Repurchase Payout
* Updated. From 2011 onward that year’s CCAR cycle payouts is shown.
CCAR 2019E Payout Ratios CCAR 2019E Implied Yields

160%
18%
140%
16%
120% 14%
100% 12%
80% 10%
8%
60%
6%
40% 4%
20% 2%
0% 0%
WFC
FITB
MTB
ALLY
USB
KEY
CFG
C
HBAN
RF
JPM
PNC
CMA
STI
STT
BBT
BK
NTRS
MS
BAC
COF
GS
WFC
CMA
MTB
GS
FITB
BAC
KEY
MS
CFG
COF
HBAN
RF
PNC
JPM
ALLY
USB
C
STT
STI
BBT
BK
NTRS
Dividend Share Repurchase

Source: Barclays Research, Company reports, and S&P Global Market Intelligence
Profitability
ROA and ROTCE are both at decade highs with further room to improve
TCE and CET1 Capital Ratios 2019 Consensus ROE and ROA
ROE ROA
20% 2.00%
18% 1.80%
16% 1.60%
14% 1.40%
12% 1.20%
10% 1.00%
8% 0.80%
6% 0.60%
4% 0.40%
2% 0.20%
0% 0.00%
BBT
COF
NTRS
JPM
BAC
KEY
HBAN
PNC
CMA
USB
STT
MS
STI
BK
CFG
GS
RF
ALLY
WFC
MTB
FITB
C
2019E ROE Consensus 2019E ROA Consensus
Return on Assets Return on Tangible Common Equity

1.50% 25%
20%
1.00%
15%
0.50% 10%
5%
0.00%
0%
-0.50%
-5%
-1.00% -10%
1Q84 1Q88 1Q92 1Q96 1Q00 1Q04 1Q08 1Q12 1Q16 1Q84 1Q88 1Q92 1Q96 1Q00 1Q04 1Q08 1Q12 1Q16
ROA Median ROTCE Median

Source: Barclays Research, FDIC, and S&P Global Market Intelligence
Profitability targets
Time Frame ROE ROTCE ROA Efficiency NCO Ratio CET1 Ratio
ALLY 2019 12-13%+ 46.6-47.6% 9.0%

Company Stated BAC Long-term 12% 1.00% <60% 10.0-10.5%
Medium / Long-Term BBT Long-term 12-15% 19-22% 1.40-1.70% 0.40-0.60% 9.50-9.75%
Profitability Targets BBT/STI 2021 22% 51.0% 9.75-10.0%
BK Long-term
C Long-term 16% Low 50% 11.5%
CFG Medium-term 14-16% 54% 10.0%
CMA Medium-term 13-15% 1.10-1.30% <55% 9.5-10%
COF 11.0%
FITB 2020 18%+ 1.55-1.65% 53.0% 9.0%
GS
HBAN Long-term 17%-20% 53%-56% 0.35-0.55% 9-10%
JPM Medium-term 17% 55% 11-12%
KEY Long-term 16-19% 54-56% 0.40-0.60% 9-9.5%
MS 2018-2019 10-13% 11.5-14.5% ≤73%
MTB Long-term <55%
NTRS Long-term 10-15%
PNC
RF 2021 18-20% <55% 0.40-0.65% 9.5%
STI Long-term 14-16% 56-58% 8-9%
STT Long-term 12-15%
USB Long-term 14.5-17.5% Low 50% 0.95% 8.5%
WFC Thru 2019 12-15% 14-17% 55-59% 0.60-0.70% 10.25-10.5%
Median 13.5% 15.8% 1.38% 54.0% 0.51% 9.7%
Capital Outlook

CCAR 2019 – February 5
• On February 5, the Fed made several stress test related announcements, but no instructions. After the close on February 5, the Fed
released its scenarios for CCAR 2019, confirmed the regional banks can skip stress testing this year, and finalized changes to increase stress
testing transparency. It did not however release the instructions for this year's CCAR exam.
• Tough scenario shouldn’t be unexpected. While this year’s severely adverse scenario features a more severe recession and greater increase
in the U.S. unemployment rate than last year, the increase is in-line with the Fed’s policy, which calls for a more pronounced downturn when
conditions are strong. Given a lower unemployment rate at the beginning of this year’s scenario compared to last year’s, the framework calls for
a larger increase in the unemployment rate in order to reach a peak of at least 10%. Still, we believe this was in-line with the banks expectations.
It also includes elevated stress in corporate loan and CRE markets, while the 10-year yield falls (stable last year).
• Regionals get to skip this year. The Fed confirmed that it will be providing relief to less-complex banks from stress testing requirements and
CCAR by effectively moving the firms to an extended stress test cycle for this year. The relief applies to banks generally with assets between
$100bn and $250bn. As a result, these banks will not be subject to a supervisory stress test during the 2019 cycle and their capital distributions
for this year will be largely based on the results from the 2018 supervisory stress test.
• Instructions still unknown, though we would expect any changes to be positive. The Fed said the instructions for this year's CCAR will be
released at a later date. Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Quarles is scheduled to give a speech at 6:05pm today on stress testing, which could
shed some light. We believe potential changes to the CCAR 2019 construct, all of which we would view positively, could include: removing the
requirement a bank must carry out all 9 quarters of its capital plan, removing the requirement banks must grow their balance sheets, removing
the 30% dividend payout ratio threshold for heightened scrutiny, and eliminating the qualitative fail.
• Increase in transparency is a plus. The Fed also said that it finalized a set of changes that will increase the transparency of its stress testing
program by providing significantly more information about the models used in CCAR. Using this additional information, a bank should be better
able to evaluate the risks in its own portfolio or compare the losses from its own models to losses from the Fed’s models.
• We still expect meaningful capital return to continue. While the scenarios are onerous, we continue to believe our coverage will be broadly
able to increase dividends and repurchase a meaningful amount of stock over the CCAR 2019 cycle (3Q19-2Q20). Over this span, we expect the
median bank’s payout ratio to exceed 100%, post an 18% increase in its dividend and repurchase 7% of its shares (based on current prices).
This implies an all-in yield of 11%+ (7% +share repurchase, 3%+ dividend).
Source: Barclays Research see report Fed Releases CCAR 2019 Scenarios But No Instructions (Feb 6, 2019)
CCAR 2019 – March 6
Then on March 6, the Fed finally released the instructions for the CCAR 2019 process, that did not alter our CCAR 2019 capital return
expectations.
Relative to our coverage we note these are the major changes for CCAR 2019 vs. CCAR 2018:
• Removal of CCAR’s qualitative objection: The Fed will no longer object to capital plans on qualitative grounds. Still, banks with weak
practices may be subject to a deficient supervisory rating, and potentially enforcement action.
• Banks with $100bn-$250bn in assets: In our coverage, as expected, ALLY, BBT, CFG, FITB, HBAN, KEY, MTB, RF, and STI (CMA
completely out since last year) will not be subject to the company-run and supervisory stress testing requirements for 2019. Additionally, while
these firms remain subject to capital planning requirements, they are not required to submit their capital plans to the Fed in 2019. These firms
will however be subject to supervisory stress testing and capital plan submission requirements in 2020, as expected.
• Reduced supporting documentation: In an effort to reduce the burden associated with the submission of supporting documentation, banks
will only be required to submit documentation related to those elements in scope for this year’s exercise, as reflected in a scoping letter sent to
each bank in Dec 2018.
• Shift to CECL: With respect to CECL, banks should exclude the potential effect of CECL from company-run stress testing projections for
CCAR 2019, even if a bank chooses to early adopt CECL for financial reporting purposes in 2019 (we don’t expect anyone in our coverage to
early adopt).
Relative to our coverage, these key items that stayed the same:
• Required minimum capital ratios: The required minimums remain the same for CET1 (4.5%), tier 1 risk-based capital ratio (6.0%), total risk-
based capital ratio (8.0%) and tier 1 leverage ratio (4.0%), as well the supplementary leverage ratio (3.0%) for advanced approaches firms.
• Dividend payout language: The Fed continued to state that capital plans with dividend payout ratios above 30% of projected after-tax net
income will receive “particularly close scrutiny”. We thought the Fed could drop this. Still, many banks were over 30% last year with no issue.
• Add-ons unchanged: The companies subject to global market shock remain BAC, C, GS, JPM, MS, and WFC. These 6 plus BK and STT are
still subject to the counterparty default component. COF, NTRS, PNC and USB still remain in CCAR but continue to be exempt from these
additions.
Coverage impact and scenarios comparison
CCAR 2019 will be tailored, while the scenario is mixed relative to last year
Coverage Segmented Comparing CCAR Annual Scenarios
Subject to Subject to Not Subject
Subject to
global market counterparty to CCAR SCAP 2009 CCAR 2012 CCAR 2013 CCAR 2014 CCAR 2015 CCAR 2016
CCAR 2019
shock default 2019
Year 1 Year 2 Year 1 Year 2 Year 1 Year 2 Year 1 Year 2 Year 1 Year 2
ALLY X
BAC X X X Tested Scenario: "More Adverse" "Stress" "Severely Adverse" "Severely Adverse" "Severely Adverse" "Severely Adverse"
BBT X Real GDP Growth -3.3% 0.5% -3.9% 2.2% -4.0% 2.2% -4.0% 3.0% -1.5% 3.0%
BK X X Unemployment Rate 8.9% 10.3% 11.7% 12.9% 11.0% 12.0% 10.7% 11.2% 9.9% 9.9%
House Prices -22.0% -7.0% -11.9% -8.9% -11.9% -8.9% -12.4% -13.5% -14.9% -11.0%
C X X X
CFG X Baseline Scenario:
CMA X
Real GDP Growth -2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.8% 2.3% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Unemployment Rate 8.4% 9.0% 9.0% 8.4% 7.8% 7.4% 6.9% 6.4% 5.6% 5.3%
COF X
House Prices -14.0% -4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.9% 2.5% 2.9%
FITB X
GS X X X
HBAN X CCAR 2016 CCAR 2017 CCAR 2018 CCAR 2019
JPM X X X Year 1 Year 2 Year 1 Year 2 Year 1 Year 2 Year 1 Year 2
KEY X
Tested Scenario: "Severely Adverse" "Severely Adverse" "Severely Adverse" "Severely Adverse"
MS X X X
Real GDP Growth -4.2% 3.0% -5.1% 3.0% -4.7% 2.8% -5.0% -2.9%
MTB X
Unemployment Rate 9.1% 9.9% 8.9% 9.9% 8.5% 9.9% 8.4% 9.9%
NTRS X
House Prices -12.2% -12.4% -11.8% -14.7% -22.5% -9.7% -13.2% -14.6%
PNC X
Baseline Scenario:
RF X
Real GDP Growth 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.6%
STI X
Unemployment Rate 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.8%
STT X X House Prices 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.9%
USB X
WFC X X X

CCAR 2019 scenarios
GDP Growth Unemployment Rate
U.S. Real GDP Growth Unemployment Rate
8% 11 %
6% 10 %
4% 9%
2%
8%
0%
7%
-2 %
-4 % 6%
-6 % 5%
-8 % 4%
-10 % 3%
2019 Baseline 2019 Adverse 2019 Severely Adverse 2019 Baseline 2019 Adverse 2019 Severely Adverse
House Price Index Implied Interest Rate Spread

bps Implied 10yr/3mo Spread (bps)
House Price Index
220 400
350
200
300
180 250
200
160 150
140 100
50
120 0
100 -50

CCAR 2019 scenarios compared with prior CCAR scenarios
GDP Growth Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate
U.S. Real GDP Growth 14 %
8%
6% 12 %
4% 10 %
2%
8%
0%
-2 % 6%
-4 % 4%
-6 %
2%
-8 %
-10 % 0%
2019 Baseline 2019 Adverse 2019 Severely Adverse
2019 Baseline 2019 Adverse 2019 Severely Adverse
2018 Severely Adverse 2017 Severely Adverse 2016 Severely Adverse
House Price Index Implied Interest Rate Spread

House Price Index bps Implied 10yr/3mo Spread (bps)
220 400
200 300
180
200
160
100
140
0
120
100 -100
2018 Severely Adverse 2017 Severely Adverse 2016 Severely Adverse 2018 Severely Adverse 2017 Severely Adverse 2016 Severely Adverse
2015 Severely Adverse 2014 Severely Adverse 2013 Severely Adverse 2015 Severely Adverse 2014 Severely Adverse 2013 Severely Adverse

Company comments
We do not believe the recently released scenarios/instructions alter company commentary
Ticker Recent CCAR/Payout Comments
ALLY Expects to distribute the vast majority of its earnings
CCAR/Payout BAC Expects to at the minimum sustain its current payout ratio in CCAR 2019 (95%)
Comments BBT Payout targets include 40-50% dividend, 30-40% buyback/strategic and 15-25% organic growth but LCR changes could elevate share repurchase
BK Expects a payout ratio of 100%-plus, including dividends of 20-30% and share repurchase of 80%-plus
C Committed to returning the $60bn of capital over 3-years (implies $19bn expected in CCAR 2019)
CFG Targeting dividend payout ratio of 30-35%
CMA Recently increased its buyback to 19.7mn shares (12% of outstandings) and raised its dividend 12%
COF Expects meaningful capital distribution in CCAR 2019
Targets included a 120%-140% payout ratio with 30-40% in dividends and 90-100% in buyback until capital ratios normalize; WP gains to also be used
FITB
for buyback
GS Expects to be "prudently aggressive"
HBAN Long-term payout ratio target is 70-80%, including 40-45% in dividend and 30-35% in share repurchase
JPM Payouts over the next few years of 100% plus or minus; dividends 30-35% of normalized earnings
KEY Dividend payout ratio target of 40-50% and believes current capital ratios support a total payout in excess of 100%
MS Will look to achieve 100% payout ratio going forward
MTB Expects to continue to manage capital levels toward the lower end of its peer group
NTRS Believes it is entering the 2019 capital planning cycle from a position of strength
PNC Expected to be biased toward share repurchase given current stock price
RF Dividend payout at upper end of the 35-45% range
STI Expects to continue to reduce capital ratios
STT Expects to target a total payout of over 80%
USB Target payout is 60-80% with 20-40% dividends and 20-40% buybacks; buyback has outpaced dividend of late, could shift normalize
WFC It is not unlikely that its CCAR 2019 capital plans will look something like CCAR 2018
Source: Barclays Research and Company
Past and expected CCAR payout ratios
We expect every bank under coverage to increase their dividend and buy back stock
Average CCAR 2016 CCAR 2017 CCAR 2018 CCAR 2018 CCAR 2019
(1999-2006) Actual Actual At Annoucement Current Estimate
Ticker Divy Repo Total Divy Repo Total Divy Repo Total Divy Repo Total Divy Repo Total Divy Repo Total
Historical and ALLY na na na 16% 74% 91% 18% 59% 76% 19% 72% 91% 19% 68% 87% 22% 73% 96%
Expected BAC 44% 62% 106% 18% 39% 57% 22% 76% 98% 22% 73% 95% 22% 72% 93% 26% 87% 113%
Payout Ratios BBT 50% 49% 98% 45% 39% 83% 40% 67% 107% 39% 53% 91% 39% 53% 92% 40% 74% 114%
BK 40% 35% 75% 23% 76% 99% 24% 63% 87% 26% 55% 81% 29% 81% 110% 29% 82% 112%
C 40% 28% 68% 13% 71% 84% 22% 96% 118% 26% 102% 128% 25% 98% 123% 27% 72% 99%
CFG na na na 23% 57% 79% 26% 55% 81% 33% 59% 92% 32% 56% 88% 35% 67% 103%
CMA 43% 27% 70% 24% 64% 88% 21% 59% 80% na na na 33% 149% 182% 36% 92% 129%
COF 2% 1% 2% 23% 73% 96% 20% 26% 47% 16% 24% 39% 14% 22% 36% 16% 46% 62%
FITB 45% 39% 84% 28% 49% 77% 22% 82% 104% 34% 94% 128% 33% 100% 133% 36% 90% 125%
GS 8% 64% 72% 14% 77% 91% 13% 48% 61% 14% 55% 69% 14% 53% 67% 13% 52% 66%
HBAN 58% 44% 101% 43% 0% 43% 38% 26% 64% 44% 75% 119% 44% 75% 119% 43% 68% 111%
JPM 78% 34% 112% 29% 44% 74% 27% 66% 93% 34% 64% 98% 34% 65% 99% 35% 65% 100%
KEY 91% 36% 127% 36% 43% 79% 29% 49% 78% 38% 65% 103% 39% 65% 104% 46% 67% 113%
MS 22% 44% 66% 23% 53% 76% 22% 60% 83% 24% 55% 80% 26% 58% 84% 31% 75% 106%
MTB 24% 49% 72% 34% 86% 120% 29% 104% 133% 31% 95% 126% 28% 87% 115% 34% 88% 121%
NTRS 31% 31% 61% 34% 27% 60% 29% 56% 84% 33% 68% 101% 35% 68% 103% 38% 72% 110%
PNC 55% 50% 105% 28% 60% 88% 31% 58% 89% 34% 39% 73% 35% 56% 90% 36% 66% 101%
RF 54% 42% 96% 28% 64% 93% 30% 101% 131% 39% 107% 146% 37% 120% 157% 41% 62% 104%
STI 38% 33% 71% 28% 61% 89% 32% 55% 87% 37% 79% 117% 36% 76% 112% 37% 84% 121%
STT 21% 28% 49% 27% 65% 92% 24% 52% 75% 23% 40% 64% 32% 27% 59% 30% 64% 94%
USB 50% 42% 92% 34% 45% 79% 32% 41% 73% 35% 44% 79% 35% 43% 78% 36% 44% 80%
WFC 41% 43% 83% 38% 41% 79% 42% 61% 103% 36% 105% 141% 38% 107% 144% 38% 103% 142%
Median 41% 39% 79% 28% 58% 84% 27% 59% 86% 33% 65% 95% 33% 68% 101% 35% 72% 108%
CCAR 2018 Current updated for change in share repurchase approval, unexpected dividend increases, actual 3Q18 EPS, actual 4Q18 EPS, and updated 1Q19 and 2Q19 consensus EPS estimates.
Source: Barclays Research, S&P Market Intelligence, and Company reports
Dividend outlook
CCAR 2017 Request CCAR 2018 Request CCAR 2019 Estimate
Payout CCAR Implied
3Q17A 4Q17A 1Q18A 2Q18E Sum Payout 3Q18A 4Q18A 1Q19E 2Q19E Sum Payout 3Q19E 4Q19E 1Q20E 2Q20E Sum Payout
Dividend Change '20/'19 Yield
ALLY $0.12 $0.12 $0.13 $0.13 $0.50 18% $0.15 $0.15 $0.17 $0.17 $0.64 19% $0.20 $0.20 $0.22 $0.22 $0.84 22% 3.37% 31% 3.2%
per Share,
BAC $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.48 22% $0.15 $0.15 $0.15 $0.15 $0.60 22% $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.80 26% 4.25% 33% 2.8%
CCAR 2017 BBT $0.33 $0.33 $0.375 $0.375 $1.41 40% $0.405 $0.405 $0.405 $0.405 $1.62 39% $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $1.80 40% 0.40% 11% 3.7%
– 2019E BK $0.24 $0.24 $0.24 $0.24 $0.96 24% $0.28 $0.28 $0.28 $0.28 $1.12 29% $0.33 $0.33 $0.33 $0.33 $1.32 29% 0.83% 18% 2.5%
C $0.32 $0.32 $0.32 $0.32 $1.28 22% $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $1.80 25% $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 $2.20 27% 1.60% 22% 3.4%
CFG $0.18 $0.18 $0.22 $0.22 $0.80 26% $0.27 $0.27 $0.32 $0.32 $1.18 32% $0.34 $0.34 $0.37 $0.37 $1.42 35% 3.49% 20% 4.1%
CMA $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.34 $1.24 21% $0.60 $0.60 $0.67 $0.67 $2.54 33% $0.75 $0.75 $0.80 $0.80 $3.10 36% 3.35% 22% 3.9%
COF $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $1.60 20% $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $1.60 14% $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $1.80 16% 1.54% 13% 2.2%
FITB $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.18 $0.66 22% $0.18 $0.22 $0.22 $0.24 $0.86 33% $0.24 $0.26 $0.26 $0.28 $1.04 36% 2.36% 21% 3.8%
GS $0.75 $0.75 $0.75 $0.80 $3.05 13% $0.80 $0.80 $0.80 $0.85 $3.25 14% $0.85 $0.85 $0.85 $0.90 $3.45 13% -0.28% 6% 1.7%
HBAN $0.08 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.41 38% $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.56 44% $0.15 $0.15 $0.15 $0.15 $0.60 43% -0.95% 7% 4.5%
JPM $0.56 $0.56 $0.56 $0.56 $2.24 27% $0.80 $0.80 $0.80 $0.80 $3.20 34% $0.90 $0.90 $0.90 $0.90 $3.60 35% 0.46% 13% 3.5%
KEY $0.095 $0.105 $0.105 $0.12 $0.43 29% $0.17 $0.17 $0.17 $0.17 $0.68 39% $0.22 $0.22 $0.22 $0.22 $0.88 46% 6.89% 29% 5.3%
MS $0.25 $0.25 $0.25 $0.25 $1.00 22% $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $1.20 26% $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $1.60 31% 4.80% 33% 3.8%
MTB $0.75 $0.75 $0.75 $0.80 $3.05 29% $1.00 $1.00 $1.00 $1.00 $4.00 28% $1.25 $1.25 $1.25 $1.25 $5.00 34% 5.67% 25% 3.1%
NTRS $0.42 $0.42 $0.42 $0.42 $1.68 29% $0.55 $0.55 $0.60 $0.60 $2.30 35% $0.65 $0.65 $0.70 $0.70 $2.70 38% 3.22% 17% 3.0%
PNC $0.75 $0.75 $0.75 $0.75 $3.00 31% $0.95 $0.95 $0.95 $0.95 $3.80 35% $1.05 $1.05 $1.05 $1.05 $4.20 36% 1.08% 11% 3.4%
RF $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.36 30% $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.56 37% $0.17 $0.17 $0.17 $0.17 $0.68 41% 4.11% 21% 4.4%
STI $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $1.60 32% $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $2.00 36% $0.57 $0.57 $0.57 $0.57 $2.28 37% 1.87% 14% 3.8%
STT $0.42 $0.42 $0.42 $0.42 $1.68 24% $0.47 $0.47 $0.47 $0.47 $1.88 32% $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 $2.20 30% -1.59% 17% 3.1%
USB $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $1.20 32% $0.37 $0.37 $0.37 $0.37 $1.48 35% $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $1.60 36% 0.78% 8% 3.1%
WFC $0.39 $0.39 $0.39 $0.39 $1.56 42% $0.43 $0.43 $0.45 $0.45 $1.76 38% $0.50 $0.50 $0.52 $0.52 $2.04 38% 0.50% 16% 4.2%
Median 27% 33% 35% 1.73% 18% 3.4%
Increase is for the boxed quarterly dividend (quarter in which we expect dividend increase).
Share repurchase outlook
CCAR 2018 Request CCAR 2019 Estimate
Share Initial Current As a % of Payout % Done at Expected Percent Ask in As a % of Days of

Gross Net
Ticker Change Comments Payout Payout
Repurchases – Request Aproval Shares Ratio Year-end Ask Change Shares Shares Volume
Ratio Ratio
ALLY $1,000 $1,000 8.9% 68% 56% $1,100 10% 41.5 10.4% 12.2 73% 69%
CCAR 2019E and BAC $20,600 $2,500 $23,100 Resubmission 7.9% 80% 44% $26,000 13% 900.3 9.4% 12.8 87% 85%
CCAR 2018 BBT $1,700 -$900 $800 Xcld post MOE 2.1% 25% 72% $2,500 213% 50.9 6.8% 12.1 74% 70%
update BK $2,400 $830 $3,230 Resubmission 6.3% 81% 61% $3,500 8% 66.8 7.1% 15.1 82% 73%
C $17,600 $17,600 10.5% 98% 57% $13,500 -23% 210.7 9.3% 12.7 72% 60%
($mn) CFG $1,020 $1,020 5.6% 56% 69% $1,250 23% 36.3 7.9% 7.9 67% 65%
CMA $2,000 $2,000 13.4% 149% 50% $1,250 -38% 15.7 9.9% 9.9 92% 90%
COF $1,200 $1,200 2.7% 22% 100% $2,500 108% 30.7 6.5% 12.4 46% 42%
FITB $1,651 $155 $1,806 WP Gains 9.4% 100% 50% $2,000 11% 73.7 9.7% 13.0 90% 84%
GS $5,000 $5,000 6.0% 53% 50% $5,000 0% 25.3 6.9% 8.2 52% 33%
HBAN $1,068 $1,068 6.5% 75% 83% $1,000 -6% 74.6 7.1% 8.3 68% 62%
JPM $20,700 $20,700 5.5% 65% 50% $22,000 6% 211.0 6.5% 15.3 65% 59%
KEY $1,225 $1,225 6.1% 65% 67% $1,300 6% 78.3 7.8% 7.5 67% 62%
MS $4,700 $4,700 5.9% 58% 51% $6,500 38% 153.1 9.2% 17.4 75% 63%
MTB $1,800 $1,800 7.5% 87% 55% $1,800 0% 11.0 7.9% 16.2 88% 85%
NTRS $1,000 $1,000 4.5% 68% 47% $1,100 10% 12.3 5.7% 10.8 72% 64%
PNC $2,000 $900 $2,900 Resubmission 4.6% 56% 45% $3,500 21% 28.1 6.2% 13.6 66% 60%
Incl $0.3bn from
RF $2,031 $2,031 10.5% 120% 47% $1,050 -48% 67.9 6.6% 5.4 62% 59%
insurance sale
STI $2,000 -$500 $1,500 Xcld post MOE 4.9% 57% 83% $2,250 50% 37.9 8.6% 11.6 84% 78%
STT $1,200 -$600 $600 CRD purchase 2.1% 27% 0% $1,750 192% 24.6 6.6% 14.2 64% 55%
USB $3,000 $3,000 3.5% 43% 52% $3,150 5% 61.1 3.9% 10.0 44% 42%
WFC $24,500 $24,500 9.3% 107% 60% $25,000 2% 509.6 11.3% 26.2 103% 100%
Median 6.0% 66% 54% 9% 7.4% 12.3 72% 63%
Historical payout ratios and current expectations
Banks have one of the highest all-in yields among the 24 GIC sectors
140%
120%
Historical and
Expected 100%
Payout 80%
Ratios, 60%
1999 – 2019E 40%
20%
0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E* 2019E
* Updated. From 2011 onward that year’s CCAR cycle payouts is shown.
CCAR 2019E Payout Ratios CCAR 2019E Implied Yields

160%
18%
140%
16%
120% 14%
100% 12%
80% 10%
8%
60%
6%
40% 4%
20% 2%
0% 0%
WFC
FITB
MTB
ALLY
USB
KEY
CFG
C
HBAN
RF
JPM
PNC
CMA
STI
STT
BBT
BK
NTRS
MS
BAC
COF
GS
WFC
CMA
MTB
GS
FITB
BAC
KEY
MS
CFG
COF
HBAN
RF
PNC
JPM
ALLY
USB
C
STT
STI
BBT
BK
NTRS
Dividend Share Repurchase

Expected CCAR 2019 ratios and implied yields
30% dividend payout ratio cap no longer a factor
Dividend Payout Ratio Implied Dividend Yield
50% 6.0%
45%
5.0%
40%
35%
4.0%
30%
25% 3.0%
20%
2.0%
15%
10%
1.0%
5%
0% 0.0%
Share Repurchase Payout Ratio Implied Share Buyback Yield

120% 12%
100% 10%
80%
8%
60%
6%
40%
4%
20%
2%
0%
0%
Net Payout Ratio Gross Payout Ratio
Represents expected share repurchases as percent of shares outstanding.

DFAST 2018 excess capital
DFAST 2018
Excess Capital
above $bn
Required
Minimums and
Binding
Constraints

Current capital ratios vs. target and required minimums
Current, Target, and Required Minimums
Adj. Capital
Capital Above/Below Estimated CECL Potential 25bp
Regulatory Min CET1 Ratio (4Q18) Company Target Above/Below
Company Target Impact CCyB Impact
Company Target
Company's Midpoint/ Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars
Fed FSB (M1) Standard Advanced Lower in % in % in % in %
Target Our Est ($bn) ($bn) ($bn) ($bn)
ALLY 7.0% 9.4% - 9.4% 9.0% 9.0% $0.6 0.40% $0.5 0.35% $0.1 0.06%
BAC 9.5% 8.5% 11.6% 11.9% 11.6% 10.0-10.5% 10.3% $20.0 1.39% $1.9 0.13% $3.6 0.25% $14.5 1.01%
BBT 7.0% 10.2% - 10.2% 9.5-9.75% 9.6% $1.0 0.56% $0.3 0.17% $0.7 0.39%
BK 8.5% 8.0% 11.8% 10.6% 10.6% N/A 10.0% $1.1 0.64% $0.0 0.01% $0.4 0.25% $0.6 0.38%
C 10.0% 9.0% 11.9% 12.3% 11.9% 11.5% 11.5% $4.8 0.41% $1.9 0.17% $2.9 0.25% ($0.1) 0.00%
CFG 7.0% 10.6% - 10.6% 10.0% 10.0% $0.9 0.63% $0.3 0.22% $0.6 0.42%
CMA 7.0% 11.1% - 11.1% 9.5-10.0% 9.8% $0.9 1.37% $0.1 0.16% $0.8 1.21%
COF 7.0% 11.2% - 11.2% 11.0% 11.0% $0.6 0.21% $3.4 1.16% $0.7 0.25% ($3.5) -1.20%
FITB 7.0% 10.2% - 10.2% 9.0% 9.0% $1.5 1.24% $0.3 0.21% $1.3 1.02%
GS 10.0% 8.5% 13.3% 13.1% 13.1% N/A 11.0% $11.7 2.10% $0.0 0.00% $1.4 0.25% $10.3 1.85%
HBAN 7.0% 9.7% - 9.7% 9.0-10.0% 9.5% $0.1 0.15% $0.2 0.21% ($0.1) -0.06%
JPM 10.5% 9.5% 12.0% 12.8% 12.0% 11.0-12.0% 11.5% $7.7 0.50% $3.7 0.24% $3.8 0.25% $0.2 0.01%
KEY 7.0% 9.9% - 9.9% 9.0-9.5% 9.3% $0.8 0.67% $0.2 0.17% $0.6 0.50%
MS 10.0% 8.0% 16.8% 17.4% 16.8% N/A 10.5% $23.3 6.32% $0.0 0.01% $0.9 0.25% $22.4 6.06%
MTB 7.0% 10.0% - 10.0% 9.0-9.5% 9.3% $0.8 0.78% $0.2 0.25% $0.5 0.53%
NTRS 7.0% 12.9% 13.4% 12.9% N/A 10.0% $1.9 2.90% $0.0 0.03% $0.2 0.25% $1.8 2.62%
PNC 7.0% 9.6% 10.9% 9.6% 8.5-9.0% 8.8% $2.6 0.83% $0.6 0.19% $0.8 0.25% $1.2 0.38%
RF 7.0% 10.1% - 10.1% 9.5% 9.5% $0.6 0.61% $0.2 0.19% $0.4 0.42%
STI 7.0% 9.5% - 9.5% 8.5-9.0% 8.8% $1.4 0.75% $0.4 0.21% $1.0 0.54%
STT 8.5% 8.0% 11.5% 11.9% 11.5% 10.0% 10.0% $1.5 1.48% $0.0 0.01% $0.3 0.25% $1.2 1.22%
USB 7.0% 9.1% 12.0% 9.1% 8.5% 8.5% $2.3 0.60% $0.9 0.25% $1.0 0.25% $0.4 0.10%
WFC 9.0% 8.5% 11.7% 12.3% 11.7% 10.25-10.5% 10.0% $21.6 1.73% $2.3 0.19% $3.1 0.25% $16.1 1.29%
Median 7.0% 8.5% 10.88% 10.6% 9.6% 9.9% 0.71% 0.19% 0.25% 0.46%
Sum $107.7 $17.6 $19.1 $71.0

Bank Tailoring
The regulators segment the banks into four categories, each with tailored requirements
Bank Tailoring
Category I Category II Category III Category IV
JPM, BAC, C, WFC, BBT, STI, ALLY, CFG, FITB,
NTRS USB, PNC, COF
GS, MS, BK, STT KEY, RF, MTB, HBAN
Stress testing
CCAR qualitative and quantitative Annual Annual Annual Two-year cycle
Company-run Annual Annual Every other year Not required
Supervisory Annual Annual Annual Two-year cycle
Capital plan submission Annual Annual Annual Annual
Capital
Risk-based capital framework Advanced Advanced Standardized Standardized
GSIB surcharge Yes No No No
AOCI capital inclusion opt-out No No Yes Yes
CCyB Yes Yes Yes No
SLR Enhanced Yes Yes No
SA-CCR Yes Yes Allow opt-in No
Liquidity
LCR 100% 100% 70-85% No
NSFR 100% 100% 70-85% No
Stressed Capital Buffer (SCB)
This is a rough sketch of what it could look like based on DFAST/CCAR 2018 results
CET1 SCB 2018 – rough sketch
Source: Barclays Research, Federal Reserve, and Company reports

Other Key Investor Topics

 Regulatory reform
After many years of an evolving regulatory backdrop, finalization is near
Appointed By Term Ends (Mon-Yr)
Federal Reserve
Regulatory Jerome Powell Chair Trump Jan-28
Richard Clarida Vice Chair Trump Jan-22
Appointments Randal Quarles Vice Chairman for Supervision Trump Oct-21
Lael Brainard Obama Jan-26
Michelle Bowman Trump Jan-20
Vacant Trump
Vacant Trump
OCC
Joseph Otting Comptroller of the Currency Trump Nov-22
CFPB
Kathleen Kraninger Director Trump Dec-23
FDIC
Jelena McWilliams Chair Trump May-23
Vacant Vice Chair
Martin Gruenberg Director (Internal) Obama Ended Nov-17
Joseph Otting Director (Comptroller of the Currency) Trump Nov-22
Kathleen Kraninger Director (CFPB) Trump Dec-23
SEC
Jay Clayton Chair Trump Jun-21
Kara Stein Commissioner Obama Dec-18
Robert Jackson Commissioner Trump Jun-19
Hester Peirce Commissioner Trump Jun-20
Elad Roisman Commissioner Trump Sep-23
CFTC
Christopher Giancarlo Chair Trump Apr-19
Brian Quintenz Commissioner Trump Apr-20
Rostin Behnam Commissioner Trump Apr-21
Dawn DeBerry Stump Commissioner Trump Apr-22
Dan Berkovitz Commissioner Trump Apr-23
Congress/Fed has proposed a more tailored approach
Proposed Requirements Potential Impact
• The Fed estimates changes would result in a 0.6% ($8bn)
decrease in required capital (driven by AOCI relief at USB,
PNC, COF we believe) and a reduction of 2.5% of liquid assets.
• These proposals reduce regulatory compliance requirements
CAPITAL for Category IV banks, modestly reduce requirements for

Category III, and largely keep existing requirements in place for
Category I and II.
• The proposals would not modify regulatory capital requirements
for Category I or II banks. For Category III and IV, it will slightly
lower capital requirements and should reduce compliance costs
related to capital planning, stress testing, and, for USB, PNC,
COF, the advanced approaches capital requirements.
• The reduction in LCR and NSFR requirements would
moderately reduce the liquidity buffers Category III and IV. It
would continue to require these firms to conduct internal
liquidity stress tests and hold highly liquid assets sufficient to
meet projected 30-day net stressed cash-flow needs under
internal stress scenarios. In addition, the Fed will continue to
LIQUIDITY assess the safety and soundness of these firms through the
normal course of supervision.
• We believe it has the ability to spur additional industry
consolidation as the ‘penalty’ of crossing the $100bn and
$250bn asset thresholds are now less severe.
• Of note, while Fed Chair Jay Powell, Vice Chairman Richard
Clarida and Vice Chairman Randal Quarles voted for this new
framework, Governor Lael Brainard was against.
Glossary: NBA – nonbank assets; STWF – weighted short-term wholesale funding; AOCI – accumulated other comprehensive income; CCAR – Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review; GSIB – global systemically important bank
holding company; LCR – liquidity coverage ratio rule; NSFR – net stable funding ratio proposed rule; TLAC – total loss-absorbing capacity. Source: Barclays Research and Federal Reserve
Creating four categories of banks
Category
TCE and CET1 I Ratios
Capital Category II
JPM, BAC, C, WFC, GS, MS, BK, STT NTRS
Definition: GSIB would remain subject to the most stringent standards. Definition: Banks of global scale—those with very significant size ($700bn or more in
Changes: The proposal would make no changes to the requirements applicable to assets) or cross-jurisdictional activity ($75bn or more)—would be subject to more
U.S. GSIBs, except to reduce the frequency of required company-run stress testing stringent prudential standards (based on global standards developed by the Basel
from semi-annual to annual. Committee) and other prudential standards.
Stress testing: Consistent with EGRRCPA, these banks would be required to conduct
Category III and publicly disclose the results of a company-run stress test on an annual, rather than
USB, PNC, COF semi-annual basis.
Definition: Banks with $250bn or more in assets, or firms with at least $100bn in
assets that exceed certain risk thresholds, would be subject to enhanced standards Category IV
that are tailored to their risk profile. BBT, STI, ALLY, CFG, FITB, KEY, RF, MTB, HBAN
Capital: These banks would no longer be subject to internal models-based risk- Definition: Banks with $100bn to $250bn in assets would be subject to significantly
based capital requirements (“advanced approaches” capital requirements). These reduced requirements. In particular, these banks would no longer be subject to
banks will no longer have to include unrealized AOCI losses in their capital ratios. standardized liquidity requirements or a requirement to conduct and publicly disclose the
Category IV never had too, while Category I and II still have to. At 2Q18, USB results of company-run stress tests.
($2.3bn), PNC ($940mn) and COF ($1.8bn) had roughly $5bn in AOCI (the majority Capital: The banks will have additional flexibility in developing their annual capital plans
of the Fed’s expected $8bn relief, we believe). submitted in connection with the CCAR.
Liquidity: Banks without a significant reliance on short-term wholesale funding would Liquidity: These banks would no longer be subject to the LCR or proposed NSFR rules.
be subject to reduced LCR and proposed NSFR requirements, proposed between 70 In addition, they would be subject to quarterly (rather than monthly) internal liquidity
and 85% of the full LCR and NSFR requirements. Banks with weighted short-term stress testing and simplified liquidity risk management requirements, including monthly
wholesale funding of $75bn or more would be subject to the full LCR and proposed (rather than weekly) collateral monitoring requirements and tailored risk limit and
NSFR requirements. intraday monitoring requirements.
Stress testing: These banks would remain subject to annual supervisory stress Stress testing: These banks would be subject to supervisory stress testing every 2
testing, but would be required to conduct and publicly report the results of their years, rather than annually, and would no longer be required to conduct and publicly
company-run stress tests very two years instead of semi-annually. Still, the proposal report the results of a company-run stress test. While the proposal will not be final in
would continue to require these banks to conduct an internal stress test on an annual time to be formally effective for the 2019 supervisory stress tests, the Fed expects to
basis in connection with the its CCAR capital plans submission. make 2019 an 'off-cycle' year, in which it would rely more on normal-course supervisory
.
Source: Barclays Research and Federal Reserve tools.
 Accounting changes – CECL
With the expected implementation in Jan 2020, CECL will require a capital charge
Rough Sketch of CECL Impact CECL Framework
Reserve Reserve/Loans Impact Current GAAP CECL
Loans Current Pro forma Change Change Current Pro forma Change Per Shr % of TBV % of RWA When a loss is
No recognition
When is a loss "probable" or
ALLY $129.9 $1.24 $1.86 $0.62 50% 0.96% 1.43% 0.48% $1.18 9.1% 0.34% threshold, updated at
recognized? "incurred" (plus 4
each reporting date
BAC $946.9 $9.60 $12.00 $2.40 25% 1.01% 1.27% 0.25% $0.19 0.1% 0.13% other models)
BBT $149.0 $1.56 $1.95 $0.39 25% 1.05% 1.31% 0.26% $0.40 2.4% 0.17% Recognize the current
Recognize the
BK $56.6 $0.15 $0.17 $0.02 15% 0.26% 0.30% 0.04% $0.02 0.1% 0.01% How much of a loss is estimate of cash
amount of loss that
recognized? flows not expected to
C $684.2 $12.32 $14.78 $2.46 20% 1.80% 2.16% 0.36% $0.81 0.5% 0.14% has been incurred
be collected
CFG $116.7 $1.24 $1.61 $0.37 30% 1.06% 1.38% 0.32% $0.63 4.7% 0.22%
Past events & current
CMA $50.2 $0.67 $0.81 $0.13 20% 1.34% 1.61% 0.27% $0.65 9.4% 0.16%
conditions and
What information set
COF $245.9 $7.22 $11.55 $4.33 60% 2.94% 4.70% 1.76% $7.24 22.4% 1.16% Past events & current reasonable &
used to determine a
FITB $95.3 $1.10 $1.43 $0.33 30% 1.16% 1.51% 0.35% $0.39 3.2% 0.21% conditions supportable
loss?
expectations about
HBAN $74.9 $0.77 $1.00 $0.23 30% 1.03% 1.34% 0.31% $0.17 2.2% 0.21%
future
JPM $984.6 $13.45 $18.15 $4.71 35% 1.37% 1.84% 0.48% $1.11 0.6% 0.24%
KEY $89.6 $0.88 $1.15 $0.26 30% 0.99% 1.28% 0.30% $0.20 1.8% 0.17%
MTB $88.5 $1.02 $1.33 $0.31 30% 1.15% 1.50% 0.35% $1.73 18.0% 0.24%
Reserve Methodology
FAS 5: "Losses in the CECL: "Risk in the
NTRS $32.5 $0.11 $0.14 $0.02 20% 0.35% 0.42% 0.07% $0.08 0.9% 0.03%
Portfolio" Portfolio"
PNC $226.2 $2.63 $3.42 $0.79 30% 1.16% 1.51% 0.35% $1.35 3.9% 0.19%
Estimate of 'incured loss' Estimate of 'expected loss'
RF $83.2 $0.84 $1.09 $0.25 30% 1.01% 1.31% 0.30% $0.19 2.0% 0.19%
STI $151.8 $1.62 $2.10 $0.48 30% 1.06% 1.38% 0.32% $0.85 5.3% 0.21% Incured
losses but
STT $25.7 $0.07 $0.08 $0.01 20% 0.26% 0.31% 0.05% $0.03 0.2% 0.01% not yet
USB $286.8 $3.97 $5.16 $1.19 30% 1.39% 1.80% 0.42% $0.58 1.6% 0.25% charged-
off Future expected losses not
Charge-offs
WFC $943.3 $9.78 $12.71 $2.93 30% 1.04% 1.35% 0.31% $0.49 0.3% 0.19% (current yet incurred (addtional
allowance) allowance under CECL)
Median 30% 1.05% 1.38% 0.31% 2.1% 0.19%
. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Barclays Research, Company Reports, S&P Global Market Intelligence, FASB and ABA
 Accounting changes – Leasing
Leasing accounting changes expected in 1Q19
Additional Adj to CET1 Ratio
Additional
Lease Retained Impact
Potential Impact to CET1 Ratio
Assets
Long-term Lease Liabilities Earnings (bps)
Obligations and ALLY $161 $190 NA (1) ALLY HBAN USB GS MTB RF BBT FITB C CMA CFG KEY COF STI PNC JPM WFC BAC NTRS STT BK MS
BAC $9,700 $9,700 NA (8) 0
Potential Impact to BBT $850 $1,000 -$40 (4)
-2 -1
CET1 Ratio BK $1,300 $1,500 NA (11) -2
-4 -3
C $4,400 $4,400 $155 (5) -4 -4 -4 -4 -4
CFG $750 $750 NM (5) -6 -5 -5 -5
-6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6
CMA $330 $345 -$15 (5)
-8
COF $1,600 $1,900 NM (6) -8
-10 -9
FITB $510 $510 $13 (4)
GS $1,770 $1,770 $12 (4) -12 -11 -11
HBAN $225 NA NA (2)

-14
JPM $8,100 $8,200 NA (6)
-16
KEY $700 NA NA (6)
MS $4,000 $4,000 $60 (18) -18
-18
MTB $394 $399 NM (4)
-20
NTRS $480 $530 NA (9)
PNC $2,000 $2,100 $83 (6)
RF $451 NA $0 (4)
STI $1,200 $1,300 $31 (6)
STT $900 $1,100 NM (11)
USB $1,300 $1,300 NM (3)
WFC $5,000 $5,600 $100 (6)
Median (5)
Average (6)
 Technology
There have been meaningful advancements on multiple fronts
Mobile Digitization
Bank Mobile • Increased speed and efficiencies
branch Online • Customer personalization/data-driven dynamic decisions
• Reduces human error/enhanced security
• Use APIs to share data with developers and third-party
partners
• Need to keep up with fintechs
Call • Leverage cloud technology
Center Open
APIs • Rural and urban gap can be reduced
Mail
Artificial Intelligence Blockchain (& problems it solves)

• Streamlining processes • Clearing and settlement – involves multiple parties
• Credit risk and revenue modeling • Trade finance – paper-based and fragmented
• Automated customer support • Cross-border payments – costly and slow
• Profiling customers/predictive analysis/cross-selling • Syndicated loans – takes 19 days for average settlement
• Intelligent virtual assistant technology/chatbots • Digital identities – clients have to repeatedly provide
• Analyze legal documents and extract important data points identifying information
and clauses • Fundraising – unbundles access to capital
• Fraud detection/surveillance of conduct/detect cyber attacks • Know your customer – multiple systems to manage
• Robo-advisory customer identification
API: application programming interfaces. Source: Barclays Research, Deloitte Center for Financial Services • Unlisted securities – lengthy, paper-based, manual
 Technology
We expect our coverage to spend over $60bn on technology this year
Estimated Tech Spend Tech Spend Ranking
Tech Expense (Estimated) YoY growth Tech % of 2019E 2019E Mix (Estimated) Tech Spend Share of Cumulative
2019E
Risk/ Cyber ($mn) Spend Share
Ticker 2016 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 Expenses Revenue Maint Innovation
Reg Sec JPM $11,000 17% 17%
ALLY $667 $700 $735 $742 5% 5% 1% 22% 12% 17% 41% 31% 12% BAC $9,600 15% 33%
BAC $10,500 $10,000 $9,600 $9,600 -5% -4% 0% 18% 10% 28% 31% 9% 31%
WFC $9,000 14% 47%
BBT $1,000 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 0% 10% 9% 17% 10% 27% 22% 14% 38%
C $8,500 13% 60%
BK $2,000 $2,400 $2,700 $2,781 20% 13% 3% 24% 16% 11% 19% 12% 58%
MS $4,250 7% 67%
C $7,000 $7,500 $8,420 $8,500 7% 12% 1% 20% 11% 27% 23% 10% 41%
CFG $531 $564 $609 $625 6% 8% 3% 17% 10% 13% 21% 13% 54% GS $3,342 5% 72%
CMA $320 $310 $307 $307 -3% -1% 0% 17% 9% 17% 23% 14% 46% COF $2,894 5% 77%
COF $2,500 $2,625 $2,756 $2,894 5% 5% 5% 19% 10% 11% 31% 11% 47% BK $2,781 4% 81%
FITB $500 $475 $475 $485 -5% 0% 2% 12% 7% 28% 17% 23% 32% USB $2,600 4% 85%
GS $3,000 $3,150 $3,276 $3,342 5% 4% 2% 14% 9% 17% 20% 17% 46% STT $1,750 3% 88%
HBAN $225 $236 $252 $265 5% 7% 5% 10% 5% 25% 32% 17% 26%
PNC $1,461 2% 90%
JPM $9,200 $9,500 $11,000 $11,000 3% 16% 0% 17% 9% 11% 38% 8% 43%
BBT $1,200 2% 92%
KEY $280 $300 $324 $346 7% 8% 7% 9% 5% 16% 29% 16% 39%
STI $1,100 2% 94%
MS $3,700 $3,800 $4,000 $4,250 3% 5% 6% 14% 10% 23% 42% 15% 21%
MTB $590 $472 $519 $571 -20% 10% 10% 18% 9% 47% 12% 13% 28% NTRS $855 1% 95%
NTRS $775 $791 $806 $855 2% 2% 6% 21% 14% 17% 31% 13% 39% ALLY $742 1% 97%
PNC $1,350 $1,377 $1,405 $1,461 2% 2% 4% 14% 8% 20% 17% 16% 48% CFG $625 1% 98%
RF $400 $404 $508 $508 1% 26% 0% 14% 8% 23% 21% 19% 38% MTB $571 1% 99%
STI $1,000 $1,030 $1,061 $1,100 3% 3% 4% 19% 11% 15% 36% 17% 32%
RF $508 1% 99%
STT $1,650 $1,700 $1,734 $1,750 3% 2% 1% 19% 14% 15% 38% 11% 35%
FITB $485 1% 100%
USB $2,250 $2,500 $2,600 $2,600 11% 4% 0% 20% 11% 15% 20% 15% 60%
KEY $346 1% 101%
WFC $7,100 $8,200 $9,000 $9,000 15% 10% 0% 17% 10% 38% 15% 10% 37%
Sum $56,537 $59,033 $63,187 $64,181
CMA $307 0% 101%
Average 3% 7% 3% 17% 10% 21% 26% 15% 39% HBAN $265 0% 102%
Median 3% 5% 2% 17% 10% 17% 23% 14% 39% SUM $64,181 102%

 Competitive landscape – banks
Big banks are getting bigger and leveraging economies of scale advantages
Market Share Share of Industry Assets
Deposits Financial Services 100%
PNCTD COFBBTSTI JPM, 7%

USB 2%2% 2% 2%1% WFC, 6% 80%
3%
C BAC, 6%
5% 60%
C, 5%
40%
WFC
MS, 3%
12%
GS, 3% 20%
COF, 2%
USB, 2% 0%
BK, 1% 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
JPM
PNC, 1%
12%
Other, 64% Assets >$250bn Assets $10bn-$250bn Assets $1bn-$10bn Assets $100mn-$1bn Assets <$100mn
BAC Other
12% 47%
Largest S&P 500 Revenue Share Companies
Deposit Market Share Concentration by Sector, 2017
Deposits ($trn) Deposit Market
Share Sector Company Rev Share
$12 70%
Telecomm Services AT&T Inc 53.0%
$10 60%
Staples Walmart Inc 30.1%
50% JPM is 7% of
$8 Energy Exxon Mobil Corp 30.9% fins; Top 3
40% Information Tech Apple Inc 17.3%
$6
players
30% Financials Berkshire Hathaway Inc 16.7% (BAC, JPM,
$4 WFC) less
20% Materials DowDuPont Inc 22.8%
than 20%
$2 10% Real Estate CBRE Group Inc 14.3%
$0 0% Health Care McKesson Corp 11.8%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Utilities Exelon Corp 10.2%
Total Deposits Top 20 Market Share Top 3 Market Share Industrials General Electric Co 9.3%
Source: Barclays Research, FDIC, S&P Global Market Intelligence, and Refinitiv Discretionary Amazon.com Inc 9.7%
 Competitive landscape – non-bank financials
Competition from non-depository financials appears to be intensifying
U.S. Non-Banks’ Assets % of GDP Mortgage Debt Held by Insurance Cos
% of GDP $trn
180 $0.6
160
$0.5
140
120 $0.4
100
$0.3
80
60 $0.2
40
$0.1
20
0 $0.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1Q01 1Q03 1Q05 1Q07 1Q09 1Q11 1Q13 1Q15 1Q17
U.S. Non-bank financial institutions’ assets to GDP (%) 1-4Family Multifamily CRE Debt Farm debt
U.S. CLO Issuance BDCs Investments

$bn
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
2003Y 2005Y 2007Y 2009Y 2011Y 2013Y 2015Y 2017Y
Investments
Source: Barclays Research, World Bank, Federal Reserve, Haver Analytics, S&P Global Market Intelligence, and LCD
 Competitive landscape – fintech
An increasing number of fintechs are encroaching in many aspects of banking
Very Select Fintech Players Global FinTech Investments
Consumer: LendingClub, Prosper, Avant $ bn
$45
Pay Day: LendUp, Elevate
$40
Purchase finance: Amazon, Affirm, GreenSky $35
Education: SoFi, Upstart $30
Real estate: LendingHome, Lending Tree, Quicken $25
Merchant cash advance: Amazon, Affirm, Klarna $20
Small business: OnDeck, Kabbage, Fundation $15

$10
Retail investing: Betterment, SigFig, Robinhood
$5
Institutional investing: Addepar, Contix, Kensho
$0
Digital currency: Coinbase, Ripple, BitGo, BitPay 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H18
Payments: Stripe, Square, PayPal, AvidXchange, Clover

Insurtechs: Cocoon, Oscar
Personal finance: Credit Karma, Mint Patent Portfolios of Financials
International transfer: Xoom, Remitly 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
Crowd funding: Kickstarter, Fundly Bank of America
Digital banking: Aspiration, Moven, Varo JPMorgan Chase

Blockchain: Digital Asset, Axoni, R3 Mastercard
Data analytics: Kensho, Persado, AltX
Visa
Software: Symphony, Plaid
Wells Fargo
Real estate: Cadre Patents Issued Pending Applications
Regulatory: AcadiaSoft, Droit, SecureKey American Express
Supply chain: NYSHEX Goldman Sachs

Source: Barclays Research, FinTech Global, and Bloomberg
 Economies of scale
Scale has real advantages while technology is increasingly a differentiator
Efficiency Ratio, by Asset Size Group Capital Ratio, by Asset Size Group
Year Average Year Average
90 15%
80 13%
70 11%
60 9%
50 7%
40 5%
30 3%
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Assets >$250bn Assets $10bn-$250bn Assets $1bn-$10bn Assets >$250bn Assets $10bn-$250bn Assets $1bn-$10bn
Assets $100mn-$1bn Assets <$100mn Assets $100mn-$1bn Assets <$100mn
Digital Users vs. Deposit Market Share 2019E Technology Spend

Digital Users (mn) U.S. Deposit Market $40 $bn
Sum of BAC, JPM and WFC Share
140 37% $35
120 36% $30

1.5x
100 35% $25
80 34%
$20
60 33%
$15
40 32%
$10
20 31%
$5
0 30%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 $0
Online Mobile Deposit Market Share Top 4 banks Next 16 banks
Source: Barclays Research, FDIC, Company reports, and S&P Global Market Intelligence
 Retail Distribution
The retail distribution model is undergoing a material change
How
Net Americans Accessvs.
Interest Revenue Bank
FeeAccounts
Growth 3 MostFee
Utilized Banking
Income Methods By Age
% of Revenues
Internet 42%
18-34 35-44
Mobile 51% Mobile 40%
Mobile 30%
Internet 28% Internet 35%
Branches 18%
Branches 13% Branches 17%
ATM 5%
45-64 65+
Telephone 2%
Internet 49% Internet 56%
Mail 1%
Mobile 22% Branches 21%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Branches 20% Mobile 11%
Direct Bank Deposit Market Share Direct Banks
Domestic Office Direct Bank Share Year Branch
Bank Brand Rate Minimum
Deposits ($ trn) of Retail Deposits Started Access
$14 9%
ALLY 2010 Ally Bank 2.20% $1 No
$12 8%
7% C 2018 Citi 0.03% $1 Yes
$10
6% CFG 2018 Citizens Access 2.35% $5,000 No
$8 5%
COF 2013 Capital One 360 2.00% $10,000 Cafes
$6 4%
3%
GS 2016 Marcus 2.25% $1 No
$4
2% JPM 2018 Finn 0.01% $25 Yes
$2 1% PNC 2018 PNC Bank 2.35% $0 Lite
$0 0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 WFC 2019 Greenhouse 2.10% $25,000 No
Retail deposits* Non-retail deposits Direct bank market share
Rates as of Feb 2019
* Deposits in all accounts up to $250k held in domestic offices and in insured branches.
Source: Barclays Research, American Bankers Association, Company reports, FDIC, and Ally Financial
 Retail Distribution
We expect branches to continue to decline, driving efficiency ratio improvement
Banks vs. Branches Change in Branches (M&A-adjusted)
Branches Banks Branches Branches Percent Acquired Change ex.
90,000 16,000
2008 4Q18 Change Branches Acquired
80,000
14,000 USB 2,791 3,018 8% 332 -3%
70,000
60,000 12,000 JPM 5,474 5,036 -8% 0 -8%
50,000
10,000 HBAN 615 954 55% 438 -9%
40,000
30,000 8,000 CMA 439 436 -1% 60 -13%
20,000
10,000
6,000 FITB 1,307 1,121 -14% 0 -14%
0 4,000 WFC 6,749 5,518 -18% 0 -18%
1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Commercial Bank Branches Commercial Banks
KEY 986 1,159 18% 443 -19%
MTB 686 818 19% 348 -21%
PNC 2,581 2,372 -8% 471 -22%
Y-o-Y Percent Change in U.S. Branches BBT 1,511 1,879 24% 908 -22%
RF 1,900 1,454 -23% 4 -24%
4.0%
CFG 1,500 1,151 -23% 8 -24%
3.0%
C 915 689 -25% 0 -25%
2.0%
STI 1,692 1,218 -28% 6 -28%
1.0%
0.0%
BAC 6,139 4,341 -29% 0 -29%
-1.0%
NTRS 85 60 -29% 0 -29%
-2.0% COF 980 598 -39% 1 -39%
-3.0% BK 358 59 -84% 1 -84%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total 36,708 31,881 -13% 3,020 -20%
Number of Branches year-to-year % change
Source: Barclays Research, FDIC, S&P Global Market Intelligence, and Company reports
 Consolidation
We view U.S. bank consolidation as a secular trend
Several Factors Call for Consolidation Bank Deals – Number & Pricing
# of Deals Avg P/TBV
• Overcapacity – we do not believe there is a need for 5,542 banks and 100 2.8x
savings institutions (and almost 88,000 branches) 90 2.6x
• Favorable economic backdrop but subdued loan growth – growing GDP, 80 2.4x
70
improving employment, still benign asset quality 60
2.2x
• Continued improvement in regulatory backdrop – Category III and IV 50

2.0x
1.8x
less onerous, expect BSA/AML and CRA compliance to be eased 40
1.6x
30
• Rate uncertainty – Fed on pause, 2s/10s is near decade low 1.4x
20
• Excess capital – many banks still in significant excess capital position 10 1.2x
• Rapidly changing technology – significant investments required; branch 0 1.0x
1Q02 1Q04 1Q06 1Q08 1Q10 1Q12 1Q14 1Q16 1Q18
rationalization, mobile banking, cyber security, AI, machine learning
Number of Deals Average Price/Tangible Book
• Greater need for scale and cost efficiencies – top 20 banks spending over
$60bn annually on technology
• Financial disintermediation – expansion of non-depository financials
'Buyers' vs. 'Sellers' Forward P/E
• Increasing shareholder activism – with institutional support (ALLY: Lion 120%
Point; BK: Trian, Marcato; C / MS: Value Act; CMA: Hudson executive; RF: 110%
Basswood recent examples)
• Potential increase in buyers – COF and USB have made progress in 100%
dealing with their BSA/AML issues and KEY and HBAN have smoothly 90%
completed their merger integrations
80%
• Stock market receptivity to low premium deals – While relatively recent
premium deals KEY/FNFG, HBAN/FMER and FITB/MBFI have seen the 70%
acquirers stock price drop on announcement, more recent low premium 60%
deals like BBT/STI and TCB/CHFC have seen their share prices rise at 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
Buyers' Relative to Our Small Bank Index Median
announcement.
P⁄E of BBT, FITB, HBAN, KEY, MTB, PNC, RF, STI, and USB relative to our Small-Cap Bank Composite
 Consolidation
BBT/STI creates a southeast regional ruler. That trend could occur in additional geographies.
Pro Forma U.S. Deposit Market Share Pro forma Deposits - FL, GA, NC, VA, MD, TN, SC, DC
$bn
Deposits Market Cumulative $45
Rank Institution Branch ($bn) Share Share $40
$35
1 Bank of America 4,427 $1,313 12.1% 12.1%
$30
2 JPMorgan Chase 5,129 $1,274 11.7% 23.8% $25
$20
3 Wells Fargo 5,764 $1,268 11.7% 35.4%
$15
4 Citigroup Inc. 710 $510 4.7% 40.1% $10
5 BB&T / SunTrust Pro Forma 3,194 $332 3.1% 43.2% $5
$0
6 U.S. Bancorp 3,105 $321 3.0% 46.1%
7 PNC Financial Services 2,466 $262 2.4% 48.5%
8 Toronto-Dominion Bank 1,256 $248 2.3% 50.8%
9 Capital One Financial 542 $233 2.1% 53.0%
Regional Rulers
10 Bank of New York Mellon 59 $139 1.3% 54.2%
11 HSBC Holdings Plc 230 $124 1.1% 55.4% USB
12 Fifth Third Bancorp 1,259 $123 1.1% 56.5%
13 Citizens Financial 1,143 $122 1.1% 57.6% KEY, HBAN, FITB PNC, CFG, MTB
14 KeyCorp 1,187 $108 1.0% 58.6%
15 Regions Financial 1,455 $97 0.9% 59.5% COF
16 M&T Bank Corporation 809 $93 0.9% 60.4%
CMA
17 Mitsubishi UFJ Financial 351 $86 0.8% 61.2% BBT, STI, RF
18 BNP Paribas SA 616 $86 0.8% 62.0%
19 Bank of Montreal 580 $84 0.8% 62.7%
Stand-alone
9 BB&T Corporation 1,960 $167 1.5% Jason M. Goldberg, CFA I Managing Director
10 SunTrust Banks 1,234 $165 1.5% Barclays; 745 7th Avenue, 17th Floor; New York, NY 10019 I www.barclays.com
 Consolidation
The regulatory process appears to be getting easier
Est'd Cost Earnings Price/ Core
Announce Complete Days to Days to Deal Seller Price/ Price/ Price/ Price/ 1 Day
Buyer Seller Savings Contribution Tangible Deposit
Date Date Approval Complete Value Assets Est EPS LTM EPS Book Assets Premium
Ratio Ratio (est'd) Book Premium
08/19/10 04/15/11 239 First Niagara Finl Group NewAlliance Bancshares Inc. $1,498 $8,712 20% 37% 23.0x 24.6x 102.3% 165.3% 17.2% 12.7% 25.4%
12/17/10 07/05/11 200 Bank of Montreal Marshall & Ilsley Corp. $4,096 $51,887 16% NA NM NM 83.2% 97.6% 7.9% -0.3% 33.9%
Banks/Thrifts 12/22/10
01/18/11
06/04/11
07/28/11
164
191
Hancock Holding Co.
Comerica Inc.
Whitney Holding Corp.
Sterling Bancshares Inc.
$1,468
$1,029
$11,517
$5,040
30%
35%
NA
NA
NM
NM
NM
NM
109.4%
162.5%
163.7%
229.7%
12.8%
20.4%
7.4%
16.7%
39.8%
29.8%
06/16/11 02/17/12 246 Capital One Financial Corp. ING Bank FSB $9,000 $92,222 12% NA NA 31.9x 100.0% 102.2% 9.8% 0.2% NA
Transactions 06/20/11 03/02/12 256 PNC Financial Services Group RBC Bank (USA) $3,450 $27,376 27% NA NA NM 87.5% 97.3% 12.6% -0.5% NA
03/12/12 12/01/12 247 264 Mitsubishi UFJ Finl Grp Inc Pacific Capital Bancorp $1,516 $5,850 40% NA NA 21.5x 198.6% 224.2% 25.9% 23.1% 60.3%
Greater than 08/27/12
09/13/12
11/01/15
04/12/13
1,129
190
1,161
211
M&T Bank Corp.
FirstMerit Corp.
Hudson City Bancorp Inc.
Citizens Republic Bancorp Inc.
$3,812
$943
$43,590
$9,670
24%
22%
NA
5%
12.7x
4.3x
NM
2.6x
81.7%
90.0%
84.5%
130.5%
8.8%
10.7%
-3.6%
3.3%
12.0%
17.1%
$1 billion, 07/22/13
09/11/13
04/07/14
04/18/14
253
202
259
219
PacWest Bancorp
Umpqua Holdings Corp.
CapitalSource Inc.
Sterling Financial Corp.
$2,382
$1,995
$8,483
$9,940
23%
30%
90%
79%
19.1x
19.4x
5.4x
19.1x
150.2%
159.6%
169.4%
167.1%
32.9%
39.9%
35.4%
NA
20.1%
13.9%
2010-Present 07/22/14
11/12/14
08/03/15
07/31/15
364
237
377
261
CIT Group Inc.
BB&T Corp.
IMB HoldCo LLC
Susquehanna Bancshares Inc.
$3,369
$2,501
$21,807
$18,583
NA
32%
31%
9%
NA
17.4x
13.7x
16.6x
99.0%
90.8%
102.4%
172.0%
15.5%
20.0%
0.8%
8.9%
NA
38.9%
01/22/15 11/02/15 258 284 Royal Bank of Canada City National Corp. $5,332 $32,016 NA 3% 21.0x 22.9x 195.2% 262.1% 16.7% 12.3% 26.0%
08/17/15 04/01/16 129 228 BB&T Corp. National Penn Bancshares Inc. $1,815 $9,604 30% 4% 16.8x 17.7x 159.4% 219.4% 21.0% 15.4% 18.2%
10/30/15 07/29/16 256 273 KeyCorp First Niagara Finl Group $4,007 $39,413 40% NA 19.0x 19.3x 106.4% 168.4% 10.2% 6.7% 9.8%
12/07/15 07/29/16 162 235 BBCN Bancorp Inc. Wilshire Bancorp Inc. $1,032 $4,740 NA 40% 16.7x 16.1x 194.0% 224.2% 21.8% 23.0% 10.4%
01/26/16 08/16/16 185 203 Huntington Bancshares Inc. FirstMerit Corp. $3,371 $25,525 40% 27% 14.0x 15.1x 117.5% 163.8% 13.2% 6.9% 31.0%
01/26/16 08/31/16 195 218 Chemical Financial Corp. Talmer Bancorp Inc. $1,118 $6,596 28% 59% 12.7x 19.3x 142.6% 145.9% 17.0% 10.4% -2.2%
06/29/16 06/23/17 343 359 Canadian Imperial Bank of Comm PrivateBancorp Inc. $4,918 $20,054 NA 5% 19.8x 23.5x 251.4% 264.5% 24.5% 22.1% 5.0%
07/21/16 03/11/17 218 233 F.N.B. Corp. Yadkin Financial Corporation $1,487 $7,455 25% 22% 17.0x 22.3x 146.7% 232.1% 19.9% 19.2% 9.9%
08/08/16 06/09/17 303 305 TIAA Board of Overseers EverBank Financial $2,517 $27,354 NA NA 14.4x 21.7x 143.1% 147.3% 9.2% NA 4.6%
10/24/16 09/18/17 324 329 Toronto-Dominion Bank Scottrade Bank $1,300 $16,022 NA 3% NA 11.2x 100.3% 100.3% 8.1% NA NA
01/22/17 06/16/17 74 145 Pinnacle Financial Partners BNC Bancorp $1,732 $7,402 25% 32% 18.3x 23.8x 191.7% 269.7% 23.4% 22.2% 2.1%
02/28/17 07/31/17 97 153 IBERIABANK Corp. Sabadell United Bank N.A. $1,028 $5,789 NA 20% NA 21.2x 167.1% 195.7% 17.8% 13.2% NA
03/07/17 10/02/17 176 209 Sterling Bancorp Astoria Financial Corp. $2,230 $14,559 35% 57% 40.6x 35.4x 140.0% 158.6% 15.3% 9.9% 18.6%
05/04/17 11/30/17 179 210 First Horizon National Corp. Capital Bank Finl Corp $2,190 $10,098 30% 20% 21.3x 28.2x 162.2% 203.1% 21.7% 16.8% -2.9%
07/25/17 04/01/18 212 250 First Financial Bancorp. MainSource Financial Group $1,006 $4,042 40% 30% 18.2x 22.4x 202.6% 266.4% 24.9% NA 15.3%
05/13/18 01/01/19 208 233 Cadence Bancorp. State Bank Finl Corp. $1,504 $4,892 30% 31% 17.2x 28.7x 231.8% 271.6% 30.7% NA 16.0%
05/21/18 03/22/19 289 305 Fifth Third Bancorp MB Financial Inc. $4,617 $20,168 45% 12% 19.2x 14.8x 166.3% 270.7% 22.9% NA 24.2%
05/22/18 01/01/19 209 224 Independent Bk Group Inc. Guaranty Bancorp $1,037 $3,722 38% 34% 18.5x 23.7x 252.5% 319.0% 27.9% 25.5% 15.2%
07/24/18 01/01/19 136 161 Synovus Financial Corp. FCB Financial Holdings Inc. $2,869 $12,192 26% 31% 15.8x 20.6x 203.4% 228.6% 23.5% 23.3% -1.8%
07/24/18 01/01/19 127 161 Veritex Holdings Inc. Green Bancorp Inc. $1,000 $4,392 NA 69% 15.2x 24.2x 201.3% 249.9% 22.8% NA 15.1%
08/08/18 03/01/19 203 205 WSFS Financial Corp. Beneficial Bancorp Inc $1,507 $5,770 45% 32% 33.2x 53.0x 143.7% 172.7% 26.1% 16.6% 20.3%
01/28/19 Pending Chemical Financial Corp. TCF Financial Corp. $3,545 $23,700 NA 65% 11.2x 12.4x 149.4% 161.3% 15.0% NA 0.0%
02/07/19 Pending BB&T Corp. SunTrust Banks Inc. $28,188 $215,543 NA 49% 10.7x 11.0x 127.3% 178.3% 13.1% NA 7.0%
03/15/19 Pending Mechanics Bank Rabobank NA $2,100 $13,870 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Average from 2010 $3,203 $22,962 30% 33% 18.0x 20.8x 150.3% 188.3% 18.9% 12.9% 17.2%
Average from 2000 $5,588 $43,729 27% 25% 17.7x 20.2x 204.7% 268.7% 20.3% 23.5% 19.7%
Average for pre-2008 deals $6,991 $35,564 28% 26% 18.1x 21.3x 251.0% 313.1% 21.3% 25.7% 21.6%
Source: Barclays Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence, and Federal Reserve
 Consolidation
The number of U.S. banks halved in the past 20 years; we expect it to halve again
Source: Federal Reserve, GAO

 Consolidation
Of the top 10 banks in 1990, post BBT/STI, every single one has now sold
Top 25 Banks by Market Cap, 1990 vs. pre-crisis 2007 vs. Y-E 2018 CEO
Age
1990 2007 2018
Rank Company Market Cap Rank Company Market Cap Rank Company Market Cap
CEO Age
1 J.P. Morgan & Co. $8,238 1 Bank of America $183,107 1 JPMorgan Chase & Co. $322,652 BBT 70
2 BankAmerica $5,654 2 Citigroup $147,040 2 Bank of America Corporation $239,172 CMA 70
3 Bank One Corp. $4,408 3 JPMorgan Chase $146,986 3 Wells Fargo & Co. $214,321
4 Citicorp $4,248 4 Wells Fargo $99,540 4 Citigroup Inc. $127,400
COF 68
5 Bankers Trust NY $3,510 5 Wachovia $75,299 5 U.S. Bancorp $73,775 KEY 64
6 Wells Fargo $2,977 6 Bank of New York Mellon $55,878 6 Morgan Stanley $68,374 JPM 63
7 First Wachovia $2,918 7 U.S. Bancorp $54,842 7 Goldman Sachs Group Inc. $62,758
STT 62
8 SunTrust Banks $2,885 8 State Street $31,366 8 PNC Financial Services Group $53,410
9 Security Pacific $2,572 9 PNC Financial Services $22,387 9 Bank of New York Mellon Corp. $46,295 CFG 61
10 NBD Bancorp $2,407 10 SunTrust Banks $21,772 10 Capital One Financial Corp. $35,520 STI 61
11 NCNB Corp. (now BAC) $2,353 11 Capital One Financial $17,621 11 BB&T Corp. $33,121
HBAN 60
12 C&S/Sovran Corp. $2,106 12 Northern Trust $16,894 12 State Street Corp. $23,991
13 Norwest Corp. (now WFC) $2,100 13 BB&T Corp. $16,744 13 SunTrust Banks Inc. $22,258 MS 60
14 PNC Financial Corp. $2,066 14 Regions Financial $16,404 14 M&T Bank Corp. $19,741 BAC 59
15 National City Corp. $1,878 15 Fifth Third Bancorp $13,386 15 Northern Trust Corp. $18,320
USB 58
16 CoreStates Financial $1,725 16 National City $10,435 16 Fifth Third Bancorp $15,433
17 Republic New York $1,703 17 KeyCorp $9,117 17 KeyCorp $15,125 WFC 58
18 First Union $1,679 18 M&T Bank $8,967 18 Citizens Financial Group Inc. $13,841 C 58
19 Manufactures Hanover $1,546 19 Synovus Financial $7,943 19 Regions Financial Corp. $13,813 RF 57
20 First Interstate $1,461 20 Marshall & Ilsley $6,977 20 First Repub Bank $13,787
21 Chase Manhattan $1,383 21 Comerica $6,529 21 Huntington Bancshares Inc. $12,537
FITB 57
22 Fifth Third $1,300 22 Huntington Bancshares $5,406 22 Comerica Inc. $11,271 GS 57
23 Bank of New York $1,231 23 Zions Bancorporation $5,001 23 SVB Financial Group $10,120 PNC 56
24 U.S. Bancorp $1,222 24 BOK Financial $3,480 24 Ally Financial Inc. $9,315
MTB 54
25 Fleet/Norstar Financial $1,212 25 Associated Banc-Corp $3,445 25 Zions Bancorp. $7,776
Top 25 $64,782 Top 25 $986,569 Top 25 $1,484,125
BK 53
NTRS 52
ALLY 46
 Consolidation
Banks, as well as business lines, are consolidating
U.S. Deposits Investment Banking
Rank 1989 1998 2003 2018 Rank 1989 1999 2009 2018
1 Citibank NationsBank Bank of America Bank of America 1 Merrill Lynch Salomon Smith Barney JPMorgan Chase JPMorgan
2 Bank of America First Union Wells Fargo JPMorgan Chase 2 Goldman Sachs Merrill Lynch Bank of America Goldman Sachs
3 Chase Manhattan BankAmerica Wachovia Wells Fargo 3 First Boston Goldman Sachs Citigroup Citigroup
4 Morgan Guaranty Chase Manhattan J.P. Morgan Chase Citigroup Inc. 4 Salomon Brothers Morgan Stanley Barclays Morgan Stanley
5 Manufacturers Hanover Bank One Citigroup U.S. Bancorp 5 Morgan Stanley Lehman Brothers Goldman Sachs Bank of America Merrill Lynch
6 Security Pacific Wells Fargo Bank One PNC Financial Services 6 Shearson Lehman Credit Suisse Morgan Stanley Deutsche Bank
7 Chemical Bank Fleet Financial Washington Mutual Toronto-Dominion Bank 7 Drexel J.P. Morgan Deutsche Bank Barclays
8 Wells Fargo Bank Citicorp U.S. Bancorp Capital One Financial 8 Bear Stearns Bear Stearns Credit Suisse Credit Suisse
9 Bankers Trust Norwest FleetBoston BB&T Corporation 9 Prudential Securities Donald Lufkin & Jenrette UBS UBS Group
10 First National Bank National City SunTrust SunTrust Banks 10 Kidder Peabody Chase Manhattan RBS HSBC Holdings
Of the top 10 banks by U.S. deposit market share in 1989, only one still exists – Of the top 10 brokers by U.S. Investment Banking Fees in 1989, only two still exist –
Chemical (JPM now) GS and MS
Mortgage Originations Credit Card

Rank 1992 2002 2007 2018 Rank 1991 2004 2009 2017
1 Countrywide Wells Fargo Countrywide Wells Fargo 1 Citicorp American Express American Express JPMorgan Chase
2 Prudential Washington Mutual Wells Fargo JPMorgan Chase 2 Discover JPMorgan Chase JPMorgan Chase American Express
3 Norwest Countrywide JPMorgan Chase Quicken Loans 3 Chase Manhattan Citigroup Bank of America Bank of America
4 Fleet JPMorgan Chase Citigroup PennyMac Financial 4 MBNA MBNA Citigroup Wells Fargo
5 Chemical Bank ABN AMRO Bank of America Caliber Home Loans 5 Bank of America Bank of America Capital One Citigroup
6 North American Bank of America Washington Mutual U.S. Bancorp 6 American Express Capital One Discover Capital One
7 PNC Bank National City Wachovia Bank of America 7 First Chicago Discover U.S. Bancorp U.S. Bancorp
8 Home Savings of America GMAC Mortgage Residential Capital United Wholesale Mortgage 8 Chemical Bank U.S. Bancorp Wells Fargo Discover
9 Bank of America Cendant Mortgage IndyMac Amenhome Mortgage 9 Banc One HSBC HSBC PNC Bank
10 Chase Manhattan Residential Capital SunTrust Flagstar Bank 10 Household Wells Fargo Barclays USAA
Of the top 10 mortgage players in 1992, only three still exist, only 2 (JPM, WFC) remain Of the top 10 credit card players in 1991, only three still exist
in the top 10, and 5 are not banks (DFS, AXP, JPM)
Source: Barclays Research, American Banker, Coalition, Refinitiv, Inside Mortgage Finance, Nilson Report, S&P Global Market Intelligence, and Credit Card Management.
 Macro concerns
Recessions happen every 5 years on average, financial crises are every 25 or so
What Will Spark the Next Other Select Risk Topics
Financial Crisis/Credit Cycle? • Execution – M&A likely increasing
• Cyber security – inadequate laws • Reputational – WFC lessons
• Flash crash / liquidity crisis post the proliferation • Regulatory – it keeps on changing
of ETF/passive products and • Operational / Legal risk – going national
quantitative/systematic strategies • Capital / Liquidity – there can be too much
• Third-party / Counterparty risk – growth in
• Emerging markets / Italy / China / Brexit non-bank financials
• Unwind of QE globally / negative rates in • Net-short debt activism – "manufactured" defaults
Germany, Japan / Inverting yield curves What financial companies see as the
• Growth in non-depository financials topthink
What financial companies 5 risks to the
are the economy?
biggest risks to the broader economy?
• Ballooning federal budget deficit / unfunded Cyber risk 78%
Geopolitical risk 69%
public pension liabilities Impact of new regulations 45%
• Rise in populism, protectionism, and trade wars Britain's exit from the E.U. 38%
• Growth in lower – quality corporate loans and U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy 25%
Sudden dislocation in financial markets 25%
high-yield bonds with looser covenants Interconnectedness risk 24%
• Model risk – CCAR forces banks to manage Significant business continuity event 19%
Funding liquidity 18%
similarly Major compliance /Governance event 18%
Source: Barclays Research and DTCC
 Valuation
Last year saw P/E contraction and continued below average stock price dispersion
Rel. Bank Index vs. 10-year, 1993-YTD Rel. BKX
Bankvs.
Index
Prob.
vs.of
10-year,
3+ Hikes
2016-YTD
in 2017
Rel Index Treasury Rate Rel Index Treasury Rate
160 Dec 1992=100 9% 120 3.25%
140 8% 115 3.05%
2.85%
120 7% 110
2.65%
100 6% 105 2.45%
80 5% 100 2.25%
60 4% 95 2.05%
1.85%
40 3% 90
1.65%
20 2% 85 1.45%
0 1% 80 1.25%
Jan-93 Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19
BKX Rel. SPX 10-Year BKX Rel. SPX 10-Year
Disparity between Average Top & Bottom Quartiles 2018 Stock Price Performance
in Price Performance
80% 75% 75%
70%
68%
70%
62%
59%
60%
52% 52% 53% 52% 50%
50%
50% 47% 46%
40% 39% 40%
40% 36% 37%
33% 32%
30%
27% 27% 28%
30% 23% 25%
23%
20% 14%
10%
0%
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Source: Barclays Research , S&P Global Market Intelligence, and Refinitiv
 Valuation
P/Es have come under pressure of late, despite a sound backdrop
Price/Earnings Current P/E Relative to 20yr Average
Forward P/E Relative P/E 0x
19x 140%
-1x
17x 120%
15x 100% -2x
13x 80% -3x

11x 60%
-4x
9x 40%
-5x
7x 20%
5x 0% -6x
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
Banks Relative to SPX
P/E Multiple Drivers

Intangibles Tangibles
•Strategic positioning •Revenue growth •Returns
•Management •Revenue mix •Organic vs. acquired growth
•Invest to remain competitive for •Balance sheet strength/ mix •Consistent, predictable,
the long run •Cost discipline repeatable results
•Avoid unreasonable risk •Consolidation candidate •Geography
•Risk perceptions •Size/diversification •Liquidity
•Credibility
Source: Barclays Research and Refinitiv
 Valuation
As ROEs improve, so should price/tangible book multiples
Price/Tangible Book Banks P/TBV and ROTCE
Banks P/TBV Relative P/TBV ROTCE P/TBV
4.0x 130% 25% 3.5x
3.5x 120%
20% 3.0x
3.0x 110%
100% 15% 2.5x
2.5x
90%
2.0x 10% 2.0x
80%
1.5x 5% 1.5x
70%
1.0x 60%
0% 1.0x
0.5x 50%
0.0x 40% -5% 0.5x
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Banks Relative to SPX ROTCE P/TBV
Industry ROTCE vs. P/TBV (1984 – 4Q18) 2019E ROTCE vs. Current P/TBV
4.0x P/TBV y = 35.581x2 + 2.286x + 1.0244 P/TBV y = 0.3552e8.863x
R² = 0.5762 3.0x R² = 0.7919
3.5x
BK
3.0x 2.5x
NTRS USB MTB
2.5x BBT STT
2.0x
2.0x JPM
STI CMA
HBAN
1.5x PNCWFCBAC RF
1.5x
FITBKEY
MS
CFG COF
1.0x 1.0x C GS
ALLY
0.5x
ROTCE 0.5x
0.0x 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2019E ROTCE
Source: Barclays Research, FDIC and Refinitiv Priced March 22, 2019.
 Valuation
The bigger you are, the lower your multiple, though the gap has narrowed of late
U.S. Large-Cap Historical Valuation Ranges
Relative to Price/Tangible Book
Forward P/E Price/Book Value Dividend Yield
S&P Value
Long- Long- Long- Long- Long-
Curr Term High Low Curr Term Curr Term High Low Curr Term High Low Curr Term High Low
Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg
Money Centers 8.5x 10.9x 24.1x 5.1x 53% 66% 1.04x 1.35x 4.38x 0.29x 1.26x 1.50x 4.84x 0.38x 2.6% 2.0% 15.3% 0.4%
Super Regionals 9.1x 12.2x 30.8x 6.4x 57% 74% 1.17x 1.55x 3.94x 0.45x 1.55x 1.92x 5.23x 0.60x 3.5% 2.5% 12.9% 0.6%
Trust Banks 11.2x 15.0x 33.9x 5.0x 69% 91% 1.51x 2.12x 7.59x 0.80x 2.32x 2.81x 8.40x 1.03x 2.6% 1.8% 7.6% 0.6%
Large-Cap 9.3x 12.3x 29.7x 5.9x 58% 74% 1.19x 1.58x 4.54x 0.46x 1.59x 1.94x 5.57x 0.61x 3.2% 2.3% 12.7% 0.5%
S&P 500 16.1x 16.5x 28.5x 11.0x 3.35x 2.78x 5.17x 1.54x 3.35x 2.78x 5.17x 1.54x 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.1%
S&P 500 Banks vs. Financials Absolute & Relative Dividend Yield
25% Yields Relative
16%
250%
20% 14%
12% 200%
15%
10%
150%
8%
10%
6% 100%
5% 4%
50%
2%
0%
0% 0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
S&P 500 Banks S&P 500 Financials
Dividend Yield 10Yr Trate Relative to SPX
S&P made some changes to the GICS structure at the end of Feb, 2014 where they reclassified certain financial
companies from diversified financials to banks, including C, JPM, and BAC.
Source: Barclays Research, Federal Reserve, S&P, and Refinitiv
Company Intelligence
Guidance Grid

Guidance grid — forward looking disclosures
Money Center Banks
NIM/NII Balance Sheet Fees/Revenues Expenses Asset Quality Capital Other
Money Center Banks
NCOs to remain around $1bn BAC expects to at the minimum
1Q19 negatively impacted by ~$200mn
1Q Expenses seasonally up vs. 4Q - will range on a quarterly basis through sustain its current payout ratio in
for two less days. 1Q19 NIM to edge up For 2019, effective tax rate ~19% ex.
BAC a little bit driven by loan growth,
include $500mn seasonal personnel 2019, and provision to roughly CCAR 2019 (was above 100% at time
unusual items.
costs, mostly payroll tax. match NCOs, depending on loan of CCAR 2018 submission, now closer
funded by low-cost deposits.
growth. to 95%).
For full year 2019, C expects flattish
reported fee income as 2018 benefited 1Q19 expenses are expected to be down
C expects to generate at least $2bn of
from one-time gains such Hilton and Visa slightly y-o-y while 2019 expenses are Effective tax rate of 23% for 2019. Expects
net interest revenue growth in 2019, Medium-term, NCL expectations
B gains. For 1Q19, C expects trading expected to be 'flattish'. It expects 1H19 Expects to achieve an ROTCE of 12% a modest pretax quarterly loss in
C even with fewer rate hikes (C assumes
revenues to be down high single digits y- expenses to be higher than 2H19 due to
are 3-3.25% in U.S. branded cards
in 2019 and 13.5%-plus in 2020. Corporate/Other in 2019. 4Q18 legal RPL
1 rate hike in 2019). Retail deposit and 5-5.25% in retail services.
o-y. IB revenues are expected to be down higher comp expenses and it pulling was $1.0bn (unch’d from 3Q18).
betas in 2019 to increase.
q-o-q, but higher y-o-y driven by M&A some costs forward into the year.
and IG debt issuance.
2019 Effective tax rate expected to be ~22-
23% ex. equity-based compensation and
Benchmark debt maturities Investment banking transaction backlog
The rate of expense in 2019 should slow discrete items. Legal RPL was $1.9bn at
GS expected to outpace benchmark decreased compared with the end of
relative to 2018 (+12%; +9% ex legal). 4Q18 (projected “neighborhood of about
issuance in 2019, as deposits grow. 3Q18.
$2bn” on 4Q18 EPS call; was $1.8bn at
3Q18).
Expects credit card losses in 2019
1Q19 Net interest income to be Markets revenue for 1Q19 is expected to JPM has a 17% medium-term ROTCE
1Q19 Expense to be up mid-single digits y- to remain relatively stable or
approximately flat sequentially, be lower high-teens percentage y-o-y on target. It expects a 75-100% net Legal RPL was $1.5bn at 4Q18, down
JPM market dependent. Expects NII of over a reported basis and low double digits ex
o-y. 2019 expenses are expected to be less slightly higher than the 3.10%
payout ratio over the medium term $0.1bn from 3Q18.
than $66bn. recorded in 2018. 2019 NCOs
$58bn in 2019. accounting changes. though it sees 90%+ in 2019.
remain below $5.5bn.
In trading, Jan. and 1Q19 off to a "good
start". FICC has benefitted from a
realignment of relationships that broke Expects its Wealth Management pre-tax
Expects its lending activities to grow
down in Dec. In equities, it is seeing good margin to rebound from the 24% level MS has established an ROE target of Expects its 2019 tax rate to be in the 22-
MS through further penetration of its IS
client engagement. QTD prime balances seen in 4Q18 despite the drop in advisory 10-13% (11.5%-14.5% ROTCE). 23% area.
and WM client base.
are up from Dec, but down 15% from a assets last quarter.
strong 1Q18. IB pipelines and backlogs
remain healthy.

Trust Banks
Trust Banks
QTD, interest-bearing deposits are Expects Pershing to return to revenue
Excluding notable items, BK expects 1Q19
relatively flat compared to 4Q18. In growth in the near future. After 1Q19, Expects to record an additional Expects reasonable EPS growth in 2019
expenses to be up 1-2% y-o-y and q-o-q.
1Q19 Net interest income to be flat to addition, BK expects the Pershing will have overlapped the impact loan loss provision relating to (ex. notable items). 2019 effective tax rate
BK up compared to 4Q18. noninterest-bearing deposits to of losing two larger clients. OM fee
Does not expect its 2019 expense base to
PPG&E exposure of $20-$30mn ~21%. 2019 legal RPL was $900mn, flat
be significantly higher than 2018 (ex.
continue to tick down as interest revenue for 1Q19 impacted by lower ($0.02) in 1Q19. with 3Q18.
notable items).
rates increase. markets and outflows from 4Q18.
In 4Q18, a client exit (U.S. corp. cash
For 1Q19, a smaller B/S shoud be offset
custody relationship) with ~$90bn AUC
with a yield pickup from the 4Q18's Expenses tend to be seasonally higher in
only partially impacted 4Q18 custody
rate hike. It expects $10mn-$11mn of For 1Q19, its balance sheet is 1Q given higher stock-based
revenues (full impact in 1Q19). It has NTRS is always looking at
FX swap income in 1Q19 vs. $17-$18mn expected to be smaller due to a compensation. It noted that the stock At 4Q18, the upper end of the range of
NTRS in 4Q18. Given this, it expects to give decrease in noninterest-bearing
seen lower activity in market-related and
base comp in 2018 (+$35mn in 1Q18)
acquisitions that can accelerate its
RPL was $20mn ($20mn at 3Q18).
trading revenues similar to peers in 1Q19. strategies.
up ~$9mn of NII in 1Q19 vs. $14mn in deposits. and 2017 (+$35mn in 1Q17) would be
It highlighted brokerage, securities
4Q18. As a result, 1Q19 NII should be in a good proxy for 2019.
lending and FX activity being slightly
the area of 4Q18 or slightly higher.
lower q-o-q and lower y-o-y.
Expects to see low- to mid-single-digit
STT expects fee revenues to decline 3-4% Expects its 2019 tax rate to be 17-19%,
NII growth in 2019 (assuming 0 to 1 Fed STT resumed share purchase in 1Q19
in 1Q19 q-o-q with servicing fees down 2- Expects to reduce 1Q19 expense by 1.5% though 1Q19 could be closer to 19-20%.
hike and rising deposit beta from and may repurchase up to $600mn
2.5%, management fees down 3-4%, from 4Q18’s core level, excluding the Legal RPL at 4Q18 jumped to $0-$300mn
STT current 50% range). Still, in 1Q19, it
trading businesses 7-8% lower and a seasonality of its compensation for
through 2Q19. It expects a totoal
($0-$45mn in 3Q18). It expects to pay at
expects a 3% decline given two less payout ratio substantially greater
modest down tick in processing and retirement-eligible employees. least $380mn (+$20mn) for past invoicing
days and the absence of a $6mn than 80% in CCAR 2019.
other fees. issues.
hedging gain that aided 4Q18.

Super Regionals
In Feb 2019, ALLY raised $1.0bn
2019 Total adjusted net revenue growth 2019 Adjusted efficiency ratio flat to 2019 Retail auto NCOs at the low
ALLY through a private securitization
of 4-6%. down 1%. end of 1.4-1.6% range.
2019 Core ROTCE of 12-13%-plus. 2019 Adjusted EPS growth of 7-10%.
backed by retail auto loans.
1Q19 NIM: relatively flat with 4Q18
1Q19 NCOs: 0.35-0.45% (0.38% in Suspended share repurchases 1Q19 Tax rate: 20-21%. Expects to close
BBT (3.49% in 4Q18). Core NIM: up slightly 1Q19 Loans: up 1-3% annualized. 1Q19 Fee income: up 3-5% y-o-y. 1Q19 Expenses: up 1-3% y-o-y.
4Q18). pending closing MoE deal. MoE with STI in late 3Q19/4Q19.
from 4Q18 (3.40% in 4Q18).
Expects further increases in average

Expects the full year operating efficiency
deposit costs, driven by product mix As the cycle plays out, COF As the cycle plays out, COF
(net of adjustments) ratio to improve Legal and mortgage RPL was $1.1bn at
COF shift as well as increasing competition. continues to expect that auto loan
modestly in 2019, excluding WMT launch
continues to expect that auto NCO
4Q18 (+$350mn).
Increases in deposit costs is expected growth will moderate. rate will increase gradually.
and integration expenses.
be a headwind to NIM.
1Q19 CET1: 10.5% (10.6% at 4Q18).

1Q19 Expenses: up low- to mid-single On Jan 29, it issued $300mn of
1Q19 Net interest margin: broadly 1Q19 Average loans up slightly 1Q19 Fee income: relatively stable given
CFG stable. better than 1.0%. seasonal impacts.
digits given seasonal compensation 1Q19 Provision: relatively stable. 6.350% preferreds. Preferred divd: 1Q19 Tax rate: about 22.75%.
impacts. $12mn preferred dividend paid in
1Q19.
2019 Average loans: growth of 2- 2019 Tax rate: 23%, ex. impact from
2019 Net interest income: growth of 4- 2019 Loan loss provision: 15-
4%. Average deposits: decline of 1- 2019 Expenses: lower by 3% reflecting the 2019 Capital target: CET1 ratio of 9.5- employee stock transactions. RPL for
CMA 5% from the full-year net benefit of
2% from a decrease in noninterest-
2019 Fee income: higher by 2-3%.
end of GEAR Up restructuring charges.
25bps. Net charge-offs: remain
10.0%. legal was $0-$33mn at 4Q18 (unchanged
higher interest rates. low.
bearing deposits. from 3Q18).
1Q19 (ex MBFI) Loans & Leases:
1Q19 (ex MBFI) Net interest income: 1Q19 (ex MBFI) Expenses: up 1.5-2% y-o-y Criticized assets flat to be slightly Targeting a CET1 of 9% over the
commercial up 1%, consumer stable 1Q19 (ex MBFI) Fee income: stable y-o-y 2019 Tax 21-22%. Expects to close its
FITB down 1.5-2% from 4Q18. MBFI
with 4Q18, implying total loans at $553mn.
to $1,007mn-$1,012mn. Targeting an higher in 2019 as asset quality medium-term. Targeting a 4Q19
purchase of MBFI in 1Q19 on March 22.
expected to add 6-8bps to its core NIM. efficiency ratio of <55% by 4Q19. begins to normalize. 17.5% ROTCE and 1.50% ROA.
+0.6%.
2019 Net charge-offs: below
2019 Expenses: up 2-4% to $2.70-
0.35%. For 1Q19, it expects NCOs Continues to manage its CET1 to 9%-
2019 Net interest margin: GAAP flat, 2019 Average loans: up 4-6%. 2019 Revenues: up 4-7% to $4.72- $2.75bn. 1H19 efficeincy ratio (stock 2019 Tax rate: 15.5-16.5%. Legal RPL was
HBAN core up modestly. Average deposits: up 4-6%. $4.86bn. comp expense) tends to be higher than
to be near the bottom of its 10% range, with a bias towards the
$30mn at 4Q18 (same as 3Q18).
through the cycle range of 0.35%- upper end.
2H19, with it peaking in 2Q.
0.55%.
2019 Average loans: $90-$91bn.
2019 Fee income: $2.5-$2.6bn. 1Q 2019 Expenses: $3.85-$3.95bn. Increased
2019 Net interest income: $4.0-$4.1bn Average deposits: $108-$109bn.
seasonally weaker given typical employee benefit cost, will likely elevate 2019 NCOs: below 0.40-0.60%.
KEY assuming no rate hikes. 1Q seasonally ASU 2016-02 (leasing) change is
slowdown in capital markets activity personnel expense by about $30mn in Provision: slightly exceeds NCOs.
2019 Tax rate: 18-19%.
weaker given the lower day count. expected to gross up the balance
from strong 4Q levels. 1Q19.
sheet by $700mn (8bps) in 1Q19.
Outlook for its fee businesses (ex

Expects low nominal growth (1-2%) in
Expects overall average loan growth mortgage) calls for growth in the low
total operating expenses in 2019
in 2019 in the low single digit (1-2%) single-digit range, ex trust revenues -
compared to 2018, excluding the $135mn Outlook for credit quality remains Expects to continue to manage Expects an effective tax rate of 25% for
Expects y-o-y growth in net interest range. Loan growth trends in 1Q19 growing at a mid-single digit pace or
MTB income in 2019. have been better than 1Q18 and better. On Jan 31, MTB purchased 13.3bn
litigation reserve in 2018. Recent MSR balanced. Thinks NCOs have to go capital levels toward the lower end of 2019. 4Q18 Litigation RPL was $0-$50mn
purchases are expected to add $40mn of up at some point. the peer group. ($0-$50mn at 3Q18) above reserves.
1Q17 with lower paydowns and of residential MSRs for $146mn (transfer
expenses to 2019 (includes amortization
higher originations. in 2Q19). For 2019, MSR purchases should
and dollar expenses).
add $60mn of revenue

Super Regionals (continued)
1Q19 Net interest income: stable. NIM
(not NII) to bounce around current
levels through the course of the year. 1Q19 Fee income: down low single digits. 1Q19 Loan loss provision: $125- 4Q18 Legal RPL to ~$125mn (~$125mn at
PNC Flat scenario should lead to some NIM
1Q19 Average loans: stable.
Other noninterest income: $275-$325mn.
1Q19 Noninterest expense: stable.
175mn. 3Q18).
expansion relative to the 3.92% in
4Q18.
2019 Effective tax rate: 20-22%. Legal RPL,
2019 Adjusted average loans: low
including RJF related contingencies and
Expects deposit beta to continue to single digit growth. ASU 2016-02 will Expects adjusted revenue growth of 2-4% 2019 Adjusted expenses: relatively stable 2019 Adjusted net charge-offs:
RF rise. add $451mn (4bps of CET1) of right in 2019. with 2018. 0.40-0.50%.
It continues to target a CET1 of 9.5%. its indemnification obligation related to
Morgan Keegan, was up to $20mn (same
of use assets in 1Q19.
as 3Q18).
NIM will be generally stable in 1Q19
Investment banking and lending Expects operating losses to come in 1Q19 2019 NCO range of 25-30 bps. ALLL STI repurchased $250mn shares in
(was 3.27% in 4Q18) though will be Loan growth will likely continue to Effective tax rate to be ~ 19%, or 20-21%
pipelines are solid, and it feels well below 4Q18 level of $39mn, though ratio to generally stabilize - 1Q19 prior to suspension of
STI dependent on loan growth and overall modestly outpace deposit growth
positioned to meet clients’ needs, both in above the roughly ~$20mn level seen in provision expense to modestly buybacks with BBT MoE
on an FTE basis in 2019. 4Q18 Legal RPL
balance sheet trends. Deposit cost to throughout 2019. up to $150mn (-$10mn).
benign and more challenging markets. prior quarters. exceed NCOs, given loan growth. announcement.
continue to trend upwards.
2019 fee revenue is expected to increase
Expects CRE balances to decline q-o-
in the low single digits y-o-y, including
q in 1Q19. Loan growth is typically
the negative impact of the sale of the ATM Expense growth in 2019 to be relatively in- Credit quality to be very stable in Tax rate to be in the range of 20%-21% in
1Q19 NII to increase in the low single slower in 1Q and strengthens
business. For 1Q19, 1Q fee income line with 2018 (core +2.7% y-o-y). For 2019 as it expects its NCO rate to Continues to target a CET1 ratio 8.5% 2019. USB believes its legal RPL will not
USB digits on a y-o-y, but now expects it to throughout the year as activity
growth in the low single digits y-o-y but 1Q19, it expects to achieve 1%-1.5% of stay around 50bps. Its provision is (9.1% in 4Q18). be material to its financial condition
be down q-o-q picks up. An accounting change
expects to be at the lower end due to positive operating leverage. expected to track loan growth. (same as 3Q18).
added $1.3bn of lease assets (3bps
lower card revenues (slower spending
of CET1) in 1Q19.
and less billing days).
1Q Loan growth tends to be
seasonally slower. Still, WFC Advertising and promotion, travel and
optimistic about growing loans in WFC’s retail brokerage advisory assets are entertainment, and outside professional 1H19 share repurchase level will Effective income tax rate for the full year
2019. Planning to operate under the priced at the beginning of the quarter, so services are typically seasonally higher in Not seeing any significant likely trail that of 2H18. 2019 to be approximately 18%. WFC lost
WFC thinks it can grow NII in 2019. Still,
asset cap through end of 2019. 4Q18 results reflected the higher 4Q. On track to achieve its operating evidence of significant increase in Implementation of CECL and the its well-known seasoned issuer status
WFC loan growth and deposit pricing
Expects to close on the sale of September 30th market valuations and expense targets of $52-$53bn in 2019 and delinquencies or stress capital buffer (SCB) could with the SEC. High end of the range of its
remain key for NII upside.
$2.4bn Pick-a-Pay PCI loans in 1Q19 results will reflect the lower $50-$51bn in 2020. In 2019, amortization criticized/classified loans. suggest an upward bias to its current litigation RPL rose to $2.7bn at 4Q18
1Q19. In 1Q19, ASU 2016-02 December 31st market valuations. is expected to drop by $958mn ($0.17) to stated CET1 target of 10%. (+$500mn from 3Q18).
(leasing) will increase assets by $376mn.
$5bn (5bps of CET1).

Bull, Bear, Blurry
The following slides list the market’s bullish and bearish thoughts on each
company, in addition to areas where investors have questions

Ally Financial (ALLY)
Bull
• Very active share repurchase at a relatively low valuation
• Expected continued ROTCE expansion and earnings growth over the next few years
• Replacing unsecured debt maturities with lower cost deposits should aid net interest margin
• Retail auto losses expected to remain at the low end of the 1.4-1.6% range for the intermediate term
• Trades at some of the lowest P/E and price/book multiples in our coverage
Bear
• Concentrated exposure to the automobile industry
• Chrysler potentially taking financing in-house (~25% of originations)
• Sensitive to declines in used vehicle prices, though already models in a 3-5% decline
• While stable now, credit costs could increase in an economic downturn
• Expense growth remains relatively elevated as it invests in broadening its consumer product offering
Blurry
• The business model is sensitive to credit risk. Are there any signs of consumer credit turning?
• Online deposits are a key factor in its funding base. Will deposit rates continue to rise despite stable interest rates?
• Operating leverage has been pressured as it invests in new products. How quickly can this improve?

Ally Financial (ALLY)
Branch Map Auto Loans by Geography LOB Revenue Mix
Mortgage Corporate
ALLY Consumer automotive Finance and Other
53% 5%
3%
Corporate
Finance
4%
13%
9% 8%
5% 4% 4% 4%
TX FL CA PA GA IL NC Other
ALLY‘ has no branches Automotive
ALLY's portfolio of $70.5bn consumer automotive receivables Finance &
and loans by state. Insurance
88%
Loan Mix Deposit Mix

Mix Mix
60% 60% 51%
48%
50% 50% 41%
40% 35% 40%
30%
30%
20%
20% 12% 6%
10% 0% 2% 0%
10% 3% 1%
0% 0% 0%
0% Demand NOW/Trans MMDA & Time Jumbo Time Foreign
C&I CRE C&D Resi Mtge Card Other Other Savings Deposits Deposits
Consumer =<$250K >$250K
Source: Barclays Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence, and Company reports
Bank of America (BAC)
Bull
• Should grow NII in 2019 even as the Fed paused rate hikes this year
• Perceived to be highly levered to the U.S. economy
• More levers remain on expenses (~$53bn annual core expense run rate for the intermediate term)
• Strong excess capital position should allow for elevated payout ratio looking out
• Attractive core deposit franchise
Bear
• Deposit betas could move faster than peers (Wealth Mgmt, non-oper. deposits are highly rate sensitive)
• Loan growth hampered by a still sizable run-off book (~$60bn-plus or ~6% of total, running off at $4-$6bn/qtr)
• Overall credit costs near inflection (releases at/near the end) and consumer losses could accelerate from here
• Perceived to have above average sensitivity
• FICC trading revenues has been weak of late for the industry, and could remain sluggish for some time
Blurry
• Reducing branch count across franchise, but still moving into new markets and competing with digital banking
• Lack of clarity re ROI and revenue generating capacity from its sizable tech spend
• Outsized exposure to cards, auto, and home equity could drive credit costs higher should the consumer falter
• NIM might remain range-bound in the near-term, despite recent rate hikes
• Interest rate positioning unclear
Bank of America (BAC)
Branch Map Deposit Mix & Rank LOB Revenue Mix
CB: Consumer
BAC Consumer Banking:
Lending Deposits
29% 18% 23%
23%
14%
9% 9% Global
7% 6% 4% Wealth &
Investment
Manageme
Global
nt
CA NC TX FL NY MA NJ Other Banking
21%
21%
1 1 2 1 5 1 1 - Global
Markets
17%

Mix 29% Mix
30% 25% 60% 52%
25% 22% 50%
20% 40% 30%
13% 30%
15%
20%
10% 6% 9% 6%
5% 10% 2% 1%
5% 1% 0%
BB&T Corp (BBT)
Bull
• Merger of equals with STI should help improve its competitive position as it aims to use lever technology to take on larger rivals
• Revenue growth should benefit from strong emphasis on loan growth and fee income focus in 2019
• See more catalysts in its Insurance business with the potential for better pricing and synergies from the RF deal
• Core expenses should remain flat in 2019 (vs. 2018)
• Fed consent order could be lifted relatively soon
Bear
• Deposit betas are relatively low, but could increase from here
• GAAP NIM could still see some pressure in 2019 from declining purchase accounting accretion
• Share repurchases suspended pending the closing of MoE with STI (late 3Q19/early 4Q19)
• MOE with STI adds significant execution risk, as the combined company will have a new name/brand and new HQ
Blurry
• Asset quality likely won’t get any better, but trends are expected to remain relatively benign
• “Disrupt to Thrive “ initiative adds execution risk
• MOE with STI calls for management team mash up (top mgmt. level includes 7 execs. from each firm) and planned CEO
succession with STI’s Rogers taking over for Kelly in September of 2021

BB&T Corp (BBT)
Insurance
Holdings Community
BBT and Banking
Premium Retail and
31%
Finance Consumer
17% Finance
Financial 43%
17% Services
14%
11% and
8% 7% 6% 5% Comm'l
Finance
17%
NC VA FL PA GA MD SC Other Community
Banking
3 3 8 7 5 6 3 - Comm'l
23%

Mix Mix
25% 22% 60% 53%
20% 21%
20% 18% 50%
40% 33%
15% 12%
30%
10% 20%
4% 4% 7% 4%
10% 0%
5% 2%
0%
BNY Mellon (BK)
Bull
• Relatively new CEO Charlie Scharf brings a new perspective to the trust bank business model (V CEO, JPM exec)
• Operating margins should continue to expand as recent investments drive positive operating leverage
• Potential changes to SLR benefit trust banks more than traditional banks
• Has high % of recurring revenues (both fee and NII), low RWA model, and high returns (ROTCE over 20%)
• Given its less intensive capital business model, it can continue to return significant amounts of capital
• Investments are becoming increasingly more global and complex, increasing BK’s importance to clients
Bear
• Asset Servicing has faced continued pricing pressure as products are commoditized between competitors
• Fell behind peers in tech spend during activist regime and now playing catch-up
• Organic growth has been very modest despite a bull market
• Deposit run-off from higher interest rates should continue to be a drag on NII
Blurry
• Focused on driving organic growth… but has not provided any targets or timeline for growth
• Results have benefited from capital markets appreciation, increased interest rates, and higher FX volatility. Can that all
continue?
• What new business areas does BK expand into under new CEO?

BNY Mellon (BK)
Revenues by Geography Revenue Mix LOB Revenue Mix
EMEA Issuer Other
Investment
26% Services Fees NII Mmgt
(UK is 16% 6% 8% 22% 25%
of total, or
61% of Clearing
EMEA) Services
9%
Securities
Lending
APAC
7% 1%
U.S. FX &
Asset &
63% Other Other
4% Wealth
Trading Asset Investment
Mgmt
5% Servicing Services
22%
27% 75%

Mix Mix
80% 45% 42%
69%
70% 40%
35%
60% 30%
50% 23%
25%
40% 20% 13%
15% 11%
30% 8%
17% 10% 4%
20% 5%
4% 3% 1% 5%
10% 0% 0%
Capital One (COF)
Bull
• National scale businesses in Card and Auto
• Solid deposit-gathering franchise with both online and retail presence
• Recent WMT agreement adds a significant retail partner
• Sustained investments in technology create competitive advantages
• Loan growth has exceeded peers driven by strength in consumer products
• ‘Growth math’ suggests recent large loan reserve build could abate
• Trades at one of the lowest P/E multiples in our coverage universe
Bear
• Credit costs could increase due to portfolio seasoning and cyclicality, as well as above-average subprime exposure
• Capital distribution below peers
• No clear successor to CEO and founder Rich Fairbank (age ~68)
• Competition has been intense in both its credit card and auto businesses
• Deposit beta has been higher than peers amid direct bank focus
Blurry
• Despite significant investments in technology, tangible benefits have been hard to discern. Which metrics can outside investors
use to evaluate the impact of these investments?
• Online deposits are a key factor in its funding base. How can deposit rates be controlled in a competitive deposit environment?
• Competition continues to ramp up particularly in the high end revolver segment. How is COF differentiating itself from other
competitors in this segment? What is the impact of recent WMT win?
Capital One (COF)
Other
1% Consumer
COF Banking
41% 26%
17% 15%
10% 10%
6%
1% 0%
Credit Card Commercial
NY LA VA MD TX NJ DC Other 63% Banking
10%
7 1 5 5 9 11 8 -
State Deposit mix is adjusted for credit-card related deposits in DE.

Mix Mix
50% 80% 73%
44%
70%
40% 60%
50%
30% 23% 40%
20% 30%
14% 12% 14%
20% 9%
10% 7% 10% 2% 2% 0%
1% 0% 0%
Citigroup (C)
Bull
• Completed wind-down of non-core assets and now focused on driving revenue growth in core assets
• ROTCE expected to steadily improve to closer to peer levels
• Very active share repurchase in CCAR 2018 and expected to continue into CCAR 2019
• Trades at one of the lowest price tangible/book multiple vs. U.S. peers, while having one of the highest CCAR 2018 total yield in
our coverage
• Diverse business lines across diverse geographies provides ample growth opportunities
Bear
• Branded card business revenue growth challenged of late
• Emerging market growth is slowing (~50% of loans in EM)
• Too small of a branch network to capitalize on positive consumer/commercial trends across the U.S.
• Too many businesses across too many geographies creates too many potential problems
Blurry
• What is the impact of tariffs/trade war headlines on emerging markets footprint?
• Does FICC revenues rebound after years of slowdown (~75% of total trading revenue)?
• Does consumer credit remain benign (25% of outstanding loans are credit card)?
• Does need a more robust U.S. retail branch footprint to be effective?
Citigroup (C)
Corporate / GCB: Retail
C Other Banking
50% 3% 19%
GCB: Cards
27% ICG:
Corporate
25% Lending
3%
9% 6%
3% 2% 2% 4% Institutional
Clients
ICG: Private Group (ex.
NY CA FL IL CT DC NJ Other Bank Corp
5% Lending,
2 5 5 10 6 5 14 - Private
Bank)
State Deposit mix is adjusted for credit-card related deposits in SD. 43%

Mix Mix
40% 60% 54%
34%
35% 50%
30% 25% 25% 40%
25% 26%
30%
20%
15% 11% 20% 10%
10% 10% 5% 2% 3%
2% 1% 3%
5% 0%
Citizens Financial (CFG)
Bull
• Recently raised its ROTCE target to 14-16% after reaching its previous goal of 13-15%
• Driving positive operating leverage through TOP efficiency programs
• Loan growth has been above peers as it implements its strategic initiatives
• Valuation is attractive on a P/TBV basis
• Excess capital position supports increasing capital deployment
Bear
• Deposit beta tracking above peers
• Continued technology investment could weigh on expense levels
• Return on equity continues to lag peers
• Faster loan growth now could lead to credit concerns in the future
• Relatively more asset-sensitive balance sheet could be a drag if rates were to decline
Blurry
• Capital levels remain above peers. Will this lead to faster share repurchases, dividends or M&A?
• Besides deposits, overall funding costs have increased as senior debt issuance has increased. Are there any more
changes to the funding mix on the horizon?
• CFG has invested in building out fee income businesses, particularly wealth, mortgage and treasury solutions. When should
we expect to see an acceleration in revenues from these investments?
Citizens Financial (CFG)
Other
CFG 1%
31% Commercial
25% Banking
33%
10% 10% 9%
7% 5% 5%
Consumer
MA PA RI OH NY NH MI Other Banking
66%
2 4 1 7 18 1 9 -

Mix Mix
35% 31% 80% 73%
30% 70%
60%
25% 20%
18% 50%
20% 17% 40%
15% 10% 30%
20% 12%
10% 6% 5% 4%
3% 10% 0%
5% 2% 0%
Comerica (CMA)
Bull
• Franchise value with aging CEO (70 years old)
• Potential participant in a more active M&A/MOE market
• Beneficiary of SIFI change
• Large excess capital results in heavy share repurchase
Bear
• Deposit beta has lagged peers and could potentially converge towards median
• Succession uncertainty
• P/E multiple well above historical levels
• Loan growth has lagged peers of late
• Asset-sensitive balance sheet could weigh in a declining rate environment
Blurry
• Thoughts on succession?
• Deposit beta has significantly lagged peers. Could that accelerate? Any plans to reduce asset sensitivity?
• Loan growth has lagged the industry of late. Why? What is the outlook? Thoughts on the competitive landscape?

Comerica (CMA)
Finance;
CMA Wealth Other Retail Bank
51% Mgmt 1% 21%
13%
31%
17%
1% 1%
MI CA TX AZ FL
Business
2 13 10 24 93 Bank
65%

Mix Mix
60% 54% 60% 51%
50% 50% 43%
40% 40%
30%
30%
15% 18% 20%
20%
7% 10% 1% 3% 1% 1%
10% 4%
1% 1% 0%
Fifth Third (FITB)
Bull
• Acquisition of MBFI increases FITB scale in Chicago market, giving FITB’s commercial bank more access to middle-market
customers (pro forma 20% of Chicago market) with cost saving opportunities
• Project NorthStar should drive base improvements in core expenses and revenues, accelerating returns
• Recently announced acquisition and expense program expected push ROTCE to over 18%
• Has been more aggressive with fintech partnerships/investments than other regional banks
Bear
• Recently announced acquisition of MBFI was at large premium (2.8x TBV), increasing FITB’s presence in already crowded
Chicago market while creating integration risk going forward
• Project NorthStar is a “grey-box”, where it is tough to differentiate its benefits from baseline growth
• Its efficiency ratio is at the high end of comps as positive operating leverage has lagged vs. peers
• Trades at a relatively high P/TBV compared to its current ROTCE
Blurry
• With MBFI deal approved and closed, will cost synergies go as planned?
• Project NorthStar remains on track… though benefits are expected to show during 2019
• Can its fintech partnerships and investments create a competitive advantage?
• Does commercial loan growth pick up (C&I makes up ~40% of loan portfolio vs. peer average at 26%)?

Fifth Third (FITB)
Consumer Other
FITB Lending 6%
7%
38%
Wealth and Branch
Asset Mgmt Banking
21% 9% 40%
14%
9% 7% 5% 3% 3%
OH IL MI FL IN KY NC Other
Commercial
3 5 5 12 3 3 12 - Banking
38%
Branch Map and Deposit Mix & Rank are pro forma for MBFI acquisition..

Mix Mix
45% 40% 90% 83%
40% 80%
35% 70%
30% 60%
25% 50%
17% 18% 40%
20% 30%
15% 11% 20%
6% 7% 4% 6%
10% 5% 4% 10% 1% 0%
5% 0%
Goldman Sachs (GS)
Bull
• New CEO David Solomon will bring necessary changes to GS’s business model (unveiling business review findings this spring)
• Benefits of tax reform and strong global growth should lead to increased investment banking activity
• GS’s $5bn revenue initiative is diversifying its business lines and should bring more consistency to results
• After years of slowdown, trading revenues may have bottomed with expectations of volume/volatility returning
• Trading below its historical average P/E and P/TBV multiples
Bear
• 1MDB will be a constant headline overhang and could result in significant penalties/reputational risk
• Unpredictable trading revenues make up too much of its revenue base (~40% of revenues)
• I&L is large contributor to results but is not well understood
• GS is getting into consumer lending, through Marcus, late in the credit cycle
Blurry
• What new businesses will new CEO expand into? What areas will it continue to invest in? Any potential M&A?
• What fines, penalties and reputational damage will result from 1MDB?
• GS’s $5bn revenue plan is “on track” and has already completed 50%…but still tough to monitor improvement
• Have trading revenues bottomed? Does volume and volatility continue to increase?
• When does GS expect Marcus to become a larger driver of net income?
Goldman Sachs (GS)
Other NII
Principal 11% Investment Investing &
Transactio Mgmt Lending
ns 19% 23%
EMEA
25% 14%
Investment
Banking
22%
Americas
61%
Market Investment
Making Banking;
Asia (incl 27% Institutional
Australia & Comm & Investment Client
Fees Mgmt Services
NZ)
8% 18% 58%
14%

Mix 57% Mix
60% 60% 50%
50% 50%
40% 40%
26%
30% 20%
30%
20% 20%
20%
10% 10% 2% 2%
10% 5% 6% 0%
2% 0% 0%
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)
Bull
• FMER acquisition will continue to accelerate returns for HBAN going forward as revenue synergies fully kick in
• With FMER acquisition completed, its capital return has increased meaningfully
• Loan growth has been above peers, even as industry C&I loans have been slow
• Concerns over its auto exposure are overblown given its focus on super prime (FICO ~760 and LTV ~90%)
• Recently announced new long-term targets including improved its ROTCE expectations to 17-20% (from 15-17%), as well as its
efficiency ratio to 53-56% (from 56-59%)
Bear
• Large concentration of auto loans (17% of portfolio)
• PAA from FMER acquisition will continue to decline and be a drag on NIM
• Fee income only makes up 30% of its revenue base (vs. peers closer to 40%)
• Needs to continue to invest to drive revenue synergies offsetting expense savings
• Paid too large of a premium for FMER acquisition. Capital better used for investing and buybacks
• With FMER assimilation complete, additional acquisitions possible
Blurry
• What can it do to increase fee income as a percent of total revenue? Bolt-on acquisitions?
• Does asset quality remain benign (especially auto)?
• With FMER purchase considered successful, are additional deals on the horizon?

Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)
Vehicle Other
HBAN Finance 1%
9%
64% RBHPCG
8%
20%
5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1%
Consumer
Commercial and
OH MI PA IN IL WV WI Other Banking Business
28% Banking
2 6 18 10 22 6 20 - 54%

Mix Mix
35% 30% 70% 62%
30% 60%
25% 21% 50%
17% 18% 40%
20% 26%
30%
15% 10% 20% 8%
10% 3%
10% 1% 0%
5% 2% 2%
0%
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Bull
• Leading market shares across four franchise businesses
• Proven management team that successfully steered through the last crisis and continues to perform exceptionally well
• Peer leading returns – targeting 17% ROTCE
• Proactively investing in technology and marketing across four franchise businesses to further increase competitive advantage
Bear
• Capital markets sensitivity creates volatility in results
• Well known story and largely owned
• Size and complexity generates additional regulatory scrutiny
• Too big to grow?
• Sensitive to geopolitical risks
Blurry
• Can pace of capital deployment increase under new capital NPRs?
• Will recent growth in card result in increased credit costs further out?
• Is the slowdown in capital markets cyclical or secular?
• How and when will regulatory reform benefit the industry?

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
CCB: Card, CCB:
Commerce Consumer
46% JPM
Solutions & & Business
Auto Banking
19% 22%
CCB: Home
Lending
14% 14% 5%
Commercial
11%
7% Banking
3% 3% 3% Asset & 8%
Wealth
Mgmt Corporate
NY TX CA IL MI FL AZ Other 13% &
Investment
1 1 3 1 1 4 1 - Bank
33%

Mix Mix
35% 32% 45% 41%
30% 40%
25% 35%
25% 30% 25%
18% 25%
20% 15% 18%
20% 12%
15% 15%
10% 10%
4% 5% 5% 2% 2%
5% 1% 0%
KeyCorp (KEY)
Bull
• By the end of 2019, expects to be within its 54-56% cash efficiency target and expenses are expected to be controlled in 2019
(guided down low single digits)
• Markedly different company than it was prior to the financial crisis with much improved risk profile
• Momentum in its Investment Bank and Debt Placement group continues (revenues grew 8% in 2018)
• Screens cheap relative to peers on P/E and P/TBV basis
Bear
• Branch network is spread too thin across the U.S. – Maine to Alaska (tough to drive economies of scale)
• Asset quality underperformed peers during the financial crisis and no proof won’t do the same next downturn
• PAA from FNFG acquisition will continue to decline and be a drag on NIM
• FNFG revenue synergies are behind plan as mortgage originations have been slow in rising rate environment
• Provision may increase faster as its reserve to loan ratio is below the peer group
Blurry
• With FNFG fully integrated, does KEY have any interest in doing another deal to fill-in its branch network?
• Asset quality likely won’t get any better but trends are expected to remain relatively benign
• Will revenue synergies pick up? Expects to get within its long-term expense efficiency target of 54-56% in 2H19

KeyCorp (KEY)
Other
4%
KEY
32%
Key
21% Corporate
18% Bank
35%
10%
6%
4% 4% 4%
Key
NY OH WA PA OR CT CO Other Community
Bank
9 6 5 12 6 8 6 - 61%

Mix Mix 85%
45% 39% 90%
40% 80%
35% 30% 70%
30% 60%
25% 50%
40%
20% 30%
15% 11% 10% 10%
20%
10% 6% 10% 2% 1% 3% 0%
5% 2% 2% 0%
M&T Bank (MTB)
Bull
• More levers to grow fee income including mortgage servicing, trust fees and legacy HCBK markets
• Asset quality had remained relatively stable and much better than peers through credit cycles
• Expect MTB to grow both NIM and NII in 2019 even without Fed rate hikes this year
• After average loans declined in 2018, it expects loans to grow in 2019
• Well positioned to do another acquisition, and deals have historically been accretive
Bear
• Targeting only modest operating leverage in 2019 after delivering 200-400bps in each of the last 3 years
• Legacy HCBK deposit run-off continues (we think $1-plus CD run-off could last thru 2019)
• Behind peers on developing and deploying technology, may need to accelerate tech spend
Blurry
• Deposit beta has significantly lagged peers. Could that accelerate?
• Could return to M&A fuelled growth, but at what price (deals are expensive) and tougher to integrate bigger deals
• Payout ratios already at/near top of peers, with limited upside from here, and return to M&A could temper payout

M&T Bank (MTB)
MTB All Other
Retail
21%
48% Banking
28%
Discretionary
Portfolio
4%
20%
12% 10% Residential
7%
Mtge
1% 1% 1% Business
Banking
5% Banking;
NY MD PA NJ DE DC VA Other Commercial
Banking;
6 2 10 9 3 12 26 - Commercial
Real Estate
42%

Mix Mix
30% 60%
25% 48%
25% 50%
21% 19% 36%
20% 40%
15%
30%
15%
10% 10% 20%
10% 9% 6%
10% 1% 1%
5% 1% 0%
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Bull
• Targets of 10-13% ROE and 11.5-14.5% ROTCE largely achievable
• Post restructuring, FICC business operating from a sustainable footprint, Equities business growing
• Effectively managing expenses with efficiency ratio target of under 73% and 26-28% pre-tax margin in Wealth Management
• U.S. Bank strategy poised to generate significant net interest income growth
• More stable revenue streams in Wealth and Investment Management offset volatility in capital markets
Bear
• U.S. Bank strategy adds potential interest rate and credit risk
• Concentrated risk in capital markets related businesses
• Stock has significantly rerated on a P/TBV basis since mid-2016
• Continues to be relatively more penalized in the CCAR process
Blurry
• Can pace of capital deployment ever increase?
• Is the slowdown in capital markets cyclical or secular? How does the industry cope in a post-MiFID world?
• How soon can benefits from regulatory reform be realized?
• Are technology investments keeping pace with peers? Threat of automation, particularly in Wealth Management?
• Does Investment Management have enough scale to compete?
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Investment NII Investment
s & Other 8% Mgmt
4% 7%
Investment
Americas Trading Banking
73% EMEA 31% 17%
15% Wealth
Mgmt
42%
Institutional
Securities
Asia 51%
12%
Comm & Asset
Fees Mgmt
10% 30%

Mix Mix 76%
60% 80%
48% 70%
50%
60%
40% 50%
40%
30%
19% 30% 17%
20% 12% 12% 20% 7%
8% 10% 0% 0% 0%
10%
0% 0% 0%
Northern Trust (NTRS)
Bull
• Expects to see more (though measured) NIM expansion in 2019, even without the tailwind of Fed rate hikes
• Family/wealth office expansion beginning to bear fruit (green shoots of revenue growth)
• UBS Asset Servicing acquisition built its asset servicing business to scale in key European markets
• Still more expense levers remain, and its Value for Spend program is moving along at an accelerated pace
• We see near term upside to its long-standing 10-15% ROE target (mid/high double-digit ROE likely)
Bear
• Remaining deposit outflows could continue to pressure balance sheet size and net interest income
• Lagged AUM/AUC pricing in its C&IS and WM businesses could weigh on 1Q19 results
• Smallest of the 3 stand-alone trust banks – tough to compete and required tech spend proportionally higher
• Credit releases/recoveries have benefitted recent results, but unlikely to sustain going forward
• Highest valuation of Trust Bank peers
Blurry
• Pace of balance sheet growth uncertain, given rate increases and non-operating deposits
• $250mn expense initiative on track but still not clear how much of the saves will fall to the bottom line
• Recent results benefited from heightened FX volatility, which may remain elevated, given geopolitical uncertainty
• FX treasury trade helps FX fees at the expense of NII, but net profit from trade declining

Northern Trust (NTRS)
Securities Other
Lending Fees Corporate
FX & 2% 5% and
Non-U.S. Other NII Institutional
28% Services
34% Trading Wealth 59%
7% Mgmt
41%
Asset
Servicing
25%
U.S.
66% Asset &
Wealth
Mgmt
33%

Mix 57% Mix
60% 80% 71%
70%
50%
60%
40% 50%
40%
30%
18% 30%
20% 14% 20% 14% 10%
9% 10% 4% 0% 0%
10% 1% 1%
0% 0%
PNC Financial (PNC)
Bull
• Expect loan growth to accelerate in 2019 (up 3-4%) after a relatively weak showing in 2018 (+2%)
• Continues to make progress on its $1bn in revenue initiative
• Expenses well controlled with CIP, despite pressure from ongoing revenue initiatives
• PAA decline drag on NIM has diminished over time and expected to be immaterial going forward
• Could see operating leverage almost double in 2019, though off a low base in 2018
• Ability to capitalize on possible disruption from BBT/STI merger
Bear
• Not many levers remain to reduce nominal expenses and move efficiency lower from here
• Credit costs likely to move higher after being held down (at lower end or below guidance) for some time
• Valuation appears to be above peers (among the highest on the forward P/E basis)
Blurry
• Its $300mn 2019 CIP efficiency goal unlikely to benefit bottom line (all saves reinvested)
• Expect NIM to bounce around current levels through 2019
• Digital deposit strategy helps gain market share but adds execution risk and potential for deposit pricing run up

PNC Financial (PNC)
Other( incl.
PNC BlackRock) Retail
34% 13% Banking
Asset Mgmt 45%
Group
20% 7%
12% 12%
7% 6% 5% 4%
PA OH NJ MI IL MD IN Other Corporate &

Institutional
1 4 4 4 8 3 2 - Banking
35%

Mix 38% Mix
40% 80% 72%
35% 70%
30% 60%
24% 50%
25%
40%
20%
13% 30%
15% 10% 10% 20% 12% 9%
10% 10% 4% 1% 2%
3% 3%
5% 0%
Regions Financial (RF)
Bull
• Robust capital redeployment including $300mn of additional capital from sale of Insurance business
• Completing $400mn efficiency program this year, followed by its “Simplify & Grow”
• Next phase of ROTCE improvement driven by lowering its efficiency ratio to the mid-50% range.
• Potential participant in a more active M&A/MOE market
• Ability to capitalize on possible disruption from BBT/STI merger
Bear
• Loan growth has lagged peers, partly due to portfolio de-risking
• Details on next efficiency initiative, Simplify & Grow, have yet to be unveiled
• Deposit betas are beginning to rise
• Excess capital position may be used for M&A
• Above average asset sensitivity could weigh in a falling rate environment
Blurry
• Acquisition strategy post CRA upgrade and excess capital
• Any strategic changes with recent CEO change?
• Potential for further branch consolidation in sub-scale markets?
• Avenues for accelerating fee income growth?

Regions Financial (RF)
Wealth Other
Mgmt 4%
RF 8%
23% Consumer
19% 19% Bank
56%
14%
8% 7% 6%
4% Corporate
Bank
32%
AL FL TN LA MS GA AR Other
1 7 2 5 2 6 6 -

Mix Mix
35% 60% 51%
29%
30% 26% 50%
37%
25% 21% 40%
20% 30%
15% 12% 20%
10% 8% 6%
10% 4% 2%
3% 2% 0%
5% 0%
State Street (STT)
Bull
• Leveraged to increased market activity in an improving economic environment
• Both its asset servicing and asset management segments are scale businesses in consolidating industries
• Project Beacon efficiency program on track to deliver $550mn in annual savings
• Improved fee growth combined with ongoing costs control should generate positive total revenue and fee income operating
leverage over time
• Recent acquisition of Charles River Deployment (CRD) creates revenue and expense opportunities
Bear
• Will take several years to determine if Charles River Deployment acquisition is panning out
• Pricing pressure on core asset servicing and asset management businesses
• Limits on leverage capital ratios have restrained growth in capital redeployment
• Large securities portfolio susceptible to unrealized losses in a rising rate environment
Blurry
• How will the new management team counter the persistent pricing pressure and will there be any strategic changes under the
new CEO (starts later this year)?
• Net bottom line benefits from prior efficiency initiatives were had to come by, how will it be different this time?
• How soon can benefits from regulatory reform be realized?
• How do recent technology investments differentiate from peers?
• Financial impact of CRD?
State Street (STT)
AUC/A by Geography Revenue Mix LOB Revenue Mix
Securities Other Investment
Lending Fees Mgmt
NII 16%
5% 2%
FX & 22%
EMEA Other
21%
Trading
10%
Americas
73%
Asset &
Wealth
Mgmt
Asset 15%
Asia Pacific Investment
6% Servicing Servicing
46% 84%

Mix Mix
90% 80% 45% 39%
80% 40%
70% 35%
30% 24% 26%
60%
50% 25%
20%
40% 15% 11%
30% 17% 10%
20% 5% 1% 0%
10% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
SunTrust (STI)
Bull
• Loan growth should continue to outpace deposit growth in 2019 (helped by strength in CRE, digital lending)
• Recently added a new medium-term (3-4 years) efficiency target of 56% to 58% (59.6% in 2018)
• Still more room for longer term revenue growth in its Investment Banking unit following significant build out
• IB and lending pipelines appear to be pretty solid going into 1Q19
• Merger of equals with BBT should help improve its competitive position as it aims to use lever technology to take on larger rivals
Bear
• Expect flattish NIM in 1Q19 and stable to down going forward, depending on loan growth and deposit pricing
• Credit costs have bottomed and likely to trend higher, though over longer period of time
• Deposit costs to continue to trend upwards impacted by rate environment, loan growth.
• Share repurchases suspended pending the closing of MOE with BBT (late 3Q19/early 4Q19)
• MOE with BBT adds significant execution risk, as the combined company will have a new name/brand and new HQ
Blurry
• Efficiency improvement slowing, as cost management gets tougher (more reliant on revenue growth)
• With some regional peers looking to M&A to supplement growth, STI may also need to participate there
• Its rate swap book declined of late, but still relatively large
• MOE with BBT calls for management team mash up (top mgmt. level includes 7 execs. from each firm) and planned CEO
succession with STI’s Rogers taking over for BBT’s Kelly in September of 2021
SunTrust (STI)
Consumer
STI Business
33% 61%
30% Wholesale
Banking
39%
12%
8%
6% 5% 3% 2%
GA FL VA TN MD NC DC Other
1 3 4 3 7 6 4 -

Mix Mix
30% 27% 90% 82%
80%
25% 21% 20% 70%
19% 60%
20%
50%
15% 40%
9% 30%
10% 20% 7%
2% 6% 3%
5% 2% 2% 10% 0%
0%
U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Bull
• Best in class ROA and ROTCE ratios
• Considered the ‘goldilocks bank’, given its size is neither too large nor too small
• Well defined presence across all four main business units (Wealth, Payments, Consumer and Commercial)
• Payments revenue growth rate should increase in 2019 as it overlapped the exit of 2 joint ventures
• Expense growth beginning to normalize as compliance cost growth rate slows (exited Consent Order in 4Q18)
Bear
• Achieving positive operating leverage has been difficult as it continues to reinvest in its businesses placing its efficiency ratio
closer to peer levels instead of historic advantage
• Trades at too large of a premium vs. peer group on P/TBV
• For its size, has a relatively small Investment Banking presence
• Its current and expected CCAR payout ratio are also below peers
Blurry
• ROA/ROTCE are already within targeted long-term ranges…when does it plan to update?
• Will revenue growth reach its target of 6-8% by 2019 (~3% y-o-y in 2018)?
• When does it expect its investments in tech and digital to produce underlying results?
• Once its current Consent Order is completed, will it consider doing a full bank M&A?

U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Wealth Other Consumer
Mgmt and 6% and
USB Investment
22% 22% Business
Services Banking
19% 13% 37%
12% 11%
5% 5% 5%
Payment
Services Corporate
MN OH CA WI MO WA OR Other 27% and
Commercial
2 1 9 1 1 4 1 - Banking
17%

Mix Mix
30% 27% 45% 42%
24% 40%
25% 35%
19% 30% 24%
20%
25% 20%
15% 20%
9% 10% 15%
10% 8% 7%
10% 4% 4%
4% 5%
5%
0%
Wells Fargo (WFC)
Bull
• Management is executing on $4bn expense saves, of which half should benefit bottom line directly
• See some potential for upside to CCAR 2019 deployment level vs. CCAR 2018
• Should continue to grow NII in 2019 despite asset cap, deposit pricing, etc.
• Deposit betas remain muted, helped by solid trends in its retail franchise
• Reiterated expense targets of $52-$53bn in 2019 and $50-$51bn in 2020
• Continues to screen cheap relative to historical valuation measures
Bear
• Expects to operate under the asset cap restriction through the entire 2019
• Steady stream of negative headlines and outstanding legal/regulatory matters
• Retail brokerage revenues to see some headwind in 1Q19 as assets are priced on a quarter lagged basis
• Efficiency ratio expected to remain above 55-59% targeted range near-term
• Revenue run rate and market share declining as it de-emphasizes certain activities and sells businesses
Blurry
• Franchise earnings power erosion from sales practices and other issues tough to quantify
• When will these negative headlines (and political rhetoric) begin to abate?
• Management bench refreshed post sales practice issues, but is the major shake up finally over?
• Sales practices review at/near end, but management won't rule out uncovering new issues

Wells Fargo (WFC)
Mortgage
Wealth and Banking
WFC 37% Investment 3% Community
Mgmt Banking
18% (ex. Mtge
26% Banking)
48%
8% 8% 7% 6% 4% 4%
CA MN FL TX NC NJ VA Other Wholesale
Banking
2 1 2 3 2 3 1 - 31%
State Deposit mix is adjusted for credit-card related deposits in SD.

Mix Mix
35% 30% 90% 77%
30% 26% 80%
70%
25% 20% 60%
20% 50%
40%
15% 10% 30%
10% 5% 7% 20% 5% 4% 6% 5%
10% 3%
5% 2%
0%
Data Bank

Revenue mix
Revenue Mix by Type, 4Q18 Revenue Mix by LOB, 4Q18
COF
CFG Specialty
HBAN Finance Consumer/
Mortgage 14%
CMA
Banking Retail/ Small
C 1% Business
26%
MTB
ALLY
RF Wealth/Asset
STI Management
FITB
16%
WFC
KEY
Corporate/
BBT
Commercial
PNC
Banking
Investment
USB 17%
Banking/
BAC
Processing
JPM 26%
BK
NTRS
STT
MS
GS
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Loan Revenue Core Deposit Revenue Other NII Fees: Service Charges
Fees: Fiduciary Activities Fees: Trading Revenue Fees: Other
Ranked by net interest income as a percent of revenues, highest to lowest.
Geographic footprint
C O M P A N Y T I C K E R
BAC BBT BK COF C CFG CMA FITB HBAN JPM KEY MTB NTRS PNC RF USB WFC
Headquarters State NC NC NY VA NY RI TX OH OH NY OH NY IL PA AL MN CA
# of Branches 4,341 3,103 59 539 689 1,113 436 1,121 954 5,036 1,159 818 57 2,372 1,454 3,018 5,751
Company 4Q18 Total Deposits ($bn) $1,381 $324 $239 $250 $1,013 $120 $56 $109 $85 $1,471 $107 $90 $104 $268 $94 $345 $1,286
4Q18 Domestic Deposits ($bn) $1,304 $324 $140 $250 $467 $120 $55 $109 $85 $1,201 $107 $89 $30 $264 $95 $322 $1,227
Deposit Mix Alabama AL 1% 1% 23% 1%

Alaska AK 1% -
by State Arizona AZ 2% 1% 2% - 2% 1% 2%
Arkansas AR - - 4% - -
California CA 23% - 25% 31% 12% - 4% 12% 20%
Colorado CO - 1% 4% 1% 5% 2%
Connecticut CT 2% - - 3% 2% - 4% - 1% 1%
Delaware DE - - - - 1% - 8% 2% -
DC DC 1% 1% 1% 2% - 1% - 2% 1%
Florida FL 8% 21% 8% 1% 9% - 3% 3% - 15% 4% 19% - 6%
Georgia GA 3% 20% 1% - - - 1% 7% - 3%
Hawaii HI
Idaho ID - - 2% 1% -
Illinois IL 3% 7% 21% 3% 7% 70% 6% 2% 4% 1%
Indiana IN - - 7% 4% 1% 3% 4% 3% - -
Iowa IA - - 2% 1%
Kansas KS - 1% -
Kentucky KY 2% 5% 1% 1% 3% 1% 1%
Louisiana LA 16% 1% 8%
Maine ME - 2%
Maryland MD 3% 6% 10% 1% 19% 5% 1%
Massachusetts MA 6% 32% - 1% - - -
Michigan MI 1% 5% 52% 13% 19% 3% 1% - 1% 7% -
Minnesota MN - - - 23% 6%
Mississippi MS - 7% -
Note: Company deposits of less than 0.5% in a state are shown as "-". Deposits in HQ state bolded. C is adjusted for SD deposits. COF is adjusted for DE deposits. From our coverage: ALLY, GS, MS, and STT are excluded.
Source: Barclays Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence. Jason M. Goldberg, CFA I Managing Director
Geographic footprint
C O M P A N Y T I C K E R
BAC BBT BK COF C CFG CMA FITB HBAN JPM KEY MTB NTRS PNC RF USB WFC
Headquarters State NC NC NY VA NY RI TX OH OH NY OH NY IL PA AL MN CA
Company # of Branches
4Q18 Total Deposits ($bn)
4,341
$1,381
3,103
$324
59
$239
539
$250
689
$1,013
1,113
$120
436
$56
1,121
$109
954
$85
5,036
$1,471
1,159
$107
818
$90
57
$104
2,372
$268
1,454
$94
3,018
$345
5,751
$1,286
Deposit Mix 4Q18 Domestic Deposits ($bn)
Missouri MO
$1,304
1%
$324 $140 $250 $467 $120 $55 $109 $85 $1,201 $107 $89 $30
-
$264
1%
$95
3%
$322
6%
$1,227
-
by State Montana MT 1% -
Nebraska NE 1% -
(continued) Nevada NV 1% 1% - - - 2% 2%
New Hampshire NH - 7%
New Jersey NJ 4% 1% 5% 2% 1% 2% 8% 11% 3%
New Mexico NM - - 1%
New York NY 7% 79% 39% 49% 10% 44% 30% 51% 1% - 2%
North Carolina NC 13% 18% 3% 3% 1% 4%
North Dakota ND 1% -
Ohio OH - 9% 39% 66% 2% 22% - 12% 19% -
Oklahoma OK - -
Oregon OR 1% 1% 4% 5% 1%
Pennsylvania PA 1% 4% 21% 25% 4% - 7% 11% 35% 3%
Rhode Island RI 1% 9%
South Carolina SC 1% 3% - - 1% 1%
South Dakota SD - - 25%
Tennessee TN 1% 5% 2% 19% 1% -
Texas TX 9% 2% 8% 2% 16% 14% - 4% 4% - 6%
Utah UT - 1% 4% 1% 1%
Vermont VT 1% 1% -
Virginia VA 2% 13% 19% 1% - - 1% 2% 3%
Washington WA 3% 1% 11% 1% 5% 1%
West Virginia WV 2% - 2% - - -
Wisconsin WI 1% - 1% 8% -
Wyoming WY - -
Note: Company deposits of less than 0.5% in a state are shown as "-". Deposits in HQ state bolded. C is adjusted for SD deposits. COF is adjusted for DE deposits. From our coverage: ALLY, GS, MS, and STT are excluded.
Source: Barclays Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence. Jason M. Goldberg, CFA I Managing Director
Geographic revenue mix, 2018
GS BK EMEA
BAC
BAC GS BK 26%
Americas (UK is 16% of
G-SIFI 61% EMEA
25%
total revenue)
EMEA
Geographic 6%
U.S. Asia
Revenue Mix, 89% 4%
Latin America
APAC
7%
2018 and the

Caribbean
1% Asia
U.S.
63% Other
4%
(incl Australia
& NZ)
15%
C EMEA MS
C MS NTRS
NTRS
16%
Asia
21% Non-U.S.
Americas
32%
73%
EMEA
15%
Latin America
14% Asia
North America U.S.
12%
46% 68%
Corporate/
Other
4%
JPM WFC STT

JPM WFC STT
Non-U.S.
EMEA Non-U.S. 43%
15% 4%
Asia/Pacific
7%
Latin America
and the U.S.
U.S. U.S.
Caribbean 57%
76% 96%
2%

Revenue mix summary
Revenue by Geography, 2018 Revenue by Business, 2018
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30% 20%
20% 10%
10% 0%
0% GS MS JPM C BAC WFC
WFC BAC JPM NTRS MS BK GS STT C Investment Banking Asset/Wealth Mgmt Com'l Banking/Transaction Serv
U.S. EMEA Asia-Pacific Latin America Other U.S. Consumer Banking Int'l Consumer Banking
Investment Banking Revenue Mix, 2018 Investment Banking Revenue Mix, 4Q18
100% 100% 5% 7% 7% 7% 8%
90% 90%
16% 15% 12% 9%
18%
80% 80%
70% 12% 15% 19%
70% 10% 27%
60% 60% 17%
50% 50%
27% 26%
40% 40%
30% 30%
36%
20% 49%
20%
10% 10% 50% 37% 37% 18% 14%
0% 0%
C JPM BAC GS MS C BAC JPM GS MS
FICC Equities Advisory Debt U/W Equity U/W FICC Equities Advisory Debt U/W Equity U/W

Foreign exposure
Cross-Border Exposure, 3Q18
$bn
$mn BAC BK C GS JPM MS NTRS STT WFC $0 $200 $400
Australia - - $29,592 $12,022 - - $3,669 $4,019 -
Japan
Belgium - $3,994 - - - - - $3,501 -
UK
Brazil - - $27,925 - - - - - -
Cayman Isl.
Canada - $4,470 $21,571 $12,262 - $13,880 $4,166 $3,366 $15,578
Germany
Cayman Islands $47,896 - $83,730 $51,174 $101,774 $29,825 - $3,569 $59,074
France
China - $3,266 $32,188 $14,510 - - - - -
Canada
European Central Bank - - - - - $15,691 - - -
France $34,051 $3,101 $51,753 $23,226 $42,462 $26,377 - $2,536 - Mexico
Germany $38,407 $20,423 $65,215 $32,385 $85,909 $10,299 $1,260 $38,062 - China
Hong Kong - - $31,238 - - - - - - Australia
India - - $32,875 - - - - - - South Korea

Ireland - - - $12,559 - $14,469 - $3,152 - Netherlands
Italy - - $18,185 $10,388 - - - - - Singapore
Japan $54,014 $18,561 $79,866 $114,789 $98,543 $76,566 $5,328 $16,520 - Ireland
Luxembourg - - - $9,772 - - $8,274 $2,663 - India
Mexico - - $70,536 - - - - - -
Hong Kong
Netherlands - $2,094 $25,580 $7,559 - $9,363 - - -
Italy
Singapore - - $43,605 - - - - - -
Brazil
South Korea - - $48,204 - - - - - -
Taiwan
Switzerland - - $21,110 - - - - - -
Switzerland
Taiwan - - $23,238 - - - - - -
United Kingdom $80,360 $21,179 $92,316 $82,357 $81,503 $49,052 $11,094 $14,449 $24,289 Luxembourg
Other $38,309 - - - $83,488 $37,281 - - - ECB
Belgium
Sum $293,037 $77,088 $798,727 $383,003 $493,679 $282,803 $33,791 $91,837 $98,941
Other
Other includes exposure to individual countries that are between 0.75% and 1% of assets or between 15% and 20% of capital. Cross-Border Claims by Country
Source: Barclays Research and FFIEC
Foreign exposure
Cross-Border Exposure as % of Assets, 3Q18
BAC BK C GS JPM MS NTRS STT WFC
Australia - - 1.54% 1.26% - - 2.77% 1.72% -
UK Cross-Border Claims
$bn
Belgium - 1.14% - - - - - 1.50% -
$100
Brazil - - 1.45% - - - - - -
$90
Canada - 1.28% 1.12% 1.28% - 1.60% 3.15% 1.44% 0.83%
$80
Cayman Islands 2.05% - 4.35% 5.35% 3.89% 3.45% - 1.53% 3.15% $70
China - 0.93% 1.67% 1.52% - - - - - $60
European Central Bank - - - - - 1.81% - - - $50
France 1.46% 0.89% 2.69% 2.43% 1.62% 3.05% - 1.08% - $40
Germany 1.64% 5.84% 3.39% 3.38% 3.29% 1.19% 0.95% 16.27% - $30
Hong Kong - - 1.62% - - - - - - $20
India - - 1.71% - - - - - - $10
$0
Ireland - - - 1.31% - 1.67% - 1.35% -
C GS JPM BAC MS WFC BK STT NTRS COF
Italy - - 0.94% 1.09% - - - - -
UK Cross-Border Claims
Japan 2.31% 5.31% 4.15% 11.99% 3.77% 8.85% 4.02% 7.06% -
% of Assets
Luxembourg - - - 1.02% - - 6.25% 1.14% - 10%
Mexico - - 3.66% - - - - - - 9% 8.6% 8.4%
Netherlands - 0.60% 1.33% 0.79% - 1.08% - - - 8%
Singapore - - 2.27% - - - - - - 7% 6.2% 6.1%
5.7%
South Korea - - 2.50% - - - - - - 6%
4.8%
5%
Switzerland - - 1.10% - - - - - -
4% 3.4%
Taiwan - - 1.21% - - - - - - 3.1%
3%
United Kingdom 3.44% 6.06% 4.80% 8.60% 3.12% 5.67% 8.38% 6.17% 1.30%
2% 1.3%
Other 1.64% - - - 3.19% 4.31% - - - 0.9%
1%
Sum 12.53% 22.04% 41.49% 40.01% 18.88% 32.67% 25.53% 39.25% 5.28% 0%
GS NTRS STT BK MS C BAC JPM WFC COF
Other includes exposure to individual countries that are between 0.75% and 1% of assets or between 15% and 20% of capital. UK Cross-Border Claims
Source: Barclays Research and FFIEC
Loan growth and mix
Consumer excluding
Commercial & Industrial Commercial Real Estate Residential Mortgage Residential Mortgage Total Loans
Reported linked linked linked linked linked
yr-yr % Total yr-yr % Total yr-yr % Total yr-yr % Total yr-yr
Loan qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr
ALLY 3.9% 6.4% 33% - - - 3.6% 0.8% 54% 21.5% 1.2% 13% 5.7% 2.6%
Growth BAC 2.0% 1.3% 46% 3.2% 0.2% 7% -4.3% -0.7% 25% 3.7% 0.1% 22% 0.7% 0.4%
and Mix, BBT 3.7% 1.1% 42% 1.4% -0.9% 14% 0.1% 0.8% 22% 8.9% 2.0% 21% 3.4% 0.9% a
b
4Q18 C 6.1% 1.2% 52% - - - 1.5% 2.7% 34% -6.6% -1.2% 14% 2.6% 1.4%
CFG 6.1% 1.9% 38% 13.2% 1.9% 11% -3.6% -1.7% 35% 11.4% 3.1% 16% 4.0% 0.8%
CMA -0.4% 0.9% 66% 1.1% -0.5% 25% -2.2% 1.4% 5% -2.3% 0.3% 4% -0.2% 0.5%
COF 3.6% 2.9% 17% 3.6% 1.7% 12% 2.7% 1.8% 71% - - - -4.4% 1.9%
FITB 4.4% 2.7% 50% 3.0% 2.1% 12% 1.2% 0.9% 21% -0.4% -0.5% 16% 2.7% 1.7%
HBAN 7.7% 2.4% 40% -3.5% -2.9% 9% 4.9% 1.0% 36% 20.0% 3.3% 14% 7.1% 1.5%
JPM 14.0% 7.1% 37% 1.7% 0.1% 10% 0.5% 2.5% 33% 3.3% -0.7% 21% 5.8% 3.2%
KEY 7.9% 0.8% 56% 0.4% 2.4% 18% -2.4% -0.1% 20% 0.4% 0.5% 6% 3.8% 0.9%
MTB 3.8% 3.2% 26% 1.4% -0.6% 38% 5.7% 2.1% 16% -12.8% -3.2% 20% -0.6% 0.2%
PNC 4.0% 2.3% 55% -3.6% -1.7% 13% -0.9% -0.2% 24% 9.3% 2.5% 8% 2.2% 1.2%
RF 6.8% 1.9% 47% -1.5% 0.7% 15% -1.0% 0.0% 21% 2.0% 0.5% 17% 3.0% 1.1%
STI 3.3% 2.7% 46% 9.2% 2.8% 7% 3.5% 2.4% 28% 4.4% 2.3% 19% 3.9% 2.5%
a
USB 3.0% 1.5% 35% -2.1% 1.5% 14% 0.2% 1.1% 28% 8.1% 3.9% 23% 1.4% 0.9%
WFC 4.1% 2.5% 38% -5.4% -0.7% 15% -8.8% -1.3% 16% 1.2% 0.4% 30% -0.6% 0.7%
Median 4.0% 2.3% 42% 1.4% 0.2% 13% 0.2% 0.9% 25% 3.5% 0.5% 17% 2.7% 1.1%
Average 4.9% 2.5% 42% 1.5% 0.4% 15% 0.1% 0.8% 29% 4.5% 0.9% 17% 2.4% 1.3%
Note: All numbers are based on Average Loans except for ALLY, C and JPM. Linked-qtr rates are not annualized. (a) Total loans include FDIC-covered loans for BBT and USB. (b) Includes C&I and CRE loans.
Loan mix
% of Loans
Owner Non-Owner
Regulatory Loans
($bn)
C&I Occupied Occupied C&D
Resi
Mtge
Multi-
family
HEL
Credit
Card
Auto
Other
Consumer
Lease Other
Loans %
of AEA
CRE CRE
Loan Mix, ALLY $130 35% 3% 0% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0% 48% 0% 0% 0% 75%
4Q18 BAC $980 29% 2% 4% 1% 22% 1% 5% 13% 4% 1% 3% 18% 48%
BBT $150 20% 8% 10% 4% 22% 2% 6% 2% 8% 5% 1% 12% 75%
BK $56 4% 0% 3% 1% 17% 2% 0% 0% 0% 5% 2% 65% 19%
C $701 25% 0% 2% 1% 11% 1% 1% 25% 0% 3% 0% 31% 39%
CFG $118 31% 5% 6% 3% 18% 1% 11% 2% 9% 10% 2% 3% 82%
CMA $50 54% 10% 5% 7% 4% 1% 4% 1% 0% 1% 1% 13% 76%
COF $247 14% 1% 6% 1% 0% 5% 0% 44% 23% 0% 0% 7% 72%
FITB $96 40% 4% 3% 5% 17% 1% 6% 4% 9% 2% 4% 7% 73%
GS $128 20% 0% 4% 2% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 56% 14%
HBAN $76 30% 5% 5% 2% 17% 1% 11% 2% 16% 5% 3% 3% 76%
JPM $1,015 18% 2% 2% 1% 25% 7% 3% 15% 5% 0% 0% 22% 42%
KEY $92 39% 3% 8% 2% 10% 5% 8% 2% 4% 3% 5% 11% 73%
MTB $88 21% 7% 18% 10% 19% 4% 5% 1% 4% 5% 1% 4% 81%
MS $151 12% 0% 8% 0% 19% 1% 0% 0% 0% 12% 0% 47% 19%
NTRS $32 14% 3% 6% 1% 18% 2% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 53% 28%
PNC $227 38% 3% 7% 3% 13% 2% 7% 3% 6% 3% 3% 11% 68%
RF $83 29% 7% 4% 3% 21% 1% 7% 2% 4% 4% 1% 16% 76%
STI $153 27% 6% 4% 2% 21% 1% 6% 2% 8% 11% 3% 11% 80%
STT $26 17% 0% 3% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 79% 13%
USB $289 27% 3% 5% 4% 24% 1% 5% 9% 6% 3% 5% 7% 68%
WFC $965 20% 3% 7% 2% 30% 1% 5% 5% 5% 2% 2% 18% 56%
Median 26% 3% 5% 2% 17% 1% 5% 2% 4% 3% 1% 12% 70%
Source: Barclays Research, Company reports, and S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Loan mix
Regulatory Loan Mix, 4Q18
C&I Loans CRE Loans Residential RE Consumer Leases & Other
% of Loans % of Loans % of Loans % of Loans % of Loans
0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
CMA MTB WFC COF STT

FITB BBT USB ALLY BK
KEY CMA CFG C GS
PNC KEY RF HBAN NTRS
ALLY RF JPM CFG MS
CFG PNC HBAN STI C
HBAN CFG BBT JPM JPM
RF HBAN BAC USB BAC
BAC WFC STI BAC WFC
USB STI MTB BBT RF
STI USB FITB FITB KEY
C COF NTRS PNC PNC
MTB NTRS PNC MS CMA
BBT JPM MS WFC BBT
GS FITB KEY MTB STI
WFC MS BK RF USB
JPM C&I BAC Multi-family ALLY Mortgage KEY Credit Card FITB Lease
STT GS C GS COF
C&D HEL Auto Other
NTRS BK GS BK HBAN
Other Consumer
COF ALLY Non-Owner CMA CMA MTB
Occupied CRE
MS C Owner Occupied COF NTRS CFG
BK STT CRE STT STT ALLY
C&I Exposure mix
C&I Exposure Mix, 2018
Automotive Energy & Health Industrials & Tech, Media Real Wholesale Agri- Public
Ticker Type $bn Consumer Financials Materials Retail Services Other
& Transp Utilities care Manuf & Telecom estate Trade culture Sector
ALLY Corporate finance operations $4.6 12.3 5.0 0.0 0.0 24.5 10.7 0.0 7.7 2.2 0.0 7.5 25.6 0.0 0.0 4.5
BAC Commercial Utilized $621.0 7.7 10.3 4.1 26.5 7.0 0.0 10.5 10.7 10.5 4.1 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 1.0
BBT C&I (3Q18) $62.5 3.0 1.0 4.0 8.0 8.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 28.0 7.0 4.0 9.0 1.0 7.0 10.0
CFG Core commerical (2Q18) $54.1 5.0 9.0 3.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 4.0 22.0 5.0 6.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 7.0
CMA Buisness Bank $41.6 17.5 0.0 4.5 4.1 0.0 0.0 10.9 0.0 12.7 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 47.6
COF Commercial Loans $70.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 16.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.0 3.0 0.0 13.0 0.0 0.0 9.0
C Corporate credit $354.5 21.0 16.0 8.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 13.0 10.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
FITB Commerical loans outstanding $59.6 4.7 8.8 1.4 11.4 7.3 17.4 4.9 4.1 18.2 6.3 5.2 9.6 0.5 0.0 0.1
GS Loans and Lending Commitments $200.8 0.0 0.0 15.0 13.0 16.0 16.0 18.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0
HBAN Total commercial loans $37.4 3.5 6.2 1.2 9.0 6.8 13.7 1.2 3.4 21.1 14.3 7.6 10.3 0.5 0.7 0.7
JPM Wholesale credit exposure $881.2 3.7 0.0 8.0 24.3 5.5 6.6 8.2 3.6 16.3 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 7.7
KEY Total commercial loans $66.3 7.7 13.6 9.9 9.0 7.7 2.6 1.6 3.4 28.4 0.0 2.7 4.7 2.0 5.7 1.0
MS ISG Loans and Commitments $149.3 0.0 10.9 13.2 24.4 6.8 9.2 14.2 4.0 16.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
MTB Commerical loans $23.0 27.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 7.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 9.0 15.0 1.0 1.0 2.0
NTRS Total commerical $15.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.0 10.6 0.0 0.1 21.3 0.9 2.6 28.2 0.0 0.4 23.6
PNC Total commercial lending $152.3 3.8 0.0 0.0 6.2 5.8 18.7 0.0 0.0 26.6 0.0 13.7 9.8 0.0 0.0 15.4
RF Total commercial loans $45.2 4.1 4.6 8.9 9.0 8.5 13.0 3.2 0.0 14.8 5.2 7.4 13.2 1.2 6.3 0.6
STI Total commercial loans $80.9 12.8 12.6 5.7 10.0 10.1 0.0 6.8 6.9 16.8 4.5 0.0 5.9 0.0 4.2 3.7
USB Commercial Loans $102.4 3.5 4.0 2.7 10.0 5.6 14.7 3.5 1.6 12.0 8.0 8.1 8.0 1.2 4.7 12.4
WFC C&I loans $369.9 2.4 4.6 3.3 31.6 4.5 4.0 4.4 0.0 4.0 7.5 0.0 2.2 0.0 2.1 29.3

Securities mix
Securities Mix
Securities
Pass- Non- ABS &
Regulatory Portfolio U.S. U.S. Agency Other Agency
Munis Through Agency Structured Other HTM AFS
($bn) Treasuries & GSA Debt RMBS CMBS
Securities RMBS CMBS Products
ALLY $28.5 7% 0% 3% 57% 20% 0% 3% 3% 8% 8% 89%
Mix, BAC $434.5 12% 0% 3% 73% 3% 3% 0% 2% 3% 47% 53%
4Q18 BBT $46.0 10% 5% 2% 40% 41% 0% 2% 0% 1% 45% 54%
BK $120.7 21% 3% 2% 27% 16% 4% 6% 4% 17% 28% 71%
COF $83.3 7% 0% 0% 51% 29% 3% 8% 0% 2% 44% 55%
C $347.6 31% 3% 4% 19% 3% 1% 1% 6% 34% 18% 82%
CFG $24.2 0% 0% 0% 70% 17% 0% 12% 0% 1% 17% 82%
CMA $12.1 23% 0% 0% 11% 67% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
FITB $32.4 0% 0% 0% 22% 29% 33% 10% 6% 0% 0% 100%
GS $13.3 94% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 90%
HBAN $22.4 0% 2% 15% 14% 41% 0% 26% 1% 0% 38% 62%
JPM $262.5 21% 0% 16% 32% 3% 4% 3% 10% 10% 12% 88%
KEY $30.9 0% 0% 0% 8% 68% 3% 20% 0% 0% 37% 63%
MTB $12.1 15% 0% 0% 82% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 27% 72%
MS $91.8 58% 1% 0% 26% 9% 1% 1% 2% 2% 34% 66%
NTRS $51.2 10% 6% 1% 8% 15% 6% 10% 7% 36% 28% 72%
PNC $83.4 22% 0% 4% 50% 6% 1% 6% 6% 4% 23% 76%
RF $24.6 1% 0% 0% 60% 11% 0% 21% 0% 7% 6% 92%
STI $31.5 13% 1% 2% 72% 0% 1% 10% 0% 0% 0% 100%
STT $87.8 18% 0% 2% 32% 11% 1% 3% 8% 25% 48% 51%
USB $112.2 21% 1% 6% 49% 23% 0% 0% 0% 0% 41% 59%
WFC $419.2 13% 1% 12% 57% 2% 0% 2% 10% 4% 35% 64%
Median 13% 0% 2% 36% 13% 1% 3% 1% 2% 28% 72%
Securities mix
Securities BBT 3.4 4.0 3.8 4.0 3.5 3.1 3.3 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.4 4.8 effective duration
CFG 3.1 3.7 3.3 3.5 2.9 2.4 2.7 4.3 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.9 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.4 wtd average duration
Portfolio FITB 5.7 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.0 5.7 5.6 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.5 wtd average life
FITB 4.3 4.9 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.2 4.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.7 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.0 AFS duration
Select KEY 3.4 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 AFS wtd avg maturity
Metrics (yrs) KEY 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.6 5.1 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 HTM wtd avg maturity
PNC 4.1 4.6 4.4 4.8 4.3 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.8 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.3 wtd average maturity
PNC 2.1 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.4 portfolio duration
STI 3.6 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.1 4.1 3.8 4.6 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.6 AFS effective duration
USB 4.1 4.7 4.4 4.7 4.3 3.9 4.2 5.1 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.4 AFS wtd avg maturity
USB 3.8 4.3 4.0 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.8 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.7 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.2 HTM wtd avg maturity
WFC 6.0 6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.7 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.3 6.6 6.0 6.2 6.2 AFS wtd avg maturity
WFC - 6.5 6.0 6.5 5.8 5.4 5.5 6.5 6.4 6.8 6.5 5.9 6.4 6.3 6.2 5.6 HTM wtd avg maturity
MBS % AEA Investment Portfolio Mix

MBS % AEA 100%
25% 90%
80%
20% 70%
60%
15%
50%
10% 40%
30%
5% 20%
10%
0%
0%
WFC
USB
MTB
PNC
FITB
STT
CFG
CMA
HBAN
ALLY
RF
KEY
NTRS
JPM
STI
BBT
BK
MS
BAC
COF
GS
Pass-thru RMBS Other RMBS Agency CMBS Non-Agency CMBS HTM AFS Trading Other
Deposit growth and mix
Other Interest-Bearing
CD Deposits DDA Deposits Total Deposits
Deposits
Reported yr-yr linked qtr % Total yr-yr linked qtr % Total yr-yr linked qtr % Total yr-yr linked qtr
ALLY 13% 4% 34% 14% 4% 66% 30% -5% 0.1% 13.5% 3.8%
Deposit BAC 12% 6% 12% 8% 3% 56% -5% 0% 31% 4.0% 2.2%
Growth & Mix, BBT -2% 11% 9% 1% 0% 57% -1% -1% 34% -0.1% 0.4%
a
BK - - - 9% 9% 73% -15% -3% 27% 1.7% 5.4%
4Q18 C - - - 8% 3% 81% a
-12% -2% 19% 3.3% 2.0%
CMA -9% -1% 4% 6% 1% 45% -10% -2% 51% -3.3% -0.6%
CFG 15% 1% 16% 1% 1% 59% 3% 0% 25% 3.5% 0.6%
a
COF - - - 4% 1% 90% -6% -2% 10% 2.5% 0.4%
FITB 12% 3% 7% 13% 5% 64% -11% -2% 29% 4.6% 2.7%
HBAN 67% 9% 12% 5% 1% 64% -6% 1% 25% 6.7% 1.8%
a
JPM - - - 5% 2% 74% -4% -2% 26% 2.1% 0.9%
KEY 17% 2% 12% 7% 4% 59% -6% -1% 28% 4.0% 2.2%
MTB -6% 7% 7% -3% 1% 57% -1% 4% 36% -2.5% 2.1%
NTRS 0% 1% 64% -10% -3% 15% -10% -1% 21% -4.2% -0.4%
PNC 7% 6% 7% 5% 2% 65% -6% -1% 28% 1.9% 1.5%
RF 1% 6% 8% -5% -2% 55% -4% -1% 38% -4.0% -0.8%
STI 28% 3% 10% -1% 2% 64% -4% -1% 26% 0.6% 1.3%
a
STT - - - 1% -2% 78% -10% 2% 22% -1.7% -0.8%
USB 14% 10% 13% -2% 0% 64% -6% 0% 23% -1.4% 1.3%
WFC 29% 6% 9% -6% 0% 63% -4% -1% 28% -3.3% 0.2%
Median 12% 6% 10% 4% 1% 64% -6% -1% 27% 1.8% 1.3%

Average 13% 5% 15% 3% 2% 62% -4% -1% 26% 1.4% 1.3%
Note: Linked qtr are not annualized. a Includes all interest-bearing deposits.
Deposit mix
as % of Total Deposits
Time Jumbo Time Noninterest-
Deposits NOW/ MMDA & Foreign Borrowing/ Loans/
Demand Deposits Deposits Bearing Deposts
Regulatory ($bn) Trans Savings
=<$250K >$250K
Deposits Liabilities Deposits
% Total
Deposit Mix, ALLY $106 0% 2% 51% 41% 6% 0% 33% ALLY 123% CMA 52%
BAC $1,382 30% 9% 52% 2% 1% 6% 21% COF 99% RF 37%
4Q18 BBT $161 33% 4% 53% 7% 4% 0% 15% CFG 98% MTB 36%
BK $239 23% 11% 8% 4% 13% 42% 15% MTB 98% BBT 33%
C $1,013 5% 10% 26% 2% 3% 54% 26% STI 94% BAC 31%
CFG $120 6% 5% 73% 12% 4% 0% 12% BBT 93% FITB 30%
CMA $56 51% 1% 43% 3% 1% 1% 10% CMA 90% BK 30%
COF $250 9% 2% 73% 14% 2% 0% 18% HBAN 89% PNC 28%
FITB $109 7% 4% 83% 6% 1% 0% 13% RF 88% KEY 27%
GS $158 0% 2% 50% 26% 2% 20% 43% FITB 88% WFC 27%
HBAN $85 26% 3% 62% 8% 1% 0% 11% KEY 86% JPM 26%
JPM $1,471 25% 12% 41% 2% 2% 18% 23% PNC 85% HBAN 26%
KEY $107 2% 1% 85% 10% 3% 0% 12% USB 84% CFG 25%
MS $188 0% 7% 76% 17% 0% 0% 32% GS 81% STT 25%
MTB $90 36% 9% 48% 6% 1% 1% 12% MS 80% USB 24%
NTRS $104 14% 4% 10% 0% 0% 71% 12% WFC 75% STI 23%
PNC $268 12% 9% 72% 4% 1% 2% 17% BAC 71% NTRS 22%
RF $95 37% 4% 51% 6% 2% 0% 13% C 69% C 18%
STI $163 2% 6% 82% 7% 3% 0% 12% JPM 69% COF 9%
STT $180 11% 24% 1% 0% 26% 39% 7% NTRS 31% GS 0%
USB $345 24% 20% 42% 4% 4% 7% 13% BK 24% MS 0%
WFC $1,286 5% 4% 77% 6% 3% 5% 20% STT 14% ALLY 0%
Median 11% 5% 52% 6% 2% 1% 14% 85% 26%
Net interest margin
Earning Int-Bearing Cost of All Int-Bearing Impact of
Loans Securities Borrowings NIM
Assets Deposits Deposits Liabilities NIBF
Net Interest ALLY 5.69 2.96 5.06 2.01 2.00 3.80 2.52 2.66 0.12
Margin BAC 4.90 2.76 3.60 0.68 0.46 3.22 1.50 2.48 0.38
Drivers, BBT 4.93 2.52 4.36 0.79 0.52 2.99 1.28 3.49 0.41
BK 3.71 2.27 2.60 0.87 0.63 3.63 1.75 1.24 0.39
4Q18 C 7.13 2.84 4.26 1.32 1.04 3.83 1.90 2.75 0.39
CFG 4.66 2.60 4.24 1.12 0.83 2.98 1.40 3.22 0.38
COF 10.51 3.01 8.42 1.36 1.22 3.49 1.77 6.96 0.31
CMA 4.94 2.36 4.23 0.63 0.31 2.89 1.04 3.70 0.51
FITB 4.68 3.29 4.23 0.94 0.67 3.07 1.33 3.29 0.39
HBAN 4.86 2.62 4.34 0.84 0.64 3.63 1.23 3.41 0.30
JPM 5.46 3.16 3.70 0.72 0.53 3.42 1.46 2.54 0.30
KEY 4.68 2.39 4.09 0.90 0.64 3.41 1.28 3.16 0.35
MTB 5.04 2.37 4.51 0.61 0.39 3.02 0.94 3.92 0.35
NTRS 3.73 2.06 2.34 0.75 0.60 2.58 1.04 1.52 0.22
PNC 4.52 2.92 3.99 0.88 0.63 3.21 1.38 2.96 0.35
RF 4.69 2.59 4.24 0.55 0.34 3.16 1.04 3.55 0.35
STI 4.40 2.79 4.12 0.74 0.56 3.14 1.10 3.27 0.25
STT 3.12 2.24 2.17 0.37 0.32 5.13 0.80 1.55 0.18
USB 4.98 2.41 4.11 0.94 0.72 2.65 1.26 3.15 0.30
WFC 4.87 2.98 3.93 0.77 0.56 3.02 1.34 2.94 0.35
Median 4.87 2.61 4.18 0.82 0.61 3.19 1.31 3.16 0.35
Interest rate exposure
RATES UP RATES UP RATES DOWN
Interest Rate NII/ Change Impact Change Impact Change Impact

Ticker Revenue Model Methodology Financial Measure (bps) (%) (bps) (%) (bps) (%)
Scenario ALLY 66% Gradual 12 month Net Financing Revenue +200 +1.69 +100 +1.06 (100) (0.42)
Analysis, BAC 55% Immediate Net Interest Income - - +100 +5.27 (100) (8.16)
BBT 59% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +1.80 +100 +1.22 (200) (7.04)
4Q18
BK 22% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +11.38 +100 +5.48 (100) (4.52)
C 71% Immediate Net Interest Income - - +100 +2.91 - -
CFG 74% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +4.90 +100 +2.50 (100) (1.10)
CMA 71% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +6.00 - - (200) (12.00)
COF 87% Immediate Net Interest Income +200 (0.80) +100 (0.20) (100) (1.00)
FITB 66% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 (0.01) +100 +0.09 (150) (4.29)
GS 12% Gradual 12 month Interest Income - - +100 +3.08 - -
HBAN 71% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +5.80 +100 +2.70 (100) (2.90)
JPM 55% Immediate Net Interest Income +100 +1.53 - - (100) (3.57)
KEY 61% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +2.22 - - (200) (4.89)
MTB 69% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +0.89 +100 +0.87 (100) (2.72)
MS 12% Immediate Net Interest Income +200 +8.93 +100 +4.78 (100) (11.25)
NTRS 29% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +6.29 +100 +4.10 (100) (4.96)
PNC 58% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income - - +100 +1.70 (100) (2.20)
RF 67% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +5.04 +100 +2.70 (100) (3.06)
STI 66% Immediate Net Interest Income +200 +2.30 +100 +1.20 (50) (0.90)
STT 24% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income - - +100 +5.16 (100) (2.51)
USB 57% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +1.45 - - (200) (3.90)
WFC 61% Gradual 24 month Net Interest Income +200 +2.25 - - (100) (1.27)
MS measures change from its forecasted plan, which calls for net interest income growth
Fee Inc/ Change Pct Impact at: Change in
Ticker Revenue Model Methodology Financial Measure (bps) 4Q18 3Q18 Pct Impact
Interest Rate
NTRS 71% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +6.29 (0.12) 6.41
Scenario ALLY 34% Gradual 12 month Net Financing Revenue +200 +1.69 (0.07) 1.75
Analysis, BK 78% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +11.38 +9.95 1.43
RF 33% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +5.04 +4.51 0.53
4Q18 vs. 3Q18
STI 34% Immediate Net Interest Income +200 +2.30 +2.00 0.30
WFC 39% Gradual 24 month Net Interest Income +200 +2.25 +2.07 0.17
FITB 34% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 (0.01) (0.15) 0.14
JPM 45% Immediate Net Interest Income +100 +1.53 +1.44 0.09
USB 43% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +1.45 +1.49 (0.04)
STT 76% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +100 +5.16 +5.20 (0.04)
PNC 42% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +100 +1.70 +1.80 (0.10)
GS 88% Gradual 12 month Interest Income +100 +3.08 +3.34 (0.26)
BBT 41% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +1.80 +2.06 (0.26)
MTB 31% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +0.89 +1.17 (0.28)
HBAN 29% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +5.80 +6.10 (0.30)
CFG 26% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +4.90 +5.20 (0.30)
C 29% Immediate Net Interest Income +100 +2.91 +3.26 (0.35)
KEY 39% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +2.22 +2.95 (0.73)
COF 13% Immediate Net Interest Income +200 (0.80) +0.00 (0.80)
BAC 45% Immediate Net Interest Income +100 +5.27 +6.14 (0.87)
CMA 29% Gradual 12 month Net Interest Income +200 +6.00 +8.00 (2.00)
MS 88% Immediate Net Interest Income +200 +8.93 +14.00 (5.07)
Rate sensitivity factors
Rank EPS
Interest-
Impact of Fixed
Rate Ticker Gradual
One Year
Rank
Earning
Rank
DDA % of
Rank Loans % Rank
MBS % of
Rank
NII % of
Rank
Overall
Gap Cash % of AEA AEA Revenues Rank
Sensitivity +100bps of AEA
AEA
Parallel Shift
Factors, ALLY 11 -4.2% 20 9% 8 0% 20 47% 20 12% 4 66% 9 17
4Q18 BAC 1 29.1% 11 23% 6 21% 6 25% 6 16% 10 55% 17 3
BBT 13 24.6% 15 1% 17 27% 4 45% 17 20% 15 59% 13 20
BK 9 0.6% 19 38% 2 19% 8 19% 2 22% 17 22% 20 12
C 5 30.8% 8 29% 4 3% 17 19% 4 4% 1 71% 5 2
CFG 2 31.1% 7 1% 18 5% 15 40% 16 17% 11 74% 2 9
CMA 6 66.4% 1 7% 11 43% 1 19% 3 14% 6 71% 4 1
COF 20 28.4% 13 3% 13 7% 13 30% 8 22% 18 87% 1 14
FITB 19 39.6% 3 1% 16 6% 14 31% 9 23% 19 66% 10 15
HBAN 4 28.6% 12 1% 20 22% 5 39% 14 18% 13 71% 3 9
JPM 16 24.4% 16 35% 3 16% 9 27% 7 4% 2 55% 16 7
KEY 14 36.9% 4 2% 14 2% 18 34% 11 23% 20 61% 12 19
MTB 17 43.5% 2 7% 10 30% 3 46% 18 10% 3 69% 6 4
NTRS 8 35.2% 6 25% 5 13% 10 23% 5 16% 9 29% 18 5
PNC 10 30.1% 10 8% 9 10% 12 32% 10 16% 8 58% 14 11
RF 3 30.4% 9 2% 15 32% 2 40% 15 21% 16 67% 7 6
STI 15 36.3% 5 1% 19 1% 19 46% 19 14% 5 66% 8 15
STT 7 17.2% 18 39% 1 11% 11 12% 1 18% 12 24% 19 7
USB 18 28.3% 14 5% 12 19% 7 36% 12 19% 14 57% 15 17
WFC 12 23.2% 17 13% 7 4% 16 36% 13 15% 7 61% 11 13
Median 29.6% 7% 12% 33% 17% 64%
Note: this table excludes GS and MS.
One-Year GAP Analysis, 4Q18
4Q18
4Q18 1yr Gap Ratio
0% CMA 66.5%
CMA ASSET
FITB
KEY MTB 43.5%
10% RF
BBTHBAN STI MTB SENSITIVE
PNC
CFG FITB 39.6%
USB
WFC COFBACMS KEY 37.0%
20% NTRS
STI 36.3%
1-yr Rate Sensitive Liabilities % Assets
JPM C
30% GS NTRS 35.1%
ALLY
MS 32.6%
40% STT CFG 31.2%
C 30.8%
50% RF 30.4%
BK PNC 30.1%
60% GS 29.4%
BAC 29.1%
70% HBAN 28.6%
COF 28.4%
80% USB 28.3%
BBT 24.6%
90% JPM 24.4%
LIABILITY
SENSITIVE WFC 23.2%
100%
STT 17.2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
BK 0.6%
1-yr Rate Sensitive Assets % Total Assets
ALLY -4.2%
Global investment banking league rankings
JPM GS C MS BAC DB BCS CS HSBC UBS BNP SocGen
INVESTMENT BANK
1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4
Investment
Banking FICC
1 1 1 3 1 2 3 3 2 4 3 4
Market Share, l G10 Rates 1 1 1 3 3 2 2 4 3 4 2 3

l G10 Foreign Exchange 1 3 1 3 2 2 3 4 1 2 4 4
2018 l EM Macro 1 2 1 3 2 2 3 4 1 4 3 3
l Credit 1 2 2 3 1 1 3 2 3 4 4 4
l Securitization 1 2 1 2 1 1 3 2 3 4 4 4
l Commodities 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 4 2 3 3 3
l Municipal Finance 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 NA NA NA NA NA
EQUITIES
1 1 2 1 2 4 3 3 4 2 4 3
l Cash Equities 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 2 4 2 4 4
l Equtiy Derivatives 1 1 2 2 2 4 3 4 4 2 3 1
l Prime Services 1 1 2 1 2 3 2 3 4 2 3 3
l Futures & Options 1 1 1 2 2 4 3 3 4 3 3 1
IBD
1 1 2 1 2 3 2 2 4 3 4 4
l Mergers & Acquisitions 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 2 4 3 4 4
l Equity Capital Markets 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 2 4 3 4 4
l Debt Capital Markets 1 2 1 2 1 3 2 3 3 4 4 4
g Top 3 g 2nd Tier g 3rd Tier g 4th Tier g Not Active

Rank 1-3 Rank 4-6 Rank 7-9 Rank 10-12
Source: Coalition Analytics
Global investment banking league rankings by region
AMERICAS Revenue - 2018
JPM GS BAC MS C BCS CS DB WFC RBC UBS BNP
Regional INVESTMENT BANK
1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4
Investment FICC
1 2 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 3 4 4
Banking EQUITIES
1 1 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 4
Market Share, IBD
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 4 3 3 4 4
2018 EMEA Revenue - 2018

JPM C GS DB MS BCS HSBC BNP SocGen UBS BAC CS
INVESTMENT BANK
1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4
FICC
1 1 2 1 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 4
EQUITIES
1 3 2 4 1 3 4 3 1 1 2 4
IBD
1 1 1 2 2 2 4 3 4 4 2 3
APAC Revenue - 2018

C JPM HSBC GS MS UBS DB Nomur BAC CS BNP SocGen
a
INVESTMENT BANK
1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4
FICC
1 1 1 2 3 4 1 3 2 4 3 4
EQUITIES
3 1 4 1 1 1 4 2 3 2 4 2
IBD
1 1 4 1 1 2 3 2 3 3 4 4
g Top 3 g 2nd Tier g 3rd Tier g 4th Tier g Not Active

Source: Coalition Analytics Rank 1-3 Rank 4-6 Rank 7-9 Rank 10-12
Legal charges and RPL
qtr-qtr Cumulative
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18
% chg from 1Q11
Disclosed
BAC $388 $270 $250 $246 $274 $192 $140 $147 $116 $86 $90 $177 97% $35,916
Legal C $166 $325 $306 $411 na na na na na na na na - $20,225
Charges GS $77 $126 $46 $147 $139 $22 $18 $9 $44 $148 $136 $516 279% $8,233
($mn) JPM -$46 -$430 -$71 $230 $218 -$584 -$107 -$207 $70 $0 $20 -$18 -190% $24,583
Total $585 $291 $531 $1,034 $631 -$370 $51 -$51 $230 $234 $246 $675 97% $87,577
qtr-qtr -80% -50% 82% 95% -39% -159% -114% -200% -551% 2% 5% 174%
MS full year - - - $263 - - - $342 - - - $206 $7,343
qtr-qtr as % of
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18
% chg CET1
BAC $2,400 $1,100 $1,100 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,300 $1,200 $1,200 $1,200 $1,900 58% 1.1%
BK $710 $750 $900 $930 $920 $920 $940 $840 $860 $940 $900 $900 0% 5.1%
Reasonable COF $200 $200 $200 $200 $200 $200 $250 $550 $550 $500 $750 $1,100 47% 3.3%
Possible Losses C $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,500 $1,500 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 0% 0.7%
CMA $31 $31 $32 $31 $30 $28 $28 $29 $28 $33 $33 $33 0% 0.4%
above Legal FITB $38 $43 $41 $43 $18 $26 $31 $31 $22 $5 $9 $14 56% 0.1%
GS $1,900 $2,000 $1,700 $1,800 $1,800 $1,500 $1,600 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,800 $1,900 6% 2.6%
Reserves ($mn) HBAN $60 $50 $50 $65 $70 $70 $65 $55 $30 $30 $30 $30 0% 0.4%
JPM $3,500 $3,300 $3,100 $3,000 $2,300 $1,900 $1,800 $1,700 $1,700 $1,700 $1,600 $1,500 -6% 0.8%
MTB $40 $40 $40 $40 $40 $50 $50 $50 $50 $50 $50 $50 0% 0.5%
NTRS $140 $90 $35 $35 $35 $35 $30 $30 $20 $20 $20 $20 0% 0.2%
PNC $550 $550 $525 $475 $425 $425 $250 $100 $100 $100 $125 $125 0% 0.4%
RF $40 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM $20 $20 $20 0% 0.2%
STI $180 $180 $190 $190 $190 $150 $160 $160 $160 $160 $160 $150 -6% 0.9%
STT - - - - - $15 $15 $15 $30 $45 $45 $300 567% 2.6%
USB NM NM NM NM $200 $300 $300 NM NM NM NM NM - -
WFC $1,100 $1,000 $1,700 $1,800 $2,000 $3,300 $3,300 $2,700 $2,600 $2,200 $2,200 $2,700 23% 1.8%
SUM $13,889 $12,334 $12,613 $13,109 $11,728 $11,919 $11,819 $10,060 $9,850 $9,503 $9,942 $11,742 0% 0.8%
qtr-qtr
-6% -11% 2% 4% -11% 2% -1% -15% -2% -4% 5% 18%
% chg
Asset quality
Loan Mix EPS Impact
4Q18 4Q18 If Prov/Loan If Prov/Loan If Prov/Loan
Resi Credit Other Normalized
C&I CRE Lease Other NCO Prov/ Matches Matches Exceeds Normal
What If Net R/E Card Cnsmr NCO Ratio
Ratio Loans 4Q18 NCO Normal NCO NCO by 20%
Charge-offs Go HISTORICAL
MEDIAN 0.66% 0.12% 0.15% 4.08% 0.95% 0.36% 0.25%
to Historical NCO RATIO
Median BAC 28% 7% 27% 12% 5% 3% 18% 0.84% 0.39% 0.39% 0% -12% -16%
BBT 19% 25% 27% 2% 12% 1% 12% 0.43% 0.38% 0.40% 1% -1% -5%
BK 6% 5% 16% 0% 5% 2% 65% 0.29% -0.01% 0.00% 0% -4% -4%
C 27% 3% 13% 23% 3% 0% 31% 1.25% 1.06% 1.10% 1% -5% -14%
CFG 29% 14% 29% 2% 20% 3% 4% 0.53% 0.29% 0.29% 0% -12% -17%
CMA 54% 24% 8% 1% 1% 1% 12% 0.46% 0.09% 0.13% 1% -10% -13%
COF 13% 13% 0% 43% 23% 0% 8% 2.09% 2.67% 2.71% 2% 25% 8%
FITB 40% 12% 24% 3% 11% 4% 6% 0.58% 0.35% 0.40% 2% -7% -12%
HBAN 29% 15% 27% 2% 21% 3% 3% 0.53% 0.27% 0.33% 3% -9% -14%
JPM 18% 12% 29% 15% 5% 0% 21% 0.87% 0.51% 0.64% 4% -7% -11%
KEY 37% 19% 19% 2% 6% 5% 12% 0.48% 0.27% 0.26% 0% -8% -12%
MTB 19% 38% 27% 1% 9% 1% 4% 0.34% 0.17% 0.17% 0% -5% -8%
NTRS 15% 13% 22% 0% 1% 1% 49% 0.28% -0.02% -0.05% 0% -5% -6%
PNC 35% 16% 21% 2% 10% 4% 13% 0.52% 0.16% 0.26% 4% -9% -13%
RF 28% 16% 30% 2% 7% 1% 16% 0.44% 0.46% 0.46% 0% 1% -3%
STI 29% 13% 27% 2% 18% 3% 8% 0.53% 0.26% 0.23% -1% -14% -19%
USB 26% 13% 29% 8% 11% 5% 8% 0.71% 0.50% 0.52% 1% -6% -11%
WFC 20% 14% 35% 5% 7% 2% 17% 0.52% 0.30% 0.22% -3% -10% -13%
Median 27% 13% 27% 2% 8% 2% 12% 0.52% 0.30% 0.31% 0% -7% -12%
Source: Barclays Research, Company reports, S&P Global Market Intelligence, and Federal Reserve
Asset quality
Loan Mix EPS Impact
Resi Credit Other Normalized
What If Net R/E Card Cnsmr NCO Ratio
Charge-offs Go HISTORICAL
AVERAGE 0.83% 0.55% 0.45% 4.45% 1.11% 0.45% 0.50%
to Historical NCO RATIO
Average BAC 28% 7% 27% 12% 5% 3% 18% 1.10% 0.39% 0.39% 0% -19% -24%
BBT 19% 25% 27% 2% 12% 1% 12% 0.72% 0.38% 0.40% 1% -12% -18%
BK 6% 5% 16% 0% 5% 2% 65% 0.54% -0.01% 0.00% 0% -7% -8%
C 27% 3% 13% 23% 3% 0% 31% 1.52% 1.06% 1.10% 1% -14% -24%
CFG 29% 14% 29% 2% 20% 3% 4% 0.77% 0.29% 0.29% 0% -24% -32%
CMA 54% 24% 8% 1% 1% 1% 12% 0.71% 0.09% 0.13% 1% -18% -23%
COF 13% 13% 0% 43% 23% 0% 8% 2.39% 2.67% 2.71% 2% 13% -6%
FITB 40% 12% 24% 3% 11% 4% 6% 0.82% 0.35% 0.40% 2% -17% -24%
HBAN 29% 15% 27% 2% 21% 3% 3% 0.78% 0.27% 0.33% 3% -21% -28%
JPM 18% 12% 29% 15% 5% 0% 21% 1.16% 0.51% 0.64% 4% -15% -21%
KEY 37% 19% 19% 2% 6% 5% 12% 0.73% 0.27% 0.26% 0% -18% -23%
MTB 19% 38% 27% 1% 9% 1% 4% 0.65% 0.17% 0.17% 0% -15% -20%
NTRS 15% 13% 22% 0% 1% 1% 49% 0.55% -0.02% -0.05% 0% -9% -11%
PNC 35% 16% 21% 2% 10% 4% 13% 0.77% 0.16% 0.26% 4% -18% -23%
RF 28% 16% 30% 2% 7% 1% 16% 0.70% 0.46% 0.46% 0% -10% -16%
STI 29% 13% 27% 2% 18% 3% 8% 0.78% 0.26% 0.23% -1% -26% -33%
USB 26% 13% 29% 8% 11% 5% 8% 0.97% 0.50% 0.52% 1% -14% -21%
WFC 20% 14% 35% 5% 7% 2% 17% 0.79% 0.30% 0.22% -3% -19% -24%
Median 27% 13% 27% 2% 8% 2% 12% 0.77% 0.30% 0.31% 0% -16% -23%
Asset quality
Loan Mix EPS Impact
Resi Credit Other Stressed
Stressed Net C&I CRE
R/E Card Cnsmr
Lease Other
NCO Ratio
NCO Prov/ Matches Matches Exceeds Normal
Charge-offs in a 4Q91 NCO
2.48% 2.62% 0.24% 4.64% 1.29% 0.87% 1.30%
RATIO
Hypothetical
BAC 28% 7% 27% 12% 5% 3% 18% 1.84% 0.39% 0.39% 0% -38% -48%
4Q91 Scenario BBT 19% 25% 27% 2% 12% 1% 12% 1.64% 0.38% 0.40% 1% -48% -61%
BK 6% 5% 16% 0% 5% 2% 65% 1.25% -0.01% 0.00% 0% -16% -19%
C 27% 3% 13% 23% 3% 0% 31% 2.29% 1.06% 1.10% 1% -40% -56%
CFG 29% 14% 29% 2% 20% 3% 4% 1.56% 0.29% 0.29% 0% -65% -80%
CMA 54% 24% 8% 1% 1% 1% 12% 2.19% 0.09% 0.13% 1% -64% -78%
COF 13% 13% 0% 43% 23% 0% 8% 3.06% 2.67% 2.71% 2% -14% -39%
FITB 40% 12% 24% 3% 11% 4% 6% 1.76% 0.35% 0.40% 2% -55% -70%
HBAN 29% 15% 27% 2% 21% 3% 3% 1.59% 0.27% 0.33% 3% -58% -73%
JPM 18% 12% 29% 15% 5% 0% 21% 1.85% 0.51% 0.64% 4% -34% -45%
KEY 37% 19% 19% 2% 6% 5% 12% 1.82% 0.27% 0.26% 0% -59% -73%
MTB 19% 38% 27% 1% 9% 1% 4% 1.75% 0.17% 0.17% 0% -52% -63%
NTRS 15% 13% 22% 0% 1% 1% 49% 1.40% -0.02% -0.05% 0% -23% -27%
PNC 35% 16% 21% 2% 10% 4% 13% 1.78% 0.16% 0.26% 4% -53% -65%
RF 28% 16% 30% 2% 7% 1% 16% 1.58% 0.46% 0.46% 0% -46% -59%
STI 29% 13% 27% 2% 18% 3% 8% 1.58% 0.26% 0.23% -1% -63% -78%
USB 26% 13% 29% 8% 11% 5% 8% 1.73% 0.50% 0.52% 1% -38% -49%
WFC 20% 14% 35% 5% 7% 2% 17% 1.50% 0.30% 0.22% -3% -42% -52%
Median 27% 13% 27% 2% 8% 2% 12% 1.74% 0.30% 0.31% 0% -47% -60%
Asset quality
Loan Mix EPS Impact
Resi Credit Other Stressed
Stressed Net R/E Card Cnsmr NCO Ratio
Charge-offs in a 4Q01 NCO
2.37% 0.21% 0.21% 6.43% 1.65% 0.85% 1.00%
RATIO
Hypothetical BAC 28% 7% 27% 12% 5% 3% 18% 1.81% 0.39% 0.39% 0% -37% -47%
4Q01 Scenario BBT 19% 25% 27% 2% 12% 1% 12% 1.04% 0.38% 0.40% 1% -25% -33%
BK 6% 5% 16% 0% 5% 2% 65% 0.93% -0.01% 0.00% 0% -12% -14%
C 27% 3% 13% 23% 3% 0% 31% 2.52% 1.06% 1.10% 1% -48% -65%
CFG 29% 14% 29% 2% 20% 3% 4% 1.28% 0.29% 0.29% 0% -50% -63%
CMA 54% 24% 8% 1% 1% 1% 12% 1.51% 0.09% 0.13% 1% -43% -53%
COF 13% 13% 0% 43% 23% 0% 8% 3.56% 2.67% 2.71% 2% -34% -63%
FITB 40% 12% 24% 3% 11% 4% 6% 1.50% 0.35% 0.40% 2% -45% -57%
HBAN 29% 15% 27% 2% 21% 3% 3% 1.27% 0.27% 0.33% 3% -44% -56%
JPM 18% 12% 29% 15% 5% 0% 21% 1.74% 0.51% 0.64% 4% -31% -41%
KEY 37% 19% 19% 2% 6% 5% 12% 1.34% 0.27% 0.26% 0% -41% -51%
MTB 19% 38% 27% 1% 9% 1% 4% 0.83% 0.17% 0.17% 0% -22% -27%
NTRS 15% 13% 22% 0% 1% 1% 49% 0.93% -0.02% -0.05% 0% -15% -18%
PNC 35% 16% 21% 2% 10% 4% 13% 1.38% 0.16% 0.26% 4% -39% -49%
RF 28% 16% 30% 2% 7% 1% 16% 1.17% 0.46% 0.46% 0% -29% -39%
STI 29% 13% 27% 2% 18% 3% 8% 1.31% 0.26% 0.23% -1% -50% -62%
USB 26% 13% 29% 8% 11% 5% 8% 1.54% 0.50% 0.52% 1% -32% -42%
WFC 20% 14% 35% 5% 7% 2% 17% 1.19% 0.30% 0.22% -3% -32% -39%
Median 27% 13% 27% 2% 8% 2% 12% 1.32% 0.30% 0.31% 0% -36% -48%
2019 Outlook Survey

Overview
Survey Our (Select) Responses
• For the 8th straight year, we conducted our Brief survey • Will the BKX rise or fall in 2019?
during the second full week of December. Rise
• While each of the past 7 years we only asked the same two
questions, this year, we thought we would press our luck and • Will the BKX outperform or underperform the
go with a few more (though the first two questions match the S&P 500 in 2019?
prior years). Outperform
• We also made it anonymous.
• Which do you think will be the best performing
• Thank you to all those that participated.
G-SIB stock in 2019?
JPM
Response Mix (n=226)
Self classification • Which do think will be the biggest driver of performance in 2019?
Other Provision/net charge-offs
13%
Regulator
2% • How do you expect industry net interest margins to behave in
2019?
Long only investor Up 3-7bps
45%
Bank exec/board
member • What are your 2019 loan growth expectations?
21%
Up 2-4%
• What are your 2019 net charge-off ratio expectations?

Long/short investor
Up 5-10bps
Source: Barclays Research 19%
How do you expect the BKX to perform in 2019?
• Looking at last year’s survey for 2018’s expected performance, 84% of respondents expected the BKX to increase and
75% said it would outperform the S&P 500. Both response percentages approximated historical averages. Still, the BKX
fell and underperformed in 2018. Only 7% expected this.
• Looking at this year’s survey, 70% of respondents expect the BKX to increase in 2019. This is below the narrow 83-88%
range seen over the past seven years. The highest year (2015 at 87.6%) was the only year the BKX declined (until this
year). Long-only and bank execs (around 75%) are more bullish than hedge funds (63%).
• A lower 60% of respondents expect the BKX to outperform the S&P 500 in 2019. This is the second lowest percentage in
the past 7 years. Only 2014 was lower. In these 7 years, that was also the worst relative year for bank stocks (until this
year). Of note, ~70% of long-only investors expect the BKX to outperform the S&P 500 in 2019, compared to 60% of
hedge funds and only ~50% of bank execs.
Will the BKX outperform or underperform the S&P 500
Will the BKX rise or fall in 2019?
in 2019?
% of respondents BKX up BKX perf % of respondents BKX rel perf
BKX outperform
90% 40% 90% 20%
85% 85%
30% 15%
80% 80%
75% 20% 10%
75%
70% 10% 70% 5%
65% 65% 0%
60% 0%
60% -5%
55% -10% 55%
50% -10%
-20% 50%
45% 45% -15%
40% -30% 40% -20%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Response BKX performance Response BKX performance vs. S&P 500
LO: Long-only. HF: Hedge fund. Exec: Bank board member, executive, IR.
Which is the best/worst performing G-SIB stock in 2019?
Which do you think will be the best performing G-SIB Which do you think will be the worst performing G-SIB
stock in 2019? stock in 2019?
• Although the majority of investors expect the BKX to • Despite GS’s underperformance versus peers in 2018,
increase and outperform in 2019, respondents also expect investors expect it to lag in 2019 as well.
JPM, which is perceived to be one of the more defensive GS was selected the most by both long-only and hedge
banks, to be the best performing G-SIB bank stock next funds.
year. • Despite WFC placing third (out of 8) when asked which will
• BAC, which has positioned itself to be more defensive, be the best performer, it placed second when asked which
was second. WFC (a turnaround) was third. will be the worst. C was the third most chosen name here.
• The two trust banks (STT, BK), along with MS, were • While MS was one of the least chosen names for a top
chosen least, across investor types. performer, it was also the least chosen bank to be at the
bottom (by long-only, hedge funds, and execs).
% of respondents Best performing G-SIB stock
40% % of respondents Worst performing G-SIB stock
30%
35%
30% 25%
25% 20%
20%
15%
15%
10% 10%
5% 5%
0%
JPM BAC WFC GS C MS BK STT 0%
GS WFC C STT BK BAC JPM MS
Which is the best/worst performing Super Regional in 2019?
Which do you think will be the best Super Regional Which do you think will be the worst Super Regional
bank stock in 2019? bank stock in 2019?
• Despite the majority of investors expecting the BKX to increase • COF, followed by CFG, were most often picked to be the
and outperform, respondents appear to be very defensive when worst performers in 2019. They have the two highest
assessing the super regionals, with USB followed closely by percentages of revenues coming from net interest income
PNC and then BBT placing in the top 3. These 3 have the
and are among the more credit sensitive names. FITB
highest percentage of revenues from fee income (i.e. less credit
rounded out the top 3.
sensitive).
• Still, CFG was fourth (out of 10), which many investors view as • COF, CFG, USB and FITB placed in the top 4 for both
more offensive. long-only and hedge funds (though very few bank execs
• For hedge funds, CFG followed by USB led, while long-only and picked USB).
bank execs favored USB and PNC. • MTB, followed by PNC and BBT, were the least chosen
• STI, followed by KEY, received the least number of responses stocks for this question.
overall. % of respondents Best performing Super Regional % of respondents Worst performing Super Regional
25% 25%
20% 20%
15% 15%
10% 10%
5% 5%
0% 0%
USB PNC BBT CFG FITB RF MTB COF KEY STI COF CFG FITB USB RF KEY STI BBT PNC MTB
2019 Outlook
Which do think will be the biggest driver of How do you expect industry net interest margins to
performance in 2019? behave in 2019?
• Investors still appear very focused on net interest margins. • Two-thirds of respondents see net interest margins expanding
Despite the industry posting double-digit basis point NIM in 2019, with almost half of those expecting an increase of
increases in 2017 and 2018 (the first time since 1991-92), the 3bps or more. This would mark the 4th straight year of NIM
BKX underperformed in both 2017 and 2018. expansion, a feat not seen since the 1970s.
• Despite recession fears, loan loss provision/net charge-offs, • Only 11% of respondents expect NIMs to decline 3bps or more
came in second, not first. Loan growth, deposit growth, and and only 1 person expects to see a decline of 7bps or more in
profitably rounded out the top 5. 2019.
• Long-only investors believe NIM closely followed by NCOs are • The sell-side consensus for the median bank under coverage is
most important, while hedge funds see NCOs as most important up 5bps for 2019E.
followed by deposits. Still, bank execs see NIM as the main • Expectations are similar for long-only, hedge funds and execs
driver, followed by deposits (a distant second). Capital return, alike.
fee income and expenses were ranked last by all three groups.
% of respondents % of respondents Industry-wide NIM
Key income statement/balance sheet item
30% 40%
25% 35%
20%
30%
15%
25%
10%
5% 20%
0% 15%
10%
5%
0%
Up 7bps-plus Up 3-7bps Up 0-3bps Down 0-3bps Down 3-7bps Down 7bps-plus
2019 Outlook
What are your 2019 loan growth expectations? What are your 2019 net charge-off expectations?
• The vast majority of respondents (94%) expect loans to • Most (95% of respondents) expect net charge-offs to be
grow in 2019, with half of the total respondents (47%) stable to higher in 2019, with many (44% of the total)
anticipating 2-4% growth (40% see up 0-2%, 7% at up 4%- expecting a 5-10bp increase. Another 36% expect NCOs to
plus). be stable to up 5bps and 15% anticipate an increase of
• Only 6% of respondents expect loan balances to be stable 10bps or more.
to down next year, and all of these expect it to decline 2% • Only 4% expect NCOs to decline in 2019, so any increase
or less. should not be a surprise.
• The sell-side consensus for our coverage’s composite is • The sell-side consensus for our median bank under
up 3.6% for 2019E. coverage is up 5bps for 2019E.
• Hedge funds appear a tad more bullish than long-only and • Expectations appear similar for long-only, hedge funds and
bank execs. bank execs.
% of respondents Industry-wide loan growth % of respondents Industry-wide NCOs
50% 50%
45% 45%
40% 40%
35% 35%
30% 30%
25% 25%
20% 20%
15% 15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
Up 10bps-plus Up 5-10bps Up 0-5bps Down 0-5bps Down 5-10bps Down 10bps-
Up 4%-plus Up 2-4% Up 0-2% Down 0-2% Down 2-4% Down 4%-plus plus
2019 Outlook by Type
Will the BKX rise or fall in 2019? Super Regional stock performance leader/laggard
BEST LO HF Exec WORST LO HF
LO HF Exec
BBT 9% 8% 13% BBT 7% 8%
Up 74% 63% 75% CFG 9% 18% 2% CFG 14% 11%
Down 26% 37% 25% COF 6% 8% 9% COF 24% 16%
FITB 6% 13% 9% FITB 10% 11%
BKX outperform or underperform the S&P 500? KEY 4% 8%
KEY 6% 5% 2%
LO HF Exec MTB 5% 8% 13% MTB 6% 5%
PNC 22% 13% 20% PNC 3% 8%
Outperform 71% 60% 49%
RF 7% 10% 11% RF 8% 11%
Underperform 29% 40% 51% STI 3% 5% 4% STI 10% 3%
USB 25% 15% 20% USB 13% 21%
G-SIB stock performance leader/laggard

Which do think will be the biggest driver of performance in 2019?
BEST LO HF Exec WORST LO HF
LO HF Exec
BAC 28% 14% 21% BAC 7% 10%
Loans 16% 12% 9%
BK 5% 2% 0% BK 13% 15%
Deposits 5% 19% 18%
C 13% 12% 4% C 15% 10%
Net interest margin 30% 14% 34%
GS 9% 12% 9% GS 27% 22%
Fee income 2% 0% 4%
JPM 24% 38% 47% JPM 3% 10%
Expenses 2% 2% 7%
MS 5% 7% 0% MS 2% 5%
Loan loss provision/NCOs 28% 38% 14%
STT 2% 2% 2% STT 16% 15%
Capital return 5% 2% 2%
WFC 13% 12% 18% WFC 16% 15%
ROTCE, ROA 12% 12% 13%
2019 Outlook by Type
How do you expect industry net interest LO HF Exec
margins to behave in 2019? Up 7bps-plus 4% 2% 4%

Up 3-7bps 26% 21% 27%
Up 0-3bps 34% 36% 36%
Down 0-3bps 23% 24% 24%
Down 3-7bps 13% 14% 9%
Down 7bps-plus 0% 2% 0%
What are your 2019 loan growth LO HF Exec

expectations? Up 4%-plus 6% 17% 4%
Up 2-4% 45% 43% 55%
Up 0-2% 44% 29% 38%
Down 0-2% 5% 10% 4%
Down 2-4% 0% 0% 0%
Down 4%-plus 0% 2% 0%
LO HF Exec
Up 10bps-plus 18% 14% 13%

What are your 2019 net charge-off ratio Up 5-10bps 43% 45% 46%
expectations? Up 0-5bps 35% 33% 36%
Down 0-5bps 2% 7% 2%
Down 5-10bps 1% 0% 4%
LO: Long-only. HF: Hedge fund. Exec: Bank board member, executive, IR. Down 10bps-plus 0% 0% 0%
History Lesson

Historical perspective
Some observations from the following pages Asset quality is very benign
• From 1995 to 2015, there were only two years (2002 and 2009; we • After increasing on a y-o-y basis for 8 straight quarters, industry NCO’s were
unchanged in both 1Q18 and 2Q18 before declining 1bp in 3Q18 and
exclude 2010 b/c it was driven by an accounting change)
improving 4bps in 4Q18. Sequentially, NCOs increased 5bps, down from the
when industry-wide net interest margins increased. Of note, bank 8bp increase witnessed in each of the prior three 4Q’s. At 0.48%, NCOs are
stocks fell in both 2002 and 2009 and outperformed the S&P 500 in roughly half their 34-year quarterly average of 0.94% and only 1bp above its
2002 but underperformed in 2009. Looking at the remaining 19 lowest 4Q over this span (1Q15).
years when NIMs declined, bank stocks were unchanged or • C&I NCOs declined 10bps y-o-y (8th straight quarter of improvement) to
increased two-thirds of the time and performed in-line with or 0.32%, 60% below its historical average of 0.83%. Still, this followed 7
outperformed the market more than half the time. consecutive quarters of increases (energy). R/E NCOs declined 2bps y-o-y to
0.01%, its 35th straight quarter of declines. CRE was 0.02% and resi R/E was
• Looking at the past 25 years I have been on the sell side, there
nil. This compares to historical averages of 0.55% and 0.45%, respectively. Of
have been 10 years in which Fed Funds ended the year higher note, CRE losses have now been 5bps or less for 16 straight quarters. After
than where it began, 7 years where it was unchanged, and 7 where 11 straight quarters of y-o-y increases, credit card NCOs improved 6bps y-o-y
it closed lower. Of note, only 30% of the time when rates to 3.57%, 20% below its historical 4Q average (4.49%). Still, other consumer
increased, the BKX outperformed the S&P 500. This compares to increased 3bps y-o-y, its 9th increase in 12 quarters, to 0.97% (long-term
57% of time when Fed Funds was unchanged and 57% when rates avg. 1.11%).
declined. • Delinquencies improved 1bp linked quarter in 4Q18 to 1.57%. DQs have been
stable or lower in 33 of the past 35 quarters and stand at their lowest level
• Looking at the past 81 years, in those years when NCOs declined, since 3Q06. On a y-o-y basis, DQs improved 25bps. DQs have declined by
bank stocks outperformed the S&P 500 56% of the time and more than 15bps y-o-y in each of the past 33 quarters. After rising 10 straight
underperformed 44%. In the years when NCOs increased, but by quarters y-o-y, credit card DQs were unchanged in 2Q18 and improved 3bps
less than 20bps, it was a 50%/50% split. However, when NCOs in 3Q18. Still, they increased 7bps in 4Q18 to 2.63%. Also, other consumer
rose more than 20bps, banks stocks lagged in 7 out of the 8 rose 13bps y-o-y to 2.35%, its 11th straight increase. C&I DQs improved for
instances.” Point being, it’s ok if NCO’s go up…but if they go up a the 7th straight quarter on a y-o-y basis, and for the 10th straight quarter
sequentially, to 0.94%, a 3-year low. Resi R/E DQs declined by over 45bps y-
lot, get out of the way. Still…
o-y for the 24th straight quarter, to its lowest level since 3Q07. And, CRE DQs
improved on a y-o-y basis for the 33nd straight quarter, falling 4bps.
Historical perspective – annual
Lighter shade signifies a period of recession.

Source: Barclays Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Haver Analytics, Refinitiv, FDIC, and Federal Reserve


Historical perspective – quarterly


.
Disclosures

Analyst Certification and Important Disclosures
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Important Disclosures (continued)
Mentioned Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)
Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY, 22-Mar-2019, USD 26.07), Overweight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/E/J/K/L/M/N
Bank of America (BAC, 22-Mar-2019, USD 27.01), Equal Weight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/GE/I/J/K/L/M/N
BB&T Corp. (BBT, 22-Mar-2019, USD 45.09), Equal Weight/Positive, CD/CE/J/K/M/N
Capital One Financial (COF, 22-Mar-2019, USD 80.00), Overweight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/I/J/K/L/M/N
Citigroup Inc. (C, 22-Mar-2019, USD 60.98), Overweight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/E/GE/I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG, 22-Mar-2019, USD 31.77), Equal Weight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/I/J/K/L/M
Comerica Inc. (CMA, 22-Mar-2019, USD 72.07), Underweight/Positive, CD/CE/J/K/M/N
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB, 22-Mar-2019, USD 24.62), Equal Weight/Positive, CD/CE/J/K/M/N
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS, 22-Mar-2019, USD 188.96), Equal Weight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/J/K/L/M/N
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN, 22-Mar-2019, USD 12.25), Equal Weight/Positive, CD/CE/J/K/M/N
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM, 22-Mar-2019, USD 99.76), Overweight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/GE/I/J/K/L/M/N/S
KeyCorp (KEY, 22-Mar-2019, USD 14.97), Underweight/Positive, CD/CE/I/J/K/M/N
M&T Bank (MTB, 22-Mar-2019, USD 153.79), Overweight/Positive, CD/J/K/M/N
Morgan Stanley (MS, 22-Mar-2019, USD 41.72), Equal Weight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/E/I/J/K/L/M/N
Northern Trust (NTRS, 22-Mar-2019, USD 88.59), Equal Weight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/J/K/L/M/N
PNC Financial Services Gp (PNC, 22-Mar-2019, USD 119.18), Equal Weight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/J/K/L/M/N
Regions Financial (RF, 22-Mar-2019, USD 13.53), Underweight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/I/J/K/L/M/N
State Street (STT, 22-Mar-2019, USD 65.00), Overweight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/J/K/L/M/N
SunTrust Banks (STI, 22-Mar-2019, USD 57.40), Equal Weight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/I/J/K/L/M/N
The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK, 22-Mar-2019, USD 50.50), Overweight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/E/I/J/K/L/M/N
U.S. Bancorp (USB, 22-Mar-2019, USD 48.28), Overweight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/I/J/K/L/M/N
Wells Fargo (WFC, 22-Mar-2019, USD 48.31), Overweight/Positive, A/CD/CE/D/I/J/K/L/M/N
Prices are sourced from Refinitiv as of the last available closing price in the relevant trading market, unless another time and source is indicated.
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Barclays State of The Industry March 2019

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Barclays State of The Industry March 2019

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Equity Research

March 25, 2019

U.S. Large-Cap Banks

State of the Industry Inna Blyakher

March 2019 Matthew Kesselhaut

Jason M. Goldberg, CFA I Managing Director

LARGE-CAP BANKS Industry View: Positive

BKX 91.76 112.0 - 79.9

BKX (8%) 7% (20%) 16%

Priced March 22, 2019.

Jason M. Goldberg, CFA I Managing Director

Source: Barclays Research, Company reports, and Federal Reserve

Digital Users vs. Deposit Market Share 2019E Technology Spend

120 36% $30

Changes in Consumer Delinquency Rates Post Crisis Changes

18x 110% 130%

2019 Barclays Conferences

Source: Barclays Research

Jason M. Goldberg, CFA I Managing Director

Fee income          Trends expected to be varied

Expenses          Despite revenue improvement, costs remain a focus

PPNR          NII, fees aid revenue growth with positive leverage

Net income          Higher PPNR mitigated by increased provision

EPS          Revenue growth and lower shares offset higher provision

Legend:  Up double-digits  Up single-digits  Relatively stable  Down single-digits  Down double-digits

EPS Growth Post Crisis Tangible Book Value Growth

-10% 300bp -30%

Source: Barclays Research, Federal Reserve, Haver Analytics, and Refinitiv

C&I CRE Mortgage Credit cards Net Interest Margin (right)

CMA MTB WFC COF STT

BK STT CRE STT STT ALLY

Source: Barclays Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence

40% 20% 80% 6%

20% 10% 60% 5%

-20% -10% 20% 3%

10% 20% 60% 10%

-10% -20% 20% 6%

-30% -60% -20% 2%

Resi Mortgage Lending Standards Net % of Tightening Standards on Mortgages vs.

Source: Barclays Research, FDIC, Federal Reserve, and Refinitiv

Percent Asset/Liability-Sensitive Change in Asset/Liability-Sensitivity

EPS Impact -1%

Deposit Rates vs. Fed Funds Loans vs. Deposits

Source: Barclays Research, FDIC, and Federal Reserve

• Impact of LCR and the increased importance of liquidity 0% 0.00%

Deposit Mix by Type Deposit Mix by Line of Business

FITB 8 11 4 9 5 10 14 4 65 9 HBAN 7 Notes:

Investment Banking Fees, 2009-19E Mortgage Originations

Includes MBA projections for 2018E-21E.

Efficiency Ratio, by Asset Size Group Banks vs. Branches

Residential RE Commercial RE C&I Consumer Net Charge-off Ratio NPA Ratio

1.00% 1.00% 3.0%

-0.50% -2.00% 1.5% 1.0x

U.S. Leveraged Loan Issuance CRE NCOs vs. Unemployment Rate

$350 3.0% 10%

Auto Delinquencies vs. Unemployment Rate Auto Loans Outstanding by Lender

Basel III CET1 Fully Phased-in Est'd Fed Minimum Requirement

SLR Ratios, 4Q18 TLAC

Source: Barclays Research and Company reports

CCAR 2019E Payout Ratios CCAR 2019E Implied Yields

Dividend Share Repurchase

Return on Assets Return on Tangible Common Equity

ROA Median ROTCE Median