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Corona and The World Economy
Corona and The World Economy
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• What is measured?
• new cases
• number of sick people
• Deaths
• Small versus large numbers
• Linear versus loglinear axes
• Read: Our world in data “Coronavirus
Disease (COVID-19) – Research and
Statistics by Max Roser, Hannah
Ritchie and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina”),
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir
us
15/03/2020 12:21 Coronanomics 9
The endemic curve
Endemic curve (number of current Reported curve in the media (number
patients) of positive tests or deaths)
How to read Graphs
Linear Logarithmic
How to read Graphs
15/03/2020https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
12:21 accessed
Coronanomics March 13, 2020 11
B
Supply versus Demand
Wealth effects
Fear
Avoidance
deviation from levels at the start of 2008Q1) share of vertical specialization in trade
X
Theory of trade shocks
X
Impossible
Production
possibilities
frontier
Good 2
Consumption point
Theory of trade shocks
Terms of trade
P
Import
C
Welfare over time
Free
trade, full
specializa
tion utility
Theory of trade shocks
Autarky
utility
Tijd
Liberalization: from autarky to free trade
Domestic production =
consumption after trade shock
Welfare over time
Free
trade, full
Trade shock
specializ-
ation
utility
Theory of trade shocks
Autarky
utility
Welfare over time
Free
trade, full
specializa
tion utility
Theory of trade shocks
Autarky
utility
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Stylized Facts
8
2500
6
4
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2
China EU 0
USA and Canada South Korea 0 10 20 30 40 50
Iran China EU USA and Canada
15/03/2020 12:21 Coronanomics 27
Preliminary Findings
• China has been able to contain and the same seems true for South
Korea. The top in the number of patients occurs after about 4 weeks.
• The virus spreads and as it does the epicenter of the pandemic shifts
toward Europe and then probably the US.
• This generates a cycle in the number of patients.
Stylized Facts
50
40
Stylized Facts
30
20
10
0
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Accessed March 15,2020
15/03/2020 12:21 Coronanomics 29
4.Before Corona: Deglobalization 2.0
1% 10%
Stylized Facts
0%
5%
-1%
0%
-2%
-5%
-3%
1910-12
1924-29
1930-38
2020-2023
1880s
1890s
1900s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
-10%
1880
1888
1896
1904
1912
1930
1938
1956
1964
1972
1980
1988
1996
2004
2012
2020
15/03/2020 12:21 Coronanomics 30
Some differences and similarities of the
context of the 1930s and the 2000s
1930s 2000s
Long-run reductions of trade costs ● ●
New modes of transportation ● ●
Revolution in communication ● ●
Entry of new countries (recent capitalist countries) ● ●
Key innovations ● ●
Financial innovation and capital account liberalization ● ●
Changing hegemony ● ●
Saving surplus hegemon ●
Multilateral trade governance ●
Protectionism ●
Economically motivated mass migration ●
Initial international policy coordination ●
Substantial presence of international value chains ●
15/03/2020 12:21 Coronanomics 31
Trade developments
World trade collapse 2008/9 and world Trade weakness especially since mid
trade slowdown 2019
Stylized Facts
120
Stylized Facts
100
80
60
2000 2005 2010 2015
Date accessed: March 16 2020
15/03/2020 12:21 Coronanomics 33
Other correlates of deglobalization
50
8
40
3 6
30
4
2 20
2
10
0 0
1
-2 -10
0 -4 -20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
1000
Stylized Facts
500
Source: World Bank Migration and Remittances Data, Annual data (April 2018), available at
http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/migrationremittancesdiasporaissues/brief/migrati 0
on-remittances-data and accessed August 8, 2018 and IMF WEO data base (April
2018). 1980 1990 2000 2010
Costs
Benefits
Stylized Facts
Net benefits
Intensity of globalization
• If irrationality, denial and fake statistics get the overhand this may
develop into another global financial crisis – even though the real
economy impact is manageable
• You can help! Stay calm, stay safe.