RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF DC MICRO-GRID INCLUDING A PROTECTION SYSTEM USING FAULT TREE

METHOD

By

Jehad Mohammad Hedel

Ahmad M. Abu Elrub

Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of M.Sc./MA in electrical
engineering

At

The Faculty of Graduate Studies

Jordan University of Science and Technology

August 19, 2019

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF DC MICRO-GRID INCLUDING A PROTECTION SYSTEM USING FAULT TREE

METHOD

By

Jehad Mohammad Hedel

Signature of Author ………………………

I
‫‪Committee Member‬‬ ‫‪Signature and Date‬‬

‫)‪Dr. Ahmad Abu Elrub (Chairman‬‬ ‫‪……………………….‬‬

‫)‪Dr. Saher Albatran (Member‬‬ ‫‪……………………….‬‬

‫)‪Dr. Hssain Almasri (External Examiner‬‬ ‫‪………………………..‬‬

‫‪August 19, 2019‬‬

‫تفويض‬

‫نحن الموقعين أدناه‪ ،‬نتعهد بمنح جامعة" العلوم والتكنولوجيا االردنية حرية التصرف في نشر محتوى الرسالة الجامعية‪ ،‬بحيث تعود حقوق‬
‫‪.‬الملكية الفكرية لرسالة الماجستير الى الجامعة وفق القوانين واالنظمة والتعليمات المتعلقة بالملكية الفكرية وبراءة االختراع‬

‫المشرف الرئيس‬ ‫الطالب‬

‫‪........................‬‬

‫‪.........................‬‬

‫التوقيع والتاريخ‬

‫‪........................‬‬

‫‪........................‬‬

‫الرقم الجامعي والتوقيع‬

‫‪.........................‬‬

‫‪.........................‬‬

‫‪II‬‬
ACKNOWLEDGMENT

Firstly, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor dr. Ahmad abu elrub for the continuous
support of my master study and related research, for his patience, motivation, and immense knowledge.
His guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis. I could not have imagined
having a better advisor and mentor for my master study.

Besides my advisor, I would like to thank my thesis committee: Dr. Saher Albatran and Dr. Hussein
Almasri for their insightful comments and encouragement.

Finally, I would like to thank my family: my parents and to my brothers and sister for supporting me
spiritually throughout writing this thesis and my life in general.

TABLE OF CONTENT

Chapter One: Introduction 1.1 Context...............................................................................................................................VI

1.2 Literature Review.......................................................................................................................................................2
1.3 Objective of the Thesis...............................................................................................................................................4
Chapter Two: Mathematical Formulation for Reliability Analysis and Importance Measure...............................................4
2.1 Quantitative Reliability...............................................................................................................................................4
2.1.1 Distribution Function F(t)........................................................................................................................................4
2.1.2 Reliability Function R(t)...........................................................................................................................................5
2.1.3 Failure Rate Function z(t)........................................................................................................................................5
2.1.4 Mean Time to Failure..............................................................................................................................................5
2.1.5 The Exponential Distribution...................................................................................................................................5
2.2 Importance Measures................................................................................................................................................6
2.2.1 Birnbaum measure..................................................................................................................................................6
2.2.2 Criticality Importance..............................................................................................................................................6
2.2.3 Fussel-Vesely Importance........................................................................................................................................6
2.2.4 Risk Achievement Worth.........................................................................................................................................7

III
 2.2.5 Risk Reduction Worth..............................................................................................................................................7
Chapter Three: MG Protection System and Its Reliability....................................................................................................7
3.1 Protection System......................................................................................................................................................8
3.1.1 Cable Protection System.........................................................................................................................................8
3.1.2 Diesel Generator Protection System.......................................................................................................................8
3.1.3 Wind Generator Protection System........................................................................................................................8
3.1.4 Photovoltaic Protection System..............................................................................................................................8
3.1.5 Bus bar Protection System......................................................................................................................................8
3.2 Reliability Protection System......................................................................................................................................8
Chapter Five: MG Case Studies............................................................................................................................................9
5.1 Case Study One: Reliability Assessment Of MG........................................................................................................10
5.2 Case Study Two: Reliability of MG Protection Scheme.............................................................................................13
Chapter Six: Conclusions....................................................................................................................................................15
6.1 Conclusions..............................................................................................................................................................15
6.2 Future work..............................................................................................................................................................15
References......................................................................................................................................................................... 16

List of Figures

Fig.1. Example of MG structure...........................................................................................................................................VI

Fig.2. DC ring MG protection scheme being analyzed for reliability.[39].............................................................................7
Fig.3. External and internal faults scenarios.........................................................................................................................8
Fig.4. Effect of component type on reliability data..............................................................................................................9
Fig.18. FT of 5 kw PV array.................................................................................................................................................11
Fig.19. FT of 10 kw PV array...............................................................................................................................................11
Fig.20. FT of battery storage system..................................................................................................................................12

LIST OF TABLES

Table 6. Importance measures of MG basic events for a period of one year.....................................................................11

Table 7. Top event failure probability for different periods of time...................................................................................12

IV
Table 8. RAWs and RRWs of MG basic events for a period of one year.............................................................................13
Table 9. Basic events for protection scheme components and their failure rate...............................................................14

ABSTRACT

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF DC MICRO-GRID INCLUDING

A PROTECTION SYSTEM USING FAULT TREE METHOD

BY

JEHAD MOHAMMAD HEDEL

The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the reliability of DC ring micro-grid (MG) in islanded mode by fault
tree analysis (FTA). Qualitative and quantitative reliability of DC ring MG are analyzed. For ring
configuration, there is a possibility for repeated events to appear. Which result in wrong reliability
calculation of the top event (reliability objective) using FTA, Therefore, Relyence software is used to build
MG fault tree (FT) which reduce the risk associated with repeated events. The reliability objective for DC
ring MG is to support an AC load of 5kw. The results of reliability analysis show that the failure
V
probability of reliability objective is 0.139057, while the failure probability considering transmission lines
is 0.158955. After that, a protection scheme is suggested for the DC ring MG, and the reliability of this
protection scheme is analyzed using the FT method. The mean time to failure (MTTF) is obtained for DC
MG protection scheme. Based on this reliability index, engineers can anticipate the reliability of the
overall system. In this process, the importance of the system components influencing the overall system
reliability is obtained. For protection system, results show that cable protection system is the most
important protection function while the diesel generator protection is the least important one. The 6 bus
DC MG with ring configuration is compared to single bus DC MG with radial configuration using FTA, the
results show that ring configuration is more reliable than radial configuration, since the failure
probability for ring configuration is 0.049539, while the failure probability for radial configuration is
0.051857.

VI
Chapter One: Introduction 1.1 Context
It is a matter of fact that electrical power has a vital role in today’s society since it is concerned in most
aspects of everyone's routine. Therefore, electrical power system development occupies a central
position within the economic, social, technological, cultural and industrial growth of humanity.

With the rise in global awareness concerning the temperature change and air pollution, there has been
an increasing shift towards utilizing renewable energy sources (RESs) such as microturbines, wind
turbines, fuel cells and photovoltaic (PV) integrated with energy storage [1]. These types of RESs are
affordable and they do not have harmful effects on the environment.

For this regard, research and implementation of microgrid (MG) have increased in recent years by the
increasing need for reliable, secure, efficient and clean source of electricity. Therefore, a considerable
amount of analysis and implementation of MG has been conducted to enhance the advancement of MG
technology.

A MG is a cluster of interconnected loads and distributed energy resources that act as one governable
entity with regard to the grid. MG is capable to operate in grid-connected mode and islanded mode (IM)
after being disconnected from the utility grid. Furthermore, it should be able to handle the transition
between them. In the grid-connected mode, services are provided by the joint operation of the MG and
the main grid as well. Therefore, the MG frequency is regulated by the main grid, hence potential power
mismatch will only affect the energy exchange between the MG and the utility grid [2]. On the other
hand, real and reactive power generated among the MG in the islanded mode together with that
provided by the energy storage system, ought to be in balance with the demand of existing loads.
Therefore, a MG ability to work in islanded mode will increase the reliability of supplying energy to load
points. The islanding mode is a result of faults within the MG or within the upstream network to which it
is connected. In the islanded mode of operation, loads depend only on the available generation of
distributed generation (DG) within the MG [3].

MG systems can be divided into AC and DC bus systems, depending on the type of equipment
connection. A DC micro-grid has several advantages over an AC micro-grid, including higher efficiency [4],
reliability and stability. In addition, easy connection of sources to the DC bus. Controlling a DC micro-grid
is simpler than AC micro-grids, where power is controlled by the DC link voltage. Reactive power causes a
loss of power in the lines, as well as a decrease in the transmission capability, which affects the reliability
and efficiency of the AC system. In addition DC MG uses less stages of power conversion compared to AC
MG, where a variable frequency sources such as wind turbines need AC-DC-AC converter to connect to
AC MG [5].

Figure1 shows a typical configuration of a AC MG [6]. MGs usually include different components such as
PV, wind generator, fuel cell, flywheel, and load. Each energy source is connected to the system through
a power electronics converter. There is a single point of connection to the main grid known as point of
common coupling (PCC).

Fig.1. Example of MG structure.

VII
The implementation of the MG has various distinguished benefits [7-9], to name a few:

The proximity of distributed generators with the loads will decrease the length and frequency of
outages. Hence, an improvement of the power supplied reliability to the customers within the MG can
be felt.

Improvement of network performance parameters such as network loss reduction and voltage
sag management.

The ability to supply critical loads, such as hospitals and public transportation in case of a fault
within the upstream network.

VIII
 Economic advantages obtained by the ability to sell the extra generated energy to the main grid
(liberalization of the electricity market).

Nature-friendly, as RESs reduce carbon emissions.

Providing ancillary services.

However, there are some technical and non-technical challenges related to MGs technology [9, 10], such
as

Their sensitivity to shortage risks, because of their small capacity and irregularity of the power
generated from RESs.

Need for appropriate demand-side management (DSM) schemes to allow users to respond to
network needs.

Low inertia that MG offer which can cause harmful frequency fluctuations in the islanding mode.

The uncertainty associated with load profile and atmospheric conditions.

Considering the stochastic nature of RESs and its impact on the MG operation in islanded mode, these
systems should be combined with an energy storage system (ESS) to provide a stable source of energy
for consumers. There are several types of ESS that can be included in MGs such as batteries, super-
capacitors and flywheels. Batteries store electrical energy in the form of chemical energy. These are
direct current (DC) power supply that requires electronic components to convert stored energy to AC
power. Most batteries consist of bidirectional converters to ensure energy storage and removal [7]. Thus,
energy storage units, which can be charged in the event of increased power and discharge in the event
of a power deficit, help to improve the reliability of MG and stabilize transient voltage and frequency
[11].

In today's world, supplying electrical power with an acceptable level of reliability is one of the main
concerns for all power system operators. This is a result of the growing population, heavy
industrialization and increasing rate of energy consumption. Power system reliability means the
capability of the power system to fulfill its required function under different circumstances.

There are many types of failures and faults that can happen for MG, or any part of it, due to the
lightning, tree contact, animals, vandalism, equipment failure, etc. MG system contains distributed
generators. In addition, transformer, transmission lines and power electronic equipment’s are needed to
connect the system components. When a failure happens, protection system has to isolate the failed
part. Hence, other area of MG may have some problems such as overloading. This may lead to what is
called load redistribution which may cause cascading failures. So when one generator fails, its load
sometimes shifted to the other generators in the system and causes them to be overloaded. It is
important to mention that monitoring the operation of MG and identifying the regions of a system which
are most likely cause the cascading failure can help in stopping the cascaded failures [12].

1
MG protection is one of the technical challenges that face MG implementation. It is essential to protect
the loads, lines and the distributed generations of the MG system. Fast fault detection is necessary for
safe MG operation when disturbance occurs within the main grid.

The protection system has to isolate the MG from the main grid by a semiconductor switch called static
switch [13]. When faults occur within MG, the protection system has to isolate the affected region in
order to eliminate the fault [14].

Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of how the MG protection operates under different types of
the fault will help to build a reliable protection scheme. For this reason, the study of reliability of
protection system is considered as one of the most important factors to assess the ability of the
protection system to achieve its functions.

It is essential to discuss the relay function since it is the main building block in the protection system. For
protective relay, there are two failure modes: relay failure and relay fault. Relay failure means that relay
fails to clear the fault due to a malfunction (i.e. dependability issue). Relay fault means that relay makes
unexpected trip (i.e. security issue) [15].

There are many reliability modeling methods that have been introduced to evaluate the power system
reliability. Markov Reliability Modeling (MRM) is a technique to perform components states of the
system through chains illustrating the transition paths between them [16]. Reliability Block Diagrams
(RBD) method shows how component contributes to the success or failure of the system [17]. Failure
Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is a down-top structural approach used to study the system reliability
using boolean logic [18].

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a top-down method used to study the system reliability by boolean logic. In
this method, an unwanted event, a failure of project goal, is called a top event. Logically splits into
possible causes which are called a basic events and intermediate events. In more detail, these events are
used to identify causes or combinations of causes of the undesired event. The intermediate event is a set
of basic events that are connected by a logic gate. As with other methods, the analysis of fault trees
begins at the conceptual stage and is completed before the system (i.e. design stage) begins to provide
security improvements to the system [19].

Qualitative and quantitative analysis is a branch of reliability analysis that aims to determine how the
system can fail, mean time to the system failure, weak area in the system and the probability of the
system failure [20]. FTA can yield both qualitative and quantitative information about the system which
is considered under the study. However, understanding the relationship between the system
components is required in order to build the FTA which adequately represents the system. Therefore,
building a FTA for electrical power systems needs a thorough understanding of the relationship between
the power system components, the subsystems and the overall system.

This thesis aims to analyze the reliability of DC MG with ring configurations using FTA where the
reliability objective is supporting an AC load. The effect of DC MG energy sources on the reliability
objective will be studied after fault tree for MG is completed, this case study will take into account the
energy transmission by MG cables, FTA will be accomplished using Relyence software [21]. Relyence
software gives a powerful platform for constructing fault tree diagrams, modeling input events, and
performing a variety of calculations to assess the probability of undesired events and the combinations
of contributing factors that would cause those undesired events .The second case study will aim to
assess the reliability of protection scheme for Ring DC MG, there are five functions in the protection
2
system in order to protect distribution generators (i.e. diesel generator protection, wind generator
protection, and PV protection), cable protection and bus-bar protection. The failure of MG protection
with these functions is considered as the undesired state, so any failure of these functions will lead to
the undesired state. This study uses the FTA with Monte Carlo simulation to assess the reliability of this
protection system with these five functions.

1.2 Literature Review

The published literature is rich with studies which are concerned in the reliability analysis of electrical
power systems. In [15], authors used life data analysis to assess the reliability of non-repairable
numerical relay from two different manufacturers. The result showed that life data analysis can be used
to describe the reliability indices for more than one failure mode. The authors limited to study the
reliability of digital relay without discussing the reliability of other protection components such as
current transformer and breaker.

In [22], the authors used the Telcordia calculation method which is a method used for reliability prediction
and FTA to describe the relationship of protective relay security and dependability. The authors of [23]
assess the reliability of switchyard protection scheme using FTA and Monte Carlo simulation. The result
showed that the failure of a circuit breaker has the most influences on reliability. There are some
reliability indices were not discussed, therefore there was a lack of a comprehensive perception of
reliability.
The authors of [24] built a FTA to compare the dependability and security of different transformer and
generator protection schemes with different degrees of redundancy. The dependability means the ability
of relay to trip when there is fault in its zone region, but the security means the ability of relay to never
trip when there is no fault in its zone region. The result showed that the redundancy improved the
system reliability (dependability). However, this study was concerned with the reliability of transformer
and generator protection without considering their reliability effect on the overall system reliability.

The authors of [25] analyzed a radial MG using FTA and Monte Carlo random sampling to model the
system reliability. The results showed how the system reliability is changing with time and the most
critical components in the system. In comparison with this thesis, the author studied the reliability of the
MG in the grid-connected mode.

In [26], the authors studied the reliability of a decentralized MG control architecture, using Hardware-in-
the-Loop (HIL) simulation which is a technique to test the control algorithm and create a virtual
environment in real-time that represents the physical system to be controlled. MRM was used to analyze
the reliability and determine the importance degree of a controller in the centralized and decentralized
architectures. Results showed that the decentralization improves the reliability of MG through a
removed single point of failure in the centralized architecture.

In [27], PTC wind solutions, which is a comprehensive software to manage all data, content,
documentation and processes with fault tree were used to perform the optimization of the reliability of
non-critical load outage in the grid-connected mode. The importance measures such as Risk Reduction,
Risk Achievement, Fussel-Vesely and Criticality were used to determine the most critical components.
Results showed that the transformer has the most criticality importance.

3
In [28], the author used FTA method to assess the reliability of 5 MW wind turbine. Results showed that
the overall reliability is low and gave an indication about the improvement of the maintenance process.
However, the author did not consider the most critical components in the wind turbine. The authors of
[20] performed a qualitative, quantitative and strong-weak correlation analysis of switchgear and its
controller reliability. FTA and Matlab results showed that the controller has the highest failure
probability.

The author of [29] used Matlab-Simulink to clarify the relationship between semiconductor power switch
degradation and MG reliability whereas the component failure like converter affects the MG reliability
level. The result showed that the converter switch degradation affects the SAIDIs (System Average
Interruption Duration Index) reliability indices.

The authors of [30] used FTA to analyze the reliability of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWT). Both
qualitative and quantitative reliability were analyzed based on a set of generic failure information. FOWT
is divided into eight subsystems and fault tree for each subsystem was built and analyzed. The results
showed that the most critical subsystems were the support structure and the hydraulic system.

Reference [31] described the effect of single event upset (SEU), which is a change of a state in device
induced by ionic particle-like (electrons) leading to undesired state or error in device output. The author
studied the impact of SEUs on the protective relay reliability using dependability fault tree for failure
operation and security fault tree for false trip. The results showed that SEUs have slightly affected the
overall protection reliability.

The combination between reliability terms and MG protection play an important role in the
development of MG. Therefore, study of the reliability of protection device behavior under abnormal
operating conditions shows the weak protection regions in the system and their impact on the MG
reliability. The authors of [32] developed Matlab code to study the probability of incorrect protective
action under several operating conditions. Results showed the effect of incorrect protective action on
the MG reliability indices.

In [33], the authors used FTA to analyze the reliability of hybrid renewable energy system. The top event
was RES failure to develop enough amount of energy. Authors studied the effect of wind speed,
temperature and the demand fluctuation on the top event. Result showed that the system is 90%
reliable. However, the paper showed the total failure rate only, this does not give a comprehensive
impression of reliability. Therefore, it did not show the most important component in the system.

In [34], the authors analyzed the reliability of hybrid AC/DC MG using hierarchical reliability modeling.
The hybrid MG was divided into three hierarchical levels. After that, the RBD is used to perform the
relationship between each level components. The results showed that the reliability of hybrid MG
increased with more interlinking converters which control the power flow between the AC and DC
system.

In [35], the authors studied the effect of renewable energy sources on reliability indices using RBD
method and Monte Carlo simulation. The authors compared the reliability indices of MG loads with
respect to the renewable sources losing and their locations. Results showed that the location of
renewable sources will affect the reliability indices of MG loads.

1.3 Objecti ve of the Thesis

4
Literature survey shows that there are different methods such as FTA, RBD and MRM that are proposed
to analyze system reliability in the design stage. Therefore, qualitative and quantitative analysis using
FTA method are done in this thesis. This study aims to analyze the reliability of DC MG with ring
configurations using FTA. The reliability aims to support an AC load. Assess the reliability of DC-MG
protection system. The protection system of DC MG include five sub-systems, each sub-systems are
responsible to protect a certain part of DC MG. these five sub-systems will be performed using FTs, after
FTs for these sub-systems completed, FTA with Monte Carlo simulation will be used to analyze the
reliability for DC MG protection system. Protection system with these five sub-systems is considered as
top event. Thus, any failure of these five subsystems will lead to top event.

5
Chapter Two: Mathematical Formulation for Reliability Analysis and Importance Measure

First, it is important to mention that the type of MG system components will determine the type of
reliability indices used for quantitative analysis. Components, subsystems and the system can be
classified into two types: the elements can be maintained after failing are known as repairable
component and elements cannot be maintained and it will be replaced with another one after its failure
are known as a non-repairable component.

2.1 Quanti tati ve Reliability

For non-repairable, the following quantitative reliability indices can be calculated [36]:

2.1.1 Distributi on Functi on F(t)

The distribution function F(t) also called the (Unreliability) is the probability that item (product or
system) will fail within time interval (0, t], F(t) of an item can be defined by (1)

F(t)=Pr⁡(T≤t)=∫_0^t▒〖f(u)du for t>0〗 (1)

where T is the time to failure, the time to failure is assumed continuously distributed with probability
density function f(t), Pr(T≤ t) is the probability to fail in the time interval (0, t], f(t) is the probability
density function which can be calculated using (2)

f(t)=d/dt F(t)=(lim)┬(∆t→0)⁡〖(Pr⁡(t<T≤t+∆t))/∆t〗 (2)

For non-repairable component, the unreliability is equal to the unavailability Q(t) which is mean the
probability that component is not operating at time t, given that it was functioning at operating time [17]
.

2.1.2 Reliability Functi on R(t)

The reliability function R(t) represents the probability of component or system will not fail in the time
interval (0, t], in other words, the probability that item survives in the time interval (0, t] and is still
functioning at time t. The reliability function of an item can be calculated using (3)

R(t)=1-F(t)=Pr⁡(T>t) for t>0 (3)

where T is the time to failure and Pr(T > t) is the probability to survive in the time interval (0, t].

2.1.3 Failure Rate Functi on z(t

1
The probability that component or system will fail in the time interval (t, t+∆t] given that it is functioning
at time t is defined by (4)

Pr(t<T≤t+∆t∖T>t)=(F(t+∆t)-F(t))/(R(t)) (4)

By dividing this probability by the length of the time interval, ∆t, then take the limit when ∆t goes to
zero, the failure rate function z(t) can be calculated using (5)

z(t)=lim┬(∆t→0)⁡〖(F(t+∆t)-F(t))/(∆t ×R(t))〗=(f(t))/(R(t))
(5)

This implies that when ∆t is small

Pr(t<T≤t+∆t∖T>t)≈z(t).∆t (6)

2.1.4 Mean Time to Failure

The expected time from the item enters service until the first failure is called mean time to failure
(MTTF). MTTF is used to express non-repairable items, while the mean time between failures (MTBF) is
used to express repairable component. The MTTF is defined by (7)

MTTF=∫_0^∞▒R(t)dt (7)

MTBF is used to describe the average time elapsed between failures of a system. The definition of MTBF
depends on the definition of failures, for repairable systems, failures are considered to be out of service
and into a state for repair. The high MTBF means long period for a system to work before failing. The
MTBF is defined by (8)

MTBF=∫_0^∞▒〖R(t)dt=∫_0^∞▒tf(t)dt〗 (8)

MTBF is the sum of MTTF and MTTR (mean time to repair), the mean time to repair is the time needed to
recover failed component. MTTR is a basic measure that express about the maintainability of repairable
component. For non-repairable component, the MTTR equals zero.

2.1.5 The Exponenti al Distributi on

When the item is put into operation at time t = 0. The time to failure T of the item has a probability
density function

f(t)={█(λe^(-λt),t>0,λ>0@0,otherwise)┤ (9)

This probability density function is called the exponential distribution, where f(t) is exponential
distribution and 𝛌 is failure rate. The R(t) and MTTF for exponential distribution component can be
calculated using (10) and (11), respectively.

R(t)=e^(-λt) (10)

MTTF=∫_0^∞▒e^(-λt) dt=1/λ (11)

2.2 Importance Measures

1
The importance measures are used to give an indication about the contribution degree of components
and subsystems to the overall system. In other words, the importance measures are used to show the
relationship between exact event or min cut set into the top event occurrence [37].There are several
methods used to measure the importance degree. The importance of components depends on two
factors: the arrangement of the components inside the system and the reliability of components. This
section explains the importance measures methods [36].

2.2.1 Birnbaum measure

Birnbaum measure (IB(i/t)) measures the rate of change in overall risk resulting from changes in the
probability of an individual basic event. Birnbaum represents the difference between top event
probability (when a component fails) and top event probability (when a component works). The
probability of the top event Q`(t) can be calculated using (12)

Q`(t)=1-∏_(j=1)^k▒[1-Q_i (t)] (12)

where Qi(t) is the failure probability of minimal cut set

Qi (t) =∏_(j∈Ci)▒〖q_i (t)〗 (13)

where qi(t) is the probability of event “i “, the failure probability of a basic event “i” can be calculated
using (14)

〖 q〗_i (t)=1-e^(-λit) (14)

The relative importance measure of component “i” can be calculated using (14)

〖 I〗^B (i/t) =(dQ`(t))/(dq_i (t)) (15)

2.2.2 Criti cality Importance

In this method, criticality importance (CRITi) refers to the probability that the event “i” has occurred and
is definitive to system failure, in other words, the CRITi is the probability that component “i” has caused
system failure. The CRITi can be calculated using (16)

CRIT_i= (dQ`(t))/(dqi(t))×(q_(i ) (t))/(Q`(t))

(16)

2.2.3 Fussel-Vesely Importance

The fusel-vesely importance (FU_VEi) measures the total percentage contribution of cut sets including
the basic event of interest to the overall risk. It represents the probability that the basic event “i” is the
cause of the top event if the top event happens, the range of FU_VEi is from 0 to 1. FU_VEi represents
the fractional contribution of the event “i” with respect to the top event. FU_VEi can be calculated using
(17)

FU_VEi= (q_i (t))/(Q`(t)) (17)

2.2.4 Risk Achievement Worth

The risk achievement worth (RAWi) measures the amount by which the overall risk will increase if the
probability failure of an event was equal to 1 (for example, a component was removed from a service or
2
a failure occurred), the RAW range is ≥1,so it represents the probability of a top event with a basic event
“i” failed divided by the probability of the top event, in other words, RAWi refers to the increase in risk
when an item is assumed to be in the failed state. RAWi can be calculated using (18)

RAWi=(Q`(t/(q_i (t)= 1)))/(Q`(t)) (18)

RAW gives an idea about the impact of risk results from taking the component out of service, but the full
impact may not be caught, i.e. disabling the component for testing and maintenance may increase the
possibility of an event due to the human error.

2.2.5 Risk Reducti on Worth

The risk reduction worth (RRWi) means the decrease in risk when an element is assumed to be perfectly
reliable. In other words, RRWi measures the amount by which the overall risk is reduced if the
probability of failure of the event was 0 (that is, it will never be unsuccessful), the range of the risk
reduction is from 1 to ∞. Mathematically it is the ratio of the probability of a top event to the probability
of a top event when a failure probability of a basic event “i” equal to zero. RRWi can be calculated using
(19)

RRWi =(Q`(t/(q_i (t)= 0)))/(Q`(t)) (19)

3
Chapter Three: MG Protection System and Its Reliability
As shown in Figure 2, the 350 V DC MG consists of distributed generators such as solar panel system,
wind power system, diesel generator, energy storage element such as battery, 500 kW load and a grid-
tied converter, assuming that the AC load is a building. The wind system consists of a 500 kw Permanent
Magnet Synchronous Generator (PMSG) and an AC to DC converter. The photovoltaic consists of 125 kw
DC to DC converter and solar panel with 54.7 V and 5.58 A at maximum power under standard test
condition (STC). The diesel generator consists of three-phase diesel generator with 186 kVA and AC to DC
converter. The energy storage consists of a 96 V, 0.4 kAh battery and 125 kW DC to DC converter.

The proposed protection scheme for DC MG with ring configuration must respond when a fault occurs
within the main grid as well as in the MG. In this thesis, the protection scheme for DC MG with ring
configuration includes five parts: cable protection system, diesel generator protection system, wind
generator protection system, photovoltaic protection system, and bus protection system. The converters
protection are self-protection (power electronics) [38]. Therefore, the protection of converters will not
be considered within the construction of the fault tree. In this thesis, FTs are built for external protection
parts.

Fig.2. DC ring MG protecti on scheme being analyzed for reliability.[39]

3.1 Protecti on System

3.1.1 Cable Protecti on System

The cable protection system consists of the intelligent electronic device (IED) which works as a relay,
current sensor (ACPL-C79A), voltage sensor (ACPL-C87A) and circuit breaker. Each cable has two IED, one
IED at the sending terminal and another one at the receiving terminal. When a fault occurs (pole-pole,
pole-ground fault), the IED will detect the fault in its zone and its direction, since the IED is directional.
After that, the IED will send a signal by communication channel to the IED at the remote terminal. The
fault must be detected by both IED to clear the fault [39].

3.1.2 Diesel Generator Protecti on System

The diesel generator protection system consists of differential relay (87G) which responsible for phase
protection fault. Ground time overcurrent relay (51G) which is responsible about primary protection for
ground fault. Directional ground overcurrent relays (67N) which work as backup protection [40]. Once
the ground relay detects imbalance current, it sends a trip signal for a breaker to open.

3.1.3 Wind Generator Protecti on Syst

1
The PMSG protection consists of the digital relay, current transformer, voltage transformer and breaker.
The digital relay is used to protect PMSG from various possible faults which are likely to occur in PMSG
such as: line to line (L-L) fault, line to ground (L-G) fault and Double Line to Ground fault (L-L-G) [41].

3.1.4 Photovoltaic Protecti on System

The PV protection consists of a digital relay, current transformer, voltage transformer, breaker, surge
protection device (SPD), string diodes (SPR) and DC-disconnector (DCD). The digital relay is responsible
for a pole to pole protection and pole to ground protection, while the direct current section protection is
done by (SPD, SPR, and DCD) for lightning protection and other functions.

3.1.5 Bus bar Protecti on System

To protect the DC bus, differential current protection based on the Kirchhoff current law is used.
Differential current is defined as the reciprocal of the total currents of all CBs connected to the DC bus. If
the DC bus is considered as a node, the differential current is zero at normal condition and for external
fault. However, when a short circuit occurs in the DC bus (internal fault), the differential current is equal
to the short circuit current, so the setting of the pickup current of relay is set to the value less than the
short circuit current on the DC bus [42].

Figure 3 shows an example of fault scenarios in the ring MG system. For a fault occurs at F1, the static
switch opens to isolate the MG, so the MG will operate in the islanded mode. For a fault occurs at F2,
both directional IED will detect the fault, then send a trip signal for CB1 and CB2, so they would open to
clear the fault. For a fault occurs at F3, the wind generator protection will respond to isolate the fault.

Fig.3. External and internal faults scenarios.

3.2 Reliability Protecti on System

There are two failure modes for the protective relay: the relay fails to clear the fault and the relay makes
a false trip. Therefore, the reliability of the protection system must consider these two failure modes.
Since the failure mode will determine the type of data that will be used to assess the component
reliability. If the relay makes false trip (undesired trip), the protection components data will be expressed
in terms of failure rate to assess the reliability. If the relay fails to trip in its zone, components of the
protection system are expressed in terms of unavailability [43].

As shown in Figure 4, the input data for the repairable component is in terms of the failure rate and
mean time to repair. On other words, the input data of repairable component in terms of unavailability.
For the non-repairable component, the input data in terms of failure rate. Expressing the basic event
data in terms of unavailability when the top event of the form system fails to clear fault because the
system fails to clear a fault depends on the components downtime. For the non-repairable component,
the probability failure does not depend on the downtime per failure. Thus, it is important to determine
the type of components for reliability analysis of the protection system.

Fig.4. Eff ect of component type on reliability data

1
Chapter Five: MG Case Studies
The reliability of MG has become very important over the past few years. In addition, there has been
increasing interest to study the reliability of MG protection systems in order to improve its performance.
In this thesis, there are three case studies. The first case study is to evaluate the reliability of DC ring MG
and to study the effect of the failure of various components on AC load delivery, where the effect of DC
MG energy sources on supplying AC load is studied, then the effect of energy sources and MG cables on
AC load delivery are studied. It should be noted that the impact of bus bars on the supply of AC loads is
not considered. The second case study is to assess the reliability of a proposed protection system for DC
ring MG. There are five functions (defined as sub-protection systems) in the protection system of DC ring
MG, in order to protect distribution generators (diesel generator, wind generator, and PV), bus and
cable. The five function are cable protection, diesel generator protection, wind generator protection, PV
protection and bus-bar protection. The failure of MG protection with these five functions is considered
as the top event. Therefore, any failure of these five functions will lead to the undesired state (system
protection fails). FTA is used to evaluate the reliability of this protection system with these five functions.
The third case study is to compare ring and radial configuration of MG system, for the same reliability
objective mentioned in case study one. Exponential distribution and constant failure rates are assumed
the reliability analysis of DC ring MG.

5.1 Case Study One: Reliability Assessment Of MG

The construction of the FT needs to detect the causes of the top event. However, the increase in the size
and complexity of the system leads to some difficulties in the analysis of the FT, the most prominent of
these difficult is to eliminate or reduce the repeated events that causing failure in more than one part of
the system, and these events often appear in systems that have bidirectional path. Because the goal of
building the FT is to study the probability of the top event to occur, the reduction of repeated events
helps to reduce the rate of error in the analysis of the FT [50].

So, reliance software is used to build the fault tree of DC MG showed in figure 6, since energy supply of
the MG AC load depends on cooperative generation of the energy sources (PV system, battery storage
system) and transmission lines, so that these two factors were taken into account. The failure rates for
DC MG basic events shown in Table 5 [25, 45] are used for reliability evaluation of DC MG.

Table 5. Failure rate for basic components per hour.

Basic component Failure rate (𝛌) (Failure / 106 hour)

PV array 4.5662

Converter 14.2694

Breaker 2.283

Battery 4.077

1
Cable 0.58

The fault tree showed in Figure 8 (a), and (b) represents how the energy sources of DC MG effect the AC
load delivery, each energy source has its own converter and breaker for connection to the bus. In
addition, AC load has its own converter and breaker for connection to the bus. The reliability assessment
for this FT does not consider the effect of energy transmission by cables. The FTA of DC MG gives 29 cut
sets with total failure probability for one year equal to 0.139057.

The RAW and RRW for basic events of FT are calculated by (18) and (19). For FT showed in Figure 8 (a)
and (b), the RAW and RRW are shown in Table 6. RAW shows how the failure probability of top event will
increase if the event under consideration will happen. If RAW of the event under consideration is big,
this means that the event effects reliability more than the rest. RRW shows the possibility to improve the
reliability (future reliability improvement). The AC load breaker and its converter are the most important
components that influence the present system reliability. The reliability improvement can do by improve
the AC load converter’s reliability (RRWAC-load converter = 5.693473). Decreasing the unreliability of the
system by improve component reliability for example using the redundancy will increase the reliability of
component, periodic maintenance operations, etc.

Table 6. Importance measures of MG basic events for a period of one year

Basic event RAW RRW

G1 CB event 1.144361 1.002925

G1 DC/DC 1.144361 1.019598

G1 PV event 1.144361 1.005926

G2 CB event 1.144361 1.002925

G2 DC/DC event 1.144361 1.019598

G2 PV event 1.144361 1.005926

G3 Battery event 1.148111 1.005414

G3 CB event 1.148111 1.003001

G3 DC/DC event 1.148111 1.020117

L-CB 7.191290 1.142951

L-DC/AC 7.191290 5.693473

The FT showed in Figure 9 (a), and (b) represents how the energy sources of DC MG effect the AC load
delivery. The FT consists of PV system and battery storage system; besides energy storage system, the
reliability assessment considers cables for energy transmission.
1
 PV system

PV system include two PV array, one of them with 5kw, another one with 10kw. The same failure rate is
assumed for both PV array because their failure mode is assumed to be the same (failure to run). Each
PV array has its own circuit breaker and converter. The generated power is transmitted to the AC load by
cables, there is a possibility of a two-way energy transition with clockwise or counterclockwise (ring
system characteristics). Figure 18 and Figure 19 illustrate the FT of PV system, FTA gives 9 cut sets with
total probability of failure for one year equal to 0.218447 for both PV array.

Fig.18. FT of 5 kw PV array.

Fig.19. FT of 10 kw PV array.

Battery storage system

The battery storage system store energy when generation exceeds consumption and contributes to
energy supply otherwise. The battery is a backup source of energy that is needed in the event of a failure
or insufficient energy generation. Figure 20 illustrate the FT of battery storage system; FTA of battery
storage system gives 6 cut sets with 0.196506 total failure probability.

Fig.20. FT of batt ery storage system

For whole DC ring MG showed in Figure 6, the top event probability equals to 0.158955 for a period of
one year. In other words, the reliability for overall DC ring MG equals to 84%. Table 7 illustrate time-
based results for top event probability.

Table 7. Top event failure probability for different periods of time

Time (hours) Failure Probability

0.000000 0.000000

876.000000 0.014602

1752.000000 0.029437

2628.000000 0.044539

3504.000000 0.059937

4380.000000 0.075648

2
5256.000000 0.091681

6132.000000 0.108037

7008.000000 0.124711

7884.000000 0.141690

8760.000000 0.158955

For FT showed in Figure 9 (a) and (b), the RAW and RRW are shown in Table 8. RAW shows how the
failure probability of top event will increase if the event under consideration will happen. RRW shows
the possibility to improve the reliability (future reliability improvement). The AC load breaker and its
converter are the most important components that influence the present system reliability.

The reliability improvement can do by improve the AC load converter’s reliability (RRWAC-load converter
=3.384082). Decreasing the unreliability of the system by improve component reliability for example
using the redundancy will increase the reliability of component, periodic maintenance operations, etc.

Table 8. RAWs and RRWs of MG basic events for a period of one year
Event/Sub-event RAW RRW

10 kw PV system 1.139305 1.029134

5 kw PV system 1.192501 1.040712

AC load-DC/AC converter 6.291081 3.384082

AC load-CB 6.291081 1.119679

Battery system 1.218687 1.045277

Seg1 1.483476 1.053491

Seg2 1.483476 1.053491

Seg3 1.078785 1.008343

Seg4 1.078785 1.008343

3
Seg5 1.149010 1.015898

Seg6 1.996145 1.116839

5.2 Case Study Two: Reliability of MG Protecti on Scheme

As mention previously for DC ring MG, showed in Figure 3, there are five sub-protection schemes of
protection system that can be implemented using FT, the five sub-protection schemes consist of cable
protection scheme, bus-bar protection scheme, renewable sources protection scheme and diesel
generator protection scheme. In addition, MG converters are self-protection.

The reliability objective in this case study is to assess the ability of MG protection system to perform its
intended functions. If one of these five sub- protection schemes is failed, the overall protection system is
assumed to be in a failed state. It is important to mention that all protection components in this case
study assumed to be non-repairable that means the components will wear out after it fails. The failure of
MG protection with these five sub-protections is considered as the undesired state (top event).

In the protection system, the components influencing the top event include relay, circuit breaker, DC
power, current transformer, etc. The failure rate of these components is shown in Table 9 [31, 51].

Table 9. Basic events for protection scheme components and their failure rate.
Basic event Failure rate 𝛌 (failure /hour e-6)

Intelligent electronic device (IED) 3.425

Current sensor 2

Voltage sensor 1.8

Current transformer (Per phase)2.0547

Voltage transformer 2.0547

Breaker 3.1278

Dc power supply 2.089

Relay 51V 1.3926

Relay 51G 1.3926

Relay 67 1.4155
4
Digital relay 48.65

Communication equipment 8.333

Communication channel 1.3926

FT-MCS is used to assess the reliability of the MG protection system, the fault tree of cable protection
shown in Figure 10 consists of six-line segment protection, cable ‘AB’ is found to have the reliability
distribution shown in Figure 21 (a). Results show that the MTTF for cable ‘AB’ is equal to 24410 hours
which means that the expected first failure for cable ‘AB’ protection will be approximately after 2.8
years. Figure 21(a) describes how the reliability of cable ‘AB’ protection changes over time. The overall
cable protection MTTF is equal to 4068.3 hr. As shown in Figure 21 (b), the strongest and weakest
components in each line segment protection system are

5
Chapter Six: Conclusions
6.1 Conclusions

Over the past years, there has been a great interest in analyzing and studying the reliability of MG.
Moreover, there is a global trend towards renewable energy sources, because of their many advantages.
Perhaps the most prominent of these advantages is to reduce the rate of emissions of harmful gases
resulting from the total dependence on traditional energy sources.

This thesis provides a review of the reliability of the DC ring MG at the design stage, using a FT method.
The aim of reliability is to supply AC load of 5 kW, FT of DC ring MG is accomplished using Relyence
software, where the effect of repeated events resulting from ring-configuration are reduced, thus
reducing the error rate in calculating the reliability of the top event that represents the reliability
objective. FTA of DC ring MG gives unreliability equals 0.139057 for a period of one year, the results
showed that that the top event probability of failure after taking the impact of cables on the reliability
objective became 0.158955. After that, a proposed protection system is used to protect the DC ring MG
from some critical faults then assesses the reliability of the proposed protection system using FTA. The
protection system is divided into five sub-systems which are cable protection, bus-bar protection, diesel
generator protection, wind generator protection and photovoltaic protection.

After that, the reliability of the whole system is studied and the most important components and sub-
systems that effect the reliability are also identified. In addition, the most important elements in some
important regions of the protection system are calculated mathematically using Birnbaum's method.
Since the nature of the equipment has an impact on the types of reliability indices that can be analyzed,
all components in the protection system are assumed to be non-repairable so quantitative reliability
analysis in terms of failure rate can do, because probability failure is not dependent on component
downtime for non-repairable components.

DC ring MG is compared to DC radial MG using FTA, the results show that the unreliability for ring
configuration equals 0.049539, while the unreliability for radial configuration is 0.051857 for ten years.

6.2 Future work

Analysis the reliability of the system using the FT method, taking into consideration the failure caused by
external influences such as weather and temperature fluctuations. In addition, the proposed protection
system, which is analyzed in this work, does not discuss all possible failures, which lead to system failure
such as faulty settings of the relay. Taking these points into account will lead us to a more accurate study
of system reliability. Furthermore, there are many basic events which can divided to their main parts
such as digital relay which consists of a processor, analog input system, digital output system, etc

1
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